On July 1st, 2022, Aaron Nesmith had a major change in his outlook.
After being a lottery choice by the Boston Celtics and beginning to establish a rotation spot at the end of his sophomore season, he was dealt over the offseason to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for current Trailblazers guard Malcolm Brogdon. Not only did he have to change cities, but a particular tweet set something off inside him.
In the reactionary culture of disrespect and inhumanity that is NBA aggregation social media (led by the bright minds at Bleacher Report, in my opinion), a former lottery pick beginning to break out was boiled down to a Spongebob meme.
Nesmith took this personally, determined to make Bleacher Report look silly for the disrespect they sent his way.
As he begins his second season in Indiana, having secured a 3-year/$33M contract extension, Aaron Nesmith is far more than a paperclip and some string.
Offense Overview
Nesmith is beginning to see a defined offensive role with an up-and-coming Indiana squad. He’s the guy who occupies the corners as a shooting threat, relocates and lifts to the wings when the offense calls for it and slashes to the rim if the defense sells too hard to stop his shot. His shot chart on Cleaning the Glass reflects this development of his role:
He’s been firm from deep since arriving in Naptown: 39.3% from the corners on 168 attempts, and 36.6% on 194 attempts above the break. That’s not going to break the defense by any means. But when teams are keyed in on Tyrese Haliburton‘s on-ball creation and Buddy Hield‘s off-ball movement, a strong corner guy who can lift is an important complementary piece. Let’s look closer at how his shooting role has blossomed.
Developing Shooting Versatility
It’s important to start with the form. Nesmith has quietly turned up the speed on his shot, moving from 1 to 1.5x speed like an ADHD-laden podcast listener. This has opened up a further tree of shots he can get off as the contest arrives.
Jordan Poole is sagging slightly off Nesmith in the corner, but it’s still a tight window to get the release off before the shot contest arrives. The speed of the release works to create a more open shot that a slower gather would turn into a contested one.
He doesn’t necessarily have to hit the turbo button on ALL of his releases. When he has an extra beat to step into a shot, he knows when to take it in order to compose himself.
Beyond spotting up from the corners and the occasional spot-up wing 3, Nesmith shows a knack for when to lift and relocate, opening himself up to easier passes and making reads simpler for the ballhandlers.
The initial Myles Turner screen for Buddy Hield‘s flare gets nowhere with Jevon Carter blowing it up, so they flow into a middle dribble handoff with Nesmith in the strong corner. Drummond plays in a higher drop, meaning DeMar DeRozan will tag from the strong corner. Aaron reads this fluidly, knowing that lifting from the corner will create an easier read for Hield. If he stuck in the corner, DeRozan would have a chance of deflecting the pass. Even though the shot is missed, that is quality process from a young wing to make life easier for his cohorts.
Here’s another example below of reading his man and how to manipulate:
With Georges Niang guarding him, both Nesmith and Jalen Smith realize a little movement can go a long way. Smith comes to set the flare as the offense begins to flounder, timing it well with the Bruce Brown middle drive. Tristan Thompson, not known for being fleet of foot, is unable to get out to get a quality contest as Niang dies on the screen. Cash from the break.
I’ve also enjoyed what Nesmith’s shooting combined with his functional strength as a screener can open up for the offense. Here’s another possession taking advantage of the Georges Niang matchup, this time directly in the action:
Niang flashes on the ball to deter Haliburton and let Isaac Okoro, knowing he will get destroyed if he fully switches the screen. The good screen forces a long flash, and Nesmith fades across the top of the arc, drawing a long closeout from Niang in recovery. A nice jab step makes Georges think about the drive, opening up a clean look that he bottoms. That’s some excellent leverage of his shooting ability to accentuate the danger that Tyrese brings to the floor.
Here’s a different example of screening for Haliburton in order to test the switching of the defense. Charlotte likes switching with their smaller lineups and is also determined to deny Haliburton’s scoring. With the side cleared for the screen action, Nesmith comes to screen and fades to the corner. PJ Washington doubles early trying to help out LaMelo Ball, so Hali floats it to the corner as Mark Williams is forced into the long closeout (due to the cleared side). Nesmith has time to compose himself before splashing from the corner.
Though he doesn’t exactly have a long leash to handle on the ball, there are small glimpses of dribble threes when called for. With former Vanderbilt teammate Darius Garland trying to close him out in the corner, Aaron sees the desperation closeout coming and uses a slick dribble relocation to get himself a better shot:
Nesmith doesn’t have the most prolific midrange game (36th percentile amongst forwards last season), but he shows quality coordination and a package of moves to get there when the offense calls for it. Even if it’s just 1 shot per game on average, it serves to keep the defense guessing.
Granted, we are only 1/8th of the way through the season, but a scorching 46% mark from deep (54% corners, 38% ATB) is going to force defenses into some tough decisions. He’s exploring what he can do off movement and relocation to boot, a great sign that we are headed for a breakout perimeter scoring season. It also serves to open up what has been the most impressive part of his game:
Loud Drives
Going into this article, I really expected to see a mixed bag here. I was absolutely floored by what I saw on the tape. You rarely expect a “closeout attacking” guy to pop, but my eyes were flying at the screen like a Looney Tune.
What struck me the most was the incredible balance he shows while flying into the paint from the corners, often at full speed:
Navigating the baseline without taking charges and getting these kinds of finishes impressed me to a high degree. I couldn’t find drives where he pressed too hard or predetermined when he was going to drive either, which is a major sign. He’s quickly reading and reacting to how the defense plays his shot and choosing his spots to drive based on those reads.
That kind of selectivity was also present on non-corner drives. He knows when to press his advantage against an unsettled or subpar defender, and has enough handle to beat them:
Catching Jaylen Brown (he’s not a good defender – wake up, sheeple) flat-footed and drawing the foul is impressive. Going after Kristaps Porzingis with the rim protection drawn out and using the rim to shield a tough reverse finish is superb awareness and execution.
Nesmith’s creation off the drive (creation in general, really) doesn’t jump off the page. He has one of the lowest assist rates amongst all forwards, but there are momentary flashes of playmaking excellence based on how the defense defends his drives.
There are moments where the aggression delivers something spectacular, as you see on this corner drive:
Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has leveraged this success on the drive into quick, repeatable offense for Nesmith by running dribble handoffs. Giving Aaron momentum and playing off the leverage that his shot creates has generated some very nice results so far in the young season.
Notice how the “delay” action from Jalen Smith clears a side for the handoff, putting the potential help right in front of Nesmith and allowing him to read with ease as he powers to the cup. That’s how you put things on a plate for a young potential creator.
Another instance of powering right through the perimeter dig, only this time Nesmith is presented with a much tougher task of finishing over Evan Mobley. Aaron hits him with a drag step to put the DPOY candidate behind the play and finishes high off the glass for good measure.
This part of Nesmith’s game gets me incredibly excited for his future. Being a guy who shoots well from outside and can slash from time to time already keeps you on the floor. Running a DHO now and then in addition to some strong mismatch attacks on the drive takes him to the next level of offensive utility. What can he unlock next?
Now, let’s dig into the last major area of offensive strength:
Glass Crashing
You want to talk excitement? Watch Aaron Nesmith going for an offensive rebound in a crowd.
Flying in from the perimeter, fighting through a boxout, or just flat-out wanting it more than the other guy. There are a lot of different ways that Nesmith can win on the glass.
I would be remiss if I didn’t put in this play I titled “attempted murder” in my clips folder:
If someone tried doing this to me at a 24-Hour Fitness, I would be compelled to throw hands just to regain some of my honor. Granted, I would only make a further ass out of myself, but it’s the principle of the thing.
At 6’6″, Nesmith is in the 57th percentile of forwards this season in terms of offensive rebounding. Though not on elite levels, he is usually much shorter than his counterpart, so he has to find creative ways to win. The fact that he does it at a well above-average level is nothing to sneeze at.
The top 8 lineups Indiana uses Nesmith in, according to total possessions, all involve him playing the 4. A league-average team offensive rebounding rate is roughly 27%; six of those eight Nesmith lineups clear that threshold, with the most used lineup pulling down 35% of their own misses. Obviously, there are four other guys out there helping with that number, but the common throughline is Aaron’s infectious energy and effort.
Growth Areas
Right now, Nesmith slots in as a quality off-ball wing with plenty of shooting, a splash of driving, and a strong nose for the ball on the offensive glass. At 24 years old and locked in with his team for at least the next three seasons, the question becomes what else he can add.
First and foremost, I’d like to see Nesmith add more midrange counters to his attacks. As you can see from the shot chart earlier, it’s threes, rim attempts, or nothing. Granted, those are the two most valuable shots. That doesn’t mean a midrange attempt from him would be a bad shot if attacking the closeout in front of the help defense, or making the defense pay for a deep drop on his dribble handoffs. Nesmith hasn’t been the highest-quality midrange shooter throughout his young career, especially in the shorter-range looks, but some extra repetition would be a boon. If anything, it would just make the defense think twice and open up more rim looks.
Another thing you may have noticed, concerning his finishing attempts, is that very few of them come with the left hand. This has severely limited his available tree of finishes; though he can make tough reverse finishes going around the rim or inverted finishes on the left side of the rim, it would be nice to see some development on that end. This would also enable Indiana to run some of the current DHO looks from the right wing of the floor, so he can dribble left-handed into the rim and use his left for finishes. Without it, defenses can key in on his tendencies and will have an easier time preventing his effective looks in the paint.
Lastly, I’d like to see an improved sense of playmaking from Aaron. He can create well by getting downhill and collapsing the defense, but he needs to mix in more passes on those drives. Sure, he can finish really well even with multiple defenders committed, but he tends to miss layoff passes or kickouts to the high-quality shooters on the team. That would be an extra layer to add that helps him take the next leap offensively.
Now, let’s dig into the less glamorous side of the ball.
Defensive Overview
The defensive catch-alls are tough to parse out with Nesmith. Indiana currently has the second-highest pace of any team in the league, and surrenders the second-most points per game with the fourth-worst defensive rating around. The ridiculous offense has turned them into a good team, but it makes it more difficult to figure out who is helping this defense keep things together (if you can call it that) vs. who is actively harming it.
To me, Nesmith solidly falls in the former group. Indiana concedes just north of 120 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but underneath that are some strong lineups. Three of the five most common Nesmith lineups that Indiana uses have a defensive points per 100 of 106.7 or lower; that 120 mark is being reached because of the second most common lineup, which features a Tyrese Haliburton/Bennedict Mathurin backcourt that concedes over 150 points per 100. Below is an approximation of what Hali/Benny perimeter stopping feels like.
I won’t pontificate too much on why Nesmith is better than the numbers would suggest. Let’s look deeper at the film.
On/Off Ball Event Creation
On subpar defensive teams, creating steals and blocks is a major tool to keep their heads above water. It serves both to cover for mistakes and juice the transition offense, which for Indiana is quite good. Since Nesmith’s arrival, he has been strongly above-average in defensive event creation. Last season, his steal and block rates were 63rd and 67th percentile (respectively) amongst forwards, and he is on a similar track through the start of this season, creating 2.1 defensive events per 75 possessions.
The steals are far more sustainable given his length (+6 wingspan) and overall hustle. He’s able to generate some of these simply by getting hands in passing lanes that others could not reach with his size.
Nesmith is disciplined about keeping his arms up to prevent passing windows and has quick hands to disrupt ballhandlers when the opportunity presents itself. Many of the steals are generally born out of hustle. Nesmith was highly regarded for his motor coming into the draft, and you rarely catch him with his foot off the gas pedal.
Look at the score on that clip. This kind of hustle will endear you to coaches, and make opponents resent you, which is a great spot to be in as a defender.
I also enjoyed the block creation from Nesmith. His sense of timing, verticality, and a dash of explosive athleticism have produced some defensive virtuosity.
The last possession impressed me the most. With Myles Turner switched out on the perimeter, Nesmith represents the last-ditch defense for a 5-out pick-and-roll with Paul Reed. Aaron gets himself in position at the last second for a do-or-die shot contest in the restricted area. You wouldn’t fault him for wrapping up Reed and forcing him to get points at the line in this scenario. Instead, he meets Reed at the apex with verticality to force a tougher finish and prevent the points entirely. That’s the goods right there.
There are other instances of Nesmith being a heady defender, working through switches to contain the opposition and still managing to create events:
This is a nice set by Cleveland. Caris LeVert sets the initial backscreen to force the switch from Andrew Nembhard off Darius Garland, which acts as window dressing for LeVert cutting into an empty lane. One hiccup: Nesmith reads it, peels off Garland once LeVert is committed to the roll, and packs the shot off the backboard. That’s a blend of athleticism and awareness that makes me giddy.
With Indiana struggling to form a good defense, Nesmith continuing to spin gold out of twine is going to be necessary. This is especially true with his off-ball creation, as teams will continue to attack Haliburton and Mathurin with gusto, and they need someone other than Myles Turner to clean up the mess.
Perimeter Stopping
We’ve established that Nesmith is a great vertical and straight-line athlete, but perimeter stopping takes more on the margins to really stand out. Quick feet and quicker hips are the keys that unlock a true stopper. Aaron has showcased that he has both in spades on several occasions.
On the above play, his hips are initially opened to the left anticipating a screen, but Strus rejects it in the hope that he can catch Nesmith a step late on the empty side. However, Aaron is too quick, closing down space in a split second and sticking to the drive to force a tough floater attempt. Not on his watch.
Here’s another example of those hips in action:
He’s no Shakira, but that is some quality hip movement. He does end up a step high after the second flip which gives Terry Rozier a window for the drive, but this is where the athleticism and length can make up for small positioning mistakes. That is a common theme of his perimeter game: physical tools making up for small mistakes.
He angles his hips the wrong direction on the above play against Malaki Branham, a similarly explosive athlete. But he’s able to flip himself back in the right direction after realizing the error, moving his feet well and using that off arm to force a tough attempt at the rim. Again, the benefits of having that 7-foot wingspan.
That athleticism/length combination also serves him well in trail defense. As his screen navigation is still a work in progress, he finds himself behind the play quite a bit, but has a unique ability to get himself re-involved even after being detached with a good screen:
What impressed me the most was the variety of matchups Nesmith is asked to take on. With Indiana employing lots of switching in lineups with him at the 4, he often found himself on much bigger players that could put the ball on the deck. I was surprised at how well he contained those matchups.
Though the above play ends in a foul, I still think he does a great job embracing Giannis’ physicality in order to force a tougher shot. Most wings would simply end up having a dunk land on their head, so credit where credit is due.
It generally feels like teams are figuring out “how can we beat this guy?” in a variety of ways. In this instance, Gordon Hayward tries to win by backing down Nesmith:
Look how focused Nesmith is on keeping Hayward out of the restricted area. He’s getting low to establish leverage, moving his feet to cut off angles, and using that off hand to prevent a layup while using the inside hand for further leverage. Outstanding stuff there.
This isn’t to say he is without mistakes. Nesmith is still working on his angles and how to set up initially to contain drives. It certainly gets him in trouble at times.
This is a problem that shows up often when screens are present on the handler he is trying to contain. To me, that is his biggest area of growth to work on as a perimeter stopper. He needs to work on feeling the screen coming, getting himself in the proper position to deny the easy looks, and being proactive with his screen nav instead of reactive. Anticipate, adapt, overcome. That’s the name of the game.
Now, on to the last portion of his defensive game that caught my eye.
Strength/Length Enabling Switching
We saw above how Nesmith’s functional strength and wingspan advantages help him contain bigs that can put the ball on the deck. But what happens when the bruisers of the league get him on a switch and try to back him under the basket?
You’ve probably guessed, given the tenor of this article: it doesn’t go well for the bigs.
They can clear a side, take away all the help they want, and put their biggest guy in the post on him. It doesn’t seem to matter. The low leverage he creates, combined with the aforementioned strength, means Nesmith is not easy pickings for even the most adept post-up bigs. The season is young, but players are only 2/8 when testing Aaron in the post, good for 0.73 points per possession.
But, this isn’t to say that Nesmith is perfect by all accounts. This brings us to our last section, covering both offense and defense.
Brain Farts
Nesmith is prone to some lapses in judgment on both ends. There are also some general miscues that can be tough to explain at times.
On the offensive end, Nesmith can get a little carried away at times, leading to some head-scratching turnovers.
You could have called two separate travels there in all likelihood. Talk about happy feet.
Then you have this one, where frankly I’m not sure what the plan was:
There are smaller lapses too. This one felt like an NFL receiver looking upfield before he secures the catch:
It doesn’t help that he gets behind the play by hesitating momentarily, leaving his teammate alone to handle the 2v1 fast break.
On the defensive end of the floor, Nesmith has a serious problem with pump fakes. He’s not the first or the last young perimeter defender with that issue (heck, even some of the olds still have it) but it feels like every single one works.
It’s not the worst, but it’s something to monitor as he takes on more defensive responsibility. At the pace that Indiana plays at (see what I did there?), guys are going to be flying around. He needs to learn to keep himself in check and play under more control, but without sacrificing the aggression that makes him so good.
Instances like the one below were also common. X-ing out the wing shooters is basic stuff for a wing defender, even one as young as Nesmith. He can’t afford to be consistently late in recognizing it and doing his duty:
Some of these brain farts are just funny, some are a bit more concerning. Having some lapses now and then is fine, but the out-of-control turnovers, biting on fakes constantly, and failing to X-out can be real problems. It’s something worth monitoring going forward.
Speaking of…
Future Outlook
It’s possible Nesmith never rises above the level of a strong rotation player or 4th/5th starter. But that’s more than fine considering what Indiana is paying him (roughly 7% of the cap over 3 years), and what he was acquired for.
There are two NBA misconceptions at play here. One, development isn’t linear. Some guys take a while to find it, some hit the ceiling early and continue chugging on at a certain level. It’s often very difficult to predict either.
Second, a late lottery pick turning into a rotation guy isn’t a disappointment by any means. The Pacers bought low on him in the Brogdon trade, and have seen a strong return on that investment. Even if Nesmith caps out at where he is already, that’s still a great piece to have.
This isn’t to say that Nesmith has reached his ceiling. A breakout in terms of expanded offense and true lockdown defense might be in the cards, and I am inclined to think more is coming if the shooting breakout continues. He has all of the physical tools in his bag and has shown a lot of awareness on both ends of the floor. Guys like that have very few limits and will go as far as they want to go.
Aaron Nesmith is one of the more entertaining role player watches in the league, and as the star of Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers (hopefully) continues to rise, there will be more eyes on their two-way wing. I, for one, am extremely excited to see where he goes from here.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
No items foundRelated Articles
