Swish Roundtable: Favorite Draft Sleepers

Cover image by Emiliano Naiaretti.

Swish Theory’s strongest asset is its people. All from different locations, professions, academic backgrounds and rooting for teams across the league, but all thinking critically about the sport they love.

This breadth of diversity makes write-ups like these so functional. So many diverse perspectives in a room limits blind spots, and it also allows us to build our own sort of consensus.

That’s exactly why we turned to thirteen of our best draft experts to answer a simple question: of the players not invited to the NBA Combine, who will have the best NBA career?

Unsurprisingly, the group came up with a wide range of answers. There are a few repeats (Tamin Lipsey was selected three times), but even where there’s overlap, the writers’ reasoning and approach clearly differs. Each of the thirteen responses reflects the writer’s unique evaluatory paradigm.

Enjoy!

Matt Powers – Tucker DeVries, Indiana

An immediate value-source for players is when they have access to what I like to call a nexus point. A nexus point is when a player is in a situation where their abilities unlock a multi-decision point where they can take advantage in multiple ways. When a player gets in that position, the opponent’s defense has to be perfect or else this offensive player is able to get an immediate advantage. Think of AJ Dybantsa getting into his midrange where he can 1.) finish a middie at a good percentage, 2.) use nifty footwork to get to the rim, or 3.) kick out to punish help. This makes it very difficult to have a perfect defensive possession against AJ. Another example would be Tyrese Haliburton in transition, where his ultra-quick processing allows him to find multiple teammates or hit a pull-up three.

Tucker DeVries has access to a nexus point as convenient as anyone in this class. For DeVries, it comes off the catch on the wing. His options are as follows: 1.) take the catch and shoot three if open (46% from three on open looks the last two seasons), 2.) skip the ball if coverage over-loads, or 3.) pull-up if his man blows by or plays tight. That is also the order of effectiveness, as DeVries is a great spot up shooter, good passer and okay pull-up shooter. But it is rare to find this kind of offensive optionality late in the draft.

I’m particularly moved by DeVries’ sense of passing angles in the tape. His assist rate wasn’t sky high, as he didn’t run a lot of pick and roll, but had an elite assist-to-turnover ratio (2.2), validating his quality of decision-making. He is particularly adept skip passing, which forces the defense to stay committed to the opposite-side perimeter, therefore opening up alleys to the basket. His 86% free throw shooting confirms his caliber of shooter, which should translate into good three point gravity in combination with his quick trigger from deep (68 3PAR).

The easy issue to point out is poor athleticism, but DeVries is still 6’6.25’’ and 222 pounds, able to hide on whichever SF/PF is slower, and is high feel enough to keep a defensive shell. We’ve seen other spot up shooters like Baylor Scheierman and Sam Hauser hang in defensively, though both are a bit more agile than DeVries. But Tucker is stronger than both, and has equal if not better feel. That size locks in his passing value as well, able to find angles that your average spot up guard cannot.

Tucker DeVries seems like a potential spot starter in an upside case, a reliable spacer who won’t make any glaring errors. Drafting a player in the late second, or signing as an UDFA, who can provide this clearcut of offensive value should be a boon to whoever snags him.

Joseph George- Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State

Maybe I’m copping out a bit by choosing Lipsey, who absolutely should have been invited to the NBA Combine after yet another monstrous defensive season for Iowa State. But then again, a player feeling like a cop-out answer does reflect extremely positively on them.

Lipsey basically hits on all the feel indicators: he’s now put up three college seasons with a steal percentage over 4.0%, and combines his turnover generation with ball security on the other end. Of course, Lipsey fits very neatly into the type of prospect that has gotten little shine in the pre-draft process but ends up surprising doubters. The intersection of high-major guards who are sub-6’4″, have a steal rate north of 3.8%, an AST/TO above 2.8, and logged real rotation minutes is actually surprisingly small. Among those thirteen players are Fred VanVleet, T.J. McConnell, Jamal Shead, Reece Beekman, Tyler Ennis, and Jacob Gilyard. Of course, it’s not guaranteed Lipsey achieves these outcomes, but the pathway is certainly there for real rotation value.

I often try to frame my evaluations in terms of projected six-factor RAPM, because it helps me isolate which traits actually move the needle for teams. The framework decomposes a player’s impact into six channels, three on each end: scoring efficiency, turnovers, and rebounding for offense (oTS, oTOV, oREB) and their defensive mirrors (dTS, dTOV, dREB). Lipsey grades out positively in several of them. His ball pressure and turnover generation should drive strong dTOV value, his ball security shows up in oTOV, and his work on the glass will give him a positive oREB despite his size.

Of course, the bear case for Lipsey isn’t something that doesn’t matter: his scoring efficiency is below average and has not shown a lot of development. But is Lipsey really as bad a scorer as the broader efficiency metrics would suggest? Perhaps not. His unassisted shot diet actually looks somewhat encouraging – 83% of his shots at the rim are self-created, and he’s somewhat comfortable pulling up in the midrange, even at modest efficiency.

I acknowledge his profile is unconventional, but jagged prospects with good, tangible feel are often great value bets, especially when they’ve maintained this type of production over multiple seasons. I think that should warrant Lipsey a second look as we get closer to draft day.

Lukas Spinnler – Nate Bittle, Oregon

Playing four years at Oregon, Bittle has a number of damning flaws for a center that should theoretically disqualify him from NBA conversations. He has a low dunk frequency (9 total dunks on the season), nor does he efficiently score inside the arc or grab offensive rebounds at rates consistent with NBA caliber big men.

Paradoxically, these weaknesses may actually open up a more intriguing, indirect pathway for Bittle as the league’s next great “Wing Center.“

The blueprint for his archetype is Jaylin Williams of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Williams functions as a big on defense via defensive rebounding influence and rim deterrence, while mimicking the three-point rate and assist rate of a wing. In this way, he alleviates the limited two-point and offensive rebounding influence typically associated with center-sized players. Strength in these isolated skills has willed Jay-Will to a top 80 placement in time-decay RAPM, offering compelling evidence that this mold can be an absolute lineup construction cheat code.

The traits needed to replicate this impact are a high level of cognition alongside shooting volume and a baseline of big skills. Bittle appears well on his way. Since 2008, there has been just one drafted player over 6’6 to hit the following thresholds: 5 dunks, 17 DREB%, 1.6 STL%, and 8 3PA/100. That player would be Sixers forward Paul George. If drafted, Bittle would be second player to qualify. To do this while being a true 7 footer is truly outlier.

Nate won‘t have the same DREB influence that Jaylin has provided, but he does projecs as a much better rim protector. He offers strong rim protection metrics (7.5 BLK%, -7% on-off opponent rim frequency, -2.5 on-off opponent rim FG%) alongside elite measurements (7 feet tall, 250 lb, with a +6 wingspan).

A low-ish drive frequency and high scoring assisted rate coupled with his age could potentially deny “wing Bittle.“ This is nonetheless a worthwhile risk to me considering how special his blend of cognition, touch and traditional center defense is.

Avi Chauhan – Duke Miles, Vanderbilt

Miles is one of the longest-tenured players in college basketball, with stops at Troy, High Point, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt across 6 years. He was a freshman at the same time as Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes.

Miles is also one of the lightest players eligible to be selected in the 2026 draft, as he measured in at 170 pounds with just a 6’0.75 shoeless frame at the G League Combine. In fact, Miles was a late invite to the G-League Combine, not amongst the 44 players initially selected.

This may seem puzzling at first glance. Miles was one of the most productive guards in the country against legitimate competition: he racked up a 9.9 BPM and top 40 RAPM against top 100 teams. However, with extreme weaknesses in his frame and age, it’s understandable why Miles has failed to gain as much traction as his basketball production would imply.

Miles also pairs two extreme strengths: his scoring touch and defensive aptitude.

Miles is a legitimate four-level scorer. He’s a strong driver, with career finishing numbers well above that of a smaller guard. Miles is quick, but his interior effectiveness is built on his deceleration and body control within traffic. When caught amongst bodies in the paint, he has the patience to pause and get to scoops or step throughs. His lack of weight does not prevent him from baiting opposing bigs to foul; this year, he had a monstrous 50 free-throw rate.

But while Miles can get to his spots, what’s especially standout (and arguably more important) is his touch. Despite a high degree of difficulty by virtue of their unassistedness, Miles has consistently made runners, scoop shots, or pull-ups inside the arc. Across his college career, he’s shot nearly 45% on non-rim 2s, a rate akin to some of the NBA’s best midrange shotsmen a la Jalen Brunson or Ajay Mitchell. Making tons of rim attempts on top of efficiently converting midrangers gives Miles a gaudy career 2P above 55%. This sort of inside-arc efficiency on a micro-assisted rate is difficult to find comparisons for, especially with Miles’ diminutive frame.

An even better indication of Miles’ superb touch is his elite FT%. There have been just 11 other high major player-seasons of 90% FT on 150 FTAs or more. The vast majority were poor finishers; John Tonje was the only player of this group who matched Miles’ finishing and FT% goodness. But he was well below-average at accumulating steals and assists, while these happen to be Miles’ defining skill singularities (yes, even beyond his scoring touch).

This is the crux of what makes Miles such an interesting bet. Of course, Miles is the standard small guard with elite cognition. With a 5% steal rate and 27% assist rate during his final NCAA season, his pre-college profile stacks up favorably to two smalls that recently played in the Finals: TJ McConnell and Jose Alvarado. But Miles is also a legitimately special scorer, with strengths as a rim finisher, foul drawer, midrange shooter, and free throw maker. The chance he can rely on this scoring touch at his size and age is small, but the small chance that he can sustain high usage should be considered additive. It’s an interesting take on versatility, giving Miles a number of avenues to successful floor outcomes even with a firmly capped ceiling.

How many players since 2008 have shot a career 62% at the rim, 42% on far 2s, 80% at the line, while drawing a 35 free throw rate? It’s a list of 40 players.

How many of these players were guards, with a career assist rate over 23%? Just five: Derrick White, Ajay Mitchell, De’Vante Jones, Jalen Brunson, and Miles. And De’Vante had no dunks across his 108 game college career, while Miles has 8.

Miles is much smaller and older than these players were as prospects, but his combination of touch and cognition is impressive even relative to players of his height that usually excel in these regards. He has both the skill singularity and well-roundedness to stick in the league.

Miles’ biggest hole may not be his age, or his frame. I think it’s actually his ability to make threes. Miles has a stiff upper body and exaggeratedly swings his legs forward on both C&S and OTD 3s. On the shooting load, there are moments where his knees are flexed well ahead of his toes. This type of stiff, swaying shooting motion makes his C&S attempts look overly difficult, and it contributed to a career low 32% C&S 3P conversion rate despite a career high FT% at Vanderbilt. I trust his pristine shooting indicators to help him regress towards a more palatable career 3P% in the NBA, but the shooting downside should be considered.

Still, his mediocre career 3P% is somewhat mild if it’s truly his biggest weakness. This sort of two-pronged skill, as a scorer and basketball thinker, should give him a strong floor when paired with strong general production metrics. Amongst the cohort of players not invited to even the NBA Combine, that’s more than enough for me.

Joe Hulbert – Vsevolod Ishchenko, Lokomotiv Kuban

This is one I’ve gone back and forth on. But the player I have ultimately landed on is Seva Ishchenko. The Russian wing is a player who has been on my radar since February. What is first striking about him is how low he can get with his handle considering how big he is. He measures at 6’8 and there are reports he has a 7 foot wingspan (waiting for confirmation on that). He’s able to get low with the ball and possesses pretty much all of the physical skills to be able to access all options on the flowchart once he reaches the paint.

The term ‘pass drive and shoot’ is often thrown around too much and quite often I find myself disagreeing like I did in my Amari Allen article (linked here). With Ishchenko, the label absolutely fits. He’s shot 46 percent from beyond the arc this season, and generally has shown good shooting indicators throughout his career. He’s steadily improved from 73 percent at the line, to 79 percent over the past 3 years, and has 2 straight seasons shooting 40 percent or more from beyond, with that number being 46 percent this year.

The shot doesn’t look overly convincing mechanically, but it goes in, and he possesses an excellent first step and good east-west moves which is important for a corner shooter if they want to drive baseline. His volume isn’t notably high right now, but it’s worth noting his team ranks in just the 9th percentile of spot-up jumper frequency, with their offensive focus largely being in other areas. He can definitely up the volume; he largely is being used in lower usage areas such as a cutter when in the half-court, with the majority of his diet coming in transition.

The biggest knock (particularly from the sheet side of our staff) will be the turnovers. Quite often with European prospects it’s one play-type that will tank turnovers. In Ischenko’s case he does seem to turn the ball over quite often. From watching every turnover he’s made, the most common problem seems to be being overwhelmed at a crowded paint. I don’t see a major processing issue outside of PNRs, which leads me to think the turnover rate can drop with a more defined role and less of a transition emphasis. The PNR reps were not great, but I wouldn’t have that as a huge focus at the next level.

On that topic, it’s also worth noting how poor of a shooting team he has around him. Of their top 8 players, only former Mount Olive PF Mike Moore can shoot the ball. The rest of the team including guards is a very poor shooting supporting cast which will do a good job explaining why he can struggle driving off the catch late in the shot clock. Poor spacing will lead to poor decisions and his driving abilities are kind of suppressed by Kuban’s end of clock concepts. He also is largely pigeonholed for PNR duties because he’s one of very few players on the roster with any perimeter threat.

Defensively, he’s strong and able to generate stocks, but he’s also positionally sound and quite versatile. I think this gives him a lot of lineup versatility which is something I value a lot in second round picks. This is truthfully the main reason I’m in on him, and why he’s in my top 30. I think he can be a well above average defender. Often guys with that label don’t have much on offense, but I think his driving and shooting are both at a good level. The passing tools might be there for connective ability; that’s a short way off at the moment.

I often find wings to be misvalued. I think the traditional 3-and-D wing is an overrated role and having some kind of offensive viability in ways other than spot-up shooting is important. Think of the baseline drives Jaden McDaniels gives the Timberwolves in playoff settings as an example. I think Ishchenko has enough there alongside the defense that I’m willing to plant my flag on him. I think his worst tendencies are empowered by Kuban’s lack of spacing, and I really think he can be an excellent wing at the NBA level.

Will Morris- Cade Tyson, Minnesota

When looking at deep sleepers, it’s especially important to find special traits rather than fully complete players. Chances are you aren’t going to find an All-Star on the undrafted free agent market. Cade Tyson is far from perfect, and has had one of the stranger college careers that I can remember. I was a big fan of him after a couple of elite shooting seasons at Belmont. Then he transferred to UNC and fell out of the rotation. Then he transferred to Minnesota and was the undisputed best player on a Big Ten team, averaging 19.6 points per game on 50-41-82 splits.

Say what you want about his poor stint at UNC, but Tyson is an elite shooter at 6’7”. There have been 57 6’6”+ players since 2008 to hit over 450 career threes and shoot over 40%. 13 of them were drafted, and some of the notable undrafted guys to hit those marks were Sam Hauser and Duncan Robinson. When we talk about special traits, skills that will actually get you on an NBA floor, Tyson has it with his combination of size and versatile shooting. He has a smooth release coming off of off-ball actions and is confident to take some. I’ve also been consistently impressed with his feel for cutting and finishing. He had 10 dunks this year and shot 76.9% at the rim.

There’s a legitimate chance that Tyson sticks around the league for a bit as a shooting specialist that isn’t THAT un-athletic. He has a legitimate NBA skill, and you always bet on legitimate NBA skills as the draft goes deeper.

Michael Neff – Tamin Lipsey

Lipsey might feel like a boring answer. That’s part of why I feel great about it. Lipsey’s been on draft radars for a while now, making his omission from the NBA Combine that much stranger. He’s a 3x All-Big 12 player and 3x Big 12 All-Defensive player, he has a career 4.4 STL%, and a 2.4 AST:TO ratio. He simply has an iron-clad resume of feel for the game. Defense is the real calling card that gives Lipsey a chance to succeed. We just got done watching yet another NBA playoffs where positive defender guards lined every rotation among the last teams standing. Lipsey’s arguably been college basketball’s best perimeter defender over the last three years. Sure, his size could hinder him, but he’ll make life difficult for opposing ball handlers and generate turnovers.

With guards, everyone bends over backwards to find special offensive players, but the commonality amongst all the guards in the NBA Finals? Defense. Even Jalen Brunson competes and uses his strength well on that end. Lipsey could belong in those conversations someday. Whether or not his offense works out remains to be seen. Personally, I’m optimistic. The playmaking and turnover avoidance stand out, but Lipsey quietly has a good unassisted shotmaking profile too. He shot 62.1% at the rim on 56% unassisted shots, and an eye-opening 43.6% from midrange on 86.4% unassisted shots. Lipsey’s no stranger to physicality in the paint (5.2 OREB% for a 6’0 guard is pretty ridiculous), and he’s got the feel to function in an NBA offense.

I don’t think we’re talking about a star guard here by any means. Lipsey’s outside shot (31.6% this year) and touch (65.6 FT% this year, 71% career) just don’t scream dynamic scorer. However, Lipsey has the mentality, feel, and defense to make an impact for winning teams. I can’t help but watch guys like TJ McConnell and Jose Alvarado make an impact in recent NBA Finals and not have a glimmer of optimism for Lipsey to translate.

Emiliano – Robert McCray V, Florida State

There are some things I’ve learned in the time I spent watching and analyzing G League basketball in recent years. One of them is that guard-sized players who can get to the rim, can stack steals, rack up some blocks while also adding some creation tend to translate to the NBA, even if their scoring profile looks tricky at times.

I’m thinking about players like Quenton Jackson or Jamaree Bouyea, just considering some of the most recent examples. Guys who can score at the G League level but can do much more stuff to make the translation smoother and that allows them to “fit in.”

There’s a guy that impacts the game in a similar way and I could envision in a NBA guard rotation sooner rather than later: Robert McCray V.

McCray was a redshirt senior at Florida State University this past season and he has a somewhat unimpressive physique: standing at 6’2.75 barefoot with a 6’4 wingspan and 193 pound frame, he certainly isn’t the biggest or longest guard around.

However, he possesses some impressive athletic features. With a 43.0 max vert, the best 3/4 Court Sprint and other solid results, he was clearly one of the winners of the G League Elite Camp strength and agility tests.

And his athletic tools look very functional both on tape and in the sheets. He plays with pace, glides through defenses and has some very strong statistical indicators. The mix of 2.1 BLK%, 2.5 STL%, 16 dunks, 33.7 Free Throw Rate, 45% rim frequency, 43.8 AST% and 1.7 AST/TO is a cool, funky ancillary package for a 6’3 guard.

Simply put, that intersection of functional athleticism, creation and decent feel is not that common.

There are some real concerns about his scoring profile considering his unremarkable three point shooting paired with a 55% on close 2s and a certain tendency to settle for mid range jumpers more often than ideal. He maybe lacks a clear NBA skill to build around, but his ability to impact the game in a variety of ways makes him an underrated prospect in the depth of the draft compared to other guards on the margins whose profile is centered around their scoring (and their usage, which can make the translation much more difficult).

Ben Pfeifer – Duke Miles, Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt senior guard Duke Miles will turn 25 midway through his rookie year. He hovers around six feet tall and didn’t become a star until his sixth and final college season. And yet, Miles’ confluence of skills, traits and statistical indicators projects him as a role-playing point guard who should thrive at the next level paired with a bigger initiator.

He authored a phenomenal final season in Nashville, specifically on the defensive end. Beyond his gargantuan five percent steal rate, no other guard in this class defended near his level on tape. Sharp instincts, elite core and lower body strength and a plus-five-ish (6’5.25”) wingspan allow him to defend well above his listed height.

Miles excelled in multiple different defensive roles his team tasked him with, most obviously thriving as an off-ball disruptor, intercepting passes and mucking up actions. He boasts the lateral agility and anchor to withstand powerful slashers. And when needed, even against towering, NBA-sized big men, Miles bruised down low on switches, denied entry passes and disallowed deep position.

A potent and modern Vanderbilt offense helped him produce at a career level, and he’s no offensive slouch when projecting to the NBA. Miles canned 34.8 percent of his 9.5 3-point attempts per 100 possessions and sank 90.1% of his free throws. Sub-par burst, vertical pop and inconsistent on-ball decision making likely cap his on-ball ceiling, but that shotmaking should suit him for a complementary offensive role in the league.

As most great NBA role players were before the league, Miles is overqualified skill-wise for his likely role, boasting deft footwork, passing/dribbling/finishing ambidexterity and a unique driving rhythm that defenses struggled to pin down. He might occasionally moonlight as a creator with bench units, but any live-dribble juice he brings only boosts his odds of sticking around.

His film and statistical profile transposed onto a 19-year-old player likely earns top-20 consideration. But Miles is not a teenage prospect and wasn’t close to NBA-caliber at that stage of his career. All of these limitations render him a second-round player for me, but in a world where Jose Alvarado (rightfully) closed an NBA finals game for the eventual titles, I’ll take my chances on another overlooked guard with defensive superpowers and projectable strengths on both ends.

Ahmed Jama – Oscar Cluff, Purdue

Purdue big man Oscar Cluff is my pick amongst the ‘fringe’ draft prospects to greatly exceed expectations. Despite Cluff’s skillset being frequently associated with that of an anachronistic big, he has the touch (career 73.2% FT shooter) , passing (career 15% assist rate with a 1.6 A:TO to boot) , and the rebounding (career 19.7 total rebound%) of a budding star at the margins. At 24.5 years old, Cluff is the oldest NCAA prospect in the draft, but has built a resume comparable to the best professional big in the world outside of the NCAA and NBA.

Of all NCAA career profiles in Bart Torvik, Cluff is one of eight players to ever post an offensive rebounding rate over 13% , steal rate over 1%, and career FT% over 70%. Of the 8 players to fall into this career query, six were drafted!

However, Cluff’s impact has not been confined to box score production. In fact, Cluff was able to maintain stellar lineup data along each stop of his NCAA career. From the 2023-24 season Cluff spent at Washington State to his final collegiate season at Purdue, Cluff registered Adjusted Net Ratings of: +2.6, +12.4, and +12.6. The areas that Cluff most consistently influenced his teams’ stylistic profile were, predictably, offensive rebounding and turnover suppression. This consistency is a large part of Cluff’s appeal as a prospect. The lack of imagination needed to project what shape a player’s impact may take in the pros only stands to benefit decision makers and coaches alike.

Wafe – Nate Bittle

The prospect with the best projection in my NBA draft model not to receive a combine invite also happens to be my favorite, Oregon center Nate Bittle. A major part of my player evaluation is the concept of “zooming out”, focusing more on a player’s broad traits and abilities. In Bittle’s case, he is huge and skilled with impressive NCAA metrics: typically a recipe for an NBA career. The pasty stretch five invokes Jay Huff and Luke Kornet, two of the better undrafted steals in recent memory. Another point of comparison is Golden State’s Quentin Post, the 52nd overall pick in the 2024 draft who has massively overperformed his draft slot, currently placing 12th in the class in VORP. Despite being snubbed for the combine, the league would be foolish to allow an NBA caliber big man go undrafted.

Brandon Manuel – Quadir Copeland, Syracuse

Guards who have the ability at this age to get paint touches at will whilst not having tunnel vision are very rare. Copeland aptly possesses this ability.

You’d be hard pressed to find guards in the class who posses his combination of rim assists and rim pressure. He’s super crafty, but his craft doesn’t stop him from playing through contact. The shot needs work and he needs to learn how to read game state better and keep the TOs low, but Copeland’s raw skill and physicality is worth betting on.

Ryan Kaminski – Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State

Lipsey is a tough-nosed guard whose connector skills as a natural point guard with defensive tenacity should provide two-way impact at the next level. His activity is especially apparent on tape, where just a few possessions will reveal a barrage of winning plays. Lipsey will navigate screens at point of attack defensively, hit shooters in shooting pockets, and then set up play finishers as a table setter. He can also score a little bit off the dribble.

Role players who defend, dribble, pass, shoot, and score while looking for the open man when considering the best shot for the team are an easy fit as playoff level rotation players around stars. Lipsey’s skillset clears these thresholds on all fronts.

If you enjoyed this, be on the look-out for more roundtables coming before draft day.