For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

When Peter Gabriel left Genesis in 1975, confusion abounded. A highly successful band’s frontman striking out on his own was a common enough occurrence, but the timing was odd. Ten years later, Gabriel had four No. 1 albums and ended his career as one of British history’s most prolific and successful solo artists.

Okay, I suppose Tre Mann isn’t a 1:1 comparison. He was by no means the frontman of the Oklahoma City Thunder, nor do I project him to have the success of Peter Gabriel. I can’t even call him Phil Collins in good conscience. I guess this makes him Morrissey to the Thunder’s Smiths, but (hopefully) minus the inexplicable racism? This is going off the rails.

Anyways, leaving the Thunder shone a new light on Tre Mann’s ability. The talent was there, but opportunities faded quickly as Oklahoma City acquired more capable role players and kept piling up draft picks. The rookie emergence of Cason Wallace seemed to be the last straw. The Genesis 1975 tour appearance in Cleveland, if you will.

Now Mann finds himself in Charlotte, the polar opposite in regards to team expectations and opportunities to play. After his inclusion in the Gordon Hayward/Davis Bertans deal, Mann arrived in Charlotte to find a 10-41 team that had lost LaMelo Ball for the season. After being a DNP-CD for ~60% of his games in OKC, he was suddenly a starting point guard through the rest of the year. Opportunity presented itself, and Mann seized it.

I want to explore how Mann showed serious offensive juice over the final stretch of the year. Without further ado (read: ham-fisted Britpop references), let’s dig in. Starting with the defense; might as well rip the Band-Aid off.

On-Ball Production

Man. Look.

I had to think long and hard about how I wanted to frame this. It was a godawful team with nothing to play for. The coach was doing multiple press conferences a week that sounded like a cry for help. At times it was tempting to wave my hand and say “Hey, this is terrible, but is it Tre’s fault?”. Like most things, the answer fell somewhere in a gray area.

There are the schematic points to start. Shoutout to X’s and O’s god/unrepentant Seahawks fan Joe Hulbert for sharing his insight on Steve Clifford’s defensive principles, and a video of Clifford himself explaining these tactics. In short, Clifford wants to take away the valuable looks (threes, layups/dunks, free throws) and force players into the midrange. It involves point-of-attack defenders overplaying screen-based actions to force ballhandlers off the 3-point line and into the helpers. Here’s an easy example:

You can see the way Mann is shading Darius Garland on this drive. He’s giving him the angle for his strong hand and discouraging Garland from using a potential Jarrett Allen screen. The goal is to force Garland into an isolation possession with Miles Bridges stepping up to deter the drive and Vasilije Micic sinking to the dunker spot in Bridges’ place. Ideally, this forces two outcomes: a skip to the far corner and Isaac Okoro taking a three, or a midrange attempt.

Unfortunately, Miles Bridges is picking daisies in front of the drive (as he is wont to do) and allows an easy floater for DG. Hardline defensive principles are fine if you have execution. This team had little interest in execution. You can see a lot of possessions where Mann did his job on the intentional overplays and was let down by his helpers.

There are nits to pick with how drastic his angles are at times, often eliminating the opportunity to get himself back in the play. Regardless, his job is to buy into the scheme. When the scheme isn’t working you need to look critically at who is letting the team down. Clifford, yes. The rotational defenders, yes. Mann, not so much.

Referring back to the gray area, there were possessions where the blame almost squarely fell on Mann and not the scheme/surrounding personnel. Getting caught flat-footed, ill-timed unders on screens, failing to recognize switch opportunities, so on and so forth.

Yet there are moments of good. I was surprised to see Mann showing anticipation in blend with his athleticism and size by skinnying over screens at a decent enough pace. If encouraged to do actual screen navigation instead of comically overplaying screens to force a direction, he could do some things.

Mann has flashed some moments of quick hands to force steals. Despite an even wingspan (6’4″) relative to his height, his wide base and quickness make him a solid enough threat to pilfer a hung dribble.

Most importantly in my eyes are the possessions where he shows the right instincts and commitment to deny the easy looks. This is the NBA; most point-of-attack defenders have physical tools and look good when making the right gambles. That doesn’t impress me. Making a series of correct decisions regarding switches, sticking on drives to force tough shots, and contesting perimeter shots after denying drives stand out the most. Mann has flashed all of those things.

These flashes of effort, decision-making and consistency are especially important when you look at the other side of his defense.

Off-Ball “Defending”

There’s no scheme issues to pick on here. When it came to Mann’s on-ball defense, letdowns from his help defenders caused a lot of problems. Mann was often the one causing the problems when not directly guarding the handler.

Overhelping on the glass and allowing open threes. Uninspired and slow closeouts. Wandering off the ball when opponents are driving. Lackadaisical nail help. There’s a lot of rough stuff in here, and I left plenty on the cutting room before.

This isn’t a unique problem. White dudes in mesh trucker hats have problematic political takes, Chicago Bears quarterbacks refuse to throw for 4,000 yards, and young offense-first guards are more engaged on the ball than off it. Life is full of constants.

What frustrates me with Mann more than most is that the flashes of awareness and engagement are there. He can make structured rotations, digging off the perimeter at the right times and especially rotating over to bigs to deny post entry passes.

Even more impressive, Mann makes the unstructured reads. He’s damn good at anticipating the next pass and beating his man to the ball. Surprisingly for a young guard, the good gambles outweighed the bad.

The numbers bear out his growing defensive impact. He posts strong defensive rebounding numbers (90th percentile amongst combo guards per Cleaning the Glass), and though it belies his overcommitment to impact the glass while trading the aforementioned open second-chance threes, it’s still a positive. Mann also posted a 91st percentile steal rate while keeping the fouls to an 80th percentile mark. Catch-alls back up his growth: Mann’s defensive EPM according to dunksandthrees.com has risen from -4.0 to -3.5 to -1.4 this past season, a perfectly acceptable 53rd percentile mark.

Reading between the numbers is important here. Mann can continue to be a positive rebounder if he cleans up his decision making on when to crash and when to stick to his man. Continuing to create steals based on hustle and a healthy mix of gambling on-off the ball will be huge, and works in tandem with his transition prowess (more on that later). A high steal rate and low foul rate indicates cautious yet deadly hands, but he could be a bit more physical and toe the line of blocking fouls a bit more often.

On the whole with Mann’s defense, I am cautiously optimistic. Head coach Charles Lee has championship experience as a top assistant with the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Read: the man has coached Jrue Holiday a lot. He’s seen firsthand for years what makes great point-of-attack defense and impactful guard rotations. When LaMelo Ball plays, Mann gets to work on his defensive craft against bench guards instead of starters, and will see plenty of minutes alongside defensive stud Josh Green. If he can continue his personal development while the context improves from “everything is on fire” to “this feels manageable”, don’t be surprised to see him climb towards above-average defender territory.

We’ve had our appetizer. Now it’s time for the main course.

On-Ball Creation

Let’s start with the simple and move towards the complex, because there are many layers to Mann’s on-ball talent. Drives are a good place to start.

If you put a guard who is anything less than a top-tier point of attack guy on Tre, he’s going to coast right past them. His blend of balance, speed, and agility is difficult for most to deal with.

Maybe you think hey, let’s try some wings out on him. Strength and length should deter him, right? Right??

Couldn’t be more wrong! Tre has unlimited confidence in his ability to create good looks on the drive, so much so that he’ll go at the head of anyone at any time. Like this guy:

Mann finished with a solid 64% mark at the rim while showcasing some decent off-hand finishing, largely driven by his ability to get clean wins against all comers in isolation. This talent is accentuated by his set of midrange counters, which is prolific to say the least.

Simply put, a plethora of midrange counters opens up a lot of ways for Mann to create an effective shot on the drive. It gives him ways to counter if the rim is being denied by his defender or by the rotations. Selling out to stop his drives allows more space for him in the intermediate areas, which helps the rim pressure, and on and on in an endlessly frustrating cycle for defenders.

Mann isn’t limited to self-creation on his drives either. He showed a lot of promise as a drive-and-spray guy, collapsing the defense and kicking out to his shooters for open looks or closeout attack chances.

For a 23 year old, Mann is surprisingly timely at kicking behind help. Throw a tag on his roller and the ball is going behind the tagger. Show some nail help on his drives and guess what, the ball is suddenly in the shooting pocket of the help point.

When his teammates felt inclined to cut and move off of his drives, Mann was pretty adept at finding them with good lob touch and some crafty layoff passes.

It wasn’t all pretty on the drive. Mann at times is prone to wild finish attempts, especially when favoring his right hand in situations that call for a lefty finish. There were some missed opportunities for a pass that turned into bad finishes as well. Yet on the whole, his ability to create for himself and others without needing a screen is valuable.

You may be wondering at this point if Tre has any juice on the perimeter if the drives/midrange counters are cut off. Boy, does he.

His flexibility and balance stand out the most on his pull-up threes. He can bend so low on his crossovers without losing momentum and balance that it’s impossible to close the gaps he generates on step-backs.

So, we have the makings of a three-level isolation scorer here. That’s fantastic, but this is the modern NBA. What you do in screen-based actions defines your game, not 1v1 cooking. We’ll build up his PNR game in a similar fashion, working inside-out like any good offense does.

Pick-and-Roll Creation

As he does in isolation, Mann loves mashing the accelerate button on his drives, creating plenty of good rim chances.

That’s ho-hum at this point. Oh look, I can go fast. Good for you. The real question in ball screen reps is how do you manipulate defenders with that speed, more specifically changing pace on the drive. Mann showed a lot of encouraging tape in that respect.

Of course, the pull up twos were a steady presence, as they were with his isolation game.

Then we have the pull-up three point game. When facing an athletic driver like Mann, going under on the screen is often the right move. He responds by raining threes with good efficiency and deep range. Even if you go over the screen, he’s adept at finding windows to get his shot off.

In traditional pick-and-roll without a switch or Mann rejecting the screen, the playmaking popped in a lot of ways. The live dribble passing was especially impressive. Keep an eye on how Mann mixes his speeds and strategically slows down at the right times, especially when trying to let his roller find the best window for lobs and layoff passes.

Mann thrived against mixed coverages, especially as a playmaker. If they threw two at the ball, he was particularly adept at opening windows for his rollers or finding the help points and kicking to open shooters.

A key aspect of Mann’s playmaking that impresses is the blend between improvisational reads and “academy brain” type reads. A lot of passing decisions are taught in a binary manner. If they send a double, hit the roller or skip to the far corner. Mann does this often, yet sometimes he will continue the dribble to draw further help and find other reads. Often he extends to make the help withdraw then finds his roller again with nifty wrap passes. Making reads in and out of structure is the key to any high-level playmaker.

Things get a bit iffier when Mann is faced with a switch. Sometimes he would fail to take advantage of that switch by taking pull-up shots or passing out of the mismatch entirely.

But there were plenty of good attacks here. More often than not, Mann saw red on his switches and went right downhill with malice. A few of the dunk attempts looked hilarious yet spoke to his confidence in the burst and jumping explosion.

It veered into borderline concerning territory with how Mann relentlessly went for the cup when getting switches. He hardly passed out of these looks, despite the advantages that a switch creates by putting the defense in uncomfortable rotations. The switched defender is usually a key rim protecting component, making the defense susceptible to second-side drives, yet Mann often failed to take advantage. But we had some glimpses of this advantage creation.

The first read impressed me the most when noting how Mann strung his decision making together. Getting the switch on Kleber, who is acting as the small-ball 5, is the first step. He drives Kleber middle to force nail help by PJ Washington off of Miles Bridges, a strong driver. After Mann makes the pass, he spaces himself back out to the perimeter, forcing Kleber to shade towards him and away from the Bridges drive. This allows his teammate to take his time with the advantage Mann created for him and find a good shot. It seems minute, but chaining together multiple good decisions to benefit your teammate is important for a young lead guard.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: a young guard really likes rejecting screens. Even when there’s little advantage to be created by doing so, Mann loves to reject a screen and go hero ball against his man. Yet Mann often found ways to create good shots without creating an advantage by rejecting.

To be sure, there were plays where Mann rejected, created no advantage from doing so, and compounded the mistake with bad shots. He can’t touch shot/contort his way out of everything.

To my surprise, the majority of Mann’s screen rejects were advantageous. He waited for his defender to commit to the screen then quickly broke downhill, creating paint touches and buckets for himself or his teammates. Some of these improvisational reads were exceptional.

Oddly enough, his playmaking after rejects was the polar opposite of his switch playmaking. Instead of going full bore to the rim every time, he was looking to make plays first after creating legitimate advantages. I hope to see that blend become more equitable between paint scoring and drive & kick playmaking on his switch possessions this coming year.

I’d be remiss if I finished the section on his PNR reads without the “what the hell were you thinking?” possessions. Mann was prone to over-seasoning his looks, especially when it came to behind-the-back passing attempts.

But hey. If you have unlimited confidence in yourself, some weird stuff is going to happen. I’d rather have the guy who tries audacious stuff and fails from time to time than the guy who stays in the pocket and is afraid to get a little wild.

Confidence was the name of the game with Mann’s driving game. There is a reason his rim frequency nearly doubled in his switch over to Charlotte, posting an 88th percentile rim rate amongst combo guards. Role change and confidence go hand in hand. A new team hands you the keys and says do what you do best. Mann doesn’t have to be asked twice.

Obviously, pick and roll/pop looks are the main way Mann creates his on-ball looks. But what about his handoff game?

Dribble Handoffs

Charlotte wasn’t exactly a handoff-heavy squad. Compared to their pick-and-roll frequency, second highest in the league, the Hornets only generated 4.1% of their offense from handoffs. That was good for 10th lowest in the league (all numbers per Synergy).

When they did run handoffs, it was largely pitch/delay action looks. Pitch looks are often conducive to picking a direction. The pitch allows the guard receiving the handoff to generate extra momentum before the screen, momentum best used going downhill in the reverse direction of the pitch. Mann was pretty damn good on the drive whether going right or left off these looks.

It wasn’t often when the handoff led to an outright switch, but Mann created a couple of good looks out of them.

The handoffs are a great way for a downhill-first guy like Mann to create quality looks. What interests me for this season is what the usage looks like there.

Charlotte was already a low-frequency handoff team; Charles Lee comes from a Boston system that ran the third-lowest volume of handoffs this past season. But going back further in Lee’s assistant coaching tenure to Milwaukee, he was part of teams that ran handoffs at higher rates. Those Milwaukee squads had 53rd, 43rd, 27th, 70th, and 50th percentile handoff frequency rankings over Lee’s 5 seasons by the lake. Where that usage falls this upcoming year will be of great interest to me.

Creating on the ball is of the utmost importance for a player with Mann’s skill set. Yet that LaMelo Ball fella is still in town as long as his ankles are working. How does a combo guard like Mann coexist with a heavy usage guard like Ball?

Off-Ball Creation

So much about off-ball creation is shooting, especially for guards. When the ball is in the hands of his teammates, Mann is more often than not stationed above the break evaluating his chances for a catch-and-shoot look. Opportunity calls, and Mann answers with unlimited confidence in his catch-and-shoot jumper.

Not only is he unfazed by the prospect of taking a catch-and-shoot three, he will happily extend his range well beyond the arc.

Another thing that speaks to his confidence is experimenting with no-dip jump shots. It’s not the most important or useful skill, yet any shooter willing to try it has enough belief in their touch to overcome conventional mechanics. Sure, he went 0/2 trying it, but it’s the trying that counts here.

Mann took 80% of his threes above the break and hit at a 35% clip, 44th percentile amongst combo guards. That represented a career-high above the break percentage for Tre. The corner three chances were few and far between, but a career-high 43% won’t hurt. Competent spacing off the ball is a boon to his teammates, namely the drivers and bigs, but should help him to coexist with LaMelo Ball if/when the two share the floor.

The spacing he provides opens up chances for Mann as well in the form of closeout attacks.

Tre isn’t just a shooter and driver when working off the ball. As a player with lots of off-ball experience in Oklahoma City, Mann showed a solid sense of when to cut, not only to score himself but to create for others.

It’s a little skill to watch out for, but Mann anticipates his perimeter swing passes well and delivers with some zip. If you’re going to swing to your teammates, do so before the closeouts can arrive and put it in the pocket.

Mann’s 1.14 assist/usage rate in Charlotte speaks to his skill as an off-ball playmaker. Making timely reads when the ball finds you and the defense is in rotation expands your utility without the ball in his hands. And with the aforementioned LaMelo Ball returning to the lineup, oscillating between shooting, cutting and playmaking off the ball will help keep Mann on the floor.

And hey, for a 6’4″ guard, that athleticism sure as hell makes him a threat on the offensive glass.

Your combo guard being a 48th percentile offensive rebounder isn’t going to be some massive swing for the team, but Mann’s increased projected use off the ball may lead to more production on the glass. His hustle for the boards could make him an exciting possession-extending tool in the backcourt.

Is it possible that there are other ways Mann contributes to an offense?

Transition

Yes, there are!

Mann’s speed, athleticism, playmaking sense and ballhandling skill makes him an ideal transition weapon out of the backcourt. The main way this shows itself is the sense of pushing in semi-transition against an unsettled defense.

If given a true open floor to run, the scoring potential brings a charge into the building, and specifically Eric Collins.

It’s not contained to creating chances for himself. Mann is more than willing to use his scoring threat before finding layoff passes to rim runners or trailing shooters.

My only nitpick with his transition game is a lack of recognizing chances early with quick outlet passes. Mann has great placement on his throws, and not even Tre can run faster than the ball. Rip down those rebounds and get your eyes up. Let the ball do the work sometimes, not the legs.

Looking Forward

The first dozen or so games for Charlotte should be very interesting when it comes to Mann.

Charlotte plans on Tre controlling the bench unit scoring. Mann was seated for the opening tipoff in the five preseason games, with Josh Green, Seth Curry, and Tidjane Salaun all getting starts. Green projects as the starting option (insert opening night thought). This leaves us with questions.

How many minutes will Mann play alongside LaMelo? How does he balance on/off ball usage when playing with him? On the bench lineups, will Mann be a primary point-of-attack player along with his heavy offensive usage? Does Josh Green play with him often to take some of the defensive assignments? Most importantly, will he retain his seemingly limitless confidence when coming off the bench?

Opening night began to answer some of these questions. Despite coming off the bench, Mann played most of his minutes alongside LaMelo, closing out Houston in a wild late comeback. Confidence was no issue as Mann played most of his possessions off the ball, scoring 24 on 8/16 shooting and 4/8 from deep. There were several clutch buckets down the stretch of last night’s game:

I’ll be watching for a few specific areas of improvement and potential scheme changes. How can Mann better attack switches and choose rejection opportunities? Can he keep up the high free throw rates for consistent offense? Will the same playmaking chances be there with the bench lineups?

On a scheme level, I’ll be monitoring his handoff usage and catch-and-shoot rates under new coach Charles Lee. I would assume anyone who has been in the Celtics locker room knows the benefits of getting up as many threes as you can.

Don’t expect any predictions on future stardom in these articles going forward. I’ll show you the water and lead you to it, but won’t make you drink. You, dearest reader, must decide what you think of Mann’s potential for yourself.

We’ll check back in on Mann this year as he seeks to prove his worth in Charlotte, on the floor, and (most importantly for Tre) in the cap sheet.

The post Finding a Role – Tre Mann appeared first on Swish Theory.