The Boston Celtics are in a strange form of NBA purgatory.
On pace to win 65 games, they are running laps around the Eastern Conference. They hold the best net rating in the league and have established themselves as clear title favorites yet again. Boston has not reached these heights in the Jayson Tatum era, which is especially impressive for a team that has played at a 53-win pace since he was drafted.
But the whole regular season is treated as one big “yeah, but” due to their recent playoff failings. Four conference finals appearances in six years have produced just one Finals trip, a gut-punch loss to a Warriors team that was objectively inferior. Not even this level of regular season success can erase that from the minds of observers.
Their search for answers led to the acquisitions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday in the offseason, moving on from reigning 6MOY Malcolm Brogdon and fan icon/former DPOY Marcus Smart. Jrue fills in a lot of what Smart did (and didn’t) do, but Porzingis is a new element entirely for this team. Easily the most well-rounded Celtics big since Kevin Garnett, Porzingis is a player destined to be the swing factor in this title chase.
A major element of change he brings is the post-up game. Porzingis is why Boston has jumped from 24th in post-up frequency last season to 2nd this year. The efficiency has also jumped from 13th to tops in the league. Boston has struggled in the playoffs in large part due to massive offensive droughts, ones in which the team banks on 3-point reliance and fails to generate looks inside the arc. KP’s skills in the post may be the kind of slump-breaker they need when these droughts hit.
Let’s explore how Porzingis’ post-up skills have thrived in Boston.
The Numbers
Porzingis posts up 3.1 times per game, placing him 8th in the entire league. It’s the efficiency that stands out: his 1.40 points per possession leads all players averaging at least one post-up. Elite efficiency and high frequency add up to 4.3 points per game in the post, a mark eclipsed only by Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, and Anthony Davis. Not a bad list to be on.
I was curious about what fueled this success before I dove into the film. I tracked every possession by shot type to see where his strengths lie and it blew me away.
Leading the league in post-up efficiency when 70% of the shots are jumpers? Unbelievable. He’s making a remarkable 64% of those looks in addition to a 72% mark on his shots around the rim. How did Porzingis become so dangerous?
Lethal Shooting
This is the real lethal shooting. No moving rims covered in knives, just cold-blooded buckets.
The face-up jumper is the best weapon in his arsenal at a frightening 77.3%. His blend of body control, timing, and touch makes it nearly unguardable. Of course, being taller than every NBA player not named Victor Wembanyama is a huge boon.
Though not as deadly as the face-up shot, the turnaround is his preferred weapon. Porzingis is especially adept at turning over his left shoulder, often needing only one hand for a sort of turnaround push shot. At 56.3% it’s a high-quality part of his bag as well.
Seldom used, the step-back represents only 4.8% of his post-up shots, but it’s still something he can go to when needed. A little variety never hurts.
He’s a lot more than just a pretty jumper when it comes to his efficiency.
Prolific Foul Drawing
Of the 56 players posting up at least once per game, Porzingis has the top free throw rate at 31.7%. His positioning skills, quick release, and Inspector Gadget arms make it extremely difficult for opposing players to avoid contact. It’s very common for defenders to wrap him up when he is posting a mismatch. In addition to the wrap-ups, Porzingis draws plenty of fouls on his jump shot attempts.
There’s a lot more to his post game than just shooting the cover off the ball and drawing fouls. KP is a master of putting himself in positions to succeed, and I want to highlight how he generates optimal post-up chances.
A Master of Opportunism
Kristaps is quick to recognize his opportunities to post up, especially against mismatches. It’s not that teams are comfortable putting smaller defenders on him and living with the result. Porzingis works hard to force the opposing defense into giving him the mismatches he wants to take full advantage of.
Transition leakouts and cross-matching with early seals are a favorite trick of his:
This is how he gets the majority of his rim looks from the post. Get into deep position in transition, seal, then turn and finish before the rest of the defense can organize itself. Simple as that.
In the halfcourt, Porzingis loves to punish switching with his post game. A switch out of the pick and roll is his bread and butter:
Dribble handoffs are another way for Porzingis to force these switches and an equally effective one at that:
If teams are foolish enough to soft switch preemptively, he will feast:
Boston’s proclivity for a 5-out alignment means switching is inevitable, or else they will blow teams out of the water. They can try to take other things away come playoff time but the KP post-ups will be a constant threat. And though most of these looks are generated organically by the flow of the offense, coach Joe Mazzulla loves to sprinkle in some clever backscreen plays to open up chances, utilizing Derrick White‘s superior guard screening:
Come playoff time, these looks will be extremely difficult to take away from Porzingis, and the elite efficiency means a dependable source of offense is present even when all else fails. Not only does it serve to get him repeatable high-value looks, but it can kickstart the offense for the rest of the team.
Quality Post Playmaking
I don’t have access to assist numbers from the post (Second Spectrum, I want you.), but he is a quality post passer while keeping the turnovers down. He’s in the better half of turnover percentage among the aforementioned high-frequency post-up group. There are instances of poor reads or pass placement from the post, to be sure:
Porzingis is pretty good at recognizing opportunities, and even the basic passing reads can lead to easy offense for his teammates:
What impressed me the most was how he manipulated help shifting from the weak side to find shooters or cutters:
He’s no Jokic, but it’s playmaking that will suffice. It’s also an extremely important layer to safeguard his scoring. If you choose to double, he’ll make the right reads to get his teammates involved. If not, he’ll fry you with his jump shot or force a foul. A true pick-your-poison situation.
How Does This Change Boston’s Playoff Outlook?
Even if he scales up slightly in the postseason, the post-up offense he generates represents roughly 5% of their offensive output. It’s not suddenly going to be one of their primary methods of scoring.
What is crucial is when these touches come. When Boston inevitably hits a cold streak from deep, they have a reliable scoring option inside that doesn’t require a drive. They can also play inside-out from their 5-out alignments through his post-ups, generating better looks to help break their slump. It also presents an interesting late-game option. As an alternative to Jayson Tatum’s crunch time “Hey look at me I’m Kobe!” moments, a Porzingis post-up is a viable high-quality look.
As previously mentioned, it’s extremely hard to take post-ups out of the equation entirely. Boston will have an attainable and efficient look at their disposal even in the most dire cold streaks. Margins are thin in the postseason as we know. A timely post jumper here, a kickout there, and a cold streak ended now and then could be the difference in a game, a series, or a title run. You never know.
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