It was a hectic day for the Golden State Warriors roster.
Chris Paul is now in Golden State. Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and Ryan Rollins are in Washington along with some protected picks. And now Golden State attempts to realign its timeline, starting with a draft in which they added three players in the first round, second, and undrafted free agency. Let’s take a deeper look into the three newest Warriors, and how they fit into the current roster.
Brandin Podziemski
It felt like all eyes were on this pick to get a true sense of how this new-look front office would operate. And they did not disappoint.
After a rough freshman season at Illinois, Brandin Podziemski transferred to Santa Clara after Jalen Williams made himself a lottery pick and left huge shoes to fill. Podz was equally dynamic in his own right: his 10.0 BPM mark was the second-highest amongst all underclassmen. Only Brandon Miller eclipsed that mark, the only college player drafted in the top 7 picks last night.
The method by which the Curly-Headed Assassin came into his production was unique for guards. He was far and away the most prolific rebounding guard in this draft (perhaps in several years), racking up a 21.0% defensive rebounding rate and 10.3 boards per 75 possessions. He’s a hustler on the defensive end through and through, and it jumps out on the tape.
I really enjoy the technical aspects of his defensive game. He’s not a shutdown guy on the perimeter by any means, but does a great job at keeping people in front of him, using his active hands for steals without fouling while breaking up passing lanes on and off the ball. Considering the kind of point-of-attack defenders that Golden State has, I think he can do a great job on secondary assignments and make a real impact off the ball with his nose for off-ball event creation and superior rebounding talent.
The offensive side of the ball is where Podz will shine. He’s lethal with the ball in his hands, possessing a great handle and touch with a knack for getting to his spots. Brandin can get to his step-back with ease, hit all kinds of funky floaters, and contort his body around the rim for tough finishes. Despite a high shooting volume from outside (41.3% on 5.8 attempts per game), Podz drew a strong 32.3 free throw rate and converts his trips to the line with regularity. The quickness, floor sense, and natural touch scream future three-level scorer with the potential for a truly elite perimeter and intermediate game.
Though the assist numbers weren’t gaudy with his role as an off-ball guard, he still managed to cross the 20% assist rate plateau with an array of strong passing looks. He is especially adept at layoff passes after drives, but can hit rollers from a variety of angles and make long skips with either hand. There is a true point guard in there, but Golden State would happily settle for plus playmaking from a combo spot given his shooting and driving talent. His ability to convert on passing windows was on display at some of the combine scrimmages against his fellow draftees:
With good size, athleticism, tons of natural touch, and savvy with the ball in his hands, Podz can be a big-time scorer in the league in due time. The major question for now is how he slots into this roster, and new GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. seemed to throw some cold water on him being handed any sort of role:
It’s worth noting Dunleavy also said Podziemski was “8-9 spots” higher on their board than 19th overall, so he clearly believes in him in a big way, especially with Jordan Poole going cross-country. Podz may enter the season no higher than fifth on the depth chart at guard, but with an aging and oft-injured Chris Paul in the fold, expect to see him on the floor plenty to fill in the gaps.
Trayce Jackson-Davis
Before the draft began, our role-projection model had a few fits labeled as “perfect”. Trayce Jackson-Davis to the Warriors was one of those perfect fits, and freshly minted GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. went and made it happen.
He fits like a glove into the Warriors’ offensive system. He has an outstanding handle for a true big, and shows great coordination in the post with a variety of body fakes and rip moves. If given a mismatch on the perimeter against slower centers, he could put the ball on the deck to get into the paint or make a kickout pass. He was doubled in the post at a 99th percentile frequency, and was not only able to continue scoring but involved his teammates at a high level.
Not only does he have a refined offensive game, but plenty of athleticism to boot. He’s not the most dynamic leaper but can load multiple jumps quickly to get quick dunks, lobs, and putbacks on the offensive glass. TJD posted an above-average rebounding rate on both ends of the floor in all four years at Indiana University, and the production on the glass reached absurd levels in his senior year with 13.7 rebounds per 75 minutes. If he is the rotational big behind Kevon Looney, they might not experience the drastic drop-off in rebounding numbers when the Loongod sits.
His skillset is very conducive to the DHOs, split actions, and short rolls that the Warriors love using their bigs for. He’s a refined screener and quick decision maker, but the passing really jumps out. In an offense filled with relocating shooters and baseline cutters, he can read the floor quickly to find the window and deliver an array of beautiful passes. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say Trayce Jackson-Davis will easily be the best passing big not named Draymond Green that Steve Kerr has had to use. Just watch the variety of reads he can make here:
This preternatural feel for the court will make him deadly on handoffs and pick-and-roll, especially given the bench unit. Chris Paul-TJD two-man game with Gary Payton II cutting and shooters like Podz and Moody on the wing? That’s how you keep an offense afloat when Steph Curry heads to the bench.
All this discussion about his offensive brilliance, and I have hardly mentioned he scored 25 points per 75 possessions across the last three seasons. The NCAA is a far friendlier environment for a guy like Trayce to get high usage, but there is more than enough reason to think he will be a plus scorer with his touch around the rim, strength, footwork, and touch out into the short midrange. He checks all the boxes the Warriors need offensively, and will be a seamless fit into the motion offense as a true 5.
Defense was a concern for any team trying to draft him, but the Warriors have been turning cents into dollars with their rim protection for years. They have posted back-to-back seasons with the top opponent rim field goal percentage with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green as the primary centers, and Jackson-Davis is taller than both of those guys. He has his athletic limitations, especially with lateral movement, but they can make drop bigs work with their personnel. Trayce has shown he can be a strong rotator and passable rim protector, and I’ve always liked how he positions himself to block and contest shots without costing himself valuable rebounding position. He’s even shown the occasional strong closeout in years past:
What happens on the bench wing spots is still up in the air, but Gary Payton II and Chris Paul will have the lion’s share of defensive possessions at the guard spots. GP2’s defense speaks for itself, and CP3 is smart enough not to put his bigs in avoidable defensive situations in the pick-and-roll. If he can control the restricted area, continue positive contribution on the glass, and occasionally show at the level of the screen to keep offenses honest, he won’t be a weak link in the defensive unit.
This was an absolute home run by the Warriors in my eyes. I had him listed as a high second-round buy in my draft day guide for Golden State, and had no expectation he would be available this late. A clear path to a rotation spot, great value, and an experienced winning player on a cheap multi-year deal. What else could you want from the 57th pick?
Javan Johnson
With Lester Quiñones set to graduate from the G-League soon after a massive season with the Santa Cruz Warriors, Javan Johnson should be another solid add to their developmental roster. If it’s buckets you need, buckets you will get from Javan.
A 24-year-old 5th-year senior, Johnson put up a strong season with DePaul (his third different CBB team) where he really found a groove. Initially miscast as a stretch forward, DePaul let Javan put the ball in his hands as much as possible and reaped the benefits.
He made 41.2% of his 6.0 threes attempted per game, 89% of which came in catch-and-shoot scenarios. At 6’6″-6’7″, he has a strong release point and quick, repeatable motion that evokes flashes of Isaiah Joe. When you’re sniffing around undrafted free agents, having one immediately translatable skill is a great starting point. He’s pretty good at using body fakes and cuts to open up shooting opportunities as well, and profiles as much more than a “stand there with your hands ready” kind of shooter. There are some signs as well that Javan could be more than a catch-and-shoot specialist.
It’s likely that the rim pressure game never gets there. Possessing middling handle and burst, Johnson was never a free-throw guy in college and it’s hard to imagine that getting better at the highest level. Yet Johnson has smooth footwork and touch, and showcases an ability to get into the midrange off the dribble or attacking closeouts. A one-level scorer is hard to translate, but a two-level scorer gives you a bit more meat on the bone. If teams have to respect the shot, chances will open up for 1-2 dribble pull-ups in the midrange, especially above drop when he is coming off screens.
On the defensive end, Johnson doesn’t profile as much of a wing stopper. He can make some technically sound plays but lacks the requisite foot speed and strength to stay with most scoring wings. However, he has shown some flashes in rotation, consistently posting a solid block rate for an off-ball wing. If he has to be hidden at the 4 spot defensively, that really puts a damper on his overall prospects to find an NBA niche.
But this is undrafted free agency; these guys don’t get to this stage without some flaws. It gives them another project in Santa Cruz with at least one pliable skill, and shooting specialists are always good to bet on for such a low risk (see Heat, Miami).
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