We are in the middle of the greatest era of parity in NBA history. With the Oklahoma City Thunder crowned champions, there have been seven different Finals winners in seven years, a new record; only once have we had five consecutive new winners. The days of the superteam and big market dominance are fading as chaos rules the contender circles. Projecting who is up next feels extremely difficult.

Even after a surprise Eastern Conference Finals run, the Pacers were not expected to come within one game of a championship. And they’re not the only surprise story in recent memory. The fifth-seeded Mavericks made it through the West last year. Everyone remembers the eighth-seeded Heat making it the year before, the third-seeded Warriors the year before that, the third-seeded Bucks the year before that, and the fifth-seeded Heat the year before that.

Granted, the line of delineation is strong. Four teams seeded fourth or lower have made the finals in the past six years, and all four lost. But we came so close to the exception this year. The point is that you can’t predict the future as you used to. Penciling in the Warriors and Cavaliers is no more. A surprise Conference Finals or Finals team is waiting out there, unknown to all.

I’m here to make the case that the Atlanta Hawks are the next surprise team.

The Aerial View

Okay, breathe. If you didn’t close the tab, you’re probably still laughing at me. I get it. The Atlanta Hawks? Contenders? In the National Basketball Association? It sounds ludicrous.

How soon we forget that these Hawks came within two wins of making the Finals just four years ago, when Trae Young scored 48 points on the road in Milwaukee to steal home court advantage in Game 1 of the ECF. I don’t blame you for writing that off as a blip: assuming Clint Capela walks in free agency, only two Hawks from that team remain: Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu.

The slate has been cleaned for a new iteration of that squad. The premise back then was simple: Trae’s ability to shoulder a colossal offensive load makes life easier for all the role players, allowing them to focus on defending hard and hitting shots. That premise hasn’t changed. But it comes with a new twist.

Bayou Bailout

Before getting into the construction of this team, it’s essential to acknowledge how we’ve gotten here in the last year. At this time last year, Atlanta was coming off a 36-win season. It was the third straight year their winning percentage had declined since that ECF appearance. Dejounte Murray hadn’t made the desired impact next to Trae Young one year into a four-year, $114 million extension. Things looked dire.

Then the New Orleans Pelicans stepped in.

Dejounte Murray was shipped to the Bayou in a package that included Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, EJ Liddell, and two first-round picks. The first pick was a 2025 Lakers choice that ended up 22nd overall, the second least favorable of New Orleans and Milwaukee in 2027. The last three players are all off the roster, but Dyson Daniels is going nowhere.

He finished second in DPOY voting in his first year with the Hawks. His breakout changed Atlanta’s fortunes significantly (if only someone had seen it coming!) That alone would make the Murray trade worth it. The way Atlanta used the picks afterwards only makes it look worse for New Orleans.

At the past trade deadline, Atlanta traded Bogdan Bogdanović for Terance Mann, Bones Hyland, and three second-round picks. That left them with Mann starting his three-year, $47 million veteran extension, an overpay for a low-impact wing. Packaging Mann and Georges Niang with that 22nd pick from New Orleans landed them Kristaps Porzingis earlier this week. Now they’ve gotten two impact starters for Murray, and still have a pick in 2027 to play with.

And, it may not be the worst trade for New Orleans between the two. During the 2025 NBA Draft’s first round, the Pelicans sent a 2026 unprotected pick and the 23rd pick to the Hawks for the 13th pick. Atlanta ended up taking Georgia forward Asa Newell at 23, who they were rumored to be eyeing at 13. And now they have a pick almost sure to be a lottery choice in next year’s loaded class at the top. The Hawks still came away with a useful rotation player and now own one of the most valuable assets any playoff-hopeful team owns.

To sum it up: by trading with the Pelicans, Atlanta turned Murray and the 13th pick into Dyson Daniels, Kristaps Porzingis, Asa Newell, a 2026 unprotected New Orleans first, a 2027 first from New Orleans or Milwaukee, and a second-round pick from the Celtics. That’s the rock upon which this Hawks team is built. The fallout from these two trades will echo for these franchises throughout the next decade or more.

Offseason Additions

Kristaps Porzingis was Atlanta’s big domino. I’d be surprised if they got a bigger name or impact player. That’s no knock on Kristaps; his +3.6 EPM last season was a 96th-percentile mark. He’s been in the 96th or 97th percentile four years running. But their powder remains dry, with many avenues for addition. But more on why he is a great fit later.

Atlanta had three primary weapons at their disposal this offseason: a $25M trade exception (from the Dejounte deal – gift that keeps giving), a $13M trade exception (Bogdan deal), and the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for $14M. They used those financial weapons to make some significant additions.

First and foremost, Atlanta used the Murray exception to pick up Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I’m not saying the Hawks read my writing, but that’s two straight offseasons where they’ve picked up one of my Finding a Role breakout candidates. Hawks, I’m on to you. The terms of the sign-and-trade are window dressing to fit him into the exception. They sent a far-off second-round pick. Well worth it to add a high-level rotation player without counting against the cap.

NAW fits so perfectly into the vision Atlanta is outlining. He is a confident shooter who is lights out from the corners and is passable from above the break. While turnover-prone, he is an aggressive passer who can make reads above expectation for an off-ball wing. I love his floor sense and the way he moves around to find spots offensively. And that’s not where his value comes from.

2025 was something of a down year statistically, but he is an elite perimeter defender. NAW had 94th and 98th defensive EPM marks in 2023 and 2024. He’s one of the best screen navigators in the league and gives Atlanta another exceptional perimeter defense option alongside Dyson Daniels. Atlanta hit it out of the park getting Alexander-Walker, and they weren’t done there.

Since this deal folds into a trade exception, they retained the full mid-level exception. That gave them room to add another rotation player, and they did so in getting Luke Kennard. Part of my offseason wishlist was getting a genuine shooter; few are better than Kennard. Few players are better at high-volume above-the-break three-point shooting than Kennard. He’s not much of a defender, but Atlanta has the infrastructure to insulate him, even as a bench piece.

It’s wise to get him on a one-year deal. Trade exceptions are significant, but the bill comes due the following year. Trae Young has a player option after the upcoming season, and Dyson Daniels also needs to get paid. Between Porzingis and Kennard, that’s over $40 million in expiring money. If this team doesn’t meet expectations, they have avenues to retool with or without Trae Young. But I am entirely sold on this team, and let’s get into why.

Pulling Elements from Contenders

Atlanta is pulling pieces together, but what is the vision? When I see the NBA Finals teams, I see two formulas the Hawks are trying to emulate. Let’s get into how they’re trying to imitate the Thunder first.

We all know the Thunder won a championship with elite defense. But the elements building that defense are interesting. They have tons of depth, going from an incredible defensive starting lineup to bench pieces like Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso. These players have size, enormous wingspans, and are super athletic. Most importantly, they steal the ball like crazy. OKC led the league in steals per game, fueling their transition offense where those athletes could get out and run.

You know who was second in steals? The Atlanta Hawks. Almost a third of those came from Dyson Daniels alone, who had the best pilfering season of the 21st century. This isn’t some gimmick one-off. Look at their new projected starting lineup next to Trae Young: 6’8″ Dyson Daniels, 6’8″ Zaccharie Risacher, 6’9″ Jalen Johnson, and 7’2″ Kristaps Porzingis. That unit averaged a combined 7.2 steals per game last season. Together, and healthy, I’d expect that number to go up.

The big element is how this benefits Trae. He’s a better defender than people give him credit for, but still not great. If your weak link can get steals on the ball or work in passing lanes off the ball while the other four cover up for him, that’s an additive value. It’s the same thing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does for the Thunder. Granted, he’s about half a foot taller, but that’s the tradeoff for what Trae brings offensively. And that’s where the Pacers’ formula comes into play.

If you want to find the next team to win with pace, look at the Hawks. They were third in pace this past season. Trae Young’s presence will always boost your speed and playmaking; Atlanta also finished second in total assists per game. But it’s not about having one high-level ball mover; it’s about others that keep that flow in motion. After their offseason moves, Atlanta can have as many as nine players who averaged multiple assists per game.

Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are good secondary ball movers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard both find the right swing passes. Kristaps Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu have above-average feel for the center spot. The new additions can multiply this team’s collective court feel to create a Pacers-esque environment where everyone can pass in a pinch. Coach Quin Snyder should push this team to keep the ball moving after Trae or Jalen create advantages.

The secret to the Pacers was ball movement without carelessness. Indiana as a team finished third in assists per game with the third-lowest turnover rate. The Thunder were the same; though they didn’t share the ball movement prowess of the Pacers, they had the ball stolen from them less than any NBA team.

This leads to the problems the Hawks have to solve to attempt to emulate these contenders. They coughed the ball up a LOT last year. Trae Young is a very risky passer, and while it often pays off, it leads to a lot of transition going the other way. Atlanta needs to build an environment of smarter ball handlers so they can tip the transition scales in their favor. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, steals are only increasing in their value. If Atlanta can keep a top-five steal rate while getting an average turnover rate, they’ll have a huge advantage.

Atlanta checked every box on the wishlist. Kristaps gives them elite center size, will stretch the floor in high PNR, and can swing the ball. Nickeil Alexander-Walker gives them multiple elite perimeter defenders, increasing their depth and lineup optionality. Kennard gives them a lights-out shooter. And they did all this while staying under the tax and adding future assets. It’s an absurd coup of an offseason to get significantly better in the short AND long term.

Draft Additions

Luckily for me, we have a Hawks and draft expert on hand at the Swish Theory. Why talk about things I’m not as qualified to discuss as our own Ahmed Jama? So, here are Ahmed’s thoughts on the Asa Newell addition.

My favorite aspect of the Asa Newell pick (besides the additional draft capital the team acquired in the process) is that the team already has proof of concept with the role Asa projects to play. Newell is a relentless rebounder who finishes extremely well at the rim, projects to be a credible lob threat, and should be able to guard every frontcourt position.

For Hawks fans, this sales pitch should sound familiar and reminiscent of a recently departed Hawk, John Collins. Although the tail end of Collins’ tenure may have left a bitter taste in the mouth of fans who’d expected a more linear development in Collins’ finishing and decision making, Collins undeniably outperformed his draft position. And if Asa Newell could contribute close to Collins’ level during his Hawks tenure, this would be an undeniable win for the team.

However, a few roadblocks are standing in the way of Newell achieving the level of success John Collins was able to reach during his time with the Hawks. First, we must begin with what defined Collins’ tenure with the Hawks: rim-running. Even though Newell finished 19th in the country in total dunks (3rd amongst freshmen), he was far from an effective rim-runner this past season. Newell finished the season scoring 0.931 PPP (points per possession) on rolls to the basket, and was in the 23rd percentile in efficiency in the ‘P&R Roll-Man’ playtype.

When considering these numbers, discussing the context of the team Newell played in the past season is essential. Georgia had some of the worst guard play of any high-major team. Their guards were both ineffective as scorers and inconsistent as facilitators. This personnel, paired with a highly congested and stagnant offense this past season, erased clean rolls to the basket for Newell and drastically affected the degree of difficulty on these plays. But despite Newell’s inefficiency as a roller, he still managed to finish over 70% at the rim, which is truly impressive for someone who wasn’t a full-time big. Newell was so effective as a finisher because of his persistence on the glass.

Newell’s offensive rebounding prowess could also be a boon to the Hawks’ defense. While the Hawks finished as the 18th-ranked defense by Defensive Rating, they were tied for 21st in fastbreak points allowed. Opponents, not fearing the Hawks’ mediocre offensive rebounding unit, predicated on an undersized frontcourt, could leak out and rack up easy baskets in transition. Newell’s presence on the offensive glass should limit these easy fastbreak opportunities for teams and establish a more physical identity in the frontcourt.

Overall, while Asa Newell may not be the flashiest player for the Hawks’ long-term future, I believe he can be an integral member of a frontcourt rotation, becoming increasingly capable of augmenting Trae Young’s strengths and compensating for his deficiencies. Although the Hawks are still lacking in size compared to most NBA frontcourts, Newell’s range defensively and ability to play in the open court add to the identity of a team that finished 3rd in pace this past season, even without Jalen Johnson and his grab-and-go talents for a large swath of the season. Asa Newell is the rare draft pick who fits into both the best player available AND best fit categories for the Hawks. And putting my draft analyst cap aside for a moment, it is truly refreshing to see the front office make such a shrewd move.

Internal Growth

One crucial element to remember here: the youth of this team. Kristaps Porzingis is now the oldest Hawk at 30 years old. Kennard is 29, NAW and Trae are 27, Okongwu is 25, Jalen is 24, Dyson is 22, and Risacher is 20. The vast majority of this rotation is on the upswing.

Sure, Porzingis is getting bogged down by injury. Trae has remained at a fringe All-NBA level for years. Kennard is what he is. But the rest of this team has more meat on the bone. I am bullish on more offensive growth for Dyson Daniels and NAW. Jalen Johnson should compete for an All-Star spot as his explosive development continues. Risacher now has a year under his belt and can get more bench minutes. Onyeka Okongwu continues to get better as he shifts to a backup role.

If these players stopped developing, this would still be a strong team. And I’d be willing to bet that more of them will progress than regress. Development isn’t linear, but they have a great core that’s young and flexible.

I love how the Hawks have positioned themselves to make a deep run in the upcoming season and, if they’re lucky, for years to come. Get on the hype train now before it leaves the station.

The post Atlanta Hawks: The NBA’s Next Sneaky Contender appeared first on Swish Theory.

Jalen Johnson was Atlanta’s second-leading scorer with 18 points, two of which came on this transition dunk around Embiid:

So yeah. Ordinary stuff.

Now in his third season, this is what Jalen Johnson does. Thrust into Atlanta’s starting lineup not by way of injury or space-clearing trade, but simply because he’s played too well to keep off the court, Johnson is averaging 15 points and eight rebounds in 30 minutes a night. And as you might expect from an über-athletic, 21-year-old wing, many of his buckets come in transition.

Readers, you think Trae Young likes playing with this guy?

Whether as a ball-handler or lane-filler, Johnson is a threat to finish any transition opportunity with a bang. His insertion into the starting lineup gives both Young and Dejounte Murray a partner in crime when pushing the pace, and Atlanta’s two lead guards have grown more and more daring when feeding Johnson on the run. Why wouldn’t they?

The ex-Blue Devil is a tremendously malleable athlete. He doesn’t mind jumping off one foot or two, trying to go through contact or around it, with a runway or off a standstill, or finishing with the off-hand. Johnson simply takes the most efficient route to the rim, often above it. He is a career 76% finisher inside the restricted area, per Basketball Reference, and while that career has only spanned ~1500 minutes, a number that will double by the end of this season, did you see what I just said? Seventy-six percent!

Take a transition dunk like this:

Murray leads most other players too far with that pass, but not Johnson. He lunges from the 3-point arc to the first hash mark in one step, then dunks the ball on his next. The freakiest part may be how easy he makes it looks.

Here’s an entirely different type of finish, but one that’s just as impressive. It comes in a half-court setting, where Johnson picks up an o-board, then hop-steps into a floater. In the process, the young wing pinballs off two defenders, first on the hop-step, then on the finish. Yet, neither bit of contact throws him off balance, as he finishes what should probably be an and-one:

Much of this, though, is not new. Sure, Johnson is more comfortable and stronger on the court in his third season, but being a deadly finisher at the rim has always been the foundation of his appeal, particularly as a teammate of Trae Young. This season, however, he’s filling in the rest of his game with some predictable skills, and others that may catch the uninitiated by surprise.

For the former, I’m talking about long-range shooting, of course. It’s early, but Johnson is hitting 44.1% of his threes, up from just 29% last season. I’d bet the farm he won’t finish the year in the 40s, but he does look much more comfortable as a shooter, willing to let them go even off slight movement:

Playing next to two high-usage guards in Young and Murray leaves little choice for Johnson; he’s gotta take (and make enough of) his open looks. And while there’s still some hiccups for the 2021 first-round pick in this regard — his courage is often determined by the result of his previous attempt — it’s so much easier to give Johnson 36 minutes of tick when he’s letting it fly like this.

Now that defenders have to respect the Hawks’ youngest starter, it gives Johnson the opportunity to attack closeouts and get to his bread-and-butter, served at the rim. A tale as old as time:

However the quality that’s always surprised, the quality that stirred grinning curiosity among draft prognosticators is Johnson’s passing. As a high-flying prospect, he was known for, well, what you’d expect. Dunk after dunk, with flashes of advanced shot-making and footwork inside the arc. But those who watched closely, even prior to his days at Duke, were delighted by dimes like this:

That’s continued during his burst onto the scene this season. Johnson’s passing follows the same fun formula as his finishing. Need to throw a routine bounce-pass? Fine. Need to cradle the ball off a live dribble and throw a laser across the baseline with the left? Sure:

Johnson’s passing ability has translated into the half-court as well, and we’re seeing glimpses of a connective passing style that is eminently desirable next to more ball-dominant players:

Johnson has the physical ability to make any pass, with the court-vision and understanding of defensive weak points to see them too. I’m especially intrigued by his capabilities as a roll-man. We know he can catch lobs when diving to the basket, and if he’s on the short-roll, the help defense can’t be late to the party unless they want to end up on a poster. That’ll lead to 2-on-1 situations like the below, which Johnson’s already shown a penchant for exploiting:

Whether on the perimeter or as a roll-man, patterns will become clear. There are only so many ways for a defense to guard a high pick-and-roll, and only so many ways for Johnson to see it from the corners. At just two assists a game, his passing output hasn’t matched the flashes, but the 21-year-old brings an undeniable connective juice to Atlanta’s starting lineup.

We’ll close with Johnson’s vastly improved defense, probably the reason — along with a greater willingness to shoot the three-ball — Hawks Head Coach Quin Snyder felt comfortable yanking Saddiq Bey from the starting lineup for him. The 6’8″ wing has shown two high-level skills on that end: sliding his feet, and tracking the ball. Here he is bodying up to Tyrese Maxey, completely unmoved by a series of head-fakes before swatting the ball out-of-bounds:

Johnson will still swipe at the ball on the perimeter, a habit that he’s wisely cut down on this season, but it’s almost always of his own accord. In other words, all the head-fakes and hesitations in the world won’t convince him to reach. He picks and chooses his spots, so fake-heavy isolations like Maxey’s above rarely shift Johnson. He’s guarding positions 1-4, and not in the half-ass way where the 1s aren’t shifty and the 4s are like, Dorian Finney-Smith (who’s playing great ball by the way)!

You see the agility above, and here’s the strength. Johnson bodies up to Julius Randle, is unmoved by a physical post-up, then forces the lefty into a tough, well-contested fadeaway:

Johnson’s three blocks against the Sixers brought his block-rate to 1.9%, an elite mark for non-centers that’s also in line with his career averages. Throw in strong rebounding at his position, and there’s no glaring weakness in Johnson’s D, certainly not one that would keep him off the floor.

Subpar screen navigation may hamper his ability to stick to the Tyrese Maxeys of the world for extended stretches of game-time, but that’s a small blip on the progress of his Year Three. When the Hawks faced the Oklahoma City Thunder, Quin Snyder entrusted Johnson with the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander matchup when Dejounte Murray sat. Six-eight 21-year-olds that can reasonably slide their feet with SGA on one night, then provide rebounding and shot-blocking value on another don’t come in bunches.

Johnson is not a perfect defender at this juncture — a pedestrian 2.2 deflections / 36 minutes is unbecoming of a player with his physical tools — he’s a bit static as a help defender on the perimeter. Like many young players, Johnson often seems consciously focused on tracking the ball and his man, determined not to lose either, rather than playing instinctual, athletic defense. Ball-handlers should be terrified of a Jalen Johnson stunt or dig, not breezing past whatever these are:

This is not a fatal flaw, of course, and certainly something that should improve. Johnson also has to curtail his turnovers on the offensive end, currently at two a game., rarely the result of wayward passes but often indecision on the perimeter (e.g. traveling on the catch, getting ripped when over-dribbling.) These current worries don’t detract from Johnson’s potential; hell, they aren’t even diminishing his current production.

Jalen Johnson is far from a finished product. He’s prone to getting stuck on a screen and coughing up the rock. But at 6’8″, he runs the floor like a deer, and can contort his body into any position needed to dunk the ball, fire a pass, stick to his man, or block a shot. He’s even shooting the three this season.

Still just 21 years old, Johnson’s ceiling is far from defined, and it’s easy to get starry-eyed trying to find it. But we shouldn’t ignore what the third-year man is doing right now. In a ten-point loss against Philly, Johnson was a +3 while scoring 18 points, grabbing ten boards, blocking three shots, and dishing two assists. He didn’t turn the ball over either.

A dozen games into the season, that’s now par for the course for Johnson, and it’s why Quin Snyder had no choice but to insert him into the starting lineup as one of Atlanta’s clear-cut five best players. On some nights, he’s better than that.

Jalen Johnson is finding a role for the Atlanta Hawks, and it’s easy to see why.

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