The 7-1 start in the Jimmy era has certainly provided some answers. The team’s energy has returned, and vibes are undoubtedly restored. The initial numbers are positive, as the vibe shift translates to on-court results. Most notable to me is the discovery of a new lineup that has resuscitated their efficacy on both ends of the floor and could be a major tool come playoff time. That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

First, some stats for this lineup. It’s far and away the preferred Jimmy Butler unit since the deadline with more than twice as many possessions as the next lineup, and it is efficient. So far, the unit boasts a 114.7 offensive rating (57th percentile) and a 100.8 defensive rating (99th percentile), good for a +14 net rating that is 96th percentile amongst all five-man units per Cleaning the Glass (go subscribe to their service, by the way!). This is accomplished through their elite turnover and free-throw gaps, uncommon for this iteration of the Warriors.

This five-man unit boasts a 10.1% turnover rate (99th percentile) while turning over their opponents 19.4% of the time, a 94th percentile mark. The free throw gap is just as preposterous with a 22.3% free throw rate (90th percentile) and only allowing a 9.8% mark on defense, tops in the league. They also manage comparable eFG% numbers (50.8% to 53%) and offensive rebound rates (29% to 27%). Winning three of the four factors, and dominating two of them, is an excellent formula for success.

Now, more important stats: the halfcourt. Their 107.1 offensive rating in the halfcourt is a 95th percentile mark while generating a 94th percentile mark of transition looks. These Dubs are also holding their opponents to an 87.5 rating in the halfcourt as well. Those are numbers you can build on in the playoffs.

Alright, those were a lot of numbers. Unless you are completely new to my work you’ve probably guessed what comes next: copious amounts of film. I watched all 319 plays with these five players on the floor so we could learn what led to this early success and discern what is sustainable versus what can be exploited.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Steph makes a Warriors lineup entirely possible. Unsurprisingly, even at 36 years old, he is the bellwether of the Dubs. So for the sake of this article, I’ll work in a rough descending order of who dictates the success of this lineup. We’ll start with none other than Wardell himself.

Steph

The first 50 games of the season felt like watching a prolonged crucifixion on offense. Steph was sent out there every night to die for the sins of the organization, doomed to give his life just to eke out a passable team offense. With Jimmy Butler on the floor, that burden has been eased considerably, and the results show. He’s gotten his energy back and is attacking switches and isolations with renewed vigor.

Reducing the amount of players you can help off has given Steph and Draymond newfound space to work their two-man game. When the other three are a clear threat to score, they might be frozen on the right alignments and allow a 2v2 to unfold.

Still, Curry is going to see his fair share of double teams. The four-man unit around him has handled these chances well. A mix of good decision-making and various scoring tools has led to some great looks.

He’s the worst defender on the floor in this lineup. However, he can still funnel well, a tactic this lineup will utilize even more than normal Warriors lineups. The problem is that the 5-man unit is lacking in size before you even get to Curry, who is a couple of inches shorter than his compatriots. That problem shows up more in help defense and rebounding than at the point of attack.

All things have balance. Steph does more for the other four to get them good looks; it’s only appropriate that they have his back on the uglier end of the floor.

Jimmy

The Jimmy Butler acquisition opened up one of the deadliest actions this team can run. Split actions are common with many combinations of perimeter players and bigs, and Steph/Jimmy split cuts were expected to be a source of excitement. So far, the results have been exceptional for Jimmy, allowing him to get into the paint freely by using Steph’s gravity.

The reverse side of that is Jimmy’s driving opening up looks for everyone else. Driving and kicking or finding cutters is a great way to jumpstart the motion offense, and he seems to get it immediately.

This lineup has also buoyed the best parts of Jimmy’s game: driving and posting up. If you take away the ability to help early on his drives or properly double-team his post-ups, he will have clean looks in the paint all night and plenty of trips to the free throw line.

It strikes a good balance so far that takes advantage of Jimmy’s offensive instincts, size, and floor mapping. Accentuating his best scoring methods without over-exerting him bodes well for this team. It also enables him to make a major impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Jimmy’s skill as a rotator and rebounder with his size and instincts is impressive. He can make plays all over the floor while trusting the rotations behind him and the funneling skills in front of him. There have been moments where he feels hesitant at times, but he’s learning to get in the flow with 4 guys who have been playing together for a season and a half. It’ll come in time. For now, I’ll settle for some strong double teams and boards while he learns to play off the following defensive force.

Draymond

Whew. Nobody has been more invigorated by the Butler acquisition than Draymond Green.

We saw it early on how he’s been thriving again on offense working a two-man game with Steph and making plays when he’s double-teamed. It feels like the Dray of old. Sprinkle in some open threes and transition looks and suddenly he’s becoming a productive offensive player again.

The real standout here is how his defense has been transformed in this lineup. The trust he has in his rotations behind him and the technically sound containment in front of him looses him like the Tasmanian Devil on opponents. Here’s just a snatch of his elite rotation and help defense with this group:

No real change in his game to be noted in this lineup. It just feels like the Dubs are turning a giant dial that says “Draymond Green” to the max and looking at the audience for approval.

Podz

Now is when things get interesting. The star trio coalescing and playing well is a pleasant development but not necessarily a surprising one. A guy who’s been struggling all year turning into a high-level starter seemingly overnight is eye-opening. What has impressed me the most is how Podz has begun to capitalize on his defensive potential with this unit, making a huge impact with his funneling skills first and foremost.

Funneling your man out of the middle and into the help of Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody is a great formula to stay in the lineup defensively. Some outright stops or trail blocks will be welcome. He’s made an impact with his double teams too, blowing up actions left and right while maintaining good hands off the ball to generate steals. But the most important thing he brings to this lineup is the rebounding prowess from the guard spot.

Draymond, Moses, and Jimmy will throw around some hard boxouts, enabling Podz and Steph to come in and clean up the glass. They’re rebounding very well as a unit (more on this later) and Podz is a key cog in that equation. His size and nose for the ball have always produced strong rebounding numbers across several levels of basketball, and it’s much needed to make this unit work. If you want to read more about Podz’s talents as a rebounder, I wrote about it last year.

Offensively, he’s doing an excellent job at filling gaps. He’s the third most versatile scorer in this lineup behind Steph and Jimmy but has a lessened burden to contribute. That gives him the range to focus on his defense while finding ways to contribute as a shooter, closeout attacker, cutter, screener, and transition weapon.

That last part is the most important to me: transition. This lineup has managed to create a 98th percentile transition offense frequency, yet their 1.00 PPP mark in the open floor is abhorrent, to say the least. They desperately need someone to trigger good looks for others and find spots to pick for their shot. Podz’s passing and finishing talents mixed with youthful energy and his halfcourt defensive positions bode well for transition success.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Podz in these lineups going forward. The quality of his play might be the most important tipping point given his past inconsistencies and specific skillset. Here’s hoping he continues to thrive with these four.

Moses

It speaks a lot to the talent and cohesion of this lineup that Moses is arguably the fifth starter here, yet remains very impactful. The Dubs are now up to 11-0 this year when Moses starts a game and 21-27 otherwise. That’s not just happenstance.

Within this lineup, Moses is the most accomplished perimeter defender. His length and footwork combo, with some solid funneling instincts, makes him outstanding against most matchups. Podz and Steph can funnel well but are unlikely to stop a drive outright. Moody can do that or make a drive so dire that the driver is extremely vulnerable to help.

His size also leads to different usages when off the ball. He’s more than capable as a low man rotating or boxing out for rebounds and crashes well after shots go up. The athleticism makes him a defensive threat in transition as well, a large reason why this lineup has successfully closed down transition chances at a high rate.

I’ve especially liked seeing his synergy with the help in these lineups; defending in tandem with Draymond or Jimmy has produced wonderful results.

When you are taking on tough assignments, 75% of your floormates being experienced veterans helps a lot with your trust and confidence. This lineup unlocks a level of defensive intensity he has not discovered before.

On the offensive end of the floor, he holds similar responsibilities to Podziemski with slightly less handling. Shoot when open, crash the glass, screen, cut, and get to work in transition. Per usual he’s done a great job at all aspects of his role.

Moody has always been great at playing within himself offensively. As the 4th/5th scoring option in this lineup, he won’t take chances away from others by forcing things and capitalizes well on the chances given to him. If he can mix in some quality drives and glass crashes, he can be more than a 3-and-D player, which is all they need him to be in the first place.

Team Play and Strategy

As previously mentioned, funneling is a fundamental Warriors tactic. Double teams and icing the pick-and-roll play into that equation as well. They’re comfortable in rotation as a defense so forcing the issue is a benefit. It’s led to some wonderful moments of team defensive play in the halfcourt.

The team transition scoring has been tough, but transition chances are a goal with their 94th percentile transition frequency. The poor results have largely come from hesitancy as this less-than-speedy lineup is not pushing things hard. Yet there have been some moments of great team play in transition that I’ve enjoyed greatly.

What’s more absurd is that despite the lowly offensive rating in transition, this lineup manages to boast a +15.8 net rating in transition so far due to a wild 84.2 DRTG in the open court. There have been moments of brilliance, largely by Draymond Green. However, this looks like a bubble ready to pop. They’re allowing a high frequency of transition looks off live rebounds and have been burned by simply being too tired, not athletic enough, or not attentive enough.

This is certainly a playoff-intensity sort of lineup, and the concern is lessened come April but not gone entirely. They’ll need to continue limiting turnovers and picking offensive rebound opportunities well to limit the transition chances. Draymond can paper over a lot defensively in the open floor but he cannot do everything. Finding a way to keep chances low and relatively covered will be paramount for their success.

A last strategy point that may prove a weakness is the size. As previously mentioned, they have nobody taller than 6’7″ in this lineup, and it brings a host of weaknesses. They’ve been susceptible to offensive rebounds and post-up chances by the league’s taller players.

They need to be crisp with their double teams and help to deter these bigs on the block and rebound well as a team to maintain some control. They can control the floor horizontally with their ability to fly around and pack the paint, but you can only control so much vertically. The tallest trees soak up the most sun at the end of the day. Luckily, there have been lots of great team rebounding moments with this lineup:

On the whole, this lineup is extremely good despite these flaws and has ways to control these flaws. There’s a lot of season left to play but I’m keeping my eye on this grouping. Last night’s game against Orlando was a wake-up call of sorts, and the first time this lineup hasn’t closed a close game since the trade deadline. When teams throw two bigs at them and begin controlling the paint, countermeasures have to be deployed. Will it be the same when they come up against Oklahoma City’s twin towers, or Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

Flaws will be managed in the long run. They may have unlocked a lineup that could carry them up the Western Conference standings and put the fear of God into a team in round one. From there, who knows how high it could take them?

The post Warriors Unlock New Deadly Lineup? appeared first on Swish Theory.

For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

That being said, not much of this tank’s return has shown. Shaedon Sharpe was the first major draft pick of this new era, and though he’s flashed potential, his injury concerns and limitations bring up questions. Scoot Henderson was supposed to be the franchise’s cornerstone but faces an uphill battle to be a productive player in the league, let alone live up to his potential. Donovan Clingan was a great prospect but hardly projected to be a centerpiece.

In the spirit of piling on, the non-draft picks haven’t panned out either. Anfernee Simons is at least staying healthy but has regressed somewhat. Jerami Grant, the last holdout of the Dame era besides Simons and Sharpe, has failed to generate enough trade interest to be moved. The same can be said for DeAndre Ayton. Grant is 30, Ayton is 26, and Simons is 25. Despite that, it’s hard to feel good about any of them as players who can be around for a future successful iteration of the Blazers.

It’s not all dire. The Deni Avdija acquisition was a shrewd move that should pan out in the long run. Robert Williams III has managed to recapture some of his value and could fetch them something decent in a trade. But what excites me most about Portland’s rebuild is that the third player they acquired in the 2023 draft has been the best of the trio.

Enter Toumani Camara.

More than used to being an afterthought in his basketball career, Camara was a footnote in the gargantuan Damian Lillard-Jrue Holiday-Ayton-Jusuf Nurkic deal. Portland decision-makers coveted the three first-round picks and the cadre of tradeable veterans they got from the teardown, not the four-year college player taken with the 52nd overall pick. Yet he may be the best thing they got out of the deal.

Let me show you why.

Offensive Overview

For those of you following this series, it’s hardly surprising I have found yet another defense-first wing searching for an offensive role. Peyton Watson, Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Bilal Coulibaly, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have all featured thus far. Yet all of them save Watson had some sort of established offensive identity. Watson has yet to find any. So I wanted to focus on a player finding an interesting way of contributing offensively. It starts with the most boring off-ball skill.

Shooting

Camara is primarily stationed as a corner shooter in Portland’s base offense, taking nearly half of his perimeter looks from there. Their general lack of shooting as a team forces him to lift above the break more often but that’s been fine up to a certain point. Camara is hitting 36% of his above-the-break looks, a hair above his 34% mark from the corners, and looks confident.

Portland has real spacing issues to work out as a team and I don’t see Camara as the long-term spacing outlet. But for his role as a big wing playing off primary creators, he’s doing a fine job. The increase in three-point volume from last year to this year has been promising and I hope it continues as coach Chauncey Billups grooms him for a role as a fifth offensive option in the long run.

Finishing Questions

Camara may be passable from the perimeter, but it is considerably more problematic in the restricted area. His 59% mark at the rim is a 30th percentile mark for wings, and the 32% mark in the short midrange is a tough 27th percentile mark. It’s not for a lack of trying on his part. Camara generally resides in the upper quartile of wings on rim FGA percentage in addition to roughly half of his rim attempts being self-created. Typically, his finishes on the drive look like this:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t show off some of the good. Sometimes it looks very good and makes you excited.

Mostly what we have here isn’t a confidence problem; Camara isn’t afraid to go at anyone, finish with either hand, or try audacious looks. What we mostly have here is a decision-making problem. Sometimes it’s not about how you finish, but when you choose to. This shows up more when we look at his playmaking off the drive. Again, some of it does look good!

But the bad patterns are there in spades. Running right into charges, jumping in the air without a plan, being early or late to passing windows, and failing to recognize help points. There’s a reason his turnover percentage is around 15% for the second straight year, despite single-digit assist rates and a usage rate in the low teens.

What’s important to me is that despite the generally poor results, Portland’s coaching staff is perfectly fine letting him work the kinks out. That confidence seems to manifest in Camara’s brazen manner on the drive. The shooting has potential and Billups is more than willing to see if Toumani can make other contributions to the offense by putting the ball on the deck. Only time will tell if loosening the reins can bear fruit.

It’s not the only way Portland has endeavored to find out how Camara can play a role.

Leveraging Athleticism Off-Ball

At a solid 6’8″ with 220 pounds of muscle, Toumani’s height and size benefit him as a shooter and driver. Portland has begun to ask, why not test him out as a screener?

For a guy with decision-making issues, screener usage has allowed him to narrow the tree of decisions. Once he sets a good screen and rolls, the choices are fairly simple: find the finishing angle or kick out to shooters and cutters. Camara has looked much better with this narrower set of decisions.

The PPP on his roll man possessions has jumped from 0.88 last year to 1.125 this year, a noticeable jump that reflects the tape: Camara is learning to make better choices. The good mix of passes from the roll is encouraging to boot. As the league spreads out and trends to diverse sizes and skills, a big wing that can effectively screen and roll is a great tool.

Camara also presents some good cutting instincts, and though the iffy finishing remains an issue when playing below the rim, he’s more than capable of finishing above the rim spectacularly.

As a guy taking on tons of primary defensive assignments, it’s admirable that Camara gets out in transition with good frequency. Again the finishing issues persist unless he can get vertical, but some of the results have been enjoyable.

For the second year running, Camara is a 90th percentile or better offensive rebounder for a wing. Not only does he have the size and vertical athleticism, but Toumani also hustles hard for putbacks and tip-outs. Despite his struggles finishing on the drive, he often shows special hand-eye coordination with his tip-ins. Throw in good instincts on when to put the ball back up and when to kick it back out and you have one of the premier second-chance creators and finishers from the perimeter in the whole league.

The shooting is passable, the screening and cutting are solid, and the offensive rebounding is outstanding. Overall, this adds up to a pretty useful off-ball player in the proper context. Hopefully, time will allow Portland to add more offensive creators and find better synergy or player fits over the next few years to place Camara in a better offensive setting to leverage his talents. In the meantime, they might as well let him take threes, set screens, and endure some rough drives to figure out how much untapped offensive potential resides within Toumani.

Defensive Stud

Much like Bilal Coulibaly in Washington, Camara is the young defensive perimeter bludgeon a tanking team uses to bother their opponent’s top option. The versatility on display from Toumani is rather unique, even amongst the best defenders in the league. Since the beginning of last year when I began to studiously watch his tape, I jotted down a rough list of players I’ve seen him take on as primary assignments for at least chunks of a game, if not a whole game.

That’s a pretty good visual of what it looks like to be thrown in the fire. What’s crazy is that he has looked more than capable of handling it. Enjoy 100+ games’ worth of Toumani making life hard on, or completely shutting down, his massive range of assignments on an island.

His +1.2 D-EPM mark from last season numbered amongst the elite, especially impressive given that EPM factors in context, so the weight of playing on a 21-win team only makes it more noteworthy. He’s suffered slightly in his numbers as Portland’s defense somehow gets worse. Still, we are watching one of the better perimeter defenders in the league here, and few can get around this guy. There’s only one hole in the perimeter game I keep my eye on: speed.

Some handlers can turn on the jets and give Toumani issues. Given his prowess and technical attention to detail, a little tightening up of the footwork preparedness would put him in trail block positions more often, or create outright stops. It’s well within his skillset to close this gap with reps.

Rotation Questions

It’s not uncommon for young players to be far more attentive and effective on the ball than off it. But with so much of the game happening away from the ballhandler, those lapses in focus and technique will burn you now more than ever. Someone as effective on the ball as Toumani will be avoided as his reputation builds, so attacking him off the ball becomes necessary. Camara has failed to bring that same intensity to his off-ball game.

He’s missing rotations, losing cutters, offering weak help, and moving at inopportune times. All things that can kill a defense in rotation, especially given the talent Camara often finds himself covering.

Darrelle Revis was the best at what he did because he was in your jersey every play until the ball hit the turf. Wise quarterbacks looked away from him early, but the best of the best were testing his attention all game long and he hardly ever lapsed. Toumani will be forced to step up his attention in the coming years. Luckily, there has been an uptick in the current season.

His block and steal rates have remained steady as he continues to be a strong event creator on and off the ball, and his ability to switch has played a major role in the elite steal rates. Setting a screen good enough to take him off the ball puts his long arms in passing lanes of all kinds, something he relishes.

Don’t get me wrong, Toumani being a lockdown perimeter option is the most important developmental goal. Eventually, those players will want to iso or call for a ball screen and Toumani will be there. But in the times he’s off the ball, waiting for those opportunities, he will need to ensure he doesn’t get burned with cuts, off-ball screens, and long closeouts. Tightening up his rotational defense would truly make him the whole package on the ugly end of the floor, and a potential All-Defense candidate in coming years.

Looking Forward

The usage patterns throughout the season will be interesting to monitor offensively, especially if Portland undergoes further selling at the deadline to clear out minutes and touches. I hope to see the shooting numbers stay solid and further development of his decision-making on the drive, possibly coming from his chances as a roll man. Any sort of improvement as a threat around the basket would be a welcome sight.

Defensively, I’ll be watching how he handles speedy guards to see if his few gaps can be closed on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing more of his chops against the toughest assignments. The signs in rotational and off-ball defense have been good, but I want more consistency from an already outstanding defender. He’s got the potential to be a world-wrecker from the wing spot. The last time I wrote about a young wing needing to strive beyond excellence, I got to watch Dyson Daniels deliver on his promise in Atlanta and put together what will surely be an All-Defensive nod. I see that same potential in Camara.

Chin up, Portland fans. Rebuild is about finding one guy at a time, and Toumani is very much a guy to bank on for years to come. Someone who makes their teammates look good as Camara does will be a welcome presence for whoever can lead Portland into the future.

The post Finding a Role: Toumani Camara appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

If your answer is “Nothing, Charlie. What the hell are you talking about?” congratulations—you know as much as I did when I wrote this. Nothobranchius furzeri, known as the turquoise killifish (fire name alert), is a small fish native only to Zimbabwe and Mozambique. It’s known for two distinct reasons.

One, this killifish has the shortest lifecycle of any vertebrate kept in captivity and is a major source of studies regarding lifecycles amongst vertebrates. Thank you, Wikipedia. Two, nothobranchius furzeri reaches maturity faster than any known vertebrate on Earth. It takes each one only 14 days from hatching to become a fully mature killifish. I think you can see where this is going.

Bilal Coulibaly is on a growth trajectory that would make the turquoise killifish raise its eyebrows, if it had any. A veritable ball of French clay as a draft prospect, Coulibaly has (in my mind) solidified himself as the premier prospect in the Washington Wizards system and should compete for the Most Improved Player award. That is nothing short of an astounding leap from his rookie year. He’s gone from a questionable offensive talent with lots of defensive potential to a legitimate All-Defense candidate in the near future with a budding offensive game, nearly doubling his scoring output from his rookie year with a massive jump in efficiency.

How did he do it? This is the part where we find out.

Defensive Overview

If you try sifting through defensive stats to find the goods on Bilal, it’s tough sledding. This Wizards team is 30th in defensive rating after a second-to-last finish this past year and it shows on the tape. Shockingly, 3 rookies and Jordan Poole starting is a bad defensive equation. And when you’re watching a car careen off the side of the road, you’re probably not noticing the nice rims it has. The level to which Coulibaly is overtasked defensively is hard to overstate.

Yet the 20-year-old has shown a lot, and it’s starting to become evident statistically. He’s one of the premier shot-blocking forwards in the league already and continues to grow as a defensive event-creator. The rebounding numbers should be a lot better (more on that later) but second-year players rarely make this kind of impact so early. Let’s dig into how he does it.

On-Ball Defense

One thing I have appreciated about Washington’s development plan is the willingness to throw Coulibaly to the wolves defensively. His rookie year, the coaching staff asked him to take on all kinds of #1 options. That is no different this year as the 20-year-old continues to deal with the best of the best on a nightly basis.

Steph Curry. Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown. Trae Young. Donovan Mitchell. In only 10 games he’s been thrown at MVPs and All-NBA talents of varying heights and styles, and acquitted himself well.

If you come at him on an island or in the post, it’s likely to be a problem for you.

Screen navigation has been an issue at some times, something I will be keeping an eye on for future check-ins on Bilal. Even if it’s not perfect, his physical tools and commitment to stick to the play have produced some wonderful recoveries and rear-view contests.

Switching and communication are another thing I’ll be monitoring closely. It’s no surprise that the worst defense in the league struggles to communicate on the whole. Still, Bilal will have to be better given the kind of defensive personnel coach Brian Keefe has at his disposal.

Rookie year Bilal showed defensive promise, and sophomore Bilal is delivering on the promise. The blend of defensive technique and awareness flashes brightly considering his age, and the physical tools speak for themselves. 6’8″ tall and with a 7’3″ wingspan, there is no limit to how high he can climb as a perimeter defender.

Off-Ball/Rotational Defense

With his primary responsibilities coming against the top options, Coulibaly’s responsibilities off the ball start with ball denial. Keep the danger man away from the danger areas. By and large he’s solid at it, and has outright been ludicrous at ball denial in flashes:

There are plenty of lapses and moments of unawareness, however. I want to see those tighten up as the season progresses.

It sounds harsh to expect the 20-year-old to be on the balls of his feet and aware for every second of every game, but Bilal has changed the equation of his expectations in my eyes. I see a great defender blooming so I expect to see greatness. Some of that has certainly showed when given a chance to protect the rim:

If he’s showing these kinds of technical skills, staying vertical and letting his size do the talking, that is promising for his future as a help defender. That fake charge into the block on a veteran wing? Now we’re really cooking.

Gap Filling

Beyond some rotation responsibilities and the ball denial, Coulibaly isn’t relied on as a rebounder in these Washington lineups. Their size dictates that responsibility as well. As you can see with Coulibaly’s top ten lineups this season, he’s more likely to be found playing the 2 guard than the 4:

Still, for a wing, his rebounding numbers could look better considering his prolific wingspan and leaping ability. Even with his on-ball tasks I think Coulibaly could contribute more on the glass. The Wizards are 29th in rebounding rate despite the presence of known board inhaler Jonas Valanciunas, and somebody else has got to help.

These areas to clean up are important but do not come close to overshadowing the on-ball prowess Coulibaly has put on display. The rotational defense flashes put him even further in the green as a defensive presence. This kind of showing from a 20-year-old has me thinking about future All-Defensive teams to come and I can’t wait to see more.

Offense Overview

Okay, so Charlie is writing about another young and exciting defensive wing, right? Surely this offense is going to be a “work in progress.”

Yes, and no. A lot of wings I have written about – Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Peyton Watson – had only begun to lay foundations offensively. One, maybe two reliable skills, and lots of question marks. I would have said the same of Bilal last year; foundations were being laid.

Now he’s truly building. I found myself shocked at the array of skills the Frenchman is showing so far this year, and it’s not just showing on the tape. From 8.4 PPG on 50/35/70 splits, he’s leapt to 15.3 PPG on 65/38/77 splits in this young season. There has been a jump in assists too despite a meager usage spike (13.7% to 16.3%). So how has this increase in production happened?

The simple and true answer is Bilal has just improved at everything.

On-Ball Creation

Much like his defensive development, Washington seems comfortable with letting Bilal get uncomfortable. He’s given free reign by Brian Keefe to create on the ball; his self-creation possessions have jumped from 18% of his offense last year to 35% this year. And somehow he’s increased the efficiency, going from 31% on PNR/handoff/isolation shots to 51% to start this year. The usage shift is deliberate and should continue, but can Coulibaly maintain this efficiency?

The isolation drives have been excellent. He can beat bigger players with speed, use his floater and midrange over guards, and the finishing and footwork have popped.

There are iffy moments, to be sure. He struggles with decision-making out of structure and how to manipulate help when it’s sent. This much help on his drives is new to Bilal and adjustment will include some rough patches.

There are reasons why Bilal’s rim finishing has seen drastic increases, and the willingness to drive on anyone is a huge factor. So far, Coulibaly is 28/31 at the rim this season, up from a 62% mark last year. The drives within the structure of pick-and-roll and handoffs have played a role as well.

Not only is Coulibaly able to beat people with straight-line speed and strength, but he’s also starting to show off a nice set of mixed-speed moves. His touch on floaters opens up plenty of tough looks and it’s hard not to foul someone that big who can throw the right fake or slow down when you least expect it.

His short midrange finishing (between 4 and 14 feet) has doubled from 25% to 50% this season. The overall bump in midrange confidence and efficiency is a very welcome sign for someone trying to open up his downhill looks.

I’ve also enjoyed some of the reads he can make on these handoff and ball screen looks. There’s reason to think the uptick in his assist percentage is a development of skill rather than luck.

He can break the defense down at the rim, get into his floater, and make enough of the right passes to keep defenses on their toes. Another way he does this is with the pull-up midrange counters.

There have been some bad drives as well. Can’t throw a guy in the fire and be surprised when he gets hot sometimes.

Based on the jump in his feel over the past year, I expect him to smooth out the decision-making errors in time. Especially given how everything has developed so rapidly for Coulibaly despite only minor changes in team personnel and competitive circumstances.

I’m stoked to see what he can produce over the rest of the season as he grows accustomed to the two rookies, Kyshawn George and Alexandre Sarr, plus a new roll and cut big in JV. And it’s not the only area of offense where he’s grown.

Off-Ball Usage

As a stationary shooter when off the ball, Coulibaly has one main job: fire when open. He shows little hesitancy to take the right looks, especially when stationed in the corners, where he’s shot well over 40% for his career.

The above-the-break looks have been iffy, coming in at 26% and 29% over the last two years, respectively. It can look fluid at times but you can tell he doesn’t quite trust it yet based on the release speed.

That difference in release speed makes it easier to close out and discourage, even earning him blocks on what should be open looks.

I do enjoy the promise Bilal shows when attacking closeouts. The combination of the floater and finishing skill at the rim make him deadly once he’s past the defender against a rotating defense. If the shot is confident and accurate enough, he will be able to create more opportunities like these with consistency:

His status off the ball last year produced some good cuts off the ball, and that hasn’t changed this season. He’s got the awareness to pick his spots and the explosive finishing to capitalize on those chances.

Brian Keefe has even thrown in some experimentation with Coulibaly as a handoff hub, screener, and designed off-ball looks. Though limited in volume, the results look fun so far and I hope for more to come.

And hey, when you’re as tall and long as Bilal, you will find yourself gobbling up offensive rebounds with good positioning and effort.

It’s exciting to see Coulibaly threaten the defense more without the ball in his hands. An uptick in shooting numbers can open up more opportunities and more designed sets. Based on what I’ve seen with his development, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him dabbling in some movement three looks before the year is up. He’s smashing expectations faster than we can set them, so why not?

Transition Offense

As an excellent run-and-jump athlete, it’s no surprise that Coulibaly thrives in transition. His defensive role guarding perimeter players leaves him tons of chances for leakouts and rim runs, with the odd grab-and-go mixed in just through sheer speed with the ball. A healthy mix of hard fouls and exciting finishes generates him plenty of points in the open floor.

Filling those lanes also gives him plenty of chances to clean up for others on the break. Plenty of opportunities have been there; Washington may have a middle-of-the-pack transition frequency as a team, but their 49.6% field goal percentage in the open floor is one of the worst marks in the league.

Though the decision making in transition could improve a bit, Bilal has flashed some fun passes in transition with the kind of ball placement that gets you excited.

The opportunities in the open floor will always be there for Bilal, and the finishing/athleticism combo already creates a high transition floor. Once the decision-making is ironed out, he could be a top-tier weapon in the open floor. He just needs a defense and a set of playmakers capable of maximizing his tools.

Wrap-Up

If you’re going to break a rule you set for yourself, I suppose it’s best to break it quickly. Get the self-criticism out of the way.

In my last Finding a Role article about Tre Mann, I said I’d avoid career projections for players and let the skills, growth, and stats speak for themselves in a way. But I simply cannot help myself when it comes to projecting Bilal Coulibaly’s future.

He made me take a hard look at the prospects of the last three drafts looking to prove their worth on a second contract and think about how I would rank them. Over those three classes, I’d firmly place Coulibaly in 5th. There’s a top tier of proven franchise player talents (Wemby, Chet, Paolo) and right behind them are the proven talents with tons of upside to tap into. Jalen Williams is at the top of that group in my mind, with Coulibaly trailing, shortly followed by Keegan Murray.

That got take-y. But to try to place the potential outcomes for a player, looking closely at comparable prospects is important. And when looking at the under-the-radar star bets in this league, Bilal is at the top for me. He has so much more to show in the coming months as his development continues on the upward trajectory. It takes a real diehard fan (or a weirdo like myself) to endure the masochism that is watching all Wizards games, but Bilal will make them worth watching for years to come.

The post Bilal Coulibaly: A Star is Born appeared first on Swish Theory.

Watson showed himself to be a potent defensive weapon, on and off the ball, and the toolsy 21-year-old proved himself worthy of the defending champs as they sought to replace a departing Bruce Brown. Offensive struggles were there to be sure, to put it mildly; Watson’s -3.4 offensive estimated plus-minus was the worst mark in the league. A year later, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is gone, and Aaron Gordon is sidelined for at least a month with a calf injury. More than ever the Nuggets need Watson to step into his own.

The move into the starting lineup will be an inflection point for how Denver views Watson’s long-term potential. The thrifty Nuggets front office will look closely at how he responds before an extension-eligible offseason. Is Watson proving himself as a potential starting-type piece, or just another defensive wing struggling to find an offensive niche?

We will focus heavily on the offensive skills here to see how Watson can justify his spot on the floor and prove himself as a capable cog in the machine.

Defense Check-In

Guess what – it’s still great!

At the end of the day, this is a development-based series, so I place very little value in “guy who kicks ass at X skill still kicks ass”. If things had changed, I would indicate otherwise, but Watson is again showing why he is one of the most exciting defensive wings in the league.

The underlying stats are very good. Watson’s 2.4% block rate, a 98th percentile mark amongst forwards, is somehow a career-low for the third-year UCLA alum. The steal rate has increased to an 83rd percentile mark as Watson continues to grow as an event creator. Film backs up what has been an impressive season in rotation, making impact plays all over the floor.

I’ll have my eye on some underlying numbers concerning his off-ball defense; the foul rate is once again troublesome and he’s failing to make a consistent impact as a rebounder. But that’s for another time – we are here to focus on Watson trying to find himself offensively.

Offense Check-In

Cutting

The change over to the starting lineup has placed even more emphasis on this facet of Watson’s offensive game. If you play off Nikola Jokic and you can’t shoot (3/16 from deep this year), you’d better be moving around. Peyton has done a pretty solid job at finding open space and can take advantage of being ignored by the defense.

Consistently finding the right space is already an issue, however. I expect this to improve during his stint as a starter while playing with better spacing and off Nikola but it’s iffy at times. What’s more concerning are the bad finishes at the rim once he finds the space.

Watson is finishing only 43% of his looks at the rim this year, a brutal mark especially when factoring in his size and athleticism. He needs to work on staying within himself as a finisher by not trying to do too much. A little slow-down now and then to draw some fouls would be a boost as well.

An interesting wrinkle to his offensive game has developed over the past few games, one that could help alleviate some of his rim-finishing concerns.

Screening

In 80 games last year, Watson acted as a screen-and-roll option on 15 total possessions. Now through 8 games, he’s been the screener on 5 possessions. For #onpace math-doers, that would put him well on pace to triple that number from the previous season.

There’s been some experimentation with Watson as a guard screener for Russell Westbrook and Jamal Murray early in the season.

What interests me more is the 5-4 screening actions with Jokic. Nikola’s two-man game with Aaron Gordon is a crucial part of the offense, and coach Michael Malone is trying to incorporate those elements in Gordon’s absence with Watson as a substitute.

By no means will Watson screen actions become a focal point of the offense anytime soon, but anything and everything should be tried to overcome his woeful half-court offense.

At least there is one area of the offense he can make a real difference in.

Transition

Watson still looks quite good as a transition weapon, and his bounce has led to most transition defenders hacking him hard to prevent finishes – provided they can catch him.

What concerns me about Watson’s development as a transition weapon is his failure to make the right passing reads. Forcing teams to foul is great, but too often he flies into a crowd while missing easy passes.

He’s made some decent reads out there to be sure, and looks pretty good when keeping his head up to find his passing lanes.

The open floor may be the best way for Watson to contribute to this offense in the short term while finding ways to be useful in the halfcourt. But like his halfcourt game, the lack of overall feel shows.

Here’s hoping Watson can use this time in the starting lineup to further develop his offensive game and find ways he can help his teammates by cutting, screening, rebounding, and filling every gap he can. He shows so much promise on the defensive end of the floor, and much like the Nuggets, I am hoping he can show enough offensively over the next month to warrant his place as a rotation fixture.

The post Finding a Role Check-In #1: Peyton Watson appeared first on Swish Theory.

In the bigger sense of the word, transition applies to the whole organization. It’s the first year without Klay and year two of a new GM. It’s the decision period for the rookies on the 2022 title team. New role-player acquisitions have marked a system-wide transition back to defense and shooting endless threes. But the basketball word transition applies in equal measure.

Last year’s Warriors hated that word. You could argue they were the worst transition team in the league—they were in the bottom three in transition frequency and efficiency. Fast-forward to this year and the Warriors have flipped that on its head. It’s small sample size theater here (it’s that time of year), but Golden State generates 23% of its offensive looks from transition, up from 15% last year. That frequency is a top-three mark in this young season while posting a 57th-percentile efficiency.

A few things drive this – the increase in defensive efficiency and turnover creation chief amongst them, along with the new personnel leaning more towards athleticism from the wing and big spots. Yet one man finds himself at the center of this transformation, and his name is Chavano Rainer Hield, better known as Buddy Love.

Running and Gunning

For some statistical context on Hield’s transition importance, Golden State has 132 total transition chances through their first 5 games. Hield leads the team with 23 of those chances, with Jonathan Kuminga close behind at 20 and Steph pacing the team in opportunities per game (16 in 3 games). What stands alongside the usage is efficiency as the other two biggest contributors are struggling, to be generous. Steph and Kuminga are both 5/18 shooting in transition, numbers that will even out eventually.

Hield will regress to the mean eventually, but a 15/22 mark with a scorching 86.4% eFG certainly catches the eye. Shockingly, the NBA’s leader in threes made over the past 5 years (take a shot for every time you hear Fitz say that on broadcast) is killing teams with his perimeter runs in transition.

He’s not new to this. The 31 year old veteran knows his spots, and you can see him in the first clip call out the lanes to open the corner for his shots. With Golden State’s collection of heady veterans and athletic wings/guards who can push the rim in transition, these looks will be open all year long.

I was impressed that Hield’s transition scoring wasn’t limited to hitting threes. He’s damn good at recognizing leakout chances and capable of creative finishes on the break.

Hield’s 1.7 points per possession in transition is 96th percentile amongst all players. That’s right, stand and applaud the small sample size theater.

So, he’s a great play-finisher in transition. What else can he do?

Chance Creation

The defensive infrastructure of Golden State comes into play now. There is no permutation of Warriors lineups you can create where Buddy is anything other than the worst defender on the floor. Staying in front of guys is not his thing. Looking at the rest of the team, that’s not the end of the world. They have more than enough guys to clean up his messes, and this enables Buddy in multiple ways on the defensive end of the floor to accentuate the transition game.

Again, sample size caveat, be warned. Hield’s stock creation has been on a whirlwind pace by his standards. The steal and block rates amongst wings are both 66th percentile on the nose, and the combined 2.6% rate of defensive event creation would be the highest mark of his career. The second-highest mark came last year in Indiana, in a “same same but different” scenario.

Indiana was an offense-first team with a Ponzi scheme of a defense designed to juice transition as much as possible by gambling for stocks. If we miss the chance, oh well, we will still outscore you. If the gamble works, our offensive talent will surely capitalize. Hield is allowed that same freedom to gamble in Golden State to trigger transition, only this time they have the defenders alongside him to back it up. And when it works, it REALLY works.

What’s key here is that Hield is free to take these chances and run out in transition. Hield is likely being stationed on a weak offensive point for the opponent, so if he takes off and the other team gets the ball back it’s less likely to burn them than, say, Andrew Wiggins taking off.

Hield also shows off some decent playmaking in transition. The guy loves to throw a lob and is adept at negotiating the passing lanes and tic-tac-toe game to find the best looks for his teammates.

What I’m looking for here are the sustainable things. Is Hield going to keep up his 86.4% eFG mark all year? Absolutely not. Can he keep up this gambling and chance-taking to boost transition? I think so.

The Warriors have made big changes to their philosophy based on the new personnel. This new emphasis on transition offense is here to stay, and Buddy Love will be at the center of that all year long. Keep an eye on Hield in the corner of your eye during defensive possessions. See how he picks his chances and puts himself in a position to run and gun. It’s going to be a fun year of strength in numbers and joy in buckets out in the open court.

The post Buddy Hield’s Transformative Transition Play appeared first on Swish Theory.

When Peter Gabriel left Genesis in 1975, confusion abounded. A highly successful band’s frontman striking out on his own was a common enough occurrence, but the timing was odd. Ten years later, Gabriel had four No. 1 albums and ended his career as one of British history’s most prolific and successful solo artists.

Okay, I suppose Tre Mann isn’t a 1:1 comparison. He was by no means the frontman of the Oklahoma City Thunder, nor do I project him to have the success of Peter Gabriel. I can’t even call him Phil Collins in good conscience. I guess this makes him Morrissey to the Thunder’s Smiths, but (hopefully) minus the inexplicable racism? This is going off the rails.

Anyways, leaving the Thunder shone a new light on Tre Mann’s ability. The talent was there, but opportunities faded quickly as Oklahoma City acquired more capable role players and kept piling up draft picks. The rookie emergence of Cason Wallace seemed to be the last straw. The Genesis 1975 tour appearance in Cleveland, if you will.

Now Mann finds himself in Charlotte, the polar opposite in regards to team expectations and opportunities to play. After his inclusion in the Gordon Hayward/Davis Bertans deal, Mann arrived in Charlotte to find a 10-41 team that had lost LaMelo Ball for the season. After being a DNP-CD for ~60% of his games in OKC, he was suddenly a starting point guard through the rest of the year. Opportunity presented itself, and Mann seized it.

I want to explore how Mann showed serious offensive juice over the final stretch of the year. Without further ado (read: ham-fisted Britpop references), let’s dig in. Starting with the defense; might as well rip the Band-Aid off.

On-Ball Production

Man. Look.

I had to think long and hard about how I wanted to frame this. It was a godawful team with nothing to play for. The coach was doing multiple press conferences a week that sounded like a cry for help. At times it was tempting to wave my hand and say “Hey, this is terrible, but is it Tre’s fault?”. Like most things, the answer fell somewhere in a gray area.

There are the schematic points to start. Shoutout to X’s and O’s god/unrepentant Seahawks fan Joe Hulbert for sharing his insight on Steve Clifford’s defensive principles, and a video of Clifford himself explaining these tactics. In short, Clifford wants to take away the valuable looks (threes, layups/dunks, free throws) and force players into the midrange. It involves point-of-attack defenders overplaying screen-based actions to force ballhandlers off the 3-point line and into the helpers. Here’s an easy example:

You can see the way Mann is shading Darius Garland on this drive. He’s giving him the angle for his strong hand and discouraging Garland from using a potential Jarrett Allen screen. The goal is to force Garland into an isolation possession with Miles Bridges stepping up to deter the drive and Vasilije Micic sinking to the dunker spot in Bridges’ place. Ideally, this forces two outcomes: a skip to the far corner and Isaac Okoro taking a three, or a midrange attempt.

Unfortunately, Miles Bridges is picking daisies in front of the drive (as he is wont to do) and allows an easy floater for DG. Hardline defensive principles are fine if you have execution. This team had little interest in execution. You can see a lot of possessions where Mann did his job on the intentional overplays and was let down by his helpers.

There are nits to pick with how drastic his angles are at times, often eliminating the opportunity to get himself back in the play. Regardless, his job is to buy into the scheme. When the scheme isn’t working you need to look critically at who is letting the team down. Clifford, yes. The rotational defenders, yes. Mann, not so much.

Referring back to the gray area, there were possessions where the blame almost squarely fell on Mann and not the scheme/surrounding personnel. Getting caught flat-footed, ill-timed unders on screens, failing to recognize switch opportunities, so on and so forth.

Yet there are moments of good. I was surprised to see Mann showing anticipation in blend with his athleticism and size by skinnying over screens at a decent enough pace. If encouraged to do actual screen navigation instead of comically overplaying screens to force a direction, he could do some things.

Mann has flashed some moments of quick hands to force steals. Despite an even wingspan (6’4″) relative to his height, his wide base and quickness make him a solid enough threat to pilfer a hung dribble.

Most importantly in my eyes are the possessions where he shows the right instincts and commitment to deny the easy looks. This is the NBA; most point-of-attack defenders have physical tools and look good when making the right gambles. That doesn’t impress me. Making a series of correct decisions regarding switches, sticking on drives to force tough shots, and contesting perimeter shots after denying drives stand out the most. Mann has flashed all of those things.

These flashes of effort, decision-making and consistency are especially important when you look at the other side of his defense.

Off-Ball “Defending”

There’s no scheme issues to pick on here. When it came to Mann’s on-ball defense, letdowns from his help defenders caused a lot of problems. Mann was often the one causing the problems when not directly guarding the handler.

Overhelping on the glass and allowing open threes. Uninspired and slow closeouts. Wandering off the ball when opponents are driving. Lackadaisical nail help. There’s a lot of rough stuff in here, and I left plenty on the cutting room before.

This isn’t a unique problem. White dudes in mesh trucker hats have problematic political takes, Chicago Bears quarterbacks refuse to throw for 4,000 yards, and young offense-first guards are more engaged on the ball than off it. Life is full of constants.

What frustrates me with Mann more than most is that the flashes of awareness and engagement are there. He can make structured rotations, digging off the perimeter at the right times and especially rotating over to bigs to deny post entry passes.

Even more impressive, Mann makes the unstructured reads. He’s damn good at anticipating the next pass and beating his man to the ball. Surprisingly for a young guard, the good gambles outweighed the bad.

The numbers bear out his growing defensive impact. He posts strong defensive rebounding numbers (90th percentile amongst combo guards per Cleaning the Glass), and though it belies his overcommitment to impact the glass while trading the aforementioned open second-chance threes, it’s still a positive. Mann also posted a 91st percentile steal rate while keeping the fouls to an 80th percentile mark. Catch-alls back up his growth: Mann’s defensive EPM according to dunksandthrees.com has risen from -4.0 to -3.5 to -1.4 this past season, a perfectly acceptable 53rd percentile mark.

Reading between the numbers is important here. Mann can continue to be a positive rebounder if he cleans up his decision making on when to crash and when to stick to his man. Continuing to create steals based on hustle and a healthy mix of gambling on-off the ball will be huge, and works in tandem with his transition prowess (more on that later). A high steal rate and low foul rate indicates cautious yet deadly hands, but he could be a bit more physical and toe the line of blocking fouls a bit more often.

On the whole with Mann’s defense, I am cautiously optimistic. Head coach Charles Lee has championship experience as a top assistant with the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Read: the man has coached Jrue Holiday a lot. He’s seen firsthand for years what makes great point-of-attack defense and impactful guard rotations. When LaMelo Ball plays, Mann gets to work on his defensive craft against bench guards instead of starters, and will see plenty of minutes alongside defensive stud Josh Green. If he can continue his personal development while the context improves from “everything is on fire” to “this feels manageable”, don’t be surprised to see him climb towards above-average defender territory.

We’ve had our appetizer. Now it’s time for the main course.

On-Ball Creation

Let’s start with the simple and move towards the complex, because there are many layers to Mann’s on-ball talent. Drives are a good place to start.

If you put a guard who is anything less than a top-tier point of attack guy on Tre, he’s going to coast right past them. His blend of balance, speed, and agility is difficult for most to deal with.

Maybe you think hey, let’s try some wings out on him. Strength and length should deter him, right? Right??

Couldn’t be more wrong! Tre has unlimited confidence in his ability to create good looks on the drive, so much so that he’ll go at the head of anyone at any time. Like this guy:

Mann finished with a solid 64% mark at the rim while showcasing some decent off-hand finishing, largely driven by his ability to get clean wins against all comers in isolation. This talent is accentuated by his set of midrange counters, which is prolific to say the least.

Simply put, a plethora of midrange counters opens up a lot of ways for Mann to create an effective shot on the drive. It gives him ways to counter if the rim is being denied by his defender or by the rotations. Selling out to stop his drives allows more space for him in the intermediate areas, which helps the rim pressure, and on and on in an endlessly frustrating cycle for defenders.

Mann isn’t limited to self-creation on his drives either. He showed a lot of promise as a drive-and-spray guy, collapsing the defense and kicking out to his shooters for open looks or closeout attack chances.

For a 23 year old, Mann is surprisingly timely at kicking behind help. Throw a tag on his roller and the ball is going behind the tagger. Show some nail help on his drives and guess what, the ball is suddenly in the shooting pocket of the help point.

When his teammates felt inclined to cut and move off of his drives, Mann was pretty adept at finding them with good lob touch and some crafty layoff passes.

It wasn’t all pretty on the drive. Mann at times is prone to wild finish attempts, especially when favoring his right hand in situations that call for a lefty finish. There were some missed opportunities for a pass that turned into bad finishes as well. Yet on the whole, his ability to create for himself and others without needing a screen is valuable.

You may be wondering at this point if Tre has any juice on the perimeter if the drives/midrange counters are cut off. Boy, does he.

His flexibility and balance stand out the most on his pull-up threes. He can bend so low on his crossovers without losing momentum and balance that it’s impossible to close the gaps he generates on step-backs.

So, we have the makings of a three-level isolation scorer here. That’s fantastic, but this is the modern NBA. What you do in screen-based actions defines your game, not 1v1 cooking. We’ll build up his PNR game in a similar fashion, working inside-out like any good offense does.

Pick-and-Roll Creation

As he does in isolation, Mann loves mashing the accelerate button on his drives, creating plenty of good rim chances.

That’s ho-hum at this point. Oh look, I can go fast. Good for you. The real question in ball screen reps is how do you manipulate defenders with that speed, more specifically changing pace on the drive. Mann showed a lot of encouraging tape in that respect.

Of course, the pull up twos were a steady presence, as they were with his isolation game.

Then we have the pull-up three point game. When facing an athletic driver like Mann, going under on the screen is often the right move. He responds by raining threes with good efficiency and deep range. Even if you go over the screen, he’s adept at finding windows to get his shot off.

In traditional pick-and-roll without a switch or Mann rejecting the screen, the playmaking popped in a lot of ways. The live dribble passing was especially impressive. Keep an eye on how Mann mixes his speeds and strategically slows down at the right times, especially when trying to let his roller find the best window for lobs and layoff passes.

Mann thrived against mixed coverages, especially as a playmaker. If they threw two at the ball, he was particularly adept at opening windows for his rollers or finding the help points and kicking to open shooters.

A key aspect of Mann’s playmaking that impresses is the blend between improvisational reads and “academy brain” type reads. A lot of passing decisions are taught in a binary manner. If they send a double, hit the roller or skip to the far corner. Mann does this often, yet sometimes he will continue the dribble to draw further help and find other reads. Often he extends to make the help withdraw then finds his roller again with nifty wrap passes. Making reads in and out of structure is the key to any high-level playmaker.

Things get a bit iffier when Mann is faced with a switch. Sometimes he would fail to take advantage of that switch by taking pull-up shots or passing out of the mismatch entirely.

But there were plenty of good attacks here. More often than not, Mann saw red on his switches and went right downhill with malice. A few of the dunk attempts looked hilarious yet spoke to his confidence in the burst and jumping explosion.

It veered into borderline concerning territory with how Mann relentlessly went for the cup when getting switches. He hardly passed out of these looks, despite the advantages that a switch creates by putting the defense in uncomfortable rotations. The switched defender is usually a key rim protecting component, making the defense susceptible to second-side drives, yet Mann often failed to take advantage. But we had some glimpses of this advantage creation.

The first read impressed me the most when noting how Mann strung his decision making together. Getting the switch on Kleber, who is acting as the small-ball 5, is the first step. He drives Kleber middle to force nail help by PJ Washington off of Miles Bridges, a strong driver. After Mann makes the pass, he spaces himself back out to the perimeter, forcing Kleber to shade towards him and away from the Bridges drive. This allows his teammate to take his time with the advantage Mann created for him and find a good shot. It seems minute, but chaining together multiple good decisions to benefit your teammate is important for a young lead guard.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: a young guard really likes rejecting screens. Even when there’s little advantage to be created by doing so, Mann loves to reject a screen and go hero ball against his man. Yet Mann often found ways to create good shots without creating an advantage by rejecting.

To be sure, there were plays where Mann rejected, created no advantage from doing so, and compounded the mistake with bad shots. He can’t touch shot/contort his way out of everything.

To my surprise, the majority of Mann’s screen rejects were advantageous. He waited for his defender to commit to the screen then quickly broke downhill, creating paint touches and buckets for himself or his teammates. Some of these improvisational reads were exceptional.

Oddly enough, his playmaking after rejects was the polar opposite of his switch playmaking. Instead of going full bore to the rim every time, he was looking to make plays first after creating legitimate advantages. I hope to see that blend become more equitable between paint scoring and drive & kick playmaking on his switch possessions this coming year.

I’d be remiss if I finished the section on his PNR reads without the “what the hell were you thinking?” possessions. Mann was prone to over-seasoning his looks, especially when it came to behind-the-back passing attempts.

But hey. If you have unlimited confidence in yourself, some weird stuff is going to happen. I’d rather have the guy who tries audacious stuff and fails from time to time than the guy who stays in the pocket and is afraid to get a little wild.

Confidence was the name of the game with Mann’s driving game. There is a reason his rim frequency nearly doubled in his switch over to Charlotte, posting an 88th percentile rim rate amongst combo guards. Role change and confidence go hand in hand. A new team hands you the keys and says do what you do best. Mann doesn’t have to be asked twice.

Obviously, pick and roll/pop looks are the main way Mann creates his on-ball looks. But what about his handoff game?

Dribble Handoffs

Charlotte wasn’t exactly a handoff-heavy squad. Compared to their pick-and-roll frequency, second highest in the league, the Hornets only generated 4.1% of their offense from handoffs. That was good for 10th lowest in the league (all numbers per Synergy).

When they did run handoffs, it was largely pitch/delay action looks. Pitch looks are often conducive to picking a direction. The pitch allows the guard receiving the handoff to generate extra momentum before the screen, momentum best used going downhill in the reverse direction of the pitch. Mann was pretty damn good on the drive whether going right or left off these looks.

It wasn’t often when the handoff led to an outright switch, but Mann created a couple of good looks out of them.

The handoffs are a great way for a downhill-first guy like Mann to create quality looks. What interests me for this season is what the usage looks like there.

Charlotte was already a low-frequency handoff team; Charles Lee comes from a Boston system that ran the third-lowest volume of handoffs this past season. But going back further in Lee’s assistant coaching tenure to Milwaukee, he was part of teams that ran handoffs at higher rates. Those Milwaukee squads had 53rd, 43rd, 27th, 70th, and 50th percentile handoff frequency rankings over Lee’s 5 seasons by the lake. Where that usage falls this upcoming year will be of great interest to me.

Creating on the ball is of the utmost importance for a player with Mann’s skill set. Yet that LaMelo Ball fella is still in town as long as his ankles are working. How does a combo guard like Mann coexist with a heavy usage guard like Ball?

Off-Ball Creation

So much about off-ball creation is shooting, especially for guards. When the ball is in the hands of his teammates, Mann is more often than not stationed above the break evaluating his chances for a catch-and-shoot look. Opportunity calls, and Mann answers with unlimited confidence in his catch-and-shoot jumper.

Not only is he unfazed by the prospect of taking a catch-and-shoot three, he will happily extend his range well beyond the arc.

Another thing that speaks to his confidence is experimenting with no-dip jump shots. It’s not the most important or useful skill, yet any shooter willing to try it has enough belief in their touch to overcome conventional mechanics. Sure, he went 0/2 trying it, but it’s the trying that counts here.

Mann took 80% of his threes above the break and hit at a 35% clip, 44th percentile amongst combo guards. That represented a career-high above the break percentage for Tre. The corner three chances were few and far between, but a career-high 43% won’t hurt. Competent spacing off the ball is a boon to his teammates, namely the drivers and bigs, but should help him to coexist with LaMelo Ball if/when the two share the floor.

The spacing he provides opens up chances for Mann as well in the form of closeout attacks.

Tre isn’t just a shooter and driver when working off the ball. As a player with lots of off-ball experience in Oklahoma City, Mann showed a solid sense of when to cut, not only to score himself but to create for others.

It’s a little skill to watch out for, but Mann anticipates his perimeter swing passes well and delivers with some zip. If you’re going to swing to your teammates, do so before the closeouts can arrive and put it in the pocket.

Mann’s 1.14 assist/usage rate in Charlotte speaks to his skill as an off-ball playmaker. Making timely reads when the ball finds you and the defense is in rotation expands your utility without the ball in his hands. And with the aforementioned LaMelo Ball returning to the lineup, oscillating between shooting, cutting and playmaking off the ball will help keep Mann on the floor.

And hey, for a 6’4″ guard, that athleticism sure as hell makes him a threat on the offensive glass.

Your combo guard being a 48th percentile offensive rebounder isn’t going to be some massive swing for the team, but Mann’s increased projected use off the ball may lead to more production on the glass. His hustle for the boards could make him an exciting possession-extending tool in the backcourt.

Is it possible that there are other ways Mann contributes to an offense?

Transition

Yes, there are!

Mann’s speed, athleticism, playmaking sense and ballhandling skill makes him an ideal transition weapon out of the backcourt. The main way this shows itself is the sense of pushing in semi-transition against an unsettled defense.

If given a true open floor to run, the scoring potential brings a charge into the building, and specifically Eric Collins.

It’s not contained to creating chances for himself. Mann is more than willing to use his scoring threat before finding layoff passes to rim runners or trailing shooters.

My only nitpick with his transition game is a lack of recognizing chances early with quick outlet passes. Mann has great placement on his throws, and not even Tre can run faster than the ball. Rip down those rebounds and get your eyes up. Let the ball do the work sometimes, not the legs.

Looking Forward

The first dozen or so games for Charlotte should be very interesting when it comes to Mann.

Charlotte plans on Tre controlling the bench unit scoring. Mann was seated for the opening tipoff in the five preseason games, with Josh Green, Seth Curry, and Tidjane Salaun all getting starts. Green projects as the starting option (insert opening night thought). This leaves us with questions.

How many minutes will Mann play alongside LaMelo? How does he balance on/off ball usage when playing with him? On the bench lineups, will Mann be a primary point-of-attack player along with his heavy offensive usage? Does Josh Green play with him often to take some of the defensive assignments? Most importantly, will he retain his seemingly limitless confidence when coming off the bench?

Opening night began to answer some of these questions. Despite coming off the bench, Mann played most of his minutes alongside LaMelo, closing out Houston in a wild late comeback. Confidence was no issue as Mann played most of his possessions off the ball, scoring 24 on 8/16 shooting and 4/8 from deep. There were several clutch buckets down the stretch of last night’s game:

I’ll be watching for a few specific areas of improvement and potential scheme changes. How can Mann better attack switches and choose rejection opportunities? Can he keep up the high free throw rates for consistent offense? Will the same playmaking chances be there with the bench lineups?

On a scheme level, I’ll be monitoring his handoff usage and catch-and-shoot rates under new coach Charles Lee. I would assume anyone who has been in the Celtics locker room knows the benefits of getting up as many threes as you can.

Don’t expect any predictions on future stardom in these articles going forward. I’ll show you the water and lead you to it, but won’t make you drink. You, dearest reader, must decide what you think of Mann’s potential for yourself.

We’ll check back in on Mann this year as he seeks to prove his worth in Charlotte, on the floor, and (most importantly for Tre) in the cap sheet.

The post Finding a Role – Tre Mann appeared first on Swish Theory.

After signing a 1-year, $62.6M extension, the maximum allowable amount on top of his existing 2-year/$115M remaining, Stephen Curry is locked in through his age 39 season. That money can buy a lot of popcorn. It also feels the closest thing to a guarantee that Curry will finish his illustrious career in the Golden State, the dream of all Warriors fans. In a recent interview with Marc Spears, Steph clarified that he’ll be in blue and gold as long as the team isn’t a “bottom feeder”. Considering this past offseason, that seems to be a rather unlikely future.

This new deal also brings a good deal of clarity to the future of this team by aligning their contracts, an interesting wrinkle I want to explore.

The New Cap Sheet

Per Spotrac, my GOAT sports contract tool, this is how the Warriors’ future cap sheet lines up with the new extension:

You’ll notice a few things from the jump. Assuming all player options are picked up, a main veteran group of Steph, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield will run through 2026-27. Hield does have an option that will run through 2027-28, but that’s tied to a deal that is non-guaranteed in the 26/27 season, so it’s far from a lock.

Another important detail lies with the young players. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have yet to be extended, despite their eligibility this offseason. I’m not Mike Dunleavy Jr., but something tells me that extending Curry and making moves for veteran pieces was the priority. A fully actualized future and organized cap sheet gives them a better idea of what numbers they can reach, especially with Kuminga.

Assuming Kuminga were to reach a 4-year max extension, he’d be the only player locked in beyond the 2026/27 season. The same can probably be said for rising star Brandin Podziemski, someone the Warriors would be silly to let go of. That creates some interesting options for that offseason.

The 2027 Fork in the Road

Let’s assume a Kuminga deal gets done this offseason and Podziemski signs a new deal in the 25/26 offseason. That locks in their core young pieces, who would be 26 and 25 years old respectively, for a possible post-Steph future. Trayce Jackson-Davis would also be locked in through 2026/27 assuming his extremely cheap options are picked up. This also gives them a chance to keep a relatively clean cap sheet for what could be a final run together in 2026/27.

Steph will be locked in. Unless Draymond Green wants to opt out of $27.7M at age 36, he will be there. Andrew Wiggins would need a massive turnaround back to his 2022 standards to consider opting out of $30M in his age 31 season. Those deals, plus Anderson and Hield on non-guaranteed years, line up a three-year window for this team.

There’s some wiggle room here too. Moses Moody extension talks have been as quiet as the grave, and he may find himself on a new team by this time next year. Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, and new signing De’Anthony Melton represent $30M in expiring money next offseason. If this current team falls short of expectations, the brain trust can try to re-tool or make trades to reshape its image.

Let’s tease out a few scenarios here, from the optimistic to the realistic.

Where Is This Headed?

Here’s the ideal option. The veteran group stays locked in for the next few years and builds themselves a competitive playoff team. The young players develop while working toward new contracts. A trade here, a signing there, you might even have a contender on your hands. Then comes the 2027 offseason, and the veterans can return at lower cap numbers if they’re not ready to hang up the sneakers. Crazier things have happened but Steph Curry probably won’t be worth $62 million at age 39, nor Draymond worth $27 million at age 36. Maybe 2027/28 is the final swan song, vets surrounding the young core of Kuminga/Podziemski/Jackson-Davis. Hell, maybe Moses Moody is still around.

A more realistic option is this team spends the next few years fighting to stay relevant in the perpetual knife fight known as the Western Conference. No more jewelry, just a battle against the inexorable march of time. To some absolutist fans, that’s the nightmare scenario, and I can understand it on some level. 2K brain has us thinking you need to contend or stink out loud and anything in between is nothing short of criminal.

Ask yourselves: with no rings coming, would it be the worst thing ever to watch the greatest point guard of all time finish out his career where it started? On a team that should be playing April basketball? With some exciting young players in tow? Many things are worse.

Let’s say that is the realistic course. Steph, Draymond, and Kerr have three more years before retirement. Wiggins comes off the books, Hield and Anderson expire, and suddenly the youth are in charge. Golden State also owns all their first-round picks through the 2030 season, so one would assume another exciting player or two can be added between now and that 2027 offseason. We can sing the swan song and move into a new era with a well-laid path.

Some teams tank outright and find themselves with young prospect groups worse than Kuminga, Podz, Moody, and TJD. They’ll have a few more years of seasoning and will all be 27 or younger by the time this potential exodus of franchise legends occurs. It’s not a bad spot to find yourself in after the greatest core in franchise history moves from the court to the rafters and statues outside Chase Center.

So keep that 2027 number in mind. For all the yelling and whining many fans have done about this front office, they have set up a clear runway into this decision point. What happens now is for the players to decide.

The post Warriors Create Contract Alignment appeared first on Swish Theory.

Okay, it’s not the history you’ll read in social studies class, or even on Basketball Reference. Barlow has the distinction of being the first player out of the Overtime Elite program to make it to the NBA.

Barlow broke into the league with the Spurs in 2022 as an UDFA on a two-way deal, more or less an afterthought on a team bad enough to secure the services of Victor Wembanyama in the subsequent draft. He played a similar role this past season from the end of the roster before hitting free agency, much to the chagrin of my Spurs-supporting friends.

Followers of this series are probably thinking about how Barlow is a bit of a shift from the usual kind of player I cover. Most of the others were higher picks with a few years of serious rotation minutes under their belt. So out of the roughly 500 players to step on an NBA floor each given year, why does Dom get my focus?

I’m drawn to non-traditional skills like a moth to a lamp. Even in a limited sample size, Barlow showed off his unique blend of size, touch, movement skill, and versatility. I want to dive into the tape to explain why the Atlanta Hawks may have spun gold out of thin air by signing Barlow.

Offensive Overview

The reverse shooting splits in the paint jumped out to me first about Barlow’s offensive profile. If I told you about a 6-foot-10 220-pound bouncy big man, you’d assume his rim finishing numbers were solid and the touch was lacking. The reverse has been true so far in Barlow’s career.

Dom has finished 62% of his rim looks in his career, 29th and 15th percentile marks for bigs across his first two years respectively. Yet he’s at 42% on short midrange looks (4-14 foot distance) over that same span, taking a huge jump from his rookie year (4/17) to his sophomore (19/38). That 50% mark last season represented an 81st-percentile mark and did not look like a fluke on the tape. To boot, Barlow is 7/15 in the long midrange for his career and 2/7 from deep. It’s unusual for a big in the modern NBA to find their most efficient spots in the midrange.

Barlow showed some important statistical development in other areas as well. His assist rate jumped from 7.1% to 12.7% while cutting his turnover rate by more than half (15.3% to 7.3%). His usage rate increased while his assist/usage rate followed, a good sign of a developing feel on the floor. In fact, Barlow’s 0.90 assist/usage ratio this past season was a 90th percentile mark for bigs.

Granted all of these stats come with a major sample size caveat. Does a 2/7 mark from deep make him a budding Brook Lopez? Do improving playmaking figures make him Marc Gasol reincarnate? They do not. Yet it shows development on the whole without much change in context. The only major change to San Antonio’s roster was the demigod we know as Victor’s arrival, and the two only shared the court for 16 total possessions. This is a story of a player growing rapidly despite the frantic mess of lineups around him.

Most importantly, San Antonio’s offense was 9.8 points per 100 possessions better with Barlow on the floor. That’s a 99th-percentile mark and shows that he can fit in with a competent half-court unit.

I’ve explained the what. Now it’s time to see the how.

Screen-Based Actions

When you play on a team with Trae Young, get ready to learn screen and roll buddy. Barlow presents an interesting change from Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, two fairly traditional roll-and-slam kind of guys (moreso Capela than OO) because he is best used on the short roll. The screen, catch, and push shot combo was arguably his best action last year.

That kind of intermediate touch brings issues for whatever kind of pick-and-roll coverage you deploy. It’ll always be available against drop coverage, and if two go to the ball screen he can organize himself for a quality shot before the defense can recover. That could be very valuable playing off Ice Trae.

Barlow also has a unique habit of fading off the baseline if the dunker spot looks aren’t there after his roll is finished. One could argue he went to this position too easily, but it was effective nonetheless.

Things get murkier on more traditional screen-and-rolls. The athleticism does give him a major boost when given a clear lane, and he’s able to explode to the cup before help can arrive. There have even been some solid possessions where he dives to the dunker spot and can get off a solid finish, usually if the big man commits to the handler.

Where it gets rough is when help presents itself or the big can recover and contest his shot. That’s when the woeful rim finishing figures rear their ugly head.

There are glimpses of the right footwork, and we know the touch is there. Barlow’s main problem is chaining the sequence together from footwork to finish and being able to bully his man into better spots. It’s a unique problem for a modern big, working on their finishing from the outside in as opposed to inside out.

Barlow showed a couple of flashes as a playmaker out of the roll. Though I would have liked to see more, it’s nice to see that he is indeed capable.

The sense of screening angles and playmaking stands out a lot more in these sets. San Antonio loves to run multiple handoff looks, including a heavy dose of “Delay” sets, requiring the big to evaluate multiple options in quick succession. This gave a better glimpse into Barlow’s floor sense.

I came away even more impressed with his sense of when to pitch the handoff. This gives him extra time to find the right angle and less time for the defender chasing the ballhandler to react. He showed more of a willingness to put his body into the screens, where he was a tad more contact-averse setting pick and rolls. The heightened sense of floor reading also showed with a pinch of playmaking here and there.

That second clip stood out to me the most. Rejecting two handoff options in quick succession, flowing to the third, and tossing a nice backdoor bounce pass. That’s an impressive combination of process and execution from a big who has only been able to legally drink for two months.

The feel showed even further with his sense of when to keep the ball on dribble handoffs when the opportunity presented itself.

Granted, the finishing isn’t where it needs to be on these plays. But he sees a chance to catch the defending big by surprise and takes it, which I like. The finishing issues still present themselves when he gets a chance to roll, but the bright spots are there.

There are real areas of improvement here to be had. The finishing stands out as a need of course, and a bit more willingness to kick back out to shooters once the help commits would be nice to see. What’s important is the foundation is there. Touch, processing, floor sense. Can’t build a house without laying the foundation first.

Cutting

Despite his age, Barlow has already mastered what I like to call the Kyle Anderson cut: drifting into open midrange space. It’s a great way to complement his midrange success.

Barlow also shows a good sense of when to make the more traditional big man cuts: finding the dunker spot, moving around drivers for space in the lane, and diving to the rim when space is afforded to him. Problems with the finishing are still there, but there was a lot more good than bad.

The good news about not being a huge scoring threat as a big is that people will forget about you. Barlow knows this and uses it to his advantage. That’s something I like to see in a young big.

Perimeter Play

This is where the fun begins.

We’ll get the bad out of the way early. Sometimes when Barlow drives, the finishing makes you want to avert your eyes.

The footwork, balance, and handle are all there especially when considering his size. It’s that pesky finishing once again coming back to bite.

But when it all comes together? That is a real sight to see.

A tight crossover. Deceleration into a finish. Even a smattering of left-handed finishes. All of the tools are there, even if they don’t always fall together at the same time.

How many 6’10” players with his frame can hold together a right-to-left crossover? Decelerate and not fall apart? Finish off hand? How many wouldn’t even want to try it? This is a huge factor in Barlow’s high-upside offensive skillset.

Oh, and he has some decent shooting form when called for.

There’s inconsistency. Some inefficiency. But we’re starting to see a complete skillset come into frame.

What else can he do?

Gap Filling

He didn’t often get the chance to show it, but Barlow looked awfully fleet of foot in transition when opportunities presented themselves. Sometimes he’d have to create the opportunity himself.

The finishing could get a bit complicated for him at times, but remember we’re here looking for ingredients, not the entire recipe.

On the post-up front, there’s not much to speak of. The lack of functional strength and finishing shows up in a bad way.

Barlow has also made his presence felt as an offensive rebounder from time to time. His offensive rebounding numbers are strong already, and he has more than enough hustle to outwork his opponents.

Finally, we have the playmaking out of structure. Making reads on the roll or from dribble handoffs is one thing. Improvising when initial actions don’t play out is another thing entirely.

In short, there are many possibilities and situations for Barlow to contribute. It’s all a matter of finding an offensive system where he can tap into that potential. And a Mikan drill or three wouldn’t hurt.

Role Fit

Offensively, Barlow is quite the departure from the two bigs ahead of him on the depth chart. Assuming he slots in as the third-string center (what I view as his best position), the on-ball skill and shooting touch seem to increase the further down the depth chart you go. Clint Capela’s offensive skillset would even be limited for a 1970s big man. Onyeka Okongwu is a bit more of a shooter, but one the defense will leave alone. Neither are real playmakers to speak of.

Barlow offers more of a short roll game, both as a midrange shooter and playmaker. Though his thump as a screener needs work, he can be a solid DHO tool with the added threat of his take-it-and-go game. Atlanta could benefit from a center who doesn’t mind putting the ball on the deck once in a while.

There’s a lot to like about this fit for both Atlanta and Barlow on the offensive end. He will certainly be seeing minutes, either as a 4 or a rotation replacement when Capela/Okongwu inevitably miss time. He’ll have the benefit of Trae Young’s PNR gravity and plenty of 30-foot rolls. Who better to create gravity on dribble handoffs than a lethal shooter like Bogdan Bogdanovic?

I can see great benefits for Barlow’s offensive game in Atlanta. A splash of variety can go a long way on a team starved for diverse skill sets. However, there is that other side of the floor…

Defensive Overview

Once again, despite the small sample size, this was an area of tangible growth.

Barlow managed to up his total stock rate, posting above-average marks in block and steal percentages. He also managed to cut his foul rate a hair AND up his defensive rebounding percentage. Now that’s some nice growth. But it may not be enough.

The talent and floor sense have been more difficult to translate to the defensive end of the floor. Granted, San Antonio did not have much in the way of defensive personnel and cohesion, but lineups with Barlow at center posted a 126.1 defensive rating. That doesn’t inspire much confidence.

I could cut clips of bad process and technique, lack of strength, and poor positioning. Trust me, they are there. But we’re talking about a 21-year-old center here who spent his first two seasons trying to claw his way out of a dumpster fire of a team. I’m here looking for progress, not perfection. So let’s see where the progress was made.

Pick-and-Roll/DHO Defense

In a similar vein to the sliding scale of offensive versatility, Barlow offers more ability (at least in theory) to be coverage versatile in screening actions than Capela and Okongwu. Granted, just about anyone is more coverage versatile than this version of Clint Capela, and injuries have limited Okongwu’s ability to contribute beyond drop coverage. But Atlanta plays the cards they are given, and Barlow gives them a chance at dealing a new hand.

He can make a difference as a drop defender. The size and short-area mobility are the requisite tools he already possesses. I’d like to see more improvement in his sense of angles and positioning but the foundation is there.

When it all comes together, he can make some pretty spectacular steals and blocks while situated in drop. The backpedaling skill in particular stood out to me.

What separates him from his new cohorts is his talent for making plays when showing to the level of the screen. Barlow is even comfortable flat-out switching on the handler, and can still make an impact with his mobility and reach. Often long enough to allow the defense to recover, and occasionally shutting down the action all by his lonesome.

He has a ways to go in these areas. It will take time – young bigs who are behind the curve defensively take years to get the reps and technique needed to be true difference-makers as a helper in screen actions. Yet much like his offensive game, the pieces of the puzzle are all there for Barlow. It’s a matter of putting them together in time.

And there are other areas where he has shown considerable promise.

Rotational Defending

Timing, patience, execution. That is what makes an elite rotational defender.

There are moments where all three elements elude Barlow, as sometimes he can get only one or two. But when all three come together, it is a sight to see.

A major component of that, when you’re a big, is sliding to protect the rim at the right times. The same three principles listed above all apply, and Barlow can put it all together from time to time.

It’ll need some work, as much of his game does. But the potential is there for a strong rotational defender to emerge.

Perimeter Defending

Though not his most called-upon skill, Barlow has shown some real flashes when taken out on an island. He’s got the foot speed and lateral agility to stay in front of some guards and wings, plus the strength to not get put under the rim by bigs trying to drive on him.

It’s an important arrow in the quiver for a big who projects to show and switch often. Many ballhandlers will see a big on a switch and choose to pull them back out to the perimeter with the intent of attacking in isolation. If Barlow can put doubt in their minds about his veracity as a perimeter weak point, that would be huge for his development.

Hitting the Glass

There’s no denying the defensive rebounding is a struggle point. But strides have been made, jumping from a 25th percentile rebounder his rookie year to 43rd percentile last year. There were marked improvements in his technique, namely a desire to box out consistently.

The aforementioned hustle he showed on the offensive glass was also present. Dom was more than willing to throw himself into a crowd or use every inch of his length to tip balls to finish off a defensive stop. I’d expect another jump to be made next year in his defensive rebounding numbers.

There’s a lot to like with the defensive game and a lot that needs time. Where does this leave him in the context of the Atlanta Hawks?

Role Fit

Outside of a healthy Onyeka Okongwu, an idea that comes with a great big asterisk, Atlanta’s big man room is filled with stiff bodies. None possess the combination of length, athleticism, and short-area movement skills that Barlow has.

How that translates remains to be seen. They do not have many defensive-minded guards, and the wings like Bogdan, DeAndre Hunter, and Zaccharie Risacher are a step slow or too slight to make a meaningful impact. In Hunter’s case, a slew of injuries take away much of that effectiveness. That will leave Barlow on an island often, tasked with containing both ballhandler and roller on many a screening action.

I fear that may prove a detriment to his development, being overtasked at such a young age when he has far to go defensively. I’d prefer a context where he can build from narrowed responsibilities into more. Yet there is a chance he can be forged in fire instead of hand-held on his journey of development.

From Atlanta’s perspective, Barlow offers the ability to mix screen coverages as needed. If a game calls for showing hard at the ballhandler or switching outright, he is more than capable of contributing. Of all teams to be in playoff contention the last several years, Atlanta is far and away the worst defensive unit. Any element of variability will be welcome in Quin Snyder’s rotation.

For a two-way free agent signing, Barlow is a strange case. Most two-ways who are his age and with his considerable upside are recent second-round draftees or priority undrafted free agents. Most who switch teams to take two-ways are grasping at their last chances in the league. It’s rare for a player of Dominick’s growing talent to find himself in this situation.

I’m quite high on Atlanta as a place to develop his offensive skills. It’s certainly less than ideal for his defensive growth, but the good news is defensive development is more in control of the player than offensive. If nobody can create offensive gravity, he won’t get very far. Having to fight on two fronts defensively because your guards are dying endlessly on screens and the rotation help is lackluster will hurt him, to be sure. That won’t completely hamper him from working on timing, patience, effort, and execution on that end.

I think both sides will benefit greatly from this partnership, and I’m excited to see Dominick seize his place in the league after showing promise in San Antonio. I will be seated and watching.

The post Finding a Role: Dominick Barlow appeared first on Swish Theory.