Great playoff scoring runs are some of the most exciting things in sports, but how do they stack up to each other? Comparing playoff stats has always been difficult. Players play different amounts of games, and individual series can have drastically different scoring environments. Some are track meets while others are low-efficiency grindfests. To remedy that problem I am introducing “Modern Playoff Scoring Runs”, an app that aims to solve the problems listed above by using points per 75 possessions to account for pace of play and true shooting percentage relative to the series played in to help adjust for scoring environment. For example if a player has a 110 TS+ relative to the series they played in this means they were 10% more efficient than the average scorer in that series.
The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.
1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series
Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in.
2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series
Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%).
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series
SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.
4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series
Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.
5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series
Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.
6. Luka Doncic – DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series
Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)
7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series
Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.
8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series
Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.
9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series
KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.
10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series
Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.
Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving
Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs
Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol
Follow me @taylormetrics
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