For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

While Indiana’s current successes are not wholly tied to Bruce Brown, he exemplifies ‘why’ they have been successful. Anchored by a multitude of intelligent mistake-free ball handlers, Rick Carlisle has found the formula that has led Indiana to the first-ranked offense in both offensive efficiency and half-court offensive efficiency. This offense resembles a metaphorical ‘greatest hits’ of NBA modern offense, all of which will be explored here. Carlisle has long been an offensive mastermind, and this scheme shows he has kept evolving as the game does.

There is no correct way to run an offense. It depends on your personnel: good and bad plays come down to execution and personal preference. Indiana, however are running the majority of the core concepts you see in modern offense (Zoom, Pistol, Delay, Double Stagger screens, Empty Side Actions). While running such a diverse offense, they are still incredible at ball security, with only two teams turning it over fewer times per game. This points to the fact Indiana has managed to have four high-feel ball handlers on the same roster anchoring their scheme (Haliburton, Brown, Nembhard, McConnell).

Indiana’s offense somewhat reminds me of a quote from the late Johan Cruyff:

“Playing football is very simple, but playing simple football is the hardest thing there is.

A lot of what Indiana does schematically is replicable to an extent. But a big reason they are able to play as they do is because they have stacked together some of the better passers and processors in the NBA. Many believe offense is simple and just about quick decisions and letting hoopers get to their spots. What is often undersold is how difficult this can actually be to achieve. Replicating any perceived ‘simplicity’ of the Indiana Pacers motion offense undersells the execution of their modern concepts, and how rare it is to have stockpiled such a variety of smart ball handlers on one roster. Indiana runs their scheme so well that you are often lulled into thinking it is simple. The variety of cuts and freelance screens are created by their ball handlers and their offensive concepts. It’s a sort of Chicken or the Egg Phenomena in which I lean towards one side.

Early Offense and Spain PNRs

Indiana pushes the pace. Per NBA.com, they take the most shots in the ‘very early’ and ‘early’ ranges of the shot clock. This varies between 22 seconds and 15 seconds. They push for quick hitters out of ‘wide’ ball screens such as below.

This isn’t a novel concept, every team runs it. But pushing these early and often sets up quick advantages that have the defense in rotation early. Indiana are a nightmare to play against because of their early decisiveness.

This is where things get interesting. More often than not, NBA teams will take away this wide ball screen. Giving up early threes and allowing early passes is not something NBA teams want to do. Indiana will often counter this with ‘Wide Reject Spain’. This is one of the more common counters in the NBA but no one runs it better than Indiana.

The Pacers push the ball up and Jalen Smith makes a quick glance behind him to set up the wide ball screen. With Danuel House already top-locking Buddy Hield, the Pacers quickly flow into Wide Reject Spain with Buddy Hield setting a back screen on Jalen Smith’s man. Hield is particularly good on this set, and I’d bet very few guards in the NBA set more screens than him. The result is an easy look for TJ McConnell.

These sets become even more effective when Tyrese Haliburton is the ball handler. Haliburton’s blend of shotmaking and passing isn’t new information to anyone reading this. He’s shooting 54 percent on pull-up threes this season. Even if that regresses to last years measly 41 percent (sarcasm), he’s still one of the very best shotmakers in the game. Here he rejects the ‘reject Spain’ action, taking a filthy step back jumper to the defenders left. I’m unsure what you do with this.

A cruel wrinkle Indiana has started to show is using Haliburton as the back screener. You may be confused by the concept of taking Haliburton off the ball, but it genuinely tortures defenses. This is where Indiana’s pursuit of multiple ball handlers has really shown up, I don’t believe they’d have run this wrinkle last year. Below is how it looks.

Andrew Nembhard initiates the pick-and-roll. With Haliburton being the back screener, De’Anthony Melton has no intent of leaving him. Embiid has to go with the hyper-athletic Isaiah Jackson and the result is Nembhard being able to walk into a good look as there is absolutely no at the level help. Though Nembhard misses, this is still superb process as he’s an elite finisher at the rim and from short-mid-range areas (94th and 79th percentiles respectively).

In their recent demolition job of Philadelphia’s elite defense, they went to this set at the end of the game. This time without the Wide Reject window dressing.

Bruce Brown is the initiator this time. Haliburton sets the back screen and it causes the exact same problem as the previous play. The guard has to stay attached to Haliburton. On this occasion, Embiid ignores the roller and tries to close the gap. It doesn’t matter because Bruce Brown scores off the glass with a superb finish. Brown’s finishing numbers are down overall but he’s still an effective finisher. His addition has opened up more wrinkles such as this one.

They also have mixed ‘Wide Reject’ and ‘Spain’ into out of bounds plays such as below.

This play ends up becoming ‘Wide Reject Get Spain Leak’. They try and bring Buddy Hield off a wide ball screen. They’ll sometimes run ‘wide dribble’ where Hield flips it back to Haliburton. Charlotte knows this and denies it, so Haliburton chases his own handoff (Get Action) and they flow into a Spain PNR where Buddy Hield leaks out. This is a common read Rick Carlisle has used before. He’s had two lead guards with such gravity that the back screen often doesn’t need to be set for the play to work.

Indiana will also get into Spain Pick-And-Rolls out of double stagger screens. Like Wide ball screens, we should class Double Staggers as ‘the easy stuff’. Here’s just a very brief example of what allowing these easy quick hitters might look like. Indiana runs ‘Strong Dribble’.

As you can see, this isn’t exactly hard labour for the Pacers. The Wizards allow the free catch and the play gives Tyrese Haliburton easy momentum for a pick-and-roll. This isn’t exactly something you want to make Indiana not have to work hard for.

These are also commonly top-locked by teams because of Indiana’s shooting talent. They have many reads out of their staggers and though they don’t always lead to instantaneous shots, they are still effective. Here we see ‘Strong Reject Spain’.

DeAnthony Melton is glued to Haliburton, so he drifts inside and becomes the back screener in a Spain Pick-And-Roll set. Melton sees Embiid not showing any kind of help so he has to cover the driving lane which leaves Haliburton open. Notice the sheer panic when this happens. Haliburton’s a special shooter. He didn’t receive the ball on the Wide Reject Spains above but above is an example of what the defense thinks when he does receive the ball after leaking out.

In a recent game against the Sixers, they meshed this concept into something different. I label it ‘Strong Reject Wide Dribble Lob’. Naming doesn’t matter, but watch how mean this play is.

Haliburton is top-locked so he flows to the other side of the court. Obi Toppin who was an original screener, receives a wide ball screen. He flips it back to Bruce Brown (Dribble), but watch Haliburton. He this time sets a back screen for Obi Toppin who had ghosted after flipping the ball to Brown. It ends with a lob for Obi Toppin which only ever ends with one result. Though this isn’t a core or common play, it just shows the versatility and creativity Indiana has with their off-ball screening actions. It also showcases Haliburton’s work ethic, the ability to buy into off-ball screening. Not every star does this and it’s great to see Haliburton doing it. Using him as a screener as opposed to trying to force him onto the ball maintains the egalitarian motion offense Rick Carlisle is trying to run.

They also have another counter from their strong reject series. ‘Strong Reject Ram 77’

Buddy Hield is being top locked, so he goes under the screens and sets the first of two on ball screens (77). Though the play doesn’t instantly get a bucket, the constant activity occupies all defenders and allows Andrew Nembhard to create a bucket off the dribble. Also note Hield and Turner setting a freelance double stagger, and Obi Toppin making a great backcut. This Pacers team makes a lot of smart off-ball reads that make their offense even scarier and harder to defend. Others create advantages, but guys who can elongate and eventually hammer home these advantages matter. It’s another great counter when the easy stuff is taken away.

They have another counter from their strong series. It comes in the form of ‘Oklahoma’ Action. This is part of the double drag series that involves a double drag where after setting an on ball pick, the second screener turns round and sets a screen for the first screener.

Though this doesn’t necessarily fit the criteria for reject, it’s clear Hield is going to get any kind of a shot off the initial stagger screens. So he becomes the first screener in a double drag. Jalen Smith then turns and gives Hield an off-ball screen in Oklahoma Action. This is such a diverse offense with multiple counters. Taking away the ‘easy stuff’ is becoming more common, but Indiana’s mix of diverse counters and smart ball handlers means the second and third reads become easy stuff.

Indiana needs very little excuse to get into any actions they love. They will get into their Spain PNR straight from an out of bounds play like below.

The Pacers are capable of scoring on the easy stuff, but to them, the more complex plays become the easy stuff. They get into their core plays early and often and it’s why this offense is historically great.

Pistol, Doom and Zoom

If you’re trying to collect the greatest hits of any NBA Coach, Pistol and Zoom are always going to be on the agenda. Indiana loves guard screening more than any other team. Per a source with Second Spectrum, no team utilises more guard screens then Indiana. Every team in the NBA uses Pistol entries. And Indiana’s guard screens are not limited to pistol. But think as Pistol guard screening actions as just the tip of the Iceberg for Indiana.

Here’s the most basic look of it.

Pistol entry for Nembhard on an empty side. A simple ball reversal ends in Zoom (Chicago) action that eventually flows into an empty-side action. Per a Second Spectrum source, the Pacers rank inside the top 10 for the frequency of empty-side screening actions. They push them early and had the option twice on this one play.

They also utilise the base ‘Pistol Flare’ action.

This play works because it uses a very effective screen (more on that later) to clear out help defense and stop teams loading up on aggressive strong-side overloads. With the sheer pace that Haliburton operates at, instant advantages are created. Here the play ends with a Myles Turner three. He’s shooting 40 percent on these shots this year. The swinging hypothetical for this team feels as if it will be centered around Turner’s three-point efficiency.

The pistol touches aren’t anything groundbreaking, but like their wide and strong series I like some of their reads and counters. They like to run what I call ‘Doom’ Action, which is simply a cool name for Double Zoom Action. Meaning instead of one screen, you receive two before coming off the handoff. It can also be called Chicago Extra.

Tyrese Haliburton pitches the ball and then sets a screen for Buddy Hield to come off and collect a handoff. The concept doesn’t lead to an immediate shot but it more showcases their offensive philosophy. Constant motion in 5-out looks. No wasted seconds or waiting for stuff to develop. Just constant pass and move basketball. They’ll also get into the action out of ‘Flip’ as they do below.

Flip is a simple concept to get pretty much any player involved, and meshing it with a concept that gets Haliburton starting the play off-ball is excellent scheming. With many teams choosing to invert personnel and just trying to dictate where defenders have to be, you will see a rise in this doom look.

Zoom is a good platform to get the defense moving, but also to get your own players moving. Here’s a play showcasing how Indiana’s fundamentals fit into the actions overall effectiveness.

Constant ball reversals but action with a purpose. The purpose is quite simple. The Pacers are trying to stop gap help as often as possible. Zoom action quite often achieves this purpose, but mixing a flare screen in on the weakside makes the action even harder to defend because the first gap helper (Robert Covington) gets flared by Buddy Hield. It gives Bennedict Mathurin some extra space to work with.

Another way to dissuade gap help is by using the ‘weakside flip’

You can see the Jazz defense zeroed in on the Zoom Action. Teams like to try and congest the slot to deter Chicago Action. But you can see the low man (Keyonte George) is also expecting a flare. The weakside Flip of the screen from Bennedict Mathurin gives Haliburton an extra step which is a gigantic advantage for a player of Haliburton’s level.

Every NBA team runs pistol, it’s not a newsflash. But I hope explaining why it works somewhat adds to the discourse.

Flare Screens, Ghost Screens and other Tidbits

Rick Carlisle’s teams also use guard screens heavily. Sometimes this is to hunt specific matchups. But if you are playing for him, you are going to work offensively. There is no such thing as low usage in the way Rick Carlisle coaches. He expects you to do stuff. His teams utilise both actual guard screens and ‘ghost’ screens.

The Pacers run ‘Iverson Out’. Normally this is run with a big as the screener. But Rick Carlisle wants to get Zach LaVine in the action so Nesmith is the screener. Simple stuff, but has to be noted that Rick Carlisle teams do this at a well above average rate. He once countered a Ty Lue playoff adjustment where Lue put Ivica Zubac on Dorian Finney-Smith to have him as a constant weakside helper, by just running every pick and roll set with Finney-Smith as a screener. This is a philosophy of his, you work and you screen.

They love ghost screens as a team. Here they have two on one possession which ends with Bennedict Mathurin getting an empty side all to himself.

Note how Mathurin sets a ghost screen himself before getting one to give him a look from his area of the floor. It’s a further reminder of how these players put in work off the ball.

I also like how Indiana involves their guards in ‘double drag’ actions, known as 77 Action.

Here they use Tyrese Haliburton as the second screener. Like the Spain plays earlier, this does scare the defense. It’s opened up heavily by Indiana’s variety of smart ball handlers, but part of it is also Rick Carlisle’s philosophy. You will be involved.

They’ll mix ghost screens into their late-game offense.

The Pacers use Haliburton as a fake flex screener then have him dart to the top of the key. Buddy Hield ‘ghost screens’ for him and the initial separation eventually leads to an open bucket.

Here’s why ghost screens work. It attacks good defensive practices. Players will position themselves high to try and delay the ball handler.

Gordon Hayward is showing at the level, but when Hield ghosts the screen he has to go with him because of his shooting gravity. This creates a corner for Tyrese Haliburton. An easy answer is to switch this action but this is also a big reason Carlisle loves incorporating guard screens into his base motion offense. It’s not got the normal sluggishness of switch hunting if you mesh it into your plays.

This takes me to the final, and perhaps most important part of the article. The Indiana Pacers love flare screens. We have many screens in Basketball, dozens of them. But with the way modern NBA defenses are operating, the Flare Screen might be the most important one in the League. Let’s explain why.

Though there are 30 NBA teams who all have slightly different defensive philosophies, there are a few constants across most of the NBA. These are ‘No Middle’, and nail help. These go slightly hand in hand as it’s tough to deny the middle without nail help. But these are the cornerstones for most NBA teams. Flare screens are the most effective screen to attack these.

Indiana runs ‘iverson out’ for Tyrese Haliburton. He is important to explaining this play. More often than not, teams like to load up on empty-side actions because they are so difficult to defend. When you add someone such as Tyrese Haliburton to the equation it’s downright terrifying. Teams will load up on early help early in the shot clock as they do here.

There are four players watching a two-man action. This isn’t bad defense, it’s by design. It’s where no middle comes in. If Jordan Clarkson is on Bruce Brown like he would be in a traditional defense, Tyrese Haliburton is almost certainly going to get to the middle. No Middle has always been a preference for coaches such as Tom Thibodeau, but it feels as if it’s become the rule in modern NBA defense. It’s non negotiable. Below is why the flare can beat this.

If a defense is defending with a sort of zonal concept (overloading the strong side), then a flare screen can attack it. Myles Turner lingering inside the arc as opposed to being on the three-point line obviously helps, but it’s not required. It is almost a way to protect your core offense and empty-side actions. Remind the nearest nail helper that if he glances too far, he’s going to get flare screened.

In an era where teams genuinely are just loading up on primary guys and trying to rob you of vertical drives into the paint, the flare screen is more important than it’s ever been. The achilles heel of a flare screen comes with regards to how much skill the person catching the ball has as both a shooter and a driver. With Indiana having so many ball handlers, they’re extra effective.

Will Hardy’s Utah Jazz also use the concept, notably to support empty-side actions.

These are embedded into Indiana’s offense. They don’t just come during set plays. Below is an example.

Tyrese Haliburton goes into a pick-and-roll. Myles Turner sets a flare screen that would give Aaron Nesmith a wide-open three if Hali decided to use it. If you think I’m over exaggarating these flare screens, just know I’m not. Not every team does these, and there certainly aren’t many teams with them embedded into their basic off-ball reads. They’re automatic.

Aaron Nesmith in particular is a really active screener in freelance or broken situations. The play below illustrates this.

TJ McConnell pushes in early offense to no avail. Nesmith receives the ball, plays the skip pass then ghost screens for Tyrese Haliburton and pops off a flare screen to the empty corner. This leads to easy ball movement for a bucket on the inside. Ghost screens and flare screens are a major part of this offense and mixing them into the same play is never a bad idea.

On this play, Bennedict Mathurin uses the gravity of Tyrese Haliburton to his own advantage. He briefly sells a flare screen which forces Jordan Clarkson to stay inside (no middle), then he actually ghosts the screen and gets a wide open three. Again, watch the flare screen on the weak side of the play. It’s just automatic with this team.

As I’ve noted previously, Indiana have counters upon counters. They even have these for flare screens. It involves actually setting fake flare screens and incorporating them into their offense. Here’s an example.

The Pacers go into a pick-and-roll, and again you see the weakside flare screen designed to occupy any potential help defenders. The Wizards play it which gives the environment required for ‘veer’ action to work. On this occasion the flare was really a decoy designed to create space for the veer action. They’ll run this for both Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin and it was part of their playbook last season.

Wrapping Up

Overall, the Pacers offense is pretty special. This is a team that has acquired an insane amount of high-feel players and built the correct system around them. It’s an offense that is basically running all the greatest hits of modern basketball offenses, but running them better than everyone else.

There is a common theorem amongst coaches regarding the attitude of ‘plays can be stopped, but concepts can’t’. I don’t fully agree with this sentiment, because sometimes you need to run the right plays for your concepts to shine through. Indiana are a team who support my theory on this. What they do might look easy to replicate, but the Cruyff-like simplicity with which they play does not correlate with it taking little effort. It is a result of having acquired an amount of feel across the roster that many teams have never had. This hasn’t happened by accident, it’s what they’ve built towards. Replicating this or trying to be a copycat, may end up being a fools’ errand.

The post Rick Plays the Hits: The Concepts Fueling the Indiana Pacers’ Leading Offense appeared first on Swish Theory.

After being a lottery choice by the Boston Celtics and beginning to establish a rotation spot at the end of his sophomore season, he was dealt over the offseason to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for current Trailblazers guard Malcolm Brogdon. Not only did he have to change cities, but a particular tweet set something off inside him.

In the reactionary culture of disrespect and inhumanity that is NBA aggregation social media (led by the bright minds at Bleacher Report, in my opinion), a former lottery pick beginning to break out was boiled down to a Spongebob meme.

Nesmith took this personally, determined to make Bleacher Report look silly for the disrespect they sent his way.

As he begins his second season in Indiana, having secured a 3-year/$33M contract extension, Aaron Nesmith is far more than a paperclip and some string.

Offense Overview

Nesmith is beginning to see a defined offensive role with an up-and-coming Indiana squad. He’s the guy who occupies the corners as a shooting threat, relocates and lifts to the wings when the offense calls for it and slashes to the rim if the defense sells too hard to stop his shot. His shot chart on Cleaning the Glass reflects this development of his role:

He’s been firm from deep since arriving in Naptown: 39.3% from the corners on 168 attempts, and 36.6% on 194 attempts above the break. That’s not going to break the defense by any means. But when teams are keyed in on Tyrese Haliburton‘s on-ball creation and Buddy Hield‘s off-ball movement, a strong corner guy who can lift is an important complementary piece. Let’s look closer at how his shooting role has blossomed.

Developing Shooting Versatility

It’s important to start with the form. Nesmith has quietly turned up the speed on his shot, moving from 1 to 1.5x speed like an ADHD-laden podcast listener. This has opened up a further tree of shots he can get off as the contest arrives.

Jordan Poole is sagging slightly off Nesmith in the corner, but it’s still a tight window to get the release off before the shot contest arrives. The speed of the release works to create a more open shot that a slower gather would turn into a contested one.

He doesn’t necessarily have to hit the turbo button on ALL of his releases. When he has an extra beat to step into a shot, he knows when to take it in order to compose himself.

Beyond spotting up from the corners and the occasional spot-up wing 3, Nesmith shows a knack for when to lift and relocate, opening himself up to easier passes and making reads simpler for the ballhandlers.

The initial Myles Turner screen for Buddy Hield‘s flare gets nowhere with Jevon Carter blowing it up, so they flow into a middle dribble handoff with Nesmith in the strong corner. Drummond plays in a higher drop, meaning DeMar DeRozan will tag from the strong corner. Aaron reads this fluidly, knowing that lifting from the corner will create an easier read for Hield. If he stuck in the corner, DeRozan would have a chance of deflecting the pass. Even though the shot is missed, that is quality process from a young wing to make life easier for his cohorts.

Here’s another example below of reading his man and how to manipulate:

With Georges Niang guarding him, both Nesmith and Jalen Smith realize a little movement can go a long way. Smith comes to set the flare as the offense begins to flounder, timing it well with the Bruce Brown middle drive. Tristan Thompson, not known for being fleet of foot, is unable to get out to get a quality contest as Niang dies on the screen. Cash from the break.

I’ve also enjoyed what Nesmith’s shooting combined with his functional strength as a screener can open up for the offense. Here’s another possession taking advantage of the Georges Niang matchup, this time directly in the action:

Niang flashes on the ball to deter Haliburton and let Isaac Okoro, knowing he will get destroyed if he fully switches the screen. The good screen forces a long flash, and Nesmith fades across the top of the arc, drawing a long closeout from Niang in recovery. A nice jab step makes Georges think about the drive, opening up a clean look that he bottoms. That’s some excellent leverage of his shooting ability to accentuate the danger that Tyrese brings to the floor.

Here’s a different example of screening for Haliburton in order to test the switching of the defense. Charlotte likes switching with their smaller lineups and is also determined to deny Haliburton’s scoring. With the side cleared for the screen action, Nesmith comes to screen and fades to the corner. PJ Washington doubles early trying to help out LaMelo Ball, so Hali floats it to the corner as Mark Williams is forced into the long closeout (due to the cleared side). Nesmith has time to compose himself before splashing from the corner.

Though he doesn’t exactly have a long leash to handle on the ball, there are small glimpses of dribble threes when called for. With former Vanderbilt teammate Darius Garland trying to close him out in the corner, Aaron sees the desperation closeout coming and uses a slick dribble relocation to get himself a better shot:

Nesmith doesn’t have the most prolific midrange game (36th percentile amongst forwards last season), but he shows quality coordination and a package of moves to get there when the offense calls for it. Even if it’s just 1 shot per game on average, it serves to keep the defense guessing.

Granted, we are only 1/8th of the way through the season, but a scorching 46% mark from deep (54% corners, 38% ATB) is going to force defenses into some tough decisions. He’s exploring what he can do off movement and relocation to boot, a great sign that we are headed for a breakout perimeter scoring season. It also serves to open up what has been the most impressive part of his game:

Loud Drives

Going into this article, I really expected to see a mixed bag here. I was absolutely floored by what I saw on the tape. You rarely expect a “closeout attacking” guy to pop, but my eyes were flying at the screen like a Looney Tune.

What struck me the most was the incredible balance he shows while flying into the paint from the corners, often at full speed:

Navigating the baseline without taking charges and getting these kinds of finishes impressed me to a high degree. I couldn’t find drives where he pressed too hard or predetermined when he was going to drive either, which is a major sign. He’s quickly reading and reacting to how the defense plays his shot and choosing his spots to drive based on those reads.

That kind of selectivity was also present on non-corner drives. He knows when to press his advantage against an unsettled or subpar defender, and has enough handle to beat them:

Catching Jaylen Brown (he’s not a good defender – wake up, sheeple) flat-footed and drawing the foul is impressive. Going after Kristaps Porzingis with the rim protection drawn out and using the rim to shield a tough reverse finish is superb awareness and execution.

Nesmith’s creation off the drive (creation in general, really) doesn’t jump off the page. He has one of the lowest assist rates amongst all forwards, but there are momentary flashes of playmaking excellence based on how the defense defends his drives.

There are moments where the aggression delivers something spectacular, as you see on this corner drive:

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has leveraged this success on the drive into quick, repeatable offense for Nesmith by running dribble handoffs. Giving Aaron momentum and playing off the leverage that his shot creates has generated some very nice results so far in the young season.

Notice how the “delay” action from Jalen Smith clears a side for the handoff, putting the potential help right in front of Nesmith and allowing him to read with ease as he powers to the cup. That’s how you put things on a plate for a young potential creator.

Another instance of powering right through the perimeter dig, only this time Nesmith is presented with a much tougher task of finishing over Evan Mobley. Aaron hits him with a drag step to put the DPOY candidate behind the play and finishes high off the glass for good measure.

This part of Nesmith’s game gets me incredibly excited for his future. Being a guy who shoots well from outside and can slash from time to time already keeps you on the floor. Running a DHO now and then in addition to some strong mismatch attacks on the drive takes him to the next level of offensive utility. What can he unlock next?

Now, let’s dig into the last major area of offensive strength:

Glass Crashing

You want to talk excitement? Watch Aaron Nesmith going for an offensive rebound in a crowd.

Flying in from the perimeter, fighting through a boxout, or just flat-out wanting it more than the other guy. There are a lot of different ways that Nesmith can win on the glass.

I would be remiss if I didn’t put in this play I titled “attempted murder” in my clips folder:

If someone tried doing this to me at a 24-Hour Fitness, I would be compelled to throw hands just to regain some of my honor. Granted, I would only make a further ass out of myself, but it’s the principle of the thing.

At 6’6″, Nesmith is in the 57th percentile of forwards this season in terms of offensive rebounding. Though not on elite levels, he is usually much shorter than his counterpart, so he has to find creative ways to win. The fact that he does it at a well above-average level is nothing to sneeze at.

The top 8 lineups Indiana uses Nesmith in, according to total possessions, all involve him playing the 4. A league-average team offensive rebounding rate is roughly 27%; six of those eight Nesmith lineups clear that threshold, with the most used lineup pulling down 35% of their own misses. Obviously, there are four other guys out there helping with that number, but the common throughline is Aaron’s infectious energy and effort.

Growth Areas

Right now, Nesmith slots in as a quality off-ball wing with plenty of shooting, a splash of driving, and a strong nose for the ball on the offensive glass. At 24 years old and locked in with his team for at least the next three seasons, the question becomes what else he can add.

First and foremost, I’d like to see Nesmith add more midrange counters to his attacks. As you can see from the shot chart earlier, it’s threes, rim attempts, or nothing. Granted, those are the two most valuable shots. That doesn’t mean a midrange attempt from him would be a bad shot if attacking the closeout in front of the help defense, or making the defense pay for a deep drop on his dribble handoffs. Nesmith hasn’t been the highest-quality midrange shooter throughout his young career, especially in the shorter-range looks, but some extra repetition would be a boon. If anything, it would just make the defense think twice and open up more rim looks.

Another thing you may have noticed, concerning his finishing attempts, is that very few of them come with the left hand. This has severely limited his available tree of finishes; though he can make tough reverse finishes going around the rim or inverted finishes on the left side of the rim, it would be nice to see some development on that end. This would also enable Indiana to run some of the current DHO looks from the right wing of the floor, so he can dribble left-handed into the rim and use his left for finishes. Without it, defenses can key in on his tendencies and will have an easier time preventing his effective looks in the paint.

Lastly, I’d like to see an improved sense of playmaking from Aaron. He can create well by getting downhill and collapsing the defense, but he needs to mix in more passes on those drives. Sure, he can finish really well even with multiple defenders committed, but he tends to miss layoff passes or kickouts to the high-quality shooters on the team. That would be an extra layer to add that helps him take the next leap offensively.

Now, let’s dig into the less glamorous side of the ball.

Defensive Overview

The defensive catch-alls are tough to parse out with Nesmith. Indiana currently has the second-highest pace of any team in the league, and surrenders the second-most points per game with the fourth-worst defensive rating around. The ridiculous offense has turned them into a good team, but it makes it more difficult to figure out who is helping this defense keep things together (if you can call it that) vs. who is actively harming it.

To me, Nesmith solidly falls in the former group. Indiana concedes just north of 120 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but underneath that are some strong lineups. Three of the five most common Nesmith lineups that Indiana uses have a defensive points per 100 of 106.7 or lower; that 120 mark is being reached because of the second most common lineup, which features a Tyrese Haliburton/Bennedict Mathurin backcourt that concedes over 150 points per 100. Below is an approximation of what Hali/Benny perimeter stopping feels like.

I won’t pontificate too much on why Nesmith is better than the numbers would suggest. Let’s look deeper at the film.

On/Off Ball Event Creation

On subpar defensive teams, creating steals and blocks is a major tool to keep their heads above water. It serves both to cover for mistakes and juice the transition offense, which for Indiana is quite good. Since Nesmith’s arrival, he has been strongly above-average in defensive event creation. Last season, his steal and block rates were 63rd and 67th percentile (respectively) amongst forwards, and he is on a similar track through the start of this season, creating 2.1 defensive events per 75 possessions.

The steals are far more sustainable given his length (+6 wingspan) and overall hustle. He’s able to generate some of these simply by getting hands in passing lanes that others could not reach with his size.

Nesmith is disciplined about keeping his arms up to prevent passing windows and has quick hands to disrupt ballhandlers when the opportunity presents itself. Many of the steals are generally born out of hustle. Nesmith was highly regarded for his motor coming into the draft, and you rarely catch him with his foot off the gas pedal.

Look at the score on that clip. This kind of hustle will endear you to coaches, and make opponents resent you, which is a great spot to be in as a defender.

I also enjoyed the block creation from Nesmith. His sense of timing, verticality, and a dash of explosive athleticism have produced some defensive virtuosity.

The last possession impressed me the most. With Myles Turner switched out on the perimeter, Nesmith represents the last-ditch defense for a 5-out pick-and-roll with Paul Reed. Aaron gets himself in position at the last second for a do-or-die shot contest in the restricted area. You wouldn’t fault him for wrapping up Reed and forcing him to get points at the line in this scenario. Instead, he meets Reed at the apex with verticality to force a tougher finish and prevent the points entirely. That’s the goods right there.

There are other instances of Nesmith being a heady defender, working through switches to contain the opposition and still managing to create events:

This is a nice set by Cleveland. Caris LeVert sets the initial backscreen to force the switch from Andrew Nembhard off Darius Garland, which acts as window dressing for LeVert cutting into an empty lane. One hiccup: Nesmith reads it, peels off Garland once LeVert is committed to the roll, and packs the shot off the backboard. That’s a blend of athleticism and awareness that makes me giddy.

With Indiana struggling to form a good defense, Nesmith continuing to spin gold out of twine is going to be necessary. This is especially true with his off-ball creation, as teams will continue to attack Haliburton and Mathurin with gusto, and they need someone other than Myles Turner to clean up the mess.

Perimeter Stopping

We’ve established that Nesmith is a great vertical and straight-line athlete, but perimeter stopping takes more on the margins to really stand out. Quick feet and quicker hips are the keys that unlock a true stopper. Aaron has showcased that he has both in spades on several occasions.

On the above play, his hips are initially opened to the left anticipating a screen, but Strus rejects it in the hope that he can catch Nesmith a step late on the empty side. However, Aaron is too quick, closing down space in a split second and sticking to the drive to force a tough floater attempt. Not on his watch.

Here’s another example of those hips in action:

He’s no Shakira, but that is some quality hip movement. He does end up a step high after the second flip which gives Terry Rozier a window for the drive, but this is where the athleticism and length can make up for small positioning mistakes. That is a common theme of his perimeter game: physical tools making up for small mistakes.

He angles his hips the wrong direction on the above play against Malaki Branham, a similarly explosive athlete. But he’s able to flip himself back in the right direction after realizing the error, moving his feet well and using that off arm to force a tough attempt at the rim. Again, the benefits of having that 7-foot wingspan.

That athleticism/length combination also serves him well in trail defense. As his screen navigation is still a work in progress, he finds himself behind the play quite a bit, but has a unique ability to get himself re-involved even after being detached with a good screen:

What impressed me the most was the variety of matchups Nesmith is asked to take on. With Indiana employing lots of switching in lineups with him at the 4, he often found himself on much bigger players that could put the ball on the deck. I was surprised at how well he contained those matchups.

Though the above play ends in a foul, I still think he does a great job embracing Giannis’ physicality in order to force a tougher shot. Most wings would simply end up having a dunk land on their head, so credit where credit is due.

It generally feels like teams are figuring out “how can we beat this guy?” in a variety of ways. In this instance, Gordon Hayward tries to win by backing down Nesmith:

Look how focused Nesmith is on keeping Hayward out of the restricted area. He’s getting low to establish leverage, moving his feet to cut off angles, and using that off hand to prevent a layup while using the inside hand for further leverage. Outstanding stuff there.

This isn’t to say he is without mistakes. Nesmith is still working on his angles and how to set up initially to contain drives. It certainly gets him in trouble at times.

This is a problem that shows up often when screens are present on the handler he is trying to contain. To me, that is his biggest area of growth to work on as a perimeter stopper. He needs to work on feeling the screen coming, getting himself in the proper position to deny the easy looks, and being proactive with his screen nav instead of reactive. Anticipate, adapt, overcome. That’s the name of the game.

Now, on to the last portion of his defensive game that caught my eye.

Strength/Length Enabling Switching

We saw above how Nesmith’s functional strength and wingspan advantages help him contain bigs that can put the ball on the deck. But what happens when the bruisers of the league get him on a switch and try to back him under the basket?

You’ve probably guessed, given the tenor of this article: it doesn’t go well for the bigs.

They can clear a side, take away all the help they want, and put their biggest guy in the post on him. It doesn’t seem to matter. The low leverage he creates, combined with the aforementioned strength, means Nesmith is not easy pickings for even the most adept post-up bigs. The season is young, but players are only 2/8 when testing Aaron in the post, good for 0.73 points per possession.

But, this isn’t to say that Nesmith is perfect by all accounts. This brings us to our last section, covering both offense and defense.

Brain Farts

Nesmith is prone to some lapses in judgment on both ends. There are also some general miscues that can be tough to explain at times.

On the offensive end, Nesmith can get a little carried away at times, leading to some head-scratching turnovers.

You could have called two separate travels there in all likelihood. Talk about happy feet.

Then you have this one, where frankly I’m not sure what the plan was:

There are smaller lapses too. This one felt like an NFL receiver looking upfield before he secures the catch:

It doesn’t help that he gets behind the play by hesitating momentarily, leaving his teammate alone to handle the 2v1 fast break.

On the defensive end of the floor, Nesmith has a serious problem with pump fakes. He’s not the first or the last young perimeter defender with that issue (heck, even some of the olds still have it) but it feels like every single one works.

It’s not the worst, but it’s something to monitor as he takes on more defensive responsibility. At the pace that Indiana plays at (see what I did there?), guys are going to be flying around. He needs to learn to keep himself in check and play under more control, but without sacrificing the aggression that makes him so good.

Instances like the one below were also common. X-ing out the wing shooters is basic stuff for a wing defender, even one as young as Nesmith. He can’t afford to be consistently late in recognizing it and doing his duty:

Some of these brain farts are just funny, some are a bit more concerning. Having some lapses now and then is fine, but the out-of-control turnovers, biting on fakes constantly, and failing to X-out can be real problems. It’s something worth monitoring going forward.

Speaking of…

Future Outlook

It’s possible Nesmith never rises above the level of a strong rotation player or 4th/5th starter. But that’s more than fine considering what Indiana is paying him (roughly 7% of the cap over 3 years), and what he was acquired for.

There are two NBA misconceptions at play here. One, development isn’t linear. Some guys take a while to find it, some hit the ceiling early and continue chugging on at a certain level. It’s often very difficult to predict either.

Second, a late lottery pick turning into a rotation guy isn’t a disappointment by any means. The Pacers bought low on him in the Brogdon trade, and have seen a strong return on that investment. Even if Nesmith caps out at where he is already, that’s still a great piece to have.

This isn’t to say that Nesmith has reached his ceiling. A breakout in terms of expanded offense and true lockdown defense might be in the cards, and I am inclined to think more is coming if the shooting breakout continues. He has all of the physical tools in his bag and has shown a lot of awareness on both ends of the floor. Guys like that have very few limits and will go as far as they want to go.

Aaron Nesmith is one of the more entertaining role player watches in the league, and as the star of Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers (hopefully) continues to rise, there will be more eyes on their two-way wing. I, for one, am extremely excited to see where he goes from here.

The post Finding a Role: Aaron Nesmith appeared first on Swish Theory.