A Development Story from defensive instincts, shooting touch, and two-way versatility to NBA Superstar
“A boat’s a boat, but a mystery box could be anything; it could even be a boat!” – Peter Griffin
Potential lies in the eye of the beholder.
To some, potential is the highest hypothetical ceiling of a prospect if all the flaws of that prospect magically disappear overnight; to others, the most realistic development paths rely on legitimate foundations of proven talent.
Realistic potential relies on skill flashes in the pan slow-cooking in the crockpot of one’s career, whereas hypothetical potential is often raised up by empty hype based on nothing more than blind hope.
What are some signs of realistic potential, where one could project aspects of a player’s game blooming from specific budding skills?
What Defines a Good Basketball Player?
When a prospect consistently shows soft shooting touch from multiple areas of the floor, such as finishing at the rim in a variety of fashions, cashing in floaters in the midrange, and knocking down free throws at an above average rate, one could realistically project that player to continue developing as a shooter and scorer, perhaps even a tough shot-maker.
When a prospect shows the ability to dribble a basketball without turning it over, that ball control unlocks all sorts of scoring opportunities for the player and the team. Working on handles with dribble drills can unlock different types of shot creation for any player to drive to the rack, maintain control on moves, and look to create advantages that lead to easier scoring opportunities for themselves or teammates.
Making the extra pass to the open man around the arc or on a drive-and-kick could signal a future connector. Attacking, bending defenses before kicking out, threatening to score to draw away eyes from the defense, could reveal a player’s readiness for a larger creator role.
Developing some of the toughest ball-skills involves deliberate practice with hours of repeating the same shot or drill at a local park or in an empty gym. Showing work ethic, willingness to learn, and coachability are traits any team values; combining that approach with the talent it takes to develop these traits leads one to believe other ball skills can be improved in a similar routine, with the same effort, focus, and mechanical mindset that got the prospect where they are today.
Prospects who develop dribbling, passing, and shooting become well-rounded offensive players. Players who combine good handles, vision, and touch with natural feel for the game can combine the sum of their parts to become good basketball players on one end of the floor and legitimate offensive stars at the highest level.
These all-around prospects become self-made scoring creators, creating good looks for themselves and teammates on a consistent basis, whose next challenge is to balance making unselfish team decisions with a selfish scoring mindset.
Good basketball players don’t hurt their team. Not hurting your team means competing hard on both ends of the floor, being a plus-defender and sound decision-maker, or at least bringing so much positive impact with otherworldly talent on one side that it makes up for minimal impact on the other side.
Even then, if a slight 6’2” sharpshooter named Steph can become an average defender for his position, no one really has an excuse.
Effort shouldn’t have to be coached, especially at the highest level.
The Scarcity of Versatility
Versatility overflows in positivity; one can never have enough versatility.
On offense, this word means threatening to score multiple ways simultaneously. Having lineups of players who can fulfill different traditional roles all at once, whether that be initiating a play on the ball or finishing a play off of it.
Scoring versatility relates to a player’s shot profile, the ability to score in different methods in different areas of the floor.
Role versatility involves a players being able to switch between roles, ranging anywhere between running some point one play, looking to score first off the dribble the next play, attacking a closeout after that, popping out for three later on, and/or rolling to the rack for a thunderous throwdown inbetween.
Matchup versatility revolves around teams with multiple versatile players being able to play at different paces and styles, affording the coach a multitude of lineup options to play around with in search of finding competitive advantages without shooting themselves in the foot while doing so.
Defensive versatility can be simplified to guarding multiple positions. Being able to switch no matter the matchup; protecting the paint and guarding the perimeter. Having the lateral quickness, body control, and spatial awareness to move side-to-side with ease, rotate from the corner to the nail to tag the roller, and shift schemes seamlessly between hedging, switching, trapping, dropping in pick-and-roll defense to keep offense on their toes.
The epitome of a versatile defender in the modern game is someone long and quick enough to guard a team’s perimeter creator at point-of-attack, agile enough to switch onto the team’s big wing, tall and instinctual enough to time up blocks at the rim while rotating in help, and strong enough to hold their own on the block without giving ground.
A rim-protecting defensive anchor who can switch out and pick up just about anybody at any time, such as Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, and Jaren Jackson Jr.
One doesn’t need to hone every skill mentioned to be versatile, but the more roles a player can fill (or at least threaten the defense that they might fill) on either side of the floor, the more versatile that player is.
The more well-rounded team-first two-way good basketball players that a team rosters, the more versatile that roster becomes.
The Path to Stardom
Memphis Grizzlies star Jaren Jackson Jr. combines rare natural traits with awareness, skill, and instincts to create an ever-active ball-swarming shot-swatting one-man wrecking-crew on one end of the court and a floor-stretching dribble-driving mismatch-hunting walking bucket on the other.
At Michigan State, Jaren flashed a rim-protecting play-finishing skillset coveted in modern pick-and-pop bigs by every team
In the NBA, JJJ now defines the unicorn label as well as any player alive on the planet.
Jackson will rotate three times and block two shots in one possession, revealing his play-by-play paint-protecting impact while always hovering in help-defense.
Now a franchise cornerstone who can score as the lead option, attack closeouts as the second, spread the floor as a sniper, punish mismatches on the post, and beat bigs off the dribble, Jackson showed early on-ball scoring potential in flashes, when deciding to attack and when given the opportunity.
Trey J’s jumper has a unique shooting form for someone his size. A rapid-fire catch-and-pull-up resembles a low-to-high gather before releasing on the way up that guards like Steph Curry makes look so impossible to guard off the dribble.
At Michigan State, Jaren shared the spotlight with Miles Bridges, Coach Izzo’s #1 scoring option. Bridges specialized in ISOs from the wing, while Jaren spaced the floor for quick-trigger jumpers, crashed the boards, and offered a secondary post-up option. Fans argued Jackson wasn’t being aggressive enough; some could say his modern-big skills were underutilized.
Jackson brought ambidextrous finishing, strong footwork, and soft touch near the rim, while displaying great understanding of the game on both ends of the floor.
JJJ quickly racked up a lot of blocks and threes; more than his peers, and more than just about anyone who ever played collegiate basketball:
Draft Class Superlatives
Voted most likely to be a shot-swatting 3pt sniper, Jaren Jackson Jr. averaged more STL+BLK (5.9) than every top big in his 2018 NBA Draft class (Bamba, Wendell, Ayton, and Bagley), scoring as efficiently across the board (65% TS%) and shooting as well or better than everyone from beyond the arc and the free throw line.
JJJ joined Karl Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis as the only freshman since 2011 with 5+ OBPM and 10+ DBPM, via @advancedstats23. (twitter)
Jackson and Bamba finished Top-2 in BLK%, DBPM, BPM, while helping their teams rank Top-15 in defensive rating.
Jaren: 14.2 BLK% | 5.9 Stocks .396 3pt%, .647 TS%, .797 FT% (.414 3PAr)
Bamba: 13.0 BLK% | 5.2 Stocks .275 3pt%, .593 TS%, .681 FT% (.189 3PAr)
Ayton: 6.1 BLK% | 2.6 Stocks .343 3pt%, .650 TS%, .733 FT% (.078 3PAr)
Bagley: 1.5 BLK% | 1.9 Stocks .386 3pt%, .642 TS%, .622 FT% (.132 3PAr)
Taking a higher percentage of his shots from beyond the arc (.414 3PAr) than all three other bigs combined, Jaren made a higher percentage of those threes than anyone, nearly reaching the elite 40% threshold (39.6% 3P%), while also knocking down the highest FT% (79.7%) of any top big prospect in his class.
All are positive indicators if not bright flashing lights signaling a super-skilled big with the touch, work ethic, and jump shot to bring real shooting skills to the next level and maybe even develop three-level scoring prowess in the long-term, without even mentioning his otherwordly rim-protecting and turnover-forcing numbers.
A historically impressive shot-blocker was also the best 3PT and FT shooter in his class, with clean postup footwork, soft finishing touch, developable ball-skills in every area, and effective awareness to know where to be to do the little things asked of a big.
While feel for the game can’t be measured, it felt like Jaren’s feel was off the charts.
In terms of overall impact, Jaren Jackson Jr. ranked 7th in Player Impact Plus Minus (+7.54) among all college players measured in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, rating right between Mikal Bridges and Mo Bamba. Notably, Zion Williamson and Brandon Clarke collegiate impact jumped off the page, via Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM metric.
Cerebro Sports tracks data from early on in the prospect development cycle to quantify each player’s ever-changing role and situation throughout their basketball journey, from the beginning. Rob James (@RobJamesHoops) of Cerebro has been impressed by Jaren Jackson Jr.’s high two-way floor and instinctual feel for the game for a long time:
“I was there from 2014-2018; in EYBL/HS, I either had 50-60 game minimums.
Jaren shot 39% from 3 on about 140 attempts. The Stretch 5 capability was always there. He was going to hit 3s and protect the rim and score effectively without needing a ton of usage.
Son of a pro is a cheat code, a sweetheart kid of a glue guy dad so getting his was never his thing. Program he comes from, Indy Heat, is basically a “feel for the game” assembly line. So knowing how to play in that body (SUPER young, wouldn’t really hit physical stride til 22-23) he was always gonna be in the league as a BASELINE Al Horford type competing in the playoffs for 10+ years, in my opinion.
Main issue was fouling. takes a long time for bigs to pick up the cerebral aspect of quarterbacking a defense, plus he was still growing into his body and young, hence the fouls were such a big problem early. Upside gets tricky. however the floor was starting for playoff teams for a LONG time.”– Rob James, Cerebro Sports
Some things can’t be taught. Basketball players who are long (wingspan), tall (height), with big hands tend to be more disruptive defenders, in swish theory.
Measureables that provide Jaren a more realistic pathway to maintaining defensive impact going from college to pro level:
(Draft Class Ranks)
Wingspan: 7’5.25 (3rd)
Hand length: 10in (T-1st)
Hand width: 10in (T-10th)
Height w/o shoes: 6’9.75 (7th)
Standing reach: 9’2 (6th)
Triple J Today
Today, Jaren is a star defender, shooter, and scorer.
How did he find his ultimate development path, resembling the closest player in the league to a modern day Kevin Garnett?
Mastering his defensive instincts to find better balance between forcing turnovers and not fouling. Finetuning that feathery touch into a reliable jump shot from downtown. Combining that deep range with ball control to develop into an on-ball scoring threat with counter-attack moves who can put the ball on the floor and drive to the cup.
Jaren’s profound scoring versatility is most evident in his Synergy shot profile, bringing average to elite efficiency in every playtype. Few numbers highlight Jackson’s versatile shot profile and offensive role malleability as Points Per Possession.
Jaren Jackson Jr. averages 1.0+ PPP in SEVEN playtypes via Synergy, including ISO, Post-Up, Handoffs, Cuts, Putbacks, Transition, and operating both ends of the pick-and-roll.
Jaren ranks 42nd in ISO efficiency, rating in the 82nd percentile. His most efficient playtypes score 1.1 PPP in ISO situations, 1.04 on Handoffs, 1.25 PPP as the P&R Roll Man, and 1.0 as the P&R Ball Handler.
Jackson ranks 39th in the NBA in Dunks with 67; 27 times rolling to the hoop in P&R, Jaren scored 1.8 PPP on 16/19 FG!
Jaren just wrapped up the longest streak of 25pt games in his career with five straight, posting superstar numbers in the process with 29.8 PPG – 7 REB – 2.4 BLK on 68% TS% while shooting 35% 3P% on 5 3PA.
When Ja misses games, the entire Grizzlies’ rotation must fill a bigger role than usual, taking on more of a scoring load to fill the void. Some teams may be more prepared to do this than others, due to rosters featuring malleable talents that work cohesively in different ways. Ready or not, time for other options like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane to step up.
In the 9 games with Ja out, Jaren’s taken on a primary scoring option role. Winning six of those nine games, Jackson is averaging 23 PPG – 6 REB – 2 BLK while shooting 51-36-75 and winning six of nine games.
In Morant’s return off the bench, Jackson still couldn’t be contained, exploding for 37 PTS – 10 REB – 2 BLK – 1 STL on 14/20 FG and 8/11 FT in Houston.
JJJ’s strongest performance in the Ja-less run arguably came in the beefiest matchup: Memphis’ brewing smack-talk storm with the Golden State Warriors for the title of who really runs the West.
Jaren showed what he’s capable of when attacking all game while somehow having the frenetic energy to stay protecting the paint from every angle, leading all scorers in the Memphis-Golden State matchup with a huge 31 PTS on 64% TS% and 4 BLK.
Jaren takes advantage of his transcendent defensive instincts and never-ending effort to regularly time up blocks in help defense.
In a 5-second span guarding Pick-and-Roll in just the first possession below, help-defender Jaren Jackson rotates to the protect the rim, blows up the roller’s path, blocks the next pass recipient’s shot on the way up, then deflects another pass.
Try again.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has developed his touch into efficient range from downtown. What makes Trey J’s shot release look different for a big is how most tall shooters use the height of their jump at the top of their release to make their shot even harder to guard, like Rashard Lewis or the nearly unblockable Kevin Durant.
Jackson’s three-point threat creates easy closeout-attacking leverage to pumpfake even the smartest defenders off their feet. Jaren can replicate his upward shot release and soft touch from anywhere on the floor, such as the float game, where he makes drifting a one-handed flick shot over the defender look routine.
Here, JJJ sends Draymond flying by on the pick-and-pop pump, accelerates into the open space on the floor, processes his options, and swishes in the high-arcing teardrop FLOATA after realizing no contest was coming to stop him.
Jackson has filled out his frame to hold his own on the block at the pro level. Jaren now has the physicality to create position and soft touch to finish with finesse around the basket, with the body control to speed past bigger defenders.
Jackson’s rounded out his post-up game with footwork, finesse, and counter moves. Ranking 37th in Post Up efficiency, he’s tied with Aaron Gordon and percentage points ahead of Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, and Anthony Davis.
As of February 2022, Jaren had taken the 5th-most hook shots in the league, averaging a respectable point per possession when doing so.
Jackson can score over, through, and around nearly any defender standing in front of him. He can speed past bigs, overpower smalls, or rise and fire any time he wants.
A fringe seven-foot positionless rim-protecting do-it-all defender who can shoot on or off the ball or put the ball on the floor, glide to the rack, and finish with either hand at a moment’s notice?
What more could one want out of a basketball player who competes hard every possession on both ends?
What can defenses do when he’s in the zone? Send a double, hope someone else beats them. Even if he’s not known for creating looks for others, Jaren’s instincts, vision, and feel for the game build up a sound decision-making process; Jackson has the vision to notice the double-teams coming and the willingness to kick to the open man.
Versatility allows Jaren to shift roles seamlessly.
Jackson’s ability to overpower shorter players on the block and accelerate past bigs on the perimeter creates a walking mismatch.
With soft touch finishing around the rim, sound ball and body control, and a clean stroke from deep, an unguardable scorer on and off the ball is born; a two-way force who protects the paint every possession and can morph from primary scoring option into secondary floor-spacer instantaneously.
Was Jaren not aggressive enough as a scorer at Michigan State? Should he be praised for being more forthright now in the pros? Were these skills always around and sleeping dormant, or did Jaren finally receive an opportunity to produce as a primary scoring option on a consistent basis, something that’s never truly been asked from him at the NCAA/NBA level?
Maybe multiple things can be true. Jaren has certainly flashed his skillset in bursts.
Breaking out the handles and body control when given a chance, here’s JJJ in ISO dropping a double cross hesi drive one-handed jam back at MSU, because he can.
Jaren rapidly flashed his NBA-level D&3 credentials.
Recording a 7 BLK + 4 3PM outburst in his first 20 games as a rookie? because he can.
Knocking down a triple and getting back on defense to swat two shots in a row? priceless.
10 Graphs Visualizing Jaren Jackson Jr.’s NBA Development Path from Rookie to Franchise Cornerstone
Jaren Jackson Jr. was 1 of 8 Rookies to score 0.95 PPP with 100+ possessions in 1+ playtype, joining Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, Trae Young, Deandre Ayton, Miles Bridges, and Collin Sexton.
JJJ was scoring efficiently in Spot Ups, P&R Roll Man, and Transition situations as soon as he stepped on the hardwood.
#1. A Versatile Play Finisher
On Dec 3, 2021, Jaren Jackson Jr. broke the True Shooting stat with his shooting efficiency at 109.1% TS%.
Playing only twenty minutes, JJJ posted a +42 and a 109.1% TS% (!) with 27 PTS – 2 STL – 2 BLK shooting 6/7 3P.
#2. The Jumper is Legit
Even though Jackson’s surprisingly struggled in pick-and-pops this 2023 season, only hitting four of fourteen from deep in the playoffs, Jaren’s unfettered willingness to launch from deep continues to keep defenses up at night on the regular.
In 2023, Jaren’s slipped the pick as the roll-man 38 times, hitting 5/7 3P and scoring 1.3 PPP.
While efficiency is always a main goal; volume and confidence can go along way to stretch the floor, keep defenses away from the rim, and open the paint for others.
In 2021-22, Jaren was the 2nd-most efficient pick-and-pop option in the NBA as of January. Jackson served as the floor-streching rim-protecting star for an up-and-coming Grizzlies team that burst onto the playoff scene and isn’t leaving any time soon.
#3. Spacing the Floor for Rim Pressure
When visualizing the Hustle landscape of the league’s most active defenders last season (2021-22), Jaren popped out in multiple categories, ranking 7th in dFG% (41.8%)
Guards tend to rack up more deflections while bigs tend to contest more shots, which adds up given each respective position’s traditional roles of digging at balls on the perimeter and protecting the paint.
NBA Hustle Leaders in 2021-23 with < 43% dFG%, 80+ Deflections, 9+ dFGA/game, 40+gp:
1) Robert Williams 40.3%
2) Matisse Thybulle 40.5%
3) Jaden McDaniels 40.7%
4) Bruce Brown 41.2%
5) Draymond Green 41.6%
6) Caleb Martin 41.7%
7) Jaren Jackson Jr. 41.8%
8) LeBron James 42.2%
9) Deni Avdija 42.3%
10) Desmond Bane 42.4%
11) Rudy Gobert 42.5%
12) Bam Adebayo 42.7%
#4-5. Wingspan Everywhere
2022-23: The Stratosphere of Consistency
1/5/23: Jaren Jackson Jr. drops ORL 31 PTS 10 REB on 91% TS% while holding Paolo Banchero to 2/6 FG, forcing his Paolo’s turnover, with Jaren’s only foul coming on a chasedown block attempt (slammed home by Banchero for the AND1).
As of 1/6/23, Jaren Jackson Jr. Ranks 1st in Blocks/gm and BLK% along with 1st in Defensive EPM; 3rd in Defensive BPM; and 3rd in Cerebro’s Defense Statistical Impact. (DSI)
#6. First Team All-Defense
As of 1/18/23, Opponents were shooting 10% worse in the restricted area with Jaren Jackson Jr. ON the floor vs. OFF, via this phenomenal shot deterrence visual created by @Daniel_Bratulic.
A constant criticism that’s pained Jackson’s game like an Achilles heel may now double as Jackson’s most valuable improvement this season: foul trouble
Jaren’s starting to slow down, react more purposefully, and time his jumps to not rack up as many silly fouls. Developing defensive instincts into better decision-making.
As of 1/20, Jaren ranked among the league’s best in racking up blocks and steals without fouling and making hustle plays without giving up that relentless swarming defensive activity that got him to where he is today.
#7. The Fouls, with Proper Context
However, this area remains a concern for Jaren when teams attack the rim in pursuit of putting him in foul trouble, especially in the playoffs: what happens if the Grizzlies’ most impactful two-way player is unavailable for the team’s biggest moments?
Jackson will have to lean on the foundational traits that got him there: decision-making, instincts, timing.
Perennially facing foul trouble, Jaren’s only actually fouled out of four games in 2022-23. Why does Jackson only average 28 MPG?
Coming off an injury to start the year, Jaren began the season on a minutes restriction at 26.2 MPG in his first 28 games. Over his last 30 games, Jaren’s upped his playing time to 30 MPG.
This season, Jaren is racking up one more combined block+steal than any player in the league who also attempts a minimum of one C&S triple per game, with only 36 players launching more catch-and-shoot three-pointers every night.
JJJ’s DPOY-level two-way impact far outweighs his jumpy foul trouble tendencies.
Jackson’s averaging the best rate of STL+BLK divided by Fouls in his career. (1.16)
#8-9. The Epitome of 3&D?
Add in Deflections to the mix, and Jaren ranks near the top hustlers in the league this season, rating among Toronto’ perimeter players Fred VanVleet and O.G. Anunoby.
How many bigs plays like guards on the wing, breaking up passing lanes for deflections and stretching the floor from deep, all while still doing the little things that teams want bigs to do like putting a lid on the rim and rolling hard to the rack?
Block percentage (BLK%) is the percentage of a team’s blocks that a single player racks up while on the court. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s 9.8 BLK% is the 4th-highest ever block percentage recorded by basketball reference, just behind the top three seasons ever recorded by Manute Bol.
Memphis as a team ranks Top-15 in every defensive four factor:
2nd in Defensive Rating, 2nd in DEF eFG%, 6th in TOV% (forcing turnovers), and 12th in FT Rate (not fouling).
Every 3-man combo you can think of in Memphis’ core between Jaren, Ja, Bane, and Clarke jumps off the page in Net Rating, varying between 60-200 MIN via PBP Stats.
Jaren Jackson Jr.’s individual NBA Ranks (as of 3/24/23)
defense
1st in BLK% (5.3%), 100th percentile via Cleaning The Glass / 9.8% via BBall Ref
1st in BLK/gm (3), BLK/poss (0.5), BLK/MIN (0.11)
1st in 2PA BLK% (9.8)
3rd in Total BLK (167)
4th in Defensive EPM via Dunks and Threes
4th in %BLK via NBA Stats
7th in Defensive BPM via BBall Ref and DSI via Cerebro Sports
7th in Contested Shots (10.8, Tied with Anthony Davis, Isaiah Stewart, Myles Turner)
60th in Deflections (2.0, Tied with wings Mikal Bridges, Devin Vassell, Franz Wagner
3pt shooting
48th in C&S 3PA on 34.2% C&S 3P%
83rd in 3PA volume (4.5, Tied with Nikola Vucevic, Joe Harris, McBuckets, Tobias)
95th in 3PM/gm (1.5, Tied with guards Ivey, CP3, T-Ross)
124th in 3P% (34%, in line with Doncic, Tatum, Brown, Fox,Young)
150th in 3PAr (.35, Tied with Kristaps Porzingis and Jaden Ivey)
Among Vegas-favorite candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren ranks highest in Defensive EPM along with leading the league in in BLK+STL and BLK%.
Only Nic Claxton ranks slightly higher in Cerebro’s Defensive Statistical Impact metric, while Joel Embiid, Draymond Green, and Giannis Antetokoumnpo rate higher in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus stat.
When counting fouls as negative plays against the turnover-forcing positive possessions, Nic Claxton, Brook Lopez, and Kawhi Leonard rank higher than Jaren, though Jackson has progressed t the 11th-best BLK+STL/Foul rate in the league.
#10. The Soon-to-Be DPOY?
The son of a former NBA player, Jaren Jackson grew up in the world of basketball.
Jaren’s understanding of the game, reactionary awareness, profound footwork, soft touch and special jump shot at his height and length provided a sizable foundation to develop skills on both ends of the floor.
Hard work off the court, endless effort on the hardwood, and a lifetime of learning the intricacies of the game have allowed Triple J to grow from a prospect with realistic potential to proven superstar player.
Finding a star as talented and coachable as JJJ is about as rare a sight as seeing a horse with a horn on its head dribbling a basketball.
A strong defensive anchor, an offensive engine, a franchise cornerstone.
An elite and versatile defender, shooter, and scorer.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is the true unicorn.
Data via Dunks and Threes, Synergy Sports, Cerebro Sports, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, PBP Stats. Follow @BeyondTheRK on Twitter, Substack, YouTube for NBA film scouting and basketball data science.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
No items foundRelated Articles
