Still, no handshake is complete without a wink. Your project could cut the line. Maybe the prognosticators were wrong. Maybe all he needs is a summer of professional weight-lifting and nutrition plans to flash potential and production at 19 years old. You never know.

Well, we found out pretty quickly with Scoot Henderson. He is nearly a lock to finish his rookie season dead-last in the NBA in eFG% and TS%, among qualified players. The Portland Trail Blazers go from bad to awful — getting outscored by just under 11 points per 100 — when Scoot takes the court. His early play was littered with missed shots and turnovers that just didn’t look right, quickly quieting the noise around the #3 overall pick:

The winking eye has faded, and what remains are the harsh realities of life as an NBA point guard who just turned 20. Disappointed? Perhaps. But should we be worried?

Jumper Watch

To answer that, we first have to talk about the jumper, his biggest pre-draft question mark. Scoot settled into his rookie year All-Star break shooting 31% from deep and somewhere between 33% and 34% on mid-range attempts. No matter where you get your statistics, the numbers tell a story of a broken shot.

Hold off, though, on declaring doomsday. It depends which of Scoot’s Jekyll-and-Hyde jumpers we’re talking about. If it’s the all-too common version where his energy transfer is corrupted by an exaggerated knee-bend, then yes. It’s broken:

After exerting so much energy to just get off the ground, — damn-near doing a squat — Scoot has little left for, you know, the actual shot attempt. It’s a symptom of poor lower-body organization, and it can manifest in other ways; he has one foot on red and one foot on green here:

The optimist’s case is quite easy to make: When Scoot gives himself a chance, he can shoot the rock. When his lower body complies, you expect the league’s least efficient scorer to knock it down. Even on a pound-dribble, side-step three:

Of course, slightly more power is required for deeper shots, but in general: The closer Scoot’s load-up looks to this, the better.

That’s the diagnosis on one of the worst jump-shooters in the NBA, but what’s the prognosis? Well, considering the raw numbers, it’s quite positive. The optimist has evidence of Scoot confidently step into sound pull-up threes when defenders duck under screens.

After a 2-of-21 start from deep in his first first five games, an ankle injury sidelined the young guard. Since his subsequent absence, Scoot is shooting a respectable 34% from deep. Overall, Scoot is making an eye-opening 35.2% of his threes off-the-dribble, but an also eye-opening 26.9% of his catch-and-shoot attempts. He is far more comfortable walking into pull-ups with the ball in hand, planning those steps to make sure nothing goes awry. This looks pretty good!

Anecdotally, his mechanics feel more consistent in recent weeks, though we still haven’t seen a percentage-boosting hot streak. I can’t, uh, spit on your head and tell you it’s raining by declaring that one of the NBA’s worst jump-shooters is actually a sniper, but there are signs of life.

Scoot will have ample opportunity — whether on or off the ball — to catch that heater. As you can see, defenders don’t show him a ton of respect beyond the arc.

The Magic is There

Or maybe it’s a form of respect. See, Scoot still displays the talent that Portland ultimately swung on. No matter how much space a defender puts between himself and Henderson, a minor slip-up still means Scoot is gone. Lu Dort learned this lesson the hard way, twice beat by a Scoot special: a ball-screen rejection:

The young man had us worried to start the year. Not about his athleticism or even ball-handling skills, but his advantage-perception. Scoot looked like a victim of overtraining. He had come from the shadowy G League Ignite and had every move in the bag. But in the fall, it looked like those moves were drilled into his muscle memory by high-level trainers and coaches, practiced on cones and chairs. Applying them against live bodies proved difficult.

The results were often ugly, like the offensive foul that led off this article, occasionally innocuous. Take this pseudo-Smitty that goes nowhere:

Did Scoot think Isaac Okoro was still on his hip, or that Evan Mobley was going to lunge at him? That would have been a nasty counter, if so, but Scoot reached in his bag for a solution that didn’t apply.

In the new year, that’s happened less frequently. Here, Dillon Brooks and Jock Landale think conservative ball-screen coverage is a piece of cake until they get hit with an evil, downhill tween/in-n-out combo:

Scoot’s shooting remains a concern, even for optimists. There’s talent to work with, and it does feel as if the lower-body organization has improved over the year. But until Scoot starts truly making more shots, those are words of affirmation rather than evidence points.

However, his driving has improved over his first half-season. He’s often more explosive than his matchup, but now he’s busting out appropriate, high-level dribble sequences to get by defenders. Throw in a consistent jump-shot (or, sigh, a real DeAndre Ayton screen) and this skill pops even more. But if there’s one worry that’s been quelled, it’s Scoot bringing the offensive goods at the point-of-attack. He’s gonna live in the paint; it’s not the first layer of defense that bothers him.

The Launch Pad

It’s the second and third. Ever the swing skill for young guards, Scoot picks the ball up too early on most his drives. His handle, impressive and aggressive in space, freezes up in the presence of even light help defense, and his shots at the rim are often unreasonably difficult.

When Scoot gets to the launch-pad, about ten or 12 feet from the basket, that’s it. He’s picking the dribble up and taking off, whether it’s off one foot or two. Even for a flammable, long-armed athlete like him, it’s too much:

Scoot is now taking 38% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s a Ja Morant figure; he’s living around the cylinder. But he is only making 46% of these attempts, firmly in basement-territory. It doesn’t add up until you turn on the tape. Weak digs, stunts, defenders on hips, and big bodies in front of him abort his dribble. This one isn’t egregious, but the 6’2″ draft jewel should be able to dribble low through this nonchalant Jokić dig:

Aside from depressing his finishing numbers, Scoot’s launch-pad tendencies have blinded him from the weak-side. He views the second defender he inevitably attracts as a challenge, a big body to finish over, rather than a sign that someone is open on the other side of the floor:

Sure, these potential kick-outs aren’t glaringly obvious, and all are fairly late-developing plays. But through 43 games, Scoot hasn’t made many of these last-second decisions, or rather, adjustments on his drives. He’s set on taking a floater or layup once he picks the ball up, and thus, his decision-making window is real tight. There is currently little read-and-react to his game inside 15-feet.

Listen. Scoot is getting into that lane and drawing help defense, the ultimate point-guard building block. And yes, this seems like a correctable habit. But isn’t it mildly concerning that seeing multiple defenders doesn’t trigger passing instincts like, ‘Hey, I just left Jae Crowder in the dust, and I’m looking at Giannis Antetokounmpo preparing to meet me at the rim. Someone must be open!’

That’s why this play, from an early February game against the Denver Nuggets, put a big smile on my face. Scoot progresses to the fourth pick-and-roll read (shot -> roll -> corner skip -> slot), reading not just the low-man, but the second weak-side defender as well.

We can work on the passing accuracy later.

Scoot Henderson hasn’t proven he can’t do anything. Sure, he’s struggled to shoot the ball, but not because he doesn’t have the requisite touch. When he takes his jumper, it falls. What rookie doesn’t struggle with consistency and discipline?

And indeed, the show-stopping skill has arrived as promised. Albeit in bits and pieces, but still, pretty damn big bits and pieces. There were bumps in the road and there will be more, but even disrespectful defenders have a tough time keeping Scoot in front. He works around ball-screens — even those set by Ayton — like a veteran, mixing in patience with the signature explosion and handle that make the whole experience worth it.

Here’s a boring conclusion: Scoot Henderson is mostly just living the life of a young NBA point guard. His defense is nothing to write home about, fairly competitive on the ball but sleepy off of it. He’ll laze into an upright stance, preceding a late rotation or a non-threatening closeout. So, rookie stuff.

Still, this is a lot of rookie stuff for such a touted point-guard prospect, no matter how young he is. Do we have to recalibrate our expectations for Scoot after going #3 overall threw them out of wack, or should we be worried? There are not just undeniable positives from his first four months in the league, but growth too. Is it appropriate to pounce on them, or is it grasping for straws, being too lenient on a player who has struggled mightily in his rookie season?

For now, worry is a bridge too far. But a healthy mix of concern and intrigue? Nervous excitement? That sounds more like it.

The post The Scoot Report: Checking in on the NBA’s Premier Point Guard Prospect appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Wemby Tier

1. Victor Wembanyama, Big, Metropolitans 92

As much as I loved them as prospects, this is why you can’t call guys like Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Chet Holmgren generational. Because if you do, what in God’s name do you call Victor Wembanyama? Once in a lifetime? Once in an epoch? I don’t even know what to say about Wemby that hasn’t already been said a hundred times. We have never seen someone as tall as Wemby (7’5) move as fluidly as he does while displaying touch from every area of the floor. Oh and by the way, he also anchored the number two defense in France and led his team to their first ever finals appearance as a 19 year old. 

Let’s start with Wemby’s defense. No one is safe against Wemby in the paint. He uses his 8’0 wingspan to block shots at an absurd rate (9.7 BLK% this year). Rim protection has always been Wemby’s best skill, as he led the Euroleague in blocks as an 18 year old with ASVEL last year. Wemby’s unique physical makeup allows him to block and alter shots that no one has ever been able to. That play where he was backpedaling in transition, flipped his hips, and blocked an alley-oop is just one of many examples of Wemby using his otherworldly tools functionally on defense. He covers a lot of ground in the halfcourt too. He often finds himself in positions that would leave most bigs out of the play, only to swoop in and bother the shot. He does stuff like this while only averaging 2.1 fouls per game as well! The discipline Wemby shows to not get sloppy when protecting the rim is remarkable. Wemby is going to be a killer drop defender in the NBA, but he also shows proficiency at the level of ball screens. He slides with perimeter players and gives them problems with his length. Wemby’s hands are also surprisingly quick. He occasionally strips ball handlers and can initiate the ensuing transition opportunities. Given his tools, smarts, and pedigree on defense, I feel comfortable projecting Wemby to be contending for DPOY awards throughout his career.

Then there is the offense. Turn on any highlight tape or game of Wemby’s, and you will see jaw-dropping shot-creation and dribble combinations that you can never quite believe a 7’5 player is uncorking. His move from ASVEL to Metropolitans 92 allowed him more freedom to explore his shotmaking, which likely dragged down his percentages, but helped his long term development. As I am writing, he has only shot 27.6 from three this season, which is the one hair in the soup for Wemby’s statistical profile. But, I am not worried about that. Given the degree of difficulty on some of these shots and his natural touch (81.3 FT%), it’s pretty safe to say that Wemby is going to shoot. The Spurs should trust him as both a catch and shoot threat and an isolation scorer from day one. His work in the midrange is deadly, especially his turnaround jumper, which no one can feasibly block. Wemby also hits stepback threes with regularity, and he might be the player who officially ushers the three point floater into the game of basketball. Once again, this man is 7’5!  

Wemby’s passing stands out too. He needs to clean up his turnovers by acting on his decisions quicker and not telegraphing his passes. But, he can pass off a live dribble and hit cutters and spot up shooters accurately. Wemby is also great at hitting the dunker’s spot in short roll situations. I wouldn’t describe him as a manipulative passer, but he won’t need manipulation to be an effective playmaker. He finds the open man following double teams with ease, and he will only improve his more advanced reads with time. Wemby posted 99 assists and 121 turnovers this season (0.82 AST:TO), an encouraging ratio for a big man prospect in Europe. For reference, Marc Gasol had a 0.9 AST:TO ratio in his pre-draft year, and he was the best big man passer in the league until a certain Serbian showed up. Wemby should only improve as a playmaker over time. 

Are there flaws in Wemby’s game? Sure. He can’t quite punish height mismatches in the post by backing them down, and instead has to rely on shooting over them every single time. Again, his 3P% has to increase, which his FT% and the eye test already suggest will happen. It feels weird to even discuss this stuff because these flaws won’t matter in the grand scheme of things. They certainly will not prevent him from being the obvious choice at number one. The other discussion surrounding Wemby is what his frame will mean for his NBA longevity. There’s no ignoring the truth: players above a certain height have had trouble staying healthy in years past. Former number one picks Ralph Sampson (7’4) and Yao Ming (7’6) were the consensus choices at the time, but knee, back, and foot injuries prevented them from having long careers. But, Wemby and his camp seem to have taken these cautionary tales into account and have worked diligently on his body. At this point, Wemby’s long and detailed warm-up routine is well documented. If he suffers a career setback due to injury, it won’t be because he neglected to address potential medical issues. 

Not only is Wemby the obvious choice at number one, he is by far the best prospect I have evaluated in my time as an armchair scout. He is the prize of the last ten drafts, and is likely to be the prize of the next ten drafts. With his combination of size, fluidity, scoring, playmaking, and elite defensive potential, there’s no telling how good Wemby can become. The Spurs have once again lucked into the big man prospect of the decade, and he will vault them into contention within the next few years. 

Tier 1

2. Scoot Henderson, Guard, G League Ignite

He doesn’t hold a candle to Wemby, but Scoot Henderson is a great prospect in his own right and by far the next best swing for stardom in this class. For starters, Scoot’s per 100 line in the G League is ridiculous, as he put up 27.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.9 steals, and 5.1 turnovers. Scoot is a force when his motor is fully revved up. Even though he stands at only 6’2, Scoot is built like a semi truck. He boasts a 6’9 wingspan in addition to his chiseled 200 pound frame, which ought to quell any concerns about his size at the next level (yes, some people are actually concerned about this for some reason). He uses his powerful frame to brush off contact and finish with ease. Scoot also has some craft around the rim, utilizing reverses as well as changing up his body angles and timing with his footwork. When he has a head of steam, Scoot threatens to posterize rim protectors

Scoot’s shot, while a work in progress, projects to be an asset at the next level. He shot 32.4% from three in his regular season and showcase games, in addition to an even 75 percent from the line. Scoot is not comfortable shooting off the dribble from three yet. Some people are skeptical that he will get there. But, in his higher end outcomes, I think a pull up three is very attainable. Teams will go under on ball screens at the start of Scoot’s career until he can reliably punish teams for doing so. He will have more time to get his pull up three off in these situations, and he can concentrate on speeding up the decision to shoot as he improves his efficiency there. 

Where Scoot thrives is in the midrange. I love how polished Scoot is setting up these shots. He takes what the defense gives him in drop coverage, and his pull up is an effective counter on drives to the basket. He settles for too many jumpers from there rather than attacking the rim, but the concern over this phenomenon is overblown with Scoot. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic brought forth the idea that Scoot phoned in his rim attacks and contact seeking in order to avoid injury. I think there’s some credence to this idea. The G-League Ignite program is all about securing a high draft pick for these prospects, not necessarily competing at the highest level. So, you can hardly blame Scoot for taking his foot off the gas when he solidified his status as a lock for the top three. 

Because of this, improvements to Scoot’s scoring game inside the arc are imminent. I suspect he will find himself at the rim and the free throw line much more starting from early in his career. Shot selection issues almost never derail prospects with the physical tools of Scoot’s caliber. When their coaches emphasize getting to the efficient spots they can relentlessly attack, these players usually adjust. Look at how quickly Anthony Edwards dialed up his rim pressure in the NBA; I think Scoot will undergo a similar development process. 

Scoot also makes virtually every pass in the book. An AST:TO ratio of 2 and 10.2 AST per 100 demonstrate how advanced of a passer Scoot is for his age. He collapses defenses and sprays the ball to shooters off a live dribble. He is creative with his interior passes, as he expertly manipulates bigs in the paint on dump offs and lobs. Weakside skip passes have become necessary for NBA primaries, and Scoot already shows aptitude in that department. With his physical tools and quick decision making, he’s going to be a transition nightmare as well. 

Defensively, Scoot has the tools to be good, but there’s a ton he needs to clean up. When he’s on, Scoot navigates screens well on the ball, and he gets into ball handlers and disrupts them. But, his tape contained a ton of preventable blowbys where he was barely in a stance. This is hardly atypical for a young primary initiator, but you’d hope to see a little more from Scoot given his physical tools. Off the ball, Scoot got caught ball watching too much, and his steal rate of 1.9 per 100 doesn’t sway me in a positive direction here. His closeouts could use a great deal of improvement as well. I have no doubt that Scoot’s defense will improve as his career goes on, but the degree of improvement remains to be seen. 

Scoot’s athleticism, projectable jump shot, advanced passing, and reported intangibles make him an excellent primary initiator bet. Primary initiators are the players we think of as stars in the NBA. This makes Scoot the clear-cut number two prospect in this draft. Charlotte, don’t mess this up. 

Tier 2

In the past, my Tier 2 has been reserved for prospects who are confident All-Star bets with a chance to deservedly command a max contract down the line. Obviously, Wemby and Scoot both slotted in above this tier. I believe Scoot can make All-NBA teams down the line. Wemby, well, nothing is off the table for him. After these two prospects, the talent drops off significantly in my eyes. Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of great prospects with star upside in this class. But, they are much less obvious from here on out. Thus, I don’t feel confident enough in anyone else to put them in Tier 2 or above. Let’s move on. 

Tier 3

3. Cam Whitmore, Wing, Villanova

I still can’t really believe I am doing this, but here it is. Cam Whitmore at three – the same Cam Whitmore who seemingly averaged one pass per game at Villanova. If you read my last article, first of all, thank you. Second of all, you know that Cam Whitmore has what I call a compounding skills profile. “Compounding skills” refers to a development pathway many great players have undergone: a raw and fluid athlete who builds on flashes of perimeter skill until they are a complete offensive player. Make no mistake, Whitmore has as big a learning curve as any compounding skills prospect I have seen. His 6.4 AST% is historically low, and the efficiency of his pull up game leaves a lot to be desired. And yet, there have been too many compounding skills success stories for me to put Whitmore any lower than this. With compounding skills prospects, we are shooting for a fairly complete offensive player down the line. But, as I said, Whitmore’s passing and off the dribble game are clearly not where they need to be. So, what am I betting on with Whitmore? 

First off, he has a lot of time on his side with a July 2004 birthday. He’s a year and a half younger than the Thompson twins and close to two full years younger than Brandon Miller, three players who are often mocked higher than Whitmore. That age difference has gone underdiscussed throughout this draft cycle. Secondly, Whitmore is a mutant of an athlete. His preference for two-foot leaping could present some initial bumps in the road around the rim. But, it’s hard to get hung up on that when Whitmore has the best speed/power combination I’ve seen since Anthony Edwards. At 6’6, 230, Whitmore is a downhill force. His flashes as a driver are special. He can get downhill and completely displace defenders. Even against good on-ball defenders, he can easily get his shoulder past them and finish through contact. Whitmore has legitimate touch around the rim and can utilize a lot of finishing angles when his initial plan is cut off. 

Additionally, Whitmore has enough perimeter skill to suggest that he can become a great three-level scorer down the line. I think his handle is underrated. He keeps the ball under control on drives, and he already has some go-to moves to create shots for himself, including a polished stepback. The shot itself looks good to me. He shot 34.3 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per 100, which for his age is actually pretty encouraging. Many of these shots came from comfortably outside NBA range as well. He only shot 70.3 percent from the line, but I trust Whitmore’s mechanics and the deep range he already possesses will make him a trustworthy shooter at the next level. 

Whitmore’s shot selection is a Moreyball dream. He exclusively operates at the rim and from three, which probably inflated his 55.1 eFG% (good number for an 18 year old college wing). This ought to help him as a play finisher in his first couple years in the NBA, but if he is going to become an on-ball scorer, he’ll likely need to develop a midrange game. His attempts at pull ups or floaters inside the arc were rare, and when they occurred it didn’t look pretty. Whitmore has some serious work to do here, but he has the time to get it done. Passing is the other glaring weakness in Whitmore’s game. I’ve already mentioned his woeful 6.4 AST%, and his slow processing prevents him from creating more advantages for himself and others. Whitmore would benefit tremendously from eliminating that extra beat that he takes every time he gets the ball before deciding what to do. I’ve liked some of the passing flashes I’ve seen from him, he executed some nice live dribble dump offs and the occasional skip pass. But, they were flashes in every sense of the word. If you blinked, you might have missed them. 

Defensively, Whitmore has serious flashes to build on going forward. He can be a terror on the ball, using his strength and lateral quickness to get into ball handlers and guard multiple positions. While his team defense is messy right now, Whitmore still nabbed 3.2 steals per 100 and showed some amazing weak side rim protection. Historically, scouts have gotten burned when talking about prospects like Whitmore defensively. They get hung up on the effort level when the tools are so clearly there. Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Edwards are two examples of compounding skills players who were deservedly flamed for their defensive effort (in Wiggins’ case, comfortably into his NBA career). But, they turned into excellent defensive stoppers. You want to bet on the talent and tools combo every single time, and Whitmore has both in spades defensively. 

I’ll close with a principle that I solidified back in 2020 because of Anthony Edwards: with young and powerful athletes, focus on the flashes. If these prospects can do something once, chances are they can do it again until they make it a habit. Before you know it, you have an All-Star on your team. Developing Whitmore is going to require patience. But, if he follows the compounding skills trajectory I expect him to, he can turn into the two-way wing shot creator that NBA teams crave.

4. Jarace Walker, Forward, Houston

Those who follow my work will know that I have talked about Jarace Walker ad nauseam. My false ceiling alarm bells went off early in the college season, and I haven’t shifted my position since. Jarace was a key contributor on both ends to a Houston team that finished number one in pre-tournament KenPom rankings. He had an eye-popping statline of 25.2 points, 15.2 rebounds, 4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.9 blocks per 100 possessions. That high level impact on the box score was good for an 8.8 BPM as well. 

We know what Jarace can do as a connector, and I expect him to contribute in a similar manner from the jump in the NBA. It’s rare to find a 6’7, 240 pound forward who processes the game as quickly as Jarace does. Look no further than his passing, where he seems to always find holes in the defense and exploit them. The ball never sticks with Jarace. He has a knack for keeping the ball moving and optimizing the offensive possession for his team. He only averaged 3.3 turnovers per 100 relative to his four assists, only reaffirming Jarace’s top tier court mapping and lightning quick decision making. His short roll passing is outstanding, and if you need someone to just stand at the nail and make decisions, Jarace is that guy. 

Additionally, Jarace is an amazing defender. I already mentioned his stock numbers, which were so good because of his unbelievable team defense. He flies out of nowhere to block shots regularly, and he can read ball handlers and play the passing lanes brilliantly. As a help side rim protecting four, Jarace has the potential to make a huge impact. Even though he is just 6’7, Jarace also showed some coverage versatility as the roll man defender in ball screens. Houston trusted him to hedge ball screens, drop, play at the level, pretty much everything. I want to reiterate that Houston was KenPom’s number one team and number one defense before the tournament. The fact that Jarace had this large of a role in both those rankings as a freshman has been another underdiscussed talking point this draft cycle. On the ball, Jarace’s hips can be a bit slow, so he is susceptible to quick changes of direction. But, he’s light on his feet, and he uses his fast hands to jar the ball loose and earn transition opportunities. He might not be an elite wing stopper, but Jarace has enough to build on for his on-ball defense. 

The degree to which Jarace’s scoring game develops will dictate his upside. At 25.1 points per 100, he was far from a non-scorer in college. But, he was reluctant to attack the rim, and he wasn’t super efficient away from the rim either. There are certainly justifiable concerns with how Jarace is going to score in the NBA. However, Jarace’s placement on my board should indicate that I believe he’s going to find a way to score. 

For starters, I think Jarace is going to shoot. Last season, he shot 34.7 percent from three and 66.3 percent from the line, hardly a resounding point in his favor. But, Jarace’s mechanical improvements from his senior year of high school to college were remarkable. He also shows good touch in the short midrange areas, especially with that floater that he loves. I always cite unassisted two point jumpers as a strong indicator for shooting when traditional indicators fail, and Jarace hit 30 of them. I love the direction Jarace’s shot is headed, and his elite processing indicates that he has the neuroplasticity required for further development. I can’t help but project Jarace as a reliable catch and shoot threat at the very least. I also don’t think self-creation is out of the question in Jarace’s high end outcomes. We’ve seen guys who specialize in the close midrange area at the college level slowly develop their isolation scoring. What’s awesome is that Houston gave Jarace iso opportunities throughout the season, and he delivered in some key moments. As a UVA fan, I remember him cooking us with fadeaways down the stretch all too well. 

It’s difficult to see how Jarace fails in the NBA. Teams always look for players in Jarace’s mold: smart and versatile wings who can impact the game in many different ways. The floor is incredibly high here, and Jarace will be afforded opportunities to experiment and add to his game as a result. I’d be shocked if Jarace does not find himself playing in high stakes games for at least a decade in the NBA. 

5. Taylor Hendricks, Forward, UCF

Taylor Hendricks: false ceiling prospect number two in this draft. Hendricks had a truly meteoric rise this year. He went from number 46 in the RSCI rankings to a consensus lottery pick and the fifth player on my board. I understand if you are skeptical of ranking Hendricks this high. But, let me ask you something: how many prospects in recent memory have met Hendricks’ thresholds of youth, size, shooting, athleticism, and incredible defense? It’s not that many, right? There’s Jabari Smith last year, and the next one I can think of is Jaren Jackson. I wasn’t scouting prospects in 2018, but I know that Jaren was clearly a better prospect than both Jabari Smith and Taylor Hendricks. These are not direct comparisons. The point is that using Hendricks as a threshold for the categories above sets the bar quite high.. 

The first thing that stands out about Hendricks is his size and shooting combo. At 6’9, 215 pounds, Hendricks shot 39.4 percent from three on eight attempts per 100 and 78.2 percent from the line. He shoots a comfortable ball with a high release point that is tough to contest. Similarly to Jarace Walker, Hendricks has greatly improved his jump shot since high school. He only shot 31.2% from three in his last two years of high school and EYBL play (hat tip to Maxwell Baumbach, @BaumBoards on Twitter for that stat). To go from that to nearly 40 percent is quite impressive, and the free throw percentage suggests that it is sustainable. The high release point and touch could lend themselves to improvements off the dribble as well. This process played out with guys like Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard, and Mikal Bridges. 

Hendricks’ athleticism also stands out, and he already uses it functionally as an off ball player on offense. He excels as a cutter and playing out of the dunker’s spot, as demonstrated by his 36 dunks on the year. While still a work in progress, Hendricks’ flashes of attacking closeouts have looked good too. I trust that to continue being a weapon for him as NBA defenders begin to respect his shot. The drawbacks with Hendricks offensively are his handle and playmaking ability. I love the functional athleticism, but his loose handle sometimes prevents him from fully taking advantage of his gifts. I think Hendricks’ current handle woes lead to some of his difficulties with unassisted looks at the rim, which has been a common criticism of Hendricks. Guys with Hendricks’ athleticism often experience improvements to their handle, and improvement as a dribbler will help Hendricks attack the rim off the dribble efficiently.  

Hendricks also isn’t much of a passer at this stage, and he unfortunately does not have the first step of someone like Cam Whitmore which lends itself to passing improvement. He is limited to fairly basic reactive reads, only processing what’s happening in his direct field of vision. Hendricks averaged 2.4 assists per 100 and 2.5 turnovers. I like that his AST:TO ratio is around one, but that’s a small amount of assists relative to his usage. I suspect that Hendricks’ passing will be another beneficiary of an improved handle, but the degree of improvement remains to be seen. 

Where Hendricks really shines is on defense. I honestly think he is on a similar level to Jarace Walker on that end. He used his size, verticality, and timing to be a force of a helpside rim protector. Hendricks averaged 3.0 blocks per 100 and only 3.5 fouls. He already has an advanced verticality technique, and he uses his frame and leaping ability to stifle drivers at the rim. Hendricks can cover an insane amount of ground on these rotations too. This allows him to close out to shooters from further away than most players as well. Additionally, Hendricks will guard anyone you need him to on the perimeter. He has fluid hips, slides his feet, and likes to get close to ball handlers and bother them with his length. Unlike Jarace, I’m not sure I trust Hendricks to be the roll man defender in ball screens. His role is going to be a wing stopper and help defender, and I think he will excel. 

Closing the loop here, I want to share a Barttorvik query I stumbled upon. Do you want to know the only two freshmen in that database to have an eFG% > 55, BLK% > 5, 3PA/100 > 7, and over 30 dunks? Taylor Hendricks and Jaren Jackson Jr. That is it. I mentioned the traits of youth, size, shooting, athleticism, and defense. I also mentioned that Hendricks sets an incredibly high bar for those attributes. The eye test informed that take, but a statistical search using numbers close to Hendricks’ marks corroborated it. Hendricks will thrive in a 3&D role immediately, and if you think that is where a 19 year old kid will stop his development, you are sorely mistaken. If Hendricks is drafted in the 7-14 range, he has a chance to be a steal in this draft.  

6. Brandon Miller, Wing, Alabama

As a 6’9 freshman, Brandon Miller was arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball this past year. He was a consensus All-American and led Alabama to the overall number one seed in the NCAA tournament. His 12.0 BPM led all freshmen in the country. Oh, and he did this all with a skillset that directly translates to the NBA, having shot 38.4 percent from three on 12.6 attempts per 100. So, what’s he doing here and not comfortably ranked third? 

First, there’s the issue of his age. I alluded to it earlier, but Miller is OLD for a freshman. A November 2002 birthday will make him 20.6 years old on draft night. He’s only three months younger than TCU junior guard Mike Miles! Taylor Hendricks is a year younger to the day than Brandon Miller; Jarace Walker is ten months younger; Cam Whitmore is almost two years younger. I could keep going. That age difference really matters when considering the development curves of these prospects. 

Second, while the production can’t be denied, I’m not sure I trust Miller to be an effective on-ball star in the NBA. He doesn’t have the functional strength or flexibility that the game’s best wing creators have. He isn’t all that bursty, and he struggles as soon as he faces a lot of contact in the lane. According to Synergy, Miller shot 39.3 percent at the rim in the half court, which is…not ideal. He lacks craft around the rim and the aforementioned athletic limitations hinder him in that area too. Miller also only shot 33.3% from the midrange, albeit on mostly unassisted looks. Miller found a way to produce and impact winning at a high level despite his limitations inside the arc, in large part due to the fact that he was a flamethrower from three. I already mentioned the volume and efficiency, and it’s worth noting that Miller can splash in shots from deep off the catch, off movement, or off the dribble. The ball comes out flat on his shot, but you can’t argue with the results. An 85.9 FT% on 170 total attempts this season only provides further evidence for Miller’s outside shooting aptitude.

Miller also dramatically improved as a dribbler and passer throughout the season. His handle can be a bit high and loose, but Alabama trusted him to initiate offense more as the season went on. He operated in ball screens and could make good passes with either hand. I also really liked Miller as a fast break initiator, where he pushes the pace and finds open teammates quickly. In order for Miller to run pick and roll in the NBA, he needs to improve the velocity and accuracy of his passes. Some of Miller’s passes were wild, especially early on, but I like that he tightened up his passes as the season went on. 

Defensively, Miller projects as solid but not spectacular. I can’t think of one standout skill for Miller on this end. He didn’t generate a lot of stocks or completely hound guys on the ball. But, his rotations were sound, he held up just fine on the ball, and he rarely made any egregious mistakes. Miller didn’t wow me like Walker and Hendricks did, but I trust him to be a neutral to slightly positive defender at the next level. 

Miller is a weirdly tough evaluation. Normally, I’d see a freshman who produced at the level Miller did and put him in Tier 1 or Tier 2 without thinking twice. That seems to be what the NBA has done. However, when you dig deeper, it’s hard to project Miller as a quality star player. Does he have the functional strength, bend, balance, or craft to create inside the arc in the NBA? Is his handle good enough to earn on-ball reps in the NBA? If not, what exactly is he at the next level? The answer there is a ridiculous wing shooter with some tertiary playmaking capabilities and competent defense. That’s a great player to have, but we’re not talking about the next Paul George here. There’s no question that Miller is a great basketball player, and I am valuing his high floor here with the list of sure things dwindling quickly. But, I can’t get as excited about his upside as the NBA seems to be. 

7. Cason Wallace, Guard, Kentucky

Cason Wallace seems to have fallen on mainstream boards, but I am not reacting to that. People are getting hung up on his size and projected role, a 3&D guard. Pencling him into this role ignores an important question: are we sure this guy is only a 3&D guard? At only 6’3, Wallace will mostly be the smallest guy on the floor in effective lineups. He will absolutely be able to play that role, A closer look indicated that Wallace might be able to bear a greater offensive load down the line. 

For starters, Wallace finished well at the rim. He could stand to get there more often, but he shot a whopping 71.2% at the rim, with just 9.2% of those looks being assisted, according to Barttorvik. Wallace also finished with 11 dunks on the season, an indicator that Wallace is underrated as an athlete. Wallace could be passive at times, and he was playing hurt for a portion of the season. None of that helped him shine as an athlete, but I love his functional strength and deceleration on the offensive end. Outside Kentucky’s system, Wallace will have more space to operate on drives and I trust that the rim volume will increase without affecting his efficiency. 

Wallace also has enough off the dribble prowess to build on for potential primary ball handler reps. According to HoopMath, he made 40 unassisted two-point jumpers, which bodes well for Wallace’s outside shooting. Wallace’s tough shotmaking in the midrange makes me more optimistic about his shot than a fairly pedestrian 34.6 3P% and 75.7% FT% otherwise would. Another great indicator for future primaries is an AST%:USG% ratio > 1. It’s rare for players to achieve this, and Wallace hit that ratio comfortably with a 24.3 AST% to a 19.9 USG%. For someone who’s almost exclusively labeled a combo guard, Wallace checks a lot of boxes for a pure point guard prospect. 

Additionally, Wallace’s defense is incredible. His 6’9 wingspan allows him to play bigger than his size both on and off the ball. Off the ball, Wallace’s screen navigation, anticipation, and rotations are top notch. His 3.7 steals per 100 (historically great rate for a freshman guard) reflect that aptitude. On the ball, Wallace terrorizes ball handlers with his lateral quickness, fast hands, and functional strength. It’s nearly impossible for ball handlers to overpower Wallace, and he is the most disruptive point-of-attack defender in this class as well. That’s a pretty good combination!

Honestly, there aren’t many bones to pick with Wallace. I wish he could separate from defenders more and generate easier looks. I wish he was a little more assertive and willing to command the offense more. Also, while Wallace meets many basic thresholds for skills like shooting off the dribble and attacking the rim, he is far from elite in those areas. It’s possible that the small sample size of one season inflated his numbers there and we don’t have a clear picture. 

See? I’m already grasping at straws while trying to nitpick. Wallace can capably dribble, pass, make great decisions, shoot from the midrange and three, and defend at an elite level. A Marcus Smart 3&D+ outcome is very attainable for him. Plus, who knows? Maybe Wallace is next in a long line of Kentucky guards whose potential was hidden under Coach Calipari. 

8. Leonard Miller, Forward, G-League Ignite

The departure from consensus continues! Leonard Miller is easily the most underrated player in the 2023 class. I made the elevator pitch for Miller in my last article, so I want to quote myself here: 

As a 19 year old, Leonard Miller put up a per 100 statline of 28.0 points, 17.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. You could argue he’s had the best statistical season of any G-League Ignite prospect in the team’s history, including Scoot and Jalen Green! This was all as a raw prospect who was playing his first real stint of high level basketball coming off of an enigmatic high school career. But wait, it gets better. He was efficient (64 TS%) and he only averaged 2.3 turnovers per 100, putting his AST:TO ratio on the right side of one. 

What’s crazy is that when you watch Miller play, it seems like there is so much he can improve upon. This is what made me high on Tari Eason last year. He was able to have a highly productive season while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone for skill development. […] These guys are always good bets because they are often among the best functional athletes in their draft class, which gives them a nice baseline as the rest of their game develops. Miller is no different. I think he’s a no-brainer top ten guy in this class. 

A couple things to add here. First, addressing the concern of Miller’s shot. There’s no question the mechanics are wonky. His lower body is all over the place, and his upper body often has to contort itself to stay in alignment. This results in an impractical shooting motion, and it had a lot to do with his 30.4 percent clip from three in the Regular Season and Showcase games. The good news is Leonard has real touch. He shot 79.2 percent from the line and showed amazing touch finishing at the rim. When projecting shooting, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to guys with touch, and Miller has it. The fact that he shot as well as he did with those mechanics might actually be a point in his favor.  

Some people also seem concerned with what role Miller will have in the NBA. My answer to that right now: I have no idea. My best guess is he starts out as an energy guy who finishes at the rim, makes good decisions, and plays defense. As his career progresses, he’ll earn more responsibilities than that, and the shot will ultimately dictate how much room Miller has to grow. I’m not a coach, and I’ll own up to the fact that I’m not sure what the specific plan should be for Leonard Miller early on. However, I am confident that there is a role for a 6’10 functionally athletic, coordinated, and smart two-way player with budding perimeter skills. I trust an NBA coach to find that role. 

You don’t see a prospect with Leonard Miller’s development curve every draft cycle. He was a guard who had a late growth spurt. He went from playing against unremarkable Canadian high school competition to thriving against grown men in the G-League within a year. That’s incredible. It also helps that everyone who’s in the know says that Miller is an unbelievable human being who’s hungry to learn and get better. You want Leonard Miller on your basketball team. Draft him with confidence. 

9. Gradey Dick, Wing, Kansas

The easy sales pitch for Gradey Dick is he’s 6’8 and has been a 40 percent three point shooter since he got his learner’s permit. His pristine mechanics, touch, high release point, and shot versatility make him one of the best shooting prospects I’ve evaluated. As far as his basic shooting numbers go, 40.3 3P% on 10.0 attempts per 100 and 85.4 percent at the line in his lone season at Kansas. 

Everyone knows about the shooting, but Gradey’s unheralded ancillary skills on offense really stand out. Chief among them is his cutting. Gradey weaponizes his shooting gravity to lure defenders close and decisively cut behind them. Gradey generates lots of easy rim attempts in this way, and he uses clever body control and angles to finish. Don’t sleep on Gradey’s vertical pop following a backdoor cut either. When he builds up a head of steam, he’s a threat to finish emphatically above the rim off a lob pass. His 15 dunks on the season back that up. 

Additionally, Gradey’s passing is underrated. He won’t be a primary initiator, but Gradey can pick teams apart coming off curls or attacking closeouts. He makes quick reads and rarely misses an extra pass. Gradey will occasionally fit the ball through tight windows in transition, and he made a couple nice weakside skips when nothing else was on. With regards to those skip passes, Gradey usually executed them after surveying the court for a few seconds. He rarely uncorked those off of pure instinct. That doesn’t matter too much though. Gradey is fantastic at simple passes and the movement off of them required for functioning in an NBA offense. For those wondering about his AST:TO ratio, it was comfortably above one at 1.25. 

Defensively, some scouts have completely written Gradey off. Personally, I am a bit more optimistic. I share the concerns about Gradey’s athleticism with everyone else. He needs to get much stronger in order to absorb contact, and quicker players have their way with Gradey when they make him move laterally. However, I think Gradey has a chance to make up for his physical limitations with smarts and effort. His 0.8 BLK% doesn’t jump off the page, but I thought Gradey flashed really good verticality technique and use of his length around the rim. His rotations tend to be good too, even if the athleticism takes away some of their efficacy. Gradey has quick hands too, which makes him effective on digs and occasionally surprising guys at the point of attack. A 2.5 STL% reflects these skills.  

Overall, I like the way that Swish Theory’s own Matt Powers described Gradey Dick: “he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst.” Lights out wing shooters who move well off the ball and make quick decisions are ideal complementary players on offense. That describes Gradey perfectly. The hope is that Gradey finds a role defensively that can utilize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. If that can happen, I see Gradey starting in many high-stakes games in the future. 

Tier 3.5 – The Thompson Twins

10. Ausar Thompson, Wing, Overtime Elite

11. Amen Thompson, Guard, Overtime Elite

I said most of what I want to say about the Thompson twins in my draft strategy article, so I’ll include the relevant text here. 

Amen and Ausar Thompson are perhaps the toughest evaluations I have had in my time scouting NBA Draft prospects. After all, before we even get into the Thompsons as players, there is the league that the Thompsons play in: Overtime Elite. Overtime Elite is an enigma to say the least, as we don’t really have an idea of how players translate to the NBA from that league. Last year, Dom Barlow and Jean Montero both went undrafted. Barlow played some garbage time minutes for the Spurs and was introduced into the rotation when the ultimately successful tank for Wemby was fully on. He does have some functional athleticism to his game and could maybe turn into something. But, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly not someone I want to project the Thompsons based on. 

The other guy, Jean Montero, is actually doing quite well in the Spanish ACB. He’s averaging 17/3/4 on 54% true shooting for Real Betis. It’s possible that he’s able to come over and contribute as a backup point guard for an NBA team someday. I had Montero 40th on my board last year, so I definitely think there is some talent there. But again, hardly a needle-moving development case, at least right now. Thus, I simply do not feel comfortable with the amount of data points that we have to properly project talent from Overtime Elite into the NBA.

Then, there is the actual evaluation of the Thompson twins. They were the best of the bunch in Overtime Elite, no doubt about it. But once again, we really have no idea how that dominance is going to project to the NBA. Another one of the best players in Overtime Elite, Jazian Gortman, was invited to the NBA combine, where he did not pop in any meaningful way. Scouts are projecting here, and most are erring on the side of optimism. However, I think using a top five pick on one of the Thompsons is an extremely dicey proposition. They are quite old, as both will comfortably be 20 on draft day. At roughly the same age, Brandon Miller was a first team All-American and arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball. Looking at things in those terms, I think you could argue the Thompsons should have been a bit more dominant to earn a high spot on draft boards. I THINK. Again, I don’t know. Nobody really knows. I fully see the vision for them being good NBA players. They flash a combination of elite athleticism and passing ability that we don’t see too often. They seem like wonderful people as well with strong work ethic and maturity. But, the level of competition factor is a bit too much of a hurdle for me. 

I have also mentioned some one and done prospects who fit exactly what I am looking for in the lottery. Wemby and Scoot are obvious. But, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, Cason Wallace, and Gradey Dick are all surefire NBA guys to me whose avenues to strong positive contribution are very attainable. Once all those guys are off the board, that’s probably when I would roll the dice on the Thompsons. The reality is that both twins will be taken before several of the guys I mentioned above, and because of that I’ll take the safer guys who also have plenty of avenues to upside. 

I recognize that this is a controversial take, so I want to say that this is only one man’s strategy, and that yours might look quite different, and that’s okay. For those who would prioritize a Thompson twin in the draft, I will say that Ausar seems like the one to target. Amen seems to be the preferred twin, but Ausar was better statistically pretty much across the board (assists, steals, blocks, impact metrics, usage, turnovers, etc.). Name a statistic; chances are Ausar came out on top. Plus, Ausar is further along as a ball handler and shooter, which bodes well for his development. Amen is projected to go top five, and rumor has it Ausar is projected to fall a bit. So the smarter move to me is to get Ausar further down the board. 

I hope I’m not being flippant by putting the Thompson twins down here and discussing them as a group. That is not my intention. This is truly how I see them stacking up in this class. Putting myself in the general managers shoes, I really like the talent that I have in spots 1-9 enough to value them over the competition-driven uncertainty that the Thompsons have are surrounding them. They both could very well be amazing and that honestly wouldn’t surprise me. However, there are enough risks that make me wary of putting them higher on my board. This is where I will roll the dice.

Tier 4

12. Kobe Bufkin, Guard, Michigan

We’re starting Tier 4 off with Kobe Bufkin, who is like diet Cason Wallace in some ways. Painting with a broad brush, they’re both likely 3&D guards who have upside to become more than that. Bufkin has more to do than Wallace in order to hit his high end outcomes. Thus, he slots in a tier below Wallace. However, he’s a great player and projects to be a solid starting guard. 

Bufkin has a September 2003 birthday, which puts him around a lot of the one-and-dones in this class. Despite his thin 6’4, 175 pound frame, Bufkin was one of the better rim finishers in the class. He converted a borderline elite 64 unassisted shots at the rim, per HoopMath. Bufkin also projects to shoot. He shot 35.5 percent from three on 6.4 attempts per 100 and 84.9 percent from the line. These numbers are good on their own, but they’re much better when you see how improved they are compared to Bufkin’s freshman year. He only had a 22.2 3P% on similar per possession volume, albeit in a small sample. I always love to see big freshman to sophomore year shooting jumps from guards. Bufkin’s floater and off the dribble game will be a weapon for him as well.   

The question is whether or not Bufkin is a point guard at the next level. He only averaged 5.1 assists per 100, low for a typical point guard prospect, and he doesn’t have the first step quickness that would allow him to develop his passing faster. However, Bufkin does flash some high level passes. He’d certainly have more assists if he was allowed to play point guard full time. Bufkin can manipulate defenders well and deliver quick passes off a live dribble. As he fills out his frame, expect Bufkin to get a lot better as a passer. 

What gives Bufkin a bit more upside than some other guards down the board is the defense. Both his STL% and BLK% were > 2, which you don’t see too often from 6’4 guards. The shot blocking in particular really surprised me. Bufkin has no fear of getting up and contesting shots at the rim. That willingness to play above his size makes me think Bufkin is more ready to withstand the physicality of the NBA than his frame would otherwise suggest. It also helps that Bufkin stays in front of his man on the ball, navigates screens, and uses his quick hands to force steals. 

Overall, I’m hard-pressed to find a glaring flaw in Bufkin’s game. When an NBA strength program takes care of filling out his frame, the shooting, solid passing, and great defense will make Bufkin a good 3&D guard. As I said before, there’s upside here too. But, you’re betting that Bufkin a) is a true point guard and b) becomes a substantially better functional athlete inside the arc for him to get there. For now, I’m penciling him in as an uber-solid starting guard down the line. 

13. Sidy Cissoko, Wing, G-League Ignite

We’ve officially entered gamble territory, folks. Cissoko has a wide range of outcomes that include not sticking around the NBA and being a championship-quality role player. Once again, I’ll draw from my draft strategy article: 

In most of my public work, I make sure to mention the checklist for the ideal draft prospect, courtesy of the original Stepien group: a 6’6+ player who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions, and defend. As a 6’7 wing with an April 2004 birthday, Cissoko reliably demonstrated every single skill in that list except shooting, and I don’t think it’s crazy to project him as a shooter either. 30 percent from three and 64.5 percent from the line does not initially induce optimism. But, closer inspection leads me to believe that Cissoko is going to shoot. The mechanics themselves look a lot more fluid than you would guess, and he even had some cogent flashes of versatile shotmaking in the midrange and from three. When I watch him shoot off movement and hit stepbacks, I can’t help but believe those flashes are going to become more consistent.

The reason why the list of traits mentioned above are often mentioned in the context of star prospects. But, such players often become some of the best role players in the league too. To me, this is Cissoko’s path to success. He is an excellent passer, and even has some live dribble stuff in his arsenal. Cissoko’s AST:TO ratio near two reflects his exceptional feel. He also has a functional handle, and defends wings at a high level. By the way, Cissoko averaged 3.2 stocks per 100 as an 18 year old in the G-League. His non-scoring production (the stuff that tends to matter more anyway) is elite given his age and competition level. 

I know this is one of the more overused comparisons ever, but there’s some Kyle Anderson to Cissoko’s game. Cissoko has some underrated athletic ability, but both are slower high-feel wings who just get stuff done. If Cissoko even shoots passably, he’ll be a huge steal in this draft. 

14. Jett Howard, Wing, Michigan

Jett Howard is a 6’8 wing that can really shoot the ball, having shot 36.8 percent from three on a whopping 13.6 attempts per 100. He also shot an even 80 percent from the line. You do not have to worry about the shooting at the next level. 6’8 wing who can shoot might have you picturing a typical 3&D wing, but we have to seriously worry about the defense component of that formula. 

Howard’s rates of rebounds (8.9 DRB%, 1.0 ORB%), steals (0.8 STL%) are historically low for a wing. If you search for wings of the past who were this bad in these effort-indicating stats, the list is not promising. When you watch Howard play, you can see why these stats were so low. He doesn’t make a lot happen as a team defender, and he gets cooked way too often on the ball. There isn’t really a position or type of athlete that he excels at defending, which is almost unheard of for his size. Howard has serious work to do as a defender, or else he’ll be a serious negative in the NBA. Plenty of people have faded Howard all the way to the 20s or even 30s on their board because of the defense, and I definitely understand why. 

But, we also can’t ignore Howard’s enticing dribble, pass, shoot skill set at 6’8. He has legit prowess off the dribble. He uses ball screens well and makes teams pay when they go under. The mechanics are perfect on every shot type too. I also like how he uses his handle to get to his midrange pull up. I’d like to see him get to the rim a lot more than he does, and I think that he has the handle and stride length to up his game there. Howard is also a good passer. His 1.59 AST:TO ratio is great for a 6’8 wing, and he has enough connective passing skill to function well in an NBA offense. 

Howard is a fascinating mix of enticing strengths and potentially debilitating weaknesses. There are a lot of different ways that his career could go. But, at the end of the day, I have to value a 6’8 wing with a dribble, pass, shoot skillset. Those players don’t grow on trees. If an NBA team can make Howard passable on defense, we’re talking about a really valuable player.

15. Keyonte George, Guard, Baylor

I was really high on Keyonte at the start of the season, and at one point he was fourth on my board before I really dove deep into other prospects. As you can see, I’ve soured on Keyonte quite a bit since then. If everything comes together, I still believe Keyonte can be a great scorer. But, I started to question if the juice was worth the squeeze with Keyonte. He isn’t a true point guard, so he falls into an NBA archetype that’s rife with pitfalls: scoring combo guards. Unless these players can contribute on offense, their impact is usually negligible. There are notably few who have been an integral part of deep playoff runs, as successful teams usually have a bunch of 6’6+ two-way players with perimeter skill contributing to their rotation instead. But, there’s a chance Keyonte makes it all work.

As I’ve said, he’s got the tools to be a great scorer in the league. His off the dribble game looks like it’ll translate, as he creates a ton of space on such shots and has good touch (79.3 FT%). HoopMath charted 28 made unassisted two point jumpers, and an absurd 29 unassisted threes. I’m fine with the low conversion rate of these shots for Keyonte, as volume and touch matter considerably more for freshman prospects. The 2023 guard class is generally poor at getting to the rim, and Keyonte is no different. Only 14.6 of his shots came at the rim, per HoopMath, and 3 dunks on the season doesn’t help Keyonte’s case as a downhill athlete. And yet, Keyonte shot 9.4 FTA per 100 compared to 11.5 2PA. A FTA:2PA ratio above 0.8 is quite rare, but it’s a threshold that many of the best players in the world hit in college. 

Passing-wise, Keyonte has some great flashes of advanced reads, but his sky-high turnover rate of 5.9 per 100 needs to be lowered significantly for a team to feel good about letting Keyonte run a second unit at some point. It’s far more likely that Keyonte has some secondary playmaking responsibilities, but that will come further down the road. 

Defensively, Keyonte competes, and I thought his on-ball defense in particular looked quite good at times. The concern is about whether Keyonte’s athletic ability will translate up a level to quicker NBA guards and wings. If it does, Keyonte might actually have some upside that puts this ranking to shame. If you squint, you can see a CJ McCollum type player here. Unfortunately, the far more likely outcome is that Keyonte becomes a score-only guard who you have to overpay to retain past his rookie deal. That puts him just outside the lottery. 

16. Anthony Black, Guard, Arkansas

Anthony Black is nearly universally loved on draft Twitter and clearly in NBA circles too. Some have Black as high as fourth on their draft boards. It’s not like I don’t see the appeal. Black is 6’6, really athletic off of two feet, slides with ball handlers well on defense, and can pass on offense. His 3.2 STL% and 1.8 BLK% are great numbers for a freshman, as is a whopping 0.578 FTr. However, Black strikes me as a classic jack of all trades, master of none connector prospect that we tend to overrate.

Black likely isn’t a primary ball handler in the NBA, as his rim pressure off the dribble is iffy, and he’s a virtual non-factor shooting off the dribble. Thus, Black likely needs to shoot in order to be a positive NBA player. I’m not sure I trust Black’s jumper enough to bet on the “if he shoots” outcome. His 30.1 3P% and 70.5 FT% aren’t great, and I really don’t trust the touch and mechanics. There’s a chance that teams are content ignoring Black when he’s spotting up for three. When Black is running the offense, teams will try to under him to death until he proves that won’t be a viable strategy. 

I’m sure Black will provide some value as a playmaker, and he has a good chance of being a positive defender in the NBA. But, we have to account for the possibility that Black’s offensive role will be a secondary creator who can’t shoot. Are we sure that his passing is good enough to really hurt defenses if that’s his role? I’m not. I am always willing to bet on smart, defensive-oriented wing sized players with pedigree going back to high school, but there are red flags aplenty here. Thus, the middle of the first round feels right for Black. 

17. Dereck Lively II, Big, Duke

Lively is a traditional center who averaged 5.2 points per game last season at Duke. You read that right. 5.2 PPG. So, we’re not off to a good start here. But, the rest of Lively’s profile mirrors that of many successful bigs in the NBA. Lively blocked 7.2 shots per 100 possessions, corralled offensive rebounds better than anyone in this class (12.4 OREB%), and had a positive AST:TO ratio, having averaged 3.2 assists per 100 to just 2.0 turnovers, a remarkably low number for a big man. Of course, the low turnover numbers were helped by the fact that Lively’s usage on offense was exclusively rim running and offensive rebounds. But, it’s better to have those numbers than not have them!

I want to circle back to the absurd 7.2 blocks per 100. As crazy as it sounds, that might actually be underrating Lively’s rim protection abilities. As the season went on, Lively began to have a Rudy Gobert-esque effect on drivers. Players were terrified to even shoot at the rim when Lively was parked in the paint. Combine that with some hip fluidity and lateral mobility, Lively has legit DPOY upside in his high-end outcomes. 

Additionally, reports from Lively’s pro day said that Lively was making corner threes with ease. The mechanics actually looked pretty good at Duke, so we have to account for an outside chance that Lively becomes a pick and pop threat. If he does, 17 will be wayyyy too low for Lively.

Lively probably ends up being selected in the lottery tomorrow, but I can’t quite get there. I tend to fade traditional centers on my board anyway, and the complete lack of a scoring game scares me on offense. I value the film that I saw of Lively (and one game in person against UVA where he got played off the floor offensively) over pro day reports and workout videos. I don’t want to bank on DPOY upside for a lottery ranking either. If Lively is a positive defender but not an All-Defense guy, that becomes a less enticing proposition. 

18. Colby Jones, Guard, Xavier

Colby Jones is one of my favorites in this class. He’s a 6’5, 200 pound guard who is kind of good at everything. He’s young for a junior, as he only just turned 21, and his per 100 statline is a thing of beauty: 24.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists (to 3.8 turnovers), 2.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks. Jones also shot 56.3 percent on twos and 37.8 percent from three. 

The jump shot is not a sure thing, as Jones had a career-low 65.8 FT% this past season. However, the mechanics look good off the catch. I trust Jones to drain catch and shoot jumpers in the NBA. If he can do that, there’s an important role for him on offense due to his passing. Jones initiated a lot of offense at Xavier, and he involved his teammates at a high rate. Jones actually eclipsed the AST%:USG% ratio > 1 threshold I discussed earlier with Cason Wallace. 

 Jones projects to hold his own defensively too. He averaged 2.4 steals per 100 for his career at Xavier, and his technique getting into ball handlers and navigating screens is excellent. Off the ball, Jones is keenly aware of man and ball, and his rotations are on-time and disruptive. His smarts and effort on that end should earn him playing time early in his career. 

Athletic concerns and worries about Jones’ jump shot likely drop him into the late first or early second round. But, I love Jones in the top 20. I believe he will shoot, and he’s too smart of a passer and defender to not contribute in the NBA for a while. 

19. Brandin Podziemski, Guard, Santa Clara

Brandin “Air Podz” Podziemski is another fun prospect that teams should be considering starting around pick 15. Athleticism is the obvious concern with Podz. It’s possible that he’s just Nik Stauskas, who was an excellent high-feel shooter in college. He just didn’t meet the athletic threshold required to stick around the NBA. Now that we’ve acknowledged the potential downside, allow me to start gushing about Podz. 

Let’s start with the per 100 stats, an absurd average of 31 points, 13.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.7 blocks. Podz also shot 43.8 percent from three on 9.0 attempts per 100 and posted an elite 10.7 BPM. For someone with athletic concerns, those steal and rebound rates are really impressive. For me, those numbers reflect Podz’s incredible mind for the game. As I said in my draft strategy article, Podz is so damn smart he’s going to figure out how to contribute one way or another. 

Defensively, Podz will have to be hidden off the ball. He regularly got cooked on the ball, a problem that will only get worse in the NBA. But, as a team defender, Podz competes hard and disrupts much more than you’d expect him to. He makes timely rotations, opportunistically digs down to force steals, and fights through screens to the best of his ability. One thing is for sure: effort won’t hold Podz back on defense. On offense, Podz will continue to shoot the lights out and make high level passing reads as a secondary creator, a la Luke Kennard. His handle should translate enough to snake his way into the lane and hit floaters too, which accounted for many of his 50 unassisted two point makes. 

Like I said, Podziemski has plenty of downside rooted in the fact he might get matchup hunted to death on defense. But, you have to bet on production and impact to the degree Podz has it at a certain point on the board. 

20. Dariq Whitehead, Wing, Duke

Whitehead is an interesting bet, as his role at Duke was pretty much exclusively to knock down catch and shoot threes. He was certainly up for the task, as he shot 42.9 percent from three on 10.4 attempts per 100. The added layers of intrigue with Whitehead come from his high school pedigree (#1 RSCI), and the fact that he doesn’t turn 19 until August 1st. Whitehead was far too turnover prone for his role at 4.1 per 100, and he didn’t do much in the way of advantage creation either. But, a super young 6’6 wing who can shoot? That’s a pretty good starting point. A 2.2 STL% is nothing to sneeze at either. 

The flip side with Whitehead is that he’s completely inept when he walks inside the three point line at this stage of his career. He actually shot worse from two than he did from three, posting an abysmal 41.4 2P%. Another looming issue with Whitehead is the medical situation. Whitehead dealt with a foot injury all of this season, which took away a lot of the athletic ability he showed in high school. Had he been healthy, there’s a chance Whitehead could have shown much more inside the arc. It’s worth noting that he had a second surgery on his foot after the season ended, so I have a hard time making an upside bet on Whitehead predicated on regaining his athleticism. 

Overall, the combination of wing size, youth, pedigree, and shooting will always be intriguing. But, there’s a chance Whitehead has a tough time developing despite those valuable traits. He’s a tough one to pin down. 

21. Bilal Coulibaly, Wing, Metropolitans 92

No prospect experienced a meteoric rise quite like Victor Wembanyama’s teammate Bilal Coulibaly. He went from playing in the French second division to starting alongside Wemby in the French League finals. He wasn’t just ball-watching out there either. Mets 92 trusted Coulibaly to run some pick and roll in this critical setting. The degree of development within the year is unbelievable. The question is: was it enough to make Coulibaly a top prospect? 

The NBA seems to think so, as Coulibaly is unlikely to fall out of the lottery. I have been a little more reserved when moving him up my board. The good with Coulibaly is that he’s 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan and young, with a July 2004 birthday. He also really fights on defense. I love his ability to navigate screens and stick with ball handlers. The potential to be a menace on the ball is absolutely there. 

Offensively, Coulibaly can handle the ball a bit and his decision making is trending in the right direction. Some have cited Coulibaly’s physical tools as a reason to believe he will develop into a borderline All-Star level creator. Basically, a compounding skills type of proposition. While Coulibaly has some juice, I certainly don’t think it’s on that level. I also don’t trust Coulibaly’s shot. In particular, the touch worries me. He only shot 62.7% from the line, and he had some ugly misses on his pull up, a shot he would need if he’s a creator bet. 

Overall, my instinct is that Coulibaly tops out as an energy wing at the next level. But, if Coulibaly keeps developing at this rate, he could really burn me for ranking him this low. I guess we’ll see.  

22. Brice Sensabaugh, Wing, Ohio St.

As a 6’6, 235 pound freshman, Brice averaged 40.3 points per 100 on an efficient 58.7 TS%. Surely we’re all overthinking this and he should be a consensus top five pick. Well, not so fast. 

While he’s got unbelievable touch, I’m concerned Brice’s athleticism isn’t conducive to being an effective on-ball scorer in the NBA. He isn’t very explosive, and I think he looks stiff in his movement patterns. Normally, we talk about prospects filling out their frame when discussing potential improvements to their functional athleticism. Brice is the opposite. He needs to slim down and gain some quickness and fluidity. 

That stiff movement also affects Brice on defense, where he is a clear negative. I actually question whether or not Brice will play NBA minutes in his first season because of his defense; it’s that bad. His 1.3 STL% and 1.7 BLK% are unremarkable for a wing, and Brice is completely lost as a team defender at this point. He also averaged a staggering 6.7 fouls per 100. Brice’s passing also leaves a lot to be desired. He shows some flashes, but almost two turnovers for every assist tells you all you need to know for the current state of affairs.  

On a much more positive note, Brice has a case for the best shooter in the draft. He shot 40.5% from three on high volume, as well as 83 percent from the line. If nothing else, he’ll provide a lights out stroke from deep. But, it’s likely he’ll provide more than that on offense. You don’t reach the scoring heights Brice did unless you have some tricks up your sleeve. He mastered isolation scoring at the college level, and has one of the best midrange pull ups I’ve seen from a draft prospect. 

Basketball games are won by one team putting the ball through the net more times than their opponent. Brice does that at an elite level. But, the questions about literally everything else keep him outside my top 20. 

Tier 5

At this point in the draft, there are two main types of bets you can make. You can draft someone whose right tail outcome isn’t all that inspiring, but they have a high chance of being a quality rotation player. Conversely, you can swing for the fences on someone who clearly isn’t ready, but there’s just enough to build on such that you might have a decent player down the road. It’s tough to rank these two types alongside each other, so my solution is to split Tier 5 into a few groups, some of which contain safer players and others more risky ones. 

Tier 5a – Preferred Rotation Bets

23. Marcus Sasser, Guard, Houston

If you watched the playoffs this year, you know that successful teams often have 3&D guards start alongside jumbo creators. Sasser projects to fill this role perfectly. He’s a bit short at 6’1, but he has a sturdy 195 pound frame. He uses every ounce of strength he has to bother guys at the point of attack. A 3.2 STL% shows how disruptive Sasser can be. Then there’s the shooting. Sasser shot 38.4% from three on 13.9 attempts per 100 and 84.8% from the line. Sasser has a prolific midrange pull up game he can use too, should defenders run him off the line. Sasser won’t be running pick and roll every possession for you, but his 1.94 shows that you can rely on him to make quality decisions within the flow of the offense. It’s easy to picture Sasser helping a playoff team and playing a decade in the NBA. He’d be a great option for a contender. 

24. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Wing, UCLA

Jaime Jaquez is an older 6’6 wing who is far from a sure thing to shoot. That’s a shaky foundation, but Jaquez has just about everything else you could ask for. He filled up the box score, having averaged 31.9 points, 14.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per 100. It might not surprise you to know that Jaquez also had a 10.7 BPM. Additionally, Jaquez just has a knack for making the right play. He had a super low 9.9 TOV%, and he is great at putting his teammates in positions to succeed. I like Jaquez’s anticipation as a team defender too. Jaquez also fits brilliantly with any team because of his motor. He’s always diving for loose balls, crashing the glass, and intensely guarding ball handlers. Jaquez is simply a tone setter who will enhance his team on the court as well as in the locker room. If the rumor is true that Miami is locked in on Jaime at 18, I can’t imagine a better fit. 

25. Jordan Hawkins, Guard, UConn

Prospects who play for the national champs have been overrated in the past because they’re labeled as winners. Sometimes the shoe fits, but more often than not scouts anchor that one player to the accomplishments of an entire team. I’m worried that’s what some are doing with Hawkins. That said, this is the best shooter in the draft. His mechanics are picture-perfect and the speed of his release is Klay Thompson-esque. You might want to sit down for these numbers: 38.8 3P% on 15.1 attempts per 100 and an 88.7 FT%. Hawkins isn’t higher on my board because I don’t trust him to do much else at an NBA level. I see Isaiah Joe as a reasonable outcome if Hawkins gets better at weaponizing his gravity to create for others and improves as a team defender. If he’s just a pure shooting specialist, Hawkins could run into some issues deep in the playoffs. But, when the shooting is THIS good, it’s hard to pass on.

Tier 5b – Preferred Raw Prospect Gambles

26. Maxwell Lewis, Wing, Pepperdine 

No prospect has had more of a roller coaster ride on my board this year than Maxwell Lewis. At one point, I was all in. I saw the potential wing shot creator with functional length on defense and budding playmaking. I even wrote about Lewis during the preseason, anticipating that he would be a top 20 guy for me this cycle. Unfortunately, while all the enticing tools were still on display, another year went by where Lewis didn’t put it together. The propensity for turnovers from his freshman year carried over, as he averaged 4.2 of them per 100. But, the real worries come on defense. Lewis has always had incredibly slow hips, which make it impossible to contain ball handlers. But, I had some optimism about him as a team defender. That optimism waned when Lewis’ steal rate dropped to an abysmal 1.1 per 100. To make matters worse, Lewis is older than you’d like for a prospect this raw – he’ll be 21 on NBA opening day. There’s enough to work with that I’ll hold out a little hope that everything comes together and Lewis becomes a two-way shot creating wing. But, he has a long way to go. 

27. Julian Phillips, Forward, Tennessee

People are sleeping on this guy quite a bit! I didn’t really register how good of an athlete Phillips is until the combine when he killed it on the vertical jump. I didn’t pay too much attention to Phillips during the season because I thought of him as a multi-year guy. But, I dove deeper after the combine, and I think we’ve got a fascinating development case to monitor here. An uber-athletic 6’8 wing who got fouled as much as he did (0.615 FTr) and was an advanced defender for a freshman deserves consideration. The shot isn’t as hopeless as his 23.9 3P% suggests either. Phillips shot 82.2 percent from the line last year. Going back a couple years, he shot an eye-opening 37 percent from three in high school and AAU play. Phillips could be a 3&D wing hiding in plain sight, he just needs a patient development staff. 

28. Noah Clowney, Forward, Alabama

Clowney is a tough one because the long term vision for him is to be a stretch four, yet he can’t shoot right now. He only shot 28.3 percent from three and 64.9 percent from the line. The mechanics give people (including me) some hope, though. Clowney shoots a smooth, comfortable ball, and he’s young enough (July 2004 birthday) that the results have time to catch up to the eye test. Even though he’s skinny, Clowney is already a great functional athlete. His gaudy 66.9 2P% and 17.2 rebounds per 100 reflect that. All-in-one metrics love Clowney as well. He posted a 8.3 BPM, and he frequently ranks highly in draft models. Clowney likely needs time in the G-League, but I’ll always approve of betting on functional athleticism and the potential of perimeter skill. 

Tier 5c – Next Rotation Guys Up 

29. Jalen Slawson, Wing, Furman

Yup, I’ve got a 23 year old wing from Furman in my top 30. Talk to the hand. In all seriousness, Slawson is someone I’ve liked since his junior year. His statistical profile is a thing of beauty. At 6’7, 210 pounds, He shot 62.6% from two, 39.4% from three, had a 19.9 AST%, 2.9 STL%, and 5.3 BLK%. Insane. Slawson has always been incredibly smart. He was an elite event creator on defense every year at Furman, and he’s an excellent passer capable of dicing up defenses from the high post and the top of the key. Slawson’s age means he needs to contribute quickly in order to stick in the league, and I’m confident he’ll do just that. What team can’t use a wing who wreaks havoc on defense, makes smart decisions, and can knock down an open shot? There’s no guarantee that Slawson can hang athletically in the NBA. If there was, he’d be much higher on my board. But, I’m betting Slawson will tighten the bolts and improve just as he’s done every year of his career. If Slawson goes undrafted, it would be an absolute steal. 

30. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Big, Indiana

In my draft strategy article, I talked about how Trayce Jackson-Davis is my kind of big man bet in the second round. The bigs who buck the trend of being played off the floor in the playoffs have high positional feel and/or ball screen coverage versatility. Oftentimes, big prospects who fit this mold are available in the second round. Xavier Tillman was that guy in 2021, and Jaylin Williams was in 2022. I had a top 20 grade on Tillman and a top 25 grade on Williams, and both have turned into quality NBA centers. Jackson-Davis falls here to 30 because he’s not super tall and isn’t nearly as switchable as Tillman and Williams. 

His scoring game isn’t super exciting and will exclusively revolve around rim running and getting putbacks. It helps that Jackson-Davis is a great rebounder. But, Jackson-Davis really sets himself apart with his passing. His 24.8 AST% is better than most of the guard prospects in this draft! I love the laser beams Jackson-Davis throws to open shooters out of the post. His quick decision making in the short roll will be an asset too. Defensively, Jackson-Davis has more mobility than he gets credit for. He’ll be system-dependent in the NBA – if you can get him to be a help defender rather than the primary rim protector on defense, good things will happen. It’s not a sexy pick, but Jackson-Davis has a good chance to contribute for a while. 

31. Ben Sheppard, Wing, Belmont

Sheppard is another guy I’ll admit to not taking super seriously until after the combine. Sheppard killed it in the second combine scrimmage, where he showed how helpful his shooting and feel can be for a team. Sheppard shot 41.5 percent from three this past season on 10.2 attempts per 100. The shot itself looks good, and he can get it off in a variety of different movement situations. What’s perplexing about Sheppard’s shooting is the 69.6 FT% for his career. There’s a tug of war between the production from three and the touch indicator at the line, but I trust what I’m seeing in the shot. Sheppard also had an AST:TO ratio comfortably over one and a solid 2.3 STL% to round out his role player profile. Sheppard’s athleticism will be tested on defense in the NBA. He needs to get much stronger, but his anticipation and motor will help him contribute defensively as his frame fills out. Sheppard doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he’s got a good chance to contribute to a rotation within the next couple years.  

32. Kobe Brown, Forward, Missouri

As a 6’7, 250 pound power forward, Kobe Brown scored in volume (30.1 points per 100), was an excellent processor and passer (4.9 assists per 100 to 3.2 turnovers), and defended cerebrally (career 2.5 STL% and 2.4 BLK%). Brown has the size and skill combination to contribute for a long time in the NBA. The lynchpin with Brown is the shot. He had a virtually unprecedented improvement in his 3P%, from 20.6% his junior year to 45.5% last year. His shot looks good, but betting on a one year sample of great shooting from an upperclassman has burned scouts in the past. So, I’m proceeding with caution here. If Brown does shoot, he could be used as an effective stretch four or small-ball five given his strong frame.  

33. Kris Murray, Wing, Iowa

Kris Murray’s twin is Keegan Murray, last year’s fourth overall pick by the Kings. It’s possible that Kris is being mocked in the first based on his relation to Keegan. Personally, I don’t get it with Kris. The shot is far from a guarantee (career 69.9 FT%), and he didn’t stand out in any particular way as a defender. The low turnover rate is nice to see for a wing, but I usually want to see low turnovers in conjunction with a projectable jumper. Kris will also be 23 on opening day. So, if he’s going to iron out the jumper or get better on defense, it needs to happen soon. Murray slots in here because I have to account for the possibility that the jumper is real. A 6’8 wing who can shoot likely sticks around for a while. But, teams shouldn’t draft Kris Murray thinking that they’re getting Keegan.  

Tier 5d – A Couple More Decent Gambles 

34. James Nnaji, Big, Barcelona

As an 18 year old, Nnaji earned minutes for a Barcelona team littered with former NBA players. That’s intriguing enough on its own. Then there’s the physical tools: 7’0 tall, 7’7 wingspan, a chiseled 250 pound frame, a functional vertical, and surprisingly decent mobility. Nnaji used that athleticism to become one of the better shot blockers in the Spanish ACB, posting a 6.4 BLK%. Perhaps more impressively, the BLK% jumped up to 8.2 in his 19 Euroleague games. Offensively, Nnaji will be exclusively used as a rim runner. He doesn’t have a prayer to shoot, and he won’t be trusted to make passing reads. But, Nnaji is a massive lob threat, and I trust that he’ll get some easy buckets because of that. As a stash option, I don’t mind it if a team drafts Nnaji to see where his physical tools can take him. He’s on a great development trajectory, so there could really be something here. 

35. Amari Bailey, Guard, UCLA

There are plenty of reasons not to consider Bailey. His low three point volume and FT% have me skeptical about his shot. Bailey also averaged 5.4 turnovers per 100, dreadful for a non-initiator. But, Bailey is fairly athletic, and I thought he showed some good stuff on defense. His 2.3 STL% and 3.3 DBPM are quite good for a freshman. I don’t like factoring the combine in too much, but Bailey looked much improved as a passer in the scrimmages. If Bailey can pass, defend, and continue to hone his jumper, he could become a rotation guy down the line. 

Tier 6 – The Rest

36. Julian Strawther, Wing, Gonzaga

37. Seth Lundy, Wing, Penn State

38. Jalen Hood-Schifino, Guard, Indiana

39. Nick Smith Jr., Guard, Arkansas

40. GG Jackson, Forward, South Carolina

41. Hunter Tyson, Wing, Clemson

42. Jordan Walsh, Wing, Arkansas

43. Jordan Miller, Wing, Miami (FL)

44. Jalen Pickett, Guard, Penn State

45. Jaylen Clark, Guard, UCLA

46. Adama Sanogo, Big, UConn

47. D’Moi Hodge, Guard, Missouri

48. Craig Porter Jr., Guard, Wichita St

49. Toumani Camara, Wing, Dayton

50. Andre Jackson Jr., Wing, UConn

51. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Wing, Marquette

52. Tristan Vukcevic, Big, KK Partizan

53. Terquavion Smith, Guard, NC State

54. Isaiah Wong, Guard, Miami (FL)

55. Ricky Council IV, Guard, Arkansas

56. Azuolas Tubelis, Big, Arizona

57. Mohamed Gueye, Forward, Washington St.

58. Landers Nolley III, Wing, Cincinnati

59. Mike Miles Jr., Guard, TCU

60. Jalen Wilson, Wing, Kansas

61. Rayan Rupert, Wing, NZ Breakers

62. Omari Moore, Guard, San Jose State

63. Justyn Mutts, Forward, Virginia Tech

64. Tosan Evbuomwam, Forward, Princeton

65. Chris Livingston, Wing, Kentucky

66. Liam Robbins, Big, Vanderbilt

67. Colin Castleton, Big, Florida

68. Kendric Davis, Guard, Memphis

69. Alex Fudge, Wing, Florida

70. Caleb McConnell, Wing, Rutgers

71. Sir’Jabari Rice, Wing, Texas

72. Taylor Funk, Forward, Utah St

73. Jacob Toppin, Forward, Kentucky

74. Charles Bediako, Big, Alabama

75. Deshawndre Washington, Wing, New Mexico St

76. Drew Timme, Big, Gonzaga

77. Oscar Tshiebwe, Big, Kentucky

78. Emoji Bates, Wing, Eastern Michigan

79. Mojave King, Guard, G-League Ignite

80. Leaky Black, Wing, UNC

The post Michael Neff’s 2023 Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Lately, I have been dissatisfied with using a big board as a means of properly reflecting my thoughts on a given draft class. I would target certain players in each range of the draft. The rest are just red herrings who are decent to good prospects, but I am fine missing out on them. That’s why forming a big board is so challenging. There are guys like Jalen Slawson and Kobe Brown who I have strong conviction about as second round fliers. Conversely, there are some projected first round guys who I am lower on such as Nick Smith and Jalen Hood-Schifino. I have spent too many hours staring at my big board spreadsheet asking myself how to rank these guys. The objectively correct move is likely to rank the young high RSCI guy above Slawson, a 23-year old wing from Furman. But, that feels weird to me! I like Slawson a lot and I’m not a Nick Smith fan. Shouldn’t my board reflect that? 

The obvious phenomenon at hand is that I am anchoring my perception of these players to their projected draft ranges. We all do it, and that is completely fine. But, translating this into a big board proves difficult, muddying the waters of my actual thoughts on the draft class. I would rather articulate my overarching strategy, isolate the prospects I have conviction about, and leave the rest be. That’s exactly what the piece will cover: the best way of attacking the 2023 NBA Draft, as I see it. 

I will be providing a big board closer to draft day as well, if for no other reason than it is fun. But, I feel that this will be a great accompanying piece that better articulates my thoughts on the draft class. Here goes: 

The Spurs Have Already Won the Draft

Victor Wembanyama is the prize of this draft. He is the prize of the past ten drafts, and probably the next ten drafts. Nothing any other team does in this draft will have the impact that the Spurs winning the lottery will have on them. As the saying goes, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Spurs lucked into this guy: https://youtu.be/L33JKYc1ZKA

Anything else the Spurs do on draft day in the second round or with some sort of trade is icing on the cake. Additionally, nothing they do in other areas of the draft will tarnish their night. As far as I am concerned, they can take it easy on draft prep and make sure they get their beauty sleep in the nights leading up to the draft. It’s Victor Wembanyama. Not much more to say there. 

Once Wemby is off the board, I am not drafting anyone else if Scoot Henderson is still on the board. 

I see the Brandon Miller chatter just like everyone else does. I can tell you right now that passing on Scoot Henderson with the number 2 pick would be a huge mistake. Trading away your pick when you have a chance to pick Scoot would also be a mistake (I’m looking at you, Portland). While he isn’t perfect, he is by far the next-best bet to become a star this year. 

A powerful 6’2 guard, Scoot is a walking paint touch who uses his speed/power combination to get to the rim better than anyone in the class – when he wants to. Many scouts observed that Scoot phoned in his rim attacks in favor of midrange jumpers as the season progressed. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic wrote an excellent article on this problem with Scoot where he suggested that Scoot was trying to be careful and avoid injury as soon as he locked up a high draft pick. Everything I’ve read about Scoot’s leadership, poise, maturity, and work ethic is outstanding, so I highly doubt this was a reflection of his character. Also, he can do this: https://twitter.com/nbagleague/status/1610446654796173324?s=20

I think he’s going to be more than fine generating paint touches and getting the most out of his athletic tools.  

Additionally, Scoot is already advanced at everything required of a primary offensive initiator with his athleticism. He is comfortable shooting off the dribble, and has a two year sample of advanced passing in the G-League. For my money, Scoot Henderson is as easy of a bet to be a primary offensive initiator that I have evaluated. He will be an amazing consolation prize for whoever ends up with him. If the team is not Charlotte, that will be the first major inefficiency at play in this draft. 

Successful teams are littered with 6’6+ wing players with two way impact. Draft strategy should be geared towards finding such players

Watch any high level NBA game, and you’ll find versatile and skilled wing sized players filling out every rotation. You can’t have enough of these guys. Luckily, the top of this draft has plenty to choose from. Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, and Gradey Dick are perfect options in the 3-14 range for teams. All bring youth, smarts, versatility, and a wide-ranging skill set that will allow them to contribute in a multitude of ways. Some are more ready to contribute than others, but all have upside and are likely to play in many high-stakes games. 

There are also a collection of smart and versatile wing-sized players down the board that will likely be underdrafted. Colby Jones is a potential first rounder that teams should be targeting. If he shoots, Sidy Cissoko is quietly a very complete prospect who also has time on his side with an April 2004 birthday. Jett Howard has plenty of flaws, but he can dribble, pass, and shoot at 6’8. Using this criteria, there is a large collection of sleepers that can be had for an inconsequential draft pick or maybe none at all: Jaime Jaquez Jr, Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Jalen Slawson, Ben Sheppard, Toumani Camara, Anton Watson (please teach this man how to play offense), even someone like Justyn Mutts is very overlooked by NBA teams right now. There are plenty of fliers that can and should be taken by teams. Not all of these guys are going to hit, but if they do, that is a potential playoff contributor acquired for extraordinarily cheap. I’d rather do that than pick Drew Timme in the 40s. 

Notice I didn’t mention the Thompson twins. Let’s have that discussion now. 

I am fine letting other teams bet on the Thompson twins, given where they are projected to go. 

Amen and Ausar Thompson are perhaps the toughest evaluations I have had in my time scouting NBA Draft prospects. After all, before we even get into the Thompsons as players, there is the league that the Thompsons play in: Overtime Elite. Overtime Elite is an enigma to say the least, as we don’t really have an idea of how players translate to the NBA from that league. Last year, Dom Barlow and Jean Montero both went undrafted. Barlow played some garbage time minutes for the Spurs and was introduced into the rotation when the ultimately successful tank for Wemby was fully on. He does have some functional athleticism to his game and could maybe turn into something. But, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly not someone I want to project the Thompsons based on. 

The other guy, Jean Montero, is actually doing quite well in the Spanish ACB. He’s averaging 17/3/4 on 54% true shooting for Real Betis. It’s possible that he’s able to come over and contribute as a backup point guard for an NBA team someday. I had Montero 40th on my board last year, so I definitely think there is some talent there. But again, hardly a needle-moving development case, at least right now. Thus, I simply do not feel comfortable with the amount of data points that we have to properly project talent from Overtime Elite into the NBA.

Then, there is the actual evaluation of the Thompson twins. They were the best of the bunch in Overtime Elite, no doubt about it. But once again, we really have no idea how that dominance is going to project to the NBA. Another one of the best players in Overtime Elite, Jazian Gortman, was invited to the NBA combine, where he did not pop in any meaningful way. Scouts are projecting here, and most are erring on the side of optimism. However, I think using a top five pick on one of the Thompsons is an extremely dicey proposition. They are quite old, as both will comfortably be 20 on draft day. At roughly the same age, Brandon Miller was a first team All-American and arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball. Looking at things in those terms, I think you could argue the Thompsons should have been a bit more dominant to earn a high spot on draft boards. I THINK. Again, I don’t know. Nobody really knows. I fully see the vision for them being good NBA players. They flash a combination of elite athleticism and passing ability that we don’t see too often. They seem like wonderful people as well with strong work ethic and maturity. But, the level of competition factor is a bit too much of a hurdle for me. 

I have also mentioned some one and done prospects who fit exactly what I am looking for in the lottery. Wemby and Scoot are obvious. But, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, Cason Wallace, and Gradey Dick are all surefire NBA guys to me whose avenues to strong positive contribution are very attainable. Once all those guys are off the board, that’s probably when I would roll the dice on the Thompsons. The reality is that both twins will be taken before several of the guys I mentioned above, and because of that I’ll take the safer guys who also have plenty of avenues to upside. 

I recognize that this is a controversial take, so I want to say that this is only one man’s strategy, and that yours might look quite different, and that’s okay. For those who would prioritize a Thompson twin in the draft, I will say that Ausar seems like the one to target. Amen seems to be the preferred twin, but Ausar was better statistically pretty much across the board (assists, steals, blocks, impact metrics, usage, turnovers, etc.). Name a statistic; chances are Ausar came out on top. Plus, Ausar is further along as a ball handler and shooter, which bodes well for his development. Amen is projected to go top five, and rumor has it Ausar is projected to fall a bit. So the smarter move to me is to get Ausar further down the board. 

Always be on the lookout for players with a “compounding skills” profile

In the 2020 draft cycle, I wrote a detailed article about why I had Anthony Edwards as my number one prospect. It’s easy to forget, but a lot of people had Edwards at two or even lower throughout that cycle. I remained steadfast that he was the guy everyone should be after at the top. Why? He had what I called a “compounding skills” profile: essentially, the evolution of a raw, fluid athlete who scores in volume into a complete offensive player. I’ll link that article here. I’d urge you to at least read the introduction to get a better idea of my thought process here. 

I used the same logic to rank Jalen Green high on my board in 2021, as well as Jaden Ivey last year. This year, Cam Whitmore jumps out as the compounding skills candidate of choice. He heavily prefers jumping off two feet and winning with strength. That style of finishing generally has some trouble translating, but I am not sure it’s going to matter with Whitmore. I have also not seen a speed/power athlete moving towards the rim quite like Whitmore since Anthony Edwards. His flashes getting downhill, moving defenders off their spots, getting his shoulder past them, and finishing through contact are special. He also shows shooting touch and flashes versatility in terms of shot type and location which screams three-level scorer. He also has all the tools you could possibly want on defense, already boasting a high steal rate and some eye-popping weak side rim protection.  

There are also plenty of concerns. He had more than two turnovers for every assist, and his off the dribble game is much more theoretical at this stage – as was the case with many compounding skills prospects before Whitmore. When you look at guys with athleticism this special who flashed real perimeter skill, the fail rate is basically zero, and they often become All-Star caliber players. Whitmore also has plenty of time to develop, as he doesn’t turn 19 until July 8th. 

We often underestimate the upside of freshman-aged prospects who are billed as guaranteed role players. 

In the past, myself and others have referred to these types of guys as “false-ceiling” prospects. These prospects are rightfully considered good basketball players who are likely to contribute early, but their avenues to greater upside are ignored. My favorite recent example of a false ceiling prospect is Franz Wagner, who I had as my 12th ranked prospect in 2021. Franz is the prospect who forced me to internalize the lesson of false ceiling prospects in the first place. Many, including me, thought of him as someone who could become a quality role player in the NBA. But, I missed the point entirely. Franz was a freshman-aged prospect with some pro experience in Europe and was highly impactful at Michigan. Because he was already great at basketball, I moved him down in favor of guys with more upside (translation: they were worse at basketball and had more room to improve). I vowed not to make the same mistake. 

In my mind, there are two false ceiling prospects in the 2023 class: Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks. Both are advanced defenders, which raises the floor and ceiling of any prospect. Defense gets rookies on the floor quickly, and it means that they don’t have to reach the highest heights offensively to hit a high-upside outcome. Walker and Hendricks also project to undergo significant development offensively, which will make playoff starter impact very attainable, and possibly more than that. 

Jarace Walker is an advanced processor of the game on both ends of the floor, and he will immediately contribute as a connector. I also believe that he is going to shoot, as he has dramatically improved his mechanics from high school to college. This mechanical improvement, combined with his processing speed, indicates that Jarace has the neuroplasticity required for outlier skill development. Thus, self-creation is not out of the question for Jarace. 

Hendricks is a more typical offensive development bet. He is a good athlete who can already shoot it off the catch, and he looks more polished than Jarace at hitting tough looks in the midrange at this stage. The drawback with him is the handle and playmaking ability. What’s encouraging is that guys with Hendricks’ size, defensive ability, athleticism, and scoring ability often improve as playmakers as their careers progress. The degree of improvement in these areas will dictate how good Hendricks can become. 

Personally, I prefer Jarace as a development bet, as I think he is in a better position to contribute immediately, but both are great. Take your pick. 

The other G-League Ignite guys are extremely underrated

As I am writing, Leonard Miller is ranked 19th on Rookie Scale’s consensus big board, and Sidy Cissoko is ranked 31st. That is too low. As a 19 year old, Leonard Miller put up a per 100 statline of 28.0 points, 17.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. You could argue he’s had the best statistical season of any G-League Ignite prospect in the team’s history, including Scoot and Jalen Green! This was all as a raw prospect who was playing his first real stint of high level basketball coming off of an enigmatic high school career. But wait, it gets better. He was efficient (64 TS%) and he only averaged 2.3 turnovers per 100, putting his AST:TO ratio on the right side of one. 

What’s crazy is that when you watch Miller play, it seems like there is so much he can improve upon. This is what made me high on Tari Eason last year. He was able to have a highly productive season while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone for skill development. By the way, that should be another point of emphasis: always look for “raw” prospects who are highly productive against good competition. These guys are always good bets because they are often among the best functional athletes in their draft class, which gives them a nice baseline as the rest of their game develops. Miller is no different. I think he’s a no-brainer top ten guy in this class. 

Cissoko, as I mentioned earlier in this article, is a quietly complete wing prospect. In most of my public work, I make sure to mention the checklist for the ideal draft prospect, courtesy of the original Stepien group: a 6’6+ player who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions, and defend. As a 6’7 wing with an April 2004 birthday, Cissoko reliably demonstrated every single skill in that list except shooting, and I don’t think it’s crazy to project him as a shooter either. 30 percent from three and 64.5 percent from the line does not initially induce optimism. But, closer inspection leads me to believe that Cissoko is going to shoot. The mechanics themselves look a lot more fluid than you would guess, and he even had some cogent flashes of versatile shotmaking in the midrange and from three. When I watch him shoot off movement and hit stepbacks, I can’t help but believe those flashes are going to become more consistent. I have Cissoko in my late lottery, and as I type this out, I am wondering if even that might be too low. In any case, Cissoko is someone teams should be targeting with a mid-late first. If he slips into the second round, that would be a massive oversight. 

Non-primary initiator guard prospects who do not project to play NBA-level defense should be outside your lottery. 

Go back however far, and the ideal redraft of any given class usually looks like this: 

• Primary offensive initiators OR 2nd/3rd offensive options who provide defensive value (often the players we consider stars)
• Starters with two-way ability OR DPOY level defenders without much of an offensive game (guys who usually round out championship-quality lineups)
• Everyone else

Of course, there are some cases where that structure doesn’t perfectly capture how a draft should have gone. But, the point still stands. Usually, the players who return lottery value contribute defensively in some way. At the very least, they don’t detract on that end. Thinking about player impact through a plus/minus framework, this makes sense. A -2 on defense has to do a lot on offense (basically be a primary offensive initiator) to be a high-impact player. If you project that a prospect will be a neutral defender, that is almost guaranteed to be a better proposition than an at best secondary creator guard who does not defend. Secondary creators usually top out as roughly +2-3 offensive players in impact metrics. This implies that bad defending virtually negates their impact. 

Using examples makes this idea clearer. There are notably few guards of this ilk who have been a part of deep playoff runs. Jordan Poole and Tyler Herro are the two that jump to mind who were in rotations that made it to the championship. But, both these players’ utility wanes in the playoffs. Poole went from 30 minutes per game in the 2021-22 regular season to 27.5 in the postseason. That’s not a huge dropoff, but it’s worth noting that Poole played only 20, 14, and 17 minutes respectively in the last three games of the Finals. The Warriors won all three of those games to close out the series. Additionally, Herro’s secondary creation has not proven necessary for the Heat’s success. He has missed all but one game of the Heat’s run to the finals this year. 

The problems with this archetype don’t stop on the court. Despite their negligible impact, these players command a lot of money. Jordan Poole is owed $128 million over the next four years, and Herro is owed $120 million over the same time interval. So, at best you’re getting a player of negligible impact who you have to turn around and pay a boatload of money for. The only way these players can provide value is through a trade, likely during their rookie contract. That can be quite useful, but I would not draft a player for the sole purpose of their hypothetical trade value. 

So, who is being mocked in the lottery that might fall into this category? Nick Smith is the main one for me. Defensively, he has a bit of a motor, but I really worry about his frame and technique on that end. His footwork often gets messed up, and his skinny frame likely prevents him from making a huge impact. There is a physical tools threshold for impactful defense which Smith does not project to hit. For instance, I liked Blake Wesley’s effort on defense a lot last year, but that effort hasn’t translated up a level. Bones Hyland graded out as one of the worst defenders in the league last season despite being a pest at VCU. To make matters worse, I liked Hyland and Wesley significantly more as defenders in college. 

Another guy that I’ve steadily soured on throughout the cycle is Keyonte George. I was really high on him at the start of the season, and I still see a high upside scorer if everything comes together. But, I don’t think I properly considered the low end or even median outcomes for Keyonte, which look worryingly like this archetype. Again, I see the upside vision a lot more with Keyonte than I do with Nick Smith, so I wouldn’t hate it if a team picked him in the late lottery or mid-first. 

3&D Guards Matter

I wrote earlier in this article about 6’6+ players populating successful NBA teams, but 3&D guards have been crucial in these playoffs as well. Last offseason, Denver acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, and it completely transformed their defense. Gabe Vincent impresses me more and more every time I watch him. Marcus Smart has been perhaps the most prevalent 3&D guard in the last few years; he continues to be an integral part of the Celtics’ playoff runs. Smart’s teammate Derrick White, DeAnthony Melton, and Quentin Grimes are several others who’ve also contributed at a high level as 3&D guards. I’m sure important players are missing from that list, but the point is that these players can be difference makers down the stretch of the season. To loop in the last section, I’d rather have a great 3&D guard than a meh secondary creator/poor defending guard. 

Cason Wallace and Kobe Bufkin are two candidates for 3&D guards who also have some upside to exceed that archetype (especially Wallace). Both are in my lottery. Brandin Podziemski is a highly skilled guard who projects to contribute to playoff rotations. The concern here is Podz’s athleticism and what that means for his defensive projection. However, I am betting on his brain. I just think he is so damn smart he’s going to figure out how to meaningfully contribute one way or another. 

Marcus Sasser is another player who is going to provide shooting and dogged defense as an off-ball guard. I think he has enough ball handling and playmaking chops that he can provide some second unit ball handling as well. The aforementioned Gabe Vincent might not be a bad reference point for Sasser. 

If you wanted to swing for a potential 3&D guard in the late 2nd/UDFA. UCLA’s Jaylen Clark and Wichita St guard Craig Porter Jr would be good names to target. Clark is an elite perimeter defender who is a jump shot away from being a perfect 3&D guard. I wish I felt better about him developing that shot though. Clark is also in the middle of rehabbing a torn Achilles, which makes his projection even fuzzier. But, I still like him as a top 45 guy, as his “if he shoots” outcome will return top 30 value from this class. Porter Jr is a stock machine (career 4.7 BLK% as a 6’2 guard!) who could absolutely hold his own as a table setting point guard at the next level. The issue is his lack of touch might prevent him from seeing the floor in the NBA. 68.5% from the line this past season is very worrying for a point guard prospect. However, if you can get Craig Porter Jr in UDFA, you make that bet every time. If he shoots, he can be an impactful NBA player. 

Penn State’s Jalen Pickett seems underrated as well. He’s a great three-level unassisted shotmaker, 11.2 assist per 100 to only 3.9 turnovers, and he has the tools to at least passably guard smalls on the perimeter. He deserves to be drafted. Another guy I like in UDFA is D’Moi Hodge from Missouri. He turns 25 in December, so if he’s going to make an impact in the NBA, he needs to do so quickly. But, it’s hard to argue with 40 percent from three on high volume, 5.1 steals per 100, and only 1.5 turnovers per 100 as a starting point. 

Some Quick Hitters: 

Drafting GG Jackson would be using a 2023 pick on a guy who likely won’t contribute until at least 2025

I am generally wary of drafting raw and unproductive guys whose high-end outcomes likely won’t give you a star, especially in the first round. It’s why I was lower on Ziaire Williams in 2021, and he had considerably more tangible skill than GG Jackson does. I get the age + height + isolation scoring argument for Jackson. But, he isn’t close to being a positive contributor at this stage. That sort of bet is just not my cup of tea. He could very well end up being a decent player, but I would rather use a mid-late first on someone who is closer to contributing now (or trade that pick for future assets) than draft GG. 

Jalen Hood-Schifino scares me 

Johnny Davis PTSD is really affecting me here. Offensively, JHS reminds me of Davis in a lot of ways. He is a midrange specialist on offense, he’s very inefficient, and he can’t generate enough rim pressure for a NBA primary ball handler. On top of that, JHS isn’t in the same stratosphere as prospect Johnny Davis defensively. A 0.7 BPM does not ease concerns either. I get the idea of JHS as a prospect, but the reality is that he just is not that great right now. He has to become an otherworldly tough shot maker to turn into a valuable player. That is not a bet I’d be inclined to make. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis is my kind of big man bet in the second round

I tend to fade traditional centers on my board, as such players can usually be acquired for cheap in free agency, if desired. However, if a high-feel and/or coverage versatile big man is available in the second round, take them. Last year, Jaylin Williams was my high-feel and coverage versatile big of choice. I was also high on Xavier Tillman in 2021 for the same reasons. He’s still probably my favorite big of this type I have evaluated. Trayce Jackson-Davis is that big for me this year. Both Williams and Tillman were drafted in the 30s. If Jackson-Davis is available in that range, he’d be a great pick. 

You could do a lot worse than targeting proven wing shooters in the late 2nd/UDFA

There are plenty of prospects who will be available in the late 2nd/UDFA who profile as old, one-dimensional shooters. We often push these guys down the board, but look at the undrafted guys contributing for Miami right now. They can shoot the cover off the ball. Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin in particular fit this exact profile in college. Sam Hauser (Go Hoos!) is another recent successful UDFA in this mold. In this draft, it would not surprise me if Seth Lundy or Hunter Tyson stuck around in the NBA. Both are older prospects who are primarily shooters on offense. But, they take care of the ball well enough to suggest that they can hang in an NBA offense. Lundy and Tyson would be my picks for wing shooters in UDFA. He’s more of a guard/wing combo, but D’Moi Hodge could qualify here as well.

Putting It All Together

To close, I want to make a simple list of which players I would target in each range of the draft using the ideas I have put forth in this article. 

• Pick 1: Wemby
• Picks 2-4: Scoot if available; Cam Whitmore or Jarace Walker if not. Trading down if Scoot is unavailable could also be an enticing proposition. 
• Picks 5-9: Whitmore or Jarace if available. Taylor Hendricks next preference. If those three are gone, Cason Wallace and Gradey Dick are next up. 
• Picks 10-14: Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, or Gradey Dick if available. If not, this is Leonard Miller territory. 
• Picks 15-30: Leonard Miller if available. Sidy Cissoko, Kobe Bufkin, or Jett Howard next. If the G-League and Michigan guys are unavailable, Colby Jones, Brandin Podziemski, Marcus Sasser, and Jaime Jaquez Jr are my preferences, in that order. 
• Picks 31-45: Sidy Cissoko if available. The above list of preferences for picks 15-30 carries over. Trayce Jackson-Davis is in play here too. I didn’t discuss them, but Maxwell Lewis, Noah Clowney, and Julian Phillips are worthy “raw prospect” gambles here too, should any of them be available. Jalen Slawson, Kobe Brown, or Ben Sheppard would be good gets in this range as well. 
• Picks 46-60: Everything above carries over here. Slawson, Brown, or Sheppard would be my preference. Beyond them, Jaylen Clark, Seth Lundy, Hunter Tyson, Jalen Pickett, Craig Porter Jr, Toumani Camara, and Jordan Miller are all worthy of consideration. 
• UDFA: Ditto picks 46-60. Plus, D’Moi Hodge, Anton Watson, and Justyn Mutts would be priority signings for my summer league team. They are excellent Exhibit-10 candidates. If you’re looking for a big, Chattanooga’s Jake Stephens put up an absurd 39.7 points, 17.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 4 blocks, and 5.1 turnovers per 100 on 67 percent true shooting. He also shot 40 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per 100, in addition to an 82 FT%. UConn’s Adama Sanogo is another coverage versatile guy with excellent touch around the rim. I wouldn’t necessarily target him over the wing bets I mentioned in the 2nd. But, if he goes undrafted, Sanogo is someone I’d look to bring in. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________

So, that is my 2023 draft strategy. I hope this paints a clear picture of my convictions in this class and the principles which informed them. Increasingly, NBA basketball is a game for functionally athletic, smart individuals who bring tangible skill on both ends of the floor. Such players can be found in every range of the draft, and every player I positively discussed in this piece is someone I believe can satisfy these requirements.

The post One-Size Fits All Draft Strategy appeared first on Swish Theory.

How quickly did your brain fill in that blank and with which star’s name? Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, two MVPs, often come up in comparison to Scoot. Is that, in any way, fair to Scoot?

Scoot has the skills and physical tools to be an amazing player but we simply don’t know if he will reach MVP heights in the NBA. So why do we immediately compare him to two MVPs?

Why Do We Make Player Comparisons?

Our brains are designed to save us mental energy through shortcuts called cognitive biases. Many of these biases influence which NBA players come to mind when watching prospects. 

• The availability heuristic makes us prefer the immediate examples that pop into our heads over better-fitting and more nuanced ones. 
• Survivorship bias has us focus on successful NBA players while ignoring those who weren’t successful.
• The mere-exposure effect biases us toward the players with whom we are most familiar. And we are most familiar with successful NBA players. 
• The salience bias leads us to focus on the most prominent and visible (ie successful) players over average players.

These four cognitive biases drive us to compare prospects to successful NBA players even when most prospects won’t be successful in the NBA. A fifth bias called the anchoring effect strengthens the hold these unfair player comparisons have on us. A player comparison anchors our perception of that prospect to that reference point.

Our very own brains are designed to want to make player comparisons and that is a very bad thing for players.

The Truth About NBA Draft History

The cold hard truth is most players drafted don’t have successful NBA careers.

I looked at 30 draft classes from when the NBA draft became just two rounds in 1989 up through 2018. In that time 1742 players were drafted. If you had to guess, how many of those players found NBA success? 

• Only 10% of the players in those 30 drafts have been All-Stars.
• Only 6% have made an All-NBA team. 
• Only 4% have made an All-Defensive team. 
• Only 1% have been named Defensive Player of the Year.
• Only 1% have been named Most Valuable Player.

But those measures are for the best of the NBA of course the odds are low. And those aren’t the only criteria for NBA success you might say. And you’d be right.

Of those 1742 players over three decades of drafts, only 27% had a 10+ season NBA career. And only 53% of them made it to year five in their NBA careers. 

That’s right. Almost half of those players drafted did not last longer than a current rookie scale deal. 

The cold hard truth is most players drafted don’t have successful NBA careers.

Our brains compel us to compare draft prospects to successful NBA players despite the FACT that most prospects will not find NBA success. This is a problem.

How Player Comparisons Hurt

Since most prospects don’t go on to have NBA success and most player comparisons are to successful NBA players we are just setting unrealistic expectations. 

The NBA is already a high-pressure environment but it is magnified when people expect you to be the “next _____.” These unrealistic expectations can actively work against the player. 

Based on a player comparison the coach may put a player in a role they are not ready for and then cut their minutes when they can’t live up to the unfair expectation. In a game where confidence and rhythm are massively important, an unrealistic player comparison can really set a player back.

The media and fans can turn the pressure up to 11 by unfairly labeling a player as a bust. And, failure to live up to unrealistic expectations can lead the front office to trade them or not offer a second contract. 

Furthermore, disappointment from players unable to live up to unrealistic player comparisons can impact scouts too. The confidence decision makers have in your ability slips as might your job security. 

There is clearly a real problem with player comparisons, so why do people use them? 

How Player Comparisons Can Help

A picture is worth a thousand words and a comparison to something familiar can cut through a 5,000+ word scouting report. Putting a prospect’s evaluation in terms the audience already understands can communicate your point quickly and more clearly. Since a scout’s job is to convince the General Manager which player to bet literal millions on, being able to tie an evaluation to a successful NBA player the GM already likes can be the thing that makes your guy their guy.

I’ve experienced this secondhand myself. One time an NBA executive invited me to go on a scouting trip with him. He mentioned how he was struggling to convince the GM to sign the player he thought was the cure to one of their ills. 

They needed a dirty work physical enforcer to protect their star. I said, “It sounds like you could use an Oakley type.” He got excited by this and said that framing could seal the deal with the GM.  

He used that comparison to convince the GM to sign the player. That player came in mid-season and wound up playing the 6th most minutes in the most successful playoffs the franchise had since the 90s. 

So player comparisons can help but often lead to unrealistic expectations that hurt. How should we proceed? 

How Do We Fix The Problem?

The safest approach would be to eliminate player comparisons completely. However, I do think there is a compromise here we can make. If you are going to use a player comparison just make it very specific. 

Instead of just dropping a name be specific about which of the prospect’s skills and attributes actually remind you of that player. 

Saying Ben McLemore reminds you of Ray Allen sets the unrealistic expectation of living up to a Hall of Famer with a much more developed game. As a prospect, Ben McLemore was praised for his smooth shooting mechanics and exciting athletic bounce. This combination of skill and physical traits reminded a lot of people of UCONN and Bucks-era Ray Allen.

But instead of saying that those specific skills and traits reminded them of young Ray Allen people just compared him straight up to Ray Allen. Of course, Ray Allen was very skilled at creating his own looks off the dribble which McLemore struggled with. This general player comparison to Ray Allen set vastly higher expectations than Ben McLemore could realistically meet.

At the end of his rookie scale contract Sacramento declined to offer him the qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. The team that was so excited to draft him at #7 four years earlier felt he hadn’t lived up to expectations and was moving on. To date, Ben McLemore has had a nine-season NBA career while playing 556 games for five different teams.

General player comparisons set unreasonable expectations that often hurt a prospect’s career. Avoid using them or, at least, be very specific about what exactly reminds you of another player. Saying Ben McLemore’s shot mechanics and athleticism remind you of Ray Allen communicates your point without expecting him to be the second coming of Jesus . . . Shuttlesworth.

Final Thoughts

Our brains are designed to make us want to compare prospects to successful NBA players. But most prospects do not find NBA success. These unrealistic expectations hurt players’ careers. If you do use player comparisons, be specific about exactly which aspects remind you of the other player.

The post The Problem With Player Comps appeared first on Swish Theory.

This is part two of their conversation with Neema, the first part can be found in Episode 5 covering the prospects on the Houston Rockets.

The post Ep. 6: Scoot Henderson and the G-League Ignite with @findingneema23 appeared first on Swish Theory.

In Henderson, Nevada, the G League Ignite team looks to enter its third season as an organization. The development program has spent the last two seasons in flux, with many outside the organization questioning whether or not the team is effective in its goals or what they may even be. Now, with a rebrand that establishes the team with a home and identity, Team Ignite is here to prove their goal of creating consummate professionals who are willing to go through whatever it takes to improve.

A Real Home

Moving to the Vegas suburb full-time, “we have a home,” remarked a relieved-sounding Assistant Coach Rod Baker in an exclusive interview. Coach Baker is entering his second season with Team Ignite after previously being a scout for the 76ers. “Last year… even though Vegas was supposed to be our home, it really wasn’t.” In the previous season, G League Ignite spent training days out of Walnut Creek, California, the team’s original home when first established in April 2020. Team Ignite played their home games out of the Michelob ULTRA Arena at Mandalay Bay resort in Las Vegas, but they spent the latter half of the season traveling the United States on the “Ignite Tour.” Now, the team has moved entirely to the Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, with a purple and black rebrand that will reignite the organization. “Shock the System,” the new slogan says. This slogan indicates that Team Ignite is ready to change the system of pre-NBA basketball and is creating an atmosphere that the team has not had before, one of an organization that knows its identity.

The Last Two Seasons

In previous years, G League Ignite has had plenty of criticism for the structure that they’ve established. In the first season, the bubble environment was not adequate for scouting the prospects, and their short season forced scouts to make decisions on very small sample sizes. While top prospects Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga still managed to see themselves become top-10 picks, other highly touted prospects Isaiah Todd and Daishen Nix slipped in placement after poor outings in just a few games. In season two, there may have been even less stability. The team was consistently on the road, and the games were often not taken seriously due to the exhibition-centric schedule. “It was almost like you’re playing a scrimmage,” said Director of Performance Ernest DeLosAngeles, also speaking exclusively to Swish Theory. Ernest oversees all aspects of physical development and performance for Team Ignite. “They knew they weren’t going to play in the [championship], so they were just playing these games with nothing really to play for.”

Coach Rod Baker echoed this sentiment: “It was difficult [to win]. It seemed like every game was an exhibition game. When we would come to town…[the NBA competition] would send their guys down and stack their [G League affiliate]. Because it was us.” The tougher competition, mixed with the intense travel schedule, led to a challenging season for the team and saw some players’ draft stock take a hit. Namely, former #2 ranked by RSCI recruit Jaden Hardy, who fell to the 37^th pick of the 2022 NBA Draft. However, with a home in Henderson, Coach DeLosAngeles and Coach Baker feel that the new sense of stability will benefit the team as they embark on a full G League schedule for the team’s first time in history. 

Finding Prospects

When it comes to selecting prospects for the team, Team Ignite makes sure they are bringing in players that fit their brand. Being in Vegas can raise questions, especially for a team housing many young players, but Coach Baker feels like it is a non-issue. “They don’t have a ‘get in trouble’ gene,” he said, “we want character guys who come from character families who see this as an opportunity to realize their dreams.” And character guys they are. Last season, many were shocked by the rise of MarJon Beauchamp, a former 4-star recruit out of Yakima, Washington, who had previously fallen out of love with basketball. After a year of training at Chameleon BX and re-finding himself and his passion for the game through religion, MarJon became a Junior College star at Yakima Community College. G League Ignite then offered him an opportunity to play pro, and he flourished in his role. “We did not run one play for MarJon,” said Coach Baker. However, his hard work ethic and constant on-court effort made him a first-round pick. 

Many of the players that come through the Ignite program exude a similar work ethic and aspiration to get better. When asked what all the prospects have had in common in the last three years, Coach DeLosAngeles responded with “[their] genuine interest in getting better.” Team Ignite has pitched its program as an opportunity to become a professional. This team allows young prospects to separate themselves from the college lifestyle, learn NBA sets, and play with NBA rules against some of the best talents in the world. Unlike the alternative of playing internationally, they can play in the United States, under the NBA umbrella, and reap the rewards of these resources. “[We are] instilling professional habits in them,” Coach DeLosAngeles continued, “that’s been the best feedback I’ve gotten from across the league. [The prospects]…have already developed those habits.”

Former Ignite alumni like Dyson Daniels and Jalen Green have exhibited this willingness to learn. Dyson Daniels and Pelicans Assistant Coach Fred Vinson have built a rapport with one another as they consistently work on Daniels’ shooting form. After the first preseason game of the 2022 season, Jalen Green said in a postgame interview, “I try to be as coachable as possible.” The players on Team Ignite recognize their flaws as players and are willing to improve their game and give into a routine. 

However, these players aren’t just highly driven, hard-working, and ready to learn. A sense of confidence comes with taking the G League route over a more traditional college experience. Players are betting on themselves, their ability to soak up information, and their willingness to improve by opting to play pro and losing their amateur status. While the G League does offer a salary, many have worried about how the new Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rules could affect future G League Ignite recruitment. NIL rules allow college athletes to profit off their name, image, and likeness, and these laws are still expanding and being manipulated today due to being very new and causing an extreme shift in the amateur landscape.

The NIL implementation has already made waves in college basketball, with players like Ant Black being recruited to Arkansas via a Walmart deal or Nigel Pack getting $800k to play two seasons at the University of Miami. Many believe these laws have already impacted Team Ignite’s recruitment, with them getting zero single-year prospects out of American high schools this season. Coach Rod Baker, however, believes it is a non-issue. “We don’t even really think about it,” Coach Baker said, “if you’re coming here just for the money, it’s not going to work.” Team Ignite has managed to narrow down its list of potential players simply by having them accept offers at NCAA institutions with promises of money in return. While Ignite pays a salary, the commitment to the program is about getting better in a pro setting, not solely immediate financial gain. “You’re going to come to Ignite to realize your dreams,” Coach Baker continued, “it’s the difference between short and long money.”

Putting Together a Team

So far, Team Ignite has had a pretty good track record of getting players drafted. In two years, the team has had six players get drafted, and two receive two-way contracts immediately after draft day. This season, the team has its most diverse roster to date, with veterans who fit the mold of the team’s vision. “We wanted to get younger [veterans],” Coach Baker said. “We wanted to get guys who can still impact the game, and I think we’ve done that.” In previous seasons, the veteran slots were often allotted to older players, many of whom have looked to make a move into the Player Development space. Former G League Ignite alumni Jarrett Jack and Reggie Hearn have secured Player Development positions with teams. Last year’s roster of Pooh Jeter, Amir Johnson, and, for a short time, CJ Miles, showed that G League Ignite was willing to bring in older veterans to mentor their players.

However, even with Jeter remaining a member of the roster, this year’s team seems to have pivoted to younger players who still have plenty of experience. Newly added 31-year-old John Jenkins brings in a shooting prowess that team Ignite missed while also having a unique path from which the prospects can learn. Jenkins was a first-round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2012, playing seven seasons on and off in the NBA before playing for BCM Gravelines-Dunkerque in France. Sharpshooters Aubrey Dawkins and Cameron Young are both in their mid-twenties, spending most of their careers in the G League or overseas. Marcus Graves spent last season with the Stockton Kings, and provides Team Ignite with another ball-handler who can make plays. Eric Mika and James Southerland round out the veterans, who have had lengthy careers overseas. This new group of veterans has come from many walks of life but are all at G League Ignite to get better and mentor these prospects. Their ability to space the floor and move the ball makes them key players for Team Ignite this season.

Training and Mentoring

In terms of the training and mentoring process, Coach DeLosAngeles breaks down how the team goes about training prospects and veterans. “Leading up to the season, we break them into two groups: prospects and veterans.” Coach DeLosAngeles corrects himself, calling the veterans “older guys” because some veterans are still relatively young and early in their careers. “We want [the prospects] to get acquainted with each other, and then we start mixing in the older guys. We make them interact in the weight room.. and we do this strategically based [on] who we thought would be a good mentor for whatever prospect it was.” Many of the prospects this season have come into Team Ignite with more experience than in previous years, and Coach DeLosAngeles has also noticed this go into training. “Everybody’s training is different based on their training age.” Training age is a term many physical trainers use to explain the amount of time an athlete has undergone physical training. The more physical training you have received in your life, the further ahead you are in your training age. This year’s roster has had many players who have been in professional environments.

Because of this, the weight room has come a bit easier, and the players have given in to using training as competitive fuel. “You see the competitive nature [in the players] when given certain tasks in the weight room,” Coach DeLosAngeles said, “that instinct to show up the person next to me.” This competitive drive surrounds Team Ignite, an aura that each member of the team and staff carries with them. And with a fusion of experienced, skilled veterans and some unique prospects, Team Ignite seems poised to take on their incoming season. 

Looking At This Year’s Prospects

As previously mentioned, this year’s class of prospects has an unusual amount of experience coming into G League Ignite. Star player and the projected #2 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson, enters his second season with team Ignite. In his first year, Henderson averaged (per 70) 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.0 assists. As a two-year player, Henderson spent most of his first season coming off the bench for Ignite. However he often was the best prospect on the court, having multiple 30-point games and taking over games with his high motor and quick reflexes.

Scoot is joined in the backcourt by Frenchman Sidy Cissoko, who has spent his years growing up in the Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz system in Spain. He made his debut for the Baskonia senior team in their 2021-22 season, but was quickly sent to Juarista ICB in the Spanish second league. Cissoko struggled to stand out, but looks to find his niche here with Team Ignite.

In the frontcourt, one of the more promising prospects on the team is Canadian forward Leonard Miller. Although Miller was draft-eligible last season, he opted to take the G League Ignite route after a suboptimal performance at the NBA Draft Combine. Leonard is a 6’11” forward with great ball-handling abilities and quick movements that make him a versatile defender. Miller spent his last year at Fort Erie Academy in Canada, making him the least experienced single-year prospect on G League Ignite this season.

Also in the frontcourt with Miller is Center Efe Abogidi. Abogidi spent two seasons at Washington State University, averaging (per 70), 16.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.6 blocks. An athletic rim runner and rim protector, Efe brings something team Ignite greatly missed last season. He also provides Scoot with a PnR lob threat, a connection that likely will be seen plenty of times throughout the season.

And finally, the last but one of the most intriguing single-year prospects on Team Ignite is Mojave King. King is an Australian swingman who played his previous two years in the National Basketball League (NBL). After a tough season with the Cairns Taipans, King played with the Adelaide 36ers after the departure of Josh Giddey. However, King found himself getting inconsistent minutes, and was put into many situations that did not fit his game. The former NBA Academy standout grew up next to Giddey and former Ignite alumni Dyson Daniels, sometimes even outplaying both of them when sharing the same court. King looks to prove he is right there with the two former top-10 picks and Team Ignite provides him the platform to do so. 

There are also two two-year players on the roster this season. London Johnson is a Jamaican-American from Norcross, Georgia. A former teammate of Scoot Henderson, Johnson is a 6’4” guard with a knack for scoring the basketball. The other two-year prospect is Babacar Sane, a NBA African Academy standout who spent the last season playing in the Basketball Africa League (BAL). In an interview with Andscape, Sane said he sees this as an opportunity to represent the continent of Africa and show what they can do. Babacar’s journey has been one that many in NBA circles have followed, as he has been a part of the Sports for Education and Economic Development (SEED project) for standouts in the NBA academies, and now hopes to become the 2nd African-born player to get drafted from G League Ignite. On integrating the two-year players, Coach Baker reminded of the management of Scoot Henderson in the previous season. “I don’t know if he started any games last year,” Coach said (he started the final two games only), “and this is this guy that’s going to be the number one or two pick in this upcoming draft. Those two-year guys know that their path is a little different [than the one-year players], but it’s about the development.” 

The Upcoming Grind

Now with a full 50-game schedule, there may be more opportunity to develop the two-year players in-game, although some changes will be made when it comes to practice and training. In the last 3 seasons, Team Ignite’s number of games have almost doubled yearly (from 13, to 27, now 53 including exhibitions). The players may now have one of the more rigorous schedules of any of their other draft class counterparts, playing more games with more extensive travel. “The one thing that we focused on was trying to get the guys in a little bit earlier just to build the capacity to be able to handle the demands that they’re going to be faced with the next week,” Coach DeLosAngeles said. This mental and physical preparation is key to not just their G League season, but preparing for the rigor of the NBA. “They gotta get used to the grind,” Coach Baker said, “Packing that suitcase, unpacking that suitcase…getting to the plane, getting to the arena, all those things they’re going to have to get used to.” With the added travel and extra games, Coach Baker recognizes some of the loss that comes with it. “For me, it’s 20 less days of practice which is 20 less days of development.” However, the additional playing experience will help offset this loss of practice, as the players get more meaningful reps and more chances to showcase their abilities.

Team Ignite opened their season with two exhibition games against Metropolitans-92 and top prospect Victor Wembanyama. The teams split the games in what was one of the best showings of basketball in recent memory. The two top prospects in Wembanyama and Henderson went at each other in the first game, trading buckets and defensive stops, each taking over the game whenever they pleased. In the second game however, Henderson went down early with an ankle injury after a collision with Wembanyama, and Mets-92 managed to hold off Team Ignite to secure the win, despite great showings by Mojave King and Leonard Miller. Now, the team starts their G League season on November 4th against the Oklahoma City Blue in their regular season debut at their new home in Henderson. 

Setting Up The Future

When it comes to the on-court production, the team tries to play their prospects in roles that will translate to the NBA, something that many other teams cannot provide. “Not everybody is going to be Jalen Green,” says Coach Baker, “what role are you going to play when you get [to the NBA]? That’s what we’re trying to prepare them for.” What Team Ignite has done in the last two seasons is provide an alternate avenue for pre-NBA basketball, however this next season proves to have a greater meaning. Without distractions of college or NIL, and now with an identity and a home in Henderson, G League Ignite allows the players an opportunity to focus solely on basketball and self-improvement. “It’s about getting better,” said Coach Baker. “Try and build as many good habits as you can,” echoes Coach DeLosAngeles. 

The staff is dedicated to improving the players to be the best in their roles on and off the court. G League Ignite is molding players who understand how to become the best they can be. With a class of upstanding talent, they look to prove once again that they are here to shock the system.

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G League Ignite point guard Scoot Henderson is in his second year with the GLI program. In year one, Scoot began the season with a broken rib. This forced him to miss the first few games of the season, but he quickly took the league by storm. In his second game in the G League as a 17 year old, Henderson scored 31 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists against the Santa Cruz Warriors. With 5 other prospects on the roster, Henderson did not get a ton of opportunity in his first year on team Ignite. But in just 25 minutes a game, he managed to average 14.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.2 assists.

Now in year 2, as the only prospect in Ignite history to play for two years, Scoot has been handed the keys to the offense. In his first preseason game against Metropolitans-92 and #1 ranked prospect Victor Wembanyama, Henderson scored 28 points and 9 assists, and dominated on both ends of the floor. Henderson looked impressive in year 2, although has been hindered by injuries throughout the year, 16.5 points, 5.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists, a jump from last year, but still not what many expected. Still, even with the injuries, Scoot is a once-in-a-while type point guard that teams won’t be able to pass up on.

Offense:

Scoot Henderson falls under our “Guard Initiator” archetype, exemplifying all the traits of what make a premier initiator. One of his strongest skills is his ability to get to the rim. Henderson improved his rim finishing this year, from 55% to 60%, with 2/3rds of his attempts unassisted. Henderson is arguably one of the more athletic guards in recent draft history. This gives him an advantage getting to the rim. His core control allows him to take hits midair, and his ability to contort lets him finish around longer defenders. He has the ability to decelerate and lose a defender, power through them or simply jump right over them. Regularly beating the first line of defense, Henderson is one of the best at getting to the rim in this class.

His ability to get to the rim also makes him a “Drive & Kick” threat. Last season, team Ignite struggled from beyond, being in the bottom of the league in 3 point percentage and attempts. This season however, the team is built to show Scoot’s strengths. One of them is the gravity he provides getting to the rim. Now, he is able to capitalize on a collapsing defense, kicking the ball out to elite shooters like Cameron Young, Aubrey Dawkins and John Jenkins.

Scoot also proved to be a great off-ball player, especially when playing off of big man Eric Mika. His ability to play off bigs, or other guards makes him a more intriguing pure point prospect. Henderson is great at cutting to the basket and finding spaces in the defense where he can use his quickness to create an open look. With an improved jumper, Scoot could become one of the best point guards in the NBA in his generation.

Defense:

On defense, Henderson files under the “Primary POA” defender, often guarding the other teams lead initiator. Henderson’s strengths lie in his “High Motor” and “Active Hands”. Often digging into the ball handler, Henderson excels at poking the ball away and getting out on the fastbreak. When off-ball, Henderson is disruptive as a help defender. He often is able to poke the ball loose from post players, or jump passing lanes and deflecting it away. Henderson averaged 3.5 deflections per game his first season, a number that would rank 2nd among Point Guards in the NBA. His defensive energy and ability to read the opposing offense make him a tough matchup for any initiator. This, combined with his breakneck speed and incredible athleticism, are why he is such a threat in transition. While his defense has regressed from his first year with GLI, he still was one of the best defenders on the team, and had some flashes of greatness on this end.

Conclusion:

Scoot Henderson is unanimously a top 2 prospect in this draft class per our draft board, and will need to do unspeakable things to surpass Victor Wembanyama, but his placement as the #2 is (relatively) secure. In any other draft, Henderson would easily be the top player in the class. His offensive prowess and defensive energy make him a unique PG prospect that many teams would jump to have.

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