Fast like fox.
Strong like bull.
Slippery like snake.
Paolo Banchero stepped into the league a walking mismatch.
A 6’10” 250lb tank in transition and North-South force of nature has the tight handles, clean footwork, and high feel to one-vs-one anyone in sight.
He operates both ends of the pick-and-roll with ease, relentlessly attacking the rack with finesse, body and ball control to maintain balance on drives and jumpers.
Banchero beats up bigs on the block, glides past guards on the wing, and wedges past wings inbetween; Paolo speeds past smalls and overpowers the powerful.
Raised in Seattle, Washington, a young hoops fan grew up rooting for the local Huskies squad, attending games and cheering for collegiate standouts Markelle Fultz and Terrence Ross.
He admired tall tough shot-making midrange assassins, incepting hours and hours of highlights from unstoppable scorers, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant.
His mother, Rhonda Smith-Banchero, was a former professional basketball player who retired as the Washington Huskies’ all-time leading scorer.
She would develop the skills that define his game on the court and instill a decision-making process off of it, decision-making that may have once saved his life.
In 2018, Police held a fifteen year-old Banchero and his seventeen year-old friend, Washington State guard Noah Williams, at gunpoint. The crime? The teenagers were leaving a concert, driving a Jeep. Police were looking for a “reportedly stolen Jeep.”
“I had a situation with the police when I was 15, where me and my friend had got pulled over, and they pulled guns on us, and we got arrested. They had suspected we stole the car, but it wasn’t [true]. They had the wrong car and everything, so it was a situation that I had to deal with back then,” Banchero told @MarcJSpears in this incredible story,
Banchero and Williams would pursue a lawsuit against the King County Sheriff’s Office, with goals of receiving a public apology and effecting change.
On Sept. 6, 2019, the Associated Press reported that the King County Sheriff’s Office was ordered to apologize, pay $80,000, and implement new use-of-force guidelines to settle a federal civil rights lawsuit brought by two African American teens, Williams and Banchero, who say they were wrongly held at gunpoint at a concert.
Banchero’s coachability allowed his teachers to help mold a decision-making process.
“I’ve had some encounters where I had to do the right thing in situations that were tricky. Just knowing what my mom had taught me and using that was big,” Banchero said.
“Paolo was always driven,” his mother, Smith-Banchero says, “Any sport, we would tell him, ‘Don’t go out there and mess around… ‘Don’t practice bad shots. Don’t practice that mess.’ And he was just always listening. Coachable, even from that age.”
“Paolo is really coachable. And a big reason for that is because of the family he comes from… All he is and all he ever hopes to be is a result of his mother,” – Legendary Duke Coach K
Banchero goes on to praise Coach K for taking his raw talent and helping “blend it all”, via the Knuckleheads Podcast with Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles:
“(Coach K) taught me how to be more efficient. How to use my size and god-given ability to keep things simple. Helped me when I got to the league just blend it all, blend the skill with being able to dominate. He helped me a lot though.” – Paolo Banchero, via Knuckleheads Podcast / Player Tribune
Banchero highlights his current head coach Jamahl Mosley for giving himself and teammates freedom to play through mistakes with the expectation of playing hard on both ends of the floor in return:
“(Coach Mosley)’s helped me a tremendous amount, too; and he’s been there for me the whole time, he’s been real hands on the whole time. Since I’ve first got there, summer league practices, him being there, damn near going through drills with me, playing D, and just always being a voice.
He’s preached me playing with freedom, but also, having to play hard, play defense, not just be a one-way player. He lets me play through mistakes; he lets everyone play through mistakes.
He a coach who’s gonna let us play as long as we giving effort and playing the right way. He’s a great coach, man; it’s a blessing.” – Paolo Banchero, via Knuckleheads Podcast / Player Tribune
Paolo’s Historic Rookie Season
Paolo Banchero just put up one of the greatest rookie seasons in the history of the sport.
Perhaps his most impressive trait as a first-year player, Banchero burst out of the gates rating among the all-time greats at racking up foul calls as a rookie.
Unlike some high-volume whistle-drawers, Banchero collects free points at the pinstripe: Paolo shoots 74% from the free throw line.
Even though it’s the least entertaining aspect of the game to fans, free throws are still the most efficient shot around.
FT% serves as a relevant predictor for future scorers, revealing hard-working athletes willing to spend the time to develop touch talent into working ball-skills.
Banchero being the best in his class and already amongst the league leaders at racking up fouls while taking the free points at an efficient rate reveals Paolo’s foul-drawing to be one of the best bets of reliable scoring around the league going forward.
How does Banchero generate so many free throws as a rookie? Sharing similarities in the face-up attack with Zion Williamson, like unstoppable downhill drives with a head of steam, Bullyball Banchero makes light of the opposition, drawing fouls by staying light on his feet before gracefully exploding at any time.
As lead decision-makers, these primary playmakers take advantage of parallel processing skills to keep track of all the moving parts, proprioception to perceive the position and movement of their own body through space, and processing speed to evaluate the next best action to take.
Nothing rocks the house like a Paolo Power Slam.
Paolo finished the season ranked 19th all-time in Free Throw Volume among Rookies since 1959, tying Zion with 7.4 FTA per game.
Some of the most dominant scorers to ever play can be seen in this data visualization of high-volume rookie free throw takers, with Rick Barry, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson leading the group in efficiency.
Video Visualizing Paolo Banchero’s standing among the Top-25 All-Time NBA Rookies in Free Throw Attempts Per Game Volume since 1958-59 with FT% Efficiency via interactive data visualization in Python.
Paolo quickly put up performances on par with any rookie before him.
Oct 13, 2022: Paolo Banchero signs sneaker deal with Jordan Brand
Oct 19, 2022: Paolo Banchero throws down JUMPMAN Poster Power Slam in the first official game of his NBA career
Making his jumpman contract official in game one, Banchero scored more points in his NBA debut (27 PTS) than any rookie since Allen Iverson twenty seven years ago. Only three No. 1 overall picks since 1969 have dropped 25+ PTS, 5+ REB, and 5+ AST in their NBA debut: LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Paolo Banchero
Paolo recorded two Career-Highs in his tenth career game with 33 PTS & 16 REB, joining LeBron as the only teenagers in NBA history to record a game with 30+ PTS & 15+ REB while becoming the first Magic Rookie since Shaquille O’Neal to record a game with 30+ PTS & 10+REB.
The very next game, Paolo became the fifth Teenager in NBA History to record consecutive 30-point games, joining LeBron, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, and Devin Booker.
Paolo’s 20-PT Game Tracker:
- Six straight 20-point games to start a career ties Grant Hill, Dominique Wilkins, and Oscar Robertson for the third-most of any player.
- The last three players to score 20+ points in 15 of the first 20 games of their career: Michael Jordan, Zion Williamson, and Paolo Banchero
- Finished first season with 40 20-point games, the same number as Rookie LeBron.
First 15 Games: Banchero became the fifth player in NBA history since 1950 to have 300+ PTS, 100+ REBS, & 50+ ASTS in his first 15 career games, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bernard King, Sidney Wicks, and Oscar Robertson.
First 31 Games: Since the ABA-NBA merger, the only three Rookies to reach 600 points, 200 rebounds, and 120 assists through their first 31 games are Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Paolo Banchero, via @jkubatko of Basketball Reference.
First Season: Banchero is one of nine rookies ever to average 19.5 PPG – 6.5 RPG – 3.5 APG, joining Luka Doncic, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, Sidney Wicks, Elgin Baylor, and Blake Griffin.
Winning the NBA’s 2023 Rookie of the Year in a 98-2 landslide vote, Paolo Banchero became the third Orlando Magic player to win the award alongside Shaquille O’Neal and Mike Miller, who happens to now be Banchero’s agent.
Walking mismatches gain advantages for different reasons as players who can score on any position defender 1-5, no matter the size or speed of the man in front of them, who create scoring opportunities for themselves and teammates no matter who or what the defense throws at them.
Possessing taller height, soft touch, and sound footwork on the block creates an advantage for any player posting up.
Players who fly past defenders on the perimeter, accelerating without a screen and decelerating on a dime show an advantage in burst and body control; having the handles to find angles and dribble drive through defenses without turning over the rock reveals ball control.
Scorers who combine these advantage in faceup and backdown situations tend to be effective in ISO and Post-Ups, playtypes without a screen.
Playmakers with vision and a combination of these advantages may be more effective with the help of a screen running handoffs or operating Pick-and-Roll.
Timing for teammates and understanding the offense can help players measure up cuts from off-ball wing or backdoor baseline. Rim-rollers with soft hands and big bounce can create vertical advantages as lob threats.
Catch-and-shoot skills for players who can knock down a jumper from deep from a standstill, especially from the corners, tend to be efficient in Spot Up situations. Those shooters become even more effective in Spot Up when they put the ball on the floor off a pump-fake and dribble-drive against closeouts to keep the defense rotating.
Shooters with agility, conditioning, and the ablity to catch and shoot off the run create varying advantages off the ball running Off Screens like elevator/iverson/stagger sets through the paint, or into Handoffs around the arc, through any angle they need to create a split second opening needed to get a shot off before the defender can contest.
Stars who score on and off the ball, drive and kick when drawing help, and look to draw fouls through contact combine a multitude of these advantages into an all-around shooting profile, becoming scoring creators making decisions on a play-by-play basis who bend defenses first before reading and reacting second.
Could Paolo Banchero become a heliocentric scoring option, a LeBron or Luka type point-forward who runs the entire offense, with the ball in his hands every play and nearly every shot being the result of a decision made by the star player?
If Paolo scores at good efficiency with higher usage, that may be worth exploring. Generally speaking, though, championship teams are built with more balance in mind. Maximizing a player’s box score production is one thing, whereas creating a sustainable system that consistently creates good shots is another challenge entirely.
Finding ways to make life easier for the team’s best player is a primary goal. Flanking that player with other good decision-making connectors opens up the floor in a variety of ways. Instead of allowing defenses to overload the paint to stop one star from driving at the rim, a well-defined system forces that defense to worry about all the ways that star can beat them all at once.
Consider one of the only ways to slow down Steph Curry. Arguably the best on-ball scorer in the league, someone who perennially tops the league in ISO and P&R efficiency, Steph is magic with the rock in his hands. However, one critique in the all-time scorer discussions is that Steph can’t shoot over multiple defenders like a Kevin Durant; when Curry has the ball, trapping double teams can force the pass.
This strategy tends to happen when a player is so good, the defense’s only hope is to send a second defender at that player, leaving somebody wide open. The defense would rather guard 4 players with 3 defenders than play straight up against this star. This results in open shots for teammates, which is by definition good offense.
Why don’t the Warriors run the Harden Rockets offense, endless on-ball reps for the most efficient on-ball scorer in the league? Because Steve Kerr realizes the benefits of balance, keeping the entire team involved, and most importantly, building an entire system around the threat of Steph Curry rather than relying on the production of Steph Curry.
Consider On-Ball Steph as the ace up Coach Kerr’s playbook sleeve. Even though Curry is more than capable of running the offense every play, why ask Steph to create a good shot for the team 50+ times per game when the team can use Curry’s off-ball gravity to create a good shot for someone every possession without the tradeoff of overtasking the individual with decision-making fatigue?
By building an off-ball screening system of endless relocating handoffs, defenses not only have to worry about the ball, but now have to keep track of the greatest shooter’s whereabouts on the court at all times, living in perilous fear that a heartbreaking dagger could launch from deep at any moment.
The Warriors thrive on off-ball movement, handoffs, and screens; could Paolo emulate the Draymond role as a handoff short-roll playmaker surrounded by shooters, with the added benefit of Banchero threatening to drive, kick, or rise for the shot at any time?
Could an NBA offense rely entirely on the scoring creation play-by-play decision-making of Paolo Banchero? Probably.
Would that offense maximize the team’s chances of winning, or simply maximize the star player’s output in the box score?
Penciling himself in for the Finals before the season started for nearly a decade, LeBron is the one player who has been able to single-handedly will his team to the biggest stage over and over again, sometimes with little help. While LeBron’s Finals appearances essentially serve as the exception to the rule that ‘teams win championships’, even James needed multiple co-stars to finally get over the hump.
Those Cavs and Heat title teams relied on ISO turn-taking more than a system bigger than one player, yet that overwhelming firepower was enough to win multiple rings.
Could Banchero emulate a scorer combining elements in the face-up game between Zion, Melo, and LeBron as a bucket-getting driving force who needs no help to get buckets, draw fouls, and create looks for himself and opportunties to kick to others?
Banchero would need a sizable jump in impact to be anywhere near LeBron’s level, but Rookies who average 20 PPG and 7.4 FTA are rare, and like Zion before him, that superstar jump may arrive sooner than later.
Who are the ideal player types to surround Paolo with, ISO killers like Kyrie next to LeBron and Ingram next to Zion with 3pt shooters, or as many well-rounded good basketball playing connectors as possible?
Banchero’s scoring versatility as a pull-up threat, play-finishing downhill force, and all-around scoring creator big wing helps the team he’s on keep their play-calling options open.
The Magic should explore every avenue to constructing a sustainable offensive system.
Like most teams, Orlando’s most effective halfcourt sets relied on execution:
Paolo’s on-ball double-team gravity in ISO, faceups, and backdowns; P&R Ball-Handling precision from Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, and Cole Anthony; Jalen Suggs’ sneaky success in Handoffs and reliable Strong Screen chemistry in The Wagner-Carter Connection; Spot Up closeout-attacking efficiency from Gary Harris, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole, and the Wagner Bros; Post-Up mismatches for everyone from Bol Bol and Mo Wagner to Fultz and Paolo; all of Orlando’s frontcourt being strong play-finishers as the P&R Roll-Man.
Visualizing Scoring Efficiency by Playtype PPP for Orlando Magic rotation players, data via Synergy Sports:
Banchero’s proven one-on-one prowess from any spot on the floor serves as a legitimate offensive hub on its own. Due to high volume and dipping efficiency throughout the year, Banchero scored at an average rate in most playtypes.
Zooming out, the most impressive signs are Paolo’s scoring versatility and all-around shot profile: good Post-Up efficiency as a Rookie, dominance in energy playtypes Putbacks, Transition, and Cuts, and solid efficiency hovering between 0.85 and 0.9 PPP when running both ends of the P&R, ISO, Handoffs, and Spot Up plays.
While individually each rate is fairly average, being able to score reliably in multiple playtypes, being good at everything with the handle and feel to create shots for one’s self and others, creates a sum of its parts effect greater than any one play, an all-around walking mismatch who can defeat different matchups in different ways.
Watch Paolo Banchero drills four threes on the way to 22 PTS in one half against the Celtics, hitting jump shots on and off the dribble out of all sorts of sets: Horns, Horns Flare, DHO, P&R, ISO, and even a fan-favorite Melo-inspired Post-Up Turnaround Baseline Fadeaway
Fourth Quarter Franz
Another year, another sound season for Fundamental Franz Wagner in the blue and white pinstripes.
Wagner methodically breaks down defenses, penetrating the paint in pick-and-roll for snake-dribbling euro-stepping running hooks.
Franz does his damage attacking from every direction on the court, scoring effectively in playtypes involving strong strong screens from Wendell Carter Jr., usually starting from the corner of halfcourt for an Angle P&R with smooth finishing on drives and clean shooting from deep.
Banchero and Wagner give the Magic an advantage held by few teams: two 6’10” wing playmakers who penetrate the paint at will. If Paolo and Franz make up the decidedly untradeable core going forward, then a drive-and-kick offensive hub between the two tall scoring creators exists.
Wagner masterfully runs halfcourt offense with the help of a screen in Handoffs and Pick-and-Rolls, while Banchero self-creates his own advantages facing up defenders in ISOs and Post-Ups.
Wagner shows incredible timing, feel for teammates, and understanding of the game. Franz cuts with purpose, flies on fast breaks, and stays moving off the ball to create easy scoring opportunities for himself.
Averaging near 19 PPG with a solid shooting line of 49-36-84, Wagner maintained good efficiency with high volume.
Zooming out to total offense, Wagner averaged over 1.0 point per possession (1.03 PPP) on 17.8 offensive possessions per game, second in total volume behind Paolo’s 21.6 possessions while rating above league average in efficiency. (0.98)
Fourth Quarter Franz was The Closer countless times this season, ranking 5th in total 4th QTR Points in January before eventually slipping to 9th by the end of the season.
Highlighting Chef Wagner cooking up his Fourth Quarter Franz recipe in the clutch:
Orlando’s two team-first forwards didn’t take long to gel.
Against Toronto, the Magic’s tall tough shot-making duo combine for 57 points on 20/27 from the field scoring 87% TS%.
Wagner’s defense is strong, with good rotations, helping the Magic slow down opposing stars.
The Magic’s defense held their own shutting down Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to a combined 7/27 FG. When guarded by Paolo, Franz, and Bol, the Clippers star duo had trouble getting a clean shot off: in these matchups: Kawhi shot 2/11 and George shot 3/9.
Franz closed the Clippers out with two FLOATAs in the final minute.
Franz’ one-legged Dirk fadeaway became a go-to move for Wagner last year. While Franz hasn’t gone to the move as often later in the year, Wagner knows he can pull the leg-kick fade any time he creates an advantage with a quick deceleration near the rim.
Poetically, Fourth Quarter Franz closes out Luka’s Mavs with the patented driving leg-kick Franz Dirk Fade
In Indiana, Wagner did his best Luka impression on the left wing, knocking down 3 Pull-Up Triples, 2 Stepbacks, over 1 switching Myles Turner.
In Portland, Franz dropped 15 PTS in the final quarter to beat the Blazers with his patented running hooks, gliding reverse finger-rolls, a catch-and-shoot triple, and even hitting Dame with a his own medicine, the pull-up trey.
the theme of the season: no lead is safe against Orlando.
The Mosley Magic Don’t Quit.
The Redemption of Markelle Fultz
A broken back.
A pit of despair.
An impossible leap.
And yet, The Dark Knight Rises.
“Why do we fall? So that we can learn to pick ourselves up.”
A proven full-time starting point guard for the foreseeable future.
A shoulder-faking midrange assassin who adds funky flare to every move.
A table-setting pick-and-roll maestro who gets to any spot below the arc he wants, traps defenders on his hip with hostage dribbles, and stays looking for pull-up jump shots, kickouts to open shooters, and no-look lobs to the dunker spot.
Markelle Fultz is officially back, dropping dimes like rhymes on decelerating drives.
MF Doom leaves his adversaries in dismay.
Overcoming injury, reforming his body, escaping the pit he was trapped in.
Whether or not he is The Batman remains unclear.
The Rise of Markelle Middy is a feel-good story any basketball fan can get behind.
3 Markelle Fultz quotes from the Knuckleheads Podcast via Player Tribune with Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles
Fultz on perseverance to fight through injuries:
“I just really learned how to focus on the day and win the day, and the next thing you know it got closer and closer and closer. Again, I think my love for the game really kept me going. Because I never really got a chance to showcase what I really wanted to do and I’d be dammed if I let an injury keep me from doing that…
I love the support and everything, but I strive off the doubt and the hate, the people saying I can’t do it. And I also understand, I’m thankful for where I’m at, it could be way worse , and I also could not be playing right now. So like, I take the good, and I’m thankful for it, and I give all the glory to god, but I also understand I have so much room that I can grow.
That’s what keeps me going, cuz I really feel like there is no ceiling. I can get stronger, I’m doing what I’m doing now, I can still shoot better, there’s so much stuff that I can continue to do, and that’s what keeps me going. Because I still feel like, my IQ for the game is at a very high level, but I still can continue to make my teammates better, be a better defender, everything.”
Fultz on Paolo growing up as a fan of his Washington Huskies:
“It’s crazy. I think it’s dope, a unique experience.
Well for me, this is my second time playing with a #1 pick (Ben Simmons and Paolo) so like, I also understand what he’s going through in a sense. So I feel like, me being through what I’ve been through, I think he understands that he has somebody real, who’s also been a #1 pick, so I feel like he knows that I’m somebody he can talk to.
A real hooper, and also has the Seattle ties, makes it even better. Again, a real hooper right there, he’s gonna be something real special. He’s already something special, but as the game continues to slow down for him, I’m super excited; I’m honored that I had a chance to be able to be a point guard that can help him right now.“
Fultz on Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s impact on the team:
“I think the biggest thing with Mosley… he care about us as people.
It’s not just about hoop for him; don’t get me wrong, he cares about winning, he hates losing, but he more wants us to be great young men, especially for a team like us, we got a lot of young guys.
That always makes you feel better as a person, coming in knowing that a guy isn’t just worried about winning or just talking basketball all the time, he’s asking how you’re doing, he’s worried about how your family, doing stuff like that.
So like, I think that’s a big part about it, but he also has a good combination of getting on us, but like understanding we have a young team so making it fun, like it’s not all drill-drill-drill, it’s like a good combination of come in and get your work in, lock in for right now, and then you can go enjoy, do what you gotta do, but we gotta take care of business…
Understanding we got a coach that rocks with us, we got to protect him, we stress that a lot to our teammates.”
Coach Mosley gives players freedom to play, the only requirement: play hard.
Orlando started the season 5-16 without Fultz. Markelle returned to the lineup, and hasn’t missed a game since.
In 58 games with Fultz at the helm, The Magic posted a .500 record, the 7th-best Defense, and the 6th-best FT Rate on Offense.
Defining an offensive system around what already exists could be Orlando’s clearest path to success. Endless “paint and spray” drive-and-kick ball-movement allows everyone to feel involved, feel out the game, and feel motivated to give their all.
A fast, fun, watchable offense built inside-out from paint penetration, the team moves to the pace of their point.
The Magic are one of four teams with three players driving to the rack at least ten times per game, joining the Clippers, Pelicans, and Celtics. Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game.
The Showtime Magic run the break off forced turnovers and endlessly attack the rack behind the three-headed monster of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz.
Visualizing Players averaging 10+ Drives per game while totaling over 80+ 3PT AST:
Highlighting Magic Markelle Moments this season
One of the biggest highlights of the season, Markelle Middy closing out the Celtics in Boston during the six-game win-streak that would turn out to be the longest of the season.
Markelle controls the pace, setting the table for teammates, looking for the best shot for his team.
Revenge Game Fultz dishes out seven dimes in a six minute span before half before Paolo, Suggs, and Mo Wagner spur a big comeback win in the second half in Philadelphia.
Markelle Middy shows off his two-way tenacity traveling to the West Coast.
While Fultz’s form is automatic in the midrange, his shot release on the three-point jumper looks like a different form. Fultz hypes up Magic fans late in the season with the cleanest-looking in-rhythm pull-up three of his Orlando Magic career in a monster third-quarter sequence in a Sunday afternoon game against Jaden Ivey’s Pistons.
Cole The Sparkplug
This roster is filled with flat-out hustlers, players coming off the bench ready to give their all every second on the floor.
Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield diving for loose balls, Jalen Suggs beating offenses to the point of attack, and Cole Anthony flying in to crash the boards or timing a Cut to the rim right as Fultz starts to bend the defense on a drive.
Cole Anthony may finally have found his ideal role as a third guard commanding second units and closing games with a hot hand, at least for now.
Ice Cole’s smooth floater, mean elbow middy pull-up, and flashy handles remain effective for creating shots Anthony is confident in making, especially against drop coverage. Even if those shots qualify as tough shots the defense generally wants the opponent to take, making those tough shots semi-consistently is worth exploring the hot hand theory any night.
Being able to operate high pick-and-roll offense between double drags and horns sets to create shots for everyone on the floor is a legitimate NBA skill, if not one of the most desired by front offices constructing an offense.
Cole has rapidly improved as a half-court decision maker, slowing down when he needs to create while never wasting effort on either end. Anthony stays a threat to pull-up at any moment or ignore the screen entirely and attack the rack by driving away from the action.
Once Fultz returned to the starting lineup, Cole was slotted in the sixth man role, proving to be an effective high-energy rotation player. Both point guards thrived in impact, with Anthony’s shooting through the roof in efficiency.
The regular rotation’s leading pull-up three-point threats by efficiency were Gary Harris (45% on 0.6 3PA) and Cole Anthony (39% on 1.0 3PA)
The regular rotation’s leading free throw shooters by efficiency were Gary Harris (90% FT% on 0.6 FTA) and Cole Anthony (89% FT% on 2.8 FTA)
While it’s not quite the Harden-CP3 Rockets playing a Hall of Fame point guard at all times, the depth of Fultz and Cole allows Orlando to always play a starting-caliber point guard capable of executing pick-and-rolls.
The Magic can rely on either point to control the pace and run half-court offense, making the game easier for all involved and balancing team roles by allowing play-finishing scorers to focus on putting the ball in the hoop.
Anthony showed promise in P&R action in the 2021-22 season, averaging the same scoring efficiency of 0.9 PPP as Rookie Franz, on higher volume.
Streaky scoring with reliable effort and good feel for running the offense is appreciated on second units and deserves a look at starting with night-to-night consistency. If efficiency stays level as volume increases, that rate should be tested to its limits.
Visualizing 2022-23 Orlando Magic players who can create shots for themselves and others, the floor-spacing scoring creators via Cerebro Sports data:
Good Ol’ Gary Harris
Sometimes lost in the fold in all the talks of the exciting young core is good ol’ Gary Harris, Orlando’s starting shooting guard for 72 games over the last two seasons.
Gary Harris has slid right into an ideal C&S play-finishing role, maximizing his efficiency as a three-point shooter and adding real two-way impact as a POA defender when on the floor.
While not quite the same scorer as his Denver peak, Harris has made huge jumps in efficiency across the board since his arrival in Orlando.
Gary posted 49% True Shooting percentage in his first twenty games after the trade to Orlando, rising all the way up to 57% TS% in Franz’ rookie season and 62% TS% in Paolo’s rookie season, with his USG% dropping from 20% to 16% to 12% in the process.
Harris 3PAr volume ballooned from 35% to 55% to 71% over that same time frame, with his 3P% efficiency climbing from 36% (3.3 3PA) to 38% (5 3PA) to 43% (4.5 3PA)
Nine Orlando Magic Players on the roster average over 2+ C&S 3PA when they play, all shooting at least 34%, led in 3P% by Gary Harris (43%) and Franz Wagner. (41%)
The outbreak of Franz, the arrival of Paolo, and the return of Fultz all contributed to fewer creation needs and more off-ball play-finishing looks for Harris, resulting in cleaner shot opportunities, higher efficiency, and more impact in a reduced on-ball role.
Providing a steady hand in point-of-attack defense, this savvy vet has proven over a long period of time to still be able to contribute to a starting lineup as a reliable two-way team-first 3&D role player doing the little things with little credit, making the right plays to help his team succeed.
Stealth Mode Suggs
A pick six a day keeps the defense at bay.
Lurking in the shadows before biting like a snake, Suggs surprises the opposition by beating the ball to the point the pass is supposed to arrive at.
A simple stagger screen gone wrong.
Jalen flies up from behind the action, snatches the ball before his man even sees it, going up for a layup on the other end before the defense knows what hit ‘em.
They underestimate his sneakiness.
Jalen Suggs is already one of the more versatile defensive guards in the league. Bringing lockdown effort and quick feet at point of attack, with strength on the block to lose no ground to bigs in the post, Suggs can already guard 1-4 at the highest level.
Stealth Mode Suggs, engaged.
A blur in transition, Jalen Suggs can take off like a rocket or launch the ball up the court quickly. The vision of a former quarterback has it’s perks on the open floor.
Jalen’s developed into a reliable scoring option in plays where he runs off screens.
Slowing down in the halfcourt, Suggs’ decision-making, rim-finishing, and quick-trigger jumper powers are growing stronger, averaging 1.1 PPP on Handoffs , 1.0 PPP Off Screens, and 0.9 PPP in P&R.
Never forget this four-threes first quarter in Brooklyn in 2021:
One of best early season moments: a game-winning spinning stepback three for Jalen Suggs in Chicago.
Jalen Suggs set a Career-High 26 PTS with clutch steals and pull-up jumper against the Splash Bros
Wendell The Rock
Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs held one of Orlando’s better net ratings, which adds up due to their execution off screens, reliable pindown handoff Chicago set, and the hard-earned chemistry of Wagner-Carter P&R Connections.
A hustling big who anchors both ends of the floor with high two-way feel for the game, sets strong well-timed screens, and hits C&S threes, Carter remains the rock of these lineups. Wendell brings all-around efficiency in energy plays, rolling and popping in pick-and-roll, spotting up from deep and posting up mismatches.
Wendell Carter led the team in overall impact this season according to Cerebro Sports (+7.0 C-RAM), slightly outpacing Franz and Paolo. (+6.7 C-RAM)
In 966 minutes with the starting frontcourt of Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner on the court together, the Orlando Magic have a +2.33 Net Rating.
Add Markelle Fultz to that mix of Wendell, Paolo, and Franz on the floor, and Orlando has a positive +1.76 Net Rating in 681 minutes.
Visualizing Orlando Magic players still on the roster with the most two-way impact as defenders and pure scorers in the 2022-23 season, via Cerebro Sports data:
New Bitazde Business
A late-season addition after being waived by Indiana, Goga Bitadze brought good energy, floor-spacing, and sound rim-rolls into post-up mismatches in his short stint in Orlando.
In 114 Minutes with Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Goga Bitadze on the floor, the Orlando Magic posted a +15.63 Net Rating. Usually joined by another starter, this unit impressed against second units once Goga entered the fold.
That 3-man chemistry will be handy going forward, with each player fighting for a starting spot, even if they’re comfortable filling their rotation role. A reliable bench unit could present itself with each player capable of filling in for a starter on the fly.
Visualizing 3-Man Lineup Combos for the Orlando Magic by Net Rating
(via NBA Stats; min. 100 MP)
The Boller Coaster
Few things excite Magic fans like a runaway Bol flying off the tracks.
When Bol Bol is on the loose, anything can happen.
Bol’s fast breaks were like psychedelic fever dreams, as the crowd collectively holds their breath to see if magic could happen one more time.
Sometimes Bol would glide coast-to-coast into a euro-step one-handed jam; other times, he’d fake a handoff and drive right into a post-up mismatch shoulder-faking turnaround baseline fadeaway.
To fans, The Good flashes highlights that resemble one of the greatest rim-protecting and tough shot-making prospects the basketball world has ever seen in Victor Wembanyama. To critics, The Bad reveals black hole level defensive worries on the perimeter, weakness guarding stronger bigs in the post, and a turnover-prone wildcard whose inconsistent decision-making may not be worth the excitement.
A free-roaming Bol is the best Bol, where a sturdy defensive frontcourt around him allows him to do what he does best as a help-side shot-blocking rim-protector with incredibly rare handle, touch, and skills for his height. Bol punishes mismatches in the post with tough shot-making, has a wet jumper from deep, and has the handles to create his own shot on a whim.
Concerns exist for any big being asked to switch on the perimeter, but the modern game demands versatility. Leading the league in 3PT BLKs when smaller guards dared to shoot over the switch, and using his length to effectively stop quicker wings in their tracks, Bol showed some improvement guarding on the wing this season.
Playing through mistakes hopefully creates lessons learned to develop decision-making, while being miscast in an overtasked role could dampen impact.
The Future
Role players like Mo Wagner, Chuma Okeke, and Caleb Houstan have shown reason for encouragement. Mo earns minutes with energy and closeout-attacking chemistry. Though he’s been squeezed out of the rotation due to the logjam of talent in the frontcourt, Chuma has flashed defensive wing versatility, shooting range, and connector ball-skills when available. Houstan has shown on more than one occasion he can be a legit C&S 3PT threat with active hands as a lengthy wing defender.
The defense is full of long, strong, smart, and mostly switchable defenders, who take pride in hustling, rotating, protecting.
Jonathan Isaac’s return lingers as a wide-ranging what-if. One of the most impactful, versatile defenders in the game when healthy, J.I. just can’t seem to stay on the court.
That won’t stop Magic fans from imagining how dynamic a Franz-Paolo-Isaac frontcourt could be in today’s spread NBA, or pondering a possible playoff matchup between Orlando’s young core of Suggs-Franz-Paolo-Isaac-Wendell-Fultz-Cole to Boston’s rotation of Smart-Brown-Tatum-RobWill-Horford-White-Brogdon, let alone daydreaming of what that might look like with another 1-2 lottery picks on the way.
Paolo even matches up well with fellow Duke star Jayson Tatum, showing he can contest Tatum’s jumper without fouling, contain him on drives, and make him work harder than he’d like for points, which is all one can be asked to do defending a superstar scorer like Tatum. Banchero holding his own on both ends with star big wings is huge for future playoff success.
With a 37% chance at a Top-4 pick, a 9% chance at winning the Wemby lottery outright, and over 91% odds of Chicago’s 11th-14th pick conveying, Orlando could very easily end up with another top talent in the draft, if not two.
Imagine this roster adding another explosive guard like Scoot Henderson, Amen or Ausar Thompson into the mix, or a floor-stretching tough shot-maker on the wing like Jett Howard or Gradey Dick.
Countless reasons exist for Magic fans to have hope.
The product on the floor is fun to watch every night.
The drives and kicks are strong; the pace of play is fast; the style of play is furious.
The young talent coming together, meshing, molding into one cohesive unit.
In the present, everyone in the gym is entertained.
For the future, fans are overloaded with optimism.
Win or lose, Mosley Magic teams don’t quit.
Ring the bell.
Data via PBP Stats, Cerebro Sports, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Statmuse
Words and Visualizations from @ BeyondTheRK on Twitter, YouTube, Substack
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