This is the second part of a monthly recap covering all rookie-scale deal Warriors players, looking at the stats, film, and everything in between. To catch up on the first edition, check it out here. Keep an eye out for the December edition.
Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT
It has been a weird month for the young Warriors. Some have gotten their legs with the big club or in the G-League, one has fallen out of the rotation, and one was demoted to Santa Cruz. Yet all of these moves have come while Golden State has turned a corner, winning 7 of their last 11 games.
With that recent success in mind, let’s take a closer look at which players have been contributing and who has faded into the background for now.
Jordan Poole, Guard
2022/23 Stats: 22 games (4 starts), 20/2.5/6/1.1/0.4 per 75 poss, 54/31/84 splits, 24.3 AST%, 1.57 ATO, .263 FTR, .522 3PR, -3.4 BPM
Though the statistical indicators don’t indicate any massive changes, Poole has made strides on both ends of the floor. After a first month of struggling for offensive consistency with poor on/off-ball defense, he’s starting to look more like the player we saw last season.
Finding Offensive Footing
The biggest change to me has been Poole’s willingness to flex between a playmaker and scorer. His three highest assist totals have all come in November, as he has found a way to get teammates involved when his shot isn’t falling. In fact, he shot a combined 8/32 across those three games, a strong indicator of his willingness to take a backseat and create for others instead of forcing his shot.
Not only is he a willing playmaker (career-high assists per 75), but a very good one:
With a team so reliant on his secondary playmaking, with or without Steph Curry on the floor, this past month has been a fantastic development.
What we have yet to see are the electric offensive results, still largely a result of inconsistent night-to-night performances. He shot under 40% from the floor (28% from deep) over the past month, results not at all indicative of his scoring talent or improved process.
Part of this lack of rhythm is likely due to his role. In four starts when Klay Thompson rests, Jordan averages a crisp 28 PPG on 63/36/92 shooting splits. He’s cleared 20 points in each of those contests while taking between 18 and 21 shots. He’s cleared 20 points only twice in 18 bench appearances.
Despite these struggles, I think the past month has been a big turn for his overall confidence. He’s driving with a purpose, to get to the rim or make plays for others. Per nba.com, his percentage of points in the paint has risen from 24% in October to 36% in November. He’s taking his opportunities to get out in transition to attack unsettled defenses:
In the halfcourt, he’s been patient in seeking his chances to attack mismatches and sloppy closeouts instead of forcing his drives against well-matched defenders:
Though the aforementioned 28% mark from deep is concerning, it hasn’t changed his level of confidence. Poole knows what caliber of shooter he is, and isn’t letting tough results get in the way of good process:
If Jordan can keep up this level of playmaking and rim pressure, the consistency will follow along with more made threes. I very much doubt he’ll have the same efficiency results in December if he maintains the play we saw in the past month.
Making Defensive Strides
Effort has been the key to a change in his defensive impact. Though still very much a negative defender, especially off the ball, he’s showing a lot more engagement when pressed into action.
His opponents are scoring less in the paint against him, from 30.6 to 27.5 PPG. He’s also managed to increase his defensive rebounding and block percentages from October to November. In fact, his block rate increased threefold and ended up higher than both Steph Curry and Donte DiVincenzo in that respect.
Not only do the stats show his increased hustle, but the film backs it up:
He’s even providing more credible off-ball help than we have ever seen out of him:
That’s not to say everything has been on the up and up. The rough closeouts and off-ball lapses are constants and have to be cleaned up to further tighten up a point-of-attack group that has disappointed to date.
Considering my tag for last month’s check-in was “show us something on defense”, I’d say he accomplished just that.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Again, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro for an established player like Poole. A reshuffling of the bench for added spacing has worked well for him, and the defensive improvements are certainly there. For the next month, let’s see if he can string together a few strong offensive games in a row while continuing his on-ball defensive development. Some further signs of off-ball awareness would be welcome as well.
James Wiseman, Big
2022/23 NBA Stats: 11 games (0 starts), 17.9/10/2.6/0.2/1.0 per 75 poss, 59/0/65 splits, .451 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 2.5 BLK%, 1.38 ATO, -2.7 BPM
2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games (5 starts), 20.8/13.3/0.8/0.6/1.7 per 36 mins, 63/29/46 splits, .200 FTR, 19.4 TRB%, 4.0 BLK%, 0.27 ATO, -8 Net Rating
After 11 games, a disastrous bench performance, and a 4-7 team record, the Warriors finally made the decision to demote James Wiseman to the Santa Cruz Warriors. And by all accounts, it’s been a good move for both the player and the team.
Though some prominent Golden State media have aggressively attributed the team’s turnaround in record to Wiseman’s demotion, there is certainly some truth to that. The trickle-down effect of his removal from the roster has been very apparent. More minutes for JaMychal Green and Jonathan Kuminga at the 5 and 4 spots, respectively, has improved both the defensive quality of the bench unit and the overall spacing afforded to their perimeter creators and cutters.
But beyond the impact on team success, what has changed for James Wiseman since his demotion?
A Low-Stakes Offensive Playground
As previously mentioned in the first timeline check-in, Wiseman’s offensive role with the big club was highly compartmentalized relative to his skill set. He was strictly used as a roller and cutter, with limited use as a floor spacer, post-up threat, or handoff hub. Now that he’s away from the pressure and expectations, he’s being allowed to play more like the rookie season version of himself.
For starters, he demands more offensive usage with the Sea Dubs. His usage rate has risen from 20% with GSW to 23% with SCW, in line with the 23.8% usage rate he posted during his rookie season. The increased offensive freedom has also been apparent on the stat sheet, as he’s taken 7 threes in 5 Sea Dubs games. He took none in 11 games with the City Dubs. Wiseman has also gotten up 2.7 more shots per 36 minutes, a positive sign of increased aggression.
This has resulted in some flashes of confidence we haven’t been able to see in some time.
From a developmental standpoint, letting him take jumpers can only be viewed as a good thing. He should be trying all kinds of shots to see what works for him, even if it’s just simple pick-and-pops.
What concerns me the most is the difference in Santa Cruz’s quality of offensive play when he’s on the floor compared to Trevion Williams, the other Sea Dub center. Trevion is a quality mover and sublime passer, one who can operate on the perimeter with his ability to take mismatches off the dribble. The ability to go 4-out or 5-out consistently improves the flow of the whole offense. Wiseman largely sticks himself in the paint looking for post-up chances, which clogs their movement as a help defender is constantly sitting in the lane.
For now, let’s hope Wiseman keeps up the aggression and can further smooth out his skills while adding a bit more perimeter potential. Reps, reps, and more reps are the key.
Still Struggling Defensively
Unfortunately, moving down a level in competition hasn’t improved Wiseman’s defensive impact.
Not only is he continuing to struggle in space, but he’s been very jumpy around the rim. He has a tendency to hunt for blocks instead of contesting shots and letting his length do the work, and it often results in biting on pump fakes:
Wiseman is allowing a 65% conversion rate on twos, not the kind of figure you want to see from such a physically imposing presence. Staying glued to the ground instead of springing to meet shots at the apex would do wonders for that number. He can afford to sacrifice a few blocked shots to get a higher rate of shot contests.
But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the flashes. This defensive possession on Kyle Lowry early in the month showed what he can be when engaged and working hard, even on the perimeter:
Signs of increased communication are there as well. As the backline defender, being able to call out coverages and actions would be a huge asset to the team that won’t show up in the box score.
There haven’t been many drastic changes on this end, but hopefully, over the next month, we can see some further development.
Keep An Eye On…
Last month, I said I wanted to see improvements in catching the ball and playing a more flexible form of drop coverage. Neither of those boxes has been checked, and only more questions are being asked.
I’d still like to see developments in both of those areas as Wiseman gets acclimated to the Santa Cruz environment over the coming months. In addition, continuing his offensive aggression is important. He needs to take advantage of his time in the G by trying as many things as he can, seeing what works, and hopefully applying those reps to his future call-up. It also wouldn’t hurt to knock down that 65% opponent FG% in the paint.
Jonathan Kuminga, Forward
2022/23 Stats: 18 games (2 starts), 13.1/6.6/1.9/0.8/1.3 per 75 poss, 54/25/75 splits, .391 3PR, .261 FTR, 10.4 TRB%, 3.2 BLK%, 0.63 ATO, -5.9 BPM
Last month, I compared Kuminga to the Cousin Greg of this Warriors’ prospect group: on the outside looking in, yearning for an opportunity. Now he’s gone full Tom Wambsgans, unexpectedly jumping to the forefront when you least expect it. It has truly been a banner month for Joku’s development.
In games where the team wasn’t resting their starters, Kuminga only managed to clear 10 minutes played in four of thirteen games before rotational changes arrived. Yet over the past four, he’s cleared that threshold every game, showing the increased confidence Steve Kerr has placed in him. So what has Kuminga done to earn his newfound spot?
Carving an Offensive Niche
Cutting, cutting, and more cutting. This is the primary reason for Kuminga’s newfound offensive success.
Though he’s only credited with 1.1 PPP on cuts (per Synergy), the process has been fantastic to watch. Largely stationed in the corners during halfcourt sets, he takes his chances well to cut off drives or short rolls to capitalize on a distracted defense. This has been a boon for his overall rim finishing numbers, sitting at 71% at the moment.
He’s also showing some increased confidence in his jumper. 4/12 on corner threes isn’t setting the world on fire, but there are some signs that he could show enough to force closeouts. That’s where his real value comes into play.
Kuminga has a unique ability to never truly be properly matched up when driving. He’s too big for guards to handle, too quick for bigs, and too strong for the average wing. We’ve seen that theoretical ability materialize itself in a big way over the past month:
Not only is he driving, but doing so with purpose. He’s creating scoring chances for himself or kicking to put the defense in rotation, cutting down on his habit of driving without a quick decision in mind. Considering the Warriors only have two true defense collapsers (definitely a word, don’t Google it) on the roster, adding a third threat to the mix could add a new element of danger to what is already a very good offense.
This isn’t to say everything has been perfect. He still turns the ball over at a high rate, struggling with his handle and on the catch. But he’s shown all the necessary signs this coaching staff has wanted to see, resulting in his newfound trust. He’ll be allowed to play through his mistakes to show the exponential growth we saw last year when he gets consistent playing time. Who knows how productive he might be on that end by the time January rolls around?
Playing With Defensive Purpose
What has really jumped off the page is Kuminga’s commitment to being an impact rotation defender. Over his last five, Kuminga has racked up 1.4 blocks per game in only 22 minutes per. Not only are the statistical results showing, but the tape shows a different level of activity and timing than we’re used to:
Since Wiseman’s demotion, Kuminga has spent more time at his natural power forward position. It’s been a boon for him offensively, but places more defensive responsibility on his shoulders when thrown into a help role. He’s rising to meet that challenge in a big way.
This increased time at the 4 hasn’t diminished his impact as a wing/point-of-attack defender. In his last game against Dallas, Kuminga was the only Warriors defender who could really bother Luka Dončić. That’s really saying a lot considering Andrew Wiggins‘ All-Defense-caliber presence. His physicality and mobility have always been present, but he’s starting to catch up from a technical perspective:
This kind of versatile defensive impact both on and off the ball is a huge addition to a team starving for defensive playmakers. If he can sustain this level of play on that end, it would change a lot of things for this Golden State team in the short term, let alone what it means for Kuminga’s future potential.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Well, time to toot my own horn a little bit. Here’s what I listed as potential points of growth for Kuminga in the month of November:
Cutting? Check. Impact rotations? Check. Did that lead to a consistent role? You bet.
Now the challenge is on Kuminga to build upon his success. I’d love to see him take some steps as an on-ball scorer, both from the perimeter and on his drives. On the defensive end, we’ve seen Kuminga be an impact rebounder over the past couple of games. If he can continue to work hard boxing out and using his silly second jumps to clean up defensive possessions, he can assist a squad currently ranked 22nd in total rebounding. I’ll be watching very closely to see what he does in December.
Let’s hope my predictive powers for Kuminga can keep up as well.
Moses Moody, Wing
2022/23 Stats: 18 games (1 start), 11.7/4.4/1.4/0.9/0.7 per 75 poss, 52/33/82 splits, .648 3PR, .310 FTR, 3.9 stock %, 0.53 ATO, -4.6 BPM
Speaking of predictive powers, I certainly did not hit the mark when it came to Moody over the past month.
While Kuminga has seen his quality in play and overall playing time increase, Moody has moved in the opposite direction. Over Golden State’s first 10 games, Moody failed to clear 10 minutes played only once. Since then, he’s only cleared that threshold twice: once in a blowout against the Spurs (with Klay Thompson resting), and again when the starting unit rested against the Pelicans. He’s also racked up four DNPs in that same timeframe, clearly falling out of coach Kerr’s favor.
With the lack of a recent sample size, I don’t have much to add to Moody’s developmental process beyond my recent piece written on his specific struggles, which you can read here.
With the problems clearly delineated and the new rotation working, the impetus will be on Moody to show positive flashes whenever he can get himself off the pine. Even in blowout scenarios with limited minutes, Moses has to show growth. Luckily, there have been signs recently:
Hopefully, over the next month, we’ll get some further chances to see Moody get significant playing time. With four back-to-backs on the docket for the next month, including two on the road, he will certainly have some opportunities. That should give us more data to work off, but for now, we stay in wait-and-see mode.
Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward
2022/23 NBA Stats: 4 games played (0 starts), 24 total minutes played
2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games played, 12.6/8.2/2.4/1.4/0.3 per 75 poss, 63/29/100 splits, .659 3PR, .021 FTR, 0.69 ATO
Now we move into the purely developmental group. Though PBJ has been able to grab more garbage time minutes with the big club, the real work is going on down in Santa Cruz.
Letting It Fly
Baldwin Jr. is letting 7.2 threes loose per 75 possessions, and though the 29% mark is less than ideal, he’s too strong of a shooter to not increase that number. Shooting has been his calling card since his days as a top-ranked high school recruit, and it’s great to see his confidence hasn’t waned over a difficult past year. His crazy high release and solid movement skills project as a great off-ball fit in their offensive system, which translates with the big club as well:
As long as he’s with the Sea Dubs, or when he gets his garbage time minutes, he should be letting that thing sing. As he gets his legs under him after a mostly lost one-and-done college season, getting up as many shots as possible.
Getting the rest of his offense to flow from that shooting gravity is important to round out his game. Finishing 63% of his twos to begin the year with Santa Cruz is a great start, and he has showed some signs of a potentially good closeout attacker:
Though nobody would confuse him for a primary playmaker, there have been some positive signs. Our man on the ground in Santa Cruz, @GSWReddit, points out that PBJ has managed to play within the flow of the offense. He keeps the wheels greased, but still finds opportunities to make plays for others in a connective role. There have even been some solid pick-and-roll reps:
Baldwin Jr. is building the profile of a quality connective, off-ball wing in a motion offense. As his health and confidence continue to build, expect results to match his process in the coming months as the reps start to pile up.
Is There Defense Here?
As a player likely profiled in a helping role, hidden off the ball, PBJ’s job is to secure the glass and get active with his rotations. As evidenced by his 7.2 rebounds per 75, he’s able to use that 6’10” frame to his advantage and be a quality glass cleaner. He doesn’t quite have the physicality to be an impact boxout man, but long reach can make up for that in many instances.
A little more stock (steal + block) production would be nice to see, but as his mobility increases with time I expect those to follow. He still struggles in space on switches against shiftier wings or guards. But he wasn’t a player taken for his defense, so he just has to focus on staying within himself, working on positioning, and continuing to pitch in on the glass.
Keep An Eye Out For…
It’s pretty clear that barring catastrophic injury issues, the majority of Baldwin Jr.’s playing time will be coming with the Sea Dubs this season. Given the construction of the current big club, it’s not an indictment of Baldwin Jr. that he’s not playing with them. If anything, it points to their confidence in Santa Cruz coach Seth Cooper and his coaching staff (including Steve Kerr’s son, whose name I am hesitant to type) putting him in a position to step into a role when called upon.
I’d love to see more defensive flashes on his part, using those arms to disrupt passing lanes and affecting shots. He should continue to let it fly offensively, and the shots will begin to fall. Ideally, some increased playmaking responsibility starts to come his way, and he finds a way to get to the line more than the one free throw he generated in his first five G-League games.
Ryan Rollins, Guard
2022/23 NBA Stats: 7 games played (0 starts), 43 total minutes played
2022/23 G-League Stats: 6 games played, 24.8/3.5/3.5/0.7/0.5 per 75 poss, 55/31/59 splits, 18.8 AST%, 0.73 ATO, .385 3PR, .187 FTR, -10.7 Net Rating
Another developmental future Warrior, Rollins has been a ball of pure energy when playing with the Sea Dubs. He might be a contender within the organization to challenge Jordan Poole for the “eating ridiculous shit while going at full speed” crown. His offensive aggression and overall energy would be welcome additions to the big club roster if he’s able to clean up some facets of his game, but for now, he’s biding his time.
A Constant Downhill Threat
Through his first six games, 43% of Rollins’ offense off of field goals has come in the paint. He’s a constant force attacking the rim, largely looking for his own shot but capable of making plays for others as well:
He’s been the dominant scorer on this Sea Dubs team when on the floor, not afraid to get into the teeth of the defense and use physicality and a solid finishing package to generate offense. His willingness to take a hit to generate offense shows a player without fear:
He’s shown some pretty solid handle and craft to boot, and though it can be a bit chaotic (4.9 turnovers per 75), it’s perfectly fine considering where he is in his developmental cycle. The more he works on his playmaking reps, the further he can clean up those turnover numbers while the assists continue to rise. Rollins has also shown a willingness to push the pace in transition, using his burst and fast-paced handling to take advantage of unsettled defenses:
Though his role as a primary scorer with Santa Cruz has diminished his chances to show connective passing, he’s made some reads with the big club that stood out to me:
This is the kind of cut with the intent to kick out you would normally see from Draymond Green or Kevon Looney, but in this case, it’s Rollins making the read. Though he bobbles on the catch, you can see the intent from the young rookie.
Defense: Some Assembly Required
As much as the offensive flashes have been incredibly encouraging from RR, the defense has not been inspiring. But why take it from me when you can take it from the Michelangelo of Warriors film work, Joe Viray?
Much like Patrick Baldwin Jr., Rollins wasn’t drafted for his defensive prowess, but this rate of dying on screens and allowing dribble penetration is unsustainable. No amount of offensive production will get the Warriors’ coaching staff to overlook this.
If he’s able to clean some of this up to become at least a competent defender, it bodes very well for his future with the big club. His ridiculous +7 wingspan and athleticism point to potential defensive impact down the road and he could very well be an impact defender with repetition and hard work. Until then, he’s destined to ride the pine.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Any signs of defensive life.
With the offensive trajectory Rollins is on and his priors with Toledo, we know he can score the ball. Sure, it would be great to see more perimeter shots fall and fewer turnovers, but he can certainly make an impact on that end. The real question is, can that outweigh his subpar defensive game?
Over the next month when I check in on the Sea Dubs, I’ll be watching his perimeter defense like a hawk. General awareness, effort, or some quality lock-and-trails would be fantastic to see. Hopefully, if he can clean up the technical aspects, his physical tools will lead to a positive overall impact down the line.
Looking Forward
As previously mentioned, the Warriors have four upcoming back-to-backs this month. This is a great opportunity to see some of the end-of-the-rotation pieces in action. Fingers crossed that the development from Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga stays on an upward trajectory because this could be an even more ringing endorsement of the young core a month from now. Until then, keep your eyes peeled.
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