The best way to finish off a season preview series is through predictions. It gives me as a writer a way to get my final thoughts out there. Also, it gives me the means to hold myself accountable when I get plenty wrong this year. So today I will be predicting the awards, standings, and champions ahead. Let’s get started:

First-Time All-Stars – Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith

The All-Star Game rarely lends itself to new entrants. With such a high concentration of the top players in the league, it is tough to break through into the hallowed top 24. However, with so many players joining forces on a super team and a couple of notable stars retiring last year, there is little room to break through. 

It is astounding Allisha Gray has not broken through before. She has in every sense other than a labeled accolade. As a 3-point sniper and transition attacker, Gray brings an offensive variability that the Dream will truly appreciate. Her defensive acumen fits well on the fifth-rated defense from last year. She will finally get her recognition. 

Kelsey Mitchell should have been an All-Star last year. At the end of the year, she finished sixth in scoring. Through the All-Star break, Mitchell averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists while nailing 42.2 percent of her long-distance attempts. If Indiana had a better reputation across the league she would have been an easy inclusion. 

Even if they do not, two of their players are going to make it impossible to ignore that this season. Mitchell is going to benefit from plenty of open looks given the reshaping of the roster. Their record will not matter if she is pushing for the scoring title. The other, bridges the gap to the next section, while I also believe she will make her first All-Star appearance. 

Most Improved Player – NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith could easily have gotten lost in the shuffle last year. The Indiana Fever were not much talked about. The player drafted just in front of her, Rhyne Howard, took the league by storm and made the All-Star Game as a rookie. 

Smith was no one’s afterthought. She finished sixth in overall rebounds and proved to be a double-double machine. She then went on to Athletes Unlimited and earned the top award in the league. She is ready to grow and take the next step. 

Playing next to Aliyah Boston (more on her later) is only going to make things easier for the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Quietly Indiana is amassing an interesting grouping of talent and Smith is going to clearly benefit from it this season. It is easy to imagine her leading the league in rebounding and double-doubles. Yes, Boston will rebound in her own right, but Queen Egbo did that last year and Smith was undeterred. 

Smith is not the kind of celebrated star that destroys highlight reels. Her work is dirty, but effective. It is why she made sense next to Mitchell’s explosive scoring. This will also behoove her to grow alongside a face of a franchise like Boston. Fans of the game, however, will appreciate the growth she makes next year. 

Coach of the Year – Eric Thibault

If you have been keeping up with my previews, you are already fully aware of how high I am on the Washington Mystics. They did not necessarily have the starry offseason that others did, but their team is absolutely loaded with elite talent. Mike Thibault, the former champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, stepped down during the offseason. This made way for his son to step up and continue the legacy.

The younger Thibault has been with the organization for a decade and has paid his dues. Coming into a team that is as established benefits from hiring a coach from within that has been along for the highs (2019 championship) and lows (missing the playoffs in 2016 and 2021). Thibault is going to be awesome in this role. 

Elena Delle Donne being on the court more regularly will make Washington one of the feel-good stories of the season. The best defensive team from a season ago added Brittney Sykes to make life even worse for opponents. Shakira Austin is going to be even better. So much feels like it is leading to big things for Washington this season and Thibault seems like the most likely individual to be recognized. 

Sixth Player of the Year – Tiffany Mitchell

This may quickly look foolish if the Minnesota Lynx end up starting Tiffany Mitchell more often than not. However, she has all of the tools to be one of the most effective spark plugs off the bench in the league. In the two preseason games, she came off the bench once and proceed to lead the team in scoring. 

After starting less than half the games in her seven seasons in Indiana, Mitchell came to the Lynx for a bigger role. Even if that comes off the bench, Mitchell is ready to show plenty more. She took a step further as a shooter last season, drilling 38.7 percent of her long-distance attempts. The sample size was small, but if that continues she will likely lead the league in bench scoring. 

While this award is typically tough to predicate, having last season’s winner and runner-up move into starting roles, as well as past winners like Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby out of the running. This is a new direction for the award and someone is going to pop off in a new way. Mitchell is ready to shine in the new role. 

Rookie of the Year – Aliyah Boston

This is no disrespect to anyone else involved. I am a big Haley Jones fan. Diamond Miller is going to get a ton of opportunities with the Lynx to shine and will benefit from Napheesa Collier being there more than last season. However, this is Aliyah Boston’s award to lose. 

It is easy to forget that Boston suffered a leg injury last year that took some of the bloom off the rose of her as a prospect. Before that, she was considered a generational talent that fans were ready for their teams to build around. That has not changed despite the continued meteoric rise of Caitlin Clark. Boston is everything a team should want to build around. 

As a junior, Boston averaged 16.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Those numbers are clearly absurd. She will not be playing next to an All-Star-level power forward and a lethal scorer on the perimeter. Her life is going to be made easier than most number-one picks get to benefit from. 

We are in a special run of top picks. Rhyne Howard transformed a franchise. The future drafts are being hyped to another level. Boston is absolutely on that level and is going to be part of the Fever turnaround in earnest. 

Defensive Player of the Year – Brittney Sykes

This is past due. Yes, it is tough for guards to win this award. The only guards or guard/forwards to ever win it are Teresa Weatherspoon (twice), Sheryl Swoopes (three times), Debbie Black, and Alana Beard (twice). However, if there was ever someone to break that mold it is Brittney Sykes. 

Among starters who played at least 20 games, Sykes was second in steal rate. She has led the league in steals for two straight seasons and made three consecutive All-Defensive teams. Furthermore, Sykes just brought home the WNBL Defensive Player of the Year. This run of defensive dominance needs to be recognized at the highest level. 

The quiet part is that she is joining a roster loaded with defensive stalwarts. Four of the top 15 players in defensive win shares are on this team. Shakira Austin is going to be the anchor behind the rest holding everything together. This will allow Sykes to be her full bulldog self. 

MVP – Breanna Stewart

This pick breaks tradition. Since 2017, the MVP has been awarded to someone on the team with the best record in the league. While I will not be picking the New York Liberty to finish the regular season with the best record, it is going to be close. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were close last season (and have been for the last few years, even when Jonquel Jones won). They are likely to remain close in contention for this award as long as they remain in the league. 

So when picking between the two of them, I decided to focus on a different historical trend. No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Cynthia Cooper took home the first two. Both of these players are playing with even more loaded teams than they have had in years past. They are both going to put up ridiculous numbers. 

Going one step further, I would predict the top three finalists to be Stewart, Wilson, and Rhyne Howard. Howard is going to be even better and the Atlanta Dream are going to push for home-court advantage in the first round. It is not too early to appreciate what kind of killer she is about to be.

Standings

1. Las Vegas
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Connecticut
5. Atlanta
6. Los Angeles
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix 
9. Minnesota
10. Chicago
11. Seattle
12. Indiana

Finals Prediction: Las Vegas Aces over the Washington Mystics

Nothing really to see here. Washington is my sleeper team of the season. However, if the bracket breaks that they have to go through both Las Vegas and New York without home court for either series, imaging coming out on top of both of those series is tough. 

These standings could be broken down into different tiers. The top three teams, to me, are the only true title contenders. Connecticut is close and remains pesky, but no one would really pick them to finish off the deal. Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas feel like they are headed in the right direction but not necessarily good enough to get out of the first round. 

Phoenix could be the last playoff seed and everyone will be rooting for Brittney Griner’s return to the court. However, the overall roster feels more in line with the other also-rans. A few impressive individual talents but not quite on the level of the actual good teams.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. Getting into the real contenders, do not sleep on the Washington Mystics. They flew under the radar for much of last season before entering the postseason with a momentum that was only halted by one last flash from a franchise icon. Now, they might be even better. 

2022 Recap

As one of the class franchises in the league, there was hype coming into the 2022 season. Sure, there was some concern over the health of franchise icon Elena Delle Donne. The former two-time MVP had only played three games since winning a title in 2019, so it was tough to know what to expect. 

EDD played 25 of 36 games and competed at an All-Star level (despite being snubbed). She averaged 17.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game. As one of the most efficient two-way stars of any era, Delle Donne was a standout for a team full of them. 

Natasha Cloud led the league in assists and took another step forward as one of the best guards in the league. Ariel Atkins was the team’s lone All-Star and did a little bit of everything for the team. 

All in all, what ended up being coach Mike Thibault’s final season was a fun one. Washington was a problem for every team on a nightly basis and posted the best defensive rating in the league. If they had finished a little higher in the standings they would have presented problems for any of the higher seeds in a second-round outing. 

The veteran core is impressive enough. Add in the rookie dynamo that wreaked havoc last season, and look out. 

Rookie Wall Who?

As someone who picked Shakira Austin to win Rookie of the Year last year, the impressive start to her career was no surprise. Despite coming into the season expected to be a reserve on a team with talented bigs, Austin could not be denied for long. It only took two weeks for her to break into the starting lineup and never look back. 

Austin is a transformational defensive force. She can block out the sun and rotate with ease, locking down any section of the floor the team needs her to. Given the elite defensive talent on the roster, this adaptability obviously endeared her to teammates and the coaching staff alike. 

Her offensive game is even more refined than many expected coming out of college. There was always the expectation that she would be able to turn into a two-way force, but being able to compete with legends in year one was a nice surprise. 

Perhaps more important, Austin developed chemistry up and down the roster. Myisha Hines-Allen is one of the few other young players on the roster to get significant minutes. They pair well off the bench and unlock each other’s offensive games. 

This season will be a big opportunity for Austin. Washington has doubled down on its defensive identity. Austin, in my eyes, will be a Defensive Player of the Year within the next few seasons. This season will work to build that reputation while also refining her offensive game on a team that will only need her to be, on most nights, the third option at best. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Rui Machida, Alysha Clark, Elizabeth Williams

In: Brittney Sykes, Amanda Zahui B.

Re-Signed: Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Tianna Hawkins

2023 Draft: Elena Tsineke, Txell Alarcon

With Mike Thibault leaving the team, it is now his son Eric’s time to take the lead. Luckily for him, this team looks even better than last year. Alysha Clark was not quite herself coming off her the injury that caused her to miss her first season with the team. Rui Machida was a nice spark off the bench, but the team can manage. Elizabeth Williams is a pro’s pro, but again, replaceable. 

Brittany Sykes is arguably the best defender in the league and will no longer be required to always be the best defender on her own team. A potential line-up of Atkins-Sykes-Cloud-Delle-Donne-Austin would be a monster to deal with on both sides of the ball. If they only play two of the guards, newly acquired Amanda Zahui B. could make for an interesting two-big pairing. 

It is impossible to talk about the draft without talking about the Stephanie Soares trade, not just from a Mystics’ standpoint, but for the league overall. This is the culmination of a multi-year asset amalgamation. 

Last year, Washington traded from one to three (landing Austin) while giving up another first this year to add swap rights this year. Then they moved this pick for a second in 2024 and a first in the loaded 2025 class. Moving out of the first round of a draft many are unimpressed with for one that teams are salivating to get into should be applauded. 

Prediction: 

It would come as a surprise to no one if Washington is able to make a run to the Finals. While they may not have had as splashy of free agency periods as New York and Las Vegas, this is a loaded roster. 

Austin is going to make a push to make her first All-Star Game. Sykes, Delle Donne, Cloud and Atkins will all have cases as well. Washington will have the best defense in the league again. Delle Donne will return to 50/40/90 form. Finally, DC will ruin the dream FInals, knocking off one of the presumptive favorites.

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