Quality basketball analysis isn’t about being ‘right,’ judging the means by the end result, but we here at Swish Theory are frequently, let’s say, ahead of the curve. Whether it’s our breakdowns of less heralded draft prospects or a list of bold predictions for an upcoming NBA season, our writers consistently use existing data to predict future trends.
This is not one of those articles. The basketball world just saw Trayce Jackson-Davis follow up a strong outing against the Portland Trail Blazers with 29 minutes of shot-blocking, rebounding, rim-running excellence against the Boston Celtics on national television. So did his teammates and coaching staff; in postgame, Steve Kerr stated Jackson-Davis will be a consistent part of his rotation going forward, while Klay Thompson gave the rookie a new nickname:
Forget finding a role, Trayce Jackson-Davis just found one in front of the whole country.
So, I’m not exactly breaking news here. But in fairness, we tried to tell you. Our Charlie Cummings had this to say the day after the Dubs selected TJD late in the second round: “A clear path to a rotation spot, great value, and an experienced winning player on a cheap multi-year deal. What else could you want from the 57th pick?”
What was that clear path to a rotation spot Charlie identified so accurately? It started with Jackson-Davis being, by far, the most athletic Golden State big, the strongest interior presence on both ends of the court. Unlike the increasingly limited Kevon Looney and the perimeter-oriented Dario Šarić, TJD is a fearsome rim-runner, the first one the Warriors have employed in some time.
Not only is he an alley-oop partner for Chris Paul off the bench, but he’s already a consistent beneficiary of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson drawing two defenders (they tend to do that):
TJD is 6’9″ with a 7’1″ wingspan, can finish with either hand and has good but not extraterrestrial leaping ability. So, he’s not prime Dwight Howard, but he’s a legitimate threat. That’s more than enough when playing with the Splash Brothers.
See, we’re not totally past simple, positional math. Trayce plays the 5, so he’s guarded by the opposing 5, in this case Al Horford. When Trayce screens for Klay Thompson here, Horford jumps at the all-time great shooter, who hits his lefty big on a roll to the basket. The only thing that stands between the Warriors rookie and two points not a center, but Derrick White, one of the great rim-protecting guards the NBA has seen, but still just 6’4″. Jackson-Davis finishes right over the top:
TJD makes it look easy — and for him, it might be — but his fellow bigs aren’t able to take full advantage of the looks the Splash Bros create. Better yet, the lefty’s ability to finish at the rim may be the jelly to Golden State’s peanut butter, but the sandwich comes with a side.
On the very next possession, the Warriors flow into an identical action. Jackson-Davis hands it off to Thompson, who hits his rook right back on the roll. Derrick White is prepared though, and meets TJD with the proper respect, but it hardly matters because Jackson-Davis is already hitting a cutter for an easy layup:
This comes as no surprise, as the Indiana University product was dropping dimes consistently in Bloomington:
TJD’s lack of playing time to start the season infuriated many Warriors fans, and it’s easy to see why. The 23-year-old hasn’t exactly added many new skills, and his existing ones have translated predictably. In the words of excellent Warriors writer Joe Viray: “He’s a fundamentally sound screener who can make things immediately difficult for defenders at the point of attack; he’s nimble and mobile enough to force defenders to have to make quick decisions; his athleticism and above-the-rim capabilities make him a credible finishing threat.”
All of that was certainly on the pre-draft scouting report — and hey, it’s why the Warriors picked him — as Viray continues: “On a team that currently goes to the rim at the lowest rate among 30 teams…Jackson-Davis is an infusion of new possibilities the Warriors have yet to explore this season.”
TJD doesn’t have to be perfect to create the rim pressure the Dubs have been missing this season. And he’s not. He’s still learning how to time his rolls to the rim; on this one, a potential lob is erased because Jackson-Davis is simply too slow getting out of his screen and then doesn’t sprint to the rim…
…but his mere existence on the court makes up for the occasional rookie mistake. Jackson-Davis loves to sprint the floor in transition, and is tough for his matchups to keep up with. That creates a cascading effect here, where Horford lags behind the youngster, forcing Jayson Tatum to respect a rim-running threat. Thus, Tatum is poorly positioned to recover to Jonathan Kuminga, who catches the ball with an immediate advantage to drive to the rim (where he smokes a finger-roll):
This is TJD’s appeal, an ability to create pressure on the rim both in traditional settings, like your standard pick-and-roll, or in chaos: Golden State’s movement offense or transition. Hopefully, we see some more of this too:
The best part of that play? Jackson-Davis was slightly late in rotating over to the rim; Brown hit the paint before he did. Yet, “late for the help, early for the poster” did not apply here. Rim protectors are afforded leeway when they possess the athletic gifts Jackson-Davis does — a well-positioned rim protector who can’t jump is little more than an oversized traffic cone. Once again, TJD doesn’t have to be the perfect rookie to impact this Warriors roster; he just has to be himself.
Thanks to his fluidity at 6’9″, Jackson-Davis hasn’t just shown potential as a help-side rim protector, but when playing drop defense as well. His hips are much quicker, his feet much more nimble than his counterparts in Šarić and Looney, and thus, he can play closer to the level of the screen while giving up little on the back-end. He is not Brook Lopez, whose size and strength repel drivers from the rim and erase offensive-rebounding opportunities, nor is he Draymond Green, whose anticipation and hands allow him to play between two attackers seamlessly.
Yet, over the last two games, Jackson-Davis has made it clear he’s not going to bleed points as the last line of defense for the Dubs. Here, he meets deadly pull-up shooter Anfernee Simons outside the paint but is unmoved by Simons’ crossover, forcing the explosive guard to take a sweeping lefty hook, which DeAndre Ayton ultimately puts back:
This play results in another bucket, but the process and movement skills are undeniable. TJD meets Jayson Tatum at the arc, who throws an in-n-out at the young big. Jackson-Davis closes then opens his hips instantly to stick with Tatum, who burrows into his chest. Jackson-Davis remains straight up through the contact, not fouling and forcing a tough floater that bangs in off the backboard:
The rookie beats one of the NBA’s best drivers to the spot, avoids fouling, and contests a tough floater that really had little business falling. Jackson-Davis has put a lot of positives on tape in his last two games, seemingly earning him a spot in the rotation after 47 minutes of play resulted in 24 points, 21 boards, and four blocks on 11-16 shooting. Yet, that defensive rep on an MVP candidate might be the most telling play he made. This dude is going to be just fine.
The case for TJD the NBA Draft prospect was not hard to make. He could move, he could pass, he could score around the rim, and he displayed those qualities in spades during four seasons at Indiana. Unfortunately, the case against him was obvious as well, and 29 NBA teams bought it, some of them twice: 6’9″, couldn’t shoot, and four seasons at Indiana.
Yet, it’s that first batch of qualities that’s shining through in The Bay. Jackson-Davis is 6’9″, perhaps undersized for a big, but he’s a bouncy, active 6’9″ with long arms, ambidextrous finishing touch, and fearlessness as a shot-blocker. And hey, it doesn’t matter if you can’t shoot when your shots are dunks and layups.
Trayce Jackson-Davis fits like a glove on the Golden State Warriors. But that’s not news, is it?
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