From Steph Curry to Damian Lillard to Ja Morant to CJ McCollum to Pascal Siakam to Paul George, there have been countless examples of mid major draft picks who kept their primary usage when they skipped a level to go pro.
Finding commonalities in this group of stars is almost a trick question, as there are myriad reasons why a player may be ranked lower out of high school than is reflective of their long term abilities. However, there is something counterintuitive in these players not just thriving, but specifically as primaries or high-end secondaries. These players are able to shoulder major burdens on offense through combinations of technical prowess and unique athletic profiles, not a secret formula to anyone but important in its ubiquity across programs.
Searching for mid-major primary/secondary bets in 2023 needs to take into account how more likely high usage mid major players are to transfer up to high major given increased transfer portal and NIL incentives. We have in our sights for the 2024 draft two such prospects who will be leaving the Summit League and Conference USA to join the ACC and WCC (technically dubbed mid major still, but with hardly a competition gap to the ACC).
Andrew Rohde has not yet turned 20 and will be transferring to the University of Virginia after helping to lead St. Thomas to a top 200 finish in only its second ever Division I season. The rising sophomore will form a lethal backcourt with Reece Beekman.
Aly Khalifa is older, 21 and finishing his second playing season with the Charlotte 49ers after redshirting there. He will be transferring to Brigham Young University to play center next to Fousseyni Traore.
Both of these players have the primary stuff, it’s just a matter of the game forming around them and refining their athletic tools to unleash the special. Here’s how they do it, and what could get in their way.
Andrew Rohde – Primary Stuff
Rohde is an escape artist with elite touch, shifting with his 6’6’’ frame from attacking to pulling up or kicking out in an instant. Aesthetically, he checks the boxes, a whirlwind of instantaneous playmaking when he’s on, always hunting for ways to heat up.
Checking the boxes for a primary prospect works a little differently. Rather than the toolsy route, these technicians nurture a fluid creativity balanced against constant opportunism. Essentially, primaries need access to a nexus point where they can go from advantage created to advantage capitalized. They need to switch from creating the seam to filling it without the opponent adjusting. The rarity is in the process of climbing that ladder.
To be more literal, primaries have to both get by their opponent and have the skill to make the bucket or right pass, and awareness to know the difference. But most of all, they need to be comfortable repeating their particular brand of advantage over and over. That’s why it has to look easy.
For Rohde, it does not always look easy, at least not yet. But we see forming the outline of that nexus, and when it hits, it’s not just good but great.
The first way Rohde creates advantages is his shiftiness. The first step is good if not great for 6’6” height, and last step can flail with poor planting. We should mention, finally, that Andrew Rohde is very skinny. Listed at 160 pounds, Will Barton could likely outlift the former Tommy, current Hoo. But he is vigilant nonetheless pursuing routes to shake his opponent, and willing to mask his drive against opponents’ cadence before changing the pattern entirely, whether in iso or using screens. When he commits to a move, it typically works.
This ability is also supported by a good core stance in drives, the kind that gives him All-Star upside (yes, you read that right). Despite his slight build, Rohde squares his body as if he wasn’t. He attacks with sharp angles into the body of his opponent, often followed by fadeaways in the paint. He shot 41% on midrange jumpers with only 8% assisted, a number that showcases his physicality sprung out of will and technique.
His strong technique also allows Rohde to shoot with ease from distance. Skinnier guards often struggle with movement shooting with even a smidge of inefficiency in their form, but Rohde can fire from NBA range off of movement without a second’s hesitation. This higher difficulty of shot and, well, the fact that he could indeed benefit from more core strength, led to inconsistent results. But Rohde seemed to figure it out as his endurance grew, shooting 41% from deep from mid-January to end of season. The touch is very good, shooting 62% at the rim with only 19% of makes assisted as well as 81% from the free throw line.
Finally, Rohde is a creative passer, if not a perfect one. His ideas are good, particularly aware of how his drive gravity creates lanes for others. Often he can be seen predicting which help defender will pinch in, kicking to a shooter just as the opponent commits. The limitation here is again lack of strength, as Rohde may plant his feet fuzzily which leads to passing inaccuracy. As the strength improves, expect the assist numbers to as well.
Rohde will be particularly devastating running pick and roll. His sense of timing is sublime, again urged by his urgency, a player you can count on to sniff out an opponent’s weak point. The vision lacks a bit here and there, as he may miss unexpectedly open opponents in favor of predetermined reads, but overall excellent for his age.
The biggest question with primary bets is not just can their defense hold up, but can it in a way that harvests energy for their offensive usage. Rohde, to his credit, is interested in more than that, constantly seeking out ways to strip or tip the ball away from unsuspecting opponents. You almost forget he is closer to 150 than 200 pounds based on his activity, though reminded when he comes head to head with a stronger opponent in the interior.
My biggest confidence in Rohde’s physicality holding up as intensity grows is due to his approach to the game. As a freshman carrying 28% usage, it would be understandable if he caught his breath on the defensive end. Rather, Rohde sported a 3% steal rate, with no other freshman matching that combination of thresholds (Duke’s Kyle Filipowski and Syracuse’s Judah Mintz were the closest). His 11% defensive rebound rate is respectable, speaking to his sense of timing. He tries hard when screened, setting himself up well by taking the same sharp angles that define his driving game on offense.
Aly Khalifa – Primary Stuff
Moving from guard to center, the aesthetics remain elite with the 6’11’’ Khalifa. Perhaps the best passer in all of college basketball, Aly also shot 38% on 126 threes. He is big skill personified, with lack of buzz coming from older age at 21 and also his history of being above optimal playing weight.
A major prospect from a young age, Aly Khalifa was part of Egypt’s U-17 squad and trained with the NBA Academy, playing next to Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Olivier Maxence-Prosper and others on the prestigious team selected to compete against top European youth talent (they won the tournament, with Khalifa as a significant contributor). Never considered mobile, Khalifa peaked in weight at a listed 255 pounds at Charlotte, clearly not the best version of his playing self as a freshman post hia redshirt season. He slimmed down some for his second playing season, still not in ideal shape but now dominant on the court regardless.
Uncertainty can be your friend in basketball. Specifically, it can be beneficial to have access to a wide range of outcomes that others don’t, and sometimes it requires leaning into the uncertainty to benefit. While he is still figuring out his optimal basketball build, Aly is already one of the best players in college basketball. Should he continue to advance his physical regimen, it’s difficult to say what the upside is, and why, like Rohde, an All-Star level offensive game is not entirely off the table (yes, you also read that right).
Returning to our analysis of his game and specifically as a potential primary, Aly Khalifa creates space simply by being on the money with his decision-making and advanced with his skills. The passing is the most obvious, with a 22% assist rate, 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio.
I have confidence saying Khalifa is the best at hitting cutters in the entire NCAA, and perhaps its best overall passer since Sharife Cooper. His passing ability is mediated by lack of dribble drive ability, but Aly hardly needs to manipulate his college opponents considering his passing accuracy, timing and general decision-making.
But Khalifa has a developed scoring repertoire, too. He shot 48 for 126 (38%) from three, 24 for 61 (39%) from midrange, 88 for 125 at the rim (70%) and 32 for 43 (74%) from the line, all indicators of a very good shooter, particularly for his height. Those numbers pop even more considering over half of his rim makes and over 90% of his midrange field goals were self-created, meaning a high degree of difficulty to showcase his touch.
Particularly impressive is his technique, executing flawless no-load threes (where he does not need to bring the ball down below his shoulders) and blind hook shots over his head. With only one dunk on the season despite being 6’11’’, Khalifa had to use every ounce of touch and craftiness to get his points.
His scoring consistency could have been better, as he often settled outside the paint as the team’s best table setter, preferring to stretch the offense with his shooting gravity where he can find streaming cutters. He also has an allergy to drawing fouls, which we’ll get to later. But as far as play finishing technique, Khalifa is clearly studied. No better game showcased this than against Western Kentucky, matched up with the 7’5’’ shotblocking fiend Jamarion Sharpe. Khalifa got up a total 14 attempts from three, connecting on six of them, particularly heating up down the stretch. He showed not just clean catch and shoot ability, but also hit off of some movement or awkward angles, always able to stabilize with his supreme balance and technique.
Essential to both the scoring and passing working though, is Khalifa’s exceptional screening. Here I’ll leave you with one clip to exemplify how he approaches screening. Aly takes out first his man, locking him up momentarily and also misleading his intention. Immediately after, Khalifa instead switches to screening the ball handler’s man, now slowing both parts of the pick and roll to allow his teammate to waltz to the hoop. Khalifa consistently uses his full shoulder when setting screens without fouling, a true art in itself.
Khalifa’s strengths point to his dedication to his craft, but also compensatory necessities to overcome his athletic deficiencies. Reading the above strengths paints a Jokic-esque picture, but Khalifa, while a good handler for his size, does not have the preternatural probing ability off the bounce of his spiritual protégé. Much like Rohde he struggles to draw fouls, but the tools are there to potentially do that as well.
Khalifa’s defense has a better bedrock for stability right now, simply by virtue of Aly being the size he is. He moves well when already moving, but would be around worst in the NBA for abruptly changing direction or accelerating. He can buy good will and keep a scheme together, though, through his above average activity and awareness.
Are They Athletic Enough?
I have little doubt buying the skillsets of both Rohde and Khalifa at face value, convincing in their offensive firepower as prospects. But to even approach primary or secondary usage you need to be able to enforce your will to set up what you want when you want, or at least be ready to take advantage of what the defense allows.
Between them they totaled 11 dunks on the season, and 10 of those were by the guard, Andrew Rohde. Rohde has the length and shiftiness to get rim opportunities, selective but still ready to take advantage. Rohde, in fact, plays with a good bit of physicality considering his low BMI. The free throw rate is not high, but it is not through lack of trying, and with Rohde’s ability to create space with change of direction, not as necessary to perform at a high level.
Rohde needs to add weight, but his strong sense of technique points to a player ready to maximize whatever is added. He has a decently wide frame, although more sharp than rounded shoulders means he will more often be a cut-into-opponent player than bullying with strength. He already has the core strength to shoot from distance, and that additional weight will only help to stabilize the shot and perhaps add consistency.
The key area for Rohde is the paint. He is studied from the school of Jalen Brunson, with a proclivity for attempting to stop abruptly and pivot once two feet in the lane. Despite the sound strategy, this is probably the weakest current part of his skillset, as his lack of core strength means difficulty planting his feet to pivot cleanly. This led to unnecessary turnovers, but also occasional sloppy passing as he tries to regain his footing.
I’m most optimistic about Rohde as an athlete due to his screen navigation. Understanding his own limitations and strengths, Rohde anticipates screens by ducking sharply to the side, with good acceleration to catch up to his man. That understanding shows a player highly aware of how to weaponize what he has, encouraging that he will figure out how to incorporate weight gains in a similar manner.
Aly Khalifa, meanwhile, comes from the other end of the spectrum, playing above optimal weight but on the right trajectory from his freshman season. We have tape of him playing closer to his ideal weight with FIBA and NBA Academy, but still have yet to see his best physique.
On the offensive end, it is difficult to say how much athletic gains will help Khalifa’s odds as an initiator/playmaker. He has learned to succeed while relatively stationary with the ball, ultra-intentional with his decisions. The biggest item he currently lacks is ability to generate quick paint touches, with complete lack of acceleration nor the meandering dribble of a Jokic. That outcome – being so deft with your handle to protect it from much shorter defenders swiping – is unrealistic for anyone 6’11’’.
But the main item that can improve is his interior foul drawing. The pieces seem to be in place here: Khalifa is adept when he decides to post with intention of scoring, bumping shoulders right when his defender is off balance. However his inability to dunk with ease (only 1 the entire season) means he prefers to release contested hooks rather than build his repertoire out of physicality. Khalifa has the craftiness of a grifter, but that has been far from his modus operandi for bucket-getting thus far.
Should he add a modicum of burst, Aly might be able to take advantage of small space advantages better than he does now. But his foundation of scoring is so polished in favor of avoiding these confrontations as a trade-off. Here again we remind that his touch indicators are quite strong, shooting 70% at the rim despite only a single dunk.
The Impact of a Timely Transfer
Finally, both players will be receiving a boost from joining larger programs, both on an off the court. On the court, both players get better front/backcourt mates, with Khalifa likely to start next to the screen and dive big, more mobile Fousseyni Traore. At UVA, Rohde should start next to Reece Beekman, one of the best defenders in college basketball who has improved mightily as a table setter. Both duos are synergistic by type, with Traore and Beekman more physical and mobile than their new offensively talented teammates.
The team playing styles are encouraging as well. BYU loves to have their bigs operate outside the paint, making decisions; UVA keeps things simple for their guards, likely to be fully encouraging of Rohde to maximize his strengths (expect a ton of threes). But not having to worry about the tougher defensive assignments with more defensive-minded teammates should make the leap in competition more than tolerable.
Off the court, the athletic department budgets balloon from comparable measures with these prospects’ incumbent schools. Going from Charlotte to BYU means about double the program budget surrounding Khalifa, while Rohde gets a much more dramatic 20x increase from the newly D1 St. Thomas to the former champion University of Virginia. There is not a 1:1 correlation in athletic gains by university budget, but for players needing more attention to physical development, it can only help, and perhaps drastically.
Conclusion
Looking at our player diagrams (dark gray = current trajectory, light gray = potential), we see the skillsets of likely NBA role players with All-Star potential on offense and starter ceilings on defense. That might be a tough pill to swallow for players you may not have known about before starting this article. But both have impressive pre-NCAA pedigrees – Khalifa with FIBA and NBA Academy, Rohde as ultra-productive HS player and good at EYBL – and shown rare combinations of production, playmaking and shotmaking. And we have not seen either’s optimal physique, with gains available for their driving and foul-drawing. Both are already quite coordinated; additional core strength could make them both three point and midrange shooting monsters, potentially capable of large offensive burdens at any level.
When aesthetics meets production, I pay attention. That’s first and foremost what we have here, as both players simply look the part when they’re launching threes or finding teammates at the perfect time. But the accumulation of tools is convincing as well, and neither of these two is wired to be done. Look for an entire new bag of tricks from both this coming season.
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