That’s not what’s happening in 2024, despite Ionescu’s first appearance on the women’s basketball Olympic team and the release of the second volume of her signature shoe. Rather, compared to the first four seasons of her career, she’s flying under the radar, a mere star to the public rather than a superstar, though her impact metrics are starting to vouch for the opposite.

Ionescu currently ranks first in Positive Residual’s Estimated Contributions metric, or ‘EC,’ ahead of teammate Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, and the rest of the W. For the first time in her career, she is not grading out as a stark negative on defense, while easily soaring to the highest offensive EC number in the database.

In many ways, those numbers match the tape, particularly on defense, where Ionescu has clearly improved from awful to mediocre. But while that is indeed a vital jump for the New York Liberty, that’s not what I’m here to discuss.

I’m here to expand on what I wrote in this mid-season article on Ionescu’s offensive leap for the Libs, which has been the story of their season through 25 games. Here’s the SparkNotes version: After turning in one of the all-time great 3-point seasons by any professional player, shooting 44.8% on 9.6 3PA per 75 possessions, she’s morphed into far more of an offensive initiator in 2024. This is in part out of necessity, with backcourt partners Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton missing significant time this season, and in part because Ionescu is just better at handling the ball.

Her 3-point percentage is down to 35.6% thanks to a mix of natural regression and a weightier offensive load featuring more off-the-dribble attempts, but her two-point percentage is up from 38.3% in 2023 to 49.7% this year. That’s a trade-off New York is willing to make, and a result of stark improvement in her ball-handling skills. She’s patiently waiting out traps, splitting and swerving through hedges, or getting her shoulder into her primary defender. Whether applied by individual defenders or as a team, physicality and pressure is not phasing Ionescu in 2024. She keeps her dribble alive, and all of that is resulting in easier offense for her in the paint, by way of two-point shooting and passing.

It’s not like the 2020 #1 overall pick is a completely different player this year. There are signs of the play-finishing god that helped make the Liberty’s offense unstoppable last season, when she would set a bunch of screens and then come off some more, only for Vandersloot to deliver her the ball for an open three. Ionescu feasted on screen-the-screener actions in 2023, and New York still utilizes those for her in 2024…

Thus, she has become a savior of the dreaded ‘combo guard’ label, often applied to players as a last resort, as a prayer rather than as a positional designation for players missing one crucial skill.

In 2024, Ionescu has clarified the power of the combo guard by toggling between on-ball and off-ball excellence, not just within a season or even a game, but a possession. She doesn’t just have the ability to thrive with or without the ball in her hands, but the ability to blend both of those skill-areas so as to make their borders indistinguishable.

For example, she is one of the most prolific handoff-receivers in the game, as the dribble-handoff is a play-type perfectly suited to her strengths and weaknesses. As an on-ball creator, Ionescu isn’t the twitchiest athlete, missing the blazing first step of some of her contemporaries. However, she overcomes that by tapping into the off-ball movement skills we’ve known she’s had for a long time, the ones that helped produce her all-time 3-point shooting season in 2023.

Here, Jonquel Jones and Ionescu are aiming to set up a flare screen, but the pass goes to Jones which creates some confusion. However, Ionescu seamlessly springs into a handoff, a great cut that leaves defender Lindsay Allen in the dust…

Ionescu has created an advantage off-the-ball, which she then capitalizes on by hesitating around the hedge and whipping a live-dribble feed to Jones on the roll. Now, those are the on-ball skills that have shined for Ionescu this season, she’s just accessing them by way of her work away from the ball. (It should also be noted that the space she created from Allen allowed Jones to slip the screen early and get behind the defense.)

In the absence of elite burst, one of Sabrina’s notable strengths as an athlete is, well, her strength, specifically in her upper body. In 2023, she was one of the elite screen-setting guards in the WNBA, both for her willingness to get physical and her efficacy doing so. As a reward for her efforts, she got plenty of open 3-point looks, here bouncing off Emma Cannon after a bonafide collision like nothing happened:

When she isn’t handling the rock for New York in 2024, she’s still setting many of these screens. ‘Spain’ or ‘Stack’ action is a staple for the Liberty, with Ionescu often setting that back-screen on the roller and popping out to the 3-point line when the opportunity presents itself. On both of the following plays, the defense does well to shut down the initial action, but the ball finds its way into Sabrina’s hands, and guess what attribute shines when she decides to drive to the rim…

That’s right, her strength, as fellow Olympians Jewell Loyd and Kahleah Copper are each introduced to Ionescu’s right shoulder on their ride to the rim. Now, Ionescu isn’t setting hard screens there if she’s setting them at all, but her strength is undoubtedly a main reason she excels in those positions. As she flows from off-ball into on-ball action, the same attribute is creating her value.

Led by Head Coach Sandy Brondello, the New York Liberty insulate Ionescu’s skills perfectly, from general concepts like roster construction and spacing principles to giving their star guard a handful of opportunities each game to pick up easy layups off basic ‘UCLA’ cuts…

I covered this in my last Liberty piece for Swish Theory, but Jones and Breanna Stewart constitute the most skilled front-court in WNBA history possibly, from their versatility on the defensive end to their ability to screen, shoot, and pass on the offensive end. That, as you can see in the above clip, makes up for some of Ionescu’s shortcomings. She doesn’t have to roast her defender off the dribble because she can rely on Jones and Stewart to set good screens and hit her when she makes the proper cuts and relocations.

But what’s made Ionescu a top-flight offensive player in year five of her career, despite the immense talent of her ‘supporting’ cast, is her ability to access advantages, again and again and again. The last play I’ll show is the one most representative of her 2024 season to date, a clutch bucket against Connecticut Sun, the league’s second-best defense.

Connecticut takes away the simple UCLA cut for Ionescu, as the Liberty cycle through the set to get to a Sabrina-JJ handoff. Tyasha Harris does a great job sticking to Ionescu, the Liberty still have nothing. A re-set into a Ionescu-Jones pick-and-roll that doesn’t produce anything, then a seemingly innocuous handoff back to Ionescu with seven on the shot-clock. Harris relaxes for a split-second…she’s dead in the water:

Ionescu and the Liberty flow through a handful of opportunities to create an advantage with their star guard, and it’s the one that is, at the outset, the least threatening that Ionescu capitalizes on. She’s just jogging toward the sideline to retrieve the ball from Thornton, a non-threat off the dribble, but never lets Harris off her hip while waiting for the second defender to clear the area, ultimately finishing with a soft floater on the baseline.

Unlike the man she’s frequently been compared to, Steph Curry, Ionescu’s lineup constructions allow us to claim her as a combo guard. Her backcourt partners in 2024 are either Courtney Vandersloot — the Hall-of-Fame epitome of a pass-first, table-setting point guard — or Leonie Fiebich/Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, two players above six feet tall that nicely fit a ‘3-and-D’ description. That’s a different context than the one Curry has operated throughout his prime, always as the smallest player on the floor, forever a full-time point guard regardless of how often Draymond Green has the ball in his hands.

But it’s not lineup construction that should drive this discussion, it’s looking at how Ionescu creates and maintains advantages regardless of who is on the floor with her. We often discuss the merits of a player’s on-ball and off-ball value separately, but Ionescu makes that impossible. The beauty and efficacy of her offensive game isn’t just all the various things she’s good at, but how they stack on top of each other.

Despite what Positive Residual’s impact metrics say, Sabrina Ionescu probably isn’t the best player in the world right now, and that’s okay. She might just have to settle for being the best combo guard alive, and that is one hell of a player.

The post Sabrina Ionescu Has Reclaimed the Glory of the Combo Guard appeared first on Swish Theory.

New York Liberty. Las Vegas Aces. A’ja Wilson. Breanna Stewart. All-Stars up and down the roster on the grandest stage, the WNBA Finals. Tap in, indeed. 

We have been treated to this matchup five times this season, including the Commissioner’s Cup Finals. The closest game was decided by 11 points. The regular season series was split, two games a piece. This is about as close as it gets, and the blowouts are indicative of one thing:

No matter how great of opposition either team faces, these truly all-time great rosters that can obliterate anyone. 

“What have we witnessed this season that could be predictive of the epic battles ahead?” I am so glad you asked.

Guard Play

Despite the MVPs at the top of the marquee, the depth of stardom goes much further here. There are six former All-Stars across these two backcourts. That is simply astounding. Even better, they all play the game in such a unique way that the mixture makes for artistry on the court. 

Seafoam SZN

Over the four regular-season meetings, Sabrina Ionescu led all players in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Even better, she was brilliantly efficient, shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 52.9 from distance on 8.5 attempts per game. While a polarizing player, it is impossible to argue with that effectiveness. Forget the Kobe comparisons, she is approaching levels of fellow Bay Area great Stephen Curry.  

While she is a dynamic passer, much of that burden has been lifted from her shoulders by Courtney Vandersloot this season. As is commonplace at this point, Sloot led the league in assists for the seventh time in her career. She is an unparalleled floor general who unselfishly bends the surroundings to her will as if she is in fifth gear. 

While not an All-Star, Marine Johannes will be on full display in this series. She is a human highlight reel and casual fans checking in for the Finals will be blown away by some of the things she attempts. 

Blazing Aces

Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum are a three-headed monster that no one can really prepare for. There are only so many guard/wing defenders you can throw on the court at one time without exposing yourself down low to the best player in the world. And that is the Aces problem in an extremely simplified nutshell. 

Young was the leading scorer for the Aces in this season’s series (17.8 points per game) and shot 57.9 percent from distance on 4.8 attempts per game. The evolution of her game in the last two seasons under coach Becky Hammon has been transformational for Vegas. It one of the focal points in this matchup specifically, as she is often where the Liberty are forced to try to hide the weakest defender on the floor. 

Kelsey Plum has not been the same level of supernova this season as the last, but that is not to say she has been less than elite. However, the comparison of stat lines for the season and in this series could end up making or breaking Vegas:

• Season: 18.7 points / 4.5 assists / 2.4 rebounds / 1.1 steals / 47.7/38.9/91.2 shooting splits

• Vs. NYL: 14.3 points / 4.0 assists / 2.3 rebounds / 0.8 steals / 39.3/34.8/100 shooting splits

Simply put, for the Aces to win she needs to be better. Even if better is just taking fewer shots and picking her spots better, that is fine too. So far this postseason, Plum has been better than those efficiency numbers. However, she is also averaging as many assists as turnovers, so something has to give. 

Then there is Chelsea Gray. We have reached a point where “Point Gawd” actually feels like underselling just what Gray is. Perhaps the maker of the toughest shots in the league, Gray is clutch. No moment is too big for her and on any given night she can lead the team in scoring while also dropping 10 dimes a game. No matter what answer you throw in her direction, she changes the questions.  

Defensive Dynamos

Not to focus solely on the offensive side of the ball, these are two of the top three defensive units in the league as well. Both boast a sub-100 defensive rating. Whether it be Betnijah Laney, Jonquel Jones, A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, or Alysha Clark, any of these could be the best defender in this series. 

Clark won Sixth Player of the Year in large part due to the defense she brings to the table. She is the quintessential role player who can also just erase someone on offense and will be tasked with doing just that in this series. 

Laney has been much more than this throughout the postseason. She was arguably the most important player for this team in the last round. However, she will absolutely be thrown on one of the aforementioned three elite guards for Vegas and be tasked with trying to slow them down. 

Beyond the top of the food chain, Kayla Thornton deserves a shout-out here. Long one of the few players for the Wings that knew that side of the ball mattered, Thornton is finally liberated to not be the only great defender on her team. Her reward: A’ja Wilson for 10 to 15 minutes per night. 

The Third MVP

Even beyond the last two players we will talk about, there are other MVP winners on these rosters. Unfortunately, one of them (Candace Parker) only appeared in one meeting this season and is unlikely to be cleared to play in the Finals. It is hard to say she will be missed for Vegas as she has only played 18 games this season. Vegas knows what they are more without her than with her. The other, however, is coming off a blistering hot run in the Semi-Finals. 

Jonquel Jones saw her former team across the court and mercilessly finished them. Over the four games, the former MVP averaged 15 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Importantly, she is the defensive anchor for this team, despite Stewart being named to the All-Defensive First Team and Laney being named to the Second Team. 

If the Liberty are to contain A’ja Wilson, it will come down to the duo of Jones and Stewart. They have made life hard for her during the regular season (relatively). Jones, unlike her frontcourt partner, has not yet won a ring. This will be her third Finals appearance. In 2019, she had an up-and-down series against the Washington Mystics. Last season for the Sun against these Aces, Jones scored in double figures every game but averaged just over eight boards per game. 

Jones left Connecticut for this opportunity, with this group, on this stage. She is thirsty for the peak of her profession and now is the time to shine. In the Commission Cup Finals, she earned MVP honors with 16 points, 15 rebounds, and two blocks. More of that would go a long way. 

Battle of Modern GOATs

We have arrived at the main event. There is no doubt about the fact that A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart are in the midst of careers that will go down as two of the best in league history. 

Between the two of them, they already have three rings, two Finals MVPs, four MVPs, two Defensive Player of the Year awards, and 11 All-WNBA team appearances (counting this year’s yet-to-be-announced honors), among plenty of other accolades. Neither has even turned 30. 

All that being said, the regular season series saw both struggle by their lofty standards. Here are the numbers. 

Wilson:

Season: 22.8 points / 9.5 rebounds / 2.2 blocks / 1.4 steals / 55.7/31.0/81.2 shooting splits

Vs. NYL: 17.3 points / 6.5 rebounds / 1.8 blocks / 0.5 steals / 48.1/0/86.4 shooting splits

Stewart:

Season: 23.0 points / 9.3 rebounds / 1.6 blocks / 1.5 steals / 46.5/35.5/85.1 shooting splits

Vs. LVA: 18.0 points / 7.5 rebounds / 2.3 blocks / 1.8 steals / 35.6/22.2/87.5 shooting splits

Throughout this postseason, they have looked like their normal selves. There is clear reason for the accolades they have earned. If I were to bet, I think both ascend to another level during this series. 

The last time these two met in the Finals, it was all Stewie. She started off the series with a 37-point, 15-rebound, four-block domination and never looked back. Both have grown drastically since then, but Wilson is notably on a whole other level now. Watching them tussle for dominance is what this league has been building to ever since those Bubble Finals. It is what the WNBA is about. Watching the two best players in the league play for the top prize is a dream come true. 

Prediction

This is going to be fun. Both coaches have condensed their rotations thoroughly, Sandy Brondello has played five players in the postseason more than 11 minutes per game. Becky Hammon, six. The chess moves may take them beyond that in this series and that will be fascinating. 

Part of me will be rooting for the Aces. Since getting into the league, A’ja Wilson has been my second favorite player, and watching her continue to rack up the accolades would be wonderful. But this feels like the New York Liberty’s time. They have gelled to perfection as the season has gone along. They beautifully weathered the challenges of the Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun. 

New York Liberty over Las Vegas Aces in five. Sabrina Ionescu Finals MVP. She has been too much of a problem in this matchup and is made for this kind of stage. Ever since the All-Star break she has been a supernova.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. That brings us to the most talked about team from the offseason. Going into last season the New York Liberty were one of the up-and-coming franchises. They made overtures in free agency to some of the top names before landing on a solid team. With some future maybes and a solid core, 2022 was all about improvement. 2023, however, brings title favorite vibes. 

2022 Recap

For a franchise that is not far removed from the absolute bottom of the league, this season was a ton of fun in New York. Despite former All-Star Betnijah Laney being limited to just nine games, New York found success. Under new coach Sandy Brondello the team made it back to the postseason. They even took a game off the defending champion Chicago Sky. 

Even better, the progress was across the roster. Yes, Laney and Sabrina Ionescu had a magnetic connection.

Ionescu, for her part, was exceptional beyond any certain pairing. Her stats jump off the page: 17.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game on 41/33/93 shooting splits. She was the only player in the top 15 of all three major categories and the only one in the top three of two. Sabrina is absolutely the “face of the franchise” level talent that was advertised coming out of college.

The excitement went beyond Ionsecu, though. Han Xu and Marine Johannes returned to the league for their second seasons, both last playing in 2019. Xu was a physical force off the bench. Johannes provided passing wizardry that lit Twitter on fire.  Natasha Howard made her second All-Star appearance and showed what this roster could do with killed size. Stef Dolson provided a varied skillset for a big off the bench and is the dream complementary piece. 

Clearly, the table was set for the next step. Despite a step back for Rookie of the Year Michaela Onyenwere, the vision in New York was clear. They just needed to add the right pieces to take the next step. About that…

Offseason Overview

Out: Rebecca Allen, Crystal Dangerfield, Natasha Howard, Sami Whitcomb, Michaela Onyenwere

In: Kayla Thornton, Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Epiphany Prince, Courtney Vandersloot, Sika Kone, Nyara Sabally

2023 Draft: #30

Usually, I have written an additional section before the offseason moves, but there is too much here to go into. This is a totally different team. So before getting into the three new faces of the franchise, let’s look at the periphery first. 

Natasha Howard is the biggest loss from last season, albeit understandable. To bring in three max contract-level players, something had to give. Howard was an All-Star last season and should be a boon for her new team in Texas. Bec Allen and Sami Whitcomb came into the season as sharpshooters and left dropping around seven percentage points on their previous season’s averages. 

Crystal Dangerfield was a fun reclamation project a season ago, but she was no longer the player who won Rookie of the Year in the bubble. Michaela Onyenwere, who won Rookie of the Year in here own right, took a slight step back and was more of a casualty of cap space in all the movement than anything else. 

Beyond the standout additions, Kayla Thornton should standout more. She already showed that she can be an elite defensive stalwart when surrounded by less-than-stellar talent on that end. Now, with All-Defensive-level teammates, she is going to be a terror. Also, keep an eye on Sika Kone and Nyara Sabally coming in on rookie contracts. Along with DiDi Richards and the aforementioned Ionescu, Xu, and Johannes, there is plenty of inspiring young talent on a star-laden team. 

Stew York

It makes sense to start with the signing that was forecasted a year in advance. Breanna Stewart took a meeting with the Liberty after the 2021 season. The team even brought in one of her best friends Stef Dolson. Ultimately, Stewie decided to return to Seattle for Sue Bird’s final season. 

Now she is here and the New York Liberty are the evolution of the most dangerous skillset alignment in the league. Skilled size was the wave for years in the draft. Pairing Stewart, Dolson, and Jonquel Jones give the team arguably the most in the league. 

Stewart has shown previously the proclivity to get other bigs involved, and that was with more (respectfully) limited offensive players like Ezi Magbegor. Pairing her with a pick-and-pop big like Dolson or an MVP like Jones is going to cause matchup nightmares for anyone they face. Stewart is a smart passer, strong defender, and, obviously, a lethal scorer. 

Pairing Stewart with Ionescu unites two of the most cold-blooded scorers in the league. She, like new teammate Courtney Vandersloot, has won at the highest levels in the league. Stewart will finally be facing single defenders after being one of two lethal offensive players on her team for years. She is going to be unleashed in unprecedented fashion. 

Sun Down

The fact that Jonquel Jones moving to New York is the second biggest story for the franchise in an offseason is no slight on the former Sun. Jones may have had a down year last year but that is only graded on her own high scale. The All-Star averaged 14.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. 

Something with the Sun felt off for much of the season, despite them making the run to the Finals. After emerging as an MVP in the absence of Alyssa Thomas, Jones, and Thomas were never able to fully mesh again. Add in the emergence of Bri Jones and something had to give. JJ forced the issue.

Now, she is playing in a more free-flowing offense. With two of the most exceptional passers in the starting lineup and a fellow MVP in the frontcourt, Jones is going to be able to breathe again. Last season likely taught her how important it would be to fit in alongside other stars. Even if her numbers dip, she is likely to be better than ever. 

Sloot There It Is

Perhaps the most surprising turn of events, Courtney Vandersloot also left her longtime home to put together something special in New York. For many, it was hard to imagine her playing anywhere other than Chicago. With wife Allie Quigley stepping away, though, it became easier for Sloot to move on from the only team she has suited up for in her 12-year career.

Vandersloot has played the last few seasons setting up a collection of All-Stars. She has led the league in assists six times, ending a five-year streak last year. While others are trying to fit in, this is the role Sloot was made for. Both she and Chelsea Gray in Las Vegas have been bandied about as point gods (or gawds, in terms of Gray) and they both have the most talent around them yet.

If you are a passing aficionado, watch Courtney Vandersloot. For the diehards, imagining her mentoring Marine Johannes is tantalizing. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during practice where they attempt to outdo each other with ridiculous dimes. 

Prediction

The hype is real. Finishing the regular season with a top-two seed is the goal given the amalgamation of talent in the Big Apple. They will send at least three representatives to the All-Star Game. I would guess they will have a season like we saw last season from Las Vegas, taking home several awards and the Commissioner’s Cup. While they are not my pick to win it all, they will be in the WNBA Finals.

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