That’s not what’s happening in 2024, despite Ionescu’s first appearance on the women’s basketball Olympic team and the release of the second volume of her signature shoe. Rather, compared to the first four seasons of her career, she’s flying under the radar, a mere star to the public rather than a superstar, though her impact metrics are starting to vouch for the opposite.

Ionescu currently ranks first in Positive Residual’s Estimated Contributions metric, or ‘EC,’ ahead of teammate Breanna Stewart, A’ja Wilson, and the rest of the W. For the first time in her career, she is not grading out as a stark negative on defense, while easily soaring to the highest offensive EC number in the database.

In many ways, those numbers match the tape, particularly on defense, where Ionescu has clearly improved from awful to mediocre. But while that is indeed a vital jump for the New York Liberty, that’s not what I’m here to discuss.

I’m here to expand on what I wrote in this mid-season article on Ionescu’s offensive leap for the Libs, which has been the story of their season through 25 games. Here’s the SparkNotes version: After turning in one of the all-time great 3-point seasons by any professional player, shooting 44.8% on 9.6 3PA per 75 possessions, she’s morphed into far more of an offensive initiator in 2024. This is in part out of necessity, with backcourt partners Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton missing significant time this season, and in part because Ionescu is just better at handling the ball.

Her 3-point percentage is down to 35.6% thanks to a mix of natural regression and a weightier offensive load featuring more off-the-dribble attempts, but her two-point percentage is up from 38.3% in 2023 to 49.7% this year. That’s a trade-off New York is willing to make, and a result of stark improvement in her ball-handling skills. She’s patiently waiting out traps, splitting and swerving through hedges, or getting her shoulder into her primary defender. Whether applied by individual defenders or as a team, physicality and pressure is not phasing Ionescu in 2024. She keeps her dribble alive, and all of that is resulting in easier offense for her in the paint, by way of two-point shooting and passing.

It’s not like the 2020 #1 overall pick is a completely different player this year. There are signs of the play-finishing god that helped make the Liberty’s offense unstoppable last season, when she would set a bunch of screens and then come off some more, only for Vandersloot to deliver her the ball for an open three. Ionescu feasted on screen-the-screener actions in 2023, and New York still utilizes those for her in 2024…

Thus, she has become a savior of the dreaded ‘combo guard’ label, often applied to players as a last resort, as a prayer rather than as a positional designation for players missing one crucial skill.

In 2024, Ionescu has clarified the power of the combo guard by toggling between on-ball and off-ball excellence, not just within a season or even a game, but a possession. She doesn’t just have the ability to thrive with or without the ball in her hands, but the ability to blend both of those skill-areas so as to make their borders indistinguishable.

For example, she is one of the most prolific handoff-receivers in the game, as the dribble-handoff is a play-type perfectly suited to her strengths and weaknesses. As an on-ball creator, Ionescu isn’t the twitchiest athlete, missing the blazing first step of some of her contemporaries. However, she overcomes that by tapping into the off-ball movement skills we’ve known she’s had for a long time, the ones that helped produce her all-time 3-point shooting season in 2023.

Here, Jonquel Jones and Ionescu are aiming to set up a flare screen, but the pass goes to Jones which creates some confusion. However, Ionescu seamlessly springs into a handoff, a great cut that leaves defender Lindsay Allen in the dust…

Ionescu has created an advantage off-the-ball, which she then capitalizes on by hesitating around the hedge and whipping a live-dribble feed to Jones on the roll. Now, those are the on-ball skills that have shined for Ionescu this season, she’s just accessing them by way of her work away from the ball. (It should also be noted that the space she created from Allen allowed Jones to slip the screen early and get behind the defense.)

In the absence of elite burst, one of Sabrina’s notable strengths as an athlete is, well, her strength, specifically in her upper body. In 2023, she was one of the elite screen-setting guards in the WNBA, both for her willingness to get physical and her efficacy doing so. As a reward for her efforts, she got plenty of open 3-point looks, here bouncing off Emma Cannon after a bonafide collision like nothing happened:

When she isn’t handling the rock for New York in 2024, she’s still setting many of these screens. ‘Spain’ or ‘Stack’ action is a staple for the Liberty, with Ionescu often setting that back-screen on the roller and popping out to the 3-point line when the opportunity presents itself. On both of the following plays, the defense does well to shut down the initial action, but the ball finds its way into Sabrina’s hands, and guess what attribute shines when she decides to drive to the rim…

That’s right, her strength, as fellow Olympians Jewell Loyd and Kahleah Copper are each introduced to Ionescu’s right shoulder on their ride to the rim. Now, Ionescu isn’t setting hard screens there if she’s setting them at all, but her strength is undoubtedly a main reason she excels in those positions. As she flows from off-ball into on-ball action, the same attribute is creating her value.

Led by Head Coach Sandy Brondello, the New York Liberty insulate Ionescu’s skills perfectly, from general concepts like roster construction and spacing principles to giving their star guard a handful of opportunities each game to pick up easy layups off basic ‘UCLA’ cuts…

I covered this in my last Liberty piece for Swish Theory, but Jones and Breanna Stewart constitute the most skilled front-court in WNBA history possibly, from their versatility on the defensive end to their ability to screen, shoot, and pass on the offensive end. That, as you can see in the above clip, makes up for some of Ionescu’s shortcomings. She doesn’t have to roast her defender off the dribble because she can rely on Jones and Stewart to set good screens and hit her when she makes the proper cuts and relocations.

But what’s made Ionescu a top-flight offensive player in year five of her career, despite the immense talent of her ‘supporting’ cast, is her ability to access advantages, again and again and again. The last play I’ll show is the one most representative of her 2024 season to date, a clutch bucket against Connecticut Sun, the league’s second-best defense.

Connecticut takes away the simple UCLA cut for Ionescu, as the Liberty cycle through the set to get to a Sabrina-JJ handoff. Tyasha Harris does a great job sticking to Ionescu, the Liberty still have nothing. A re-set into a Ionescu-Jones pick-and-roll that doesn’t produce anything, then a seemingly innocuous handoff back to Ionescu with seven on the shot-clock. Harris relaxes for a split-second…she’s dead in the water:

Ionescu and the Liberty flow through a handful of opportunities to create an advantage with their star guard, and it’s the one that is, at the outset, the least threatening that Ionescu capitalizes on. She’s just jogging toward the sideline to retrieve the ball from Thornton, a non-threat off the dribble, but never lets Harris off her hip while waiting for the second defender to clear the area, ultimately finishing with a soft floater on the baseline.

Unlike the man she’s frequently been compared to, Steph Curry, Ionescu’s lineup constructions allow us to claim her as a combo guard. Her backcourt partners in 2024 are either Courtney Vandersloot — the Hall-of-Fame epitome of a pass-first, table-setting point guard — or Leonie Fiebich/Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, two players above six feet tall that nicely fit a ‘3-and-D’ description. That’s a different context than the one Curry has operated throughout his prime, always as the smallest player on the floor, forever a full-time point guard regardless of how often Draymond Green has the ball in his hands.

But it’s not lineup construction that should drive this discussion, it’s looking at how Ionescu creates and maintains advantages regardless of who is on the floor with her. We often discuss the merits of a player’s on-ball and off-ball value separately, but Ionescu makes that impossible. The beauty and efficacy of her offensive game isn’t just all the various things she’s good at, but how they stack on top of each other.

Despite what Positive Residual’s impact metrics say, Sabrina Ionescu probably isn’t the best player in the world right now, and that’s okay. She might just have to settle for being the best combo guard alive, and that is one hell of a player.

The post Sabrina Ionescu Has Reclaimed the Glory of the Combo Guard appeared first on Swish Theory.

The smallness of the players isn’t what matters in these lineups, when effective, but their skill, like wing-sized players bringing more 3-point shooting than most bigs, or guard-sized players bringing more ball-handling than more wings. A bunch of defenders who, because of their quicker foot-speed, can all defend on the perimeter. That gets you to the switch-heavy lineups we often associate with small-ball.

Yet, none of these attributes are mutually exclusive with size. They just don’t traditionally come in big packages. Now, the pendulum has shifted back to “well, size is preferable given you still meet these skill requirements,” because being big will never hurt you, now that we understand ‘big’ =/= ‘slow’ and ‘unskilled.’ I’m speaking pretty generally here, but we’re just re-discovering old truths. It’s good to be bigger than your opponent on a basketball court, just like it was in 2nd grade. And, just like then, you still have to be able to do something else besides be big; it’s the “something else” that has changed into a “something else” we don’t view as being compatible with size.

Size-advantages, then, become conditional on skill. Though a size-advantage will often manifest in the traditional sense all basketball fans recognize, like a bigger player pushing a smaller player out of the way for an offensive put-back, the line between size-advantages and skill-advantages is as blurry as ever. Think about the Rudy Gobert Discourse — please, just a second — back in 2021, when the Los Angeles Clippers played five guards and wings, spaced the arc, and torched his Utah Jazz in the playoffs.

Many correctly identified the real individual issue with Gobert, beyond the team-wide lack of perimeter defense; he couldn’t take advantage on the other end. The Clippers comfortably put guards on him, and Gobert wasn’t able to go down to the block and either post them up, work them in the dunker spot, or even grab enough o-boards to make them pay. A lack of skill begs the question: Did the Jazz really have a size-advantage, then, or just a big guy out there?

The New York Liberty are eighth out of 12 WNBA teams in offensive rebounding. The are sixth in blocked shots. The traditional indicators for a team that dominates with size aren’t fully there in their statistical profile, though they do rank second in defensive-rebound rate. And yet, the team boasting MVPs and All-Stars galore wins with skill that is often inextricable from their size, over and over.

The Liberty start Breanna Stewart (6’4″) and Jonquel Jones (6’6″) in the front-court, average wingspan of about seven-feet, and that alone makes them a chore to score on in the paint. No matter what defensive coverage they’re in, typically one of them is ready to get active at the basket. You can forget about it when both are around:

Jones has the first rotation, and it’s pretty simple before her size acts as a total shot-deterrent, but Stewie’s awareness ground-coverage to get back in the play is what really stands out. She’s moving like a small guard, but ultimately contests like a big, and you can see where I’m going with this, though two contests at the rim is not quite an example of a non-traditional size advantage.

How about this play, then, where New York forces a shot-clock violation from the Indiana Fever?

Stewie makes an impromptu switch onto a driver before doubling the post, and Indiana can never reverse the ball to the weak-side of the floor. Why? Mostly because Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, a six-footer with a plus-wingspan playing the ‘2’, comes to engulf Indiana’s 5’8″ shooting guard Kelsey Mitchell before Jonquel Jones swallows Aliyah Boston up on the baseline.

New York locks up the left side of the floor on that possession, which I’ll say is about 750 square feet here (30 x 25, half the baseline). The activity and perimeter defense from all involved is an execution of small-ball principles, but in practice, they win with size the same way a post player might seal a mismatch into oblivion: taking an area of the court and overwhelming you within it.

The Liberty, thanks to the active hands and feet of Stewie and Jones, feel just as big 30 feet from the basket as they do right under it. Their aggressive switching and trapping blows up opposing offenses, and Breanna Stewart in particular is a menace here:

Poor Caitlin Clark. On the first play, she doesn’t get rid of it quick enough, and Stewie takes her lunch-money (New York trapping near the sideline is a principle this season), and on the second play, she gets it out of her hands early, only for the two-time MVP to react and deflect it, leading to a shot-clock violation. Obviously, Stewart’s instincts and hand-eye coordination here are special, but she just towers over and envelops guards on the perimeter, even six-footers like Clark.

It’s not that Stewart is big and can guard and the perimeter, it’s that she’s big and it helps her guard on the perimeter.

This is the principle that carries New York’s elite offense. You’re about to watch a play where, 1) Betnijah Laney-Hamilton gets Kelsey Mitchell on a guard-to-guard switch and backs her down causing Indiana’s D to collapse. 2) She then swings the ball, and the Liberty end up with a wide open three for Stewart, mostly because Aliyah Boston’s perimeter rotations are less than ideal, but her matchup, Jonquel Jones, is shooting 42% from three this season, so she really has no choice:

Is that a size-advantage leading to a skill-advantage? Two size-advantages stacked on top of one another? Two skill-advantages?

Head Coach Sandy Brondello frequents Laney-Hamilton as a screener/sealer type who often posts up, especially as many defenses switch guard-to-guard actions willy-nilly. Do it, and you end up with your smallest player guarding a six-footer built like one big muscle.

But perhaps the biggest key to New York’s offensive structure this season has been Jones on the perimeter. At 6’6″, she frequently acts as a fulcrum at the top of the key, and it is just incredible to watch. She’s a career 38% 3-point shooter on three attempts per game, volume and efficiency higher since she arrived in New York last year, and my people, it gets scary when teams try to defend her pick-and-pops straight up:

Opposing centers not only don’t get to protect the rim, then, but are put in rotation. Often, defenses will pre-rotate to save their bigs from getting exposed, buy the problem here is that Jones is a quick, decisive passer from the arc:

This is what happens when you roster as much top-end talent as you can imagine, as the Liberty do. But this seems like more of a skill-advantage; the only argument being that opposing bigs pulled away from the basket opens up the paint for New York’s other players to drive and score. That doesn’t necessarily indicate a lack of size, but rather a reality of well-executed 5-out spacing.

But Jones is still the center who won MVP in Connecticut with a heavy post-up load, who shoots 10% better than league-average from two in down years, but 69.5% (I’m serious) this season, in a spaced-out Liberty offense while not dealing with a lower-leg injury, as she was last season.

While the Liberty do like to maintain 5-out spacing, they’re not rigid enough to miss laughing at an idea like putting smaller, quicker defenders on her to switch things up, I guess because you gotta try something, right? Worse comes to worse, you can still double, as the Chicago Sky and Los Angeles Sparks did in their matchups this season, when their 6’7″ centers in Kamilla Cardoso and Li Yueru, respectively, were injured or on the bench. Reader, if you click to play any one of these clips, make sure it’s this one:

It’s a traditional size-advantage won by posting up that leads to skill that makes you jump out of your seat, though the fact that Jones has the skill to finish 1-on-1 post-ups is a valid argument for another day. Still, what makes Jones one of the best, most unique players hooping today is, reductively, the combination of size and skill, and that’s the same thing that makes the New York Liberty tick.

Between Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, and Brionna Jones, the Connecticut Sun have a long, big front-court that is physically imposing in a more traditional sense. They’re third in the league in rebounding, both offensive and defensive. They’re 11th in 3-point attempts per game and last in pace. Their spacing is not always ideal, but they brutalize their way past those problems on most nights anyway, and entered Wednesday’s game vs. the Liberty their equal, at 17-4. A quick look at the stats would suggest a finesse-vs-power matchup, and in the first half of the game, Bri Jones gave Jonquel legitimate problems down low, sealing and posting and making layups rarely made against Jonquel.

But these three straight possessions illustrate that all size isn’t equal.

1. Stewie helps off a non-shooter to take away the roll on a pick-and-roll, as Connecticut’s lack of outside shooting in their front-court lets New York stack the paint.
2. Jonquel Jones beating Bri Jones for a contested board, sprints the floor, seals her off, and makes a layup off a great entry pass.
3. CT runs their infamous inverted-PnR action for Alyssa Thomas, but now it’s Bri Jones’ lack of outside shooting that allows Jonquel to help in that paint. Harmless 20-footer.

You feel New York’s physicality more in those three clips, even though Connecticut isn’t physically overmatched. Jonquel Jones rebounding, running the floor, and sealing off her matchup is traditional big stuff, and she excels at that too, but there’s no help in the paint given the shooters around her on the floor. Connecticut cannot say the same, and thus, the Liberty bigs are taking up the paint, contesting shots, and grabbing boards.

Though much of that sequence is about off-ball shooting and spacing, that’s just one factor in how New York’s immense skill and smart coaching allows them to play to their size. Sandy Brondello’s team is bigger than you in the paint when they’re helping off non-shooters, sure, but they’re bigger than you on the perimeter too. They shrink you.

The New York Liberty are modern giants, with a size-advantage indistinguishable from their skill. They use the threat of paint-domination to get up the most 3-pointers in the league, and despite falling from 1st in 3-point percentage to fifth this season, they still are within decimal points of having the W’s highest offensive rating, thanks to shooting over 54% from two. Their size isn’t just for show.

But then again, neither is their skill.

The post On the New York Liberty, Who Maximize and Re-Define ‘Size’ appeared first on Swish Theory.

The 3-point revolution was always coming to the NBA. It took a while, but by the time Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors ascended, the train had already left the station. Curry merely became the face of the movement, and why not? Whether fans realized it at the time, his volume and efficiency from deep wasn’t the foundation, it was the result. He moved like nobody else, ripping off absurd dribble combinations with the ball or re-defining the art of screen-usage away from it. But he is not the sole forefather of modern hoops. Curry is an anomaly. The greats always are.

Caitlin Clark’s impending selection at #1 by the Indiana Fever in the 2024 WNBA Draft is not the genesis of the next era of women’s basketball; it’s been coming for a while. The Clark-less 2023 WNBA season set viewership records all over the place, and will continue to do so as the next generation of hoopers set to dazzle us. Just look at the talent-pool that will remain in the NCAA next season.

The talent boom is here, and as evolution goes, it was made possible by the singular talents of the past, names who new women’s hoops fans (many introduced by Clark) may not be familiar with, but are unknowingly reaping the benefits of. 

Caitlin Clark The Phenomenon is a cocktail of the work done by past legends, which has led to exploding interest in the women’s game, in part thanks to social media, which fixates on her must-see matchups at Iowa, which needed a formidable dancing partner. But the key ingredient is Caitlin Clark The Player, as dazzling as she is effective.

The ease with which Clark flings 30-footers both off-the-dribble and off-the-catch creates defensive emergencies near half-court. Clark then has both the ball-handling flexibility and passing chops to access the best response to any coverage, not to mention, she’s six-feet tall. In each of her last three seasons at Iowa, she grabbed over seven boards a game, which ignited the Hawkeyes’ transition game thanks to Clark’s ability to throw 70-foot outlets for layups. She is a terrifying offense unto herself.

None of her individual skills are entirely unprecedented, but the whole package just might be. Caitlin Clark likely isn’t the greatest WNBA prospect ever, nor the greatest raw talent ever. But she is an anomaly, and that’s why she’s going #1.

Lucas Kaplan

2. Cameron Brink, Stanford

Cameron Brink’s intersection of 2-way paint dominance and scoring versatility is virtually unprecedented. A likely #1 pick in a typical draft class, she pairs a refined drop big skillset with touch indicators that suggest elite playfinishing upside on the other end. 

On offense, Brink projects to contribute primarily with the ball out of her hands. She served as an offensive focal point for Stanford, taking on a heavy playmaking load (2.8 assists/2.4 turnovers in 25 mpg) operating out of the post, but it seems more likely she evolves into a do-it-all connector at the next level. Perhaps not the physical outlier it takes to be a go-to WNBA post scorer, her touch from the perimeter and reliability as an interior finisher should allow Brink to maintain a diverse shot profile. 

While her jumper inconsistency points to limitations as a scorer, Brink has all the tools to be effective on a play-to-play basis. She dominates the offensive glass to the tune of three boards per game, and can be deployed in a variety of ways. In any given set, Brink can be found setting physical screens, spacing from three or rolling to the basket, effective across the board even if not elite. Most of all, Brink plays with a good sense of how to bend a defense, and plays with her trademark intensity to carry ideas out.

Brink is a monster rim protector, leading the NCAA in blocks while being second in defensive boards. At 6’4’’ with a 6’8″ wingspan, Brink can cover massive amounts of territory quickly, and she pairs this with an aggressive help style, not afraid to leave her feet. This can lead to foul trouble, with three or more fouls for the majority of her games this season, but also allows her to be an intimidating deterrent to keeping out of her lane.

The figures are staggering for Brink: opponents shot a miniscule 39% at the rim when she was on the floor compared to 54% when she was off. Stanford gave up 77 points per 100 possessions with her on the court compared to 95 when she was off. It is not just the tape – where she can be seen soaring and destroying shot attempts – which prove she can lead a very good WNBA defense. Let Brink sit in drop defense, or even a high drop and let her cover the entire paint. While her lateral mobility is good rather than great, her length, effort and timing make it so that hardly matters.

Cameron Brink finds herself at #2 for two reasons: Caitlin Clark is in this class, and no other player can contribute as much on day one while still providing sky-high upside. As dominant as they get in the interior, Brink will terrorize opponents for years to come. Should her shot continue to develop and offense branch out, it is difficult to project how high Brink’s impact could be. Don’t underestimate the floor or the ceiling.

Oscar

3. Rickea Jackson, Tennessee

To keep it simple, Rickea Jackson is a walking bucket. However, her scoring arsenal is the absolute opposite of simple. Jackson’s top 4 scoring possession types this season were pick and roll, post-ups, spot-ups, and transition. Her scoring frequency in these possessions goes as follows: 86 pick and roll possessions, 86 post-ups, 84 spot-ups, and 80 transition possessions. If you created a pie chart of Rickea’s scoring distribution, she would have four nearly even slices in these four categories, which is incredibly rare for dominant scorers. What makes this even more impressive is that she is labeled “good” or above in all 4 (being 70th percentile or higher in three out of the four). There are players who are jack of all trades, master of none as scorers, but I would say that Rickea is a jack of all trades with the potential of becoming a master of all.

Another stat that puts her scoring dominance into perspective: Rickea Jackson has led her respective teams (Mississippi State and Tennessee) in scoring for the last five seasons. Looking closer at her scoring tools, Rickea is currently blossoming into a three-level scorer. She is one of the best rim scorers in this draft, converting on 66.4% of her 197 attempts around the basket. Jackson displays excellence in both finishing off drives and on post-ups, as her touch and ability to finish through contact are quite advanced. She has incredibly impressive stride length, burst and functional strength, allowing her to get into the lane with ease. Rickea combines these eye-popping athletic traits with her technical skills in generating advantages off rip-throughs and ball control when making finishing adjustments. This culmination of abilities is an absolute nightmare for any matchup she faces, and is a big reason for her general scoring dominance.

When the rim is rarely walled off by opposing defenders, Rickea can go to her favorite counter: the short mid-range. Jackson shot 42.7% on 96 short mid-range attempts this year, which is such a vital counter for scorers in the WNBA. She does a great job of recognizing when to initiate contact to get into these shots and is very good at perceiving open shooting windows. Jackson is also comfortable pulling up for long 2s as well, and she was in the 66th percentile in efficiency on these shots this past season. As for her outside jumper, Rickea Jackson has made lots of progress on this shot in the last five seasons. Since her freshman year, she has nearly tripled her volume of three point attempts while shooting 32.6% from outside this past season. She profiles as primarily a catch and shoot threat from deep, though she has shown flashes of three point pull-up shooting as well.

On the other side of the ball, Jackson is a solid wing/forward defender who is capable of taking on tough assignments. Jackson’s large offensive load has led to some inconsistencies from her defense in the past, but she seems to be finding the intersection between the high offensive volume and steady defense. She’s a quick lateral mover and is able to use her length to disturb ball handlers. Defensive rebounding is a strong suit of Jackson’s, as she aggressively attacks the glass and can get rebounds over taller players. 

All in all, Rickea Jackson’s game should translate seamlessly to the WNBA level, and the reasons above are why I believe she deserves to be a top 3 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft.

Josh Abercrombie

4. Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina

Kamilla Cardoso is always in control while staying dynamic, executing an essential role for the national champion South Carolina Gamecocks. The 6’7’’ big was the low post hub for Dawn Staley’s squad, posting and reposting with perhaps the best hands in class. Despite not starting until her senior season, Cardoso did not miss a beat, putting up per 100 possession numbers of 31 points, 21 rebounders and 5.3 blocks on 61% true shooting.

Cardoso’s size and athleticism bode well for her ability to fit in at the next level. She uses her length to wrangle in awry passes or block difficult shots, but more importantly has the sensibility for how her presence fits into scheme. She does not linger with the ball nor get complacent on the defensive side, making quick, fruitful decisions for her team.

In particular, I am optimistic in Cardoso’s ability to be a high-low threat. Her skill in the post allows her to get to the backboard, slipping past her defender, in the 88th percentile for layup efficiency on 289 attempts. But just as important is her passing acumen, slinging the ball with velocity and accuracy either to shooters spotting up form low post or entry passes from the high post. This ability prevents hard help from any angle.

Cardoso may not set the agenda on either side like the players higher up on this list. But she is extremely likely to be a useful WNBA player, already proven to execute at the highest adequacy possible at the collegiate level. Her interior dominance will translate, as will her general athleticism and feel for the game. A high floor prospect who can give starter minutes right away, I view her as the #3 player in the class, #4 on our consensus board.

Matt Powers

5. Aaliyah Edwards, Connecticut

In her senior season for the UConn Huskies, Aaliyah Edwards was the team’s unsung hero in their run to the Final 4. Bringing an incredibly versatile skillset to the table, she averaged 32.6 points, 17.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.1 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 100 possessions this season. Edwards has a unique way of leaving an impact on every single possession, boasting a degree of role malleability that is only rivaled by the game’s brightest stars.

Offensively, Edwards was often seen as both a playmaking hub out of the high post and as a play finisher. With excellent touch and a knack for creating contact, post-up scoring has become a massive strength for her. Over 117 post-up possessions this year, she shot 67.4% and generated 1.197 points per possession (PPP), ranking in the 96th percentile in efficiency. By scoring in the low, mid and high post alike, she can be deployed as a scorer from many spots despite her lack of a three point shot. As a primarily standstill shooter, she converted 36.4% of her 83 long mid-range attempts this season. This standstill jumper threat allows her to attack bigs off the dribble when they close out too aggressively, allowing her to get into her driving game.

Within UConn’s delay sets, Edwards was almost always the team’s ball handler at the top of the key when in the game. She excelled at making schemed reads in the flow of the offense, such as executing high-low passes, hitting 45 cutters in stride, and executing dribble handoffs. Her excellence in dribble handoff situations stems from an outstanding ability to make contact on screens and a keen sense for angles. Moreover, her capability to keep the ball in these situations and drive to the basket sets her apart from most DHO bigs. Coordination, functional handle, touch around the rim, and the ability to pass out are essential for a DHO big, and she absolutely exceeds in all of these requirements.

Defensively, Edwards did a magnificent job this season anchoring the second-best Power 5 defense in the country. One area that she excels in is her pick and roll coverage versatility, as she is capable of executing nearly any coverage there is. She can temporarily switch onto ball-handlers, hard hedge, and play a deep drop due to her combination of mobility and feel for space. When defending drives, her strength, lateral quickness, and active hands all pop off the screen, as she is able to shut off potential layups around the basket. She is also a solid rim protector when playing down low, though her 3.5% block rate may not stack up to some of the other anchors in this draft. As a result, she makes up for a lower block rate with a 3.1% steal rate. Edwards is great at intercepting poor post entry passes, a microskill that will certainly translate to the pros. Finally, her help instincts are very strong, as she consistently makes necessary rotations to prevent points from being scored.

Josh Abercrombie

6. Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State

Jacy Sheldon is a dynamic, offensively skilled guard with the Ohio State Buckeyes. She brings great two-way value and will slide in well for many different team constructs, as she figures to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft after a solid college career.

Offensively, Sheldon fills the role of “combo guard” to a tee, being capable of playing across both guard positions with her ability to be a value-add at the point guard position by helping to move the ball in transition, make solid reads in early offense, and get a team into their sets. However, in my opinion she trends more towards being an off-guard with her ability to shoot the ball from range at a steady clip (37% from three on 5 attempts a contest this past season) and mainly scoring-focused play on that end. Although just 5’10”, she plays much bigger than her size offensively, showcasing the ability to get downhill and finish through contact. I think offensively Sheldon is truly a three-level scorer.

Defensively, although Sheldon’s steal numbers are slightly inflated due to Ohio State’s propensity to utilize a full court press as their main defense, she is still very active and disruptive on that end. She makes the most of her great physical tools and basketball instincts to stay in front of drivers, provide effective help defense, and monitor the passing lanes to pick off errant passes. Sheldon’s screen navigation skills are also solid, and just like Sheldon plays bigger than her height offensively, she plays longer than her length defensively, mixing her speed and athleticism to cause issues for offensive players.

Jacy Sheldon comes into the WNBA a ready-made player that will be able to contribute immediately. With the star power at the top of the draft she may not pop off the proverbial page the same way, and superstar upside is more than likely not in the cards. However, as a solid player who brings a winning mentality and great skillset as a player, Sheldon is almost guaranteed to be in the league for a long time.

Corban Ford

7. Angel Reese, LSU

Angel Reese’s strengths are obvious when she’s on the court: she plays with determination and she’s a leader. While these are soft skills, I’d argue they inform her technique. Reese uses her energy and exuberant posture to effect all events, big or small. Her passing stands out, but more the chaos of it, as she whips the ball across the court, totally unexpected. No player in the class (with an obvious exception) is more capable of keeping the opponent on their toes, or else they’re in trouble.

The cornerstone of Reese’s game, however, is the defense. Producing three stocks per game, Reese applies her strength with force, attacking the ball no matter the location. There is an elegance to her chaos that puts the opponent on their back heels. This frenetic intensity is perfect to keep the offense guessing, deterring shots through intimidation as much as technique. But, especially on defense, she has the latter, too.

The offense is not as polished, though ‘not as polished’ still provided 19 points per game. The finishing is the concern, at only 42nd percentile at the rim, and ultimately keeps her out of my top 5. But you’re drafting her for her defense, anyways, and she still maintained average or better efficiency on post-ups (though barely), putbacks, transition and cuts. She can win on the offensive end too, purely through effort.

Angel Reese’s athleticism at 6’3’’ and effort to produce make her a worthy first round pick. If the touch somehow comes around some more (she’s up to 73% from the line), the 2023 NCAA tournament champion and Most Outstanding Player would be worthy of top six consideration.

Matt Powers

8. Alissa Pili, Utah

There are few more fun players in college basketball than Alissa Pili. While short for her position as a power forward, Pili more than makes up for it with her strength and creative application of that strength. In any given possession she could be found twirling into an opponent’s stomach, either carving space for a drive, sealing off in the post, getting position for rebounds, etc. She has a knack for jumping at the perfect moment to snag a board from a big with better position. She is one of the most compelling players to watch for these reasons.

Oh, she is also a bucket. Averaging over 20 points for the second straight season, Pili shot at the 89th percentile at the rim, 93rd percentile off the catch and 95th percentile off the dribble. She was 89th percentile at the rim and 82% from the line. Raising her three point attempts from 2 to 4 per game, cashing 40%, she provided valuable spacing for the Utah Utes.

This scoring and, especially, spacing is essential to her success at the WNBA level. Her clear weakness is foot speed in space, where I’d be anxious to see Pili guarding anywhere near the perimeter (even in spite of her well-timed swipes). But spacing the floor to this degree means you have to beat Pili at her game first.

Pili is not just a dazzlingly fun watch, but also flat out can play. Her team was 20 points better in net rating with her on the court, and she was top ten in the country in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). The W adaptation might take a minute, but the upside – especially as a scorer – is worth the first-round shot. 

Matt Powers

9. Nyadiew Puoch, Southside Flyers

One imagines Nyadiew Puoch’s WNBA role similar to that with the Southside Flyers: low usage, high activity. Despite showing some signs of handle, passing and scoring, there are too many rough edges in Puoch’s current game, technical details that need fixing, to expect any significant contribution right away. But if she could keep developing, perhaps by continuing to play overseas after being drafted, there is the outline of a solid WNBA contributor.

Puoch’s athleticism is the ceiling-raiser, with great mobility which combines well with consistent effort. In particular this shows on the defensive end, where her long wingspan and constant motion make areas of the court treacherous for her opponent. This athleticism and effort can be misguided, however, applied at the wrong time by accidentally walling off a teammate or turning her head at the wrong time. Normal issues for a 19 year old playing in a pro league, but issues nonetheless that would limit her WNBA immediacy.

Similar to her defensive strengths, the offense runs through activity and event creation, and also needs some polish. She is a constant blur of motion at her 6’3’’ size, circumventing an opponent with ease on cuts or in transition. While she should have no issue creating looks with this activity, and, it should be noted, her flashes of handle, it’s the finishing that is questionable. Puoch only shot 40% from the field, even while receiving these easier looks heading towards the rim. Her 67% from the line suggests the same: there is something to work with, even if the current result isn’t perfect.

Puoch has displayed this upside through scoring outbursts here and there, and, most importantly, pushes her creativity through sometimes adventurous passes or drives. But when it clicks, it really clicks, and one imagines the potential should her accuracy and feel improve even only a little bit. Early minutes would be difficult to come by, but with any additional development, Puoch could make her presence felt. If one of the handle, shot or passing continues to improve, Puoch could see real starter minutes. For this reason, she is a Swish first round pick.

Matt Powers

10. Charisma Osborne, UCLA

Charisma Osborne has one skill representative of her overall game: she is the best screen runner in class. When you try to knock Osborne out of a play, she hits you with speed first, getting low with flexibility but keeping her strength to stay on her path. She accelerates from there, with textbook closeout form. She has the tools, and the feel, and the technique. And you don’t want to mess with her.

Osborne was the best player on the 27-7 Bruins, where they had a +49 net rating (yes, net rating not plus-minus) when she was on the court, 21 points better than when off. While her three point percentage is disappointing for a guard, she is not without technique: she shot a shocking 90% from the line and an effective 71st percentile on 140 off-the-dribble jumpers. On 110 spots up, 91st percentile. She was 71st percentile on finishes, too: maintaining good but not great touch. When you take into consideration the shot context, her 32% three point percentage looks a lot less concerning.

But the real plus-value comes from everything else. The defense and defensive versatility (2x Pac-12 All Defense) mixed in with the ball distribution (2.1 assist to turnover ratio) make her the perfect connector. She can spark an offense by driving, too, and was strong out of the pick and roll (85th percentile on 100 possessions). 

While she faced some issues with scoring consistency due to lacking access to bankable buckets, she is always consistent in her effort and finding other ways to contribute. She may not look like a franchise cornerstone, but Osborne can raise the ceiling of a very good team, or keep a very good defense tied together with her activity and athleticism. These factors all make Osborne a Swish first round pick, and even higher on my personal board.

Matt Powers

11. Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech

Elizabeth Kitley’s draft stock will be a tricky evaluation for WNBA teams to make. She was one of the most productive and dominant players in all of college basketball last year, but she suffered a season ending ACL tear late in the 2022-2023 NCAA season, putting her ability to play her rookie season in jeopardy. Despite this setback, I believe that Kitley deserves to be a first round pick and fully expect her to bounce back stronger than ever.

Kitley’s superpower comes in post scoring – she racked up 303 post-up possessions this year and scored 300 points from these possessions. Before she even receives the ball, Kitley has an innate sense of when to duck in and where to initiate contact to carve out easy scoring opportunities. After Kitley receives the ball, she gets to put her impeccable footwork on display. Her patented move is her Dirk fadeaway, as her height and precise touch makes this an absolutely unguardable move. On 109 mid-range jumpers this season (mostly Dirk fades), Kitley shot a whopping 54.1%, including 59.5% on 37 long mid-range attempts. Pairing this with her 70.7% shooting around the rim, and defenses are almost forced to double her.

Teams all year had to pack the paint and double Kitley from a variety of locations, triggering double teams from areas all over the court. Some bigs struggle to respond to this, but Kitley did a good job of taking advantage of the attention she received. She showed a solid feel of passing out of double teams this season, as she displayed the ability to hit the open player to create a numbers advantage for Virginia Tech. 

Detractors of Kitley’s pro prospects cite her lack of mobility on defense as a potential swing skill for her. I am a bit less worried about this, as whatever team selects her will likely play her in a deep drop like she played at Virginia Tech. Even when she does have to cover drivers in face-up situations, she is fairly good at flipping her hips if she gets initially beat. While around the rim, Kitley is a great shot-blocker, using her length and great ball tracking to erase potential scoring opportunities. 

Kitley may not end up being a team’s primary scorer like she was for Virginia Tech, but I fully trust her ability to scale down and provide productive minutes for any team that selects her. She has the upside to take advantage of switching defenses with her post work, and can still be a big time late-clock scoring threat due to her fadeaway.

Josh Abercrombie

12. Celeste Taylor, Ohio State

Celeste Taylor is a defensive minded guard entering the draft from Ohio State after a solid college career that included stops at both Texas and Duke. The 5’11” guard is a chaos agent on the defensive end, generating deflections and steals at a high rate and using solid lateral quickness and speed to keep in front of the main offensive perimeter players of opposing teams, staying attached even through various off-ball actions and around any screens that she may encounter. Taylor’s defense is extremely impactful, and that skillset alone will guarantee her rotation minutes at the next level.

Offensively, Taylor’s swing skill is her jump shot. Once a relatively big weakness, she has improved her outside shooting each year over her college career (from 28% to 33% from three), and in addition to doing so she has also grown as a shot maker and advantage creator on the offensive end. Her mid-range game is smooth and she does a good job operating in that space, especially off of ball screens, and she can find open teammates adequately. With that being said, as disruptive as Taylor is defensively, the offensive game will have to improve to achieve the higher end outcome as a player in the WNBA.

Taylor will be a positive player with her defensive versatility and ability to function as a very scalable role player at the next level. Her improvement as a jump shooter suggests that there is continued growth to be had, and if she is able to continue to develop that in addition to being an advantage creator defensively, then Celeste Taylor can prove to be one of the great steals of draft, either late in the first round, or early in the second.

Corban Ford

13. Leila Lacan, Angers

Leila Lacan ends up as the #13 prospect on our big board, but this was not a consensus placement. I touted Lacan as the #5 prospect on my personal board, easily the highest of any contributor.

Even Lacan’s detractors will note the sell is quite easy. Lacan will turn 20 on June 2, and has been a key contributor for the French club Angers, which competes in the country’s top-tier league. In both league and FIBA play, Lacan has shown glimpses of every skill you could want from a big-time combo guard at 5’11”.

Lacan is a plus-athlete for her size, winning at the offensive point-of-attack by adding a plus-handle to impressive speed and length. From there, Lacan has shown the ability to hit any passing read that the defense gives her, whether it’s a pocket pass, a skip, hitting cutters, you name it. On the other end, she puts her tools to good use, leading the French league in steals this season with 3.2 a game versus just 2.5 fouls.

But as a devout believer, I admit the sell against Lacan in the first-round is also easy to make. She’s 19, yes, but her youth serves more as a point of comfort vs. genuine excitement. It’s a reason to ignore her shooting in the low-40s from two and, despite multiple games with deep, pull-up triples, shooting in the low-30s from three.

Lacan is the shiny mystery box of the 2024 WNBA Draft, a young prospect whose highlight reel is deserving of a lottery pick. Only 19! Perhaps I’ve been duped, too focused on what could be than what actually is. There’s no guarantee Leila Lacan puts it all together; for all the intrigue, she’s hardly ahead of schedule as a prospect. 

So, who’s gonna take the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

14. Helena Pueyo, Arizona

Helena Pueyo, a 5th year senior out of Arizona, has a case for best perimeter defender in this year’s WNBA draft. Her ability to make plays defensively jumps out both on film and the stat sheet, averaging a staggering 4.1 stocks (steals + blocks) in her final year of college. She’s able to rack up steals, blocks, and deflections so easily thanks to incredible hand-eye coordination and natural defensive instincts off the ball. 

Pueyo also developed into a solid offensive player over her time in college, albeit a low usage one. She’s a dependable shooter from both 3pt and midrange, capable of making shots both off-the-dribble and in catch and shoot scenarios. She’s also a good passer, despite not being a great creator overall, and is very adept at keeping the ball moving and making good decisions within the flow of offense. Helena’s real strength offensively, though, is as a finisher, where she made real growth as an upperclassmen. Despite mediocre finishing numbers throughout her first 3 years in college Pueyo shot an outstanding 75% at the rim her final two seasons, one of the highest numbers in this year’s draft. Overall, her lack of high-end ball handling or athleticism holds Pueyo back from being a threatening on-ball creator, but she has a very strongskill set for fitting into a complementary offensive role. 

Pueyo doesn’t project to be a star, but she’s very good at what she does. Between her tenacious defense and the offensive skillset to compliment other players, it’s not hard to envision her as a reliable perimeter role player in the W. 

AJ Carter

15. Nika Mühl, Connecticut

When you think of Nika Mühl’s game two things immediately come to mind: passing and defense. A 2x Big East DPOY, Mühl is an outstanding perimeter defender. She doesn’t rack up steals at as high of a rate as other guard defenders, but her ability to defend one-on-one is about as good as it gets. She’s hard to create separation against on the perimeter, fights over screens well, and isn’t afraid to play with toughness and physicality when cross-matched onto larger players. Despite UConn losing to Iowa in the tournament this year, Mühl’s defense against Caitlin Clark was truly outstanding in that game. Mühl is also an incredible passer and playmaker for others, backed by the fact that she’s UConn’s all-time leader in assists – obviously a tremendous accomplishment at a school as storied as UConn. 

The main area of weakness for Mühl right now is as a scorer. She isn’t very aggressive looking for her own shot and actually has more assists than points scored over the last 2 seasons, which is rare to see. The positive for Mühl though is that she does possess enough of a skillset as a scorer to where teams still have to respect her. She shot 36% from 3pt for her career at UConn including over 40% as a senior, so it’s not as if defenses can just leave her open on the perimeter. She also finishes at the rim at an above average rate and is comfortable making an open mid-range jumper, so it’s clear that Mühl can make shots from various spots on the floor when needed despite not looking to shoot much. 

All things considered Mühl has a valuable skill set despite never posting eye-popping numbers in college. She’s an outstanding defender and passer, can make open shots, and is backed by a very impressive college resume. That package of skills and pedigree makes Mühl an intriguing prospect to watch and worthy of a draft pick. 

AJ Carter

16. Dyaisha Fair, Syracuse

From the WNBA’s inaugural season in 1997 until the 2022-2023 season, ten players had joined the illustrious 3,000 points club. Seven of them went on to be all-stars in the WNBA, with many of them establishing themselves as some of the WNBA’s best. This past season, two new players entered the 3,000 points club: projected #1 overall pick Caitlin Clark and Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair. 

Selecting one of the most productive scorers in college basketball’s long history seems to be good draft process, and it also seems to be strong process to select one of the most prolific pull-up shooters in college basketball history as well. Dyaisha Fair fits into both of these categories. Fair was first in the country in points per game off pull-up jumpers this season at 10.6 ppg, 1.3 ppg higher than the tie for second place between Caitlin Clark and Juju Watkins (the top two scorers in all of college basketball). Among the leaders in pull-up three point attempts per game, Fair ranks second overall in pull-up three point attempts per game while shooting an incredible 39.7% on these looks. The next player shooting as efficiently or more efficiently on pull-up threes as Fair ranks 29th in pull-up 3 point frequency, shooting under half the amount of attempts of Fair. She is able to get into these looks off a variety of size-up combinations, but her most effective move may be her mis-direction stepback. This move blends synergistically with her effective between the legs move, which she often uses to open up driving lanes. 

More on pull-up shooting, Fair’s pull-up mid-range continues to be an important counter for her. Fair is more than capable of knocking down incredibly difficult mid-range attempts, often patiently double clutching on shots to avoid the outstretched arms of her defender. The threat of her mid-range helps her create easier looks around the basket, as defenders have to guard incredibly close to her at all times. Fair is a very creative finisher around the basket, making super difficult adjustments to open up looks at the basket.

The skill that brings together her incredible mix of scoring tools is her unbelievable handle. Fair’s career highlights are full of ankle breakers that would be many players’ best career plays. She is unbelievably shifty with the ball in her hands, creating easy driving lanes and open shooting windows. However, she is also more than capable of creating for others. One of my favorite microskills of Fair’s is her ability to rise up into a jumper, only to throw a dump-off pass at the apex of her jump. Her scoring prowess demands tons of attention from the defense, and she is quite good at finding teammates in advantageous scoring positions.

People that are low on Fair always talk about her short stature, but this has never stopped Fair from reaching the highest heights in basketball. They also tend to cite her defense as a weakness going forward, but Fair has some valuable defensive traits that will go a long way for her. For starters, Fair is a ball-hawk on defense, often making tough plays on the ball in passing lanes. Her quickness and instincts allow her to make these plays, and on the ball she is able to disturb ball-handlers with her quick hands. Fair is finally beginning to deservingly receive praise as a potential WNBA prospect, and I believe she can make an instant impact for any team that selects her.

Josh Abercrombie

17. Isobel Borlase, Adelaide

It is an uphill battle to be a dribble-pass-shoot threat in the WNBA, given the saturation of talent at the top. It is very difficult to get on-ball reps, especially as a young player, which gives me some hesitancy in projecting Isobel Borlase to get the development she needs against the highest competition in the world. But she has shown flashes of elite scoring and productivity against professional competition that suggests the payoff may be worth it.

As a starter on the Adelaide Lightning, Borlase gets daily experience playing next to and against WNBA players, most notably having as teammate the Chicago Sky’s Brianna Turner. While her outside shooting efficiency has been mediocre – only shooting 28% from three and 74% from the line – she has shown real signs of rim finishing through attacking the rim on the move. 

Borlase is a creative passer and effective ball-mover, even if she averages more turnovers than assists. The heightened competition compared to NCAA basketball makes efficiency production tougher to come by. But Borlase has shown stretches of dominance, putting up 31 point (on 12-16 shooting) and 25 point (on 7-13 shooting) games this season. The consistency needs improvement but is no surprise to lack in a 19 year old.

Betting on Borlase means you have space to allow her to continue to explore her versatile scoring and budding on-ball equity, trusting her to iron out the details over time. A solid athlete at 5’11’’, Borlase’s ability to fit in against competition above her years is a great sign she’ll figure it out in the WNBA, too.

Matt Powers

18. Kiki Jefferson, Louisville

Kiki Jefferson, like the other guard prospects given second-round grades on our big board, has flaws. But Jefferson is a well-rounded five-year college player that made the jump from James Madison to Louisville for her final year, and while her averages went down, no longer the alpha, Jefferson improved.

She shot 51.2% on twos, which is where the majority of her offense could come from in the W. She has a release built for the mid-range, and at 6’1” with serious core strength, Jefferson can get to that shot when she wants or drive to the rim, where she shot 54.3% last season, according to Synergy.

Jefferson shot 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes last season, taking just over two per game, occasionally reluctant to fire but hardly looking incompetent when she did. Those looking for optimism with Jefferson’s shot can point to her career free-throw mark of 81.5%, which jumped to 88.4% at Louisville.

None of this is wildly impressive, to be sure. Nor is the 2.3:2.1 assist:turnover ratio. The sell for Jefferson, my #14 prospect, is simple: She’s malleable. There’s more offensive talent to work with than, say Nika Mühl, but she possesses all the tools to reasonably hold her own on defense. Jefferson may not set up your offense on every possession, but you’ll feel comfortable with her handling in transition.

Kiki Jefferson is a multi-talented hooper. She just needs a bona-fide WNBA skill to pop. Will any team give her the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

19. Taiyanna Jackson, Kansas

Taiyanna Jackson may not be the most versatile player in this draft, but she does have one elusive quality: she protects the rim, and very well. At 6’6’’, Jackson was dominant on the defensive interior. Opponents shot 27% against her at the rim, only one percentage point higher than likely early first round pick Kamilla Cardoso. She blocked 6.5 shots per 100 possessions, exceeding even that of Cardoso, using her long wingspan and long strides to make plays from distance.

She has some significant holes in her game, most notably her careless passing, at a 0.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as her free throw shooting at 49%. But she has a presence on the interior on offense, as well, a 95th percentile finisher at the rim. If a team can hone in on these strengths and limit her role to her specialties, she could outperform.

Athleticism can get you on the court and Jackson has that in spades, a fluid mover for her size who engulfs opponents to snag the ball on either glass, and is mobile enough to patrol the entirety of the paint. You can trust her to deter shots on defense and pressure the rim on offense. These are bankable traits, even when considering the weaknesses.

A team needing a backup rim protector who can post up and crash the glass should take a long look at Jackson after the first round. While she lands near the end of our board, her tools are strong enough for her to return value far above, especially if she can clean up the weaknesses.

Matt Powers

20. Hannah Jump, Stanford

Scheme versatility is essential to a functioning WNBA offense, but most important is the ability to execute generally. With constant off-ball motion and dedicated actions, having a player you can trust to do her job is monumental. Enter Hannah Jump.

She may not be the most well-rounded in her game, with assists, rebounds, steals and blocks all below NCAA average. She has one of the lowest free throw rates I have ever seen, taking a career 68 free throws compared to 1,195 field goals. But she also hardly makes mistakes, noted by a very strong 2.5 assist to turnover ratio. Those are players you can work with.

While she plays a passive role, she is also an important play finisher. She is Stanford’s leading three point shooter in the history of the program, with 364 made threes out of 890 attempts to hit a stellar 40% efficiency. She doesn’t just shoot off the catch, though she does at an excellent 94th percentile rate, but also off the dribble. The threat of her running off of screens is compounded by having to stop her off of handoffs, in pick and roll, spotting up in transition. Her three point versatility is as important as the volume. 

As a specialist with many limitations, Hannah Jump isn’t likely to be a WNBA starter, and has an uphill battle to be a role player. But with bankable skills shooting from distance and limited mistake-making, she has a chance. For that reason, she finds herself in Swish Theory’s top 20.

Matt Powers

The post Swish Theory’s 2024 WNBA Draft Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

New York Liberty. Las Vegas Aces. A’ja Wilson. Breanna Stewart. All-Stars up and down the roster on the grandest stage, the WNBA Finals. Tap in, indeed. 

We have been treated to this matchup five times this season, including the Commissioner’s Cup Finals. The closest game was decided by 11 points. The regular season series was split, two games a piece. This is about as close as it gets, and the blowouts are indicative of one thing:

No matter how great of opposition either team faces, these truly all-time great rosters that can obliterate anyone. 

“What have we witnessed this season that could be predictive of the epic battles ahead?” I am so glad you asked.

Guard Play

Despite the MVPs at the top of the marquee, the depth of stardom goes much further here. There are six former All-Stars across these two backcourts. That is simply astounding. Even better, they all play the game in such a unique way that the mixture makes for artistry on the court. 

Seafoam SZN

Over the four regular-season meetings, Sabrina Ionescu led all players in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Even better, she was brilliantly efficient, shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 52.9 from distance on 8.5 attempts per game. While a polarizing player, it is impossible to argue with that effectiveness. Forget the Kobe comparisons, she is approaching levels of fellow Bay Area great Stephen Curry.  

While she is a dynamic passer, much of that burden has been lifted from her shoulders by Courtney Vandersloot this season. As is commonplace at this point, Sloot led the league in assists for the seventh time in her career. She is an unparalleled floor general who unselfishly bends the surroundings to her will as if she is in fifth gear. 

While not an All-Star, Marine Johannes will be on full display in this series. She is a human highlight reel and casual fans checking in for the Finals will be blown away by some of the things she attempts. 

Blazing Aces

Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum are a three-headed monster that no one can really prepare for. There are only so many guard/wing defenders you can throw on the court at one time without exposing yourself down low to the best player in the world. And that is the Aces problem in an extremely simplified nutshell. 

Young was the leading scorer for the Aces in this season’s series (17.8 points per game) and shot 57.9 percent from distance on 4.8 attempts per game. The evolution of her game in the last two seasons under coach Becky Hammon has been transformational for Vegas. It one of the focal points in this matchup specifically, as she is often where the Liberty are forced to try to hide the weakest defender on the floor. 

Kelsey Plum has not been the same level of supernova this season as the last, but that is not to say she has been less than elite. However, the comparison of stat lines for the season and in this series could end up making or breaking Vegas:

• Season: 18.7 points / 4.5 assists / 2.4 rebounds / 1.1 steals / 47.7/38.9/91.2 shooting splits

• Vs. NYL: 14.3 points / 4.0 assists / 2.3 rebounds / 0.8 steals / 39.3/34.8/100 shooting splits

Simply put, for the Aces to win she needs to be better. Even if better is just taking fewer shots and picking her spots better, that is fine too. So far this postseason, Plum has been better than those efficiency numbers. However, she is also averaging as many assists as turnovers, so something has to give. 

Then there is Chelsea Gray. We have reached a point where “Point Gawd” actually feels like underselling just what Gray is. Perhaps the maker of the toughest shots in the league, Gray is clutch. No moment is too big for her and on any given night she can lead the team in scoring while also dropping 10 dimes a game. No matter what answer you throw in her direction, she changes the questions.  

Defensive Dynamos

Not to focus solely on the offensive side of the ball, these are two of the top three defensive units in the league as well. Both boast a sub-100 defensive rating. Whether it be Betnijah Laney, Jonquel Jones, A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, or Alysha Clark, any of these could be the best defender in this series. 

Clark won Sixth Player of the Year in large part due to the defense she brings to the table. She is the quintessential role player who can also just erase someone on offense and will be tasked with doing just that in this series. 

Laney has been much more than this throughout the postseason. She was arguably the most important player for this team in the last round. However, she will absolutely be thrown on one of the aforementioned three elite guards for Vegas and be tasked with trying to slow them down. 

Beyond the top of the food chain, Kayla Thornton deserves a shout-out here. Long one of the few players for the Wings that knew that side of the ball mattered, Thornton is finally liberated to not be the only great defender on her team. Her reward: A’ja Wilson for 10 to 15 minutes per night. 

The Third MVP

Even beyond the last two players we will talk about, there are other MVP winners on these rosters. Unfortunately, one of them (Candace Parker) only appeared in one meeting this season and is unlikely to be cleared to play in the Finals. It is hard to say she will be missed for Vegas as she has only played 18 games this season. Vegas knows what they are more without her than with her. The other, however, is coming off a blistering hot run in the Semi-Finals. 

Jonquel Jones saw her former team across the court and mercilessly finished them. Over the four games, the former MVP averaged 15 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game. Importantly, she is the defensive anchor for this team, despite Stewart being named to the All-Defensive First Team and Laney being named to the Second Team. 

If the Liberty are to contain A’ja Wilson, it will come down to the duo of Jones and Stewart. They have made life hard for her during the regular season (relatively). Jones, unlike her frontcourt partner, has not yet won a ring. This will be her third Finals appearance. In 2019, she had an up-and-down series against the Washington Mystics. Last season for the Sun against these Aces, Jones scored in double figures every game but averaged just over eight boards per game. 

Jones left Connecticut for this opportunity, with this group, on this stage. She is thirsty for the peak of her profession and now is the time to shine. In the Commission Cup Finals, she earned MVP honors with 16 points, 15 rebounds, and two blocks. More of that would go a long way. 

Battle of Modern GOATs

We have arrived at the main event. There is no doubt about the fact that A’ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart are in the midst of careers that will go down as two of the best in league history. 

Between the two of them, they already have three rings, two Finals MVPs, four MVPs, two Defensive Player of the Year awards, and 11 All-WNBA team appearances (counting this year’s yet-to-be-announced honors), among plenty of other accolades. Neither has even turned 30. 

All that being said, the regular season series saw both struggle by their lofty standards. Here are the numbers. 

Wilson:

Season: 22.8 points / 9.5 rebounds / 2.2 blocks / 1.4 steals / 55.7/31.0/81.2 shooting splits

Vs. NYL: 17.3 points / 6.5 rebounds / 1.8 blocks / 0.5 steals / 48.1/0/86.4 shooting splits

Stewart:

Season: 23.0 points / 9.3 rebounds / 1.6 blocks / 1.5 steals / 46.5/35.5/85.1 shooting splits

Vs. LVA: 18.0 points / 7.5 rebounds / 2.3 blocks / 1.8 steals / 35.6/22.2/87.5 shooting splits

Throughout this postseason, they have looked like their normal selves. There is clear reason for the accolades they have earned. If I were to bet, I think both ascend to another level during this series. 

The last time these two met in the Finals, it was all Stewie. She started off the series with a 37-point, 15-rebound, four-block domination and never looked back. Both have grown drastically since then, but Wilson is notably on a whole other level now. Watching them tussle for dominance is what this league has been building to ever since those Bubble Finals. It is what the WNBA is about. Watching the two best players in the league play for the top prize is a dream come true. 

Prediction

This is going to be fun. Both coaches have condensed their rotations thoroughly, Sandy Brondello has played five players in the postseason more than 11 minutes per game. Becky Hammon, six. The chess moves may take them beyond that in this series and that will be fascinating. 

Part of me will be rooting for the Aces. Since getting into the league, A’ja Wilson has been my second favorite player, and watching her continue to rack up the accolades would be wonderful. But this feels like the New York Liberty’s time. They have gelled to perfection as the season has gone along. They beautifully weathered the challenges of the Washington Mystics and Connecticut Sun. 

New York Liberty over Las Vegas Aces in five. Sabrina Ionescu Finals MVP. She has been too much of a problem in this matchup and is made for this kind of stage. Ever since the All-Star break she has been a supernova.

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In Naphessa Collier’s first full season as the undoubted face of the franchise, she is already showing that she is more than up to the task. So what does Collier bring to the table? Luckily, a little bit of everything. 

Defense

A former college Defensive Player of the Year for the AAC and All-Defensive second-teamer, Collier truly brings it on both ends of the floor. She can capably stay in front of wings and bigs. Up for any challenge, there is no one that Phee is afraid to pester. For instance, she is willing to go right at Brittney Griner, take the rebound from her, and wall her off to get the ball to a teammate.

Against the best team in the league, she is regularly tasked with guarding the reigning MVP. That does not mean she will not switch. Here, for example, she swings from the Wilson to a driving Candace Parker. The result does not go CP’s way. 

She is a disruptor. Collier finished in the top five in steals in both of her first two seasons and is currently in the top 10 again. Add in two top 10 blocks per game seasons as well, and Collier has the statistical resume to complement the eye test. And trust that the eye test shows the disruption even more. 

As the young team is coalescing around their star, this defensive mentality is essential. Collier embodies the hard work that has helped the Minnesota Lynx return to .500 this season after starting 0-6. Three of their top six minutes loggers have less than three years of experience, including rookies Dorka Juhasz and Diamond Miller. They are still far from a passable defensive team, but Collier does everything she can to change that nightly. 

Attacking and Scoring

Collier does not just bring the intensity to the defensive end of the floor. It should come as no surprise that Phee is currently fourth in the league in scoring. She is a relentless force. Being able to hang with the point totals of Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, and Arike Ogunbowale while not being a 3-point shooter (30.8 percent on 3.8 attempts per game) is a testament to this. 

Getting into the lane is the bread and butter of Napheesa Collier’s bag. She has a solid post up game, as evidenced below. Here she backs down A’ja Wilson, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, before fading away for the bucket. 

Even better, contact is not something that is going to slow her down. Beyond that, Collier often feels like she seeks it out. Currently fifth in the league in free throw attempts, Phee creates extra opportunities to benefit her team. 

It is not always about scoring though. Minnesota likes to move the ball around to find the right opportunity to strike. Phee is a major part of that, though her assist numbers do not necessarily reflect it. With so much ball movement the extra kick pass tends to devalue exactly what her impact is, but Napheesa Collier is indisputable. 

Cementing the Future

All of this builds to the most important aspect of Collier continuing to ascend with an additional focus on her. As mentioned before, this was a big draft for the Lynx. Diamond Miller looks to be a star in the making. While Aliyah Boston has likely sewn up Rookie of the Year, Miller has been doing her best to make that interesting. Dorka Juhasz continues to get more and more comfortable. 

In the five games since the All-Star break, Juhasz has averaged 10 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steals per game. Jessica Shepard is in her fourth season and recently returned to the lineup. If this is the young core of the future around Phee, the close to this season is essential. 

Luckily Collier is more than up to the task. She is a born leader and is ready to help make this team the best that it can be. This may be the most important lesson Fowles was able to teach. Being a star is not just about making yourself great and putting up gaudy numbers. Yes, Fowles’ stats are memorable. But even more so was her status as an unparalleled teammate. 

That is the culture of the Minnesota Lynx. Those great names all knew that. They lived for it. Napheesa Collier carries herself in much the same way. It will not be long before she leads the Lynx back to the top of the league.

The post Napheesa Collier: Leader of the Pack appeared first on Swish Theory.

“Bodies on the floor, carnage…and a bucket” was the play-by-play description for what could have been any given Alyssa Thomas highlight: Sensing an opportunity, she dove on the floor, nearly took out a ref, all to punch the ball ahead to a teammate for an easy transition two.  

Thomas’ play-style may be different than expected given her statistical output: she is a triple double machine, claiming seven of the most recent eight in the WNBA and the first ever back-to-back in history. She is reliable of a producer as you can find in basketball right now, first in the league in not just assists but also rebounds, steals.

Thomas combines the aesthetic peak of basketball with its most practical elements. She has access to all the creativity the sport has to offer, but is obsessed with finding the most direct route to do so.

Take this recent clip, for example. Facing a significant advantage on a jump ball and spotting a teammate with a lead to the open court, Alyssa straight-up volleyball spikes the ball.

Thomas produces across the court despite being a subpar scorer by efficiency. She puts up 15 points per game, mostly coming from her signature push-floater or bruising to the line. In spite of this, there is little she cannot do on the court. She thrives as the conductor of creative, functional offense, stalwart, buttressed by her rare combination of un-moveability off her spot and surprising mobility for her strength. It feels unfair to tie Thomas to any player comps, as she has adapted to a new basketball language of her very own.

AT is able to break down her opponents by accepting and having access to all kinds of possibilities. Calling Alyssa Thomas unpredictable feels like a misnomer, as she seems very aware of where she’s going ahead of time, but can’t tell you. In this way, she is unprecedented in her unpredictability. Playing against her must feel like the most complex cup game of all time, as at any given moment she can duck into the middle of the court to access her floater or a lay-in or pass – and this is key – fully fluent with either hand be it lobs, hit-aheads, pocket passes, you name it.

Let’s break down how she does it.

High-Value Assists

Thomas in particular is the queen of high-value assists. Always in control of pace and with the strength and handle to take her time, she waits for the right moment for daylight to open before hunting out not just a pedestrian pass, but one that will create a lay-up.

While most of her assists to open layups happen in transition, Thomas is able to create offense out of nothing simply due to her timing and passing accuracy, as well as using every tool available to her.

My favorite half-court assists of hers are offensive tips to her teammates: it only takes a moment of daylight for AT to knock the ball sideways to a nearby finisher. But she also is so savvy with her delivery of what would be otherwise pedestrian looks so as to make a player open simply by receiving it. This is how she is able to be a league-best conductor without her own primary scoring, but more weapons are arriving in the next sections.

Defense to Offense

This is why she’s a beast in transition as well, as trustworthy of a 3-on-2 or 2-on-1 break leader as you can find. I would be terrified to play poker against Alyssa, as she often is so far ahead of her opponent’s timing she is able to even pick up her dribble early, seemingly toying with the opponent to exaggerate her passing dominance.

The league leader in steals, Thomas does not have the best handle in the open court but is hyper-aware of the space she has to operate. The term proprioception comes to mind, meaning awareness of body in space, as she rotates at the perfect time to swipe the ball, all well setting up the fastbreak.

Once again her passing accuracy shines, as she would be an excellent quarterback: Thomas is urgent but never rushes, able to sling a hit-ahead just above opponent arms, softly landing in her teammates’ bread basket for the finish. It is difficult to write about these without sensationalist language, as she truly rarely forces it despite the frequency of transition possessions. You can’t force it if your accuracy is unmatched. We see this point validated in not just her league leading assist tally, but 95^th percentile assist to turnover rate of 2.96 to 1.

Screener to Screen Receiver:

This is where things get really fun. Thomas is not just strong, but perhaps the strongest in the entire league. At 6’2’’ and with a plus-plus wingspan, AT screens are as good as any at creating seams in the defense, and has the catch radius to get the ball back quickly after doing so. When you’re as accurate of a passer as Thomas is, and have as good of a sense of schematic timing, it only takes a correctly set screen to get things rolling.

Let’s write down the four options we see in this section’s clips:

• Fake dribble hand-off into pindown handoff screen, then catching on the roll to drop off to dunker spot
• HORNS hand-off to give and go, hitting cutter
• Pick to short roll to kick out
• Pick to receiving ball as roller to then hit cutter

Not included was her ability to use screens on occasion as well. What makes Thomas effective as a conductor is not just her accuracy, but ability to hit a body (cause carnage) and regain composure in an instant to find an open teammate. Combine that with the proprioception bit, ducking and diving through opponents in an instant, and you have an entire half-court offense. Her handle may not be enough to create open rim attempts every possession, but let her touch the ball twice, even in short sequence, and you’ll be much more open than before.

Safety Valve Offense

What takes Thomas to the peaks of the WNBA, however, is her scoring. I mentioned she is not the most efficient, as in the 27^th percentile for effective field goal percentage – quite bad! But that calculation does not include free throws, where Thomas is top 20 in the league in made free throws per game.

She is not just physical but seeks it out wherever she can, able to wedge space for herself where there doesn’t appear an angle. The free throw percentage is just okay at 73%, but, in combination with her ability to manufacture looks when she needs to, present her team with a last ditch “safety valve” option on offense.

Most famously, AT switched shooting from left to right after a mid-career shoulder injury. She is now capable of launching her signature push-floater from either shoulder, up to around the free throw line, when the rest of the offense stagnates. While her last resort scoring provides a valuable outlet for her team, it tanks her shooting, at its lowest mark from the field since her second season in the league.

Alyssa Thomas, The Leader

Alyssa Thomas is just now scratching the surface of what, well, Alyssa Thomas looks like as the primary conductor of an offense. While she branched out over the years next to former MVP Jonquel Jones, the Sun offense is now truly revolving around AT. Her combination of skills, whether it body control combined with physicality, creativity matched with passing accuracy, or simply bouldering through traffic to the rim, Thomas not only maximizes her own tools but those of her teammates.

That is where we see the Sun, unfortunately losing Brionna Jones for the year, compensating with the surging DiJonai Carrington and Rebecca Allen, finding her footing. DeWanna Bonner upping her three point volume. Natisha Hiedman struggling so far but still contributing with passing and occasional tough shotmaking. It is tough to count out the Sun, and Alyssa Thomas + a crew of toolsy complements is why.

The post Alyssa Thomas: Carnage and a Bucket appeared first on Swish Theory.

When a player makes it past that point and starts showing signs of promise, it feels like it may finally be their time. Dijonai Carrington had started to find her way in her first two seasons. She played in 60 games over two years. The team picked up her option, tying her to the team through the next two years should they so choose. And yet, Carrington had only played two minutes through the first three games of the season. Even with playing time picking up a little recently, the questions remain.

After two years with the Connecticut Sun, Carrington felt like a fixture off the bench for this team. Then, the organization picked up her option. However, the minutes consistency is not there. This led to me posing the following question to head coach Stephanie White:

As an answer, this is mostly non-information. But given the quibbles one can make with it, there are places for Carrington to go, whether in Connecticut or elsewhere.

Answers Lead to More Questions

Stephanie White gave the appropriate level of coach speak when addressing this question while also providing a valid point. Connecticut reshaped its roster drastically over the offseason and brought in three new wing contributors: Tiffany Hayes, Ty Harris, and Rebecca Allen. This combined with the injury Carrington was dealing with in the winter months can contribute to a slower start to the season.

The issue arises when noticing that Carrington fits the current team more than two of those players. There is no issue with Hayes being in front of her. Hayes is shooting 41.4 percent on 4.1 long-distance attempts per game. She has an All-Star, go-to scorer ceiling that this team needs. Ty Harris and Bec Allen, however, are not the same.

Harris has been a guard with promise since being drafted seventh overall in 2020 by the Dallas Wings. Over three seasons in Dallas she averaged just 16.9 minutes per game, with the number actually going down year by year. Allen was brought in as a 3-point sniper who, through her first seven games, was shooting 31.3 percent on 2.3 attempts per game. If she is not bringing this, she does not bring much else to the court.

Carrington, on the other hand, brings a lot of what this team has come to embody. She currently plays with the highest pace on the team. As someone who contributes on both ends of the floor she has shown time and again that she thrives in the system built around Alyssa Thomas. But what could this look like elsewhere?

What She Could Bring to Another Team

Rebounding and Unselfishness

It was easy to get lost in the shuffle on this end given that she played with the likes of Alyssa Thomas, Jonquel Jones, and Brionna Jones. That being said, Carrington was one of the best rebounding guards in the league last year. She boasted the sixth-highest rebounding rate among guards (9.2%) and was fourth in offensive rebounding rate (6.1%).

This is owed in large part to the fact that she never stops fighting. She uses her length and effort to outrebound anyone in her way. Even better, it rarely leads to her forcing up a bad putback. Carrington is a team player through and through. She is always looking for the cutter or open shooter before taking her own shots.

Energy like this is infectious and it endeared her to her teammates and coaching staff last year. Even with a new coach in place, this should still carry over. Carrington never stops being active and can score in a variety of ways. She can shoot and cut without requiring too high of a usage rate. This is invaluable for a team with four All-Star caliber players. Carrington came into the league wanting to win and play her role. If that shows on offense, it shines even brighter on the other end of the floor.

Defensive Activity

The activity being contagious is the name of the game for Carrington and she truly brings it on the defensive end. As one of the bigger wings on the team, Carrington is often tasked with being the point of attack and she immediately brings pressure often.

Picking up the Rookie of the Year as soon as she crosses the court is important here. The lead guard for Connecticut, Natisha Hiedeman, gives up six inches to Howard and does not have the length to fully bother her. While Carrington still gives up a little height, her effort is obvious. Turning offense into defense is a calling card and Carrington gets out in transition because of the effort she puts in.

Where From Here?

Usually, effort is what it takes to earn a coach’s trust, even more than statistical output. Perhaps it is only a matter of time (and healing from the offseason as White alluded to). Minutes for Carrington have crept over the last few games. If she is given the time, she is going to make an impact. For a team with such a high payroll, finding value in the margins is the way the roster gets taken over the top.

Carrington should be a part of this team’s future. If she is not, she will find a place in this league. Her nonstop effort and grit will not allow her to be left behind. You can bet on that.

The post Free DiJonai appeared first on Swish Theory.

The best way to finish off a season preview series is through predictions. It gives me as a writer a way to get my final thoughts out there. Also, it gives me the means to hold myself accountable when I get plenty wrong this year. So today I will be predicting the awards, standings, and champions ahead. Let’s get started:

First-Time All-Stars – Allisha Gray, Kelsey Mitchell, NaLyssa Smith

The All-Star Game rarely lends itself to new entrants. With such a high concentration of the top players in the league, it is tough to break through into the hallowed top 24. However, with so many players joining forces on a super team and a couple of notable stars retiring last year, there is little room to break through. 

It is astounding Allisha Gray has not broken through before. She has in every sense other than a labeled accolade. As a 3-point sniper and transition attacker, Gray brings an offensive variability that the Dream will truly appreciate. Her defensive acumen fits well on the fifth-rated defense from last year. She will finally get her recognition. 

Kelsey Mitchell should have been an All-Star last year. At the end of the year, she finished sixth in scoring. Through the All-Star break, Mitchell averaged 19.0 points and 4.0 assists while nailing 42.2 percent of her long-distance attempts. If Indiana had a better reputation across the league she would have been an easy inclusion. 

Even if they do not, two of their players are going to make it impossible to ignore that this season. Mitchell is going to benefit from plenty of open looks given the reshaping of the roster. Their record will not matter if she is pushing for the scoring title. The other, bridges the gap to the next section, while I also believe she will make her first All-Star appearance. 

Most Improved Player – NaLyssa Smith

NaLyssa Smith could easily have gotten lost in the shuffle last year. The Indiana Fever were not much talked about. The player drafted just in front of her, Rhyne Howard, took the league by storm and made the All-Star Game as a rookie. 

Smith was no one’s afterthought. She finished sixth in overall rebounds and proved to be a double-double machine. She then went on to Athletes Unlimited and earned the top award in the league. She is ready to grow and take the next step. 

Playing next to Aliyah Boston (more on her later) is only going to make things easier for the Rookie of the Year runner-up. Quietly Indiana is amassing an interesting grouping of talent and Smith is going to clearly benefit from it this season. It is easy to imagine her leading the league in rebounding and double-doubles. Yes, Boston will rebound in her own right, but Queen Egbo did that last year and Smith was undeterred. 

Smith is not the kind of celebrated star that destroys highlight reels. Her work is dirty, but effective. It is why she made sense next to Mitchell’s explosive scoring. This will also behoove her to grow alongside a face of a franchise like Boston. Fans of the game, however, will appreciate the growth she makes next year. 

Coach of the Year – Eric Thibault

If you have been keeping up with my previews, you are already fully aware of how high I am on the Washington Mystics. They did not necessarily have the starry offseason that others did, but their team is absolutely loaded with elite talent. Mike Thibault, the former champion and 3-time Coach of the Year, stepped down during the offseason. This made way for his son to step up and continue the legacy.

The younger Thibault has been with the organization for a decade and has paid his dues. Coming into a team that is as established benefits from hiring a coach from within that has been along for the highs (2019 championship) and lows (missing the playoffs in 2016 and 2021). Thibault is going to be awesome in this role. 

Elena Delle Donne being on the court more regularly will make Washington one of the feel-good stories of the season. The best defensive team from a season ago added Brittney Sykes to make life even worse for opponents. Shakira Austin is going to be even better. So much feels like it is leading to big things for Washington this season and Thibault seems like the most likely individual to be recognized. 

Sixth Player of the Year – Tiffany Mitchell

This may quickly look foolish if the Minnesota Lynx end up starting Tiffany Mitchell more often than not. However, she has all of the tools to be one of the most effective spark plugs off the bench in the league. In the two preseason games, she came off the bench once and proceed to lead the team in scoring. 

After starting less than half the games in her seven seasons in Indiana, Mitchell came to the Lynx for a bigger role. Even if that comes off the bench, Mitchell is ready to show plenty more. She took a step further as a shooter last season, drilling 38.7 percent of her long-distance attempts. The sample size was small, but if that continues she will likely lead the league in bench scoring. 

While this award is typically tough to predicate, having last season’s winner and runner-up move into starting roles, as well as past winners like Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby out of the running. This is a new direction for the award and someone is going to pop off in a new way. Mitchell is ready to shine in the new role. 

Rookie of the Year – Aliyah Boston

This is no disrespect to anyone else involved. I am a big Haley Jones fan. Diamond Miller is going to get a ton of opportunities with the Lynx to shine and will benefit from Napheesa Collier being there more than last season. However, this is Aliyah Boston’s award to lose. 

It is easy to forget that Boston suffered a leg injury last year that took some of the bloom off the rose of her as a prospect. Before that, she was considered a generational talent that fans were ready for their teams to build around. That has not changed despite the continued meteoric rise of Caitlin Clark. Boston is everything a team should want to build around. 

As a junior, Boston averaged 16.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Those numbers are clearly absurd. She will not be playing next to an All-Star-level power forward and a lethal scorer on the perimeter. Her life is going to be made easier than most number-one picks get to benefit from. 

We are in a special run of top picks. Rhyne Howard transformed a franchise. The future drafts are being hyped to another level. Boston is absolutely on that level and is going to be part of the Fever turnaround in earnest. 

Defensive Player of the Year – Brittney Sykes

This is past due. Yes, it is tough for guards to win this award. The only guards or guard/forwards to ever win it are Teresa Weatherspoon (twice), Sheryl Swoopes (three times), Debbie Black, and Alana Beard (twice). However, if there was ever someone to break that mold it is Brittney Sykes. 

Among starters who played at least 20 games, Sykes was second in steal rate. She has led the league in steals for two straight seasons and made three consecutive All-Defensive teams. Furthermore, Sykes just brought home the WNBL Defensive Player of the Year. This run of defensive dominance needs to be recognized at the highest level. 

The quiet part is that she is joining a roster loaded with defensive stalwarts. Four of the top 15 players in defensive win shares are on this team. Shakira Austin is going to be the anchor behind the rest holding everything together. This will allow Sykes to be her full bulldog self. 

MVP – Breanna Stewart

This pick breaks tradition. Since 2017, the MVP has been awarded to someone on the team with the best record in the league. While I will not be picking the New York Liberty to finish the regular season with the best record, it is going to be close. Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson were close last season (and have been for the last few years, even when Jonquel Jones won). They are likely to remain close in contention for this award as long as they remain in the league. 

So when picking between the two of them, I decided to focus on a different historical trend. No one has won back-to-back MVP awards since Cynthia Cooper took home the first two. Both of these players are playing with even more loaded teams than they have had in years past. They are both going to put up ridiculous numbers. 

Going one step further, I would predict the top three finalists to be Stewart, Wilson, and Rhyne Howard. Howard is going to be even better and the Atlanta Dream are going to push for home-court advantage in the first round. It is not too early to appreciate what kind of killer she is about to be.

Standings

1. Las Vegas
2. New York
3. Washington
4. Connecticut
5. Atlanta
6. Los Angeles
7. Dallas
8. Phoenix 
9. Minnesota
10. Chicago
11. Seattle
12. Indiana

Finals Prediction: Las Vegas Aces over the Washington Mystics

Nothing really to see here. Washington is my sleeper team of the season. However, if the bracket breaks that they have to go through both Las Vegas and New York without home court for either series, imaging coming out on top of both of those series is tough. 

These standings could be broken down into different tiers. The top three teams, to me, are the only true title contenders. Connecticut is close and remains pesky, but no one would really pick them to finish off the deal. Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Dallas feel like they are headed in the right direction but not necessarily good enough to get out of the first round. 

Phoenix could be the last playoff seed and everyone will be rooting for Brittney Griner’s return to the court. However, the overall roster feels more in line with the other also-rans. A few impressive individual talents but not quite on the level of the actual good teams.

The post WNBA Season Predictions appeared first on Swish Theory.

To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. The final preview is finally here and it is for the reigning champions, the title favorites, the true face of the league. Of course, I am referring to the Las Vegas Aces. Somehow, even after a stunning season, the team got even better. But before looking forward, let’s look back.

Almost everything went absolutely perfectly for the Las Vegas Aces a season ago. The featured player section this week should surprise no one, so we will get into A’ja Wilson’s accomplishments shortly. 

2022 Recap

Kelsey Plum exploded, realizing the potential she always hinted at with her play. She finished second in the league in scoring, posting a line of 20.2 points, 5.1 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game. In her first All-Star season, she was the All-Star MVP. 

Speaking of realized potential, goodness gracious Jackie Young took a step forward. She posted career highs across the board:  15.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Encouraged by new coach Becky Hammon, Young realized she was allowed to step behind the arc and let it fly. She attempted a career-high 3.4 per game and converted at a 43.1 percent clip. That is the second-best mark in the league for anyone attempting at least three per game (minimum 10 games). 

Chelsea Gray is the last player that got significant minutes that truly stood out, but man did she. The Point Gawd reached another stratosphere in the postseason, leading the team in points (21.7), assists (7.0), and steals (1.2) per game. This was the true difference-maker for the team overall. As the benches shortened and they were going for their first title, Gray stepped into a role she had not been asked to fill all season. 

Benches shortened is not a misnomer by the way. Only six players for the Aces logged more the 8.5 minutes per game in the postseason. That seventh player, Dearica Hamby, was once an integral part of this organization. The news around her treatment and departure from Vegas soured some of the good feelings. As there is still an ongoing investigation it is tough to comment broadly. But the Big Guard definitely deserved much better. 

Best in the World

If there was any debate or doubt, A’ja Wilson confirmed last season that she is the best player in the world. Yes, Breanna Stewart is tremendous and will continue to challenge the throne. But Wilson’s campaign was unassailable. 

Awards season was basically Aces season and Wilson brought home two of her own. The former Gamecock won her second MVP and her first Defensive Player of the Year, definitively outlining her two-way dominance. During the regular season, she averaged 19.5 points (fifth), 9.4 rebounds (second), 2.1 assists, 1.9 blocks (first), and 1.4 steals (12th) per game. At long last, like Jackie Young, Wilson was unleashed to let it fly from beyond the arc. The result, chef’s kiss.

Wilson truly blocked out the sun on one end of the court while remaining the definitive best player on the offensive end. Yes, Plum averaged more points per game. Even she would bow to the M’VP and acknowledge she was able to thrive because of the gravity of her teammate and the offensive game plan. Wilson is such a brilliant player that makes everyone around them better and is a true culture setter. 

Offseason Overview

Out: Dearica Hamby, Ji-Su Park, Iliana Rupert, Theresa Plaisance, Aisha Sheppard

In: Candace Parker, Alysha Clark

Re-Signed: Sydney Colson, Kiah Stokes

While this looks like a lot of names out and very few names in, that is exceptionally misleading. Hamby is an enormous loss but was almost completely out of the rotation during the title run. Again, the circumstances around her departure need to be looked into far more, but that is not for me to speculate. Sheppard, Plaisance, Park, and Rupert combined to log 85 minutes in the postseason. 

Adding Candace Parker and Alysha Clark, though, took the term super team to another level entirely. Clark is easy to forget about, as she was not quite herself coming off an injury last season. However, if she can get closer to form, having her as your sixth-best player is wild. Adding her to the third-best defensive unit that was lacking a lockdown wing is unfair. 

There is nothing else to say about Candace Parker that has not already been said. One of the absolute best of all time is joining the reigning champions to pursue another ring. She has shown in her two seasons in Chicago that she is willing to sacrifice individual numbers for team success. There is so much playmaking on this team already, and Parker only pushes that further. This team is going to be a joy to watch. 

Prediction

It should come as no surprise if Las Vegas finds themselves back in the WNBA Finals. Becky Hammon came to this organization (and stiff-armed NBA rumors this offseason) to build the next dynasty. Adding two championship-level pieces to their existing core is a home run. While they will walk away with less hardware individually this season, they will be back in the Finals.

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To build up, I will be going in reverse order from the standings a season ago. We move on to the team that for much of last season, everyone gave the benefit of the doubt. Coming off a title run on a .500 season, it was easy to assume everything would eventually click. 

For the 2022 Chicago Sky, the click never quite came at the highest level. 

2022 Recap

That may feel like a harsh statement for a team that finished with the best record in the league. Their advanced metrics, however, told the story of a team that was destined to come up short. They finished third in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. 

There were flashes of brilliance. Emma Meesseman was everything the team hoped for when they secured her out of nowhere. Azura Stevens took a noticeable leap, becoming one of the best bench players in the league. Courtney Vandersloot and Candace Parker are timeless. Kahleah Copper (more on her shortly) continued to cement herself as the face of this team. 

The inconsistencies reared their head at the worst possible time. After finishing the season 3-3 in August, the playoffs started with a surprising loss to the upstart New York Liberty. They were able to ultimately weather the storm, but the Sun were too much for them. Then came the rebuild.

Offseason Overview

Out: Candace Parker, Allie Quigley, Azura Stevens, Courtney Vandersloot, Julie Allemand, Emma Meesseman 

In: Elizabeth Williams, Courtney Williams, Isabelle Harrison, Marina Mabrey, Alanna Smith

Re-Signed: Astou Ndour-Fall, Rebekah Gardner

2023 Draft: Kayana Traylor, Kseniya Malashka

Watching four starters and two of the top reserves leave in one off-season would be crippling for any franchise. Candace Parker did what she came home to do, Courtney Vandersloot watched her wife step away and went elsewhere to continue to pursue winning. Azura Stevens is ready to be a starter in her own right. 

To their credit, Chicago did what they could to bring in talent. They gave up a lot to bring in Marina Mabrey: two first-round picks, swap rights on another first-rounder, two second-round picks, a third-round pick, and the rights to Leonie Fiebich. Mabrey came a long way in recent seasons with Dallas. She will have to continue on an All-Star trajectory to benefit her new backcourt mate. Elizabeth Williams is a steady hand and will provide depth behind fellow newcomer Isabelle Harrison. Courtney Williams, for better or worse, is not afraid of any moment. 

Perhaps the best move they made, though, was bringing back Rebekah Gardner. As a 32-year-old rookie, Gardner became a quick favorite of many for her tenacious defense and smart playmaking. She will be essential for the team if they hope to make a return to the postseason. 

However, no one is more important than Kahleah Copper. 

Her Team Now

From the moment she signed her new contract with the team following the title, Kahleah Copper was confirmed to be the future face of this team. She was rightfully the Finals MVP on a team loaded with standouts. This season, she was even better. 

Copper posted career highs across the board: 15.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. She knocked down 35.6 percent of her career-high 3.3 3-point attempts per game. But her aggression remains her defining factor. 

Tenacity is an understatement. She attacks the rim with reckless abandon no matter who is in front of her. She is able to be patient and wait to draw in defenders. Then she attacks and makes everyone pay for whatever mistake they may make. 

As good as she is in the half-court, attacking in transition might be her greatest strength. It was what Candace Parker noted in her immediately after coming to the team. She unlocked the All-Star potential in Copper and the latter is never looking back. Now, she is going to be relied upon to be the definitive number one option on a team. This season will be fascinating to watch her grow. 

Prediction 

Despite their best efforts to rebuild on the fly around Copper, this is going to be a down season. While the rest of the league is getting better, Chicago is noticeably much worse than they were a season ago. If everything breaks exactly right they may be able to sneak into the back end of the playoffs, but I would bet against it. 

For the fans of developing talent, though, this could be fun. Dana Evans has shown flashes in her two seasons and will be tasked with a much larger workload. Ruthy Hebard was a college standout and may finally get a chance to take a step forward. While this may come with a 10-seed, that is also part of the process.

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