The 3-point revolution was always coming to the NBA. It took a while, but by the time Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors ascended, the train had already left the station. Curry merely became the face of the movement, and why not? Whether fans realized it at the time, his volume and efficiency from deep wasn’t the foundation, it was the result. He moved like nobody else, ripping off absurd dribble combinations with the ball or re-defining the art of screen-usage away from it. But he is not the sole forefather of modern hoops. Curry is an anomaly. The greats always are.

Caitlin Clark’s impending selection at #1 by the Indiana Fever in the 2024 WNBA Draft is not the genesis of the next era of women’s basketball; it’s been coming for a while. The Clark-less 2023 WNBA season set viewership records all over the place, and will continue to do so as the next generation of hoopers set to dazzle us. Just look at the talent-pool that will remain in the NCAA next season.

The talent boom is here, and as evolution goes, it was made possible by the singular talents of the past, names who new women’s hoops fans (many introduced by Clark) may not be familiar with, but are unknowingly reaping the benefits of. 

Caitlin Clark The Phenomenon is a cocktail of the work done by past legends, which has led to exploding interest in the women’s game, in part thanks to social media, which fixates on her must-see matchups at Iowa, which needed a formidable dancing partner. But the key ingredient is Caitlin Clark The Player, as dazzling as she is effective.

The ease with which Clark flings 30-footers both off-the-dribble and off-the-catch creates defensive emergencies near half-court. Clark then has both the ball-handling flexibility and passing chops to access the best response to any coverage, not to mention, she’s six-feet tall. In each of her last three seasons at Iowa, she grabbed over seven boards a game, which ignited the Hawkeyes’ transition game thanks to Clark’s ability to throw 70-foot outlets for layups. She is a terrifying offense unto herself.

None of her individual skills are entirely unprecedented, but the whole package just might be. Caitlin Clark likely isn’t the greatest WNBA prospect ever, nor the greatest raw talent ever. But she is an anomaly, and that’s why she’s going #1.

Lucas Kaplan

2. Cameron Brink, Stanford

Cameron Brink’s intersection of 2-way paint dominance and scoring versatility is virtually unprecedented. A likely #1 pick in a typical draft class, she pairs a refined drop big skillset with touch indicators that suggest elite playfinishing upside on the other end. 

On offense, Brink projects to contribute primarily with the ball out of her hands. She served as an offensive focal point for Stanford, taking on a heavy playmaking load (2.8 assists/2.4 turnovers in 25 mpg) operating out of the post, but it seems more likely she evolves into a do-it-all connector at the next level. Perhaps not the physical outlier it takes to be a go-to WNBA post scorer, her touch from the perimeter and reliability as an interior finisher should allow Brink to maintain a diverse shot profile. 

While her jumper inconsistency points to limitations as a scorer, Brink has all the tools to be effective on a play-to-play basis. She dominates the offensive glass to the tune of three boards per game, and can be deployed in a variety of ways. In any given set, Brink can be found setting physical screens, spacing from three or rolling to the basket, effective across the board even if not elite. Most of all, Brink plays with a good sense of how to bend a defense, and plays with her trademark intensity to carry ideas out.

Brink is a monster rim protector, leading the NCAA in blocks while being second in defensive boards. At 6’4’’ with a 6’8″ wingspan, Brink can cover massive amounts of territory quickly, and she pairs this with an aggressive help style, not afraid to leave her feet. This can lead to foul trouble, with three or more fouls for the majority of her games this season, but also allows her to be an intimidating deterrent to keeping out of her lane.

The figures are staggering for Brink: opponents shot a miniscule 39% at the rim when she was on the floor compared to 54% when she was off. Stanford gave up 77 points per 100 possessions with her on the court compared to 95 when she was off. It is not just the tape – where she can be seen soaring and destroying shot attempts – which prove she can lead a very good WNBA defense. Let Brink sit in drop defense, or even a high drop and let her cover the entire paint. While her lateral mobility is good rather than great, her length, effort and timing make it so that hardly matters.

Cameron Brink finds herself at #2 for two reasons: Caitlin Clark is in this class, and no other player can contribute as much on day one while still providing sky-high upside. As dominant as they get in the interior, Brink will terrorize opponents for years to come. Should her shot continue to develop and offense branch out, it is difficult to project how high Brink’s impact could be. Don’t underestimate the floor or the ceiling.

Oscar

3. Rickea Jackson, Tennessee

To keep it simple, Rickea Jackson is a walking bucket. However, her scoring arsenal is the absolute opposite of simple. Jackson’s top 4 scoring possession types this season were pick and roll, post-ups, spot-ups, and transition. Her scoring frequency in these possessions goes as follows: 86 pick and roll possessions, 86 post-ups, 84 spot-ups, and 80 transition possessions. If you created a pie chart of Rickea’s scoring distribution, she would have four nearly even slices in these four categories, which is incredibly rare for dominant scorers. What makes this even more impressive is that she is labeled “good” or above in all 4 (being 70th percentile or higher in three out of the four). There are players who are jack of all trades, master of none as scorers, but I would say that Rickea is a jack of all trades with the potential of becoming a master of all.

Another stat that puts her scoring dominance into perspective: Rickea Jackson has led her respective teams (Mississippi State and Tennessee) in scoring for the last five seasons. Looking closer at her scoring tools, Rickea is currently blossoming into a three-level scorer. She is one of the best rim scorers in this draft, converting on 66.4% of her 197 attempts around the basket. Jackson displays excellence in both finishing off drives and on post-ups, as her touch and ability to finish through contact are quite advanced. She has incredibly impressive stride length, burst and functional strength, allowing her to get into the lane with ease. Rickea combines these eye-popping athletic traits with her technical skills in generating advantages off rip-throughs and ball control when making finishing adjustments. This culmination of abilities is an absolute nightmare for any matchup she faces, and is a big reason for her general scoring dominance.

When the rim is rarely walled off by opposing defenders, Rickea can go to her favorite counter: the short mid-range. Jackson shot 42.7% on 96 short mid-range attempts this year, which is such a vital counter for scorers in the WNBA. She does a great job of recognizing when to initiate contact to get into these shots and is very good at perceiving open shooting windows. Jackson is also comfortable pulling up for long 2s as well, and she was in the 66th percentile in efficiency on these shots this past season. As for her outside jumper, Rickea Jackson has made lots of progress on this shot in the last five seasons. Since her freshman year, she has nearly tripled her volume of three point attempts while shooting 32.6% from outside this past season. She profiles as primarily a catch and shoot threat from deep, though she has shown flashes of three point pull-up shooting as well.

On the other side of the ball, Jackson is a solid wing/forward defender who is capable of taking on tough assignments. Jackson’s large offensive load has led to some inconsistencies from her defense in the past, but she seems to be finding the intersection between the high offensive volume and steady defense. She’s a quick lateral mover and is able to use her length to disturb ball handlers. Defensive rebounding is a strong suit of Jackson’s, as she aggressively attacks the glass and can get rebounds over taller players. 

All in all, Rickea Jackson’s game should translate seamlessly to the WNBA level, and the reasons above are why I believe she deserves to be a top 3 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft.

Josh Abercrombie

4. Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina

Kamilla Cardoso is always in control while staying dynamic, executing an essential role for the national champion South Carolina Gamecocks. The 6’7’’ big was the low post hub for Dawn Staley’s squad, posting and reposting with perhaps the best hands in class. Despite not starting until her senior season, Cardoso did not miss a beat, putting up per 100 possession numbers of 31 points, 21 rebounders and 5.3 blocks on 61% true shooting.

Cardoso’s size and athleticism bode well for her ability to fit in at the next level. She uses her length to wrangle in awry passes or block difficult shots, but more importantly has the sensibility for how her presence fits into scheme. She does not linger with the ball nor get complacent on the defensive side, making quick, fruitful decisions for her team.

In particular, I am optimistic in Cardoso’s ability to be a high-low threat. Her skill in the post allows her to get to the backboard, slipping past her defender, in the 88th percentile for layup efficiency on 289 attempts. But just as important is her passing acumen, slinging the ball with velocity and accuracy either to shooters spotting up form low post or entry passes from the high post. This ability prevents hard help from any angle.

Cardoso may not set the agenda on either side like the players higher up on this list. But she is extremely likely to be a useful WNBA player, already proven to execute at the highest adequacy possible at the collegiate level. Her interior dominance will translate, as will her general athleticism and feel for the game. A high floor prospect who can give starter minutes right away, I view her as the #3 player in the class, #4 on our consensus board.

Matt Powers

5. Aaliyah Edwards, Connecticut

In her senior season for the UConn Huskies, Aaliyah Edwards was the team’s unsung hero in their run to the Final 4. Bringing an incredibly versatile skillset to the table, she averaged 32.6 points, 17.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.1 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 100 possessions this season. Edwards has a unique way of leaving an impact on every single possession, boasting a degree of role malleability that is only rivaled by the game’s brightest stars.

Offensively, Edwards was often seen as both a playmaking hub out of the high post and as a play finisher. With excellent touch and a knack for creating contact, post-up scoring has become a massive strength for her. Over 117 post-up possessions this year, she shot 67.4% and generated 1.197 points per possession (PPP), ranking in the 96th percentile in efficiency. By scoring in the low, mid and high post alike, she can be deployed as a scorer from many spots despite her lack of a three point shot. As a primarily standstill shooter, she converted 36.4% of her 83 long mid-range attempts this season. This standstill jumper threat allows her to attack bigs off the dribble when they close out too aggressively, allowing her to get into her driving game.

Within UConn’s delay sets, Edwards was almost always the team’s ball handler at the top of the key when in the game. She excelled at making schemed reads in the flow of the offense, such as executing high-low passes, hitting 45 cutters in stride, and executing dribble handoffs. Her excellence in dribble handoff situations stems from an outstanding ability to make contact on screens and a keen sense for angles. Moreover, her capability to keep the ball in these situations and drive to the basket sets her apart from most DHO bigs. Coordination, functional handle, touch around the rim, and the ability to pass out are essential for a DHO big, and she absolutely exceeds in all of these requirements.

Defensively, Edwards did a magnificent job this season anchoring the second-best Power 5 defense in the country. One area that she excels in is her pick and roll coverage versatility, as she is capable of executing nearly any coverage there is. She can temporarily switch onto ball-handlers, hard hedge, and play a deep drop due to her combination of mobility and feel for space. When defending drives, her strength, lateral quickness, and active hands all pop off the screen, as she is able to shut off potential layups around the basket. She is also a solid rim protector when playing down low, though her 3.5% block rate may not stack up to some of the other anchors in this draft. As a result, she makes up for a lower block rate with a 3.1% steal rate. Edwards is great at intercepting poor post entry passes, a microskill that will certainly translate to the pros. Finally, her help instincts are very strong, as she consistently makes necessary rotations to prevent points from being scored.

Josh Abercrombie

6. Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State

Jacy Sheldon is a dynamic, offensively skilled guard with the Ohio State Buckeyes. She brings great two-way value and will slide in well for many different team constructs, as she figures to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft after a solid college career.

Offensively, Sheldon fills the role of “combo guard” to a tee, being capable of playing across both guard positions with her ability to be a value-add at the point guard position by helping to move the ball in transition, make solid reads in early offense, and get a team into their sets. However, in my opinion she trends more towards being an off-guard with her ability to shoot the ball from range at a steady clip (37% from three on 5 attempts a contest this past season) and mainly scoring-focused play on that end. Although just 5’10”, she plays much bigger than her size offensively, showcasing the ability to get downhill and finish through contact. I think offensively Sheldon is truly a three-level scorer.

Defensively, although Sheldon’s steal numbers are slightly inflated due to Ohio State’s propensity to utilize a full court press as their main defense, she is still very active and disruptive on that end. She makes the most of her great physical tools and basketball instincts to stay in front of drivers, provide effective help defense, and monitor the passing lanes to pick off errant passes. Sheldon’s screen navigation skills are also solid, and just like Sheldon plays bigger than her height offensively, she plays longer than her length defensively, mixing her speed and athleticism to cause issues for offensive players.

Jacy Sheldon comes into the WNBA a ready-made player that will be able to contribute immediately. With the star power at the top of the draft she may not pop off the proverbial page the same way, and superstar upside is more than likely not in the cards. However, as a solid player who brings a winning mentality and great skillset as a player, Sheldon is almost guaranteed to be in the league for a long time.

Corban Ford

7. Angel Reese, LSU

Angel Reese’s strengths are obvious when she’s on the court: she plays with determination and she’s a leader. While these are soft skills, I’d argue they inform her technique. Reese uses her energy and exuberant posture to effect all events, big or small. Her passing stands out, but more the chaos of it, as she whips the ball across the court, totally unexpected. No player in the class (with an obvious exception) is more capable of keeping the opponent on their toes, or else they’re in trouble.

The cornerstone of Reese’s game, however, is the defense. Producing three stocks per game, Reese applies her strength with force, attacking the ball no matter the location. There is an elegance to her chaos that puts the opponent on their back heels. This frenetic intensity is perfect to keep the offense guessing, deterring shots through intimidation as much as technique. But, especially on defense, she has the latter, too.

The offense is not as polished, though ‘not as polished’ still provided 19 points per game. The finishing is the concern, at only 42nd percentile at the rim, and ultimately keeps her out of my top 5. But you’re drafting her for her defense, anyways, and she still maintained average or better efficiency on post-ups (though barely), putbacks, transition and cuts. She can win on the offensive end too, purely through effort.

Angel Reese’s athleticism at 6’3’’ and effort to produce make her a worthy first round pick. If the touch somehow comes around some more (she’s up to 73% from the line), the 2023 NCAA tournament champion and Most Outstanding Player would be worthy of top six consideration.

Matt Powers

8. Alissa Pili, Utah

There are few more fun players in college basketball than Alissa Pili. While short for her position as a power forward, Pili more than makes up for it with her strength and creative application of that strength. In any given possession she could be found twirling into an opponent’s stomach, either carving space for a drive, sealing off in the post, getting position for rebounds, etc. She has a knack for jumping at the perfect moment to snag a board from a big with better position. She is one of the most compelling players to watch for these reasons.

Oh, she is also a bucket. Averaging over 20 points for the second straight season, Pili shot at the 89th percentile at the rim, 93rd percentile off the catch and 95th percentile off the dribble. She was 89th percentile at the rim and 82% from the line. Raising her three point attempts from 2 to 4 per game, cashing 40%, she provided valuable spacing for the Utah Utes.

This scoring and, especially, spacing is essential to her success at the WNBA level. Her clear weakness is foot speed in space, where I’d be anxious to see Pili guarding anywhere near the perimeter (even in spite of her well-timed swipes). But spacing the floor to this degree means you have to beat Pili at her game first.

Pili is not just a dazzlingly fun watch, but also flat out can play. Her team was 20 points better in net rating with her on the court, and she was top ten in the country in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). The W adaptation might take a minute, but the upside – especially as a scorer – is worth the first-round shot. 

Matt Powers

9. Nyadiew Puoch, Southside Flyers

One imagines Nyadiew Puoch’s WNBA role similar to that with the Southside Flyers: low usage, high activity. Despite showing some signs of handle, passing and scoring, there are too many rough edges in Puoch’s current game, technical details that need fixing, to expect any significant contribution right away. But if she could keep developing, perhaps by continuing to play overseas after being drafted, there is the outline of a solid WNBA contributor.

Puoch’s athleticism is the ceiling-raiser, with great mobility which combines well with consistent effort. In particular this shows on the defensive end, where her long wingspan and constant motion make areas of the court treacherous for her opponent. This athleticism and effort can be misguided, however, applied at the wrong time by accidentally walling off a teammate or turning her head at the wrong time. Normal issues for a 19 year old playing in a pro league, but issues nonetheless that would limit her WNBA immediacy.

Similar to her defensive strengths, the offense runs through activity and event creation, and also needs some polish. She is a constant blur of motion at her 6’3’’ size, circumventing an opponent with ease on cuts or in transition. While she should have no issue creating looks with this activity, and, it should be noted, her flashes of handle, it’s the finishing that is questionable. Puoch only shot 40% from the field, even while receiving these easier looks heading towards the rim. Her 67% from the line suggests the same: there is something to work with, even if the current result isn’t perfect.

Puoch has displayed this upside through scoring outbursts here and there, and, most importantly, pushes her creativity through sometimes adventurous passes or drives. But when it clicks, it really clicks, and one imagines the potential should her accuracy and feel improve even only a little bit. Early minutes would be difficult to come by, but with any additional development, Puoch could make her presence felt. If one of the handle, shot or passing continues to improve, Puoch could see real starter minutes. For this reason, she is a Swish first round pick.

Matt Powers

10. Charisma Osborne, UCLA

Charisma Osborne has one skill representative of her overall game: she is the best screen runner in class. When you try to knock Osborne out of a play, she hits you with speed first, getting low with flexibility but keeping her strength to stay on her path. She accelerates from there, with textbook closeout form. She has the tools, and the feel, and the technique. And you don’t want to mess with her.

Osborne was the best player on the 27-7 Bruins, where they had a +49 net rating (yes, net rating not plus-minus) when she was on the court, 21 points better than when off. While her three point percentage is disappointing for a guard, she is not without technique: she shot a shocking 90% from the line and an effective 71st percentile on 140 off-the-dribble jumpers. On 110 spots up, 91st percentile. She was 71st percentile on finishes, too: maintaining good but not great touch. When you take into consideration the shot context, her 32% three point percentage looks a lot less concerning.

But the real plus-value comes from everything else. The defense and defensive versatility (2x Pac-12 All Defense) mixed in with the ball distribution (2.1 assist to turnover ratio) make her the perfect connector. She can spark an offense by driving, too, and was strong out of the pick and roll (85th percentile on 100 possessions). 

While she faced some issues with scoring consistency due to lacking access to bankable buckets, she is always consistent in her effort and finding other ways to contribute. She may not look like a franchise cornerstone, but Osborne can raise the ceiling of a very good team, or keep a very good defense tied together with her activity and athleticism. These factors all make Osborne a Swish first round pick, and even higher on my personal board.

Matt Powers

11. Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech

Elizabeth Kitley’s draft stock will be a tricky evaluation for WNBA teams to make. She was one of the most productive and dominant players in all of college basketball last year, but she suffered a season ending ACL tear late in the 2022-2023 NCAA season, putting her ability to play her rookie season in jeopardy. Despite this setback, I believe that Kitley deserves to be a first round pick and fully expect her to bounce back stronger than ever.

Kitley’s superpower comes in post scoring – she racked up 303 post-up possessions this year and scored 300 points from these possessions. Before she even receives the ball, Kitley has an innate sense of when to duck in and where to initiate contact to carve out easy scoring opportunities. After Kitley receives the ball, she gets to put her impeccable footwork on display. Her patented move is her Dirk fadeaway, as her height and precise touch makes this an absolutely unguardable move. On 109 mid-range jumpers this season (mostly Dirk fades), Kitley shot a whopping 54.1%, including 59.5% on 37 long mid-range attempts. Pairing this with her 70.7% shooting around the rim, and defenses are almost forced to double her.

Teams all year had to pack the paint and double Kitley from a variety of locations, triggering double teams from areas all over the court. Some bigs struggle to respond to this, but Kitley did a good job of taking advantage of the attention she received. She showed a solid feel of passing out of double teams this season, as she displayed the ability to hit the open player to create a numbers advantage for Virginia Tech. 

Detractors of Kitley’s pro prospects cite her lack of mobility on defense as a potential swing skill for her. I am a bit less worried about this, as whatever team selects her will likely play her in a deep drop like she played at Virginia Tech. Even when she does have to cover drivers in face-up situations, she is fairly good at flipping her hips if she gets initially beat. While around the rim, Kitley is a great shot-blocker, using her length and great ball tracking to erase potential scoring opportunities. 

Kitley may not end up being a team’s primary scorer like she was for Virginia Tech, but I fully trust her ability to scale down and provide productive minutes for any team that selects her. She has the upside to take advantage of switching defenses with her post work, and can still be a big time late-clock scoring threat due to her fadeaway.

Josh Abercrombie

12. Celeste Taylor, Ohio State

Celeste Taylor is a defensive minded guard entering the draft from Ohio State after a solid college career that included stops at both Texas and Duke. The 5’11” guard is a chaos agent on the defensive end, generating deflections and steals at a high rate and using solid lateral quickness and speed to keep in front of the main offensive perimeter players of opposing teams, staying attached even through various off-ball actions and around any screens that she may encounter. Taylor’s defense is extremely impactful, and that skillset alone will guarantee her rotation minutes at the next level.

Offensively, Taylor’s swing skill is her jump shot. Once a relatively big weakness, she has improved her outside shooting each year over her college career (from 28% to 33% from three), and in addition to doing so she has also grown as a shot maker and advantage creator on the offensive end. Her mid-range game is smooth and she does a good job operating in that space, especially off of ball screens, and she can find open teammates adequately. With that being said, as disruptive as Taylor is defensively, the offensive game will have to improve to achieve the higher end outcome as a player in the WNBA.

Taylor will be a positive player with her defensive versatility and ability to function as a very scalable role player at the next level. Her improvement as a jump shooter suggests that there is continued growth to be had, and if she is able to continue to develop that in addition to being an advantage creator defensively, then Celeste Taylor can prove to be one of the great steals of draft, either late in the first round, or early in the second.

Corban Ford

13. Leila Lacan, Angers

Leila Lacan ends up as the #13 prospect on our big board, but this was not a consensus placement. I touted Lacan as the #5 prospect on my personal board, easily the highest of any contributor.

Even Lacan’s detractors will note the sell is quite easy. Lacan will turn 20 on June 2, and has been a key contributor for the French club Angers, which competes in the country’s top-tier league. In both league and FIBA play, Lacan has shown glimpses of every skill you could want from a big-time combo guard at 5’11”.

Lacan is a plus-athlete for her size, winning at the offensive point-of-attack by adding a plus-handle to impressive speed and length. From there, Lacan has shown the ability to hit any passing read that the defense gives her, whether it’s a pocket pass, a skip, hitting cutters, you name it. On the other end, she puts her tools to good use, leading the French league in steals this season with 3.2 a game versus just 2.5 fouls.

But as a devout believer, I admit the sell against Lacan in the first-round is also easy to make. She’s 19, yes, but her youth serves more as a point of comfort vs. genuine excitement. It’s a reason to ignore her shooting in the low-40s from two and, despite multiple games with deep, pull-up triples, shooting in the low-30s from three.

Lacan is the shiny mystery box of the 2024 WNBA Draft, a young prospect whose highlight reel is deserving of a lottery pick. Only 19! Perhaps I’ve been duped, too focused on what could be than what actually is. There’s no guarantee Leila Lacan puts it all together; for all the intrigue, she’s hardly ahead of schedule as a prospect. 

So, who’s gonna take the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

14. Helena Pueyo, Arizona

Helena Pueyo, a 5th year senior out of Arizona, has a case for best perimeter defender in this year’s WNBA draft. Her ability to make plays defensively jumps out both on film and the stat sheet, averaging a staggering 4.1 stocks (steals + blocks) in her final year of college. She’s able to rack up steals, blocks, and deflections so easily thanks to incredible hand-eye coordination and natural defensive instincts off the ball. 

Pueyo also developed into a solid offensive player over her time in college, albeit a low usage one. She’s a dependable shooter from both 3pt and midrange, capable of making shots both off-the-dribble and in catch and shoot scenarios. She’s also a good passer, despite not being a great creator overall, and is very adept at keeping the ball moving and making good decisions within the flow of offense. Helena’s real strength offensively, though, is as a finisher, where she made real growth as an upperclassmen. Despite mediocre finishing numbers throughout her first 3 years in college Pueyo shot an outstanding 75% at the rim her final two seasons, one of the highest numbers in this year’s draft. Overall, her lack of high-end ball handling or athleticism holds Pueyo back from being a threatening on-ball creator, but she has a very strongskill set for fitting into a complementary offensive role. 

Pueyo doesn’t project to be a star, but she’s very good at what she does. Between her tenacious defense and the offensive skillset to compliment other players, it’s not hard to envision her as a reliable perimeter role player in the W. 

AJ Carter

15. Nika Mühl, Connecticut

When you think of Nika Mühl’s game two things immediately come to mind: passing and defense. A 2x Big East DPOY, Mühl is an outstanding perimeter defender. She doesn’t rack up steals at as high of a rate as other guard defenders, but her ability to defend one-on-one is about as good as it gets. She’s hard to create separation against on the perimeter, fights over screens well, and isn’t afraid to play with toughness and physicality when cross-matched onto larger players. Despite UConn losing to Iowa in the tournament this year, Mühl’s defense against Caitlin Clark was truly outstanding in that game. Mühl is also an incredible passer and playmaker for others, backed by the fact that she’s UConn’s all-time leader in assists – obviously a tremendous accomplishment at a school as storied as UConn. 

The main area of weakness for Mühl right now is as a scorer. She isn’t very aggressive looking for her own shot and actually has more assists than points scored over the last 2 seasons, which is rare to see. The positive for Mühl though is that she does possess enough of a skillset as a scorer to where teams still have to respect her. She shot 36% from 3pt for her career at UConn including over 40% as a senior, so it’s not as if defenses can just leave her open on the perimeter. She also finishes at the rim at an above average rate and is comfortable making an open mid-range jumper, so it’s clear that Mühl can make shots from various spots on the floor when needed despite not looking to shoot much. 

All things considered Mühl has a valuable skill set despite never posting eye-popping numbers in college. She’s an outstanding defender and passer, can make open shots, and is backed by a very impressive college resume. That package of skills and pedigree makes Mühl an intriguing prospect to watch and worthy of a draft pick. 

AJ Carter

16. Dyaisha Fair, Syracuse

From the WNBA’s inaugural season in 1997 until the 2022-2023 season, ten players had joined the illustrious 3,000 points club. Seven of them went on to be all-stars in the WNBA, with many of them establishing themselves as some of the WNBA’s best. This past season, two new players entered the 3,000 points club: projected #1 overall pick Caitlin Clark and Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair. 

Selecting one of the most productive scorers in college basketball’s long history seems to be good draft process, and it also seems to be strong process to select one of the most prolific pull-up shooters in college basketball history as well. Dyaisha Fair fits into both of these categories. Fair was first in the country in points per game off pull-up jumpers this season at 10.6 ppg, 1.3 ppg higher than the tie for second place between Caitlin Clark and Juju Watkins (the top two scorers in all of college basketball). Among the leaders in pull-up three point attempts per game, Fair ranks second overall in pull-up three point attempts per game while shooting an incredible 39.7% on these looks. The next player shooting as efficiently or more efficiently on pull-up threes as Fair ranks 29th in pull-up 3 point frequency, shooting under half the amount of attempts of Fair. She is able to get into these looks off a variety of size-up combinations, but her most effective move may be her mis-direction stepback. This move blends synergistically with her effective between the legs move, which she often uses to open up driving lanes. 

More on pull-up shooting, Fair’s pull-up mid-range continues to be an important counter for her. Fair is more than capable of knocking down incredibly difficult mid-range attempts, often patiently double clutching on shots to avoid the outstretched arms of her defender. The threat of her mid-range helps her create easier looks around the basket, as defenders have to guard incredibly close to her at all times. Fair is a very creative finisher around the basket, making super difficult adjustments to open up looks at the basket.

The skill that brings together her incredible mix of scoring tools is her unbelievable handle. Fair’s career highlights are full of ankle breakers that would be many players’ best career plays. She is unbelievably shifty with the ball in her hands, creating easy driving lanes and open shooting windows. However, she is also more than capable of creating for others. One of my favorite microskills of Fair’s is her ability to rise up into a jumper, only to throw a dump-off pass at the apex of her jump. Her scoring prowess demands tons of attention from the defense, and she is quite good at finding teammates in advantageous scoring positions.

People that are low on Fair always talk about her short stature, but this has never stopped Fair from reaching the highest heights in basketball. They also tend to cite her defense as a weakness going forward, but Fair has some valuable defensive traits that will go a long way for her. For starters, Fair is a ball-hawk on defense, often making tough plays on the ball in passing lanes. Her quickness and instincts allow her to make these plays, and on the ball she is able to disturb ball-handlers with her quick hands. Fair is finally beginning to deservingly receive praise as a potential WNBA prospect, and I believe she can make an instant impact for any team that selects her.

Josh Abercrombie

17. Isobel Borlase, Adelaide

It is an uphill battle to be a dribble-pass-shoot threat in the WNBA, given the saturation of talent at the top. It is very difficult to get on-ball reps, especially as a young player, which gives me some hesitancy in projecting Isobel Borlase to get the development she needs against the highest competition in the world. But she has shown flashes of elite scoring and productivity against professional competition that suggests the payoff may be worth it.

As a starter on the Adelaide Lightning, Borlase gets daily experience playing next to and against WNBA players, most notably having as teammate the Chicago Sky’s Brianna Turner. While her outside shooting efficiency has been mediocre – only shooting 28% from three and 74% from the line – she has shown real signs of rim finishing through attacking the rim on the move. 

Borlase is a creative passer and effective ball-mover, even if she averages more turnovers than assists. The heightened competition compared to NCAA basketball makes efficiency production tougher to come by. But Borlase has shown stretches of dominance, putting up 31 point (on 12-16 shooting) and 25 point (on 7-13 shooting) games this season. The consistency needs improvement but is no surprise to lack in a 19 year old.

Betting on Borlase means you have space to allow her to continue to explore her versatile scoring and budding on-ball equity, trusting her to iron out the details over time. A solid athlete at 5’11’’, Borlase’s ability to fit in against competition above her years is a great sign she’ll figure it out in the WNBA, too.

Matt Powers

18. Kiki Jefferson, Louisville

Kiki Jefferson, like the other guard prospects given second-round grades on our big board, has flaws. But Jefferson is a well-rounded five-year college player that made the jump from James Madison to Louisville for her final year, and while her averages went down, no longer the alpha, Jefferson improved.

She shot 51.2% on twos, which is where the majority of her offense could come from in the W. She has a release built for the mid-range, and at 6’1” with serious core strength, Jefferson can get to that shot when she wants or drive to the rim, where she shot 54.3% last season, according to Synergy.

Jefferson shot 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes last season, taking just over two per game, occasionally reluctant to fire but hardly looking incompetent when she did. Those looking for optimism with Jefferson’s shot can point to her career free-throw mark of 81.5%, which jumped to 88.4% at Louisville.

None of this is wildly impressive, to be sure. Nor is the 2.3:2.1 assist:turnover ratio. The sell for Jefferson, my #14 prospect, is simple: She’s malleable. There’s more offensive talent to work with than, say Nika Mühl, but she possesses all the tools to reasonably hold her own on defense. Jefferson may not set up your offense on every possession, but you’ll feel comfortable with her handling in transition.

Kiki Jefferson is a multi-talented hooper. She just needs a bona-fide WNBA skill to pop. Will any team give her the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

19. Taiyanna Jackson, Kansas

Taiyanna Jackson may not be the most versatile player in this draft, but she does have one elusive quality: she protects the rim, and very well. At 6’6’’, Jackson was dominant on the defensive interior. Opponents shot 27% against her at the rim, only one percentage point higher than likely early first round pick Kamilla Cardoso. She blocked 6.5 shots per 100 possessions, exceeding even that of Cardoso, using her long wingspan and long strides to make plays from distance.

She has some significant holes in her game, most notably her careless passing, at a 0.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as her free throw shooting at 49%. But she has a presence on the interior on offense, as well, a 95th percentile finisher at the rim. If a team can hone in on these strengths and limit her role to her specialties, she could outperform.

Athleticism can get you on the court and Jackson has that in spades, a fluid mover for her size who engulfs opponents to snag the ball on either glass, and is mobile enough to patrol the entirety of the paint. You can trust her to deter shots on defense and pressure the rim on offense. These are bankable traits, even when considering the weaknesses.

A team needing a backup rim protector who can post up and crash the glass should take a long look at Jackson after the first round. While she lands near the end of our board, her tools are strong enough for her to return value far above, especially if she can clean up the weaknesses.

Matt Powers

20. Hannah Jump, Stanford

Scheme versatility is essential to a functioning WNBA offense, but most important is the ability to execute generally. With constant off-ball motion and dedicated actions, having a player you can trust to do her job is monumental. Enter Hannah Jump.

She may not be the most well-rounded in her game, with assists, rebounds, steals and blocks all below NCAA average. She has one of the lowest free throw rates I have ever seen, taking a career 68 free throws compared to 1,195 field goals. But she also hardly makes mistakes, noted by a very strong 2.5 assist to turnover ratio. Those are players you can work with.

While she plays a passive role, she is also an important play finisher. She is Stanford’s leading three point shooter in the history of the program, with 364 made threes out of 890 attempts to hit a stellar 40% efficiency. She doesn’t just shoot off the catch, though she does at an excellent 94th percentile rate, but also off the dribble. The threat of her running off of screens is compounded by having to stop her off of handoffs, in pick and roll, spotting up in transition. Her three point versatility is as important as the volume. 

As a specialist with many limitations, Hannah Jump isn’t likely to be a WNBA starter, and has an uphill battle to be a role player. But with bankable skills shooting from distance and limited mistake-making, she has a chance. For that reason, she finds herself in Swish Theory’s top 20.

Matt Powers

The post Swish Theory’s 2024 WNBA Draft Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Ahmed: Isaiah Crawford

Perhaps no draft class of the past decade has taken shape later in its cycle than 2024, and in a class defined by uncertainty it only makes sense for some of its prospects to take circuitous routes to the NBA. There may not be a player in the class who has taken a more winding road into the league than 6’6” fifth-year senior wing Isaiah Crawford. Typically there is some combination of three factors which result in a prospect exhausting their collegiate eligibility prior to joining the professional ranks. Maybe the player joined a veteran laden, high achieving team, where minutes crucial to their development are difficult to come by. The prospect in question may have been from a less heralded school where playing lower competition required a lengthier resume of production to be seriously considered a NBA caliber player. Or lastly, injuries prevent them from playing to the point where development is disrupted and they are forced to return to school.

In Crawford’s case the latter two factors are primarily responsible for his protracted NCAA career. Having suffered devastating ACL injuries in two consecutive seasons (his true sophomore and junior years), and playing the entirety of his career in Conference USA, which only recently gained a modicum of respect from FAU’s Final Four appearance this past season. While Crawford’s injury history may have him omitted from a few teams’ draft boards, the consistent production in spite of both practice and game time lost to recovery is eye-catching.

Crawford’s appeal is his protean skillset on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Crawford has spent most of the season as the primary creator in the half-court, ranking 11th in the country in isolations as a percentage of his teams possessions. However, in past years Crawford has been cast in a more of a complementary role, where he spaced the floor and gained comfort attacking closeouts as his long-range shooting became a more consistent threat (Crawford is currently 40% from 3 on 275 attempts in his career). Crawford was even deployed as a small-ball center this past year when his mobility was compromised by the recency of his knee injury.

In all these roles Crawford has not only produced, but thrived, when forced to adapt. This display of role flexibility bodes well for Crawford’s value in the league, where non-star wings are increasingly defined by their ability to meld around whatever star talent resides on their roster. Crawford will most likely not be asked to shoulder a large creation burden, but his ability to capitalize on mismatches created and attack tilted defenses, in tandem with the stellar shooting indicators (44% on 70 off-the-dribble midrange jumpers, 39.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2024), has been the recipe for numerous wings who arrived with little fanfare to carve out meaningful roles.

For as enticing as Crawford’s offense is, defense could very well be his ticket to making a NBA roster. Similar to the offense, Crawford has played a variety of roles defensively and consistently produced wherever he has been deployed, Crawford has posted stellar steal and block rates over his career (3.1% and 3.6% respectively) while simultaneously limiting fouling (only 3.3 fouls/40). The paltry foul rate to Crawford’s defensive impact numbers underscore his quick processing ability on this end of the floor. Crawford isn’t one to blindly gamble on the defensive end, instead opting for calculated risks where he utilizes the entirety of his massive wingspan to alter shots at the rim and encroach on ballhandler’s live dribbles as they attempt to create space. Despite being 6’6” I fully believe Crawford can function as a weak-side rim protector, aided by a 7’0” wingspan, and has the range necessary to complement a deep-drop big. 

All in all it is rare to find wings with as well-rounded a skillset as Crawford, and with the premium placed on the position around the league, it is my belief Crawford’s skillset warrants first round draft consideration despite the risk which comes with such a disconcerting injury history.

Avinash: DaRon Holmes II

DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the most well-rounded, dominant seasons in recent memory, and he’s getting late second round buzz. Here’s why I find that baffling.

Let’s get some things out of the way: DaRon Holmes is somewhat undersized for his position (6’10 in shoes), has middling length (7’0 WS), he is a bit old (August 2002 bday makes him ~senior aged), and he plays in a mid-major conference (although the A10 is arguably just as good as some P5 conferences). These are all valid criticisms, and should certainly be considered in ascertaining his upside. And yet, after watching DaRon for three years, I have two contentions that I will qualify below: 1) DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the greatest rim scoring seasons ever. 2) DaRon Holmes might be the most well rounded big man ever.

Starting with the first contention: from 2008 to 2023, there have been 37 instances where a player dunked 75 dunks or more. Five players have managed to do this twice: Udoka Azubuike, Tacko Fall, Obi Toppin, Chimezie Metu, and of course DaRon Holmes. Currently, DaRon is on pace to be the first player to do this 3 times! This baseline of interior dominance is important, but so is the span of his dominance. Upperclassmen are often maligned for only dominating once they reach a certain age threshold, thereby making their dominance seemingly untranslatable. Well, DaRon has been dunking to oblivion since his freshman season. His freshman season was actually a quasi-statistical doppelganger to Jalen Duren, and he was one of 7 players to dunk 80 times as a freshman (the other 6 were all lottery picks: AD, Ayton, Bagley, Obi, Drummond, and Bam. Dunks are my favorite way of ascertaining functional interior dominance: it’s the play type with the highest conversion percentage, yet it also has the highest barrier to consistent entry.

There’s so many more ways I could reiterate Holmes’ interior goodness. He’s scoring a whooping 80% at the rim on very high volume (will likely hit 200 rim attempts) and he’s getting to the line at an extremely high rate (70 FTR on the season). This combination of dunks/rim %/ FTR is virtually unmatched. For context, there have only been 3 seasons where a player has even reached 65 FTR and 80 dunks: Bam, Mason Plumlee, and Tacko Fall, with DaRon and Edey on pace to crush these numbers this year.

I’ve just spit out a cacophony of numbers to demonstrate DaRon’s interior dominance, some of which may admittedly be redundant. He also happens to be the rare disciplined rim protector, with both a strong rim protection record and foul rate reminiscent of a guard (career 7.6% block and 2.3 fouls per 50). But the main point is that DaRon doesn’t just exhibit above average interior dominance: by all accounts, he is one of the most dominant rim forces we have ever seen. There are some concerns about translatability, sure, but these are all relative. Even adjusting for length, means of winning, and conference strength, DaRon should at least be a solid bet to be a well-above-average rim force in the league.

However, it would be incredibly reductive to call DaRon an interior scoring merchant. He is also one of the best big man passers I have ever seen. He can catch the ball on the perimeter, force his way to the rim off a dribble drive and sling a one handed pass to the weak side for an open 3. He can get to a post-up and time pocket passes on the inside to cutters. He can bring the ball up the court and hit a tween as he scans the floor, and consistently leverages his rim gravity to make connective reads out of the post. This type of ball handling skill and passing acumen is quite rare for a 6’10 big, and it manifests in his 19% assist rate. Defenders truly have to pick their poison with DaRon – sit back and watch your center get absolutely cooked by DaRon inside the post en route to another dunk, or help off your man too hard and watch as DaRon wastes no time finding the open man.

I don’t really care too much about perimeter shooting numbers for prospects, but DaRon is putting up 5 3PA/100 and 37% 3P, while shooting 69% on FTs. Even if I’m not totally sold that he’s going to be a pick and pop force in his prime a la Kevin Love, this is a pretty significant data point. This year, there’s only 18 players 6’10 or taller who even meet 3 3PA/100, 35% 3P, and 65% FT. To me, this is just a testament to DaRon’s perimeter skill and fluidity, and this perimeter volume is already operating as a functional outlet for him to create advantages off closeouts.

It’s pretty clear that DaRon is an impressive passer and shooter – how many big men are able to put up 19% assist and 5 3PA/100 simultaneously? It’s a rare skill set with intuitive translatability, as it’s easy to imagine the utility of a post hub who can pick and pop or even run some delay actions from the jump. At the same time, there’s only been a couple players who have even approached DaRon’s statistical rate of interior dominance, and even fewer who can dominate the rim at both ends. 

Here’s the bottom line: there has NEVER been a prospect who approaches DaRon’s goodness at the intersection of feel, shooting, and interior scoring. One of the best statistical rim scorers also happens to be an awesome passer and bonafide shooter, all while protecting the rim at a high level? This is absolutely insane territory, and I’m running out of ways to emphasize this. Since 2008, there have only been 3 players with 50 dunks, 15% assist, and literally just 1 3PA/100: Zion, Obi, and Josh Jackson. None of them were even close to DaRon’s block rate or even 3PA/100 (Zion was the closest at 3.9 3PA/100). For reference, DaRon is on pace to pulverize these thresholds; he’s on pace for 80 dunks, 19% assist, and 5 3PA/100.

I don’t need to cook up another bart query to exemplify the extraordinary nature of this skillset. DaRon Holmes has the most fascinating skill integration for a big that I’ve ever seen, and he does it while being elite to generational in all the facets you want to see for a traditional big man. Oftentimes, when we look for unicorns among bigs, we fail to account for whether or not they are good at traditional big man things. So many scrawny bigs have failed because their movement aesthetics weren’t adequately functional to overcome their physical deficiencies. And now, we have one of the most physically dominant big men in the barttorvik.com era entering the draft, and this player also happens to be able to dribble, shoot and pass at a high level relative to position? And he’s projected to go undrafted by several outlets? By all accounts, his integration of skills in conjunction with his baseline of sheer dominance is incredibly rare and offers a tantalizing combination of high floor and untapped ceiling. This is the type of bet I want my front office making.

Roshan: Jaylon Tyson

The NBA has had a massive talent explosion in the last couple of years, where players with size are coming in more skilled than ever. One of the reasons is the proliferation of wings or bigs that can dribble, pass and shoot. In a class where this player is more of a rarity, Jaylon Tyson has a case for being underrated.

Jaylon Tyson is a 6’7” junior tasked with running the primary ballhandling duties for the California Golden Bears, lighting the Pac-12 up with impressive shotmaking, crafty ball-handling, and reactive passing. In 27 games, 35% of his offensive possessions come from being the pick-and-roll ballhandler where he’s been slicing up defenses with his good first step and leveraging his touch from all three levels of the floor. 

He’s been shooting 59% at the rim on 188 attempts (70% unassisted), 42% on 108 midrange attempts (93% unassisted), and 36% on three-point attempts (48% unassisted). If you still don’t believe he has touch, he’s also shooting 77% from the charity stripe for his career (177 attempts), 43% on floaters and hooks this year, and 45% on off-the-dribble jumpers inside the arc this year. Tyson can get to these shots in a lot of creative ways where he’s able to use change of direction, deceleration, and different stride lengths to freeze defenders or cause them to flip their hips. He’s then able to use quickness in short spaces to create space and hunt a shot.

Tyson’s handle is the vehicle for all of his crucial skills on the offensive end, as he has excellent ball control. This enables him to pick the ball up at gather points where primary and help defenders can not dig at it effectively, further lending itself to live dribble passes. 

His passing volume mostly contains single-level reads like finding the roller out of pick-and-roll or making connective passes to the next rotational player, but where he shines is how quickly he’s processing these decisions, often locating the help defense. Sometimes the speed of his deliveries can be improved but I can see a pathway to growth in this area because he has manipulated defenses at times with no-look passes. With improved hand strength, he could potentially do this with more volume off of a live dribble.

Tyson is definitely an NBA athlete, dunking 15 times in the halfcourt (3 of which came off of his drives to the rim) with good load time off of two feet. There isn’t a wingspan that I could find but I would say it ranges somewhere between +3 and +5 inches compared to his height. On the defensive end, this length and explosion allow him to stifle smaller ball-handlers. His lateral movement allows him to stay with ball handlers and then hound them with his reach, empowering his ability to create events which can be seen in his 1.7 block percentage and 2.0 steal percentage. 

His problem on the defensive end is screen navigation, where he can get caught across screens and has to recover back into the play. Most of this is him not doing his work early with technique and getting skinny, specifically taking larger lateral strides before the opposing big can get positioned with his screen. Currently, he can recover into plays using his burst and length but this will be tougher to do in the NBA with the amount of ground that has to be covered. 

I believe this issue is further amplified due to his usage on the offensive end (30% usage) which will persist less in the NBA in a scaled-down role. In the NBA, Tyson will have the chance to play off of better advantage creators, where he can capitalize on tilted defenses off-the-catch. Having to create fewer possessions at the next level, there should be an uptick in three-point efficiency, similar to his sophomore season at Texas Tech where more of his threes were assisted as he shot 40% on 107 attempts. To get even more granular, he shot 43% on catch-and-shoot shots his sophomore year. With a reduced offensive load, it will let him expend more on the defensive end and do his work early with technique.

The skills and athletic traits he has as a primary should translate well to an off-ball role in increased NBA spacing, using burst and explosion to capitalize on advantages, and incorporating his touch and creative handle to create counters when the defense recovers. 

These tantalizing skills at prototypical wing size should give the team that drafts Tyson a dynamic scoring wing with the potential to funnel ballhandlers as a defender in the NBA. That sounds like the description of a player who could end up being a starting-caliber player and will be 21.5 years old on draft night; yet, he remains outside of the top 20 on most boards and mocks throughout mainstream media. In my opinion, investing heavily in a player of that caliber is usually justified, particularly in a draft class where there’s a significant shortage of this player type.

Matt: Jonathan Mogbo

Jonathan Mogbo is one of the more unique development cases of the 21st century. Not recruited out of high school as a 6’4’’ guard, he is now 6’9’’ and a big/forward. He started at Independence Community College, transferred to junior college Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, transferred again to low-major Missouri State, and then a third time to the mid-major San Francisco. He has guided himself up the development curve, step-by-step.

And it seems to have worked. Jonathan Mogbo is not just playing well at this higher competition level, but dominating. His 10.5 Box Plus-Minus is #13 in the country. As you might guess from the growth spurt, Mogbo mixes in guard skills with that of a big. That has provided flexibility of value to San Francisco’s roster (+20 net rating when on compared to +2 when off) that would continue with another leap in competition.

Jonathan Mogbo can pass – really pass – the fulcrum of the Dons’ offense. They often run Delay with Mogbo the trigger point, providing endless handoffs and hitting cutters or shooters in stride. He assists on one of every four made buckets by his teammates, in the top 10 for assist rate among NCAA bigs.

But what really makes Mogbo stand out is his ability as a roller or cutter. Mogbo is a fantastic leaper, quick off the ground and with ridiculous hang time, coupled with an above 7-foot wingspan and large hands. His catch radius is phenomenal, but as much as that, his footwork stands out. Mogbo is capable of dropping into a roll or starting his cut from an oblique angle while simultaneously chopping his feet, preparing for any pass regardless of its accuracy. It’s through this talent that he is barely second to Zach Edey in number of dunks this season, with a shocking three per game. Not bad for a former point guard.

The limitation is the outside shooting, as Mogbo has only attempted 38 threes over his four college seasons and at a 31% make rate, but is still shooting a solid 69% from the line and 32% in midrange. That’s enough to convince me there’s some chance of Mogbo succeeding as a low-end catch and shoot three point threat. But even if not, his handle stands out as strong for a big, capable of making moves off the dribble (but not too many) to then leverage his strength to make a path to the rim where he shoots 75% (and nearly half of his rim makes self-created). He is mostly dominant inside, but there are sparks of upside outside of the restricted area. The feel of a guard is there.

Mogbo is excellent on defense, too, and also due to his guard-like agility and opportunism. He gets a steal on 3.3% of opponent possession and a block just as often, only one of nine starters in the NCAA to do so (see: Isaiah Crawford later on). His long wingspan is weaponized by lightning fast reaction time, closing off passing lanes when least expected. His mobility combined with strength allows him to defend on the perimeter and inside alike. One small slight is he can take a beat to find his positioning on the court, a significant concern for picking up NBA schemes (especially ability to play drop as sole big). This, however, is heavily mediated by his quick recovery time and aforementioned physical tools to keep him in a play. When he’s near, he’s a threat. 

Jonathan Mogbo provides a bevy of skills no one else in the 2024 draft class has in this combination. Despite being a senior, Mogbo’s adaptability to increasing competition in the middle of a growth spurt suggests continued room for improvement. With deadly weapons in the form of interior athleticism and big-man ball skills, Mogbo is a tough matchup regardless of competition. That’s why I believe he deserves to go in the top 20 of the 2024 NBA draft. Instead, he is absent from all major media mocks/boards entirely.

Josh: David Jones

Through his four seasons in college basketball, David Jones has progressively developed into one of the best wings in the country. There were flashes of future stardom in his first two years at DePaul, with him averaging 14.5 points per game as a sophomore for the Blue Demons. Jones then transferred up to St. Johns, where his numbers remained very similar to his sophomore year at DePaul. After coach Rick Pitino accepted the head coaching position at St. John’s, Jones decided to transfer up again to Memphis, where he is now on All-American watchlists while averaging a career high 21.7 points per game on 60.7% true shooting percentage.

With the Tigers, David Jones’ rate of spot-up possessions has risen substantially, and so has his efficiency in this area. Jones is currently averaging a whopping 1.24 points per possession on spot-up looks, and he is at 1.21 points per possession on spot-up drives. He is currently at 1.35 points per possession on 40 right drives and 1.06 points per possession on 35 left drives. Jones’ burst from a standstill is quite impressive, as he is able to beat closeout defenders with ease. His jab and go often leaves defenders in the dust, as the threat of his downhill speed leads to defenders often biting on his initial move. When he jabs left and goes right, he is often able to get to his pull-up, where he is able to align his shoulder with the rim to knock down the shot. He also has an incredibly pronounced pump fake, leading to many fly-bys from unsuspecting defenders. 

When Jones beats his initial defender, he is adept at weaving his way through help using a variety of different stride types. There are many possessions where he takes an elongated last step towards the rim to either get by one help defender or to split two, and these steps often open up easy finishes at the basket. While he is at the basket, Jones flashes exceptional body control, as he is able to consistently absorb contact and finish through it despite the frequent difficulty of these attempts. He pairs this body control with his explosive one foot leaping, as he is able to generate tons of vertical pop and hangtime to throw down highlight dunks if given a runway. Half court finishing will be a potential swing skill for Jones, as he is currently hovering at 51% at the rim in the halfcourt. I am a firm believer in this mark improving over time, as he consistently showcases great touch around the rim and always displays the aforementioned elite body control. 

Stepping back to his spot-up proficiency, Jones is currently shooting a blistering 47% on 79 total spot-up 3s putting him at 1.41 points per possession on these shots. Among every single player in D1 basketball, David Jones is currently scoring the fifth most points per game on spot-up possessions in the entire country despite only being 46th in total spot-up possessions. Jones has shown the ability to hit shots off of a variety of footwork patterns, movements, and is just as accurate on off-dribble jumpers. Shooting progression is almost never linear, and Jones’ development over the last couple years has been magnificent. Between his sophomore and junior seasons, Jones jumped from 69% on free throws to a strong 79%, and he currently hovers at 80% this year on nearly three times the volume. His jump as a three point shooter really kicked in this year, as he has gone from 29% as a junior to 39% as a senior. Jones has pristine mechanics on his jumper, and he is excellent at rotating his body in air to align his shot with the rim. This is part of what makes him so deadly as a pull-up shooter, as he is comfortable shooting off of a variety of dribble patterns. Jones has also showcased comfort in shooting from NBA range and even beyond, and he can convert on these deep looks both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenders have to stay honest on his drive, so any type of walk down will typically give Jones either a driving lane or enough daylight to pull-up from 3.

Another potential swing skill for Jones will be his playmaking, more specifically limiting turnovers. I personally believe that Jones is a significantly better playmaker than his current numbers would indicate, as he has shown the ability to make high level reads off of drives. Jones typically avoids telegraphing his passes, as his eye fakes and general passing deception periodically appear on tape. These positive playmaking indicators along with his processing of help defenders on drives leads me to believe in his feel for the game and processing speed, which bodes very well for his playmaking progression in the future. The main inconsistency in his playmaking has been his passing accuracy, however I think most of this is due to the difficulty of some of the reads he makes. In a scaled down role in the NBA, Jones will have the opportunity to make first and second layer reads off of drives, and I believe that he is more than capable of making nearly every pass he would be tasked with executing at this level. 

Defensively, Jones uses his elite quickness and strong instincts to jump passing lanes very frequently. His steal rate of 3.7 ranks 30th in the country among players playing at least 70% of their team’s minutes, and his ability to create deflections and transition offense opportunities absolutely pops on tape. Jones is a bit of a gambler on defense, as he looks to jump these passes very frequently. However, when Jones is out of position due to a missed jump, he is still able to swiftly get back into the play due to his change of direction capabilities. When Jones focuses on sitting down and walling off drives, he is excellent at mirroring opponents’ movements and cutting off any lanes to the basket. Jones’ body control once again shows up when he is forced to navigate screens, as he is able to absorb the contact of the screen and quickly get over them to get back into the play. Jones’ short area quickness makes him an excellent closeout defender, as he is able to execute x-outs and recover out to perimeter players much quicker than the average wing player. Finally, Jones is an excellent rebounder for a wing, as he crashes the glass to grab 2.4 offensive rebounds and 5.2 defensive rebounds per game.

Oftentimes wings with similar skill sets to Jones come in as below average defenders and in turn struggle to stick in the league despite their offensive tools. However, Jones combines his strong offensive tools with great defensive instincts and a solid feel for the game. The foundation that Jones has cannot be overlooked, and the sheer amount of translatable traits that he provides has led to me believing that he deserves to be in first round talks.  

AJ – Riley Minix

A 5th-year transfer from NAIA school Southeastern, Riley Minix has continued his dominance in his first season at the D1 level. He leads Morehead State comfortably in points, rebounds, true shooting percentage, and combined steals + blocks a game. It’s worth noting that while he’s playing at a mid-major school he’s not just padding stats on a bad team – Morehead State is currently in the 1st place in the OVC and ranks top 40 nationally (out of 362 schools) in both offensive and defensive rating with Minix leading the way on both ends. 

While Minix’s game is built around overall versatility, his primary standout skill right now is inside the arc scoring. At 6’7” with an extremely strong frame he’s one of the most dominant 2pt scorers in college basketball this season, shooting 64.8% on all twos thanks to a staggering combination of efficiency at the rim (77%, 19 dunks in 27 games) and from mid-range (50%). His ability to shoot it from three is a little more of a question as he’s shooting a fairly mediocre 33% from beyond the arc this year, but there’s other indicators that point to him being a better shooter than that. He’s shooting nearly 85% from the FT line this year, takes a solid volume of 3’s at 8.1 3PA/100 possessions, and shot 40.8% from 3pt at the NAIA level on over 550+ attempts. When you factor in this additional context, he definitely has a stronger shooting projection than this year’s raw 3pt% suggests. 

Minix is also capable of affecting a game in several different ways. His strength and size make him a high level rebounder for a forward, and he’s currently in the midst of a 9-game streak with double digits rebounds. He’s also the leader of one of the better defenses in college basketball, with Morehead State’s defense improving 8.6 points per 100 possessions when Minix is on the floor compared to off. He’s not the quickest or fastest player, but knows where to be and his combination of strength and good hands let him be effective when he is in the right position. He’s also capable as a passer, not a high level facilitator by any means but knows how to keep the ball moving and capitalize on the extra attention he gets from defenses. 

While he’s done just about everything at a high level for Morehead State, Minix still has some question marks on both ends. For as good of a scorer around the rim as he’s been this year, a lot of that production comes in ways (rim rolls, post seals, putbacks, etc.) that will be a lot harder to replicate consistently at the next level when you’re 6’7” with solid-not-great athletic tools for NBA standards. Minix will also have to deal with role translation on the defensive end as well, as playing the forward position defensively in the NBA requires a completely different skillset than playing it at the mid-major level. With his burly frame being much more equipped to defend from a set position using strength than to try to stick with guys through screens/traffic on the move, this could be a challenge for him. 

Overall, even with questions around competition level, agility, and role/skillset translation, it’s hard not to see the intrigue with Riley Minix. He checks multiple boxes we look for in NBA role players, possessing good positional size and the ability to score effectively from multiple spots on the floor while still being able to impact the game in non-scoring areas. It will no doubt be a tough jump for Minix to go from NAIA to Mid-Major CBB to NBA in a short span, but his track record of producing at a high level everywhere he goes will give him a chance to stick at any level.

The post Roundtable: 2024 NBA Draft Sleepers appeared first on Swish Theory.

Quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2024 draft cycle, Ron Holland boasts prototypical size for a NBA wing standing 6’8 (in shoes) with a 6’11 wingspan. Holland has perhaps experienced the most rapid development arc of all the lottery-level prospects, first coming onto the national scene playing for an elite high school program in Duncanville (Texas) where he starred alongside 2023 lottery pick, Anthony Black. For the majority of his high school career Holland made his bones as an energy big-man, who relentlessly crashed the glass and was an opportunistic scorer. Now playing for the
G-League’s Ignite program, Holland has expanded his game to the perimeter, sliding into a more of a combo-forward role.

The role change, combined with the massive leap in competition, have yielded predictably mixed results for Holland. Shooting a paltry 21.3% from three on a little over 3 attempts per game, along with a .72 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, Holland has had his fair share of record scratch moments where his lack of refinement as a ballhandler and shooter have been highlighted. However, Holland has balanced these growing pains with perhaps the most impressive flashes in the class, where he has parlayed his exceptional burst into persistent rim pressure which has allowed him to play-make for others. All this goes without mentioning how effective Holland has been defensively, displaying rare off-ball instincts for an 18 year old wing and a penchant for defensive playmaking (Holland is averaging 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game). The developmental trajectory Holland is already on combined with the archetypal value of a two-way wing is what lands Holland at #1 on my board.

Ahmed Jama

2. Nikola Topic, KK Mega / KK Crvena

Nikola Topic has played 16 games this season for KK Mega Soccerbet. During that time he was able to put his NBA skillset on fully display. Topic is excellent on the ball, primarily as a pick and roll ball handler, leading to 1.01 points per possessions per Synergy. His ability to attack the basket with his first step while having the ball on a string makes him exceptional. Once he gets to the rim, Topic finishes at a 65% clip. The playmaking from Topic is also a standout skill, specifically the timing of his passing on back cuts, skip passes after reading the low man, and feathery touch on lobs to rollers. Regardless of who he plays for, expect Topic to be smart with the ball and make sound passing reads.

If you got this far you’re probably asking, “why haven’t I read anything about Topic’s shooting?” That is a trickier question. The free throw numbers are there, shooting 86.5% which bodes well for his future as a shooter at the NBA level. But the release is too low to get off against NBA-level athleticism. The question may not be can he shoot it but at what volume. Last but not least is the defense. Topic has shown that he can sometimes be beat off the dribble and has been prone to foul when guarding off-ball. He can ball-watch and not rotate correctly at times.

At the end of the day, Topic deserves his spot as a top pick in this particular draft. In this league you need ballhandlers who can create advantages and capitalize: Nikola Topic can do both of those things.

Larry Golden

3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth

Every year of the modern draft, highly skilled seven-footers with shooting touch and the ability to play-make have upheld the top of the draft. With the 2024 NBA Draft, Alex Sarr is the newest addition to that group. Sarr’s coordination and mobility at 7’1” are truly remarkable and those movement skills translate to both sides of the ball, especially this season playing off the bench for the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. Sarr’s size, reach, and fluidity with larger strides give him the tools to have elite ground coverage and deter shots effectively at the rim. He also can backtrack at his size which makes him a defensive Swiss army knife, being able to protect the rim as the low man in different pick-and-roll coverages, a help-side rim protector, and even help at the nail. 

What Sarr does struggle with, however, is being able to take choppier steps which may affect him at times as he rolls or handles in traffic on offense or even create events in short areas on the defensive side of the ball. Dealing with sub-par vertical explosion, Sarr can mitigate some of those issues out of the dunker spot with his size and a quicker second jump.

Sarr has the potential to be an off-the-catch nightmare offensively, as with his combination of movement skills, touch, and size he can create mismatches consistently both in live-ball situations or into post-ups. While his handle does need work for his offensive game to actualize, Sarr’s potential as a shooter is intriguing with his touch around the rim and his high three-point volume relative to other seven-footers his age.

Roshan Potluri

4. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

The Lithuanian forward from Chicago, Matas Buzelis came into the G League season as the 7th best prospect on the RSCI list. The 6’10” forward is armed with shooting prowess and the ability to put the ball on the floor and handle it with flashes of real creativity. He may only be shooting 22.2% on 3.4 attempts this G League season but Matas has pristine shooting mechanics, fluid energy transfer, great touch, and a 43% 3-point shooting profile dating back to his senior year at Sunrise Christian. While Matas has a slender frame at the moment, he’s able to carve space off the catch by getting extremely low with his shin angles and lower leg flexibility. This enables his body to act as a lever against his defenders, leveraging this into opportunities to score with touch inside the arc or at the rim. 

Matas showcases his feel in these dribble-drive situations, often identifying where help comes from and acting on those passing opportunities. His feel also exudes itself on the defensive end where he’s great with his active and timely help whether that’s at the nail, in gaps, or even as a weakside tagger using his length to help deter an offense. He struggles a bit with closeouts as he can be upright at times on strong closeouts, battling back to recover in these possessions, but in general his lower leg flexibility allows him to mirror smaller, craftier offensive players. 

NBA teams are always looking for players with this description just due to the versatility they can provide on both sides of the ball. If Matas continues on the development path he is on, he has the makings of a truly unique dribble-pass-shoot wing that can bolster and supplement an NBA defense.

Roshan Potluri

5. Isaiah Collier, USC

Isaiah Collier was the top recruit in the country entering this college season and his sell as a prospect begins and ends with his ability to pressure the rim. Collier is a shorter guard with only one dunk on the season, but thrives beneath the rim with strength, craft and ambidextrous finishing. Collier averages over 5 layups a game while converting on 63.2% of those looks. That threat of rim pressure is the catalyst for his playmaking. Collier is excellent at spraying passes from within the teeth of the defense and creating looks for others, though his teammates’ success converting those looks has been dubious at best. 

Collier will need to shore up his turnovers, a result of over-aggressive driving, exuberant confidence and an occasionally loose handle. His jumper has been better than expected entering the year, but is far from a reliable weapon at this point in time and the defense certainly has a ways to go. Even with those limitations, Collier’s undeniable rim pressure and his incredible positional strength offer a tantalizing developmental proposition. The game is about buckets, and Collier’s ability to create them for himself and others is near the very top of this class. 

Tyler Wilson

6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham is a premier offensive talent and has been a reliable on-ball creator for Kentucky all season. The OTE alum has brought his up-tempo style to the Wildcats, and has leveraged his shiftiness and speed in downhill attacks in combination with his shooting to become a well-rounded threat on a consistent basis. Dillingham has true three-level scoring ability, with pull up range that goes well beyond the NBA three-point line, and he is also very effective coming off of screens. In the mid-range and inside, his soft touch and insanely deep floater package make him nearly unstoppable at getting a solid field goal attempt whenever he wants to. Not to be overlooked in Dillingham’s offensive skill set is his passing, which is surprisingly high level. For a player who’s floor game was questioned coming into college, Dillingham’s reads have been advanced, with adept passing out of nearly every offensive situation, from skip passes to corner on the move to the screen and roll and all in between. Equally capable of slotting in at both the point guard and off-guard positions, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is as NBA-ready as they come.

Defensively are where the concerns start to rear their ugly head. Dillingham provides more than adequate effort and generates steals at a decent rate, but at a relatively slight 6’2 and 170 pounds, his physical attributes don’t lend themselves to being a plus defender, where his athleticism is negated, and at the NBA level opposing teams will certainly exploit Dillingham’s lack of size and girth. Even with his severe defensive issues, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is so exemplary that he is a near bet to go in the lottery. Where exactly in the lottery that will be will come down to how NBA teams evaluate Dillingham’s offensive ceiling and his long-term role with their franchise, but with the talent he possesses, Dillingham is sure to make for a solid fit.

Corban Ford

7. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg

In an NBA where three point shooting and ground coverage are king, Risacher has the profile of one of the best complementary wings in the class. A highly touted prospect, Risacher struggled mightily playing in the U19 FIBA tournament that saw him slide precipitously down draft boards. Fast forward a few months and Risacher is one of the best shooters in a competitive Jeep Elite league in France. 

Spot ups, off movement, over a heavy contest, Risacher has been excellent in nearly every facet of shooting the basketball. He has great positional height and length for his position and his release point makes most shots nearly unblockable. Risacher has been an incredibly solid team defender for JL Bourg this year, and while his point-of-attack defense and screen navigation certainly need some TLC, he has proven to be a positive presence on both ends this season as an 18-year-old. He is not the creator some hoped he would be entering the season, but his success as a two-way off-ball wing is an incredibly encouraging sign for his translation to a league that is constantly searching for more players like him.

Tyler Wilson

8. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Kyle Filipowski is an intriguing skilled big man from Duke who has been rising up draft boards this cycle. Standing nearly 7 feet, Filipowski’s offensive skill set is one of tantalizing promise that is rapidly approaching consistent reality. His tremendous footwork and ability to put the ball on the floor make him a challenge to defend in the pick and roll action, a challenge that is compounded by the rapidly developing catch and shooter jumper that he has shown in pick and pops. Additionally, Filipowski is adept at making quick passing reads out of the short roll, while in straight post up situations, his soft touch and polish around the rim make him an extremely tough cover. While he may not ultimately figure as a main offensive hub, his game should slot in well as a secondary engine of efficient offense.

Defensively, Filipowski is at his best as a weak-side defender, where he brings his height to bear in an impactful way. He is very competent in a drop scheme defensively, where he moves just well enough to stay in front of the action, although he does struggle in a switch system where he simply isn’t quick enough to contain penetration from guards or faster forwards. He also struggles defending bigger and stronger post players, who are able to score at a high clip with him as the defender. Despite this, Kyle Filopowski projects as a very strong player in this year’s draft who can most certainly go high lottery, with his outside shooting and defensive versatility factoring in as possible swing skills.

Corban Ford

9. Donovan Clingan

The intrigue around Clingan as a lottery prospect starts with his ability to protect the rim. At 7’2” with a 7’7” wingspan and strong instincts as a shot blocker, Clingan has stretches where he completely shuts down the rim for opposing offenses. Where he differs from other recent rim protector prospects is his strength/frame, as he’s built more like Brook Lopez than a Chet Holmgren/Evan Mobley type. His ability to guard in space has been a little questionable this year, but it’s worth noting he’s dealt with multiple foot injuries and looked better in that department when he was healthy as a freshman.

On the offensive end Clingan isn’t the most diverse player and could stand to improve on his touch, but it’s still easy to imagine a role for him on that end in the NBA. His frame makes him an effective screen setter and he has the size and coordination to be dangerous as a roll man around the rim. He also has a basic but usable low post game and is a strong offensive rebounder, which will make it hard for teams to switch smaller defenders onto him. Between his potential as a defensive anchor and a relatively high floor offensive game, it’s easy to see why Clingan is a potential lottery pick.

AJ Carter

10. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Tyler Smith is 6’10 with a 7 foot WS, freshman aged, and can shoot the cover off the ball while also not being a defensive black hole. It really isn’t hard to see why he’s gaining traction as a lottery pick from a pure archetypal value standpoint. Tyler has had an unorthodox trajectory, as he’s spent the last two seasons playing in the Overtime Elite league. Part of what makes me so confident about Tyler is that he’s been relatively dominant in every stop of his career. In both years at OTE, Tyler averaged 20 pts per 40, as he quickly became known for being the league’s premier sharpshooter en route to being awarded Second Team All-OTE honors. He adapted quickly to the G League’s deeper 3P line, as he is currently shooting 39% from 3 on nearly 6 3s per 36 and 68% from the free throw line while averaging 12.8/5/1.4 per game. In short, he is an incredibly productive player in a pro league with an NBA ready skillset. 

What makes Tyler so unique, however, is his interior dominance: Smith averages over a dunk per game and is a true vertical threat as a roll man or cutter. How many elite NBA shooters are also able to screen and roll? Tyler also projects as a fairly instinctual secondary rim protector, able to rotate over and disrupt with his length and verticality. At the end of the day, Tyler just blends productivity and an enviable skill set in an NBA ready body. There are some concerns; his rim touch is poor and he often struggles to handle defenders inside the arc, hence why his volume/consistency on pull up 2s is quite low. Perhaps there is a cap on his feasible creation burden in the league, or maybe his precocious productivity in offball roles proxies some latent creation upside. Nonetheless, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G League Ignite prospect with an NBA ready skillset, and he can guard and play inside on BOTH sides. His game is an intuitive equilibrium amidst the ever swinging pendulum between skilled bullyball (see: the last 5 MVP winners) and small ball.

Avinash Chauhan

11. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

In a league where the highest premium is placed on having shooting available, so as to serve as a catalyst for high level offenses, Ja’kobe Walter very well could be the most potent shooter in the 2024 draft class. Walter is currently shooting a blistering 43.5% from three on a robust 11 attempts per 100 possessions. While virtually all of Walter’s attempts have been assisted up until this point (96.7%), this belies how versatile a shooter Walter has been over the course of his career prior to his arrival at Baylor, where he has been pigeon-holed into a smaller, off-ball role. Walter prior to college consistently
displayed the ability to shoot from distance on a variety of platforms, comfortable getting into his shot dribbling with either hand.

What separates Walter’s shooting from his contemporaries is how decisive he is off the catch when he inevitably receives hard close-outs. This is evidenced by Walter’s robust 38.7% free-throw rate, a rare benchmark for an off-ball spacer to reach. Walter’s sinewy frame and limited foot-speed for the position limit his effectiveness on the defensive end, and while he is somewhat able to compensate by forcing turnovers with his quick hands (2.7% steal rate), it is difficult to see Walter ever becoming an impactful player at this end of the court. Ultimately though, Walter’s combination of quick off-ball processing and versatile shooting make him an enticing complimentary bet.

Ahmed Jama

12. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Kel’el Ware is an intriguing prospect, a 7’0” big who is a fluid mover at his size. He’s a complete rolling big that dunks a ton of his lob opportunities. Ware’s game is tantalizing not just for the rolling and screening, but also his NBA-level post up game. He can finish over the top with his go-to jump hook or get to his fadeaway. Indiana trusts him on the perimeter to make passing reads and he’s shown some ability to read the floor and know when to dive cut. The skillset is there for Kel’el Ware and the concerns have turned down a bit. Let’s hope the motor continues to run hot.

Victor Wembanyama is now in the NBA, and if you’re doing things right, finding guys for your frontcourt who can compete is paramount. Ware is someone that if it all clicks could be fun to watch and impactful at the next level.

Larry Golden

13. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Despite tough competition for minutes in a loaded Kentucky guard room, Reed Sheppard has been one of the biggest draft risers in the NCAA thus far. He’s one of the best standstill shooters in the country (56% 3pt, 90% FT), makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, and is a high level defender thanks to a rare combo of elite hand-eye coordination and defensive instincts. He’s also producing at a historic level for a young prospect, trailing only Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis (both #1 overall picks) in BPM for a freshman over the last 15 years. 

While you can’t really argue against Reed being a good basketball player, most of the questions around him stem from positional fit and perceived lack of upside. At 6’3” with limited athleticism he has the measurables of an NBA PG, yet Sheppard doesn’t do much to break defenses down off the dribble and is below the standard creation threshold typically needed to play Point Guard at the next level. Whoever drafts him may have to be a little creative with their lineup/roster construction to get the most out of Reed, but there’s little doubt about his ability to impact winning when he’s on the floor.

AJ Carter

14. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Ryan Dunn is, simply, a master of mayhem. The 6’8 sophomore wing is the anchor of Virginia’s stifling defense, and he truly excels at initiating disorder on every plane of basketball geometry. The stats speak for themselves: Dunn is the first player since the legendary Thybulle to average 2 steals and 2 blocks per game, and he’s doing it with a cerebral combination of resounding athleticism and incredible defensive feel. Dunn is on pace to put up the first 10% block/4% steal season ever (?) and he leads the nation in adjusted defensive rating. By all accounts, Dunn is the most impactful defender in the nation, but it’s important to highlight just HOW he’s doing this. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, Dunn is a remarkably versatile event creator. It’s stupidly difficult to project anyone to guard all five positions, but Dunn slides on the perimeter with slower guards and has the range to rotate over as a secondary rim protector. He is genuinely the best bet to guard all 5 positions in the league in recent memory.

Dunn’s movement skills are second to none – with his collection of tomahawk dunks in the halfcourt and rapid baseline cuts on offense serving as even more evidence of his agility and lateral quickness. What makes Dunn so special, however, is his incredibly quick processing. Dunn leverages his range and length with an extraordinary level of consistency as he quickly diagnoses vulnerabilities in Virginia’s defensive infrastructure. His ability to pivot and make free safety-esque rotations to disrupt offensive flow is perhaps not the most orthodox interpretation of feel, but make no mistake: Ryan Dunn is a high feel player. This “feel” carries over on offense, where Dunn is a mistake free player. He’s posted a 1.2 assist to turnover rate, miniscule turnover rate, and despite a seemingly low assist rate, I was surprised by his willingness to make some intriguing, rapidfire reads, whether it be kickouts from inside or from the post to baseline cutters. The rest of the offense is questionable, sure: Dunn’s offensive repertoire is almost entirely off cuts and in transition, with a sprinkling of spot ups that some may be happy to glaze over. Shooting under 60% at the line and under 30% from 3 as a sophomore is certainly questionable, especially considering Dunn is quite a bit older for a sophomore (January 2003 birthday). But at the end of the day, Dunn has only played a year and a half at the college level, he has impressive tools and elite decision making to boot, and if feel is truly indicative of outlier development, then who says he can’t undergo unexpected offensive progress? Even if he’s a negligible offense player, it doesn’t hurt that he’s the best defensive prospect that I can remember.

Avinash Chauhan

The post 2024 NBA Draft: Lottery Board 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

In this piece, Swish Theory contributors look at exactly that. We reflect on our “favorite” misses, those who have taught us the most along our various hoops journeys.

Matt Powers

Jayson Tatum.

While I was much less tuned into the draft, mostly highlight scouting until 2020, I still took pride in making a quick board or a friendly wager with friends regarding prospect outcomes. Jayson Tatum has a lot that I look for in a prospect, a smart defender with skill, green flag production and a great athlete. But, reader, I did not buy the shot. The aesthetics of the Duke motion got under my skin in a way I could not explain, a two-motion release that involved often violent gathers and flaring out on release. I let this issue cloud my overall opinion of the now consensus star for the Boston Celtics, and, while I did not make an official board this season, had major concerns about him as a top 3 draft pick. If the shot doesn’t fall, I expected the rest of the game to crumble…or else was just so distracted by the aesthetics – not even that bad, but enough to trigger a massive red flag in my analysis.

That all was fixed within the first week of Summer League. A 34% shooter from deep in college, Tatum smoothed out his motion and generally has excelled as an athlete where, even if it didn’t improve, he likely would still be an All-Star anyways. But a career 38% on heavy volume (including 43% as a rookie) I never could have imagined. That all made the rest of his game, already strong, even easier, the undisputed leader for a consistent title contender at a young age. Better shooting meant lower thresholds for innovation in the rest of his game, exploring the studio space as a handler and passer to make consistent leaps in skill. That taught me a harsh lesson about the uncertainties of shooting, the dangers of aesthetics, the value of compounding flashes of skill and, well, sometimes it just happens.

A maxim I’ve developed is that with draft research, someone will always be higher or lower than you on every aspect of a player’s game. It’s not worth staking out ground as the guy who doesn’t believe in a player’s shot, or, on the other end, convinced they are guaranteed to be 40%+ from deep. Every scale is fluid and incremental, and a change in trajectory for one skill or trait has downstream impacts on every other one. In overanalyzing a single item, it’s likely you’re too narrow in your imagination. 

Josh Url

Willie Cauley-Stein.

Before the 2015 draft I was excited by the defensive potential of Willie Cauley-Stein (WCS). He seemed destined to be a switchable rim protector and lob threat at 7’0” 240 lbs with crazy athletic tools. Of all the centers in NBA Draft Combine history at the time WCS posted:

• The fastest lane agility drill time (better than the average score for pgs).
• The 2nd fastest ¾ sprint time.
• The highest max vertical reach (tied for 1st).

On top of the ELITE athleticism WCS looked defensively dominant for the 38-1 Kentucky Wildcats. An NBA executive even told me that WCS was THE best defensive prospect he had seen over his long career. Unfortunately, Willie’s NBA career did not play out as expected. 

Missing on WCS taught me two lessons: 

1. Even top 1% athleticism is not guaranteed to translate to NBA defensive dominance. Now, I prioritize decisive defensive decision-making over athletic tools. 
2. Most players do not get a bigger role in the NBA so it’s important to know if the player will embrace their NBA role. WCS said “The story on me going into this draft is that I’m an elite defender with a raw offensive game. In my head I’m thinking, how would you even know what I’m capable of offensively?” Self-belief is good but so is self-awareness.

Charlie Cummings

Jerome Robinson.

Okay, take a moment to laugh. I deserve it.

I learned two hard lessons with Jerome Robinson. First, don’t place stock in a couple of big games above the overarching body of work (in this case, his 24 points in Boston College’s upset of #1 ranked Duke and 46 points against Notre Dame). Before “that dawg in him” was on the radar, let alone criminally overused, that’s what I thought Jerome had.

I also failed to see how the athleticism would (or wouldn’t) translate. He simply did not have the physical tools to keep up defensively or create consistent rim pressure, and the perimeter scoring alone was not strong enough to keep him on the field. So a player I ranked 7^th when draft Twitter consensus had him 39^th unsurprisingly flopped. The career 4.5 PPG on a 43.9% eFG hit me like a shotgun to the chest.

Now I know to balance the good games scouted with the bad ones, and to value athletic tools as the ultimate “make or miss” aspect of a prospect profile. Thank you, Jerome, for the brutal lesson.

Dennis Janßen

LaMelo Ball.

Sounds weird, because I had LaMelo #1 on my board as of the draft, but it took me a long time and some outside influence to come around on him. Everybody remembers the Ball-led Chino Hills teams and especially the skinny, blonde-dyed haired LaMelo pulling up from halfcourt, scoring 90+ points in a high school game (including accusations of opposite coaches to ruin basketball in its entity). I had my fair share of reservations about LaMelo, including being heavily biased from the media coverage I got living overseas, which was mostly on the negative side.

Inefficient, broken shot, selfish, showboating without any hope he could guard anyone on an NBA floor was my broad takeaway from watching him in high school and the NBL and I missed the forest for the trees. What happened?

I started draft scouting with the 2020 cycle, was extremely clueless contextualizing player development and growth of youth players. What really opened my eyes in regard to LaMelo Ball was a piece about him from PD Web:

L A M E L O

The look behind the curtain revealed that LaMelo actually is an outer-worldly, instinctual basketballer that maybe just needs some further polish in his game. Like PD said, “All Ball all the time has not really allowed for jumper surgery, the similarities from when I first saw Melo in middle school to Chino to overseas to now are striking.” His youth career was unique in a sense of really pushing his feel and decision-making development, whilst not establishing the typical “old school” baseline of things like a constant defensive motor or visually appealing jumper. Melo is a unique prospect that required a different look at his tape I wasn’t able to have at the time. It didn’t take long for him to really beat off most of my concerns about his shot and overall efficiency, whilst being one of the most promising young ball handlers of the league.

Oscar

Sharife Cooper.

In my time as a draft scout, I’ve encountered few prospects as tempting to proclaim support for as Sharife Cooper. Coming out of Auburn, Rife presented the perfect storm of factors that made his hill one worth dying on: a wildly exciting player with several exceptionally rare traits and statistical indicators, plus with a crowd of bad faith detractors pointing to a 12 game college 3pt shooting sample as evidence of his bust potential. 

Sharife’s combination of handling ingenuity, virtuosic passing acumen and advanced finishing toolbox fueled my belief that he could be the exception to the rule for small guards making the leap to the league. His stint at Auburn was statistically unprecedented in a variety of ways: his free throw rate (.560, more than 10 FTs/40 mins), assist rate (52%!), and touch indicators (83% from the line, consistent pinpoint accuracy as a high volume lob thrower) were all gargantuan green flags for an offensive engine prospect. Many evaluators were scared off by Cooper’s poor 3pt shooting at Auburn (13/57 for a ghastly 23% mark), but I never saw this as a big issue considering his solid pre-college shooting track record and career-long proficiency from the line. Indeed, Cooper has shot a rock solid 137/379 (36%) from deep on about 7 attempts/100 possessions in his 76 G-League games to date, a mark that many of his doubters swore he would never reach only 2 years ago.

The more legitimate critique of Cooper’s game to me was always whether he could overcome the razor-thin margin for error that small guards get as inside-the-arc scorers and defenders. Two years into his NBA career, it seems like the answer to this question is a no (though I’m holding out hope that he’ll flourish in bench minutes if given the chance!).  

Ultimately, my mistake was zeroing in on what most people pointed to as Sharife’s weakest skill: his touch is good, it was always good, and any evaluator using a holistic shooting projection would have told you so at the time of the draft. But I was too quick to earmark Cooper as a lottery lock simply because I didn’t buy the primary argument of the scouts who were fading him. This is a fairly intuitive thought process: everyone seems to agree that Player X’s swing skill is shooting, I have no doubt that this player will shoot, therefore I must be higher on him than the public and should move him up my board. This is one of the pitfalls of allowing the shadow of consensus to creep into personal evaluation: perhaps if I wasn’t so familiar with Cooper’s prospect narrative as an alleged non-shooter, I would’ve examined the other potential pitfalls in his skillset with a closer eye. 

Nick

Tyrese Haliburton.

As someone who was young and just getting into scouting at the time, Haliburton slipped past my mind as a real guy in his 2020 NBA Draft Class and I believe this miss ultimately made me a better evaluator in the long run. I had major reservations with Haliburton compared to people who had him top 10 or even top 5 in that draft class. This was also the most chaotic draft cycle with the pandemic limiting games and delaying the draft until November, and also there being nearly no consensus within draft twitter. With there being no consensus as far as rankings for this draft cycle, you really had to know your stuff and if you saw a guy you really believed in, there was pretty much free reign to move him up where ever you saw fit. 

When the people that knew their stuff saw Haliburton, they saw the elite advanced stats, high feel and IQ, plus a great 3PT shooter and passer. When I saw Haliburton it was the weird jumpshot, average handle and below average ability to get to the rim that concerned me. My thinking at the time was in his best outcome, Haliburton would be a player similar to Lonzo Ball. Elite role player, good 3PT shooter and passer, great IQ but those flaws would hinder him from becoming anything above that and boy was I wrong: I knew I underrated him from just watching him his rookie year.

Some key attributes I missed on that led him to being better than I anticipated was his shot versatility and him being a 41% 3PT shooter off the bat in his rookie year. I thought he would at least need some type of adjustment with his slow load up type and having somewhat of a set shot but nope. And he was also able to get those threes off in a variety of ways that clearly showed he could handle more of an offensive load than I projected. Another key trait of Haliburton’s that I slept on was his ability to be a true point guard. While I thought he was a PG before, I projected him to be more of an off-ball PG where he would be best with a jumbo creator. Tyrese instantly showed he can handle the ball effectively and had a great deal of passing versatility that let him be more of a real creator than I anticipated. 

By missing on Haliburton: I learned to trust funky jumpshots if the touch was clearly there and if they got their shots off in a variety of ways; I learned to ease up on the comps because they can limit your view of the prospect and lead you thinking one way when you should’ve been thinking the other way; and also just to trust the feel and IQ every time. This last part helped me in the next draft class to believe in Josh Giddey and Franz Wagner, when you combine superb mental reading/understanding of the game with great skill, you get special players, simply put. 

Emiliano

Robert Woodard II.

Even though I hung out in Draft Twitter circles since 2018, the 2020 Draft was probably the first one I followed very closely.

In that class, there was a guy I had relatively high on my board (early 20s) compared to the main stream and I was pretty convinced he would have become a decent NBA player. That player was Robert Woodard II.

Standing at 6’7, with a 7’1.5 wingspan, a bulky frame and a shiny 42.9% from three he was a catchy prospect for a relatively inexperienced viewer that was trying to build and affirm his own thinking. In hindsight, that really was a youthful mistake. Woodard had interesting skills and traits but he was more of a solid 2nd round bet than a sure first rounder.

I didn’t see (or I pretended I didn’t see?) some red flags and the overall process was chaotic. I learned some meaningful lesson from that misevaluation:

Archetype isn’t everything

At the time I let the “3&D wing” label single-handedly convince me that he was “NBA ready” and deserved greater attentions.

Archetypes are easy to identify but actual skills and their level are what matters.

Don’t rely on small samples

The 42.9% from three was a really appealing component of Woodard’s profile. However, he attempted only 70 threes in his sophomore season at Mississippi State. This sample wasn’t reliable, nor was it even indicative.

Indeed, he never really find his shot at the next level: he made just the 30.4% of his threes in G League through 3 seasons (116/381, considering Regular Season and Showcase)

Scoring talent matters

In hindsight, it’s hard to find good NBA 3&Ds that were strictly low usage 3&Ds at the college level. Generally it seems easier for players with a decent offensive talent to scale down to reduced roles where they can excel. Woodard had some indicators of a certain lack of scoring talent, but his low usage (18.2%), poor free throw shooting (61.7% college career) and obvious lack of shooting volume were red flags I missed.

@BeyondTheRK 

Mo Bamba.

What ultimately separated the two unicorns of the 2018 NBA Draft were the little things that are hard to catch without watching the film. One player showed ball skills, control, instincts, traits that could realistically develop a talented prospect into a primary versatile scorer and defensive anchor rather than merely a secondary rim-rolling pick-and-pop play-finisher.

The first player flashed nearly every fundamental skill in the book: ambidextrous baby hook soft touch finishing at the rim; ISO dribble moves on the perimeter; pristine post-up footwork; deep shooting range with a unique shot release that made pull-up threes an option for a fringe seven-footer; the awareness to rotate, switch, and protect the rim on a whim. Maybe most importantly, he looked like he gave a sh*t hustling out there on both ends.

The second player impressed with improbable shooting touch for his size, rebounding well and swatting endless shots in help defense, before decompressing when it came to effort plays like setting screens, hard rim-rolls, or simply sprinting down the floor.

For these two prospects, the measurables and defensive stats left evaluators seeing similarly positive signs on paper pointing to similar signs of success:

Heights of 6’11” and 7’
Wingspans of 7’5” and 7’9”

Neither big man prospect was a strong post-up defender against bigger opposition on the block., yet Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mo Bamba finished 1st and 2nd in BLK%, DBPM, and overall BPM, while helping their collegiate teams rank Top-15 in defensive rating.

Jaren: 14.2 BLK% | 5.9 Stocks | .414 3PAr | 39.6 3pt% — 64.7 TS% — 79.7 FT%
Bamba: 13.0 BLK% | 5.2 Stocks | .189 3PAr | 27.5 3pt% — 59.3 TS% — 68.1 FT%

Mo Bamba ranked 7th in PIPM (+7.24) among all college players measured in 2017-18 and 2018-19, rating just behind Mikal Bridges (5th, +7.57) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (6th, +7.54), via Jacob Goldstein’s Player Impact Plus Minus metric.

Jaren’s main statistical profile advantages were shown in efficiency.

On top of averaging more STL+BLK (5.9) than every top big prospect in his 2018 NBA Draft class (Bamba, Carter, Ayton, Bagley), JJJ scored as efficiently across the board (65% TS%), shooting as well or better on three-point volume (.414 3PAr) and efficiency from beyond the arc (39.6% 3P%) and at the pinstripe. (79.7% FT%)

A historically impressive shot-blocker was also the best 3PT and FT shooter in his class, revealing clean postup footwork, soft finishing touch, developable ball-skills, and effective awareness to know where to be to do the little things asked of a big. While feel for the game can’t be measured, it felt like JJJ’’s feel was off the charts.

My Final 2018 Orlando Magic centric Big Board (drafting with that team in mind)

1. Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Mo Bamba
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
6. Mikal Bridges
7. Trae Young
8. Wendell Carter Jr.
9. Michael Porter Jr.

Ranking Jaren 2nd overall in a tier with Luka atop my big board feels like my best draft hit ever, yet one of my worst draft misses comes soon after with Bamba at 4th and Ayton at 3rd over a star-studded lottery.

While Ayton’s offensive game creates midrange mismatches and his defensive rotational effort improves when motivated, letting consensus bias win out in my thought process over the more tantalizing high-potential two-way wing and perimeter playmakers is another misevalutation here by me: A month or so before the draft, I rankted Mikal Bridges 4th, Michael Porter Jr. 5th, Mo Bamba 6th, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8th.

By the time draft night rolled around, I talked myself into Bamba’s best case 3&D anchor upside over tall dynamic two-way wings Bridges’s and Porter’s instinctual versatile big wing defense, tough shot making, and outside shooting, also leaving all-star scoring creator guards Shai and Trae behind Mo as well. My Final Magic Big Board bumped Bamba up to 4th (bad) and Shai up to 5th (good), moving down Bridges to 6th (bad) and Porter to 9th (bad, partly due to back concerns).

In defense of Bamba, this Orlando Magic team was never invested in him as a starter, removing majority of opportunity for playing with starting-caliber playmakers; Mo did not log one minute on the floor with the young core of Fultz, Gordon, and Isaac. Touches were sparse as long as the offense ran through the high-usage post-up hub in Nikola Vucevic; on the other hand, any playing time Mo received tended to go to other bigs who brought more energy running the floor like Khem Birch and Mo Wagner.

I have had more glaring draft misses, as I too am waiting on the Sharife Cooper league takeover tour. I was unimpressed by the safe choice of Cole Anthony over prospects I viewed with higher ceilings, tweeted loudly about Maxey, Bane, and Poku next to Fultz and Isaac on draft night.

Drafting the wrong prospect at the top of any draft could set a team back for years; doing so in a class as historically talented as 2018 could be extremely detrimental. While 2018 remains my favorite draft class to have scouted to this day, this slight, late-process change of opinion moving a prospect up the board too late in the game based on “what-if” potential could have major consequences to a team-building process. Orlando seemingly could have moved out of their 6th pick draft slot in 2018, but rumors say they were just as excited as I was about the possibility of selecting Bamba in hopes of him reaching his ceiling as “Gobert with a three point shot”.

Mo Bamba leaves Orlando ranked 1st All-Time in BLK% (6.8%); 6th All-Time in Blocks (364); 13th All-Time in Rebounds (1,556); 37th All-Time in Points (2,037). A seven-foot play-finishing plus-rebounding help-side shot-blocking three point floor-stretcher should have a long career if offered a defined role in this league, in theory. Can Mo Bamba find a playmaker to fully unlock his game, the Chris Paul to his Deandre Jordan? The James Harden to his Ryan Anderson/Serge Ibaka?

Bamba’s Career-High 32 PTS arrived in Philadelphia against his current team, the 76ers, after dropping 5 3PM & 3 BLK in the second quarter. Could Mo still fill a shot-swatting pick-and-pop role similar to Myles Turner in the right situation?

Evidence exists for Mo to succeed in a baseline 3&D role; it’s the little things in and out of his control like effort, consistency, fit, team investment and opportunity that must align. Not living up to some hypothetical potential ceiling doesn’t mean a prospect can’t succeed as the player they end up being as long as they compete, develop, and learn winning habits to carve out a lengthy career. While Bamba’s path to “Gobert with a three point shot” grows narrower by the day, there’s hope he can stick around this league for awhile longer with the right role.

Until then, kids, please stand for the national anthem.

The post ROUNDTABLE: My Favorite NBA Draft Miss appeared first on Swish Theory.

This piece is for Remembering Some Guys, players who shaped our interest in the sport. Players here spark possibilities, whether through unrealistic pathways or unusual playing styles. Sometimes it’s important to sit back and cherish.

Emiliano – Jonathon Simmons

A barber impacted my vision of basketball.

It sounds weird, right?

Jonathon Simmons‘ story is an example of perseverance. After a vagabond collegiate career ended with Houston, being talented in haircutting, he considered attending barber school and getting a barber license. But he gave basketball a last shot and paid the $150 fee to attend the Austin Toros’ local tryout. He shined among the 60 participants and from there started the rise that brought him onto an NBA court after two seasons in the then D-League.

There’s a particular Regular Season game that stuck with me and made me realize how great his journey was: the Spurs win at the Oracle Arena on the 2016-17 opening night. Simmons had 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists and put his explosiveness on full display. I vividly remember his LeBron-esque chase-down block on Stephen Curry in transition and the poster on JaVale McGee with 5 seconds left, his autograph on the game. He clearly was never a prodigious player but he was a spark of energy and athleticism for an aging team like those Spurs.

Jonathon Simmons was probably the first player that made me realize the game isn’t just about the brighter stars, he made me appreciate the G League, its stories of success, and the guys that are trying to overcome difficulties and beat the odds. The NBA and sports in general (especially in the past) have accustomed us to a superheroic narration of players but even a barber can change things.

Charlie Cummings – Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf

The artist formerly known as Chris Jackson is a trendsetter across multiple sports, and you may have never even heard of him.

His on-the-floor impact was secondary to his off-the-floor exploits. After beginning his career in the NBA, Jackson converted to Islam and changed his name to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf a la Lew Alcindor/Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. This was the first big public step he made in a profoundly impactful life outside of just playing basketball.

Abdul-Rauf was the first player in the NBA to protest the National Anthem, refusing to participate in what he believed was oppressive behavior and choosing to instead recite an Islamic prayer during the anthem. For his courage, the NBA fined and suspended him, and effectively blackmailed him into stopping this very peaceful protest. It’s a conveniently forgotten instance of the league, which now openly embraces such protests, putting down a man for what he believed in. Considering what we know now, was he so wrong to say he felt oppressed just by the sight of the United States flag?

His public stances earned him nothing but ire from the public. Not only did his employer actively disagree and try to shut him down, but local radio jockeys in Denver went into a mosque and blared the Star-Spangled Banner (trash song, does not bang) as a retort to Mahmoud. After his career ended, MAR moved back to his home in Mississippi. After a time, his home was burned down in what was ruled an arson. Though suspects were not formally charged, KKK graffiti painted on the house previous to the burning strongly points to a culprit. In a stunning turn of events, the Mississippi police did not prosecute themselves in favor of a Black Islamic man. Yet he never relented in his convictions. Very few people would refuse to fold in the face of such danger and criticism, but Mahmoud did.

Though certainly not a footnote, Abdul-Rauf also openly struggled with Tourette’s Syndrome. Not only did he take his diagnosis in stride, he said it empowered him to be better. A truly inspirational human being in every sense of the word.

On the floor, the man was flat-out dynamic. For a time he was one of the most electric offensive players in the league, with blinding speed and a lethal pull-up jumper. Proto-Steph Curry comparisons have been drawn, and they are reasonable when you see the hell he put Michael Jordan through (yes, that Michael Jordan) trying to keep pace:

If Mahmoud had played in an era of increased offensive spacing and encouragement to shoot from deep, who knows how high his star would have risen? But regardless of hypotheticals, in this house, we acknowledge Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf as one of the most important players of all time.

Now, go watch Stand.

Corban Ford – Monta Ellis

Just over a decade ago, on the afternoon of December 29th, 2012, one man stood in front of assembled cameras pre-game, and not only boldly compared himself favorably to an arguable top-5 shooting guard of all time, but then cemented his comments by informing the captive media audience that, aside from a few little championship rings and a couple of scoring titles, it was really he who “have it all”.

Folks made fun of that line almost the minute it left that player’s mouth, and it only got worse late that year in the playoffs, when his Milwaukee Bucks were swept with ruthless efficiency by the Miami Heat, behind Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, (that shooting guard that sparked the comparison in the first place) and Chris Bosh. Suffice it to say it didn’t age well. Say “have it all” to a person who knows NBA history and they will probably offer a chuckle. Say it to me and I will know you mean the great Monta Ellis without a moment’s hesitation. And I won’t think it’s a laughing matter.

Sure, the lack of all-star appearances and championships don’t look super great in retrospect, and sure, maybe he was more a “top 10 shooting guard of the 2010s” than he was “top 10 shooting guard ever”, but Monta Ellis to me epitomized what it means to play basketball your style and lay it all out there, warts and all, unapologetically (setting the stage for my Russell Westbrook love later), while also being confident enough (and maybe even slightly delusional enough) to strut your stuff and put your game right up against anyone’s.

With that being said, Ellis was no scrub. The man has career averages of 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists over nearly 850 games. He was a key component of the 2007 “We Believe” Warriors squad, he had a fun season suited up alongside Brandon Jennings with the Milwaukee Bucks, and he also had some memorable years assuming the primary scoring option responsibility alongside an aging Dirk Nowitzki on some fun Dallas Mavericks units in 2014 and 2015. He was electric in transition, could get hot from mid-range (and occasionally from deep), and did just enough playmaking that you could run him at the point and not feel horrible about your offense’s prospects.

Yes, Ellis wasn’t the best shooter from long range (career 31% from three). Defense was…well let’s just say it was a word Ellis knew, and he lost his fastball very quickly once he left Dallas as his nuclear athleticism faded. Also no, he was in fact no Dwyane Wade, not in 2012 or in the years following. He doesn’t have a hall of fame resume, and it’s easy to down his efficiency numbers and lack of playoff success. I don’t care. Ellis showed me that basketball can be played in a different way than the consensus might suggest, and that is fine. This wonderful game is big enough for all styles to fit in. And yes, in my opinion, Monta really did have it all. And that, my friends, is good enough for me.

@BeyondTheRK – Mickael Pietrus

Who is the greatest role player in Orlando Magic history?

Guarding Kobe Bryant in the NBA Finals after singlehandedly outscoring LeBron’s Cavs’ bench 83-66 for an entire playoff series, Mickael Pietrus was the ideal role player for that 2009 Orlando Magic team, solidifying D&3 on the wing coveted by Head Coach Stan Van Gundy and General Manager Otis Smith around the unstoppable Hedo Turkoglu – Dwight Howard pick and roll with Richard Lewis lurking beyond the arc and Jameer Nelson getting his buckets in between.

Pietrus’s profound perimeter defense, high-volume three-point floor spacing, and dynamic rim-attacking dribble drive dunking ability brought clean balance to the two-way force of the rotation.


Mickael offered strong, smart wing defense with length, quickness, and timing to help him guard any position 1-3 and even some small fours, the ability to knock down an open three on the other end, and enough handle to create a little wiggle room on his own.

Air France showed up on the biggest stage.

Against Kobe’s Lakers in the NBA Finals, Pietrus guarded Bryant tight, making the game slightly tougher than normal, contesting tough jumper after tough jumper.

When the Magic beat the Lakers in Game 3, Mickael Pietrus combined with Rafer Alston, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Dwight Howard to score 78 PTS on 63% FG%, setting the NBA Finals FG% record at the time for a half as a team (75% FG%) in Orlando’s first individual NBA Finals game victory in the team’s franchise history.

Against LeBron’s Cavs, Pietrus outscored the entire Cleveland bench himself over an entire playoff series 83-66! Over those six games, Mickael launched six threes a game, posted a super efficient 51-47-75 shooting line, finished paint-and-spray kickout good ball movement opportunities off Dwight post-ups and Hedo/Rafer drive and kicks in pick and roll, specializing on the three balls, corner pocket.

Pietrus quickly won over Magic fans by making life difficult for the opposing team’s best players, throwing down high-flying highlight jams while contesting Kobe in the Finals and splashing in threes against Paul Pierce’s Celtics and LeBron James’ Cavs for epic photo opportunities on Orlando’s route to the Finals, featuring my phone background for most of high school:

A rookie 11th pick drafted to fill an immediate role, Courtney Lee won the starting 2-guard job during that 2009 Finals run, bringing good feel, coachability, and fundamentally sound two-way team-first play, someone who could pick up opposing guards and hit catch and shoot threes.

Yet, Mickael remained a more dynamic option off the bench; the 26-year-old was closer to his athletic prime, flashing more north-south burst and vertical leaping ability, while still stretching the floor from deep and offering similarly sound defense against the other team’s best perimeter player.

In the 2008-09 regular season, Lee played 25.2 minutes per game (MPG) over 77 games, starting 42 of them; Pietrus played 24.6 MPG over 54 games, starting 25 of them.

Lee shot 40% 3P% on 2.6 3PA, Pietrus knocked down 36% 3P% on 4.1 3PA.

Both shot around 47.5% on 2s and scored around 9 points per game while defending the other team’s best guard or wing with positional versatility as two 6’6” wings who impact the game with top-notch defense first, catch-and-shoot threes second, and attacking closeouts third.

In the playoffs that year, the rookie Lee played 26.2 minutes per game, starting 16 of 21 outings, yet shot only 27% 3P% on 2 3PA, while the 6th-year player Pietrus averaged 25.8 minutes, starting 0 of 24 contests, and hit a blazing 38% 3P% on 4 3PA.

Air France embodied the heart of this Magic team, filling a role an inexperienced squad needed at the time. Pietrus wins fans over at every stop with his exciting NBA Jam style of play.

Consistent energy, dynamic athleticism, two-way impact with shooting confidence, and feathery floor-spacing touch is exciting at every level of basketball.

Spending the first five seasons of his career in Golden State, Mickael played a part in another special one-year flash-in-the-pan run in NBA history.

In 2005-06, the Dallas Mavericks made the NBA Finals, a team led by Dirk Nowitzki that lost to D Wade’s Heat. In the 2006-07 playoffs the following year, that Mavs team earned the #1 seed in the regular season, yet ended up being knocked out in the first round, becoming the third #1 seed ever to lose to an #8 seed in a playoff series.

The “We Believe” Warriors earned their name off the two-way toughness and thrilling up-and-down play of Baron Davis, Monte Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Andris Biedrins and Al Harrington leading a Golden State team to the playoffs and becoming the third eighth-seed in NBA history to eliminate a first-seed in the playoffs, following the Denver Nuggets in 1994 and the New York Knicks in 1999.

These late 2000 Magic teams featured four former We Believe Warriors: Adonal Foyle, Jason Richardson, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus

In an always riveting game of “name some guys”, there are tons of fun options for the greatest Orlando Magic role player.

Rafer Alston showed up in the right place at the right time, filling in for an injured Jameer while unlocking even more playmaking, defense and three-point shooting for a team that couldn’t have enough of it around one of those dominant inside forces game of basketball has ever seen in prime Dwight with the ace up the sleeve of an unstoppable halfcourt set when Hedo and Dwight would run the two-man game.

JJ Redick, Ryan Anderson, J Rich, and Q Rich all brought fan-favorite floor-spacers, with The Polish Hammer Marcin Gortat going from the best backup big in the league to a high-paid rim-rolling starter. Bo Outlaw, Darrell Armstrong, Pat Garrity, and 3D Dennis Scott are some early fan favorites.

There’s just something about the swaggering confidence that Air France plays with, his dynamic ability to look like he belongs on that court with any star at any time because he could affect the opposing star defensively, stretch the floor for his team from deep, and create his own shot when needed by attacking closeouts with the dribble drive vertical attack dunking at the rim and soft touch on short-range pull-ups.

Mickael Pietrus is a fan favorite at every stop because he does the little things that fans appreciate: hustle, heart, dunks, and threes; exciting two-way play that helps his team on both ends.

Lucas Kaplan – Vince Carter

When the Toronto Raptors finally, rightfully, welcomed Vince Carter back after a decade of animus in 2014, it was a true watershed moment for NBA sentimentalists, the kind an ever-algorithmed league is now less capable of producing. It was fantastic. It also slightly annoyed 14-year-old Lucas.

I was already, frequently, the lone Nets fan amid a sea of blue and orange. I grew up and went to school within walking distance of MSG, but my father, for various reasons, had abandoned his lifelong Knicks fandom by then. I was a free agent, and the New Jersey Nets were also on local television.

As best I can tell, the current mainstream narrative of Vince Carter’s career tends to emphasize his burst onto the scene in Toronto – the dunk contest! – and his career eventually unfolding across an NBA eon, his 22 seasons the most ever. But what happened in between? Well, he was a Net, and a great one at that, a 24/6/5 guy who rose to 26/7/6 in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, there’s no reason to reflect on Carter’s Nets career all that much. Yes, the epic posterization of Alonzo Mourning, who VC punched as often as the sun rises, lives on. But those Jersey teams are justly remembered* for their back-to-back early 2000s Finals runs that came prior to Carter’s arrival. Nothing all that memorable happened with VC as a Net – they won a couple of playoff series with a shallow roster in a weak-but-not-weak-enough Eastern Conference.

*as much as New Jersey Nets teams can be remembered

So I, only a Nets fan because Vince Carter was on local television hitting long-range bombs and dunking on people in 2006, as opposed to whatever Eddy Curry and the Knicks were doing at the same time, was just a tad bit dismayed when the Raptors honored him. Carter was my hero. If Raptors fans didn’t appreciate him, and the Nets would always be Jason Kidd’s franchise thanks to an era I was too young for, then Vinsanity would only be truly special for me.

Obviously, much has happened over the last 15 years. I am no longer eight years old. Besides playing it, my relationship with basketball has been more recently been influenced by the talent boom of the pace-and-space era that really got me into loving hoop – like, wanting to know how teams could defend a pick-and-roll – that culminated with those 2016 Finals, a collective point of demarcation.

Part of me is hesitant to revisit those Carter years that began it all. I don’t want to acknowledge the ceiling-defining limitations of his game, a handle just a bit too sloppy, decision-making just a hair too slow. I don’t want to remind myself how putrid those Nets rosters were outside of Kidd, Carter, and Richard Jefferson, my first Big Three. 

And then I remember that being right doesn’t matter, especially in basketball, a concept my eight or 14-year-old self, who were both sure Vince Carter was simply the best, would scoff at. It’s a concept I still have to remind myself of, and VC helps me do that. There is inextricable beauty in the way New Jersey Vince combined athleticism and hand-eye coordination, the way he floated through the air and tossed up finger-rolls and hook shots from a bygone era. In his best moments, Carter looked like a Monstar that had perfected basketball; they looked simultaneously impossible and effortless.

Deeeep threes and clutch moments, of which there were many, are what I will most remember from Carter’s time as a Net. And he often combined those two traits, especially when facing his former team in Toronto, where he was the most hated player of any NBA fanbase, ever; until LeBron’s Decision:

The most hated man in the NBA going back to enemy territory and doing that! Could you imagine the years of content-baiting and endless discussions centered around those moments if a star did that today?! Perhaps the truly seasoned NBA fans will remember those killshots like the back of their hand, but to me, it feels like they’re on the verge of getting lost in history. I can’t let that happen. For the first time in a long time, I realize that Vince Carter the New Jersey Net was special, and not just to me.

The players who made you fall in love with basketball will always matter, and it’s honorable to preserve their legacies. Why else do we invest all this time and energy? Just don’t tell us what made them the best. Tell us what made them special.

Corey Rausch – Rasheed Wallace

Rasheed Wallace was ahead of his time. Not just because he embodied personality and gave us the ubiquitous “Ball Don’t Lie.” The floor spacing big man was something that the league was not truly ready for. When someone like Dirk Nowitzki, an obvious contemporary, went to the outside he was incorrectly labeled as soft. No one would dare say something similar about Sheed.

From 2001-2009, Wallace attempted 3.9 triples per game and shot 34.8 percent. While that is certainly paltry by today’s standards, it was revolutionary at the time. Even better, once he arrived in Detroit, it was his unique game that springboarded the team into the title they would win that season. Yes, they had Chauncey Billups’ shotmaking, Ben Wallace generational defense, and Tayshaun Prince all-time block. But Sheed was the final piece. He could play elite defense but still fit next to Wallace on the offensive end.

After he arrived in Detroit the Pistons posted the best defensive rating in the league by more than seven full points per 100 possessions. It was unfair. But everything about Rasheed Wallace was. He had to give a little of it back with all of the technicals he earned (317, third most of all time). Somehow though, you could never be mad at him for it.

Wallace changed the vision of what a star could be for me. It did not have to be scoring, though he was more than capable. He was a stout defender, a strong rebounder, and a valued teammate. But the numbers rarely mattered. He was there to pick his spots, hold others accountable, and win. The team posted a 289-147 (66.3 winning percentage). Every time a big shoots from behind the arc, “SHEEEEEED” still rings out in my head.

Josh Url – Muggsy Bogues

I was the short kid until my sophomore year. While I literally looked up at most people I didn’t really “look up” to many. Except for Muggsy Bogues

Muggsy Bogues was the shortest player in NBA history at just 5’3” yet he played for 14 seasons!

He is the reason I love passing and defense. He is the reason I think the highly unlikely is not impossible. He is the reason I love basketball.

Matt Powers – Jamaal Tinsley

While basketball has been a lifelong passion of mine, that has not always included the NBA. But a few players along the way had an impact that exceeded that of the sport. Despite being already mostly forgotten as a zero-time All-Star without a ring, perhaps no player has been more meaningful to me than Jamaal Tinsley.

The creative side of basketball has its champions like Magic and Nash, but I am convinced Tinsley has as good of a passing vision as any. At only a listed (and unlikely) 6’3’’ and lacking a consistent outside shot (career 30% from three, less than 1 per game), Tinsley was able to start 400 games at point guard for mostly successful teams. He compensated for his limitations not just with creativity, but weaponized creativity. He combined table-setting with advantage-seeking like no one I’d seen before, particularly thriving in the chaos of transition or on broken plays.

Tinsley seemed capable of anything, putting up mega stat lines like a 12-point, 15 assist, 9 rebound, 6 steal, 5 block game and a 19 point, 23 assist, 11 rebound, and 5 turnover game in his first month as a rookie. I was hooked. The possibility of this single player, unimpressive in stature but able to access any angle to get past the giants, meant I no longer knew the limits of what was possible on the court. I treasure the uniqueness of personality expression on the basketball court, with every player ultimately also expressing themselves within the artistry of the game. Tinsley made sure I never forget that.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Remembering Some NBA Guys appeared first on Swish Theory.

Swish is here to help you, as we asked our contributors who impressed: who showed you something new, whether new moves or new tactics, new shooting form…what have you. We filtered through the mirages to find the tangible, items that just might remain relevant come regular season start.

Without further ado, here are Swish Theory’s Summer League 2023 takeaways.

Matt Powers – Shaedon Sharpe showed advanced feel for manipulation 

Pick and roll play is not a staple of Sharpe’s game, at least not up to this point, but Summer League was potentially an inflection point. Sharpe accumulated 36 pick and rolls in his four games, his nine per game five times higher than his rookie season. 

It was not simply the usage, however, but also the execution. Sharpe will still not be mistaken for a Nash-ian playmaker, at only 2.5 assists per game in Summer League after only 1.2 as a rookie, but advanced understanding of how to set up screens to deploy his own scoring speaks to his star upside regardless.

In the below Summer League clips we see Shaedon:

1. Wait to start his dribble until screen set, initiate with hang dribble then in-and-out to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
2. Jab to set up screen, hesi to set up re-screen, reject to attack Kai Jones as rim protector
3. Cross between the legs into using screen, gets skinny to reset into pull-up in one motion
4. Set up hand-off to then re-establish more favorable screen, wide open three

This variety of screen usage masks Sharpe’s intention between drive and pull-up, and when his and his screener’s defenders have to lock in more intently at the point of screen, Shaedon has the potential to draw in additional help with his supreme scoring gravity.

Sharpe’s assist rate skyrocketed from nearly non-existent to typical of a young scoring guard when Dame sat last year. Should he get even more leeway to create in the backcourt, Sharpe could continue to chain combos to become not just a deadly scorer but overall playmaker.

Lucas Kaplan – Leonard Miller willing to use size to his advantage

Leonard Miller might have the most interesting development path from the 2023 class to me. There is an idea, to which I’ve heard arguments both for and against, that he has outlier movement skills and a ceiling far more enticing, due to that trait, than a second-round draft slot would suggest.

I’m not here to debate just how special his fluidity is at 6’11 and 19 years old. No matter where you fall on Miller, though, that’s part of the sell. Our very own Avinash Chauhan wrote an excellent, pre-draft piece on the young Canadian and why we could be looking at a steal of the draft should he fall outside the lottery (which he did). One point made there was that an athlete this adaptable, this unique, should not be limited by factors of role projection – in other words, we shouldn’t force the limits of our own imagination on him.

Regardless, I’ll be fascinated to see if the processing ever fully unlocks Miller’s potential on both ends, a conundrum that was on full display in Las Vegas. Imagine Miller playing ‘Monkey in the Middle’, for example – his combination of size and athleticism would make him a nightmarish player to try to complete a pass over.

But take a play like this, where Miller is tasked with tagging the roller as the ‘low man’ on the weak-side:

You just don’t see any of those special movement skills or fierce athleticism that may eventually make him a devilish disruptor on defense. It’s a robotic slide over to the paint, then a basic closeout to the corner that is too late to prevent a clean 3-point look. Miller looks, respectfully, more like a YMCA coach showing how it’s down than a preternaturally gifted athlete.

Combine plays like that with holding the ball too long or missing cutters on offense, and his play from Summer League, to me, was fully representative of the MIller conundrum: In order to unlock what we know he is capable of, his basketball brain has to catch up to his body. I will be enthralled by this development in the coming years for Miller.

But as you may have guessed, given the prompt for this roundtable, Miller was often impressive in his minutes in Vegas. It wasn’t just the shot-making, though making seven threes in five games, as well as an array of mid-range shots, was a welcome sight. I was delighted to see Miller frequently use his size on the inside, aggressively posting up and sealing perceived mismatches in the lane. Now, again, this was Summer League, meaning a lack of offensive identity and, well, passing ability as a unit meant Miller’s Timberwolves teammates did not frequently get him the ball in these situations.

But becoming an efficient off-ball mover bodes well for those instincts I mentioned. And combine a willingness to post-up and rebound (the latter of which we know Miller can do) with potential shot-making from deep, and suddenly, Miller is the coveted offensive player who can play in a five-out offense or be the ‘one’ in a four-out, one-in offense.

Those were just two ultimately fruitless in which Miller tried to leverage his size into a good look at the rim, the first of which had some small part in creating a good look at the rim for a teammate, but the G-League Ignite product was relentless in Vegas. It was incredibly refreshing to see Leonard Miller, who may project as a big guard on offense, be so active and willing to use his size down low. That’ll make guarding him a whole lot more problematic for defenses. 

@BeyondTheRK – MarJon Beauchamp’s shooting touch, decision-making, scoring versatility

MarJon Beauchamp has looked like the best player on the floor in multiple Summer League games. MarJon’s feathery shooting touch, decisive decision-making, and smooth scoring versatility have stood out for the second-year Milwaukee Buck.

In game one, MarJon led a second-half comeback victory for Milwaukee, aided by strong defense from teammates like Andre Jackson’s double block possession. After a slower first half in his first game, MarJon took the keys to the car and revved the engine; Beauchamp rallied from a 2/9 start from the field to convert 7/9 FG in the second half, finishing with 23 PTS on 50% FG% and 8 boards, 2 assists, and 1 steal.

Moving at a more controlled pace, with deliberate footwork, fundamental post-moves, and tight handles to create his own shot from all three levels.

Countering pull-up jump shots with elbow fades and even a self alley-oop slam to open his second game. Somewhere off in the distance, wherever Tracy McGrady was in that moment, it’s nice to think T-Mac looked up, smiled, and nodded in approval.

In game two, Beauchamp stayed in rhythm from the game prior, scoring 20 PTS on 7/13 FG, racking up a block and steal, attempting 8 free throws after 5 the first game.

MarJon using his respected jumper to pump-fake and draw defenders in the air is a highly-aware veteran move to create the most efficient shot in basketball: free throws

Clean footwork, tight handles, good feel helped Marjon show complete body and ball control with the rock.

Beauchamp has made scoring look smooth and shooting look simple. He was purposeful in his decision-making, attacking the rack for soft touch AND1 finishes, looking to create shots for himself or kick the ball to the open man.

MarJon didn’t see much of a defined role or opportunity in his rookie season. Now with a new head coach, maybe a better fitting role in the rotation arises. It’s no secret Giannis, Brook, and Jrue could use another scoring valve in the halfcourt next to Middleton who gives the team another player who could go off on any given night.

This type of microwave scoring option who can heat up at any moment, score the ball from anywhere on the floor on or off the ball, and add team-first decision making and length to the equation provides a secondary scoring option rotation player, on paper a clean fit as a reserve who offers a tough shot-maker to potentially close games with the defensive-heavy Milwaukee Bucks starting unit.

AJ – Trayce Jackson-Davis’ passing ability, Warriors-style

Despite limited time in Summer League, Trayce Jackson-Davis was able to show what makes him such an intriguing fit with the Warriors. He displayed his usual explosiveness and activity around the rim on both ends, but the reads and quick decisions he flashed as a passer really stood out as well. 

Trayce not only demonstrated the ability to make the simple pass to keep the offense moving, but he had moments of brilliance and made passes that a vast majority of bigs aren’t capable of. One of his passes in particular was eerily reminiscent of another Warriors frontcourt player:

Overall Trayce’s athleticism as a roll man and ability to affect shots at the rim on the other end remain his greatest strengths, but it was very intriguing to see the passing pop as much as it did in his short stint in Vegas, especially knowing how much the Warriors value bigs that can read the floor and make decisions. 

Charlie – Lester Quiñones’ scoring and passing translating from the G-League

After a strong showing in Vegas, LQ might just be one of the best scorers not already in the NBA.

With the Sea Dubs last season, Quiñones posted the 12th highest PPG mark in the league, getting up 10 threes per 36 minutes at a 35% clip. He was used to handling a high scoring load, and did a fair amount of playmaking for the team. Not only did he manage the 2nd highest assist percentage on the team, he posted a strong 1.4 ATO for a score-first wing.

In Vegas, we saw the same strengths: prolific scoring (21.6 PPG, 1st among 5-game players), firing away from deep (9 attempts, ranking 3rd), and a solid base of playmaking (5.2 assists, 9th overall). What impressed the most was how he did it. LQ was very aggressive with getting two feet in the paint, showcasing a strong array of kickout and layoff pases to capitalize on rim pressure. The finishing wasn’t going well for him, but he drew the most free-throws (41) of any player in the tournament.

This is what caught my eyes the most about his stretch of play. The variety in his scoring gives a consistency to his game even when one aspect isn’t working. Without the threes falling, he still used his developing handle to put points on the board in other ways and continue to create pressure for others.

Quiñones has put himself in the conversation for the 14th roster spot, with a two-way certainly in hand. Even if he ends up spending another year in Santa Cruz, it looks like Golden State has found themselves a player in the undrafted Memphis wing.

Michael Neff – OTE alums performed well across the board

In my one-size-fits-all draft strategy article, I said I was fine letting other teams draft Amen and Ausar Thompson. I said this due to the enigmatic nature of their league, Overtime Elite. We had no idea how the Thompsons’ dominance in OTE would translate up to the next level; Dom Barlow’s garbage time and end-of-season tanking minutes were the only real sample we had going into the draft of an OTE player making it to the NBA. So, did dominance in OTE mean that stardom was in their future, or did it simply mean that you were good enough to stick in an NBA rotation? Was Ausar the next Andre Iguodala or the next Keon Johnson? Should Amen have dominated even more given his otherworldly athleticism? 

These questions were not meant to be flippant. Because there was some intriguing NCAA and G-League talent who offered quick avenues to positive contribution and high upside, I would have taken the wait and see approach with the Thompsons and OTE. I wasn’t a skeptic, just agnostic. 

But, as it turns out, OTE has prepared its players for the professional level. I know it is just Summer League, but I’m already more excited about these OTE players and the talent the league will produce in the coming years. Ausar Thompson really did look like prime Iggy out there, with a per game slashline of 13.5/9.8/3.5 to go along with two steals a game. His length, quickness, and anticipation were overwhelming defensively, and the dribbling and connective passing from OTE stuck around. Amen Thompson only played one game, but he looked like a top five athlete in basketball right now. 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks in 28 minutes speaks for itself. No one could stay in front of Amen, and he picked the defense apart with his passing to a degree no one in the Rockets’ young core is close to emulating. 

The Thompsons were the headliners, but it wasn’t all about them. Dom Barlow seems to have built on his athleticism and added more skill to his game. He didn’t attempt any threes, but Barlow’s midrange jumper is looking better. He also averaged 2.0 assists to 1.3 turnovers. What I loved to see from Barlow was how functionally he used his athletic tools. There was a purpose and precision in his movements that I don’t remember seeing from him before. Barlow might have gone from a flash in the pan to a possible contributor for the Spurs moving forward. Even Jazian Gortman and Jaylen Martin, with the Bucks and Knicks respectively, had their moments. Gortman’s creation for himself and others looked strong, and Martin played quality defense and made good decisions for the Knicks.

It is too early to take any overarching lessons from the 2023 Draft. But, OTE already has me on high alert. Not only does OTE look like a viable development path, but a potentially very beneficial one of the right players. I will be keenly monitoring them going forward. Also, note to self: when two of the best passers and ball handlers in the class are also two of the best athletes in basketball, just put them high on your board.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Summer League 2023 Takeaways appeared first on Swish Theory.

At Swish Theory we don’t like to be limited by the actual, as studying the potential is a way to a deeper understanding of the game, as well.

We asked Swish Theory contributors to represent the nine teams with best chance (all 4.5%+) to land the French 19-year-old and make the case that they are the team who deserves him, not just due to lottery odds but due to team infrastructure and Victor’s own interests.

Swish Admin and Editorial Teams then decided who answered best for each of the four questions. And finally, as there are many more prizes than Vic for a rebuilding team in this draft, who each team’s favorite fit among top draft prospects who are not named Wembanyama.

Who do you think made the best case?

Question 1:

What’s your team’s plan for fitting Victor Wembanyama into your basketball roster on day one?

Detroit (Josh A.): 

The Detroit Pistons currently have one of the strongest young cores in all of basketball with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren. Adding Victor Wembanyama to this core would likely make it the strongest in the NBA, as the overall blend of skill sets would have the opportunity to create an elite big four assuming all goes right for the team. Acquiring Wembanyama to be one of two defensive anchors alongside Duren, along with being the top scoring option on offense, sets the team up very well for the future. All four pieces of this hypothetical big four mesh very well together, which is why I believe that this core would contend for championships in the mid to late 2020s if they all stay together.

Wembanyama will step into the NBA with the largest catch radius in the sport, which makes him a direct complement to Cade Cunningham’s passing skill set. Cunningham loves throwing lob passes to his centers, which is why he had so much success with Marvin Bagley at the end of his rookie season. Giving Cunningham the player with the largest lob catch radius in the league would create an unstoppable alley-oop combination, which would be a constant and stable part of the team’s offense. This would likely lead to teams providings lots of weak side help on Wembanyama’s rolls to the basket, where Cunningham can spray skip passes to Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey in the weakside corner and wing. These two would be able to strongly exploit these 2v1 situations, making Detroit one of the more potent offenses in the NBA from the jump.

Victor also pairs very well with Jalen Duren on defense, as the two bigs can run versatile coverages together. One can serve as the primary PNR defender while the other roams around near the basket, and I foresee Victor being the roamer in their early years together. Wembanyama frequently over-fixates on the ball-handler in pick and roll situations, which leads to open roll men more often than you would like. He is able to get away with this now due to his insane combination of length and fluidity, though this is a long term issue that Wembanyama will likely be able to fix. Once he perfects his positioning, Duren and Wembanyama can run many valuable pick and roll coverages, which would bring even more unpredictability to the team’s defense. The rim protection with the two monster shot blockers would be something to behold, and they would likely anchor elite defenses in the future due to the overall value of rim protection and scheme versatility. 

Houston (Neema):

While we are young in Houston, we are in a pivotal time in the franchise. With the hiring of Ime Udoka, as well as having upwards of $45m in cap space, there are multiple routes to success we can have this offseason, with the addition of our new superstar draft pick. The goal is to get past our youth, and build a team sustainable for success, that also amplifies the strengths of our players. 

Being able to slot Victor into our starting lineup allows for some incredible versatility. Having a big-to-big game between Victor and Alperen Sengun, arguably one of the best young centers in the league, opens up plenty for guards like Jalen Green to create on the perimeter and pressure the paint. Playing Victor at the 4, we can have him attack with Alperen playing the high post, and defensively, Victor covers the aerial space that Sengun struggles to protect. Having shooting wings like Jabari Smith, or fastbreak threats like KJ Martin and Tari Eason, Victor can play in a versatile, quick, and dynamic offense that spaces the floor and attacks open spaces. The growth of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun will only help Victor, as they’ll be able to create space for him, and help him be effective on the offensive end without expending too much energy, as his defense, along with the presence of Smith and Eason, will be the anchor for our team.

What is up in the air at the moment is how to consolidate, and who to target in free agency. With the addition of Victor, many free agents may see Houston, with a new culture, budding superstars, and a coach that gets the most out of his players, as a premier landing spot. With contracts like Kevin Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate’s, as well as a healthy amount of draft picks, we can make a trade to bring in another premier piece that amplifies Victor. Being able to get the most out of Victor on the court, while lessening his load to maintain his conditioning is our goal, and we have the pieces and flexibility to make it happen in Houston. 

Spurs (Tyler): 

In the case of San Antonio, there should be very little “fitting in” required. The organization is incredibly familiar with ingratiating future Hall of Fame big men into their roster and creating a plan for steady, healthy development. As reported by LJ Ellis of SpursTalk, the team has already begun preparing for the possibility of winning the lottery (https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-preparing-for-victor-wembanyama/).

The on-court plan begins with playing Victor strictly at the four to begin his career. There is no value in rushing minutes at the five before he is physically and mentally ready to helm that task. The presence of Zach Collins, Charles Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili provide three distinct styles of front court partners who can take on more physical assignments. 

The perimeter talent on the team in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones are all incredibly complementary with essentially no avenue towards taking touches away from Victor. With over $30mm in cap room this off-season, there will be ample opportunity to add veteran guard play and wing defenders. 

This team is flush with scalable, youthful talent, cap space, and the greatest coach in the history of the sport. If you are thinking purely about basketball context, San Antonio is a better fit than meets the eye. There is competent, complementary talent at each position but are lacking a star at the center of their universe. If you want to hit the ground running, while still being the undisputed #1 scoring option, San Antonio is the place to be. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We have one of the most promising passers in the league in LaMelo Ball which makes your life a lot easier on that end. There isn’t anyone in the league who is matching your catch-radius, and LaMelo will really take advantage of this. You could become the most electrifying duo in the league pretty quickly. It’s more fitting the roster around Victor, not the other way around, and we have both major financial flexibility to act on the free agent market and a young core to complement him. Other than that, we have a variety of frontcourt options to put next to you in PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Kai Jones, or JT Thor to complement your skillset as best as possible on both ends.  

You can look at our current mismatch of talent as inconsistent, but I’d say it has Wemby-sized needs, with a versatile big defender and shotmaker as giving us just enough scheme flexibility to let Lamelo be Lamelo, with bit players all around in support. Just imagine a Lamelo/Victor pick and roll – what else do you need? Such an action would be unstoppable year 1, especially given Victor’s increased physicality in the interior. Lamelo can pinpoint Wembanyama’s unreal catch radius at creatively timed moments, and Vic can learn how to find Lamelo in his spots as well.

Blazers (Uri):

Offensively, we don’t see the need to start things slowly. We want to win and Victor’s already proven that he can be the initiator in a high-level offense at Mets 92. Hit the ground running, inverted PnRs with our electric guards (including, Damian f****** Lillard), inducing mismatches on the weak side to initiate a big-big two-man game on the inside. Vic would enhance Jusuf Nurkic’s strengths as a passer and post player while mitigating some of his weaknesses defensively. 

Off the ball, Lillard and Simons demand so much attention that running simple concepts will create a lot of space for Wemby to operate. And Vic’s already demonstrated comfort with more complex ball screen actions in France, so even if the decision-making off the short roll needs improvement, the floor for success is already established in Portland. For as much as other lottery teams have players that can be good in the future, not one of the other teams has the players with the same kind of gravity that ours do.

And on the defensive end, we might have even more fun than on offense. Chauncey is one of the most creative defensive head coaches in the NBA, all he needs is the personnel to apply his concepts. Though the offensive stuff goes viral, it’s the defense that would make things click here in Portland. We see him as a 4 early in his career next to Nurk. The weak side big, swooping in to erase shots and deter would be drivers, roving around and letting his length and instincts take over. 

Magic (RK):

Defining a role to unleash what Victor Wembanyama does best now with the freedom to develop weaknesses into strengths long-term is the primary goal. Asking Victor to impact the game immediately in three ways: Instinctual help-side rim-protection; Unreachable rim-rolling lob threat; Unblockable relocating deep range shooter. Generating clean catch-and-shoot threes is an easy offensive target to hit for such a skilled shooter with as versatile a shot profile as Wembanyama in year one. From standstill to motion threes, Victor has flashed shooting skill in every situation; the team that drafts him should test the limits of his incredible shooting ability. Pick-and-pops, Spain/Ram P&R, Stagger and Elevator Screens are sets that involve Wembanyama as the movement shooter in the action to force the defense into an impossible choice, effective counter options to the traditional pick-and-rolls and handoff sets where Victor rolls to the rim with higher vertical reach on lob threats than anyone else has ever imagined. In post-ups, the footwork, soft touch, and tough shot-making skills are already worth exploring against mismatches and sharpening the sword until every opponent becomes a mismatch.

Victor Wembanyama enters the league as one of most impactful rim-protectors and tough shot-makers the sport of basketball has ever seen. Due to his rare combination of handles, touch, and instinctual feel for the game at his height, Wembanyama’s floor is a league-ready floor-stretching rim-protector. Combining these innate traits to further develop all-around ball skills gives him one of the highest ranges of realistic potential developmental paths any prospect can hope for as an unguardable versatile on-ball scoring engine; a rim-sealing paint-protecting defensive anchor; a one-man wrecking crew on both ends. With Victor’s tough shot-making, deep shooting range, and natural rim-protection instincts being a safe bet to translate to every level of basketball, Rookie Wembanyama’s impact could range anywhere between a long-range sniper defensive anchor like Jaren Jackson Jr. to a tall shot-blocking tough shot-maker in the realm of Rookie Durant, only Victor stands five inches taller than both.

Bending defenses by attacking the paint is the best way to create open looks from deep. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz naturally create C&S 3pt opportunities by each averaging 10+ drives per game, making Orlando one of only four teams to feature three players who drive to the rack that often. Among many reasons to draft Vic, adding Wembanyama’s floor-stretching gravity to the frontcourt perfectly balances any spacing clunkyness in the starting lineup; one couldn’t dream up a better stretch-big threat for kickouts off Paolo faceups, Franz Chicago handoffs, and Fultz P&R snake-dribble drives than Wemby’s unoverthrowable shooting pocket. Life on the court can’t get much easier for Victor Wembanyama than playing off the vision, feel, and playmaking of Paolo, Fultz, Franz, and Cole Anthony, with a strong versatile defense already in place between Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac, maybe the most exciting young roster in the league ready to compete for the foreseeable future.

Pacers (Charlie):

Looking around at the teams in position to secure Wemby, you see a lot of unserious rosters and ownership groups. The top four are a mix of bad rosters, owners unwilling to spend, and terrible vibes. The Pacers aren’t historical big spenders, but have a roster that is one elite piece away from making the playoffs.

A 35-win team adding the best prospect in two decades works well for both sides. Myles Turner could provide some nice frontcourt synergy with Wembanyama, with spacing on the offensive side to allow Vic to work freely inside the arc while providing elite rim protection to lessen the overall defensive load. We’ve seen how huge Jarrett Allen has been for Evan Mobley’s development, allowing him to move between both frontcourt spots instead of playing heavy minutes at the 5.

There is also elite young guard creation present. I don’t have to tell you that a Haliburton-Wembanyama two-man game would be special to watch, but they also have Bennedict Mathurin on the rise as a prolific young wing scorer. The need for Vic to be an instant offensive impact is much lessened by the conditions of the roster. Little of the rotation next year is set in stone, but I can imagine free agents will overlook the franchise location and team pedigree for a chance to play with Tyrese Haliburton and Wemby. Overall, I think the Pacers present the best chance for Wembanyama to play winning basketball before his rookie contract is up, while not taking away from his potential development as an all-around dynamo.

Wizards (Joe):

Wes Unseld’s creativity as a play designer makes Washington one of the more intriguing fits for Wemby, even though I’d imagine many don’t want to see him there. The variety of chin and delay sets Unseld has deployed make Wemby an intriguing schematic fit. Him and Porzingis can both space the floor. There may be some small concerns they get in eachothers’ way, but I actually think Porzingis’ general unwillingness to go inside the arc could be very good for Wemby’s development. He’s going to get the majority of reps attacking inside if he lands in Washington.

Defensively, the fit is absolutely incredible. Porzingis and him could dominate with sheer size and instincts on the interior which makes things easier on the guards and wings on the roster. You could be highly experimental with coverages and this is something Unseld has shown a willingness to do. When you mesh Daniel Gafford into this big man rotation too, it’s just an incredibly effective trio on that end with size and high percentage shot types.

Jazz (AJ):

With the style in which Will Hardy coached his first season in Utah, there’s no doubt that Victor Wembanyama would be a near perfect fit on the Jazz. Hardy frequently used lineups with multiple skilled bigs on the floor at once, and was able to get the most out of them. Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award. Kelly Olynyk set a career high in assists while nearly doing the same in points. Heck, even Luka Samanic, a 6’10 former first round pick who had been in and out of the NBA, had the best stretch of his career playing for Utah at the end of the season. When you look at the success of these 3 players at various talent levels, you can only dream about what the 7’4 ultra-skilled Wemby would look like under Will Hardy. 

Playing next to a more traditional Center like Walker Kessler early on would also be a benefit for Victor. As Vic matures and puts on more muscle there will be plenty opportunity for him to play the 5 more down the line, but early on in his career saving him from having to take on matchups against physical bigs like Nikola Jokic or Steven Adams will make his transition to the NBA a lot easier and potentially help him stay on the floor more. 

Question Winner: Detroit Pistons

Honorable mention: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets

Question 2:

How do you plan to evolve Victor’s game over the long-term on your squad? How much will you develop as an on-ball offensive shotmaker/creator vs. his off-ball skills? What’s your ideal use for him on defense?

Detroit (Josh):

When you combine Wembanyama’s generational size and length with his touch and feel for the game, you begin to realize that Wembanyama is capable of things that nobody else on the court is capable of. In order to properly develop him, I would make sure to mix in the on-ball and off-ball reps while getting him involved in many pick and rolls. Familiarizing Wembanyama with the spacing and court dynamics of NBA high post plays will be valuable for his overall development curve, as he should be able to swiftly learn how to get to his spots against the highest level of competition. There may be some growing pains along the way, but Wembanyama’s combination of pull-up touch and ability to draw contact on jumpers should make him fairly productive on these plays from the second he steps foot on the court. Using him on rolls to the basket will also be a productive form of offense from day one due to his gaudy catch radius on lobs.

Wembanyama’s combo of size and pull-up shooting will give him lots of on-ball gravity when he fully figures out scoring at the NBA level, and he should be able to progress as a passer as he sees more high post looks in the league. He could face double teams fairly early in his career, which will be good for his long run passing development. Wembanyama’s height gives him access to passing windows that some players wish they could access, as he should be able to scan the court from above and deliver high velocity passes to open teammates. Finding a balance between his on-ball scoring reps and using his off-ball gravity will be crucial for his development, and I believe that he could easily find this balance on a team like Detroit. The supporting cast around him meshes well with his skillset, as guys like Jalen Duren can lurk around the dunkers spot while Wembanyama operates from the high post, Jaden Ivey can 45 cut from the wings or curl around for downhill dribble hand-off plays, and Cade Cunningham can find angles to receive the ball and quickly move it to an open play finisher.

Houston (Neema):

With how skilled Victor is, there is no telling what route he can take to be successful. He could become a taller Durant, or a more mobile Giannis with good touch. The goal in Houston, is to increase his strength while not having him put on too much weight, to really lean into his defensive ability. His size, foot speed, and ground coverage would make him an elite roamer in a system that needs good paint protection. Having Tari and Jabari guard the strong side wings, Victor will be able to protect and deny the weak side purely on his presence, and also hide the struggles of Jalen Green and potentially James Harden, should he find his way back to Houston. With Sengun also in the paint, Victor’s ability to protect the rim will be needed, and having him help from the weak-side cuts off half the court for the offense.

Offensively, he can do whatever he wants. Victor would come in being one of the best advantage creators on the team, and probably one of the better shooters. Having him play off Sengun would give the Rockets an unstoppable big-to-big game with the new rendition of the Twin Towers (Hakeem and Ralph Sampson), or having him play two-man with Jalen Green forces teams to either allow Jalen to blow past them, or give Victor the space to get the ball up high and finish at the rim. Offensively, the options are endless, and Victor will not be held back, as we want him to blossom into a player that we can rely on on both ends of the court.

Spurs (Tyler):

Vic is a once in a lifetime talent that breaks our typical framework for archetypes and positionality on the basketball court. Is he a center? Is he a guard? Is he a 7’4 Kevin Durant? When the sky’s the limit, the only mistake you can make is aiming too low. There is no better place for Victor to spread his wings and really see what he could become than San Antonio.

Of course there is a desire to hone Vic’s off-ball scoring, easy buckets are a necessity for any star. That experience should happen through simple repetition. Basketball is a team sport, and Vic is one of the most gifted prospects in its history. Learning to best relocate on the perimeter, crash the offensive glass or attack gaps as a cutter will come with time, given you are playing in a team-oriented offense. Thankfully, that is the only way San Antonio knows how to play.

The goal for Vic is not to create some helio-centric star creator that has the ball every possession, nor is it to pair him with one. He has the touch, coordination, dribble package and high release to be the most dominant scorer in NBA history. Defensively, his ceiling as a roaming event creator is nearly just as high. We see little value in forcing him to guard true centers or defend ball screens constantly. Saving his body for the offensive end, and maximizing his help defense impact, will be paramount.  

Maximizing that growth is the goal, and the only way to do that is to throw the kitchen sink. Pin downs, DHO operation, playing out of the mid post, operating as a roll man or as a handler, attacking shorter defenders in isolation. Everything is worth trying, because everything is possible. Prospects like that don’t come along often, and an organization with the pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs will not take that opportunity lightly. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We already have a good core that will benefit from your strengths as a creator. To start off and make it a bit easier for you, we could use you in a two-man game with LaMelo and steadily increase your on-ball creation usage when you are ready for it. But in the long run, we would strongly encourage you to play a similar role like you did with Metropolitans last season because it would enable us to build our offense around you with smart offball players like Biles Mridges, James Bouknight and Terry Rozier. LaMelo is used to playing all kinds of roles, and great players like you and him normally figure stuff out on the fly pretty quickly.  

On defense, we would like you to act as both an anchor and roamer type, depending on lineups. Playing next to Mark Williams, we would like to give you reps as a roamer, for example. Most of the time, we would put you in a lineup, where you are the anchor next to PJ Washington and “Biles Mridges”, to complement you on that end. 

Mets 92 has had success by simply giving you the ball early and letting you figure it out. We want to scratch whatever your ceiling is for on-ball creation as soon as we can your rookie year, with Lamelo getting you the ball in your actions as you each learn how to play off-ball with the other. On talent alone we should make the playoffs each season, and with that cushion to experiment, Victor will develop new post and iso moves he wouldn’t be able to with other squads. We have the flexibility of timelines: the talent to win now, but youth to experiment for the future.

Blazers (Uri):

We want the ball in Wemby’s hands as early as possible. Reps, reps, reps, and more reps as an initiator. For as polished an offensive prospect he is, our main focus is developing him as a playmaker, utilizing his planetary gravity to make others better. By the end of his rookie contract, we can 1.5:1 or even a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. Several calls to one Bill Walton have already been made.

Off-ball, we see Durant. Sharp cuts and off-ball screens leading to decisive play-making opportunities in the midrange and going downhill. Yes, the shooting is of utmost importance, but in the immediate future we want to take advantage of his touch and physical specs by establishing Victor as a dominant interior presence off the switch.

Defensively, it’ll be a lot of clam chowder, maple bacon donuts, and Nong’s Khao Man Gai. Adding weight and slowly adding strength. We want to calibrate physicality and fluidity, adding muscle without detracting from what makes him such a special off-ball athlete. We’ve seen shades of the ability to absorb contact, we just need to add slightly more volume to that frame to maximize his physical gifts.

Magic (RK):

A 7’5” human being who possesses an 8’ wingspan and the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot a basketball on the move; whose shot release looks as unblockable as Durant’s; whose grab-and-go modern point-center powers ideally fill out into a downhill force only emulated by Giannis; whose defensive motor never shuts off, deterring opponents from even thinking of approaching the paint like prime Dwight, Victor Webmanayam is a living testament to the create-a-player scenarios where a mad scientist takes the best traits of basketball legends, mixes them in a lab, and creates a freestylin’ Frankenstein Monstar.

Strength-building and weight management will be vital Wembanyama’s path to success at the NBA level, molding his body’s strengths and weaknesses to keep up with the grind of an NBA schedule. Putting on too much muscle could reduce his graceful mobility; not enough weight and he’ll be pushed around the paint like a rag doll. Maybe Wemby staying on the slimmer side accentuates his proven mobile skills like Anthony Davis. Even if that reduces his effectiveness defending and scoring out of the post, maybe that’s a worthwhile tradeoff in the long run since he’ll always have the footwork and shooting touch for post moves, doesn’t necessarily specialize in post-up defense, and can focus on being otherwordly in so many other areas. If Wemby’s ideal position from day one is a natural stretch-four help-side rim-protector, Wendell’s reliable two-way play at the 5 offers a strong traditional big man to pair Vic with against bigger frontcourts. Wemby can shift over to the 5 in advantageous matchups as he rounds out into his final NBA form, perhaps opting to put on necessary muscle to bang with the biggest bodies on the low block, like Embiid and Jokic.

In Orlando, Wembanyama has the opportunity to contribute to competitive basketball right away by filling an immediate rim-protecting floor-stretching role without being overtasked with too much of a scoring load in year one. Here, Wemby has a never-ending runway to develop into an on-ball superstar scoring creator as the team has plenty of playmaking, scoring, and defensive fortitude to fill any gaps along the way. As Wembanyama becomes more comfortable scoring in different on-ball playtypes, combining footwork, soft touch, and post moves into a consistent tough shot maker in all one-on-one situations, Victor’s scoring load should increase as long as the scoring stays efficient. Contesting without fouling, creating off the dribble, and making clean rotations are potential hurdles for Wembanyama to clear at the highest level, yet the basketball world may still wind up witnessing one of the most active shot-blockers, tough shot-makers, and lethal three-point snipers to ever play the game. Someone who can literally get his shot off over anything the defense throws at him, flashing scoring ability, rim-protection instincts, and all-around ball skills never seen before in the history of the sport for someone of his height and length, Victor Wembanyama’s development paths feel endless.

Pacers (Charlie):

Defensively, I’d like to see Wemby as the true roamer. With Myles protecting the paint, a lot of the switch responsibilities should fall to Vic. He will also be sorely needed on the glass to augment Turner, who has never been a strong defensive rebounder. His presence as a helping and switch-ready 4 can help mask the deficiencies of a Haliburton/Mathurin-dominated backcourt, though Andrew Nembhard minutes certainly help out. His talents would be wasted as a full-time paint protector, and since Indiana does not have that need, the team has no impetus to put him in a less than ideal defensive position. He can be your Bam Adebayo long-term, there’s no need to ask that of him right out of the gate, even if he is fully capable.

On the offense, I think he can help Indy in a variety of ways. Myles Turner was in the 88th percentile for roll frequency amongst bigs last year, and though solid enough as a roll man he is an equal (if not better) threat as a spacing/pick-and-pop big. Vic should see an equal diet coming off ball screen actions, and has shown the ability to pop as well as he rolls. Unlike Turner, I think he should be given a long leash of self-creation off these rolls and pops. Ideally, a 25-30% share of his offense could come via self-creation early on. Encourage him to face up or attack closeouts on pops. Let him use rolls to establish post position or try to cross the lane looking for shooters/cutters. He can ideally fill a lot of the actions they could run with Sabonis in years past. A splash of 4/5 PNR with Wemby handling or inverted guard screening actions wouldn’t kill them either.

Long-term, if the Pacers intend on keeping Tyrese Haliburton for the long term, they need to place a lot of emphasis on his off-ball game to match what is already elite self-creation skill for a big of his frame/age. A strong off-ball game not only benefits Haliburton and the team, it gives Vic the opportunity to conserve energy for late-game on-ball reps when a 7’4” game-breaking shotmaker is needed.

Wizards (Joe):

Ideally I’d love to run a chin/horns/high post offense with Wemby and Porzingis being interchangeable pieces, though I’d lean towards Porzingis’ usage being more of an outside usage. Washington already has one of the more diverse and well oiled delay packages in the NBA, and I’d continue riding these with the addition of Victor. Using his gravity to get good looks for others, while deploying the likes of Corey Kispert and Bradley Beal as on the move guys, pushing for empty side actions, seems a good strategy to me.

Defensively, I’d leave Porzingis and Gafford on the interior and let Wemby cause havoc with his wingspan and general freakishness. Porzingis will generally play in drop, I’d likely deploy some of the same coverages Ty Lue uses with Zubac. By this I mean potentially ‘hiding’ him on a weaker offensive player and keeping Wemby on the ball, allowing Porzingis to be that weak side rim protector. Mostly, I’m looking to mix up coverages as much as possible.

Jazz (AJ):

To start off we would ease Victor in a mostly off-ball role, with more opportunity and chances with the ball in his hands once he looks like he’s ready for it. I actually think this year’s Lauri Markkanen is one of the closest NBA comps you can come up with in terms of the ideal usage Victor gets in his prime. Vic has more upside as a ball handler and is 4-5 inches taller, but I think the way Utah utilizes Lauri within their offense would be the blueprint for Victor down the line. He has the size/agility combo to be plenty capable creating his shot in isolation or even running occasional P&R, but he’ll be even more dangerous wreaking havoc off the ball as a cutter, ball screener, coming off curl screens, attacking the offensive glass, etc.

Defensively, we’d look to take advantage of Wemby’s generational mobility at his size by playing with another rim protector a majority of the time. This is the strategy Cleveland and Milwakuee have used around Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen and Giannis/Brook Lopez pairings that have led extremely elite defenses, and a Victor/Walker Kessler pairing has an even higher ceiling than either of those duo’s. Vic at the 4 is the ultimate cheat code in the modern NBA, as he can fly all over the floor trying to cause as much havoc as possible while still having rim protection behind him.

Question Winner: San Antonio Spurs

Honorable mention: Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets

Question 3:

Sell me on your team’s long-term plan to not just make the playoffs but also contend?

Detroit (Josh A.):

The vision with Detroit long term goes as follows: an incredibly strong big four with complementary skill sets along with plenty of cap space currently available. Detroit made moves to acquire veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic last season, who can serve as the fifth starter for the time being. Bogdanovic provides the team with elite perimeter shooting and play finishing capabilities, and his wing scoring skill set works very well with the young core. 

Detroit also has the money to sign a strong free agent this offseason. Consider names such as Cam Johnson or P.J. Washington, both tall wing/forward hybrids with valuable skill sets. Cam Johnson is a lights out shooter and would mesh very well with the team’s young core, and P.J. Washington brings some off-ball scoring capabilities on offense with active hands and length on defense. Either player would be very helpful for the Pistons, as they both provide something that the team currently lacks: outside shooting (more so Cam Johnson than P.J. Washington). 

Houston (Neema):

Houston has been at the bottom of the barrel of the league since the departure of James Harden, and the questions about our culture are loud and obvious to the average fan. However, we are taking a turn this season, and looking to right our wrongs from previous years. The hiring of Ime Udoka, a proven coach during his time with the Celtics, will help us get the most of young, improving players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. With $47m in cap space, we can fill the roster with solid, experienced vets to complement our youth, and bring consistency to a lineup that allows their age to show a bit too often. 

Our core 4 youth movement of the aforementioned Green, Sengun and Smith, along with Victor, will be our focus, as each player complements the other on both ends of the court. While it may be a tough year or two to start, we are tired of losing in Houston, and will stop at nothing to get back to our winning ways that made us the 3rd winningest franchise between 2000 and 2020. Developing our youth, adding vets who can get the team right both on and off the court, and hiring personnel that will get the most out of our players, is our goal these next few years, and with Victor, we will only reach that goal faster.

Spurs (Tyler):

The San Antonio Spurs were in perpetual title contention for nearly two full decades, surrounding Tim Duncan with a bevy of different playstyles and roster constructions tailored to their franchise cornerstone. 

Building a contender is about building a cohesive roster with scalable, defensive minded talent. Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins offer a foundation of competitive and complementary talent that will be easily built out over time. Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones will help in creating easier looks for Vic through a combination of floor spacing and steady-handed pick and roll play. 

Most importantly, the Spurs are asset-rich with nothing tied down. We currently own all of our future first round picks with the rights to future firsts from Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, and twice from Atlanta. Building chemistry throughout a roster is important and finding the right context to grow with is a fickle task. Some of those pieces are already in place with the assets needed to make a big move when the time is right. 

Maintaining flexibility is the primary goal, as it is with any long-term enterprise. Things will go wrong along the way, flaws will be addressed. We have the future draft capital, prospects and cap space to address any speed bump along Vic’s journey to the NBA’s Mount Rushmore.

Hornets (Dennis):

This team is going to have a fresh start under new ownership with you as the franchise cornerstone. With you, LaMelo and the young core, we are just missing 1–2 pieces to make a deep run in the east in the foreseeable future. As I said before, we have pretty clean books from a roster building perspective, as well as a talented core to set up the future. The primary goal is developing the young core and adding additional pieces in free agency. We aren’t a free agent destination, but the chance to play alongside you and LaMelo could change that to an extent. 

It’s well known among coaches and front office staff around the league that Charlotte is among the league’s lowest spenders and I expect that to change under the new ownership group. We will turn every stone around and are looking to improve the franchise as a whole. 

Blazers (Uri):

Look at Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs and Luka with the Mavs. Conversely, look at the Tim Duncan situation when he was drafted number one by a Spurs team that already had HoFer David Robinson. Teams that take on a star rookie without the assets around him to build a competitive ballclub tend to whither under the pressure of that ticking clock. Any team with Damian Lillard and our amount of perimeter scoring will compete for the playoffs. In terms of contention, we know our roster needs improving, but we have more tools and a much more malleable squad than others would have you to believe. 

This offseason, we have two trade exceptions totalling $10.5 million, the full Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2m), and the full bi-annual exception ($4.5m). Not to mention our current cap progressions don’t really tell the story of our books. Jerami Grant is a free agent, Cam Reddish is a sign-and-trade waiting to happen, and the only cap hold we 100% know we’re interested in resigning is Matisse Thybulle (not to mention the not-so-secret secret that we can always hit eject on Simons along with our trade exceptions to bring in an even more impactful player). We’re in a position to win around the edges, and with how wide open the West is, we’re the only team that can feasibly compete for a deep playoff run while Wemby’s still on his rookie deal.

Magic (RK):

Thanks to the team-building process of front office execs Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, Orlando has sought out, targeted, and recruited good all-around basketball players who look for the open man, make the best decision for the team, and play hard on both ends. Behind the dual-wielding 6’10” drive-and-kick scoring hub on the wing in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the steady hand of pace-pushing playmaking point guards in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, the strong sturdy 3&D play of Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, the explosive energy of a second unit led by Jalen Suggs and the intriguing lengthy upside of Bol Bol and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando may already have the brightest young core in the NBA full of two-way team-first connector prospects at every position.

This season, Orlando made the 3rd biggest leap in wins, racking up 12 more W’s than the year before. After a 5-16 start without their starting point, Markelle Fultz returned to the lineup, playing in every game since. Over the next 58 games with Fultz at the helm, the Magic posted a .500 record, ranking 7th in overall Defense by D-RTG and 6th in drawing fouls as a team via FT Rate. The Magic being so proficient in paint touches, drives, and drawing fouls between the creation of 3+ players all under 25 years old are bright red flashing lights signaling a sustainable scoring system. Orlando’s length, energy, and rotations already doing the little things necessary to rank highly as an elite defense when the roster is relatively healthy is a positive sign that player-favorite Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s message to play hard and hustle every play is hitting home.

The biggest magic trick Orlando pulled off this season is putting out the team’s most watchable product on the floor in a decade, with non-stop competitive energy and an open up-and-down style of play, competing for a playoff spot up until the final week, all while maintaining one more shot in the lottery before “being too good to be bad”. The Magic somehow entertained fans for the full season while ending up with the 6th-best overall lottery odds and a 9% chance at winning the lottery outright for the draft rights to the most dynamic rim-protecting and tough shot-making scoring prospect the sport has seen since Kevin Durant, if not ever. Orlando has enough depth of competitive young talent to project a perennial playoff team going forward no matter who the team drafts this summer, with possibly two lottery picks on the way, and the cap flexibility to pursue at least one max-salary star in free agency. Imagining the overwhelming length, defensive impact, and scoring versatility in a lineup featuring Fultz, Franz, Paolo, Wembanyama and Isaac, Suggs, Cole, or Wendell is scary to think about.

Pacers (Charlie):

If you are adding the approximately 4-year/$42M deal that Vic gets to the salary sheet, the Pacers will be guaranteed paying 5 total players in 2024: Tyrese, Vic, Myles, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard. Assuming Haliburton is paid the rookie max a la Ja Morant, they’re looking at a roughly 5-year, $200M commitment. That leaves them paying roughly $75M for the core of the roster after this season, one in which they could probably still make some noise with Buddy Hield in the fold and some decent role guys.

Indiana can decline options on Daniel Theis, Isaiah Jackson, and Chris Duarte worth a total of 19.9M to end up with nearly $50M in cap space, more than enough to add a max contract to the fold. With the 26th, 29th, and a couple of seconds in this year’s draft, it’s reasonable to say the Pacers will add 1-2 more potential cheap young contributors, who can fill in at the margins or form part of a trade package. Extensions loom large as ever, but the 2024 free-agent class is loaded with All-Star caliber wings that Indiana can take a stab at. We saw with the DeAndre Ayton RFA offer that the front office is at least somewhat serious about spending to capitalize on their young talent.

The Pacers could maneuver their way into contention by 2026, when Wembanyama will be extension ready, by capitalizing on the draft this year and making shrewd decisions to try and land the big fish in the 2024 offseason. Even if they don’t, $40-50M spent on the right role players to augment a Haliburton/Wemby/Turner core could make them a tough matchup in the East. If signings or later draft picks break their way, who’s to say this isn’t the right time for the Pacers?

Wizards (Joe):

The elephant in the room is the Bradley Beal contract, it’s untradeable. He however is still pretty good and I think in the short-term, a playoff series win isn’t off the table. It may sound crazy, but the sheer size of the lineup with Kuzma, Wemby and Porzingis is going to be very unique in the Western Conference. Add that to the fact the likes of Delon Wright and Corey Kispert are pretty scalable and easy-fitting, pushing for playoff relevance isn’t completely ouf of the question.

Down the line, being aggressive in trades and playing the margins is a pivotal part of the process.

Jazz (AJ):

I think Victor’s rookie season we would likely make the postseason just off sheer talent, but it would largely be a feel it out year to see what type of roster and personnel fit the best around Vic. Is the gigantic Lauri/Victor/Kessler front court tenable long term? If not, which one out of Lauri or Kessler is the better fit and which one should look to be traded? Does Vic need a strong playmaker next to him to thrive, or can he be just as productive with a scoring PG like Colin Sexton? 

These are the type of questions we’d be focused on answering in Victor’s rookie season. Then from there, we can execute getting the correct players around him using Utah’s massive collection of assets. Between the approximately 14 first round picks the Jazz own from now to 2029 in addition to good/young players on attractive contracts (Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri, Kessler) we’d have plenty of assets to build the ideal supporting cast to supplement Victor and whoever we want to keep in the core next to him. 

Question Winner: Orlando Magic

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Question 4:

How do you see me fitting into your franchise off the court? What can you offer that others cannot?

Detroit (Josh):

Detroit is often looked down upon by NBA fans, but the city and franchise has a distinct long-term culture that Wembanyama could fit into. The team has always been known as a “take care of business” type of franchise, as teams like the Bad Boys and the mid 2000s Pistons were always some of the hardest working teams in the league. Young players like Cade Cunningham have publicly adopted this mindset, and Wembanyama could be next in line to fit into the team’s culture. Basketball is in a good place when the Motor City is fighting for the top, and a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama could propel the core to contention within his first few years with the team.

Houston (Neema):

*Cue Tops Drop by Fat Pat*

No city in the bottom of the lottery has more culture than Houston. Let’s start with the most diverse city in the United States. Candy paint lowriders, taquerias on every corner, a beautiful skyline, and a city that loves every athlete that walks through the door. In the heart of Houston, you will find yourself a home that not only accepts you, but wants you to become part of the culture. 

Do you miss France? French is the 6th most spoken language in Houston, with plenty of french restaurants scattering the city, and you can catch a direct flight to Paris whenever you like. Like the beach? Take a drive down to Galveston, or a joyride to South Padre over the weekend. Want the big city feel, but like your space? Houston is the 4th most populated city in the US, while also being #1 in area, so there’s nothing but space for you. More of a party guy? Welcome to the strip club capital of the United States. Big fan of outer space? Check out Space Center Houston, and see yourself among the stars. Like rap music? Find yourself hanging out with legends like Bun B, Slim Thug and Maxo Kream as they are a huge part of the culture in Houston. And don’t forget the best part: NO. STATE. TAX. The millions you’ll be making will go straight to your pocket, giving little to the government to mooch off of you, as you find yourself making more and more money in the best city in Texas.

Not to mention our long standing history of elite bigs, Houston is THE home for big men. With players like Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, and the legend Hakeem Olajuwon walking through the city, Victor Wembanyama will see his name hung up with some of the best bigs in NBA history. Everything is bigger down here, and adding a 7’5” superstar only proves that fact. 

Spurs (Tyler):

The question is this Victor, what kind of star do you want to be?

The city of San Antonio, and as a result the Spurs organization, is built on a singular foundation: family. This is a city proud of its culture and unchanging in its values. San Antonio is the largest city in America to be predominantly hispanic and you feel that everywhere you look. This is the Mexican-American city. 

I would imagine the folks in Houston told you they have great tacos.

Forgive them. They know not of what they speak.

San Antonio is a place where you will be beloved the moment you walk through the door, but more than that you will be respected. This isn’t some glitzy city concerned with celebrity or fame, you will have the freedom to live as normal of a life as you want. This is an educated basketball fanbase that understands the price of excellence. If you show up, they will love you until the end of time.

The question is not whether the city will turn on you when times get tough, it is the number of murals you would like to be made in your honor. 7? 13? 23? We’ll make it happen. 

The truth is, you will be an earth-shattering star wherever you go, your city will not determine that. If your goal is to become an actor, it might not be a great fit. If your aims are something higher than mere celebrity, but rather excellence and sustainability, there is no better place. Building a dynasty takes a remarkable amount of support and no other city knows better, we’ve done it before. La familia isn’t going anywhere, thick or thin. You won’t find that anywhere else. 

Hornets (Dennis):

I’m sure you’ve already spoken with Tony *Parker* our Nic *Batum* about our franchise and what the city has to offer. You can become the face of the city and Charlotte Hornets basketball pretty quickly.

Want to be the next goat? Consult with the current one. Want to hang out at one of our thousands of breweries to debrief from a tough-fought game? We got you. Hikes? Beaches? We’ll remind you of the French countryside if you let us (and squint).

Blazers (Uri):

We know there’s nothing Vic likes to do more after a long day of eviscerating the competition than curling up with a good book. Few places are better to call home than the PNW. With the tip-tap of rain on the roof, beautiful forests, and the silhouette of mountains in the background? Are you kidding me? Sounds like heaven. But, if he wants to hit the town in search of fine art, underground jazz music, or a refreshing seasonal IPA (in a coupla years), Portland has all of that and then some.

There’s just something about Portland and Vic that feels kindred. Portland is a multicultural urban hub in a quiet, beautiful state. Wemby’s the best prospect since Lebron but by all accounts is more of a gentle giant (off the court) than a Shaq. While the media circus will follow Vic wherever he goes, the opportunity to return to Portland and be the friendly neighborhood Wemby will do wonders to calm the immense pressure placed on him to start his career.

Ultimately, with a recent change in ownership, head coach, and GM, we see Victor as a sign of the times in Portland. Bringing in Vic as the totem that times they are a’changing for our franchise. He stabilizes things off the court as much as he does on it. For as much as the fan base will love him wherever he goes, he’ll always be compared to Hakeem in Houston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Zeke in Detroit, or Reggie in Indiana. With all the newness in Portland, he’ll have a chance to really grow along with the team as he helps define the Golden Era of Blazers basketball.

Magic (RK):

Sunshine and sunshowers. Freshly squeezed orange juice. No state income tax. Ever hear of the most magical place on earth? Orlando has warmer weather and more access to things to do than most NBA cities. Players make millions extra in salary by saving on income tax. The city is an hour drive to some of the most heavenly beaches on the planet, while being far enough inland to generally be safe from storms on the coast.

Between Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, and Paolo Banchero, Orlando only knows how to drop hits with the number one overall pick, even trading for Penny Hardaway the one year they shipped the pick out. (Chris Webber) Magic fans who have been loyal through the last decade that national media members treat as a laughing stock are die-hard supporters, yet none of the off-court drama exists here compared to larger market fan bases with media outlets adding unnecessary pressure or being overly negative. There isn’t a spotlight on every failure in Orlando compared to L.A. or Phili. Players have the freedom to make mistakes here and learn from them with long-term positive support to develop freely.

From upscale bars and nice restaurants to dive bars and sketchy clubs, Orlando offers a downtown atmosphere with suburban options, filled with museums, lake walks and theme parks as far as the eye can see. There’s always something going on twenty minutes away whether you’re raising a family or living single going out on the town. Be a tourist one day, a local bar-hopper the next day, and a beach bum the day after that. Live whatever life you want here. There’s a reason the first thing players say after winning the championship is “I’m going to Disney World.”

Pacers (Charlie):

Indiana is the basketball state. It doesn’t have the glamour of New York or LA, or the up-and-coming appeal of other NBA cities, but the culture surrounding the game is as good as you can hope to get. If he’s an outdoorsy kind of guy, they have some nice lakes. If he’s a city guy, Indianapolis is indeed a city, and Chicago is also close by. It’s not as appealing as the on-court fit, but he will have options for what kind of lifestyle he wants to live, whether he chooses intense urban sprawl or open skies.

Wizards (Joe):

Victor is an intelligent guy, and he knows that coming to DC would help elevate his profile not just as a basketball player but as an ambassador for the sport at the US capitol. It’s a short trip to the White House when we win the championship, and will give you plenty of avenues for expanding your brand however you’d want, in a central, big market location. Can any of the other teams in the lottery offer you that? I don’t think so.

We have been dreaming of a star of your caliber to arrive to tap into our basketball culture as a city, with grassroots hoops all around as well as front row season tickets to the Mystics. We’re a quick trip up or down the coast to whatever vacation location you desire, and as quick as you’ll find of a commute back to France. Make DC what you want of it!

Jazz (AJ):

One of the benefits of the Jazz organization is we’ve had a lot of success with foreign players and keeping them happy in recent history. The best player on the team currently is the Finnish Lauri Markkanen, and before him Rudy Gobert, who you know personally, was one of the most iconic Jazz players in franchise history and embraced by the fan base. Outside of basketball Salt Lake City might not be the most exciting or action packed NBA city, but the state of Utah is beautiful and there’s something to be said for a lack of distractions off the court. 

Question Winner: Houston Rockets

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

Question 5:

Give me a player besides Vic in the projected top of draft who you think would be an excellent fit on your team in the case of missing on him?

Detroit (Josh):

If the Pistons are not lucky enough to walk away from the draft with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson would obviously be the player the team should take if they end up with the second overall pick. Lots of Pistons fans scoff at the idea of running three guards together, but I believe that the offensive potential that a trio of Cunningham, Henderson, and Ivey has is unquantifiable. The halfcourt offense would be strong, as the team would then have three players who can create an advantage and send the defense into a scramble. The core also has the requisite blend of feel and athleticism to take advantage of these scrambling defenses, as all of these players project to be good cutters with different tools to punish the opposing defense. Guard to guard hand-off plays would be incredibly effective with this core as well, as allowing one of Henderson or Ivey to get downhill with Cade Cunningham finding open pockets in the defense seems like an absolute nightmare to guard.

The transition offense would be elite with this trio as well, as Cunningham can loft outlet passes with quarterback-esque ball placement to either Jaden Ivey or Scoot Henderson. Both of these players are elite open court athletes, and countering both of them with a head of steam feels like an impossible task for opposing transition defenders. This team should be able to run the court all game long, controlling the game’s tempo and making up for many defensive concerns.

Speaking of defense, this is where lots of Pistons fans become uncomfortable with Henderson’s fit into the team’s current core. I personally believe that the defense would be fine if the team prioritizes acquiring more rim protection from their power forward spot, as the team possesses a true anchor in Jalen Duren. Scoot Henderson also projects to be a positive guard defender due to his insane combination of strength and lateral quickness, though he currently has a ways to go as an off-ball defender. With the ball-handling duties being split among three players, all three will likely be able to fully buy-in on the defensive end of the court, and with Jalen Duren anchoring the unit, the team should be a functional half court defense with the upside to surprise some people on that end.

Houston (Neema):

If you read my previous answers, you’ll notice a huge lack of point guards being talked about. While Houston has some great pieces at the 2-5 positions, having Kevin Porter Jr play point guard has not worked out, and the team should be looking elsewhere. Luckily, this draft also has one of the best point guard prospects in the last decade. Scoot Henderson from G League Ignite, while having a slower year than many anticipated, is still clearly the 2nd best prospect in the class behind Victor, and would be a huge relief to the Rockets, who struggled to have any kind of offensive creation last season outside of Sengun. 

Having a true point guard who can play both on and off-ball, and create an athletic backcourt with Jalen Green would help push the Rockets from a poor decision-making young team, to a dynamic, young squad that can punch you in the mouth off tip every game. Scoot, while not being AS impactful as Victor long term, does still fill in a huge hole for the Rockets, and brings a level of athleticism, decision-making and skill at the 1 position that the team is missing. 

Spurs (Tyler):

I have spent the last 6 months with five simple words etched into my brain, permeating nearly every waking thought I have.

Amen Thompson is a Spur.

Victor Wembanyama is far and away the top prospect in the class, that is undisputed, but Amen Thompson is the best fit considering their existing team needs.

The San Antonio Spurs were far and away the worst team in the NBA at maintaining and creating advantages last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. 

The patented hum from Spurs offenses past began with one thing: rim pressure. Without it, there was no drive to kick start the drive and kick offense. 

Amen Thompson is the preeminent rim pressure threat of this class and potentially of the decade, apparating past defenders on the perimeter at the drop of a hat. The Spurs roster is littered with excellent spacing and dependent scoring in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Amen will have more than enough space to make his magic happen, and with his very presence the Spurs would finally, once again make sense.

Amen Thompson could be the next great Spurs point guard, following in the lighting-quick first steps of Tony Parker, but this time with the positional size and maddening creative genius that allowed Manu Ginobili to steal the heart of an entire city. That possibility alone is worth the price of admission.

Amen Thompson is a Spur. I feel it in my bones. 

Hornets (Dennis):

LaMelo’s size and skillset would allow us to make everyone of the top prospects fit, but Amen Thompson would be a mesmerizing match with him. We could become one of the most lethal teams in transition with both Amen’s and LaMelo’s ability to throw mind-boggling outlet passes and run the floor hard on every opportunity. Both also would complement each other really well as tall ball handlers with superb passing ability and high level of feel on the basketball court. I would expect them to build a similar bond as a passing duo as Amen’s with his twin brother, but with Amen more often on the receiving end of the pass. He is the best overall athlete in the draft and probably a top 5 athlete by the time he steps on the floor and in most draft years would have a strong argument to be the number one prospect of the draft. 

Blazers (Uri):

Great question, our situation is a bit different from those of our lottery companions. We have perimeter scoring, but our roster needs balance. We see Jarace Walker as a really strong fit alongside our current squad. We have enough on-ball guards, what we need is a culture establishing bulldog with positional versatility. He fits both of our needs and wants, adding high level lottery talent as well as filling the needs with a two-way wing. We love his defensive ceiling and offensive floor and see him as a 15 year NBA player for a successful ballclub. 

Magic (RK):

Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, could be a great fit to grow with Orlando. The Thompson Twins played for Pine Crest in Florida during high school before playing in Overtime Elite; while some scouts recently bring up doubts due to competition levels, we can’t ignore god given talent, natural abilities, and hard work. Amen and Ausar are two high flying guards who have the first step, burst, body and ball control to explode at the rim at will, creating paint touches with ease, with the finishing touch at the rim helping to create a realistic development paths going forward as downhill scoring forces with tough shot-making abilities. Elite athleticism, footwork, and timing helps the twins bring high-level defensive impact.

While Amen rightfully receives praise for blurring coast-to-coast highlights, Ausar has flashed more of a C&S 3pt shot diet and defensive activity through their early careers. Amen ranked 3rd in blocks in Overtime Elite’s season with 33; Ausar nearly doubled that total with 60 blocks to lead all players. In a three season sample at Pine Crest, Amen shot 28.9% 3P% (45/156 3PA) from downtown while Ausar attempted more than twice as many on similar efficiency at 30% 3P%. (111/370 3PA) From the free throw line, one demarcation for future scoring development, Amen shot 62.5% (267/427 FTA) while Ausar shot nearly 10% better on similar volume at 71.3% FT%. (263/369 FTA)

Both twins deserve to be high lottery picks, with Amen in rumors as high as 2nd overall. While Amen could swiftly become a north-south force star and household name, Ausar could quickly fill an off-ball 3&D role locking down the other team’s best perimeter player at point of attack on one end while attacking closeouts off the creation of others like Paolo, Franz, and Fultz on the other end while maintaining similar exciting upside as his brother. With development of tight handles, versatile shooting profile, and tough shot-making, all the skills could come together for Ausar to take a high two-way floor and develop into a dynamic on-ball scoring option.

Pacers (Charlie):

Though it’s tempting to say Amen Thompson, as he would be the ideal backcourt mate for Tyrese, I want to be realistic about draft spot. But his brother Ausar might fall right in their range.

Indiana is lacking scoring juice on the wings outside of Ben Mathurin, so Brandon Miller feels like a logical fit, but I’d like to see Indiana add more playmaking to the perimeter along with potentially elite defense and some scoring chops. Ausar feels primed to step into a Lonzo Ball-type role as a strong ballhandler and elite second-side attacker with connective passing chops and the potential for a solid catch-and-shoot game. He can also take the hardest defensive matchups off Haliburton and Mathurin’s plate, and the energy he expels on that end will be countered by the load that Hali/Eggs Benny can shoulder on the other end.

I can’t think of a better balance of scoring on and off ball, playmaking, and defensive potential in a three-man group of young prospects. That’s the kind of talent that could put Indiana back on the basketball map, even without Wembanyama

Wizards (Joe):

We like Bradley Beal playing off of versatile defenders who can shoot, and if Wemby is a miss, why not swing on Taylor Hendricks in the top 10. Hendricks has shown promise as a shotmaker (40% on 4.6 threes per game) and a stocks-maker (1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals per game) and we like his upside as someone who can also play day 1 with his athleticism.

Hendricks can shadow Porzingis as a rangy scorer/shotblocker, while also developing unique chemistry with wing of the future Deni Avdija. Hendricks’ biggest weakness is likely lacking the highest level of feel for positioning, where Deni can make up for his weaknesses with sharp passing, step-ahead rotations.

For fringe playoff teams, athleticism, shooting and defense can only help. All that while keeping star upside? Sign me up.

Jazz (AJ):

The easy answer to this is Scoot Henderson. Even without Vic, we have quite a bit of talent and versatility in the front court, and based off the 2nd half of his rookie season Ochai Agbaji is gonna be a fixture in our wing rotation for years to come. The biggest issue by far with our core right now is the lack of a top tier primary ball handler; and while Colin Sexton and Talen-Horton Tucker are both getting better and each have a genuinely elite trait to build upon, it’s clear that neither is close to rivaling Scoot Henderson as a long term prospect.

Outside of being a little light on perimeter defense, a Scoot/Agbaji/Lauri/Kessler checks virtually every box and we’d have plenty of assets left to invest in another 2-way wing to supplement this core. Amen Thompson or Anthony Black would also be great fits as potential NBA lead guards, but there’s no doubt that Scoot Henderson’s playstyle and star power would give our core the best possible chance at contending out of any player in this draft not named Victor.

The post Who Deserves Victor Wembanyama? appeared first on Swish Theory.

Conference Semifinals

East Round 2, Series 1: Team Gannon vs. Team Josh A.

#1 Seed – Team Gannon

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Porter (aka TrillBro)’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Gannon 3

First off. These teams are built extremely well around their star players. I love that the Harden team is filled with switchable defenders who all can either spot up or create their own shot in a pinch. If this team were built around peak James Harden (2017-2020) I think it would be virtually unstoppable. Also thank you for giving me some PTSD from previous Sixers playoff series – mainly the old Celtics series – where an Embiid team has to matchup with a wing heavy two way team that can cause him nightmares. This team is certainly more balanced if you are looking to build a two way force in a playoff setting. Defensively this team would be a nightmare to score against – especially if Evan Mobley is able to stay out of foul trouble – but their main weakness to me is that they would not be able to apply the rim pressure that a prime Harden team would provide. 

As a Sixers fan .. the Embiid team is also a dream. While they might have some limited two way players (DFS on offense, Garland on defense) they all fit around Embiid like a glove and really build on his strengths. Garland is the exact kind of guard that will thrive with Embiid. He can run actions in the pick and roll to get Embiid the ball in his spots, he also can thrive off the ball running DHOs with Embiid or spotting up when Embiid has the ball in the post. As a vertical spacer and rebounder, Robert Williams provides the exact dunker spot threat that the Sixers are currently missing. DFS in the corners is also money. While this team might be exposed in drop coverage if you can involve Garland and Embiid in actions on the perimeter you would have four elite team defenders in the starting lineup (and two other rim protectors) that could make up for this weakness. Offensively I could see this team becoming a bit stagnant if Garland and Embiid’s shots are not falling but Embiid will living at the line, while also putting Evan Mobley deep in foul trouble early and often, and Garland’s playmaking and shot making combination should be enough to carry the load 

Ultimately this comes down to what do you want more? A team with a true superstar that has or a team with more two way versatility and shooting at every position. Maybe I am biased as a Sixers fan here but I think that Joel Embiid is the best player in the series by a fairly wide margin – and while he has had some playoff shortcomings in the past – this is the best version of him and this team would be a nearly perfect combination of star power and role players to highlight his strengths. Offensively I believe this gives them a massive advantage over any team that does not a surefire number one option.Mikal Bridges recent star leap is an interesting wrinkle but against a great playoff defense I am not sure if we can expect him to provide the same level of production that he has provided over the last 25-30 games as the number option in Brooklyn. If you could rewind Harden by 3-5 years when he provided more rim pressure or even fast forward Evan Mobley 3 years when he will be stronger for the Embiid matchup (not that one person can stop Embiid but you need to have a baseline level of strength) and more developed offensively, this series would probably swing in the other direction. 

East Round 2, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Will

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Ian Levy Decision: Team Will 4, Team Oscar 2

Team Oscar has a lot of advantages on the perimeter and homecourt advantage implies that they’re coming into this series as the higher seed and favorite. But I think Giannis would present a unique challenge (as he does in the real world, with literally every team), even if Grant Williams has historically done a decent job on him. 

With Team Will basically replicating Milwaukee’s formidable defensive frontcourt, I think they can handle the multiple creators on Team Oscar, and happily live with a lot of contested mid-range jumpers from Butler and Brown. I also imagine Team Will would have a fairly significant edge on the glass, which would be a meaningful advantage at both ends.

I don’t think this is a blowout series, I think there are a lot of close games. But Team Will’s defense holding up and Giannis manifesting his will around the basket is the difference.

West Round 2, Series 1: Team Sajdak vs. Team Tyler

#1 Seed – Team Sajdak

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent. 

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

vs. #4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

Todd Whitehead’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Sajdak 1

Team Sajdak looks a lot like last year’s Memphis Grizzlies team, just with absolutely none of the vibes. Imagine if the 2022 NBA Executive of the Year, Zach Kleiman, decided to orchestrate a multi-team deal that cut ties with Memphis’ beloved, homegrown core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Brandon Clarke in exchange for the obviously talented but sometimes prickly trio of Irving, Towns, and Hardaway and then, as the playoffs were getting started, he decided to just rip out whatever was left of the heart of his team by handing over Brooks and Adams to his opponent, totally gratis. That’s basically what this series is! 

I have an app that takes a hypothetical 5-man lineup and tries to spit out the real NBA lineups that look most similar to it. I fed it the proposed lineup of Irving, Hardaway, Anderson, Jackson, and Towns and it started smoking and the message it returned just said “FUNKY”. The simple fact is that there are not a lot of frontcourts that look as #funky and #weird as this one. Interestingly, there are several current and former teammate pairs in this series and Anderson has played real-life minutes with both Jackson and Towns. But could all three of them work together? In the previous two seasons in Memphis, Anderson rarely shared the court with Jackson and the minutes those two played alongside another big (Adams, Clarke, or Jonas Valanciunas) were net negative. Likewise, the trio of Anderson, Towns, and Gobert have rarely played at the same time this season in Minnesota, and the minutes they have shared have been a minus. Of course, the dual-stretchiness of Towns and Jackson would add a different dimension to this frontcourt which wasn’t available in Memphis or Minnesota, so maybe the spacing would be fine, but I remain a little skeptical.

Team Tyler, on the other hand, is like a Frankenstein monster of pieces of the best teams in the West. We know, empirically, that these players can (and do) pair nicely together: lineups with Durant and Paul are +15 points per 100 possessions in Phoenix this season, Murray and Gordon are +12 in Denver, and Brooks and Adams are +11 in Memphis. Moreover, Durant, Paul, and Murray have all proven in recent years that they can thrive as both primary or complementary options on offense. Over their last three healthy seasons, each of these stars has taken at least 200 spot-up threes, making 45, 41, and 43% of them, respectively. Toss in DiVincenzo – who has made 42% of his own 299 spot-up threes over the last three years – and Team Tyler is going to have plenty of ways to stretch opposing defenses. They will be able to attack with multiple weapons and should be able to do more than just “take turns” trying to score.

In terms of matchups, I don’t see any real issues for Team Tyler. Stevens can hold his own on Towns, Gordon can guard Jackson, Durant can matchup with Anderson and take some liberties in helping out around the rim, Murray can be stashed on Hardaway, and Paul should give Irving a stiff challenge. Having the ability to mix in Brooks or DiVincenzo is a nice bonus, allowing Team Tyler to throw a different look at any shooters from Team Sajdak who happen to get hot. On the flip side, I’d say the biggest question marks will be – who is Irving going to guard from Team Tyler? And can Slo Mo slow down KD enough to keep it interesting? In my opinion, Team Tyler rolls. 

West Round 2, Series 2: Team Neema vs. Team Corban

#2. Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #6. Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Joe Viray’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Corban 3

This was a pretty difficult decision for me because I think both teams have extremely viable arguments for winning a series against each other. On one hand, Team Neema has, in my opinion, the perfect combination of defensive versatility and offensive juice to power through just about any team that’s put in front of it. On the other hand, Team Corban has what Luka Doncic has always needed: shooters, and not just the league-average kind – I mean, bona fide SHOOTERS. Coupled with just enough defensive help, it can also power through almost any team you put in front of it.

However, what makes me choose Team Neema in a close series win is how perfectly built it is to take advantage of it’s one main strength: pace. In order to beat teams with pace, you need to catch opposing defenses on the back foot constantly. How do you do that? You make sure not to take the ball out of the basket as much as possible – and you do that with tough, hard-nosed defense, which this team has in spades. Compared to Team Corban, Team Neema also has much more rebounding talent, which will be important for them to immediately trigger the break. Ja Morant is the perfect point guard to play such an uptempo style. The wing trio of Wiggins, Porter, and Edwards is a unique blend of length, wing defense, and a powder keg that can provide explosive offense. Gary Payton II is an absolute hound and can make life difficult for any opposing ball handler. Looney and Clarke provide the hustle on the boards.

Ultimately, I think Team Neema may be a bit too much for Team Corban and its lack of athleticism beyond Jonathan Kuminga and lack of rim protection/deterrence beyond Draymond Green. Relentless rim pressure, dogged defense, and constant uptempo basketball will tire Team Corban out, especially Luka, who thrives in the deliberate nature of the half-court game but may be forced to sprint constantly against such an athletic team. Which is why I think Team Corban will eventually run out of gas as the series progresses. Team Neema takes it all the way.

Eastern Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Larro vs. Team Josh A.

#4 Seed – Team Larro

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Steph Noh’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Larro 2

Team Josh A. is going to take this one down in 6 games. The NBA is a star-driven league. As good as Donovan Mitchell has been, Joel Embiid is a tier above him. Embiid is going to be able to carry Team Josh A. in this matchup. 

In fairness to Team Larro, Embiid has struggled against the Cavs this season. Struggling for him though is still scoring 28 per game on 60 percent true shooting. And while Team Larro has Jarrett Allen, a great defender, to put on Embiid, Embiid is going to eat Kevin Love alive in the minutes where Allen sits. 

Team Larro also has Darius Garland, who has had one of the more underrated seasons in the league and been overshadowed by Mitchell’s superb year. Garland can help spread the floor for Embiid and set the big man up with his great court vision. 

Mitchell is liable to go off for a big number in this game. He’s averaged 37.5 points per game across four contests with the Celtics this season. But the spacing on that team is going to be iffy, with Smart and Crowder both streaky shooters and Jarrett Allen a non-shooter. Love and Grayson Allen could help alleviate some of those spacing issues, but Love is going to be tough to play in this series because of that Garland-Embiid pick-and-roll.

Round 1, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Josh U.

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #6 Seed – Josh U.

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

Samson Folk’s Decision: Team Oscar 4, Team Josh U. 2

So, my initial lean is that Team Oscar wins in 6 games. Tatum is the best player here, no doubt, but I do think that Team Josh U.’s offense could be greatly affected by an aggressive gameplan to overload on him. Grimes, Brogdon, Herro, all impressive players in their own right, and with Herro obviously being able to scale up as a primary creator for stretches. Blitz Tatum, and I’m fairly confident that over the course of the series that Team Oscar will be able to delete the dangerous areas on the floor and zone up the big areas often enough to move them into the deep shot clock. For posterity, I’m assuming that the talent on top teams has flattened out because of a fantasy draft, but I also think that Team 1 will be more limited in their offensive counters than Team 2 will be. 

Obviously Brown has some off-ball defense warts, but I think you can have a lot of fun by using him as Tatum’s primary defender. I also think that Team Oscar eventually swaps Williams and Harris – to a positive effect. 

I think Team Josh U. is going to have a Maxey problem. He can easily work off of either of Butler or Brown, and when it comes to punching gaps afforded by his fellow stars, Maxey can be the elite play finisher at all 3 levels and he can make progressive passing reads out of them. With Butler and Brown ready to collapse the defense at any point in time, that’s good eating. Butler is also uniquely gifted among wings when it comes to creating for bigs, and I think that creates the potential for a couple big games from Robinson. 

Considering how much switching would go on in this series, and the mobility on both sides, this series would probably be extremely fun to watch.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Pow vs. Team Will

#2 Seed – Team Pow

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Rob Schaefer Decision: Team Will 4, Team Pow 2

I landed on six games because this would be a highly-competitive matchup, but when picking an upset, it’s always more likely the underdog will close it out on their home floor.

As for the reasons for leaning towards Team 2: I certainly see the specter of a highly versatile defense with Bam Adebayo and Al Horford in the frontcourt and Jrue Holiday the head of the snake on the perimeter. And the isolation shot creation up and down the rotation is intriguing in close games.

What concerns me is Team 1’s offensive upside. Holiday and Quickley’s pull-up shooting could certainly foil what I imagine will be a drop-heavy scheme between Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Portis. But over the course of a seven-game series, I’m banking on Antetokounmpo and Lopez winning the math equation for Team 2 by erasing the painted area and mitigating the pressure points that Dinwiddie and Brunson defending at the point of attack could present. I foresee the ball sticking a bit for Team 1, which plays to their isolation strengths, but could also bog them down against such a proven defensive formula.

Antetokounmpo, of course, is also the best player in this hypothetical series by leaps and bounds. Adebayo and Horford have both been as effective as one could ask for in checking the Greek Freak in the past. I’m just wanting for different players than Thomas or Barrett off the bench for Team 1 that would be more reliable ball-movers, floor-spacers and defenders. I think Team 2 has a few more ways to adjust over the course of a seven-game series by, say, sliding Antetokounmpo to the 5 and Portis to the 4, or inserting Hauser (who’s no defensive liability) for Brunson, Dinwiddie or Hart if knockdown spot-up shooting is needed.

It would be close. It would be back-and-forth. But so says my gut.

Western Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Tyler vs. Team Avinash

#4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

vs. #5 Seed – Team Avinash

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

Shamit Dua’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Avinash 1

Normally when evaluating teams, I am looking at size, creation, and shooting. In this situation the creation and shooting of Team Tyler far exceeds the size advantages of Team Avinash. On a surface, the team starting those two bigs is going to cede significant ground on battle behind the 3 point line and when the game slows down, I do believe Team Avinash will have to decide between one of the two bigs to deploy during crunch time.

Zooming in a little bit, Team Tyler having home court advantage cannot be overlooked. Teams are 516-714 on the road this season. In addition, having the ability to deploy complimentary players around Kevin Durant at all positions is a great boon. Steven Adams, one of the league’s strongest bigs, matches up with Jokic in the post quite well. Meanwhile, this frees one of Kevin Durant or Aaron Gordon to roam off of Rudy Gobert. The reverse can also be true – Team Tyler can attach Aaron Gordon to Jokic and double with Adams off of Gobert. There is more lineup versatility on Tyler Tyler on both ends of the ball.

Meanwhile, the ability to deploy Brooks and Divincenzo at the point of attack greatly slows Team Avinash’s secondary creation options behind Jokic. Mike Conley seems to have found a similar fountain of youth that Chris Paul has, but as a grueling series goes forward, team 1’s ability to lean on Jamal Murray is a greater advantage than Jordan Poole.

Ultimately, I really do like the idea of Team Avinash, this just seems to be the worst possible matchup for them. The lack of size on the wing will significantly impact their ability to defend Kevin Durant – especially once team 1 goes “small” and spaces the bigs out. Frankly, a lineup of Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, Dillon Brooks, Kevin Durant, and Aaron Gordon is terrifying.

I have Team Avinash winning one of their home games because Jokic is THAT good and I do believe this team is capable of winning the possession battle via rebounds and free throws, but I do not see a competitive series unfolding.

Round 1, Series 2: Team AJ vs. Team Corban

#3 Seed – Team AJ

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

vs. #6 Seed – Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Ricky O’Donnell’s Decision: Team Corban 4, Team AJ 2

I felt confident about a Team Corban victory initially, but questioned myself the more I thought about it. Ultimately, I’m going with Team Corban for a few reasons: 1) Luka is the best player in the series, 2) there’s a spot for him to hide defensive (on Bullock), 3) the Monk/Klay/Keegan contingent can bomb threes with volume and get out to a lead that will be very difficult for Team AJ to wipe away given their lack of volume shooting, and 4) I fully believe in Draymond’s ability to solve problems as they present themselves. 

I am a bit scared of the lack of defensive interior depth on Team Corban as I don’t believe in Wood’s ability to impact a playoff series much, but it’s possible Kuminga can even handle some small-ball five minutes and blitz more pick-and-rolls. I love the Brown-Kleber bench for Team AJ and the defensive versatility it gives them. The swing factor in this series is Klay’s ability to guard Fox – I cautiously think he’s up for it but ideally you have a better POA defender around. I have no idea who the Booker matchup is here, but I think Keegan and Kuminga at least have the size to slow him down, and I’m not sold on Booker hitting the gas to burn them to the cup.  Ultimately I think Luka surrounded by such great shooting is just too much, and Draymond can magically fix most of what ails this team defensively.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Neema vs. Team Charlie

#2 Seed – Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #7 Seed – Team Charlie

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

SJ’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Charlie 2

I chose Team Neema to win in a playoff series because I believe they have a better mix of  shooting, defense, rebounding and rim pressure than Team Charlie. While Anthony Edwards is an inconsistent defender, it’s mainly due to effort. With that being said, I like him and Andrew Wiggins on the wings defending with Kevon Looney manning the middle. They also have good POA defense with GP2 coming off the bench. Team Charlie’s shooting will win them a few games but Team Neema will ultimately win the series because of their defense and rebounding. Sabonis is the best rebounder when looking at both teams but Team Neema overall has a collection of better rebounders than Team Charlie.

I acknowledge (and so do you) that there are defensive schemes where both Sabonis and Naz Reid could look decent on defense but Team Charlie’s offense will be their biggest strength on defense. In a playoff setting I am usually wary of teams like this, especially given that I think Team Neema has the tools to exploit the weak defenders on Team Charlie. My biggest concern regarding Team Neema is their lack of playmaking. I think in this hypothetical universe if they did play and lose, it would’ve been because of the lack of playmaking. Team Charlie has 3-4 positive playmakers that can keep the ball moving which is definitely a strength of their team in addition to the shooting. The playoffs is *typically* a halfcourt game and Team Charlie definitely has the edge in the halfcourt because of this but coaching could mitigate some of the halfcourt concerns I have about Team Neema. 

Overall, I am more partial to defense and rebounding in the playoffs and I think lineup versatility is becoming more valuable which is why I went with Team Neema.

The post Swish Theory’s Playoff Remix: Results! appeared first on Swish Theory.

While that’s all well and fun, at Swish Theory we want to mix things up a bit. We want to imagine not just how teams currently constructed might perform, but…what if…everything was a little bit different?

That’s what we have here with the Swish Theory NBA Playoffs Remix. Fourteen contributors got together for a re-draft of all the players on playoff teams (top 7 seeds only, as of about a month ago – why the Mavs are here).

Who do you think would win? Basketball is a practice in creativity, let’s try to imagine the teams of the future, not just in 2023. We run these scenarios by special guest judge collaborators, to be announced over the course of the week – but who do you think will win?

The Teams: Eastern Conference

#1 Seed (last pick in first round): Team Gannon (@gannon_rice)

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

The pitch for the team is a souped-up version of the 2017 Rockets, with an actual #2 option. James Harden is James Harden, to clear up any confusion. Now, combine the defensive prominence of Trevor Ariza and the shotmaking of Eric Gordon, and out of the lab comes Mikal Bridges. Melton takes on the off-guard role of a less rabid Patrick Beverley with high volume three-point shooting. Cam Johnson is a modern-era Ryan Anderson and Victor Oladipo provides bench creation like Lou Williams, but with size and defense. Evan Mobley provides the two-way rim threat of Clint Capela, along with serious on-ball chops. Then we go 2 years in the future and snag Hartensteins short-roll playmaking and defensive feel, did I mention this Rockets team won 55 games?

Our offense will be predicated around James Harden, but not the typical heliocentric offense seen in the past. The offensive feel our bigs bring allows a 5-Out look, utilizing them with the ball above the arc spamming DHO’s with every one of our players and stagger/split offense on the wings. P&R will be a key part of our offense, with Harden carrying a bulk of the primary usage, either creating his own looks, kicking to shooters (4 guys at 40% from 3), or throwing lobs to the rolling bigs (spamming ghost screens if it’s Cam at the 4). Mikal has shown an incredible leap as a 25 efficient PPG 1B option who will excel playing off Harden and easing the on-ball load off him. If you’re not convinced, let’s go over everything the offense can do. A do-everything offensive engine, a capable #2 creator, elite shooting, positional versatility, and every single one of our players providing a connective ball-moving offense, unique to every other team. 

Selecting James Harden meant I had to cover up some of his defensive liabilities, and I did just that. Melton and Oladipo provide elite POA defense for 48 minutes, and provide positional versatility to guard up to the 3. Mikal will match up against the top wing, while having off-ball freedom to cause chaos. Mobley will be our anchor, versatile in any role and capable of being a helpside roamer at the 4 and being a primary 5 in our defensive scheme. That scheme, P&R wise, will feature a mix of everything. This includes switching with mobley at the 5, blitzing slow processors, playing drop with IHart + against non-mid range threats, and primarily playing at the level, incorporating a soft hedge. Playing against reigning all-defensive team members Mikal and Mobley will be hell for the star western conference forwards. The 2 names not mentioned in the scheme, Harden and Cam, are both capable of being switched 1-4, allowing for further versatility in a defensive lineup with length, off-ball hawks, perimeter stoppers, and elite rim protection. 

#2 Seed: Team Pow (@draftpow)

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

The two items that translate best from the regular season to the NBA playoffs are 1. defensive versatility and 2. tough shotmaking. When teams are able to lock into scheme, the NBA becomes a jousting competition, not exactly in iso but instead shooting pull ups aggressively after catching the ball on the move. With the best defensive personnel by far while still full of scorers and sound decision-makers (our starters have a combined 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio), we’ll play the territory game, winning possessions, finding open scorers and putting opposing stars in a bind.

In the playoffs, defenses are only as good as their worst defender. You need personnel who can not just fight through a screen but contest in an instant and understand how to recover in broken plays. My team’s worst defensive starter is Julius Randle, still league average and capable of locking in at a high level as an elite athlete. 

Second, you need to plan for your offense to go wrong. Your opponent will know where you’re trying to go, and your common ways of getting there. Players who can make adjustments on the swivel like Bam Adebayo, Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Immanuel Quickley are rare, especially when they can also hit tough shots. We can sneak in some easy looks off of back cuts to optimize our passing, as well as all-five screening using our strength. Our team is built to be on a swivel, and also have 45%,  38%, 37%, 34% three point shooting starters and flamethrower Cam Thomas off the bench. 

We have potential swing factors across the board as any of Jrue, Randle, Barrett, IQ, Cam Thomas and Bam have a combined 13 forty point games this season. We have the tough shotmaking and strongest collective quick decision making to optimize our weapons.

#3 Seed: Team Oscar (@oscar_hoops)

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams 

With my first pick being relatively late at #5 in the East pool, I didn’t head into the draft with a set roster construction philosophy in mind. Instead, I decided to see how the board fell and build around whichever centerpiece fell into my lap accordingly. While there were unfortunately no true superstar offensive options available when I got to the virtual podium, I was able to shift gears and assemble a gauntlet of defensive talent stacked to the brim with length, strength, and versatility. Rather than settling for a 2nd-tier primary creator with my top pick and trying to build a conventional offensive dynamo, I prioritized players who can offer major resistance in gaps and as point of attack defenders, while also nabbing enough tough shotmakers and individual offensive talents to make things work on the other end. From a championship upside perspective, the track record for teams without an MVP-caliber offensive fulcrum (although Butler was pretty damn close this year!) is admittedly poor, but I’m willing to bet that we can be an outlier with our combination of suffocating scheme-versatile defense and litany of talented scorers surrounded with good spacers.

If there’s one thing I’ll promise about this roster, it’s that we’ll have a counter for any flavor of creator we run up against. We have several elite point-of-attack options to throw at the two most common archetypes of high-usage offensive stars: small guard PnR maestros (Jevon Carter, Butler, and even Jaylen Brown), and bigger wing creators (Butler, Brown, and Grant Williams). To generate a favorable 1-on-1 matchup against our starters, opposing teams will have to run lineups with 5 players who are all threats with the ball in their hands, something most rosters are simply not capable of. And when we roll out our death lineup, swapping out Maxey for Jevon Carter, we’ll effectively have 5 fringe All-Defensive caliber players on the floor at once, while still maintaining good spacing around our 2 dynamic creators in Butler and Brown. Our elite length and range on the wing will allow us to be selectively aggressive sending gap help, as we won’t have to overcommit to slowing down drivers with the knowledge that we have an elite rim protector in Robinson waiting for them. We also have options in terms of pick-and-roll defending bigs: Robinson is our traditional drop big who also has hedge-and-recover flexibility, while Williams can moonlight as a small-ball switch 5 depending on matchup. Our defense is long, athletic, uber-versatile, and has few weak links, making it adaptable to any matchup and an ideal fit for playoff ball.

On the offensive end, we’ll adopt a ball-sharing philosophy to maximize our depth and hunt positive matchups. Much like how our defense offers few exploitable matchups, our plethora of solid-or-better scorers (Butler, Brown, Harris, Maxey) will prohibit opposing teams from hiding a weak perimeter defender on a non-threat. If they have a liability on D, we’ll be able to exploit it! 

Although we don’t have a traditional point guard on roster, Butler will serve as the de-facto primary ballhandler, as he provides both the most rim pressure and self-creation ability on the roster. His steady diet of pullup-2s, layups, and free throws will be the staple foods of our offense. Jaylen Brown will still be a key cog on that end, serving as a 1B option with the starters, and he’ll also be staggered to get minutes with the bench unit. We’ll mask his shaky ball control by getting him the ball in motion, primarily through pistol sets, and allowing him to win with touch and natural athletic gifts. Tyrese Maxey will be the nominal starting point guard, but will function as a lethal off-ball scorer playing off of our two star wings. Although he won’t be starting at the 4, Tobias Harris will still get significant minutes as a 6th man, filling in as a combo forward who can assimilate to any lineup we put him in. Finally, Mitchell Robinson will offer us an elite interior finisher and offensive rebounder who can command vertical attention as a roller, which will in turn allow Butler/Brown to cook in the short midrange. Although somewhat unconventional, our offense features 2 star creators surrounded by a cast of complementary players shooting 38%, 39%, 39% and 43% from 3 this season, respectively (excluding Mitchell Robinson). Having an elite pullup shooter to soak up late clock attempts in the playoffs is priceless; we have two of them, with plenty of kickout options available and elite play finishers on both levels in Maxey and Robinson. Although this is a defense-first team, we have the offensive firepower to score with anyone and always take advantage of the opponent’s weakest link.

#4 Seed: Team Larro (@_larrohoops)

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love 

When I joined this fun exercise I set out to find an elite offense generator, rim protector, strong second scoring option that can also play make for others, and fill out the rest of the roster with role players that can stretch the floor and add some Variety to our offense.

Offensively this team will be coached into playing more random style offense with few set plays. I think that when you have players with the ability of Donovan Mitchell you allow them to apply pressure to the game and let them control the flow and pace. We will run double drags/single drag with Jarrett Allen as the screener for rim pressure and vertical spacing, at times it can be inverted with Jae depending on the type of defender who is guarding him. Pistol action with DMitch and Jarrett/Kevin Love. Being able to have Khris Middleton on the opposite side of the floor is a beautiful site when DMitch is your primary ballhandler because you can bet that he will have a lot more ability to attack tilted defenses and create for others off of it. Marcus Smart will stretch the floor, screen, and cut to keep things on the random side. Jae Crowder will also be in that floor spacing role mixed with some cutting. Grayson Allen and Kevin Love come off the bench and bring more shooting and versatility. Grayson can shoot off of DHO stuff, C+S, and movement just a bit. Kevin Love provides the ability to run some delay type actions with his passing ability. 

Defensively, I believe that I have one of the top Pick-and-roll defensive duos in the draft with Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. Jarrett has a cool ability to switch when needed, he also does a really good job of moving his feet and hips and being able to stay attached even when he is beat because of his length. Marcus Smart is our quarterback on this end of the floor. He can call out actions before they even begin and communicate with his teammates to make their job a bit easier. We already know about his point-of-attack defense. He’s a hound on the ball and off. As for everyone else, Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder both can switch screen actions to keep the ball in front of them. We will be prodominently a no-middle team on side ball screens, and middle ball screens we will switch it up. With Jarrett Allen in the fold we can show at the level because I can trust that Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder will have Jarrett’s back on those backside rotations. Kevin Love when out there will be a show at the level and will stay out of drop. 

All in all, I think I’ve built a team who can compete and shoot well enough to allow Donovan Mitchell and Khris Middleton to stay on the attack and create offense. 

#5 Seed: Team Josh A. (@joshaber_sports)

The pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

When I filled out my roster, I made sure to build my team to fit the strengths of my team’s superstar Joel Embiid. As a result, I made sure to surround him with pick and roll creators, elite and switchable point of attack defenders, and backline rim protection for when Embiid ends up being my primary pick and roll defensive big. 

I believe that Darius Garland would be a strong pairing with Joel Embiid, as his overall outside shooting and pick and roll play gives Embiid plenty of space for his beloved mid-post plays. I envision Garland relocating during these plays or receiving off ball screens to get open shots, which would in result distract defenders and prevent Embiid from getting helped on too much. Derrick White will be my primary point of attack defender, and on offense he will provide the team with great outside shooting, cutting, and connective passing. I believe that his skillset meshes very well with Darius Garland, who may struggle on the defensive end against tougher assignments.

As for my forwards, Dorian Finney-Smith provides the team with lots of length and physicality on the defensive end. He can serve as the team’s wingstopper, allowing White to cover the other team’s best guards and Robert Williams to be in his roamer role. I decided to go double big to support Embiid on both ends due to his weak side rim protection capabilities on defense and his ability to lurk around the dunkers spot on offense. I also think that Williams has some clear utility as an off ball screener when Embiid is operating in a face-up, as teams will have to fight to get around his screens to contest shots from our shooters.

As for my two rotational players off the bench, Caleb Martin provides the team with shooting, closeout attacks, connective passing, and physical on ball defense. Martin struggled at times when playing in a primary forward role with Miami this season, but when he was on the wings more he was able to showcase his offensive skill set more often. I decided to pair Jalen McDaniels with Caleb Martin as my other contributor off the bench, as I think he serves as a good compliment to Martin on the defensive end. Martin is very solid and physical while McDaniels brings lots of length and swift ground coverage on the defensive end.

When matching up with Larro’s team, we will be putting Embiid in a mid-drop system where he may at times play up at the level to deter pull-up threes from Donovan Mitchell. However, we may be able to get away with the drop system due to Derrick White’s excellent screen navigation. On offense, we will be running lots of Embiid pinch post plays, as he can create his own offense with ease. We will also implement some post split plays for Darius Garland to get some open threes or potential drives, which maximizes the offensive skill sets of our two stars.

#6 Seed: Team Josh U. (@2REDJUrl)

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

NBA playoff success requires top quality offense AND defense. Of the 8 conference finals teams over the last two NBA playoffs 6 were in the top 10 in ORTG and 7 were top 10 in DRTG. I wanted to build a group who could do the same.

On offense all 8 conference finals teams had at least 1 player who averaged over 11 drives per game and 6 of the 8 had two such players! To drive our offense I drafted 3 players who average over 11 drives per game in Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, and Tyler Herro. Our spacing is excellent with 6 players who shoot above average from deep on over 6 attempts per 100 possessions. And we also have an elite finisher and lob threat in Nicolas Claxton who leads the league in fg%. 

Defensively all 8 of those teams were in the top half of the league in opponent eFG%. I built my team with an elite rim protector in Claxton, two quality POA defenders in Quentin Grimes and Royce O’Neale, and size across the rotation to switch. My opponents will have to work hard for good looks against us. We have the pieces to be a contender.

#7 Seed: Team Will (@w_a_morris)

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline.

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

The lottery gods blessed me with the first pick in the East and I ended up rolling with NBA Champion and 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has proven capable of being the go-to-guy on a championship team, so selecting him was a no-brainer. I tried to replicate Milwaukee’s frontcourt rotation, later taking Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. The Lopez-Giannis duo has been deadly once again this year, with Milwaukee recording a 9.2 Net-Rating with those two on the floor. Teams are shooting just 60.0% within 6-feet of the basket against Milwaukee this season. Preventing easy buckets at the rim is a recipe for winning basketball. 

Giannis is obviously going to draw plenty of defensive attention, so with the rest of my picks I looked for players who could punish defenses off his scoring gravity, both by knocking down open shots and attacking closeouts. Jalen Brunson has established himself as a true superstar this year, winning as a creator with his exceptional footwork, handle, and touch. Dinwiddie too provides some excellent secondary/tertiary creation chops. Both guards also have plenty of experience operating away from the ball. Josh Hart has given the Knicks a huge spark as a slasher and spot-up shooter, shooting 74.2% at the rim and 56.8% from three. Sam Hauser is one of the best shooters in the world at 6’8”, and while he’s probably going to have to log more minutes at the 3 than he has in Boston, his ability to bomb away off of movement bolsters our bench offense. 

The obvious concern with this roster is our perimeter defense. Hart is tenacious on-the-ball, but at 6’4” he may struggle to check some of the more difficult wing assignments in the NBA playoffs. Dinwiddie and Brunson will have to really lock in at the point-of-attack versus lead ball-handlers. Fortunately, having Giannis and Brook on the backline lurking gives us some leeway.

The Teams: Western Conference

#1 Seed: Team Sajdak (@davidsajdak8)

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent.

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

Picking last in the west meant that the true 1A primary option type of guys were already off the board before I got a chance to select. So, I decided to really focus (as best I could) on lineup versatility and flexibility rather than building my team around 1 talent. Playoff basketball can get really funky so giving my coaching staff (or me I guess) as much wiggle room as possible to make in-game adjustments or get weird with things was a goal of mine.

My primary lineup of choice offers plenty of shooting and playmaking, with one of the best isolation players in Kyrie Irving able to go get me one when the game calls for it. With the way Kyrie likes to play off his bigs, I was really excited to pair him with one of the league’s premier big-man playmakers and play-finishers in Karl-Anthony Towns. Add Kyle Anderson to the mix and you have a lineup with 3 players that you can trust to make good decisions off the dribble and maintain or capitalize on advantages that have been created for them. With Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. rounding out the lineup, I have two guys that are both more than capable shooters (especially Hardaway, whose an elite one) and can make plays off the dribble attacking closeouts. Off the bench, Tyus Jones is the best backup point guard in the league, offering a steady hand when Irving has to check out the game. Finally, Konchar gives me another +decision-making wing that’s capable of making open shots.

On defense, I got a perennial DPOY candidate in Jaren Jackson Jr. who I targeted early on in the draft. Jackson is somebody I see as the perfect fit next to KAT defensively, allowing him to stay away from the perimeter and cleaning up his mistakes with his elite weakside rim protection. My starting lineup is lacking in size at the guard positions, but this is where flexibility/versatility I was talking about earlier can really start to pay off with Konchar able to play the 2 over THJ if extra defense or size is needed. I also have the ability to play JJJ as my 5 and slide Kyle Anderson to the 4 in end of game situations or whenever needed.

#2 Seed: Team Neema (@findingneema23)

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

Our best ability is our ability to run. The team boasts two of the most athletic backcourt players in the NBA. Ja Morant is one of the best point guards in the league, and Edwards is a microwave offensively while also being a nightly threat. The pairing is backed up by Gary Payton II, who provides a lockdown defender to fill the gaps if defense is needed, as Edwards and Morant are both capable, but inconsistent defenders. At the wings we have length and shooting in Andrew Wiggins and Michael Porter Jr, the two juxtaposing one another in role. Wiggins provides game-changing defense along the wings  and Porter is one of the most efficient wings in the league. At the big, while there isn’t a ton of size, we are able to be versatile in our coverages in style of play. Kevon Looney and Brandon Clarke may not be the tallest bigs, but both provide strategic versatility and are great hustle bigs.

Our philosophy is to play with extreme pace. Having versatility across our lineup, this team can find a way to match up with any team in the conference. We can go big with Clarke and Looney together, or go small playing Wiggins or GP2 at the big position. Versatility, size and athleticism are extremely important, and the team still has the pieces to space the floor effectively. Our combination of size, speed and strength, while also having good shooting on the wings and defensive specialists, can help us lockup the more offensive focused teams, and outrun and outgun the teams that just can’t keep up.

#3 Seed: Team AJ (@NBA_Jeremy1)

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

The selling point for this team is versatility and athleticism. We’ll be really comfortable playing multiple styles offensively, typically at a fast speed with De’Aaron Fox running the point alongside a few other plus athletes. When we need to slow it down or score at the end of the games that shouldn’t be an issue either, as Devin Booker and Fox give us high level creation in the half court along with DeAndre Ayton’s presence as a play finisher. The biggest issue on offense is likely our lack of high end 3pt shooting, but everyone on the team is at least capable of making an open jumper so spacing shouldn’t be much of an issue in spite of that.

The versatility of our team translates to the defensive end as well. We have reliable options to defend at the POA (Jaden McDaniels, Bruce Brown), protect the rim (Ayton, McDaniels, Maxi Kleber), and defend wings (McDaniels, Reggie Bullock). Kleber off the bench gives us the option to play a 2nd big with Ayton, or as the 5 in smaller lineups depending on the matchup. We also don’t have many glaring weaknesses to attack or hunt on defense, as Fox is really the only questionable defender in the rotation and even he can provide resistance when locked in.

Overall our flexibility on both ends give us a lot of different looks we can throw at teams. We can get out in transition and put up points quickly with our athletes and ball handlers, but there’s also plenty of positional size and defense we can lean on as well. We can play whatever style is needed for a given matchup, and at the end of games we have two of the league’s best half court shot makers in Booker and Fox to take us home. 

#4 Seed: Team Tyler (@ProspectingNBA)

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

“It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward; how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! “ – Rocky Balboa

Championships are made through excellence and resilience. Playoff basketball is like a 12-round fight, trapped within a cage of ropes where survival is born through careful analysis and tactical precision. Weaknesses are hunted and edges are unraveled, bit by bit. In drafting this team I set out to build a roster defensively versatile with playoff-durable offense. Offensively, rather than emphasize spacing for the sake of three point attempts, the goal was to find skilled players with a multifaceted offensive game. 

Chis Paul is the greatest floor general of the modern era and will operate as a cooler counterpart to Jamal Murray’s shotmaking inferno. With Donte DiVincenzo and Dillon Brooks coming off the bench this backcourt is ready-made for any defensive matchup you throw at them with the skill, spacing and shotmaking needed to carry an effective offense.

In the frontcourt Steven Adams will pair as an excellent screen and roll big with Chris Paul, and while he may not have much of a scoring load, his screen setting, rebounding and rim protection will provide a baseline competence on that end. He’s an incredibly strong big who, at the very least, can stand the physical test of guarding the star big men of the league. 

Aaron Gordon is an incredibly versatile defensive piece to guard 3-5 and with the strength and vertical pop to sop up backup center minutes for this roster. Gordon is an effective offensive player when his role is properly limited and the surrounding offensive talent on this roster allows for that context. 

Finally, we get to Kevin Durant, the man himself. There is no greater tough shot-maker in the world, and no skill more important in playoff basketball. Our foundation of defensive toughness and versatility will make this team an incredibly tough out even when shots aren’t falling. Games are going to come down to the wire and when someone is shooting to win or go home, I’m taking Kevin Durant every time.

#5 Seed: Team Avinash (@100guaranteed)

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

This is certainly an unorthodox combination of talents, but the convergence of size and shooting could unlock another level of dominance. With premier shooting talents, strong slashers, and arguably 2 of the top 5 centers of the decade, there’s inherent versatility beyond what I can summarize here. The crux of the offense revolves around high-low action between two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Gobert has had a disappointing season, but much of that can be attributed to a suboptimal context- he hasn’t been able to attack the rim at requisite levels by virtue of Finch’s more free-flowing offense. He should thrive on a team with above-average playmakers at every position, most notably Jokic. 

Operating at the high post or top of the key while Gobert stays near the basket, Jokic can create open looks for Gobert down low, kick to one of the virtuoso shooters on the perimeter, or find one of the strong wing slashers for a quick 45 cut. I decided to ultimately draft Gobert not because of his defensive prowess, but simply because I cannot fathom a reality where a team can effectively shut down any sort of Jokic-Gobert joint action, especially considering the accompanying shooters/slashers at hand. Guarding two seven footers is inherently difficult, but Jokic’s guard-like skillset makes this proposition even more wildly difficult.

The slashing/shooting on this team should be considered as well. Conley, Bane, and Poole are all relatively versatile shooters with effective pull-up jumpers, but they are also dynamic handlers in space. With strong finishing packages and elusive handles, each of these players are solid self creators who can thrive playing off one another and alongside two roll threats. The sheer slashing competencies of this lineup, especially with C&S maestros/strong wings Okogie and Josh Green, should enable even more versatility to complement the two seven footers.

Defensively, let’s not overthink this. Bane and Conley are both strong, well-above average defenders, while Okogie and Green have garnered reputations as bendy (in regards to screen nav), lockdown wings. Jokic’s strength can enable him to cover 4s decently well, and we all know what Gobert is capable of. This is a fascinatingly strong defensive lineup, but in the interest of word count, I think the transcendent, unprecedented nature of the offense needs to be emphasized. If you’re a bit wary of these players, I’ll end with this: I cannot remember a single 5 man lineup with as many possible PnR permutations. The shooting/slashing/playmaking/size combination of skills is truly unprecedented; teams with inadequate size or versatile-coverage personnel will indubitably get cooked.

#6 Seed: Team Corban aka Monta’s Inferno (@corbannba)

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kaminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kaminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

For playoff basketball, among many keys for success, two ring paramount: quality defense and crunchtime scoring. With Monta’s Inferno, both boxes are checked off. On the offensive side, we have the second leading scorer in the league as well as the one ranked sixth in assists (Luka). In addition to that, we have one of the greatest three point shooters of all time, a terror coming off pin down actions (Klay) AND a player who, among being an efficient scorer, has made the most threes as a rookie in NBA history (Keegan). Off the pine we have a proven, microwave scorer across both guard spots (Monk) and a big man who can get baskets in a hurry and is equally adept taking the ball to the hole or shooting from outside (Wood). Even the players who don’t specialize in scoring specifically bring other attributes to the table that will elevate the overall offense, from rebounding to additional playmaking (Green/Kaminga)

On  defense, Green is the lynchpin at the 5 with his communication and ability to anchor the backline, and he is surrounded by positional length at the other four positions. Every player but Luka is at least competent on that end of the floor, and with stronger players surrounding him, Luka would be assigned the least threatening wing player to match up with. With Kaminga’s ability to swallow up smaller players defensively, he would be the assigned player on guards, where he can use his length and strength to mitigate their effectiveness. Sheer size may be a slight weakness for Monta’s Inferno but the physicality, length, and positional flexibility 1-4 is something my team possesses in spades, and I feel that our squad is at the very least serviceable on that end of the floor. 

Monta’s Inferno takes after its namesake and is two things for certain: a bucket, and a problem. There will be precious few chances to rest on defense against our squad; we are guaranteed to make you work. Defensively my opponents may score *some* but it won’t be easy, and it will ultimately be a losing effort. In this thought exercise Monta’s Inferno has a top 10 offensive and a top 15 defense, and those ingredients will be just enough to produce a winning recipe.

#7 Seed: Team Charlie (@klaytheist11)

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

The pitch for this team is ultimate spacing/small-ball motion offense with a center who can take maximum advantage of a clear lane and open post while finding cutters and shooters. Steph-Sabonis PNR could create 5-out offensive looks, with three positive floor spacers off the ball. Secondary creation somewhat lacking, but all three of Huerter/KCP/Barnes can be handoff guys with Sabonis through motion looks.

Payne provides a capable replacement ballhandler, one who can shoot enough and manage PNRs with both Sabonis and Reid. The defense is lacking on the whole, but Sabonis can play at the level and in drop to maximize his skill with his hands. Reid can do much of the same, and Barnes provides a big body deterrent off the weakside if the big is at the level of the screen.

This team may not have a ton of defense, but we can space and pace with the best of them.

The post Swish Theory Roundtable: Playoff Remix appeared first on Swish Theory.

Our second roundtable will be focusing on just that: if you ran a front office, how would you establish your draft philosophy? To keep things simple for now, we’re placing at one end of the spectrum drafting for fit and the other drafting purely for best player. Our participants picked their philosophy from a menu of five options:

1. Best Player Available Only
2. Preference for Best Player
3. Equal Consideration for Best Player and Best Fit
4. Preference for Best Fit
5. Best Fit Only

While our crew definitely leaned more in one direction than the other, there remain a wide range of opinions as to why and to what degree, with one writer even taking the nuclear option on the prompt.

Without further ado, see below for how Swish Theory contributors put their draft philosophy into context.

Chip Jones: 1 – BPA Only

Few things frustrate me more than seeing a prospect I loved stuck at the end of the bench as the team that just drafted them fails to find them minutes. But as much as it hurts me to admit, a simple statistical breakdown of previous drafts strongly suggests that teams should focus on drafting the best player available regardless of team fit.

We want to focus on players who have a.) played enough time in the NBA that we can at least somewhat confidently decide how good they really are, and b.) have been drafted recently enough that the NBA they played in is similar to the current NBA environment. I think six full seasons is a good enough sample size for requirement A, and let’s stick to players drafted in 2010 or later as a requirement for B.

We need to gauge players by degrees of performance: starters, role players, and busts. And we’re going to need some rules to make these groupings objective:

• To qualify as a starter the player must have 6 seasons in which they started at least 50% of the games they were available.
• For role players we’ll drop that requirement to 6 seasons of at least 15 minutes per game.
• Players who fail to meet either requirement will be placed into the bust group.

In our 2010 to 2016 window there were 7 drafts with a total of 420 players selected.

Now, 105 of those players were taken between picks 46 and 60. And of those 105 players, 43 have never logged a single NBA minute, while only 4 meet our role player requirements and only a single player (Isaiah Thomas) qualified as a starter. Given that these players are so unlikely to make any impact whatsoever it feels wrong to factor in their outcomes with the other 315 drafted players. So for the purpose of this exercise we won’t be including those selected after pick 45.

Now narrowing in on what we can consider high draft picks, let’s analyze our remaining 315 NBA hopefuls. Among our sample, 62 (or 20%) went on to become NBA starters, giving us an average of 9 starters per draft. A further 72 or 23% have contributed as role players, an average of 10 players a year. With that in mind, less than half of the first 45 players selected in a given draft will actually stick in the league long-term. We can go one step further by separating players selected in the lottery from those taken in the mid to late 1st and early 2nd round.

Of our 62 starters, a strong majority were lotto selections at 39 (63%). With that in mind, just 1 in 10 players taken between picks 15 and 45 will go on to become starters. When it comes to our 72 role players, exactly half heard their name called in the lottery. That number means roughly 1 in 6 of our non-lottery sample size will enjoy a successful NBA career as a role player.

Draft picks hold a lot of value, and given that less than half of the players selected in the first 45 picks end up providing long-term impact, it feels unwise to limit your pool of potential picks to only those who fit a specific team need.

Neema Djavadzadeh: 3 – BPA/Fit Mix

It’s hard to say BPA past the first 4-5 guys in a draft most of the time, because after you get to a certain point, a lot of the players are very similar in terms of impact on the court. Where they differ is their individual skill sets, and some intangibles that as an armchair scout, it is hard to know about. I believe that all 30 teams have (and should have) different draft philosophies because all 30 teams have different personnel and priorities. “KYP” or “Know Your Personnel” is often used when talking about who to put on the court, but I think it applies come draft time too.

For example, if your team just drafted a scoring guard last year with a high pick, it may not be a great idea to draft another scoring guard right after that. Additionally, say you don’t have any coaches who are primed for big man development. Drafting a raw big man who may be considered BPA in the late lottery might not be the best selection for your team. At the end of the day it is about building a long-term roster, and if you don’t see how other important pieces on your team can mesh with a potential draftee, or how you can develop him to do so, then it may not be worth drafting said player.

As I said earlier, I think when you get to a certain point, a lot of the players are similar in impact, and it’s about finding which player will have the most opportunity to make an impact on your team. That’s why I believe in focusing more on tiers than on specific rankings on players. If you have a guy who is a tier ahead of everyone else left on your board but may not fit your roster or personnel immediately, go ahead and draft him! He’s clearly the best player available and you consider him to be at a different level than other prospects, so it’s worth it! But if everybody left on your board is of the same tier, it’s good to look for who fits your team’s personnel best, not just on the court right now, but with the locker room, with the coaching staff, and the team you envision building in the future. More often than not, the Best Player Available is whoever is the best player for your team, not who is the most talented.

Larry Golden: 2 – BPA Preferred

This question brings up many thoughts depending on context. For instance, if I am the Boston Celtics I am probably going to pick a prospect that has the right skillset to help our team today. But if I’m the Indiana Pacers I may take a swing at BPA to see if I can knock that pick out of the park.

I just truly think your organization’s draft process should be dictated by your current player and team’s success. If you already have a high volume scoring guard why draft another? I think you want to complement your roster with skillsets that offer different styles of play, but coincides with all your players. I also think you have to take into account what does your player development department do well? Have you noticed that your players are improving in shooting metrics month to month or every couple months? If so, why not take a shot on a player like a Jeremy Sochan, for instance? Choose a player that has the intangibles and displays intelligence on both end of the floor, but maybe the shooting could be better.

Your development staff over time will show you what they are good at improving in your drafted players. Why not use that data to help you decipher between BPA and fit?

Avinash Chauhan: 1 – BPA Only

My issue with the BPA versus best fit debate is that there are implicit provisions that are a bit underdiscussed. When drafting for best player available, there needs to be a requisite level of organizational trust in the ranking capacity of each team. The framework of analysis needs to be robust, in that a successful draft scouting mechanism can be replicated every season. Of course, this is highly dependent on the organization, and may not be possible as industry standard.

But on the contrary, proponents of the “best fit” proposition suggest a baseline of roster continuity – the foundation of the team will remain for the foreseeable future. While roster continuity has improved over the last few years, this is still quite a relevant confounding factor. “Best fit” also requires a requisite level of organizational trust in its ranking capacity: you need to trust that your projections are pristine, and then also compare prospect projections to determine which prospect would most effectively mesh with your team’s current talent.

So, we’ve established the following: BPA relies on 1.) Trust in the team’s eval. Best fit, meanwhile, relies on all of 1.) Trust in the team’s eval, 2.) Deciding which of the projected evals would mesh best with the core, and 3.) Relative faith in the roster for the near-future. This is the basis for my fundamental pitch of BPA: it’s the probabilistically correct decision. For the sake of the year-to-year variability in the league, give me the option with fewer variables.

Fit is a nebulous concept, but I’m defining fit here as team fit – considering how well the team can integrate the drafted player into their lineup. Considering the developmental strengths and training bandwidth of the organization seems relatively intuitive: for example, the Raptors and Spurs have demonstrated a propensity for developing shooting in wings (let’s ignore that shooting dev is perhaps the most “elastic” skill acquisition endeavor). Still, I don’t consider developmental strengths a true function of fit because it’s personnel-dependent and thus not organizationally intrinsic.

Additionally, I personally believe that feasible skill dev is casually deterministic. In other words, players showcase varying propensities to develop skills such as shooting, and it is up to the organization to find those players and tap into their developmental strengths to allow those players to become the best (shooting/skilled) versions of themselves. As an example, Kawhi Leonard, often considered one of the great skill development cases, had high FT% + a ton of self-created long 2’s, indicating a propensity to develop off-the-dribble shooting later. Judging the skill acquisition and refinement potential of prospects seems far more BPA-esque, especially since this process is similarly not intrinsic to each team. 

Two more concepts that make me such a firm believer in BPA:

First, I think it’s hard to truly manufacture poor team fits in the draft. From the CP3-Harden rockets to ‘21 Nets, the idea that “there’s only one ball” is incredibly ignorant of the lineup versatility enabled by the sheer concentration of talent. I think you can probably pair any combination of players who can consistently draw defensive rotations. There are reasonable limits (don’t construct the 2022 Lakers), but oftentimes the well-roundedness of a team to meet the minimum offensive and defensive thresholds of goodness can be attained in free agency. Also, while there are some extreme cases (taking a traditionally low Expected-Value archetype high in the draft while already employing a high-level player of that archetype, like taking an undersized guard top 5 on a team with Trae Young), even those cases tend to work out. Darius Garland was drafted a year after Collin Sexton, and Anfernee Simons was drafted to a team with Dame and CJ. Five years later, they are both the lead guards for their respective teams. The concept of constantly drafting the best player available and seeing what sticks may not be the most asset-productive move in the short-term, but ultimately the players that adjust the best to the NBA ecosystem end up returning far over expected value. Note that I am not supporting a Darwinian-aligned view of player dev, but instead optimistically believe in the culmination of the intrinsic “dawg” + existing bundles of potential skill. Another side note: dev-locking (ex. Josh Christopher right now for the Rockets) happens too but that’s usually a byproduct of drafting too many players in a single cycle.

Finally, predicting skill dev is extremely hard. Especially in this era of ball-handling wings and position-less schema, there are increasing cases of outlier development and miscalculations of potential. That does not mean you conflate “take the best player available” with “shoot for the moon and find the next Giannis!!”; Instead, scouting departments need to research the underlying skill, neuropsychological, and athletic traits of outlier development, and find players who rank highest based on a holistic evaluation of their potential. Taking the highest ceiling is not the same thing as taking the best player – and it’s incredibly reductive to make that assumption. BPA can be an innately nuanced process without considering team-context. Consistently drafting players who have the highest probabilities of commanding defensive rotations may be a personal philosophy at its core, but I truly believe BPA is more probabilistically viable than conducting the same exact eval process and then strictly trusting your projections to conduct an additional decision-making process that determines which of the players would best fit the current roster. That doesn’t even include the overlying “best-fit” assumption of roster continuity.

Tyler Wilson: 0 – None of the Above

I have found the debate surrounding the strategy of drafting for BPA vs. fit to be, generally speaking, lacking nuance. I really don’t like thinking about drafting through this lens because the answer is so dependent on context: every team around the league has a different set of confounding factors that alter who is the best selection at each draft slot and boiling that calculus down to BPA or Fit feels hyper-simplified to a fault. 

What do these terms even mean? What definition of “best” are you using? Is it the player with the highest ceiling, the greatest odds of hitting a positive outcome or the lowest odds of failing? How do you define “fit”? Is it on-court fit with the players on the roster, the fit within the timeline for contention of the team, the fit with what the team is best developing or the fit with other core pieces already in place? 

Basketball scouting and team building at large is a beautiful mess of inputs unique to each team, trying to boil that down into six letters seems insane to me. Yes, there is nuance and substance that can be brought to this topic, many of my colleagues writing here have done so, but is this really a conversation we need to have every draft cycle? This debate writ large is one of people attempting to cram a basketball worldview into a three letter word that means… nothing? 

It doesn’t have to be this way. There are so many more interesting and informative ways to talk about team building. There are 30 different teams you can develop substantive and unique opinions on, there is no reason to project one overarching draft philosophy to every team around the league. Why do we do this to ourselves? Why am I writing for this roundtable? Why am I yelling at my keyboard in the dead of night?

For nearly every draft pick, the growth into a functional NBA player is done in the league, within the context of the organization that drafts them. The best player available to a team is the player that will provide the largest on-court impact over the course of their career. That inherently depends on their fit within the franchise, from the coaching staff to roster construction and player development staff (on an even broader level, the willingness of said player to remain with the team and city that drafted them). BPA means Best Player Available FOR THAT FRANCHISE. You can’t separate the two, they are dependent upon one another. We’re all just saying the same thing in different ways.

AJ Carter: 2 – BPA Preferred

There’s definitely arguments for both sides in terms of drafting for the best player available vs. drafting for fit, but I lean mostly towards drafting BPA. At the end of the day you’re looking to get the best value possible with your draft pick, and in most cases taking the guys at the absolute top of your board is the best way to do that. Even if the fit is questionable and you have to make a tough decision down the line, the most important thing is to take a player you think is going to be good and you can figure the rest out from there. 

That doesn’t mean that fit just doesn’t matter at all, however, as that’s inherently tied to getting the player with the best chance to pan out for your team specifically. For example if you’re a team with a deep guard rotation full of established players, drafting the high upside yet raw 19 year old point guard might not be the best idea if you aren’t in a position to get them on the floor and let them play through mistakes – even if you’re a big believer in said player’s talent. 

It generally matters less with older and more polished prospects that already know what type of player they’re going to be in the NBA compared to younger prospects that need a certain type of developmental structure. So at the end of the day, yes, you should be drafting the best player available, just through the lens of your specific team’s structure and developmental context.

Danny Johnson: 2 – BPA Preferred

Like many instances in life, there’s so many factors for front office personnel to evaluate draft-wise. In such instances, applying general blanket statements is both unfair and irresponsible. With that being said, I’d lean towards the “best player available” side of this argument, but it’s largely circumstantial.

I believe that drafts are almost never won on the night of the draft, but they can be lost. Most instances where drafts are lost on draft night stems from sacrificing “value” to reach for what teams perceive to be the best fit. As we know, value is far from linear in the NBA Draft. The difference between pick #10 and pick #15 is way larger than the difference between pick #40 and pick #45. The larger the margins are of perceived value, the less teams should be willing to take chances with a fit-based selection. A recent example of this that comes to mind is back from the 2020 NBA Draft. Following the magical ride that was the Bubble Suns, the front office and ownership felt it was time to compete (and they were right), so they went out and traded for perennial All-Star point guard Chris Paul to fortify their starting lineup that now looked like this:

Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, DeAndre Ayton

A rock solid five. Looking over the bench, they had options to fill out the guard and wing spots with Cameron Johnson, Cameron Payne, Abdel Nader, E’Twaun Moore, Jevon Carter, and Langston Galloway. Were holdovers from the 2019-2020 roster in Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky enough to stabilize the frontcourt? James Jones and the Phoenix Suns front office didn’t seem to think so. When draft night came around the Phoenix Suns selected Maryland big man Jalen Smith with the 10th overall pick, a surprise to many at the time as Smith typically fell somewhere in the 20s on most evaluators boards. When asked the next morning whether it was a fit-based selection, Jones had this to say:

“It’s always about fit for us. You know it’s never just purely about talent. You cultivate talent, you build, you mold, you shape talent until you find the fit that you’re looking for. This team, the way we’re constructed, the way we play, we tend towards fit and if that means taking a guy that no one thinks should be taken at a slot, we live with that cause we know our ultimate goal is to build the best team.” 

(per the Doug & Wolf show on Arizona Sports radio)

Phoenix went on to basically punt on Jalen Smith. Trading him (less than 16 months after drafting him) and a 2nd round pick to the Pacers to reacquire Torrey Craig, whom they had traded for during the 2020-21 season and let walk in free agency just a few months prior. I apologize to Suns fans in advance, but the player many had thought made sense with the 10th selection at the time was Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton because of his clear talent. Outside of Haliburton, there were a few other guys that could’ve helped in Devin Vassell, Cole Anthony, Saddiq Bey, Tyrese Maxey, and Jaden McDaniels. Instead, management decided to take their swing at a big man in a class that was widely considered to be thin at the position. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, but most would agree at the time that the selection was an iffy one made to attempt to plug a hole on the roster.

But make no mistake: being able to effectively deploy the “best player available” strategy is far from straightforward. Even if you had a tangible way to determine the actual best basketball player at the time of draft night, you’d still fail to get the best player a majority of the time. This is because development is far from linear and there’s no handbook on exactly how to maximize a player’s potential.

With that being said, front offices still have the ability to evaluate talent and make their best inferences. There’s a reason we often see a largely-consensus opinion towards the top of big boards, and, no, that reason is not always media group-think. It’s because there’s prospects that come out each year and clearly have these rare, sometimes generational abilities to do certain things on the basketball court. It only makes sense that I stay in the 2020 draft class for an example. This team’s two leading scorers a season ago were 24-and-25-year-old point guards, both of whom the team had control of for at least two more seasons. This team was the Charlotte Hornets who sat at pick #3 in a class that was considered to have a fairly consensus big-3. When it came their time to pick, the only member of the big-3 left was point guard LaMelo Ball, and they didn’t hesitate to side with the talent despite the current roster makeup, selecting the only player from the draft class who’s made an All-Star game thus far. When teams have opportunities to draft players with these special abilities, you take the talent and figure out the fit later (especially because if you have the opportunity to select these guys it normally means you weren’t great the year before anyways, so who cares if the fit doesn’t make the most sense at the moment). 

However, like I alluded to earlier, I believe the prompt is rather circumstantial. As drafts progress, the talent disparity becomes thinner and thinner, sometimes to the point where evaluators can spend weeks on end focused on two different players, but still end up unsure who the better prospect is. These are the instances in which fit matters. Again, I’ll stay in the 2020 NBA Draft for an example. Tyrell Terry was a blossoming freshman at the University of Stanford who showed flashes of brilliance with the ball in his hands. He became a draft darling for many, even pushing towards some people’s top 10. With him still sitting on the board at the end of the first round, the Memphis Grizzlies decided to pass knowing that they already had a lead guard who was dynamic with the ball in his hands named Ja Morant. What they wanted was someone who could provide value in areas that were perceived to be Morant’s weakest. So the Grizzlies decided to take a sharpshooting, defensive-minded guard that also fit in wonderfully age-wise with Memphis’ “window,” his name was Desmond Bane.

Gannon Rice: 3 – BPA/Fit Mix

At the end of the day, the goal in the draft is to select the player that generates the most positive impact for YOUR team, with your specific infrastructure (system, personnel, developmental team, etc.). Each pick is an estimate of the combined value of the player’s raw ability and improvement indicators (BPA), along with your team’s ability to mold and integrate that player into one that can reach their highest potential (fit). 

The unpredictability of a player’s outcome is what makes drafting perfect a near impossibility. You have to make a decision based on the stability of your team, and the chances that drafting someone with the idea that they would fit with your infrastructure now is even a possibility 3-5 years later. If you have a coach who’s on the hot seat and has a specific system he plays with, drafting a player who you hope is able to get in that system probably isn’t the best choice. Knowing your title- and playoff-contention windows is critical when making a choice between two players with different developmental curves. 

In the short term, when looking at the development of the player in the first couple years, how he will be prioritized is monumental, and this is through both from how the coaches utilize him and how much the developmental team can work on him. There may not be adequate scenarios to draft a player if you believe their positive impact to your team relies on specific playstyles and developmental work, when your team may have players with conflicting archetypes and needing of development as well. That’s where the importance of stability is so crucial to knowing what may change in the future that can open up or close the doors for the prospect you want. 

Every team in the NBA has a unique roster, culture, success window, developmental team, and coaching staff. Those operate in distinct but connective ways, and the best way to make the right pick is having a full understanding of the capabilities of each one of the components. An aspect I haven’t touched on is off the court, as you’re not just drafting a basketball player, you are drafting the person. Keeping that human element in mind will only assist you to make the right choice!

Matt Powers: 2 – BPA Preferred

I am all for best player available, with the assumption that we have the broadest possible definition of “best player” and adequate resources to support that player’s playing style. Naturally, the earlier you pick in the draft the more flexibility you will have to accommodate this, with more restrictions towards the end of the order with win-now teams. However, due to the unpredictable nature of the draft, extreme, unexpected values per pick may pop up at any given run of selections, and having a “BPA-first” approach allows you to potentially find a very good player no matter where your selections land.

The fit part comes in as there are often, and maybe just short of always, not just one good player who falls unexpectedly, but multiple. Take, for example, Detroit’s acquisition of pick #13 in the 2022 draft. On my personal board I had both AJ Griffin and Jalen Duren as extremely positive values for that pick slot, with Griffin a preference within that same tier. While AJG would be a good fit with Detroit as well (he’s good), Duren’s potential as a lob threat and pick and roll partner for Cade Cunningham made him a top 5 option for me on a Pistons-specific board.

Basketball is an extremely dynamic sport where as good players become great ones they almost always naturally improve in their fit with the rest of your team. It is very difficult to find an outright bad fit among any two or three All-Star level players, but due to the delicate nature of player development, there are indeed trade-offs for giving one player more reps in a certain context than another. Great players often make their own path to being great, but there have been countless examples of misused players on first contracts that then figure it out in a more appropriate context with another team later. Landing a star from any given spot in the draft goes a long way to improving your org’s title odds, but increasing the odds of a player finding his fit regardless of whether he becomes a true star or not has its value as well. The secondary benefits (chemistry, freedom of creativity within a given lane, clarity of role) of young players complementing each other as well should not be ignored.

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