I love it when a trade comes out of nowhere and rocks our socks off. Two days before the deadline, the Utah Jazz stunned the world by swinging a trade for Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. Hey, NBA insiders, what is the point of you existing if we got no wind of this?

The Jazz are a fascinating case in small-market team building as it relates to my own team-building philosophies. Allow me to explain why I think this trade was very short-sighted and potentially disastrous for the Jazz.

Addressing the Talent Deficit

The NBA has always been a league of the haves and the have-nots. If you have the superstar talent, you are in the mix. If you don’t have it, you spend your time searching for that talent. The Jazz learned the hard way that having stars, but not superstars, does not win you titles. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were a great tandem that led to a lot of regular-season success, but always came up wanting against teams with better top-end talent. That’s how we got here in the first place.

Utah has taken up a different tack since Danny Ainge came into town. Soon after his arrival in December 2021, Ainge shipped Mitchell and Gobert out of town for 11 combined picks and pick swaps. It was an admission of failure for that era of the team, and the acceptance of a stark reality: a huge volume of draft picks and a lengthy tank is the only way to get blue-chip talent in Salt Lake City.

Luxuries afforded to other teams are not afforded to the Jazz. Teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, and Warriors can fall back-asswards into star talent. Free agency is largely dead anyway, and no franchise-altering star is forcing their way to Utah via trade. So you can either pay a king’s ransom in a trade to get that talent, or you can hope the lottery balls bounce your way.

Last year was their best shot. Utah’s tank was successful, bottoming out with a 17-65 record that landed them the top odds for the No. 1 pick. Still, there was only a 14% chance of landing Cooper Flagg, a slam-dunk franchise-altering talent. Instead, they were bumped down to five, taking Ace Bailey. Womp womp. So it goes with the tank.

This year was another prime opportunity to tank into that blue-chip talent. Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa all have the look of franchise players. Odds are good that if you secure a spot in the top four, you’re coming away with a top-tier prospect, something the Jazz have not had in a decade. Until Tuesday, things were on track; Utah was sixth in lottery odds before the Jackson Jr. deal, with a 37.2% chance of a top four pick and 9% chance of the top selection. Not bad odds of changing your franchise forever.

Then the trade happened. And the evaluation changed completely.

The Sin of Gambling

Here’s why the Jazz are in such a precarious position after the trade. Utah is at the back end of the real tankers behind Sacramento, New Orleans, Indiana, Brooklyn, and Washington. All six of these teams will be racing to the bottom. But there are more contestants in this tank battle, and Utah just gave one of them an admission ticket. Here’s what the tank race looked like at the time of the trade:

At best, the five teams in front of the Jazz are standing pat, if not selling off more pieces. That makes it difficult to pass them in the standings, even if you lock JJJ in a closet for the rest of the season alongside Lauri Markkanen. You also have to look at the teams behind them.

The Bucks are actively shopping Giannis, and even if he doesn’t move, he’s going to be out injured and not motivated to return anytime soon. The Mavericks are in the same boat with AD and have other pieces to sell off. Then you have the Grizzlies, who just shed their most valuable player and seem likely to move more, possibly Ja Morant. All three of these teams got the memo: it’s over for us. Let’s hope the lottery gods bless us as we look to the future.

But the Jazz apparently missed the memo. Their chances of tanking into top-level talent worsened because of the players they acquired, and they also helped a team behind them tank. To me, that is a disastrous risk; making it 1% less likely that you get Darryn Peterson is catastrophic, even if your current chance of getting him is only 9%.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Jazz have protections on this year’s pick. If it falls outside the top eight, it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Sam Presti, you dirty dog. Sitting at sixth in the odds means the Jazz only have a 3.8% chance of losing the pick. Seventh, that rises to 14.2%. Eighth, and you’re up to 39.2%. Tumble to ninth, and there’s a 79.7% chance it’s gone. The margins sure are thin.

There is an argument to be made that a boom-bust approach to this pick has merit. But look at this Jazz roster and the draft picks that have been worth keeping. Keyonte George and Walker Kessler, arguably their two best rookie-scale building blocks, were taken outside of the lottery. Kyle Filipowski was a high second-rounder. Isaiah Collier was late first. Jury is still out on Ace Bailey, but without question, the majority of the talent they’ve had worth keeping is outside of the top eight picks. Losing this pick to the Thunder would be a huge blow to the rebuild.

That is a smaller concern because the math still favors Utah, though less so than before the trade. The bigger draft concern for me is the 2027 first-round pick. The most favorable of Utah, Minnesota, and Cleveland’s first-round picks are going to Memphis. Now the Jazz have 1.5 seasons to turn it around, or else a primo draft pick is going out the door. And that’s assuming that they are worse than Minnesota and Cleveland. Jaren certainly improves their outlook (more on that soon), but it’s a big gamble that they can ascend after two straight abysmal seasons.

This is the gamble that Danny Ainge is making. He’s willing to harm his chances in this current lottery while punting on his best 2027 draft pick; those are two significant opportunities to get a blue-chip player that changes the franchise. And he did it all for a player I’m not convinced is all that transformative.

Where Is The Ceiling?

As discussed at the beginning, the Jazz got here by moving on from a core that was good, but not good enough. I’m willing to bet that this new core they’re working on is more of the same.

On paper, I like their emphasis on size. Walker Kessler, when healthy, is a tremendous interior defender and rebounder. JJJ and Lauri both provide floor spacing, secondary rim protection, and good rotational defense. Kessler and Markkanen, being plus positional rebounders, cover up for Jackson Jr.’s well-documented weakness on the glass. When on the floor together, I like that trio.

It also fits well with Keyonte George, who has been the breakout star for the Jazz at a time when they desperately need one. He’s shown himself to be an electric perimeter scorer who can shoulder a heavy usage burden. Keyonte can stir the drink enough for Jaren and Lauri, while that massive frontcourt trio covers for him defensively.

Theoretically, that big frontcourt trio, plus Keyonte and Ace Bailey, can work together on the floor. Hell, maybe it’s good enough to get them out from the bottom of the West. But where is the upside here?

If the Jazz luck into Darryn Peterson, all is forgiven. He’s got superstar perimeter creator written all over him, and would fit well at the two guard with that lineup. But that’s not something you can rely on. Assuming the Jazz don’t get one of the top picks (or lose the pick outright), the path to climbing out of the cellar is tough.

Utah has to fix a defense that has ranked in the bottom two in defensive rating for the last three seasons. JJJ and Kessler are a great step towards fixing that, but with so many perimeter players that cannot defend, it’s a tall task just to become average. You also need to take further offensive steps, which should be easier with Keyonte’s breakout and the great offensive mind of head coach Will Hardy.

There is an avenue for this team to become passable at both ends of the floor. JJJ does make a lot of their pieces click on both ends in theory. But passable doesn’t win playoff series, let alone get you to the mountaintop. That’s why the Jazz still need to be chasing superstars. And that gets awfully difficult when you look at the timeline here.

Utah will lock up Walker Kessler (RFA) and Keyonte George (rookie extension eligible) this offseason, locking in their core players for at least three seasons. That is a huge plus. After you take care of that, it’s time to win. Ask the New Orleans Pelicans about the dangers of shortening your rebuild. I’m not sure if you have looked at the Western Conference recently, but things are awfully tough out there.

A lot of the teams in the mix this year aren’t going anywhere. The Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets will contend as long as they have their respective superstars. Both the Timberwolves and Lakers have flaws, but they have the superstars who deliver when it’s winning time. Houston has an aging superstar flanked by excellent young talent and a hoard of picks to trade. From there, things get murkier; the Clippers and Warriors are fading, but not dead yet. Phoenix and Portland have star talent and a rising cast of role players. Realistically, how far can the Jazz climb into this picture? My money is on a play-in ceiling for next year’s team, at best.

Chances are good that they’re forking over a lottery pick next year. That’s another chance at blue-chip talent gone through the draft. They will have other picks down the road, but that’s another tricky proposition.

If you’re good enough to make the playoffs in 2028, then the window for a high draft pick is gone. Then you’re reliant on later draft hits, which they have managed before, but it’s a low percentage gamble. Adding superstar talent through the draft is all but eliminated. That leaves only one other realistic avenue.

War Chest: Emptied

So many of the draft picks the Jazz had are gone now. They had four surplus first-round picks remaining before the JJJ trade; now they only have one. That pick falls in 2029 and is either a Minnesota or Cleveland pick. Ainge consolidated three lesser firsts to get a 2031 Phoenix unprotected first, then shipped it to Memphis in this deal. That was arguably their most prized asset remaining.

Let’s say a superstar that fits Utah’s timeline becomes available. As we’ve seen recently, nothing is off the table. The Jazz could have hoarded their picks and attempted to blow the doors off someone this offseason by being able to trade up to eight first-round picks, plus swaps. That’s a war chest few can match. After the JJJ trade, that dangling carrot is gone. They’re down to five picks, most of which are their own.

Don’t get me wrong, this Jazz team is vastly better now than it was yesterday. But to make serious noise, they need the guy. The draft avenues to getting that guy have decreased, and the trade avenues have decreased as well. It feels like the Jazz have painted themselves into a corner.

Time Is A Flat Circle

Jazz fans certainly have fond memories of the Mitchell-Gobert days. They cleaned up in the regular season, made the playoffs for six straight years, and brought a level of consistent excitement that was desperately needed in Utah. At the same time, they only won three playoff series in those six years and failed to get through to the Conference Finals. The West was as it always is: a murderer’s row of superstars and contending teams.

It seems that the Jazz yearn for that once again. The lottery balls haven’t fallen their way so far, and they’re tired of this intentional losing. So it’s time to assemble a handful of second-rate stars and become competitive with contention out of reach.

That’s not the worst thing ever. There’s no shame in staying competitive, but it does place a hard ceiling on your team. I’ve written before about why the Jazz are not going about their teardown in the right way; now I see them giving up on the rebuild early and settling for mediocrity. If that’s your thing, cool. But it’s not how I would go about turning a small-market team into a contender.

The post JJJ And The Knife’s Edge of Small Market Team Building appeared first on Swish Theory.

Few sports have as much obsession over prospects as the NBA. Potential is king in the league, and collecting potential leads to success when done correctly. But you hardly ever see comprehensive rankings that reflect the true depth of young talent in the NBA.

With how many games I’ve watched around the league over the past couple of seasons, I sat with a stack of notes, clips, and stats, wondering what I could do with them. Then, last year, I read Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects list, and it hit me. Why not do the same for basketball?

It’s my second year in a row putting together my Top 100 prospects list in the NBA. I compiled my film, scouting priors, game notes, and key stats to take my best shot at organizing more than 20% of NBA players into this list. It’s not going to be perfect, but from 1-100, I have some idea of what each player is or can be. I don’t blindly shoot from the hip.

Some notes on the methodology before we get into the list. Players in their first three years of NBA action are eligible for the list; if you’ve hit the summer where rookie extensions start, you’re off the list. Similar to baseball Top 100 lists, I wanted to set a benchmark for “graduating”, and it’s different in a league where the minor league system is an afterthought compared to the MLB. There will also be some honorable mentions if I considered a player in any meaningful way for a spot.

Using Kevin Pelton’s draft pick value scale, I assigned numerical values to each prospect. It operates on a logarithmic scale, assigning a heavier weight to the top prospects. For example, the top overall prospect is worth ten times the 60th-best prospect in this exercise. The 1-100 ranking was entirely subjective based on my own opinions of the player, but the rankings of each team were done by adding up the “Pelton values” of each team.

I’m not paying attention to fit here. This is about having the talent; even if three players have redundant skill sets, you still have three players. Getting talent in the door is often the most challenging part of building a team.

Now that we’ve set the expectations and laid the groundwork, it’s time to dig into the rankings, starting with the top spot.

2024-25 Rank: 3rd

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Jeremy Sochan (No. 47), Julian Champagnie (No. 60)

It pays to be king. Last season, the Spurs came in third in my rankings and had the highest average value per prospect. With Victor Wembanyama in his last year of prospect eligibility, it feels right that they own the top spot. That would have been a close-fought battle with the No. 2 team, but they hit lottery gold once again, jumping up to the 2nd overall pick and nabbing Dylan Harper.

Harper changes their farm outlook significantly. Now they have a talented shot creator and table setter who won’t compromise their defense. And the addition of Carter Bryant is the cherry on top. He spent all of Summer League slapping the floor and living in opposing players’ jerseys like a bad tattoo. He’s got the hustle and the respect of his teammates; add in athleticism that makes you cower in fear, and you’ve got a potential fast riser in these rankings.

Stephon Castle has a harder ceiling than most seem to think. Shooting is one thing, but he has a limited passing tree and problems with short-area verticality. I understand why people look at him and see Jimmy Butler, but that’s one of the most difficult outcomes to achieve. His on-ball defense and driving brings a solid floor, but I don’t see him as an inner circle core piece of the Spurs. He’s more of a question mark than I’d like him to be.

How far they tumble when Wemby graduates next year is a question that cannot be answered yet. For now, bask in the glory of the top spot, Spurs fans.

Honorable Mention: Riley Minix

2024-25 Rank: No. 6

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Washington came in sixth in last year’s rankings on the strength of four prospects. Now they’ve amassed nine total players nearly vaulting them into the top spot.

I’m not a Wizards rebuild truther like the Twitterati and prestige NBA podcasters; there are many flaws with the players they’ve acquired. However, I am an ardent Bilal Coulibaly believer. The top three prospects here are slam-dunk stars, and he’s the next best bet in my mind to crash into that group. I know to most this is a jarring take, so if you need more explanation, look no further.

Alex Sarr’s concerning lack of an offensive niche was evident last year, but he did bring a strong defensive presence as a rookie. He’s not so disastrous that I can write off his potential. Tre Johnson was a strong pick to add a nuclear on-ball shooting prospect into this defense-first prospect pool. Having a player like him to take the Corey Kispert role a step further is important for tying together this roster. After that, it’s a grab bag of maybes.

Kyshawn George has some ardent supporters, but I want to see more offensively to justify his role. Bub Carrington doesn’t have a skill set that excites me, nor did his rookie play. AJ Johnson flashed in the March silly season after being traded mid-season from the Bucks, but the sample size is too low and the play too inconsistent. Cam Whitmore may truly be on his last chance to pop and doesn’t have the role player traits needed to have a floor. Jamir Watkins and Will Riley intrigue me as second round rookie darts with solid role player traits and athletic upside.

Ultimately, the Wizards did brute force their way into the top tier. A whopping nine prospects led the entire league in this ranking. Many other teams have the top guys or better-fitting pieces, but Washington does have a lot of bites at the apple, as Danny Leroux would say. It’s still a team that needs a blue chip prospect to make things fit, but the good news is they’re bound to be bad enough to get that guy in the next draft.

Honorable Mention: Tristan Vukcevic

2024-25 Rank: No. 15

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Jaden Hardy (No. 46), Olivier Maxence-Prosper (No. 97)

This is where the log scale really kicks into gear. Dallas ends up with about 75% of the total prospect value that Washington has with two players. “Lucking” into Cooper Flagg can undoubtedly change your outlook after placing 15th in the rankings last season; Dallas is the biggest riser from the previous season.

I don’t think much needs to be said about Flagg. He was an easy choice for the second spot in the rankings and dramatically altered the fortunes of this Mavericks team. It just goes to show you can shoot yourself in the foot, arm, chest and face and come out on top by sheer luck of the draw.

Dereck Lively II dropped a few spots, primarily due to injury concerns. His rookie season was impressive, but going from a mildly concerning 55 games played to 36 games played is a red flag. The improvements as a playmaker were noticeable, but he’s more or less in a holding pattern. Still, being a coverage-versatile big with above-the-rim finishing skills and legitimate short roll chops is immensely valuable in today’s league. Let’s just hope he can stay on the floor.

There are a lot of cooks in the kitchen here with Dallas. The presence of Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving throws some doubt onto their desired play style and timeline for contention. But with a true blue talent and another strong starting-level big in the wings, they earned their spot.

Honorable Mention: Ryan Nembhard

2024-25 Rank: No. 7

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Shaedon Sharpe (No. 33), Jabari Walker (No. 92)

Rising in the team rankings while losing the 33rd-ranked player is extremely impressive. But the jump by Toumani Camara was undeniable. I hedged my bets last year, even as an ardent Tou supporter, ranking him 36th overall and fourth amongst Blazers players. Now he’s undeniably their top prospect, and perhaps their best player overall. I should have listened to myself.

Donovan Clingan brings an incredible defensive presence when he’s out there and functions as a substantial lob threat, but he has some fouling issues to address. I was pleasantly surprised at the passing reads Clingan can make; I suppose when you’re 7’2″, the court opens up a bit. The mix of his athletic tools and day-one polish (77th percentile EPM in his rookie season) makes him one of the best big man prospects around.

Scoot Henderson may be entering a make-or-break third season, but he did show growth. Granted, when you look like the worst player in the league out of the gate, there is only room to go up. But the burden on this extreme defense-first roster may be too much for him to handle.

Yang Hansen’s fit in the rotation is interesting to monitor, but the talent is undeniable. If he’s purely a backup five to Clingan, he’s going to eat against bench units. But if Chauncey Billups finds a way to work two-big lineups the way Cleveland did, the potential is through the roof.

I may end up having some egg on my face for placing Yang this low. But so it goes.

There’s a good chance that Portland retains a top-five spot going into next year with how young their talent is. As they push for a playoff spot this year, it’s a great place to be in.

Honorable Mention: Kris Murray

2024-25 Rank: No. 2

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Jabari Smith Jr. (No. 20), Tari Eason (No. 29), Cam Whitmore (No. 65)

Speaking of a good place to be in. We all saw what an unleashed version of Amen Thompson looked like last year. Now, the Rockets have no choice but to give Reed Sheppard the keys to the point guard spot.

Amen is the third and final player of my locked-in star tier. The defensive XLNC, combined with his driving and playmaking skills, will be the focal point of Houston’s season as they look to contend for a title. Newly acquired Kevin Durant will shoulder the scoring burden, and Alperen Şengün will organize things offensively, but it’s Thompson and his growth that will dictate how far they can go.

Reed being a G League player for most of last season was a surprise. But given how he’s looked in Summer League and preseason, I can’t knock it. With Fred VanVleet out for the season, he’s locked into an important rotation role, if not a starting one. It’s a lot of fun to watch a would-be contender that hinges on the success of two young prospects.

Having blue-chip talents with a good blend of short-term utility and long-term upside is what makes this Houston team so interesting. Under head coach Ime Udoka, I trust their development to be handled properly.

Honorable Mention: Zay Crawford

2024-25 Rank: No. 11

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Mark Williams (No. 35), Moussa Diabate (No. 80)

The game is about a bucket. Based on their drafting history, the Charlotte Hornets are aware of this. Brandon Miller is going into a crucial third season; his stellar rookie campaign was followed by an injury-riddled sophomore season that casts some doubts. But he’s still an athletic player with forward size and natural scoring talent. You can only drop a guy like that so far.

Kon Knueppel was tough to place. I like him a lot coming out of the draft, but the playmaking and defense is the real swing. Can he show he’s more than just a great shooter? I lean yes, but I need to see it before I believe it. In my opinion, they did make the right call in addressing backcourt scoring, because LaMelo Ball’s availability is not something to be counted on.

I love what Charlotte did later in this draft. Ryan Kalkbrenner didn’t rack up four straight Big East DPOYs in a row by accident. He’s a polished rotation big who will bring some stability to the frontcourt after a tumultuous 2024-25 season. Liam McNeeley has some scoring and shooting chops while bringing a five-star recruiting pedigree. He’s more of a gamble than Kalkbrenner, but a bet they should take. Sion James has all the tools to be a rotational defensive wing with some offensive upside; another good stability play.

I’m not really sure what to make of Tidjane Salaün yet. The only sell I see on him so far is the size, athleticism, and age. Pretty much everything was bad in his rookie year. Maybe there’s something to be unlocked in a more consistent rotation with stable center play, but I’m reserved in my optimism.

Trusting in the Hornets will get you stung. Surely they will find some way to muck things up, but for now, it’s easy to get excited about their crop of talent.

Honorable Mentions: KJ Simpson, Antonio Reeves

2024-25 Rank: No. 17

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Walker Kessler (No. 62)

Well, at least the Jazz moved up. It’s frankly impressive to have eight players and only finish seventh in a ranking that rewards both volume and quality.

There are some good things here. Ace Bailey is having a strong preseason; there’s a level of shotmaking, athleticism, size, and effort that brings too much floor to ignore. The problem is that he’s almost strictly an off-ball player in Will Hardy’s system at the moment. A tall shooter who can defend a bit isn’t the reward they wanted from an abysmal 2024-25 season. Part of ranking individual talents is projecting future fits alongside four other players. Ace’s weaknesses require a lot of papering over from the other four players, which dinged his ranking.

We do have a few breakout candidates here. Kyle Filipowski has an offensive skill set that cannot be ignored, and could shine as their best prospect by the end of the year. Brice Sensabaugh has turned into a walking bucket during Summer League and preseason; at his size, that could pose a matchup nightmare. I love Isaiah Collier’s potential as a driver and playmaker. Walter Clayton Jr. was a shrewd business move in the first round, bringing a ready-made skillset in a sea of question marks. There’s something to be said for bringing stability in the midst of chaos.

After that, it gets weird. Taylor Hendricks had some solid potential, but the seriousness of his leg injury is hard to ignore. Keyonte George has not been good at any point in his career, and Walmart Anfernee Simons isn’t a skill set that moves me. Cody Williams was one of the worst starting players I’ve ever seen last season, and my expectations for him are in the basement.

Growth from the top half of that group could improve their standing as the season moves on. But it’s hard to get excited about the talent Utah has accumulated relative to the draft capital they have spent.

Honorable Mentions: John Tonje

2024-25 Rank: No. 4

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Jaden Ivey (No. 25), Jalen Duren (No. 38)

Graduating two solid starter-ish players hurt their ranking. But when you have two top-12 players, the ranking could only fall so far.

A blood clot denied Ausar Thompson a stellar sophomore campaign. His brother gets a lot of the love, but they are on the same level in terms of defensive production and versatility. He’s bound to make several All-Defensive Teams over the course of his career. How high he can go offensively is a different question, but I’m inclined to think someone that athletic can carve out a niche.

I will not be surprised if I end up higher on Ron Holland II than Ausar by the end of the year. He’s another stellar defender with an infectious hustle that spreads to his teammates. What held him back was a legitimate scoring role. That outlook changed in Summer League, where Ron put up 21.7 PPG and 4.0 APG while shooting 46.7% from three. Not only is the shot looking better, but the drives are popping.

If he leaps offensively, the Flying Dutchman should start for the Pistons and become the second most crucial core piece of the team. He’s a way-under-the-radar MIP candidate for this season. Get on the train before it leaves the station.

Detroit’s rise has been fueled by youth. Having a true ace pairing of defensive wings could drive them from a frisky playoff team to a real contender for the East.

Honorable Mentions: Marcus Sasser, Chaz Lanier

2024-25 Rank: No. 1

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Chet Holmgren (No. 2), Jalen Williams (No. 4), Jaylin Williams (No. 70), Ousmane Dieng (No. 72), Dillon Jones (No. 100)

There’s no shame whatsoever in this drop. Last season, OKC was the runaway top spot in my rankings; the gap between the Thunder and the second-place Rockets was equal to the gap between the Rockets and the 11th-place team. Chet Holmgren proved himself every bit the defensive anchor and floor-spacer we hoped to be, and Jalen Williams was the second fiddle on a championship team. Oklahoma City’s only problem was the third-year cutoff, which also cost them Jaylin Williams, a serviceable rotation big.

Despite “losing” more players than any other team, they stuck in the top 10 on the strength of their drafting. I am higher on Cason Wallace than most and think he has more meat on the bone offensively. The mix of drives and shooting with his excellent perimeter defense screams false ceiling. Ajay Mitchell looked like a legitimate rotation piece last season, Thomas Sorber will surprise many (except our own Matt Powers) when he returns from injury next season, and Nikola Topić could be a piece after redshirting his rookie season.

Wallace is a starter on most teams with a lot of upside; combined with their trio of interesting bets in the 45-60 range, it’s no surprise they landed here.

Honorable Mention: Brooks Barnhizer

2024-25 Rank: No. 21

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

The Pelicans barely squeaked into the top 10 this season as one of the biggest risers. Despite Jordan Hawkins taking a nosedive last season, adding two top-40 prospects in the same draft gave them a significant boost. But it’s difficult to ignore the context, even in a context-averse ranking.

I love Derik Queen, but he’s a particular archetype as a drive-first big with defensive question marks. Playing behind (or next to) Zion Williamson, an identical archetype, may not be a good thing. I’m not inclined to think that those overlapping skill sets will be a boon for either player or the Pelicans as a whole.

Yves Missi is an undeniable athlete who showed serious flashes in his rookie season. But he’s not a spacer or a polished defender yet, calling into question how he plays alongside Zion and Queen. Kevon Looney is a great player to learn from, but I’m concerned with how the puzzle pieces fit in this frontcourt.

Jeremiah Fears is a great boom-bust bet for New Orleans. The size and lack of defense could limit his upside, but there’s potential for a legitimate offensive engine out of the backcourt. But GM Joe Dumars acquired Jordan Poole and Dejounte Murray in this offseason, two guys who take away his touches and utility.

The talent is here, and the ranking is the ranking for simply having the talent. But I have serious worries about how all three players can develop amid this train wreck.

Honorable Mention: Jordan Hawkins

2024-25 Rank: No. 18

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Ricky Council IV (No. 66)

The margins are tight in the 8-22 range; cutting Ricky Council IV in the offseason knocked the Sixers out of the top ten. But their lottery luck gave them a major boost. VJ Edgecombe has unlimited physical potential as a defender and rim attacker, and he’s looking to catch bodies left and right.

There have been a lot of playmaking flashes that caught my eye during the summer runs. I wasn’t particularly high on VJ in pre-draft, but he could rise quickly if some of his less-heralded skills start to pop.

Jared McCain is more of a health question than anything. His shooting was unbelievably good in his rookie year, and the potential of a McCain-Maxey backcourt is exciting. Sure, there are defensive questions, but a healthy Jared will flirt with top-five status by the end of the year. He’s just that good of a shotmaking talent.

Justin Edwards isn’t the sexiest prospect here, but he looked like a rotational-ish wing as an undrafted free agent this past season. The shotmaking and size alone get him a spot here. If he doesn’t take meaningful steps as a defender, I won’t be as high on him as a dependable piece, but there’s a foundation here.

Adem Bona was a tough cut. I did not think he had the phone-booth agility needed to stick on either end of the floor, but he looked like a serviceable innings eater at times. One thing is for sure: with Joel Embiid’s health, Bona will get some good run next year, and give us a better idea of what he can be.

Honorable Mentions: Adem Bona, Johni Broome

2024-25 Rank: No. 5

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Paolo Banchero (No. 3), Jett Howard (No. 79)

Graduating the No. 3 player from last season, Paolo Banchero, takes some shine off this group. But the Magic continue to build a strong base of supplemental talent behind Paolo, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and the newly acquired Desmond Bane.

Anthony Black as a sixth or seventh man excites me. Already a strong defender, he showed a lot of development as a floor processor and driver last season. Another step forward would boost Orlando’s rising contender status, and I am a believer in that next step. Jase Richardson was a good get as a day one backcourt contributor; it speaks to their depth that he may not have a guaranteed role out of the gate. The mix of athleticism and shooting paints him as a quality 3-and-D guard with the potential for more.

Tristan da Silva is another great piece who had a solid EuroBasket tournament alongside Franz Wagner. I want to see more from him this season as an older prospect that struggled with efficiency last season, but it’s hard to ignore the context of that 2024-25 Magic team being ruined by injuries. A full year of a bench role with a stable rotation could change his outlook for the better.

Noah Penda is another fun acquisition in the second round. Young, athletic, and lengthy with a strong defensive pedigree, he’s undoubtedly the longest developmental bet of these four. But hopefully, he can learn some things from Jonathan Isaac. No, not those things. Or those things. Actually, let’s keep him away from JI.

Honorable Mention: Reece Beekman

2024-25 Rank: No. 9

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Vince Williams Jr. (No. 41), Jake LaRavia (No. 45), GG Jackson (No. 52), Scotty Pippen Jr. (No. 53)

Memphis suffered a lot from graduation and general regression. VWJ hit his third-year cap, Jake LaRavia is elsewhere, GG Jackson II took a step back, and Scotty Pippen Jr. also graduated. But they still have a strong ranking due to their solid drafting record.

I’m unclear on the upside of Jaylen Wells, but he’s a No. 2 perimeter defensive option at worst who can knock down shots and move well. A lack of growth this season would be a cause for concern, but the floor feels safe. Not bad at all for a 39th pick.

Zach Edey sure has upside, but there are questions here. Is he too specific of a skillset to stick as an every-game starter? How serious are the injury concerns? And can he become a legitimate floor spacer and connective passer? I’m optimistic enough about these questions to keep him near the top 25, and he could be a riser here.

Cedric Coward could be another success story for Memphis drafting older wings. Their track record in that area speaks for itself. Still, there are legitimate worries about Coward’s performance against top NCAA teams, and my optimism for him is capped at the moment. But Memphis has proven me wrong before.

Honorable Mention: Javon Small

2024-25 Rank: No. 19

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Here’s the ranking that will earn me the most threatening DMs. Toronto should have a strong team defense next year, and the addition of Collin Murray-Boyles is huge. He has the potential to be their best defender sooner than later, and there’s plenty of reason to think the offense can keep him on the court.

He’s their closest thing to a blue-chip prospect; what to do with the rest of the roster is unclear. Gradey Dick has a lot of holes in his game, and the shooting isn’t popping as expected. Jonathan Mogbo has the look of a strong defensive big, but he’s undersized and has yet to carve out an offensive niche. Ja’Kobe Walter is in the strange space of flipping his prospect profile, looking like a strong perimeter defender while the scoring hasn’t quite translated.

There are outcomes where all three are rotation pieces. But there are a lot of cooks in the kitchen on this Raptors roster, and it’s possible those three need to be elsewhere to realize their potential. Still, all three of those players have shown enough to warrant placement in the middle and back half of the rankings. Also, shoutout to Jamal Shead, a real floor-slapper. I see you.

Honorable Mentions: Jamal Shead, Jamison Battle

2024-25 Rank: No. 8

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Bennedict Mathurin (No. 26), Andrew Nembhard (No. 31)

Both Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard were key pieces to Indiana’s Finals run this past season. Now they’ll be asked to lead the charge alongside Pascal Siakam as the Pacers navigate Tyrese Haliburton’s injury and Myler Turner’s departure. Some assistance from the young guys down the roster would be helpful.

Maybe this is the year where Rick Carlisle gives Jarace Walker a bit more slack. Despite his limited role, the former Houston star continues to be a menace on the defensive ride of the ball, while showing growth offensively. Knocking down over 40% of his career 240 attempts from deep, there’s a lot of potential here for a year-three breakout in his age-22 season.

I am certainly higher on Ben Sheppard than most. It was a rough rookie season that left him unranked on my board, but he showed growth in all aspects of his game while looking like a good rotation piece on a team that nearly captured a title. How he grows alongside TJ McConnell in bench units is of great interest to me.

Johnny Furphy still oozes athleticism, but I’d like to see him be more than an aura and hype moments prospect. Kam Jones may get some legitimate run this year in Hali’s absence as a sound playmaking guard who can be trusted with the ball in his hands. Whether or not these two can look like rotation pieces this year is anyone’s guess, but the potential is there.

Honorable Mentions: None

2024-25 Rank: No. 20

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Josh Minott (No. 94)

For a team coming off back-to-back conference finals appearances and still owing picks over the Rudy Gobert trade, Minnesota has done a very impressive job at accumulating talent.

Jury is still out on the Rob Dillingham trade, but he has a path to an increased role this season. They’ll need extra scoring punch as the combination of NAW’s departure and Mike Conley’s decline hits home. Dilly will have to compete defensively to justify a role, but if he does, that’s a potent sixth man for the would-be contenders.

Terrence Shannon Jr.’s breakout late in the season sure opened some eyes. I didn’t rank him last year due to his age and lack of clear niche, but he’s proven to be a rotation-caliber wing. The mix of defense and some microwave scoring ability could change Minnesota’s outlook if he can find some consistency.

I didn’t know much about Joan Beringer going into this draft, but the athleticism pops off the page. A raw ball of clay at the center spot, it was a shrewd move to prepare for Rudy Gobert’s eventual decline. Asking him to play a rotation role out of the gate could be a bit much, but he’s oozing potential.

Jaylen Clark may be asked to be the 1:1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker replacement, and he’s up to the task. A good shooter and strong point-of-attack defender, he could bring a lot of value this season in a limited role. Upping the three-point confidence and cleaning up screen navigation would raise him in the rankings.

Leonard Miller, I cannot quit you. Even though he only has 84 NBA minutes through two seasons, the athleticism and age-relative dominance in the G League keep the belief alive. Perhaps Minnesota will never find a spot for him, but one of these days, the 21-year-old will get a chance and pop.

Minnesota has done an impressive job at spreading out their prospects without overlapping skill sets, finding complementary players, and mixing upside bets with quick-to-translate talents. It’s impressive how Tim Connelly finds ways to operate within the budget constraints placed upon him.

Honorable Mentions: Rocco Zikarsky

2024-25 Rank: No. 10

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Keegan Murray (No. 6), Keon Ellis (No. 68)

It’s a bit concerning for me, personally, that the Kings find a way to draft my favorite players over and over again. Some serious self-reflection is in order.

I loved Devin Carter coming out of the draft, but the lingering shoulder injury concerns forced me to move him down. But he’s still a monster on defense at the point of attack, and has lots of potential as a downhill threat. If Carter can fix his shot, he could be a gem for Sacramento. However, Sacramento may have soured on him under new management; he’s going to be a second-draft darling. Good thing the Kings have never been burned by trading a guard picked in the lottery during his rookie deal.

Nique Clifford was another huge get. A do-it-all wing who doesn’t make many mistakes was just what this team needed. Even though he’s on the older side, Nique has a lot of upside to go with his ready-made skillset. That’s already popping in preseason after a Summer League where Clifford often looked like the best player on the court.

Of course, I can never quit Maxime Raynaud. I campaigned to pre-pre-draft him after his freshman season at Stanford; then he went on to average 20 and 10 in his senior season while shooting 35% on 5.5 three-point attempts per game. There are concerns here, especially on defense, but the tools are undeniable. A center who can average double-digit rebounds and take people off the dribble from the corners is a rare thing.

To quote Sacramento State beat writer Jack Dann, picking up Clifford and Raynaud in one draft feels like winning a raffle on the Titanic. But at least when the Kings get real and start showing some of their veterans the door, they have a trio of great prospects waiting in the wings.

Honorable Mention: Isaac Jones

2024-25 Rank: No. 25

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Things looked pretty rough at the beginning of last year for the Chicago Bulls. But they’ve certainly made some inroads on building up the prospect pool, and that starts with the rise of Matas Buzelis.

I wasn’t very high on Buzelis in his class, and he was the only ranked Bulls prospect last season, coming in at 59th overall. But what he’s done over the summer cannot be ignored. The scoring and defending potential is popping every night, and he’s learning more playmaking tricks. Already one of the fastest risers in my rankings, it wouldn’t surprise me if he has an ironclad top-15 argument going into next year. Just enjoy these preseason highlights.

I liked the Noa Essengue pick for Chicago. He’s the kind of player they should be developing, a young, toolsy forward with a high defensive floor. It’s not just raw tools, which burned them somewhat with the Patrick Williams drafting-then-for-some-reason-paying debacle. His path to real minutes is unclear, but the upside is.

I don’t think either of these guys will be good enough to free Chicago from their eternal play-in purgatory that Arturas Karnisovas so dearly loves. But that doesn’t take away from their talents.

Honorable Mention: Julian Phillips

2024-25 Rank: No. 23

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Now that Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are gone, the rebuilding of the Phoenix Suns can begin. And it’s going to be a lengthy process.

They got off to a good start with this past draft. Khaman Maluach, acquired in the KD deal, brings a serious defensive presence to the frontcourt with a lot of offensive upside. He’s got the athletic tools to be explosive on both ends of the floor, with plenty of reason to think he can space the floor eventually. I love the mix of upside and short-term utility that Phoenix got with this pick. He also loves dropping quotes.

Phoenix took good shots in the second round as well, selecting Rasheer Fleming with the 31st pick and Koby Brea with the 41st. Both are specialists with upside: Fleming as the defense-first combo big, and Brea as a long movement shooter on the wings. I came close to adding both to the top-100, and while they didn’t make it, the Suns do deserve a shout for that drafting process.

Ryan Dunn’s defense is undeniably valuable, but there are questions after the shot went off the rails last season. Being a 31% three-point shooter, 51% free-throw shooter, and only posting a 5.8% assist rate makes him difficult to put in a complementary role on offense. If he can find a real offensive niche, he’s a good rotation piece at a minimum.

Oso Ighodaro’s standing on this team got a lot murkier this offseason. The additions of Maluach and Mark Williams via trade make it difficult to see a world where he gets the minutes he got last year. I still see the defensive value here and some solid offensive contribution, but the unclear development path makes him difficult to project.

Phoenix certainly dug itself a hole in the past couple of seasons, and these players alone aren’t enough to dig out. But it’s a step in the right direction.

Honorable Mentions: Koby Brea, Rasheer Fleming

2024-25 Rank: No. 16

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

In a strange, roundabout way, the Warriors have found a way to reload this roster after the two timelines phase ended. The James Wiseman experiment failed horribly, and Jonathan Kuminga, one way or another, is on the outs in Golden State. They did turn Moses Moody into a solid rotation piece, but pouring time and resources into those two years of drafting did not pan out.

Now that this self-imposed pressure has ended, they’ve done a great job at filling rotation spots with limited capital. Brandin Podziemski is a starter-level player with plenty of upside. Not only is he an elite rebounding guard, but he’s shown a lot of potential as a shooter, defender, and secondary ballhandler. The Jimmy Butler acquisition unlocked his utility in a way they hadn’t seen before. I’m a big believer in Podz taking another leap as a scorer and locking in his status as Golden State’s fourth most important player.

Quinten Post was a huge surprise last season. He’s got a ways to go defensively, but the lights-out shooting as a true seven-footer is hard to ignore. They’re also getting some good production from Will Richard in preseason; a hard-nosed defender and shooter, he’s the kind of three-and-D guard/wing that Steve Kerr values.

They also have a couple of honorable mentions who could sneak onto the list. Trayce Jackson-Davis cracked the top 50 for me last season, then forgot how to make layups. An older big who can’t finish around the rim is a non-starter as far as prospects go, but if he rediscovers the touch, he can work his way back in. Not only does Gui Santos have incredible hair and infectious hustle, but he’s starting to knock down shots and gobble up rebounds. Both will get a shot at rotation minutes this season.

In 2023, the Warriors won in spite of their youth. If they get back to their championship ways, this time it’ll be due to the depth and upside their youth provides.

Honorable Mention: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Gui Santos

2024-25 Rank: No. 13

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Nikola Jović (No. 37)

Miami continues to make something out of nothing with their draft capital. Kel’el Ware was one of the biggest risers on the board last year; his talent is truly undeniable. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has rightfully brought up concerns about his professionalism and execution, but you don’t find his skill set often. Being able to stick alongside Bam Adebayo would be huge for his development, and the shooting will play a significant role in that.

It’s difficult to place a ceiling on Ware. I trust Erik Spoelstra to get everything he can out of the Kryptonian.

The fall from grace for Jaime Jaquez Jr. is tough to explain. The drives got worse, the defense regressed, and the shooting hasn’t developed. Perhaps he can find it again, but I’m not optimistic. Kasparas Jakučionis has his believers, but I’m not one of them. The turnover propensity and rough shotmaking aren’t a good sign for a player who already has athletic and defensive limitations. My belief in Miami’s ability to develop limited wings keeps me intrigued, but I wouldn’t place all my eggs in the Kaspar basket. He might go ghost sooner than later.

Miami may end the season looking awfully Ware-centric in terms of their prospect pool. But it’s not the worst thing to be dependent on his growth.

Honorable Mentions: Vladislav Goldin, Pelle Larsson

2024-25 Rank: No. 12

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Dyson Daniels (No. 9), Kobe Bufkin (No. 84), Dominick Barlow (No. 99)

Atlanta comes in as the last of the teams with real prospect capital. Graduating breakout star Dyson Daniels hurts, but they still have a starting-caliber wing in Zaccharie Risacher. Risacher has oddly become a false ceiling player; the defensive upside and potential for further offensive responsibility are underrated. His growth as a passer over the summer seems real. Atlanta doesn’t need him to be a superstar, but going from a solid starter to a No. 3-type option with real defensive chops would be huge.

I like Asa Newell’s defensive potential and nose for the ball as a rebounder. They need more athleticism from the bench, and he should be a solid understudy for Jalen Johnson. Reportedly, Atlanta believed in him enough to pick him 13th overall, and still got him 23rd after being offered one of the most lopsided draft day trades in history by the New Orleans Pelicans.

Most of Atlanta’s strength comes from second-contract young players, but they’ve done well enough to supplement positions of need through the draft. It’s going to play a role in their success for this upcoming season.

Honorable Mentions: Keaton Wallace, Mouhamed Gueye, Nikola Đurišić

2024-25 Rank: No. 22

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Max Christie (No. 77)

Leading the “I guess you have something?” tier is the Los Angeles Lakers. In a stunning turn of events, Lakers fans dramatically overrated a fine-but-not-great prospect in Dalton Knecht. He’s got tons of athleticism and is a solid shooter with confidence, but off-ball wings that aren’t stellar at anything in particular aren’t tough to find. Add in the fact that he’s a 24-year-old sophomore, you’d have a hard time making the upside case for “Westside Knecht”.

Adou Thiero comes in as my favorite Lakers prospect. Described by teammate Austin Reaves as “maybe too athletic,” he’s the dictionary definition of jump-out-of-the-gym athletic. I had him as a clear first-round talent, and getting him in the second round was a coup. With his raw offensive skillset and LA’s deep forward/guard room, it’s unclear how quickly he can crack the rotation, but he’s a great developmental bet with a very high ceiling.

Bronny James cracks the list after a productive summer. Refining his offensive game while continuing to look solid at the point of attack, he’s got rotational upside. Perhaps it’s me wanting him to shut up the nepotism-claiming talking heads and show that he’s a real NBA player, but the NBA tools are there without a doubt.

LA’s drafting record has not been good recently, but having a trio of decent rotation bets with one possessing massive upside is pretty good for a team on the LeBron James timeline.

Honorable Mention: Christian Koloko

2024-25 Rank: No. 24

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Ah boy. At last we arrive here. It’s hard to find words for the Nets.

I had only two Nets ranked last season: Jalen Wilson and Noah Clowney. Both had such rough years that I had to bump them off the list. It’s frankly impressive to have six first-round picks eligible for the list and end up this low.

Ben Saraf has interesting tools as a ballhandler and passer, with some great size for the point guard spot. Nolan Traore would be higher on this list if he was taller and a more consistent handler. Danny Wolf is a fun skill set, but there’s too many trap doors for him to fall through, whether it be the athleticism, defense, or shooting. Egor Dёmin needs the ball in his hands to make sense as a prospect, and I don’t think he’s good enough to demand those touches down the road. Drake Powell is pretty much just an athlete they’re trusting to develop in a chaotic context; I didn’t even feel confident enough to rank him above Ricky Council IV, another pure athlete castoff from the Sixers.

At the very least, Jordi Fernandez is a coach I trust to make the best of things. They have some solid bigs as a foundation. But the lack of veterans and series of overlapping skill sets only complicates things. There’s no need to keep piling on, as the “what is Brooklyn doing?” horse has been beaten so long it’s no longer recognizable as a horse. I will be watching this team with great interest (derogatory) this season.

Honorable Mentions: Jalen Wilson, Noah Clowney, Grant Nelson, Tyrese Martin

2024-25 Rank: No. 14

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: Christian Braun (No. 30), Peyton Watson (No. 56)

Finally, Denver has brought in some real veterans to lessen their dependence on the youth. But they still have a couple of decent bets.

DaRon Holmes II’s torn Achilles tendon not only ruined his rookie season but also made his long-term outlook very difficult to project. Thankfully, he looked like the explosive player we saw at Dayton during Summer League. It’ll take some time to get a read on his short-area agility, but I love how his athleticism translates as both a 4 and a 5. If the shooting is real, he can be a fun bench piece and should pair well next to Nikola Jokic in certain lineups. Imagine this touchdown connection with the best outlet passer in the game.

Denver’s over-reliance on Julian Strawther last season was a problem. Plain and simple, they ran out of players who could take and make threes. Now that Tim Hardaway Jr. is in the fold, he’s less of a necessity, which is good for his development. But the confidence and shotmaking ability give him a floor. If Straw can clean up the defensive mistakes, his role as a prolific movement shooter can pop for this team.

Putting more of their chips into veterans was the right call for Denver, as they improved their contender status without question. But it helps to have a couple of young bets in the wings; considering the draft capital they’re working with, I think they’ve done well.

Honorable Mentions: None

2024-25 Rank: No. 27

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Cleveland ends up having the oddest case on here. Understandably, a team pouring draft assets into their contending squad doesn’t have much in the cupboard. But you still have to make the picks from time to time. And I think they hit the Jaylon Tyson selection out of the park.

He didn’t get much run last season, but the athletic flashes were clear. The real eye-opener was his Summer League performance. Across three games in Vegas, the 22-year-old put up 19.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game. If he can shoulder more scoring burden and legitimately move the ball, they have a player on their hands. Heck, if the defense continues to pop, they’ve got a REAL player on their hands.

If there’s a place of need for Cleveland, it’s bench wing depth and secondary scoring punch. Tyson is in a good position to provide both this season and show off his upside. I think Kenny Atkinson will give him a real role out of the gate with Max Strus sidelined, and he may never give the role back.

Honorable Mentions: Tyrese Proctor, Craig Porter Jr.

2024-25 Rank: No. 26

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Another case of a contender devoid of picks that’s making the most out of things. Despite having little draft capital to work with, GM Leon Rose has collected some decent bets at the end of the roster.

Pacome Dadiet was a long-shot developmental bet in the late first round of 2024, and finally showed the tools during the summer. He’s got the baseline athleticism needed to be a combo forward, and showed some defensive chops before, but now the shot is showing up. And with the shot comes the drives; I’ve liked what he is doing as a closeout attacker.

If he’s buying into role player responsibilities, it’s a great sign for his future development.

Speaking of upside swings, Mohamed Diawara was doing some absolutely wild things in Summer League. He went from completely off my radar to a clear developmental star in the right context. I love a 20-year-old bag of tools 6’9″ forward; though he may spend the whole year in Westchester, he’s a name to monitor for the future.

Tyler Kolek was a decent bet for a backup guard, but it’s not quite going to plan. A sophomore 24-year-old guard should have performed much better in Summer League, but Kolek shot 35% from the floor and scored a hair over nine points per game. He snuck onto the list only barely, and may drop off unless some real growth was shown.

Ariel Hukporti was quite literally the last player I cut from the list, but you don’t get points for number 101. Even then, it wouldn’t change their ranking much. But he’s got some fun tools, and looks like rotation caliber minutes are in his future.

Honorable Mention: Ariel Hukporti

2024-25 Rank: No. 28

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Now we come to the “yikes” tier of teams. Milwaukee is making a case for the worst drafting team in the league. With Tyler Smith being waived over the weekend, it solidifies a brutal stat: no Milwaukee Bucks draft pick has made it to their second contract since Giannis Antetokounmpo. But we’re here to talk about what they have, not what they’ve missed.

Andre Jackson Jr. is a funky fit as a role player. He’s tall, long, and a strong perimeter defender in addition to great rebounding from the backcourt. But the fit is a difficult proposition.

AJJ is shooting 38.5% from three in his career, but he’s taking only 2.85 threes per 75 possessions. Volume is key to floor spacing more than efficiency, and the volume just isn’t there. They’ve experimented with him as a screener and cutting specialist, but nothing has clicked yet. And I’m not counting on Doc Rivers to get creative. There may be an okay role player in here, and he does have the defensive floor, but it’s a tricky proposition.

Honorable Mentions: None

2024-25 Rank: No. 29 (tied)

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

Last year, the Celtics were one of two teams to not have a player on the list. But they’ve done a good job at collecting intriguing talents in the last couple of drafts, and that starts with Hugo Gonzalez.

I had him pegged as a developmental wing bet when they took him at the end of the first round, but if this preseason has shown anything, it’s that his timeline might need to be moved up a big.

The athleticism looks like it’ll translate, his shot is workable, and I love the nose for the ball when rebounds are up for grabs. With Boston needing wing contributors this season, he should get a chance to show some stuff this season.

Amari Williams is one player knocking on the door of the top 100. He looked terrific during his fifth-year stint at Kentucky, and has an all-around game that could translate well to the center spot. Boston’s frontcourt feels wide open this season, and don’t be surprised to see him grab a role this season.

When you win a title and then win 60 games the next year, nobody knocks you for having little waiting in the wings. But I think Boston could jump out of the bottom tier with a breakout performance or two.

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Walsh, Amari Williams, Max Shulga

2024-25 Rank: No. 29 (tied)

Players Graduated or Lost from 2024-25: None

I’ve done this list twice, and both times I haven’t come particularly close to including a Los Angeles Clipper. Their drafting futility is truly the stuff of legend.

Here are the players they’ve taken in the last few drafts that would be eligible: Kobe Brown, Jordan Miller, Jason Preston, Cam Christie, Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Jahmyl Telfort, and Kobe Sanders. I only thought about Niederhauser and Christie as long-shot developmental bets here, but there’s a lot of ugly. Hand up, I genuinely did not know who Yanic was when they took him in the first round. Many of my more draft-centric colleagues didn’t even have him on their board, let alone their first round.

Without a first-round pick this season, they don’t have much of a chance of adding anyone to the pool this year. But, considering their drafting record, they wouldn’t make a dent in their ranking even if they did have a pick.

Honorable Mention: Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Cam Christie

Wrapping Up

Okay, that was a lot of typing, and I won’t keep you much longer. But this is becoming my favorite yearly exercise, one where my passion for player development can run wild. I encourage you all to do your own lists; it’s exciting to sit down and think deeply about what skill sets you value, how to weigh upside against production, and see how things shake out. I hope you enjoyed reading this and that your wheels got spinning as a result.

The post Ranking 2025-26 NBA Farm Systems From 1-30 appeared first on Swish Theory.

We are in the middle of the greatest era of parity in NBA history. With the Oklahoma City Thunder crowned champions, there have been seven different Finals winners in seven years, a new record; only once have we had five consecutive new winners. The days of the superteam and big market dominance are fading as chaos rules the contender circles. Projecting who is up next feels extremely difficult.

Even after a surprise Eastern Conference Finals run, the Pacers were not expected to come within one game of a championship. And they’re not the only surprise story in recent memory. The fifth-seeded Mavericks made it through the West last year. Everyone remembers the eighth-seeded Heat making it the year before, the third-seeded Warriors the year before that, the third-seeded Bucks the year before that, and the fifth-seeded Heat the year before that.

Granted, the line of delineation is strong. Four teams seeded fourth or lower have made the finals in the past six years, and all four lost. But we came so close to the exception this year. The point is that you can’t predict the future as you used to. Penciling in the Warriors and Cavaliers is no more. A surprise Conference Finals or Finals team is waiting out there, unknown to all.

I’m here to make the case that the Atlanta Hawks are the next surprise team.

The Aerial View

Okay, breathe. If you didn’t close the tab, you’re probably still laughing at me. I get it. The Atlanta Hawks? Contenders? In the National Basketball Association? It sounds ludicrous.

How soon we forget that these Hawks came within two wins of making the Finals just four years ago, when Trae Young scored 48 points on the road in Milwaukee to steal home court advantage in Game 1 of the ECF. I don’t blame you for writing that off as a blip: assuming Clint Capela walks in free agency, only two Hawks from that team remain: Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu.

The slate has been cleaned for a new iteration of that squad. The premise back then was simple: Trae’s ability to shoulder a colossal offensive load makes life easier for all the role players, allowing them to focus on defending hard and hitting shots. That premise hasn’t changed. But it comes with a new twist.

Bayou Bailout

Before getting into the construction of this team, it’s essential to acknowledge how we’ve gotten here in the last year. At this time last year, Atlanta was coming off a 36-win season. It was the third straight year their winning percentage had declined since that ECF appearance. Dejounte Murray hadn’t made the desired impact next to Trae Young one year into a four-year, $114 million extension. Things looked dire.

Then the New Orleans Pelicans stepped in.

Dejounte Murray was shipped to the Bayou in a package that included Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, EJ Liddell, and two first-round picks. The first pick was a 2025 Lakers choice that ended up 22nd overall, the second least favorable of New Orleans and Milwaukee in 2027. The last three players are all off the roster, but Dyson Daniels is going nowhere.

He finished second in DPOY voting in his first year with the Hawks. His breakout changed Atlanta’s fortunes significantly (if only someone had seen it coming!) That alone would make the Murray trade worth it. The way Atlanta used the picks afterwards only makes it look worse for New Orleans.

At the past trade deadline, Atlanta traded Bogdan Bogdanović for Terance Mann, Bones Hyland, and three second-round picks. That left them with Mann starting his three-year, $47 million veteran extension, an overpay for a low-impact wing. Packaging Mann and Georges Niang with that 22nd pick from New Orleans landed them Kristaps Porzingis earlier this week. Now they’ve gotten two impact starters for Murray, and still have a pick in 2027 to play with.

And, it may not be the worst trade for New Orleans between the two. During the 2025 NBA Draft’s first round, the Pelicans sent a 2026 unprotected pick and the 23rd pick to the Hawks for the 13th pick. Atlanta ended up taking Georgia forward Asa Newell at 23, who they were rumored to be eyeing at 13. And now they have a pick almost sure to be a lottery choice in next year’s loaded class at the top. The Hawks still came away with a useful rotation player and now own one of the most valuable assets any playoff-hopeful team owns.

To sum it up: by trading with the Pelicans, Atlanta turned Murray and the 13th pick into Dyson Daniels, Kristaps Porzingis, Asa Newell, a 2026 unprotected New Orleans first, a 2027 first from New Orleans or Milwaukee, and a second-round pick from the Celtics. That’s the rock upon which this Hawks team is built. The fallout from these two trades will echo for these franchises throughout the next decade or more.

Offseason Additions

Kristaps Porzingis was Atlanta’s big domino. I’d be surprised if they got a bigger name or impact player. That’s no knock on Kristaps; his +3.6 EPM last season was a 96th-percentile mark. He’s been in the 96th or 97th percentile four years running. But their powder remains dry, with many avenues for addition. But more on why he is a great fit later.

Atlanta had three primary weapons at their disposal this offseason: a $25M trade exception (from the Dejounte deal – gift that keeps giving), a $13M trade exception (Bogdan deal), and the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for $14M. They used those financial weapons to make some significant additions.

First and foremost, Atlanta used the Murray exception to pick up Nickeil Alexander-Walker. I’m not saying the Hawks read my writing, but that’s two straight offseasons where they’ve picked up one of my Finding a Role breakout candidates. Hawks, I’m on to you. The terms of the sign-and-trade are window dressing to fit him into the exception. They sent a far-off second-round pick. Well worth it to add a high-level rotation player without counting against the cap.

NAW fits so perfectly into the vision Atlanta is outlining. He is a confident shooter who is lights out from the corners and is passable from above the break. While turnover-prone, he is an aggressive passer who can make reads above expectation for an off-ball wing. I love his floor sense and the way he moves around to find spots offensively. And that’s not where his value comes from.

2025 was something of a down year statistically, but he is an elite perimeter defender. NAW had 94th and 98th defensive EPM marks in 2023 and 2024. He’s one of the best screen navigators in the league and gives Atlanta another exceptional perimeter defense option alongside Dyson Daniels. Atlanta hit it out of the park getting Alexander-Walker, and they weren’t done there.

Since this deal folds into a trade exception, they retained the full mid-level exception. That gave them room to add another rotation player, and they did so in getting Luke Kennard. Part of my offseason wishlist was getting a genuine shooter; few are better than Kennard. Few players are better at high-volume above-the-break three-point shooting than Kennard. He’s not much of a defender, but Atlanta has the infrastructure to insulate him, even as a bench piece.

It’s wise to get him on a one-year deal. Trade exceptions are significant, but the bill comes due the following year. Trae Young has a player option after the upcoming season, and Dyson Daniels also needs to get paid. Between Porzingis and Kennard, that’s over $40 million in expiring money. If this team doesn’t meet expectations, they have avenues to retool with or without Trae Young. But I am entirely sold on this team, and let’s get into why.

Pulling Elements from Contenders

Atlanta is pulling pieces together, but what is the vision? When I see the NBA Finals teams, I see two formulas the Hawks are trying to emulate. Let’s get into how they’re trying to imitate the Thunder first.

We all know the Thunder won a championship with elite defense. But the elements building that defense are interesting. They have tons of depth, going from an incredible defensive starting lineup to bench pieces like Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso. These players have size, enormous wingspans, and are super athletic. Most importantly, they steal the ball like crazy. OKC led the league in steals per game, fueling their transition offense where those athletes could get out and run.

You know who was second in steals? The Atlanta Hawks. Almost a third of those came from Dyson Daniels alone, who had the best pilfering season of the 21st century. This isn’t some gimmick one-off. Look at their new projected starting lineup next to Trae Young: 6’8″ Dyson Daniels, 6’8″ Zaccharie Risacher, 6’9″ Jalen Johnson, and 7’2″ Kristaps Porzingis. That unit averaged a combined 7.2 steals per game last season. Together, and healthy, I’d expect that number to go up.

The big element is how this benefits Trae. He’s a better defender than people give him credit for, but still not great. If your weak link can get steals on the ball or work in passing lanes off the ball while the other four cover up for him, that’s an additive value. It’s the same thing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander does for the Thunder. Granted, he’s about half a foot taller, but that’s the tradeoff for what Trae brings offensively. And that’s where the Pacers’ formula comes into play.

If you want to find the next team to win with pace, look at the Hawks. They were third in pace this past season. Trae Young’s presence will always boost your speed and playmaking; Atlanta also finished second in total assists per game. But it’s not about having one high-level ball mover; it’s about others that keep that flow in motion. After their offseason moves, Atlanta can have as many as nine players who averaged multiple assists per game.

Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels are good secondary ball movers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard both find the right swing passes. Kristaps Porzingis and Onyeka Okongwu have above-average feel for the center spot. The new additions can multiply this team’s collective court feel to create a Pacers-esque environment where everyone can pass in a pinch. Coach Quin Snyder should push this team to keep the ball moving after Trae or Jalen create advantages.

The secret to the Pacers was ball movement without carelessness. Indiana as a team finished third in assists per game with the third-lowest turnover rate. The Thunder were the same; though they didn’t share the ball movement prowess of the Pacers, they had the ball stolen from them less than any NBA team.

This leads to the problems the Hawks have to solve to attempt to emulate these contenders. They coughed the ball up a LOT last year. Trae Young is a very risky passer, and while it often pays off, it leads to a lot of transition going the other way. Atlanta needs to build an environment of smarter ball handlers so they can tip the transition scales in their favor. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, steals are only increasing in their value. If Atlanta can keep a top-five steal rate while getting an average turnover rate, they’ll have a huge advantage.

Atlanta checked every box on the wishlist. Kristaps gives them elite center size, will stretch the floor in high PNR, and can swing the ball. Nickeil Alexander-Walker gives them multiple elite perimeter defenders, increasing their depth and lineup optionality. Kennard gives them a lights-out shooter. And they did all this while staying under the tax and adding future assets. It’s an absurd coup of an offseason to get significantly better in the short AND long term.

Draft Additions

Luckily for me, we have a Hawks and draft expert on hand at the Swish Theory. Why talk about things I’m not as qualified to discuss as our own Ahmed Jama? So, here are Ahmed’s thoughts on the Asa Newell addition.

My favorite aspect of the Asa Newell pick (besides the additional draft capital the team acquired in the process) is that the team already has proof of concept with the role Asa projects to play. Newell is a relentless rebounder who finishes extremely well at the rim, projects to be a credible lob threat, and should be able to guard every frontcourt position.

For Hawks fans, this sales pitch should sound familiar and reminiscent of a recently departed Hawk, John Collins. Although the tail end of Collins’ tenure may have left a bitter taste in the mouth of fans who’d expected a more linear development in Collins’ finishing and decision making, Collins undeniably outperformed his draft position. And if Asa Newell could contribute close to Collins’ level during his Hawks tenure, this would be an undeniable win for the team.

However, a few roadblocks are standing in the way of Newell achieving the level of success John Collins was able to reach during his time with the Hawks. First, we must begin with what defined Collins’ tenure with the Hawks: rim-running. Even though Newell finished 19th in the country in total dunks (3rd amongst freshmen), he was far from an effective rim-runner this past season. Newell finished the season scoring 0.931 PPP (points per possession) on rolls to the basket, and was in the 23rd percentile in efficiency in the ‘P&R Roll-Man’ playtype.

When considering these numbers, discussing the context of the team Newell played in the past season is essential. Georgia had some of the worst guard play of any high-major team. Their guards were both ineffective as scorers and inconsistent as facilitators. This personnel, paired with a highly congested and stagnant offense this past season, erased clean rolls to the basket for Newell and drastically affected the degree of difficulty on these plays. But despite Newell’s inefficiency as a roller, he still managed to finish over 70% at the rim, which is truly impressive for someone who wasn’t a full-time big. Newell was so effective as a finisher because of his persistence on the glass.

Newell’s offensive rebounding prowess could also be a boon to the Hawks’ defense. While the Hawks finished as the 18th-ranked defense by Defensive Rating, they were tied for 21st in fastbreak points allowed. Opponents, not fearing the Hawks’ mediocre offensive rebounding unit, predicated on an undersized frontcourt, could leak out and rack up easy baskets in transition. Newell’s presence on the offensive glass should limit these easy fastbreak opportunities for teams and establish a more physical identity in the frontcourt.

Overall, while Asa Newell may not be the flashiest player for the Hawks’ long-term future, I believe he can be an integral member of a frontcourt rotation, becoming increasingly capable of augmenting Trae Young’s strengths and compensating for his deficiencies. Although the Hawks are still lacking in size compared to most NBA frontcourts, Newell’s range defensively and ability to play in the open court add to the identity of a team that finished 3rd in pace this past season, even without Jalen Johnson and his grab-and-go talents for a large swath of the season. Asa Newell is the rare draft pick who fits into both the best player available AND best fit categories for the Hawks. And putting my draft analyst cap aside for a moment, it is truly refreshing to see the front office make such a shrewd move.

Internal Growth

One crucial element to remember here: the youth of this team. Kristaps Porzingis is now the oldest Hawk at 30 years old. Kennard is 29, NAW and Trae are 27, Okongwu is 25, Jalen is 24, Dyson is 22, and Risacher is 20. The vast majority of this rotation is on the upswing.

Sure, Porzingis is getting bogged down by injury. Trae has remained at a fringe All-NBA level for years. Kennard is what he is. But the rest of this team has more meat on the bone. I am bullish on more offensive growth for Dyson Daniels and NAW. Jalen Johnson should compete for an All-Star spot as his explosive development continues. Risacher now has a year under his belt and can get more bench minutes. Onyeka Okongwu continues to get better as he shifts to a backup role.

If these players stopped developing, this would still be a strong team. And I’d be willing to bet that more of them will progress than regress. Development isn’t linear, but they have a great core that’s young and flexible.

I love how the Hawks have positioned themselves to make a deep run in the upcoming season and, if they’re lucky, for years to come. Get on the hype train now before it leaves the station.

The post Atlanta Hawks: The NBA’s Next Sneaky Contender appeared first on Swish Theory.

Small edges drive on-court play as well. A defense will tag a roller because that corner three shooter can’t make them pay the way the pick-and-roll can. An offense will hunt a switch to find a slightly worse defender for their best player to attack. A coach goes bigger to create rebounds, while another goes smaller to shoot more and run in transition. On and on the dance goes all game long, until the edges one team creates outdo the other.

But these are all defined by small edges. When a significant edge is discovered, it blows the game wide open. The Moreyball-era Houston Rockets are the best example of this. They eschewed the midrange game to maximize threes and layups; at their peak, in 2017-18, Houston took 47% of their shots from deep and 35% at the rim. Their midrange frequency was dead last in the league. In fact, from 2012 to 2022, Houston was dead last in midrange frequency in every single season. With James Harden at the helm, they finished with a top-10 offense every season. That revolution broke the game open.

The average NBA team in 2024-25 took 39% of their shots from deep and 31% at the rim. If you go back to the first year of the Harden/Morey pairing in 2012-13, the average was 22% from three and 36% at the rim. The midrange has cratered from the most frequent shot (42%) to the least frequent (30%) in just over ten years. That was the product of the three-point gold rush.

Now, every team is on the hunt for shooting. Guards, wings, and even some bigs that can’t hit shots beyond the arc are losing value by the minute. Everyone saw the light, and the big edge generated by the “dunks and threes” philosophy has become a small edge. Thus, the search for the newest big edge begins. And I’m here to tell you now, steals are the next big edge that will create a gold rush in the NBA. Let me explain.

The Hypothesis

For these purposes, we’ll be focusing on the playoffs. The end goal of all teams is to lift that Larry come June. So, unless stated otherwise, I’ll be using playoff stats to explain the value of the steal.

Per Cleaning the Glass (like all my stats!), the average transition possession in the 2024/25 playoffs is worth 1.14 points. Conversely, the average halfcourt possession is worth 0.96 points. Going even deeper, the average transition possession coming from a steal is worth 1.36 points. These numbers will form the basis of my thinking.

Pushing a normal half-court possession into transition qualifies as a small edge. Take the Indiana Pacers, the best pushers of live rebounds in these playoffs. Indiana scores 1.05 points per half-court possession, which is the best mark of all playoff teams. They score 1.35 points per transition chance off a live rebound, also the best mark in these playoffs. So, roughly, any live rebound they push in a hurry is worth 0.3 extra points per possession. That’s a strong edge when you add up their average mark of 32.7 defensive rebounds per game.

But Indiana didn’t add the most points per 100 possessions through transition play of these playoffs. They finished behind two other teams: the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. LA lost a tight first-round series to the powers of Nikola Jokic, so I can’t fault their process. Oklahoma City’s transition prowess has defined them all year and continued into the postseason. In addition to the second-most points added via the average transition possession, they have the second highest transition frequency behind only the Detroit Pistons (who have a third of the sample size).

This is where the steals come into play. OKC led the league in steals per game in the regular season, and has generated the highest turnover rate in this postseason. The formula that fueled them all year has put them three games from a championship: we are going to take the ball from you, and we are going to score.

Let’s do some rough math here—the Thunder average 10.6 steals per game in these playoffs and score 1.43 points per transition possession off a steal. For argument’s sake, let’s say two of those 11 steals don’t turn into transition, because I don’t have the money for the fancy sites that could tell me this. So, nine transition possessions per game at 1.43 PPP equals 12.87 points. Their Finals opponents, the Indiana Pacers, generate 7.5 steals per game at 1.38 PPP. Being generous and saying six of those turn into transition, that’s 8.28 points. Oklahoma City is developing 4.59 extra points per game in transition with their steal rates compared to Indiana.

And that’s not where the math stops. Remember that the average halfcourt offensive possession has been worth 0.96 points. Unlike a blocked shot, a steal is a guaranteed zero. Possession ends. Finito. So, if you’re the Thunder, a steal that takes away 0.96 points and adds 1.21 on average (12.87 transition points added divided by 10.6 steals). That’s 2.17 net points per steal leading to transition.

Alright, that was a lot of math. Take a breather. We have a bit more to get through.

A 2.17-point swing on a given possession is a MASSIVE edge by NBA standards. Let’s consider the small edges that teams look for again. The average NBA player shot 35.8% from three this postseason. So, the average three was worth 1.074 points. If shooting was your problem, you looked for upgrades. Let’s say a GM moves a player taking four threes per game at league average rates for a player hitting 38% of four threes per game. That’s an extra 0.066 points per shot, and 0.264 per game. Stretched over 82 games, that’s 21.65 total points in a season. Those are the margins we’re operating on here.

Now, I am throwing context out. That extra shooting edge may open up more plays, change defensive coverages against your primary options, and improve your points per possession in ways that are harder to quantify. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater here. If a steal can be worth two points, finding a player that averages 1.5 steals to 1.0 can add an extra point each game. The additive nature of each steal is far above any edge you can reasonably create.

Put it like this. Steph Curry took ten threes per game in these playoffs, making 40%. That’s 12 points per game for the greatest shooter in NBA history. If a league average playoff shooter took that volume, it adds up to 10.74 points. Gravity aside, Steph was worth 1.26 more points per game than your typical shooter. That’s worth less than the average steal. And there’s only one Steph Curry, and only one team has that edge. Plenty of teams can find a way to generate an extra steal.

The Application

Maybe you’re thinking this is junk math. I’m not Daryl Morey. I don’t know how to build complex data models to flesh out the values of each individual play. I’m a guy with a laptop and a premium stats subscription who watches a concerning amount of basketball. You can nitpick the math, but the critical assumptions remain: on average, the steal is now the most valuable play in basketball. Now the question becomes, how does this manifest?

Teams may try to find the next Dyson Daniels (a player I have written about time after time). The third-year Aussie went from bench piece on a middling Pelicans team to First Team All-Defense by wrangling three steals per game with the Hawks. That’s an astronomical number of steals, one unlikely to be repeated.

But let’s look at something more attainable: Alex Caruso, acquired for pennies on the dollar, is keying this Thunder defense. His 1.7 steals per game are worth 3.7 points to Oklahoma City this postseason.

There are other ways to get in on the gold rush. Point guards like Tyrese Haliburton, typically admonished for being “conservative passers,” may increase in value. He who prevents transition chances is as good as the man who creates them, in a sense. Teams may hunt for stellar transition defenders like Draymond Green, Andrew Nembhard, Derrick White, and Derrick Jones Jr. It’s no coincidence that some of the best transition players in the league are/were part of teams that have made deep playoff runs in recent memory.

You don’t need me to find evidence of the rising value of the steal. I constantly come back to the Thunder—in addition to their lead in forced turnovers this postseason, their offense has the second-best turnover rate. If Indiana were to beat them in these Finals, I’d bet on that win being fueled by transition and a shift in the turnover deficit. Just look at Game 3 last night. Indiana won the steal battle 13-6, scoring 1.25 points per transition chance off a steal. That right there swung the 116-107 victory.

The last great NBA dynasty was put over the top by three-point shooting. The next champion will be fueled by the steal.

The post Steals: The NBA’s Next Gold Rush appeared first on Swish Theory.

For this article, I interviewed Day’Ron about his journey and skills. I will reference that interview often. You can find it here.

After winning a Class 4A title as a high school junior, Sharpe transferred to the famous Montverde Academy. That 2019-20 roster boasts an incredible six NBA alumni. Four of them went in the 2021 draft: Cade Cunningham 1st overall, Scottie Barnes 4th, Moses Moody 14th, and Day’Ron at 29th. Caleb Houstan was picked 32nd the year after, and Dariq Whitehead 22nd the year after that. Suffice it to say, that is talent few other teams can match. Day’Ron asserts that no other high school could compete with them from any year. With a 25-0 record and 24 of those victories by double digits, they have as good a case as any team.

Sharpe went to UNC for college under the tutelage of Roy Williams. That squad possessed an imposing collection of talent as well. Armando Bacot, Garrison Brooks, and Leaky Black formed an impressive defensive trio in the starting group with a freshman backcourt of Caleb Love and RJ Davis, two future All-Americans. That left Sharpe as one of the first off the bench. Another future NBA talent, Walker Kessler, could only get nine minutes per game. And it wouldn’t be the last time Day’Ron had to sit behind more experienced players.

The 2021-22 Brooklyn Nets team that Sharpe was drafted to felt like a who’s-who of 2010s greats. Headlined by the trio of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving, this team was built to contend. Their frontcourt included LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, and Paul Millsap. Of all the greats on this team, Sharpe credits James Johnson as the most impactful veteran for his career.

By his own admission, Day’Ron didn’t have his mind right upon entering the league. He wasn’t the first to be there or the last to leave. He didn’t value winning the way he should have. Johnson took the rookie big man under his wing, taught him how to build good habits, and instilled a desire to compete. Four years later, Day’Ron is looking to pass that same spirit to a Nets team rebuilding from the exodus of Durant, Irving, and Harden.

It’s safe to say that Sharpe has dealt with as many changing circumstances and expectations as any fourth-year player can. Most importantly, he’s seen how to stick in this league in many ways. In this article, I’ll break down Sharpe’s strengths and limitations, potential growth areas, and look to the future for this restricted free agent to see where his game can fit best. Let’s dig into it. As usual, all stats I list are per Cleaning the Glass.

Offensive Overview

Sharpe set many career highs offensively this past season. He posted the most points and assists per game of his career. His free-throw percentage also jumped nearly 20 points to 79%. The underlying stats are more noteworthy to me. He took more midrange shots and upped his percentage from 37% to 44%. Sharpe tripled his three-point attempts and increased his percentage as well, from 25% to 28%. Most importantly, his assist percentage and assist-to-usage rate went up with his increase in usage rate.

Individual improvements are essential, but team context is everything. Brooklyn was 6.6 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Sharpe on the floor. That wasn’t due to some massive increase in efficiency, free-throw drawing, or taking extra care of the ball. It was due to Sharpe’s foremost skill.

Offensive Rebounding

When Day’Ron is on the floor, Brooklyn’s offensive rebounding rate increases by 10.8%. That’s the highest on/off OREB% mark of any player in the league. His offensive rebounding rate of 15.4% was a 98th percentile mark in the league. He brings it all: hustle, positioning skill, physicality, and jump timing.

These extra possessions Sharpe creates are immensely valuable. We’ve seen it as a theme throughout these playoffs. When efficiency bogs down and set plays go out the window, that guy who can create a second and third chance at the rim skyrockets in importance. Few players in the league create those chances the way Day’Ron can.

Rim Finishing

This is where things get spottier for Sharpe. In all four years, Sharpe has shot in the low 60s around the rim. He’s never been above the 28th percentile for bigs. Some of that is owed to the nature of his role; constantly tipping the ball around the rim leads to many misses. But there are also controllable aspects. Day’Ron has issues with loading his feet, finding proper positioning, and reading the rim protection.

I don’t expect Sharpe to suddenly become a 75%-ish rim finisher by cleaning up technical aspects of his game. He’s still going to have a lot of tip-ins go awry, and it’s in his nature to try relentlessly to get that final putback. Still, some work on positioning and loading his jumps would significantly improve these numbers.

Screen Actions

The 2024-25 season saw a ton of improvement for Sharpe in screen actions. He has a lot of utility on and off the ball, and sets great picks that free his teammates in a variety of situations.

I came away very impressed with his DHO game. Not only did he set strong screens, he made good passing reads and had a good sense of when to keep the ball and self-create.

His role as a DHO hub was crucial for a team lacking structure. So many new faces searching for offensive roles and identities. Sharpe’s ability to pass, screen, and make himself available for passes significantly raised this group’s floor. A play finisher learning to create those plays for others brings immense value to any team.

Odds and Ends

Most of Sharpe’s offensive value comes from screening, cutting, and offensive rebounding. He’s still finding ways to show skill in other areas, and I’m encouraged by his development as a shooter. He shoots an easy ball and the results have continued to perk up.

Day’Ron told me that the skill he is looking forward to developing the most is his shooting. Becoming an all-around contributor to the offense is paramount to his development. Another way he finds to contribute is in transition. Despite his hulking frame, Sharpe can move quickly in the open floor.

Watching his offensive talent grow with each passing game is a treat. At only 23 years old, it’s hard to put a definite ceiling on his growth, but I see him in the mold of Steven Adams with extra skill. Elite second-chance creation and screening talent can get you far. Adams grew a lot as a passer, but the shooting never materialized. Sharpe may find a way to be more of an outside shooter and DHO keeper threat. It’s the kind of offensive contributor many teams will be looking for.

Defensive Overview

Brooklyn posted a better-than-expected defense for a team that felt like an island of misfit toys. They finished 20th in total defensive rating, largely due to head coach Jordi Fernandez’s instilled competitive factor. The Nets deployed an aggressive style of defense designed to throw other teams off their game, and Sharpe was part of that equation.

With Day’Ron on the floor, the Nets had a 111.7 defensive rating. That’s a 77th percentile mark. Of course, a lot of this came from his best all-around skill.

Defensive Rebounding

Sharpe’s defensive rebounding rate isn’t as stellar as his offensive rebounding rate. A 63rd percentile mark is nothing to sneeze at, to be sure, but it begs questions. Those are largely answered by this Brooklyn rebound scheme, where Sharpe’s job was to find the best offensive rebounder and wipe them out of the play. His determination to box out was apparent on the tape.

I truly enjoyed his determination to box out the league’s most imposing players. Day’Ron said his favorite matchups are Ivica Zubac, Jonas Valanciunas, and the Pistons duo of Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren. It’s not just effort here, it’s technical prowess. He works hard to get inside positioning and push as far back as possible. In the worst-case scenario, he gets positioning and refuses to lose ground. Sharpe also uses a good leg bend to make any OREB attempts over his back futile. If he loses inside position, he’s excellent at pushing his man under the rim to reduce their rebounding radius.

There’s more meat on the bone with his defensive rebounding numbers, but the technique and effort are sound. The defensive scheme employed in Brooklyn on ball screen actions can explain some of this gap.

Pick-and-Roll Defense

As previously mentioned, Sharpe had three coaches in three years. That was before the hiring of Jordi Fernandez. Jordi brings a defensive style that maximizes Brooklyn’s athleticism. Bringing in an extra degree of unpredictability helped their defense punch above their weight and win some games they weren’t expected to. That included some aggressive ball screen coverages, with Day’Ron square in the middle of it. The blitzing and showing came with mixed results:

Often, the lineups came with Cam Johnson in the corner rotating to shut off the roller. He’s plenty capable of being a rim deterrent at his size, but that’s not the issue here. Problems arose from Day’Ron’s recovery speed and the angles he chose. This was not an athleticism concern – he’s got that in spades. It’s a question of decisiveness and efficiency in my mind. Before this season, Day’Ron spent far more time in drop, something he’s alright at doing. He does have a block-hunting problem that’s shown up in past tape. Plays like this one were all too common:

But there are the flashes of brilliance, where he chains it all together: play recognition, urgency of movement, precise angles and timing. And they look beautiful.

I don’t mean to imply that things will simply click someday and Day’Ron can become a consistently great ball screen defender. It requires a lot of reps and hard work to get there. But reps and hard work don’t get you superb athletic gifts. Pairing that hard work with Sharpe’s natural talent will take him a long way. It’s an area I’m confident he can build in.

Rim Protection

Sharpe encounters the same problems protecting the rim outside the action as he does in the action. He’s inconsistent with his footwork, load times, and chases blocks too often. I don’t want to harp on that further; instead, I will look at the possessions where things come together. Those are a sight to see.

When his feet are organized and his jump is well-timed, Sharpe has an innate ability to locate the ball at all angles. That kind of ball tracking and length covers up a lot of gaps as a rim protector. With more consistent footwork and positioning, in addition to cleaning up the windows in which he chooses to go for a block, he could be a serious asset at the rim.

Odds and Ends

I also enjoyed Sharpe’s transition defense. He loves getting out and running to commit the right fouls at a minimum. At best, he can contest multiple shots and get some impressive blocks.

I’d like to see more of that engagement off the ball in the halfcourt. He was too prone to losing cutters and being late to recognize off-ball screeners, which is a common issue for young players at all positions. The good thing is the engagement shows up in other areas; Sharpe needs to show the same commitment to stopping easy buckets that he shows when a rebound is up for grabs. That’s easy to translate with the right mindset.

Future Outlook

At 23 years old, Sharpe’s restricted free agency will be an interesting watch. The Nets have a lot of cap space, but things are in flux. They have Nic Claxton paid up as a true center, so the idea of paying two bigs that shared the floor for just 29 possessions (+31 net rating, just saying…) is worth inspection. However, trade speculation around Claxton has continued for years and could come to a head this offseason. There is a real chance Sharpe could leave elsewhere or end up back in Brooklyn as a starter.

These NBA playoffs did him a lot of favors. Physical rebounders and screeners like Steven Adams made a huge statement in the era of shooting and small ball. DHO runners and gap fillers like Isaiah Hartenstein have proven immensely valuable. Sharpe’s work ethic will jump off the page for any team interested in his services, and his desire to improve his skill set is noteworthy. As is, an elite rebounder who sets nasty screens and operates within the flow ot the offense has a lot of utility. An improvement as a paint protector, shooter, and rim finisher could take him to a new level. Watch out for Day’Ron.

The post Finding a Role: Day’Ron Sharpe appeared first on Swish Theory.

This may sound like I’m being critical, but I’m not. Long-term star injuries for contenders are rightfully watershed moments in NBA thinking, especially regarding team building. How can you not? The same moment happened when Kevin Durant grabbed his leg in Toronto during the 2019 Finals. And given the cascading effect of that injury, we were right to speculate wildly.

Although the Celtics are unlikely to experience the catastrophic post-injury season that Golden State went through, many of the same assumptions apply. The team won’t be contending this upcoming season. Their immediate window is over. Tough questions will have to be asked of the roster. The question for me becomes, can the Boston Celtics use this tragic injury to their benefit in the long run?

Key Assumptions

Those reading this most likely fall under the umbrella of NBA sicko-dom. You follow Keith Smith, you’ve opened Spotrac to check on contracts, and you can list CBA rules off the top of your head. You know, normal people stuff. The average NBA fan has some idea of how the salary cap works, but the motivations of NBA front offices/ownership groups and the avenues to accomplish their goals may be more of a mystery. My first assumption is that most people who wear Celtics hats don’t understand the ramifications of the salary cap.

The worst-kept secret in the NBA is that everybody fears the consequences of the luxury tax. Even Warriors owner Joe Lacob, with a franchise seemingly doubling in value yearly and a line of minority investors in Patagonia quarter-zips around the block, feared the tax. The Boston Celtics hit their tax window perfectly, setting up a two-year run of having Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White all paid their worth. That first season resulted in a championship. The second, as we know, was a tragedy. My second assumption is that no matter how these playoffs went, the bill was coming due, and a slash-and-burn salary dumping was coming this offseason.

But the dollar figure is secondary here. What matters most are the restrictions associated with salary cap overages. New ownership will want a clean slate upon which to build a new team instead of being beholden to the transactions of the old regime. This leads us to the number that will define Boston’s offseason.

$19,959,873

The second apron is the word you’ll hear a lot this offseason. That amount you see above is the projected dollar amount Boston needs to cut to get below that figure. The second apron is extremely restrictive for a team that will need to be nimble over the next few seasons.

First and foremost, it stops you from aggregating multiple outgoing salaries together in trades or taking in more money than you send out. As long as they’re above the apron, Boston cannot send out multiple players in a single trade, and their cap number can only decrease in any trade. This, by itself, is very limiting. On top of that, if you spend three out of five years in the second apron, your first-round pick automatically becomes the 30th overall pick. It also limits the future draft picks you can trade.

The goal of this new CBA was to promote parity around the league, spread the talent out, make dynasties harder to form over years, and engage every fan base. When you’re the Boston Celtics, having five players making $28+ million is like walking into a bear den with your pockets full of beef jerky.

Boston’s championship team was $5 million above the second apron, and this year’s team was $4.4 million over. Don’t just take this prediction from me: Wyc Grousbeck, the newly former Celtics owner, said it himself. Since the draft pick penalty rolls over five years, the Celtics would have their first-round picks moved to #30 in several upcoming seasons. They would need to duck the second apron for three consecutive seasons to avoid further penalties.

In short, if the Celtics don’t find a way to shed this money, they’ll be strung up by their ankles trying to improve this roster in the coming years. Jayson Tatum is 27 years old, Jaylen Brown is 28 years old, and the two project to have many great years of basketball ahead of them. This limitation on their roster-building capabilities would be tough to overcome. Now, let’s figure out how Boston can get under this.

One last number to consider here: 13. Boston has to enter the season with at least 13 players to meet the league minimum requirement. As things stand, they have 12 under contract for next year. So all moves will need to keep that target number in mind.

The Jrue Holiday Issue

Jrue is the first and foremost player in these conversations. This season was the first year of a four-year, $134 million extension Holiday signed after the championship run. They wanted to take care of him for the chance at back-to-back titles, but it has been clear he would be one of the first to go, especially as he declines going into his age-35 season.

This article isn’t about speculating who Boston can acquire; you’re all adults capable of working a trade machine. This is about the math needed for a route to cap relief. So here’s the breakdown on what Boston can do to whittle down that $20 million tax overage, starting with Jrue’s $32.4M salary.

Boston must take back at least 80% of Jrue’s salary in a two-team deal. Assuming they can find a deal to take back the minimum, whether one player or multiple, that would be $6.48M in savings. That’s roughly a third of the number needed. It gets even more interesting when you take three-team deals into account. The 80% rule doesn’t have to go all the way around. Boston can send Jrue to one team, then that team can send the 80% of Jrue’s salary to a third team, who can in turn send 80% of THAT salary back to Boston.

If GM Brad Stevens can make a three-team deal work at the minimum amount, Boston could take back a minimum of $20.74M. That would be $11.66M in total savings, more than half of the number needed. Assuming this gets done by acquiring two or more players, that would also put Boston at or above the 13 minimum required players. Now, we’re left with some flexibility and several ways to get the remaining $8.3M off the books.

Remaining Options

I will take a leap here and assume that neither Jayson Tatum nor Jaylen Brown will be dealt. That leaves a few avenues for the remaining money.

First, and most obviously, they can move on from Kristaps Porzingis and his expiring $30.7M salary. If Boston again takes back the minimum salary in a two-team deal, that’s $6.14M in savings. Expanding to a three-team deal, the Celtics could save up to $11M; only taking back $19.7M in the exchange. That could cover the tax amount needed, but something else comes into play: the upcoming draft. Boston owns the 28th and 32nd overall picks, and assuming they draft and keep players at both those slots, that salary would put them back into the apron.

There are avenues to overcome this. Neemias Queta, Xavier Tillman, and Jordan Walsh all have minimum-level deals that could be salary dumped into the cap room of another team, or traded for non-guaranteed contracts that Boston can then waive. But it would be tight and would cut into their 13-player roster minimum.

Another option would be Sam Hauser and his $10M salary. His contract is small enough to be traded into an exception or cap room for teams with cleaner salary sheets. That and some trades involving the minimum deals above would accomplish the task. This would be even tougher to navigate with the player minimums, however. Turning Hauser and one or more others into zero returning players would put extra pressure on a Jrue Holiday trade to include three or more players coming back.

I lean towards Porzingis being the solution here. His expiring deal and dip in play this year make him an obvious candidate. Hauser did have a down year, but he fits the system well and is on the books for four more years. Trading Hauser for other players wouldn’t accomplish much due to the tax problems. So, of the more obvious solutions after Jrue, Kristaps makes the most sense.

However, Porzingis and Hauser aren’t the only solutions to this.

The Nuclear Option

One assumption I’ve made up until this point is that Boston is making these moves with the intention of returning to the fray with the same core after Tatum is healthy. Their star wing pairing, plus Derrick White and Payton Pritchard, can all stay on the roster while they duck the second apron. That would almost certainly make them a playoff team in a weak East next year with Brown, White, Pritchard, and whatever they get back for the above trades.

But there are alternatives. What if Boston looks at Derrick White, about to turn 31 and begin a four-year, $118 million extension, as a potential negative asset by the time Tatum returns? After all, defense-first guards tend to fall off cliffs sooner than expected. Perhaps Boston thinks it can get out of the casino before going bust by trading White to a more immediate contender, getting a big haul of picks, and truly re-tooling.

Pritchard is another question. His four-year, $30 million extension is an absolute steal for the Sixth Man of the Year. His upcoming $6.7M salary wouldn’t solve the tax problems by itself, but that low salary would certainly up his price in a potential deal.

Perhaps Boston thinks it can trim the fat on declining or less essential players and try to run it back in 2026-27. An alternative would be to trade White, Pritchard, and Hauser in addition to Holiday for short-term deals and let Porzingis stick around. That would clear a whopping $83.8 million, and open up nearly $60 million in cap room for the season when Tatum returns.

It would be a whole lot of uncertainty. That level of teardown could rip apart the fabric of Boston’s culture. Even if the internal promises to Tatum/Brown indicate this isn’t a true rebuild, it’s hard to trust someone on their word if the results are poor. There is the risk that if you break things apart you may be unable to build them again. But it could potentially raise the ceiling of the team once Tatum is back in the fold.

Which Way, Butler Man?

If you’ve taken anything away from this, know that Boston will be saying some tough goodbyes this offseason. And that general manager Brad Stevens will have many ways to accomplish this.

The fans’ goodwill after this injury effectively buys you a season to do what is needed. The title expectations are on hiatus. Stevens could trim salary, retain the core, and acquire some flexibility. Or he can take significant steps to reload Boston’s draft picks and try to fill as many rotation spots as possible with draft picks, enabling them to take a chance on acquiring more star talent.

There are so many variables at play here. Does the core want to stay? Will Al Horford wish to come back to a team that won’t be able to contend next season? Can stud head coach Joe Mazzulla coach a 45-win team the same way he can coach a 60-win team? Is Boston willing to risk getting Milwaukee’d by seeing one of their outgoing players end up on a team they’ll have to face in coming years, as Jrue Holiday did with their team? Most variable of all, does Boston believe that Tatum can come back strong after such a devastating injury?

I’d be surprised if any team is more active in trade calls this offseason. It’s an unusual position for a high-profile team to be quasi-sellers with two All-Stars on the roster, but thems the breaks. When that Shams Charania notification about Boston trading a piece away hits your phone this summer, you’ll know why these deals are being done.

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Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

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The 7-1 start in the Jimmy era has certainly provided some answers. The team’s energy has returned, and vibes are undoubtedly restored. The initial numbers are positive, as the vibe shift translates to on-court results. Most notable to me is the discovery of a new lineup that has resuscitated their efficacy on both ends of the floor and could be a major tool come playoff time. That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

First, some stats for this lineup. It’s far and away the preferred Jimmy Butler unit since the deadline with more than twice as many possessions as the next lineup, and it is efficient. So far, the unit boasts a 114.7 offensive rating (57th percentile) and a 100.8 defensive rating (99th percentile), good for a +14 net rating that is 96th percentile amongst all five-man units per Cleaning the Glass (go subscribe to their service, by the way!). This is accomplished through their elite turnover and free-throw gaps, uncommon for this iteration of the Warriors.

This five-man unit boasts a 10.1% turnover rate (99th percentile) while turning over their opponents 19.4% of the time, a 94th percentile mark. The free throw gap is just as preposterous with a 22.3% free throw rate (90th percentile) and only allowing a 9.8% mark on defense, tops in the league. They also manage comparable eFG% numbers (50.8% to 53%) and offensive rebound rates (29% to 27%). Winning three of the four factors, and dominating two of them, is an excellent formula for success.

Now, more important stats: the halfcourt. Their 107.1 offensive rating in the halfcourt is a 95th percentile mark while generating a 94th percentile mark of transition looks. These Dubs are also holding their opponents to an 87.5 rating in the halfcourt as well. Those are numbers you can build on in the playoffs.

Alright, those were a lot of numbers. Unless you are completely new to my work you’ve probably guessed what comes next: copious amounts of film. I watched all 319 plays with these five players on the floor so we could learn what led to this early success and discern what is sustainable versus what can be exploited.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Steph makes a Warriors lineup entirely possible. Unsurprisingly, even at 36 years old, he is the bellwether of the Dubs. So for the sake of this article, I’ll work in a rough descending order of who dictates the success of this lineup. We’ll start with none other than Wardell himself.

Steph

The first 50 games of the season felt like watching a prolonged crucifixion on offense. Steph was sent out there every night to die for the sins of the organization, doomed to give his life just to eke out a passable team offense. With Jimmy Butler on the floor, that burden has been eased considerably, and the results show. He’s gotten his energy back and is attacking switches and isolations with renewed vigor.

Reducing the amount of players you can help off has given Steph and Draymond newfound space to work their two-man game. When the other three are a clear threat to score, they might be frozen on the right alignments and allow a 2v2 to unfold.

Still, Curry is going to see his fair share of double teams. The four-man unit around him has handled these chances well. A mix of good decision-making and various scoring tools has led to some great looks.

He’s the worst defender on the floor in this lineup. However, he can still funnel well, a tactic this lineup will utilize even more than normal Warriors lineups. The problem is that the 5-man unit is lacking in size before you even get to Curry, who is a couple of inches shorter than his compatriots. That problem shows up more in help defense and rebounding than at the point of attack.

All things have balance. Steph does more for the other four to get them good looks; it’s only appropriate that they have his back on the uglier end of the floor.

Jimmy

The Jimmy Butler acquisition opened up one of the deadliest actions this team can run. Split actions are common with many combinations of perimeter players and bigs, and Steph/Jimmy split cuts were expected to be a source of excitement. So far, the results have been exceptional for Jimmy, allowing him to get into the paint freely by using Steph’s gravity.

The reverse side of that is Jimmy’s driving opening up looks for everyone else. Driving and kicking or finding cutters is a great way to jumpstart the motion offense, and he seems to get it immediately.

This lineup has also buoyed the best parts of Jimmy’s game: driving and posting up. If you take away the ability to help early on his drives or properly double-team his post-ups, he will have clean looks in the paint all night and plenty of trips to the free throw line.

It strikes a good balance so far that takes advantage of Jimmy’s offensive instincts, size, and floor mapping. Accentuating his best scoring methods without over-exerting him bodes well for this team. It also enables him to make a major impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Jimmy’s skill as a rotator and rebounder with his size and instincts is impressive. He can make plays all over the floor while trusting the rotations behind him and the funneling skills in front of him. There have been moments where he feels hesitant at times, but he’s learning to get in the flow with 4 guys who have been playing together for a season and a half. It’ll come in time. For now, I’ll settle for some strong double teams and boards while he learns to play off the following defensive force.

Draymond

Whew. Nobody has been more invigorated by the Butler acquisition than Draymond Green.

We saw it early on how he’s been thriving again on offense working a two-man game with Steph and making plays when he’s double-teamed. It feels like the Dray of old. Sprinkle in some open threes and transition looks and suddenly he’s becoming a productive offensive player again.

The real standout here is how his defense has been transformed in this lineup. The trust he has in his rotations behind him and the technically sound containment in front of him looses him like the Tasmanian Devil on opponents. Here’s just a snatch of his elite rotation and help defense with this group:

No real change in his game to be noted in this lineup. It just feels like the Dubs are turning a giant dial that says “Draymond Green” to the max and looking at the audience for approval.

Podz

Now is when things get interesting. The star trio coalescing and playing well is a pleasant development but not necessarily a surprising one. A guy who’s been struggling all year turning into a high-level starter seemingly overnight is eye-opening. What has impressed me the most is how Podz has begun to capitalize on his defensive potential with this unit, making a huge impact with his funneling skills first and foremost.

Funneling your man out of the middle and into the help of Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody is a great formula to stay in the lineup defensively. Some outright stops or trail blocks will be welcome. He’s made an impact with his double teams too, blowing up actions left and right while maintaining good hands off the ball to generate steals. But the most important thing he brings to this lineup is the rebounding prowess from the guard spot.

Draymond, Moses, and Jimmy will throw around some hard boxouts, enabling Podz and Steph to come in and clean up the glass. They’re rebounding very well as a unit (more on this later) and Podz is a key cog in that equation. His size and nose for the ball have always produced strong rebounding numbers across several levels of basketball, and it’s much needed to make this unit work. If you want to read more about Podz’s talents as a rebounder, I wrote about it last year.

Offensively, he’s doing an excellent job at filling gaps. He’s the third most versatile scorer in this lineup behind Steph and Jimmy but has a lessened burden to contribute. That gives him the range to focus on his defense while finding ways to contribute as a shooter, closeout attacker, cutter, screener, and transition weapon.

That last part is the most important to me: transition. This lineup has managed to create a 98th percentile transition offense frequency, yet their 1.00 PPP mark in the open floor is abhorrent, to say the least. They desperately need someone to trigger good looks for others and find spots to pick for their shot. Podz’s passing and finishing talents mixed with youthful energy and his halfcourt defensive positions bode well for transition success.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Podz in these lineups going forward. The quality of his play might be the most important tipping point given his past inconsistencies and specific skillset. Here’s hoping he continues to thrive with these four.

Moses

It speaks a lot to the talent and cohesion of this lineup that Moses is arguably the fifth starter here, yet remains very impactful. The Dubs are now up to 11-0 this year when Moses starts a game and 21-27 otherwise. That’s not just happenstance.

Within this lineup, Moses is the most accomplished perimeter defender. His length and footwork combo, with some solid funneling instincts, makes him outstanding against most matchups. Podz and Steph can funnel well but are unlikely to stop a drive outright. Moody can do that or make a drive so dire that the driver is extremely vulnerable to help.

His size also leads to different usages when off the ball. He’s more than capable as a low man rotating or boxing out for rebounds and crashes well after shots go up. The athleticism makes him a defensive threat in transition as well, a large reason why this lineup has successfully closed down transition chances at a high rate.

I’ve especially liked seeing his synergy with the help in these lineups; defending in tandem with Draymond or Jimmy has produced wonderful results.

When you are taking on tough assignments, 75% of your floormates being experienced veterans helps a lot with your trust and confidence. This lineup unlocks a level of defensive intensity he has not discovered before.

On the offensive end of the floor, he holds similar responsibilities to Podziemski with slightly less handling. Shoot when open, crash the glass, screen, cut, and get to work in transition. Per usual he’s done a great job at all aspects of his role.

Moody has always been great at playing within himself offensively. As the 4th/5th scoring option in this lineup, he won’t take chances away from others by forcing things and capitalizes well on the chances given to him. If he can mix in some quality drives and glass crashes, he can be more than a 3-and-D player, which is all they need him to be in the first place.

Team Play and Strategy

As previously mentioned, funneling is a fundamental Warriors tactic. Double teams and icing the pick-and-roll play into that equation as well. They’re comfortable in rotation as a defense so forcing the issue is a benefit. It’s led to some wonderful moments of team defensive play in the halfcourt.

The team transition scoring has been tough, but transition chances are a goal with their 94th percentile transition frequency. The poor results have largely come from hesitancy as this less-than-speedy lineup is not pushing things hard. Yet there have been some moments of great team play in transition that I’ve enjoyed greatly.

What’s more absurd is that despite the lowly offensive rating in transition, this lineup manages to boast a +15.8 net rating in transition so far due to a wild 84.2 DRTG in the open court. There have been moments of brilliance, largely by Draymond Green. However, this looks like a bubble ready to pop. They’re allowing a high frequency of transition looks off live rebounds and have been burned by simply being too tired, not athletic enough, or not attentive enough.

This is certainly a playoff-intensity sort of lineup, and the concern is lessened come April but not gone entirely. They’ll need to continue limiting turnovers and picking offensive rebound opportunities well to limit the transition chances. Draymond can paper over a lot defensively in the open floor but he cannot do everything. Finding a way to keep chances low and relatively covered will be paramount for their success.

A last strategy point that may prove a weakness is the size. As previously mentioned, they have nobody taller than 6’7″ in this lineup, and it brings a host of weaknesses. They’ve been susceptible to offensive rebounds and post-up chances by the league’s taller players.

They need to be crisp with their double teams and help to deter these bigs on the block and rebound well as a team to maintain some control. They can control the floor horizontally with their ability to fly around and pack the paint, but you can only control so much vertically. The tallest trees soak up the most sun at the end of the day. Luckily, there have been lots of great team rebounding moments with this lineup:

On the whole, this lineup is extremely good despite these flaws and has ways to control these flaws. There’s a lot of season left to play but I’m keeping my eye on this grouping. Last night’s game against Orlando was a wake-up call of sorts, and the first time this lineup hasn’t closed a close game since the trade deadline. When teams throw two bigs at them and begin controlling the paint, countermeasures have to be deployed. Will it be the same when they come up against Oklahoma City’s twin towers, or Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

Flaws will be managed in the long run. They may have unlocked a lineup that could carry them up the Western Conference standings and put the fear of God into a team in round one. From there, who knows how high it could take them?

The post Warriors Unlock New Deadly Lineup? appeared first on Swish Theory.

For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

That being said, not much of this tank’s return has shown. Shaedon Sharpe was the first major draft pick of this new era, and though he’s flashed potential, his injury concerns and limitations bring up questions. Scoot Henderson was supposed to be the franchise’s cornerstone but faces an uphill battle to be a productive player in the league, let alone live up to his potential. Donovan Clingan was a great prospect but hardly projected to be a centerpiece.

In the spirit of piling on, the non-draft picks haven’t panned out either. Anfernee Simons is at least staying healthy but has regressed somewhat. Jerami Grant, the last holdout of the Dame era besides Simons and Sharpe, has failed to generate enough trade interest to be moved. The same can be said for DeAndre Ayton. Grant is 30, Ayton is 26, and Simons is 25. Despite that, it’s hard to feel good about any of them as players who can be around for a future successful iteration of the Blazers.

It’s not all dire. The Deni Avdija acquisition was a shrewd move that should pan out in the long run. Robert Williams III has managed to recapture some of his value and could fetch them something decent in a trade. But what excites me most about Portland’s rebuild is that the third player they acquired in the 2023 draft has been the best of the trio.

Enter Toumani Camara.

More than used to being an afterthought in his basketball career, Camara was a footnote in the gargantuan Damian Lillard-Jrue Holiday-Ayton-Jusuf Nurkic deal. Portland decision-makers coveted the three first-round picks and the cadre of tradeable veterans they got from the teardown, not the four-year college player taken with the 52nd overall pick. Yet he may be the best thing they got out of the deal.

Let me show you why.

Offensive Overview

For those of you following this series, it’s hardly surprising I have found yet another defense-first wing searching for an offensive role. Peyton Watson, Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Bilal Coulibaly, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have all featured thus far. Yet all of them save Watson had some sort of established offensive identity. Watson has yet to find any. So I wanted to focus on a player finding an interesting way of contributing offensively. It starts with the most boring off-ball skill.

Shooting

Camara is primarily stationed as a corner shooter in Portland’s base offense, taking nearly half of his perimeter looks from there. Their general lack of shooting as a team forces him to lift above the break more often but that’s been fine up to a certain point. Camara is hitting 36% of his above-the-break looks, a hair above his 34% mark from the corners, and looks confident.

Portland has real spacing issues to work out as a team and I don’t see Camara as the long-term spacing outlet. But for his role as a big wing playing off primary creators, he’s doing a fine job. The increase in three-point volume from last year to this year has been promising and I hope it continues as coach Chauncey Billups grooms him for a role as a fifth offensive option in the long run.

Finishing Questions

Camara may be passable from the perimeter, but it is considerably more problematic in the restricted area. His 59% mark at the rim is a 30th percentile mark for wings, and the 32% mark in the short midrange is a tough 27th percentile mark. It’s not for a lack of trying on his part. Camara generally resides in the upper quartile of wings on rim FGA percentage in addition to roughly half of his rim attempts being self-created. Typically, his finishes on the drive look like this:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t show off some of the good. Sometimes it looks very good and makes you excited.

Mostly what we have here isn’t a confidence problem; Camara isn’t afraid to go at anyone, finish with either hand, or try audacious looks. What we mostly have here is a decision-making problem. Sometimes it’s not about how you finish, but when you choose to. This shows up more when we look at his playmaking off the drive. Again, some of it does look good!

But the bad patterns are there in spades. Running right into charges, jumping in the air without a plan, being early or late to passing windows, and failing to recognize help points. There’s a reason his turnover percentage is around 15% for the second straight year, despite single-digit assist rates and a usage rate in the low teens.

What’s important to me is that despite the generally poor results, Portland’s coaching staff is perfectly fine letting him work the kinks out. That confidence seems to manifest in Camara’s brazen manner on the drive. The shooting has potential and Billups is more than willing to see if Toumani can make other contributions to the offense by putting the ball on the deck. Only time will tell if loosening the reins can bear fruit.

It’s not the only way Portland has endeavored to find out how Camara can play a role.

Leveraging Athleticism Off-Ball

At a solid 6’8″ with 220 pounds of muscle, Toumani’s height and size benefit him as a shooter and driver. Portland has begun to ask, why not test him out as a screener?

For a guy with decision-making issues, screener usage has allowed him to narrow the tree of decisions. Once he sets a good screen and rolls, the choices are fairly simple: find the finishing angle or kick out to shooters and cutters. Camara has looked much better with this narrower set of decisions.

The PPP on his roll man possessions has jumped from 0.88 last year to 1.125 this year, a noticeable jump that reflects the tape: Camara is learning to make better choices. The good mix of passes from the roll is encouraging to boot. As the league spreads out and trends to diverse sizes and skills, a big wing that can effectively screen and roll is a great tool.

Camara also presents some good cutting instincts, and though the iffy finishing remains an issue when playing below the rim, he’s more than capable of finishing above the rim spectacularly.

As a guy taking on tons of primary defensive assignments, it’s admirable that Camara gets out in transition with good frequency. Again the finishing issues persist unless he can get vertical, but some of the results have been enjoyable.

For the second year running, Camara is a 90th percentile or better offensive rebounder for a wing. Not only does he have the size and vertical athleticism, but Toumani also hustles hard for putbacks and tip-outs. Despite his struggles finishing on the drive, he often shows special hand-eye coordination with his tip-ins. Throw in good instincts on when to put the ball back up and when to kick it back out and you have one of the premier second-chance creators and finishers from the perimeter in the whole league.

The shooting is passable, the screening and cutting are solid, and the offensive rebounding is outstanding. Overall, this adds up to a pretty useful off-ball player in the proper context. Hopefully, time will allow Portland to add more offensive creators and find better synergy or player fits over the next few years to place Camara in a better offensive setting to leverage his talents. In the meantime, they might as well let him take threes, set screens, and endure some rough drives to figure out how much untapped offensive potential resides within Toumani.

Defensive Stud

Much like Bilal Coulibaly in Washington, Camara is the young defensive perimeter bludgeon a tanking team uses to bother their opponent’s top option. The versatility on display from Toumani is rather unique, even amongst the best defenders in the league. Since the beginning of last year when I began to studiously watch his tape, I jotted down a rough list of players I’ve seen him take on as primary assignments for at least chunks of a game, if not a whole game.

That’s a pretty good visual of what it looks like to be thrown in the fire. What’s crazy is that he has looked more than capable of handling it. Enjoy 100+ games’ worth of Toumani making life hard on, or completely shutting down, his massive range of assignments on an island.

His +1.2 D-EPM mark from last season numbered amongst the elite, especially impressive given that EPM factors in context, so the weight of playing on a 21-win team only makes it more noteworthy. He’s suffered slightly in his numbers as Portland’s defense somehow gets worse. Still, we are watching one of the better perimeter defenders in the league here, and few can get around this guy. There’s only one hole in the perimeter game I keep my eye on: speed.

Some handlers can turn on the jets and give Toumani issues. Given his prowess and technical attention to detail, a little tightening up of the footwork preparedness would put him in trail block positions more often, or create outright stops. It’s well within his skillset to close this gap with reps.

Rotation Questions

It’s not uncommon for young players to be far more attentive and effective on the ball than off it. But with so much of the game happening away from the ballhandler, those lapses in focus and technique will burn you now more than ever. Someone as effective on the ball as Toumani will be avoided as his reputation builds, so attacking him off the ball becomes necessary. Camara has failed to bring that same intensity to his off-ball game.

He’s missing rotations, losing cutters, offering weak help, and moving at inopportune times. All things that can kill a defense in rotation, especially given the talent Camara often finds himself covering.

Darrelle Revis was the best at what he did because he was in your jersey every play until the ball hit the turf. Wise quarterbacks looked away from him early, but the best of the best were testing his attention all game long and he hardly ever lapsed. Toumani will be forced to step up his attention in the coming years. Luckily, there has been an uptick in the current season.

His block and steal rates have remained steady as he continues to be a strong event creator on and off the ball, and his ability to switch has played a major role in the elite steal rates. Setting a screen good enough to take him off the ball puts his long arms in passing lanes of all kinds, something he relishes.

Don’t get me wrong, Toumani being a lockdown perimeter option is the most important developmental goal. Eventually, those players will want to iso or call for a ball screen and Toumani will be there. But in the times he’s off the ball, waiting for those opportunities, he will need to ensure he doesn’t get burned with cuts, off-ball screens, and long closeouts. Tightening up his rotational defense would truly make him the whole package on the ugly end of the floor, and a potential All-Defense candidate in coming years.

Looking Forward

The usage patterns throughout the season will be interesting to monitor offensively, especially if Portland undergoes further selling at the deadline to clear out minutes and touches. I hope to see the shooting numbers stay solid and further development of his decision-making on the drive, possibly coming from his chances as a roll man. Any sort of improvement as a threat around the basket would be a welcome sight.

Defensively, I’ll be watching how he handles speedy guards to see if his few gaps can be closed on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing more of his chops against the toughest assignments. The signs in rotational and off-ball defense have been good, but I want more consistency from an already outstanding defender. He’s got the potential to be a world-wrecker from the wing spot. The last time I wrote about a young wing needing to strive beyond excellence, I got to watch Dyson Daniels deliver on his promise in Atlanta and put together what will surely be an All-Defensive nod. I see that same potential in Camara.

Chin up, Portland fans. Rebuild is about finding one guy at a time, and Toumani is very much a guy to bank on for years to come. Someone who makes their teammates look good as Camara does will be a welcome presence for whoever can lead Portland into the future.

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