The 3-point revolution was always coming to the NBA. It took a while, but by the time Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors ascended, the train had already left the station. Curry merely became the face of the movement, and why not? Whether fans realized it at the time, his volume and efficiency from deep wasn’t the foundation, it was the result. He moved like nobody else, ripping off absurd dribble combinations with the ball or re-defining the art of screen-usage away from it. But he is not the sole forefather of modern hoops. Curry is an anomaly. The greats always are.

Caitlin Clark’s impending selection at #1 by the Indiana Fever in the 2024 WNBA Draft is not the genesis of the next era of women’s basketball; it’s been coming for a while. The Clark-less 2023 WNBA season set viewership records all over the place, and will continue to do so as the next generation of hoopers set to dazzle us. Just look at the talent-pool that will remain in the NCAA next season.

The talent boom is here, and as evolution goes, it was made possible by the singular talents of the past, names who new women’s hoops fans (many introduced by Clark) may not be familiar with, but are unknowingly reaping the benefits of. 

Caitlin Clark The Phenomenon is a cocktail of the work done by past legends, which has led to exploding interest in the women’s game, in part thanks to social media, which fixates on her must-see matchups at Iowa, which needed a formidable dancing partner. But the key ingredient is Caitlin Clark The Player, as dazzling as she is effective.

The ease with which Clark flings 30-footers both off-the-dribble and off-the-catch creates defensive emergencies near half-court. Clark then has both the ball-handling flexibility and passing chops to access the best response to any coverage, not to mention, she’s six-feet tall. In each of her last three seasons at Iowa, she grabbed over seven boards a game, which ignited the Hawkeyes’ transition game thanks to Clark’s ability to throw 70-foot outlets for layups. She is a terrifying offense unto herself.

None of her individual skills are entirely unprecedented, but the whole package just might be. Caitlin Clark likely isn’t the greatest WNBA prospect ever, nor the greatest raw talent ever. But she is an anomaly, and that’s why she’s going #1.

Lucas Kaplan

2. Cameron Brink, Stanford

Cameron Brink’s intersection of 2-way paint dominance and scoring versatility is virtually unprecedented. A likely #1 pick in a typical draft class, she pairs a refined drop big skillset with touch indicators that suggest elite playfinishing upside on the other end. 

On offense, Brink projects to contribute primarily with the ball out of her hands. She served as an offensive focal point for Stanford, taking on a heavy playmaking load (2.8 assists/2.4 turnovers in 25 mpg) operating out of the post, but it seems more likely she evolves into a do-it-all connector at the next level. Perhaps not the physical outlier it takes to be a go-to WNBA post scorer, her touch from the perimeter and reliability as an interior finisher should allow Brink to maintain a diverse shot profile. 

While her jumper inconsistency points to limitations as a scorer, Brink has all the tools to be effective on a play-to-play basis. She dominates the offensive glass to the tune of three boards per game, and can be deployed in a variety of ways. In any given set, Brink can be found setting physical screens, spacing from three or rolling to the basket, effective across the board even if not elite. Most of all, Brink plays with a good sense of how to bend a defense, and plays with her trademark intensity to carry ideas out.

Brink is a monster rim protector, leading the NCAA in blocks while being second in defensive boards. At 6’4’’ with a 6’8″ wingspan, Brink can cover massive amounts of territory quickly, and she pairs this with an aggressive help style, not afraid to leave her feet. This can lead to foul trouble, with three or more fouls for the majority of her games this season, but also allows her to be an intimidating deterrent to keeping out of her lane.

The figures are staggering for Brink: opponents shot a miniscule 39% at the rim when she was on the floor compared to 54% when she was off. Stanford gave up 77 points per 100 possessions with her on the court compared to 95 when she was off. It is not just the tape – where she can be seen soaring and destroying shot attempts – which prove she can lead a very good WNBA defense. Let Brink sit in drop defense, or even a high drop and let her cover the entire paint. While her lateral mobility is good rather than great, her length, effort and timing make it so that hardly matters.

Cameron Brink finds herself at #2 for two reasons: Caitlin Clark is in this class, and no other player can contribute as much on day one while still providing sky-high upside. As dominant as they get in the interior, Brink will terrorize opponents for years to come. Should her shot continue to develop and offense branch out, it is difficult to project how high Brink’s impact could be. Don’t underestimate the floor or the ceiling.

Oscar

3. Rickea Jackson, Tennessee

To keep it simple, Rickea Jackson is a walking bucket. However, her scoring arsenal is the absolute opposite of simple. Jackson’s top 4 scoring possession types this season were pick and roll, post-ups, spot-ups, and transition. Her scoring frequency in these possessions goes as follows: 86 pick and roll possessions, 86 post-ups, 84 spot-ups, and 80 transition possessions. If you created a pie chart of Rickea’s scoring distribution, she would have four nearly even slices in these four categories, which is incredibly rare for dominant scorers. What makes this even more impressive is that she is labeled “good” or above in all 4 (being 70th percentile or higher in three out of the four). There are players who are jack of all trades, master of none as scorers, but I would say that Rickea is a jack of all trades with the potential of becoming a master of all.

Another stat that puts her scoring dominance into perspective: Rickea Jackson has led her respective teams (Mississippi State and Tennessee) in scoring for the last five seasons. Looking closer at her scoring tools, Rickea is currently blossoming into a three-level scorer. She is one of the best rim scorers in this draft, converting on 66.4% of her 197 attempts around the basket. Jackson displays excellence in both finishing off drives and on post-ups, as her touch and ability to finish through contact are quite advanced. She has incredibly impressive stride length, burst and functional strength, allowing her to get into the lane with ease. Rickea combines these eye-popping athletic traits with her technical skills in generating advantages off rip-throughs and ball control when making finishing adjustments. This culmination of abilities is an absolute nightmare for any matchup she faces, and is a big reason for her general scoring dominance.

When the rim is rarely walled off by opposing defenders, Rickea can go to her favorite counter: the short mid-range. Jackson shot 42.7% on 96 short mid-range attempts this year, which is such a vital counter for scorers in the WNBA. She does a great job of recognizing when to initiate contact to get into these shots and is very good at perceiving open shooting windows. Jackson is also comfortable pulling up for long 2s as well, and she was in the 66th percentile in efficiency on these shots this past season. As for her outside jumper, Rickea Jackson has made lots of progress on this shot in the last five seasons. Since her freshman year, she has nearly tripled her volume of three point attempts while shooting 32.6% from outside this past season. She profiles as primarily a catch and shoot threat from deep, though she has shown flashes of three point pull-up shooting as well.

On the other side of the ball, Jackson is a solid wing/forward defender who is capable of taking on tough assignments. Jackson’s large offensive load has led to some inconsistencies from her defense in the past, but she seems to be finding the intersection between the high offensive volume and steady defense. She’s a quick lateral mover and is able to use her length to disturb ball handlers. Defensive rebounding is a strong suit of Jackson’s, as she aggressively attacks the glass and can get rebounds over taller players. 

All in all, Rickea Jackson’s game should translate seamlessly to the WNBA level, and the reasons above are why I believe she deserves to be a top 3 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft.

Josh Abercrombie

4. Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina

Kamilla Cardoso is always in control while staying dynamic, executing an essential role for the national champion South Carolina Gamecocks. The 6’7’’ big was the low post hub for Dawn Staley’s squad, posting and reposting with perhaps the best hands in class. Despite not starting until her senior season, Cardoso did not miss a beat, putting up per 100 possession numbers of 31 points, 21 rebounders and 5.3 blocks on 61% true shooting.

Cardoso’s size and athleticism bode well for her ability to fit in at the next level. She uses her length to wrangle in awry passes or block difficult shots, but more importantly has the sensibility for how her presence fits into scheme. She does not linger with the ball nor get complacent on the defensive side, making quick, fruitful decisions for her team.

In particular, I am optimistic in Cardoso’s ability to be a high-low threat. Her skill in the post allows her to get to the backboard, slipping past her defender, in the 88th percentile for layup efficiency on 289 attempts. But just as important is her passing acumen, slinging the ball with velocity and accuracy either to shooters spotting up form low post or entry passes from the high post. This ability prevents hard help from any angle.

Cardoso may not set the agenda on either side like the players higher up on this list. But she is extremely likely to be a useful WNBA player, already proven to execute at the highest adequacy possible at the collegiate level. Her interior dominance will translate, as will her general athleticism and feel for the game. A high floor prospect who can give starter minutes right away, I view her as the #3 player in the class, #4 on our consensus board.

Matt Powers

5. Aaliyah Edwards, Connecticut

In her senior season for the UConn Huskies, Aaliyah Edwards was the team’s unsung hero in their run to the Final 4. Bringing an incredibly versatile skillset to the table, she averaged 32.6 points, 17.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.1 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 100 possessions this season. Edwards has a unique way of leaving an impact on every single possession, boasting a degree of role malleability that is only rivaled by the game’s brightest stars.

Offensively, Edwards was often seen as both a playmaking hub out of the high post and as a play finisher. With excellent touch and a knack for creating contact, post-up scoring has become a massive strength for her. Over 117 post-up possessions this year, she shot 67.4% and generated 1.197 points per possession (PPP), ranking in the 96th percentile in efficiency. By scoring in the low, mid and high post alike, she can be deployed as a scorer from many spots despite her lack of a three point shot. As a primarily standstill shooter, she converted 36.4% of her 83 long mid-range attempts this season. This standstill jumper threat allows her to attack bigs off the dribble when they close out too aggressively, allowing her to get into her driving game.

Within UConn’s delay sets, Edwards was almost always the team’s ball handler at the top of the key when in the game. She excelled at making schemed reads in the flow of the offense, such as executing high-low passes, hitting 45 cutters in stride, and executing dribble handoffs. Her excellence in dribble handoff situations stems from an outstanding ability to make contact on screens and a keen sense for angles. Moreover, her capability to keep the ball in these situations and drive to the basket sets her apart from most DHO bigs. Coordination, functional handle, touch around the rim, and the ability to pass out are essential for a DHO big, and she absolutely exceeds in all of these requirements.

Defensively, Edwards did a magnificent job this season anchoring the second-best Power 5 defense in the country. One area that she excels in is her pick and roll coverage versatility, as she is capable of executing nearly any coverage there is. She can temporarily switch onto ball-handlers, hard hedge, and play a deep drop due to her combination of mobility and feel for space. When defending drives, her strength, lateral quickness, and active hands all pop off the screen, as she is able to shut off potential layups around the basket. She is also a solid rim protector when playing down low, though her 3.5% block rate may not stack up to some of the other anchors in this draft. As a result, she makes up for a lower block rate with a 3.1% steal rate. Edwards is great at intercepting poor post entry passes, a microskill that will certainly translate to the pros. Finally, her help instincts are very strong, as she consistently makes necessary rotations to prevent points from being scored.

Josh Abercrombie

6. Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State

Jacy Sheldon is a dynamic, offensively skilled guard with the Ohio State Buckeyes. She brings great two-way value and will slide in well for many different team constructs, as she figures to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft after a solid college career.

Offensively, Sheldon fills the role of “combo guard” to a tee, being capable of playing across both guard positions with her ability to be a value-add at the point guard position by helping to move the ball in transition, make solid reads in early offense, and get a team into their sets. However, in my opinion she trends more towards being an off-guard with her ability to shoot the ball from range at a steady clip (37% from three on 5 attempts a contest this past season) and mainly scoring-focused play on that end. Although just 5’10”, she plays much bigger than her size offensively, showcasing the ability to get downhill and finish through contact. I think offensively Sheldon is truly a three-level scorer.

Defensively, although Sheldon’s steal numbers are slightly inflated due to Ohio State’s propensity to utilize a full court press as their main defense, she is still very active and disruptive on that end. She makes the most of her great physical tools and basketball instincts to stay in front of drivers, provide effective help defense, and monitor the passing lanes to pick off errant passes. Sheldon’s screen navigation skills are also solid, and just like Sheldon plays bigger than her height offensively, she plays longer than her length defensively, mixing her speed and athleticism to cause issues for offensive players.

Jacy Sheldon comes into the WNBA a ready-made player that will be able to contribute immediately. With the star power at the top of the draft she may not pop off the proverbial page the same way, and superstar upside is more than likely not in the cards. However, as a solid player who brings a winning mentality and great skillset as a player, Sheldon is almost guaranteed to be in the league for a long time.

Corban Ford

7. Angel Reese, LSU

Angel Reese’s strengths are obvious when she’s on the court: she plays with determination and she’s a leader. While these are soft skills, I’d argue they inform her technique. Reese uses her energy and exuberant posture to effect all events, big or small. Her passing stands out, but more the chaos of it, as she whips the ball across the court, totally unexpected. No player in the class (with an obvious exception) is more capable of keeping the opponent on their toes, or else they’re in trouble.

The cornerstone of Reese’s game, however, is the defense. Producing three stocks per game, Reese applies her strength with force, attacking the ball no matter the location. There is an elegance to her chaos that puts the opponent on their back heels. This frenetic intensity is perfect to keep the offense guessing, deterring shots through intimidation as much as technique. But, especially on defense, she has the latter, too.

The offense is not as polished, though ‘not as polished’ still provided 19 points per game. The finishing is the concern, at only 42nd percentile at the rim, and ultimately keeps her out of my top 5. But you’re drafting her for her defense, anyways, and she still maintained average or better efficiency on post-ups (though barely), putbacks, transition and cuts. She can win on the offensive end too, purely through effort.

Angel Reese’s athleticism at 6’3’’ and effort to produce make her a worthy first round pick. If the touch somehow comes around some more (she’s up to 73% from the line), the 2023 NCAA tournament champion and Most Outstanding Player would be worthy of top six consideration.

Matt Powers

8. Alissa Pili, Utah

There are few more fun players in college basketball than Alissa Pili. While short for her position as a power forward, Pili more than makes up for it with her strength and creative application of that strength. In any given possession she could be found twirling into an opponent’s stomach, either carving space for a drive, sealing off in the post, getting position for rebounds, etc. She has a knack for jumping at the perfect moment to snag a board from a big with better position. She is one of the most compelling players to watch for these reasons.

Oh, she is also a bucket. Averaging over 20 points for the second straight season, Pili shot at the 89th percentile at the rim, 93rd percentile off the catch and 95th percentile off the dribble. She was 89th percentile at the rim and 82% from the line. Raising her three point attempts from 2 to 4 per game, cashing 40%, she provided valuable spacing for the Utah Utes.

This scoring and, especially, spacing is essential to her success at the WNBA level. Her clear weakness is foot speed in space, where I’d be anxious to see Pili guarding anywhere near the perimeter (even in spite of her well-timed swipes). But spacing the floor to this degree means you have to beat Pili at her game first.

Pili is not just a dazzlingly fun watch, but also flat out can play. Her team was 20 points better in net rating with her on the court, and she was top ten in the country in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). The W adaptation might take a minute, but the upside – especially as a scorer – is worth the first-round shot. 

Matt Powers

9. Nyadiew Puoch, Southside Flyers

One imagines Nyadiew Puoch’s WNBA role similar to that with the Southside Flyers: low usage, high activity. Despite showing some signs of handle, passing and scoring, there are too many rough edges in Puoch’s current game, technical details that need fixing, to expect any significant contribution right away. But if she could keep developing, perhaps by continuing to play overseas after being drafted, there is the outline of a solid WNBA contributor.

Puoch’s athleticism is the ceiling-raiser, with great mobility which combines well with consistent effort. In particular this shows on the defensive end, where her long wingspan and constant motion make areas of the court treacherous for her opponent. This athleticism and effort can be misguided, however, applied at the wrong time by accidentally walling off a teammate or turning her head at the wrong time. Normal issues for a 19 year old playing in a pro league, but issues nonetheless that would limit her WNBA immediacy.

Similar to her defensive strengths, the offense runs through activity and event creation, and also needs some polish. She is a constant blur of motion at her 6’3’’ size, circumventing an opponent with ease on cuts or in transition. While she should have no issue creating looks with this activity, and, it should be noted, her flashes of handle, it’s the finishing that is questionable. Puoch only shot 40% from the field, even while receiving these easier looks heading towards the rim. Her 67% from the line suggests the same: there is something to work with, even if the current result isn’t perfect.

Puoch has displayed this upside through scoring outbursts here and there, and, most importantly, pushes her creativity through sometimes adventurous passes or drives. But when it clicks, it really clicks, and one imagines the potential should her accuracy and feel improve even only a little bit. Early minutes would be difficult to come by, but with any additional development, Puoch could make her presence felt. If one of the handle, shot or passing continues to improve, Puoch could see real starter minutes. For this reason, she is a Swish first round pick.

Matt Powers

10. Charisma Osborne, UCLA

Charisma Osborne has one skill representative of her overall game: she is the best screen runner in class. When you try to knock Osborne out of a play, she hits you with speed first, getting low with flexibility but keeping her strength to stay on her path. She accelerates from there, with textbook closeout form. She has the tools, and the feel, and the technique. And you don’t want to mess with her.

Osborne was the best player on the 27-7 Bruins, where they had a +49 net rating (yes, net rating not plus-minus) when she was on the court, 21 points better than when off. While her three point percentage is disappointing for a guard, she is not without technique: she shot a shocking 90% from the line and an effective 71st percentile on 140 off-the-dribble jumpers. On 110 spots up, 91st percentile. She was 71st percentile on finishes, too: maintaining good but not great touch. When you take into consideration the shot context, her 32% three point percentage looks a lot less concerning.

But the real plus-value comes from everything else. The defense and defensive versatility (2x Pac-12 All Defense) mixed in with the ball distribution (2.1 assist to turnover ratio) make her the perfect connector. She can spark an offense by driving, too, and was strong out of the pick and roll (85th percentile on 100 possessions). 

While she faced some issues with scoring consistency due to lacking access to bankable buckets, she is always consistent in her effort and finding other ways to contribute. She may not look like a franchise cornerstone, but Osborne can raise the ceiling of a very good team, or keep a very good defense tied together with her activity and athleticism. These factors all make Osborne a Swish first round pick, and even higher on my personal board.

Matt Powers

11. Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech

Elizabeth Kitley’s draft stock will be a tricky evaluation for WNBA teams to make. She was one of the most productive and dominant players in all of college basketball last year, but she suffered a season ending ACL tear late in the 2022-2023 NCAA season, putting her ability to play her rookie season in jeopardy. Despite this setback, I believe that Kitley deserves to be a first round pick and fully expect her to bounce back stronger than ever.

Kitley’s superpower comes in post scoring – she racked up 303 post-up possessions this year and scored 300 points from these possessions. Before she even receives the ball, Kitley has an innate sense of when to duck in and where to initiate contact to carve out easy scoring opportunities. After Kitley receives the ball, she gets to put her impeccable footwork on display. Her patented move is her Dirk fadeaway, as her height and precise touch makes this an absolutely unguardable move. On 109 mid-range jumpers this season (mostly Dirk fades), Kitley shot a whopping 54.1%, including 59.5% on 37 long mid-range attempts. Pairing this with her 70.7% shooting around the rim, and defenses are almost forced to double her.

Teams all year had to pack the paint and double Kitley from a variety of locations, triggering double teams from areas all over the court. Some bigs struggle to respond to this, but Kitley did a good job of taking advantage of the attention she received. She showed a solid feel of passing out of double teams this season, as she displayed the ability to hit the open player to create a numbers advantage for Virginia Tech. 

Detractors of Kitley’s pro prospects cite her lack of mobility on defense as a potential swing skill for her. I am a bit less worried about this, as whatever team selects her will likely play her in a deep drop like she played at Virginia Tech. Even when she does have to cover drivers in face-up situations, she is fairly good at flipping her hips if she gets initially beat. While around the rim, Kitley is a great shot-blocker, using her length and great ball tracking to erase potential scoring opportunities. 

Kitley may not end up being a team’s primary scorer like she was for Virginia Tech, but I fully trust her ability to scale down and provide productive minutes for any team that selects her. She has the upside to take advantage of switching defenses with her post work, and can still be a big time late-clock scoring threat due to her fadeaway.

Josh Abercrombie

12. Celeste Taylor, Ohio State

Celeste Taylor is a defensive minded guard entering the draft from Ohio State after a solid college career that included stops at both Texas and Duke. The 5’11” guard is a chaos agent on the defensive end, generating deflections and steals at a high rate and using solid lateral quickness and speed to keep in front of the main offensive perimeter players of opposing teams, staying attached even through various off-ball actions and around any screens that she may encounter. Taylor’s defense is extremely impactful, and that skillset alone will guarantee her rotation minutes at the next level.

Offensively, Taylor’s swing skill is her jump shot. Once a relatively big weakness, she has improved her outside shooting each year over her college career (from 28% to 33% from three), and in addition to doing so she has also grown as a shot maker and advantage creator on the offensive end. Her mid-range game is smooth and she does a good job operating in that space, especially off of ball screens, and she can find open teammates adequately. With that being said, as disruptive as Taylor is defensively, the offensive game will have to improve to achieve the higher end outcome as a player in the WNBA.

Taylor will be a positive player with her defensive versatility and ability to function as a very scalable role player at the next level. Her improvement as a jump shooter suggests that there is continued growth to be had, and if she is able to continue to develop that in addition to being an advantage creator defensively, then Celeste Taylor can prove to be one of the great steals of draft, either late in the first round, or early in the second.

Corban Ford

13. Leila Lacan, Angers

Leila Lacan ends up as the #13 prospect on our big board, but this was not a consensus placement. I touted Lacan as the #5 prospect on my personal board, easily the highest of any contributor.

Even Lacan’s detractors will note the sell is quite easy. Lacan will turn 20 on June 2, and has been a key contributor for the French club Angers, which competes in the country’s top-tier league. In both league and FIBA play, Lacan has shown glimpses of every skill you could want from a big-time combo guard at 5’11”.

Lacan is a plus-athlete for her size, winning at the offensive point-of-attack by adding a plus-handle to impressive speed and length. From there, Lacan has shown the ability to hit any passing read that the defense gives her, whether it’s a pocket pass, a skip, hitting cutters, you name it. On the other end, she puts her tools to good use, leading the French league in steals this season with 3.2 a game versus just 2.5 fouls.

But as a devout believer, I admit the sell against Lacan in the first-round is also easy to make. She’s 19, yes, but her youth serves more as a point of comfort vs. genuine excitement. It’s a reason to ignore her shooting in the low-40s from two and, despite multiple games with deep, pull-up triples, shooting in the low-30s from three.

Lacan is the shiny mystery box of the 2024 WNBA Draft, a young prospect whose highlight reel is deserving of a lottery pick. Only 19! Perhaps I’ve been duped, too focused on what could be than what actually is. There’s no guarantee Leila Lacan puts it all together; for all the intrigue, she’s hardly ahead of schedule as a prospect. 

So, who’s gonna take the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

14. Helena Pueyo, Arizona

Helena Pueyo, a 5th year senior out of Arizona, has a case for best perimeter defender in this year’s WNBA draft. Her ability to make plays defensively jumps out both on film and the stat sheet, averaging a staggering 4.1 stocks (steals + blocks) in her final year of college. She’s able to rack up steals, blocks, and deflections so easily thanks to incredible hand-eye coordination and natural defensive instincts off the ball. 

Pueyo also developed into a solid offensive player over her time in college, albeit a low usage one. She’s a dependable shooter from both 3pt and midrange, capable of making shots both off-the-dribble and in catch and shoot scenarios. She’s also a good passer, despite not being a great creator overall, and is very adept at keeping the ball moving and making good decisions within the flow of offense. Helena’s real strength offensively, though, is as a finisher, where she made real growth as an upperclassmen. Despite mediocre finishing numbers throughout her first 3 years in college Pueyo shot an outstanding 75% at the rim her final two seasons, one of the highest numbers in this year’s draft. Overall, her lack of high-end ball handling or athleticism holds Pueyo back from being a threatening on-ball creator, but she has a very strongskill set for fitting into a complementary offensive role. 

Pueyo doesn’t project to be a star, but she’s very good at what she does. Between her tenacious defense and the offensive skillset to compliment other players, it’s not hard to envision her as a reliable perimeter role player in the W. 

AJ Carter

15. Nika Mühl, Connecticut

When you think of Nika Mühl’s game two things immediately come to mind: passing and defense. A 2x Big East DPOY, Mühl is an outstanding perimeter defender. She doesn’t rack up steals at as high of a rate as other guard defenders, but her ability to defend one-on-one is about as good as it gets. She’s hard to create separation against on the perimeter, fights over screens well, and isn’t afraid to play with toughness and physicality when cross-matched onto larger players. Despite UConn losing to Iowa in the tournament this year, Mühl’s defense against Caitlin Clark was truly outstanding in that game. Mühl is also an incredible passer and playmaker for others, backed by the fact that she’s UConn’s all-time leader in assists – obviously a tremendous accomplishment at a school as storied as UConn. 

The main area of weakness for Mühl right now is as a scorer. She isn’t very aggressive looking for her own shot and actually has more assists than points scored over the last 2 seasons, which is rare to see. The positive for Mühl though is that she does possess enough of a skillset as a scorer to where teams still have to respect her. She shot 36% from 3pt for her career at UConn including over 40% as a senior, so it’s not as if defenses can just leave her open on the perimeter. She also finishes at the rim at an above average rate and is comfortable making an open mid-range jumper, so it’s clear that Mühl can make shots from various spots on the floor when needed despite not looking to shoot much. 

All things considered Mühl has a valuable skill set despite never posting eye-popping numbers in college. She’s an outstanding defender and passer, can make open shots, and is backed by a very impressive college resume. That package of skills and pedigree makes Mühl an intriguing prospect to watch and worthy of a draft pick. 

AJ Carter

16. Dyaisha Fair, Syracuse

From the WNBA’s inaugural season in 1997 until the 2022-2023 season, ten players had joined the illustrious 3,000 points club. Seven of them went on to be all-stars in the WNBA, with many of them establishing themselves as some of the WNBA’s best. This past season, two new players entered the 3,000 points club: projected #1 overall pick Caitlin Clark and Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair. 

Selecting one of the most productive scorers in college basketball’s long history seems to be good draft process, and it also seems to be strong process to select one of the most prolific pull-up shooters in college basketball history as well. Dyaisha Fair fits into both of these categories. Fair was first in the country in points per game off pull-up jumpers this season at 10.6 ppg, 1.3 ppg higher than the tie for second place between Caitlin Clark and Juju Watkins (the top two scorers in all of college basketball). Among the leaders in pull-up three point attempts per game, Fair ranks second overall in pull-up three point attempts per game while shooting an incredible 39.7% on these looks. The next player shooting as efficiently or more efficiently on pull-up threes as Fair ranks 29th in pull-up 3 point frequency, shooting under half the amount of attempts of Fair. She is able to get into these looks off a variety of size-up combinations, but her most effective move may be her mis-direction stepback. This move blends synergistically with her effective between the legs move, which she often uses to open up driving lanes. 

More on pull-up shooting, Fair’s pull-up mid-range continues to be an important counter for her. Fair is more than capable of knocking down incredibly difficult mid-range attempts, often patiently double clutching on shots to avoid the outstretched arms of her defender. The threat of her mid-range helps her create easier looks around the basket, as defenders have to guard incredibly close to her at all times. Fair is a very creative finisher around the basket, making super difficult adjustments to open up looks at the basket.

The skill that brings together her incredible mix of scoring tools is her unbelievable handle. Fair’s career highlights are full of ankle breakers that would be many players’ best career plays. She is unbelievably shifty with the ball in her hands, creating easy driving lanes and open shooting windows. However, she is also more than capable of creating for others. One of my favorite microskills of Fair’s is her ability to rise up into a jumper, only to throw a dump-off pass at the apex of her jump. Her scoring prowess demands tons of attention from the defense, and she is quite good at finding teammates in advantageous scoring positions.

People that are low on Fair always talk about her short stature, but this has never stopped Fair from reaching the highest heights in basketball. They also tend to cite her defense as a weakness going forward, but Fair has some valuable defensive traits that will go a long way for her. For starters, Fair is a ball-hawk on defense, often making tough plays on the ball in passing lanes. Her quickness and instincts allow her to make these plays, and on the ball she is able to disturb ball-handlers with her quick hands. Fair is finally beginning to deservingly receive praise as a potential WNBA prospect, and I believe she can make an instant impact for any team that selects her.

Josh Abercrombie

17. Isobel Borlase, Adelaide

It is an uphill battle to be a dribble-pass-shoot threat in the WNBA, given the saturation of talent at the top. It is very difficult to get on-ball reps, especially as a young player, which gives me some hesitancy in projecting Isobel Borlase to get the development she needs against the highest competition in the world. But she has shown flashes of elite scoring and productivity against professional competition that suggests the payoff may be worth it.

As a starter on the Adelaide Lightning, Borlase gets daily experience playing next to and against WNBA players, most notably having as teammate the Chicago Sky’s Brianna Turner. While her outside shooting efficiency has been mediocre – only shooting 28% from three and 74% from the line – she has shown real signs of rim finishing through attacking the rim on the move. 

Borlase is a creative passer and effective ball-mover, even if she averages more turnovers than assists. The heightened competition compared to NCAA basketball makes efficiency production tougher to come by. But Borlase has shown stretches of dominance, putting up 31 point (on 12-16 shooting) and 25 point (on 7-13 shooting) games this season. The consistency needs improvement but is no surprise to lack in a 19 year old.

Betting on Borlase means you have space to allow her to continue to explore her versatile scoring and budding on-ball equity, trusting her to iron out the details over time. A solid athlete at 5’11’’, Borlase’s ability to fit in against competition above her years is a great sign she’ll figure it out in the WNBA, too.

Matt Powers

18. Kiki Jefferson, Louisville

Kiki Jefferson, like the other guard prospects given second-round grades on our big board, has flaws. But Jefferson is a well-rounded five-year college player that made the jump from James Madison to Louisville for her final year, and while her averages went down, no longer the alpha, Jefferson improved.

She shot 51.2% on twos, which is where the majority of her offense could come from in the W. She has a release built for the mid-range, and at 6’1” with serious core strength, Jefferson can get to that shot when she wants or drive to the rim, where she shot 54.3% last season, according to Synergy.

Jefferson shot 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes last season, taking just over two per game, occasionally reluctant to fire but hardly looking incompetent when she did. Those looking for optimism with Jefferson’s shot can point to her career free-throw mark of 81.5%, which jumped to 88.4% at Louisville.

None of this is wildly impressive, to be sure. Nor is the 2.3:2.1 assist:turnover ratio. The sell for Jefferson, my #14 prospect, is simple: She’s malleable. There’s more offensive talent to work with than, say Nika Mühl, but she possesses all the tools to reasonably hold her own on defense. Jefferson may not set up your offense on every possession, but you’ll feel comfortable with her handling in transition.

Kiki Jefferson is a multi-talented hooper. She just needs a bona-fide WNBA skill to pop. Will any team give her the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

19. Taiyanna Jackson, Kansas

Taiyanna Jackson may not be the most versatile player in this draft, but she does have one elusive quality: she protects the rim, and very well. At 6’6’’, Jackson was dominant on the defensive interior. Opponents shot 27% against her at the rim, only one percentage point higher than likely early first round pick Kamilla Cardoso. She blocked 6.5 shots per 100 possessions, exceeding even that of Cardoso, using her long wingspan and long strides to make plays from distance.

She has some significant holes in her game, most notably her careless passing, at a 0.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as her free throw shooting at 49%. But she has a presence on the interior on offense, as well, a 95th percentile finisher at the rim. If a team can hone in on these strengths and limit her role to her specialties, she could outperform.

Athleticism can get you on the court and Jackson has that in spades, a fluid mover for her size who engulfs opponents to snag the ball on either glass, and is mobile enough to patrol the entirety of the paint. You can trust her to deter shots on defense and pressure the rim on offense. These are bankable traits, even when considering the weaknesses.

A team needing a backup rim protector who can post up and crash the glass should take a long look at Jackson after the first round. While she lands near the end of our board, her tools are strong enough for her to return value far above, especially if she can clean up the weaknesses.

Matt Powers

20. Hannah Jump, Stanford

Scheme versatility is essential to a functioning WNBA offense, but most important is the ability to execute generally. With constant off-ball motion and dedicated actions, having a player you can trust to do her job is monumental. Enter Hannah Jump.

She may not be the most well-rounded in her game, with assists, rebounds, steals and blocks all below NCAA average. She has one of the lowest free throw rates I have ever seen, taking a career 68 free throws compared to 1,195 field goals. But she also hardly makes mistakes, noted by a very strong 2.5 assist to turnover ratio. Those are players you can work with.

While she plays a passive role, she is also an important play finisher. She is Stanford’s leading three point shooter in the history of the program, with 364 made threes out of 890 attempts to hit a stellar 40% efficiency. She doesn’t just shoot off the catch, though she does at an excellent 94th percentile rate, but also off the dribble. The threat of her running off of screens is compounded by having to stop her off of handoffs, in pick and roll, spotting up in transition. Her three point versatility is as important as the volume. 

As a specialist with many limitations, Hannah Jump isn’t likely to be a WNBA starter, and has an uphill battle to be a role player. But with bankable skills shooting from distance and limited mistake-making, she has a chance. For that reason, she finds herself in Swish Theory’s top 20.

Matt Powers

The post Swish Theory’s 2024 WNBA Draft Board appeared first on Swish Theory.