That’s not what’s happening in 2024, despite Ionescu’s first appearance on the women’s basketball Olympic team and the release of the second volume of her signature shoe. Rather, compared to the first four seasons of her career, she’s flying under the radar, a mere star to the public rather than a superstar, though her impact metrics are starting to vouch for the opposite.

Ionescu currently ranks first in Positive Residual’s Estimated Contributions metric, or ‘EC,’ ahead of teammate Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, and the rest of the W. For the first time in her career, she is not grading out as a stark negative on defense, while easily soaring to the highest offensive EC number in the database.

In many ways, those numbers match the tape, particularly on defense, where Ionescu has clearly improved from awful to mediocre. But while that is indeed a vital jump for the New York Liberty, that’s not what I’m here to discuss.

I’m here to expand on what I wrote in this mid-season article on Ionescu’s offensive leap for the Libs, which has been the story of their season through 25 games. Here’s the SparkNotes version: After turning in one of the all-time great 3-point seasons by any professional player, shooting 44.8% on 9.6 3PA per 75 possessions, she’s morphed into far more of an offensive initiator in 2024. This is in part out of necessity, with backcourt partners Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton missing significant time this season, and in part because Ionescu is just better at handling the ball.

Her 3-point percentage is down to 35.6% thanks to a mix of natural regression and a weightier offensive load featuring more off-the-dribble attempts, but her two-point percentage is up from 38.3% in 2023 to 49.7% this year. That’s a trade-off New York is willing to make, and a result of stark improvement in her ball-handling skills. She’s patiently waiting out traps, splitting and swerving through hedges, or getting her shoulder into her primary defender. Whether applied by individual defenders or as a team, physicality and pressure is not phasing Ionescu in 2024. She keeps her dribble alive, and all of that is resulting in easier offense for her in the paint, by way of two-point shooting and passing.

It’s not like the 2020 #1 overall pick is a completely different player this year. There are signs of the play-finishing god that helped make the Liberty’s offense unstoppable last season, when she would set a bunch of screens and then come off some more, only for Vandersloot to deliver her the ball for an open three. Ionescu feasted on screen-the-screener actions in 2023, and New York still utilizes those for her in 2024…

Thus, she has become a savior of the dreaded ‘combo guard’ label, often applied to players as a last resort, as a prayer rather than as a positional designation for players missing one crucial skill.

In 2024, Ionescu has clarified the power of the combo guard by toggling between on-ball and off-ball excellence, not just within a season or even a game, but a possession. She doesn’t just have the ability to thrive with or without the ball in her hands, but the ability to blend both of those skill-areas so as to make their borders indistinguishable.

For example, she is one of the most prolific handoff-receivers in the game, as the dribble-handoff is a play-type perfectly suited to her strengths and weaknesses. As an on-ball creator, Ionescu isn’t the twitchiest athlete, missing the blazing first step of some of her contemporaries. However, she overcomes that by tapping into the off-ball movement skills we’ve known she’s had for a long time, the ones that helped produce her all-time 3-point shooting season in 2023.

Here, Jonquel Jones and Ionescu are aiming to set up a flare screen, but the pass goes to Jones which creates some confusion. However, Ionescu seamlessly springs into a handoff, a great cut that leaves defender Lindsay Allen in the dust…

Ionescu has created an advantage off-the-ball, which she then capitalizes on by hesitating around the hedge and whipping a live-dribble feed to Jones on the roll. Now, those are the on-ball skills that have shined for Ionescu this season, she’s just accessing them by way of her work away from the ball. (It should also be noted that the space she created from Allen allowed Jones to slip the screen early and get behind the defense.)

In the absence of elite burst, one of Sabrina’s notable strengths as an athlete is, well, her strength, specifically in her upper body. In 2023, she was one of the elite screen-setting guards in the WNBA, both for her willingness to get physical and her efficacy doing so. As a reward for her efforts, she got plenty of open 3-point looks, here bouncing off Emma Cannon after a bonafide collision like nothing happened:

When she isn’t handling the rock for New York in 2024, she’s still setting many of these screens. ‘Spain’ or ‘Stack’ action is a staple for the Liberty, with Ionescu often setting that back-screen on the roller and popping out to the 3-point line when the opportunity presents itself. On both of the following plays, the defense does well to shut down the initial action, but the ball finds its way into Sabrina’s hands, and guess what attribute shines when she decides to drive to the rim…

That’s right, her strength, as fellow Olympians Jewell Loyd and Kahleah Copper are each introduced to Ionescu’s right shoulder on their ride to the rim. Now, Ionescu isn’t setting hard screens there if she’s setting them at all, but her strength is undoubtedly a main reason she excels in those positions. As she flows from off-ball into on-ball action, the same attribute is creating her value.

Led by Head Coach Sandy Brondello, the New York Liberty insulate Ionescu’s skills perfectly, from general concepts like roster construction and spacing principles to giving their star guard a handful of opportunities each game to pick up easy layups off basic ‘UCLA’ cuts…

I covered this in my last Liberty piece for Swish Theory, but Jones and Breanna Stewart constitute the most skilled front-court in WNBA history possibly, from their versatility on the defensive end to their ability to screen, shoot, and pass on the offensive end. That, as you can see in the above clip, makes up for some of Ionescu’s shortcomings. She doesn’t have to roast her defender off the dribble because she can rely on Jones and Stewart to set good screens and hit her when she makes the proper cuts and relocations.

But what’s made Ionescu a top-flight offensive player in year five of her career, despite the immense talent of her ‘supporting’ cast, is her ability to access advantages, again and again and again. The last play I’ll show is the one most representative of her 2024 season to date, a clutch bucket against Connecticut Sun, the league’s second-best defense.

Connecticut takes away the simple UCLA cut for Ionescu, as the Liberty cycle through the set to get to a Sabrina-JJ handoff. Tyasha Harris does a great job sticking to Ionescu, the Liberty still have nothing. A re-set into a Ionescu-Jones pick-and-roll that doesn’t produce anything, then a seemingly innocuous handoff back to Ionescu with seven on the shot-clock. Harris relaxes for a split-second…she’s dead in the water:

Ionescu and the Liberty flow through a handful of opportunities to create an advantage with their star guard, and it’s the one that is, at the outset, the least threatening that Ionescu capitalizes on. She’s just jogging toward the sideline to retrieve the ball from Thornton, a non-threat off the dribble, but never lets Harris off her hip while waiting for the second defender to clear the area, ultimately finishing with a soft floater on the baseline.

Unlike the man she’s frequently been compared to, Steph Curry, Ionescu’s lineup constructions allow us to claim her as a combo guard. Her backcourt partners in 2024 are either Courtney Vandersloot — the Hall-of-Fame epitome of a pass-first, table-setting point guard — or Leonie Fiebich/Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, two players above six feet tall that nicely fit a ‘3-and-D’ description. That’s a different context than the one Curry has operated throughout his prime, always as the smallest player on the floor, forever a full-time point guard regardless of how often Draymond Green has the ball in his hands.

But it’s not lineup construction that should drive this discussion, it’s looking at how Ionescu creates and maintains advantages regardless of who is on the floor with her. We often discuss the merits of a player’s on-ball and off-ball value separately, but Ionescu makes that impossible. The beauty and efficacy of her offensive game isn’t just all the various things she’s good at, but how they stack on top of each other.

Despite what Positive Residual’s impact metrics say, Sabrina Ionescu probably isn’t the best player in the world right now, and that’s okay. She might just have to settle for being the best combo guard alive, and that is one hell of a player.

The post Sabrina Ionescu Has Reclaimed the Glory of the Combo Guard appeared first on Swish Theory.

In Naphessa Collier’s first full season as the undoubted face of the franchise, she is already showing that she is more than up to the task. So what does Collier bring to the table? Luckily, a little bit of everything. 

Defense

A former college Defensive Player of the Year for the AAC and All-Defensive second-teamer, Collier truly brings it on both ends of the floor. She can capably stay in front of wings and bigs. Up for any challenge, there is no one that Phee is afraid to pester. For instance, she is willing to go right at Brittney Griner, take the rebound from her, and wall her off to get the ball to a teammate.

Against the best team in the league, she is regularly tasked with guarding the reigning MVP. That does not mean she will not switch. Here, for example, she swings from the Wilson to a driving Candace Parker. The result does not go CP’s way. 

She is a disruptor. Collier finished in the top five in steals in both of her first two seasons and is currently in the top 10 again. Add in two top 10 blocks per game seasons as well, and Collier has the statistical resume to complement the eye test. And trust that the eye test shows the disruption even more. 

As the young team is coalescing around their star, this defensive mentality is essential. Collier embodies the hard work that has helped the Minnesota Lynx return to .500 this season after starting 0-6. Three of their top six minutes loggers have less than three years of experience, including rookies Dorka Juhasz and Diamond Miller. They are still far from a passable defensive team, but Collier does everything she can to change that nightly. 

Attacking and Scoring

Collier does not just bring the intensity to the defensive end of the floor. It should come as no surprise that Phee is currently fourth in the league in scoring. She is a relentless force. Being able to hang with the point totals of Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, and Arike Ogunbowale while not being a 3-point shooter (30.8 percent on 3.8 attempts per game) is a testament to this. 

Getting into the lane is the bread and butter of Napheesa Collier’s bag. She has a solid post up game, as evidenced below. Here she backs down A’ja Wilson, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, before fading away for the bucket. 

Even better, contact is not something that is going to slow her down. Beyond that, Collier often feels like she seeks it out. Currently fifth in the league in free throw attempts, Phee creates extra opportunities to benefit her team. 

It is not always about scoring though. Minnesota likes to move the ball around to find the right opportunity to strike. Phee is a major part of that, though her assist numbers do not necessarily reflect it. With so much ball movement the extra kick pass tends to devalue exactly what her impact is, but Napheesa Collier is indisputable. 

Cementing the Future

All of this builds to the most important aspect of Collier continuing to ascend with an additional focus on her. As mentioned before, this was a big draft for the Lynx. Diamond Miller looks to be a star in the making. While Aliyah Boston has likely sewn up Rookie of the Year, Miller has been doing her best to make that interesting. Dorka Juhasz continues to get more and more comfortable. 

In the five games since the All-Star break, Juhasz has averaged 10 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. Jessica Shepard is in her fourth season and recently returned to the lineup. If this is the young core of the future around Phee, the close to this season is essential. 

Luckily Collier is more than up to the task. She is a born leader and is ready to help make this team the best that it can be. This may be the most important lesson Fowles was able to teach. Being a star is not just about making yourself great and putting up gaudy numbers. Yes, Fowles’ stats are memorable. But even more so was her status as an unparalleled teammate. 

That is the culture of the Minnesota Lynx. Those great names all knew that. They lived for it. Napheesa Collier carries herself in much the same way. It will not be long before she leads the Lynx back to the top of the league.

The post Napheesa Collier: Leader of the Pack appeared first on Swish Theory.

“Bodies on the floor, carnage…and a bucket” was the play-by-play description for what could have been any given Alyssa Thomas highlight: Sensing an opportunity, she dove on the floor, nearly took out a ref, all to punch the ball ahead to a teammate for an easy transition two.  

Thomas’ play-style may be different than expected given her statistical output: she is a triple double machine, claiming seven of the most recent eight in the WNBA and the first ever back-to-back in history. She is reliable of a producer as you can find in basketball right now, first in the league in not just assists but also rebounds, steals.

Thomas combines the aesthetic peak of basketball with its most practical elements. She has access to all the creativity the sport has to offer, but is obsessed with finding the most direct route to do so.

Take this recent clip, for example. Facing a significant advantage on a jump ball and spotting a teammate with a lead to the open court, Alyssa straight-up volleyball spikes the ball.

Thomas produces across the court despite being a subpar scorer by efficiency. She puts up 15 points per game, mostly coming from her signature push-floater or bruising to the line. In spite of this, there is little she cannot do on the court. She thrives as the conductor of creative, functional offense, stalwart, buttressed by her rare combination of un-moveability off her spot and surprising mobility for her strength. It feels unfair to tie Thomas to any player comps, as she has adapted to a new basketball language of her very own.

AT is able to break down her opponents by accepting and having access to all kinds of possibilities. Calling Alyssa Thomas unpredictable feels like a misnomer, as she seems very aware of where she’s going ahead of time, but can’t tell you. In this way, she is unprecedented in her unpredictability. Playing against her must feel like the most complex cup game of all time, as at any given moment she can duck into the middle of the court to access her floater or a lay-in or pass – and this is key – fully fluent with either hand be it lobs, hit-aheads, pocket passes, you name it.

Let’s break down how she does it.

High-Value Assists

Thomas in particular is the queen of high-value assists. Always in control of pace and with the strength and handle to take her time, she waits for the right moment for daylight to open before hunting out not just a pedestrian pass, but one that will create a lay-up.

While most of her assists to open layups happen in transition, Thomas is able to create offense out of nothing simply due to her timing and passing accuracy, as well as using every tool available to her.

My favorite half-court assists of hers are offensive tips to her teammates: it only takes a moment of daylight for AT to knock the ball sideways to a nearby finisher. But she also is so savvy with her delivery of what would be otherwise pedestrian looks so as to make a player open simply by receiving it. This is how she is able to be a league-best conductor without her own primary scoring, but more weapons are arriving in the next sections.

Defense to Offense

This is why she’s a beast in transition as well, as trustworthy of a 3-on-2 or 2-on-1 break leader as you can find. I would be terrified to play poker against Alyssa, as she often is so far ahead of her opponent’s timing she is able to even pick up her dribble early, seemingly toying with the opponent to exaggerate her passing dominance.

The league leader in steals, Thomas does not have the best handle in the open court but is hyper-aware of the space she has to operate. The term proprioception comes to mind, meaning awareness of body in space, as she rotates at the perfect time to swipe the ball, all well setting up the fastbreak.

Once again her passing accuracy shines, as she would be an excellent quarterback: Thomas is urgent but never rushes, able to sling a hit-ahead just above opponent arms, softly landing in her teammates’ bread basket for the finish. It is difficult to write about these without sensationalist language, as she truly rarely forces it despite the frequency of transition possessions. You can’t force it if your accuracy is unmatched. We see this point validated in not just her league leading assist tally, but 95^th percentile assist to turnover rate of 2.96 to 1.

Screener to Screen Receiver:

This is where things get really fun. Thomas is not just strong, but perhaps the strongest in the entire league. At 6’2’’ and with a plus-plus wingspan, AT screens are as good as any at creating seams in the defense, and has the catch radius to get the ball back quickly after doing so. When you’re as accurate of a passer as Thomas is, and have as good of a sense of schematic timing, it only takes a correctly set screen to get things rolling.

Let’s write down the four options we see in this section’s clips:

• Fake dribble hand-off into pindown handoff screen, then catching on the roll to drop off to dunker spot
• HORNS hand-off to give and go, hitting cutter
• Pick to short roll to kick out
• Pick to receiving ball as roller to then hit cutter

Not included was her ability to use screens on occasion as well. What makes Thomas effective as a conductor is not just her accuracy, but ability to hit a body (cause carnage) and regain composure in an instant to find an open teammate. Combine that with the proprioception bit, ducking and diving through opponents in an instant, and you have an entire half-court offense. Her handle may not be enough to create open rim attempts every possession, but let her touch the ball twice, even in short sequence, and you’ll be much more open than before.

Safety Valve Offense

What takes Thomas to the peaks of the WNBA, however, is her scoring. I mentioned she is not the most efficient, as in the 27^th percentile for effective field goal percentage – quite bad! But that calculation does not include free throws, where Thomas is top 20 in the league in made free throws per game.

She is not just physical but seeks it out wherever she can, able to wedge space for herself where there doesn’t appear an angle. The free throw percentage is just okay at 73%, but, in combination with her ability to manufacture looks when she needs to, present her team with a last ditch “safety valve” option on offense.

Most famously, AT switched shooting from left to right after a mid-career shoulder injury. She is now capable of launching her signature push-floater from either shoulder, up to around the free throw line, when the rest of the offense stagnates. While her last resort scoring provides a valuable outlet for her team, it tanks her shooting, at its lowest mark from the field since her second season in the league.

Alyssa Thomas, The Leader

Alyssa Thomas is just now scratching the surface of what, well, Alyssa Thomas looks like as the primary conductor of an offense. While she branched out over the years next to former MVP Jonquel Jones, the Sun offense is now truly revolving around AT. Her combination of skills, whether it body control combined with physicality, creativity matched with passing accuracy, or simply bouldering through traffic to the rim, Thomas not only maximizes her own tools but those of her teammates.

That is where we see the Sun, unfortunately losing Brionna Jones for the year, compensating with the surging DiJonai Carrington and Rebecca Allen, finding her footing. DeWanna Bonner upping her three point volume. Natisha Hiedman struggling so far but still contributing with passing and occasional tough shotmaking. It is tough to count out the Sun, and Alyssa Thomas + a crew of toolsy complements is why.

The post Alyssa Thomas: Carnage and a Bucket appeared first on Swish Theory.

When a player makes it past that point and starts showing signs of promise, it feels like it may finally be their time. Dijonai Carrington had started to find her way in her first two seasons. She played in 60 games over two years. The team picked up her option, tying her to the team through the next two years should they so choose. And yet, Carrington had only played two minutes through the first three games of the season. Even with playing time picking up a little recently, the questions remain.

After two years with the Connecticut Sun, Carrington felt like a fixture off the bench for this team. Then, the organization picked up her option. However, the minutes consistency is not there. This led to me posing the following question to head coach Stephanie White:

As an answer, this is mostly non-information. But given the quibbles one can make with it, there are places for Carrington to go, whether in Connecticut or elsewhere.

Answers Lead to More Questions

Stephanie White gave the appropriate level of coach speak when addressing this question while also providing a valid point. Connecticut reshaped its roster drastically over the offseason and brought in three new wing contributors: Tiffany Hayes, Ty Harris, and Rebecca Allen. This combined with the injury Carrington was dealing with in the winter months can contribute to a slower start to the season.

The issue arises when noticing that Carrington fits the current team more than two of those players. There is no issue with Hayes being in front of her. Hayes is shooting 41.4 percent on 4.1 long-distance attempts per game. She has an All-Star, go-to scorer ceiling that this team needs. Ty Harris and Bec Allen, however, are not the same.

Harris has been a guard with promise since being drafted seventh overall in 2020 by the Dallas Wings. Over three seasons in Dallas she averaged just 16.9 minutes per game, with the number actually going down year by year. Allen was brought in as a 3-point sniper who, through her first seven games, was shooting 31.3 percent on 2.3 attempts per game. If she is not bringing this, she does not bring much else to the court.

Carrington, on the other hand, brings a lot of what this team has come to embody. She currently plays with the highest pace on the team. As someone who contributes on both ends of the floor she has shown time and again that she thrives in the system built around Alyssa Thomas. But what could this look like elsewhere?

What She Could Bring to Another Team

Rebounding and Unselfishness

It was easy to get lost in the shuffle on this end given that she played with the likes of Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and Brionna Jones. That being said, Carrington was one of the best rebounding guards in the league last year. She boasted the sixth-highest rebounding rate among guards (9.2%) and was fourth in offensive rebounding rate (6.1%).

This is owed in large part to the fact that she never stops fighting. She uses her length and effort to outrebound anyone in her way. Even better, it rarely leads to her forcing up a bad putback. Carrington is a team player through and through. She is always looking for the cutter or open shooter before taking her own shots.

Energy like this is infectious and it endeared her to her teammates and coaching staff last year. Even with a new coach in place, this should still carry over. Carrington never stops being active and can score in a variety of ways. She can shoot and cut without requiring too high of a usage rate. This is invaluable for a team with four All-Star caliber players. Carrington came into the league wanting to win and play her role. If that shows on offense, it shines even brighter on the other end of the floor.

Defensive Activity

The activity being contagious is the name of the game for Carrington and she truly brings it on the defensive end. As one of the bigger wings on the team, Carrington is often tasked with being the point of attack and she immediately brings pressure often.

Picking up the Rookie of the Year as soon as she crosses the court is important here. The lead guard for Connecticut, Natisha Hiedeman, gives up six inches to Howard and does not have the length to fully bother her. While Carrington still gives up a little height, her effort is obvious. Turning offense into defense is a calling card and Carrington gets out in transition because of the effort she puts in.

Where From Here?

Usually, effort is what it takes to earn a coach’s trust, even more than statistical output. Perhaps it is only a matter of time (and healing from the offseason as White alluded to). Minutes for Carrington have crept over the last few games. If she is given the time, she is going to make an impact. For a team with such a high payroll, finding value in the margins is the way the roster gets taken over the top.

Carrington should be a part of this team’s future. If she is not, she will find a place in this league. Her nonstop effort and grit will not allow her to be left behind. You can bet on that.

The post Free DiJonai appeared first on Swish Theory.

The best way to finish off a season preview series is through predictions. It gives me as a writer a way to get my final thoughts out there. Also, it gives me the means to hold myself accountable when I get plenty wrong this year. So today I will be predicting the awards, standings, and champions ahead. Let’s get started:

First-Time All-Stars – Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith

The All-Star Game rarely lends itself to new entrants. With such a high concentration of the top players in the league, it is tough to break through into the hallowed top 24. However, with so many players joining forces on a super team and a couple of notable stars retiring last year, there is little room to break through. 

It is astounding Allisha Gray has not broken through before. She has in every sense other than a labeled accolade. As a 3-point sniper and transition attacker, Gray brings an offensive variability that the Dream will truly appreciate. Her defensive acumen fits well on the fifth-rated defense from last year. She will finally get her recognition. 

Kelsey Mitchell should have been an All-Star last year. At the end of the year, she finished sixth in scoring. Through the All-Star break, Mitchell averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists while nailing 42.2 percent of her long-distance attempts. If Indiana had a better reputation across the league she would have been an easy inclusion. 

Even if they do not, two of their players are going to make it impossible to ignore that this season. Mitchell is going to benefit from plenty of open looks given the reshaping of the roster. Their record will not matter if she is pushing for the scoring title. The other, bridges the gap to the next section, while I also believe she will make her first All-Star appearance. 

Most Improved Player – NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith could easily have gotten lost in the shuffle last year. The Indiana Fever were not much talked about. The player drafted just in front of her, Rhyne Howard, took the league by storm and made the All-Star Game as a rookie. 

Smith was no one’s afterthought. She finished sixth in overall rebounds and proved to be a double-double machine. She then went on to Athletes Unlimited and earned the top award in the league. She is ready to grow and take the next step. 

Playing next to Aliyah Boston (more on her later) is only going to make things easier for the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Quietly Indiana is amassing an interesting grouping of talent and Smith is going to clearly benefit from it this season. It is easy to imagine her leading the league in rebounding and double-doubles. Yes, Boston will rebound in her own right, but Queen Egbo did that last year and Smith was undeterred. 

Smith is not the kind of celebrated star that destroys highlight reels. Her work is dirty, but effective. It is why she made sense next to Mitchell’s explosive scoring. This will also behoove her to grow alongside a face of a franchise like Boston. Fans of the game, however, will appreciate the growth she makes next year. 

Coach of the Year – Eric Thibault

If you have been keeping up with my previews, you are already fully aware of how high I am on the Washington Mystics. They did not necessarily have the starry offseason that others did, but their team is absolutely loaded with elite talent. Mike Thibault, the former champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, stepped down during the offseason. This made way for his son to step up and continue the legacy.

The younger Thibault has been with the organization for a decade and has paid his dues. Coming into a team that is as established benefits from hiring a coach from within that has been along for the highs (2019 championship) and lows (missing the playoffs in 2016 and 2021). Thibault is going to be awesome in this role. 

Elena Delle Donne being on the court more regularly will make Washington one of the feel-good stories of the season. The best defensive team from a season ago added Brittney Sykes to make life even worse for opponents. Shakira Austin is going to be even better. So much feels like it is leading to big things for Washington this season and Thibault seems like the most likely individual to be recognized. 

Sixth Player of the Year – Tiffany Mitchell

This may quickly look foolish if the Minnesota Lynx end up starting Tiffany Mitchell more often than not. However, she has all of the tools to be one of the most effective spark plugs off the bench in the league. In the two preseason games, she came off the bench once and proceed to lead the team in scoring. 

After starting less than half the games in her seven seasons in Indiana, Mitchell came to the Lynx for a bigger role. Even if that comes off the bench, Mitchell is ready to show plenty more. She took a step further as a shooter last season, drilling 38.7 percent of her long-distance attempts. The sample size was small, but if that continues she will likely lead the league in bench scoring. 

While this award is typically tough to predicate, having last season’s winner and runner-up move into starting roles, as well as past winners like Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby out of the running. This is a new direction for the award and someone is going to pop off in a new way. Mitchell is ready to shine in the new role. 

Rookie of the Year – Aliyah Boston

This is no disrespect to anyone else involved. I am a big Haley Jones fan. Diamond Miller is going to get a ton of opportunities with the Lynx to shine and will benefit from Napheesa Collier being there more than last season. However, this is Aliyah Boston’s award to lose. 

It is easy to forget that Boston suffered a leg injury last year that took some of the bloom off the rose of her as a prospect. Before that, she was considered a generational talent that fans were ready for their teams to build around. That has not changed despite the continued meteoric rise of Caitlin Clark. Boston is everything a team should want to build around. 

As a junior, Boston averaged 16.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Those numbers are clearly absurd. She will not be playing next to an All-Star-level power forward and a lethal scorer on the perimeter. Her life is going to be made easier than most number-one picks get to benefit from. 

We are in a special run of top picks. Rhyne Howard transformed a franchise. The future drafts are being hyped to another level. Boston is absolutely on that level and is going to be part of the Fever turnaround in earnest. 

Defensive Player of the Year – Brittney Sykes

This is past due. Yes, it is tough for guards to win this award. The only guards or guard/forwards to ever win it are Teresa Weatherspoon (twice), Sheryl Swoopes (three times), Debbie Black, and Alana Beard (twice). However, if there was ever someone to break that mold it is Brittney Sykes. 

Among starters who played at least 20 games, Sykes was second in steal rate. She has led the league in steals for two straight seasons and made three consecutive All-Defensive teams. Furthermore, Sykes just brought home the WNBL Defensive Player of the Year. This run of defensive dominance needs to be recognized at the highest level. 

The quiet part is that she is joining a roster loaded with defensive stalwarts. Four of the top 15 players in defensive win shares are on this team. Shakira Austin is going to be the anchor behind the rest holding everything together. This will allow Sykes to be her full bulldog self. 

MVP – Breanna Stewart

This pick breaks tradition. Since 2017, the MVP has been awarded to someone on the team with the best record in the league. While I will not be picking the New York Liberty to finish the regular season with the best record, it is going to be close. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were close last season (and have been for the last few years, even when Jonquel Jones won). They are likely to remain close in contention for this award as long as they remain in the league. 

So when picking between the two of them, I decided to focus on a different historical trend. No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Cynthia Cooper took home the first two. Both of these players are playing with even more loaded teams than they have had in years past. They are both going to put up ridiculous numbers. 

Going one step further, I would predict the top three finalists to be Stewart, Wilson, and Rhyne Howard. Howard is going to be even better and the Atlanta Dream are going to push for home-court advantage in the first round. It is not too early to appreciate what kind of killer she is about to be.

Standings

1. Las Vegas
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Connecticut
5. Atlanta
6. Los Angeles
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix 
9. Minnesota
10. Chicago
11. Seattle
12. Indiana

Finals Prediction: Las Vegas Aces over the Washington Mystics

Nothing really to see here. Washington is my sleeper team of the season. However, if the bracket breaks that they have to go through both Las Vegas and New York without home court for either series, imaging coming out on top of both of those series is tough. 

These standings could be broken down into different tiers. The top three teams, to me, are the only true title contenders. Connecticut is close and remains pesky, but no one would really pick them to finish off the deal. Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas feel like they are headed in the right direction but not necessarily good enough to get out of the first round. 

Phoenix could be the last playoff seed and everyone will be rooting for Brittney Griner’s return to the court. However, the overall roster feels more in line with the other also-rans. A few impressive individual talents but not quite on the level of the actual good teams.

The post WNBA Season Predictions appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. The final preview is finally here and it is for the reigning champions, the title favorites, the true face of the league. Of course, I am referring to the Las Vegas Aces. Somehow, even after a stunning season, the team got even better. But before looking forward, let’s look back.

Almost everything went absolutely perfectly for the Las Vegas Aces a season ago. The featured player section this week should surprise no one, so we will get into A’ja Wilson’s accomplishments shortly. 

2022 Recap

Kelsey Plum exploded, realizing the potential she always hinted at with her play. She finished second in the league in scoring, posting a line of 20.2 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game. In her first All-Star season, she was the All-Star MVP. 

Speaking of realized potential, goodness gracious Jackie Young took a step forward. She posted career highs across the board:  15.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Encouraged by new coach Becky Hammon, Young realized she was allowed to step behind the arc and let it fly. She attempted a career-high 3.4 per game and converted at a 43.1 percent clip. That is the second-best mark in the league for anyone attempting at least three per game (minimum 10 games). 

Chelsea Gray is the last player that got significant minutes that truly stood out, but man did she. The Point Gawd reached another stratosphere in the postseason, leading the team in points (21.7), assists (7.0), and steals (1.2) per game. This was the true difference-maker for the team overall. As the benches shortened and they were going for their first title, Gray stepped into a role she had not been asked to fill all season. 

Benches shortened is not a misnomer by the way. Only six players for the Aces logged more the 8.5 minutes per game in the postseason. That seventh player, Dearica Hamby, was once an integral part of this organization. The news around her treatment and departure from Vegas soured some of the good feelings. As there is still an ongoing investigation it is tough to comment broadly. But the Big Guard definitely deserved much better. 

Best in the World

If there was any debate or doubt, A’ja Wilson confirmed last season that she is the best player in the world. Yes, Breanna Stewart is tremendous and will continue to challenge the throne. But Wilson’s campaign was unassailable. 

Awards season was basically Aces season and Wilson brought home two of her own. The former Gamecock won her second MVP and her first Defensive Player of the Year, definitively outlining her two-way dominance. During the regular season, she averaged 19.5 points (fifth), 9.4 rebounds (second), 2.1 assists, 1.9 blocks (first), and 1.4 steals (12th) per game. At long last, like Jackie Young, Wilson was unleashed to let it fly from beyond the arc. The result, chef’s kiss.

Wilson truly blocked out the sun on one end of the court while remaining the definitive best player on the offensive end. Yes, Plum averaged more points per game. Even she would bow to the M’VP and acknowledge she was able to thrive because of the gravity of her teammate and the offensive game plan. Wilson is such a brilliant player that makes everyone around them better and is a true culture setter. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Dearica Hamby, Ji-Su Park, Iliana Rupert, Theresa Plaisance, Aisha Sheppard

In: Candace Parker, Alysha Clark

Re-Signed: Sydney Colson, Kiah Stokes

While this looks like a lot of names out and very few names in, that is exceptionally misleading. Hamby is an enormous loss but was almost completely out of the rotation during the title run. Again, the circumstances around her departure need to be looked into far more, but that is not for me to speculate. Sheppard, Plaisance, Park, and Rupert combined to log 85 minutes in the postseason. 

Adding Candace Parker and Alysha Clark, though, took the term super team to another level entirely. Clark is easy to forget about, as she was not quite herself coming off an injury last season. However, if she can get closer to form, having her as your sixth-best player is wild. Adding her to the third-best defensive unit that was lacking a lockdown wing is unfair. 

There is nothing else to say about Candace Parker that has not already been said. One of the absolute best of all time is joining the reigning champions to pursue another ring. She has shown in her two seasons in Chicago that she is willing to sacrifice individual numbers for team success. There is so much playmaking on this team already, and Parker only pushes that further. This team is going to be a joy to watch. 

Prediction

It should come as no surprise if Las Vegas finds themselves back in the WNBA Finals. Becky Hammon came to this organization (and stiff-armed NBA rumors this offseason) to build the next dynasty. Adding two championship-level pieces to their existing core is a home run. While they will walk away with less hardware individually this season, they will be back in the Finals.

The post Las Vegas Aces: 2023 Season Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. We move on to the team that for much of last season, everyone gave the benefit of the doubt. Coming off a title run on a .500 season, it was easy to assume everything would eventually click. 

For the 2022 Chicago Sky, the click never quite came at the highest level. 

2022 Recap

That may feel like a harsh statement for a team that finished with the best record in the league. Their advanced metrics, however, told the story of a team that was destined to come up short. They finished third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. 

There were flashes of brilliance. Emma Meesseman was everything the team hoped for when they secured her out of nowhere. Azura Stevens took a noticeable leap, becoming one of the best bench players in the league. Courtney Vandersloot and Candace Parker are timeless. Kahleah Copper (more on her shortly) continued to cement herself as the face of this team. 

The inconsistencies reared their head at the worst possible time. After finishing the season 3-3 in August, the playoffs started with a surprising loss to the upstart New York Liberty. They were able to ultimately weather the storm, but the Sun were too much for them. Then came the rebuild.

Offseason Overview

Out: Candace Parker, Allie Quigley, Azura Stevens, Courtney Vandersloot, Julie Allemand, Emma Meesseman 

In: Elizabeth Williams, Courtney Williams, Isabelle Harrison, Marina Mabrey, Alanna Smith

Re-Signed: Astou Ndour-Fall, Rebekah Gardner

2023 Draft: Kayana Traylor, Kseniya Malashka

Watching four starters and two of the top reserves leave in one off-season would be crippling for any franchise. Candace Parker did what she came home to do, Courtney Vandersloot watched her wife step away and went elsewhere to continue to pursue winning. Azura Stevens is ready to be a starter in her own right. 

To their credit, Chicago did what they could to bring in talent. They gave up a lot to bring in Marina Mabrey: two first-round picks, swap rights on another first-rounder, two second-round picks, a third-round pick, and the rights to Leonie Fiebich. Mabrey came a long way in recent seasons with Dallas. She will have to continue on an All-Star trajectory to benefit her new backcourt mate. Elizabeth Williams is a steady hand and will provide depth behind fellow newcomer Isabelle Harrison. Courtney Williams, for better or worse, is not afraid of any moment. 

Perhaps the best move they made, though, was bringing back Rebekah Gardner. As a 32-year-old rookie, Gardner became a quick favorite of many for her tenacious defense and smart playmaking. She will be essential for the team if they hope to make a return to the postseason. 

However, no one is more important than Kahleah Copper. 

Her Team Now

From the moment she signed her new contract with the team following the title, Kahleah Copper was confirmed to be the future face of this team. She was rightfully the Finals MVP on a team loaded with standouts. This season, she was even better. 

Copper posted career highs across the board: 15.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. She knocked down 35.6 percent of her career-high 3.3 3-point attempts per game. But her aggression remains her defining factor. 

Tenacity is an understatement. She attacks the rim with reckless abandon no matter who is in front of her. She is able to be patient and wait to draw in defenders. Then she attacks and makes everyone pay for whatever mistake they may make. 

As good as she is in the half-court, attacking in transition might be her greatest strength. It was what Candace Parker noted in her immediately after coming to the team. She unlocked the All-Star potential in Copper and the latter is never looking back. Now, she is going to be relied upon to be the definitive number one option on a team. This season will be fascinating to watch her grow. 

Prediction 

Despite their best efforts to rebuild on the fly around Copper, this is going to be a down season. While the rest of the league is getting better, Chicago is noticeably much worse than they were a season ago. If everything breaks exactly right they may be able to sneak into the back end of the playoffs, but I would bet against it. 

For the fans of developing talent, though, this could be fun. Dana Evans has shown flashes in her two seasons and will be tasked with a much larger workload. Ruthy Hebard was a college standout and may finally get a chance to take a step forward. While this may come with a 10-seed, that is also part of the process.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. After a surprise run to the WNBA Finals, the mood in Connecticut should be positive. However, with so much off-season turnover, the question remains. Is the Sun setting?

2022 Recap

It was always going to be a weird year. Three years ago, Alyssa Thomas was the top option with Jonquel Jones taking off the bubble season. In 2021, AT missed the season and Jones skyrocketed to MVP status. With both sharing the court for the full season, combined with the continued emergence of Brionna Jones, it was time to see how everyone looked together.

The results are more complicated than normal and tend to depend on the angle from which you want to look. One win out of the top seed in the league, the Sun finished second in offensive and defensive rating. Even with Jasmine Thomas missing all but five games, the Sun were as elite as ever. 

That being said, they were not without question marks. Coming off an MVP, Jonquel Jones did not look the same. Her numbers went down across the board: 14.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals per game. As good as she was a season before, this team reverted to being Alyssa Thomas’ team.

The mixed bag continued throughout the roster. Jasmine Thomas was missed for most of the season, Natisha Hiedeman cemented herself as a starter. DeWanna Bonner continued to see her numbers drop. Bri Jones, per 36 minutes, continued to ascend. 

As always, the most important member of the team was Alyssa Thomas. The Engine takes Connecticut to another level.

Total Eclipse

Alyssa Thomas was a revelation for much of the year. Her stats often do not tell the full story. Averaging 13.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.7 steals…those numbers are good, but not the normal stats you would see from an MVP candidate. 

Watching from game to game, however, it is easy to see. She did not earn the nickname “Engine” by accident. Everything ran through her. When Jasmine Thomas went out, AT became the de facto point guard, despite often sharing the court with Hiedeman.

The only player that did not seem to immediately get better from the usage rate of Thomas was the reigning MVP. Figuring out how to balance both of them was a consistent concern for former head coach Curt Miller. It worked well enough, obviously, given the run to the Finals. But there were notable times, even in the playoffs, when things were bristling. Which led to plenty of change during the offseason.

Offseason Overview

Out: Jonquel Jones, Jasmine Thomas, Courtney Williams, Joyner Holmes, Odyssey Sims

In: Rebecca Allen, Tyasha Harris, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Lauren Cox (training camp), Tiffany Hayes

Re-Signed: Brionna Jones, Natisha Hiedeman

2023 Draft: Alexis Morris, Ashten Prechtel 

Included but not outlined above, Curt Miller leaving as the leader of this team is a drastic shift. He won 60 percent or more of games in five of his seven seasons. He made two trips to the Finals. It will be tough for new coach Stephanie White to replicate. With a Finals appearance on her own resume, however, she stands a chance. 

The rest of the roster is notably different. There is no replacing a player like Jonquel Jones, but more clearly outlining the roles for Thomas and Bri Jones will do wonders. Courtney Williams was not a great fit on the team, and turning her place on the roster into depth should go a long way. 

Rebecca Allen is a career 36.9 percent shooter from distance, a boon for the team that attempted the second fewest triples in the league last season. Tyasha Harris is worth investing time in as a backup guard who never go enough of a chance in Dallas. Olivia Nelson-Ododa is an exciting young big who looked good in limited minutes in LA last year. If Lauren Cox makes the team, they will be a fun pair of bigs off the bench. 

Tiffany Hayes is the big swing of the offseason though. The former All-Star could have easily made her second appearance last season and comes in as the most dynamic scorer on the current roster. Fit is already drastically improved on this roster from a season ago and Hayes is going to thrive. 

Prediction: 

Tell me if you have heard this before: the Connecticut Sun will make the WNBA Semi-Finals. They will remain an elite defense while improving offensively. Alyssa Thomas will get the MVP while continuing to climb up the all-time triple-doubles list. While a title still feels unlikely, they will remain in the conversation.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. Getting into the real contenders, do not sleep on the Washington Mystics. They flew under the radar for much of last season before entering the postseason with a momentum that was only halted by one last flash from a franchise icon. Now, they might be even better. 

2022 Recap

As one of the class franchises in the league, there was hype coming into the 2022 season. Sure, there was some concern over the health of franchise icon Elena Delle Donne. The former two-time MVP had only played three games since winning a title in 2019, so it was tough to know what to expect. 

EDD played 25 of 36 games and competed at an All-Star level (despite being snubbed). She averaged 17.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game. As one of the most efficient two-way stars of any era, Delle Donne was a standout for a team full of them. 

Natasha Cloud led the league in assists and took another step forward as one of the best guards in the league. Ariel Atkins was the team’s lone All-Star and did a little bit of everything for the team. 

All in all, what ended up being coach Mike Thibault’s final season was a fun one. Washington was a problem for every team on a nightly basis and posted the best defensive rating in the league. If they had finished a little higher in the standings they would have presented problems for any of the higher seeds in a second-round outing. 

The veteran core is impressive enough. Add in the rookie dynamo that wreaked havoc last season, and look out. 

Rookie Wall Who?

As someone who picked Shakira Austin to win Rookie of the Year last year, the impressive start to her career was no surprise. Despite coming into the season expected to be a reserve on a team with talented bigs, Austin could not be denied for long. It only took two weeks for her to break into the starting lineup and never look back. 

Austin is a transformational defensive force. She can block out the sun and rotate with ease, locking down any section of the floor the team needs her to. Given the elite defensive talent on the roster, this adaptability obviously endeared her to teammates and the coaching staff alike. 

Her offensive game is even more refined than many expected coming out of college. There was always the expectation that she would be able to turn into a two-way force, but being able to compete with legends in year one was a nice surprise. 

Perhaps more important, Austin developed chemistry up and down the roster. Myisha Hines-Allen is one of the few other young players on the roster to get significant minutes. They pair well off the bench and unlock each other’s offensive games. 

This season will be a big opportunity for Austin. Washington has doubled down on its defensive identity. Austin, in my eyes, will be a Defensive Player of the Year within the next few seasons. This season will work to build that reputation while also refining her offensive game on a team that will only need her to be, on most nights, the third option at best. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Rui Machida, Alysha Clark, Elizabeth Williams

In: Brittney Sykes, Amanda Zahui B.

Re-Signed: Shatori Walker-Kimbrough, Tianna Hawkins

2023 Draft: Elena Tsineke, Txell Alarcon

With Mike Thibault leaving the team, it is now his son Eric’s time to take the lead. Luckily for him, this team looks even better than last year. Alysha Clark was not quite herself coming off her the injury that caused her to miss her first season with the team. Rui Machida was a nice spark off the bench, but the team can manage. Elizabeth Williams is a pro’s pro, but again, replaceable. 

Brittany Sykes is arguably the best defender in the league and will no longer be required to always be the best defender on her own team. A potential line-up of Atkins-Sykes-Cloud-Delle-Donne-Austin would be a monster to deal with on both sides of the ball. If they only play two of the guards, newly acquired Amanda Zahui B. could make for an interesting two-big pairing. 

It is impossible to talk about the draft without talking about the Stephanie Soares trade, not just from a Mystics’ standpoint, but for the league overall. This is the culmination of a multi-year asset amalgamation. 

Last year, Washington traded from one to three (landing Austin) while giving up another first this year to add swap rights this year. Then they moved this pick for a second in 2024 and a first in the loaded 2025 class. Moving out of the first round of a draft many are unimpressed with for one that teams are salivating to get into should be applauded. 

Prediction: 

It would come as a surprise to no one if Washington is able to make a run to the Finals. While they may not have had as splashy of free agency periods as New York and Las Vegas, this is a loaded roster. 

Austin is going to make a push to make her first All-Star Game. Sykes, Delle Donne, Cloud and Atkins will all have cases as well. Washington will have the best defense in the league again. Delle Donne will return to 50/40/90 form. Finally, DC will ruin the dream FInals, knocking off one of the presumptive favorites.

The post Washington Mystics: 2023 Season Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. This week, the Dallas Wings are under the microscope. After winning the first playoff game since moving to Texas, stability and positivity should overflow with the Wings.

If you believe that, you do not know the Dallas Wings. 

2022 Recap

Dallas, like New York, has been looked at as one of the teams on the precipice for a few seasons. After drafting Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally in consecutive drafts before adding the top two picks in 2021 (Charli Collier and Awak Kuier), Dallas looked to be building for the future. 

Last season, Kuier, Collier, and Sabally played a combined 200 minutes less (733) than Ogunbowale (941) last season. Sabally, as has unfortunately been common, missed plenty of time due to injury. The second-year bigs, however, struggled to gain the consistent trust of then-coach Vickie Johnson. 

The season turned for the better when they moved offseason acquisition Teaira McCowan into the starting lineup full-time. Before the move, Dallas was 10-13 on the season with offensive e ratings of 101.6. Over the last 13 games, the Wings won eight and improved to an offensive rating of 110.0, second best in the league over that span. 

Allisha Gray, Kayla Thornton, and Isabelle Harrison brought their typical veteran excellence to a team that needed every bit of it. Marina Mabrey became a full-time starter and a knockdown sniper. But there was always something hanging over the team. A cult of personality, if you will. 

Arike’s World, For Better or Worse

Arike Ogunbowale is an exceptional offensive talent. She has never finished outside the top five in scoring, leading the league in her second season. Disruptive in passing lanes, Ogunbowale also forces plenty of turnovers. She is one of the marquee tough shot makers in the league. 

She is also just a bit reckless. Her shot selection leaves something to be desired. Taking the most shots per game of anyone in the league, Ogunbowale had a good season this year, shooting just 40 percent from the field. 

This Dallas team needs a leader at the center, and Arike, at least through her age 25 season, has improvements to be made on that front. Whether it be dumping water bottles on the floor or kicking everything in sight (basketballs, commentary desks, pick your poison), Ogunbowale was a regular topic of discussion for the wrong reasons. As someone who is supposed to be the leader of a team, this is obviously a suboptimal look. As reports grew that Vickie Johnson was not in control and both Gray and Harrison indicated they wanted out, something more stable would have gone a long was to building beyond the last month of the season. Alas, it was not meant to be. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Tyasha Harris, Kayla Thornton, Allisha Gray, Isabelle Harrison, Marina Mabrey

In: Natasha Howard, Crystal Dangerfield, Diamond DeShields, Kitija Laksa

Re-Signed: Tierra McCowan

2023 Draft: #3, #5, #11, #19, #31

Obviously, this is a fair bit of roster turnover for a team that seemed to have found itself over the last third of the season. Gray and Harrison made it clear that they would not be back. As much as they will be missed, ending up with the third pick in the draft plus a future first is a boon. 

Thornton has been the defensive anchor for this team, but turning her and Ty Harris into All-Star Natasha Howard and Crystal Dangerfield was an intriguing move. Howard can be just as impactful defensively and should pair well with Ogunbowale should she become a more active passer. 

Marina Mabrey will be missed. She grew into quite a shooter getting paired over the last two seasons with her college teammate. Again, though, signing and trading her for multiple first-round picks and Diamond DeShields is smart. DeShields was clear that she was still going through plenty last season. If she is able to recapture any of her All-Star form this is a strict upgrade for the Wings. 

Yet again, they have control of the draft. With three first-round picks, they could cheaply fill out the rest of their roster and continue building the foundation for the future. Howard and DeShields are high-quality additions who have won at the highest level. With new head coach Latricia Trammell finally getting her shot to run a team, things may be looking up.

Prediction

Dallas is going to continue to improve. If Arike Ogunbowale can embrace the leadership role her supporting case needs, she could become one of the faces of this league. Her brand of hero ball is not for everyone, but it can be electric. Howard, DeShields, McCowan, and Sabally provide plenty of help. 

Even if the overall product is better, Dallas is still unlikely to move up the standings much. Satou Sabally will be healthier than in years past and will push for her second All-Star appearance. Awak Kuier will dunk in a game. Charli Collier will be moved this season. Haley Jones, who I predict will be drafted third overall, will finish second in Rookie of the Year. Despite another early playoff exit, Dallas may be on the right track.

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