When Pascal Siakam was moved to the Indiana Pacers in January, there was much surprise for a multitude of reasons.
Pascal being dealt was not a shock; the Raptors were flirting with NBA purgatory and in desperate need of a full reset. The package was also not a shock, as three middling first-round picks for a 2x All-NBA player with 22/6/5 averages is more than fair. The shock was the team involved in the deal and the lack of a following extension.
The Pacers, despite their burgeoning success with a young team, do not play in a market that historically attracts free-agent stars. A player like Siakam probably wouldn’t be joining Indiana of his own volition over the summer, thus the need to make a deal and spend the second half of the season convincing him that re-signing would be a boon. It’s fair to hand-wring over the thought of spending that draft capital on a star that can easily walk. Yet it was a swing Indiana rightfully felt compelled to take given their success.
The deal paid off in their first playoff series, finishing off a stumbling Bucks team in six games. Siakam led the team in scoring throughout the series including a crucial 37/11/6 performance (with no turnovers!) in a Game 2 victory on the road, stealing home-court advantage and setting the tone. I wanted to explore how Pascal’s performance fueled Indiana’s upset victory and propelled them to the conference semifinals against the New York Knicks.
Offensive Overview
Pascal led his team despite dropping plenty of points from distance (27% on 22 attempts) and at the free throw line (46% on 26 attempts). Inside the arc, he was a dominating force. Siakam converted 62% of his twos, an incredible figure for a guy who takes a lot of midrange and post-up shots. His best work came in the post and in transition, where he generated 1.4 PPP. Watching him use his athleticism, size, and touch to overwhelm an undersized and relatively unathletic Bucks team was extremely impressive.
In addition to the scoring prowess, Siakam managed 25 assists to a measly 3 turnovers. Incredibly, he managed to take care of the ball well despite the volume of double-teams thrown at him. We will explore the film to see how Siakam did his damage in addition to creating for his high-flying teammates.
Midrange Dominance
As previously mentioned, Pascal has produced elite results in the post. A lot of that is due to his lethal midrange fadeaway shot. His strength/handle combination helps to put him in the right spots and the length/size gives him a nearly unguardable release.
The threat of his drives opens up a lot of pull-up midrange looks. With Myles Turner serving in a spacing role, Spicy P was constantly matched against Milwaukee’s bigs. If they backed off, he would rise and hit the middy.
Indiana even sprinkled in pick-and-pops for his midrange attempts, some real 1980s basketball looks.
Despite the frequency and efficiency, Pascal’s midrange game is not the only way he contributes heavily to this half-court offense.
DHO/Post Usage
The usage of dribble handoffs, both as the pitcher and catcher, has been interesting to watch. The presence of those bigs guarding him serves to pull rim protection away from the paint, opening up space for drivers and for Pascal himself.
The post-ups have worked with similar efficacy. The midrange fadeaway we covered before is a go-to weapon, but Siakam won’t hesitate to seal off a mismatch and get to the rim if the opportunity presents itself.
What impressed me the most with his post usage was the playmaking. The Bucks without Giannis were forced to double him early and often, forcing him to make kickouts or layoff passes instead. Siakam was more than happy to oblige the Bucks by breaking them down with a flurry of post passes.
In this upcoming series against the Knicks, Pascal will see a healthy amount of doubles against a Tom Thibodeau defense. If his teammates can work hard to find the open space for cuts and perimeter shots, Siakam’s post playmaking will be a major point of interest. And it’s not the only area where his playmaking impact is felt.
Pinch Playmaking
Against a team willing to load up in the paint, Pascal did not get many chances for clean drives. Milwaukee would send lots of help at the nail or collapse from the weak side to prevent paint points. Siakam showed a willingness and ability to make the right kickouts from his drives to take advantage of the defense.
This upcoming matchup with the Knicks will present similar opportunities. New York will send help to force shooters to beat them, and Siakam has to be willing to kick out instead of forcing shots over Isaiah Hartenstein/Mitchell Robinson/OG Anunoby.
Another interesting element for this matchup is how often Thibodeau wants to tag rollers. He will send help from all over, including the strong corner, to force the ball out of the hands of rollers. Possessions like the following will be crucial to breaking this excellent New York defense.
Expecting him to post another 8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is a little silly. Yet it will be important to sit around 4-5 assists per game while taking good care of the ball if Indiana has a chance. Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and TJ McConnell typically share the playmaking burden. With the sheer volume of POA defense New York possesses, Siakam will need to step up as a shot generator for his teammates in order to balance the Indiana attack.
Offensive Glass Crashing
Not only was Pascal Siakam the Pacers’ leader in offensive rebounding during the Bucks series, but he also posted the 11th-highest offensive rebounding rate of 61 qualified players in the first round. It was an impressive display of effort, positioning, and coordination to generate second chances consistently. Despite being the third-tallest player in the 8-man playoff rotation (Myles Turner and Obi Toppin both clear him), Siakam spends the most time in the paint due to the spacing of those two. They place a heavy burden on Siakam to generate these looks.
And wow, did he ever dominate the glass.
Against a Knicks team that had problems on the defensive glass against the Sixers (74.4%, 11th among playoff teams in R1) Indiana will need a similar effort to tip the scales. New York was dominant at generating second chances (32.2%, 2nd among R1 teams) and Indiana needs to narrow that gap to get a possession advantage. It’s no surprise given that the Knicks were the top offensive rebounding team in the regular season, yet they were middle of the pack in defensive rebounding rate. The Pacers need Siakam (and the whole frontcourt, really) to capitalize on that weakness.
In a series that features a bad offense vs a bad defense and an elite offense vs an elite defense, the total possessions each team can generate will likely decide many of these games. Indiana cannot afford to lose the possession battle in a major way, or else their offense will have little chance of powering a series victory.
Transition Efficiency
Against a slow Bucks team, Siakam in the open floor was murder. He showed a fantastic blend of leakouts after shot contests, attacking an unsettled defense after grabbing boards and sealing mismatches early to generate transition looks. That 1.4 PPP mark ranked in the 84th percentile among all players in the first round, and it’s easy to see why.
It’s not going to be this easy against the Knicks defense. They’re more disciplined, possess better athletes, and have a size/mobility blend that can make life difficult in the open floor. Former teammate OG Anunoby, one of the better transition defenders around, will likely see his minutes matched with Siakam to boot.
The need to generate baskets in transition is of the utmost importance in this series. Indiana generated a 90th percentile rate of transition offense in the regular season, falling to the 63rd percentile in the opening round. Conversely, New York was a 60th percentile team at preventing transition looks in the regular season, but fell to the 25th percentile against a quick Sixers squad. Siakam must press hard to attack the unsettled defense before that elite half-court Knicks defensive unit can organize.
Pascal was the key that unlocked Indiana’s offense in this first-round series. Of all 5-man lineups across the 16 playoff squads, Indiana’s top lineup (Hali/Nembhard/Nesmith/Siakam/Turner) generated the highest offensive rating at 134.2 pts per 100. That kind of figure with only one player scoring 20+ PPG is a masterclass in ball sharing and versatility of attack. It’s the other side of the floor that has me concerned.
Defensive Overview
The other side of the lineup stats are rough. That top Indiana lineup surrendered 113.3 points per 100 possessions, a 17th-percentile mark in the playoffs. There is some good in the midst of all that bad, including solid marks in turnover creation and defensive rebounding percentage. Yet they leave a lot to be desired, which is a surprise in a playoff setting considering that Nembhard, Siakam, and Turner are all above-average defensive players in my eye.
Against this Knicks team, they’ll have to avoid the easy mistakes and make a struggling offense fight for every bucket.
POA Success
Indiana switched 1-4 (even 1-5 at times) against Milwaukee, with Pascal finding himself going from guarding Khris Middleton to Damian Lillard often. He did an admirable job containing those two in my opinion. He could stick long enough to let a better switch come, got around screens for rear-view contests, and contained them when called upon.
They don’t need him to be the point-of-attack guard ace when Andrew Nembhard is on the floor, who will be seeing heavy minutes on Jalen Brunson. Myles Turner patrolling the back line gives an extra measure of confidence. Yet there will come a time when the switches happen. The length and footwork of Siakam will make life tough on Brunson and creation nigh impossible for the other perimeter players.
What’s equally impressive about Siakam is the kind of impact he can make even if the switching doesn’t pull him out to the perimeter.
Hustling in Help
Siakam has never been a traditional defensive event creator. But historically, his event creation has risen in the playoffs. His steal and block rates from the regular season to the postseason remain the same across his career, yet the percentile ranks climb higher due to the nature of playoff defense. Slower and more methodical offenses will take away opportunities to create those events, yet Pascal finds a way.
Even if not getting a steal or block, Siakam makes an impact as a rotational rim protector to affect shots and make life hard on those getting to the rim when Myles Turner is pulled away from the rim.
I was pleasantly surprised at seeing Siakam’s impact as a transition defender. He could outright erase the play or show the hustle necessary to make opponents earn it at the line.
Whether he’s on or off the ball depending on how the switch plays out, in the halfcourt or the open floor, Pascal Siakam finds a way to make an impact.
Post Defense Questions
Milwaukee had to go post-heavy in the first-round series, and Siakam was often a point of attack. Bobby Portis especially went to work often, and the results were overall great for Siakam.
Milwaukee managed to generate 1.19 PPP on these post-ups overall, a strong mark. Yet many of these came on tough jumpers or contested hooks. The numbers don’t do justice to the kind of looks Siakam forced Portis and Brook Lopez to take.
New York was not a post-up team in the regular season, even with Julius Randle. They managed a 33rd percentile post frequency and had the 2nd lowest post-up efficiency league-wide. Those numbers have only dropped in the playoffs: New York posted up a total of 9 times in their series against the Sixers. Zero came from their bigs, as OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, and Bojan Bogdanovic (who is now out for the playoffs) accounted for those nine.
It would be a surprise to see New York try to post up Siakam to any degree, if they choose to at all. Even in desperate times when the buckets dry up, smaller Knick wings going up against Pascal wouldn’t help things. But it merits keeping an eye on.
Lastly, we come to possession finishing.
Strong Rebounding
After his trade to Indiana, Siakam’s rebounding efficacy jumped in a major way. His 17.3% defensive rebounding share put him in the 91st percentile amongst forwards. That number has jumped to 18.3% in the first round and made a major impact.
This is where you could argue Indiana will need Siakam the most as a defender. New York is a punishingly good offensive rebounding team as mentioned previously. Pascal will need to put in work to end possessions, or else Indy’s suspect defense will have to get stop after stop just to get back on defense.
Playoff Outlook
Indiana will once again be scrapping as underdogs, but they face a similar task. Their high-powered offense will face a strong half-court defense. And their lackluster defense will need to compete against a shorthanded and underperforming offense. It feels like whichever team can put together sustained offensive runs will be able to wrangle this series.
Siakam is the kind of guy who can tip this in favor of the Pacers. If he can get to work against the likes of OG Anunoby and Josh Hart on the offensive end, that takes away a lot of what makes New York great. Holding his own on defense and making an impact in help to contain Jalen Brunson (in addition to keeping the non-threatening scorers in check) will be massive.
I’m foaming at the mouth in anticipation of this series. Two teams punching above their weight with young cores. A high-paced and electric offense against a grinding defense. Stars a-plenty and excellent role players (or Alfreds, as JJ Redick would call them). Let’s see what kind of impact Pascal Siakam can make to propel his team towards their first conference finals in a decade.
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