In 1995, 12 wolves were transferred from Western Canada to two different acclimatization pens in the Yellowstone National Park in an effort to restore the wolf populations of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.

This was just the first of many steps that led to the current, healthy wolf populations and to a series of numerous direct and indirect consequences that unexpectedly even positively affected the landscape of the park itself.

The wolves started putting pressure on the elk population, diminishing their number, thus allowing the willows to start recolonizing the park. The increased availability of building materials allowed beavers to thrive and expand, and ultimately the countless engineering works of these rodents modified the course of the rivers. An incredible story that became emblematic of the crucial balancing role of apex predators within habitats.

This dynamic is called “trophic cascade” and is also identifiable in other lesser known situations like the reintroduction of the Tasmanian devil.

This video pretty much became a cornerstone of whatever ecology course of study.

What does this even have to do with basketball?

When I started watching some G League games and stats this season, something didn’t feel right to me. The “landscape” didn’t look the same as I remembered.

Thinking about the possible reasons that caused such a change in the teams’ rotations I remembered the recent introduction of a third two-way contract. This brought to my mind the Yellowstone wolves and I hypothesized that this could lead to a similar series of ripple effects.

Is it possible that a small change in a crucial part of the system caused a major change in the scenery? Is it possible that the addition of the third two-way caused a significant shift in the minute distributions?

No Country For Rookies

What first struck me as I approached this G League season was the apparent scarcity of rookies playing prominent roles.

When I try to decide which game to watch I look up box scores on the G League site, and I’m generally subject to the “New Shiny Toy Syndrome,” preferring to watch games where a bunch of rookies play a relevant role. I found it much more difficult in the first part of the 2024-25 season, and I often ended up watching the same few teams.

Trying to clarify the situation, the first thing I did was check the stats on the beloved and despised G League site (clear room for improvement for a more enjoyable and easily accessible product, as I pointed out in another article) which confirmed my first impression.

After putting everything down on a spreadsheet, I found that the share of rookie minutes among the top 100 players dropped from 34% during the 2023-24 Showcase Tournament to 24% in the 2024-25 Tip-off Tournament. This is certainly a significant difference (it was even larger in the first months of the season, around -13/-14%) that deserves attention and further analysis.

Even just looking up box scores it is evident that some teams generally didn’t even start a rookie. For example, this was the case with the College Park Skyhawks (they had in Djurisic their rookie star, and he was still dealing with a foot injury, to be honest), Long Island Nets, Windy City Bulls, and Capital City Go-Go, which had only 83 minutes total played by rookies over the whole tournament.

The Osceola Magic (recently rebranded after the legendary chief of the Seminole) deserve a special note for the uniqueness of their case: no rookie suited up for them during the Tip-off Tournament, and they had an average age of 25.8 years.

The complete Osceola Magic roster for the Tip-Off Tournament

Could the introduction of the third two-way be the trigger of a similar change in the minutes’ distribution?

Good things come in threes

The introduction of two-way contracts in 2017 was a game changer for the empowerment of the G League. Those represented a new frontier of player development and became a tangible connection between two almost separate “habitats.”

In a matter of few seasons, the abundance of talent on the margins of the league made clear the insufficiency of just two two-way spots. Therefore, following the new Collective Bargain Agreement, the NBA introduced the possibility of signing a third player with a two-way contract starting with the 2023-24 season.

Examining how the two-way distribution changed before and after this new introduction is interesting. Obviously, the two-way contracts aren’t set in stone and things can change throughout the year, but as of today, thirty-three rookies signed a two-way contract for the 2024-25 season. During the 2022-23 season, the last before the introduction of the third two-way, 30 two-way players out of 60 available spots were occupied by rookies.

While the raw number of rookies obviously increased, the overall percentage dropped by 13%. We could suppose that the third two-way allowed the teams to approach this matter with a more developmental view, stimulating them to work on fringe players for more seasons. This means more two-way contracts are allocated to players in their second or third season.

At the time of the last CBA negotiations, the goal of the league itself was to give teams the tools to develop players with fewer than four years of experience playing part-time in the G League and in the NBA.

Along with this comes a series of considerations. There are some ifs and buts, but a two-way contract can be worth up to $578,577 (50% of the regular NBA minimum). More spots mean more potentially life-changing money for fringe players, which means more good G League players have a great reason to stay around longer, taking their chance in the minor league without signing abroad. This kind of enrichment and improvement of salary conditions for a part of the players leads to more competitiveness and to a higher level of the sport.

As an example, one of the players signed with a two-way contract most recently, Daeqwon Plowden, who is 26 and is in his third G League season, probably wouldn’t be on a two-way contract at this point of his career without the introduction of the third spot.

While a similar dynamic is clearly beneficial for the league in a vacuum and potentially more propaedeutic to NBA success, it could lead to an environment initially less friendly for rookies and newcomers.

Just a bad harvest?

While my initial hypothesis is supported by some statistical evidences as we saw, it’s probably too early to have a definitive answer for the questions posed in the introduction.

There could actually be a simpler reason that caused a similar shift in the minutes’ distribution: the level of the current rookie class.

There’s talent in every rookie class, and this year’s isn’t an exception, but it looks less rich than others that preceded it. Already during the scouting process, there were some doubts, especially about the absence of top-tier prospects, and the NBA Rookie of the Year race is confirming it so far.

Even simply looking up the playing time in the NBA, we can notice the absence of rookies playing 30 or more minutes and even how there are few playing more than 20 minutes per game. Along with it comes a general impression of a class that is struggling to shine in the league. And while this isn’t a real demonstration of a bad class, it certainly is a symptom of a weird one that is leading to an equally weird race for Rookie Of the Year with no real favorite.

The lack of rookies’ minutes in G League could be just a reflection of an overall rookie class that’s also not particularly strong or deep.

Equilibrium

In the case the league is indeed experiencing the described dynamic, this however could not last forever.

When apex predators recolonize a certain territory after an extended period of absence, the population of their main prey can face a drastic decrease because the animals don’t have the needed defensive strategies anymore and don’t know how to evade predation attempts. The casual observer can mistake it for a local extinction, but it’s just a transitory fluctuation within the normal predator-prey interactions.

An example of a model that simulates the interaction between a population of predators and preys (rights reserved to Arizona State University)

Even if there’s an apparent shift in rookie minutes and two-way allocations, this could represent a similar oscillation that the system will re-balance in the near future. It’ll be interesting to keep track of its evolution going forward.

As you probably understood reading this article, it’s very difficult to analyze and define such a volatile and ever-evolving league like the G League (just consider the league reached the ever-chased 30 teams with NBA affiliation only this season, for example) but, at the end of the day, as I said in a DM to Matt Powers when I started thinking about this article, I don’t have the perfect answer for this question, but guessing is the fun part.

The post The Changing Landscape appeared first on Swish Theory.

The youth are here to take over, yes. The old gods are dead and buried. There is no James, Curry, or Durant in this year’s final four. Even as their powers diminished, those four appeared in four of the last five conference finals. There’s not even a Jimmy Butler, who has made three of the last five.

Parity is another word looming large over this postseason. Since the Warriors dynasty broke apart, the 20 conference finals representatives have been comprised of 12 different teams. Much of the repetition comes out East, by far the weaker conference: the Celtics and Heat have 7 of the 10 ECF showings. Out West, the Nuggets, Mavericks, and Lakers have repeatedly appeared. Yet two conference finals in 5 years don’t scream dominance. More than ever, it feels like everyone has a shot.

That sentiment plays into an even more important theme in my eyes. When you look at the teams that have made deep runs, this year most of all, they took huge swings in acquiring talent. In this era of parity, those who push their chips in first are being rewarded. I want to explore the importance of forcing the window open and the rewards of temerity vs. the cost of timidness.

Dallas Swings, Thunder Go Down Looking

The Mavs-Thunder series is the clearest example of this idea. It’s frankly incredible how directly the trade ties between these two teams caused this series to shift.

Go back to the draft. Dallas owned a lottery choice but seemed intent on moving it to shed salary, and landed on sending Davis Bertans (and most importantly his $17M salary) with the 10th pick to Oklahoma City for the 12th pick. It’s hard to argue with the selections both teams made – OKC taking Cason Wallace while Dereck Lively II fell to Dallas – but the large trade exception Dallas created was huge. Sam Presti was handing an undeserved bailout to the Mavericks.

That exception was used to acquire Richaun Holmes, not exactly a game-changing acquisition, but it enabled them to do several things. After creating extra cap room, Dallas was able to acquire Grant Williams via sign-and-trade with Boston. Williams and Holmes did not pan out but became important salary ballast at the deadline. And this is where Oklahoma City only made things harder on themselves.

On February 8th, Dallas shipped out Holmes and Williams along with salary and picks for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Not only would these trades have been impossible without OKC’s draft night deal, but they helped even further by exchanging 2028 picks with Dallas to open up a 2024 first Dallas could use in these deals. It gave them the ammo needed to make two big deadline swings.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City made calls but ultimately settled on a bunt single of a trade in acquiring Gordon Hayward at the deadline. Now fast forward to the conference semifinals to see the impact of those deals.

Gafford recorded 11/7.5/1.3 with 2 blocks per game across 6 matchups with OKC. P.J. Washington was murder for the Thunder, recording 18/8/2 averages while hitting a ridiculous 47% of his 8.2 threes per game. Fittingly, Washington’s free throws at the end of Game 6 closed out the series. Gordon Hayward managed 15 inconsequential minutes in the series. Sam Presti effectively sold the Mavericks a pair of knives only to watch his team be stabbed to death by said knives. One team swung, another watched, and the swinging team ended up moving on.

And they weren’t the only team undone by their own mistakes.

Minnesota Pays Up, Denver Counts Coins

If you follow the NBA on a deeper level, you’re probably aware of the Kroenke vibe. They’re willing to cut checks for big players when necessary but will always find a way to cut costs in the end. This loss to Minnesota felt like a culmination of the pitfalls that philosophy comes with.

Minnesota threw a contract at GM Tim Connelly that Denver did not want to match, and it seemed prudent after last season as GM Calvin Booth helmed a championship team. Yet it was clear to all that it was Connelly who had his prints all over the squad. The entire starting lineup, one that dominated the 2023 playoffs, was drafted or acquired by Connelly before his departure. The Timberwolves saw what he could do and put unequivocal faith in him to build a team that could dismantle his creation.

The Rudy Gobert trade was unfairly maligned at the time and took only a year to prove everyone wrong as he anchored the best defense in the league. While Minnesota took more swings to improve on this Gobert team (acquiring Mike Conley, signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and extending their stars) Denver was content with what they had after the title. Calvin Booth told Bruce Brown not to let the door hit him on the way out. They acquired more picks to try and hit through the draft instead of getting proven talent to augment a championship roster.

When these two teams faced off, it was clear what kind of impact these moves made. Minnesota had more depth, more athleticism, and a feeling of confidence that Denver could not match. The stars performed, yes, but the role guys made the difference in the series. NAW’s defense and shooting confidence played a role. Mike Conley hit timely shot after timely shot. And on Denver’s side, guys like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson could not affect the series when the stars sat. If only there was a playmaking and defending wing Denver had in their grasp.

The throughlines of this between the two squads aren’t quite as clear as Dallas and OKC, but you can see how aggression from Minnesota’s front office won over Denver’s complacency. That’s why Minnesota is fighting for its deepest run in franchise history while Denver hits the racing track.

Knicks, Pacers Going Out On Their Shields

Regardless of who won that series, nobody could argue the Pacers or Knicks were withholding chips. Both teams went pedal to the metal during this season and reaped the rewards.

Indiana took perhaps the biggest swing of the entire deadline in acquiring Pascal Siakam, and he responded by powering them through the first two rounds of the playoffs as their leading scorer. Much hand-wringing was done when the deal was made, yet nobody can argue with the results as Indiana reaches their first conference finals in a decade.

The Knicks took an even larger amount of swings. They made moves for OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Precious Achiuwa, and Donte DiVincenzo over this past year. Donte and OG were among the primary reasons why the Knicks could win a street fight-type series against the Sixers despite the absence of Julius Randle. Had they not completely fallen apart with injuries (I am looking at you with malice, Tom Thibodeau) it feels like they would be playing Boston right now.

Sure, you could argue trading Obi Toppin to the Pacers this offseason burned them. But Toppin was buried on the depth chart at the time and would have likely fallen further behind after that bevy of acquisitions. And a 10 PPG role player who is generally heinous on defense isn’t going to be the one who got away.

Both teams swung, and both teams reaped huge rewards. And it gave them a puncher’s chance against the beasts of the East, another team not shy to make moves.

Boston Doesn’t Back Down

As previously mentioned discussing the parity of the league, only the Heat could match Boston in conference finals appearances over the previous four seasons. Yet those three showings had resulted in zero titles. In this era of “what have you done for me lately?”, many questions were being asked. Is Jayson Tatum the kind of guy who can lead a title winner? Can Jaylen Brown be his #2? At what point do we shake this up?

Instead of caving to those notions, Brad Stevens doubled and tripled down. He boldly chose to trade Marcus Smart for a better-fitting star in Kristaps Porzingis, needing little draft capital to do so. Then he went even further by taking advantage of the Damian Lillard trade to add Jrue Holiday. Instead of breaking this team apart, he only fortified their chances and was rewarded with a 64-win team that is stampeding through the Eastern Conference.

Even with Porzingis injured and unlikely to return until late in the conference finals, Boston holds a 3-0 series lead over the upstart Pacers and are overwhelming favorites to come out of the East, perhaps fully healthy. Jrue has been the playoff chess piece they needed, taking on important defensive matchups while canning 43% of his 4.7 threes per game. The role players don’t need to hit as hard when you boast Jayson, Jaylen, Jrue, Derrick White, Porzingis, and Al Horford. No team in this league can even hold a candle to that top 6.

Boston chose to push in every chip they could and are being thoroughly rewarded.

What Does This Tell Us?

Yes, young stars are indeed playing a major role. One of these four teams will represent a new title winner. All four are led by a star who is 26 years old or younger.

That only enhances the point here. All four teams could have sat back and gone “Well their primes haven’t even started yet, so we can wait” and chose instead to make short-term moves. The 2024 championship winner will be a team led by young stars whose management chose to force the window open instead of waiting for it to open naturally. The teams that have gone home already by and large chose to sit on their hands and wait.

Contention windows don’t stay open as long as you expect. Sometimes they don’t open at all. If you have the stars capable of delivering a deep run toward the Larry O’Brien trophy, take the swings now before your chance passes. It may pass sooner than you think.

The post Real Contenders Go Down Swinging appeared first on Swish Theory.