Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/shai-gilgeous-alexander/ Basketball Analysis & NBA Draft Guides Fri, 19 Jul 2024 20:08:31 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8 https://i0.wp.com/theswishtheory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Favicon-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Archives | Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/tag/shai-gilgeous-alexander/ 32 32 214889137 Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2024/07/top-ten-playoff-scorers-of-2024/ Thu, 11 Jul 2024 14:09:53 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=12877 Great playoff scoring runs are some of the most exciting things in sports, but how do they stack up to each other? Comparing playoff stats has always been difficult. Players play different amounts of games, and individual series can have drastically different scoring environments. Some are track meets while others are low-efficiency grindfests. To remedy ... Read more

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Great playoff scoring runs are some of the most exciting things in sports, but how do they stack up to each other? Comparing playoff stats has always been difficult. Players play different amounts of games, and individual series can have drastically different scoring environments. Some are track meets while others are low-efficiency grindfests. To remedy that problem I am introducing “Modern Playoff Scoring Runs”, an app that aims to solve the problems listed above by using points per 75 possessions to account for pace of play and true shooting percentage relative to the series played in to help adjust for scoring environment. For example if a player has a 110 TS+ relative to the series they played in this means they were 10% more efficient than the average scorer in that series. 

The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

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ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/10/roundtable-bold-predictions-for-the-2023-24-nba-season/ Wed, 25 Oct 2023 21:45:32 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=8780 Roshan: The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference. Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. ... Read more

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Roshan:

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

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Seven Ways to Break Out https://theswishtheory.com/nba/2023/09/seven-ways-to-break-out/ Fri, 01 Sep 2023 15:18:22 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=7918 In the doldrums of summer it can be easy to let the narratives run away with themselves. With no new NBA basketball, imaginations run wild, and there is none more fertile ground for idle speculation than the Most Improved Player award. This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for ... Read more

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In the doldrums of summer it can be easy to let the narratives run away with themselves. With no new NBA basketball, imaginations run wild, and there is none more fertile ground for idle speculation than the Most Improved Player award.

This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.


Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.


Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

via dunksandthrees.com

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.


Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.


Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.


Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.


Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

via dunksandthrees.com

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.


Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

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Ep 3: The Oklahoma City Thunder with @ThunderFilmRoom https://theswishtheory.com/podcasts/ep-3-the-oklahoma-city-thunder-with-thunderfilmroom/ Fri, 24 Mar 2023 19:39:02 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?post_type=podcasts&p=5600 David and Tyler welcome their first guest Yosef (@ThunderFilmRoom) to break down the development of the young Oklahoma City Thunder. They start off discussing the growth and long-term fit between Josh Giddy and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander before digging into Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jalen Williams and Ousmane Dieng.

The post Ep 3: The Oklahoma City Thunder with @ThunderFilmRoom appeared first on Swish Theory.

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David and Tyler welcome their first guest Yosef (@ThunderFilmRoom) to break down the development of the young Oklahoma City Thunder. They start off discussing the growth and long-term fit between Josh Giddy and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander before digging into Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jalen Williams and Ousmane Dieng.

The post Ep 3: The Oklahoma City Thunder with @ThunderFilmRoom appeared first on Swish Theory.

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