First, in his own words:

A 6’7 shooter from the University of Toledo, JT Shumate is one of the more interesting evaluations in the 2023 draft class. He’s a prime example of a player whose role in college is significantly different than what it projects to be in the NBA.

Offense

Offensively, JT’s game is built around his long range shooting. He shot an extremely impressive 44.4% from 3pt on 284 attempts over his final 2 years at Toledo, backed up by an also excellent 84.6% from the FT line over the same stretch. He showed a solid amount of versatility as a shooter in college as well, primarily operating in pick-and-pop/catch and shoot scenarios but also showing occasional flashes of movement shooting and self-created looks.

If you’re nitpicking you could point to his lack of 3pt volume (career 6.7 3PA/100 possessions at Toledo) being a solid bit lower than most high end shooters (for reference, Gradey Dick, Jett Howard, and Brandon Miller all shot at least 10 3PA/100 possessions or higher this season), but otherwise his profile as a shooter is about as strong as you could ask for in a forward prospect.

JT also has some definite skill inside the arc on offense, although it can be tricky to determine how much it translates given the amount of center Shumate played in college. JT was effective as a post scorer and P&R screener at the college level, but it’s unlikely that JT’s NBA role would feature much usage in either of those playtypes. His ability to attack closeouts and finish at the rim were also strengths for Shumate in college, and could be more translatable NBA skills. In that case he projects primarily as a tall shooting floor spacer rather than a versatile scorer, but potentially a good one at that.

Defense

Defensively, Shumate was also used in a much different fashion than he’ll be asked to play in the NBA. Despite being 6’7” with a 6’9” wingspan, Toledo commonly played JT at center where he held his own for the most part. There were definitely times where Shumate got overpowered by bigger 5’s and he’ll very likely never be a teams primary rim protector in the NBA, but he did manage to average 2.4 blocks/100 possessions in his college career and some of the timing and instincts he showed as a shot blocker could definitely be an asset as more of a secondary rim protector at the next level. 

The toughest area of evaluation for JT by far is his defense in space out on the perimeter. It’s a skill that makes or breaks the NBA chances for a lot of big shooters like Shumate, and he frankly didn’t get a lot of reps as a traditional wing or forward defender at Toledo due to them needing him on the interior. In the rare occasions that he was defending out on the perimeter, he did look pretty comfortable and moved his feet well. There’s a big difference between guarding situationally in the MAC and having to defend NBA wings and forwards full time, but if he’s is able to hold up in that regard there’s a good chance that the rest of JT’s game is enough to carve out a spot at the next level.

The post JT Shumate appeared first on Swish Theory.

First, in his own words:

Kam’Ron Blue, a redshirt senior from Greenville S.C., is a 6-7 wing who played for Coppin State in the 2022-23 season. Before that, he was at Daytona State in junior college for two seasons, then a season at Mississippi Valley State, another at Fordham. 

Offense

At Coppin State, Kam’s usage was cut down to mostly being a spacer and cutter. In the games I watched, Coppin played with almost exclusively a 5-out offense with minimal player movement. 

Kam’s main usage came from spotting up behind the line. He converted 35% on his 139 three point attempts this season – mostly in catch and shoot situations. He looked really confident in his shot, rarely influenced even by back-to-back misses, a positive indicator. Against most closeouts, he was able to just shoot over or do the old pump fake / fly by combo to create enough room to shoot. Over his collegiate career, he was a 32% 3PT shooter on 284 attempts. In junior college, he went 65-178 3PA (36.5%) which is another positive indicator in regard to his shooting numbers being sustainable. You can question the portability of the 3-point numbers to a certain extent, but when it comes to free-throw shooting, Kam has a really positive history being a reliable guy at the line, hitting 81% of his 67 free-throw attempts in junior college. In division I, his percentage dropped to 46% on just 48 attempts in his three seasons. Both numbers are possibly too loud to be true, but I see no reason why he couldn’t be at least an average free throw shooter with a more reliable sample. 

I think there could be an underlying ability to at least attack closeouts over the long term. Every now and then he flashes solid straight line drives and got to show his strong vertical ability. In transition, he is able to attack in a more open space with and without the ball and pressure the rim.  Kam’Ron is a pretty solid athlete overall and showed flashes making quick decisions and attacking gaps directly off the catch in a few occasions in his career high 34-point outburst. However, the spatial awareness and decision making process needs a bit of work, as he found himself too often in gaps his ball handler was about to drive into, took his own defender into a better help position because he left his stationary spot up or wasn’t able to create a passing angle. On the other hand, there are moments where Kam looks like a devastating cutter, slicing the defense with well-timed backdoor cuts or occupying the dunker spot and finishing strong with his vertical presence. For being mainly tasked to be a spot up guy with overall limited offensive usage, the 16 dunks in 32 games are a pretty good indicator of his functional athleticism. 

At Coppin, it seems to have not been his role to attack off the catch and make decisions as he looked more to take one or two dribbles and quickly pass out instead of using his slashing ability to get to the rim. Speaking of rim pressure, according to bart torvik, he finished 63% of his attempts at the rim on 44 rim attempts which is a good sign for someone with a rather limited usage overall. Even in potential grab and go situations, it seems like the emphasis is more on a controlled buildup in the halfcourt than push the tempo – as Kam rarely was allowed to bring the ball up after grabbing the rebound, even with a good amount of space ahead of him. Overall, it looks like he was dutied to be almost exclusively a play finisher without much decision making tasks. 

Defense

On the defensive end, Kam mostly was deployed on top of the zone in the games I watched, occasionally moving to the wing or middle making rotations or switching. As a point of attack guy, I like how well he uses his length and overall horizontal movement to stay in front of the ball handler and make solid recoveries into position. He took effort in communicating with his teammates and overall showed a good feel for rotations and a willingness to defend even on multiple efforts within a possession. The results are then often negative as far as Kam making an impact on the finishing play. On the processing side of things, Kam sometimes looks to be a bit too slow recognizing rotations and switches which could hurt him playing in a higher level environment. 

Overall

It’s hard to get the full picture of Kam’Ron as a prospect. He played with an extremely short leash and very limited decision making capability on offense. The overall package of size, athleticism and shooting indicators are really intriguing. The range of outcomes depends on how good he will become as a modern three and D wing – blending shooting with connective skills like closeout attacking with his driving game and some passing to keep the advantage alive, and how good he becomes at the nuances of the aforementioned skills. 

The post Kam’Ron Blue appeared first on Swish Theory.

The short scouting report pitch for Mutts is a connector / finisher hybrid who can hold his own on defense. A scheme-solving PF who processes the floor with the best of them.

But the narrative of how he’s gotten here is just as interesting. A fifth-year player who sat out a year due to transfer, Mutts was one of the oldest players in college basketball as turned 24 in January. But if you’re going to use all your eligibility, there better be something to show for it. Mutts perhaps has as much to show for his development within the NCAA as any upperclassman, encouraging that he will adapt to whatever new challenge at the next level.

Starting his career at High Point in the Big South Conference, Mutts was more of an energy wing. He won by slashing to the basket with his motor, length and handle, getting from point A to B in an instant. He sat out a year to then transfer to Delaware in the CAA, then learning how to play the high/low game, more of a post-up flex player they trusted to give over 20% usage.

The flashes of passing vision were there, and obvious:

The execution was improving, as slowing the game down was one of the areas for improvement before. He added almost a full extra steal per 100 possessions while fouling once less.

His time at Virginia Tech, however, is when it all started to click.

First, the passing.

Mutts is a good connective passer first for Virginia Tech, making sure the action gets set up and the shooters their touches. However, he also has a chaotic creativity that few do, adapting as the actions break down. In particular he is adept at finding cutters in rhythm. Mutts is always in sync with what his teammates are trying to do and gets them the ball where they can use it.

His assists per 100 ballooned all the way to 7.7 this past year, at a 1.6x ratio to his turnovers. Most notably, he figured out how to use his dribble to create angles, with his ability to get to the rim quickly meaning bigs have to help last second as Justyn is dumping the ball off to his teammate.

The true swing skill on offense is his distance shooting, where results have been mixed. He has never taken more than 50 threes in a season, but is an adequate 30% from distance. His range seems to be well within midrange, though, going 137-333 for a respectable 41% over his NCAA career. His free throw percentage is low/mid-60s, not great but not broken. A corner three is not out of the question, but will need to catch up from lack of reps so far in his basketball career.

Being able to hit in midrange is enough to keep his passing options open, however, and I don’t see anything unworkable in the mechanics. His best weapon is his over the shoulder mini-hook, particularly after spinning into opponents to create space and give himself a rhythm. When he’s decisive getting into it, the routine maximizes his passing threat, rim threat and ambidexterity. He spent a lot of time finding the gaps in the opponent’s defense at Virginia Tech, cutting into an open dunker spot or flashing to mid-post after screens.

The defensive end is where Mutts is the most of a tweener. He could be seen used all over as Virginia Tech’s best, biggest athlete, for example guarding Paolo Banchero one minute and AJ Griffin the next in their ACC title win. The Hokies used him mainly on post ups to start the 2022-23 season but eventually placed more on wings.

Mutts moves well for his size and strength, likely close to an average NBA athlete if still far from the best of the best. But he’ll be able to hang for stretches at a time, and even switch briefly if needed.

He has learned how to be ultra-opportunistic, reading the floor faster than his younger opponents. The activity is generally good, but with advances to his fitness could find even more ways to weaponize his +7 wingspan.

In fact, there were only four other high major players who got steals and blocks as frequently as Mutts while fouling 3x or less per 40 minutes as he did. His feet could be a little quicker on isos, his leaping could be better off of two feet, and he will likely be too short to handle true bigs, but Mutts has shown enough to believe he’ll consistently hang in. His backpedal is good, and, when combined with an elite wingspan (7’3”) and hand placement give him plenty of opportunities to stay in a play.

It was difficult to choose between big or forward for Mutts’ position. He was certainly a big for Virginia Tech, and his ability to set heavy screens while quickly catching the ball into a decision-making position is extremely valuable for getting onto the floor as a rookie. I am not confident in him as a catch and shoot threat, and therefore more screens/less shooting for me means he will be best suited as a big. He is an ideal smallball/zone-busting big, with his ability to thrive as a forward on offense contingent on finding a system to maximize his passing/slashing/screen-setting combo.

In that case, offensive rebounding might be the swing skill instead of shooting. Mutts has a strong preference for leaping off of one foot versus two, usually not a major issue but, if he can improve off two, will increase his odds of winning the dirty battles down low that would give him even more scheme flexibility. If he can survive against 6’10” post bigs that will allow an NBA team lineup flexibility, then letting Mutts burn a slower-footed opponent on offense.

In all, I’m excited to see how Justyn fits in on an NBA court, as I believe the skills and athleticism are enough to earn some experimentation from perhaps a young team trying to glue together their play finisher bets. Or a playoff team looking to scheme-proof their bench. Justyn has all the traits of what you need in a big wing/small big connector piece with bankable skills and a nose for knowing how plays will develop.

The post Justyn Mutts appeared first on Swish Theory.