This is the third part of a monthly recap covering all rookie-scale deal Warriors players, looking at the stats, film, and everything in between. To catch up on the first edition, check it out here, and look at part two here.
Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT. Stats current as of 12/31, only December games counted
Jordan Poole, Guard
December Stats: 15 games (14 starts), 28.9/2.9/4.2/0.5/0.2 per 75 poss, 56/33/89 splits, 21.5 AST%, 0.91 ATO, .324 FTR, .475 3PR
Well, it’s been a month for the fourth-year combo guard.
With Steph and Andrew Wiggins missing the latter half of December, Jordan Poole has become the primary catalyst for Golden State’s offense and has more than performed. He scored the eighth most total points of any player in the last month of 2022, shouldering a load he didn’t look capable of carrying early this season.
What’s more important is the lack of total cratering offensively for the whole team. Without their MVP-level Curry or second-most consistent scorer in Wiggins, Golden State should be one of the worst offenses in the league. Being the seventh-worst offense in their absence is far better than it sounds.
So, how is Poole keeping Golden State alive offensively as they navigate their time sans All-Stars?
Finally, Offensive Consistency
Within Poole’s 27 points per game in December are a lot of very encouraging developments. His drives per game have jumped from 8.8 to 10.9 in Steph’s absence, showing a consistent willingness to get downhill. Unsurprisingly, his free-throw attempts have jumped from 3.5 to 6.5 per game in the same time frame. Jordan is playing like the rim-pressure threat we know he can be.
The increase in paint pressure hasn’t led to the sort of playmaking boost you’d like to see, but with a lack of scoring options around him, it’s hard to blame Poole for hunting his shot a bit more over the past 8 games (19.1 AST% compared to 26.1% w/ Steph). It’s also resulted in a slight uptick in his total free-throw rate and a decline in his three-point rate over the month of December relative to his season averages, showing a player determined to find quality looks. What stands out to me most is the confidence he has rediscovered, pulling out all sorts of mixtape moves and finishing deep threes, wild finishes, and dribble moves with his funky celebrating style.
Though still not hitting the efficiency numbers he is capable of, Poole has displayed the confidence in his shot that we’ve been waiting to see. 32.6% from deep in December isn’t jumping off the page, but he’s getting up over 9 attempts per game. He was at 35% from deep in December before Steph went down, so here’s hoping he can find more impact going forward. The off-ball flashes this month will come in handy when Golden State’s MVP returns.
One thing to remember with Poole’s shooting: being solid enough, in consideration of the difficulty of his shot diet, does a lot to the defense. Take a player like Luka Dončić. This is the first time in five years making an above league-average percentage of threes, but his shot difficulty and frequency are incomparable to any other shooter. Defenses have to respect the looks, even if not hitting in the 40% range like the elite perimeter shot makers. Poole ending up in a similar space perimeter-wise would go a long way toward enhancing his drives and overall playmaking.
This all adds up to consistency. In December, Poole strung together four straight games with 20+ PPG on three separate occasions. Up until then, he only had one back-to-back 20-point performance. That is a player who has found the reliability this team so desperately needed.
Defense Still Theoretical
Unfortunately, reviews aren’t as glowing about Poole’s defense. He is still a weak link in their faltering armor, ranking as one of their worst defenders in terms of total opponent FG% and being routinely attacked in screen actions. They still have the back-line defenders to make up for the deficiencies when playing with the starters, but it needs to be better.
When building a defensive profile from the ground up, any signs of life are welcome. He can be pretty good when engaged and staying within himself, acting as a cog within the system:
It’s the off-ball lapses that still drive people a bit nutty, including myself. His tendency to follow the ball often leads to his man slipping away for cuts or finding extra room on the perimeter. Again, if he stays within himself and focuses only on his own man, Golden State has the defenders to make an impact if he contains his responsibilities.
Until we see tangible improvement on the whole, all we have to hold on to are the flashes. Hopefully, those flashes become trends in the new year.
Keep An Eye Out For…
What happens when Steph comes back?
Will Poole revert to his bench self from early in the year, struggling to make an impact? Or can he keep up this confidence and bring it to a bench unit starved for the offense he has been providing recently?
This is what it comes down to for me. He’s found the offensive consistency I called for in the last edition, and the new challenge is to keep the momentum going once Curry returns to the forefront of the offense. This version of Jordan Poole with a healthy starting unit gives Golden State as good of a top-six as any team in the league.
James Wiseman, Big
December Stats: 9 games (0 starts), 20.3/10/1.1/0.4/1.1 per 75 poss, 65/50/68 splits, .294 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 0.5 ATO
The pariah of Warriors Twitter showed signs of life to close the year, finding a way to make an impact with Golden State desperate for impact off the bench in the frontcourt.
Between November 7th and December 14th, Wiseman found himself playing in only 2 of Golden State’s 19 contests as he was moved down to Santa Cruz. Now he’s recorded playing time in 7 of the last 8 games, filling valuable minutes with many a Warrior out of the lineup; most notably, JaMychal Green has missed the last 6. But he’s not just a warm body, receiving more trust from Steve Kerr than ever before. How has James Wiseman accomplished this?
Impact Rebounding
Kevon Looney is one of the important cogs of Golden State’s defense for his ability to finish possessions, collecting 33% of available defensive rebounds when on the floor. JaMychal Green has been a serviceable player on the glass when Kevon sits, and his absence leaves the Warriors with only questions on the glass when going to the bench. Fortunately, Wiseman has found a way to step up.
In the month of December, only Looney has posted a higher share of defensive rebounds than Wiseman’s 35.1% mark. He’s looking more the part in addition to the statistical increases, using his frame to find bodies with more consistency and his length to reach the boards only some can get.
The increase in activity and technical skill has been a boon for his individual numbers, though not quite leading to the success for others you see out of Looney. He’ll have to improve at boxing his man out to get rebounding chances for the transition handlers, but he’s looking more the part of the 7-foot glass cleaner they had in mind.
Improved Drop Coverage
Wiseman has also found a way to create more impact with his defensive coverage. His spatial awareness in drop has looked better than it did early in the season, showing better hand activity and footwork to boot. You can see it all on display against Jalen Brunson on this drive:
A lot of his frustrating possessions have been marked by deep drops where guards can take short floaters or eat up space and get semi-contested shots at the rim. He’s starting to get a little higher to wall drives off earlier, showing increased confidence in his ability to recover backward and close off lobs or the weak side of the rim.
Though his opponent rim numbers haven’t shown improvement (75% in December), he sat at 66% before his recent call-up which was in Kevon Looney territory. Where the real improvement lies is in the distribution and limitation of the short midrange. Before the demotion, 33% of his paint attempts came in the short midrange, with opponents hitting 58% of those looks. Over this recent stretch, 47% of his paint attempts are short midrange, with opponents hitting only 31%. His exploration with a higher drop is creating a higher percentage of tough shots that he is contesting instead of giving up.
Part of what disappointed me with Wiseman’s defense early this year was the lack of variability. Ballhandlers, poppers, and rollers knew what to expect. A little more unpredictability could go a long way.
Finding Better Screen Angles
Another big struggle from the beginning of the season was impact screening. Wiseman still has a hard time finding the right way to get a true wipeout screen, but there have been improvements in his processing of where to be. You can see him making small adjustments based on the ballhandler and defender more often, and finding opportunities to slip on a regular basis.
When he’s actually making an impact with the screen, he’s shown some decisive possessions going downhill and finishing at the rim.
Positive strides in using screens for himself and for others are a great sign for his projected usage. The improved results should give him something to build on as the second half of the season approaches, and more importantly the eventual returns of JaMychal Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Steph Curry.
Keep An Eye Out For…
The impending rotation crunch.
If Golden State gets back to full health soon, will Wiseman have a role or return to Santa Cruz? That upcoming decision looms large over his next month. If staying around, building on his rebounding and screening impact could keep him in a low-minute role on a nightly basis. But if sent back down, James has to show he can dominate physically in the G while filling in his responsibilities as a 5.
Jonathan Kuminga, Forward
December Stats: 15 games (2 starts), 15.2/5.7/2.6/1.1/0.5 per 75 poss, 59/27/63 splits, .245 3PR, .422 FTR, 18.1 TRB%, 1.71 ATO
It’s apparent to anyone who watched Jonathan Kuminga’s development that his defensive impact is here to stay.
With Andrew Wiggins missing all but two games in December, Kuminga has been relied on as the top perimeter defender on the team, and the results are showing.
He’s making impact defensive possessions when Golden State needs them most. His rip on PJ Washington and defense on Damian Lillard to close tough wins during their recent four-game win streak show off how he can be a weapon anywhere. Defending bigger forwards, quicker guards, scoring wings, it’s all the same.
Let’s look closer at the breakout over the past month.
A Future All-Defensive Player Blooms
I have a hard time even counting the jaw-dropping perimeter possessions from Jonathan Kuminga this past month. His shutdown on Jordan Clarkson in a clutch situation against Utah was perhaps one of the most impressive:
His ability to guard any kind of ballhandler has put other teams on notice. With Memphis starving to get back in the game against the Dubs, they did everything they could to switch Kuminga off the ball to create offense, and he responded with quality help:
Adding to his excellent perimeter defense and blossoming help, he’s putting in more work on the glass. Finding the right spots to use his excellent vertical takes advantage of boxouts, and he can throw his weight around to deter glass crashers to boot. That approach will leave him with a well-rounded defensive game sooner than later, and his impact will be felt all over that end of the floor in due time.
There aren’t many words left to describe Kuminga’s defense other than begging you to track him on every defensive possession when he’s on the floor while Andrew Wiggins is out, and note the responsibilities he is given. And you can listen to Steve Kerr:
Taking His Drives
While Kuminga’s defense rightly gets the majority of the attention, he’s taking strides on offense as well. His drives per game have gone from 3.0 in October and November to 4.7 in December. On the season, he generates the fourth-highest percentage of points per drive among regular Warriors players. Adding more high-efficiency plays to a team lacking some primary offensive options has helped keep them afloat in important situations.
He’s showing off a variety of ways to beat the defense beyond his usual power-speed combination, showcasing footwork and off-hand finishing as a usable counter when he can’t get downhill instantly:
He’s shown himself to be capable of the spectacular as well, putting some Curry-esque high glass finishes off his drives:
What I’ve also enjoyed seeing is leveraging the playmaking for others. Kuminga has a higher pass percentage on drives than Steph, JP, and Draymond this season, showing a willingness to collapse the defense and find cutters or shooters. He’s finally starting to put results behind the intent. These slower drives give him better body control in addition to an extra tick to read the floor.
Last month I hoped to see more from Kuminga on his drives, and he has delivered when Golden State has needed offense more than ever. Further development as a drive-and-kick or rim-attack threat would majorly improve the Dubs’ offensive outlook going forward.
Stable Cutting
The Warriors rely on cutting as much as any team (97th percentile frequency this season, per Synergy) and Kuminga has taken strides to fit in. He ranks fifth on the team in total cut frequency and generates the sixth-highest PPP (1.29) which is a whisker above the team’s 1.283 average.
Over the past month, Kuminga’s cutting has proven crucial in clutch situations. His recognition of when to pick the right spot is apparent on this patient cut:
His physical tools and ability to pick good spots can be used to open things up for others, and he’s starting to recognize that:
Being a proficient driver and cutter would be all Golden State needs out of Kuminga offensively, given the personnel around him and his defensive value. He’s already pretty solid at both and seems to grow at a rapid pace. Who knows where his offensive value may lie by the end of the season?
Keep An Eye Out For…
Kuminga’s upcoming questions are similar to Wiseman’s, only in different degrees. When Steph, Wiggins, and JaMychal return to the lineup, where does Kuminga lie in the rotation? Is he 7th behind Poole, 8th behind Donte DiVincenzo, or has he solidified the inside track to a playoff rotation spot? And if so, can he stay at the level he’s displayed over the past month?
Moses Moody, Wing
December Stats: 14 games (2 starts), 10.8/2.8/2/0.7/0 per 75 poss, 58/46/75 splits, .583 3PR, .067 FTR, 3.75 ATO
Last month, I wrote about Moses Moody’s lack of playing time, which you can catch up on here. Steve Kerr outlined clear concerns for the sophomore wing, and he managed to deliver in December. Let’s look at what Moses built on in his limited playing time.
Taking Care of the Rock
Kerr outlined two main issues for Moody when previously asked about playing time concerns: turnovers and defending without fouling. He certainly delivered on the offensive end of that equation. In a November riddled with DNPs, Moody turned the ball over 10 times in 11 contests. That number was cut to 4 giveaways in 15 December games.
It didn’t come at the expense of his playmaking. His assists rose from 8 in November to 15 in December, turning his ATO from 0.8 to 3.75. It’s rarely spectacular, but he is finding spots to drive and find teammates, especially to the corners. He’s limiting his exposure to long ballhandling sequences with quick passes like these:
He can still be prone to the mistakes Kerr called out, like forced entry passes that aren’t lobbed or bounced. The ones like you see below are a major sticking point with the coaching staff.
If he cleans these up and continues to keep the ball flowing without mistakes, that would show a lot of growth.
Staying Ready
Unsurprisingly, Moody has a knack for coming off the bench cold and performing. He’s always been a hard worker and competitor who wants to contribute any way he can, including a variety of timely shots throughout the past month.
His confidence has permeated through his game despite some rough stretches. Constructive criticism from the coaching staff hasn’t deterred him from picking spots to be aggressive and use his physical tools.
He canned 43% of his 2.5 looks per game from deep in December, showing a player unshaken by early struggles and capable of hot stretches. For offensive purposes, better results from deep and limited turnovers with enough connective playmaking could put him back into consideration for a consistent bench spot.
Showing Defensive Potential
One and a half seasons in, Moody hasn’t shown the impact perimeter defense we saw in college on a regular basis. He’s prone to positioning issues and getting himself in trouble that he’s not capable of recovering from. Bigger wings have given him trouble, and quicker guards can get past him for now. But it’s the footwork to go with his length that could help him be a better overall deterrent:
Golden State has a strong rotation of defensive wings, but the absence of Andrew Wiggins has necessitated further depth on that end. Positive signs that Moody can be part of the unit without breaking are welcome. As usual, his help has been quality, especially when tasked with paint responsibilities where footwork and length play a major role:
Keep An Eye Out For…
The goal for last month was just to get more minutes. Now that he has that, can he build on some positive momentum?
If he continues to take care of the ball, plays more solid defense, and the shot continues to fall, it’s hard to justify keeping him out of bench minutes. Even if two of those three things are happening, he should have a more consistent role. It speaks to Golden State’s depth that he’s playing better and still on the outside looking in.
Moody will have to do a lot to put himself in consideration for the playoff rotation over the coming months, but let’s hope January is another step in that direction.
Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward
December Stats: 7 games (0 starts), 20.8/4.4/1.1/0.5/0 per 75 poss, 33/52/50 splits, .778 3PR, .09 FTR, 18.6 DREB%, 1.0 ATO
Possibly the most unexpected development over the last month is Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s emergence.
After getting himself into 4 games over the first two months of the season, spending the majority of his time in the G-League, Baldwin found himself thrust into 7 contests as Golden State’s injury concerns deepen. And wow, did he look ready.
Shooting the Damn Thing
Baldwin’s 11.25 three-point attempts per 75 possessions ranked first among all Warriors in the month of December, and not by accident. Hitting 52% of those looks is eye-popping, and the way he does it looks very sustainable.
He’s great at keeping his feet active and finding angles, and that release point is damn near unguardable. Baldwin Jr. isn’t going to be a star rim pressure guy anytime soon, but he’s found ways to leverage his shooting success into closeout attacks. Besides, does the volume of free throws or rim looks matter when your 6’10” forward has endless confidence, a lethally quick release for his size, and elite shotmaking potential?
In this Golden State offense, he can be a massive weapon even in limited minutes. The bench has struggled to find consistent offense all year, and it now appears a PBJ three is one of their better options. The way he keeps himself moving will translate to good offense as long as he’s around:
He’s slowly becoming a silent killer, and the team is beginning to recognize that. As Klay said after their wild double overtime win in Atlanta, Patrick Baldwin Jr. is putting the “jelly” in PBJ.
There Might Be a Defender Here?
PBJ wasn’t drafted for his defense, and has shown the value pretty clearly on the offensive side of the ball. But he still has to learn to pick his spots on defense and stay responsible, even if he won’t be tasked with the most important assignments on the whole.
Not a skilled point-of-attack defender or rim protector, PBJ’s defensive tasks will be position and rotation-based. And there are good signs he knows what he is, and where to be:
Playing within yourself is one of my favorite traits for a defender. Knowing you aren’t the first, second, or third best defender on the court is a valuable skill all by itself. Watch Anthony Lamb run around like Draymond, overhelping like a fat uncle on Thanksgiving, and you’ll start to appreciate what Baldwin Jr. does.
He sticks in the lane to use his frame for rebounds, and picks his chances to rotate and make an impact:
Does enough to funnel Dejounte into the help when mismatched, then waits out the entry pass to pick up his teammates who just shouldered his drive. This is the stuff you want to see.
With PBJ’s offensive talents, finding little ways to contribute defensively will go a long way towards solidifying rotation minutes in the future.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Let’s build on this confidence, shall we?
It seems unlikely that he survives the impending rotation crunch, but he could make an outright case to steal JaMychal Green’s minutes at the 4 in the interim. If neither offer all that much defensively, why not play the true stretch 4 who can keep the ball moving?
Continue to let it rip from deep, provide credible rotations and secondary rebounding help for the bigs, and PBJ might just find himself with a nightly role after being written off as a potential contributor in the preseason. Hell, he might just play his way into a permanent fixture on the team.
Ryan Rollins, Guard
2022/23 NBA Stats: 60 total minutes, 12.3/5.9/3.6/0.6/0.6 per 75 poss, 30/33/100 splits, 6/16 ATO
2022/23 G-League Stats: 25.6/5.3/5.2/1.4/0.4 per 36 mins, 55/37/71 splits, .385 3PR, .179 FTR, 24.9 AST%, 1.41 ATO, 29.4% USG
Rollins being the only rookie-scale Warrior to appear in December and not improve their overall outlook says a lot more about Golden State’s other players than it does about Rollins.
He’s still looking pretty overmatched in his NBA minutes, as the 16 turnovers in 60 minutes and -49 net rating would indicate, but he’s looking like quite the player in the G League. Without NBA minutes on the horizon, seeing DNPs in all of Golden State’s last five wins, we still have to look for things in his G-League minutes.
Still a Riverboat Gambler
His defensive stats indicate a solid ability to pilfer the ball, but Rollins’ defense is still a bit frustrating to watch.
He LOVES to jump the gap in passing lanes and go for the pick-six, but often misses the window and pays big defensively. As I mentioned before with PBJ, playing within yourself on defense is a valuable trait, one Rollins does not possess at the moment. The massive wingspan for his size and athletic qualities certainly give him the ability to make these jumps on passes, but few players can consistently make that play without taking on water defensively when they miss.
Digs off the perimeter like you see below are where he needs to make his impact. That reach can close gaps faster than most guards can, and being a great help defender is impossible without tools. He just needs the process to match his gifts.
He’s not prone to lapses and can make some solid play recognitions, but his size deficiencies leave him fighting an uphill battle against wings or bigger guards. Don’t expect Rollins to be the switch-friendliest defender in this system.
There are flashes of a decent POA and better help defender in there, but we’re a ways away from rotation-caliber defense by Steve Kerr’s standards.
The Young Young Bull?
The good news for Rollins is that the offense has already translated up a level. After showing strong prowess on the glamour end of the floor at Toledo, Rollins has proven to be Santa Cruz’s best on-ball playmaker out of the gate.
His near 30% usage mark and sheer scoring volume are welcome signs for a team that has lacked a true backup scoring point guard since… Jarrett Jack? Rollins gets himself downhill frequently, showing some solid finishing with enough of a midrange/floater/runner package to present real counters to the defense.
Guards of his ilk tend to be one speed with few tendencies, but he has a strong sense of when to slow things up and use a change of speeds to create opportunities for himself or for teammates, as you see on this PNR with James Wiseman:
The potential for a quality on-ball game is only complemented by his off-ball shooting chops, which are on the rise. Guards with strictly on-ball value don’t last long in Golden State; you need to move without the ball, and it helps to have a quick and effective release:
Keep An Eye Out For…
Continued G-League dominance.
As the G rolls through their regular season, Rollins’ role has the potential to keep growing. He looks like a Quad-A athlete right now, too good for the minors but not quite ready for the majors. What it’s really about is proving yourself as a rosterable player next season, when Golden State could find themselves looking to replace Donte DiVincenzo, who holds a player option he is likely to exceed in free agency.
If the scoring and playmaking stay at this level, some turnovers are cleaned up, and consistency is found on the defensive end, the front office will be on notice.
Special Guest: Gui Santos, Wing/Forward
2022/23 G-League Stats: 12.5/9.4/3.8/1.0/0.8 per 36 mins, 61/33/58 splits, .521 3PR, .103 FTR, 13.9 REB%, 1.08 ATO, 17.1 USG
It’s time for Gui to make his debut after dropping 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 steals against a good Stockton Kings team to close the year.
Golden State hasn’t had much success with their draft-and-stash prospects in recent years, but Gui showcases his potential every time he steps on the floor. A slasher with playmaking chops and defensive potential written all over, he’s quietly an exciting project waiting in the wings. He’s also shown an ability to work on his flaws.
Chucking Away from Deep
Taking more than half his shots from deep is certainly a surprise considering what he was drafted for, but it makes sense in a developmental context. Gui shot 36% and 33% from deep in his last two seasons with Minas on limited attempts. Golden State probably wants to see if there’a anything there while the games are still lower stakes. This was a similar trend to how Jonathan Kuminga played with the G-League Ignite. He took far more threes than expected, trying to work on a weakness knowing he can slash and cut at will.
Gui isn’t the same caliber of athlete as Kuminga, but he’s shown an ability to contribute in a similar way offensively. The cutting and driving paved the way to his career-high game against Stockton:
If the cutting and slashing continue to translate, and a solid catch-and-shoot jumper forms, that forms the kind of big wing/small-ball 4 they want.
Another Defender Full of Potential
Gui has shown some on-ball flashes on opposing wings, with a solid combo of functional athleticism and size to be a moving wall in front of slower ballhandlers. With how he could be used by the big club, some signs of holding up on switches has to viewed as a huge plus at this stage.
Santos also has signs of a potential “event creator” off the ball. He’s shown to be a strong rebounder for his position, one who flies in off the wings to gather rebounds and hustles at every turn. Gui’s creation of steals and blocks is a pleasant surprise up to this point, which bodes well for a player who profiles in a help role often.
Considering the development Golden State has seen to date, the signs of being a Diet Kuminga in his first taste of upper tier pro basketball is a great start. Let’s hope he can continue his strong play in the G, and we’ll check in with him later on.
Looking Forward
With Steph and Wiggins out for the coming week plus of games, plus some incoming back-to-backs (including a 3 games in 4 nights stretch against Boston, Cleveland, and Brooklyn), the young players seeking rotation spots will have more opportunities to come. Players like Poole and Kuminga will see chances to solidify their roles as potentially important playoff contributors down the road.
Let’s hope that the beginning of the new year is as productive for these young Dubs as the end of the last. We’ll check in soon.
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