For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

That being said, not much of this tank’s return has shown. Shaedon Sharpe was the first major draft pick of this new era, and though he’s flashed potential, his injury concerns and limitations bring up questions. Scoot Henderson was supposed to be the franchise’s cornerstone but faces an uphill battle to be a productive player in the league, let alone live up to his potential. Donovan Clingan was a great prospect but hardly projected to be a centerpiece.

In the spirit of piling on, the non-draft picks haven’t panned out either. Anfernee Simons is at least staying healthy but has regressed somewhat. Jerami Grant, the last holdout of the Dame era besides Simons and Sharpe, has failed to generate enough trade interest to be moved. The same can be said for DeAndre Ayton. Grant is 30, Ayton is 26, and Simons is 25. Despite that, it’s hard to feel good about any of them as players who can be around for a future successful iteration of the Blazers.

It’s not all dire. The Deni Avdija acquisition was a shrewd move that should pan out in the long run. Robert Williams III has managed to recapture some of his value and could fetch them something decent in a trade. But what excites me most about Portland’s rebuild is that the third player they acquired in the 2023 draft has been the best of the trio.

Enter Toumani Camara.

More than used to being an afterthought in his basketball career, Camara was a footnote in the gargantuan Damian Lillard-Jrue Holiday-Ayton-Jusuf Nurkic deal. Portland decision-makers coveted the three first-round picks and the cadre of tradeable veterans they got from the teardown, not the four-year college player taken with the 52nd overall pick. Yet he may be the best thing they got out of the deal.

Let me show you why.

Offensive Overview

For those of you following this series, it’s hardly surprising I have found yet another defense-first wing searching for an offensive role. Peyton Watson, Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Bilal Coulibaly, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have all featured thus far. Yet all of them save Watson had some sort of established offensive identity. Watson has yet to find any. So I wanted to focus on a player finding an interesting way of contributing offensively. It starts with the most boring off-ball skill.

Shooting

Camara is primarily stationed as a corner shooter in Portland’s base offense, taking nearly half of his perimeter looks from there. Their general lack of shooting as a team forces him to lift above the break more often but that’s been fine up to a certain point. Camara is hitting 36% of his above-the-break looks, a hair above his 34% mark from the corners, and looks confident.

Portland has real spacing issues to work out as a team and I don’t see Camara as the long-term spacing outlet. But for his role as a big wing playing off primary creators, he’s doing a fine job. The increase in three-point volume from last year to this year has been promising and I hope it continues as coach Chauncey Billups grooms him for a role as a fifth offensive option in the long run.

Finishing Questions

Camara may be passable from the perimeter, but it is considerably more problematic in the restricted area. His 59% mark at the rim is a 30th percentile mark for wings, and the 32% mark in the short midrange is a tough 27th percentile mark. It’s not for a lack of trying on his part. Camara generally resides in the upper quartile of wings on rim FGA percentage in addition to roughly half of his rim attempts being self-created. Typically, his finishes on the drive look like this:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t show off some of the good. Sometimes it looks very good and makes you excited.

Mostly what we have here isn’t a confidence problem; Camara isn’t afraid to go at anyone, finish with either hand, or try audacious looks. What we mostly have here is a decision-making problem. Sometimes it’s not about how you finish, but when you choose to. This shows up more when we look at his playmaking off the drive. Again, some of it does look good!

But the bad patterns are there in spades. Running right into charges, jumping in the air without a plan, being early or late to passing windows, and failing to recognize help points. There’s a reason his turnover percentage is around 15% for the second straight year, despite single-digit assist rates and a usage rate in the low teens.

What’s important to me is that despite the generally poor results, Portland’s coaching staff is perfectly fine letting him work the kinks out. That confidence seems to manifest in Camara’s brazen manner on the drive. The shooting has potential and Billups is more than willing to see if Toumani can make other contributions to the offense by putting the ball on the deck. Only time will tell if loosening the reins can bear fruit.

It’s not the only way Portland has endeavored to find out how Camara can play a role.

Leveraging Athleticism Off-Ball

At a solid 6’8″ with 220 pounds of muscle, Toumani’s height and size benefit him as a shooter and driver. Portland has begun to ask, why not test him out as a screener?

For a guy with decision-making issues, screener usage has allowed him to narrow the tree of decisions. Once he sets a good screen and rolls, the choices are fairly simple: find the finishing angle or kick out to shooters and cutters. Camara has looked much better with this narrower set of decisions.

The PPP on his roll man possessions has jumped from 0.88 last year to 1.125 this year, a noticeable jump that reflects the tape: Camara is learning to make better choices. The good mix of passes from the roll is encouraging to boot. As the league spreads out and trends to diverse sizes and skills, a big wing that can effectively screen and roll is a great tool.

Camara also presents some good cutting instincts, and though the iffy finishing remains an issue when playing below the rim, he’s more than capable of finishing above the rim spectacularly.

As a guy taking on tons of primary defensive assignments, it’s admirable that Camara gets out in transition with good frequency. Again the finishing issues persist unless he can get vertical, but some of the results have been enjoyable.

For the second year running, Camara is a 90th percentile or better offensive rebounder for a wing. Not only does he have the size and vertical athleticism, but Toumani also hustles hard for putbacks and tip-outs. Despite his struggles finishing on the drive, he often shows special hand-eye coordination with his tip-ins. Throw in good instincts on when to put the ball back up and when to kick it back out and you have one of the premier second-chance creators and finishers from the perimeter in the whole league.

The shooting is passable, the screening and cutting are solid, and the offensive rebounding is outstanding. Overall, this adds up to a pretty useful off-ball player in the proper context. Hopefully, time will allow Portland to add more offensive creators and find better synergy or player fits over the next few years to place Camara in a better offensive setting to leverage his talents. In the meantime, they might as well let him take threes, set screens, and endure some rough drives to figure out how much untapped offensive potential resides within Toumani.

Defensive Stud

Much like Bilal Coulibaly in Washington, Camara is the young defensive perimeter bludgeon a tanking team uses to bother their opponent’s top option. The versatility on display from Toumani is rather unique, even amongst the best defenders in the league. Since the beginning of last year when I began to studiously watch his tape, I jotted down a rough list of players I’ve seen him take on as primary assignments for at least chunks of a game, if not a whole game.

That’s a pretty good visual of what it looks like to be thrown in the fire. What’s crazy is that he has looked more than capable of handling it. Enjoy 100+ games’ worth of Toumani making life hard on, or completely shutting down, his massive range of assignments on an island.

His +1.2 D-EPM mark from last season numbered amongst the elite, especially impressive given that EPM factors in context, so the weight of playing on a 21-win team only makes it more noteworthy. He’s suffered slightly in his numbers as Portland’s defense somehow gets worse. Still, we are watching one of the better perimeter defenders in the league here, and few can get around this guy. There’s only one hole in the perimeter game I keep my eye on: speed.

Some handlers can turn on the jets and give Toumani issues. Given his prowess and technical attention to detail, a little tightening up of the footwork preparedness would put him in trail block positions more often, or create outright stops. It’s well within his skillset to close this gap with reps.

Rotation Questions

It’s not uncommon for young players to be far more attentive and effective on the ball than off it. But with so much of the game happening away from the ballhandler, those lapses in focus and technique will burn you now more than ever. Someone as effective on the ball as Toumani will be avoided as his reputation builds, so attacking him off the ball becomes necessary. Camara has failed to bring that same intensity to his off-ball game.

He’s missing rotations, losing cutters, offering weak help, and moving at inopportune times. All things that can kill a defense in rotation, especially given the talent Camara often finds himself covering.

Darrelle Revis was the best at what he did because he was in your jersey every play until the ball hit the turf. Wise quarterbacks looked away from him early, but the best of the best were testing his attention all game long and he hardly ever lapsed. Toumani will be forced to step up his attention in the coming years. Luckily, there has been an uptick in the current season.

His block and steal rates have remained steady as he continues to be a strong event creator on and off the ball, and his ability to switch has played a major role in the elite steal rates. Setting a screen good enough to take him off the ball puts his long arms in passing lanes of all kinds, something he relishes.

Don’t get me wrong, Toumani being a lockdown perimeter option is the most important developmental goal. Eventually, those players will want to iso or call for a ball screen and Toumani will be there. But in the times he’s off the ball, waiting for those opportunities, he will need to ensure he doesn’t get burned with cuts, off-ball screens, and long closeouts. Tightening up his rotational defense would truly make him the whole package on the ugly end of the floor, and a potential All-Defense candidate in coming years.

Looking Forward

The usage patterns throughout the season will be interesting to monitor offensively, especially if Portland undergoes further selling at the deadline to clear out minutes and touches. I hope to see the shooting numbers stay solid and further development of his decision-making on the drive, possibly coming from his chances as a roll man. Any sort of improvement as a threat around the basket would be a welcome sight.

Defensively, I’ll be watching how he handles speedy guards to see if his few gaps can be closed on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing more of his chops against the toughest assignments. The signs in rotational and off-ball defense have been good, but I want more consistency from an already outstanding defender. He’s got the potential to be a world-wrecker from the wing spot. The last time I wrote about a young wing needing to strive beyond excellence, I got to watch Dyson Daniels deliver on his promise in Atlanta and put together what will surely be an All-Defensive nod. I see that same potential in Camara.

Chin up, Portland fans. Rebuild is about finding one guy at a time, and Toumani is very much a guy to bank on for years to come. Someone who makes their teammates look good as Camara does will be a welcome presence for whoever can lead Portland into the future.

The post Finding a Role: Toumani Camara appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

At a glance Jerome’s box score makes you raise your eyebrows (12 points a game, 3.6 assists, 50% from three, 123 TS+ not a typo). His efficiency has been absurd this year, posting similar scoring numbers to play finished bigs like Sabonis, Gafford, and his teammate Jarrett Allen. The logical question to ask is “Well is he just standing in the corner being spoon feed wide open looks?” The answer: no. His overall Shot Quality is in the 13th percentile. He’s second in the league in Shot Making Efficiency which is a metric that measures how well you shoot relative to expectation. The takeaway is he’s been extremely efficient on difficult shots. Below you can see his shot diet. You don’t need to be an analyst to see that he’s been automatic regardless of play type.

Viz via nbavisuals.com

The scoring combined with his passing pushed him into the “I need to write an article about him” territory. It’s hard to find bench players who can run an offense but when you do, it can keep you from over-taxing your stars during the regular season. Jerome has been the top bench player in Basketball Index’s Playmaking Talent. This metric takes into account your passing volume, efficiency, versatility, on-ball gravity, and quality of looks generated for teammates. Looking at Playmaking Talent versus how often a player has the ball (Ball Dominance) you can see if a player is making good use of his passing opportunity. In the graph below you can see that Jerome has been not only the best playmaker among bench players but he hasn’t needed the ball as much as his peers.   

(The graph above is filtered down to players that have 250 minutes played this season and have started less than half of their games)

-Viz via bball-index.com

His scoring versatility, efficiency, and playmaking have put him in early conversations for 6MOY. Some regression is expected in regard to his 3-point shooting, but even so, his midrange and rim finishing have been great. On the other end of the floor, his Defensive Playmaking has been fantastic (95th percentile – this is a metric I created that takes into account deflections, steals, blocks, and offensive fouls drawn) and has kept his value near neutral. So far, Ty Jerome has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024-25 season. 

The post Ty Jerome: Late Bloomer appeared first on Swish Theory.

Boston’s Derrick White and Denver’s Aaron Gordon may be high-end examples, but does Dallas make the Finals last season without journeyman Derrick Jones Jr.? Does Miami make it the year before without Caleb Martin?

With that in mind, here is Part One of my Finding a Role Introduction for this season, where I’ll be tracking some of the league’s rising (potential) difference-makers. We live in the here and now, of course, focusing on how Player X can earn more minutes and dollars by increasing his value to his current team, but keep in mind the long-term undercurrent: Can these guys show up as high-end contributors on championship-level teams? How are they going to get there?

Additionally, this season’s installments of Finding a Role would not be possible without crowdscout.net, the brainchild of Swish Theory co-founder Eric Weiss (and company), a truly game-changing way to watch and catalogue film from around the NBA.

Click on the linked playlists for the CrowdScout Experience, and more context on each of these players.

Tari Eason

After being selected 17th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft by the Houston Rockets, Tari Eason immediately made a name for himself by playing real hard and annoying the hell out of most of his opponents throughout his rookie season. However, his sophomore season was ended after just 22 appearances due to lower-leg injury troubles. First a stress fracture, then a surgery to address a benign growth in his shin. Not ideal.

But that sample of play — in addition to his start in 2024-25 — is more than enough to define Eason within Houston’s over-crowded room of young players a leap or two away from changing their careers.

Offense: Bow-Tyer (playlist)

Tari Eason is built like an athlete. He’s listed as 6’8″ with a 7’2″ wingspan, and between that and his aggressive defensive style, which we’ll cover, he’s subject to type-casting on offense. Yes, he can crash the glass and finish transition opportunities above-the-rim, but Eason has room to grow into a connective role on that end. Throughout his first two seasons, he showed considerable court-mapping and decision-making prowess despite a relative lack of possessing the ball.

This cut-and-kick creates a corner-three for Houston, and while he perhaps misses a real tough, high-value dump-off to Alperen Şengün, it showcases some skills Eason should tap into more:

Tari will make to the rim if he sees the back of his defender’s head, and he can find the open shooters in transition. This play stands out not because it’s anything ground-breaking, but because he identifies where the advantage will be early. The drive-and-kick itself becomes pretty simple:

There’s really no reason, then, for his career-assist-rate to be hovering below 8%. Eason doesn’t have to be late-career Andre Iguodala in year three, but he’s shown too much court-awareness to have none of his passing stats pop. Yes, he often stands in the corner in Houston’s half-court offense, but ending the closeouts he does attack with extra passes and even higher-value looks for teammates has to be a focus.

However, it bodes well that Eason is finishing strong at the rim to start 2024-25, perhaps invigorated by a successful rehab process. Cleaning the Glass is tracking him at 48-of-66, or 73% on shots at the rim this season, up from his previous career-mark of 56% on 415 attempts.

It’s early. But Eason looks to be a merely competent 3-point threat on low volume, shooting in the mid-30s without many attempts off the dribble or off movement (though it’s worth noting he is just 250 attempts into his career).

Eason has never had a problem getting to the paint, but he hasn’t always pressed the right button to get there. Occasionally he doesn’t leverage his physicality into an advantage, opting for a slow-step or euro type of finish that diminishes his athletic traits. Often times, he’s stunted by a lack of flexibility in his handle, forced to pick the ball up one dribble too soon.

For now, though, he’s solving the issue, and flashing signs of tying the bow on top of Houston’s offense. He can handle in transition, cut to the rim or get there off a closeout or offensive board, and for now, he’s finishing those possessions. Becoming a more consistent passer is the key, and that’ll open up opportunities to get him in the short-roll as a screener or ball-handler in some inverted actions.

Defense: Ball-Hawk (playlist)

Simple. He rebounds everything, and yeah, he may foul a lot, but Eason is currently in the 100th percentile for steal- and block-rate for his position in 2024-25, per Cleaning the Glass. Passing lanes, pick-pockets, swipe-downs, contests as the low-man, you name it, Tari does it.

There is a flip-side, in that he’s occasionally beat on his gambling, and he’s not always in the right positions when it comes to scramble-mode or communicating with his teammates. Last season, playing against the Indiana Pacers, Eason was occasionally tasked with guarding Buddy Hield. He did okay, but it showed that his skillset is more tailored to helping off a non-shooting threat rather than being responsible for the deadliest shooter on the floor. On this play, he survives poor screen-navigation at first, though that’s an admittedly bigger problem than biting on the ball-fake when helps on a drive:

(It’s tough to help off Buddy Hield.)

Houston hasn’t always had the rim-protection to insulate some of his gambling tendencies, though Şengün is looking sturdier in 2024-25 but Eason’s ball-hawking nature is too valuable to be constricted.

This end of the floor is a bit easier to predict for Tari Eason. Unless he’s playing in handcuffs, he’s going to rack up the deflections as a long-armed athlete with plus-anticipation skills. Molding those desirable skills into a team-context where he can more comfortably navigate switches and make funky rotations is an obvious key for him.

Playlist: https://crowdscout.net/p?p=01934941-a5b0-7990-9c53-069a08998d21&i=3329457)

Gradey Dick

Gradey Dick is here to shoot the rock.

Offense: Loose Dynamite (Playlist)

He’s 6’7″ with a high release point, and has shown stretches of being the shot-maker the Toronto Raptors envisioned when they took him out of University of Kansas in the 2023 NBA Draft. As with any shooter, Dick needs to improve on the margins: making the right choice when defenses run him off the 3-point line, not falling too in love with that mid-range pull-up, finishing at the rim, et cetera.

But Gradey has scored 25-plus points five times in his career, and they’ve all come in the early stages of the 2024-25 season. Opportunity has abounded with Scottie Barnes and others missing considerable time for Toronto, but think about the archetype here. Gradey didn’t just stand in the corner and wait to capitalize on advantages that weren’t created, he went out and got 20 shots.

Dick’s shown some malleability off that high release-point, and the anticipation/hand-eye to convert opportunies that he otherwise couldn’t, given a fairly uninspiring athletic profile. On this pair of buckets, he first push-dribbles through a dig, then drops a tough turnaround over Rudy Gobert before floating a moon-ball over him the next time down:

Is this Dick’s ideal shot-profile? No. Does it indicate that he get create real looks for himself outside the limited context of a less threatening stand-in-the-corner white guy? Absolutely.

Gradey’s always going to be a little reliant on organized offense to get his looks off; pin-downs with correct spacing, setting a ball-screen -> coming off a flare, etc. However, on a healthy Raptors team with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley most often toting the rock, Gradey’s gonna need to find other ways to get his shots off. His growing ability to find his spots bodes well.

Of course, making the right decisions when attacking closeouts is paramount, but look for Gradey to keep firing all sorts of 3-point looks. Hopefully, he can use his anticipation and hand-eye skills to find crevasses to get to the rim a tad more, though that floater will be a real weapon for years to come. Ideally, Gradey Dick is a loose stick of dynamite; handle him with improper care and watch your house burn down.

Defense: Chain Link (Playlist)

Gradey Dick isn’t going to become a lockdown defender on the ball, but he’s going to have to bleed a little less on the perimeter. His foot-speed and short-space explosiveness is just alright, so it’s tough when the NBA’s shiftiest guards reject screens on him and whatnot. Here, he deftly switches a screen and then chases Anthony Edwards, of all people, through another one, but Ant dusts him with a simple-jab:

Of course, Gradey Dick cannot give up baseline on this play, and that worry is a part of what sends him flying, in addition to, you know. That play is the result of an off-ball switch, and while the Toronto Raptors won’t ask Gradey Dick to guard all the opponent’s most threatening players, he’ll be put in some uncomfortable situations.

In the meantime, Gradey Dick has to continue communicating with his teammates and showing in the right spots, something he’s done a nice job of for a player early in his second season.

Vince Williams Jr.

Vince Williams Jr. missed the first month of the Memphis Grizzlies season recovering from a stress fracture in his tibia, then returned for three games before spraining his ankle, which will cause him to miss around another month of action. Tough times for one of the league’s funkiest third-year players.

Offense: Gap Filler (Playlist)

In the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the Memphis Grizzlies deployed Vince as a fairly typical wing who was just getting his feet wet with consistent rotational minutes. Then, as the injuries continued to mount and Vince’s skillset became a bit clearer, he blossomed into something of a point-forward, racking up high-assist totals throughout the spring. It’s easy to see why:

Vince struggles to truly separate/blow by defenders with a live-dribble, but if there is an advantage available to him, he will make any sort of pass to get it done. ‘Ambitious’ is the word that comes to mind.

Vince could use a few more live-dribble counters to get to his spots; right now, he’s almost exclusively able to create out of dribble-handoffs or in transition rather than straight pick-and-roll. However, he did shoot 39% from deep as a willing 3-point shooter in 2023-24, perhaps a bit over his head but more than enough to draw closeouts and give his best skills and opportunity to shine.

In the half-court, he’s either taking those looks (and will pull off the dribble if his defender goes far under the screen) or trying to get all the way to the rim. Because Vince is not the most reactive ball-handler, he has trouble navigating tight spaces. While that limits his ability to consistently lay the ball up, his approach is at least partly why Memphis felt so comfortable giving him more responsibility.

Vince will make sure Memphis achieves its desired shot-profile if the ball is in his hands. He will either pass to or shoot from the high-value areas of the court. Sure, he can cut and shoot off-the-ball sufficiently; he’ll make inspiring extra passes. But Vince flies with some decision-making on his shoulders; the short-term question is how he’s going to do this while playing next to Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, and even the vaguely similar Marcus Smart.

Defense: Playmaker (Playlist)

I described Vince Williams Jr. as a funky third-year player not just as a term of admiration for his offensive play-style, but his defense too. Memphis tasked Vince with face-guarding their opponent’s best player for damn-near full games last season. From Kyrie Irving to Kevin Durant, Vince was guarding his man often with his back turned to the ball, almost like the football player he’s built like.

This encapsulates the VWJ experience on defense; he’s not always the most nimble at the point-of-attack, and he’s not racking up the deflections quite like Tari Eason, but he is a playmaker nonetheless. Vince is fantastic at contesting shots all over the court, but his verticality and ridiculous +7 wingspan really plays at the rim:

Despite his fundamentally sound skills there, Vince can be a bit of a risk-taker on the perimeter, and frequent gambles and pokes at the ball puncture holes in his point-of-attack defense. A tad too often, offensive players are able to create space by bumping him off course, surprising given his frame and physicality when sticking to guys off the ball.

Where should his skillset meet his role? Indeed, he is a playmaker on defense, with active hands, strong anticipation skills, and an ability to offer secondary rim-protection, but perhaps it is telling that Memphis stuck him on so many bona fide perimeter threats last season. Next to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, the Grizzlies may need him to buckle down, get through screens, and move his feet against smaller, shiftier players.

Nearly everything Vince does on a basketball court is interesting, but his role on Memphis’ defense is really something to look out for when he returns from injury.

This has merely been the first part of Finding a Role, 2025. There are a couple boys from Brooklyn I’ve yet to mention, but that will come at a later date.

Meanwhile, I will be re-visiting these three players frequently throughout this season, tracking progress in the aforementioned areas, as they look to establish themselves as upper-middle class NBA players who can make or break a contending front office. Can Gradey Dick’s ancillary offense push a championship-offense over the finish line? Will Tari Eason oversee and control playoff games on both ends of the court? Can Vince Williams Jr. toe the line between experimenting and producing at the highest level?

Those are all long-term questions, but they’ll be answered season-by-season, game-by-game, quarter-by-quarter, and Swish Theory’s Finding a Role series is here to track all of it.

The post Finding a Role: 2024-25 Introduction appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

A tight game in the third quarter, this Western Conference Finals rematch is hotly contested. Luka, who was demoralizingly great against the Wolves in the playoffs last season, is currently working off the ball to get open. 

Tough situation here as a referee.

Luka and Jaden McDaniels are grabbing and pushing and grappling each other with both arms. Who is fouling who in this moment? No whistle on the play, play on.

Due to his devastating nature, Luka has the Wolves desperate to keep him away from the ball and force preferably anyone else to try and make a play. McDaniels is on the top-side of Luka, hoping to deter him from the ball.

Lively is the trigger man here…

…and his ability to make quality reads from the center position adds dimension to the Mavericks offense. In the rare instance Luka doesn’t have the ball, like in this instance, Lively can set Luka up with a handoff and subsequent screen, but Lively can also counter coverage like this by finding Luka on a basket cut. 

He can also do neither if neither are open, to stay as close to error-free as possible. Dallas overall was top 5 in taking care of the ball last season (12.5 turnovers a game), and their entire center rotation of Lively, Gafford and Powell all carried an AST/TO above 1 (1.2, 1.55 and a whopping 2.63 respectively – Powell landing top 5 in the league amongst centers). When Luka is on your team, no need to try to do too much. Hand the ball off, and roll hard. If it’s not a dunk, give the ball back to Luka and Kyrie. Rinse, repeat.

Lively’s ratio was more reflective of his actual decision-making aptitude, as his playoff AST/TO maintained at 1.29 while Gafford’s fell off to 0.79. Some at the time were clamoring for more Lively playoff minutes so the Mavericks could benefit from his passing chops. Here, Lively has the chance to ignite a play.

Another piece of credit on this setup should be given to the Dallas coaching staff and scheme; Lively operating from the top of the key brings Rudy, the Wolves primary rim protector, right up to the 3-point line and far, far away from the rim. 

At this point, Luka has had enough of McDaniels, and will not spend any more energy breaking through this coverage to get to the ball. Instead, Luka plants his right foot down…

…to head to the rim. McDaniels, as long and fast as he is, cannot fully cover both denying him a path to the ball and a path to the basket. But that is the concession of the coverage. 

Lively will need to recognize this slight lean towards the basket in a timely manner (right at this moment) so that the pass can begin to be delivered into space while that space exists. The paint is open at this very moment, but NBA time and space can close quickly.

Gobert’s arms are active here applying ball pressure on Lively…

…because the passing angle for a leading pass into the paint is a prominent and threatening possibility. If Gobert’s peripheral vision is able to capture the Luka lean, he can preemptively have his hands ready to shoot up and deflection a potential entry pass down the middle.

Naji Marshall screening for Kyrie occupies the attention of half of the Wolves’ off-ball defenders.

Donte DiVincenzo cannot be concerned with anyone else’s assignment; his hands are full guarding Kyrie. Naz Reid sits back on the Marshall screen, at the ready to pick up Kyrie if he breaks loose to the basket. 

Meanwhile, the most important defender on the play at this moment is Ant. 

The low-man here, Anthony Edwards appears keyed in on Luka and Lively’s intent. It will be his responsibility to help on Luka, break up the potential pass, or even better, pick it off. 

If the ball is successfully entered to Luka on this cut, Luka will be ahead of McDaniels and the Mavericks will have a momentary 2-on-1 numbers advantage…

…with McDaniels trailing, leaving Dinwiddie unguarded in the corner if Ant slides over. Perhaps if the defensive cohesion is good enough, McDaniels can hand Luka duty off to Ant, and McDaniels can peel off to pick up Dinwiddie. But that is a tough task to pull off fluidly, and it might take a defensive beat or two to get out there otherwise. 

The Mavericks should be slightly favored to score in this moment, granted the pass is executed to access the 2-on-1 advantage. It should be simple math, but in an athletically dynamic arena like NBA basketball, the decisions have to be made instantaneously while windows of opportunity are open, and it may require an intense series of quick decisions. Otherwise windows will close because defensive length and athleticism will close the space, and the offense will again have to spend effort to create. 

In a process of defensive elimination, Luka delivered a dazzling behind-the-back pass. Knowing that Ant had committed with his jump (good verticality by Ant) and feeling that McDaniels was still within arms length, Luka could infer the corner pocket was open. He either had peripheral vision of Dinwiddie in the corner while he was cutting, and/or Dallas will generally have those corners filled. Credit McDaniels with his effort to still make a considerable closeout and contest, but Luka had drawn him all the way to the restricted area, making the closeout just about as long as it could be. 

October 30th, San Antonio at Oklahoma City 

It’s hard not to highlight frames with Chris Paul at the helm. I’ll try not to include him in every edition, it’s just outstanding how he continuously makes the most of the studio space.

Wemby isn’t in the picture, but he’s on the floor. Just a couple seconds prior, he was setting a really high ball screen…65 feet from the basket. The Thunder’s full court pressure can be unrelenting with its personnel and defensive talent. They had just deployed a casual amount of it after a made basket, not allowing Paul to walk it up the floor at his own tempo and coordinate the Spurs’ attack to close the quarter heading into halftime. 

Chris Paul opted to use the screen and speed up into the half-court, getting ahead of his defender Cason Wallace, who has switched onto the absent Wembyana. Jalen Williams has picked up Paul.

A moment prior, Paul was met with some legal opposition from Williams. Jalen had stayed physically disciplined and within his body, not extending any hands out onto CP (who is liable to automatically draw that contact at a moment’s notice). And in anticipation, Jalen had moved to slide his feet in front of Paul’s direction of choice (right), and his physicality was entirely passive contact, absorbing and resisting the strength of the drive to chip off a lot of CP’s downhill momentum as Paul rammed into his chest. Slowed down by the bump and now with the hang dribble, Chris Paul is considering his current array of choices. 

Eight seconds into the possession, OKC’s stout point-of-attack defense has induced Chris Paul to change speeds twice already (the backcourt screen usage ramp up and the bump to slow down), one of which was more elective and the other being more of a hearty, physical welcome upon dribbling inside the 3-point line. 

OKC’s team defense is also looking tight at the moment as well, with all other defenders unassociated with the point-of-attack switch positioned fairly.

Since Chris Paul has not yet entered the paint and his momentum has been severely halted, the Thunder can stay home on their assignments. Jalen has it well-handled at this moment. The stagnancy of Harrison Barnes in the nearside corner and Keldon Johnson on the opposite side…

…does not do Chris Paul any favors here. 

However, the ever-cutting Sochan volunteers. 

Sochan is aware of his value-add as a cutting finisher (and certainly less so as a spacer for Paul’s drive), and here he catches onto the pace that Chris Paul was coming down the floor with. He is trying to at least give Paul the option of a potential wizardly pass somewhere through Jalen Williams and Caruso and Shai. 

Caruso is in a great gap position, further discouraging Paul’s path forward, on top of staying in the middle of an imaginary string between Paul and Sochan, impeding possible passes. 

Caruso had caught onto Sochan’s off-ball change of pace, and is keeping himself in the same depth to the rim as Sochan’s cut, which he knows is a prominent part of Sochan’s half-court game. 

The conceivable deliveries to Sochan are unclear at the moment, and passes to Barnes or Keldon leave the defense mostly indifferent, with Shai and Dort very capable of closing down the space on their respective closeouts here, especially since their off-ball defensive positioning has yet to be strained or even budged on the possession. Wemby is still making his way down the floor. 

In addition to being one of the best passers of all time, Chris Paul is in my opinion one of the most underrated scorers in league history. With the body control of an abrupt stop and gather, Chris Paul gained slight separation from the lightly back-pedaling Jalen Williams, which granted himself another moment to collect. And in the beat between those moments, he found himself at the right elbow, one of his favorite spots, with space to rise up quick. 

The post NBA Freeze Frame: Volume 2 appeared first on Swish Theory.

If your answer is “Nothing, Charlie. What the hell are you talking about?” congratulations—you know as much as I did when I wrote this. Nothobranchius furzeri, known as the turquoise killifish (fire name alert), is a small fish native only to Zimbabwe and Mozambique. It’s known for two distinct reasons.

One, this killifish has the shortest lifecycle of any vertebrate kept in captivity and is a major source of studies regarding lifecycles amongst vertebrates. Thank you, Wikipedia. Two, nothobranchius furzeri reaches maturity faster than any known vertebrate on Earth. It takes each one only 14 days from hatching to become a fully mature killifish. I think you can see where this is going.

Bilal Coulibaly is on a growth trajectory that would make the turquoise killifish raise its eyebrows, if it had any. A veritable ball of French clay as a draft prospect, Coulibaly has (in my mind) solidified himself as the premier prospect in the Washington Wizards system and should compete for the Most Improved Player award. That is nothing short of an astounding leap from his rookie year. He’s gone from a questionable offensive talent with lots of defensive potential to a legitimate All-Defense candidate in the near future with a budding offensive game, nearly doubling his scoring output from his rookie year with a massive jump in efficiency.

How did he do it? This is the part where we find out.

Defensive Overview

If you try sifting through defensive stats to find the goods on Bilal, it’s tough sledding. This Wizards team is 30th in defensive rating after a second-to-last finish this past year and it shows on the tape. Shockingly, 3 rookies and Jordan Poole starting is a bad defensive equation. And when you’re watching a car careen off the side of the road, you’re probably not noticing the nice rims it has. The level to which Coulibaly is overtasked defensively is hard to overstate.

Yet the 20-year-old has shown a lot, and it’s starting to become evident statistically. He’s one of the premier shot-blocking forwards in the league already and continues to grow as a defensive event-creator. The rebounding numbers should be a lot better (more on that later) but second-year players rarely make this kind of impact so early. Let’s dig into how he does it.

On-Ball Defense

One thing I have appreciated about Washington’s development plan is the willingness to throw Coulibaly to the wolves defensively. His rookie year, the coaching staff asked him to take on all kinds of #1 options. That is no different this year as the 20-year-old continues to deal with the best of the best on a nightly basis.

Steph Curry. Jayson Tatum. Jaylen Brown. Trae Young. Donovan Mitchell. In only 10 games he’s been thrown at MVPs and All-NBA talents of varying heights and styles, and acquitted himself well.

If you come at him on an island or in the post, it’s likely to be a problem for you.

Screen navigation has been an issue at some times, something I will be keeping an eye on for future check-ins on Bilal. Even if it’s not perfect, his physical tools and commitment to stick to the play have produced some wonderful recoveries and rear-view contests.

Switching and communication are another thing I’ll be monitoring closely. It’s no surprise that the worst defense in the league struggles to communicate on the whole. Still, Bilal will have to be better given the kind of defensive personnel coach Brian Keefe has at his disposal.

Rookie year Bilal showed defensive promise, and sophomore Bilal is delivering on the promise. The blend of defensive technique and awareness flashes brightly considering his age, and the physical tools speak for themselves. 6’8″ tall and with a 7’3″ wingspan, there is no limit to how high he can climb as a perimeter defender.

Off-Ball/Rotational Defense

With his primary responsibilities coming against the top options, Coulibaly’s responsibilities off the ball start with ball denial. Keep the danger man away from the danger areas. By and large he’s solid at it, and has outright been ludicrous at ball denial in flashes:

There are plenty of lapses and moments of unawareness, however. I want to see those tighten up as the season progresses.

It sounds harsh to expect the 20-year-old to be on the balls of his feet and aware for every second of every game, but Bilal has changed the equation of his expectations in my eyes. I see a great defender blooming so I expect to see greatness. Some of that has certainly showed when given a chance to protect the rim:

If he’s showing these kinds of technical skills, staying vertical and letting his size do the talking, that is promising for his future as a help defender. That fake charge into the block on a veteran wing? Now we’re really cooking.

Gap Filling

Beyond some rotation responsibilities and the ball denial, Coulibaly isn’t relied on as a rebounder in these Washington lineups. Their size dictates that responsibility as well. As you can see with Coulibaly’s top ten lineups this season, he’s more likely to be found playing the 2 guard than the 4:

Still, for a wing, his rebounding numbers could look better considering his prolific wingspan and leaping ability. Even with his on-ball tasks I think Coulibaly could contribute more on the glass. The Wizards are 29th in rebounding rate despite the presence of known board inhaler Jonas Valanciunas, and somebody else has got to help.

These areas to clean up are important but do not come close to overshadowing the on-ball prowess Coulibaly has put on display. The rotational defense flashes put him even further in the green as a defensive presence. This kind of showing from a 20-year-old has me thinking about future All-Defensive teams to come and I can’t wait to see more.

Offense Overview

Okay, so Charlie is writing about another young and exciting defensive wing, right? Surely this offense is going to be a “work in progress.”

Yes, and no. A lot of wings I have written about – Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Peyton Watson – had only begun to lay foundations offensively. One, maybe two reliable skills, and lots of question marks. I would have said the same of Bilal last year; foundations were being laid.

Now he’s truly building. I found myself shocked at the array of skills the Frenchman is showing so far this year, and it’s not just showing on the tape. From 8.4 PPG on 50/35/70 splits, he’s leapt to 15.3 PPG on 65/38/77 splits in this young season. There has been a jump in assists too despite a meager usage spike (13.7% to 16.3%). So how has this increase in production happened?

The simple and true answer is Bilal has just improved at everything.

On-Ball Creation

Much like his defensive development, Washington seems comfortable with letting Bilal get uncomfortable. He’s given free reign by Brian Keefe to create on the ball; his self-creation possessions have jumped from 18% of his offense last year to 35% this year. And somehow he’s increased the efficiency, going from 31% on PNR/handoff/isolation shots to 51% to start this year. The usage shift is deliberate and should continue, but can Coulibaly maintain this efficiency?

The isolation drives have been excellent. He can beat bigger players with speed, use his floater and midrange over guards, and the finishing and footwork have popped.

There are iffy moments, to be sure. He struggles with decision-making out of structure and how to manipulate help when it’s sent. This much help on his drives is new to Bilal and adjustment will include some rough patches.

There are reasons why Bilal’s rim finishing has seen drastic increases, and the willingness to drive on anyone is a huge factor. So far, Coulibaly is 28/31 at the rim this season, up from a 62% mark last year. The drives within the structure of pick-and-roll and handoffs have played a role as well.

Not only is Coulibaly able to beat people with straight-line speed and strength, but he’s also starting to show off a nice set of mixed-speed moves. His touch on floaters opens up plenty of tough looks and it’s hard not to foul someone that big who can throw the right fake or slow down when you least expect it.

His short midrange finishing (between 4 and 14 feet) has doubled from 25% to 50% this season. The overall bump in midrange confidence and efficiency is a very welcome sign for someone trying to open up his downhill looks.

I’ve also enjoyed some of the reads he can make on these handoff and ball screen looks. There’s reason to think the uptick in his assist percentage is a development of skill rather than luck.

He can break the defense down at the rim, get into his floater, and make enough of the right passes to keep defenses on their toes. Another way he does this is with the pull-up midrange counters.

There have been some bad drives as well. Can’t throw a guy in the fire and be surprised when he gets hot sometimes.

Based on the jump in his feel over the past year, I expect him to smooth out the decision-making errors in time. Especially given how everything has developed so rapidly for Coulibaly despite only minor changes in team personnel and competitive circumstances.

I’m stoked to see what he can produce over the rest of the season as he grows accustomed to the two rookies, Kyshawn George and Alexandre Sarr, plus a new roll and cut big in JV. And it’s not the only area of offense where he’s grown.

Off-Ball Usage

As a stationary shooter when off the ball, Coulibaly has one main job: fire when open. He shows little hesitancy to take the right looks, especially when stationed in the corners, where he’s shot well over 40% for his career.

The above-the-break looks have been iffy, coming in at 26% and 29% over the last two years, respectively. It can look fluid at times but you can tell he doesn’t quite trust it yet based on the release speed.

That difference in release speed makes it easier to close out and discourage, even earning him blocks on what should be open looks.

I do enjoy the promise Bilal shows when attacking closeouts. The combination of the floater and finishing skill at the rim make him deadly once he’s past the defender against a rotating defense. If the shot is confident and accurate enough, he will be able to create more opportunities like these with consistency:

His status off the ball last year produced some good cuts off the ball, and that hasn’t changed this season. He’s got the awareness to pick his spots and the explosive finishing to capitalize on those chances.

Brian Keefe has even thrown in some experimentation with Coulibaly as a handoff hub, screener, and designed off-ball looks. Though limited in volume, the results look fun so far and I hope for more to come.

And hey, when you’re as tall and long as Bilal, you will find yourself gobbling up offensive rebounds with good positioning and effort.

It’s exciting to see Coulibaly threaten the defense more without the ball in his hands. An uptick in shooting numbers can open up more opportunities and more designed sets. Based on what I’ve seen with his development, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him dabbling in some movement three looks before the year is up. He’s smashing expectations faster than we can set them, so why not?

Transition Offense

As an excellent run-and-jump athlete, it’s no surprise that Coulibaly thrives in transition. His defensive role guarding perimeter players leaves him tons of chances for leakouts and rim runs, with the odd grab-and-go mixed in just through sheer speed with the ball. A healthy mix of hard fouls and exciting finishes generates him plenty of points in the open floor.

Filling those lanes also gives him plenty of chances to clean up for others on the break. Plenty of opportunities have been there; Washington may have a middle-of-the-pack transition frequency as a team, but their 49.6% field goal percentage in the open floor is one of the worst marks in the league.

Though the decision making in transition could improve a bit, Bilal has flashed some fun passes in transition with the kind of ball placement that gets you excited.

The opportunities in the open floor will always be there for Bilal, and the finishing/athleticism combo already creates a high transition floor. Once the decision-making is ironed out, he could be a top-tier weapon in the open floor. He just needs a defense and a set of playmakers capable of maximizing his tools.

Wrap-Up

If you’re going to break a rule you set for yourself, I suppose it’s best to break it quickly. Get the self-criticism out of the way.

In my last Finding a Role article about Tre Mann, I said I’d avoid career projections for players and let the skills, growth, and stats speak for themselves in a way. But I simply cannot help myself when it comes to projecting Bilal Coulibaly’s future.

He made me take a hard look at the prospects of the last three drafts looking to prove their worth on a second contract and think about how I would rank them. Over those three classes, I’d firmly place Coulibaly in 5th. There’s a top tier of proven franchise player talents (Wemby, Chet, Paolo) and right behind them are the proven talents with tons of upside to tap into. Jalen Williams is at the top of that group in my mind, with Coulibaly trailing, shortly followed by Keegan Murray.

That got take-y. But to try to place the potential outcomes for a player, looking closely at comparable prospects is important. And when looking at the under-the-radar star bets in this league, Bilal is at the top for me. He has so much more to show in the coming months as his development continues on the upward trajectory. It takes a real diehard fan (or a weirdo like myself) to endure the masochism that is watching all Wizards games, but Bilal will make them worth watching for years to come.

The post Bilal Coulibaly: A Star is Born appeared first on Swish Theory.

Watson showed himself to be a potent defensive weapon, on and off the ball, and the toolsy 21-year-old proved himself worthy of the defending champs as they sought to replace a departing Bruce Brown. Offensive struggles were there to be sure, to put it mildly; Watson’s -3.4 offensive estimated plus-minus was the worst mark in the league. A year later, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is gone, and Aaron Gordon is sidelined for at least a month with a calf injury. More than ever the Nuggets need Watson to step into his own.

The move into the starting lineup will be an inflection point for how Denver views Watson’s long-term potential. The thrifty Nuggets front office will look closely at how he responds before an extension-eligible offseason. Is Watson proving himself as a potential starting-type piece, or just another defensive wing struggling to find an offensive niche?

We will focus heavily on the offensive skills here to see how Watson can justify his spot on the floor and prove himself as a capable cog in the machine.

Defense Check-In

Guess what – it’s still great!

At the end of the day, this is a development-based series, so I place very little value in “guy who kicks ass at X skill still kicks ass”. If things had changed, I would indicate otherwise, but Watson is again showing why he is one of the most exciting defensive wings in the league.

The underlying stats are very good. Watson’s 2.4% block rate, a 98th percentile mark amongst forwards, is somehow a career-low for the third-year UCLA alum. The steal rate has increased to an 83rd percentile mark as Watson continues to grow as an event creator. Film backs up what has been an impressive season in rotation, making impact plays all over the floor.

I’ll have my eye on some underlying numbers concerning his off-ball defense; the foul rate is once again troublesome and he’s failing to make a consistent impact as a rebounder. But that’s for another time – we are here to focus on Watson trying to find himself offensively.

Offense Check-In

Cutting

The change over to the starting lineup has placed even more emphasis on this facet of Watson’s offensive game. If you play off Nikola Jokic and you can’t shoot (3/16 from deep this year), you’d better be moving around. Peyton has done a pretty solid job at finding open space and can take advantage of being ignored by the defense.

Consistently finding the right space is already an issue, however. I expect this to improve during his stint as a starter while playing with better spacing and off Nikola but it’s iffy at times. What’s more concerning are the bad finishes at the rim once he finds the space.

Watson is finishing only 43% of his looks at the rim this year, a brutal mark especially when factoring in his size and athleticism. He needs to work on staying within himself as a finisher by not trying to do too much. A little slow-down now and then to draw some fouls would be a boost as well.

An interesting wrinkle to his offensive game has developed over the past few games, one that could help alleviate some of his rim-finishing concerns.

Screening

In 80 games last year, Watson acted as a screen-and-roll option on 15 total possessions. Now through 8 games, he’s been the screener on 5 possessions. For #onpace math-doers, that would put him well on pace to triple that number from the previous season.

There’s been some experimentation with Watson as a guard screener for Russell Westbrook and Jamal Murray early in the season.

What interests me more is the 5-4 screening actions with Jokic. Nikola’s two-man game with Aaron Gordon is a crucial part of the offense, and coach Michael Malone is trying to incorporate those elements in Gordon’s absence with Watson as a substitute.

By no means will Watson screen actions become a focal point of the offense anytime soon, but anything and everything should be tried to overcome his woeful half-court offense.

At least there is one area of the offense he can make a real difference in.

Transition

Watson still looks quite good as a transition weapon, and his bounce has led to most transition defenders hacking him hard to prevent finishes – provided they can catch him.

What concerns me about Watson’s development as a transition weapon is his failure to make the right passing reads. Forcing teams to foul is great, but too often he flies into a crowd while missing easy passes.

He’s made some decent reads out there to be sure, and looks pretty good when keeping his head up to find his passing lanes.

The open floor may be the best way for Watson to contribute to this offense in the short term while finding ways to be useful in the halfcourt. But like his halfcourt game, the lack of overall feel shows.

Here’s hoping Watson can use this time in the starting lineup to further develop his offensive game and find ways he can help his teammates by cutting, screening, rebounding, and filling every gap he can. He shows so much promise on the defensive end of the floor, and much like the Nuggets, I am hoping he can show enough offensively over the next month to warrant his place as a rotation fixture.

The post Finding a Role Check-In #1: Peyton Watson appeared first on Swish Theory.

In the bigger sense of the word, transition applies to the whole organization. It’s the first year without Klay and year two of a new GM. It’s the decision period for the rookies on the 2022 title team. New role-player acquisitions have marked a system-wide transition back to defense and shooting endless threes. But the basketball word transition applies in equal measure.

Last year’s Warriors hated that word. You could argue they were the worst transition team in the league—they were in the bottom three in transition frequency and efficiency. Fast-forward to this year and the Warriors have flipped that on its head. It’s small sample size theater here (it’s that time of year), but Golden State generates 23% of its offensive looks from transition, up from 15% last year. That frequency is a top-three mark in this young season while posting a 57th-percentile efficiency.

A few things drive this – the increase in defensive efficiency and turnover creation chief amongst them, along with the new personnel leaning more towards athleticism from the wing and big spots. Yet one man finds himself at the center of this transformation, and his name is Chavano Rainer Hield, better known as Buddy Love.

Running and Gunning

For some statistical context on Hield’s transition importance, Golden State has 132 total transition chances through their first 5 games. Hield leads the team with 23 of those chances, with Jonathan Kuminga close behind at 20 and Steph pacing the team in opportunities per game (16 in 3 games). What stands alongside the usage is efficiency as the other two biggest contributors are struggling, to be generous. Steph and Kuminga are both 5/18 shooting in transition, numbers that will even out eventually.

Hield will regress to the mean eventually, but a 15/22 mark with a scorching 86.4% eFG certainly catches the eye. Shockingly, the NBA’s leader in threes made over the past 5 years (take a shot for every time you hear Fitz say that on broadcast) is killing teams with his perimeter runs in transition.

He’s not new to this. The 31 year old veteran knows his spots, and you can see him in the first clip call out the lanes to open the corner for his shots. With Golden State’s collection of heady veterans and athletic wings/guards who can push the rim in transition, these looks will be open all year long.

I was impressed that Hield’s transition scoring wasn’t limited to hitting threes. He’s damn good at recognizing leakout chances and capable of creative finishes on the break.

Hield’s 1.7 points per possession in transition is 96th percentile amongst all players. That’s right, stand and applaud the small sample size theater.

So, he’s a great play-finisher in transition. What else can he do?

Chance Creation

The defensive infrastructure of Golden State comes into play now. There is no permutation of Warriors lineups you can create where Buddy is anything other than the worst defender on the floor. Staying in front of guys is not his thing. Looking at the rest of the team, that’s not the end of the world. They have more than enough guys to clean up his messes, and this enables Buddy in multiple ways on the defensive end of the floor to accentuate the transition game.

Again, sample size caveat, be warned. Hield’s stock creation has been on a whirlwind pace by his standards. The steal and block rates amongst wings are both 66th percentile on the nose, and the combined 2.6% rate of defensive event creation would be the highest mark of his career. The second-highest mark came last year in Indiana, in a “same same but different” scenario.

Indiana was an offense-first team with a Ponzi scheme of a defense designed to juice transition as much as possible by gambling for stocks. If we miss the chance, oh well, we will still outscore you. If the gamble works, our offensive talent will surely capitalize. Hield is allowed that same freedom to gamble in Golden State to trigger transition, only this time they have the defenders alongside him to back it up. And when it works, it REALLY works.

What’s key here is that Hield is free to take these chances and run out in transition. Hield is likely being stationed on a weak offensive point for the opponent, so if he takes off and the other team gets the ball back it’s less likely to burn them than, say, Andrew Wiggins taking off.

Hield also shows off some decent playmaking in transition. The guy loves to throw a lob and is adept at negotiating the passing lanes and tic-tac-toe game to find the best looks for his teammates.

What I’m looking for here are the sustainable things. Is Hield going to keep up his 86.4% eFG mark all year? Absolutely not. Can he keep up this gambling and chance-taking to boost transition? I think so.

The Warriors have made big changes to their philosophy based on the new personnel. This new emphasis on transition offense is here to stay, and Buddy Love will be at the center of that all year long. Keep an eye on Hield in the corner of your eye during defensive possessions. See how he picks his chances and puts himself in a position to run and gun. It’s going to be a fun year of strength in numbers and joy in buckets out in the open court.

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