In November, I set out to explore what’s been happening to Klay Thompson’s shot post-injury. I had my hunches and needed the data to tell me what my eyes were seeing, and 1,298 threes later I had my answer.
When I first wrote that article, I had always intended to circle back and evaluate both my conclusions and predictions. With over 200 threes on the record since, and Klay hitting a scorching 41% of his 10.9 attempts per game over his last 21, I decided it was time to dive back in.
Let’s explore the conclusions I drew, and how they might explain his recent hot stretch.
Set Shot Returning to Normal
When charting his set looks, a few things became apparent: he makes a habit of slow starts regardless of injuries and gets hot as the year goes on, and his post-injury shot profile shows a decrease in set shots.
On the first note, Klay was sitting at a 16/54 mark on set shots to begin this season (29.6%). After two straight years starting 3/25 on set threes, it was clear a trend was emerging, and that the hot streak was coming. Little did I know it was already upon us.
From 11/16 to 1/10, Thompson hit 52 of 114 set threes, a sturdy 48.2% clip. As he gets his legs underneath him, the shot has looked purer. What’s also encouraging is the hustle he’s put in to find these easier shots, despite large absences from Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins over the past couple of months.
Thompson has seen a slight uptick in set threes as an overall share of his looks, from 49% in the first 43 post-injury games to 52% in the last 21. He’s been working harder to relocate, giving second and third efforts to get open off the ball. Some increased confidence hasn’t hurt either.
Near 50% is likely an unsustainable mark going forwards, but if Klay can keep that share of shots above 50% and continue to work for relocations, he could stay well above 40% the rest of the year. Golden State calling plays like the ones you see below wouldn’t hurt either:
Positive/Negative Momentum Shooting Holds True (For Now)
One of the more glaring data points I discovered in the previous edition was the split between positive and negative momentum shots. I defined step-back, off-the-dribble left, and movement left shots as negative momentum. Running threes, off-the-dribble right, and movement right are positive momentum. The basic theory is that Thompson’s right Achilles tear limits his ability to use that leg as the interior plant foot when taking movement shots, limiting the overall strength on these looks. Yet he has favored them more than ever before.
All has held true so far.
With an even 100 movement shots on the book in the last 21 games, the one change of note has come with the total distribution. 55 of those shots were negative, and 45 positive. That is an improvement on the 63-37 split we saw in his previous 43 post-injury games. Given the margin and total sample size, it could be a collecting error that may return over time. It could also rebound closer to the 50-50 pre-injury split as Klay is further removed from the Achilles tear. Only time will tell.
Less surprising are the shooting splits on these shots. Thompson has hit only 15 of 55 negative momentum looks (27.3%), good for 0.82 points per shot. His positive momentum looks have gone in at a 48.9% clip for 1.47 points per shot. The difference in results is only becoming more drastic as the data piles up.
You can see the biomechanical reasons that could potentially explain this below. When Klay deads his momentum going left, that spring comes from the right leg, and he can’t generate a lot of lift. Going right, he can use both legs equally (if not favoring the left), and thus you have the difference in results.
It’s also good to see that the momentum right shots are holding quite strong for Klay in his post-injury era. He’s holding a 13-for-28 mark on OTD/movement shots going to the right in the past 21 games, including some massive buckets drawn up from set plays. The most beneficial look for him comes out of motion strong, where a big passes into the post and screens for a shooter flaring towards the corner (when going on the right side of the court). You can see those looks at work here:
Finally, we come to our last area of interest.
Mixed Bag Off-The-Dribble
I wrote in my last piece that Klay is leaning on his off-the-dribble looks going left, possibly as a form of comfort or a result of the changed personnel from his pre-injury days. After another 43 OTD looks on the record, the jury is still out on why his tendencies have changed.
33 of those 43 shots have come going to the left, a 76.7% share that mirrors the 73% mark I previously charged. He’s also taken a slight uptick in the total share of his shots coming OTD to the left, from 14% to 15.6%. Some of this could be explained by recent injuries, and the need to force up more shots than usual.
What hasn’t gone up are the results going left. 24.2% of his OTD lefty looks have gone in since we first checked, where it sat at 35.9%. Pre-injury, he hit those shots 46% of the time over the full season, his highest mark on any kind of three. If we’ve seen other shots return to normal, while these continue to decline, it may be time to consider whether it ever returns to pre-injury levels.
The great news is that Klay has found some confidence in his OTD righty looks. At the time of writing the first article, Klay hadn’t taken an off-the-dribble righty three in his first 11 games. In the 21 games since, he’s taken 10 and split them down the middle. Does he read Swish Theory? Is he just finding his confidence? Both?
It’s great to see results improving on that end, and hopefully further solidifying the data we have to go on. A 15/29 mark on his post-injury OTD looks going right is nothing to sneeze at, given how consistent his data points have been so far.
What Can We Learn From All This?
Klay is heating up, and he’s doing it in sustainable ways.
He’s trending up on the set shots, as he usually does. Not only are the numbers of his positive/negative momentum shots remaining similar, but he’s starting to take more of the quality looks we’ve seen on the film. Thompson is also doing all of this while ratcheting up his attempts in an effort to offset Curry and Wiggins missing time.
In just two short months, Klay has gone back to resembling the perimeter shooter we saw down the stretch in last year’s championship run. Let’s hope that his shots continue to fall, and I’ll continue to track them all as the playoff chase heats up. We’ll check back in at the end of the year.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
Related Articles
