A picture is worth a thousand words, but I will keep it to less than that per picture.

At this point, Anthony Edwards has obliterated the point-of-attack defense for a 2-on-1 situation with Rudy Gobert vs Rui Hachimura, encroaching on the restricted area. The gather has been made, and his momentum is downhill. A moment in time for Ant to make his decision, with several options at his disposal. 

Ant has done so much good work to this point. What originated as a handoff from Gobert out of a sideline inbounds, Ant has already left his immediate defenders Austin Reaves and AD dusted.

(Also wanted to note that Ingles set an off-ball screen that put Reaves a half step or more behind the handoff to begin with, to Ingles’ credit)

But for all intents and purposes, Ant has created a full advantage, overcoming both point-of-attack defenders. Rui steps up in help, as he should.

And that leaves Gobert wide open at the rim. The Wolves are one pass away from an open rim finish, one of the best results attainable on any given possession. Rudy is even starting to point up and call for the lob.

Per NBA.com/stats, Rudy was 73/78 on alley-oop dunk attempts last season, good for a 93.6% completion percentage and 1.87 points per shot (PPS). Pretty good. However, when Rudy was forced to adjust to the pass or was unable to easily and securely dunk it, his alley-oop layup numbers fall off dramatically: 6/14 on alley-oop layup attempts (42.9%, 0.86 PPS), cutting expected points down by over a whole point. 

This could be an easy alley-oop dunk. Does Gobert’s notoriously clumsy hands influence Ant’s decision? With a moment to decide, is there trust for the passer to execute the delivery, and the receiver to cap it off?

What defenders have a path to making any sort of play on the potential lob pass? Both Reaves and Knecht are at a huge size and positioning disadvantage to cover Gobert here, and it would be uncharacteristic for either one of them, so it’s safe to count them out on this play. Otherwise the Lakers would need a spectacular recovery to the rim by AD, who does not look like he’s in any heat seeking missile-style stance to explode back into the play.

Think Giannis recovering to block Ayton’s alley-oop in the 2021 Finals. That level of play is rare. Don’t expect AD to summon that in the first game of a long season, but he is one of the handful of players in the league capable of it. 

Another passing option is the corner.

But seeking corner 3’s when you have a 2-on-1 advantage converging on the rim is not the best process. Having the vision and awareness of an open corner shooter is still ideal here, but it would really have to come down to (situation and) convincing shooting personnel – Randle is the one wide open in the corner in this instance. He shot 35.4% on catch-n-shoot 3-pointers last season – 1.06 PPS. This calculus changes when it’s Donte DiVincenco standing there – 40.7% on catch-n-shoot 3’s for 1.22 PPS, but the decision should still be the rim. 

Rui is the one meeting Ant at the rim. It might not matter who is at the rim, Ant will remain undeterred. 

Ant has already created so much expected value at this point, where his uncontainable athleticism has awarded him three great options: the lob to an open Gobert, his own finish at the rim against a rotating defender, and an open corner catch-n-shoot for Randle. 

Ant ends up loading up and rising around Rui for a finish with the foul, and-1. As a 69% finisher in the restricted area last season (1.38 PPS), it’s hard to blame Ant for taking it himself, and credit must be given for the finish. Also have to note that the extra free throw tacked on probably does not happen with the lob, and Ant carries a healthy free throw rate over from last season (0.325 FTr). But there is a higher chance of missing the field goal compared to a pin-point lob.

The decision might not matter – if the shot misses, it appears likely Rudy can mop up the mess since he is best-positioned for a roll off the rim.

Contingent on misses, this naturally dependent facet of Gobert’s game can help prop up team efficiency during poor shooting stretches. But while Gobert’s putback efficiency from last season was strong (67.5 FG% – 1.35 PPS), it is not as potent as a lob dunk.

At the same time, the potential second shot efficiency on this play should be partially credited to Ant, since the defense was beaten so badly, and they were so far out of position for a defensive rebound as well. In this specific instance with no one else around the basket to contest the board, Rudy could comfortably finish a hypothetical miss. 

Ultimately, Ant gets two points on the play, with a chance at a third (which he got). No need for Gobert’s involvement. But over the course of the season, over the course of a playoff series, or even over the course of an individual game, the accumulation of the quality of decisions add up. The margins stack up, so the process of finding the most optimal shots possession-by-possession has to be a concerted, conscientious effort, and a developed habit over time. 

Orlando is starting to pull away from the Heat in the second half. Anthony Black faces an aggressive Miami point-of-attack defense in this instance. With Paolo releasing freely on the roll, the conventional read is available.

AB’s height gives him the ability to simply dump this pass off over the top of Jimmy and Jaquez to Paolo, giving Paolo a rotating defender to attack, and a numbers-advantage on the weakside to potentially make a pass and keep the defense in rotation. 

Bam is the backline defender responsible here for rotating to Paolo. 

Coming over from guarding Wendell Carter Jr., Bam is just beginning to lean towards Paolo for a routine rotation to the short-roller. 

However, AB zigs here where most would zag. Sensing the momentum of Bam – slight as it is towards Paolo in an entirely valid defensive decision by Bam – AB subverts this reasonable intuitive defensive expectation, and zips a pass into WCJ at the elbow.

While Paolo would have received a 2-on-1 situation with WCJ vs Bam (and possibly a 3-on-2 situation if Highsmith rotates to WCJ in a timely manner), WCJ is now the one receiving the pass and the 2-on-1 scenario vs Bam with Paolo the one cutting to the rim. What’s the difference? 

Per NBA.com/stats, Paolo’s points per shot on cuts was 1.28, while WCJ’s was 1.39, the better bet in a vacuum. Last season, Paolo led Orlando with 10.2 potential assists per game, and WCJ had 2.9, not bad for a center. Point being, no matter who here receives the advantage from Anthony Black out of the pick-n-roll, both players are capable of being the one to make the next pass, or the one to finish at the rim off a cut. It speaks to the versatility of the Magic’s frontcourt and their overall play-making ability.

If a hypothetical interior rotation by Highsmith subsequently occurred and the rim was covered, the Heat’s perimeter rotations would then be tested, as KCP in the corner would be the next conventional open read

and then Harris above-the-break following that.

Since the Heat decided to put two defenders on the ball at the point-of-attack off the jump, this is the defensive path they have chosen for themselves. After Highsmith, Herro would need to be on the way to the corner to KCP, with Jimmy or Jaquez heading to Harris. When the rotations are tight, it’s definitely doable.

But the play-making chain never got that far. It didn’t need to – the dominos quickly fell into what resulted in a jam by Paolo.

Bam was caught off-balance by this alternative chain of advantages. Disoriented for a moment and left scrambling, Adebayo could not catch up on the play, as a quick connective pass by WCJ to Paolo resulted in the secure flush (80/88 on dunks last season – 90.9%, and this one was even two-handed), only desperately contested by Bam.

AB was presented with an obvious choice for the standard play, and thus predictable links in the play-making chain, but he used a little imagination and ingenuity to mix things up. AB successfully getting off the ball vs two defenders and following the natural stem of decisions out of this situation is the perfectly right play to make. Credit to him for creating another way though, puncturing the middle of the floor with the pass and giving WCJ great access to options, where he instantly found Paolo flowing to the rim.

AB’s knowledge of defensive assumptions, his size, vision and manipulation all played a factor in what culminated in a dependable two-handed dunk for the Magic’s best scorer. Pretty good. 

Beginning of the fourth quarter and the Spurs are down by double-digits. While double-digit comebacks are becoming more frequent in today’s league, it is still a steep challenge as less than a quarter of teams successfully overcome that type of deficit. San Antonio will need to make the most out of every offensive possession down the stretch, on top of getting stops, to get back into this one. With 21 seconds on the shot clock, Chris Paul is leading the Spurs into their early offense. Expected points on any given possession fall precipitously every second that ticks off the shot clock, and Paul is looking for an early opportunity to strike. 

For the Spurs’ attack, their fifth player Keldon Johnson, who had inbounded the ball, has yet to even cross half-court, let alone enter this snapshot. Still, there is advantage to be had by getting into this drag screen action quickly; the lowest defender three seconds into this possession is Maxi Kleber on the weakside elbow,

which is not particularly low for a low-man. But that is how far back he was able to get in three seconds. Looking further into the paint as a whole, Maxi’s left foot is the only defensive establishment the Mav’s have in the paint at the moment. No other Maverick is near the paint, and all are even further from the rim. 

Chris Paul is already highly aware of the entire defense’s positioning, and the subtle offensive dynamics in motion. The Mavericks are in the middle of switching the Chris Paul-Jeremy Sochan screen.

Klay was up on the screen initially, so his switch assignment becomes more challenging here on out; he has to catch up to the cutting Sochan while simultaneously closing the pocket pass window. Meanwhile Sochan has the head start, slipping out of this screen and diving into the open waters of the current paint. 

Sochan has only just placed his left foot inside the arc,

but he’s already the most dangerous threat for a rim attempt in this moment. Jeremy has turned his hips out of the screen, and he’s now facing the rim as he makes his cut. Klay, now his primary defender, is positioned on the top-side of Sochan, trailing the cut. In a race to the rim, Sochan will beat Klay, and last season Sochan made 72.7% of his finishes stemming from cuts. Pretty good. 

All Chris Paul has to do now is deliver the ball. A temporary, momentary passing window, and perhaps a tight window for many players, but this is Chris Paul. 

Luka could probably do more here to obstruct the passing window. He knows better. 

The Spurs should already be favored to score this possession, even as soon as this moment, but the play is not over. A quick strike on a leading bounce pass by the pick-n-roll maestro to Sochan would threaten a defensive concession and test the recoverability of the Mavericks’ weakside. Kleber, who is not facing the rim like Sochan, and also does not have momentum towards the rim like Sochan, must catch up in a race to the rim for any chance to thwart the Spurs.

Incredibly, Kleber was able to close the gap and make a spectacular block at the rim. 

After receiving the pass, players in Sochan’s position should understand the speed of recovery required by Kleber here to make a play, as well as the instinctual desperation to catch up to the play, and use that momentum against the late, frenzied rim protector. A simple shot fake for Sochan would do the trick to send Kleber out of the picture and/or send himself to the free throw line. 

In the end, the Spurs were not able to string together enough buckets or stops in this one, falling to Dallas 109-120.

The post NBA Freeze Frame: Volume 1 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Born as a combo forward, Horry channeled, shaped his disruptive energy into a controlled power forward endowed with quick processing ability that shined at providing whatever his teams needed to compensate for what their stars lacked—a terrific recipe for a long and successful career.

However, it isn’t his skillset that made him such an interesting, magnetic player.

With his 7 rings, he is the most winning player of the modern NBA but was never considered a first-tier player throughout his career. This intersection of factors made him a polarizing figure in the collective imagination. On one hand, a segment of fans consider him a legendary player with almost superhuman qualities. On the other one, some just consider him one of the luckiest players ever.

Moreover, Horry forged his legend hitting important shots in crucial moments throughout his whole career. There’s certainly a luck component in his story and all the rhetoric about the clutchness can be cloying. But Horry’s “big shots” tell us a clear thing: He could stay on the floor in the most important possessions of a season. That’s not given, but rather a sign of how he didn’t have major flaws that opponents could exploit and play him off the floor.

So novices and romantics are bewitched by his “clutchness” and swagger. Some viewers discredit and despise him for what he represents in “Ring Culture.” Amid all this noise, Horry the player can become blurry.

What I asked myself was, simply: “what was he like on the floor?”

CRIMSON BLOCK BOB

After a decorated career at Andalusia High School ended with the Naismith Alabama High School Player of the Year award, Robert Horry committed to Alabama and enrolled as a freshman in 1988.

He went through a steady development and by his senior season he was the clear defensive anchor of the team and a solid offensive player, while Latrell Sprewell was the first offensive option.

During his career at Alabama, Horry looked like a prospect who would’ve become a Draft Twitter darling nowadays. He was a lanky, lengthy 6’9/6’10 forward who excelled as a team defender, could check players on the perimeter, and had a solid base of connective passing and shooting. And he looked like a White Men Can’t Jump (that ironically premiered during his senior season and its trailer was shown during the games’ broadcasts) or The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air character with his swagger and that sick fade haircut.

His defensive potential was obvious. He was consistently running up and down the court, defending centers and forwards, pressing full court on smaller players, rotating and deterring shots, flying around sending attempts into the stands. He wasn’t the most refined or the physically strongest defender but his energy and instincts mixed with his anticipation and great hand placement made him an overwhelming defensive presence.

Horry was a true stocks generator: he averaged 3.5 blocks and 1.5 steals during his senior season. Obviously, blocks and steals aren’t everything, but his numbers give an idea of the level of his disruptive defensive nature and overall dynamism. 

For reference, Shaquille O’Neal had 157 blocks in the 91-92 season, while Horry had 121. They were the only players in SEC history to finish a season with at least 100 blocks at the time.

(Yes, that’s Shaquille O’Neal blocked by Robert Horry)

Just for reference to further understand how special these numbers were, he still is Alabama’s all-time leader per career blocks at 286 in 134 games.

However, at Alabama, he was required to do a lot of the post-up stuff that was considered the bread and butter of every respectable power forward at the time. With his thin frame and his relatively weak lower body, this kind of traditional playstyle didn’t suit him.

Also, he wasn’t only a disruptive defensive force, he was also known for his unruly behavior. Indeed, he wasn’t always able to keep his temper in bounds and was prone to excessive fouls and complaints.

The towel thrown to Danny Ainge that marked the end of his brief and forgotten Suns experience or the infamous hip check on Nash (maybe he still had some resentment towards the Suns?) are two clear examples of his excesses on the court. However, maturing he became way more controlled than his early years.

At this point, we had begun to see Horry in his flexible, energetic defense. His offensive role was more unclear and would eventually be defined in the NBA.

HORRY, THE ROCKET

After his Senior season ended with a loss against North Carolina in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, Robert Horry was drafted with the 11th pick in the 1992 draft by the Houston Rockets.

The Rockets were headlined by All-Stars Hakeem Olajuwon and Otis Thorpe and were coming from a chaotic season in which they replaced coach Don Chaney with his assistant and Rockets legend Rudy Tomjanovich.

As a rookie, he immediately claimed the Rockets’ starting small forward spot in place of Buck Johnson who signed with the Washington Bullets as a free agent the previous summer.

Horry clearly was perceived as a defensive-first player early in his professional career. He had pretty simple tasks on offense but was probably lucky to find on his path a coach like Rudy Tomjanovich who believed in his perimeter potential anyway and didn’t try to confine Horry into a more traditional frontcourt role. Tomjanovich played a major role in shaping his offensive game in those early years.

While on defense he had important duties as a free roamer starting with covering the less dangerous forward on the floor, on offense Tomjanovich built for Horry an easier role founded on his energy and dynamism. He was contributing mostly through opportunistic scoring, cutting, and crashing the offensive glass with continuity.

Watching the tape I heard a comment from the broadcaster that expressed efficaciously what was Horry’s role in the Rockets’ offense at the time:

“Every time Olajuwon apparently is in trouble, Robert Horry is his bail-out guy, he’s always moving, slashing to the basket, cutting”

In 1994, Horry still played mostly as a small forward next to Otis Thorpe and Hakeem Olajuwon. Having a 6’9 lengthy defender at small forward alongside two other true big men raised the Rockets’ defensive floor. Indeed, they were second per defensive rating in 1993-94 at 101.4 in the regular season. And if we want to summarize that team, they were a defensive juggernaut almost completely dependent on Olajuwon on offense.

As a sophomore, Horry was already a well-established starter and played 33.8 minutes per game in the playoffs. It’s impressive how he was able to carry the burden of such a large and meaningful role that early in his career. It’s incredibly rare to find a sophomore able to do it on a contender.

A GLIMPSE OF FUTURE

This game-winning shot against the Magic in 1995 is just one of the many clutch shots that created Horry’s legendary fame and this single possession tells us a long story about the 1995 Rockets.

Hakeem Olajuwon, defended by a young Shaquille O’Neal, receives the ball in the low post with a well-spaced offense around him, draws the double-team, and kicks out to Robert Horry on the left wing for the game-winning spot up three.

That was their new reality.

But let’s start from the beginning.

It’s always hard to repeat success after winning a championship and the Rockets learned it in the first half of the 1994-95 season. After being undefeated in the first 9 games of the season, they went 20-16 and realized something wasn’t working anymore. Soon after a bad loss against the Clippers, the worst team in the league, they traded for Clyde Drexler who was on an expiring deal with the Portland Trail Blazers and explicitly expressed his interest to join the Houston Rockets.

On February 14, the Rockets sent Otis Thorpe, Marcelo Nicola, and a first-round pick to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for the 32 years old Clyde Drexler and Tracy Murray.

Drexler is a University of Houston alumn as well as Hakeem Olajuwon, a reunification was strongly desired by the longtime friends.

“I can’t wait for the first game, I really can’t. He’s the best player in the league, and it’s been a dream of ours ever since we left the University of Houston to play together again.”

Clyde Drexler to the Associated Press

Otis Thorpe was a meaningful part of the team that won the ring the season before and drastically changing your structure on the run requires a lot of courage. But that move paid off and put them and Hakeem on another offensive level.

The 3-point line, which was 23 feet 9 inches at its farthest point in ‘93/’94, was moved to 22 feet before the 94/95 season, and this allowed Tomjanovich and his Rockets to became one of the very first teams in NBA history (along with the Magic they faced during those Finals probably) to fully take advantage of three-pointers and not attempt them just as an extemporaneous solution.

They went from a .191 team Three Point Attempt Rate in 1994 to .267 in 1995, an important shift in their shot distribution.

They turned from a team with a traditional, tough, physically imposing playstyle with two bigs to a futuristic setting that allowed them to deploy several 4-shooter lineups around Hakeem Olajuwon.

Horry was the key to this evolution.

At this point, after a couple of seasons with limited attempts and results, he had become a reliable shooter that could knock down enough spot up threes to force defenses to pay attention to him.

Moving on from the 2-big structure and putting Horry at power forward, in a kind of primordial stretch-4 role, increased significantly the Rockets’ offensive ceiling. Otis Thorpe was a great player, an All-Star, but his lack of a long-range shot hurt the spacing and limited their offensive ceiling.

Horry was also crucial because he was an acceptable defender against many power forwards. During the ’95 Playoffs run, he was the primary defender of Charles Barkley, Dennis Rodman, and Horace Grant. Karl Malone was the exception. Against the Jazz, the Rockets were spending other less relevant players like Chucky Brown or Pete Chilcutt on a physical freak like “The Mailman,” while Horry was permitted to float on the other forward with the license to rotate and help at the rim.

The Rockets set the NBA record per attempted and made threes during the 1994-95 season. They attempted 21.4 threes per game and 22.7 per 100 possessions in the Regular Season. These numbers went up during the 1995 Playoffs: they attempted 22.0 threes per game and 23.6 per 100 possessions, making them at a 39.1% rate. These are more threes than what the Spurs attempted in their legendary 2014 run. We have to take into account that the three point line was closer to the rim in 1995 but that’s an incredible accomplishment anyway.

Teams just weren’t structured to cover that much ground defensively. And limit Hakeem Olajuwon with that much space around him was simply impossible. For example, the Spurs were a great defensive team and Robinson was arguably the best player in the league to try to stop them defensively but they were regularly lining up too many big bodies.

Ironically this was probably the most modern version of Robert Horry. At this point of his career, he was an agile help side defender with a 0.423 three point attempt rate. That’s the profile of someone that would thrive in today’s league, a profile with its outline seen in first-year player Taylor Hendricks, for example.

HORRY, THE LAKER

In 1996, Horry became the Rockets’ “sacrificial lamb” to meet Charles Barkley’s request to be traded to Rudy Tomjanovich’s team.

His forgotten experience with the Suns lasted only 32 games and ended with the infamous “Towel-gate” and a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers.

“I hated Danny Ainge, I’m not even gonna lie. I hated him. We beat them so many times when he was in Phoenix when I was with the Rockets. Mario Elie is one of my good friends, and in one of the playoff games, he took the ball out – Danny Ainge was a pitcher – he hit Mario in the face with the ball on purpose.”

Robert Horry on the Big Shot Bob Podcast

The duo composed of Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal was pretty much identical conceptually to the Drexler-Hakeem duo. With Phil Jackson and his triangle, they probably even had a more traditional approach than the ’95 Rockets.

Does this possession remind you of the Olajuwon-Horry synergy?

In addition, Horry was a great performer for the Triangle Offense. The “triple post offense” is a position-less kind of basketball and ideally, every player on the floor should be able to play every fundamental position of the offense.

Horry’s skillset and versatility allowed him to play pretty much in every position of the offensive schemes. He excelled as the “weakside wing” thanks to his cutting and his intuition for offensive rebounds. His shooting and passing were well suited for the Key, Wing, and Top of the Key positions. The Post position generally was occupied by Shaq but he could be a decent performer on the run or when the triangle was changing the side of the court.

An example of the Lakers’ “Triangle” initial setting.

In this kind of offense, it was crucial to be able to throw decent passes to the post player, the vertex of all three of the triangles. Horry was a great entry-passer from every non-post position on the floor. He clearly developed this (once?) fundamental skill throwing thousands of passes to Hakeem Olajuwon.

In his Lakers experience, he wasn’t an actual starter anymore but still generally was part of the closing lineup.

He also proceeded in his transition into a more “traditional” power forward. He was bigger and his upper body looked stronger, though also made him less agile in space. This development was probably intended to make his life easier against the big power forwards of the early 00s.

He had more duties as a rebounder and as a screener; he wasn’t strictly a spot up shooter but he was allowed to put the ball on the floor if needed. That was probably the context where he had the most diversified offensive usage during his career.

Even the stats give us an idea of how his role changed compared to his Rockets seasons. His rebound percentages, his free throw rate, and his stocks percentages all saw a positive trend. What you would expect from a combo forward transitioning to a more strictly big man role.

His rebounding was on full display during his seasons with the Los Angeles Lakers. He used to set strong box-outs, with good technique and crafty use of his elbows on the edge of the rules and was pretty quick to recognize the angle of the ball after the rebound.

The matchup with Chris Webber was emblematic of his type of rebounding. Webber (an awesome, underrated player in my opinion) was more of an athletic rebounder, his box-outs weren’t always on point and Horry’s gave him trouble. In the 2002 Western Conference Finals, Horry averaged 11.1 rebounds per game with a 23% defensive rebound percentage compared to his career playoff average of 16%.

During his Lakers’ tenure, his game was refined from experience while his legs still had fuel left. In the early 00s, with the evidence of his pivotal role along Shaq and Kobe, his incredible ability to fill the gaps left open by the stars of his teams, the real x-factor of his career, became striking.

HORRY, THE SPUR

Robert Horry signed with the San Antonio Spurs in July 2003, at almost 33 years old, on the wane of his career. He couldn’t offer much more than 20 minutes per game consistently, he was slower and mostly a spot-up shooter at that point of his career.

However, he was a perfect piece in Gregg Popovich’s basketball idea, which has always been founded on ball sharing and individual processing, and still managed to have an impactful role for at least further 4 seasons.

“He does everything well. He can defend. He can run the floor. And — as we all know — he can hit big shots. We’re excited to add a player with his skills, experience, and leadership to our team.”

R.C. Buford commenting on Horry signing

From a skillset standpoint he was pretty much always the same but this was probably Horry’s most cerebral version. He made up for his athletic shortcomings with a high level of understanding and anticipation. He rarely committed major mistakes and his execution was almost flawless.

He was fundamental on Popovich’s chessboard to allow him to change identity on the run, going from the bigger starting lineups with two bigs (Nazr Mohammed first and Elson, Oberto later) to the lineups with Duncan at center. 

Ten years apart from that game-winning shot against the Magic, Horry made probably his most iconic shot in Game 5 of the 2005 Finals against the Detroit Pistons, a series-swinging moment that represented the ideal crowning of his career.

That game is a prime example of the late Horry and his overall (inexplicable?) nature.

He struggled defensively for three quarters against Ben and Rasheed Wallace’s physicality and provided a limited offensive contribution. Then he scored a three pointer, suddenly woke up from his torpor, and dominated the 4th quarter through rebounding, shooting, and attacking the always more pressing closeouts.

“He’s just Mr. Intangibles, he’s everywhere and you must pay attention because he keeps things alive under pressure on your offensive board”

Hubie Brown during the broadcast of Game 5 of the 1995 NBA Finals

BIG SHOT BOB, REASON & EMOTION

Trying to capture Robert Horry’s true essence is a challenge that puts a strain on the rational, analytic basketball viewer. His figure goes beyond what can be measured and quantified and can raise questions and doubts about our vision of basketball.

As we saw in this article, the majority of his success can be explained without the need to use vague, mystical terms like “clutchness.” Considering his skillset and his key tactical role, it’s easy to understand why he was so crucial for his teams despite his generally unimpressive raw numbers. And his futuristic ability to fill the gaps of his team (isn’t it what we generally require to power forwards nowadays?) that made him a desirable target for competitive teams completes the big picture here.

However, even the most rational observer can’t ignore the fact that he seemed to have a different drive, a different inner motivation (boosted by his increased relevance on the chessboard?) when the pressure was higher. He apparently had an internal flame that blazed the most whenever the lights shined the brightest, something more appropriate for a psychology essay than a basketball article.

And this part of his figure is probably what made him one of the most legendary, special, and loved “normal” players in NBA history.

The post FILLING GAPS – A Retrospective on Robert Horry appeared first on Swish Theory.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

The post Lessons from the Draft Cycle appeared first on Swish Theory.

The basketball gods must love breakfast tacos. The San Antonio Spurs struck gold in the lottery once again, where their record is somehow even more impressive than in the postseason. 

Victor Wembanyama is a reality-breaking prospect with the potential to do just about anything you could think up. Winning the lottery changed the future of the Spurs in an instant, but with it came the enormous weight of expectation.

The task of building a title contender around the NBA’s next superstar is both an exciting and unpredictable adventure. Nobody like this has ever existed on an NBA floor, there is no playbook for success. The shape this team will ultimately take at its peak is unknown, but one thing is for certain: there is no time to waste.

Many are resistant to the idea of cashing in trade chips to acquire a star, and for good reason! Finding a player on a similar timeline to Vic is important, and every star available on the market is all but aged out of that window or already looking at enormous future salary commitments. These are not the stars you’re looking for. 

Rather than waiting for the right deal to appear down the line, the idea of being aggressive in the 2023 NBA Draft is one worth exploring. The class is loaded with potential playoff performers that would fit in the long-term vision of the franchise from the top of the lottery all the way into the teens, twenties and potentially even into the early second round. 

Few draft classes are fortunate to have this depth of talent, and for a team like San Antonio looking to build through the draft, that depth is a rare opportunity. The night will begin with the Spurs drafting the future face of their franchise, but the proceeding moments may be the perfect time to strike while the iron is hot. 

For the first time since the departure of Kawhi Leonard, the San Antonio Spurs have the juice. How can they use draft night to ensure the party doesn’t meet a similarly ill-fated demise? It all starts with constructing a roster that is befitting of our foundational star. 

In this piece we’ll cover what assets San Antonio has at their disposal as they begin to build around Victor Wembanyama before taking a deeper look at two potential lead guard options in the lottery and the price it could take to move up. Let’s dive in.

The Assets

Dating back to the Kawhi Leonard trade, San Antonio has slowly accumulated tradable assets with future first round picks and young players exceeding their draft position. I’ve divided the existing assets from draft picks to players on contract into similarly valued groups below.

A few points of clarification. 

Zach Collins is good. Yes, the injury concerns are real and he’s only really had half as season as an entrenched starter. Popovich has come out very strongly in favor of Collins manning the five spot, even in the case of winning the lottery. Vic’s camp has stated publicly he sees himself as a forward, trading away the only capable starting center on the roster seems infeasible within that construct.  

Vassell, Sochan, Johnson and Branham all represent effective, cost controlled youth the team will lean on when first building around Wembanyama. All four have proven themselves capable NBA players with meaningful upside, even if they have been over-tasked in recent years.

That last point is worth emphasizing. This team needed a star desperately. The roster was chalk-full of fun complementary young pieces, but the end result was a bunch of talented 20-year-olds being forced to do too much. With Wembanyama’s arrival in San Antonio, a more functional structure should begin to take place. 

It would not be surprising for all four of the above mentioned players to have a more efficient and impactful offensive season. This past season, Keldon Johnson posted a higher usage rate than DeMar DeRozan and Devin Vassell’s usage was higher than Dejounte Murray. Beyond that, the Spurs were the worst team in the league at creating and maintaining advantages.

Both Keldon and Devin are incredibly intriguing long-term pieces, but that is far from ideal given their comparative skillsets.  With each party sliding down a run in the proverbial pecking order (on both ends of the floor), the game should start to become easier.  

In the case of Keldon Johnson, this feels particularly prescient. Keldon’s game begins with ferocious downhill rim pressure. While not always the most efficient scorer, Keldon is at least putting his shoulder into his defender, putting his head down and getting to the rim. 

The presence of Wembanyama, and the natural gravity he will command every time he’s on the court, should open up driving lanes and finishing angles for Keldon that he has yet to experience.  Moving on from Keldon should come with a very real (and immediate) upgrade. 

Regarding the pick from Charlotte, everywhere I look simply refers to it as a lottery protected first round pick. The only hangup? It converts to two seconds if not conveyed this year. 

Charlotte was one of the worst teams in the league last year and their odds of a playoff push are meek at best. That is a fake first, something the team should have no problem moving on from, but may make a difference for a team looking to bolster the appearance of their return in the realm of public opinion. 

The Raptors first will almost surely convey next year, and is the most interesting of the protected picks. The Bulls first has favorable protections as well, but with a longer lead-time the value of that pick is less, but still notable in trade talks. Those two picks, in conjunction with the Charlotte pick, should be seen as the immediately movable assets.

Buying back into the first of a loaded draft class isn’t going to come cheap and with that kind of price the fit needs to be sublime. The right deal could give the Spurs a head start towards building their next dynasty, but could that deal look like? We’ll start at the top.

The Drink Stirrers

The current Spurs roster is littered with youth and talent, but lacks a true initiator on the perimeter. Victor Wembanyama will be a defensive menace and mismatch nightmare the moment he enters the league, but the idea of building an offense around him at this point can only be seen as over-aggressive. Vic is a scorer, and building his footing there is the first order of business.   

Finding a guard that can grow alongside Wemby while capitalizing on the inherent gravity he creates seems like the first place to look. Since the departure of Dejounte Murray (but really Tony Parker if you think about it) the Spurs have lacked a true initiator for their offense. The patented drive and kick offense spent much of the last half-decade dying on the vine due to a lack of on-ball juice. 

Adding Vic as a front-court focal point helps alleviate some of their offensive concerns, but the team will need to find a long-term answer at point guard before it can begin a serious championship push. Rather than forcing the issue with an aging vet or out of position youngster this draft offers a few different solutions to the Spurs lead guard problem, but only if they are willing to pay the price. 

The Prospect: Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson’s potential fit needs little explaining. Amen has the kind of perimeter advantage creation you can’t teach, the inevitable kind where he seemingly teleports into the paint before your very eyes. As a passer, his court awareness and flair for the spectacular make him not only one of the most exhilarating watches of the cycle, but the ideal co-star for Vicor Wembanyama. 

The team has been reported to be highly intrigued by the prospect of drafting Amen, and while winning the lottery makes that more complicated, the very idea is enticing enough to be worth exploring what it could take, and if a deal would be worth the price. 

The Pitch: The Perfect Fit Co-Star 

The case for why to do it is simple: this team needs an injection of perimeter size, athleticism and playmaking. Amen checks all of those boxes, and there is genuine reason to believe San Antonio is the best place to maximize his growth.

With a clear primary option in Wembanyama and complementary spacing galore there is an offensive safety net in place for Amen to gradually grow his game without being overburdened during his development. Regardless of whatever the trade package would be, San Antonio will have a well-spaced floor next season. They just need someone to get them the ball, and Amen is the most creative passing prospect since Lamelo Ball, and honestly there isn’t much competition.

There are concerns about his ability to score efficiently in the halfcourt without the threat of a jumper, but the spacing of a Wemby/Collins front court should help alleviate most of the finishing concerns against size. Now, if only San Antonio had a history of slowing building workable jumpshots. Wait…

Amen Thompson is the best drive and kick point guard prospect in a long time. It doesn’t get better than this. 

Defensively the fit is a positive (and familiar) one. Amen is a remarkable quick-twitch athlete with all of the tools to be an absolute menace for opposing backcourts. He is a more gifted defender than a refined one feasting on highlight-reel steals and breakaway dunks, but his technique when navigating ball screens and general consistency can leave you wanting more. .

His time at OTE was less engaged defensively than you would prefer from a prospect where defensive impact is a potentially large swing skill, but that feels just as indicative of the environment as the prospect. Refining outlier athletic tools and instincts despite a thin frame is a project that sounds incredibly familiar.

Amen Thompson has many of the same qualities that made Dejounte Murray such an impactful defender for San Antonio. His penchant for jumping passing lanes and athletic lunacy can change the course of a game on its own, that energy just needs to be harnessed. 

Dejounte’s ultimate impact was kneecapped by a failure to surround him with adequate defensive talent. Great guard defense cannot create a good defense on its own, much less a great one. With Victor Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan on the roster, Amen would have a much different context, one with the infrastructure to insulate and enhance Amen’s defensive playmaking. 

The Price: Devin Vassell 

Well friends, we’ve made it to the wet blanket portion of the program. By all accounts, the pick used to draft Amen Thompson will come at an exorbitant price. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. 

Moving into the top 4 of this draft would be all but impossible. It would cost assets San Antonio doesn’t have (a young All-Star wing) or the teams owing the picks are not motivated to trade with San Antonio (Houston). Amen would almost certainly need to fall beyond the Rockets at four, and that feels ludicrous given how well he fits with their young core. 

The Harden return, Portland trade rumors and Charlotte’s general unpredictableness muddies the waters just enough for a glimmer of hope to sneak through. Trading into the lottery is a rare occurrence and, in a draft with this talent level, will almost certainly require a combination of players or future picks. 

Getting into the top half of the lottery should Amen begin to slide, namely Detroit or Orlando at 5 and 6, would most likely cost Devin Vassell and potentially some additional sweetening on the fringes. Historically speaking, trading into the top seven of the draft is expensive and generally requires a later first (something San Antonio doesn’t have), or it is part of a larger star trade package. 

That is an enormous price to pay, particularly so given you would have drafted your franchise cornerstone not thirty minutes prior. It would take an incredibly fortunate set of circumstances and an enormous risk from San Antonio, but I think it is something they would have to consider. 

The hardest part about building a genuine contender in the NBA is finding a true-blue second star. Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are incredibly fun and valuable pieces to the team, but that is an enormous expectation to put on two players without reliable tools for creation.

Amen would immediately become the primary creator for this team, and his strengths make the rest of this roster better. We know the team is higher than most on both Thompson twins, and Amen fits like a glove. If you can keep your cache of high-value draft picks intact while adding the perfect point guard for your system and franchise cornerstone, you have to consider that deal. 
Trading Vassell would feel a whole lot like trading team-favorite George Hill back in 2011. An incredibly heavy price to pay in the moment, but one that could look a whole lot smaller in the rear-view mirror.

Ultimately, I highly doubt Amen falls into a “gettable” range for the Spurs. If he did, I would be incredibly tempted to pull the trigger, but dealing Vassell (an ideal spacing wing for the future Spurs) feels like a step too far for the team. If there is a way to get the deal done with a collection of Keldon, Branham and draft capital I would pounce on that in an instant, but even as I type this I can see pigs flying around my office. Sometimes a dream is just a dream.

The Prospect: Anthony Black

Anthony Black entered this season as part of a star-studded Arkansas recruiting class where he was viewed as a defensive-minded guard with real passing chops but limited on-ball value due to his difficulty scoring in the halfcourt. 

He was hardly the headliner of his class, but ended the year as the widely-viewed best prospect on the team and likely Top 10 pick. Without an efficient jumper, Black had to rely on other means for creating efficient offense, and in doing so showed what makes him an intriguing target for San Antonio should they choose to trade up. 

The Pitch: The Versatile Guard of the Future

Anthony Black began the year as the lead guard for the Razorbacks as Nick Smith Jr. recovered from injury. Immediately, his ability to pressure the rim popped. Black is an incredibly bouncy athlete that can rise up and dunk at a moments notice, but it was his craft running the pick and roll that stood out.

Without a workable jumper off the bounce, Black thrived playing with Trevon Brazille operating as a genuine pick and pop threat. He is excellent at using his handle to keep a defender on his back and manipulates both his space and timing to get off quality looks at the hoop.

His touch around the rim was largely solid with some exciting flashes using his floater, making a few ludicrous, heavily contested looks. There were a few clunkers and strange moments, but his overall craft as a finisher was impressive. Coupled with his vision and timing as a passer, Black profiles well as a potential drink-stirrer for the future Spurs.

From a complementary skills perspective, Black is an excellent cutter, where his athleticism really pops. He has a great awareness of the space around him and a knack for finding crevices in a defense. In a future where defensive attention is largely focused on Victor Wembanyama, Black has the creativity and athleticism to punish defenses consistently. 

His jumper was rough this year, but his touch as a finisher and passer are both very good. The form looks uncomfortable now, with a harshly cocked wrist and uneasy energy transfer, but it is far from un-fixable. If the shot comes around, he profiles as a guard who can not only initiate offense but play off of Wembanyama in an equally effective way.

Defensively, Black is just about everything the Spurs value in a guard, yet again in a remarkably familiar sense. He has active hands at all times, blowing up plays and tipping passes despite an average wingspan. His athleticism plays well off-ball jumping passing lanes or as a tertiary rim protector, but more than anything he’s incredibly sound.. 

Black keeps his feet underneath him, is never flustered and even if he’s overmatched physically, is going to find a way to contest your shot no matter what. Dereck White became a fan (and coaching staff) favorite for exactly that brand of hyper-competent defense. He is a glue guy, filling the crevices of your defense. Need someone at the point of attack? No problem. An off-ball shooting specialist? Perfect. A shot-creating off-guard? Ant Black has you covered.

That kind of positional versatility, defensively and (potentially) offensively is incredibly hard to find, and even more valuable when constructing a roster around a singular, universe-engulfing star. Over the course of a decade plus of hopeful contention, the versatility to change your role to fit the current personnel, and excel while doing it, is an invaluable trait. Black addresses the needs of this current roster and has the moldable skillset to continue to fill in the gaps as they appear. 

The Price: Keldon Johnson

The stretch of picks from 7-11 (Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas, Orlando) seems like the natural resting place for Black’s draft stock. It is hard to imagine him falling past 11 at the absolute latest with a very real chance he goes in the top eight. 

Buying a pick in the top ten is a huge ask, and one that is likely to require genuine player compensation to complete. Keldon would appear to carry the most trade value in the open market amongst movable players and his off-ball scoring and energy would be welcome in a number of places in the lottery. 

With San Antonio’s continued belief in big-ball lineups and their incumbent center Zach Collins it feels like a fairly safe assumption the plan is to play Wembanyama at the four going forward. After Jeremy Sochan’s excellent rookie season, it is hard to envision a starting lineup without him in it. The fit there is hopeful, but one that leaves Keldon without a place in the starting lineup.

Does that mean Keldon has to be moved? Certainly not. There is still a meaningful role for Keldon, it just may not be as a starter. That reality, and the value of his declining salary over the next four years, makes him an intriguing trade chip.

A one-for-one deal involving Keldon and Black is something worth considering just on the basis of improved roster context, but it is by no means a home run. Black’s shot from distance is a real question mark that will take multiple seasons to iron out. He is not a lost cause, but the form is far from ideal and is a real hindrance in terms of versatility. 

He tested incredibly well athletically at the combine, but that doesn’t seem to translate as effectively on-ball. His handle is solid and finishing package strong, but there is a lack of undeniability you look for in shot-deficient guards. 

If the cost is purely draft capital, somewhere in the ballpark of the Toronto and Chicago firsts (you can throw in the Charlotte fake first), gambling on a lead ball-handler that is an incredibly solid bet as a connector feels like a smart bet to make. Black would make everyone on this roster better, even if he struggles beyond the arc as a rookie. That improved context is the whole sell, and it makes the idea of moving on from one of the very players he would help feel uninspired.  

The price of two or three protected firsts is nothing to sneeze at, but all three of those picks are incredibly limited in upside and as such are relatively low risk trade tools. Better yet, the draft day deals between OKC, New York, Charlotte and Detroit last year provides a proof of concept for a buy-in. Holding onto your own firsts and Atlanta’s unprotected picks is the priority. These are not the picks to be wringing your hands over. 

Black is largely mocked to go in the top 10 with a bevy of point guard-hungry teams waiting in the heart of the lottery. The odds he falls to a pick that can be acquired with protected future picks feels slim, but with more than a few guard options rising up boards crazier things have happened. Black could prove a worthy gamble, but finding the right price may prove to be a complicated task.

The Wrap

If there is one major weakness on this roster, it is perimeter initiation. Last year, this team was too often stuck behind the eight ball in the half court, hoping for a contested make or defensive lapse.

With Victor Wembanyama, the need to rectify that weakness only intensifies. Getting your star player easy looks in the flow of the offense is a necessity, and  finding a proper lead guard should be at the top of the to-do list this summer. 

Anthony Black represents an intriguing option, but not one without its flaws. His combination of size, athleticism and ball skills is highly converted around the league today for the same reasons he would be a great fit in San Antonio. He would be a meaningful upgrade, but that demand could price him out of San Antonio’s range.

One of Nick Smith Jr, Cason Wallace, Bilal Coulibay and Anthony Black will fall into the late lottery and potentially all the way into the mid teens. Black has had more Top 10 momentum early, but I would prefer Wallace and Smith to Black for the Spurs regardless of price. The immediate fit of a real guard shooter is too enticing, with both options presenting an equal (or greater) ultimate upside, even if it may look a little different. 

Amen Thompson is an entirely different equation as he will almost certainly be drafted before Ant Black, but may be a more sensible option as a trade-up target. The price for Thompson would be steep, but his upper-echelon athleticism and awareness represent an enticing proposition. 

The shot questions are even more severe, but the highs are insurmountably higher. That’s why the thought he even falls out of the top four feels preposterous, an idea clinging to life with Portland Trailblazer workout videos, James Harden’s homesickness and an undying belief in eventual draft night chaos.

It would be an enormous gamble to put together the kind of trade package it will take to draft Amen, even if he were to fall. Moves like that bring a GM rings or a pink slip and you never really know ahead of time. San Antonio will begin the night drafting the new face of their franchise. Finding a proper co-star is no easy task and opportunities wont come along often. Sometimes, the price is worth the pain. 

The post The San Antonio Spurs Have the Juice appeared first on Swish Theory.

At Swish Theory we don’t like to be limited by the actual, as studying the potential is a way to a deeper understanding of the game, as well.

We asked Swish Theory contributors to represent the nine teams with best chance (all 4.5%+) to land the French 19-year-old and make the case that they are the team who deserves him, not just due to lottery odds but due to team infrastructure and Victor’s own interests.

Swish Admin and Editorial Teams then decided who answered best for each of the four questions. And finally, as there are many more prizes than Vic for a rebuilding team in this draft, who each team’s favorite fit among top draft prospects who are not named Wembanyama.

Who do you think made the best case?

Question 1:

What’s your team’s plan for fitting Victor Wembanyama into your basketball roster on day one?

Detroit (Josh A.): 

The Detroit Pistons currently have one of the strongest young cores in all of basketball with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren. Adding Victor Wembanyama to this core would likely make it the strongest in the NBA, as the overall blend of skill sets would have the opportunity to create an elite big four assuming all goes right for the team. Acquiring Wembanyama to be one of two defensive anchors alongside Duren, along with being the top scoring option on offense, sets the team up very well for the future. All four pieces of this hypothetical big four mesh very well together, which is why I believe that this core would contend for championships in the mid to late 2020s if they all stay together.

Wembanyama will step into the NBA with the largest catch radius in the sport, which makes him a direct complement to Cade Cunningham’s passing skill set. Cunningham loves throwing lob passes to his centers, which is why he had so much success with Marvin Bagley at the end of his rookie season. Giving Cunningham the player with the largest lob catch radius in the league would create an unstoppable alley-oop combination, which would be a constant and stable part of the team’s offense. This would likely lead to teams providings lots of weak side help on Wembanyama’s rolls to the basket, where Cunningham can spray skip passes to Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey in the weakside corner and wing. These two would be able to strongly exploit these 2v1 situations, making Detroit one of the more potent offenses in the NBA from the jump.

Victor also pairs very well with Jalen Duren on defense, as the two bigs can run versatile coverages together. One can serve as the primary PNR defender while the other roams around near the basket, and I foresee Victor being the roamer in their early years together. Wembanyama frequently over-fixates on the ball-handler in pick and roll situations, which leads to open roll men more often than you would like. He is able to get away with this now due to his insane combination of length and fluidity, though this is a long term issue that Wembanyama will likely be able to fix. Once he perfects his positioning, Duren and Wembanyama can run many valuable pick and roll coverages, which would bring even more unpredictability to the team’s defense. The rim protection with the two monster shot blockers would be something to behold, and they would likely anchor elite defenses in the future due to the overall value of rim protection and scheme versatility. 

Houston (Neema):

While we are young in Houston, we are in a pivotal time in the franchise. With the hiring of Ime Udoka, as well as having upwards of $45m in cap space, there are multiple routes to success we can have this offseason, with the addition of our new superstar draft pick. The goal is to get past our youth, and build a team sustainable for success, that also amplifies the strengths of our players. 

Being able to slot Victor into our starting lineup allows for some incredible versatility. Having a big-to-big game between Victor and Alperen Sengun, arguably one of the best young centers in the league, opens up plenty for guards like Jalen Green to create on the perimeter and pressure the paint. Playing Victor at the 4, we can have him attack with Alperen playing the high post, and defensively, Victor covers the aerial space that Sengun struggles to protect. Having shooting wings like Jabari Smith, or fastbreak threats like KJ Martin and Tari Eason, Victor can play in a versatile, quick, and dynamic offense that spaces the floor and attacks open spaces. The growth of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun will only help Victor, as they’ll be able to create space for him, and help him be effective on the offensive end without expending too much energy, as his defense, along with the presence of Smith and Eason, will be the anchor for our team.

What is up in the air at the moment is how to consolidate, and who to target in free agency. With the addition of Victor, many free agents may see Houston, with a new culture, budding superstars, and a coach that gets the most out of his players, as a premier landing spot. With contracts like Kevin Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate’s, as well as a healthy amount of draft picks, we can make a trade to bring in another premier piece that amplifies Victor. Being able to get the most out of Victor on the court, while lessening his load to maintain his conditioning is our goal, and we have the pieces and flexibility to make it happen in Houston. 

Spurs (Tyler): 

In the case of San Antonio, there should be very little “fitting in” required. The organization is incredibly familiar with ingratiating future Hall of Fame big men into their roster and creating a plan for steady, healthy development. As reported by LJ Ellis of SpursTalk, the team has already begun preparing for the possibility of winning the lottery (https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-preparing-for-victor-wembanyama/).

The on-court plan begins with playing Victor strictly at the four to begin his career. There is no value in rushing minutes at the five before he is physically and mentally ready to helm that task. The presence of Zach Collins, Charles Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili provide three distinct styles of front court partners who can take on more physical assignments. 

The perimeter talent on the team in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones are all incredibly complementary with essentially no avenue towards taking touches away from Victor. With over $30mm in cap room this off-season, there will be ample opportunity to add veteran guard play and wing defenders. 

This team is flush with scalable, youthful talent, cap space, and the greatest coach in the history of the sport. If you are thinking purely about basketball context, San Antonio is a better fit than meets the eye. There is competent, complementary talent at each position but are lacking a star at the center of their universe. If you want to hit the ground running, while still being the undisputed #1 scoring option, San Antonio is the place to be. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We have one of the most promising passers in the league in LaMelo Ball which makes your life a lot easier on that end. There isn’t anyone in the league who is matching your catch-radius, and LaMelo will really take advantage of this. You could become the most electrifying duo in the league pretty quickly. It’s more fitting the roster around Victor, not the other way around, and we have both major financial flexibility to act on the free agent market and a young core to complement him. Other than that, we have a variety of frontcourt options to put next to you in PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Kai Jones, or JT Thor to complement your skillset as best as possible on both ends.  

You can look at our current mismatch of talent as inconsistent, but I’d say it has Wemby-sized needs, with a versatile big defender and shotmaker as giving us just enough scheme flexibility to let Lamelo be Lamelo, with bit players all around in support. Just imagine a Lamelo/Victor pick and roll – what else do you need? Such an action would be unstoppable year 1, especially given Victor’s increased physicality in the interior. Lamelo can pinpoint Wembanyama’s unreal catch radius at creatively timed moments, and Vic can learn how to find Lamelo in his spots as well.

Blazers (Uri):

Offensively, we don’t see the need to start things slowly. We want to win and Victor’s already proven that he can be the initiator in a high-level offense at Mets 92. Hit the ground running, inverted PnRs with our electric guards (including, Damian f****** Lillard), inducing mismatches on the weak side to initiate a big-big two-man game on the inside. Vic would enhance Jusuf Nurkic’s strengths as a passer and post player while mitigating some of his weaknesses defensively. 

Off the ball, Lillard and Simons demand so much attention that running simple concepts will create a lot of space for Wemby to operate. And Vic’s already demonstrated comfort with more complex ball screen actions in France, so even if the decision-making off the short roll needs improvement, the floor for success is already established in Portland. For as much as other lottery teams have players that can be good in the future, not one of the other teams has the players with the same kind of gravity that ours do.

And on the defensive end, we might have even more fun than on offense. Chauncey is one of the most creative defensive head coaches in the NBA, all he needs is the personnel to apply his concepts. Though the offensive stuff goes viral, it’s the defense that would make things click here in Portland. We see him as a 4 early in his career next to Nurk. The weak side big, swooping in to erase shots and deter would be drivers, roving around and letting his length and instincts take over. 

Magic (RK):

Defining a role to unleash what Victor Wembanyama does best now with the freedom to develop weaknesses into strengths long-term is the primary goal. Asking Victor to impact the game immediately in three ways: Instinctual help-side rim-protection; Unreachable rim-rolling lob threat; Unblockable relocating deep range shooter. Generating clean catch-and-shoot threes is an easy offensive target to hit for such a skilled shooter with as versatile a shot profile as Wembanyama in year one. From standstill to motion threes, Victor has flashed shooting skill in every situation; the team that drafts him should test the limits of his incredible shooting ability. Pick-and-pops, Spain/Ram P&R, Stagger and Elevator Screens are sets that involve Wembanyama as the movement shooter in the action to force the defense into an impossible choice, effective counter options to the traditional pick-and-rolls and handoff sets where Victor rolls to the rim with higher vertical reach on lob threats than anyone else has ever imagined. In post-ups, the footwork, soft touch, and tough shot-making skills are already worth exploring against mismatches and sharpening the sword until every opponent becomes a mismatch.

Victor Wembanyama enters the league as one of most impactful rim-protectors and tough shot-makers the sport of basketball has ever seen. Due to his rare combination of handles, touch, and instinctual feel for the game at his height, Wembanyama’s floor is a league-ready floor-stretching rim-protector. Combining these innate traits to further develop all-around ball skills gives him one of the highest ranges of realistic potential developmental paths any prospect can hope for as an unguardable versatile on-ball scoring engine; a rim-sealing paint-protecting defensive anchor; a one-man wrecking crew on both ends. With Victor’s tough shot-making, deep shooting range, and natural rim-protection instincts being a safe bet to translate to every level of basketball, Rookie Wembanyama’s impact could range anywhere between a long-range sniper defensive anchor like Jaren Jackson Jr. to a tall shot-blocking tough shot-maker in the realm of Rookie Durant, only Victor stands five inches taller than both.

Bending defenses by attacking the paint is the best way to create open looks from deep. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz naturally create C&S 3pt opportunities by each averaging 10+ drives per game, making Orlando one of only four teams to feature three players who drive to the rack that often. Among many reasons to draft Vic, adding Wembanyama’s floor-stretching gravity to the frontcourt perfectly balances any spacing clunkyness in the starting lineup; one couldn’t dream up a better stretch-big threat for kickouts off Paolo faceups, Franz Chicago handoffs, and Fultz P&R snake-dribble drives than Wemby’s unoverthrowable shooting pocket. Life on the court can’t get much easier for Victor Wembanyama than playing off the vision, feel, and playmaking of Paolo, Fultz, Franz, and Cole Anthony, with a strong versatile defense already in place between Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac, maybe the most exciting young roster in the league ready to compete for the foreseeable future.

Pacers (Charlie):

Looking around at the teams in position to secure Wemby, you see a lot of unserious rosters and ownership groups. The top four are a mix of bad rosters, owners unwilling to spend, and terrible vibes. The Pacers aren’t historical big spenders, but have a roster that is one elite piece away from making the playoffs.

A 35-win team adding the best prospect in two decades works well for both sides. Myles Turner could provide some nice frontcourt synergy with Wembanyama, with spacing on the offensive side to allow Vic to work freely inside the arc while providing elite rim protection to lessen the overall defensive load. We’ve seen how huge Jarrett Allen has been for Evan Mobley’s development, allowing him to move between both frontcourt spots instead of playing heavy minutes at the 5.

There is also elite young guard creation present. I don’t have to tell you that a Haliburton-Wembanyama two-man game would be special to watch, but they also have Bennedict Mathurin on the rise as a prolific young wing scorer. The need for Vic to be an instant offensive impact is much lessened by the conditions of the roster. Little of the rotation next year is set in stone, but I can imagine free agents will overlook the franchise location and team pedigree for a chance to play with Tyrese Haliburton and Wemby. Overall, I think the Pacers present the best chance for Wembanyama to play winning basketball before his rookie contract is up, while not taking away from his potential development as an all-around dynamo.

Wizards (Joe):

Wes Unseld’s creativity as a play designer makes Washington one of the more intriguing fits for Wemby, even though I’d imagine many don’t want to see him there. The variety of chin and delay sets Unseld has deployed make Wemby an intriguing schematic fit. Him and Porzingis can both space the floor. There may be some small concerns they get in eachothers’ way, but I actually think Porzingis’ general unwillingness to go inside the arc could be very good for Wemby’s development. He’s going to get the majority of reps attacking inside if he lands in Washington.

Defensively, the fit is absolutely incredible. Porzingis and him could dominate with sheer size and instincts on the interior which makes things easier on the guards and wings on the roster. You could be highly experimental with coverages and this is something Unseld has shown a willingness to do. When you mesh Daniel Gafford into this big man rotation too, it’s just an incredibly effective trio on that end with size and high percentage shot types.

Jazz (AJ):

With the style in which Will Hardy coached his first season in Utah, there’s no doubt that Victor Wembanyama would be a near perfect fit on the Jazz. Hardy frequently used lineups with multiple skilled bigs on the floor at once, and was able to get the most out of them. Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award. Kelly Olynyk set a career high in assists while nearly doing the same in points. Heck, even Luka Samanic, a 6’10 former first round pick who had been in and out of the NBA, had the best stretch of his career playing for Utah at the end of the season. When you look at the success of these 3 players at various talent levels, you can only dream about what the 7’4 ultra-skilled Wemby would look like under Will Hardy. 

Playing next to a more traditional Center like Walker Kessler early on would also be a benefit for Victor. As Vic matures and puts on more muscle there will be plenty opportunity for him to play the 5 more down the line, but early on in his career saving him from having to take on matchups against physical bigs like Nikola Jokic or Steven Adams will make his transition to the NBA a lot easier and potentially help him stay on the floor more. 

Question Winner: Detroit Pistons

Honorable mention: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets

Question 2:

How do you plan to evolve Victor’s game over the long-term on your squad? How much will you develop as an on-ball offensive shotmaker/creator vs. his off-ball skills? What’s your ideal use for him on defense?

Detroit (Josh):

When you combine Wembanyama’s generational size and length with his touch and feel for the game, you begin to realize that Wembanyama is capable of things that nobody else on the court is capable of. In order to properly develop him, I would make sure to mix in the on-ball and off-ball reps while getting him involved in many pick and rolls. Familiarizing Wembanyama with the spacing and court dynamics of NBA high post plays will be valuable for his overall development curve, as he should be able to swiftly learn how to get to his spots against the highest level of competition. There may be some growing pains along the way, but Wembanyama’s combination of pull-up touch and ability to draw contact on jumpers should make him fairly productive on these plays from the second he steps foot on the court. Using him on rolls to the basket will also be a productive form of offense from day one due to his gaudy catch radius on lobs.

Wembanyama’s combo of size and pull-up shooting will give him lots of on-ball gravity when he fully figures out scoring at the NBA level, and he should be able to progress as a passer as he sees more high post looks in the league. He could face double teams fairly early in his career, which will be good for his long run passing development. Wembanyama’s height gives him access to passing windows that some players wish they could access, as he should be able to scan the court from above and deliver high velocity passes to open teammates. Finding a balance between his on-ball scoring reps and using his off-ball gravity will be crucial for his development, and I believe that he could easily find this balance on a team like Detroit. The supporting cast around him meshes well with his skillset, as guys like Jalen Duren can lurk around the dunkers spot while Wembanyama operates from the high post, Jaden Ivey can 45 cut from the wings or curl around for downhill dribble hand-off plays, and Cade Cunningham can find angles to receive the ball and quickly move it to an open play finisher.

Houston (Neema):

With how skilled Victor is, there is no telling what route he can take to be successful. He could become a taller Durant, or a more mobile Giannis with good touch. The goal in Houston, is to increase his strength while not having him put on too much weight, to really lean into his defensive ability. His size, foot speed, and ground coverage would make him an elite roamer in a system that needs good paint protection. Having Tari and Jabari guard the strong side wings, Victor will be able to protect and deny the weak side purely on his presence, and also hide the struggles of Jalen Green and potentially James Harden, should he find his way back to Houston. With Sengun also in the paint, Victor’s ability to protect the rim will be needed, and having him help from the weak-side cuts off half the court for the offense.

Offensively, he can do whatever he wants. Victor would come in being one of the best advantage creators on the team, and probably one of the better shooters. Having him play off Sengun would give the Rockets an unstoppable big-to-big game with the new rendition of the Twin Towers (Hakeem and Ralph Sampson), or having him play two-man with Jalen Green forces teams to either allow Jalen to blow past them, or give Victor the space to get the ball up high and finish at the rim. Offensively, the options are endless, and Victor will not be held back, as we want him to blossom into a player that we can rely on on both ends of the court.

Spurs (Tyler):

Vic is a once in a lifetime talent that breaks our typical framework for archetypes and positionality on the basketball court. Is he a center? Is he a guard? Is he a 7’4 Kevin Durant? When the sky’s the limit, the only mistake you can make is aiming too low. There is no better place for Victor to spread his wings and really see what he could become than San Antonio.

Of course there is a desire to hone Vic’s off-ball scoring, easy buckets are a necessity for any star. That experience should happen through simple repetition. Basketball is a team sport, and Vic is one of the most gifted prospects in its history. Learning to best relocate on the perimeter, crash the offensive glass or attack gaps as a cutter will come with time, given you are playing in a team-oriented offense. Thankfully, that is the only way San Antonio knows how to play.

The goal for Vic is not to create some helio-centric star creator that has the ball every possession, nor is it to pair him with one. He has the touch, coordination, dribble package and high release to be the most dominant scorer in NBA history. Defensively, his ceiling as a roaming event creator is nearly just as high. We see little value in forcing him to guard true centers or defend ball screens constantly. Saving his body for the offensive end, and maximizing his help defense impact, will be paramount.  

Maximizing that growth is the goal, and the only way to do that is to throw the kitchen sink. Pin downs, DHO operation, playing out of the mid post, operating as a roll man or as a handler, attacking shorter defenders in isolation. Everything is worth trying, because everything is possible. Prospects like that don’t come along often, and an organization with the pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs will not take that opportunity lightly. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We already have a good core that will benefit from your strengths as a creator. To start off and make it a bit easier for you, we could use you in a two-man game with LaMelo and steadily increase your on-ball creation usage when you are ready for it. But in the long run, we would strongly encourage you to play a similar role like you did with Metropolitans last season because it would enable us to build our offense around you with smart offball players like Biles Mridges, James Bouknight and Terry Rozier. LaMelo is used to playing all kinds of roles, and great players like you and him normally figure stuff out on the fly pretty quickly.  

On defense, we would like you to act as both an anchor and roamer type, depending on lineups. Playing next to Mark Williams, we would like to give you reps as a roamer, for example. Most of the time, we would put you in a lineup, where you are the anchor next to PJ Washington and “Biles Mridges”, to complement you on that end. 

Mets 92 has had success by simply giving you the ball early and letting you figure it out. We want to scratch whatever your ceiling is for on-ball creation as soon as we can your rookie year, with Lamelo getting you the ball in your actions as you each learn how to play off-ball with the other. On talent alone we should make the playoffs each season, and with that cushion to experiment, Victor will develop new post and iso moves he wouldn’t be able to with other squads. We have the flexibility of timelines: the talent to win now, but youth to experiment for the future.

Blazers (Uri):

We want the ball in Wemby’s hands as early as possible. Reps, reps, reps, and more reps as an initiator. For as polished an offensive prospect he is, our main focus is developing him as a playmaker, utilizing his planetary gravity to make others better. By the end of his rookie contract, we can 1.5:1 or even a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. Several calls to one Bill Walton have already been made.

Off-ball, we see Durant. Sharp cuts and off-ball screens leading to decisive play-making opportunities in the midrange and going downhill. Yes, the shooting is of utmost importance, but in the immediate future we want to take advantage of his touch and physical specs by establishing Victor as a dominant interior presence off the switch.

Defensively, it’ll be a lot of clam chowder, maple bacon donuts, and Nong’s Khao Man Gai. Adding weight and slowly adding strength. We want to calibrate physicality and fluidity, adding muscle without detracting from what makes him such a special off-ball athlete. We’ve seen shades of the ability to absorb contact, we just need to add slightly more volume to that frame to maximize his physical gifts.

Magic (RK):

A 7’5” human being who possesses an 8’ wingspan and the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot a basketball on the move; whose shot release looks as unblockable as Durant’s; whose grab-and-go modern point-center powers ideally fill out into a downhill force only emulated by Giannis; whose defensive motor never shuts off, deterring opponents from even thinking of approaching the paint like prime Dwight, Victor Webmanayam is a living testament to the create-a-player scenarios where a mad scientist takes the best traits of basketball legends, mixes them in a lab, and creates a freestylin’ Frankenstein Monstar.

Strength-building and weight management will be vital Wembanyama’s path to success at the NBA level, molding his body’s strengths and weaknesses to keep up with the grind of an NBA schedule. Putting on too much muscle could reduce his graceful mobility; not enough weight and he’ll be pushed around the paint like a rag doll. Maybe Wemby staying on the slimmer side accentuates his proven mobile skills like Anthony Davis. Even if that reduces his effectiveness defending and scoring out of the post, maybe that’s a worthwhile tradeoff in the long run since he’ll always have the footwork and shooting touch for post moves, doesn’t necessarily specialize in post-up defense, and can focus on being otherwordly in so many other areas. If Wemby’s ideal position from day one is a natural stretch-four help-side rim-protector, Wendell’s reliable two-way play at the 5 offers a strong traditional big man to pair Vic with against bigger frontcourts. Wemby can shift over to the 5 in advantageous matchups as he rounds out into his final NBA form, perhaps opting to put on necessary muscle to bang with the biggest bodies on the low block, like Embiid and Jokic.

In Orlando, Wembanyama has the opportunity to contribute to competitive basketball right away by filling an immediate rim-protecting floor-stretching role without being overtasked with too much of a scoring load in year one. Here, Wemby has a never-ending runway to develop into an on-ball superstar scoring creator as the team has plenty of playmaking, scoring, and defensive fortitude to fill any gaps along the way. As Wembanyama becomes more comfortable scoring in different on-ball playtypes, combining footwork, soft touch, and post moves into a consistent tough shot maker in all one-on-one situations, Victor’s scoring load should increase as long as the scoring stays efficient. Contesting without fouling, creating off the dribble, and making clean rotations are potential hurdles for Wembanyama to clear at the highest level, yet the basketball world may still wind up witnessing one of the most active shot-blockers, tough shot-makers, and lethal three-point snipers to ever play the game. Someone who can literally get his shot off over anything the defense throws at him, flashing scoring ability, rim-protection instincts, and all-around ball skills never seen before in the history of the sport for someone of his height and length, Victor Wembanyama’s development paths feel endless.

Pacers (Charlie):

Defensively, I’d like to see Wemby as the true roamer. With Myles protecting the paint, a lot of the switch responsibilities should fall to Vic. He will also be sorely needed on the glass to augment Turner, who has never been a strong defensive rebounder. His presence as a helping and switch-ready 4 can help mask the deficiencies of a Haliburton/Mathurin-dominated backcourt, though Andrew Nembhard minutes certainly help out. His talents would be wasted as a full-time paint protector, and since Indiana does not have that need, the team has no impetus to put him in a less than ideal defensive position. He can be your Bam Adebayo long-term, there’s no need to ask that of him right out of the gate, even if he is fully capable.

On the offense, I think he can help Indy in a variety of ways. Myles Turner was in the 88th percentile for roll frequency amongst bigs last year, and though solid enough as a roll man he is an equal (if not better) threat as a spacing/pick-and-pop big. Vic should see an equal diet coming off ball screen actions, and has shown the ability to pop as well as he rolls. Unlike Turner, I think he should be given a long leash of self-creation off these rolls and pops. Ideally, a 25-30% share of his offense could come via self-creation early on. Encourage him to face up or attack closeouts on pops. Let him use rolls to establish post position or try to cross the lane looking for shooters/cutters. He can ideally fill a lot of the actions they could run with Sabonis in years past. A splash of 4/5 PNR with Wemby handling or inverted guard screening actions wouldn’t kill them either.

Long-term, if the Pacers intend on keeping Tyrese Haliburton for the long term, they need to place a lot of emphasis on his off-ball game to match what is already elite self-creation skill for a big of his frame/age. A strong off-ball game not only benefits Haliburton and the team, it gives Vic the opportunity to conserve energy for late-game on-ball reps when a 7’4” game-breaking shotmaker is needed.

Wizards (Joe):

Ideally I’d love to run a chin/horns/high post offense with Wemby and Porzingis being interchangeable pieces, though I’d lean towards Porzingis’ usage being more of an outside usage. Washington already has one of the more diverse and well oiled delay packages in the NBA, and I’d continue riding these with the addition of Victor. Using his gravity to get good looks for others, while deploying the likes of Corey Kispert and Bradley Beal as on the move guys, pushing for empty side actions, seems a good strategy to me.

Defensively, I’d leave Porzingis and Gafford on the interior and let Wemby cause havoc with his wingspan and general freakishness. Porzingis will generally play in drop, I’d likely deploy some of the same coverages Ty Lue uses with Zubac. By this I mean potentially ‘hiding’ him on a weaker offensive player and keeping Wemby on the ball, allowing Porzingis to be that weak side rim protector. Mostly, I’m looking to mix up coverages as much as possible.

Jazz (AJ):

To start off we would ease Victor in a mostly off-ball role, with more opportunity and chances with the ball in his hands once he looks like he’s ready for it. I actually think this year’s Lauri Markkanen is one of the closest NBA comps you can come up with in terms of the ideal usage Victor gets in his prime. Vic has more upside as a ball handler and is 4-5 inches taller, but I think the way Utah utilizes Lauri within their offense would be the blueprint for Victor down the line. He has the size/agility combo to be plenty capable creating his shot in isolation or even running occasional P&R, but he’ll be even more dangerous wreaking havoc off the ball as a cutter, ball screener, coming off curl screens, attacking the offensive glass, etc.

Defensively, we’d look to take advantage of Wemby’s generational mobility at his size by playing with another rim protector a majority of the time. This is the strategy Cleveland and Milwakuee have used around Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen and Giannis/Brook Lopez pairings that have led extremely elite defenses, and a Victor/Walker Kessler pairing has an even higher ceiling than either of those duo’s. Vic at the 4 is the ultimate cheat code in the modern NBA, as he can fly all over the floor trying to cause as much havoc as possible while still having rim protection behind him.

Question Winner: San Antonio Spurs

Honorable mention: Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets

Question 3:

Sell me on your team’s long-term plan to not just make the playoffs but also contend?

Detroit (Josh A.):

The vision with Detroit long term goes as follows: an incredibly strong big four with complementary skill sets along with plenty of cap space currently available. Detroit made moves to acquire veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic last season, who can serve as the fifth starter for the time being. Bogdanovic provides the team with elite perimeter shooting and play finishing capabilities, and his wing scoring skill set works very well with the young core. 

Detroit also has the money to sign a strong free agent this offseason. Consider names such as Cam Johnson or P.J. Washington, both tall wing/forward hybrids with valuable skill sets. Cam Johnson is a lights out shooter and would mesh very well with the team’s young core, and P.J. Washington brings some off-ball scoring capabilities on offense with active hands and length on defense. Either player would be very helpful for the Pistons, as they both provide something that the team currently lacks: outside shooting (more so Cam Johnson than P.J. Washington). 

Houston (Neema):

Houston has been at the bottom of the barrel of the league since the departure of James Harden, and the questions about our culture are loud and obvious to the average fan. However, we are taking a turn this season, and looking to right our wrongs from previous years. The hiring of Ime Udoka, a proven coach during his time with the Celtics, will help us get the most of young, improving players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. With $47m in cap space, we can fill the roster with solid, experienced vets to complement our youth, and bring consistency to a lineup that allows their age to show a bit too often. 

Our core 4 youth movement of the aforementioned Green, Sengun and Smith, along with Victor, will be our focus, as each player complements the other on both ends of the court. While it may be a tough year or two to start, we are tired of losing in Houston, and will stop at nothing to get back to our winning ways that made us the 3rd winningest franchise between 2000 and 2020. Developing our youth, adding vets who can get the team right both on and off the court, and hiring personnel that will get the most out of our players, is our goal these next few years, and with Victor, we will only reach that goal faster.

Spurs (Tyler):

The San Antonio Spurs were in perpetual title contention for nearly two full decades, surrounding Tim Duncan with a bevy of different playstyles and roster constructions tailored to their franchise cornerstone. 

Building a contender is about building a cohesive roster with scalable, defensive minded talent. Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins offer a foundation of competitive and complementary talent that will be easily built out over time. Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones will help in creating easier looks for Vic through a combination of floor spacing and steady-handed pick and roll play. 

Most importantly, the Spurs are asset-rich with nothing tied down. We currently own all of our future first round picks with the rights to future firsts from Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, and twice from Atlanta. Building chemistry throughout a roster is important and finding the right context to grow with is a fickle task. Some of those pieces are already in place with the assets needed to make a big move when the time is right. 

Maintaining flexibility is the primary goal, as it is with any long-term enterprise. Things will go wrong along the way, flaws will be addressed. We have the future draft capital, prospects and cap space to address any speed bump along Vic’s journey to the NBA’s Mount Rushmore.

Hornets (Dennis):

This team is going to have a fresh start under new ownership with you as the franchise cornerstone. With you, LaMelo and the young core, we are just missing 1–2 pieces to make a deep run in the east in the foreseeable future. As I said before, we have pretty clean books from a roster building perspective, as well as a talented core to set up the future. The primary goal is developing the young core and adding additional pieces in free agency. We aren’t a free agent destination, but the chance to play alongside you and LaMelo could change that to an extent. 

It’s well known among coaches and front office staff around the league that Charlotte is among the league’s lowest spenders and I expect that to change under the new ownership group. We will turn every stone around and are looking to improve the franchise as a whole. 

Blazers (Uri):

Look at Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs and Luka with the Mavs. Conversely, look at the Tim Duncan situation when he was drafted number one by a Spurs team that already had HoFer David Robinson. Teams that take on a star rookie without the assets around him to build a competitive ballclub tend to whither under the pressure of that ticking clock. Any team with Damian Lillard and our amount of perimeter scoring will compete for the playoffs. In terms of contention, we know our roster needs improving, but we have more tools and a much more malleable squad than others would have you to believe. 

This offseason, we have two trade exceptions totalling $10.5 million, the full Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2m), and the full bi-annual exception ($4.5m). Not to mention our current cap progressions don’t really tell the story of our books. Jerami Grant is a free agent, Cam Reddish is a sign-and-trade waiting to happen, and the only cap hold we 100% know we’re interested in resigning is Matisse Thybulle (not to mention the not-so-secret secret that we can always hit eject on Simons along with our trade exceptions to bring in an even more impactful player). We’re in a position to win around the edges, and with how wide open the West is, we’re the only team that can feasibly compete for a deep playoff run while Wemby’s still on his rookie deal.

Magic (RK):

Thanks to the team-building process of front office execs Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, Orlando has sought out, targeted, and recruited good all-around basketball players who look for the open man, make the best decision for the team, and play hard on both ends. Behind the dual-wielding 6’10” drive-and-kick scoring hub on the wing in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the steady hand of pace-pushing playmaking point guards in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, the strong sturdy 3&D play of Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, the explosive energy of a second unit led by Jalen Suggs and the intriguing lengthy upside of Bol Bol and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando may already have the brightest young core in the NBA full of two-way team-first connector prospects at every position.

This season, Orlando made the 3rd biggest leap in wins, racking up 12 more W’s than the year before. After a 5-16 start without their starting point, Markelle Fultz returned to the lineup, playing in every game since. Over the next 58 games with Fultz at the helm, the Magic posted a .500 record, ranking 7th in overall Defense by D-RTG and 6th in drawing fouls as a team via FT Rate. The Magic being so proficient in paint touches, drives, and drawing fouls between the creation of 3+ players all under 25 years old are bright red flashing lights signaling a sustainable scoring system. Orlando’s length, energy, and rotations already doing the little things necessary to rank highly as an elite defense when the roster is relatively healthy is a positive sign that player-favorite Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s message to play hard and hustle every play is hitting home.

The biggest magic trick Orlando pulled off this season is putting out the team’s most watchable product on the floor in a decade, with non-stop competitive energy and an open up-and-down style of play, competing for a playoff spot up until the final week, all while maintaining one more shot in the lottery before “being too good to be bad”. The Magic somehow entertained fans for the full season while ending up with the 6th-best overall lottery odds and a 9% chance at winning the lottery outright for the draft rights to the most dynamic rim-protecting and tough shot-making scoring prospect the sport has seen since Kevin Durant, if not ever. Orlando has enough depth of competitive young talent to project a perennial playoff team going forward no matter who the team drafts this summer, with possibly two lottery picks on the way, and the cap flexibility to pursue at least one max-salary star in free agency. Imagining the overwhelming length, defensive impact, and scoring versatility in a lineup featuring Fultz, Franz, Paolo, Wembanyama and Isaac, Suggs, Cole, or Wendell is scary to think about.

Pacers (Charlie):

If you are adding the approximately 4-year/$42M deal that Vic gets to the salary sheet, the Pacers will be guaranteed paying 5 total players in 2024: Tyrese, Vic, Myles, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard. Assuming Haliburton is paid the rookie max a la Ja Morant, they’re looking at a roughly 5-year, $200M commitment. That leaves them paying roughly $75M for the core of the roster after this season, one in which they could probably still make some noise with Buddy Hield in the fold and some decent role guys.

Indiana can decline options on Daniel Theis, Isaiah Jackson, and Chris Duarte worth a total of 19.9M to end up with nearly $50M in cap space, more than enough to add a max contract to the fold. With the 26th, 29th, and a couple of seconds in this year’s draft, it’s reasonable to say the Pacers will add 1-2 more potential cheap young contributors, who can fill in at the margins or form part of a trade package. Extensions loom large as ever, but the 2024 free-agent class is loaded with All-Star caliber wings that Indiana can take a stab at. We saw with the DeAndre Ayton RFA offer that the front office is at least somewhat serious about spending to capitalize on their young talent.

The Pacers could maneuver their way into contention by 2026, when Wembanyama will be extension ready, by capitalizing on the draft this year and making shrewd decisions to try and land the big fish in the 2024 offseason. Even if they don’t, $40-50M spent on the right role players to augment a Haliburton/Wemby/Turner core could make them a tough matchup in the East. If signings or later draft picks break their way, who’s to say this isn’t the right time for the Pacers?

Wizards (Joe):

The elephant in the room is the Bradley Beal contract, it’s untradeable. He however is still pretty good and I think in the short-term, a playoff series win isn’t off the table. It may sound crazy, but the sheer size of the lineup with Kuzma, Wemby and Porzingis is going to be very unique in the Western Conference. Add that to the fact the likes of Delon Wright and Corey Kispert are pretty scalable and easy-fitting, pushing for playoff relevance isn’t completely ouf of the question.

Down the line, being aggressive in trades and playing the margins is a pivotal part of the process.

Jazz (AJ):

I think Victor’s rookie season we would likely make the postseason just off sheer talent, but it would largely be a feel it out year to see what type of roster and personnel fit the best around Vic. Is the gigantic Lauri/Victor/Kessler front court tenable long term? If not, which one out of Lauri or Kessler is the better fit and which one should look to be traded? Does Vic need a strong playmaker next to him to thrive, or can he be just as productive with a scoring PG like Colin Sexton? 

These are the type of questions we’d be focused on answering in Victor’s rookie season. Then from there, we can execute getting the correct players around him using Utah’s massive collection of assets. Between the approximately 14 first round picks the Jazz own from now to 2029 in addition to good/young players on attractive contracts (Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri, Kessler) we’d have plenty of assets to build the ideal supporting cast to supplement Victor and whoever we want to keep in the core next to him. 

Question Winner: Orlando Magic

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Question 4:

How do you see me fitting into your franchise off the court? What can you offer that others cannot?

Detroit (Josh):

Detroit is often looked down upon by NBA fans, but the city and franchise has a distinct long-term culture that Wembanyama could fit into. The team has always been known as a “take care of business” type of franchise, as teams like the Bad Boys and the mid 2000s Pistons were always some of the hardest working teams in the league. Young players like Cade Cunningham have publicly adopted this mindset, and Wembanyama could be next in line to fit into the team’s culture. Basketball is in a good place when the Motor City is fighting for the top, and a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama could propel the core to contention within his first few years with the team.

Houston (Neema):

*Cue Tops Drop by Fat Pat*

No city in the bottom of the lottery has more culture than Houston. Let’s start with the most diverse city in the United States. Candy paint lowriders, taquerias on every corner, a beautiful skyline, and a city that loves every athlete that walks through the door. In the heart of Houston, you will find yourself a home that not only accepts you, but wants you to become part of the culture. 

Do you miss France? French is the 6th most spoken language in Houston, with plenty of french restaurants scattering the city, and you can catch a direct flight to Paris whenever you like. Like the beach? Take a drive down to Galveston, or a joyride to South Padre over the weekend. Want the big city feel, but like your space? Houston is the 4th most populated city in the US, while also being #1 in area, so there’s nothing but space for you. More of a party guy? Welcome to the strip club capital of the United States. Big fan of outer space? Check out Space Center Houston, and see yourself among the stars. Like rap music? Find yourself hanging out with legends like Bun B, Slim Thug and Maxo Kream as they are a huge part of the culture in Houston. And don’t forget the best part: NO. STATE. TAX. The millions you’ll be making will go straight to your pocket, giving little to the government to mooch off of you, as you find yourself making more and more money in the best city in Texas.

Not to mention our long standing history of elite bigs, Houston is THE home for big men. With players like Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, and the legend Hakeem Olajuwon walking through the city, Victor Wembanyama will see his name hung up with some of the best bigs in NBA history. Everything is bigger down here, and adding a 7’5” superstar only proves that fact. 

Spurs (Tyler):

The question is this Victor, what kind of star do you want to be?

The city of San Antonio, and as a result the Spurs organization, is built on a singular foundation: family. This is a city proud of its culture and unchanging in its values. San Antonio is the largest city in America to be predominantly hispanic and you feel that everywhere you look. This is the Mexican-American city. 

I would imagine the folks in Houston told you they have great tacos.

Forgive them. They know not of what they speak.

San Antonio is a place where you will be beloved the moment you walk through the door, but more than that you will be respected. This isn’t some glitzy city concerned with celebrity or fame, you will have the freedom to live as normal of a life as you want. This is an educated basketball fanbase that understands the price of excellence. If you show up, they will love you until the end of time.

The question is not whether the city will turn on you when times get tough, it is the number of murals you would like to be made in your honor. 7? 13? 23? We’ll make it happen. 

The truth is, you will be an earth-shattering star wherever you go, your city will not determine that. If your goal is to become an actor, it might not be a great fit. If your aims are something higher than mere celebrity, but rather excellence and sustainability, there is no better place. Building a dynasty takes a remarkable amount of support and no other city knows better, we’ve done it before. La familia isn’t going anywhere, thick or thin. You won’t find that anywhere else. 

Hornets (Dennis):

I’m sure you’ve already spoken with Tony *Parker* our Nic *Batum* about our franchise and what the city has to offer. You can become the face of the city and Charlotte Hornets basketball pretty quickly.

Want to be the next goat? Consult with the current one. Want to hang out at one of our thousands of breweries to debrief from a tough-fought game? We got you. Hikes? Beaches? We’ll remind you of the French countryside if you let us (and squint).

Blazers (Uri):

We know there’s nothing Vic likes to do more after a long day of eviscerating the competition than curling up with a good book. Few places are better to call home than the PNW. With the tip-tap of rain on the roof, beautiful forests, and the silhouette of mountains in the background? Are you kidding me? Sounds like heaven. But, if he wants to hit the town in search of fine art, underground jazz music, or a refreshing seasonal IPA (in a coupla years), Portland has all of that and then some.

There’s just something about Portland and Vic that feels kindred. Portland is a multicultural urban hub in a quiet, beautiful state. Wemby’s the best prospect since Lebron but by all accounts is more of a gentle giant (off the court) than a Shaq. While the media circus will follow Vic wherever he goes, the opportunity to return to Portland and be the friendly neighborhood Wemby will do wonders to calm the immense pressure placed on him to start his career.

Ultimately, with a recent change in ownership, head coach, and GM, we see Victor as a sign of the times in Portland. Bringing in Vic as the totem that times they are a’changing for our franchise. He stabilizes things off the court as much as he does on it. For as much as the fan base will love him wherever he goes, he’ll always be compared to Hakeem in Houston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Zeke in Detroit, or Reggie in Indiana. With all the newness in Portland, he’ll have a chance to really grow along with the team as he helps define the Golden Era of Blazers basketball.

Magic (RK):

Sunshine and sunshowers. Freshly squeezed orange juice. No state income tax. Ever hear of the most magical place on earth? Orlando has warmer weather and more access to things to do than most NBA cities. Players make millions extra in salary by saving on income tax. The city is an hour drive to some of the most heavenly beaches on the planet, while being far enough inland to generally be safe from storms on the coast.

Between Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, and Paolo Banchero, Orlando only knows how to drop hits with the number one overall pick, even trading for Penny Hardaway the one year they shipped the pick out. (Chris Webber) Magic fans who have been loyal through the last decade that national media members treat as a laughing stock are die-hard supporters, yet none of the off-court drama exists here compared to larger market fan bases with media outlets adding unnecessary pressure or being overly negative. There isn’t a spotlight on every failure in Orlando compared to L.A. or Phili. Players have the freedom to make mistakes here and learn from them with long-term positive support to develop freely.

From upscale bars and nice restaurants to dive bars and sketchy clubs, Orlando offers a downtown atmosphere with suburban options, filled with museums, lake walks and theme parks as far as the eye can see. There’s always something going on twenty minutes away whether you’re raising a family or living single going out on the town. Be a tourist one day, a local bar-hopper the next day, and a beach bum the day after that. Live whatever life you want here. There’s a reason the first thing players say after winning the championship is “I’m going to Disney World.”

Pacers (Charlie):

Indiana is the basketball state. It doesn’t have the glamour of New York or LA, or the up-and-coming appeal of other NBA cities, but the culture surrounding the game is as good as you can hope to get. If he’s an outdoorsy kind of guy, they have some nice lakes. If he’s a city guy, Indianapolis is indeed a city, and Chicago is also close by. It’s not as appealing as the on-court fit, but he will have options for what kind of lifestyle he wants to live, whether he chooses intense urban sprawl or open skies.

Wizards (Joe):

Victor is an intelligent guy, and he knows that coming to DC would help elevate his profile not just as a basketball player but as an ambassador for the sport at the US capitol. It’s a short trip to the White House when we win the championship, and will give you plenty of avenues for expanding your brand however you’d want, in a central, big market location. Can any of the other teams in the lottery offer you that? I don’t think so.

We have been dreaming of a star of your caliber to arrive to tap into our basketball culture as a city, with grassroots hoops all around as well as front row season tickets to the Mystics. We’re a quick trip up or down the coast to whatever vacation location you desire, and as quick as you’ll find of a commute back to France. Make DC what you want of it!

Jazz (AJ):

One of the benefits of the Jazz organization is we’ve had a lot of success with foreign players and keeping them happy in recent history. The best player on the team currently is the Finnish Lauri Markkanen, and before him Rudy Gobert, who you know personally, was one of the most iconic Jazz players in franchise history and embraced by the fan base. Outside of basketball Salt Lake City might not be the most exciting or action packed NBA city, but the state of Utah is beautiful and there’s something to be said for a lack of distractions off the court. 

Question Winner: Houston Rockets

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

Question 5:

Give me a player besides Vic in the projected top of draft who you think would be an excellent fit on your team in the case of missing on him?

Detroit (Josh):

If the Pistons are not lucky enough to walk away from the draft with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson would obviously be the player the team should take if they end up with the second overall pick. Lots of Pistons fans scoff at the idea of running three guards together, but I believe that the offensive potential that a trio of Cunningham, Henderson, and Ivey has is unquantifiable. The halfcourt offense would be strong, as the team would then have three players who can create an advantage and send the defense into a scramble. The core also has the requisite blend of feel and athleticism to take advantage of these scrambling defenses, as all of these players project to be good cutters with different tools to punish the opposing defense. Guard to guard hand-off plays would be incredibly effective with this core as well, as allowing one of Henderson or Ivey to get downhill with Cade Cunningham finding open pockets in the defense seems like an absolute nightmare to guard.

The transition offense would be elite with this trio as well, as Cunningham can loft outlet passes with quarterback-esque ball placement to either Jaden Ivey or Scoot Henderson. Both of these players are elite open court athletes, and countering both of them with a head of steam feels like an impossible task for opposing transition defenders. This team should be able to run the court all game long, controlling the game’s tempo and making up for many defensive concerns.

Speaking of defense, this is where lots of Pistons fans become uncomfortable with Henderson’s fit into the team’s current core. I personally believe that the defense would be fine if the team prioritizes acquiring more rim protection from their power forward spot, as the team possesses a true anchor in Jalen Duren. Scoot Henderson also projects to be a positive guard defender due to his insane combination of strength and lateral quickness, though he currently has a ways to go as an off-ball defender. With the ball-handling duties being split among three players, all three will likely be able to fully buy-in on the defensive end of the court, and with Jalen Duren anchoring the unit, the team should be a functional half court defense with the upside to surprise some people on that end.

Houston (Neema):

If you read my previous answers, you’ll notice a huge lack of point guards being talked about. While Houston has some great pieces at the 2-5 positions, having Kevin Porter Jr play point guard has not worked out, and the team should be looking elsewhere. Luckily, this draft also has one of the best point guard prospects in the last decade. Scoot Henderson from G League Ignite, while having a slower year than many anticipated, is still clearly the 2nd best prospect in the class behind Victor, and would be a huge relief to the Rockets, who struggled to have any kind of offensive creation last season outside of Sengun. 

Having a true point guard who can play both on and off-ball, and create an athletic backcourt with Jalen Green would help push the Rockets from a poor decision-making young team, to a dynamic, young squad that can punch you in the mouth off tip every game. Scoot, while not being AS impactful as Victor long term, does still fill in a huge hole for the Rockets, and brings a level of athleticism, decision-making and skill at the 1 position that the team is missing. 

Spurs (Tyler):

I have spent the last 6 months with five simple words etched into my brain, permeating nearly every waking thought I have.

Amen Thompson is a Spur.

Victor Wembanyama is far and away the top prospect in the class, that is undisputed, but Amen Thompson is the best fit considering their existing team needs.

The San Antonio Spurs were far and away the worst team in the NBA at maintaining and creating advantages last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. 

The patented hum from Spurs offenses past began with one thing: rim pressure. Without it, there was no drive to kick start the drive and kick offense. 

Amen Thompson is the preeminent rim pressure threat of this class and potentially of the decade, apparating past defenders on the perimeter at the drop of a hat. The Spurs roster is littered with excellent spacing and dependent scoring in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Amen will have more than enough space to make his magic happen, and with his very presence the Spurs would finally, once again make sense.

Amen Thompson could be the next great Spurs point guard, following in the lighting-quick first steps of Tony Parker, but this time with the positional size and maddening creative genius that allowed Manu Ginobili to steal the heart of an entire city. That possibility alone is worth the price of admission.

Amen Thompson is a Spur. I feel it in my bones. 

Hornets (Dennis):

LaMelo’s size and skillset would allow us to make everyone of the top prospects fit, but Amen Thompson would be a mesmerizing match with him. We could become one of the most lethal teams in transition with both Amen’s and LaMelo’s ability to throw mind-boggling outlet passes and run the floor hard on every opportunity. Both also would complement each other really well as tall ball handlers with superb passing ability and high level of feel on the basketball court. I would expect them to build a similar bond as a passing duo as Amen’s with his twin brother, but with Amen more often on the receiving end of the pass. He is the best overall athlete in the draft and probably a top 5 athlete by the time he steps on the floor and in most draft years would have a strong argument to be the number one prospect of the draft. 

Blazers (Uri):

Great question, our situation is a bit different from those of our lottery companions. We have perimeter scoring, but our roster needs balance. We see Jarace Walker as a really strong fit alongside our current squad. We have enough on-ball guards, what we need is a culture establishing bulldog with positional versatility. He fits both of our needs and wants, adding high level lottery talent as well as filling the needs with a two-way wing. We love his defensive ceiling and offensive floor and see him as a 15 year NBA player for a successful ballclub. 

Magic (RK):

Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, could be a great fit to grow with Orlando. The Thompson Twins played for Pine Crest in Florida during high school before playing in Overtime Elite; while some scouts recently bring up doubts due to competition levels, we can’t ignore god given talent, natural abilities, and hard work. Amen and Ausar are two high flying guards who have the first step, burst, body and ball control to explode at the rim at will, creating paint touches with ease, with the finishing touch at the rim helping to create a realistic development paths going forward as downhill scoring forces with tough shot-making abilities. Elite athleticism, footwork, and timing helps the twins bring high-level defensive impact.

While Amen rightfully receives praise for blurring coast-to-coast highlights, Ausar has flashed more of a C&S 3pt shot diet and defensive activity through their early careers. Amen ranked 3rd in blocks in Overtime Elite’s season with 33; Ausar nearly doubled that total with 60 blocks to lead all players. In a three season sample at Pine Crest, Amen shot 28.9% 3P% (45/156 3PA) from downtown while Ausar attempted more than twice as many on similar efficiency at 30% 3P%. (111/370 3PA) From the free throw line, one demarcation for future scoring development, Amen shot 62.5% (267/427 FTA) while Ausar shot nearly 10% better on similar volume at 71.3% FT%. (263/369 FTA)

Both twins deserve to be high lottery picks, with Amen in rumors as high as 2nd overall. While Amen could swiftly become a north-south force star and household name, Ausar could quickly fill an off-ball 3&D role locking down the other team’s best perimeter player at point of attack on one end while attacking closeouts off the creation of others like Paolo, Franz, and Fultz on the other end while maintaining similar exciting upside as his brother. With development of tight handles, versatile shooting profile, and tough shot-making, all the skills could come together for Ausar to take a high two-way floor and develop into a dynamic on-ball scoring option.

Pacers (Charlie):

Though it’s tempting to say Amen Thompson, as he would be the ideal backcourt mate for Tyrese, I want to be realistic about draft spot. But his brother Ausar might fall right in their range.

Indiana is lacking scoring juice on the wings outside of Ben Mathurin, so Brandon Miller feels like a logical fit, but I’d like to see Indiana add more playmaking to the perimeter along with potentially elite defense and some scoring chops. Ausar feels primed to step into a Lonzo Ball-type role as a strong ballhandler and elite second-side attacker with connective passing chops and the potential for a solid catch-and-shoot game. He can also take the hardest defensive matchups off Haliburton and Mathurin’s plate, and the energy he expels on that end will be countered by the load that Hali/Eggs Benny can shoulder on the other end.

I can’t think of a better balance of scoring on and off ball, playmaking, and defensive potential in a three-man group of young prospects. That’s the kind of talent that could put Indiana back on the basketball map, even without Wembanyama

Wizards (Joe):

We like Bradley Beal playing off of versatile defenders who can shoot, and if Wemby is a miss, why not swing on Taylor Hendricks in the top 10. Hendricks has shown promise as a shotmaker (40% on 4.6 threes per game) and a stocks-maker (1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals per game) and we like his upside as someone who can also play day 1 with his athleticism.

Hendricks can shadow Porzingis as a rangy scorer/shotblocker, while also developing unique chemistry with wing of the future Deni Avdija. Hendricks’ biggest weakness is likely lacking the highest level of feel for positioning, where Deni can make up for his weaknesses with sharp passing, step-ahead rotations.

For fringe playoff teams, athleticism, shooting and defense can only help. All that while keeping star upside? Sign me up.

Jazz (AJ):

The easy answer to this is Scoot Henderson. Even without Vic, we have quite a bit of talent and versatility in the front court, and based off the 2nd half of his rookie season Ochai Agbaji is gonna be a fixture in our wing rotation for years to come. The biggest issue by far with our core right now is the lack of a top tier primary ball handler; and while Colin Sexton and Talen-Horton Tucker are both getting better and each have a genuinely elite trait to build upon, it’s clear that neither is close to rivaling Scoot Henderson as a long term prospect.

Outside of being a little light on perimeter defense, a Scoot/Agbaji/Lauri/Kessler checks virtually every box and we’d have plenty of assets left to invest in another 2-way wing to supplement this core. Amen Thompson or Anthony Black would also be great fits as potential NBA lead guards, but there’s no doubt that Scoot Henderson’s playstyle and star power would give our core the best possible chance at contending out of any player in this draft not named Victor.

The post Who Deserves Victor Wembanyama? appeared first on Swish Theory.

Heading into the season, few knew what to expect from the San Antonio Spurs. A Gregg Popovich-coached team is never going to be dismal, but with the Dejounte Murray trade, it was fair to infer that they might be looking for a high pick in the upcoming generational-appearing draft class.

However, the Spurs appear to have too many up-and-coming players to truly bottom out, as they have started the year with impressive wins on the road over Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Indiana. The Spurs have a plethora of intriguing guards and wings such as Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Tre Jones who appear to be taking leaps or consolidating on an already impressive developmental curve.

It is, however, another Spurs player who has caught my eye.

Jakob Poeltl originally arrived at the Spurs from the Toronto Raptors when they opted to trade away Kawhi Leonard. DeMar DeRozan was the centerpiece of the package they got back, but ironically it looks as if Poeltl is going to usher in a new era of the San Antonio Spurs. Poeltl’s passing, positioning, and all-around excellence have helped the Spurs to a surprising start, and he has built upon a 21-22 season where he took a major leap forward in his all-around game.

Since the moment Dejounte Murray was traded, there have been whispers and even expectations that the Spurs would eventually move Poeltl. Such a move right now would be silly, as the Spurs run their motion offense through him and he is making everyone around him better. Though of course, the individual Spurs players deserve credit for their own play, Poeltl’s unselfishness and fluidity make things easier for everyone.

San Antonio’s Egalitarian Offense

Though high-level basketball can often come down to complex schemes and dribble-drive moves, there is a huge argument that doing the little things right can really move the needle. Throughout the Gregg Popovich era, San Antonio has always excelled in the little things on offense. These include cutting, making the right move off-ball, screening, lifting from the corner, and so on and so forth. This iteration of the Spurs doesn’t run a ton of set plays, but rather they run a gorgeous motion offense with cutting, screening, and passing. Poeltl is often at the center of this.

As a team, the Spurs are 7th in passes per game, 1st in assists per game, 1st in potential assists per game and 4th in secondary assists per game. More notable is Poeltl’s role. The only center making more passes per game is Nikola Jokic. These don’t always turn into assists, but this is more proof that the Spurs aren’t just taking the first shot available. They are using Poeltl as a hub to bend defenses with cutters, and being patient and allowing their young players to work through progressions like NFL Quarterbacks.

Among the most used lineup combinations in the NBA, The San Antonio Spurs’ starting lineup ranks 1st in shot quality. This is a metric giving weighting to shots at the rim and three-point land, but also taking into account a variety of other factors as opposed to just merely labeling a shot good because of where it was taken. The Spurs are 15th in offensive efficiency, per ESPN. But given their shot quality, there is a decent argument that they can improve upon this as they are hitting the right players in the right areas of the court.

Let’s look at the first concept any team running things through a center will use: Delay.

Delay is where the center has the ball at the top of the key and has two players on either side of him. The most common read out of this is Chicago action, which involves a guard coming off a screen to take a dribble handoff. On this occasion, Vassell dives to the rim to take the help defender, knowing Gobert will be in drop, The Spurs end up with a wide-open look from three.

Delay action is hugely popular because it strains the defense by forcing centers out onto the three-point line. You can flow into a variety of actions from the delay outline. It’s also a good way of keeping multiple players involved and especially for teaching multiple young guards to read and react in different scenarios. This makes it make even more sense that the Spurs run it often. They also regularly run it down the stretch as you can see below.

Here, the Spurs mesh two of the most effective and modern phenomena in NBA offenses: Delay Action, and empty-side pick-and-rolls. Devin Vassell clears out, creating the Chicago action. PJ Tucker’s tight coverage is read well by Poeltl who instead flows into an empty side action with Tre Jones. Poeltl’s fluidity and quick processing speed make these actions hugely profitable for the Spurs.

The Spurs don’t just use delay in half-court, some of their out-of-bounds plays also just immediately flow into delay action which shows their desire to run such a free-flowing offense.

Here, the Spurs have Poeltl flash to the top of the key and run delay action with Richardson emerging from the paint on a sort of quasi-exit screen. They will sometimes go to this in the half-court but a lot of their out bounds plays just involve them flowing into motion offense as opposed to running some diverse screening action. This is becoming more common.

I mentioned their desire to create empty-side actions which are becoming extremely common throughout the NBA. Here, they run a pick-and-fade for Jakob Poeltl which isn’t immediately a threat. But they flow into an empty side hand-off action to get Doug McDermott a great look against Rudy Gobert’s drop coverage.

On the next play, the Spurs go to the extreme with their perimeter movement and cutting to get an empty-side action.

They pitch to Poeltl and two players make decoy cuts before they get their best player Keldon Johnson into a two-man game. He reads the coverage and takes the open three.

The Spurs empty side game is usually flowed into with real pace. Speed of action is probably a better indicator of pace than the raw ‘pace’ statistic which is just calculated by the number of possessions. But the Spurs’ young guns make this action quick and that draws respect. On the play below, the Spurs create the empty side action and Tobias Harris is just a step behind his man. This forces Embiid to show on the ball handler and from there the Spurs create an open corner three on the weak side. Their action created an advantage and their overall principles helped sustain it.

One might argue that any big on the Spurs roster can do this. While that is somewhat true in the case of Zach Collins, what sets Poeltl apart is his individual passing ability and his mix of fluidity and aggression on offense. He is by no means an elite individual scorer but his footwork and power means he can take the ball to the rack and finish irrespective of the support or quality of opportunity he is getting. Take the play below as an example.

It’s the same two-man game as before. This time, Minnesota covers the two-man game relatively well but Doug McDermott doesn’t see Tre Jones excellent exit cut to the corner. Poeltl gets it on the block against the multi-time defensive player of the year winner in Rudy Gobert but he backs him down and shows real craft to hit the reverse layup. Poeltl is shooting 76 percent at the rim this year which is the best mark of his career. Though Poeltl lacks the verticality and pure speed to really ever be a league leader in frequency of shots at the rim, he still makes the most of his 70th percentile volume of shots at the rim.

Poeltl also has shown consistent touch in hitting floaters. Given the fact he’s not a vertical athlete who will overwhelm NBA Centers with sheer power on a regular basis this is huge. He’s currently 53rd percentile as a finisher from short mid-range per Cleaning the Glass. But I’d expect this to rebound a bit given he’s never finished with a mark that low in his entire career. He’s an extremely high volume short-mid range attempts guy which comes down to the fact he’s usually lurking around the elbows and high post as opposed to aggressively diving towards the rim.

Something I love about the Spurs is they continue to move even when they see a player trying to go to work.

Here, the Spurs use Doug McDermott on a curl to open up the weak side for a two-man game. Knowing Lopez will drop deep, Poeltl flashes high and hits a high-level floater. He also had the option to feed Josh Richardson for an open three off the wide ball screen. Again, this further conveys how Poeltl is a hub that the Spurs other players flow around and quite literally give you death by a thousand cuts.

Poeltl is also the best passing big on the Spurs roster by a wide margin. He’s able to fit the ball into tough windows and his mesh of processing speed and overall aggressiveness means he can find windows throughout the shot clock. Generally, something San Antonio loves to do is run split-cutters off of him. These are incredibly hard to defend but it’s also a great way of keeping multiple players involved and feeding multiple mouths. This also meshes with something I believe to be Poeltl’s most overlooked skill- his ability to flash to the right areas and play effectively from these areas.

The staple play of the 2022-2023 San Antonio Spurs is simply split cuts off their center who positions himself at the elbow. Split cuts are merely cuts in different directions away from a ball handler, usually a big man. They are extremely hard to defend and given the Spurs have an array of fast-young players who need their reps, it makes sense to spam this play at a high rate.

On this play, everyone is moving. They attempt to have one player clear to the weak side to create that two-man empty side look they love. The Clippers defense stays extremely tight. When Poeltl opens the offense up to the weak side, Keita Bates-Diop punishes Reggie Jackson’s stunt to help on Norman Powell’s man, and Poeltl fires a perfect pass into KBD while the defense is rotating, also known as a proactive pass.

This wasn’t some one-off pass for Jakob Poeltl, he’s improved in this area drastically in San Antonio. The narrowness of his scoring profile means he will never be an elite playmaking big man but given most teams would want him as a screen and dive big, this well-above-average level of passing and playmaking is highly valuable.

Here, the Spurs flow into a two-man action that doesn’t involve the center. The ball generally will find its way somewhere else given the nature of the Spurs’ motion game, so they flow back into Poeltl and run split cuts. Three split cuts eventually end with Richardson getting a wide-open three out of the same principles the famed flex offense would utilize for many years in college basketball. Split cuts will often create traffic and screens don’t always need to be set simply because the player movement is having the same effect.

Something I like about the Spurs is the fact they flow into effective actions when the original actions break down. This is something that isn’t typical of young teams. Take the play below as an example.

They end up in a position of stagnation, but Poeltl goes into Chicago action to free up Keldon Johnson to go into that two-man game with Devin Vassell. Getting your two best players in an action is a good idea, but creating traffic and forcing the defense to constrict into the paint just makes these actions even more fruitful.

Poeltl also is beginning to show consistent flashes of reading off-ball defenders, which makes the Spurs cut heavy offense even more effective.

Aaron Gordon senses the two-man DHO game coming so tries to get ahead of it. Poeltl plays it perfectly though, he sets Gordon up for the hand-off then hits Keldon Johnson on the backdoor cut. As I previously mentioned, Poeltl isn’t ever going to be a top tier playmaker, but he’s still showing passing evolution and executing some really nice high level-reads.

Overall, Poeltl is extremely valuable offensively. He’s relatively fluid and this meshes well with his passing and overall reading of the court. The Spurs offense runs through him, even though he isn’t the number one scoring option. The numbers are fruitful for such a young team. The major limitation is his free-throw percentage which has been well below average his entire career. His lack of verticality isn’t really an issue assuming you have the right personnel.

Pick-and-roll heavy teams may not be the best use of his talents even with his short-roll passing because ultimately the lack of scoring could be costly. But teams who run diverse and creative off-ball offenses fit him like a glove. The Spurs’ offense would not work without his decisiveness, his fluidity, and his vision. The bail-out potential with his floaters is also extremely valuable to a young team that will no doubt have some broken possessions and makes some bad reads. His 88th percentile assist percentage summarises both his value and how emboldened his role is to this Spurs team.

The Defensive Anchor

Poeltl is perhaps more known on a national level for his defensive work. He’s been one of the better rim protectors and drop bigs in the NBA in recent years. Schematically, the Spurs generally run drop coverage. This simplifies things for their variety of young players who can theoretically use their athleticism to contest from behind and navigate through screens. They are third in drop coverage usage across the NBA.

Poeltl is one of a select group of players this season averaging one steal and one block per game. He impacts the game as a defender on multiple fronts and matches up well with a lot of the versatile big men in the NBA. Per Cleaning the Glass, Poeltl is in the 78th percentile for steal percentage and the 58th percentile for block percentage. I expect the block percentage to rise, given for the last three seasons he’s been at worst in the 88th percentile. He erases shots and seems to always be in the right position as you can see below.

Poeltl has legitimate bailout potential as a defender. Here, the Bucks flow into delay-chicago action on the sideline out of bounds play. Tre Jones ends up taking two bad angles so Jevon Carter has a free pass at Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl stays toe to toe with the driver the entire way and swats the shot away. Being able to erase mistakes is pivotal for a big man playing with such a young team as mistakes are bound to happen.

The best thing about Poeltl as a defender is his elite discipline, he just doesn’t seem to foul and that generally comes back to his positioning. If you set yourself up for success early and are in the right spot, you’re always less likely to foul. He’s in the 93rd percentile for foul percentage this season which is by far the highest mark of his career. The Spurs’ defensive rating overall is somewhat skewed by the fact they give up the fourth most transition opportunities in the NBA. In the half-court, they are a respectable 19th in defensive rating. This speaks well to Poeltl’s potential scalability to other teams should they choose to trade him.

Part of a re-tooling process is ensuring you sell on veterans at the right time to gain more assets and eventually open up opportunities for younger players. However, Poeltl is a really interesting test to this rule. He makes everyone else on the roster better with his passing and defensive positioning.

He also plays at quite a shallow position and matches up well with some of the more fluid fives which means the Spurs can justify playing small a lot of the time. Poeltl alters shots with his positioning and allows the Spurs’ young players to get steals and blocks. Generally, he opens up the playbook on both sides of the ball which is highly valuable to a team that has young players.

The solar system of the Spurs’ offense orbits around Poeltl at the elbow and the high post. His overall fluidity and willingness to make the right play is why the Spurs are surprising many people with how competitive they’ve been this year. The Spurs won’t fall apart if they trade him, but it’s hard to envision them finding anyone who is playing this well at a time that is right with everyone else on their roster.

The post How Jakob Poeltl Is Thriving as the Spurs’ Two-Way Hub appeared first on Swish Theory.

Of all the position groups in the loaded 2023 Draft, the quality and depth of toolsy wings with promising secondary skills has a case for the strongest. Looking for a world-class athlete with wing stopper upside and improving perimeter skill? Ausar Thompson is your guy. Want an even better wing athlete who intuitively approaches problems on both ends like a 5’9” point guard? His twin brother Amen fits the bill. Maybe you’re searching for a combo forward who can offer similar secondary rim protection and driving upside as the Thompsons, with added bulk to handle interior duties? Jarace Walker is perfect. And if you just want to bet on a young prospect with an outlier skill and projectable frame, Dillon Mitchell and Anthony Black offer outlines of exciting (though murky) star outcomes.

But between all of these players, one constant remains: none of them can shoot! There are certainly different degrees of bad shooters among this group, but none of them project to reach the level of shooting consistency necessary to draw hard closeouts. “If they shoot, they’ll be a steal!” is a common trope in draft coverage, and it’s easy to understand why — statements like this aren’t staking out much ground when applied to super-athletes tasked with filling out the only glaring hole in their games. Yes, Amen Thompson will be good if he shoots 35%+ from 3 on volume! Instead, “What if they don’t shoot?” is a much more nuanced and worthwhile question, and one that often goes unexplored.

The term “Non-shooting wing” just doesn’t sound right; shooting is central to the concept of the idealized offball wing. All the offensive responsibilities that are expected of offball wings today are either directly or indirectly impacted by their shooting: 

A) maintaining space for creators via shooting gravity, 

B) attacking advantages off the catch (often closeouts, which must be drawn in the first place, back to point A), and 

C) finishing advantages — often by shooting a jumpshot.

This is no doubt an oversimplification of role, and category B on its own contains a host of different microskills and play types that suit wildly different kinds of players. Still, it bears repeating that a lack of shooting gravity on the wing completely undermines the integrity of the catch-22 that modern drive-and-kick offense is designed to create.  So, how valuable is a player who bucks their own system? Is it worth the effort to fit a player who will always be a square peg into what will always be a round hole?

In these terms, non-shooting wings seem so fundamentally counter-intuitive that they can’t possibly be net positive offensive players in the NBA. And yet…over the course of NBA history, plenty have made it work! Though it certainly takes a special combination of ancillary offensive skills and defensive prowess, there’s a handful of players who’ve succeeded in this role – often similar only in key weakness, but wildly different in archetype.

So what can we take away from this special batch of outliers? That’s what this series is all about: detailing the development path, usage, and unique skills of the non-shooting wings who were able to carve out a career in the NBA, then applying that knowledge to the wings of the 2023 Draft.

*A quick disclaimer:  the term “non-shooting” doesn’t leave much wiggle room, but for our purposes let’s define it as a player who isn’t a good enough shooter to draw a closeout in an NBA playoff setting. Some players we’ll cover won’t even come close to this threshold, while others will straddle it at points throughout their careers. I want to emphasize that we aren’t looking for 1:1 direct player comps to apply to the ‘23 wings; instead, I’ll aim to learn more about the different historical precedents to success as a NSW, and become familiar with the different tools and counters that these players use in order to stick in the league.

Introducing Boris

Boris Diaw’s career trajectory from lanky jumbo ball handler to stout connective big is one of the forgotten gems of recent development history. Billed as a shooting guard entering the 2003 Draft, his intersection of passing guile and positional versatility at 6’8”(7’3” wingspan!) drove his appeal as a 1st round prospect. He spent his formative years at 1st division French club Élan Béarnais, where he played an understandably modest role as a secondary creator. Even as a relatively low usage player, Diaw (#12/#13) flashed the impressive processing speed and ball skills that would go on to define his NBA career. 

Although he would later garner a reputation as a limited athlete, Diaw’s leaner frame as a teenager made for some uncharacteristically loud athletic highlights. To those who are only familiar with him from his days in San Antonio, this nimble version Boris would be virtually unrecognizable. Still, it was clear from his pre-NBA tape that he didn’t possess the burst or handle to carry significant NBA creation burden as a guard. Most of his flashes of passing brilliance came when Diaw was operating off of an advantage, rather than getting downhill to generate one himself. Without these invaluable self-created paint touches, teams must find a different way to scheme players like Diaw into opportunities to facilitate against a tilted defense; this is then compounded by not being able to shoot well enough to draw hard closeouts. This problem would later become one of the driving conflicts of Diaw’s career.   

After the Hawks selected Diaw 21st overall in the 2003 Draft, he struggled to get his career off the ground. Atlanta tried to use Diaw as an offball wing, used occasionally as a screener but rarely given ball handling or passing opportunities (11.4% and 15.5% USG in his 2 seasons as a Hawk). When non-shooting wings are haphazardly thrown in the corner, they siphon space away from the offense with their lack of gravity — this was the case with Diaw.  He was treated like any other wing, cast aside as an afterthought and expected to mold around the Hawks’ established creators in Steven Jackson and Jason Terry. 

This is a recipe for disaster when developing a player like Boris; prospects with unique flaws (15/76 from 3 as a Hawk) must be deployed intentionally with counter-measures that address their key weaknesses. Sticking Boris in the corner as a non-threat from 3 was never going to work out in Atlanta. To make non-shooting wings like Diaw work, you must find creative ways to utilize them within the flow of the offense in ways that hide their lack of shooting gravity, even on plays where they never touch the ball. This would go on to be one of the central themes of Diaw’s career arc. 

Even with limited opportunities, Diaw (#32/#13) continued to flash his upside as a connective passer, especially when dicing up a bent defense: 

After a rocky first 2 years in the league, Boris looked to be on a trajectory out of the NBA if something didn’t change quickly. But while the Hawks were struggling to provide a suitable developmental infrastructure for Diaw, the Phoenix Suns were revolutionizing basketball on the other side of the country.

Suns Tenure + Counters for Lack of Shooting Gravity

Diaw was traded to the Suns after his 2nd year in the league, and entered a cookie-cutter context for his set of skills. With Amar’e Stoudemire’s knee injury keeping him out of almost the entire 2005-06 season, the Suns had a gaping hole at power forward. The 6’8” Diaw, exclusively a perimeter player up to this point in his career, made an ambitious move to the 4 which opened up new paths for success and gave his development arc new life. 

It’s important to remember that the duties of a power forward in 2005 are very different from the duties of a power forward in today’s game. In 2022, length, ground coverage and shooting range are no longer valuable add-ons at the position, but requirements. Gone are the days of bumbling 6’8” bruisers camping out in the dunkers spot (many 4s today are just taller wings!). In fact, If Diaw was a prospect in 2022, he likely would’ve been tagged as a power forward from the start. But in 2005, a player who had only averaged 5 rebounds/36 the season prior moving to power forward was seen as staunchly avant-garde.  

So how did Diaw make it work?

 Let’s revisit the questions posed earlier in the section: How can you hide a poor shooter most effectively while also leveraging their passing acumen? What are the other ways to manufacture some form of gravity for a non-shooter, other than simply giving them the ball and letting them drive 20x a game? Mike D’Antoni proposed a solution: Using Diaw as a high-volume screener, DHO operator, and touch passer.

At this junction in NBA history, Diaw was considered extremely lean for a power forward at 6’8”/215 lbs. He was a relatively poor screen setter and rebounder – his development as a perimeter-oriented player never put emphasis on improving these skills. His lack of vertical athleticism held him back as a roller, a stark contrast to Amar’e’s dynamism as a lob threat the year prior. 

But the Suns didn’t have anyone better that season, and utilizing Diaw in this role was a compromise – deal with an athletically-limited primary roller, and reap the benefits of Diaw’s elite connective passing, grab-and-go offense, and secondary creation. Putting Boris in screening actions almost every possession minimized the time he spent in the corner, while also giving him opportunities to leverage his decision making and vision as a DHO operator and roller. Phoenix was throwing Diaw in teams’ faces, daring them to ignore him rolling to the rim the same way they did when he was spotted up in the corner. It was an imperfect solution to his lack of shooting gravity, but one that left Diaw a clear net positive on offense, able to stay on the floor for long stretches in a playoff series. 

Even on possessions where Diaw (#3) didn’t make a flashy kickout or throw a pinpoint lob, simply giving him something to do was enough to keep him from negatively affecting the rest of the offense. While he doesn’t necessarily do anything special on this play, limiting the time Diaw spends sitting in the corner as a non-threat is vital to keeping him a tenable playoff player. These “net neutral” plays are key to making any non-shooting wing work in the half court. 

Even in this particular clip, Diaw’s offensive feel manifests itself in a unique way. After handing the ball off, he initially positions himself as if the shooter intends to come off the screen to the right, before wisely flipping his hips at the last moment to seal off a lane to the left and fool the defender. Boris’ feel as a screen setter was a big asset for him in Phoenix and San Antonio. 

There’s no doubt that Diaw left points on the board as a playfinisher, as his combination of poor vertical pop and timidness as a finisher made for many record scratch moments like this:

However, Boris was able to compensate for his limitations as a finisher with his flawless decision making. Diaw excelled as a short roll playmaker, routinely able to find open shooters from various angles, release points, and spots on the floor:

These reps are a good encapsulation of Diaw’s capabilities as a roller. A more explosive player might be able to finish over the help, but Boris is still able to create efficient shots for his teammates via his passing vision and roll gravity:

This unorthodox archetype of pass-first roller was one of the various parts of Diaw’s game that synergized perfectly with the Suns roster.

7SOL Suns 

The 7 Seconds or Less Suns were perhaps the earliest glimpse of how the game is widely played today; in Diaw’s first season in Phoenix, the Suns led the league in pace, 3s attempted, and 3pt%, all by a wide margin. And while Steve Nash’s off-the-dribble shotmaking and pick-and-roll acumen were the foundations of the Suns offense, their group of rangy and versatile snipers on the wing provided the spacing necessary for Nash to operate. Between Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, and (46 games of) Tim Thomas, the Suns had 3 wings who all provided vastly different functionality on both sides of the court, but one thing was consistent: they could all shoot the cover off the ball. The trio shot above 40% from 3 in 2005-06, and combined to attempt 15.8 3s per 36 minutes in regular season action (more than 28 of the 30 NBA teams had as a whole!). 

The Suns’ level of offensive spacing was unprecedented in the basketball sludge of the early aughts, and it benefitted Diaw greatly. Their style of play was tailor-made for a pass-first roller, as Diaw’s finishing struggles are a much easier pill to swallow when his distribution skills are paired with the best kickout options in the league (Phoenix shot 39.9% from 3 in 2005-06!). The trade-off from a high-flying lob threat to an elite decision making roll man is much more appealing when the latter has 3-4 accurate and willing shooters to find on any given possession. 

Shawn Marion, who was a respectable shooter in his own right (33% on 3 attempts/36, which was good for 76th highest volume in the league back then!), provided a unique dimension as a world-class finisher, closeout attacker, and transition handler. He and Diaw enjoyed a rapport in the two-man game, often even hooking up for lobs off of free throw line (!) PnRs when Nash was off the floor.

Diaw commanded bench units in a variety of contexts, able to win as a driver and PnR handler against defensive lineups that were a bit easier to crack than starting units. The handling and athletic limitations that held him back from a full-time role as a ball handler were less evident in this change-of-pace creator role. His combination of length and coordination was the foundation of his appeal as an advantage creator.

Connective Passing (cont.)

Although Boris wasn’t drawing tremendous backline gravity as a roller, the presence of a large man barreling down the lane is often enough to draw some form defensive rotation, especially once Diaw is fed the ball. He’s often able to use his deep post positioning off of rolls to, once again, leverage his passing instincts against a tilted defense in an unconventional way. This idea is similar to how smaller guards can still hold functional rim pressure as downhill drivers, even if they aren’t a threat to finish over significant contests.

Diaw’s blistering processing speed also held value as a perimeter ballmover – even if Boris drew little to no defensive respect as a popper or kickout receiver, his ability to swing the ball half a beat early allowed him to consistently deliver the advantage to a player better equipped to capitalize on it (once again, synergizing perfectly with the Suns array of shooters):

Diaw fit right in with Phoenix’s pension for early clock shot attempts, as he thrived in the artificial semi-transition environment the Suns loved to create (often pushing off of opponent makes!). Defenders are much more likely to sag or help off of a non-shooter when defending a set offense methodically running their sets – less so when scrambling just to get back to their assigned defensive shell. And the possessions when Diaw was being sagged off of were usually when Phoenix’s initial push up the floor had sputtered out, and the offense had to reset (which was thankfully not too often).

Importance of Functional Big Size

Even before his drastic weight gain, Diaw was able to capably function as a 4 on both ends, largely due to his outlier length (his wingspan is 7 inches longer than his listed height!). Although he wasn’t a dominant finisher or rebounder, his frame allowed him to cover the replacement level big duties that come with playing up in the lineup. These extra 3 or 4 inches of range can be the difference between a position-locked wing and a forward with 4 flexibility, even if their power forward skill set hasn’t been realized quite yet. For bigger 3s who aren’t quite ready to guard and rebound against power forwards, their extra length creates potential for skill dev into roles that smaller wings don’t have access to. 

This Diaw sequence against Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks perfectly illustrates the value of functional length for wings trying to play up in the lineup. In Game 1 of the 2006 Western Conference Finals, Boris put up a career-high of 34 points, including the game winning turnaround baby jumper. A chunk of his 23 2nd half points came on post-ups over the Mavericks’ guards, as coach Avery Johnson continued to switch ball screens even while Diaw feasted on Devin Harris and Jason Terry down low for easy buckets or trips to the free throw line.

Midway through the third quarter, Johnson adjusted by sending an extra defender to the ball once Diaw established position in the post. Diaw immediately countered with an adjustment of his own, riffling cross-court skip passes for open 3s once the help committed to the post-up. Although these 3s didn’t fall, Diaw’s “traditional big gravity” as a post-up player allowed him to leverage his “wing”/perimeter skillset as a passer in a unique way and generate quality looks for his team: 

Diaw’s length also held immense value on the defense end. Although this is fundamentally a piece about non-shooting wings on offense, my point is moot if they can’t stay on the floor on the other end! Diaw’s wingspan helped make up for his vertical deficiencies, allowing him to be a tenable defensive 4 even without the athletic tools one would expect from an NBA big.

Spurs Tenure 

Diaw’s tenure in San Antonio was a departure from his early career role as a wing. As a Spur, he leaned into a role as a stretch 4.5, with emphasis on offball movement, screen setting, low post work, and yes, outside shooting! Diaw gained 35 pounds from his 2005 breakout in Phoenix to his final season as a Spur, and this extra bulk had its fair share of trade offs: improved screen setting and post-up capability, but a marked decrease in his already-modest vertical pop. It’s no secret that Boris is a foodie, and this transition from wing to big was undoubtedly accelerated by Diaw’s joie de vivre off the court; as his career went along, his summers consisted less of intense open runs and more of french pastry crumbs. 

Diaw’s career arc is an interesting case study in how different skills can manifest themselves in different ways with only a shift in body type. The brilliant connective passer from Phoenix was clearly still in there somewhere – only now he was doing his damage out of postups, and accessing advantages/high-leverage decision making opportunities via strength-based creation and shooting gravity, instead of as a short roller and DHO operator. Part of this shift in usage can be chalked up to scheme and era, as the league that Boris entered in 2003 was a far cry from the one he left in 2018. It’s especially telling that while Diaw transitioned from a wing to a big over the course of his career, his skillset evolved in the opposite direction; he wasn’t a threat from behind the arc until his early 30s. His body told him to become a big, and the landscape of the league pushed him towards expanding his range; the result was a shift from non-shooting wing to… shooting non-wing.

The name of this series is “Non shooting wings” – Spurs Diaw was neither of those things. Because of this, we won’t spend too much time discussing the minutiae of his time in San Antonio. Still, this stretch of his career throws a wrinkle into the larger argument of this piece. His career arc begs the obvious question: if the emergence of shooting gravity as a requirement rather than a feature for modern wings forced him to become a threat from 3 in order to extend his career, why should he be propped up as a blueprint for other non-shooting wings to follow, who are entering the same league environment that forced him to adapt? Applying historical examples of a seemingly extinct archetype to current-day prospects seems almost ironic in its shortsightedness. That’s the reason why I didn’t write an entry to this series for the archaic bruiser PFs that frequented the early 2000s. The difference between that archetype and Diaw’s is that we’ve seen Boris make his skillset work in an offense with contemporary principles –  the 7SOL Suns prioritized the pace and spacing that rule the league today. 

While the Suns certainly weren’t as progressive as today’s offenses (their 2005-06 .293 3-point attempt rate would’ve ranked dead last in the NBA last season), it’s significant that a team built on modern values made an exception for a connector like Diaw. What’s also significant is that they clearly utilized him mindfully: not just throwing him out on the court as a living hedge against their revolutionary style of 3pt-oriented offense, but instead crafting a unique role heavy in screening and DHO responsibility that limited his time as dead weight off the ball. Wings who could put up more than a few 3s a game were hard enough to find at this time — acquiring multiple who could do that and also be the connective tissue of an offense was even more difficult. So while he didn’t fulfill the first requirement, Diaw complemented Phoenix’s plethora of gunner wings by bringing traits to the table that were hard to find amongst high volume 3pt shooters at this time (connective passing, screen setting, and reliable secondary ball handling).

So if a team like Phoenix was ideal for Diaw, what contexts would be the worst for him? Although the high pick-and-roll was a staple of the Suns offense, it’s exploded in popularity around the league since 2006. Teams like the Clippers or Mavericks who run a lot of high-ball screens insulated by 3 spacers wouldn’t be the best fit for Boris, as  these streamlined offenses don’t leave much room for a secondary screener like Diaw to find a role. His only option would be becoming the primary roller for these PnR-heavy teams, and while this is the solution the Suns used, it’s probably not tenable for teams who run as many PnRs as Dallas or LAC (especially without a 1B roller as dynamic as Shawn Marion). A motion-based offense like the Warriors’ system would suit his skills far better, as their system calls for wings who can set screens, make quick decisions, and attack closeouts – all things Diaw excelled at. 

Boris’ Solution:

Key skills: Elite connective passing + enough scoring juice to keep defenses honest + replacement level big size and functionality to fill tertiary “big man” offensive duties

Role: high volume screener, DHO operator, and secondary ball handler

Ideal context: High pace team with lots of early offense and motion-heavy sets

So which non-shooting wings in the 2023 draft class could draw inspiration from Diaw in their NBA careers?

This piece won’t include lengthy background information on the prospects themselves, but I’ve linked their individual Swish Theory scouting reports in with the blurbs below.

Perhaps the most forward-slanted player we’ll cover in this series, Jarace Walker is the closest of the ‘23 wing prospects to Diaw’s body type. At 6’8”/240, he fulfills the physical requirements necessary to be a good screen setter (though his technique and physicality could use some work). Walker is also a much more natural fit as a roller due to his athletic profile — he’s a dynamic leaper who can get off the floor in a flash and finish through contact. In many ways, Jarace seems like a better fit for Diaw’s role in Phoenix than Diaw himself. Jarace’s ball handling skills are still emerging, but his senior year at IMG was encouraging, and he offers a similar intersection of overwhelming length (7’2” wingspan) and rare coordination for size that fueled Diaw’s off-the-dribble game. He seems like a good bet to meet the thresholds of handling, decision making, and downhill gravity necessary to function as a DHO-heavy creator like Diaw. 

There isn’t much to project with Jarace here; all he needs is reasonably positive handle development and a continuation of his upward trajectory as a decision maker to slide effortlessly into Phoenix Diaw usage, albeit a less dynamic connective passer but more well-rounded playfinisher. Again, the goal here isn’t to shoehorn the prospects into a certain historical role, but Diaw’s offensive diet is too perfect for Jarace to ignore. Even if he never develops as a shooter, Jarace should be able to stay on an NBA floor between his usefulness as a big secondary initiator, roll gravity, and rebounding upside.

Amen Thompson is a much less cut-and-dry fit in Diaw’s archetype. Amen and Boris might be polar opposites in body type and athletic profile, but they churn problems on the court in a similar manner. Just like Diaw, Amen has a tendency to “over-manipulate” the defense, instead of taking the obvious shot or pass. While this habit is endearing coming from an athletically-limited player like Boris (to which the “obvious” lane might not be so easy!), it can be maddening to watch Amen attempt 3 fake passes and end up with an off-balance floater attempt on a drive where he could’ve simply finished over his defender with a head of steam if he attacked with enough gusto. 

If Amen never becomes a viable shooter, it could be difficult to give him a high usage role as a half-court creator. His biggest problem would then become how to leverage his unique physical and processing gifts without utilizing him as a traditional initiator. Diaw’s role as a funky short roller could provide some inspiration here — while neither of the two fit the physical description for a dominant PnR partner,  both are special enough at *something* on the court to cast aside usual thresholds. For Boris, it was his elite connective decision making paired with the Suns array of knockdown shooters. For Amen, his explosiveness in space could allow him to function as a high-volume roller, even without the typical length or strength of a typical PnR big. Especially on his rookie contract, using Amen as a short roller would be a useful offensive wrinkle to scheme him into open runways and decision making opportunities, before his handle is refined enough to consistently generate those looks against point-of-attack pressure. If he doesn’t shoot, The long term vision for Amen’s role in the half court is hazy, but mixing in possessions as a roller could be part of the solution. 

Wings who narrowly missed the cut for this article (but will feature in future entries of the series!): Ausar Thompson, Dillon Mitchell, Anthony Black

What Did We Learn?

The broadest takeaway I have from my time watching Diaw is how important it is for non-shooting wings to find an alternative way to command defensive attention off the ball. For many of the prospects that I’ll cover in this series, their effectiveness on possessions where they actively contribute to the shot attempt isn’t the issue! The problem is the time they spend off the ball as a passive negative, since they can be disregarded on the perimeter. Because of this, finding a niche in the half-court that a NSW can slide into as a net neutral (or even slight negative) can be hugely impactful. Diaw did this by becoming a roller and DHO operator, even when his body type and pre-NBA play style didn’t line up with that role. I sense that each historical player we’ll cover in this series will find a unique solution of their own that allows them to spend minimal time uninvolved in possessions on the offensive end. 

The post Making Non-Shooting Wings Work: Part 1 – Boris Diaw appeared first on Swish Theory.

Devin has been an impactful off-ball defender since he entered the league thanks to his surprising length and anticipation. He doesn’t have an eye-popping number of steals and blocks but is consistently getting his hand on the ball for deflections and mucking up passing lanes for offenses. Couple that with solid timing and verticality when protecting the rim and you have an incredibly high level team defensive wing capable of playing in a variety of different roles.

On-ball Vassell has occasional venus flytrap moments, engulfing smaller ball handlers with his quickness and length. He is quick laterally but can struggle to flip his hips and when navigating screens, both on and off the ball. Devin’s slender frame makes it more difficult for him to handle the contact of a well-set screen, often resulting in a difficult rear-side contest or a forced switch. He has great tools recovering to contest shots, but relying on that consistently is a slippery slope. Learning to wriggle around screens is a skill-set that comes with time, but is a necessary development for him to reach a higher level defensive outcome.

Offensively Vassell has had flashes of brilliance shooting from both beyond the arc and in the mid-range but struggled to score efficiently on a consistent basis. His shot from three is more versatile than your typical 3-D wing, as the team regularly uses actions to run him off screens and get him open on the move. Converting three point attempts off of movement at a higher clip is an essential first step towards improving his overall efficiency. He has the volume at over 7 attempts per game, but 36% from distance is not high enough to buoy the rest of his offensive game.

Devin is a talented shot-creator in the mid-range with a reliable turnaround jumper at the elbow but was incredibly reliant on it, taking over twice as many mid-range attempts as shots at the rim. He has struggled to create rim attempts with any regularity, even out of ball-screen scenarios. Vassell is a solid athlete, but an unremarkable one and this is where it shows most. Without a powerful frame or elite short-area quickness Devin has had difficulties finishing through traffic in the half court which has ultimately resulted in an unideal shot diet. He looks to have added a significant amount of weight to his frame this off-season, time will tell if that helps him alter his shot diet.

Where Devin does shine when operating ball screens is his pull-up shooting and growing passing acumen. He has a high enough release point to where contests rarely matter, he is able to shoot over nearly anyone. As he has gotten more reps he has become more consistent finding open shooters on the perimeter and creating quality looks for his teammates. He doesn’t have the scoring gravity to be a high leverage option here, but the ancillary skills are there.

If Devin is able to increase his rim frequency he could be in for a sizable leap as a creator. If that doesn’t come around Vassell should continue to profile as a valuable and versatile defensive-minded wing with quick decision making and impressive shot versatility on the perimeter.

The post Devin Vassell appeared first on Swish Theory.

The date is October 31st, 1986. 

The Oprah Winfrey Show had just begun its first season on television, gas was $0.89/gallon, Europe was grappling with the environmental disaster of the Chernobyl nuclear plant meltdown and the United States was still recovering from the shock and horror of the Challenger explosion broadcast live on National Television. 

This was the last time the San Antonio Spurs began an NBA season in a situation like the one they currently find themselves in. There was little reason for hope entering the year, the team had nothing resembling a star on their roster and the road to acquiring one went only one way, lottery luck. The team finished the year 28-54 with the 4th worst record in the league before finding themselves in the most fortuitous of situations, at the top of the draft with a generationally talented big man waiting to hear his name called. 

The selection of David Robinson changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next 30 years, even if he didn’t debut in the league until 1989. In the two years after his selection the team continued to lose but hope remained on the horizon, sailing the ocean blue aboard the deck of the USS Stormes. 

The first seven years of the Robinson-led Spurs were prosperous yet ultimately futile on their journey towards title contention. It wasn’t until the 1996-97 season where the team suffered a rash of injuries that the Spurs found themself in the lottery race once again, culminating in an unprecedented opportunity to add another franchise cornerstone to their existing core. The rest is now, quite literally, basketball history. 

Here we are 36 years later, and the team has finally found their way back to where they started, entering a season where the definition of success is intertwined with a random game of chance.  While the immediate outlook for this team may appear bleak, the current foundation of this Spurs roster is uniquely constructed for one of the more interesting tanking experiments in recent memory. This roster is not lacking in developmental talent nor is it lacking in youth. There are pieces currently on this roster that may prove to be invaluable to a competitive Spurs team in the future. First, they need to find their North Star, a talent the team can revolve around on their road back to contention.

Many teams entering a rebuild strip the team down to the studs and send off their parts to the highest bidder. From the Process 76ers to the Sam Presti Thunder, rebuilds have taken a new shape: get rid of everything that isn’t tied down and accumulate as much draft equity as possible.    

The Spurs are trying to walk the thin line between a total tear-down and a soft reboot, a decision that could prove to be fortuitous with the help of a little lottery luck. This team has roster depth 2 through 5 that few other tanking teams in the league have with young starting-caliber players across every position. With modern wings, versatile defenders, perimeter shooters and connective pieces San Antonio has many of the parts required to build a competitive team. The roster is flush with complimentary pieces that still have room for substantive growth. What they don’t have at this moment in time is a creator, someone they can build their roster around, a star to give them their identity. 

San Antonio was one of the worst teams in the clutch last season, even with Dejounte Murray leading the charge. They had very few avenues to create easy offense when they needed it, resulting in heartbreaking losses and blown leads all throughout the 2021-22 season. Teams can remain competitive the first 46 minutes of a game through scheme and effort but when the going gets tough in the final minutes of a close game you need someone to put the ball in the hoop. Not having that piece may be the single most valuable tool for a team in the tank race. 

In this piece I will be diving into each and every player on the roster and looking at not only how they project to perform this season but the role they play in the Spurs rebuild as a whole. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle that already exist on this roster, they just need to be put into their proper place.

Every roster needs a keystone, a foundational piece to build around, but what happens if the rest of the structure is already in place by the time it arrives? It’s time to start building.      

https://open.spotify.com/track/232OU9BBulVY9PrCBH778j?si=b7de6b2d15344556

When Opportunity Rings

This summer has had a strange feeling to it, in many ways the final steps of a journey that began over 4 years ago.

On a larger scale, this is the inevitable end that we first saw glimpses of back in 2011 when the Spurs lost a physical first– round series against the Grizzlies. The team finished the regular season at 61-21, enough to earn the top seed in the West but father time began to rear its head, resulting in 1 of only 5 1-8 seed upsets in NBA history. Manu was struggling to stay on the court consistently, Tim was sauntering around with a bad leg and Tony wasn’t enough to keep the championship dreams afloat.

That team was granted an extension on their tanking deadline by adding a budding superstar in Kawhi Leonard, but a state of perpetual contention was not meant to be. The team was able to rally around their existing structure to build one of the most euphoric sports moments I will ever experience. Their title season in 2014 was as much about the existing Big 3 as it was their newest superstar, creating an enormous expectation even after the existing pillars began to fall. As the Big 3 rode off into the sunset, the team continued to build for contention, but unbeknownst to them a certain Slim Reaper was looking to change teams, ultimately creating the most overwhelming collection of talent in NBA history. The way was shut.

There just wasn’t enough in the cupboard after two decades of contention. The team had a true-blue star but little else to build around in the future. Ultimately, it was not enough to retain their greatest developmental success story.

When Kawhi forced his way out of San Antonio the trade market looked much different than it does today. Teams held on to first– round picks, even protected ones, like precious family heirlooms. Jimmy Butler was traded for Dario Saric and Robert Covington; Paul George was traded for Victor Oladipo and a fledgling Domantas Sabonis with no first-round picks conveyed in either deal.

The Kawhi trade was the end of an era, the last star trade of a buyer’s market. Conditions then shifted to favor sellers by the fortunate circumstances bestowed upon OKC and New Orleans, along with the remarkable success of the Kawhi trade for Toronto.

That trade, even considering the trade environment of the time, was disappointing. This is not to say the package received was lacking value or was even a poor deal given what was available. Reports throughout the trade saga and after confirmed Boston would not trade either of Brown or Tatum, the Lakers would not trade Lonzo or Ingram, the Clippers would only give up Tobias Harris and one of their firsts (they owned both 12+13), and that was just about the entire market. The deal itself was not bad given the options out there, but it was bad in that it delayed the inevitable. It avoided making the tough but necessary decision to rebuild.

The team toiled in mediocrity every season since, but with each passing year they drew closer and closer to a true rebuild. This mini-era started with a hard fought seven-game series against the Nuggets in 2019 and has gone downhill ever since. They were never able to get over the play-in hump due to a roster construction that simply lacked the two-way players necessary for making a real playoff run.

Now, here we are after four years of chasing playoff (or play-in) appearances with nary a whiff of contention. Yet, the future is as bright and exciting as we have seen since an ill-fated encounter with the Georgian who shall not be named. What is different this time around in the wake of a franchise altering trade? Despite the same feeling of angst over the loss of a homegrown star, this time a direction was firmly decided upon, and the compensation was much more in line with the value of the player being traded. San Antonio was finally able to reap the rewards of the trade market they helped to create. 

There is a very real possibility that owning the Atlanta draft from 2025-2027 (two unprotected firsts and an unprotected swap) becomes one of the highest valued trade assets on the market. Dejounte has two years remaining on his deal, and if things don’t go according to plan the situation in Atlanta could get ugly fast.

Now there is certainly the chance those picks end up being in the late 20s and Atlanta is a genuine contender in perpetuity, but that is far from set in stone. Either way, the Spurs will have the draft assets needed to make nearly any move they deem necessary over the next few years. They own all their firsts, the 2025 protected first from Chicago, 2023 protected first from Charlotte and the above-mentioned Atlanta picks. Their value to San Antonio is more than just what they will become, it is about the flexibility it grants them before they even convey.

For the first time since 1997 the Spurs will enter the great abyss of the tank race, and while the roster may lack an MVP level talent a la David Robinson, there are a few similarities I find to be important when analyzing the path forward for the club. There is plenty of young talent on this roster already as the team has spent the last four years drafting and developing players who should have long careers in the league. Despite this collection of talent San Antonio may end up with the worst record in the league and a chance at landing a franchise altering talent.

This is a 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs encyclopedia: we will be covering anything and everything you need to know about one of the league’s premier franchises finally turning the page and entering the tank race. Can a team be built to lose and built to rebound at the same time? Let’s find out.  

Waiting in the Wings

This current roster is bereft of “star” talent and is most likely going to finish in the bottom five of the standings this year. While the idea of a full blown rebuild may sound bleak to some, the foundation is laid for a quicker turnaround than one might expect. Even with Dejounte this team lacked a straw that truly stirred the drink, needing a true 1A to push them over the play-in hump. This draft is as good as any to find that piece, and the team’s decision to maximize their chances of doing so by trading the one true advantage creator on the roster is, by all accounts, the best opportunity the Spurs have to create a true contender.

Most rebuilds are a multi-year project as the team is stripped down to the studs to begin the painstaking process of starting from scratch. Fortunately for San Antonio there are pieces on the roster that project as long-term impact rotation players, pieces that should easily fit on the next great Spurs team, all while lacking the necessary skills to drag this team out of the doldrums for this upcoming season.

Each of the players in this section are by no means lacking upside, but their existing skill sets are more conducive to success when playing off a star. Their importance to this team is not tied to the small percentage of outcomes where they themselves become a star but in their ability to jump-start the journey back to respectability once one is added. This isn’t to undersell their potential, any one of these guys could hit in a franchise altering way, but even if they were to do so their growth shouldn’t drastically change the outlook of the team this season.  These four should allow the Spurs to have their tanking cake and eat it too. 

Keldon Johnson

The case for growth from Keldon is a simple, albeit difficult one. He played much of last year in an off-ball role with relatively limited opportunity to explore the studio space with the ball in his hands. Coming off a four-year $80 million extension there will be a much greater investment in Keldon moving forward, both financially and developmentally.

In his one season with the Austin Spurs, Keldon looked like a different player, running a ton of pick and rolls and playing as the primary scoring option for the team. He scored 20 points a game while shooting 60% on 2s. He was a battering ram getting to the rim, stronger than anyone he came across even as a 19-year-old rookie playing against grown men. Keldon wasn’t a proactive playmaker, but he showed the ability to make basic reads out of ball-screen actions, an area in which he has continued to improve in San Antonio despite an increased difficulty to get easy buckets.  

Keldon’s on-ball creation has not translated to the next level as he has experienced more than a few issues finishing in traffic and dealing with contests from true rim protectors. It hasn’t been the smoothest sailing within the arc, but his growth shooting the ball this season was nothing short of remarkable. If he is forcing real closeouts he becomes an entirely different type of offensive weapon, and one that would fit with nearly any lineup construction in the league.

The path forward looks a lot cleaner now that the shot has started to fall. Any improvement in off-the-dribble shot creation or finishing craft could push him into fringe All-Star consideration. His defensive impact certainly has a long way to go, particularly in terms of rotational awareness, but he is at the very least able to bang with bigger forwards and has shown flashes of promise guarding on the perimeter. He doesn’t have the instincts or measurables of a true impact defender but getting to the point where he is no longer negatively impactful feels well within the realm of possibility. 

Keldon entered camp with a dislocated shoulder and a slimmer frame, telling media he dropped over 20 pounds this off-season. That is an enormous development that should not be understated when projecting his role on this team and beyond. He has never been the fleetest of foot on either end, shedding this weight could help him on both in terms of on-ball creation and defensive impact. Keldon is a natural wing and seeing the front office, coaching staff and player aligned on that front is an overwhelmingly positive thing. If he can improve his first step, shiftiness or defensive mobility he could be in store for a larger growth leap than originally anticipated.

At this point in time Keldon is ideally suited as a secondary scorer, someone who feasts off advantages created for him. There is a chance he blossoms into a true initiator, but Keldon doesn’t need that high of an outcome to remain valuable. He will look great next to any star he plays with through his competitive nature, floor spacing and fearlessness attacking closeouts. Keldon doesn’t need to be the star of the team, but he may need one beside him to truly flourish. 

Devin Vassell

The impact Devin brings goes much further than efficiency numbers or the box score. He hasn’t put up enormous stats offensively and in reality, hasn’t even shot that well considering his billing entering the league. What he has done is provide an ideal complementary skill set for any starting five in basketball. He isn’t a lock-down defender on the ball, but he is more than adequate defending 1-3 while possessing great instincts as a help defender on the perimeter and at times as a secondary or tertiary rim protector.

His defensive skillet is an ideal fit in any positive context as he works as a catalyst that is more effective when surrounded with the proper ingredients. Unfortunately, he did not have said ideal context in San Antonio playing next to both Keldon and Doug McDermott but that may be beginning to change with the roster additions the team made this summer.

On the offensive end, Vassell again provides a tailor-made complementary skill set with his ability to space the floor, shoot off movement and keep the ball moving. There have been real flashes of shot-making off the bounce and even some fun passing when getting to initiate some of the offense, but his ability to get to and finish around the rim has been less than stellar. With an increased role in the offense and a large burden on-ball we should learn a lot about Devin’s game this season. His shot creation package deserves more opportunity for growth.

While there is real upside here on both sides of the ball, what makes Vassell such a valuable cog in the rebuild is that there are a variety of potential outcomes where he provides a positive impact.  As is, Devin is a positive spacing the floor in spot-up and movement situations while providing impactful team defense. If he shows any improvement in his handle, allowing him to provide additional rim pressure or shot creation, the value add becomes exponentially greater. Conquer the complex art of screen navigation? Now we might have something special.

Vassell will have a greater impact on-court as the pieces around him improve in quality due to his already proficient complementary skill set. Couple that with his potential on both ends of the court and there are few players on this roster better suited to be a foundational piece of this rebuild going forward. Vassell should see a major leap in his usage next season, and we will get a clearer picture as to what his future holds. Regardless of how this season goes, Vassell will be an important part of the puzzle this front office is looking to build.  

Jeremy Sochan

Drafting Sochan at ninth overall this season was hardly surprising given his projected fit with the existing young core. This team has desperately needed a positive defensive presence at the four for as long as I can remember and they finally took the plunge with their first top-10 pick this millennia.

Sochan was relatively unheralded entering his freshman year at Baylor, ranking outside of the top 100 in his recruiting class. He jumped on to the draft scene early in the season with impressive displays guarding in space, rotating on the perimeter, initiating sets and even hitting a few turnaround jumpers.

The offense has a very long way to go, but there is reason for hope. Jeremy Sochan is anything but bashful and his confidence to continue to put up shots and play hard even when the ball isn’t going through the hoop will go a long way. It will take a while before he can score at any kind of an impactful level, if ever, but in the meantime his existing skill set will allow him to play as a connector on both ends. He makes quick decisions with the ball, reads the court well and (in what will almost certainly make him a fan favorite from day one), plays with competitiveness and effort every second he is on the court.

He is aggressive when crashing the glass, can switch onto both smaller and larger players while intuitively knowing where to be at all times. What he lacks in run and jump athleticism he makes up for in lateral quickness and anticipation. The Spurs started Keldon and Doug McDermott together for much of this season and it led to some atrocious defensive results. Sochan offers a different look, someone at the forward spot whose defensive motor never stops, finding ways to win battles somewhere in the margins.

Despite being surrounded by players like Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl, the weight of two negative defenders playing together at the forward spots all but sunk the chances of an above average defense. The position is too valuable defensively to get nothing from it and adding Sochan should help tremendously. His rotational soundness and competitive nature should be synergistic playing next to Keldon and Devin rather than the previous parasitic roster construct.  Even if the scoring never truly comes around, Sochan should have no problem seeing the court and providing a positive impact for the entirety of his career in San Antonio.

What a Young Vet Brings

While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.

There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high. 

There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.   

While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.

There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high. 

There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.   

Jakob Poeltl

Jakob has been solid since the day he arrived in San Antonio. Not the longest or most explosive athlete, Poeltl is another guy who wins with anticipation and awareness. His play as a roller this year was encouraging; he may struggle at the line but is impressive finishing around the basket for someone who is primarily a below the rim finisher.

What interests me most about Jakob has been his passing growth in recent years. He averaged nearly 3 assists a game this year and in retrospect that number feels low.  Jakob was one of the league leaders in touches at the elbow last season and was consistently asked to read the floor and make smart decisions with the ball. Jakob was much more of a fulcrum for the offense than years past and the results were largely positive. He made great passes to shooters as a roll man and as a hub at the top of the key throughout the year.

While he isn’t getting guarded as a shooter, allowing him to run a  DHO forces his man to stretch out to Jakob or risk a wide open three with no avenue to contest.  Once that happens, he can make passes or even put the ball on the deck and beat his man to the rim when given proper spacing.  Seeing a seven-footer dribble into a body-contorting layup isn’t something you see every day and offers a unique avenue for usage. It’s a fun way to try and space the floor with a center who can’t shoot, and it helps open up the court for his passing beyond simply finding the shooter involved in the DHO.

With the recent departures of Derrick White, Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker, this team has lost an enormous chunk of playmaking. Leaning on a steady vet presence like Jakob to create offense in a more nontraditional way may be the best option for creating a system functional enough to help develop the young wings on the roster.

Beyond his current fit on the court, Jakob is someone I hope sticks around through the rebuild. Yes, he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but he will be entering a marketplace where big men of his caliber make a modest amount more than the mid-level but rarely anything approaching $20 million/year. I would be doing anything and everything I could to extend him before the season starts (4/51 is roughly the max they can offer him in an extension this off-season). A deal in the ballpark of 4/50 to 4/65 seems like a workable construct for both sides.  Despite his inability to shoot the ball Jakob is an above average starting center and should continue to be through the life of his next contract.

Even if the team were to win the lottery and draft Victor Wembanyama, Poeltl would fill a valuable role on the team. Any team that drafts Victor next year will make keeping him healthy a priority. Nobody is going to trot Wemby out as a 19-year-old and ask him to guard true centers night in and night out as there is no benefit to putting him through that kind of physical grind. On the offensive end the fit should be just as smooth if the shot continues to improve, and his recent performance overseas certainly helps that potentiality. 

Jakob is never going to be so good he wins you too many games or stands in the way of a young prospect getting minutes, but he is good enough to be a driving force to continuity and competence on both sides of the ball. That is exactly the kind of cost controlled 26-year-old I want around my rebuilding team. I would understand trading him to continue adding future assets, but it would take more than a late 1st round pick for me to feel comfortable moving him and I don’t see that kind of package on the market this season. 

You don’t have to sell every good basketball player in a rebuild and certainly not players that still fit in your existing timeline.  Having an above average starting center already in place will go a long way in creating a competent structure on this roster throughout the rebuilding process.

Tre Jones

Jones, a second-round pick entering the final season of his 3-year contract, would be my guess for who is spearheading the Spurs offense come October.

If there is one thing this team is lacking, it is rim pressure. While Vassell has shown an ability to create some offense off the bounce it has resulted in almost exclusively contested dribble jumpers. White and Murray were the only two Spurs to consistently self-create rim attempts last year; with both gone the team will need someone to initiate sets and get two feet in the paint for their drive-and-kick offensive system to have any semblance of success. Despite his relatively diminutive frame, Tre is the best bet to provide that on a consistent basis this season.

Unlike anyone else on this roster, Tre has spent his entire life playing point and running an offense. He was an All-American at Duke his sophomore year where he was one of the best players in the country. At the pro level he played well, leading the team in Austin his rookie season before slowly earning a spot in the rotation this year, filling in the injury gaps as they arose.

Tre isn’t going to be draining pull-up jumpers or leading the team in scoring, but the skillset he provides fits like a glove with what this roster needs. He is on the smaller side but is incredibly quick with more than enough craft getting to and finishing at the rim, putting defenses into rotation and getting the ball moving around the perimeter. Tre finished the year with a nearly 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, a remarkable number that placed him at 4^th in the entire league. He very rarely makes poor decisions with the ball in his hands and has done an excellent job of running the offense when given the chance, particularly in transition settings.

At his best, Tre is the perfect game manager PG that should find a role as a third guard on any roster. The shooting needs to come along but there is reason to be optimistic. He has good touch on his floater in the lane, was a good mid-range shooter in college and is a career 80% FT shooter. He doesn’t have to create threes off the bounce consistently, but if he can punish defenders for going under screens even occasionally, that would be a huge win for his on-court impact.

On the defensive side of the ball Jones has the lateral quickness and pesky hands to be an impactful defender at the point of attack but his screen navigation will need to take major strides for that to truly come to fruition. He has some cool moments sticking his hands in and disrupting ball handlers but too often runs directly into screens or ends up trailing the ball handler with no avenue to disrupt the play. Given his smaller frame and limited wingspan, recovering to contest from behind isn’t an option. For Jones to truly be a good point-of-attack defender he will need to be excellent slithering through screens and staying with ball-handlers. Whether that is in the cards remains to be seen, but it is one thing I will be looking for as the season kicks into gear.

Tre strikes me as someone who should be on this team for the foreseeable future. He is entering his third year in the league but has made it into this “Young Vet” section by the soundness of his game and the steadying presence he should provide to this young core. He will be a useful rotation piece as a bench guard for a good team one day but in the meantime his ball security, rim pressure and heady defense make him a great fit alongside any of the young wings on the roster. Players need proper context in order to develop and while Tre may not project as the long-term answer to “Who is the Point Guard of the future?” question, his steady-handed competence should help put Keldon, Devin and Sochan in a better developmental context this season.

Isaiah Roby

Roby was an intriguing addition to the roster this off-season. He had a solid run with OKC the past two years and is the kind of player I have been wanting the Spurs to sign for nearly a decade.

NBA defense is a complicated mess of variables that can be difficult to distinguish from one another, but if one thing has proven true in San Antonio over the last four years it is that having rim protection and point of attack defense alone is not enough to build a playoff caliber defense.

Dejounte and Derrick White made up what was possibly the best defensive backcourt in the league to begin last season with Jakob Poeltl manning the paint as a Top-10 rim protector, but even with those three on the court the Spurs struggled to cobble together a league average defense. These three musketeers could not do the job alone and ultimately were sunk by significantly below league average forward defense. It didn’t help they lacked a good option for rolling out small-ball lineups to try and keep up offensively.

Roby may not solve all these issues and by no means is he a flawless defensive player, but he does offer a package of skills this team has desperately needed for a long time. He is an athletic forward who thrived the past two years playing at the five in small ball lineups. OKC was by no means a winning context, but he was far and away their best option at the center spot for a few different reasons.

Roby moves incredibly well for someone his size. His flexibility on drives was impressive and he had flashes of finishing craft around the hoop. Most NBA big men cannot keep up with him on the perimeter and he was able to use his handle to get to the rim in advantageous situations. He became a much more effective shooter from beyond the arc this year and that progress will need to continue in the Lone Star State for him to have a similar offensive impact.

He’s shown an ability to pass out of the short-roll and was largely successful as a dive man playing in OKC. He has a size disadvantage playing at the five, but his length and athleticism help make up for the size mismatch when finishing in the paint. He isn’t someone I would ever want starting at the five, but he should allow for the team to throw out some funky bench lineups with defensive versatility, something San Antonio has been unable to do in the recent past.

Roby is a decent rim protector, event creator and rebounder for a hybrid big and his athleticism should allow for some interesting usage on the defensive side of the floor. In the grand scheme of things, he was put in a good situation to develop on-court in OKC but, due to their roster constraints, was put in some compromising positions he shouldn’t have to deal with on a more complete roster. Roby is the kind of guy I love having around in a rebuild; young and affordable with an understanding for the game and how to use his body that can translate in a multitude of lineups. He isn’t someone I would project to start for the next good Spurs team, but I think he has more than proved to be a capable rotation piece at the NBA level. Having functional athletes at the forward spot is an incredibly important aspect of teambuilding and this off-season showed a newfound commitment to finding those missing pieces. The Spurs didn’t morph into the Toronto Raptors overnight but adding multiple players that can feasibly guard opposing 4s is an enormous step toward building an effective defense in the future.

Taking Upside Swings

San Antonio entered the draft this year with three first- round picks, something I would not have believed to start the season. While the team took a safer approach with their first pick in taking Jeremy Sochan, they swung for the fences with their next two selections. Those picks, coupled with a heady signing last off-season, will round out this upside swing section. 

The success of the rebuild goes beyond the development of these three, but it could look drastically different if even one is able to reach a higher-end outcome. Taking calculated risks is the name of the game for small market teams with little avenue to acquire a star in the free agent market. While they are much more of a gamble than a sure thing, sometimes all you need is a little luck.

Malaki Branham

Branham was one of the names rising up draft boards as the college season ended and for good reason.  He had one of the most efficient freshman seasons scoring the basketball in recent memory at 14 points per game with shooting splits of 50/42/83.  Be it out of isolation, running a pick and roll or spotting up on the perimeter, Branham put the ball in the hoop at an eye-catching rate, consistently torching Big 10 defenses the second half of the season.

Upside is an interesting and complicated term to define. Many people gravitate towards athleticism when talking about players who have substantial growth potential, but it is rarely that simple. I tend to look towards players who have outlier indicators, from athleticism to coordination to shooting touch. Outlier growth potential is the proverbial Waldo for which you are searching when projecting who could outperform their draft position. Branham’s touch fits the bill, as few players enter the league with such a positive shooting projection. Branham’s ability to shoot, regardless of the contest, offers the potential for unexpected growth..

He is going to shoot the ball, but to what degree? Will he develop into someone who can consistently create his own shot? Is he going to be able to hit pull up threes with regularity? Branham’s touch is such an outlier it is hard not to project development in other areas. Does the touch forebode future handle development? There allure of pull-up shot making potential is there, but there will need to be some amount of unexpected improvement in his handle.

There are two things I will be looking for this season when watching Branham, starting with the growth of his handle. It was functional at the college level for what he was asked to do but he very rarely self-created attempts at the rim and doesn’t have much of a space creation bag. Is he going to be able to dribble against NBA level defenders closing out to his jumper? Will he be able to run a pick and roll without losing control of the ball from a well-timed dig? Is he going to be able to operate in confined spaces?

Handle development is not something that comes overnight but it is possible with proper time and attention. For Branham to hit his highest-level outcomes he is going to need to not only create space for jumper but create advantages for others. He is an effective and willing passer, but passing windows close when you don’t put the defense into rotation. If his creation doesn’t improve to that level, he should still be a positive offensive player simply from the floor spacing he provides.   

The last question revolves around his defensive impact. He was okay defending in isolation at Ohio State but really struggled to navigate screens both on and off-ball. If the potential for becoming an on-ball creator offensively begins to look less likely he will need to become an average defender at worst to be a high impact rotation piece. Unless we are talking about the elite, offensive specialists need to have some amount of defensive impact to truly contribute to winning basketball, particularly in a playoff setting. Branham has a skill set that could translate into a productive complimentary role with time, but will he have the necessary growth defensively to make that worthwhile for his team? 

Blake Wesley

Watching Notre Dame basketball this season was quite the roller coaster, an up and down experience captained by one Blake Wesley. Outside of Jaden Ivey there may not have been anyone else in this class that was as effective at getting into the paint as Wesley. Amongst High-Major athletes that attempted at least 150 shots at the rim last season Wesley had the 10^th lowest assisted percentage at 27%. There is no skill more important to a competent NBA offense than rim pressure, something this current Spurs roster exceedingly lacks.

Wesley is an interesting fit alongside Devin Vassell as he provides a needed downhill spark. The only issue with his college tape was how the ball just did not go through the hoop as often as you would like, and with a shooting split of 47/30/66, that may be an understatement. Wesley ranked second to last in rim efficiency amongst all drafted players, shooting a paltry 51.2%.

This season is going to be an incredibly interesting one for Wesley and where he spends most of his time will be telling as to how the team views his starting point. This roster needs someone with his ability to get to the rim and force defensive rotations but more than that, they need an offensive system that is conducive to positive development for their young wings. 

Wesley was a whirlwind of energy at Notre Dame and while it led to some astounding highlights there is reason to wonder how well it immediately translates to NBA basketball. His shot is going to require serious refinement over the next few years, but he is not shy about getting up shots despite his relative inefficiency. Giving the keys to Wesley is an interesting proposition that would likely help the Spurs towards their goal of obtaining the highest possible draft pick, but it may not be best for his development or the teammates around him.

Decision making is going to make or break Wesley’s time here in San Antonio; if he can be trusted to find open teammates and trim the fat from his shot diet he will fit like a glove in this offensive system. Wesley’s development as a creator is the biggest variable in the direction of this rebuild. If he hits, the team has their point guard of the future and one that fits seamlessly with their surrounding talent. If not, it may be difficult for him to find a consistent spot in the rotation moving forward, even on a rebuilding team.

Wesley’s on-court projected impact is buoyed by his defensive effort and intensity. Very few guards with his level of usage and lack of experience can provide a positive impact on the defensive end, making his season at Notre Dame all the more impressive. There are certainly some loose moments, but his lateral athleticism, length and anticipation allow him to disrupt an offense in a variety of ways. He will need to grow in terms of consistency, but if he is able to continue to grow, we may be looking at the next great Spurs defender at the point guard spot, following in the footsteps of the often-comped Dejounte Murray.

I am a Wesley believer and hope he gets time this year to work through some of the kinks, even if that time is best spent in Austin rather than San Antonio. He’s the kind of upside swing this team needed to take, and fortunately the Spurs have a wealth of experience in developing skinny, lightning quick guards with a penchant for flashy highlights. The necessary growth is going to take time and will be a bumpy road at times, but the confidence and energy that Wesley exudes on the court should help him to weather the storms of his development path.

Zach Collins

Collins was signed in San Antonio last off-season in a deal that was relatively controversial at the time. Still only 23, the former top 10 pick had his career derailed by injuries and spent nearly 2 full seasons on the sidelines before suiting up for the team midway through last season. His first year in San Antonio was not particularly effective due to the sheer amount of rust that needed to be worked off, but the flashes were there of what once made him one of the more intriguing young big men in the game.

Collins has the potential to be versatile on both ends of the court, stretching the floor on offense and making good passing reads while defending the rim and switching out on to the perimeter. The only problem is, he didn’t truly excel in any of these areas last year. In fact, every area will need serious improvement to become functional at an NBA level. 

As we enter the new season the thing I will be watching most closely is his how his body has recovered. Staying healthy will remain a concern for the foreseeable future, but beyond that, is he going to look more comfortable moving out on the court?  He seemed to have lost some of his lateral quickness after recovering from a series of lower body injuries, but with a fully healthy off-season there is hope he could return closer to his previous form.

His shot from the perimeter is another area that will need to make strides over the off-season. Collins is not a particularly efficient scorer in the paint for someone of his size and for him to have a positive offensive impact it would help to be a viable threat from distance. Having a center that can legitimately space the floor is worth its weight in gold, especially when trying to open the floor for more offensively limited wings and guards, but that is a high bar to reach.

Will Collins ever be able to shoot well enough to stretch opposing bigs away from the rim? The answer to that is a resounding “maybe,” although it is admittedly less likely to happen than the inverse. The shot looks good mechanically but there is a serious lack of confidence taking it that may be more indicative of his actual level as a shooter. It could happen, but there is a reason shooting centers are such a valuable resource. There just aren’t many players in the league who can do it at an impactful level. 

Collins is the ultimate second draft upside swing, if he is able to find his way back to the developmental arc he flashed in Portland it changes the entire dynamic of the roster.  It would allow for the team to shop Jakob Poeltl with the knowledge of having a feasible replacement already in house, a replacement with the potential to allow for more versatile schemes on both ends of the court.  By no means is that the likely outcome, but the potential reward makes the gamble all the more palatable. 

Valuing Short Term Flings

These guys aren’t going to be here when the Spurs exit their rebuild and start to make a run at the playoffs, but they still offer value to this team in the immediate. Having steady vets to set the tone for a young team is incredibly important for any rebuild and this one is no different.  

There is some amount of positional overlap with the vets in this section and the young guys the team is looking to develop. Their presence may limit the amount of playing time for some of the prospects on the roster, but they are not without worth to this team or, hopefully one day, on the trade market.

Doug McDermott

There is certainly value to having someone like McDermott on a team that is lacking scoring punch, even if his fit next to Keldon in the frontcourt is questionable at best. From the jump last year, you could tell the team was hell-bent on heavily involving McDermott in the offense and with that came mixed results. He endured a few brutal cold spells shooting from the floor but still ended the year at over 42% from three, an impressive number given how inconsistent it felt during the season.

He provided some much needed spacing early in the year, but his offensive impact did not make up for his negative defensive contributions. McDermott is not particularly good attacking the glass on either end of the court and was put in a TON of ball screen actions by opposing offenses. He provided a target for teams to attack both in space and off screens while the surrounding roster lacked the necessary help on the wings needed to make up for it. A lineup with Keldon and Doug at the forward spots simply did not get it done this year and while he does offer a release valve for an offense stuck in a rut, I would hope we see less of that combination in the coming season.

McDermott is signed for nearly $14 million per year over the next two years. That isn’t a terrible contract and is one that could easily be moved to a contender looking to improve their spacing, but at what cost? I highly doubt any team would be willing to give up even a heavily protected first to trade for him unless significant dead money were to come back to SA. Taking on bad money is a viable option considering the current state of the franchise, but it does make finding a workable deal more difficult.

Very few players choose to come to San Antonio in free agency and McDermott is one of the more noteworthy signings for the franchise in the last decade. That must be considered when cobbling together trade machine deals looking to offload the vet. In my eyes it would be bad practice to ship him out for little return unless he is particularly interested in playing on a different team.

Relationships matter in the league more than fans want to admit; there is a reason the team gave Pau Gasol a three-year deal at the tail end of his NBA career despite only having played one season in the Silver and Black. He chose to come to San Antonio when he didn’t have to, and the team wanted to repay that trust. I would expect to see a similar ethos in regards to McDermott’s future with the franchise. As much as I would love to lean into the young players we added at his position, I think the team will be hard pressed to move him. For a franchise that highly values character and loyalty, it’s easy to see why.

Only time will tell, but I expect him to be back next season unless he is a part of a larger deal and that is perfectly fine. As long as he is not playing 30+ minutes a game he should provide value on a roster devoid of spacing at the four and is by all means a pleasant person to have around. The sky is not falling if McDermott is still on the roster entering next off-season when he will become an expiring deal with significantly more trade value to opposing teams around the league.

Josh Richardson

When Derrick White was traded to Boston at the deadline this season it was one of the more shocking trades in recent Spurs memory. White had cemented himself as a fan favorite both on the court and in the community. As one of the most amicable people to ever come through San Antonio, it was difficult to see him traded but the move signaled this front office was finally seeing the writing on the wall.

The return, a first-round pick that would later become Blake Wesley, a Top-1 protected pick swap in 2028 and Josh Richardson felt like fair value at the time and could look even better in a year. Richardson was good during his time in San Antonio last year. He shot 44% from three, played solid defense and had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. The Spurs were significantly better with Richardson on the court this past season and I would expect that to continue.

Unlike McDermott, Richardson should have significant value on the trade market. He only has one year left on his deal so there should be more urgency to move him before this season’s deadline.  While he did provide a positive impact last season, it will be difficult to get San Antonio’s youth movement on the court if he is receiving the kind of minute load his output deserves.

Would a team give up a protected first for Richardson? I think that is entirely reasonable if the Spurs are willing to take on dead salary in his stead. He is a two-way wing that should be able to plug into any contender’s rotation and provide solid minutes off the bench or as a spot starter.

I really like his game and he has been a particularly good locker room fit with this team. I would love for him to play in San Antonio for the foreseeable future but that just does not feel like the best option for him or for the team. The team will most likely look to trade him during the season similar Thad Young last year but that is a precarious place to be. 

Last year was Richardson’s best season shooting the basketball of his entire career. If he were to fall from shooting 41% down to the 33-35% he shot the previous three seasons it will be a lot more difficult to find a trade package that makes sense. Sometimes it is best to strike when the iron is hot and this feels like one of those times, even if I would be sad to see him leave town.

Gorgui Dieng

Dieng is of a lower profile than rest of the bunch here due to his age and the relative lack of impact over the last few seasons but he will fill a valuable role nonetheless. This team has very little traditional size at the center position and having a third big that can play competent minutes is a major boon from where the team was last season.

The ideal scenario of Zack Collins staying healthy, improving after a season of getting his sea legs under him and holding down the backup center position all season feels very optimistic. There is a lot of “if” in that proposition, so adding a veteran that can play spot minutes or take over the backup five entirely is incredibly helpful.

Dieng has grown as a shooter late in his career, shooting 42% on over 6 attempts per 36 minutes and that comfortability beyond the arc should help him fit in to a variety of lineups next season. He is more paint-bound defensively but has been effective enough crashing the glass and defending the rim to remain a viable option off the bench.  What he lacks in upside he provides in consistent production, something that will be necessary as the Collins redemption tour hits the expected speed bumps. 

Teams struggle to put out competent lineups without a real big if they don’t have the requisite talent on the wings to make up for the size disadvantage, and San Antonio did not have that last year. They added quite a few pieces that could profile well into that role, but they are all young with little meaningful experience under their belts.

If one of Poeltl or Collins goes down with an injury (this will almost certainly happen with two seven-footers, it’s just hard to keep them healthy) Dieng will be a more than capable stopgap option. He won’t be long for the Alamo city, but he provides value in maintaining a workable structure when the players ahead of him miss time during the year.

Hoping for Nice Things

Our final section consists of guys on the cut line or who will be playing primarily with Austin next year. Unlike in years past, the team has filled out the back of the roster with viable rotation bets at valuable positions. How many of these guys will stick on the roster and how many will be left by the wayside? It is difficult to predict, but I fully expect at least one of these guys to play their way into being a part of the long-term plan for the team. If there is one thing all the players to followhave in common it is this; : they all need to improve shooting the basketball and those that don’t will have trouble finding the court in San Antonio.

Dominic Barlow

Dom Barlow is easily the person I am most looking forward to watching next year from this section. He entered his time at OTE as a fringe prospect but played his way onto draft boards throughout the course of the season. While the Spurs traded away their second round pick this year, signing Barlow as an UDFA more than made up for the loss of value. He is someone I wanted the team to take at 38 and should have a real chance to stick on this roster after signing a two-way deal this summer.

The sell for Barlow is a simple one: he moves well laterally for his size, knows where to be and has some tangible upside on the offensive end. He won’t turn 20 years old until May of 2023 so I would anticipate some rough patches during the season as he grows into his body and role on the court. I would not expect him to get a ton of run with the big club after the acquisitions of Sochan and Roby this off-season, but there is a real opportunity for him to grow into a valuable rotation cog for years to come.

He is not the most explosive athlete, particularly in the half court, but that should not be an enormous hindrance for his usage at the next level. The shot has a way to go but he was comfortable taking the occasional three in summer league and during his year at OTE. It looks good, though the volume leaves a lot to be desired. He isn’t going to get by defenders with his burst and as a result will need to force closeouts to provide any kind of rim pressure.  On the longer time horizon of a pending rebuild that feels like an attainable outcome that would vastly increase his chances of one day cracking the rotation.

I am most excited to see how he grows as a passer in the half court. He has a good feel for the game and vision for his position that should continue to blossom with experience in a more structured environment. If he can grow into a player that can make reads out of the short roll or operate as a semi-hub for the offense at the top of the key, his NBA translation becomes a lot cleaner. That feels like it could happen sooner than respectable shooting volume and I hope to see him have an opportunity to grow as a passer next year in Austin. 

Defensively Barlow was fine jumping passing lanes and disrupting offenses but what excites me most is his potential in switch situations or guarding larger wings on the perimeter.  As stated, this team hasn’t had anyone who can guard forward creators in a long time and now the roster is seemingly flush with viable options in the long run. I wish Barlow had a little more vertical pop when defending the rim but his ability to switch (in moderation) up and down the lineup should offer a pathway to a positive defensive impact as he grows into his body and role.

If Barlow can shoot it at any level, he should develop into a lower end rotation player with real upside past that if the pieces begin to come together offensively. The higher end outcomes with Barlow result in a player that can space the floor, make high-level reads as a roll man and take opposing big men off the bounce, all while providing increased defensive scheme versatility. That is the kind of player that can stick on a roster for a long time and someone I am glad the team decided to invest in immediately after the draft.

Jordan Hall

Jordan Hall is a playmaking forward prospect who might, like his patron saint Kyle Anderson, use his versatility to stake claim to a long-term spot in the Spurs rotation. He had two productive seasons at St. Joes with a versatile skill set for a player his size. Not the most athletic prospect, Hall is a more cerebral player who possesses real skill with the ball in his hands. Standing at 6’8”’ in shoes with an 8’8” standing reach, Hall has legitimate forward size while being able to run an offense, putting up over 5.5 assists per game both seasons in college.

His shot from three looks better on paper than it does on film but the volume (~6 per game) and efficiency (~36%) are encouraging. I expect it to take a little time for the shot to translate to a deeper line in the pros and playing against better defenders, but the ingredients are there for it to at least become passable. I am not overly enthused by this possibility, but it is clearly within the realm of potential outcomes.

Defensively Hall has good timing disrupting passing lanes and making plays. He is lighter than Barlow and will most likely be relegated to forward/wing minutes rather than shifting up to play the five but he should be able to provide heady and impactful defense there in time.

More than anything I am hoping Austin lets him run more of the offense this season. If there is one thing that sets Hall apart from other prospects of his ilk it is his ability to actually do something with the ball at his size. If that can be developed and refined to a workable level the team should have an interesting rotation piece moving forward.

Odds are only one of Barlow and Hall will stick on this roster long term, as is the nature of developing guys on two-way deals. I would feel more comfortable betting on Barlow due to his positional versatility and upside defensively, though both are fun and worthwhile bets to make. Forwards matter, it is nice to see the team taking shots on players at the most valuable position in the league. These are the gambles worth taking.

Joe Wieskamp

While there may have been options on the board I preferred to Wieskamp (Brandon Boston and Sharife Cooper in particular), it was hard to be upset about the selection. Taking second round swings on wing shooters is always a viable path and his athletic testing at the combine was genuinely impressive.

Last season wasn’t the most exciting in terms of his on-court production for either Austin or San Antonio, but Joe has shown an ability to fit in. The shot mechanics are a little slow and he had some difficulty getting up attempts at the rate you would prefer from a shooting specialist, something that will need to be addressed in the coming season.

What I will be watching for this season is twofold:, increased volume and increased versatility. He spent a lot of the season in Austin spotting up from deep and providing a safety valve for the offense which is a valuable skill but one that would require a much greater defensive impact to be viable at an NBA level.

I don’t foresee the defense coming along in a major way, as that just isn’t a development I would feel comfortable expecting. There are flashes of physicality when switched onto larger forwards but the lack of lateral quickness and help instincts makes me very hesitant to bet on a positive defensive outcome. Despite his impressive combine testing Wieskamp does not have the athleticism or wingspan typically found in impactful perimeter defenders nor the rotational instincts and technique needed to make up for it.

If that is true, his value is going to need to come on the other end of the court. Acting as a spot up shooter is nice but for him to provide the kind of impact necessary to carve out a rotation spot he will need to start putting greater strain on the defense by running off of actions and shooting off movement. I am not confident his mechanics will allow for that to happen but it does feel like the most likely pathway to regular minutes. The team signed him to a guaranteed deal for this season, but the pre-season has not been particularly encouraging. After not entering their final game of the pre-season I wouldn’t be surprised if Wieskamp is the final cut entering the season, despite his newly signed deal.

Keita Bates-Diop

KBD was one of my favorite players to watch from last season. He is incredibly long and simply knows where to be on the court. He moves well without the ball on offense and has an ability to find seams in a defense that can help cover for his lack of shooting.

That shooting is going to be the bellwether for if he makes the roster this coming season. It is hard to play him significant minutes next to Jakob if neither can space the floor, even if the defensive impact is a generally positive one. His length allows him to disrupt ball handlers and passing lanes alike, he’s intuitive on that end and handles his responsibilities well, but I am not sure that is enough to guarantee a roster spot.

He has grown on the offensive end during his time in San Antonio, finding a nice role as a cutter and off-ball mover despite his hesitance shooting from deep. He has worked well as a connective piece and has a penchant for making quick, sound decisions when he gets the ball. Bates-Diop is someone the coaching staff can trust to go out there and find seams in the defense regardless of the lineup, his versatility on both ends is his biggest strength and may be enough to earn a place on the opening day roster.

He has started the preseason more confident shooting the ball from distance. If that continues, he should lock up a rotation spot, much less a roster spot. This roster has a ton of new faces at his position, but you can never have too many forwards in today’s NBA.

Romeo Langford

Finally, we have reached the biggest wild card of the off-that isseason. Langford has struggled to stay on the court due to injury woes and struggled shooting the ball to start his career. He got so little opportunity on-court last season due to an ill-timed injury it is hard to determine how the franchise views him moving forward.

His lack of a consistent shot and the duplicative nature of his skill set with other young players on the roster lands him squarely on the cut line entering camp. SA is going to need to waive someone before the season starts and while Langford may have seemed like the most likely cut entering camp the pre-season has made that equation slightly more complicated.

He moves well defensive and is strong for his frame, he has done a good job defending perimeter scorers and may be the person best suited on the roster for such a task. I still don’t entirely buy the jump shot, but his ability to defend and provide some amount of rim pressure leaves room for some additional upside if he sticks around into the season.

It is difficult to see him earning his way into the rotation even if the team has significant injury problems. Vassell, Branham, Wesley and Richardson should all be ahead of him on the depth chart, offering little opportunity for playing time. Langford has an interesting archetype with his on-ball defense and creation potential shown in college, but the shot has never come around and without it the options for on-court usage are minimal. Langford is an interesting project who I would like to find a home on a roster somewhere if he is cut from San Antonio, there is more developmental meat on the bone here than most players near the bottom of the depth chart.

Back to Chasing Rings

To quote the modern poet Doctur Dot “Just yesterday, I had everything. Everything was nothing, but I ain’t complain”. There is not another song lyric in existence to better describe the situation the Spurs found themself entering this off-season.  Trading away yet another developmental success story was hard, but despite how impressive Dejounte’s growth was last year it did not significantly alter the outlook of this team.  At the time it felt like everything, but in reality, it was probably closer to nothing if the end goal is championship contention.   

Building a contender is a long and arduous process that requires more than just accumulating talent.  It is about finding not just any star to lead your franchise; it’s about finding the RIGHT star to build your future around.  A team spearheaded by Dejounte, Keldon, Devin and the three rookies very well could have made a playoff push in the coming years, but even the most optimistic fan would tell you the odds of becoming a true contender were close to none. Brian Wright and Company decided pulling the rug out from under this current nucleus was the best option moving forward despite what it meant for the on–court product during what may be Greg Popovich’s last season. I find that to be generally good business.

In my living memory this team has never been in such a dramatic state of flux and that is a good thing. The roster was going to need drastic changes to reach the kind of heights they have set out to achieve and making those decisions sooner rather than later should benefit them in the long run.

Extending Keldon this off-season was a telling move about where this front office thinks the team is and their general philosophy surrounding the rebuild. Retaining the talent you have drafted and developed is incredibly important for any franchise. While he could return significant value on the trade market, Keldon should have more value to this team than others around the league. 

The Spurs will find themselves with their highest draft pick in 25 years next off-season and whoever they select will immediately become the prized jewel of the rebuild. The ability to surround that player with talent from day 1 is greater than any draft capital that could be obtained on the trade market. 

Having a ready-made roster full of competent NBA level players will not only help provide a nurturing developmental situation for their keystone but it will help accelerate the journey to competitiveness.  Time and time again we have seen teams draft a sure-fire star only to squander their stockpile of long-term assets in an attempt to create a competent roster before finding themselves with nowhere to go.

San Antonio shouldn’t run into that problem any time soon. This roster is built to insulate a newly drafted centerpiece with young complementary talents throughout the rotation. Whoever this team drafts will be entering an environment suitable for growth and a roster built to grow with him. The Spurs are attempting to walk the thin line between rebuild and reboot, the margins are incredibly slim and there is little room for error. With that said, they have put themselves in a situation uniquely built for long-term success if luck is to go their way.

This season is going to be a long one that is difficult to watch at times, but that is the price of building for great rather than good.  I for one am more than willing to pay it. 

All Statistics provided by https://www.basketball-reference.com and https://www.barttorvik.com

The post State of the Stonecutters appeared first on Swish Theory.

Last season saw one of the most remarkable shooting developments in recent memory, with Keldon entering the year a relative non-shooter and exiting it with a place on the NBA’s 3-point leaderboard. The court began to open up for Keldon in a way we have not seen at the NBA level, his abrupt evolution into a spot-up marksman no longer allowed defenders to sag off and leave him open beyond the arc.

While the ability to stretch defenses and get hot from distance is beneficial, the most compelling part of Keldon’s game is his ability to get downhill, both off the catch and when utilizing a screen. He’s a runaway freight train once he gets a head of steam, entirely unafraid of attacking the rim. He isn’t the tallest or the longest at his position, but his strength is that of someone much larger.

He is still learning how to leverage that strength on both ends of the ball. His handle has improved significantly over the last 18 months, and with the recent reports he dropped ~20 pounds over the offseason and the available usage from the Dejounte Murray departure, Keldon should have more opportunity to explore the studio space with the ball in his hands.

While Keldon has a knack for getting into the paint, he has struggled to score efficiently at the rim against NBA big men. He is a better vertical athlete with a runway than in the confines of a pick-and-roll where he has to finish through or around his defender instead of over. His finishing craft has steadily improved over his career and he has impressive body control for someone his size. Keldon’s mid-range scoring bag is fledgling at best, but he began to show more of an interest in taking them as he found his touch throughout the year. He gets into his shot easily and has decent touch with his floater, but the second-level scoring package is still very much under construction.

During his first two seasons Keldon was a black hole attacking the basket, often missing wide open teammates one pass away in favor of a heavily contested layup. Last season he made some major strides in reading the court and making quicker decisions with the ball. With a new offensive pecking order in 2022 he should have the volume of opportunities needed to continue refining his ability to read a defense. Last season he was an accurate passer making basic reads to the big man or corner shooter, this season will be informative as to whether he can grow beyond that as a playmaker.

On the defensive side of the ball Keldon is a man without a country. He is slow-footed guarding the perimeter and has struggled to remain engaged and in sync within the defensive scheme. He has spent a lot of time guarding power forwards and is able to bang with them physically but he offers little to no secondary rim protection at that position. Keldon is more of a power athlete than a twitchy one and that shows up in his screen navigation on the perimeter and contesting shots.

After having lost 20 pounds in the offseason Keldon has looked more spry on the court and should spend more time at the three this season than the four. With some improved foot speed and awareness he could become somewhat of a wing-stopper with his strength and reach. He is solid in isolation where he doesn’t have to navigate a screen and has done well guarding larger forwards in the post. Time will tell what his ideal defensive role will be, but the changes he made this offseason may address some of his current deficiencies guarding the perimeter.

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