For our most recent mock draft, featuring written explanations for each pick, go here.

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

6. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

7. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

8. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Tough shotmaker all over the court

10. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

11. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

12. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three-point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

15. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

16. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

17. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

18. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

19. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

20. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first-step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

21. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

22. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

23. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

24. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

25. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

26. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

27. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three-point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

28. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

31. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

32. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

33. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

34. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

35. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease an offense and get stocks

36. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

37. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

38. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

41. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

42. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer

43. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

44. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

45. Dailyn Swain, Xavier

Sparks of dribble-pass-shoot ability for this athletic wing

46. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

47. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

48. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

49. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

50. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

51. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

52. Zvonimir Ivisic, Arkansas

PNR roll & pop 7’2” big

53. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

54. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

55. Max Shulga, VCU

Strong combo guard who can run some PNR

56. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

57. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

58. Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Tough-nosed defender and transition threat

59. Maxime Raynaud, Stanford

Spacing seven-footer with a post game

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

This one is a no-brainer. Flagg is a special prospect, capable of instantly changing the fortunes of any team that selects him. Washington is the fortunate one here, landing their future primary initiator and defensive leader. Flagg helps round out their already promising young core, adding a true superstar prospect to the mix.

– Ben Pfeifer

2. Charlotte Hornets: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

As a sophomore, Collin Murray-Boyles has boosted both efficiency (82nd percentile to 83rd percentile) and frequency (65th percentile to 70th percentile) as a post-up hub, possesses a burgeoning perimeter isolation game (88th percentile efficiency on 88th percentile frequency), and is a dominant passer in a variety of situations (career 19.8% AST and 1.2 A:TO). With elite offensive production regardless of usage, team context, and opponent difficulty as a young sophomore, Murray-Boyles has all the ingredients of an offensive star. Pair that potential with incredible defensive production, baseline touch, and outlier development indicators galore, and he has endless avenues to impact even if the offensive stardom doesn’t manifest. For a Charlotte team that ranks 29th in offense and 19th in defense, Murray-Boyles brings an integration of both offense and defense that lags behind only Cooper Flagg.

– Maurya Kumpatla

3. Utah Jazz: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper has established himself as one of the clear-cut top prospects in the 2025 class, combining ideal size for a ball-handler with the ability to generate consistent paint touches via advanced footwork and elite body control. He’s had to handle huge creation responsibility on a Rutgers team devoid of much shooting or ball handling to surround him, and has still managed to be efficient (59% TS%) in spite of that. The biggest question/swing skill with Harper is how well he’ll shoot it at the NBA level, but his percentages (35% 3pt, 74% FT) are respectable enough that you have to imagine that he’ll at least be a decent shooter. Even with Isaiah Collier showing promise as a lead ball-handler in his rookie year, Harper is too good of a prospect to pass up at #3.

– AJ Carter

4. New Orleans Pelicans: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

The Pelicans underwent a pseudo youth movement and Jakucionis will only add to it. They’ve needed more high-end playmaking for Zion Williamson’s entire career, making Jakucionis a perfect fit here. His shooting provides a tantalizing ceiling on the ball and will help him space and cut next to Williamson.

– Ben Pfeifer

5. Toronto Raptors: Khaman Maluach, Duke

Khaman Maluach is a monster. With a true shooting percentage over 70, Maluach is one of the most efficient players in his role in the entire country, despite being introduced to the game of basketball later in life. With fewer years of experience, it is fair to expect some growing pains and there certainly have been some this season at Duke. What has impressed me most throughout the year is not Maluach’s freaky athleticism, true center size, overwhelming offensive rebounding or hyper-efficient scoring, it has been the rate at which he has improved throughout the college season. Playing the five in the NBA will take some refining, it is the most difficult (and important) defensive role on the court, and few players walk into the league ready to do so. With Maluach’s physical tools, potential touch and competitiveness he has all the tools to be a true building block for Toronto. It is hard to imagine a more perfect mentor than Jakob Poeltl as he learns the ropes of NBA defense.

– Tyler Wilson

6. Philadelphia 76ers: Asa Newell, Georgia

Asa checks many boxes for this Sixers team, fitting cleanly at the 4 in the starting lineup and providing a reliable backup 5 option behind Embiid. The strengths of Newell’s game complement this team between his pinpoint offensive rebounding, frontcourt defensive versatility, helpside shot blocking, catch-and-shoot 3pt shooting potential, and the ability to attack closeouts with the shot or pumpfake, drive, and post-up hook. Newell slides right into the starting unit without taking touches from the star scorers and will produce as a positionless defender and off-ball play finisher.

– Ryan Kaminski

7. Brooklyn Nets: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe has managed to alleviate many concerns brought about by his early season play by consistently shooting the ball from distance (39.5% from 3 in conference play), while increasing both his volume and efficiency as a driver. Despite Edgecombe’s becoming more heavily featured within the Baylor offense, his defensive effort and production has seldom waned. This effort and production has come even though Edgecombe has been cast in a variety of roles and schemes as Baylor constantly tinkered to compensate for the lack of size in their rotation. The schematic inconsistencies have managed to provide a glimpse of how Edgecombe could be deployed as a ‘utility guard’, an archetype which has recently come into vogue and has in many ways defined the best defenses in the NBA over the past few years. Combining the versatile defensive ability with an increasingly potent offense has made Edgecombe a no-brainer pick at this juncture of the draft.

– Ahmed Jama

8. Chicago Bulls: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

The 6’3 quick guard can score at all levels, threatening teams with his feathery touch, feel, and footwork. At pick #8, Richardson was the perfect player for the Chicago Bulls to add to their young core and build on their halfcourt creation. Jase Richardson can hold up defensively for a small guard while being an extremely role-malleable offensive player. The bet for the Bulls is that Richardson’s shot-making inside the arc continues to evolve and translate further beyond the arc, enabling him to keep up with a higher usage role in the long term. In the short term, the Chicago Bulls play with a high transition frequency under Coach Billy Donovan which is a perfect fit with how effective Richardson is in the open-court.

– Roshan Potluri

9. San Antonio Spurs: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Ace Bailey would be a strong pick for the San Antonio Spurs due to his exceptional shot-making ability and positional size at 6-foot-10, offering a high-ceiling wing who can create his own offense alongside Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. His scoring versatility and length could complement the Spurs’ growing core, adding a dynamic perimeter threat to elevate their attack.

– Larry Golden

10. San Antonio Spurs: Derik Queen, Maryland

Derik Queen brings a positionally unique form of advantage creation as a post-hub passer with off-the-dribble shooting upside. Still, his offensive versatility is paired with limited defensive versatility: he’s at the horrid intersection of poor lateral quickness, poor vertical explosion, and underwhelming center size. There isn’t a better fit for this type of offensively tilted, defensively limited PF/C than alongside Victor Wembanyama, potentially the most transcendent two-way center in NBA history.

– Avinash Chauhan

11. Portland Trailblazers: Noa Essengue, ULM

The Portland Trailblazers get one of the youngest players and higher upside propositions in the 2025 NBA Draft at pick #11. Noa Essengue fits what Portland is building with its group of rangy defenders and strong interior presence. At 6’10, Essengue is a versatile defensive player who can operate out of the point-of-attack, back-line, or general help situations. Offensively, Essengue has been dominant in transition and applying physicality in the half-court for Ulm in the German BBL this season, and that can immediately translate to the NBA. While the shooting and strength are still a work in progress, Essengue has been improving these traits at a drastic rate enabling him to be someone who can attack off the catch consistently during his rookie-scale deal.

– Roshan Potluri

12. Houston Rockets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

While it was tough to pass up Tre Johnson, I liked the idea of Sorber within this group of exciting young players even more. The idea is somewhat like why they brought Steven Adams in, to provide a physical interior presence, good screening and strong passing. Sorber might eventually shoot it, too, with a smooth form and solid free throw and midrange percentages for a big.

– Matt Powers

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Tre Johnson has had one of the most impressive scoring seasons from a high-major freshman in recent memory. Posting a 6.5 Offensive Box Plus-Minus in conference play, second amongst freshmen and only trailing Cooper Flagg, Johnson has ameliorated many concerns of how quickly his game would translate to the most difficult conference in the country. Despite shouldering a massive 27% usage rate, Johnson has managed to adapt and make significant progress both as a facilitator and driver, consistently elevating his rim-rate over the course of the season without detracting from his efficiency. Johnson’s malleability as an offensive player bodes well to his professional career, as his ability to synergize with more interior based scorers will be crucial considering Johnson’s defensive limitations.

– Ahmed Jama

14. Utah Jazz: Kon Knueppel, Duke

For teams looking for shooting on the wing, Kon is one of the premier shotmakers in this year’s draft. He lacks much explosiveness or burst as an athlete, but has strong positional size and is a skilled scorer from every part of the court. Kon is a knockdown shooter off the catch but has more variety to his shotmaking than just that, showing the ability to make pull-ups off the dribble or use his size to carve out space for short jumpers. It remains to be seen how well he’ll be able to survive on defense at the NBA level, but offensively Kon has one of the most translatable skillsets in the draft.

– AJ Carter

15. Orlando Magic: Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

– Ryan Kaminski

16. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

Noah Penda’s integration of length (6-foot-11 wingspan), strength (225 lbs), instincts, and hand-eye coordination have led him to a league-leading blocks total and 2nd-best steals totals as just a 20-year-old in the French Jeep Elite, giving him an argument for best non-big defender in the class. For an Oklahoma City Thunder scheme that’s already historic at forcing turnovers and boasts rim protection from each position, Penda adds even more value. Though he brings shooting and finishing question marks, he’s on a special developmental trajectory as a shooter, and his monster offensive rebounding-assists-stocks integration promises further room for growth.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Dallas Mavericks: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

The idea of Kyrie Irving mentoring Fears is too appealing to pass up, but Fears is easily my best on the board at this point. Much like why I drafted him to the Nets in our prior mock draft, Fears has some of the best dribble-pass-shoot upside in the class, carrying a heavy burden for Oklahoma at age 18. It’s tough to find primary upside this late, but the Mavs do here.

– Matt Powers

18. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Bennett Stirtz is one of the best volume pick-and-roll scorers in all of college basketball, fusing pace, a tight handle, and shotmaking from every area on the court to power 87th percentile pick-and-roll ballhandler efficiency on 99th percentile frequency. He pairs this scoring with best-in-the-class feel, blending visual manipulation with a wide range of deliveries to produce a 35% assist rate and engine a top-40 Drake halfcourt offense. All this makes him an underrated creation bet, but a 47% catch-and-shoot jumpshot and tons of driving production give him a strong dribble/pass/shoot wing base. His footspeed on defense in such a role would be worrisome, but his strong feel and hand-eye coordination that leads to defensive playmaking (3.6% steal rate) would fit like a glove in Oklahoma City.

– Maurya Kumpatla

19. Miami Heat: Dailyn Swain, Xavier

At pick #19, the Miami Heat select Dailyn Swain: the young sophomore forward with creative ball-handling and lock-down defense out of Xavier. Standing at 6’8, Swain fits the Heat’s culture of players who play with a motor and a sense of toughness, which exudes itself in how Swain consistently impacts games in the most opportunistic ways. The impact is seen without needing to play on the ball at Xavier – Swain runs the break hard in transition, keeps the ball moving in the halfcourt, and is always hustling on the boards. That energy, with his size and length, translates to the defensive end where he can cover ground well and excel in lock and trail situations. While the defense and feel on the offensive end will keep him on the court early on, the Heat will need to improve Swain’s two-motion jumper for Swain to hit any form of creation upside. However, in the middle of the first round, Swain’s combination of age, size, burst, feel, flexibility, and handling comfort makes him a worthy proposition for a retooling Heat team.

– Roshan Potluri

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

With Mike Conley’s decline Minnesota has a clear need for long-term ball-handling/shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards. While 2024 draft pick Rob Dillingham is an obvious candidate to fill a lot of that responsibility in coming years, it wouldn’t hurt to take another swing on a potential creator. Traore has slid down draft boards after being a preseason potential top 5 pick candidate due to a lack of efficiency and consistency, but outside of the lottery it’s hard to find players with more upside than Traore. Despite struggles this season he still has the talent to be a dynamic creator off the dribble if he can improve as a shotmaker and make smarter decisions with the ball.

– AJ Carter

21. Indiana Pacers: Ben Saraf, ULM

Rick Carlisle loves guards, and Saraf gives the Pacers another dribble-drive-pass threat. The three-point shot is poor off the dribble but acceptable off the catch. At a strong 6’5” and still just 18, Saraf has the build and productivity of someone capable of handling bench primary duties. Perhaps the single best passer in the class.

– Matt Powers

22. Brooklyn Nets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Kalkbrenner’s brand of mistake-free basketball, characterized by foul and TO avoidance, is inherently low friction, and his sheer size (7’5 WS + 250 lbs) with relative mobility gives him a fairly high floor as a defender.  He’s exhibited NBA-caliber dominance since his sophomore year, and he’s slowly increased his 3P rate while consistently shooting over 70% FT for his college career. With much more room to err and experiment on the rebuilding Nets, Kalk’s collegiate extent of dominance may persist more than one would expect with a typical four-year center.

– Avinash Chauhan

23. Brooklyn Nets: Carter Bryant, Arizona

You don’t see too many bulky, athletic forwards take over half their shots from beyond 3P, but at 6’8, 225 pounds, Carter has a whopping 0.60 3P rate while remaining hyper-efficient inside the arc (14 of his 37 2P makes are dunks). The upside with Carter lies within his pull up game: in interviews, he consistently cites players like Tatum and Paul George as personal exemplars, and his AAU playtype distribution was littered with far too many pullups and PnR BH possessions. While his production and processing (7.6 BPM, 6% block, 3% steal, 1 A:TO) give him a reasonably high floor, it’s Carter’s tantalizing combination of youth, size, and shooting proclivity that could unlock true star upside.

– Avinash Chauhan

24. Atlanta Hawks: Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

This was an easy selection, and I would imagine Atlanta would be pretty stoked to draft someone at 24 who is all but a guaranteed NBA rotation player. McNeeley gets it in more ways than one. He is a surprisingly effective defensive rebounder despite his physical limitations, he makes quick decisions on and off the ball, and (somewhat surprisingly) has shown the ability to handle a larger offensive load than he did in high school playing on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory. McNeeley will present some questions defensively, but he should be able to slide into lineups featuring both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson easily. He’s only hit ~35% of his threes this season, but don’t let that deceive you, McNeeley is one of the premier off-ball weapons in this class.

– Tyler Wilson

25. Washington Wizards: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was by far the best player available, but he’s a logical fit for a Washington team still looking for high-end talent. The Alabama freshman is a quick, shifty guard who pressures the rim and passes at a high level. He could develop into a valuable connector piece for a Wizards team that just added Cooper Flagg.

– Ben Pfeifer

26. Orlando Magic: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

– Ryan Kaminski

27. Brooklyn Nets: Kam Jones, Marquette

Kam Jones would be a strong pick for the Brooklyn Nets due to his proven scoring ability and playmaking skills, averaging over 20 points and 6 assists per game at Marquette, which could bolster their backcourt during a rebuild. His experience as a senior guard, combined with his improved shooting and passing, makes him a ready-made contributor who could thrive in Brooklyn’s system under Jordi Fernández.

– Larry Golden

28. Boston Celtics: Rasheer Fleming, St. Joseph’s

Fleming is a bit of a divisive selection as a lower-usage upperclassman playing in the A10, but at pick #28 the positives are too hard to ignore. He has been massive for St. Joe’s this year, shooting over 70% at the rim and 41% from three. In an era of NBA basketball where efficient shots are valued more than ever, Fleming is an easy bet to score in the most valuable areas of the court. His block, steal and rebounding numbers are all positive and point towards a genuine contributor on the defensive side of the ball as a powerful forward with the ability to play some small-ball five. If Boston truly “needs” anything in the draft, it is cost-controlled production. Fleming should provide real value on his rookie deal as an older prospect with the frame and complementary skillet to produce immediately. 

– Tyler Wilson

29. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford to the Los Angeles Clippers would be great because of his versatility as a 6-foot-6 guard bringing defensive flexibility and rebounding tenacity, addressing the team’s need for depth on the wing alongside stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. His senior-year performance at Colorado State—averaging 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on efficient shooting—shows he could provide immediate contributions as a role player for the Clips.

– Larry Golden

30. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

It is unclear in which direction the Suns want to go, and Ant gives them options. His POA defense is NBA-ready, a thief ready to pounce at any moment. The best player on a top-20 team in the nation as a sophomore, Robinson is able to do important things on the court. He is the team leader in assists who has also shown outside shooting potential with 42% from three, 49% from midrange and 77% from the line splits. Despite being only 6’3”, Ant’s reported 6’7” wingspan makes him more dangerous in passing lanes or snagging the errant offensive board. His 0.78 free throw rate reiterates his level of physicality, NBA ready despite the skinny frame.

– Matt Powers

31. Boston Celtics: Johni Broome, Auburn

32. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

34. Charlotte Hornets: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

35. Detroit Pistons: Paul McNeil, NC State

36. Philadelphia 76ers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

37. Brooklyn Nets: Javon Small, West Virginia

38. Sacramento Kings: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

39. San Antonio Spurs: Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

40. Toronto Raptors: Eric Dixon, Villanova

41. Oklahoma City Thunder: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

42. Washington Wizards: Egor Demin, BYU

43. Orlando Magic: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

44. Golden State Warriors: JoJo Tugler, Houston

45. Chicago Bulls: Max Shulga, VCU

46. Los Angeles Clippers: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

47. Utah Jazz: Alex Toohey, Sydney

48. Washington Wizards: Nate Bittle, Oregon

49. Utah Jazz: Tyrese Proctor, Duke

50. Washington Wizards: JT Toppin, Texas Tech

51. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nolan Winter, Wisconsin

52. Indiana Pacers: Alex Condon, Florida

53. Memphis Grizzlies: Isaiah Evans, Duke

54. Los Angeles Lakers: Curtis Jones, Iowa State

55. New York Knicks: Terrance Arceneaux, Houston

56. Phoenix Suns: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

57. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

58. Houston Rockets: Rocco Zikarsky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Braden Smith, Purdue

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

6. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

7. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

8. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Versatile scoring, smooth three point shooting bucket-getter

10. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

11. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

12. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

15. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

16. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

17. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

18. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

19. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

20. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

21. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

22. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

23. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

24. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

25. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

26. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

27. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

28. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer out for season

31. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

32. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

33. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

34. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

35. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

36. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

37. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

38. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

41. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

42. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

43. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

44. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

45. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

46. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

47. KJ Lewis, Arizona

Aggressive defender with questions on offense

48. Dink Pate, Mexico City

18-year-old G Leaguer with a big body and flashes all over the court

49. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

50. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

51. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

52. Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

High volume shooter who rarely makes mistakes at age 23

53. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

54. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

55. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

56. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

57. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease and offense and get stocks

58. RJ Luis, Saint John’s

Dynamic athlete scorer

59. Milan Momcilovic

Unblockable shot for this 6’8” 40% three point shooter

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

1. Washington Wizards: Cooper Flagg, Duke

Cooper Flagg is a primary offensive option, one of the best defensive players in the country, leading a top ten team as a true 18-year-old freshman after being the highest-rated American High School prospect since… Anthony Davis? Yet somehow the discourse surrounding him to start the year has developed a negative tint. This is a special prospect, even if he doesn’t become the literal reincarnation of LeBron James. Two-way forwards do not grow on trees and their importance to playoff basketball cannot be understated. A foundation of Cooper Flagg and Bilal Coulibaly is an ideal starting point for building a roster meant for May and June. While Washington might not have your typical “star creator” on the roster they are not in a place to be drafting for context at the top of the draft. These kinds of players are worth their weight in gold, and the Wizards are running to the bank.

– Tyler Wilson

2. New Orleans Pelicans: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper is a natural scoring creator with legitimate two-way feel; Dylan dices up defenses with ease. Harper consistently creates good looks for himself and his teammates, forces turnovers on defense, plays with a grab-and-go pace, and scores tough shots at every level. Dylan’s downhill explosiveness jumps off the page with incredible body control to decelerate, finish at the rim, draw fouls, and kick out to open shooters. Dylan looks like this draft class’ best primary halfcourt offensive engine who can create good looks for the team every time down the floor. With Zion, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy flanking him in the frontcourt, adding Dylan Harper to the mix opens up the Pelicans’ options to build around this exciting walking bucket.

– Ryan Kaminski

3. Utah Jazz: Derik Queen, Maryland

The 6’10 Derik Queen will go to the Utah Jazz in the upcoming NBA Draft, and it’s easy to see why. His exceptional skillset makes him a highly coveted player for any team, but especially for the Jazz at this point in the draft. With a blend of feel, versatility, and impressive court vision, Queen can impact games in multiple facets. The ability to grab the ball off the glass and show off how comfortable he is as a ball handler in the open floor will be a headache for teams. Coaches can deploy him in delay actions, chin, dribble handoffs as the operator and trust him to make the right reads. The potential of having a pair as skilled as Lauri Markkanen and Queen could lead to not only fun for fans, but also wins.

– Larry Golden

4. Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Despite having played this season in relative obscurity compared to other highly touted draft prospects, Collin Murray-Boyles has made significant developments to his game which should see him garner heavy consideration at the top of the class. During Murray-Boyles’ freshman campaign he played a more complementary role for South Carolina and thrived as a play finisher and opportunistic playmaker. So far this season, Murray-Boyles’ usage has been significantly scaled up and he’s gotten MORE efficient as a scorer. Of the 14 players in the country 6’7 or taller with over a 25% Usage Rate, Murray-Boyles possesses the highest True-Shooting% and the second-highest assist rate. What these statistical thresholds convey is Murray-Boyles’ presenting one of the most unique intersections of size and playmaking ability in the class. While I understand the Raptors’ faithful may have some consternation about Murray-Boyles’ fit with their resident jumbo-playmaker in Scottie Barnes, I believe this is a misguided thought for a team still seeking identity. At this phase of their team-building process the Raptors cannot afford to draft for fit and Murray-Boyles, in my estimation, is the best player remaining on the board.

– Ahmed Jama

5. Charlotte Hornets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Charlotte secures their star big of the future with Thomas Sorber. A rotation of Mark Williams, Nick Richards, and Miles Bridges at center has resulted in three straight bottom-10 defensive seasons. Sorber’s 10.8% stock rate and +4.5 defensive BPM using physical dominance, feel, fluidity, and hand-eye coordination promise instant remedies. His athleticism, touch, and processing fit immediately as a play finisher with LaMelo Ball and as a dribble-handoff hub with Brandon Miller, while his massive offensive rebounding-stocks-assists integration (10.0% offensive rebound and 16.5% assist rates), tons of interior craft (78th percentile post-up efficiency), and ample shooting indicators dating back to high school (37.9% on non-rim twos and 71.6% on free-throws pre-NCAA) enable further pathways for development.

– Maurya Kumpatla

6. Portland Trailblazers: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Portland is a team in an interesting spot, as they have a lot of intriguing younger players but lack a clear direction for their roster. Ace makes a lot of sense for them as arguably the best player available who also fits in nicely around some of their other core pieces with his length, shotmaking, and defensive upside. Portland would be a good landing spot for Ace as well, as they have enough ball handling and guard play to be able to ease him in offensively and let him work off the ball rather than overtasking him in a creator role.

– AJ Carter

7. Oklahoma City Thunder: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

The OKC Thunder keep getting stronger, adding another top-10 pick to their already-loaded young core. As the No. 1 seed in the West, their defense has been a force, built on aggressively forcing turnovers through blocks and steals. Enter VJ Edgecombe, the only freshman to post a 5% mark in both steal and block rates—making him the perfect fit for this defensive juggernaut. Joining the Thunder gives him the ideal situation to showcase his defensive strengths while sharpening his offensive game. The Thunder’s guard room is stacked, but the chance to work on his shot with Chip Engelland and reduce driving turnovers in OKC’s spaced-out drive-and-kick offense should do wonders for VJ’s offensive development.

– Roshan Potluri

8. Brooklyn Nets: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Jeremiah Fears could lock up the Brooklyn Nets’ point guard position for the foreseeable future. The Oklahoma freshman has taken up huge usage (most in the SEC) despite only recently turning 18. There are few chances for heliocentric upside in this class, and Fears might have it with his dribble/pass/shoot potential and early returns. With patience, technique, and surprising strength beyond his years (he draws a TON of fouls), Fears will be a tough cover at any level. He’s not a pushover on defense, either, securing over two steals per game with limited fouling. The Nets could give Fears a long enough runway to see just how high that upside is.

– Matt Powers

9. Detroit Pistons: Asa Newell, Georgia

I’m aware this choice may feel somewhat controversial. Detroit was not a team I found terribly easy to draft for. I strongly considered Kasparas as an off-ball shotmaker alongside Cade, which I believe to be Kasparas’ ideal role. Newell is a guy I’m higher on than consensus, I buy the shooting relative to the numbers and the general scalability, which Detroit needs. They don’t have a tonne of long-term versatility within their core, and I buy Newell being able to slot in alongside whatever they want to do. He just feels like the exact type of player they need in the half-court and I buy Bickerstaff being a good coach for him, which matters.

– Joe Hulbert

10. Chicago Bulls: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

It’s been a while since the Bulls have had a point guard who can make things happen in the halfcourt and create for their teammates consistently. Jakucionis is a 6’6 point guard with true star upside who flashes elite passing skills, pull-up shooting, and driving. In 177 possessions as the pick and roll ball handler he scores a 0.944 in PPP which is good enough for 64th percentile. The shooting off the dribble has been rock steady as he’s taken 36 and made 47%, even before arriving at Illinois it’s been a true strength of his which is a very desirable skill in the NBA. This would be a no-brainer pick for the Chicago Bulls.

– Larry Golden

11. Sacramento Kings: Liam McNeeley, UConn

A high volume 3pt sniper handoff extraordinaire who attacks closeouts with a myriad of tools, Liam McNeeley slides right into the Kings’ schemes. McNeeley brings 3-point shot versatility (C&S, pull-up, movement) and counters closeouts by attacking the rack looking to posterize anyone in his path. In Montverde’s loaded starting unit of Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, Derik Queen, and Rob Wright, McNeeley would often end up the leading scorer as a floor-spacing play-finishing scoring valve who could heat up at any moment. Whether he’s backing up Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter or replacing them, McNeeley can fill a similar role playing off the strong screen DHO playmaking of Domantas Sabonis, whether De’Aaron Fox stays in town or not.

– Ryan Kaminski

12. San Antonio Spurs: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Steering away from their affinity towards lengthy, athletic defensive-minded wings nets San Antonio one of the most well-polished offensive prospects in the class. Jase Richardson kills with productivity by extracting the most out of every touch; few can match his balanced shot distribution and monster offensive efficiency (74% true shooting and 3.7 assist-to-turnover ratio). His integration of versatile shooting, driving, and pristine decision-making gives him a high floor with tons of role malleability as a spot-up shooter and second-side creator. Still, Richardson has consistently scaled up production in games with higher doses of usage in a way that gives hope for untapped on-ball upside: he has a 74.5% true shooting in games with <15% usage versus 78.2% in games with >15% usage.

– Maurya Kumpatla

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Atlanta already has several long-term pieces in place (Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson,  Zaccharie Risacher), and Tre Johnson looks the part of someone who has the versatility to complement all of them. He’s a ready-made shotmaker with high-end upside as a shooter, and he’s also shown flashes as a playmaker and on-ball defender. A fully developed version of Johnson would be a great fit in Atlanta as a do-it-all wing who can fit into a variety of roles while spacing the floor for Trae.

– AJ Carter

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

In today’s NBA, you can never have too many dribble/pass/shoot wings, and that holds true even for the stacked OKC Thunder. Noah Penda brings the perfect blend of high feel, strength, and catch-and-shoot ability to thrive as a closeout creator in the Thunder’s offense. Where Penda truly stands out is on the defensive end, where he excels at creating turnovers both on the perimeter and as a weakside rim protector. This combination of skills on both ends of the floor should allow Penda to make an immediate impact for OKC, all while being under 21 for most of his rookie year.

– Roshan Potluri

15. Indiana Pacers: Johni Broome, Auburn

One of college basketball’s main storylines in the early season has been Auburn’s historically dominant start. Currently leading every major computer rating system while playing the most difficult schedule in the country, Johni Broome in many ways has been the catalyst for Auburn’s early-season heroics. Broome has oscillated between being the team’s defensive anchor and offensive fulcrum, similar to the previous season, while increasing his efficiency across the board. Broome’s all-encompassing impact on the best team in college basketball bodes well for his role in the league, where interchangeability is a necessary condition for reserve frontcourt players. And with Myles Turner’s impending free agency, the Pacers’ frontcourt composition is in a precarious state. Johni Broome could easily be integrated into a lineup with or without Turner, and coalesce with the other Pacer’s frontcourt players.

– Ahmed Jama

16. San Antonio Spurs: Kon Knueppel, Duke

The 19th-ranked offense Spurs double down on offensive bets here with Kon Knueppel, who is as pure of a shooter as you’ll find. He’s a lifetime 41% on threes, 84% on free throws, and 49% on non-rim twos across the EYBL and NCAA since 2020, making his shooting projection seamless. Knueppel pairs this shooting with high levels of ballhandling and feel, possessing a tight handle (9.7% turnover rate) with off-putting dribble cadences and being a quick processor (3.4 assist-to-turnover ratio), all of which coincide to make him an 88th percentile pick-and-roll ball handler in the country according to Synergy Sports. Athleticism and physicality are major concerns for Knueppel on both ends, but no team gives him the margins to succeed as the Spurs’ length and athleticism do.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noa Essengue, Ulm

Noa Essengue will be 18.5 on draft night, making him an elite upside pick for the Thunder. With an established roster and a strong development staff, there’s no pressure for him to create in the half-court right away. Essengue has been a dominant force in transition, applying immense pressure on the rim with 34 dunks and a 0.77 free throw rate in the Basketball Bundesliga (25 games). At 6’10” with a reported 9’3.25” reach, Essengue is a pliable forward capable of both protecting the rim and stifling opponents at the point of attack. Despite being a teenager, Essengue shows great feel for the game which is evident in his 2% steal rate and 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. While his touch as a finisher still needs work, his 68.6% from the free-throw line and 30% three-point rate provide a strong foundation for improvement. With one of the NBA’s best shooting development staff, Essengue is well-positioned to refine his skills and develop into a special two-way player for the Thunder.

– Roshan Potluri

18. Golden State Warriors: Egor Demin, BYU

A quintessential Warriors player with his intersection of size and feel, if he were drafted this season Demin would be one of only four one-and-done freshmen above 6’7 to post above a 20% assist rate, the others being Anthony Black, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Ben Simmons. Demin has acquitted himself extremely well exclusively running the point in BYU’s NBA-style offense. However, questions remain about whether he can sustain this production versus better competition, and how well his shooting will hold considering his mediocre priors. While these concerns are valid, what Demin’s demonstrated so far should portend well for a reduced role for a Golden State team in need of a two-way connector.

– Ahmed Jama

19. Houston Rockets: Khaman Maluach, Duke

The Rockets get one of the most impactful freshmen in the country at a relative value. Khaman Maluach has played a critical role in Duke’s nation-leading adjusted defensive efficiency while playing a remarkably mistake-free offensive role. Everything about Khaman’s game oozes physical dominance, starting with anthropometrics: he has 10-inch wide hands and a 9’8 standing reach, both of which would rank amongst the top of the league. Khaman is a force on the glass (15% offensive rebound rate), a wildly efficient scorer (81% true shooting), and he’s showcased an uncanny ability to both draw fouls (0.60 free throw rate) and limit possession obstruction (< 4 fouls/40 + 11% TO). He even demonstrates some semblance of touch, shooting 80% from the line. Khaman and his anti-foul rim protection style should seamlessly slot into Ime Udoka’s stifling defensive scheme. There are certainly pertinent concerns regarding Khaman’s feel, but this is the type of high-upside, immediate-production selection that the surging Rockets should be looking to make.

– Avinash Chauhan

20. Utah Jazz: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Boogie is one of the best guards in this draft class. The burst off the dribble is truly something to watch while he’s on the floor. This is a guard who can create and get into the paint without a screen and show off his touch with his floater or make the reads necessary to keep advantages going. He’s sporting a 73-27 assist-to-turnover rate so far this season. Boogie is also shooting 36% from three while launching 60 of them. There aren’t many players in this draft who combine the ball handling, creativity, and self-creation upside as Boogie. This is the best available pick.

– Larry Golden

21. Brooklyn Nets: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon is the most “gadget-y” player in the class, and that’s why I love him in a backcourt next to earlier pick Jeremiah Fears. His game isn’t perfect – he needs to clean up his catch-and-shoot technique and have more anticipation for passing reads – but is consistently a plus across skills. He has not gotten a chance to show off his pull-up shooting as more of a connector in the Alabama system, but still can juice their offense which is nearly ten points better with him on. His positioning overall is elite, making him a threatening defender and able to clean up easy transition looks. If he can build on his scoring (he remains highly efficient at 59% true shooting), Philon could provide a backcourt panacea to endless problems.

– Matt Powers

22. Orlando Magic: Kam Jones, Marquette

Orlando is ready to contend. Their biggest need is a pull-up three-point sniper who can score and run some offense to pull defenders away from Franz and Paolo. In walks Kam Jones, arguably the best college player in the country. Averaging 20 PPG with a 4.2 A/TO his senior season while hitting 38% on six 3PA over a four-year college career sample size, Kam may provide the instant floor-spacing spark Orlando’s offense so desperately needs.

– Ryan Kaminski

23. Orlando Magic: Donnie Freeman

Donnie Freeman is a strong big wing who brings two-way impact because he can score, rebound, defend, and hit the open three. Freeman shows promising touch indicators like high FT% for positive shooting development. The highest ceiling guards on the board were Ben Saraf, who makes incredible highlight passes, and Nolan Traore, who attacks gaps with quick burst, flashes connector tendencies, hustles defensively, and has flashed the pull-up shot on rare occasions. But, neither Saraf nor Traore have been a consistent 3-point shooter. For a contending team targeting good basketball players this late in the draft who can quickly contribute and space the floor, the strategy taken was finding high-floor reserves who can fill a 6th-9th man slot in the rotation with the potential to fill in as starters when called upon. While both guards have higher potential ceilings, hoping rookies develop a skill they don’t currently show on a roster where the opportunity to do so is limited is a tough situation for them to succeed.

– Ryan Kaminski

24. Brooklyn Nets: Ben Saraf, Ulm

Ben Saraf burst onto the first-round radar with his MVP performance at the 2024 U18 Euro Championship. His most obvious strength is his size/feel: he’s measured at 6’5 without shoes and a 6’7.5 wingspan, with a certified highlight reel of passing flair and abrupt steals to boot. While the shot hasn’t quite been falling this year, Saraf has a 33% assist rate and 2.7% steal rate while leveraging his size en route to a 5.4% offensive rebound and 1.1% block rate. And he’s doing this as the unquestioned engine of a surprisingly great Ratiopharm Ulm team that’s currently 9-2 in the Eurocup. Saraf has drawn comparisons to former Ulm PG and current Long Island Net Killian Hayes, especially as a fellow lefty, but this is aesthetic bias personified: Saraf is far more turnover avoidant while showing an ability to make open catch-and-shoot threes (46% open 3P% vs 27% open 3P% for pre-draft Killian). There are clear athletic and shooting concerns with Saraf, but productive teenagers leading productive teams are a dime a dozen. Saraf could be THE tank commander for the Nets as they Dive (in the standings) for Darryn or Lose for Booz(er).

– Avinash Chauhan

25. Brooklyn Nets: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Willams was an easy pick for me here, even despite being older at 22 on draft day. He is extremely productive, #6 in Box Plus-Minus in the NCAA. He can shoot – a career 40% three-point shooter on 6 attempts per 100 possessions and 86% from the line on 167 attempts. But more importantly, he has shown his passing has more upside than initially displayed his prior two seasons, now up to 5.2 assists per game compared to only 2.0 turnovers. Despite not being the fleetest of feet, he contributes everywhere, getting some boards, some steals, some blocks with his high feel for the game. The Brooklyn Nets cannot pass up someone who can grease the offense from the wing (Darrion is 6’6”, I should mention) while proving through his production he can hang in athletically.

– Matt Powers

26. Dallas Mavericks: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

The Mavs need blue-chip young talent. The Luka-to-Lively connection should be a permanent fixture of Mavs basketball for the next decade, but beyond that tandem, there is a real lack of youthful upside on the roster. Nolan Traore has had a rough start to his season in a surprisingly large role for a teenager with Saint Quentin, but the talent is untenable. He is a walking paint touch with NBA-level athleticism at the guard spot. His ability to defend the point of attack and create out of the pick-and-roll pairs well with Luka both on the court and while he sits. The shot will need to come around, but at this point in the draft that is a bet worth taking.

– Tyler Wilson

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Orlando desperately needs more guard creation to relieve pressure from its offensive stars. Pettiford brings that needed offensive juice. He shoots efficiently from deep range off of the bounce, breaks defenses with his speed, and finds his teammates for open shots. Point guards of his size always face a challenging climb to the NBA, but Pettiford’s advanced offensive toolkit and defensive playmaking on Orlando’s roster of giants bode well for his chances.

– Ben Pfeifer

28. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford feels destined to be a Clipper. He’s an older prospect who should be ready to compete on both ends of the floor from the start of training camp. He has had a larger offensive role this season, but that is not his sell as a prospect. Clifford is a grinder on both ends of the floor, an above-the-rim athlete who knows where to be and when to be there. Statistically, his projection as a shooter is a bit murky (68% from the line and  35% from three for his career), but his comfortability in the midrange and shooting over contests is encouraging. For a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team led by two high-usage stars, Clifford is an easy plug-and-play fit.

– Tyler Wilson

29. Boston Celtics: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Gonzalez would add another defensively slanted wing into the rotation, something they’ll never complain about. He’s defended at a positive level for stretches throughout his Euroleague play this season, imposing his will as a point of attack and low-man defender. Boston will have no problems waiting for Gonzalez to tap into a passable level of offensive impact, and Gonzalez fell too far for his talent level.

– Ben Pfeifer

30. Utah Jazz: Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Fleming is a 6’9 forward who is showing signs of being able to stretch the floor from three making 39% on 53 attempts in 12 games. Not only is he able to shoot it, but he also has enough handle to attack closeouts and go finish at the rim with force and even finesse with his athleticism. Fleming is still only 20 years old and provides a lot of intrigue with his versatility on both sides of the ball. He currently leads his team in stocks with 41 total (22 steals, 19 blocks). Picking Fleming at the 30th pick is a win.

– Larry Golden

31. Boston Celtics: Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

32. Charlotte Hornets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

34. Detroit Pistons: Will Riley, Illinois

35. Charlotte Hornets: Jacob Cofie, Virginia

36. Toronto Raptors: Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

37. Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

38. Brooklyn Nets: Danny Wolf, Michigan

39. Washington Wizards: Alex Karaban, UConn

40. Indiana Pacers: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

41. San Antonio Spurs: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

42. Chicago Bulls: Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

43. San Antonio Spurs: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

44. Oklahoma City Thunder: Xaivian Lee, Princeton

45. Los Angeles Lakers: Igor Milicic Jr., Tennessee

46. Golden State Warriors: Juni Mobley, Ohio State

47. Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

48. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

49. Atlanta Hawks: Jamir Watkins, Florida State

50. Washington Wizards: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

51. Washington Wizards: Dink Pate, Mexico City

52. Charlotte Hornets: JoJo Tugler, Houston

53. Orlando Magic: Jalil Bethea, Miami

54. Dallas Mavericks: KJ Lewis, Arizona

55. Memphis Grizzlies: Tucker Devries, West Virginia

56. New York Knicks: Drake Powell, UNC

57. Houston Rockets: Max Shulga, VCU

58. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Milan Momcilovic’s absence from all mainstream mock drafts and boards perplexes me. After a freshman year where the 6’8 forward proved himself an elite shotmaker, he’s positioned well to make a run at the 2025 draft for an elite Iowa State team.

The shotmaking numbers are gaudy — 36.1% from three on 8.8 attempts per 100, a 49.9 three-point attempt rate, 80.9% on free-throws and 45.6% (68-149) on long two-pointers. The only other 6’8+ freshman to match Momcilovic’s shooting production was Lauri Markkanen.

The eye test reflects these numbers, as Momcilovic sprints off of movement from NBA range, pulls up off of the dribble and feathers in Dirk-inspired fadeaways in the intermediate. Very few shooters his height and age compare to Momcilovic. That alone is worth something in an NBA where teams regard shooting so highly.

Momcilovic’s athletic translation will be the primary question for his NBA outlook. He’s fairly slow on both ends without much explosion or bend, evidenced by his poor athletic indicators (1.0% steal rate, 20.1 free-throw rate, zero dunks). We rarely see players with physical indicators this poor make the NBA.

Despite those major problems, Momcilovic defends at a positive level in college. His footspeed might limit his effectiveness on the perimeter at the next level, but he’s a stellar team defender who always positions himself to close gaps and help at the basket. That same feel manifests on offense, as Momcilovic is an effective secondary playmaker off of his shooting gravity.

We shouldn’t let imperfect statistical history blind us to outlier talent, and that’s what Milan Monmcilovic’s shotmaking is. I’ve never scouted a freshman prospect with these kind of extreme, outlier strengths and weaknesses. I’m willing to bet on Momcilovic’s unique traits and hope for physical development as his body matures, but he’ll be a fascinating case to track throughout the season.

Matt Powers – Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Xaivian Lee needs to improve to become an NBA player, and perhaps significantly so. This is not ideal for a rising junior in a minor conference, but I believe there are reasons for trusting Lee to do just that.

First, Lee is young for his grade, as only 20 years old. This is important as he is still on the steep side of the aging curve, if not as steep as ages 18 to 19 or 19 to 20. This is also important because Lee’s biggest flaw, without a doubt, is being only 165 pounds at most recent measurement.

Adding that weight will elevate the stellar craft and technique we’ve already seen Lee display on a regular basis. It’s good he’s in the Ivy league where he has room to fully experiment despite the lack of weight, as he’s able to create large margins in which to operate with his elite shiftiness.

Lee had more drives than any of the 2023 drafted NCAA guards. While this is surely aided tremendously by the poor competition, I can defend the stat still in a few ways. 1.) The degree of outperformance, 67% higher than his peers’ averages, 2.) His performance kept up against higher comp. In fact, he even played better inside the arc (50% -> 55% from two) and nearly led the conference in RAPM versus top 100 competition. 3.) He tested very well at the G League Elite Camp, taller than expected (6’2.75” without shoes, acceptable for a point guard), among the best at agility testing and showing off a surprising 36.5” max vertical.

Now, let’s get to the actual basketball. Lee is a dribble-pass-shoot guard who also blocked more shots (14, a lot for 6’2.75”) than all of Isaiah Collier, Jared McCain, Rob Dillingham and KJ Simpson combined. He plays more physically than your everyday slight guard, also excelling on the defensive glass where he was second on the team in rebounds. He seems closer to a very good shooter than an elite one, with 34% from three, 80% from the line, 34% from midrange and 62% at the rim splits. But every one of those is improved from the year before, and, again, there is reason to believe he will grow beyond. The rim finishing in particular is very promising, in the 82nd percentile for layup efficiency on 11 layup attempts per 100 possessions.

Additionally, Lee’s technique is very strong. He is a weapon both on and off ball due to masterclasses (for age) of timing, footwork, deception, hand movements. His top play types showcase that, being above average efficiency in the following actions: spot up (119 possessions), PNR handler (88), handoffs (66), isolation (62), transition (55), cut (30). That’s a healthy diet you can plug and play into any offensive style. This play style flexibility is only enhanced by his sense of experimentation.

Technique, combined with age, is latent value. It is the key building block to development (link Cason Wallace piece) that Lee can rely upon time and again. Don’t be surprised if he looks like a first round pick come December.

Beyond the RK – Jeremy Roach, Baylor

Transferring from Duke with an extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to players who competed during the COVID-19 pandemic season, new Baylor guard Jeremy Roach knows how to handle the pressure when the lights shine brightest. With the Blue Devils, Roach started 83% of his 130 games over four seasons, advancing to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and the 2nd round in 3 March Madness appearances, bringing the ying in experience to the Baylor backcourt to the yang of the sensational freshman walking onto campus for the first time in VJ Edgecome. With VJ expected to fly around the court as a north-south downhill force of nature out of the gates, what can Baylor fans expect from the other newcomer guard joining the squad this season?

Jeremy Roach, 6’1”, fits the strong mold of Baylor Guard Past with good two-way instincts to make winning plays on defense while staying on attack mode on offense with an efficient all-around game and good feel for running pick-and-roll and ISO sets to create open looks for himself and teammates. Jeremy uses tight ball control handles and sound quick burst body control to beat his initial defender, rise and fire for a jumper, or drive into the paint for a finish at the rim or kickout to the 3pt line. Jeremy’s lethal floater comes in handy as a deadly weapon to keep drop defenses honest when driving at the rim, using mean stop-start hesitation dribble moves, sound hop step footwork, and clean bump-and-finishing packages in the paint to draw AND1 fouls. When Roach catches a rhythm pulling up for tough elbow jumpers and 3pt shots off the dribble, he becomes hard to contain for any defense he faces.

Roach shows effort on the defensive end taking charges, reading passing lanes to jump gaps and use quick hands for deflections, and not giving up on plays by contesting shots from behind even after being beat on the perimeter. Forcing turnovers and flipping fast breaks on their head creates quick and easy 4pt swings for his team. Jeremy will lift his team for entire stretches as everyone feels his presence in every possession on both sides of the floor. In a close win over Xavier on Nov 25, 2022, Jeremy Roach took over in the clutch for Duke as the game slowed down; quieting the crowd at every turn; dominating as on-ball scoring creator; initiating P&R variations with two screeners in Horns and Double-Drag; scoring at all three levels from all over the floor; drilling tough shot after tough shot; showing supreme decision-making feel.

Roach has improved his efficiency across the board in his time in college, nearly cutting his turnover percentage in half over a four year span, with impressive development since his sophomore season, rising from a 32% 3pt shooter in Year 2 to a 43% 3pt shooter on the same number of attempts in Year 4. His overall impact has risen from 0-1 BPM in his first two years to 3.1 BPM as a junior and 7.2 BPM as a senior, with a huge jump on the offensive side to 4.5 OBPM, most likely due to increasing overall efficiency, reducing turnovers, and getting to the line more often.

In his 2023-24 season at Duke, Roach took 32% of his shots at the rim, converting 58% of his 113 FGA in that range. Able to get his shot off from anywhere on the floor, Jeremy spreads his shot attempts out evenly with 33% being 2pt jumpers (116 FGA) and 36% coming from beyond the arc. (126 3PA) Shooting 84% FT% at the line, 43% 3P% from deep, and 59% TS% as a scorer, Roach brings efficient scoring versatility.

Between his smooth floater, efficient shooting at the line and from beyond the arc, defensive instincts, offensive feel, and overall efficient scoring versatility, Jeremy Roach shows many promising touch indicators for future scoring and shooting development while flashing potential two-way impact that could translate to his upcoming final season in college and help him pave a path to the next level, the NBA.

Roshan Potluri – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

I can understand, you’re probably wondering, “I’ve seen him on a couple of mainstream boards where he’s in the late lottery range. Why is Collin Murray-Boyles in a roundtable on the most underrated returners for the 2025 draft class?” Even with the pre-season hype around the sophomore, I believe he is underrated because he should firmly be in the discussion in the top 5 of the 2025 NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at why:

Murray-Boyles had an extremely productive season in his first year with the South Carolina Gamecocks, especially for someone who will be 20.03 on draft day: mere months older than incoming freshmen V.J. Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. Statistically, the production was eye-popping. He was only involved in 45.7% of his team’s possessions when he was on the floor, yet he posted a BPM of +9.5 and a RAPM of +6.1 which are high for a freshman. Standing at 6’7″, he is undersized as a center. Despite this, he produced a 61.6 TS%, 12.0 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 17.1 AST%, and over 20 dunks for the season. Murray-Boyles may be undersized, but he functionally produced on the court to a degree that compares to other high-profile 7-foot freshmen like Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, Evan Mobley, and Karl Anthony Towns.

Another example of his statistical excellence: the only freshmen since 2008 to ever record above a 5 BPM, 60 TS%, 15 DREB%, 10 AST%, 2 STL%, and 20 dunks are Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and Collin Murray-Boyles.

While the production speaks for itself, what does Collin Murray-Boyles truly excel at and why is that worth a potential top 5 selection? The answer lies in his dominant processing on both sides of the ball.

With his feel, high-level strength, balance, and hand-eye coordination, Murray-Boyles brings tenacious defense at the rim and guarding out in space. He’s able to take away a ballhandler’s breathing space with his combination of stifling length, strength, and ground coverage. Murray-Boyles excels as a rim protector, leveraging his massive standing reach and outstanding hand-eye coordination to effortlessly erase shots at the rim. Whether it’s as the primary anchor or rotating over from the weak side, his presence as the rim is undeniable.

The quick decision-making is apparent on the offensive side of the ball as well. He’s able to spray passes to find advantage situations whether it is out of post-ups or DHOs. Oftentimes, he’s able to open up new scoring opportunities just due to the incredible speed and placement that he delivers these passes with. Murray-Boyles does have his flaws with his shot and his size as a big but he has the pathways to become more of a ballhandler and scale as a forward offensively. His potential as a ballhandler is evident in the high school film, although he’s more reliant on getting to his left as a driver. He struggles with ball control and pick-up points when using his right, but his exceptional strength allows him to carve space on drives, compensating when his handle falls short.

The major question with Murray-Boyles’ NBA projection is his shot. I understand the hesitancy, as he’s only shot five 3’s and 67.4% from the charity stripe in his freshman year. While these numbers are poor, from a projection standpoint Murray-Boyles has improved on his touch numbers year over year and has had more shooting volume in his high school career. For context, he shot 51% from the line at Adidas 3SSB in 2022, 63.2% at Wasatch Academy his senior year, and now in college, that number has risen to 67.4%. He shows great touch on non-rim 2 attempts as well, shooting 41.3% with the Gamecocks. The high school and AAU sample only supplements this idea, shooting 53.5% on 28 runners and hooks the year before college. On tape, there’s good energy transfer and fluidity in the mechanics of his face-up jumpers which is a wide majority of his shooting sample in high school. For a player that’s considered a non-shooting big, Murray-Boyles has taken a moderate number of midrange jumpers between his senior year of high school and final year of AAU shooting 50% inside the arc on 22 attempts.

The complete lack of these jumpers within and beyond the arc at South Carolina can be attributed to his role as a screen and roll big. Murray-Boyles needs to work on improving his volume and touch further, but the growth over the past couple of years in tandem with his impressive hand-eye coordination gives me confidence that he can get to a respectable level by the end of his rookie scale deal in the NBA. 

Overall, Murray-Boyles can be an upper-echelon defender in the NBA with his physical traits and feel, showing signs even as an 18-year-old where he would orchestrate South Carolina’s entire defense from the backline. With his sophomore year at South Carolina, his draft stock will be determined by how his budding offensive skills improve, but with what he’s done so far and his feel for the game, I have no reason to believe he can’t reach those heights in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Larry Golden – Kam Jones, Marquette

In the NBA, the game forever evolves due to teams changing playstyles and other teams trying to copy what the successful teams are doing. In order for teams to meet their most potential they must find players to perform well in different roles pertaining to their team. The key is finding players in the draft that can come in and fit right into certain roles and maybe their skill level allows for a multitude of roles. Kam jones is a player in this upcoming draft that I believe can come into the NBA and make things happen because of his utility both on the ball and off.

Last season Kam Jones shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 239 attempts and 109 of those were off the catch making those at 39.4% clip. His shooting is what will make his life easier in the league while drawing closeouts and getting two-feet in the painted area. When watching Jones play he has a good feel for making the next right connective passing read. When the defense failed to make a rotation or if the rotator was a bit late, Jones made them pay finishing at the rim at a 67% clip. I was a little underwhelmed with his percentage from the mid range area(, but in the nba threes and layups are the goal and he made both of those at a great rate.

Secondary ballhander is the role I really see for Jones at the NBA level who can take on some pick and roll reps on the second side of the floor. Jones was used in pick and roll 43% of his usage and ranked in the 85th percentile. His combination of handle and size for the position allows for him to see the floor a bit better and the handle is tight enough to squeeze through congested spots on the floor.

AJ Carter – Clifford Omoruyi, Alabama

Clifford Omoruyi has been well established as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, anchoring a Rutgers defense that has been top 25 in the country each of the past two years before transferring to Alabama this offseason for his 5th year of college. He’s a classic backline rim protector with good length (6’9 barefoot, 7’6 wingspan), athleticism, and a lean but well built frame that can hold up against physicality. 

Omoruyi uses these physical tools to dominate around the rim defensively, finishing 3rd in the country in block percentage at 12.7% last season (via KenPom). He can occasionally get himself in foul trouble but is for the most part fundamentally sound defensively, prioritizing being in the right position over chasing blocks. Omoruyi is also a very capable P&R defender, having both backline rim protection ability with enough agility to cover ground when asked to play more aggressively. He isn’t what you would classify as a “switch big” but generally holds up well enough when defending in space to not get exploited and has shown flashes defending on an island against smaller guards. Omoruyi is also capable of finishing off possessions as a defensive rebounder, posting a strong DRB% of 23.7% for his college career. 

As good as he is defensively, Cliff’s lack of versatility on the offensive end is what has prevented him from getting serious hype as a draft prospect thus far. He can score around the rim at an adequate level, but doesn’t offer much outside of that. He isn’t a threat to score outside the paint and lacks touch on floaters or push shots. Omoruyi also has a paltry 0.4 AST/TO ratio for his career, and hasn’t really shown any progress in that department across his 4 years in college. It’s worth noting that Rutgers has been mostly abysmal offensively for Omoruyi’s career there, and play finishing centers like him are particularly context dependent, often needing to play off of strong creators to be effective – something Rutgers has sorely lacked. 

There’s a little room for hope that Cliff can show more progress playing in what should easily be the best offensive context of his career at Alabama this season, but for the most part we already know what he is – and there’s nothing wrong with that. The offensive limitations put a cap on the ceiling of what type of NBA prospect he can be, but he’s such a good defensive anchor that the bar he has to reach on the other end is pretty low. With just a little bit of improvement to his skillset you can see the pathway to him being a useful NBA backup center, making Cliff Omoruyi someone worth monitoring as a prospect this season. 

Tyler Wilson – KJ Lewis, Arizona

KJ Lewis is a slashing guard built for playoff basketball. In an NBA that seems to grow taller and shoot better with every summer, the words “slashing guard” and “playoff basketball” don’t feel like they belong in the same sentence. Slashing guard? You couldn’t find a wing who can shoot? Range, in both wingspan and scoring threat, has become the conventional draft ethos of the modern day. With that said, might I interest you in a Strong Safety instead?

The sell with KJ begins at his defensive impact. He is listed at 6’4 210 and plays like a moving fire hydrant. There is a Naismithian quality to his game that is undeniable, an intersection of strength and agility that resembles an NFL defensive back more than a two guard. He is able to stand up forwards in the post while smothering smaller guards on the perimeter. The ability to remain strong while sliding around the court is a skill in itself. His feel as a help defender and comfortability in switches was great. Outside of occasional bouts with over-physicality, it was hard to come away with anything substantively negative to say on the defensive side of the ball. KJ was an incredibly effective defensive player as a freshman, in a high major conference, at 19 years old.

In recent years, the going has gotten tough in the National Basketball Association for defense-first guards. The threshold of NBA quality offense has grown so incredibly high that it has become nearly impossible to survive if you are not a credible threat to score the basketball. Lewis’ freshman year usage rate of 16.4 is incredibly low for a potential NBA prospect, particularly a guard. The fact he was a relative non-threat from beyond the arc (34% on 3.4 attempts per 100) does not help matters. The path towards NBA minutes as a low usage non-shooting shooting guard is incredibly thin.

While Lewis did not threaten defenses as a shooter last year at Arizona, there is genuine reason for optimism. He shot 79% from the line in college and despite uninspiring numbers around the rim and in the midrange, his tape going back to Duncanville and the 3SSB circuit shows real touch around the rim with flashes of a functional jumper off the dribble. Shot development is an imperfect and unpredictable science, but the foundation is there for steady growth over time.

As a slasher, Lewis’ athleticism shines yet again with the ability to blow by defenders, take bumps and finish through contact. With an unrefined handle, he was best attacking in a straight line or out of an advantage as a freshman, but his coordination and athleticism allow for a long developmental runway as a creator. KJ was a wrecking ball downhill in high school, and on an Arizona roster that lost nearly all of their starters (sans the immortal Caleb Love) there should be more room for him to explore the studio space as a driver. 

What makes KJ Lewis such an intriguing prospect is his combination of athleticism and feel. That, my friends, buried at the very end of my monologue, is the key to Lewis’ pitch as a prospect. He anticipates actions on defense, acts with decisiveness, takes care of the ball, and reads the floor well as a passer, all while being the best athlete on the court. He is versatile not only in his physical capabilities, but his ability to make quick decisions while playing a physically versatile role. As a freshman, we saw that manifest primarily on the defensive end of the floor, but it is exactly what makes the gamble on his offensive upside so appealing. 

Ahmed Jama – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Despite a late cycle surge onto draft boards this past cycle, 6’6 Colorado State wing Nique Clifford surprised many by returning to school for his 5th and final season of college basketball. Riding the wave of an impressive tournament showing, Clifford was given as good a chance as any veteran college player to work his way into serious draft consideration in a draft class mired in uncertainty. In an attempt to reverse engineer Clifford’s decision to return in lieu of remaining in the draft, I referenced Barttorvik.com to find statistical comparisons to Clifford’s previous season. In Bart Torvik’s 17 season database, Clifford is one of three players to fulfill the statistical query of Defensive Rebounding% ≥ 20; Assist/Turnover Ratio ≥ 1.5; Block % ≥ 2; Steal % ≥ 2; 3PA/100 Possessions ≥ 5; Dunks made ≥ 20. The other two players being TCU’s (now Oklahoma City Thunder) Kenrich Williams and former New Mexico State Aggie Johnny McCants. Unsurprisingly all three players performed nebulous roles, as undersized bigs. The statistical company Clifford keeps is pertinent to his decision to return, because in my opinion, Clifford and his camp recognized unorthodoxy, in NBA decision maker’s eyes, is synonymous with risk. Whether or not this calculation was correct, returning to college has positioned Clifford as one of the best prospects in the country this season. 

Clifford’s unique brand of production is, in my opinion, a byproduct of his high school career, where he played as an undersized big. Despite Clifford measuring at only an 8’6 standing reach at the NBA Combine, the same as 2024 draft entrees Stephon Castle and AJ Johnson, Clifford ranked 45th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. This relentlessness on the glass was made possible by Clifford’s dynamic leaping ability, and more specifically his minimal load time on jumps. Clifford’s exceptional leaping ability, paired with his timing crashing the glass, allows him to contribute as a rebounder in a way virtually no other players his size are. While Clifford’s offensive rebounding rate of 4.5% is comparatively underwhelming, I believe this is a byproduct of Colorado State’s emphasis on limiting opponent transition opportunities at the cost of offensive rebounds. While they ranked 120th in defensive rebounding rate in the country, Colorado State was 302nd in offensive rebounding rate. Clifford’s internal clock as a rebounder manifests as a defender as well, where he’s able to fill a variety of roles, from hounding smaller players at the point-of-attack, chasing shooters off off-ball screens, and making long rotations as a backline defender and providing supplementary rim protection. 

As much confidence as Clifford’s unique basketball background and athletic traits give me, ultimately for a player his size to succeed in the NBA his shot will need to develop into a reliable skill. Clifford logged a pedestrian (relative to his position) 6 3PA/100 possessions this past season. However, his underlying shooting numbers provide reason for optimism. On 82 catch-and-shoot 3 attempts Clifford shot 41.5%, and his solid 38% on pull-up two’s only further substantiates Clifford’s potential as a reliable floor-spacer. Additionally, Colorado State’s playstyle elucidates Clifford’s underwhelming 3-point volume. As effective as Colorado State’s offense was with its given talent (61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Bart torvik), its identity was almost entirely defined by motion heavy Princeton concepts, and this scheme in my opinion came at the cost of spot-up 3 attempts. Playing in almost exclusively 5-out alignments, a vacated paint enabled CSU to finish as perhaps the best cutting team in the country (95th percentile in cutting volume and 99th percentile in cutting efficiency per Synergy). Comparatively Colorado State finished in the 69th percentile in catch-and-shoot frequency. What makes Princeton offenses so reliable is how their concepts allow teams to generate efficient offense often in lieu of traditional ‘advantage creator’, however this emphasis on movement and a ‘creation by committee’ approach can come at the cost of clean catch-and-shoot attempts. And when Clifford’s role specifically is taken into consideration, he often is CSU’s most consistent line-breaking threat as a cutter and ballhandler. 

All in all, Clifford’s previous production, when contextualized with his basketball past and current college role, paint the picture of a player capable of rapidly calibrating his game to fit an NBA role. With Colorado State graduating their top scorer and highest usage player from this past season, Isaiah Stevens, Nique Clifford is poised to cement himself as a need-to-know prospect in the 2025 draft class. 

Stewart Zahn – Grant Nelson, Alabama

Arriving in Alabama via transfer last season, Grant Nelson carried a fair amount of hype with him from NDSU, where he was not only highly productive but also showcased alluring skill and athleticism. With a talented cast of teammates in Tuscaloosa, Nelson took on an entirely different role with the Tide, a role that only further highlighted his versatility. 

No longer a Bison and one of the immediate primary offensive options, Nelson adapted very well to a more supplementary role with Alabama (to be fair, a very well-spaced context). The profile of Nelson’s individual scoring opportunities drastically changed, with his post-up and isolation frequencies slashed (21.1% of opportunities to 5.3%, and 15.6% to almost nothing – 2.2% respectively). To his credit, Grant took it in stride and committed to his role, shifting his focus onto the more off-ball aspects of his position, such as spot-ups, screening/rolling, cuts and transition. In a fast-paced environment like Alabama, Nelson nearly doubled his transition frequency, and Coach Nate Oats even allowed him to run some PnR’s and DHO’s throughout the season. The ball-handling and passing both seem to clear his positional thresholds. Playing large amounts of minutes at center, while not his traditional position, Nelson displayed great technique as a roller. His rolls were fluid, his slips were quick and timely, and his PnP game was a crucial element to Alabama’s patented play-style and spacing. All of this is to say that Nelson’s game appears to have great malleability to provide whatever a team may need from their forward. 

Nelson’s efficiency in most play-types is quite good, with one exception: the 3-point shot. Even as a career 75% free throw shooter (81% last season) with a decent stroke, Nelson has yet to solidify himself as threatening perimeter shooter. Capable, with just enough volume to be respected, Nelson still has plenty of work to do to iron out his shot and turn it into a real weapon. Attacking closeouts is definitely in his wheelhouse as a ball-handler, and a proficient or even average shot from the outside would really open up the court to his driving ability. He even dabbled in some pull-up shooting out of PnR’s, and while the results weren’t great, he would make the correct read to shoot it, and that was encouraging to see.

Defensively, Nelson again was playing out of position for much of the year. It was necessary for Alabama to have their most potent offensive lineup, and Grant held his own on the other end. Undersized as an NBA center (and not what he will be asked to do at the next level), Nelson did exhibit pretty good understanding of positioning himself in relation to the roller. When covering PnP’s, Nelson’s mobility allowed him to get out to the perimeter for worthwhile contests. As the primary rim protector a lot of the time, the awareness, anticipation and reactivity Nelson demonstrated was pretty compelling, and he would use his length and timing to finish the job with a block. That should translate well to his more suitable position as a forward and thus a weakside rim protector, potentially contributing with some additional opposition at the rim. Also a serviceable perimeter defender for his position, Nelson checks a lot of boxes defensively. On top of all that, Grant was hard-nosed as a rebounder all year, and he earned himself Coach Oat’s Hard-Hat award ten times, tied for the most on the team. 

While his stats reflect a quieter year than at NDSU, Nelson proved himself a multi-faceted player at Alabama, with room to improve particularly as a shooter, which would have an amplified effect on the rest of his game. He will be striving to validate last season, and he will have the chance to encompass and maybe even shed the “underrated”  tag throughout the Draft cycle.

Avinash Chauhan – Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

Motiejus Krivas is a big dude with some serious skill. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture him dominating college basketball in the near future.

Let’s start with the bad: Krivas could very well be at the horrific intersection of non-shooting poor finisher and limited defensive upside. He shot a middling 58% at the rim last year, and more worryingly, lineups with Krivas at the 5 consistently scored worse at the rim than with the starter, Oumar Ballo. Arizona shot 4% worse at the rim with Krivas on the floor, and of Arizona’s 5 most common lineups, the two with Krivas fared by far the worst at the rim. Part of this swing is that he was backing up a pretty monstrous rim finisher in Ballo, but it’s pretty inexcusable that Arizona shot just 54% at the rim with Krivas on the floor. He may also appear to be low feel, averaging a whopping 6.1 fouls per 40 with a measly 4% assist rate, he took zero threes on the season, and perhaps worst of all, he garnered just a 3.4% block rate in 20 conference games. If you’re a non-spacer who does not contribute to positive rim scoring, you foul incessantly, and you’re unable to effectively pass or shoot OR protect the rim, what exactly are you doing on the floor?

But while we have 439 minutes of Krivas’s NCAA sample, we also have a 637 minute sample at FIBA U19/U18 Euros/U20 Euros, and 1000 minutes playing for Lithuania’s Zalgiris. Krivas wasn’t terrible in NCAA by any stretch, with a respectable 3.4 BPM in 36 games and an overall 4.5 lineup net rating across all competition. But Krivas was genuinely ridiculous in a number of important international events, and it would be foolish to throw away all the data we have for a low minutes NCAA single season sample.

Let’s talk about the shooting. It sounds pretty insane to say this about a guy who attempted ZERO threes in the NCAA season, but Krivas seems like a decent bet to get some threes up this year. First off, Krivas actually has a decent track record of 3P shooting volume in the past: he’s averaging about 1 3PA/40 across 28 FIBA games, and he put up 61 threes across his final two seasons in Lithuania. Now for the fun stuff: Krivas is a ridiculously good free throw shooter with notable volume (especially considering he is a FT drawing machine). He shot 73% FT in his final season in Lithuania (139/191), 70% at FIBA (78/112), and he’s coming off a 78% FT season at Arizona (49/63). What’s more impressive is that Krivas has progressively become a bit of a touch god around the rim, with a strong diet of runners and hooks sprinkled throughout heavy post up usage. Across his FIBA U20 tourney this summer + Arizona, a whopping 17% of his total shots have come on hooks, making them on a staggering 58% (18/31). Bart has him at 13/29 on long 2s at Arizona.

To reiterate, we’re talking about a 7’2 mf who was putting up 3s in Europe as a teenager, is pushing the high 70s FT on extremely great volume, and has the proclivity to take and make hooks at a high rate. And he’s still technically a teenager. Again, it’s never a great idea to bet on a guy who literally took no 3s in an NCAA season. But shooting dev seems uniquely feasible for this particular case.

Personally, I don’t care too much if he shoots or not, since he’s also an absolutely insane rebounder. Krivas is coming off a 14.7% OREB/22.8% DREB season in NCAA: there have been only 9 drafted players since 2008 to match those numbers across their career. It gets crazier: Krivas averages the most rebounds per 40 in the TWENTY EIGHT YEAR HISTORY of the U18 Euros (10+ mpg). His 21.8 rebounds per 40 is well ahead of 2nd place Enes Freedom (20.2), with Usman Garuba (18.6) and Marc Gasol (17.7) not too far behind. Again, pretty much every good Euro prospect has played in the U18 Euros, including so many notable bigs since 1996. It is an absolutely huge deal that he is the most productive rebounder on a minute basis in the entirety of available data for this tournament. 

He has similarly crushed the U20 Euros and Lithuania Pro League: he put up an unreal 19% OREB and 28% DREB across 48 games of LKL+NKL. He isn’t a Zach Edey/DeJuan Blair level rebounding prospect given the lower comp level, but Krivas really isn’t THAT far off. Throw on his massive 7’5 wingspan, and Krivas is pretty easily the best rebounding prospect in the class if he declares, and should be one of the best rebounders in the league from day 1.

Rebounding is often a measure of physicality, but in Krivas’ case, I think it’s a unique look at his unreal anticipation and impressive feel for the game. Again, his 4.2% assist/1.4% steal/6.1 FC may seem horrifying, but make no mistake: Krivas has a legitimately great feel for the game. This is a guy who has shown a history of racking up steals at a pretty great rate for his size: across ~ 100 Lithuanian league games, he was above 2% steal. He averaged ~ 1.5 steals/40 across all FIBA tourneys. Much of this is just being at the right place at the time: he’s able to anticipate reads through gaps and use his length to make easy pickoffs. But he’s also a legit great passer. He can make pretty solid reads out of the post, though he can be overambitious and thereby turnover prone (>17% TO in 100 NKL/LKL games).

But his passing feel is especially demonstrated through his FIBA numbers. Despite a middling 0.7 A:TO in FIBA and 4% assist rate in NCAA, Krivas has put up 12.5% assist, 20.4% assist, and 14.2% assist in his last 3 FIBA stretches. And before you question the value of FIBA Euros in ascertaining playmaking upside, consider an all time passing development case in Domantas Sabonis, who was a complete non passer in all NCAA and European pro league games but had a 7 game stretch where he was a productive primary initiator for Lithuania’s FIBA U18 team. With a consistent steal and assist track record, coupled with his sheer size and length, Krivas has a pretty cool combination of tools and feel that could lead to seemingly unexpected offensive development.

The list of strengths is getting a bit ridiculous. This is a dude who can rebound at an Edey-lite level, potentially shoot, generate steals and assists, and has one of the strongest FIBA production profiles ever. After all, he was 35 PER at U18 Euros, 35 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney), and 37.6 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney). 

It’s probably important to reiterate that Mr. Krivas is a 7’2 individual with a giant 7’5 WS. I once wrote about the history of underclassmen who measured at the NBA combine with a WS over 7’4 WS. It is an insane list with an insane hit rate. Oh, and he might sound like an uber slow Euro big with painful verticality and terrible lateral movement. Well the verticality is probably true, but Krivas legitimately moves very well. In fact, he measured at 3.55 s for the sprint and 11.88 for the agility drill, which was significantly better than his peer Aday Mara (4.04 and 12.81, respectively) and somewhat comparable to Pacome Dadiet (3.47 and 12.29) and Salaun (3.63 and 11.84). This is obviously a tongue in cheek comparison, since Dadiet and Salaun are definitely faster and prolly just didn’t know how to game the system effectively (hence their massive leaps at the combine), but their relative closeness to Krivas still underscores how well he can move. With his incredible wingspan, solid movement for size, and strong feel (adept steal and pass generator), Krivas theoretically shouldn’t be much of a defensive liability. In fact, most of his positive net rating was via defense: Arizona’s defense was 6.4 points better/100 possessions with Krivas on the court, and 7.7 p/100 against t100 comp. Much of this was through his rebounding goodness: opposing teams rebounded 3.3% worse and shot 3% worse at the rim with Krivas on the court. 

Herein lies the issue: Krivas had an undeniably positive effect on defense this past year, but most of that came from mitigating second chance points and less from actually blocking shots. Despite his 7’5 WS, he measured with a paltry 22 inch standing vert that would be amongst the lowest in the NBA. He clocked a pedestrian 12.9% HC dunk rate, and had just a 4% block rate this year. He’s definitely a physical player capable of backing down guys in the post en route to a heavy postup diet, and he’s put up ~ 50 FTr in nearly every context; but the lack of verticality is somewhat of a stifler. I think it’s fair to project a bit of improvement: he was hovering above 6% block in Lithuania, and he’s averaged a whopping 4 blocks per 40 (~10% block) across 14 FIBA games in the last two years. I am well aware that the NCAA and NBA are far different than FIBA tourneys (where bigs are much more prone to dominate given the differential rules) and Lithuania (LKL and NKL have “grown men” but its a pretty weak league generally). It’s not a 1:1 comparison, but is it not fair to project some improvements for one of the most productive youth FIBA careers we’ve ever seen?

Not every latent strength has to actualize for Krivas to return legit NBA value. European bigs tend to be a bit of a mystery box, even when we have significant track records for them in various youth simulacrums. The common thread does seem to be rebounding: from Sabonis, Mirotic, and Gasol to Freedom, Zubac, and Vucevic, there are tons of elite rebounding/productive Euro centers that found a role (because of their feel, productivity, and outlier rebounding). We know Krivas is productive, we know he’s going to bring immediate offensive and defensive value with his rebounding, and we know that he has exceptional length, agility, and feel for position. But what’s stopping him from reaching the path of these European contemporaries?  Is path to being a quasi-Vucevic possible for Krivas, especially since Vuc has a similar WS? Can he be a Nikola Mirotic type? If he stays in school a year or two more, can he emerge as a virtuoso passer on par with Sabonis and Gasol? Or will he never really put it together and have a Garuba type career? 

I think there’s some very conceivable flaws with Krivas, some that he may never be able to overcome. But I think we’re also completely undermining a sneaky upside tail, one that may be particularly manifestable given the departure of starter Oumar Ballo. 7’5 wingspans do not grow on trees, nor do prospects with long ass wingspans have the feel or outlier rebounding or historic production profile of Krivas. One of the greatest producers in FIBA youth history is potentially eligible for the draft, and it’s about time he’s given his due credit.

The post Roundtable: Underrated Returners appeared first on Swish Theory.

The 3-point revolution was always coming to the NBA. It took a while, but by the time Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors ascended, the train had already left the station. Curry merely became the face of the movement, and why not? Whether fans realized it at the time, his volume and efficiency from deep wasn’t the foundation, it was the result. He moved like nobody else, ripping off absurd dribble combinations with the ball or re-defining the art of screen-usage away from it. But he is not the sole forefather of modern hoops. Curry is an anomaly. The greats always are.

Caitlin Clark’s impending selection at #1 by the Indiana Fever in the 2024 WNBA Draft is not the genesis of the next era of women’s basketball; it’s been coming for a while. The Clark-less 2023 WNBA season set viewership records all over the place, and will continue to do so as the next generation of hoopers set to dazzle us. Just look at the talent-pool that will remain in the NCAA next season.

The talent boom is here, and as evolution goes, it was made possible by the singular talents of the past, names who new women’s hoops fans (many introduced by Clark) may not be familiar with, but are unknowingly reaping the benefits of. 

Caitlin Clark The Phenomenon is a cocktail of the work done by past legends, which has led to exploding interest in the women’s game, in part thanks to social media, which fixates on her must-see matchups at Iowa, which needed a formidable dancing partner. But the key ingredient is Caitlin Clark The Player, as dazzling as she is effective.

The ease with which Clark flings 30-footers both off-the-dribble and off-the-catch creates defensive emergencies near half-court. Clark then has both the ball-handling flexibility and passing chops to access the best response to any coverage, not to mention, she’s six-feet tall. In each of her last three seasons at Iowa, she grabbed over seven boards a game, which ignited the Hawkeyes’ transition game thanks to Clark’s ability to throw 70-foot outlets for layups. She is a terrifying offense unto herself.

None of her individual skills are entirely unprecedented, but the whole package just might be. Caitlin Clark likely isn’t the greatest WNBA prospect ever, nor the greatest raw talent ever. But she is an anomaly, and that’s why she’s going #1.

Lucas Kaplan

2. Cameron Brink, Stanford

Cameron Brink’s intersection of 2-way paint dominance and scoring versatility is virtually unprecedented. A likely #1 pick in a typical draft class, she pairs a refined drop big skillset with touch indicators that suggest elite playfinishing upside on the other end. 

On offense, Brink projects to contribute primarily with the ball out of her hands. She served as an offensive focal point for Stanford, taking on a heavy playmaking load (2.8 assists/2.4 turnovers in 25 mpg) operating out of the post, but it seems more likely she evolves into a do-it-all connector at the next level. Perhaps not the physical outlier it takes to be a go-to WNBA post scorer, her touch from the perimeter and reliability as an interior finisher should allow Brink to maintain a diverse shot profile. 

While her jumper inconsistency points to limitations as a scorer, Brink has all the tools to be effective on a play-to-play basis. She dominates the offensive glass to the tune of three boards per game, and can be deployed in a variety of ways. In any given set, Brink can be found setting physical screens, spacing from three or rolling to the basket, effective across the board even if not elite. Most of all, Brink plays with a good sense of how to bend a defense, and plays with her trademark intensity to carry ideas out.

Brink is a monster rim protector, leading the NCAA in blocks while being second in defensive boards. At 6’4’’ with a 6’8″ wingspan, Brink can cover massive amounts of territory quickly, and she pairs this with an aggressive help style, not afraid to leave her feet. This can lead to foul trouble, with three or more fouls for the majority of her games this season, but also allows her to be an intimidating deterrent to keeping out of her lane.

The figures are staggering for Brink: opponents shot a miniscule 39% at the rim when she was on the floor compared to 54% when she was off. Stanford gave up 77 points per 100 possessions with her on the court compared to 95 when she was off. It is not just the tape – where she can be seen soaring and destroying shot attempts – which prove she can lead a very good WNBA defense. Let Brink sit in drop defense, or even a high drop and let her cover the entire paint. While her lateral mobility is good rather than great, her length, effort and timing make it so that hardly matters.

Cameron Brink finds herself at #2 for two reasons: Caitlin Clark is in this class, and no other player can contribute as much on day one while still providing sky-high upside. As dominant as they get in the interior, Brink will terrorize opponents for years to come. Should her shot continue to develop and offense branch out, it is difficult to project how high Brink’s impact could be. Don’t underestimate the floor or the ceiling.

Oscar

3. Rickea Jackson, Tennessee

To keep it simple, Rickea Jackson is a walking bucket. However, her scoring arsenal is the absolute opposite of simple. Jackson’s top 4 scoring possession types this season were pick and roll, post-ups, spot-ups, and transition. Her scoring frequency in these possessions goes as follows: 86 pick and roll possessions, 86 post-ups, 84 spot-ups, and 80 transition possessions. If you created a pie chart of Rickea’s scoring distribution, she would have four nearly even slices in these four categories, which is incredibly rare for dominant scorers. What makes this even more impressive is that she is labeled “good” or above in all 4 (being 70th percentile or higher in three out of the four). There are players who are jack of all trades, master of none as scorers, but I would say that Rickea is a jack of all trades with the potential of becoming a master of all.

Another stat that puts her scoring dominance into perspective: Rickea Jackson has led her respective teams (Mississippi State and Tennessee) in scoring for the last five seasons. Looking closer at her scoring tools, Rickea is currently blossoming into a three-level scorer. She is one of the best rim scorers in this draft, converting on 66.4% of her 197 attempts around the basket. Jackson displays excellence in both finishing off drives and on post-ups, as her touch and ability to finish through contact are quite advanced. She has incredibly impressive stride length, burst and functional strength, allowing her to get into the lane with ease. Rickea combines these eye-popping athletic traits with her technical skills in generating advantages off rip-throughs and ball control when making finishing adjustments. This culmination of abilities is an absolute nightmare for any matchup she faces, and is a big reason for her general scoring dominance.

When the rim is rarely walled off by opposing defenders, Rickea can go to her favorite counter: the short mid-range. Jackson shot 42.7% on 96 short mid-range attempts this year, which is such a vital counter for scorers in the WNBA. She does a great job of recognizing when to initiate contact to get into these shots and is very good at perceiving open shooting windows. Jackson is also comfortable pulling up for long 2s as well, and she was in the 66th percentile in efficiency on these shots this past season. As for her outside jumper, Rickea Jackson has made lots of progress on this shot in the last five seasons. Since her freshman year, she has nearly tripled her volume of three point attempts while shooting 32.6% from outside this past season. She profiles as primarily a catch and shoot threat from deep, though she has shown flashes of three point pull-up shooting as well.

On the other side of the ball, Jackson is a solid wing/forward defender who is capable of taking on tough assignments. Jackson’s large offensive load has led to some inconsistencies from her defense in the past, but she seems to be finding the intersection between the high offensive volume and steady defense. She’s a quick lateral mover and is able to use her length to disturb ball handlers. Defensive rebounding is a strong suit of Jackson’s, as she aggressively attacks the glass and can get rebounds over taller players. 

All in all, Rickea Jackson’s game should translate seamlessly to the WNBA level, and the reasons above are why I believe she deserves to be a top 3 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft.

Josh Abercrombie

4. Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina

Kamilla Cardoso is always in control while staying dynamic, executing an essential role for the national champion South Carolina Gamecocks. The 6’7’’ big was the low post hub for Dawn Staley’s squad, posting and reposting with perhaps the best hands in class. Despite not starting until her senior season, Cardoso did not miss a beat, putting up per 100 possession numbers of 31 points, 21 rebounders and 5.3 blocks on 61% true shooting.

Cardoso’s size and athleticism bode well for her ability to fit in at the next level. She uses her length to wrangle in awry passes or block difficult shots, but more importantly has the sensibility for how her presence fits into scheme. She does not linger with the ball nor get complacent on the defensive side, making quick, fruitful decisions for her team.

In particular, I am optimistic in Cardoso’s ability to be a high-low threat. Her skill in the post allows her to get to the backboard, slipping past her defender, in the 88th percentile for layup efficiency on 289 attempts. But just as important is her passing acumen, slinging the ball with velocity and accuracy either to shooters spotting up form low post or entry passes from the high post. This ability prevents hard help from any angle.

Cardoso may not set the agenda on either side like the players higher up on this list. But she is extremely likely to be a useful WNBA player, already proven to execute at the highest adequacy possible at the collegiate level. Her interior dominance will translate, as will her general athleticism and feel for the game. A high floor prospect who can give starter minutes right away, I view her as the #3 player in the class, #4 on our consensus board.

Matt Powers

5. Aaliyah Edwards, Connecticut

In her senior season for the UConn Huskies, Aaliyah Edwards was the team’s unsung hero in their run to the Final 4. Bringing an incredibly versatile skillset to the table, she averaged 32.6 points, 17.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.1 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 100 possessions this season. Edwards has a unique way of leaving an impact on every single possession, boasting a degree of role malleability that is only rivaled by the game’s brightest stars.

Offensively, Edwards was often seen as both a playmaking hub out of the high post and as a play finisher. With excellent touch and a knack for creating contact, post-up scoring has become a massive strength for her. Over 117 post-up possessions this year, she shot 67.4% and generated 1.197 points per possession (PPP), ranking in the 96th percentile in efficiency. By scoring in the low, mid and high post alike, she can be deployed as a scorer from many spots despite her lack of a three point shot. As a primarily standstill shooter, she converted 36.4% of her 83 long mid-range attempts this season. This standstill jumper threat allows her to attack bigs off the dribble when they close out too aggressively, allowing her to get into her driving game.

Within UConn’s delay sets, Edwards was almost always the team’s ball handler at the top of the key when in the game. She excelled at making schemed reads in the flow of the offense, such as executing high-low passes, hitting 45 cutters in stride, and executing dribble handoffs. Her excellence in dribble handoff situations stems from an outstanding ability to make contact on screens and a keen sense for angles. Moreover, her capability to keep the ball in these situations and drive to the basket sets her apart from most DHO bigs. Coordination, functional handle, touch around the rim, and the ability to pass out are essential for a DHO big, and she absolutely exceeds in all of these requirements.

Defensively, Edwards did a magnificent job this season anchoring the second-best Power 5 defense in the country. One area that she excels in is her pick and roll coverage versatility, as she is capable of executing nearly any coverage there is. She can temporarily switch onto ball-handlers, hard hedge, and play a deep drop due to her combination of mobility and feel for space. When defending drives, her strength, lateral quickness, and active hands all pop off the screen, as she is able to shut off potential layups around the basket. She is also a solid rim protector when playing down low, though her 3.5% block rate may not stack up to some of the other anchors in this draft. As a result, she makes up for a lower block rate with a 3.1% steal rate. Edwards is great at intercepting poor post entry passes, a microskill that will certainly translate to the pros. Finally, her help instincts are very strong, as she consistently makes necessary rotations to prevent points from being scored.

Josh Abercrombie

6. Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State

Jacy Sheldon is a dynamic, offensively skilled guard with the Ohio State Buckeyes. She brings great two-way value and will slide in well for many different team constructs, as she figures to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft after a solid college career.

Offensively, Sheldon fills the role of “combo guard” to a tee, being capable of playing across both guard positions with her ability to be a value-add at the point guard position by helping to move the ball in transition, make solid reads in early offense, and get a team into their sets. However, in my opinion she trends more towards being an off-guard with her ability to shoot the ball from range at a steady clip (37% from three on 5 attempts a contest this past season) and mainly scoring-focused play on that end. Although just 5’10”, she plays much bigger than her size offensively, showcasing the ability to get downhill and finish through contact. I think offensively Sheldon is truly a three-level scorer.

Defensively, although Sheldon’s steal numbers are slightly inflated due to Ohio State’s propensity to utilize a full court press as their main defense, she is still very active and disruptive on that end. She makes the most of her great physical tools and basketball instincts to stay in front of drivers, provide effective help defense, and monitor the passing lanes to pick off errant passes. Sheldon’s screen navigation skills are also solid, and just like Sheldon plays bigger than her height offensively, she plays longer than her length defensively, mixing her speed and athleticism to cause issues for offensive players.

Jacy Sheldon comes into the WNBA a ready-made player that will be able to contribute immediately. With the star power at the top of the draft she may not pop off the proverbial page the same way, and superstar upside is more than likely not in the cards. However, as a solid player who brings a winning mentality and great skillset as a player, Sheldon is almost guaranteed to be in the league for a long time.

Corban Ford

7. Angel Reese, LSU

Angel Reese’s strengths are obvious when she’s on the court: she plays with determination and she’s a leader. While these are soft skills, I’d argue they inform her technique. Reese uses her energy and exuberant posture to effect all events, big or small. Her passing stands out, but more the chaos of it, as she whips the ball across the court, totally unexpected. No player in the class (with an obvious exception) is more capable of keeping the opponent on their toes, or else they’re in trouble.

The cornerstone of Reese’s game, however, is the defense. Producing three stocks per game, Reese applies her strength with force, attacking the ball no matter the location. There is an elegance to her chaos that puts the opponent on their back heels. This frenetic intensity is perfect to keep the offense guessing, deterring shots through intimidation as much as technique. But, especially on defense, she has the latter, too.

The offense is not as polished, though ‘not as polished’ still provided 19 points per game. The finishing is the concern, at only 42nd percentile at the rim, and ultimately keeps her out of my top 5. But you’re drafting her for her defense, anyways, and she still maintained average or better efficiency on post-ups (though barely), putbacks, transition and cuts. She can win on the offensive end too, purely through effort.

Angel Reese’s athleticism at 6’3’’ and effort to produce make her a worthy first round pick. If the touch somehow comes around some more (she’s up to 73% from the line), the 2023 NCAA tournament champion and Most Outstanding Player would be worthy of top six consideration.

Matt Powers

8. Alissa Pili, Utah

There are few more fun players in college basketball than Alissa Pili. While short for her position as a power forward, Pili more than makes up for it with her strength and creative application of that strength. In any given possession she could be found twirling into an opponent’s stomach, either carving space for a drive, sealing off in the post, getting position for rebounds, etc. She has a knack for jumping at the perfect moment to snag a board from a big with better position. She is one of the most compelling players to watch for these reasons.

Oh, she is also a bucket. Averaging over 20 points for the second straight season, Pili shot at the 89th percentile at the rim, 93rd percentile off the catch and 95th percentile off the dribble. She was 89th percentile at the rim and 82% from the line. Raising her three point attempts from 2 to 4 per game, cashing 40%, she provided valuable spacing for the Utah Utes.

This scoring and, especially, spacing is essential to her success at the WNBA level. Her clear weakness is foot speed in space, where I’d be anxious to see Pili guarding anywhere near the perimeter (even in spite of her well-timed swipes). But spacing the floor to this degree means you have to beat Pili at her game first.

Pili is not just a dazzlingly fun watch, but also flat out can play. Her team was 20 points better in net rating with her on the court, and she was top ten in the country in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). The W adaptation might take a minute, but the upside – especially as a scorer – is worth the first-round shot. 

Matt Powers

9. Nyadiew Puoch, Southside Flyers

One imagines Nyadiew Puoch’s WNBA role similar to that with the Southside Flyers: low usage, high activity. Despite showing some signs of handle, passing and scoring, there are too many rough edges in Puoch’s current game, technical details that need fixing, to expect any significant contribution right away. But if she could keep developing, perhaps by continuing to play overseas after being drafted, there is the outline of a solid WNBA contributor.

Puoch’s athleticism is the ceiling-raiser, with great mobility which combines well with consistent effort. In particular this shows on the defensive end, where her long wingspan and constant motion make areas of the court treacherous for her opponent. This athleticism and effort can be misguided, however, applied at the wrong time by accidentally walling off a teammate or turning her head at the wrong time. Normal issues for a 19 year old playing in a pro league, but issues nonetheless that would limit her WNBA immediacy.

Similar to her defensive strengths, the offense runs through activity and event creation, and also needs some polish. She is a constant blur of motion at her 6’3’’ size, circumventing an opponent with ease on cuts or in transition. While she should have no issue creating looks with this activity, and, it should be noted, her flashes of handle, it’s the finishing that is questionable. Puoch only shot 40% from the field, even while receiving these easier looks heading towards the rim. Her 67% from the line suggests the same: there is something to work with, even if the current result isn’t perfect.

Puoch has displayed this upside through scoring outbursts here and there, and, most importantly, pushes her creativity through sometimes adventurous passes or drives. But when it clicks, it really clicks, and one imagines the potential should her accuracy and feel improve even only a little bit. Early minutes would be difficult to come by, but with any additional development, Puoch could make her presence felt. If one of the handle, shot or passing continues to improve, Puoch could see real starter minutes. For this reason, she is a Swish first round pick.

Matt Powers

10. Charisma Osborne, UCLA

Charisma Osborne has one skill representative of her overall game: she is the best screen runner in class. When you try to knock Osborne out of a play, she hits you with speed first, getting low with flexibility but keeping her strength to stay on her path. She accelerates from there, with textbook closeout form. She has the tools, and the feel, and the technique. And you don’t want to mess with her.

Osborne was the best player on the 27-7 Bruins, where they had a +49 net rating (yes, net rating not plus-minus) when she was on the court, 21 points better than when off. While her three point percentage is disappointing for a guard, she is not without technique: she shot a shocking 90% from the line and an effective 71st percentile on 140 off-the-dribble jumpers. On 110 spots up, 91st percentile. She was 71st percentile on finishes, too: maintaining good but not great touch. When you take into consideration the shot context, her 32% three point percentage looks a lot less concerning.

But the real plus-value comes from everything else. The defense and defensive versatility (2x Pac-12 All Defense) mixed in with the ball distribution (2.1 assist to turnover ratio) make her the perfect connector. She can spark an offense by driving, too, and was strong out of the pick and roll (85th percentile on 100 possessions). 

While she faced some issues with scoring consistency due to lacking access to bankable buckets, she is always consistent in her effort and finding other ways to contribute. She may not look like a franchise cornerstone, but Osborne can raise the ceiling of a very good team, or keep a very good defense tied together with her activity and athleticism. These factors all make Osborne a Swish first round pick, and even higher on my personal board.

Matt Powers

11. Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech

Elizabeth Kitley’s draft stock will be a tricky evaluation for WNBA teams to make. She was one of the most productive and dominant players in all of college basketball last year, but she suffered a season ending ACL tear late in the 2022-2023 NCAA season, putting her ability to play her rookie season in jeopardy. Despite this setback, I believe that Kitley deserves to be a first round pick and fully expect her to bounce back stronger than ever.

Kitley’s superpower comes in post scoring – she racked up 303 post-up possessions this year and scored 300 points from these possessions. Before she even receives the ball, Kitley has an innate sense of when to duck in and where to initiate contact to carve out easy scoring opportunities. After Kitley receives the ball, she gets to put her impeccable footwork on display. Her patented move is her Dirk fadeaway, as her height and precise touch makes this an absolutely unguardable move. On 109 mid-range jumpers this season (mostly Dirk fades), Kitley shot a whopping 54.1%, including 59.5% on 37 long mid-range attempts. Pairing this with her 70.7% shooting around the rim, and defenses are almost forced to double her.

Teams all year had to pack the paint and double Kitley from a variety of locations, triggering double teams from areas all over the court. Some bigs struggle to respond to this, but Kitley did a good job of taking advantage of the attention she received. She showed a solid feel of passing out of double teams this season, as she displayed the ability to hit the open player to create a numbers advantage for Virginia Tech. 

Detractors of Kitley’s pro prospects cite her lack of mobility on defense as a potential swing skill for her. I am a bit less worried about this, as whatever team selects her will likely play her in a deep drop like she played at Virginia Tech. Even when she does have to cover drivers in face-up situations, she is fairly good at flipping her hips if she gets initially beat. While around the rim, Kitley is a great shot-blocker, using her length and great ball tracking to erase potential scoring opportunities. 

Kitley may not end up being a team’s primary scorer like she was for Virginia Tech, but I fully trust her ability to scale down and provide productive minutes for any team that selects her. She has the upside to take advantage of switching defenses with her post work, and can still be a big time late-clock scoring threat due to her fadeaway.

Josh Abercrombie

12. Celeste Taylor, Ohio State

Celeste Taylor is a defensive minded guard entering the draft from Ohio State after a solid college career that included stops at both Texas and Duke. The 5’11” guard is a chaos agent on the defensive end, generating deflections and steals at a high rate and using solid lateral quickness and speed to keep in front of the main offensive perimeter players of opposing teams, staying attached even through various off-ball actions and around any screens that she may encounter. Taylor’s defense is extremely impactful, and that skillset alone will guarantee her rotation minutes at the next level.

Offensively, Taylor’s swing skill is her jump shot. Once a relatively big weakness, she has improved her outside shooting each year over her college career (from 28% to 33% from three), and in addition to doing so she has also grown as a shot maker and advantage creator on the offensive end. Her mid-range game is smooth and she does a good job operating in that space, especially off of ball screens, and she can find open teammates adequately. With that being said, as disruptive as Taylor is defensively, the offensive game will have to improve to achieve the higher end outcome as a player in the WNBA.

Taylor will be a positive player with her defensive versatility and ability to function as a very scalable role player at the next level. Her improvement as a jump shooter suggests that there is continued growth to be had, and if she is able to continue to develop that in addition to being an advantage creator defensively, then Celeste Taylor can prove to be one of the great steals of draft, either late in the first round, or early in the second.

Corban Ford

13. Leila Lacan, Angers

Leila Lacan ends up as the #13 prospect on our big board, but this was not a consensus placement. I touted Lacan as the #5 prospect on my personal board, easily the highest of any contributor.

Even Lacan’s detractors will note the sell is quite easy. Lacan will turn 20 on June 2, and has been a key contributor for the French club Angers, which competes in the country’s top-tier league. In both league and FIBA play, Lacan has shown glimpses of every skill you could want from a big-time combo guard at 5’11”.

Lacan is a plus-athlete for her size, winning at the offensive point-of-attack by adding a plus-handle to impressive speed and length. From there, Lacan has shown the ability to hit any passing read that the defense gives her, whether it’s a pocket pass, a skip, hitting cutters, you name it. On the other end, she puts her tools to good use, leading the French league in steals this season with 3.2 a game versus just 2.5 fouls.

But as a devout believer, I admit the sell against Lacan in the first-round is also easy to make. She’s 19, yes, but her youth serves more as a point of comfort vs. genuine excitement. It’s a reason to ignore her shooting in the low-40s from two and, despite multiple games with deep, pull-up triples, shooting in the low-30s from three.

Lacan is the shiny mystery box of the 2024 WNBA Draft, a young prospect whose highlight reel is deserving of a lottery pick. Only 19! Perhaps I’ve been duped, too focused on what could be than what actually is. There’s no guarantee Leila Lacan puts it all together; for all the intrigue, she’s hardly ahead of schedule as a prospect. 

So, who’s gonna take the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

14. Helena Pueyo, Arizona

Helena Pueyo, a 5th year senior out of Arizona, has a case for best perimeter defender in this year’s WNBA draft. Her ability to make plays defensively jumps out both on film and the stat sheet, averaging a staggering 4.1 stocks (steals + blocks) in her final year of college. She’s able to rack up steals, blocks, and deflections so easily thanks to incredible hand-eye coordination and natural defensive instincts off the ball. 

Pueyo also developed into a solid offensive player over her time in college, albeit a low usage one. She’s a dependable shooter from both 3pt and midrange, capable of making shots both off-the-dribble and in catch and shoot scenarios. She’s also a good passer, despite not being a great creator overall, and is very adept at keeping the ball moving and making good decisions within the flow of offense. Helena’s real strength offensively, though, is as a finisher, where she made real growth as an upperclassmen. Despite mediocre finishing numbers throughout her first 3 years in college Pueyo shot an outstanding 75% at the rim her final two seasons, one of the highest numbers in this year’s draft. Overall, her lack of high-end ball handling or athleticism holds Pueyo back from being a threatening on-ball creator, but she has a very strongskill set for fitting into a complementary offensive role. 

Pueyo doesn’t project to be a star, but she’s very good at what she does. Between her tenacious defense and the offensive skillset to compliment other players, it’s not hard to envision her as a reliable perimeter role player in the W. 

AJ Carter

15. Nika Mühl, Connecticut

When you think of Nika Mühl’s game two things immediately come to mind: passing and defense. A 2x Big East DPOY, Mühl is an outstanding perimeter defender. She doesn’t rack up steals at as high of a rate as other guard defenders, but her ability to defend one-on-one is about as good as it gets. She’s hard to create separation against on the perimeter, fights over screens well, and isn’t afraid to play with toughness and physicality when cross-matched onto larger players. Despite UConn losing to Iowa in the tournament this year, Mühl’s defense against Caitlin Clark was truly outstanding in that game. Mühl is also an incredible passer and playmaker for others, backed by the fact that she’s UConn’s all-time leader in assists – obviously a tremendous accomplishment at a school as storied as UConn. 

The main area of weakness for Mühl right now is as a scorer. She isn’t very aggressive looking for her own shot and actually has more assists than points scored over the last 2 seasons, which is rare to see. The positive for Mühl though is that she does possess enough of a skillset as a scorer to where teams still have to respect her. She shot 36% from 3pt for her career at UConn including over 40% as a senior, so it’s not as if defenses can just leave her open on the perimeter. She also finishes at the rim at an above average rate and is comfortable making an open mid-range jumper, so it’s clear that Mühl can make shots from various spots on the floor when needed despite not looking to shoot much. 

All things considered Mühl has a valuable skill set despite never posting eye-popping numbers in college. She’s an outstanding defender and passer, can make open shots, and is backed by a very impressive college resume. That package of skills and pedigree makes Mühl an intriguing prospect to watch and worthy of a draft pick. 

AJ Carter

16. Dyaisha Fair, Syracuse

From the WNBA’s inaugural season in 1997 until the 2022-2023 season, ten players had joined the illustrious 3,000 points club. Seven of them went on to be all-stars in the WNBA, with many of them establishing themselves as some of the WNBA’s best. This past season, two new players entered the 3,000 points club: projected #1 overall pick Caitlin Clark and Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair. 

Selecting one of the most productive scorers in college basketball’s long history seems to be good draft process, and it also seems to be strong process to select one of the most prolific pull-up shooters in college basketball history as well. Dyaisha Fair fits into both of these categories. Fair was first in the country in points per game off pull-up jumpers this season at 10.6 ppg, 1.3 ppg higher than the tie for second place between Caitlin Clark and Juju Watkins (the top two scorers in all of college basketball). Among the leaders in pull-up three point attempts per game, Fair ranks second overall in pull-up three point attempts per game while shooting an incredible 39.7% on these looks. The next player shooting as efficiently or more efficiently on pull-up threes as Fair ranks 29th in pull-up 3 point frequency, shooting under half the amount of attempts of Fair. She is able to get into these looks off a variety of size-up combinations, but her most effective move may be her mis-direction stepback. This move blends synergistically with her effective between the legs move, which she often uses to open up driving lanes. 

More on pull-up shooting, Fair’s pull-up mid-range continues to be an important counter for her. Fair is more than capable of knocking down incredibly difficult mid-range attempts, often patiently double clutching on shots to avoid the outstretched arms of her defender. The threat of her mid-range helps her create easier looks around the basket, as defenders have to guard incredibly close to her at all times. Fair is a very creative finisher around the basket, making super difficult adjustments to open up looks at the basket.

The skill that brings together her incredible mix of scoring tools is her unbelievable handle. Fair’s career highlights are full of ankle breakers that would be many players’ best career plays. She is unbelievably shifty with the ball in her hands, creating easy driving lanes and open shooting windows. However, she is also more than capable of creating for others. One of my favorite microskills of Fair’s is her ability to rise up into a jumper, only to throw a dump-off pass at the apex of her jump. Her scoring prowess demands tons of attention from the defense, and she is quite good at finding teammates in advantageous scoring positions.

People that are low on Fair always talk about her short stature, but this has never stopped Fair from reaching the highest heights in basketball. They also tend to cite her defense as a weakness going forward, but Fair has some valuable defensive traits that will go a long way for her. For starters, Fair is a ball-hawk on defense, often making tough plays on the ball in passing lanes. Her quickness and instincts allow her to make these plays, and on the ball she is able to disturb ball-handlers with her quick hands. Fair is finally beginning to deservingly receive praise as a potential WNBA prospect, and I believe she can make an instant impact for any team that selects her.

Josh Abercrombie

17. Isobel Borlase, Adelaide

It is an uphill battle to be a dribble-pass-shoot threat in the WNBA, given the saturation of talent at the top. It is very difficult to get on-ball reps, especially as a young player, which gives me some hesitancy in projecting Isobel Borlase to get the development she needs against the highest competition in the world. But she has shown flashes of elite scoring and productivity against professional competition that suggests the payoff may be worth it.

As a starter on the Adelaide Lightning, Borlase gets daily experience playing next to and against WNBA players, most notably having as teammate the Chicago Sky’s Brianna Turner. While her outside shooting efficiency has been mediocre – only shooting 28% from three and 74% from the line – she has shown real signs of rim finishing through attacking the rim on the move. 

Borlase is a creative passer and effective ball-mover, even if she averages more turnovers than assists. The heightened competition compared to NCAA basketball makes efficiency production tougher to come by. But Borlase has shown stretches of dominance, putting up 31 point (on 12-16 shooting) and 25 point (on 7-13 shooting) games this season. The consistency needs improvement but is no surprise to lack in a 19 year old.

Betting on Borlase means you have space to allow her to continue to explore her versatile scoring and budding on-ball equity, trusting her to iron out the details over time. A solid athlete at 5’11’’, Borlase’s ability to fit in against competition above her years is a great sign she’ll figure it out in the WNBA, too.

Matt Powers

18. Kiki Jefferson, Louisville

Kiki Jefferson, like the other guard prospects given second-round grades on our big board, has flaws. But Jefferson is a well-rounded five-year college player that made the jump from James Madison to Louisville for her final year, and while her averages went down, no longer the alpha, Jefferson improved.

She shot 51.2% on twos, which is where the majority of her offense could come from in the W. She has a release built for the mid-range, and at 6’1” with serious core strength, Jefferson can get to that shot when she wants or drive to the rim, where she shot 54.3% last season, according to Synergy.

Jefferson shot 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes last season, taking just over two per game, occasionally reluctant to fire but hardly looking incompetent when she did. Those looking for optimism with Jefferson’s shot can point to her career free-throw mark of 81.5%, which jumped to 88.4% at Louisville.

None of this is wildly impressive, to be sure. Nor is the 2.3:2.1 assist:turnover ratio. The sell for Jefferson, my #14 prospect, is simple: She’s malleable. There’s more offensive talent to work with than, say Nika Mühl, but she possesses all the tools to reasonably hold her own on defense. Jefferson may not set up your offense on every possession, but you’ll feel comfortable with her handling in transition.

Kiki Jefferson is a multi-talented hooper. She just needs a bona-fide WNBA skill to pop. Will any team give her the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

19. Taiyanna Jackson, Kansas

Taiyanna Jackson may not be the most versatile player in this draft, but she does have one elusive quality: she protects the rim, and very well. At 6’6’’, Jackson was dominant on the defensive interior. Opponents shot 27% against her at the rim, only one percentage point higher than likely early first round pick Kamilla Cardoso. She blocked 6.5 shots per 100 possessions, exceeding even that of Cardoso, using her long wingspan and long strides to make plays from distance.

She has some significant holes in her game, most notably her careless passing, at a 0.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as her free throw shooting at 49%. But she has a presence on the interior on offense, as well, a 95th percentile finisher at the rim. If a team can hone in on these strengths and limit her role to her specialties, she could outperform.

Athleticism can get you on the court and Jackson has that in spades, a fluid mover for her size who engulfs opponents to snag the ball on either glass, and is mobile enough to patrol the entirety of the paint. You can trust her to deter shots on defense and pressure the rim on offense. These are bankable traits, even when considering the weaknesses.

A team needing a backup rim protector who can post up and crash the glass should take a long look at Jackson after the first round. While she lands near the end of our board, her tools are strong enough for her to return value far above, especially if she can clean up the weaknesses.

Matt Powers

20. Hannah Jump, Stanford

Scheme versatility is essential to a functioning WNBA offense, but most important is the ability to execute generally. With constant off-ball motion and dedicated actions, having a player you can trust to do her job is monumental. Enter Hannah Jump.

She may not be the most well-rounded in her game, with assists, rebounds, steals and blocks all below NCAA average. She has one of the lowest free throw rates I have ever seen, taking a career 68 free throws compared to 1,195 field goals. But she also hardly makes mistakes, noted by a very strong 2.5 assist to turnover ratio. Those are players you can work with.

While she plays a passive role, she is also an important play finisher. She is Stanford’s leading three point shooter in the history of the program, with 364 made threes out of 890 attempts to hit a stellar 40% efficiency. She doesn’t just shoot off the catch, though she does at an excellent 94th percentile rate, but also off the dribble. The threat of her running off of screens is compounded by having to stop her off of handoffs, in pick and roll, spotting up in transition. Her three point versatility is as important as the volume. 

As a specialist with many limitations, Hannah Jump isn’t likely to be a WNBA starter, and has an uphill battle to be a role player. But with bankable skills shooting from distance and limited mistake-making, she has a chance. For that reason, she finds herself in Swish Theory’s top 20.

Matt Powers

The post Swish Theory’s 2024 WNBA Draft Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Ahmed: Isaiah Crawford

Perhaps no draft class of the past decade has taken shape later in its cycle than 2024, and in a class defined by uncertainty it only makes sense for some of its prospects to take circuitous routes to the NBA. There may not be a player in the class who has taken a more winding road into the league than 6’6” fifth-year senior wing Isaiah Crawford. Typically there is some combination of three factors which result in a prospect exhausting their collegiate eligibility prior to joining the professional ranks. Maybe the player joined a veteran laden, high achieving team, where minutes crucial to their development are difficult to come by. The prospect in question may have been from a less heralded school where playing lower competition required a lengthier resume of production to be seriously considered a NBA caliber player. Or lastly, injuries prevent them from playing to the point where development is disrupted and they are forced to return to school.

In Crawford’s case the latter two factors are primarily responsible for his protracted NCAA career. Having suffered devastating ACL injuries in two consecutive seasons (his true sophomore and junior years), and playing the entirety of his career in Conference USA, which only recently gained a modicum of respect from FAU’s Final Four appearance this past season. While Crawford’s injury history may have him omitted from a few teams’ draft boards, the consistent production in spite of both practice and game time lost to recovery is eye-catching.

Crawford’s appeal is his protean skillset on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Crawford has spent most of the season as the primary creator in the half-court, ranking 11th in the country in isolations as a percentage of his teams possessions. However, in past years Crawford has been cast in a more of a complementary role, where he spaced the floor and gained comfort attacking closeouts as his long-range shooting became a more consistent threat (Crawford is currently 40% from 3 on 275 attempts in his career). Crawford was even deployed as a small-ball center this past year when his mobility was compromised by the recency of his knee injury.

In all these roles Crawford has not only produced, but thrived, when forced to adapt. This display of role flexibility bodes well for Crawford’s value in the league, where non-star wings are increasingly defined by their ability to meld around whatever star talent resides on their roster. Crawford will most likely not be asked to shoulder a large creation burden, but his ability to capitalize on mismatches created and attack tilted defenses, in tandem with the stellar shooting indicators (44% on 70 off-the-dribble midrange jumpers, 39.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2024), has been the recipe for numerous wings who arrived with little fanfare to carve out meaningful roles.

For as enticing as Crawford’s offense is, defense could very well be his ticket to making a NBA roster. Similar to the offense, Crawford has played a variety of roles defensively and consistently produced wherever he has been deployed, Crawford has posted stellar steal and block rates over his career (3.1% and 3.6% respectively) while simultaneously limiting fouling (only 3.3 fouls/40). The paltry foul rate to Crawford’s defensive impact numbers underscore his quick processing ability on this end of the floor. Crawford isn’t one to blindly gamble on the defensive end, instead opting for calculated risks where he utilizes the entirety of his massive wingspan to alter shots at the rim and encroach on ballhandler’s live dribbles as they attempt to create space. Despite being 6’6” I fully believe Crawford can function as a weak-side rim protector, aided by a 7’0” wingspan, and has the range necessary to complement a deep-drop big. 

All in all it is rare to find wings with as well-rounded a skillset as Crawford, and with the premium placed on the position around the league, it is my belief Crawford’s skillset warrants first round draft consideration despite the risk which comes with such a disconcerting injury history.

Avinash: DaRon Holmes II

DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the most well-rounded, dominant seasons in recent memory, and he’s getting late second round buzz. Here’s why I find that baffling.

Let’s get some things out of the way: DaRon Holmes is somewhat undersized for his position (6’10 in shoes), has middling length (7’0 WS), he is a bit old (August 2002 bday makes him ~senior aged), and he plays in a mid-major conference (although the A10 is arguably just as good as some P5 conferences). These are all valid criticisms, and should certainly be considered in ascertaining his upside. And yet, after watching DaRon for three years, I have two contentions that I will qualify below: 1) DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the greatest rim scoring seasons ever. 2) DaRon Holmes might be the most well rounded big man ever.

Starting with the first contention: from 2008 to 2023, there have been 37 instances where a player dunked 75 dunks or more. Five players have managed to do this twice: Udoka Azubuike, Tacko Fall, Obi Toppin, Chimezie Metu, and of course DaRon Holmes. Currently, DaRon is on pace to be the first player to do this 3 times! This baseline of interior dominance is important, but so is the span of his dominance. Upperclassmen are often maligned for only dominating once they reach a certain age threshold, thereby making their dominance seemingly untranslatable. Well, DaRon has been dunking to oblivion since his freshman season. His freshman season was actually a quasi-statistical doppelganger to Jalen Duren, and he was one of 7 players to dunk 80 times as a freshman (the other 6 were all lottery picks: AD, Ayton, Bagley, Obi, Drummond, and Bam. Dunks are my favorite way of ascertaining functional interior dominance: it’s the play type with the highest conversion percentage, yet it also has the highest barrier to consistent entry.

There’s so many more ways I could reiterate Holmes’ interior goodness. He’s scoring a whooping 80% at the rim on very high volume (will likely hit 200 rim attempts) and he’s getting to the line at an extremely high rate (70 FTR on the season). This combination of dunks/rim %/ FTR is virtually unmatched. For context, there have only been 3 seasons where a player has even reached 65 FTR and 80 dunks: Bam, Mason Plumlee, and Tacko Fall, with DaRon and Edey on pace to crush these numbers this year.

I’ve just spit out a cacophony of numbers to demonstrate DaRon’s interior dominance, some of which may admittedly be redundant. He also happens to be the rare disciplined rim protector, with both a strong rim protection record and foul rate reminiscent of a guard (career 7.6% block and 2.3 fouls per 50). But the main point is that DaRon doesn’t just exhibit above average interior dominance: by all accounts, he is one of the most dominant rim forces we have ever seen. There are some concerns about translatability, sure, but these are all relative. Even adjusting for length, means of winning, and conference strength, DaRon should at least be a solid bet to be a well-above-average rim force in the league.

However, it would be incredibly reductive to call DaRon an interior scoring merchant. He is also one of the best big man passers I have ever seen. He can catch the ball on the perimeter, force his way to the rim off a dribble drive and sling a one handed pass to the weak side for an open 3. He can get to a post-up and time pocket passes on the inside to cutters. He can bring the ball up the court and hit a tween as he scans the floor, and consistently leverages his rim gravity to make connective reads out of the post. This type of ball handling skill and passing acumen is quite rare for a 6’10 big, and it manifests in his 19% assist rate. Defenders truly have to pick their poison with DaRon – sit back and watch your center get absolutely cooked by DaRon inside the post en route to another dunk, or help off your man too hard and watch as DaRon wastes no time finding the open man.

I don’t really care too much about perimeter shooting numbers for prospects, but DaRon is putting up 5 3PA/100 and 37% 3P, while shooting 69% on FTs. Even if I’m not totally sold that he’s going to be a pick and pop force in his prime a la Kevin Love, this is a pretty significant data point. This year, there’s only 18 players 6’10 or taller who even meet 3 3PA/100, 35% 3P, and 65% FT. To me, this is just a testament to DaRon’s perimeter skill and fluidity, and this perimeter volume is already operating as a functional outlet for him to create advantages off closeouts.

It’s pretty clear that DaRon is an impressive passer and shooter – how many big men are able to put up 19% assist and 5 3PA/100 simultaneously? It’s a rare skill set with intuitive translatability, as it’s easy to imagine the utility of a post hub who can pick and pop or even run some delay actions from the jump. At the same time, there’s only been a couple players who have even approached DaRon’s statistical rate of interior dominance, and even fewer who can dominate the rim at both ends. 

Here’s the bottom line: there has NEVER been a prospect who approaches DaRon’s goodness at the intersection of feel, shooting, and interior scoring. One of the best statistical rim scorers also happens to be an awesome passer and bonafide shooter, all while protecting the rim at a high level? This is absolutely insane territory, and I’m running out of ways to emphasize this. Since 2008, there have only been 3 players with 50 dunks, 15% assist, and literally just 1 3PA/100: Zion, Obi, and Josh Jackson. None of them were even close to DaRon’s block rate or even 3PA/100 (Zion was the closest at 3.9 3PA/100). For reference, DaRon is on pace to pulverize these thresholds; he’s on pace for 80 dunks, 19% assist, and 5 3PA/100.

I don’t need to cook up another bart query to exemplify the extraordinary nature of this skillset. DaRon Holmes has the most fascinating skill integration for a big that I’ve ever seen, and he does it while being elite to generational in all the facets you want to see for a traditional big man. Oftentimes, when we look for unicorns among bigs, we fail to account for whether or not they are good at traditional big man things. So many scrawny bigs have failed because their movement aesthetics weren’t adequately functional to overcome their physical deficiencies. And now, we have one of the most physically dominant big men in the barttorvik.com era entering the draft, and this player also happens to be able to dribble, shoot and pass at a high level relative to position? And he’s projected to go undrafted by several outlets? By all accounts, his integration of skills in conjunction with his baseline of sheer dominance is incredibly rare and offers a tantalizing combination of high floor and untapped ceiling. This is the type of bet I want my front office making.

Roshan: Jaylon Tyson

The NBA has had a massive talent explosion in the last couple of years, where players with size are coming in more skilled than ever. One of the reasons is the proliferation of wings or bigs that can dribble, pass and shoot. In a class where this player is more of a rarity, Jaylon Tyson has a case for being underrated.

Jaylon Tyson is a 6’7” junior tasked with running the primary ballhandling duties for the California Golden Bears, lighting the Pac-12 up with impressive shotmaking, crafty ball-handling, and reactive passing. In 27 games, 35% of his offensive possessions come from being the pick-and-roll ballhandler where he’s been slicing up defenses with his good first step and leveraging his touch from all three levels of the floor. 

He’s been shooting 59% at the rim on 188 attempts (70% unassisted), 42% on 108 midrange attempts (93% unassisted), and 36% on three-point attempts (48% unassisted). If you still don’t believe he has touch, he’s also shooting 77% from the charity stripe for his career (177 attempts), 43% on floaters and hooks this year, and 45% on off-the-dribble jumpers inside the arc this year. Tyson can get to these shots in a lot of creative ways where he’s able to use change of direction, deceleration, and different stride lengths to freeze defenders or cause them to flip their hips. He’s then able to use quickness in short spaces to create space and hunt a shot.

Tyson’s handle is the vehicle for all of his crucial skills on the offensive end, as he has excellent ball control. This enables him to pick the ball up at gather points where primary and help defenders can not dig at it effectively, further lending itself to live dribble passes. 

His passing volume mostly contains single-level reads like finding the roller out of pick-and-roll or making connective passes to the next rotational player, but where he shines is how quickly he’s processing these decisions, often locating the help defense. Sometimes the speed of his deliveries can be improved but I can see a pathway to growth in this area because he has manipulated defenses at times with no-look passes. With improved hand strength, he could potentially do this with more volume off of a live dribble.

Tyson is definitely an NBA athlete, dunking 15 times in the halfcourt (3 of which came off of his drives to the rim) with good load time off of two feet. There isn’t a wingspan that I could find but I would say it ranges somewhere between +3 and +5 inches compared to his height. On the defensive end, this length and explosion allow him to stifle smaller ball-handlers. His lateral movement allows him to stay with ball handlers and then hound them with his reach, empowering his ability to create events which can be seen in his 1.7 block percentage and 2.0 steal percentage. 

His problem on the defensive end is screen navigation, where he can get caught across screens and has to recover back into the play. Most of this is him not doing his work early with technique and getting skinny, specifically taking larger lateral strides before the opposing big can get positioned with his screen. Currently, he can recover into plays using his burst and length but this will be tougher to do in the NBA with the amount of ground that has to be covered. 

I believe this issue is further amplified due to his usage on the offensive end (30% usage) which will persist less in the NBA in a scaled-down role. In the NBA, Tyson will have the chance to play off of better advantage creators, where he can capitalize on tilted defenses off-the-catch. Having to create fewer possessions at the next level, there should be an uptick in three-point efficiency, similar to his sophomore season at Texas Tech where more of his threes were assisted as he shot 40% on 107 attempts. To get even more granular, he shot 43% on catch-and-shoot shots his sophomore year. With a reduced offensive load, it will let him expend more on the defensive end and do his work early with technique.

The skills and athletic traits he has as a primary should translate well to an off-ball role in increased NBA spacing, using burst and explosion to capitalize on advantages, and incorporating his touch and creative handle to create counters when the defense recovers. 

These tantalizing skills at prototypical wing size should give the team that drafts Tyson a dynamic scoring wing with the potential to funnel ballhandlers as a defender in the NBA. That sounds like the description of a player who could end up being a starting-caliber player and will be 21.5 years old on draft night; yet, he remains outside of the top 20 on most boards and mocks throughout mainstream media. In my opinion, investing heavily in a player of that caliber is usually justified, particularly in a draft class where there’s a significant shortage of this player type.

Matt: Jonathan Mogbo

Jonathan Mogbo is one of the more unique development cases of the 21st century. Not recruited out of high school as a 6’4’’ guard, he is now 6’9’’ and a big/forward. He started at Independence Community College, transferred to junior college Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, transferred again to low-major Missouri State, and then a third time to the mid-major San Francisco. He has guided himself up the development curve, step-by-step.

And it seems to have worked. Jonathan Mogbo is not just playing well at this higher competition level, but dominating. His 10.5 Box Plus-Minus is #13 in the country. As you might guess from the growth spurt, Mogbo mixes in guard skills with that of a big. That has provided flexibility of value to San Francisco’s roster (+20 net rating when on compared to +2 when off) that would continue with another leap in competition.

Jonathan Mogbo can pass – really pass – the fulcrum of the Dons’ offense. They often run Delay with Mogbo the trigger point, providing endless handoffs and hitting cutters or shooters in stride. He assists on one of every four made buckets by his teammates, in the top 10 for assist rate among NCAA bigs.

But what really makes Mogbo stand out is his ability as a roller or cutter. Mogbo is a fantastic leaper, quick off the ground and with ridiculous hang time, coupled with an above 7-foot wingspan and large hands. His catch radius is phenomenal, but as much as that, his footwork stands out. Mogbo is capable of dropping into a roll or starting his cut from an oblique angle while simultaneously chopping his feet, preparing for any pass regardless of its accuracy. It’s through this talent that he is barely second to Zach Edey in number of dunks this season, with a shocking three per game. Not bad for a former point guard.

The limitation is the outside shooting, as Mogbo has only attempted 38 threes over his four college seasons and at a 31% make rate, but is still shooting a solid 69% from the line and 32% in midrange. That’s enough to convince me there’s some chance of Mogbo succeeding as a low-end catch and shoot three point threat. But even if not, his handle stands out as strong for a big, capable of making moves off the dribble (but not too many) to then leverage his strength to make a path to the rim where he shoots 75% (and nearly half of his rim makes self-created). He is mostly dominant inside, but there are sparks of upside outside of the restricted area. The feel of a guard is there.

Mogbo is excellent on defense, too, and also due to his guard-like agility and opportunism. He gets a steal on 3.3% of opponent possession and a block just as often, only one of nine starters in the NCAA to do so (see: Isaiah Crawford later on). His long wingspan is weaponized by lightning fast reaction time, closing off passing lanes when least expected. His mobility combined with strength allows him to defend on the perimeter and inside alike. One small slight is he can take a beat to find his positioning on the court, a significant concern for picking up NBA schemes (especially ability to play drop as sole big). This, however, is heavily mediated by his quick recovery time and aforementioned physical tools to keep him in a play. When he’s near, he’s a threat. 

Jonathan Mogbo provides a bevy of skills no one else in the 2024 draft class has in this combination. Despite being a senior, Mogbo’s adaptability to increasing competition in the middle of a growth spurt suggests continued room for improvement. With deadly weapons in the form of interior athleticism and big-man ball skills, Mogbo is a tough matchup regardless of competition. That’s why I believe he deserves to go in the top 20 of the 2024 NBA draft. Instead, he is absent from all major media mocks/boards entirely.

Josh: David Jones

Through his four seasons in college basketball, David Jones has progressively developed into one of the best wings in the country. There were flashes of future stardom in his first two years at DePaul, with him averaging 14.5 points per game as a sophomore for the Blue Demons. Jones then transferred up to St. Johns, where his numbers remained very similar to his sophomore year at DePaul. After coach Rick Pitino accepted the head coaching position at St. John’s, Jones decided to transfer up again to Memphis, where he is now on All-American watchlists while averaging a career high 21.7 points per game on 60.7% true shooting percentage.

With the Tigers, David Jones’ rate of spot-up possessions has risen substantially, and so has his efficiency in this area. Jones is currently averaging a whopping 1.24 points per possession on spot-up looks, and he is at 1.21 points per possession on spot-up drives. He is currently at 1.35 points per possession on 40 right drives and 1.06 points per possession on 35 left drives. Jones’ burst from a standstill is quite impressive, as he is able to beat closeout defenders with ease. His jab and go often leaves defenders in the dust, as the threat of his downhill speed leads to defenders often biting on his initial move. When he jabs left and goes right, he is often able to get to his pull-up, where he is able to align his shoulder with the rim to knock down the shot. He also has an incredibly pronounced pump fake, leading to many fly-bys from unsuspecting defenders. 

When Jones beats his initial defender, he is adept at weaving his way through help using a variety of different stride types. There are many possessions where he takes an elongated last step towards the rim to either get by one help defender or to split two, and these steps often open up easy finishes at the basket. While he is at the basket, Jones flashes exceptional body control, as he is able to consistently absorb contact and finish through it despite the frequent difficulty of these attempts. He pairs this body control with his explosive one foot leaping, as he is able to generate tons of vertical pop and hangtime to throw down highlight dunks if given a runway. Half court finishing will be a potential swing skill for Jones, as he is currently hovering at 51% at the rim in the halfcourt. I am a firm believer in this mark improving over time, as he consistently showcases great touch around the rim and always displays the aforementioned elite body control. 

Stepping back to his spot-up proficiency, Jones is currently shooting a blistering 47% on 79 total spot-up 3s putting him at 1.41 points per possession on these shots. Among every single player in D1 basketball, David Jones is currently scoring the fifth most points per game on spot-up possessions in the entire country despite only being 46th in total spot-up possessions. Jones has shown the ability to hit shots off of a variety of footwork patterns, movements, and is just as accurate on off-dribble jumpers. Shooting progression is almost never linear, and Jones’ development over the last couple years has been magnificent. Between his sophomore and junior seasons, Jones jumped from 69% on free throws to a strong 79%, and he currently hovers at 80% this year on nearly three times the volume. His jump as a three point shooter really kicked in this year, as he has gone from 29% as a junior to 39% as a senior. Jones has pristine mechanics on his jumper, and he is excellent at rotating his body in air to align his shot with the rim. This is part of what makes him so deadly as a pull-up shooter, as he is comfortable shooting off of a variety of dribble patterns. Jones has also showcased comfort in shooting from NBA range and even beyond, and he can convert on these deep looks both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenders have to stay honest on his drive, so any type of walk down will typically give Jones either a driving lane or enough daylight to pull-up from 3.

Another potential swing skill for Jones will be his playmaking, more specifically limiting turnovers. I personally believe that Jones is a significantly better playmaker than his current numbers would indicate, as he has shown the ability to make high level reads off of drives. Jones typically avoids telegraphing his passes, as his eye fakes and general passing deception periodically appear on tape. These positive playmaking indicators along with his processing of help defenders on drives leads me to believe in his feel for the game and processing speed, which bodes very well for his playmaking progression in the future. The main inconsistency in his playmaking has been his passing accuracy, however I think most of this is due to the difficulty of some of the reads he makes. In a scaled down role in the NBA, Jones will have the opportunity to make first and second layer reads off of drives, and I believe that he is more than capable of making nearly every pass he would be tasked with executing at this level. 

Defensively, Jones uses his elite quickness and strong instincts to jump passing lanes very frequently. His steal rate of 3.7 ranks 30th in the country among players playing at least 70% of their team’s minutes, and his ability to create deflections and transition offense opportunities absolutely pops on tape. Jones is a bit of a gambler on defense, as he looks to jump these passes very frequently. However, when Jones is out of position due to a missed jump, he is still able to swiftly get back into the play due to his change of direction capabilities. When Jones focuses on sitting down and walling off drives, he is excellent at mirroring opponents’ movements and cutting off any lanes to the basket. Jones’ body control once again shows up when he is forced to navigate screens, as he is able to absorb the contact of the screen and quickly get over them to get back into the play. Jones’ short area quickness makes him an excellent closeout defender, as he is able to execute x-outs and recover out to perimeter players much quicker than the average wing player. Finally, Jones is an excellent rebounder for a wing, as he crashes the glass to grab 2.4 offensive rebounds and 5.2 defensive rebounds per game.

Oftentimes wings with similar skill sets to Jones come in as below average defenders and in turn struggle to stick in the league despite their offensive tools. However, Jones combines his strong offensive tools with great defensive instincts and a solid feel for the game. The foundation that Jones has cannot be overlooked, and the sheer amount of translatable traits that he provides has led to me believing that he deserves to be in first round talks.  

AJ – Riley Minix

A 5th-year transfer from NAIA school Southeastern, Riley Minix has continued his dominance in his first season at the D1 level. He leads Morehead State comfortably in points, rebounds, true shooting percentage, and combined steals + blocks a game. It’s worth noting that while he’s playing at a mid-major school he’s not just padding stats on a bad team – Morehead State is currently in the 1st place in the OVC and ranks top 40 nationally (out of 362 schools) in both offensive and defensive rating with Minix leading the way on both ends. 

While Minix’s game is built around overall versatility, his primary standout skill right now is inside the arc scoring. At 6’7” with an extremely strong frame he’s one of the most dominant 2pt scorers in college basketball this season, shooting 64.8% on all twos thanks to a staggering combination of efficiency at the rim (77%, 19 dunks in 27 games) and from mid-range (50%). His ability to shoot it from three is a little more of a question as he’s shooting a fairly mediocre 33% from beyond the arc this year, but there’s other indicators that point to him being a better shooter than that. He’s shooting nearly 85% from the FT line this year, takes a solid volume of 3’s at 8.1 3PA/100 possessions, and shot 40.8% from 3pt at the NAIA level on over 550+ attempts. When you factor in this additional context, he definitely has a stronger shooting projection than this year’s raw 3pt% suggests. 

Minix is also capable of affecting a game in several different ways. His strength and size make him a high level rebounder for a forward, and he’s currently in the midst of a 9-game streak with double digits rebounds. He’s also the leader of one of the better defenses in college basketball, with Morehead State’s defense improving 8.6 points per 100 possessions when Minix is on the floor compared to off. He’s not the quickest or fastest player, but knows where to be and his combination of strength and good hands let him be effective when he is in the right position. He’s also capable as a passer, not a high level facilitator by any means but knows how to keep the ball moving and capitalize on the extra attention he gets from defenses. 

While he’s done just about everything at a high level for Morehead State, Minix still has some question marks on both ends. For as good of a scorer around the rim as he’s been this year, a lot of that production comes in ways (rim rolls, post seals, putbacks, etc.) that will be a lot harder to replicate consistently at the next level when you’re 6’7” with solid-not-great athletic tools for NBA standards. Minix will also have to deal with role translation on the defensive end as well, as playing the forward position defensively in the NBA requires a completely different skillset than playing it at the mid-major level. With his burly frame being much more equipped to defend from a set position using strength than to try to stick with guys through screens/traffic on the move, this could be a challenge for him. 

Overall, even with questions around competition level, agility, and role/skillset translation, it’s hard not to see the intrigue with Riley Minix. He checks multiple boxes we look for in NBA role players, possessing good positional size and the ability to score effectively from multiple spots on the floor while still being able to impact the game in non-scoring areas. It will no doubt be a tough jump for Minix to go from NAIA to Mid-Major CBB to NBA in a short span, but his track record of producing at a high level everywhere he goes will give him a chance to stick at any level.

The post Roundtable: 2024 NBA Draft Sleepers appeared first on Swish Theory.

Quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2024 draft cycle, Ron Holland boasts prototypical size for a NBA wing standing 6’8 (in shoes) with a 6’11 wingspan. Holland has perhaps experienced the most rapid development arc of all the lottery-level prospects, first coming onto the national scene playing for an elite high school program in Duncanville (Texas) where he starred alongside 2023 lottery pick, Anthony Black. For the majority of his high school career Holland made his bones as an energy big-man, who relentlessly crashed the glass and was an opportunistic scorer. Now playing for the
G-League’s Ignite program, Holland has expanded his game to the perimeter, sliding into a more of a combo-forward role.

The role change, combined with the massive leap in competition, have yielded predictably mixed results for Holland. Shooting a paltry 21.3% from three on a little over 3 attempts per game, along with a .72 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, Holland has had his fair share of record scratch moments where his lack of refinement as a ballhandler and shooter have been highlighted. However, Holland has balanced these growing pains with perhaps the most impressive flashes in the class, where he has parlayed his exceptional burst into persistent rim pressure which has allowed him to play-make for others. All this goes without mentioning how effective Holland has been defensively, displaying rare off-ball instincts for an 18 year old wing and a penchant for defensive playmaking (Holland is averaging 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game). The developmental trajectory Holland is already on combined with the archetypal value of a two-way wing is what lands Holland at #1 on my board.

Ahmed Jama

2. Nikola Topic, KK Mega / KK Crvena

Nikola Topic has played 16 games this season for KK Mega Soccerbet. During that time he was able to put his NBA skillset on fully display. Topic is excellent on the ball, primarily as a pick and roll ball handler, leading to 1.01 points per possessions per Synergy. His ability to attack the basket with his first step while having the ball on a string makes him exceptional. Once he gets to the rim, Topic finishes at a 65% clip. The playmaking from Topic is also a standout skill, specifically the timing of his passing on back cuts, skip passes after reading the low man, and feathery touch on lobs to rollers. Regardless of who he plays for, expect Topic to be smart with the ball and make sound passing reads.

If you got this far you’re probably asking, “why haven’t I read anything about Topic’s shooting?” That is a trickier question. The free throw numbers are there, shooting 86.5% which bodes well for his future as a shooter at the NBA level. But the release is too low to get off against NBA-level athleticism. The question may not be can he shoot it but at what volume. Last but not least is the defense. Topic has shown that he can sometimes be beat off the dribble and has been prone to foul when guarding off-ball. He can ball-watch and not rotate correctly at times.

At the end of the day, Topic deserves his spot as a top pick in this particular draft. In this league you need ballhandlers who can create advantages and capitalize: Nikola Topic can do both of those things.

Larry Golden

3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth

Every year of the modern draft, highly skilled seven-footers with shooting touch and the ability to play-make have upheld the top of the draft. With the 2024 NBA Draft, Alex Sarr is the newest addition to that group. Sarr’s coordination and mobility at 7’1” are truly remarkable and those movement skills translate to both sides of the ball, especially this season playing off the bench for the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. Sarr’s size, reach, and fluidity with larger strides give him the tools to have elite ground coverage and deter shots effectively at the rim. He also can backtrack at his size which makes him a defensive Swiss army knife, being able to protect the rim as the low man in different pick-and-roll coverages, a help-side rim protector, and even help at the nail. 

What Sarr does struggle with, however, is being able to take choppier steps which may affect him at times as he rolls or handles in traffic on offense or even create events in short areas on the defensive side of the ball. Dealing with sub-par vertical explosion, Sarr can mitigate some of those issues out of the dunker spot with his size and a quicker second jump.

Sarr has the potential to be an off-the-catch nightmare offensively, as with his combination of movement skills, touch, and size he can create mismatches consistently both in live-ball situations or into post-ups. While his handle does need work for his offensive game to actualize, Sarr’s potential as a shooter is intriguing with his touch around the rim and his high three-point volume relative to other seven-footers his age.

Roshan Potluri

4. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

The Lithuanian forward from Chicago, Matas Buzelis came into the G League season as the 7th best prospect on the RSCI list. The 6’10” forward is armed with shooting prowess and the ability to put the ball on the floor and handle it with flashes of real creativity. He may only be shooting 22.2% on 3.4 attempts this G League season but Matas has pristine shooting mechanics, fluid energy transfer, great touch, and a 43% 3-point shooting profile dating back to his senior year at Sunrise Christian. While Matas has a slender frame at the moment, he’s able to carve space off the catch by getting extremely low with his shin angles and lower leg flexibility. This enables his body to act as a lever against his defenders, leveraging this into opportunities to score with touch inside the arc or at the rim. 

Matas showcases his feel in these dribble-drive situations, often identifying where help comes from and acting on those passing opportunities. His feel also exudes itself on the defensive end where he’s great with his active and timely help whether that’s at the nail, in gaps, or even as a weakside tagger using his length to help deter an offense. He struggles a bit with closeouts as he can be upright at times on strong closeouts, battling back to recover in these possessions, but in general his lower leg flexibility allows him to mirror smaller, craftier offensive players. 

NBA teams are always looking for players with this description just due to the versatility they can provide on both sides of the ball. If Matas continues on the development path he is on, he has the makings of a truly unique dribble-pass-shoot wing that can bolster and supplement an NBA defense.

Roshan Potluri

5. Isaiah Collier, USC

Isaiah Collier was the top recruit in the country entering this college season and his sell as a prospect begins and ends with his ability to pressure the rim. Collier is a shorter guard with only one dunk on the season, but thrives beneath the rim with strength, craft and ambidextrous finishing. Collier averages over 5 layups a game while converting on 63.2% of those looks. That threat of rim pressure is the catalyst for his playmaking. Collier is excellent at spraying passes from within the teeth of the defense and creating looks for others, though his teammates’ success converting those looks has been dubious at best. 

Collier will need to shore up his turnovers, a result of over-aggressive driving, exuberant confidence and an occasionally loose handle. His jumper has been better than expected entering the year, but is far from a reliable weapon at this point in time and the defense certainly has a ways to go. Even with those limitations, Collier’s undeniable rim pressure and his incredible positional strength offer a tantalizing developmental proposition. The game is about buckets, and Collier’s ability to create them for himself and others is near the very top of this class. 

Tyler Wilson

6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham is a premier offensive talent and has been a reliable on-ball creator for Kentucky all season. The OTE alum has brought his up-tempo style to the Wildcats, and has leveraged his shiftiness and speed in downhill attacks in combination with his shooting to become a well-rounded threat on a consistent basis. Dillingham has true three-level scoring ability, with pull up range that goes well beyond the NBA three-point line, and he is also very effective coming off of screens. In the mid-range and inside, his soft touch and insanely deep floater package make him nearly unstoppable at getting a solid field goal attempt whenever he wants to. Not to be overlooked in Dillingham’s offensive skill set is his passing, which is surprisingly high level. For a player who’s floor game was questioned coming into college, Dillingham’s reads have been advanced, with adept passing out of nearly every offensive situation, from skip passes to corner on the move to the screen and roll and all in between. Equally capable of slotting in at both the point guard and off-guard positions, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is as NBA-ready as they come.

Defensively are where the concerns start to rear their ugly head. Dillingham provides more than adequate effort and generates steals at a decent rate, but at a relatively slight 6’2 and 170 pounds, his physical attributes don’t lend themselves to being a plus defender, where his athleticism is negated, and at the NBA level opposing teams will certainly exploit Dillingham’s lack of size and girth. Even with his severe defensive issues, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is so exemplary that he is a near bet to go in the lottery. Where exactly in the lottery that will be will come down to how NBA teams evaluate Dillingham’s offensive ceiling and his long-term role with their franchise, but with the talent he possesses, Dillingham is sure to make for a solid fit.

Corban Ford

7. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg

In an NBA where three point shooting and ground coverage are king, Risacher has the profile of one of the best complementary wings in the class. A highly touted prospect, Risacher struggled mightily playing in the U19 FIBA tournament that saw him slide precipitously down draft boards. Fast forward a few months and Risacher is one of the best shooters in a competitive Jeep Elite league in France. 

Spot ups, off movement, over a heavy contest, Risacher has been excellent in nearly every facet of shooting the basketball. He has great positional height and length for his position and his release point makes most shots nearly unblockable. Risacher has been an incredibly solid team defender for JL Bourg this year, and while his point-of-attack defense and screen navigation certainly need some TLC, he has proven to be a positive presence on both ends this season as an 18-year-old. He is not the creator some hoped he would be entering the season, but his success as a two-way off-ball wing is an incredibly encouraging sign for his translation to a league that is constantly searching for more players like him.

Tyler Wilson

8. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Kyle Filipowski is an intriguing skilled big man from Duke who has been rising up draft boards this cycle. Standing nearly 7 feet, Filipowski’s offensive skill set is one of tantalizing promise that is rapidly approaching consistent reality. His tremendous footwork and ability to put the ball on the floor make him a challenge to defend in the pick and roll action, a challenge that is compounded by the rapidly developing catch and shooter jumper that he has shown in pick and pops. Additionally, Filipowski is adept at making quick passing reads out of the short roll, while in straight post up situations, his soft touch and polish around the rim make him an extremely tough cover. While he may not ultimately figure as a main offensive hub, his game should slot in well as a secondary engine of efficient offense.

Defensively, Filipowski is at his best as a weak-side defender, where he brings his height to bear in an impactful way. He is very competent in a drop scheme defensively, where he moves just well enough to stay in front of the action, although he does struggle in a switch system where he simply isn’t quick enough to contain penetration from guards or faster forwards. He also struggles defending bigger and stronger post players, who are able to score at a high clip with him as the defender. Despite this, Kyle Filopowski projects as a very strong player in this year’s draft who can most certainly go high lottery, with his outside shooting and defensive versatility factoring in as possible swing skills.

Corban Ford

9. Donovan Clingan

The intrigue around Clingan as a lottery prospect starts with his ability to protect the rim. At 7’2” with a 7’7” wingspan and strong instincts as a shot blocker, Clingan has stretches where he completely shuts down the rim for opposing offenses. Where he differs from other recent rim protector prospects is his strength/frame, as he’s built more like Brook Lopez than a Chet Holmgren/Evan Mobley type. His ability to guard in space has been a little questionable this year, but it’s worth noting he’s dealt with multiple foot injuries and looked better in that department when he was healthy as a freshman.

On the offensive end Clingan isn’t the most diverse player and could stand to improve on his touch, but it’s still easy to imagine a role for him on that end in the NBA. His frame makes him an effective screen setter and he has the size and coordination to be dangerous as a roll man around the rim. He also has a basic but usable low post game and is a strong offensive rebounder, which will make it hard for teams to switch smaller defenders onto him. Between his potential as a defensive anchor and a relatively high floor offensive game, it’s easy to see why Clingan is a potential lottery pick.

AJ Carter

10. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Tyler Smith is 6’10 with a 7 foot WS, freshman aged, and can shoot the cover off the ball while also not being a defensive black hole. It really isn’t hard to see why he’s gaining traction as a lottery pick from a pure archetypal value standpoint. Tyler has had an unorthodox trajectory, as he’s spent the last two seasons playing in the Overtime Elite league. Part of what makes me so confident about Tyler is that he’s been relatively dominant in every stop of his career. In both years at OTE, Tyler averaged 20 pts per 40, as he quickly became known for being the league’s premier sharpshooter en route to being awarded Second Team All-OTE honors. He adapted quickly to the G League’s deeper 3P line, as he is currently shooting 39% from 3 on nearly 6 3s per 36 and 68% from the free throw line while averaging 12.8/5/1.4 per game. In short, he is an incredibly productive player in a pro league with an NBA ready skillset. 

What makes Tyler so unique, however, is his interior dominance: Smith averages over a dunk per game and is a true vertical threat as a roll man or cutter. How many elite NBA shooters are also able to screen and roll? Tyler also projects as a fairly instinctual secondary rim protector, able to rotate over and disrupt with his length and verticality. At the end of the day, Tyler just blends productivity and an enviable skill set in an NBA ready body. There are some concerns; his rim touch is poor and he often struggles to handle defenders inside the arc, hence why his volume/consistency on pull up 2s is quite low. Perhaps there is a cap on his feasible creation burden in the league, or maybe his precocious productivity in offball roles proxies some latent creation upside. Nonetheless, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G League Ignite prospect with an NBA ready skillset, and he can guard and play inside on BOTH sides. His game is an intuitive equilibrium amidst the ever swinging pendulum between skilled bullyball (see: the last 5 MVP winners) and small ball.

Avinash Chauhan

11. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

In a league where the highest premium is placed on having shooting available, so as to serve as a catalyst for high level offenses, Ja’kobe Walter very well could be the most potent shooter in the 2024 draft class. Walter is currently shooting a blistering 43.5% from three on a robust 11 attempts per 100 possessions. While virtually all of Walter’s attempts have been assisted up until this point (96.7%), this belies how versatile a shooter Walter has been over the course of his career prior to his arrival at Baylor, where he has been pigeon-holed into a smaller, off-ball role. Walter prior to college consistently
displayed the ability to shoot from distance on a variety of platforms, comfortable getting into his shot dribbling with either hand.

What separates Walter’s shooting from his contemporaries is how decisive he is off the catch when he inevitably receives hard close-outs. This is evidenced by Walter’s robust 38.7% free-throw rate, a rare benchmark for an off-ball spacer to reach. Walter’s sinewy frame and limited foot-speed for the position limit his effectiveness on the defensive end, and while he is somewhat able to compensate by forcing turnovers with his quick hands (2.7% steal rate), it is difficult to see Walter ever becoming an impactful player at this end of the court. Ultimately though, Walter’s combination of quick off-ball processing and versatile shooting make him an enticing complimentary bet.

Ahmed Jama

12. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Kel’el Ware is an intriguing prospect, a 7’0” big who is a fluid mover at his size. He’s a complete rolling big that dunks a ton of his lob opportunities. Ware’s game is tantalizing not just for the rolling and screening, but also his NBA-level post up game. He can finish over the top with his go-to jump hook or get to his fadeaway. Indiana trusts him on the perimeter to make passing reads and he’s shown some ability to read the floor and know when to dive cut. The skillset is there for Kel’el Ware and the concerns have turned down a bit. Let’s hope the motor continues to run hot.

Victor Wembanyama is now in the NBA, and if you’re doing things right, finding guys for your frontcourt who can compete is paramount. Ware is someone that if it all clicks could be fun to watch and impactful at the next level.

Larry Golden

13. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Despite tough competition for minutes in a loaded Kentucky guard room, Reed Sheppard has been one of the biggest draft risers in the NCAA thus far. He’s one of the best standstill shooters in the country (56% 3pt, 90% FT), makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, and is a high level defender thanks to a rare combo of elite hand-eye coordination and defensive instincts. He’s also producing at a historic level for a young prospect, trailing only Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis (both #1 overall picks) in BPM for a freshman over the last 15 years. 

While you can’t really argue against Reed being a good basketball player, most of the questions around him stem from positional fit and perceived lack of upside. At 6’3” with limited athleticism he has the measurables of an NBA PG, yet Sheppard doesn’t do much to break defenses down off the dribble and is below the standard creation threshold typically needed to play Point Guard at the next level. Whoever drafts him may have to be a little creative with their lineup/roster construction to get the most out of Reed, but there’s little doubt about his ability to impact winning when he’s on the floor.

AJ Carter

14. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Ryan Dunn is, simply, a master of mayhem. The 6’8 sophomore wing is the anchor of Virginia’s stifling defense, and he truly excels at initiating disorder on every plane of basketball geometry. The stats speak for themselves: Dunn is the first player since the legendary Thybulle to average 2 steals and 2 blocks per game, and he’s doing it with a cerebral combination of resounding athleticism and incredible defensive feel. Dunn is on pace to put up the first 10% block/4% steal season ever (?) and he leads the nation in adjusted defensive rating. By all accounts, Dunn is the most impactful defender in the nation, but it’s important to highlight just HOW he’s doing this. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, Dunn is a remarkably versatile event creator. It’s stupidly difficult to project anyone to guard all five positions, but Dunn slides on the perimeter with slower guards and has the range to rotate over as a secondary rim protector. He is genuinely the best bet to guard all 5 positions in the league in recent memory.

Dunn’s movement skills are second to none – with his collection of tomahawk dunks in the halfcourt and rapid baseline cuts on offense serving as even more evidence of his agility and lateral quickness. What makes Dunn so special, however, is his incredibly quick processing. Dunn leverages his range and length with an extraordinary level of consistency as he quickly diagnoses vulnerabilities in Virginia’s defensive infrastructure. His ability to pivot and make free safety-esque rotations to disrupt offensive flow is perhaps not the most orthodox interpretation of feel, but make no mistake: Ryan Dunn is a high feel player. This “feel” carries over on offense, where Dunn is a mistake free player. He’s posted a 1.2 assist to turnover rate, miniscule turnover rate, and despite a seemingly low assist rate, I was surprised by his willingness to make some intriguing, rapidfire reads, whether it be kickouts from inside or from the post to baseline cutters. The rest of the offense is questionable, sure: Dunn’s offensive repertoire is almost entirely off cuts and in transition, with a sprinkling of spot ups that some may be happy to glaze over. Shooting under 60% at the line and under 30% from 3 as a sophomore is certainly questionable, especially considering Dunn is quite a bit older for a sophomore (January 2003 birthday). But at the end of the day, Dunn has only played a year and a half at the college level, he has impressive tools and elite decision making to boot, and if feel is truly indicative of outlier development, then who says he can’t undergo unexpected offensive progress? Even if he’s a negligible offense player, it doesn’t hurt that he’s the best defensive prospect that I can remember.

Avinash Chauhan

The post 2024 NBA Draft: Lottery Board 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season appeared first on Swish Theory.

In this piece, Swish Theory contributors look at exactly that. We reflect on our “favorite” misses, those who have taught us the most along our various hoops journeys.

Matt Powers

Jayson Tatum.

While I was much less tuned into the draft, mostly highlight scouting until 2020, I still took pride in making a quick board or a friendly wager with friends regarding prospect outcomes. Jayson Tatum has a lot that I look for in a prospect, a smart defender with skill, green flag production and a great athlete. But, reader, I did not buy the shot. The aesthetics of the Duke motion got under my skin in a way I could not explain, a two-motion release that involved often violent gathers and flaring out on release. I let this issue cloud my overall opinion of the now consensus star for the Boston Celtics, and, while I did not make an official board this season, had major concerns about him as a top 3 draft pick. If the shot doesn’t fall, I expected the rest of the game to crumble…or else was just so distracted by the aesthetics – not even that bad, but enough to trigger a massive red flag in my analysis.

That all was fixed within the first week of Summer League. A 34% shooter from deep in college, Tatum smoothed out his motion and generally has excelled as an athlete where, even if it didn’t improve, he likely would still be an All-Star anyways. But a career 38% on heavy volume (including 43% as a rookie) I never could have imagined. That all made the rest of his game, already strong, even easier, the undisputed leader for a consistent title contender at a young age. Better shooting meant lower thresholds for innovation in the rest of his game, exploring the studio space as a handler and passer to make consistent leaps in skill. That taught me a harsh lesson about the uncertainties of shooting, the dangers of aesthetics, the value of compounding flashes of skill and, well, sometimes it just happens.

A maxim I’ve developed is that with draft research, someone will always be higher or lower than you on every aspect of a player’s game. It’s not worth staking out ground as the guy who doesn’t believe in a player’s shot, or, on the other end, convinced they are guaranteed to be 40%+ from deep. Every scale is fluid and incremental, and a change in trajectory for one skill or trait has downstream impacts on every other one. In overanalyzing a single item, it’s likely you’re too narrow in your imagination. 

Josh Url

Willie Cauley-Stein.

Before the 2015 draft I was excited by the defensive potential of Willie Cauley-Stein (WCS). He seemed destined to be a switchable rim protector and lob threat at 7’0” 240 lbs with crazy athletic tools. Of all the centers in NBA Draft Combine history at the time WCS posted:

• The fastest lane agility drill time (better than the average score for pgs).
• The 2nd fastest ¾ sprint time.
• The highest max vertical reach (tied for 1st).

On top of the ELITE athleticism WCS looked defensively dominant for the 38-1 Kentucky Wildcats. An NBA executive even told me that WCS was THE best defensive prospect he had seen over his long career. Unfortunately, Willie’s NBA career did not play out as expected. 

Missing on WCS taught me two lessons: 

1. Even top 1% athleticism is not guaranteed to translate to NBA defensive dominance. Now, I prioritize decisive defensive decision-making over athletic tools. 
2. Most players do not get a bigger role in the NBA so it’s important to know if the player will embrace their NBA role. WCS said “The story on me going into this draft is that I’m an elite defender with a raw offensive game. In my head I’m thinking, how would you even know what I’m capable of offensively?” Self-belief is good but so is self-awareness.

Charlie Cummings

Jerome Robinson.

Okay, take a moment to laugh. I deserve it.

I learned two hard lessons with Jerome Robinson. First, don’t place stock in a couple of big games above the overarching body of work (in this case, his 24 points in Boston College’s upset of #1 ranked Duke and 46 points against Notre Dame). Before “that dawg in him” was on the radar, let alone criminally overused, that’s what I thought Jerome had.

I also failed to see how the athleticism would (or wouldn’t) translate. He simply did not have the physical tools to keep up defensively or create consistent rim pressure, and the perimeter scoring alone was not strong enough to keep him on the field. So a player I ranked 7^th when draft Twitter consensus had him 39^th unsurprisingly flopped. The career 4.5 PPG on a 43.9% eFG hit me like a shotgun to the chest.

Now I know to balance the good games scouted with the bad ones, and to value athletic tools as the ultimate “make or miss” aspect of a prospect profile. Thank you, Jerome, for the brutal lesson.

Dennis Janßen

LaMelo Ball.

Sounds weird, because I had LaMelo #1 on my board as of the draft, but it took me a long time and some outside influence to come around on him. Everybody remembers the Ball-led Chino Hills teams and especially the skinny, blonde-dyed haired LaMelo pulling up from halfcourt, scoring 90+ points in a high school game (including accusations of opposite coaches to ruin basketball in its entity). I had my fair share of reservations about LaMelo, including being heavily biased from the media coverage I got living overseas, which was mostly on the negative side.

Inefficient, broken shot, selfish, showboating without any hope he could guard anyone on an NBA floor was my broad takeaway from watching him in high school and the NBL and I missed the forest for the trees. What happened?

I started draft scouting with the 2020 cycle, was extremely clueless contextualizing player development and growth of youth players. What really opened my eyes in regard to LaMelo Ball was a piece about him from PD Web:

L A M E L O

The look behind the curtain revealed that LaMelo actually is an outer-worldly, instinctual basketballer that maybe just needs some further polish in his game. Like PD said, “All Ball all the time has not really allowed for jumper surgery, the similarities from when I first saw Melo in middle school to Chino to overseas to now are striking.” His youth career was unique in a sense of really pushing his feel and decision-making development, whilst not establishing the typical “old school” baseline of things like a constant defensive motor or visually appealing jumper. Melo is a unique prospect that required a different look at his tape I wasn’t able to have at the time. It didn’t take long for him to really beat off most of my concerns about his shot and overall efficiency, whilst being one of the most promising young ball handlers of the league.

Oscar

Sharife Cooper.

In my time as a draft scout, I’ve encountered few prospects as tempting to proclaim support for as Sharife Cooper. Coming out of Auburn, Rife presented the perfect storm of factors that made his hill one worth dying on: a wildly exciting player with several exceptionally rare traits and statistical indicators, plus with a crowd of bad faith detractors pointing to a 12 game college 3pt shooting sample as evidence of his bust potential. 

Sharife’s combination of handling ingenuity, virtuosic passing acumen and advanced finishing toolbox fueled my belief that he could be the exception to the rule for small guards making the leap to the league. His stint at Auburn was statistically unprecedented in a variety of ways: his free throw rate (.560, more than 10 FTs/40 mins), assist rate (52%!), and touch indicators (83% from the line, consistent pinpoint accuracy as a high volume lob thrower) were all gargantuan green flags for an offensive engine prospect. Many evaluators were scared off by Cooper’s poor 3pt shooting at Auburn (13/57 for a ghastly 23% mark), but I never saw this as a big issue considering his solid pre-college shooting track record and career-long proficiency from the line. Indeed, Cooper has shot a rock solid 137/379 (36%) from deep on about 7 attempts/100 possessions in his 76 G-League games to date, a mark that many of his doubters swore he would never reach only 2 years ago.

The more legitimate critique of Cooper’s game to me was always whether he could overcome the razor-thin margin for error that small guards get as inside-the-arc scorers and defenders. Two years into his NBA career, it seems like the answer to this question is a no (though I’m holding out hope that he’ll flourish in bench minutes if given the chance!).  

Ultimately, my mistake was zeroing in on what most people pointed to as Sharife’s weakest skill: his touch is good, it was always good, and any evaluator using a holistic shooting projection would have told you so at the time of the draft. But I was too quick to earmark Cooper as a lottery lock simply because I didn’t buy the primary argument of the scouts who were fading him. This is a fairly intuitive thought process: everyone seems to agree that Player X’s swing skill is shooting, I have no doubt that this player will shoot, therefore I must be higher on him than the public and should move him up my board. This is one of the pitfalls of allowing the shadow of consensus to creep into personal evaluation: perhaps if I wasn’t so familiar with Cooper’s prospect narrative as an alleged non-shooter, I would’ve examined the other potential pitfalls in his skillset with a closer eye. 

Nick

Tyrese Haliburton.

As someone who was young and just getting into scouting at the time, Haliburton slipped past my mind as a real guy in his 2020 NBA Draft Class and I believe this miss ultimately made me a better evaluator in the long run. I had major reservations with Haliburton compared to people who had him top 10 or even top 5 in that draft class. This was also the most chaotic draft cycle with the pandemic limiting games and delaying the draft until November, and also there being nearly no consensus within draft twitter. With there being no consensus as far as rankings for this draft cycle, you really had to know your stuff and if you saw a guy you really believed in, there was pretty much free reign to move him up where ever you saw fit. 

When the people that knew their stuff saw Haliburton, they saw the elite advanced stats, high feel and IQ, plus a great 3PT shooter and passer. When I saw Haliburton it was the weird jumpshot, average handle and below average ability to get to the rim that concerned me. My thinking at the time was in his best outcome, Haliburton would be a player similar to Lonzo Ball. Elite role player, good 3PT shooter and passer, great IQ but those flaws would hinder him from becoming anything above that and boy was I wrong: I knew I underrated him from just watching him his rookie year.

Some key attributes I missed on that led him to being better than I anticipated was his shot versatility and him being a 41% 3PT shooter off the bat in his rookie year. I thought he would at least need some type of adjustment with his slow load up type and having somewhat of a set shot but nope. And he was also able to get those threes off in a variety of ways that clearly showed he could handle more of an offensive load than I projected. Another key trait of Haliburton’s that I slept on was his ability to be a true point guard. While I thought he was a PG before, I projected him to be more of an off-ball PG where he would be best with a jumbo creator. Tyrese instantly showed he can handle the ball effectively and had a great deal of passing versatility that let him be more of a real creator than I anticipated. 

By missing on Haliburton: I learned to trust funky jumpshots if the touch was clearly there and if they got their shots off in a variety of ways; I learned to ease up on the comps because they can limit your view of the prospect and lead you thinking one way when you should’ve been thinking the other way; and also just to trust the feel and IQ every time. This last part helped me in the next draft class to believe in Josh Giddey and Franz Wagner, when you combine superb mental reading/understanding of the game with great skill, you get special players, simply put. 

Emiliano

Robert Woodard II.

Even though I hung out in Draft Twitter circles since 2018, the 2020 Draft was probably the first one I followed very closely.

In that class, there was a guy I had relatively high on my board (early 20s) compared to the main stream and I was pretty convinced he would have become a decent NBA player. That player was Robert Woodard II.

Standing at 6’7, with a 7’1.5 wingspan, a bulky frame and a shiny 42.9% from three he was a catchy prospect for a relatively inexperienced viewer that was trying to build and affirm his own thinking. In hindsight, that really was a youthful mistake. Woodard had interesting skills and traits but he was more of a solid 2nd round bet than a sure first rounder.

I didn’t see (or I pretended I didn’t see?) some red flags and the overall process was chaotic. I learned some meaningful lesson from that misevaluation:

Archetype isn’t everything

At the time I let the “3&D wing” label single-handedly convince me that he was “NBA ready” and deserved greater attentions.

Archetypes are easy to identify but actual skills and their level are what matters.

Don’t rely on small samples

The 42.9% from three was a really appealing component of Woodard’s profile. However, he attempted only 70 threes in his sophomore season at Mississippi State. This sample wasn’t reliable, nor was it even indicative.

Indeed, he never really find his shot at the next level: he made just the 30.4% of his threes in G League through 3 seasons (116/381, considering Regular Season and Showcase)

Scoring talent matters

In hindsight, it’s hard to find good NBA 3&Ds that were strictly low usage 3&Ds at the college level. Generally it seems easier for players with a decent offensive talent to scale down to reduced roles where they can excel. Woodard had some indicators of a certain lack of scoring talent, but his low usage (18.2%), poor free throw shooting (61.7% college career) and obvious lack of shooting volume were red flags I missed.

@BeyondTheRK 

Mo Bamba.

What ultimately separated the two unicorns of the 2018 NBA Draft were the little things that are hard to catch without watching the film. One player showed ball skills, control, instincts, traits that could realistically develop a talented prospect into a primary versatile scorer and defensive anchor rather than merely a secondary rim-rolling pick-and-pop play-finisher.

The first player flashed nearly every fundamental skill in the book: ambidextrous baby hook soft touch finishing at the rim; ISO dribble moves on the perimeter; pristine post-up footwork; deep shooting range with a unique shot release that made pull-up threes an option for a fringe seven-footer; the awareness to rotate, switch, and protect the rim on a whim. Maybe most importantly, he looked like he gave a sh*t hustling out there on both ends.

The second player impressed with improbable shooting touch for his size, rebounding well and swatting endless shots in help defense, before decompressing when it came to effort plays like setting screens, hard rim-rolls, or simply sprinting down the floor.

For these two prospects, the measurables and defensive stats left evaluators seeing similarly positive signs on paper pointing to similar signs of success:

Heights of 6’11” and 7’
Wingspans of 7’5” and 7’9”

Neither big man prospect was a strong post-up defender against bigger opposition on the block., yet Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mo Bamba finished 1st and 2nd in BLK%, DBPM, and overall BPM, while helping their collegiate teams rank Top-15 in defensive rating.

Jaren: 14.2 BLK% | 5.9 Stocks | .414 3PAr | 39.6 3pt% — 64.7 TS% — 79.7 FT%
Bamba: 13.0 BLK% | 5.2 Stocks | .189 3PAr | 27.5 3pt% — 59.3 TS% — 68.1 FT%

Mo Bamba ranked 7th in PIPM (+7.24) among all college players measured in 2017-18 and 2018-19, rating just behind Mikal Bridges (5th, +7.57) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (6th, +7.54), via Jacob Goldstein’s Player Impact Plus Minus metric.

Jaren’s main statistical profile advantages were shown in efficiency.

On top of averaging more STL+BLK (5.9) than every top big prospect in his 2018 NBA Draft class (Bamba, Carter, Ayton, Bagley), JJJ scored as efficiently across the board (65% TS%), shooting as well or better on three-point volume (.414 3PAr) and efficiency from beyond the arc (39.6% 3P%) and at the pinstripe. (79.7% FT%)

A historically impressive shot-blocker was also the best 3PT and FT shooter in his class, revealing clean postup footwork, soft finishing touch, developable ball-skills, and effective awareness to know where to be to do the little things asked of a big. While feel for the game can’t be measured, it felt like JJJ’’s feel was off the charts.

My Final 2018 Orlando Magic centric Big Board (drafting with that team in mind)

1. Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Mo Bamba
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
6. Mikal Bridges
7. Trae Young
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Michael Porter Jr.

Ranking Jaren 2nd overall in a tier with Luka atop my big board feels like my best draft hit ever, yet one of my worst draft misses comes soon after with Bamba at 4th and Ayton at 3rd over a star-studded lottery.

While Ayton’s offensive game creates midrange mismatches and his defensive rotational effort improves when motivated, letting consensus bias win out in my thought process over the more tantalizing high-potential two-way wing and perimeter playmakers is another misevalutation here by me: A month or so before the draft, I rankted Mikal Bridges 4th, Michael Porter Jr. 5th, Mo Bamba 6th, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8th.

By the time draft night rolled around, I talked myself into Bamba’s best case 3&D anchor upside over tall dynamic two-way wings Bridges’s and Porter’s instinctual versatile big wing defense, tough shot making, and outside shooting, also leaving all-star scoring creator guards Shai and Trae behind Mo as well. My Final Magic Big Board bumped Bamba up to 4th (bad) and Shai up to 5th (good), moving down Bridges to 6th (bad) and Porter to 9th (bad, partly due to back concerns).

In defense of Bamba, this Orlando Magic team was never invested in him as a starter, removing majority of opportunity for playing with starting-caliber playmakers; Mo did not log one minute on the floor with the young core of Fultz, Gordon, and Isaac. Touches were sparse as long as the offense ran through the high-usage post-up hub in Nikola Vucevic; on the other hand, any playing time Mo received tended to go to other bigs who brought more energy running the floor like Khem Birch and Mo Wagner.

I have had more glaring draft misses, as I too am waiting on the Sharife Cooper league takeover tour. I was unimpressed by the safe choice of Cole Anthony over prospects I viewed with higher ceilings, tweeted loudly about Maxey, Bane, and Poku next to Fultz and Isaac on draft night.

Drafting the wrong prospect at the top of any draft could set a team back for years; doing so in a class as historically talented as 2018 could be extremely detrimental. While 2018 remains my favorite draft class to have scouted to this day, this slight, late-process change of opinion moving a prospect up the board too late in the game based on “what-if” potential could have major consequences to a team-building process. Orlando seemingly could have moved out of their 6th pick draft slot in 2018, but rumors say they were just as excited as I was about the possibility of selecting Bamba in hopes of him reaching his ceiling as “Gobert with a three point shot”.

Mo Bamba leaves Orlando ranked 1st All-Time in BLK% (6.8%); 6th All-Time in Blocks (364); 13th All-Time in Rebounds (1,556); 37th All-Time in Points (2,037). A seven-foot play-finishing plus-rebounding help-side shot-blocking three point floor-stretcher should have a long career if offered a defined role in this league, in theory. Can Mo Bamba find a playmaker to fully unlock his game, the Chris Paul to his Deandre Jordan? The James Harden to his Ryan Anderson/Serge Ibaka?

Bamba’s Career-High 32 PTS arrived in Philadelphia against his current team, the 76ers, after dropping 5 3PM & 3 BLK in the second quarter. Could Mo still fill a shot-swatting pick-and-pop role similar to Myles Turner in the right situation?

Evidence exists for Mo to succeed in a baseline 3&D role; it’s the little things in and out of his control like effort, consistency, fit, team investment and opportunity that must align. Not living up to some hypothetical potential ceiling doesn’t mean a prospect can’t succeed as the player they end up being as long as they compete, develop, and learn winning habits to carve out a lengthy career. While Bamba’s path to “Gobert with a three point shot” grows narrower by the day, there’s hope he can stick around this league for awhile longer with the right role.

Until then, kids, please stand for the national anthem.

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