2027 Draft Model All-Americans
For those unfamiliar with my DMX NBA draft model, it is a multiple linear regression model that projects NBA value over replacement for draft-eligible prospects based strictly on quantifiable data such as stats, age, and height. What differentiates DMX from other statistical draft models is that it is maximally broad and simplistic by design. Every player, from tiny point guards to seven-footers, and everyone in between, is projected using the same formula. As much as it is an evaluation tool, the model is really a curiosity or even a challenge: in a world where every prospect is closely scouted, analyzed, and scrutinized, how predictive can you be by instead taking such a broad-brush approach?
One of my favorite utilizations of the model is unearthing sleeper prospects by keying in on players who project as NBA caliber but have been overlooked by the draft industrial complex. Such is the basis of the “Draft Model All-Americans”, composed of the model’s highest-rated NCAA players at each position that are not listed on the mock drafts or overall rankings at ESPN or NBADraft.net. Decorated honorees from past years include Yaxel Lendeborg, Oso Ighodaro, Jaime Jaquez, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Kevin Huerter, and Dean Wade, and four previous selections (Lendeborg, Braden Smith, Maliq Brown, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie) were drafted in 2026. History suggests a few of these guys have NBA futures, so get them on your radar now before the season starts.
Guards
Leroy Blyden Jr. / PG / Kansas
HT: 6’1″
xVORP: .365
Leroy Blyden Jr. was one of the best mid-major freshmen in the country last year at Toledo, putting up 16.4 points, 4.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game while shooting 40% from three and nearly 85% from the foul line. Now Blyden will take his talents to Kansas, where he will gain exposure playing for a blue blood program alongside potential number one pick Tyran Stokes. I would not expect his production and/or efficiency to translate right away, but much like previous draft model All-American point guards Jalen Pickett (Siena → Penn State) and Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Belmont → Maryland → Tennessee), I think Blyden will eventually adjust to the heightened competition and settle in just fine.
Kayden Mingo / PG / Baylor
HT: 6’1″
xVORP: .321
Kayden Mingo picked up a lot of steam as a high school senior, finishing as the 35th ranked prospect in the RSCI with some even predicting him as a sleeper one-and-done draft pick. Overshadowed by a deep and productive freshman class and playing for a Penn State team that was among the worst in the power five conferences, Mingo’s draft hype faded as the season wore on, but the model never wavered on his NBA potential. The glaring issue with Mingo is that he is a wretched 3-point shooter, connecting on just 24% of his shots from distance and at relatively low volume. A downside of a one-size-fits-all model is that it can paper over weaknesses like poor 3-point shooting provided the player checks a lot of other boxes, which Mingo does. As a young freshman point guard tasked with carrying a heavy load, Mingo had a 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio and led the Big Ten with 2.1 steals per game, while his 57% 2-point percentage speaks to his handle, quickness, and craftiness. It will be interesting to see Mingo surrounded by more talent as a sophomore at Baylor including his brother Dylan, a five-star freshman, but ultimately his development as an outside shooter will determine his viability at the next level.
Forwards
Braden Frager / SF / Nebraska
HT: 6’7″
xVORP: .233
If small non-shooters are not your cup of tea, perhaps I could interest you in one of the best wing-sized shooting prospects in college basketball, Nebraska’s redshirt sophomore Braden Frager. Frager was a revelation for last year’s Cornhuskers who finished 16th overall on KenPom and reached the Sweet 16 for the first time in program history. Frager posted solid per 40 minute averages of 20.7 points and 6.6 rebounds (pace-adjusted), but what really stands out in his profile are his shooting splits and efficiency. The native Nebraskan shot just over 35% from three on 8.6 attempts per 40 minutes to go along with 80% free throw shooting and a staggering 68% 2-point percentage. The lethal wing shooter duo of Frager and senior Pryce Sandfort, who happen to be adjacent in the model’s rankings, could take Nebraska to new heights in 2027.
Tyrin Jones / PF / UNLV
HT: 6’10″
xVORP: .310
UNLV’s Tyrin Jones was another standout freshman who was unfairly lost in the shuffle last season. Jones has an unusual albeit intriguing stats profile marked by strong indicators of NBA upside (1.3 assists-to-turnover, 4.7 stocks per 40 minutes) and concerning red flags (49% free throw percentage, 7.3 rebounds per 40 minutes). Jones’ weirdness as a skinny, non-shooting big makes him a tricky projection, but there is enough statistical goodness there to bet on at 19 years old.
Center
Najai Hines / C / Connecticut
HT: 6’11″
xVORP: .396
What do you get when college basketball’s top returning defensive anchor joins forces with the game’s best offensive coach? We are about to find out as Najai Hines is poised to take over the coveted Donovan Clingan/Tarris Reed role for Dan Hurley and UConn. As a freshman at Seton Hall, Hines displayed elite defensive upside (5.7 blocks and 13.3 rebounds per 40 minutes) while showing signs of offensive competence. Hines is one of the more obvious breakout candidates in college basketball and I would expect to see him on NBA mock drafts in the near future.
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