Warriors 2026 Draft Guide
No way around it; this Warriors season sucked.
A lackluster season starting with Jimmy Butler tearing his ACL sealed this as a failed year. But, there were glimpses of hope; the Steph Curry-Draymond Green tandem was enough to beat the Clippers in the play-in, showing they can still get it done. Late-season surges by Brandin Podziemski and Gui Santos gave some hope for the young core. Now the Warriors will add the 11th pick to this team, giving GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. a chance to inject youth into a rapidly aging roster.
I’ll take a 30,000 foot view of the prospects in Golden State’s range, and explain why I’d take that player or pass on them. For this exercise, I’m omitting players I am 100% convinced will be gone by 11, such as Brayden Burries, Mikel Brown Jr., and Kingston Flemings.
Going through prospects being mocked to Golden State’s range, I played “Draft or Pass” with each potential Warriors pick:
Draft: Morez Johnson Jr. (Forward/Big, Michigan)
It’s been some time since I’ve been able to run enough tape for a full draft board. But I do my best to keep tabs on things and watch games when I can. The top four is clear between Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Caleb Wilson. After that, the top players are up for debate. I’m certain that the fifth-best player in this class, Morez Johnson Jr., is going to be available at 11. If the Warriors don’t jump on the chance to draft Morez, I am going to be quite upset.
A lot of Morez being under-hyped comes down to anchoring bias and context. Johnson was a four-star recruit who didn’t crack the top 25 on the major platforms, and was a medium-usage bench piece as a freshman at Illinois. Transferring to Michigan put him in a bigger role, starting all 40 games, but he fell under the shadow of Yaxel Lendeborg. Consensus seems to be that Yaxel is the better draft prospect, an assumption I strongly disagree with.
A powerfully built forward-center type, Johnson put on a show at the draft combine. He is 6’9″ with a +6.5 inch wingspan and a standing reach just shy of 9′. Weighing in at 250 pounds, Morez has an NBA-ready body, but doesn’t sacrifice athleticism; he posted a strong max vertical of 39 inches, and ran the lane agility drill faster than all but one forward. Johnson’s hands are 10-inches wide, longer than Kawhi Leonard’s. On athletic profile alone, Morez is lottery-worthy.
It’s the production that seems to get lost in the shuffle. A prolific defender first and foremost, Morez flashed a lot as an above-the-rim finisher who is learning to expand his range. Johnson managed to draw lots of fouls while cashing 78% of his freebies. Making 36% of his midrange looks and 34% of his threes gives some hope that he can be a threat outside of the paint. We’ll get to the defensive impact in a bit, but here’s a basic glimpse at underclassmen who have matched Morez’s level of defensive production and scoring touch:
Pretty good company, if you ask me. Match this production with elite athleticism, and you’ve got a top prospect.
His uncanny timing as a rotational defender makes him a slam dunk for the Warriors. Yes, they need athletes who can grab boards and finish lobs, but if you can’t make consistent rotations, you will fail in Kerr’s defensive system. (i.e. Kuminga, Jonathan) Morez makes excellent reads as a defender and has a knack for high-pointing the ball for blocks, but doesn’t need to make the big play to have impact in a rotation.
Morez checks the athleticism box, the production box, and fits the current needs of the team along with the system. Mike Dunleavy Jr., make it happen.
Pass: Nate Ament (Wing/Forward, Tennessee)
This one terrifies me. Ament, a consensus five-star recruit and the No. 4 prospect in the nation (who flirted with 1.1), had a disappointing year in Knoxville. The highest recruit in Tennessee history, Ament was billed as a tall shooter who can put the ball on the deck to create his own shots and finish around the rim. Unfortunately, he didn’t quite hit the efficiencies evaluators wanted to see.
At 6’10” with solid all-around athleticism, Ament can get perimeter shots whenever he wants. The problem is that he failed to convert them, making 33% of his looks with the Vols. The volume wasn’t inspiring either at 7.9 threes per 100 possessions.
Mostly, he took midrange jumpers, which represented 61% of his two-points attempts; those went in at a 37% clip. Not exactly green-light territory in the NBA. Most concerning is the rim finishing: on non-dunk rim attempts, Ament shot 46.5%, a ghastly rate for a near seven-footer. He didn’t wow with dunks either, punching the ball home just 13 times.
Ament did draw plenty of free throws and convert them at a strong clip, boosting his efficiency overall; but, I don’t see it translating to the next level.
He’s too slight of frame at 210 pounds, doesn’t have short-area movement skills that impress, and is more reticent towards contact than you’d like. Referees don’t reward gangling guys who fall down going backwards; some forward momentum has to be involved.
Add in a meh assist/turnover ratio and a lack of defensive impact and you’ve got a player more theoretical than practical. A former top prospect who had no bankable skills as a play-finishing forward has no floor. I’ll leave you with this: here’s a list of all first-round picks with a rim finishing percentage under 55% and a three-point percentage under 35%:
Almost every successful NBA player on this list is a defense-first wing or a guard. Ament doesn’t fit any of these profiles. Hard pass on Patrick Baldwin III.
Draft: Ebuka Okorie (Guard, Stanford)
Talk about a late riser. Through the majority of the NCAA season, Ebuka Okorie projected as a late first to early second round prospect. Now that athletic testing and measurements are in, Okorie is flying up the board, possibly as high as No. 9 to the Mavericks. But if Morez Johnson is off the board and Okorie is sitting there, Mike Dunleavy Jr. should ensure that Okorie stays on the Peninsula.
Size is a big hurdle to overcome here. Just shy of 6’3″, Okorie is below the usual threshold you’d want to see for a lottery guard. In this class full of productive short guards, it’s not a huge knock, but it historically does not pan out. So why do I believe Okorie can hack it?
First things first, the arms impressed scouts at the NBA Combine. Okorie measured in with a 6’8″ wingspan, putting his physical dimensions squarely in the De’Anthony Melton zone. With huge 9″ hands, he effectively has oars for arms, a huge asset for him on both ends of the floor.. As Andre Iguodala once said, “these motherfuckers are crazy”.
Offensively, Okorie was a rim pressure monster. He took nearly eight shots per game at the rim, hitting a respectable 56% of them, along with eight dunks, an important benchmark for his size. Generating over 40% of your shots at the rim out in half-court sets is absurd, and if he pairs the finishing with a healthy diet of lay-offs to bigs/cutters and kickouts to shooters, he has legitimate primary scorer upside.
To reach that level of upside, Okorie needs counters, and he certainly has those. The pull-up three-point shooting was strong, and he’s comfortable making teams pay for going under on ball screens. The Stanford PG converted 42% of his midrange attempts, showing good floater touch and pull-up ability to counter drops. He needs to work on beating early help and outright doubles, but if he’s pressuring the defense enough to create those, it’s a tick in his favor.
Okorie has mastered ball handles, shows incredibly fast quick first step burst, has historic rates in turnover suppression and shots at the rim with indicators to potentially be a great 3pt shooter, and has one of the highest impact indicators via BPM of any prospect. When you consider his scalability show to help initiate the offense at the high school level to become lead option walking bucket who led an ACC with Cameron Boozer in it, you can envision where Okorie can complement Steph Curry on the court together and to stagger going forward.
Defensively, Okorie has the potential to be a monster at the point of attack. He used his long arms to his advantage, creating havoc on the perimeter. I was impressed with his motor given the usage he shouldered offensively for Stanford. Playing next to Steph Curry, he’ll surely have more energy to use on the defensive end of the floor. I do have some questions about his schematic fit in a funnel-based system, but I believe he has the court feel to understand how to angle his defensive assignments and play in rotation.
Okorie isn’t without question marks. A dual small-guard backcourt isn’t ideal in the NBA, but the post-Steph era has to be considered, and he has the upside to take the reins in future seasons. It’s a narrow path to navigate, making a pick for the short and long term, but the easiest answer is to draft a great talent and go from there. Okorie is that talent.
Pass: Bennett Stirtz (Guard, Iowa)
Look, it’s no knock on Stirtz that I’m passing here. He was extremely productive at Drake before transferring to Iowa, where he remained a high-level offensive engine. Stirtz shoots well on and off the ball, is productive on drives, and keeps the ball moving in ways that benefit his teammates.
Here’s the problem: I see no way that he is a productive starter as long as Steph Curry is around. With Wardell as the face of the franchise, that team is his offense, and he is the ball-dominant guard. Stirtz needs to fit some sort of billing as an off-ball guard to make things work in the interim.
Stirtz is the same size as Okorie, but his wingspan is shorter. For an off-ball guard, he’s too short, not heavy enough, and doesn’t test out as an elite athlete. His defensive numbers are fine, but he’s overly reliant on gambling for steals and not good enough at moving his feet or leveraging his strength, so he doesn’t project to be a plus at the point of attack. That may matter less in Kerr’s defensive system, but it still matters.
The shooting box is certainly ticked. Stirtz has shot at high volume and with impressive efficiency throughout his career, as a player who moves well off the ball in rare instances when he isn’t dribbling. Theoretically, the catch-and-drive game would play well, and he could flow in and out of split cuts while stampeding closeouts. But the lack of size is another knock on him in the Golden State system; 6’2″ and 186 pounds doesn’t play well screening off the ball.
For many other teams, Stirtz is a great value in this range. But Golden State is already too small, not athletic enough, and has its lead guard taken care of with Steph. The Warriors need just about everything, but they don’t need a high-volume scorer of a small guard who looks to be a negative defensively.
Draft: Yaxel Lendeborg (Forward/Big, Michigan)
Sometimes, the mocks get it right. Yaxel Lendeborg has been mocked to the Warriors at 11 quite often, and for good reason.
Plain and simple, the Warriors need guys who can play from Day 1. They also need positional size, rebounding production, overall athleticism, and legitimate play finishers to capitalize off Steph Curry’s gravity. Yaxel Lendeborg checks all of those boxes.
Offensively, I’m quite high on Yaxel. He is an excellent rim finisher, putting home 67% of his non-dunk rim attempts, and can get above the rim with ease. The ability to put the ball on the deck has grown over the years. Yaxel has knocked down long twos and threes on volume and with efficiency for his career. I’m also impressed with the playmaking, as he’s cut his turnover rate for three straight years in D1. It’s unreasonable to think of him as a future top option, but he has a malleable offensive profile that will translate to Steph-centric ball.
It’s the defense that pushes the upside case for me. Lendeborg has a knack for high-pointing the ball, but doesn’t chase blocks, using his 240-pound frame and length to affect shots. The rebounding was maligned at Michigan, but he dominated the glass at UAB and was understandably deferential on the glass to his 7’3″ frontcourt mate, Aday Mara. I see no reason why he can’t be a plus rebounder at the next level. He’s experienced and rotates well, and will be a great understudy for Draymond Green as a big versatile defender and handoff connective playmaker with two-way feel for the game.
Production isn’t the only benchmark that Lendeborg clears with ease. At 6’9″ with a 7’3″ wingspan, Lendeborg is a nimble fridge; he’s ready-made to play NBA power forward and could move up to the five in the right lineups. While the vertical didn’t wow evaluators, his agility score was 92nd percentile amongst forwards, a skill that weighs heavily when you have his build.
I understand why Lendeborg’s age is a concern, as he’ll be nearly 24 on draft night. But the counter to that is you’re getting years 24-28 on his first deal, and years 29-32 on his first extension if things break well. That’s a very important part of the calculus for a team that is light on productive players and good contracts. While I do prefer his teammate, Morez Johnson Jr., Yaxel checks all the boxes for this pick.
Pass: Aday Mara (Big, Michigan)
Mara is the only of the three Michigan bigs I wouldn’t draft to Golden State. It’s not about production; he was an absurd shot-blocker, great rebounder, sound rim finisher, and has surprisingly impressive passing chops for a 7’3″ big. It’s not athleticism, either; despite his mammoth size, he tested quite well in agility scores, and you can see his wiggle on film.
Here’s the problem: his size, and not in the way that you think. There are 12 former first-round picks who were 7’3″ or higher, and they averaged 420 games played for their career. Rik Smits, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Shawn Bradley are the only ones who cleared 800 career games. The two current players who meet that criteria—Victor Wembanyama and Zach Edey—aren’t exactly bastions of health. Wemby being available for 73.6% of his regular-season games isn’t that bad, but Edey has played only 46.9%. When you’re that tall and that built, gravity works awfully hard on you.
Mara isn’t without injuries in his career. He suffered an ankle injury in the midst of his NCAA tournament run at UCLA, has struggles with respiratory problems, and has struggled with conditioning. Even if he had a clean bill of health, I do not trust players that size to play starter’s minutes over an 82-game season, let alone the playoffs. If another team takes the risk and reaps the rewards, good for them.
2nd Round Draft: Tamin Lipsey (Guard, Iowa State)
If there’s one thing Mike Dunleavy Jr. has done exceptionally well in his tenure, it’s finding productive role players in the second round and beyond. Quinten Post and Will Richard have given them strong minutes as young role players, and Pat Spencer was excellent down the stretch this past season. Tamin Lipsey is an obvious role player bet there for the taking with the 54th pick.
An All-Defense player in the Big 12 for three seasons, Lipsey averaged 2+ steals per game for all four years at Iowa State. He’s exceptionally quick on his feet, a demon getting around screens, and has very fast hands. Lipsey is a ready-made point-of-attack defender who can fill a slap the floor and get after it role from Day 1.
Offensively, the upside is higher than you think. He’s a decent three-point shooter, finishes well around the rim, and has taken real strides in the midrange to become an impressive long-two creator. Iowa State plays a pro-style offense that has prepared him well for the next level. Perhaps most importantly for Golden State, he’s a plus passer with an assist/turnover ratio over 3.0 as a senior. He can make his teammates better without back-breaking mistakes.
Is Lipsey a huge upside bet? No. But players in his mold, like Jamal Shead and Davion Mitchell, have found ways to be contributors on playoff teams in recent years. Another ball-handler to organize the bench, who will improve their defensive infrastructure, is a huge win late in the second round.
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