Boston’s Derrick White and Denver’s Aaron Gordon may be high-end examples, but does Dallas make the Finals last season without journeyman Derrick Jones Jr.? Does Miami make it the year before without Caleb Martin?

With that in mind, here is Part One of my Finding a Role Introduction for this season, where I’ll be tracking some of the league’s rising (potential) difference-makers. We live in the here and now, of course, focusing on how Player X can earn more minutes and dollars by increasing his value to his current team, but keep in mind the long-term undercurrent: Can these guys show up as high-end contributors on championship-level teams? How are they going to get there?

Additionally, this season’s installments of Finding a Role would not be possible without crowdscout.net, the brainchild of Swish Theory co-founder Eric Weiss (and company), a truly game-changing way to watch and catalogue film from around the NBA.

Click on the linked playlists for the CrowdScout Experience, and more context on each of these players.

Tari Eason

After being selected 17th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets, Tari Eason immediately made a name for himself by playing real hard and annoying the hell out of most of his opponents throughout his rookie season. However, his sophomore season was ended after just 22 appearances due to lower-leg injury troubles. First a stress fracture, then a surgery to address a benign growth in his shin. Not ideal.

But that sample of play — in addition to his start in 2024-25 — is more than enough to define Eason within Houston’s over-crowded room of young players a leap or two away from changing their careers.

Offense: Bow-Tyer (playlist)

Tari Eason is built like an athlete. He’s listed as 6’8″ with a 7’2″ wingspan, and between that and his aggressive defensive style, which we’ll cover, he’s subject to type-casting on offense. Yes, he can crash the glass and finish transition opportunities above-the-rim, but Eason has room to grow into a connective role on that end. Throughout his first two seasons, he showed considerable court-mapping and decision-making prowess despite a relative lack of possessing the ball.

This cut-and-kick creates a corner-three for Houston, and while he perhaps misses a real tough, high-value dump-off to Alperen Şengün, it showcases some skills Eason should tap into more:

Tari will make to the rim if he sees the back of his defender’s head, and he can find the open shooters in transition. This play stands out not because it’s anything ground-breaking, but because he identifies where the advantage will be early. The drive-and-kick itself becomes pretty simple:

There’s really no reason, then, for his career-assist-rate to be hovering below 8%. Eason doesn’t have to be late-career Andre Iguodala in year three, but he’s shown too much court-awareness to have none of his passing stats pop. Yes, he often stands in the corner in Houston’s half-court offense, but ending the closeouts he does attack with extra passes and even higher-value looks for teammates has to be a focus.

However, it bodes well that Eason is finishing strong at the rim to start 2024-25, perhaps invigorated by a successful rehab process. Cleaning the Glass is tracking him at 48-of-66, or 73% on shots at the rim this season, up from his previous career-mark of 56% on 415 attempts.

It’s early. But Eason looks to be a merely competent 3-point threat on low volume, shooting in the mid-30s without many attempts off the dribble or off movement (though it’s worth noting he is just 250 attempts into his career).

Eason has never had a problem getting to the paint, but he hasn’t always pressed the right button to get there. Occasionally he doesn’t leverage his physicality into an advantage, opting for a slow-step or euro type of finish that diminishes his athletic traits. Often times, he’s stunted by a lack of flexibility in his handle, forced to pick the ball up one dribble too soon.

For now, though, he’s solving the issue, and flashing signs of tying the bow on top of Houston’s offense. He can handle in transition, cut to the rim or get there off a closeout or offensive board, and for now, he’s finishing those possessions. Becoming a more consistent passer is the key, and that’ll open up opportunities to get him in the short-roll as a screener or ball-handler in some inverted actions.

Defense: Ball-Hawk (playlist)

Simple. He rebounds everything, and yeah, he may foul a lot, but Eason is currently in the 100th percentile for steal- and block-rate for his position in 2024-25, per Cleaning the Glass. Passing lanes, pick-pockets, swipe-downs, contests as the low-man, you name it, Tari does it.

There is a flip-side, in that he’s occasionally beat on his gambling, and he’s not always in the right positions when it comes to scramble-mode or communicating with his teammates. Last season, playing against the Indiana Pacers, Eason was occasionally tasked with guarding Buddy Hield. He did okay, but it showed that his skillset is more tailored to helping off a non-shooting threat rather than being responsible for the deadliest shooter on the floor. On this play, he survives poor screen-navigation at first, though that’s an admittedly bigger problem than biting on the ball-fake when helps on a drive:

(It’s tough to help off Buddy Hield.)

Houston hasn’t always had the rim-protection to insulate some of his gambling tendencies, though Şengün is looking sturdier in 2024-25 but Eason’s ball-hawking nature is too valuable to be constricted.

This end of the floor is a bit easier to predict for Tari Eason. Unless he’s playing in handcuffs, he’s going to rack up the deflections as a long-armed athlete with plus-anticipation skills. Molding those desirable skills into a team-context where he can more comfortably navigate switches and make funky rotations is an obvious key for him.

Playlist: https://crowdscout.net/p?p=01934941-a5b0-7990-9c53-069a08998d21&i=3329457)

Gradey Dick

Gradey Dick is here to shoot the rock.

Offense: Loose Dynamite (Playlist)

He’s 6’7″ with a high release point, and has shown stretches of being the shot-maker the Toronto Raptors envisioned when they took him out of University of Kansas in the 2023 NBA Draft. As with any shooter, Dick needs to improve on the margins: making the right choice when defenses run him off the 3-point line, not falling too in love with that mid-range pull-up, finishing at the rim, et cetera.

But Gradey has scored 25-plus points five times in his career, and they’ve all come in the early stages of the 2024-25 season. Opportunity has abounded with Scottie Barnes and others missing considerable time for Toronto, but think about the archetype here. Gradey didn’t just stand in the corner and wait to capitalize on advantages that weren’t created, he went out and got 20 shots.

Dick’s shown some malleability off that high release-point, and the anticipation/hand-eye to convert opportunies that he otherwise couldn’t, given a fairly uninspiring athletic profile. On this pair of buckets, he first push-dribbles through a dig, then drops a tough turnaround over Rudy Gobert before floating a moon-ball over him the next time down:

Is this Dick’s ideal shot-profile? No. Does it indicate that he get create real looks for himself outside the limited context of a less threatening stand-in-the-corner white guy? Absolutely.

Gradey’s always going to be a little reliant on organized offense to get his looks off; pin-downs with correct spacing, setting a ball-screen -> coming off a flare, etc. However, on a healthy Raptors team with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley most often toting the rock, Gradey’s gonna need to find other ways to get his shots off. His growing ability to find his spots bodes well.

Of course, making the right decisions when attacking closeouts is paramount, but look for Gradey to keep firing all sorts of 3-point looks. Hopefully, he can use his anticipation and hand-eye skills to find crevasses to get to the rim a tad more, though that floater will be a real weapon for years to come. Ideally, Gradey Dick is a loose stick of dynamite; handle him with improper care and watch your house burn down.

Defense: Chain Link (Playlist)

Gradey Dick isn’t going to become a lockdown defender on the ball, but he’s going to have to bleed a little less on the perimeter. His foot-speed and short-space explosiveness is just alright, so it’s tough when the NBA’s shiftiest guards reject screens on him and whatnot. Here, he deftly switches a screen and then chases Anthony Edwards, of all people, through another one, but Ant dusts him with a simple-jab:

Of course, Gradey Dick cannot give up baseline on this play, and that worry is a part of what sends him flying, in addition to, you know. That play is the result of an off-ball switch, and while the Toronto Raptors won’t ask Gradey Dick to guard all the opponent’s most threatening players, he’ll be put in some uncomfortable situations.

In the meantime, Gradey Dick has to continue communicating with his teammates and showing in the right spots, something he’s done a nice job of for a player early in his second season.

Vince Williams Jr.

Vince Williams Jr. missed the first month of the Memphis Grizzlies season recovering from a stress fracture in his tibia, then returned for three games before spraining his ankle, which will cause him to miss around another month of action. Tough times for one of the league’s funkiest third-year players.

Offense: Gap Filler (Playlist)

In the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the Memphis Grizzlies deployed Vince as a fairly typical wing who was just getting his feet wet with consistent rotational minutes. Then, as the injuries continued to mount and Vince’s skillset became a bit clearer, he blossomed into something of a point-forward, racking up high-assist totals throughout the spring. It’s easy to see why:

Vince struggles to truly separate/blow by defenders with a live-dribble, but if there is an advantage available to him, he will make any sort of pass to get it done. ‘Ambitious’ is the word that comes to mind.

Vince could use a few more live-dribble counters to get to his spots; right now, he’s almost exclusively able to create out of dribble-handoffs or in transition rather than straight pick-and-roll. However, he did shoot 39% from deep as a willing 3-point shooter in 2023-24, perhaps a bit over his head but more than enough to draw closeouts and give his best skills and opportunity to shine.

In the half-court, he’s either taking those looks (and will pull off the dribble if his defender goes far under the screen) or trying to get all the way to the rim. Because Vince is not the most reactive ball-handler, he has trouble navigating tight spaces. While that limits his ability to consistently lay the ball up, his approach is at least partly why Memphis felt so comfortable giving him more responsibility.

Vince will make sure Memphis achieves its desired shot-profile if the ball is in his hands. He will either pass to or shoot from the high-value areas of the court. Sure, he can cut and shoot off-the-ball sufficiently; he’ll make inspiring extra passes. But Vince flies with some decision-making on his shoulders; the short-term question is how he’s going to do this while playing next to Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and even the vaguely similar Marcus Smart.

Defense: Playmaker (Playlist)

I described Vince Williams Jr. as a funky third-year player not just as a term of admiration for his offensive play-style, but his defense too. Memphis tasked Vince with face-guarding their opponent’s best player for damn-near full games last season. From Kyrie Irving to Kevin Durant, Vince was guarding his man often with his back turned to the ball, almost like the football player he’s built like.

This encapsulates the VWJ experience on defense; he’s not always the most nimble at the point-of-attack, and he’s not racking up the deflections quite like Tari Eason, but he is a playmaker nonetheless. Vince is fantastic at contesting shots all over the court, but his verticality and ridiculous +7 wingspan really plays at the rim:

Despite his fundamentally sound skills there, Vince can be a bit of a risk-taker on the perimeter, and frequent gambles and pokes at the ball puncture holes in his point-of-attack defense. A tad too often, offensive players are able to create space by bumping him off course, surprising given his frame and physicality when sticking to guys off the ball.

Where should his skillset meet his role? Indeed, he is a playmaker on defense, with active hands, strong anticipation skills, and an ability to offer secondary rim-protection, but perhaps it is telling that Memphis stuck him on so many bona fide perimeter threats last season. Next to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, the Grizzlies may need him to buckle down, get through screens, and move his feet against smaller, shiftier players.

Nearly everything Vince does on a basketball court is interesting, but his role on Memphis’ defense is really something to look out for when he returns from injury.

This has merely been the first part of Finding a Role, 2025. There are a couple boys from Brooklyn I’ve yet to mention, but that will come at a later date.

Meanwhile, I will be re-visiting these three players frequently throughout this season, tracking progress in the aforementioned areas, as they look to establish themselves as upper-middle class NBA players who can make or break a contending front office. Can Gradey Dick’s ancillary offense push a championship-offense over the finish line? Will Tari Eason oversee and control playoff games on both ends of the court? Can Vince Williams Jr. toe the line between experimenting and producing at the highest level?

Those are all long-term questions, but they’ll be answered season-by-season, game-by-game, quarter-by-quarter, and Swish Theory’s Finding a Role series is here to track all of it.

The post Finding a Role: 2024-25 Introduction appeared first on Swish Theory.

The post Ep. 4: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Arthur Kaluma with @DraftPow appeared first on Swish Theory.

When a great player becomes great, there is often the narrative of inevitability tied into the fabric. While there may be some truth to that – no training context would have made me an NBA All-Star – it is worth examining some of the more surprising star turns.

This series aims to not just identify certain significant leaps of statistical production, but also to identify the newly created patterns of complex actions grown out of more rudimentary ones. As a self-deemed draft analyst hoping to improve the employment matching process of prospects-to-teams as a third-party observer, looking for those kernels of magic that could be nurtured to become foundations of elite play is the most I can strive for.

Enter: Pascal Siakam

I chose Pascal Siakam to kick off this series because of his skyrocketing from an energy big at New Mexico State to now primary creator in his seventh season, all traced through his time with the Toronto Raptors.

Particularly, Siakam, the former 27^th overall pick, has had an all-time great developmental track in scoring with the ball in his hands. I use isolation scoring as a convenient proxy for this, as it showcases our subjects against a variety of defenses coverages and help schemes, with the focal point around creating as easy of a shot as possible out of nothing.

The below infographic shows how stark the increases have been over the years, with his repertoire of moves used to score in isolation growing from a simple two moves as a rookie (his vaunted spin move, but also ‘accelerate then spin’), a mere four in his second season (adding straight line acceleration, a crossover and the ability to power through an opponent to the basket) before experimenting more and more.

His first big leap came as a complement to Kawhi Leonard during the Raptors’ title run, with 45 of his 162 iso points coming in the playoffs. The following year was his second big leap, taking over the helm as primary initiator for the Raptors and earning his first All-Star bid. After being held back by injury in 2019-20, in the 2020-21 season Siakam’s iso rate rose significantly, now at 5.4 possessions per game, 5^th most in the entire league. Despite some more bad injury luck in 2021-22, Siakam has not only maintained his iso rate but improved his efficiency dramatically, now scoring 1.06 points per isolation possessions, tied with Kevin Durant and better than Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And that doesn’t even include how he’s averaging more assists per game than those three others as well.

How did a former off-ball PF with zero isolation points in college become one of the best iso scorers in the NBA? I break it down with tape from each season in the below video:

Enter: Arthur Kaluma

We will not get further into this piece without the essential note that this is no way a player or even necessarily style comparison. The whole point of outlier development is it is unexpected and extraordinary, and the unusual circumstances of Siakam not playing any organized basketball until age 18 makes any comparison further strained. Rather, Arthur Kaluma’s game and, especially, his driving, have some of those building blocks we look for as a scout, the same ones seen by Siakam in his earlier days.

To give a full picture of Kaluma as a player, he is a jab-friendly, rangy wing with sparks of skill but lacking refinement in many critical parts of his game, at this point. Kaluma’s lack of polish shows up more in Creighton’s structured system (often stationed on the wing or above the break with instructions to move the ball quickly, cut frequently), but still we see signs of a promising driver with the ball in his hands.

Sure, Art relies heavily on a pump fake which gets more bites than it deserves, but his creativity in getting an initial step, and adequacy with his handle into quick crosses then long strides means he can often find an edge even against tight coverage. It’s the execution after that is inconsistent.

In his two games with Uganda in FIBA World Cup Qualifiers in July 2022, Kaluma had more reign to create freely, often thriving in doing so to the tune of 23 points per game on 64% true shooting. These numbers far outpace his Creighton sophomore year output of 13 points per game at only 57% true shooting, despite playing against similar and at time tougher competition (such as Sacramento Kings big Chimezie Metu with Nigeria).

What Can Siakam Teach Kaluma?

The first takeaway I have in watching 2022-23 Pascal Siakam is how he has turned the practical into the artistic. The process is not always pretty how he slingshots his wiry frame from space to space or extends through a defender, often times garish and literal, but he has become one of the best at throwing off defenders with his arrhythmic, unpredictable movements. Once a meme for his predilection for his spin move and spin move only, now at the culmination of Pascal’s options, dozens in hand, there is a joy in trying to guess what buttons Pascal will try next. Siakam reminds one less of a 2K character and more a fighting game character whose options are always reliable and can be chained for combos, each made familiar through endless trial, error and muscle memory.

Second, but related, is the importance of locating your advantage wherever you have it. Basketball involves both quick and decisive movements in any four-dimensional direction at a unique or consistent point in a dynamic and never identical context. As long as you, as a player, have even one trait that advantages you over a given opponent: leverage that to the end of time and the rest of the game coalesces around it.

For Siakam, that is length, balance, flexibility, touch and stride length, a very fun combination he has juiced more and more over time. For Kaluma, his advantage also resides in his length (and, potentially, his touch around the rim) but also in his Siakam-like experimentation of footwork across situations, enabled by his fluidity of movement and ability to alternate strides and pace.  From a technical standpoint, Kaluma is closer to Siakam in his second year with the Raptors than at New Mexico State, even if the landing isn’t always there. Kaluma loves his pump fakes and jabs, but also has used spins, stutter rips, euros, up and unders, in and outs, leaners, floaters, left hand acceleration, pro hops at oblique angles, reverse lay-ins off both one and two legs, cradle reverses, Shammgods!, between the legs into gathers, snatchbacks, elongated slower strides. Even with inconsistent production and efficiency, that kind of drive versatility is notable for a 6’7’’ 20-year-old.

Another essential mark in his favor is that Kaluma is a good interior defender and rebounder. One note before we go further is that Kaluma had a knee injury in February 2022 which caused him to miss two weeks. His production, and most notably block rate, went down to close the season. While he looked healthy with Uganda, he was forced to sit out the second round in late August due to a knee injury which lasted through Creighton’s training camp. Kaluma has not looked the same level of athlete in his second collegiate season, and I suspect this lingering injury is at least partially to blame.

While his numbers are still decent, his block rate has declined from a very good 2.1% from a wing to a more modest 1.3%, instead of grabbing 15.8% of defensive rebounds only secures 14.7%. For context, these place him 39^th for block rate and 35^th for defensive rebound rate among all 6’7’’ high major players compared to 22^nd and 19^th, respectively, as a freshman.

These degrees of difference matter, as being able to defend up to PFs is potentially crucial for his overall success. As seen in Pascal Siakam’s progression, being able to guard up early on in his career earned him the slower-footed matchups needed to develop his 1A move and branch out from there. Versatility, as it were, contributes in turn to getting one’s self in more advantageous situations.

Over the spectrum of his tape, Kaluma has shown a keen ability for tracking rebounds and timing in traffic. Most notably, when Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner went down with injury at the end of Kaluma’s freshman season, Arthur was more than capable filling in as smallball 5 for stretches. As the primary defender of Kansas center David McCormick, Kaluma held the 6’10’’, 265 pound big to his fewest points scored in the NCAA tournament at 7 points on 2-8 shooting while also outrebounding him by a 12-6 margin (and still scoring 24 points in his own right to nearly claim an upset on the eventual champion).

If Kaluma can regain some of his lost vertical pop and sturdiness in the post with a healthier knee, the number of routes for his utility as a young NBA player grow exponentially.

Outside of these traits, Kaluma has shown adequacies if not fluency in any given area. His passing can be exceptionally creative at times, particularly out of his on-ball reps: this ability to thrive in chaos at times is another green flag for Kaluma’s upside, something we see consistently with Siakam over the years. But the execution of basic tasks can leave much wanting, most frustrating with occasional lack of care for where to plant his feet: that has to be cleaned up if he wants to be the minimum level of NBA player. In a similar vein, his attention on perimeter defense can wane from time to time, more common for young players in general.

Now, the shot. While there is a school of thought that Kaluma has to have the shot fall to work as an NBA player that I disagree with, it continuing to progress would make his life much, much easier, as is the case for most draft-fringe wings. Arthur commented that the injury made him pay more attention to it, slowing him down, and we have seen some progress: 33% on over 8 threes per 100 possessions is not bad, especially compared to his 27% shooting on 7 threes per 100 as a freshman. His mid-range and free throw percentages have creeped up slightly from poor to decent, with the one exception being the item most impacted by a decline of athleticism: finishing at the rim, down to 55% from 69% as a freshman, a nonsensical decline, especially with an increase in share of rim makes assisted.

Nothing looks completely broken, though Kaluma’s long frame with a wingspan around 7 feet necessitates a slow coil of a release. Kaluma is naturally a bit flat-footed, which makes him more effective stepping into shots with momentum already heading forward (such as dribbling into an ATB pull-up or hopping into the catch rather than waiting flat footed) than off a corner three catch and shoot. His touch near the basket looks good, able to adjust mid-air to soften the angle (at least, frequently before the injury, less so after), though does get caught driving too shallow or deep, a tendency to meander around the hoop once in the lane.

You can tell whether a Kaluma shot is going in whether he angles his right foot down into the shot, toes landing first, or stays flat-footed. If he gets that small amount of moment forward, the entire foundation is that much more stable.

Again, the Siakam comparison is unfair, as it is incredibly rare to find someone who only made three threes in two years of college play who now can hit four in a game or score over 50 points in a game in a barrage from all locations. But both of the players have good coordination and a solid foundation to get into their shots as college players, as well as technically sound follow throughs. The issue comes more from the footwork for Kaluma, who also plays by feel more than technique.  

At the end of the day, Pascal Siakam was able to put together new concepts and apply them to on-court performance at a historically significant rate. While no one can be quite like him, everyone can learn from his development.

The post Outlier Development Series: What Pascal Siakam Can Teach Arthur Kaluma appeared first on Swish Theory.

Scottie Barnes is a powerhouse unto himself. The nicest thing I can say about Scottie is, despite all the makings of a connector with his skill set, is he is a pure hooper. Barnes has an improvisational flexibility that few have access to, a “hey, what if I?” when the opponent least expects it.

It’s not exclusively sunshine and rainbows (despite Scottie’s effusive personality), but Barnes’ ability to show new facets of his game the second he stepped on the court for the Toronto Raptors also displays his flexibility as a player to build around. After shooting a mere 5-21 on pull-up jumpers as a freshman at Florida State, Barnes shot consistently around 40% on copious pull-ups with the Raptors. What seems like too slow-loading of a shot to work off the dribble, Barnes is able to re-set his body quickly enough out of drives and long enough to shoot over defenders.

If you defend him tight, his handle, speed and deliberate strides can get him to the rim. Which gets us to our second point: Barnes is also incredibly strong, but more importantly loves to use it. Just look at him forcing the issue against Dean Wade in Toronto’s opener:

The Raptors love allowing their players, especially 6’7’’-6’9’’ ones with ballhandling chops, to fully explore their creation space. Barnes having the freedom to just try things works perfectly with his natural creativity. I love the below pass as clearly outside of a set design. But Barnes holds to find the advantage point, and has the flexibility of mind to capitalize on it:

It’s not the prettiest method of creating offense as a team, but allowing Barnes to roam with the ball to pick his delivery method generally gives his team an advantage. Perhaps his most unique ability is to make zip-line passes from 20+ feet away and nail his target in the hands, often slinging with one arm at unexpected moments. Again these are essential tools to create openings for an often-stagnant offense. Few can imitate both the speed and accuracy on skip pass reads like this, with innumerable examples:

Barnes is often referred to as a defense-first player, but I think it’s quite the opposite. Barnes’ best asset on defense is how he loves to be in the muck and physical, as well as always happy to take on a challenging assignment. But he has major issues with positioning, and despite the “can guard 1-5” label doesn’t have the footspeed to hang with real guards. It’s common for a rookie to feel lost on defense, but the technique lacks in spots as well, as he can chase after non-threatening offensive players or take poor angles when defending the pick and roll handler. Some additional attention to detail will be needed for Barnes to live up to his billing as a true wing stopper, and as we’ve established, he seems to be cut out for the challenge.

Most importantly, however, Scottie wants to be that guy. His playful intensity on the court means challenging himself throughout a game, as this breaking through consecutive off-ball screens without being slowed for a single frame was staggering to witness. Very few players his size are willing to throw themselves through a screen like that, and Scottie did it in game one of the regular season while chasing after the not-so-threatening Cedi Osman.

Not even within sets, Scottie loves setting an off-ball screen at any random moment if he thinks it will give his team an opening. He loves the game and has all kinds of tools to figure out how to cover up his weaknesses.

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