The best way to finish off a season preview series is through predictions. It gives me as a writer a way to get my final thoughts out there. Also, it gives me the means to hold myself accountable when I get plenty wrong this year. So today I will be predicting the awards, standings, and champions ahead. Let’s get started:

First-Time All-Stars – Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith

The All-Star Game rarely lends itself to new entrants. With such a high concentration of the top players in the league, it is tough to break through into the hallowed top 24. However, with so many players joining forces on a super team and a couple of notable stars retiring last year, there is little room to break through. 

It is astounding Allisha Gray has not broken through before. She has in every sense other than a labeled accolade. As a 3-point sniper and transition attacker, Gray brings an offensive variability that the Dream will truly appreciate. Her defensive acumen fits well on the fifth-rated defense from last year. She will finally get her recognition. 

Kelsey Mitchell should have been an All-Star last year. At the end of the year, she finished sixth in scoring. Through the All-Star break, Mitchell averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists while nailing 42.2 percent of her long-distance attempts. If Indiana had a better reputation across the league she would have been an easy inclusion. 

Even if they do not, two of their players are going to make it impossible to ignore that this season. Mitchell is going to benefit from plenty of open looks given the reshaping of the roster. Their record will not matter if she is pushing for the scoring title. The other, bridges the gap to the next section, while I also believe she will make her first All-Star appearance. 

Most Improved Player – NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith could easily have gotten lost in the shuffle last year. The Indiana Fever were not much talked about. The player drafted just in front of her, Rhyne Howard, took the league by storm and made the All-Star Game as a rookie. 

Smith was no one’s afterthought. She finished sixth in overall rebounds and proved to be a double-double machine. She then went on to Athletes Unlimited and earned the top award in the league. She is ready to grow and take the next step. 

Playing next to Aliyah Boston (more on her later) is only going to make things easier for the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Quietly Indiana is amassing an interesting grouping of talent and Smith is going to clearly benefit from it this season. It is easy to imagine her leading the league in rebounding and double-doubles. Yes, Boston will rebound in her own right, but Queen Egbo did that last year and Smith was undeterred. 

Smith is not the kind of celebrated star that destroys highlight reels. Her work is dirty, but effective. It is why she made sense next to Mitchell’s explosive scoring. This will also behoove her to grow alongside a face of a franchise like Boston. Fans of the game, however, will appreciate the growth she makes next year. 

Coach of the Year – Eric Thibault

If you have been keeping up with my previews, you are already fully aware of how high I am on the Washington Mystics. They did not necessarily have the starry offseason that others did, but their team is absolutely loaded with elite talent. Mike Thibault, the former champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, stepped down during the offseason. This made way for his son to step up and continue the legacy.

The younger Thibault has been with the organization for a decade and has paid his dues. Coming into a team that is as established benefits from hiring a coach from within that has been along for the highs (2019 championship) and lows (missing the playoffs in 2016 and 2021). Thibault is going to be awesome in this role. 

Elena Delle Donne being on the court more regularly will make Washington one of the feel-good stories of the season. The best defensive team from a season ago added Brittney Sykes to make life even worse for opponents. Shakira Austin is going to be even better. So much feels like it is leading to big things for Washington this season and Thibault seems like the most likely individual to be recognized. 

Sixth Player of the Year – Tiffany Mitchell

This may quickly look foolish if the Minnesota Lynx end up starting Tiffany Mitchell more often than not. However, she has all of the tools to be one of the most effective spark plugs off the bench in the league. In the two preseason games, she came off the bench once and proceed to lead the team in scoring. 

After starting less than half the games in her seven seasons in Indiana, Mitchell came to the Lynx for a bigger role. Even if that comes off the bench, Mitchell is ready to show plenty more. She took a step further as a shooter last season, drilling 38.7 percent of her long-distance attempts. The sample size was small, but if that continues she will likely lead the league in bench scoring. 

While this award is typically tough to predicate, having last season’s winner and runner-up move into starting roles, as well as past winners like Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby out of the running. This is a new direction for the award and someone is going to pop off in a new way. Mitchell is ready to shine in the new role. 

Rookie of the Year – Aliyah Boston

This is no disrespect to anyone else involved. I am a big Haley Jones fan. Diamond Miller is going to get a ton of opportunities with the Lynx to shine and will benefit from Napheesa Collier being there more than last season. However, this is Aliyah Boston’s award to lose. 

It is easy to forget that Boston suffered a leg injury last year that took some of the bloom off the rose of her as a prospect. Before that, she was considered a generational talent that fans were ready for their teams to build around. That has not changed despite the continued meteoric rise of Caitlin Clark. Boston is everything a team should want to build around. 

As a junior, Boston averaged 16.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Those numbers are clearly absurd. She will not be playing next to an All-Star-level power forward and a lethal scorer on the perimeter. Her life is going to be made easier than most number-one picks get to benefit from. 

We are in a special run of top picks. Rhyne Howard transformed a franchise. The future drafts are being hyped to another level. Boston is absolutely on that level and is going to be part of the Fever turnaround in earnest. 

Defensive Player of the Year – Brittney Sykes

This is past due. Yes, it is tough for guards to win this award. The only guards or guard/forwards to ever win it are Teresa Weatherspoon (twice), Sheryl Swoopes (three times), Debbie Black, and Alana Beard (twice). However, if there was ever someone to break that mold it is Brittney Sykes. 

Among starters who played at least 20 games, Sykes was second in steal rate. She has led the league in steals for two straight seasons and made three consecutive All-Defensive teams. Furthermore, Sykes just brought home the WNBL Defensive Player of the Year. This run of defensive dominance needs to be recognized at the highest level. 

The quiet part is that she is joining a roster loaded with defensive stalwarts. Four of the top 15 players in defensive win shares are on this team. Shakira Austin is going to be the anchor behind the rest holding everything together. This will allow Sykes to be her full bulldog self. 

MVP – Breanna Stewart

This pick breaks tradition. Since 2017, the MVP has been awarded to someone on the team with the best record in the league. While I will not be picking the New York Liberty to finish the regular season with the best record, it is going to be close. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were close last season (and have been for the last few years, even when Jonquel Jones won). They are likely to remain close in contention for this award as long as they remain in the league. 

So when picking between the two of them, I decided to focus on a different historical trend. No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Cynthia Cooper took home the first two. Both of these players are playing with even more loaded teams than they have had in years past. They are both going to put up ridiculous numbers. 

Going one step further, I would predict the top three finalists to be Stewart, Wilson, and Rhyne Howard. Howard is going to be even better and the Atlanta Dream are going to push for home-court advantage in the first round. It is not too early to appreciate what kind of killer she is about to be.

Standings

1. Las Vegas
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Connecticut
5. Atlanta
6. Los Angeles
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix 
9. Minnesota
10. Chicago
11. Seattle
12. Indiana

Finals Prediction: Las Vegas Aces over the Washington Mystics

Nothing really to see here. Washington is my sleeper team of the season. However, if the bracket breaks that they have to go through both Las Vegas and New York without home court for either series, imaging coming out on top of both of those series is tough. 

These standings could be broken down into different tiers. The top three teams, to me, are the only true title contenders. Connecticut is close and remains pesky, but no one would really pick them to finish off the deal. Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas feel like they are headed in the right direction but not necessarily good enough to get out of the first round. 

Phoenix could be the last playoff seed and everyone will be rooting for Brittney Griner’s return to the court. However, the overall roster feels more in line with the other also-rans. A few impressive individual talents but not quite on the level of the actual good teams.

The post WNBA Season Predictions appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. The final preview is finally here and it is for the reigning champions, the title favorites, the true face of the league. Of course, I am referring to the Las Vegas Aces. Somehow, even after a stunning season, the team got even better. But before looking forward, let’s look back.

Almost everything went absolutely perfectly for the Las Vegas Aces a season ago. The featured player section this week should surprise no one, so we will get into A’ja Wilson’s accomplishments shortly. 

2022 Recap

Kelsey Plum exploded, realizing the potential she always hinted at with her play. She finished second in the league in scoring, posting a line of 20.2 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game. In her first All-Star season, she was the All-Star MVP. 

Speaking of realized potential, goodness gracious Jackie Young took a step forward. She posted career highs across the board:  15.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Encouraged by new coach Becky Hammon, Young realized she was allowed to step behind the arc and let it fly. She attempted a career-high 3.4 per game and converted at a 43.1 percent clip. That is the second-best mark in the league for anyone attempting at least three per game (minimum 10 games). 

Chelsea Gray is the last player that got significant minutes that truly stood out, but man did she. The Point Gawd reached another stratosphere in the postseason, leading the team in points (21.7), assists (7.0), and steals (1.2) per game. This was the true difference-maker for the team overall. As the benches shortened and they were going for their first title, Gray stepped into a role she had not been asked to fill all season. 

Benches shortened is not a misnomer by the way. Only six players for the Aces logged more the 8.5 minutes per game in the postseason. That seventh player, Dearica Hamby, was once an integral part of this organization. The news around her treatment and departure from Vegas soured some of the good feelings. As there is still an ongoing investigation it is tough to comment broadly. But the Big Guard definitely deserved much better. 

Best in the World

If there was any debate or doubt, A’ja Wilson confirmed last season that she is the best player in the world. Yes, Breanna Stewart is tremendous and will continue to challenge the throne. But Wilson’s campaign was unassailable. 

Awards season was basically Aces season and Wilson brought home two of her own. The former Gamecock won her second MVP and her first Defensive Player of the Year, definitively outlining her two-way dominance. During the regular season, she averaged 19.5 points (fifth), 9.4 rebounds (second), 2.1 assists, 1.9 blocks (first), and 1.4 steals (12th) per game. At long last, like Jackie Young, Wilson was unleashed to let it fly from beyond the arc. The result, chef’s kiss.

Wilson truly blocked out the sun on one end of the court while remaining the definitive best player on the offensive end. Yes, Plum averaged more points per game. Even she would bow to the M’VP and acknowledge she was able to thrive because of the gravity of her teammate and the offensive game plan. Wilson is such a brilliant player that makes everyone around them better and is a true culture setter. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Dearica Hamby, Ji-Su Park, Iliana Rupert, Theresa Plaisance, Aisha Sheppard

In: Candace Parker, Alysha Clark

Re-Signed: Sydney Colson, Kiah Stokes

While this looks like a lot of names out and very few names in, that is exceptionally misleading. Hamby is an enormous loss but was almost completely out of the rotation during the title run. Again, the circumstances around her departure need to be looked into far more, but that is not for me to speculate. Sheppard, Plaisance, Park, and Rupert combined to log 85 minutes in the postseason. 

Adding Candace Parker and Alysha Clark, though, took the term super team to another level entirely. Clark is easy to forget about, as she was not quite herself coming off an injury last season. However, if she can get closer to form, having her as your sixth-best player is wild. Adding her to the third-best defensive unit that was lacking a lockdown wing is unfair. 

There is nothing else to say about Candace Parker that has not already been said. One of the absolute best of all time is joining the reigning champions to pursue another ring. She has shown in her two seasons in Chicago that she is willing to sacrifice individual numbers for team success. There is so much playmaking on this team already, and Parker only pushes that further. This team is going to be a joy to watch. 

Prediction

It should come as no surprise if Las Vegas finds themselves back in the WNBA Finals. Becky Hammon came to this organization (and stiff-armed NBA rumors this offseason) to build the next dynasty. Adding two championship-level pieces to their existing core is a home run. While they will walk away with less hardware individually this season, they will be back in the Finals.

The post Las Vegas Aces: 2023 Season Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. We move on to the team that for much of last season, everyone gave the benefit of the doubt. Coming off a title run on a .500 season, it was easy to assume everything would eventually click. 

For the 2022 Chicago Sky, the click never quite came at the highest level. 

2022 Recap

That may feel like a harsh statement for a team that finished with the best record in the league. Their advanced metrics, however, told the story of a team that was destined to come up short. They finished third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. 

There were flashes of brilliance. Emma Meesseman was everything the team hoped for when they secured her out of nowhere. Azura Stevens took a noticeable leap, becoming one of the best bench players in the league. Courtney Vandersloot and Candace Parker are timeless. Kahleah Copper (more on her shortly) continued to cement herself as the face of this team. 

The inconsistencies reared their head at the worst possible time. After finishing the season 3-3 in August, the playoffs started with a surprising loss to the upstart New York Liberty. They were able to ultimately weather the storm, but the Sun were too much for them. Then came the rebuild.

Offseason Overview

Out: Candace Parker, Allie Quigley, Azura Stevens, Courtney Vandersloot, Julie Allemand, Emma Meesseman 

In: Elizabeth Williams, Courtney Williams, Isabelle Harrison, Marina Mabrey, Alanna Smith

Re-Signed: Astou Ndour-Fall, Rebekah Gardner

2023 Draft: Kayana Traylor, Kseniya Malashka

Watching four starters and two of the top reserves leave in one off-season would be crippling for any franchise. Candace Parker did what she came home to do, Courtney Vandersloot watched her wife step away and went elsewhere to continue to pursue winning. Azura Stevens is ready to be a starter in her own right. 

To their credit, Chicago did what they could to bring in talent. They gave up a lot to bring in Marina Mabrey: two first-round picks, swap rights on another first-rounder, two second-round picks, a third-round pick, and the rights to Leonie Fiebich. Mabrey came a long way in recent seasons with Dallas. She will have to continue on an All-Star trajectory to benefit her new backcourt mate. Elizabeth Williams is a steady hand and will provide depth behind fellow newcomer Isabelle Harrison. Courtney Williams, for better or worse, is not afraid of any moment. 

Perhaps the best move they made, though, was bringing back Rebekah Gardner. As a 32-year-old rookie, Gardner became a quick favorite of many for her tenacious defense and smart playmaking. She will be essential for the team if they hope to make a return to the postseason. 

However, no one is more important than Kahleah Copper. 

Her Team Now

From the moment she signed her new contract with the team following the title, Kahleah Copper was confirmed to be the future face of this team. She was rightfully the Finals MVP on a team loaded with standouts. This season, she was even better. 

Copper posted career highs across the board: 15.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. She knocked down 35.6 percent of her career-high 3.3 3-point attempts per game. But her aggression remains her defining factor. 

Tenacity is an understatement. She attacks the rim with reckless abandon no matter who is in front of her. She is able to be patient and wait to draw in defenders. Then she attacks and makes everyone pay for whatever mistake they may make. 

As good as she is in the half-court, attacking in transition might be her greatest strength. It was what Candace Parker noted in her immediately after coming to the team. She unlocked the All-Star potential in Copper and the latter is never looking back. Now, she is going to be relied upon to be the definitive number one option on a team. This season will be fascinating to watch her grow. 

Prediction 

Despite their best efforts to rebuild on the fly around Copper, this is going to be a down season. While the rest of the league is getting better, Chicago is noticeably much worse than they were a season ago. If everything breaks exactly right they may be able to sneak into the back end of the playoffs, but I would bet against it. 

For the fans of developing talent, though, this could be fun. Dana Evans has shown flashes in her two seasons and will be tasked with a much larger workload. Ruthy Hebard was a college standout and may finally get a chance to take a step forward. While this may come with a 10-seed, that is also part of the process.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. After a surprise run to the WNBA Finals, the mood in Connecticut should be positive. However, with so much off-season turnover, the question remains. Is the Sun setting?

2022 Recap

It was always going to be a weird year. Three years ago, Alyssa Thomas was the top option with Jonquel Jones taking off the bubble season. In 2021, AT missed the season and Jones skyrocketed to MVP status. With both sharing the court for the full season, combined with the continued emergence of Brionna Jones, it was time to see how everyone looked together.

The results are more complicated than normal and tend to depend on the angle from which you want to look. One win out of the top seed in the league, the Sun finished second in offensive and defensive rating. Even with Jasmine Thomas missing all but five games, the Sun were as elite as ever. 

That being said, they were not without question marks. Coming off an MVP, Jonquel Jones did not look the same. Her numbers went down across the board: 14.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. As good as she was a season before, this team reverted to being Alyssa Thomas’ team.

The mixed bag continued throughout the roster. Jasmine Thomas was missed for most of the season, Natisha Hiedeman cemented herself as a starter. DeWanna Bonner continued to see her numbers drop. Bri Jones, per 36 minutes, continued to ascend. 

As always, the most important member of the team was Alyssa Thomas. The Engine takes Connecticut to another level.

Total Eclipse

Alyssa Thomas was a revelation for much of the year. Her stats often do not tell the full story. Averaging 13.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.7 steals…those numbers are good, but not the normal stats you would see from an MVP candidate. 

Watching from game to game, however, it is easy to see. She did not earn the nickname “Engine” by accident. Everything ran through her. When Jasmine Thomas went out, AT became the de facto point guard, despite often sharing the court with Hiedeman.

The only player that did not seem to immediately get better from the usage rate of Thomas was the reigning MVP. Figuring out how to balance both of them was a consistent concern for former head coach Curt Miller. It worked well enough, obviously, given the run to the Finals. But there were notable times, even in the playoffs, when things were bristling. Which led to plenty of change during the offseason.

Offseason Overview

Out: Jonquel Jones, Jasmine Thomas, Courtney Williams, Joyner Holmes, Odyssey Sims

In: Rebecca Allen, Tyasha Harris, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Lauren Cox (training camp), Tiffany Hayes

Re-Signed: Brionna Jones, Natisha Hiedeman

2023 Draft: Alexis Morris, Ashten Prechtel 

Included but not outlined above, Curt Miller leaving as the leader of this team is a drastic shift. He won 60 percent or more of games in five of his seven seasons. He made two trips to the Finals. It will be tough for new coach Stephanie White to replicate. With a Finals appearance on her own resume, however, she stands a chance. 

The rest of the roster is notably different. There is no replacing a player like Jonquel Jones, but more clearly outlining the roles for Thomas and Bri Jones will do wonders. Courtney Williams was not a great fit on the team, and turning her place on the roster into depth should go a long way. 

Rebecca Allen is a career 36.9 percent shooter from distance, a boon for the team that attempted the second fewest triples in the league last season. Tyasha Harris is worth investing time in as a backup guard who never go enough of a chance in Dallas. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is an exciting young big who looked good in limited minutes in LA last year. If Lauren Cox makes the team, they will be a fun pair of bigs off the bench. 

Tiffany Hayes is the big swing of the offseason though. The former All-Star could have easily made her second appearance last season and comes in as the most dynamic scorer on the current roster. Fit is already drastically improved on this roster from a season ago and Hayes is going to thrive. 

Prediction: 

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Connecticut Sun will make the WNBA Semi-Finals. They will remain an elite defense while improving offensively. Alyssa Thomas will get the MVP while continuing to climb up the all-time triple-doubles list. While a title still feels unlikely, they will remain in the conversation.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. Getting into the real contenders, do not sleep on the Washington Mystics. They flew under the radar for much of last season before entering the postseason with a momentum that was only halted by one last flash from a franchise icon. Now, they might be even better. 

2022 Recap

As one of the class franchises in the league, there was hype coming into the 2022 season. Sure, there was some concern over the health of franchise icon Elena Delle Donne. The former two-time MVP had only played three games since winning a title in 2019, so it was tough to know what to expect. 

EDD played 25 of 36 games and competed at an All-Star level (despite being snubbed). She averaged 17.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game. As one of the most efficient two-way stars of any era, Delle Donne was a standout for a team full of them. 

Natasha Cloud led the league in assists and took another step forward as one of the best guards in the league. Ariel Atkins was the team’s lone All-Star and did a little bit of everything for the team. 

All in all, what ended up being coach Mike Thibault’s final season was a fun one. Washington was a problem for every team on a nightly basis and posted the best defensive rating in the league. If they had finished a little higher in the standings they would have presented problems for any of the higher seeds in a second-round outing. 

The veteran core is impressive enough. Add in the rookie dynamo that wreaked havoc last season, and look out. 

Rookie Wall Who?

As someone who picked Shakira Austin to win Rookie of the Year last year, the impressive start to her career was no surprise. Despite coming into the season expected to be a reserve on a team with talented bigs, Austin could not be denied for long. It only took two weeks for her to break into the starting lineup and never look back. 

Austin is a transformational defensive force. She can block out the sun and rotate with ease, locking down any section of the floor the team needs her to. Given the elite defensive talent on the roster, this adaptability obviously endeared her to teammates and the coaching staff alike. 

Her offensive game is even more refined than many expected coming out of college. There was always the expectation that she would be able to turn into a two-way force, but being able to compete with legends in year one was a nice surprise. 

Perhaps more important, Austin developed chemistry up and down the roster. Myisha Hines-Allen is one of the few other young players on the roster to get significant minutes. They pair well off the bench and unlock each other’s offensive games. 

This season will be a big opportunity for Austin. Washington has doubled down on its defensive identity. Austin, in my eyes, will be a Defensive Player of the Year within the next few seasons. This season will work to build that reputation while also refining her offensive game on a team that will only need her to be, on most nights, the third option at best. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Rui Machida, Alysha Clark, Elizabeth Williams

In: Brittney Sykes, Amanda Zahui B.

Re-Signed: Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Tianna Hawkins

2023 Draft: Elena Tsineke, Txell Alarcon

With Mike Thibault leaving the team, it is now his son Eric’s time to take the lead. Luckily for him, this team looks even better than last year. Alysha Clark was not quite herself coming off her the injury that caused her to miss her first season with the team. Rui Machida was a nice spark off the bench, but the team can manage. Elizabeth Williams is a pro’s pro, but again, replaceable. 

Brittany Sykes is arguably the best defender in the league and will no longer be required to always be the best defender on her own team. A potential line-up of Atkins-Sykes-Cloud-Delle-Donne-Austin would be a monster to deal with on both sides of the ball. If they only play two of the guards, newly acquired Amanda Zahui B. could make for an interesting two-big pairing. 

It is impossible to talk about the draft without talking about the Stephanie Soares trade, not just from a Mystics’ standpoint, but for the league overall. This is the culmination of a multi-year asset amalgamation. 

Last year, Washington traded from one to three (landing Austin) while giving up another first this year to add swap rights this year. Then they moved this pick for a second in 2024 and a first in the loaded 2025 class. Moving out of the first round of a draft many are unimpressed with for one that teams are salivating to get into should be applauded. 

Prediction: 

It would come as a surprise to no one if Washington is able to make a run to the Finals. While they may not have had as splashy of free agency periods as New York and Las Vegas, this is a loaded roster. 

Austin is going to make a push to make her first All-Star Game. Sykes, Delle Donne, Cloud and Atkins will all have cases as well. Washington will have the best defense in the league again. Delle Donne will return to 50/40/90 form. Finally, DC will ruin the dream FInals, knocking off one of the presumptive favorites.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. This brings us to the Seattle Storm. A fixture among the league elite for nearly two decades. Since 2004, Seattle has won four championships and missed the playoffs just twice. 

This, however, is the dawning of a new era. But before we can look ahead, we have to look back. 

2022 Recap

Last season was also known to be the last ride. Sue Bird announced it before the season. Briann January, added during the 2022 offseason, did the same. Breanna Stewart signed a one-year deal to be there for Sue’s final season. 

Most of the season was fine if not terribly threatening to the top of the league. Stewart led the league in scoring (21.8 points per game) and was a finalist for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year. Bird, Stewart, and Jewell Loyd were named All-Stars. Ezi Magbegor was close to being a fourth All-Star and took a meaningful step forward. 

With the third-best defense and sixth-best offense, Seattle entered the postseason with some optimism. They had the most anticipated series in the first round, pairing off with the Washington Mystics. Bird, Stewart, Loyd, and Gabby Williams had double figures in both games and handed the Mystics a surprising sweep. 

Then came the Aces. Game one was a big surprise for Seattle, with Loyd dropping 26 and Tina Charles putting up 13 points and 18 rebounds. That would be the last win of Sue Bird’s career. Las Vegas ended up being too much for anyone last season. Now, Seattle must look forward.

The New Trio

While two of these three players have been here for a while, it is clear now that the three most important players on the roster are Gabby Williams, Ezi Magbegor, and Jewell Loyd. Williams is the most unproven but was dynamic last season. She is great in transition and a bully on defense. She adds something to this team that will be needed in earnest to keep them in games this season. 

Magbegor was a diamond in the rough in 2022. Defense does not always lure fans in to watch the game. With Ezi, it should. She is so disruptive and is a nightmare for teams coming into Seattle. Whether it be covering up the MVP and making her disappear:

Or keeping up with one of the best point guards in the league in transition:

Magbegor is capable of it all. She is a defensive anchor and will be the building block going forward at just 23 years old. Her offensive game is developing and she will take on a heavier load this season. If that can catch up in a meaningful way to her defense, the rest of the league is in trouble.

Then there is Jewell Loyd. One of the toughest shot makers in the league. The things she does on the court are cold-blooded but also often help benefit her team, whereas others force their way into tough shots just for the highlight reel. Like, look at this:

As an elite 3-point sniper, Loyd will have to improve her 2-point efficiency as the now primary option on her team. While quite capable of that (she has shot greater than 40 percent from the field in six of her eight seasons), this will be the true test of her as a number one option.

Offseason Overview

Out: Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart, Epiphany Prince, Tina Charles, Reshanda Gray, Briann January, Stephanie Talbot, Kiana Williams, Kaela Davis, 

In: Kia Nurse, Sami Whitcomb, Arella Guirantes (training camp), Jade Melbourne, Ivana Dojkic, Jasmine Walker

Re-Signed: Ezi Magbegor

2023 Draft: Jordan Hortson, Madi Williams, Dulcy Fankam Mendjiadeu, Jade Loville

Sheesh, that is quite a bit of turnover. Two franchise faces. Two celebrated veterans playing out the string impressively. Rotation pieces. Things are clearly changing in Seattle. However, three offseason moves bring some level of optimism.

Sami Whitcomb has won two titles in Seattle before. As a veteran sniper, she will provide spacing throughout the season. She is just a season removed from canning 42.5 percent of her attempts from distance. While the team is trending younger, having someone who can be a calming presence while creating release valves for the top players is essential.

In that same vein, getting Kia Nurse at the value they did is a potential boon. Coming off a torn ACL in the 2021 WNBA Finals, Nurse did not play at all last season. However, she is a former All-Star who is hitting their prime. She can defend at a high level and score as a complimentary option. If she is able to be anything like the player we specifically saw in New York, this is a steal.

Finally, I am still buying up all the Arella Guirantes stock. Her WNBA career has been entirely forgettable, but internationally she had shown she can be something. She was the Centrobasket MVP last year, representing Puerto Rico. She dropped more than 20 points in all three pool play games, including a 31 points, nine assists, five steals, four rebounds, three blocks masterclass. In the finals, she had 28 points and 14 rebounds. There is something worth investing in with Arella.

Prediction: 

Seattle will likely be competitive on most nights. Magbegor, Loyd, Williams, and (hopefully) Guirantes will keep them in games nightly. Magbegor is going to lead the league in rebounds, will be a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year, and make her first All-Star Game. 

However, this is not a playoff team in my eyes. There is just not enough here. As good of a coach as Noelle Quinn is, there is only so much you can do. This may also be Loyd’s last season in the Northwest. Take cover Storm fans. This could be the start of something you are truly not used to.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. This week, the Dallas Wings are under the microscope. After winning the first playoff game since moving to Texas, stability and positivity should overflow with the Wings.

If you believe that, you do not know the Dallas Wings. 

2022 Recap

Dallas, like New York, has been looked at as one of the teams on the precipice for a few seasons. After drafting Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally in consecutive drafts before adding the top two picks in 2021 (Charli Collier and Awak Kuier), Dallas looked to be building for the future. 

Last season, Kuier, Collier, and Sabally played a combined 200 minutes less (733) than Ogunbowale (941) last season. Sabally, as has unfortunately been common, missed plenty of time due to injury. The second-year bigs, however, struggled to gain the consistent trust of then-coach Vickie Johnson. 

The season turned for the better when they moved offseason acquisition Teaira McCowan into the starting lineup full-time. Before the move, Dallas was 10-13 on the season with offensive e ratings of 101.6. Over the last 13 games, the Wings won eight and improved to an offensive rating of 110.0, second best in the league over that span. 

Allisha Gray, Kayla Thornton, and Isabelle Harrison brought their typical veteran excellence to a team that needed every bit of it. Marina Mabrey became a full-time starter and a knockdown sniper. But there was always something hanging over the team. A cult of personality, if you will. 

Arike’s World, For Better or Worse

Arike Ogunbowale is an exceptional offensive talent. She has never finished outside the top five in scoring, leading the league in her second season. Disruptive in passing lanes, Ogunbowale also forces plenty of turnovers. She is one of the marquee tough shot makers in the league. 

She is also just a bit reckless. Her shot selection leaves something to be desired. Taking the most shots per game of anyone in the league, Ogunbowale had a good season this year, shooting just 40 percent from the field. 

This Dallas team needs a leader at the center, and Arike, at least through her age 25 season, has improvements to be made on that front. Whether it be dumping water bottles on the floor or kicking everything in sight (basketballs, commentary desks, pick your poison), Ogunbowale was a regular topic of discussion for the wrong reasons. As someone who is supposed to be the leader of a team, this is obviously a suboptimal look. As reports grew that Vickie Johnson was not in control and both Gray and Harrison indicated they wanted out, something more stable would have gone a long was to building beyond the last month of the season. Alas, it was not meant to be. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Tyasha Harris, Kayla Thornton, Allisha Gray, Isabelle Harrison, Marina Mabrey

In: Natasha Howard, Crystal Dangerfield, Diamond DeShields, Kitija Laksa

Re-Signed: Tierra McCowan

2023 Draft: #3, #5, #11, #19, #31

Obviously, this is a fair bit of roster turnover for a team that seemed to have found itself over the last third of the season. Gray and Harrison made it clear that they would not be back. As much as they will be missed, ending up with the third pick in the draft plus a future first is a boon. 

Thornton has been the defensive anchor for this team, but turning her and Ty Harris into All-Star Natasha Howard and Crystal Dangerfield was an intriguing move. Howard can be just as impactful defensively and should pair well with Ogunbowale should she become a more active passer. 

Marina Mabrey will be missed. She grew into quite a shooter getting paired over the last two seasons with her college teammate. Again, though, signing and trading her for multiple first-round picks and Diamond DeShields is smart. DeShields was clear that she was still going through plenty last season. If she is able to recapture any of her All-Star form this is a strict upgrade for the Wings. 

Yet again, they have control of the draft. With three first-round picks, they could cheaply fill out the rest of their roster and continue building the foundation for the future. Howard and DeShields are high-quality additions who have won at the highest level. With new head coach Latricia Trammell finally getting her shot to run a team, things may be looking up.

Prediction

Dallas is going to continue to improve. If Arike Ogunbowale can embrace the leadership role her supporting case needs, she could become one of the faces of this league. Her brand of hero ball is not for everyone, but it can be electric. Howard, DeShields, McCowan, and Sabally provide plenty of help. 

Even if the overall product is better, Dallas is still unlikely to move up the standings much. Satou Sabally will be healthier than in years past and will push for her second All-Star appearance. Awak Kuier will dunk in a game. Charli Collier will be moved this season. Haley Jones, who I predict will be drafted third overall, will finish second in Rookie of the Year. Despite another early playoff exit, Dallas may be on the right track.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. That brings us to the most talked about team from the offseason. Going into last season the New York Liberty were one of the up-and-coming franchises. They made overtures in free agency to some of the top names before landing on a solid team. With some future maybes and a solid core, 2022 was all about improvement. 2023, however, brings title favorite vibes. 

2022 Recap

For a franchise that is not far removed from the absolute bottom of the league, this season was a ton of fun in New York. Despite former All-Star Betnijah Laney being limited to just nine games, New York found success. Under new coach Sandy Brondello the team made it back to the postseason. They even took a game off the defending champion Chicago Sky. 

Even better, the progress was across the roster. Yes, Laney and Sabrina Ionescu had a magnetic connection.

Ionescu, for her part, was exceptional beyond any certain pairing. Her stats jump off the page: 17.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game on 41/33/93 shooting splits. She was the only player in the top 15 of all three major categories and the only one in the top three of two. Sabrina is absolutely the “face of the franchise” level talent that was advertised coming out of college.

The excitement went beyond Ionsecu, though. Han Xu and Marine Johannes returned to the league for their second seasons, both last playing in 2019. Xu was a physical force off the bench. Johannes provided passing wizardry that lit Twitter on fire.  Natasha Howard made her second All-Star appearance and showed what this roster could do with killed size. Stef Dolson provided a varied skillset for a big off the bench and is the dream complementary piece. 

Clearly, the table was set for the next step. Despite a step back for Rookie of the Year Michaela Onyenwere, the vision in New York was clear. They just needed to add the right pieces to take the next step. About that…

Offseason Overview

Out: Rebecca Allen, Crystal Dangerfield, Natasha Howard, Sami Whitcomb, Michaela Onyenwere

In: Kayla Thornton, Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Epiphany Prince, Courtney Vandersloot, Sika Kone, Nyara Sabally

2023 Draft: #30

Usually, I have written an additional section before the offseason moves, but there is too much here to go into. This is a totally different team. So before getting into the three new faces of the franchise, let’s look at the periphery first. 

Natasha Howard is the biggest loss from last season, albeit understandable. To bring in three max contract-level players, something had to give. Howard was an All-Star last season and should be a boon for her new team in Texas. Bec Allen and Sami Whitcomb came into the season as sharpshooters and left dropping around seven percentage points on their previous season’s averages. 

Crystal Dangerfield was a fun reclamation project a season ago, but she was no longer the player who won Rookie of the Year in the bubble. Michaela Onyenwere, who won Rookie of the Year in here own right, took a slight step back and was more of a casualty of cap space in all the movement than anything else. 

Beyond the standout additions, Kayla Thornton should standout more. She already showed that she can be an elite defensive stalwart when surrounded by less-than-stellar talent on that end. Now, with All-Defensive-level teammates, she is going to be a terror. Also, keep an eye on Sika Kone and Nyara Sabally coming in on rookie contracts. Along with DiDi Richards and the aforementioned Ionescu, Xu, and Johannes, there is plenty of inspiring young talent on a star-laden team. 

Stew York

It makes sense to start with the signing that was forecasted a year in advance. Breanna Stewart took a meeting with the Liberty after the 2021 season. The team even brought in one of her best friends Stef Dolson. Ultimately, Stewie decided to return to Seattle for Sue Bird’s final season. 

Now she is here and the New York Liberty are the evolution of the most dangerous skillset alignment in the league. Skilled size was the wave for years in the draft. Pairing Stewart, Dolson, and Jonquel Jones give the team arguably the most in the league. 

Stewart has shown previously the proclivity to get other bigs involved, and that was with more (respectfully) limited offensive players like Ezi Magbegor. Pairing her with a pick-and-pop big like Dolson or an MVP like Jones is going to cause matchup nightmares for anyone they face. Stewart is a smart passer, strong defender, and, obviously, a lethal scorer. 

Pairing Stewart with Ionescu unites two of the most cold-blooded scorers in the league. She, like new teammate Courtney Vandersloot, has won at the highest levels in the league. Stewart will finally be facing single defenders after being one of two lethal offensive players on her team for years. She is going to be unleashed in unprecedented fashion. 

Sun Down

The fact that Jonquel Jones moving to New York is the second biggest story for the franchise in an offseason is no slight on the former Sun. Jones may have had a down year last year but that is only graded on her own high scale. The All-Star averaged 14.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. 

Something with the Sun felt off for much of the season, despite them making the run to the Finals. After emerging as an MVP in the absence of Alyssa Thomas, Jones, and Thomas were never able to fully mesh again. Add in the emergence of Bri Jones and something had to give. JJ forced the issue.

Now, she is playing in a more free-flowing offense. With two of the most exceptional passers in the starting lineup and a fellow MVP in the frontcourt, Jones is going to be able to breathe again. Last season likely taught her how important it would be to fit in alongside other stars. Even if her numbers dip, she is likely to be better than ever. 

Sloot There It Is

Perhaps the most surprising turn of events, Courtney Vandersloot also left her longtime home to put together something special in New York. For many, it was hard to imagine her playing anywhere other than Chicago. With wife Allie Quigley stepping away, though, it became easier for Sloot to move on from the only team she has suited up for in her 12-year career.

Vandersloot has played the last few seasons setting up a collection of All-Stars. She has led the league in assists six times, ending a five-year streak last year. While others are trying to fit in, this is the role Sloot was made for. Both she and Chelsea Gray in Las Vegas have been bandied about as point gods (or gawds, in terms of Gray) and they both have the most talent around them yet.

If you are a passing aficionado, watch Courtney Vandersloot. For the diehards, imagining her mentoring Marine Johannes is tantalizing. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during practice where they attempt to outdo each other with ridiculous dimes. 

Prediction

The hype is real. Finishing the regular season with a top-two seed is the goal given the amalgamation of talent in the Big Apple. They will send at least three representatives to the All-Star Game. I would guess they will have a season like we saw last season from Las Vegas, taking home several awards and the Commissioner’s Cup. While they are not my pick to win it all, they will be in the WNBA Finals.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. That brings us to the most widely discussed team in the league for non-basketball reasons. Beyond the international incident that transcended sports, the Phoenix Mercury never stopped giving us something to discuss for all the wrong reasons. 

2022 Recap

After making a Finals appearance, the Phoenix Mercury came through the 2022 offseason with high expectations. Tina Charles joined the fold, adding to the talented group of Skylar Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, and Brittney Griner. 

Then the unthinkable happened. 

Sports franchises can plan for plenty of things. Seeing the face of your franchise taken hostage as a political prisoner during a war on the other side of the world is not one of them. Her situation was one of the biggest news stories of the year outside of sports. The fact that she is home and recovering is more important than any championship. 

Without BG, the Mercury put together a listless, messy season. Controversy came with a new story seemingly every week. Despite that, some players still found a way to stand out. Diana Taurasi is not the same player she once was, but on any given night she can still provide a scoring explosion. She dropped 30 or more points on three occasions last year, two of which came after her 40th birthday.

Bri Turner remains one of the most underrated players in the league. She was one of only seven players to average at least a block and a steal per game, despite being spread ever thinner than normal with Griner absent. Sophie Cuningham is one of the more polarizing players in the league, but she was among the most improved players in this league this year. After an impressive playoff run the year before, the fourth-year wing posted career highs across the board: 12.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.0 steals per game while hitting 40 percent of her 6.3 3-point attempts per game. 

Diggins-Smith remained one of the best guards in the league. She posted her highest scoring output (19.7 points, third in the league) since her second year in the league. She was also top 10 in assists (5.5) and steals (1.5). 

No matter the overall brilliance of a stand-out star, the nonsense ended up winning out. Whether it be leaked audio, press conference missteps, or just poor fits, the Mercury remained messy.

The Best of the Mess

For most franchises, the sad situation around Griner would have been the only off-court story that would monopolize the locker room. For Phoenix, it was just the starting point. 

Many of the issues surrounded the culture brought on by first-year head coach Vanessa Nygaard. After years under head coach Sandy Brondello, including a trip to the Finals in 2021, Nygaard came in and things just felt off.  There were times when franchise pillars Skylar Diggins-Smith and Diana Taurasi openly butted heads. Nygaard dutifully took the side of Taurasi to the detriment of her current All-Star. Sometimes this is just coach things. Sycophant behavior is another thing. Talking down an All-Star level season because of personal biases was rightfully called out by Diggins-Smith.

Meanwhile, the newly added Tina Charles never fully gelled with her new teammates. The former MVP put up respectable numbers (17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists in 16 games) but they often felt like they were coming outside of the offense. When she asked for a buyout midseason, the team granted it. Regular rabble rowser Sophie Cunningham had some audible choice words for her former teammate. 

Messy was the word of the season for this franchise. They needed stability while they worried about their missing teammate. Instead, chaos. This falls on everyone involved. Cooler heads did anything but prevail. With the team being sold over the course of the offseason, things have to change in earnest for them to get back to winning. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Kia Nurse, Diamond DeShields

In: Michaela Onyenwere, Moriah Jefferson

2023 Draft: #27 and #29

Re-Signed: Sophie Cunningham, Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner 

Change, however, does not seem to be overly likely. Diana Taurasi was brought back on a two-year supermax. Griner was given a smaller two-year contract, which also raised some eyebrows. Cunningham, despite her volatility, earned her new contract. 

The biggest change came with the trade of the one-year experiment Diamond DeShields. Deshields was fine but the Mercury swapped her out for former Rookie of the Year Michaela Onyenwere. Moving to the bench in her second season in New York was not good for Onyenwere’s production. This transition could take time. Playing for her third coach in three seasons, Onyenwere needs to be given opportunities to adjust. If she is able to do so, the Mercury will be much better for it. 

Moriah Jefferson could be a perfect fit for the team. Skylar Diggins-Smith is slated to miss some amount of the season given her current pregnancy. Jefferson is the perfect veteran guard to keep the team afloat and then come off the bench when the star returns. There will be a transition period reintegrating Griner so having a stable hand in place could go a long way. 

Prediction 

I think we saw the last of the Diana Taurasi playoff appearances. While Jefferson will help keep the team afloat with Diggins-Smith, there is no replacing her scoring. Expecting Griner to return to her 2021 form after the year she suffered through seems like a fool’s errand. 

The best story in the league would be an MVP run and happiness for Brittney Griner. She deserves something good. However, the Mercury are currently not built to do something good.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. Now is when the true fun begins. Optimism was the theme last week. For this week, the sun has finally set on the last remnant of a waning dynasty. 

2022 Recap

The Minnesota Lynx have had an aura of a contender for a long time. As one of the few franchises with multiple titles, they have earned that reputation. But last season felt like the final fumes. Part of this was the last ride for Sylvia Fowles. A league legend, Fowles was still great into her final season, averaging 14.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game. Leading the league in rebounds in her final season was a great exclamation point on a great career. 

Beyond that, the season was mostly a miss. Losing out on star forward Napheesa Collier for all but four games doomed most hopes from the jump. Dropping the first four games of the season (including at the Indiana Fever) certainly did not help. Angel McCoughtry, the prized off-season acquisition, played only two games before an agreed-upon contract buyout.

The rest of the roster was fine, if uninspiring. Kayla McBride was a solid floor spacer, though her efficiency dropped by more than five full points (effective field goal percentage 52.6 to 47.5). Moriah Jefferson came in as a reclamation project and helped get the team back on track after their brutal start. Jefferson posted her best numbers since her rookie season, averaging 10.8 points, 4.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting a blistering 47.4 percent from distance. 

All this said, perhaps the most important long-term positive to take away from the season was Aerial Powers getting on track in her second season with the team.  If they are going to remain a playoff hopeful, this will have to continue. 

The Power(s) Move

For the first time since 2019, Aerial Powers was able to log a full season. In the bubble with the Mystics, Powers looked like she was about to take a star turn. She was a starter for the first time with Elena Delle Donne unable to play and quickly made the most of it. Then came an injury and her season was cut short after six games. Her first season in Minnesota was similarly hampered, ending after 14 games. 

The summer of 2022 was something different. Powers set new career highs in scoring twice with eight games with more than 20 points, specifically two over 30 points. As Fowles had learned to defer to a wing scorer from playing with Collier in recent seasons, Powers did her best to replicate that role. The results were impressive: 14.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Removing the six bubble games, these are career highs for a season for Powers. 

This level of growth is essential. As the Lynx look to rebuild without their last ring-winning Hall of Famer (aside of coach/GM Cheryl Reeve, of course), the current vets in place all need to be better. McBride has been an All-Star three times before. Phee has made it twice. Powers, however, looks like the most likely to make it alongside Collier this season.

Offseason Overview

Out: Sylvia Fowles, Moriah Jefferson

In: Tiffany Mitchell, Kiana Williams, Stephanie Watts

2023 Draft: #2, #12, #16, #24, #28

Re-Signed: Bridget Carleton, Nikolina Milic, Damiris Dantas, Rachel Banham

While only losing two players from a team that missed the playoffs may not be much for some teams, for the Lynx this is troublesome. Sylvia Fowles was arguably the best center in the league last year and leaves an enormous hole in the lineup. Moriah Jefferson was not, in my mind, adequately replaced and the team will rely on their wings more than most to shoulder the playmaking duties. 

That being said, the addition of Tiffany Mitchell should not be scoffed at. After seven seasons with the Indiana Fever, Mitchell found her role in the rotation dwindling. With so many young mouths to feed her minutes were put on a squeeze. The result was only her having her best shooting season on notably decreased volume. If she is able to carry that efficiency over a larger sample size she could revolutionize this lineup. 

The number two pick in the draft, however, is the most important decision the franchise will make this offseason. Minnesota did not have a first last year and the year prior they selected Rennia Davis, who got injured and ended up playing one game for the franchise last year. Ideally, the vision from the 2020 draft will return that saw them snag Rookie of the Year Crystal Dangerfield in the second round. Whether it be Haley Jones, Diamond Miller, Jordan Horston, or Maddy Siegrist, this could be a true turning point. 

Prediction

Ultimately, this season will likely look much like last season in terms of the standings. Napheesa Collier should be appointment television now that she is back, but the league is deeper than the last time she played a full season. If they are able to get an immediate contributor with the second pick they may be able to push past the other teams taking a step back. 

Collier and Powers provide more punch than the likes of Indiana and Seattle. But the Sparks and Dream, as I have discussed in past weeks, should be better than they were a season ago. Minnesota is in for a long summer.

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