This conference finals matchup is bound to be a great battle focusing on the dualities of each team’s approach. Denver with their offense centering around, well, a center in Nikola Jokić as he’s literally in the middle of everything they do. Whether it be in the middle of the free throw line, on the block, or on the perimeter—when Jokić is on the court, he’s the center of attention, and for very good reason. 

Whereas for LA, their offense is more of an egalitarian approach where their leading scorer, LeBron James, is only at 23.8 points per game for this playoff run, compare that to Jokić who is at 30.7 points per game. James also leads the Lakers in touches at 71.6 per game which pales in comparison to the Nuggets’ two stars with Jokić at 110.9 touches per game (1st in the league this postseason with the difference between #1 and #2 being the difference between #2 and #27) and Jamal Murray at 85.6 (9th in the league this postseason). 

These two teams offer different questions for the other to solve which should make for a super entertaining chess match between two of the league’s best.

Matchups

For Denver:

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on D’Angelo Russell
• Jamal Murray on Austin Reaves
• Michael Porter Jr. on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Aaron Gordon on LeBron James
• Nikola Jokić on Anthony Davis

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Jamal Murray
• D’Angelo Russell on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Michael Porter Jr.
• LeBron James on Aaron Gordon
• Anthony Davis on Nikola Jokić

With Denver having a stout defender in Aaron Gordon to matchup with LeBron, the rest of the frontcourt comes into question. And a question that could have an important outcome in this series is “Who is ‘guarding’ Jarred Vanderbilt?” 

Why should you pay attention to the person guarding a 25% 3PT shooter, you ask? 

Well, it is a question of whether Denver wants to help off of Vanderbilt or hide on Vanderbilt. In LA’s previous series, Vanderbilt’s spacing issues were causing a big problem for the Lakers offense as both series went on, and ultimately reached an inflection point in Game 6 of the 2nd round vs the Golden State Warriors where they pulled the plug on Vanderbilt as a starter and replaced him with Dennis Schröder, the veteran speedy ballhandler. The Warriors were helping off of Vanderbilt at any chance they could get if that meant it would slow down an attack from LeBron or Davis. And well, I would assume that would be the same approach from Denver and the Eastern Conference team the Lakers would face if they make it to the Finals. 

However, Denver is known to mix up their matchups particularly when it comes to who Jokić is assigned to. Jokić had multiple sequences in their series against Phoenix where he was guarding a non-shooter like Josh Okogie and it threw an interesting wrench into the Suns’ offense when it happened. 

As for the Lakers, these are the standard matchups and I would not be surprised if these are different even in Game 1. With Vanderbilt’s questionable fit alongside LeBron and AD, Darvin Ham could look to another starter to begin this series and would change the matchups completely. But if Vanderbilt still does start, I could definitely see him guarding either one of Murray or Porter Jr. as the coaching staff pretty much trusts him on anybody. 

As Davis will have his hands full with Jokić, I would look to LeBron guarding Gordon to a similar degree that the Nuggets will guard Vanderbilt and also how the Lakers guarded players on the Warriors and Grizzlies — simple not caring if they were to launch threes. LeBron’s best defensive role for a good amount of years now is as a helper and potential roamer where he can be a pest in passing lanes, take charges in driving lanes, and come over for huge blocks if that is the last resort. LeBron will also have to be wary though of Gordon’s cutting and his impeccable chemistry with Jokić where the latter will find the former as soon as there is an opening in the defense. 

Denver’s Advantages

Going into this matchup as the #1 offense in the playoffs, Denver will pose a different threat to the Lakers’ defense they really haven’t seen this postseason. Not only is it pretty post-centric but the guy that can post up can also space you out and that could be the real concern. 

In the recent years of Jokić’s dominance throughout the league, which incidentally came after the loss to the Lakers in the 2020 Bubble, he has been a tough matchup for AD and he is of the build of player that AD can have trouble against. With his high center of gravity, Davis can often look light when going against bulky 7-footers will a low center of gravity and they can move him around a bit. Guys like Jokić, Ivica Zubac, or Jusuf Nurkić all fit the description and have given AD more trouble than you would think from a defensive player of his caliber. While Davis will definitely make him work, I think Jokić will have the edge over him in those 1-on-1 battles in the post that will inevitably happen.

If Jokić is not in the post, however, he can still stretch Davis out with his ability to shoot and if Davis provides no pressure to Jokic on the perimeter, it will give him ample amounts of time to read the floor and play make as one of the league’s best in that category. This will be a challenge the Lakers will have to solve throughout the series since they won their first two series by stationing Anthony Davis near the rim as best as they could through all methods and it worked to near perfection. With Jokić operating a lot from the top of the key and elbow, that alone can pull Davis out from under the rim and other Nuggets’ players will feel much more free at the rim when Davis’ presence isn’t near. 

Denver is also a more controlled and secure offense in comparison to the Grizzlies and Warriors who both ranked in the bottom-7 in most turnovers per game by playoff teams, meanwhile, Denver ranks 1st, giving up the fewest amount of turnovers this postseason. This matters a ton for the success rate of the Lakers’ defense of course but also hinders their transition game as well if they don’t turn the Nuggets over enough. 

With Aaron Gordon’s phenomenal work on Kevin Durant in Denver’s previous series, he will be a formidable defender to have the LeBron assignment. Strangely enough, Gordon is one of the few defenders who actually match up in stature and frame to LeBron which could provide an interesting challenge for the legend at this stage of his career. 

I expect Denver to be flying up the court in transition at every opportunity that arises. The Lakers’ transition defense has left a lot to be desired with the number of athletes and high-IQ players on the team. If Denver is able to fly in transition while also being a problem in the halfcourt offense and on the offensive glass, they could spell trouble for the underdogs very quickly.

Lakers’ Advantages

Throughout the LeBron and AD era, the Lakers have had one offensive identity—attack the rim. In the regular season, the Nuggets allowed the 3rd highest FG% at the rim and it has always been a weakness of theirs in recent years. In the regular season with LeBron and AD both healthy and playing, the Lakers have had a 4-1 record over the Nuggets since 2019-20 and that doesn’t include the 4-1 series win over Denver in the Bubble. During the regular season and postseason, the Lakers have always been a tough matchup for the Nuggets although this year, Denver is fielding easily their best supporting cast around Jokić since his birth as a star in this league. 

Rim protection is one of Jokić’s biggest weaknesses as a player and the Lakers will make sure to exploit that when they have the chance. With LeBron and AD being two of the best rim attackers in the league, I’m sure their minds will be made up on getting to the rim and it will be up to the Nuggets to stop them from getting there which was their plan in that 2020 series. 

In that 2020 Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets stunted extremely hard off the Lakers’ role players whenever LeBron had the ball in a concerted effort to make him beat them off of jumpers and it was a good strategy. Before Game 5, LeBron only averaged 24 points per game and in Game 4, he shot 7-of-18 from the field. But in Game 5, James had one of those statement games where he reminds you that sometimes, it just doesn’t matter. 

That’s how the previous series ended off and one might ask, what has changed since then? Well, the Lakers have shooters. And those shooters are also ballhandlers that can create for themselves and for others. And LeBron is not as on-ball dominant as he once was which can throw the defense for a loop in that his attack will not be as predictable. 

In the December 16th matchup between the two teams, LeBron how devastating that versatile skillset can be especially when he has a favorable matchup at the rim. He killed Denver on cuts through the defense when the attention shifted off of his which made for some highlight dunks and uber-efficient possessions. 

With this current version of LeBron in the postseason, I think we could see this a lot as a way of offense for him when not creating on-ball like so many of us are used to him doing. 

And while there is so much talk around how the Lakers will guard the Nuggets, Denver will probably be the most advantageous defense to the Lakers that they will see this postseason. In the Grizzlies and Warriors series which feature two top defenses and two All-Defensive defenders, the Lakers got stuck in the mud a few times and the other teams were able to stall out LA’s pick-and-roll offense and pet actions. I just don’t see that being the case in this series. 

In the regular season, the Lakers were able to go back to an ol’ reliable play from the ‘19-20 season when nobody really had an answer for it: the LeBron and AD pick and roll. Ever since then, teams have just switched that action and would much rather one of those two attack individually vs help instead of combining to convert a masterful possession. Now, with Davis sliding to be a full-time center, that means Jokić will match up with him and if the Lakers run that LeBron and AD pick and roll, would Denver want to switch Nikola Jokić onto LeBron James? No! At least that’s what the film says and it drew great results for the Laker offense. 

Also with Jokić being on AD, that opens up a Lakers pet action of the AD wide pin-down where he sets up in the corner and a guard sets a pin-down screen for AD to curl off of and attack while on the move. I’d imagine this would be a difficult action for Jokić to guard given that centers usually aren’t used to running around screens and that’s why it’s so effective. 

On top of the offense being unlocked a bit, the Lakers’ defense has sneakily been one the best in the league at slowing down the Joker with smart tactics from the coaching staff. While some think letting Jokić cook in the post 1v1 all game is the key to beating Denver, LA has actually found success in smartly sending help to Jokić to effectively get the ball out of his hands without him realizing the advantage quick enough and also the Nuggets players not executing quick enough either. 

The Lakers used a heavy diet of helping from the strong side then bumping the next defender over to help the helper. This causes a chain reaction within the defense and the original helper’s new man will be the one in the weakside corner after he helps on Jokić. Since some of Joker’s first reads were taken away and the Nuggets didn’t weren’t ready to be thrown a Jokić pass that didn’t really create that much of an advantage, the offense sputtered at times in those regular season matchups and it was pretty much all due to the gameplan and the execution from the players.

X-Factors

Nuggets:

• The Others

Yep. That’s right. Literally every single player not named Nikola Jokić is an x-factor for the Nuggets because simply he will need all the help he can get. If Jamal Murray can tap into that efficiency he had when in the Bubble it would go a long way. He does not have the margin of error that he had in the series against Phoenix to have ice-cold games and still come out with a win. Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have to be consistent shooters and consistent decision-makers when the ball is put in their hands. Aaron Gordon can’t be afraid to shoot the ball and has to always make himself a threat through cutting or his outside shot. How much can the bench help? How much can Bruce Brown and Christian Braun contribute offensively? They’ll need everybody to chip in in some ways that aren’t normal for them and they may be put into uncomfortable situations where they will still have to succeed if they want a trip to the Finals.

Lakers

• LeBron James
• Timely adjustments (both)

Anthony Davis has unequivocally been the best player for the Lakers in this playoff run but he will need all the help where he can get it as well and I think LeBron has a chance to make a huge imprint on this series. With his athletic advantages and as a prime pressure point for the Nuggets’ weakness, his production, and primarily his health, could swing the series one way or the other.

Michael Malone is one of the best coaches in the league and this should not be a pushover matchup (like the 2020 series). These two teams are pretty evenly matched to where if you don’t counter an adjustment or don’t execute enough of the gameplan, the other team will send you right on home. Neither team has the margin for error to mess around and drop games because of an unplanned-for coverage or the team can’t execute the proper coverage or offensive exploits.

Prediction

Lakers in 6.

Much like the series against Golden State, LA is coming into this series with an optimal gameplan that we have seen work in the regular season and should be put in place again in the upcoming series. I do expect Denver to be ready for the Lakers’ first move and they have the coaching to be able to counter as best as they can then it will be on the Lakers to make their move once again. I believe the Lakers have the tactical advantage, weakness advantage, and rotation/versatility advantage with the Nuggets at a strict 8-man rotation while the Lakers have nine or even 10 guys they can go to on a nightly basis and tweak their style of play just a bit to accommodate that player and play him into their advantage. On top of that, the last game that LeBron played was his best game of this postseason and he ended the series off shooting 39% from three after Game 1. Who’s to say that can’t carry over?

Either way, this should be an extremely entertaining series that will have many plenty of adjusting and countering and best of all we get to see another series of just some of the best in the world go at it. Jokić has grown a lot since that series in Orlando and it would be a pretty good story if he were to beat the same team that knocked him out for a spot in the Finals a while back. But unfortunately for the Joker, I think his road will stop at the same spot and we will see the first 7th seed in NBA history claim their spot in the NBA Finals.

The post Clash of the Titans: Nuggets vs Lakers Series Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

Yes, AD’s defense was the takeaway from Game One, to film-watchers, to casuals, even to nationally televised talking heads. (Even while, by the way, scoring 30 points.) Accumulating four highlight-level blocks will do that. But all that well-deserved praise for Davis’ defense may still not be enough –  the degree to which he warped the floor vs. the Dubs cannot be overstated. Lakers’ defenders were practically escorting various Warriors to the paint, knowing they had AD behind them. And I don’t just mean, say, icing ball screens and funneling ball-handlers away from the middle of the court. Look at D’Angelo Russell allowing Steph Curry a whole side of the floor on Davis’ final, game-saving block:

This is what the Warriors are contending with, likely the main thrust for the remainder of this series. How the hell can they pull AD away from the paint, or work for shots that aren’t under the threat of being sent into the third row?

They’re going to have to get creative, particularly because they can’t truly run a five-out offense, or at least one with five spacers on the floor. It’s not just that Davis can disregard Draymond Green and/or Kevon Looney in help, although he certainly can to great effect – just look at the above block. Of perhaps greater import is Davis sagging off those two when they have the ball at the top of the key, looking to initiate offense. Of course, many have done the same, but AD’s special blend of length and mobility turn things up a notch:

As seen above, Lakers defenders aggressively top-locked various Warriors in Game One without fear of getting back-cut to the rim. Even while “guarding” the ball, Davis is waiting for cutters in the lane. Dribble-handoffs, then, simply aren’t an option, and it’s not like challenging AD in the mid-range or at the rim is a preferable alternative. But, even when the Dubs did get into handoffs or pick-and-rolls, Davis wasn’t sagging back in the paint, but rather playing much closer to the level:

To that end, the Lakers, Dennis Schroder and Jarred Vanderbilt in particular, did an excellent job of getting over screens in Game One, as seen above. It also helps that Davis doesn’t have to worry about the screener rolling to the rim and catching a lob because, well, is there a Warrior that can do that?

This all made it an absolute treat to watch Steve Kerr figure out how to produce quality shots in the midst of Davis’ singularity. Sound on:

So, while AD did stroll into the Chase Center and threw a haymaker, the Warriors did figure out how to land some counterpunches. Kerr went away from Green-Looney lineups as the game progressed, which will likely continue as the series wears on, stretching out the court and allowing Golden State to play faster. That came to fruition in the 14-0 run they went on toward the end of the fourth quarter, nearly snatching a win from the jaws of defeat. The Dubs, as they always are, are coming.

This brings me to the LeBron James question. As the Warriors gradually space the floor and make Davis just a little uncomfortable on defense, stretching him out as much as they can, LBJ’s secondary rim protection becomes even more vital. The last time L.A. made it this far in the postseason, it was The Bubble, and LeBron played at an All-Defense level alongside AD’s generational level. It propelled the 2020 Lakers to all-time-great-playoff-defense status. How much of that juice can The King conjure up this time around?

In Game One, there were fantastic signs, plays that flashed back to The Bubble, where Davis would construct the fort and Bron would detail it:

There were also plays where LeBron would revert to regular season mode, getting back-cut or, more importantly, failing to make a backline rotation when the Warriors successfully pulled Davis out of the paint:

Anthony Davis is going to shoulder an enormous defensive load in this series, there’s no two ways about it. And, if Game One was any indication, he’ll do it phenomenally. Steve Kerr and Golden State will adjust, however; they’ll scheme up ways to mess with Davis, whether avoiding him entirely or sneaking behind him to get to the rim. This is where the defense of LeBron James comes into the equation. It feels silly to question him, but it also feels silly to dismiss the notion that, particularly on one good foot, he won’t be able to be the secondary rim protector that the Lakers need, the force that has made their defense so dominant in the past.

Yes, a Game One is often a feel-out, and Tuesday night’s Lakers-Warriors contest was no different. But it taught us a lot about how the rest of this hugely anticipated series is going to go, what and who to look out for. Thursday night should be a blast.

The post Anthony Davis Is Undeniable, but the Lakers Will Need More appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stephen Curry vs LeBron James. A rivalry that defines this generation of the NBA will potentially have its last dance and like the infamous football/soccer coach, Pep Guardiola, once said—”we will be there” (not actually there because the prices for these games are already off the charts but anyways).

This should be an electric series between two teams that have had their share of ups and downs and are coming in hot with a chip on their shoulder. But enough with the talking, let’s dive into what this all will look like on the court.

Matchups

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Stephen Curry
• D’Angelo Russell on Klay Thompson
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Andrew Wiggins
• LeBron James on Draymond Green
• Anthony Davis on Kevon Looney

For Golden State:

• Klay Thompson on D’Angelo Russell
• Stephen Curry on Austin Reaves
• Draymond Green on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Andrew Wiggins on LeBron James
• Kevon Looney on Anthony Davis

Starting with LA, the talk around the matchup is the “who guards Steph?” problem, and out of that first group, I trust Austin Reaves to be the guy. Per BBall Index, Reaves graded out as an A- in Off-Ball Chaser Defense and in Ball Screen Navigation, two very key skills you need to have defensively if you want to take on the task that is Stephen Curry. 

There has been talk from media and fans about Davis potentially guarding Draymond and LeBron guarding Looney which I can see, but to start the series I think Darvin Ham will go with a vanilla approach and not get too cute just yet. Looney is involved in a lot of Golden State’s actions, just like Draymond, and I think AD could split time between the two while still having the same impact defensively. 

For Golden State, I think the key here is Draymond on Vanderbilt. In the regular season matchups, Draymond showed little to no respect to Vanderbilt when he was “guarding” him and at times spent whole possessions heavily shadowing Anthony Davis who was primarily guarded by Looney. With Green roaming to help on Davis, this could cause trouble for LA in terms of Vanderbilt’s usage offensively and the spacing problems that could pursue from that matchup.

Stopping Steph?

In the famous words of the legendary Kevin Harlan, “You can not stop him, you can only hope to contain him!”

Long answer: stopping Steph is a proposition that many teams have tried and have failed in doing so. Do you go all out in stopping him or do you let him cook while you try and shut off Golden State’s other avenues to score? I think the Lakers will lean heavily toward the latter.

The Lakers and Warriors played in three games after the trade deadline with LA’s new cast and they defended Golden State the same way every single time. Putting a heavy emphasis on gapping the Warriors’ poor/non-shooters—Green, Looney, Kuminga, JaMychal Green to some extent, and I would assume Gary Payton II to be in this group although he didn’t play in these matchups—to cut off passing angles and for the Warriors free-flowing, spaced out offense.

And although Kuminga made that three, you’d much rather him taking threes than Steph, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, or Divincenzo getting threes or layups like how they usually do in their offense. This gap defense can disrupt how Golden State normally attacks and it will be on them to counter. The guards guarding the shooters running around will also have to top-lock (when a defender stands between the screener and the person you’re guarding) to deny easy handoffs and if the guards cut, they’ll cut right into Anthony Davis or LeBron James. With off-ball chasers like Reaves, Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown Jr., and even D’Angelo Russell who is really solid in this role when locked in, LA has the personnel to execute this defense fairly well. 

But we still haven’t answered the proposed question of stopping or even containing Steph. The best way to contain him while also containing their offense as a whole would be—prepare yourselves—drop coverage. 

But no, not that drop coverage with the big man sinking all the way in the paint and daring the ballhandler to hit pull-up jumpers. It’s Steph Curry. I’m recommending a higher variation of drop where the ballhandler’s defender still goes over the screen, but the big man is much higher, usually anywhere from the free throw line out to the 3-point line. 

Just like the other scheme against Golden State, the Lakers ran this during all three of those meetups post-deadline and it worked to a tee.

Now of course this isn’t the ultimate cheat code defense that will hold Steph to 20 points per game on bad efficiency. Steph will still get his because of his greatness but you have to play the long game with this defense and focus on the process of “how hard of looks are they getting?” vs the results of whether or not the ball is going in for them. 

With the greatness that is Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, nothing seems too farfetched as he is the key to this defensive strategy and is one of the few guys in the league that could actually execute it. We are asking him to be our main rim protector while also being fairly high on Steph where he can contest and maybe even block a couple 3s. It will be a tough task for The Brow but I honestly believe there is nobody in the league I’d rather have for this gameplan.

Answers for AD?

Speaking of AD, the Warriors will have to navigate how they deal with him while they’re on defense as well. In the latest matchup between the two teams, Davis detonated for 39 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocks on 64% True Shooting while hitting a mean dagger post shot over the lauded defender, Draymond Green. 

Davis presents a harder challenge for the Warriors than what they dealt with in the first round with Domantas Sabonis. Draymond and Looney were able to sag off of Sabonis and give him a great amount of space since Sabonis isn’t really comfortable as a scorer if he’s right near the rim for a layup. That meant post shots, floaters, midranges, and threes were off the table and were a complete non-factor for Sabonis as Draymond and Looney camped under the rim. 

You simply can not do that against Anthony Davis. 

AD is more of a finesse and quickness big with real touch and is perfectly fine with living in the post hook/floater range if need be. A primary attack I’d like LA to go with in terms of getting AD going would be to get him flowing off of movement so that he can attack the foot speed of Looney, in particular, but even Draymond as well. We saw the Lakers go to this way of attacking for that last matchup where Davis dropped a near 40-piece, running a lot of 5-out delay sets and setting pindown screens for AD for him to attack Looney. 

This isn’t the only way though, Davis will kill any 1-on-1 matchups in the post if you don’t send some type of help. AD actually had a very uncharacteristic post-up efficiency series against the Grizzlies where he got his typical looks that he makes most of the time, but just missed them. I would have to expect that those shots are bound to fall eventually and I think this can be the series where that happens. 

On top of AD being a hell of a mismatch on the ground, the Warriors can not match his verticality either. The tallest player the Warriors play in their rotation is Kevon Looney who is 6-9 but very floor bound. This is a complete contrast to what Davis had to deal with last round with the 6-11 terror Jaren Jackson Jr. who could match AD’s size and even still he had a very rough time guarding him. 

Because of all this, I’m expecting the Warriors to commit a ton of attention and help toward Davis’ way. Although they seem very locked in on not letting him get free Pick-and-Roll lobs and layups, they do not seem as disciplined in their post defense whereas Memphis very much was and it could’ve been one of the factors that kept AD’s efficiency for the series way lower than what we expect from him. Think this could potentially unlock some of AD’s passing too as he will have to make some pretty solid reads in order to counter the help they will send his way. The Warriors will make it tough for AD but this isn’t anything he hasn’t seen before and I think he just completed the test against a tougher Memphis matchup for him offensively. 

X-Factors

For Los Angeles

• LeBron James and Anthony Davis
• Lakers guards

Outside of Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, the stars for LA were pretty average in the 1st round matchup against Memphis. I think there is a world where Davis could have the same or even a bigger impact than Curry in this series and the Lakers will need that type of production from their superstar to win this one. With LeBron tending to his lingering foot issue, I’m just unsure of what he will bring to the series on the offensive end. Will he be the on-ball engine like we’ve seen throughout the previous 19 years of his career or again will he be this off-ball cog in the machine? And if he continues to be off-ball which is fine by me, he’ll have to be able to shoot threes at a respectable clip which he did not against Memphis.

LA’s guards again will have a big impact on this series. Austin Reaves is pretty much the only guard in the Lakers rotation that consistently produces and you don’t have to worry about him on the offensive side of the ball really. But D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and possibly Malik Beasley and/or Troy Brown Jr. could all play huge swing factor roles on the offensive side of the ball. Not sure how it looks in the stats, but just from a feel perspective, it seems like when D’Angelo Russell has a good game, the Lakers have a 90% chance of winning. I think he will be a little bit more looser than he was in the Memphis series with him not having to deal with as much physicality. The Lakers will be depending on Schröder’s defense so that’s why he is an x-factor but if Beasley or Brown Jr. could just start hitting shots, it could go a long way. Those two combined to shoot 6-for-30 (a whopping 20%) from three in the Memphis series so just them hitting shots could swing the series in LA’s favor.

For Golden State

• Draymond Green
• Klay Thompson/Andrew Wiggins

Draymond Green’s offensive ability will be tested in this series. Just like how the Warriors tested Sabonis’ ability in the first round. He will have to have the mindset of being aggressive on offense and not minding being a scorer which he’s shown he can have at times—Game 5 vs Sacramento—but can he do it efficiently and consistently? That is the real question and should be answered throughout the series.

On top of Klay and Wiggins just having to hit shots, they may be relied upon to create and provide some offense that may be more than usual for them. I think Golden State will look for mismatches on these two when they can and try to get them post looks which will be helpful. But after both had a pretty average first-round series on the offensive side of the ball, their number could be called a lot more vs Los Angeles.

Prediction Time

Lakers in 7.

I believe this will be a long, hard-fought series that will end with the Lakers coming out victorious. Whether it’s six and they win at Crypto.com Arena or seven away on the road, I think the Lakers are coming into this one with the tactical advantage over the Warriors and will try to impose their strength and size against a small-ball Warriors team. LA will be forceful in trying to establish their paint presence just from points in the paint but also on the free throw line where they drew the second most fouls per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Warriors committed the third-most personal fouls per game, so the whistle should play a factor and be in LA’s favor just based off of playstyle.

Either way, I simply cannot wait to enjoy this series to the fullest and live through what may be the last chapter of LeBron vs Steph. Two legends that had their hand in reshaping the game into the way it is now and I’ll forever be appreciative towards them for that. But again, enough with all the talking man—let’s hoop!

The post Warriors vs Lakers Series Preview: Steph vs LeBron Part V appeared first on Swish Theory.

One Laker had 29 points on 11-of-14 shooting while another scored 14 points in the 4th quarter to close out the game. Neither were named LeBron James or Anthony Davis.

Rui Hachimura’s graceful 29-piece and Austin Reaves’ boastful closing touches in crunch time showed how the Lakers finally don’t have to depend on LeBron or AD to have superstar offensive outputs to win games. Hachimura was huge mostly in the 3rd quarter, first hitting a contested three in the corner which opened up the floodgates. The former 9th overall pick was 5-6 from three, feasting off of open looks generated from LeBron or AD’s gravity on the defense plus Memphis sagging off of him and daring him to make shots and he made them pay. 

Down the stretch with Lebron and AD on the court, it was Austin Reaves getting ball screen after ball screen and absolutely killing the Grizzlies’ drop coverage every time down. Reaves snaked around a reaching Jaren Jackson Jr. for a layup, hit a deep pull-up three as Desmond Bane went under the AD screen, then hit a leaning pull-up midrange jumper to put the dagger in the coffin and screamed “I’M HIM!” while running to the bench. The duo of Reaves and Hachimura combined for an absurd 14-of-15 shooting performance in the 2nd half and it was a much deserved coming out party for the two new Laker fan favorites.

All of that isn’t to say that LeBron or Davis didn’t play well though, especially Davis who had one of his best defensive performances to date with 3 steals and a playoff career-high 7 blocks. The big man set the tone early with 3 blocks in the first 9 minutes of the game and the rest of the team followed his lead on that end while he continued to dominate defensively until the final buzzer. Davis finished with 22 points, 12 rebounds (4 offensive), 3 assists, and was a staggering plus-27. LeBron even chipped in with 3 blocks of his own, all in a pin-the-glass fashion which is a LeBron favorite, and he also pitched in an efficient 21 points and 11 rebounds.

As far as Memphis and what to look for in the rest of the series, obviously the main concern is the health of Ja Morant. Morant took a hard fall and landed on his wrist after a charge attempt from Anthony Davis with under 6 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and was ruled out the rest of the game. Without him, you can wish the Grizzlies’ chances farewell but when Morant was in, the Lakers did contain him fairly well, limiting him to only 2 assists to go with 6 turnovers and zero free throws attempted on the night. Morant rarely, if ever, got a full head of steam toward the rim for layups, and when he did he was met by the defensive stalwart that is Anthony Davis. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. had a superb game in what was really the only great performance by a Memphis Grizzly. The newly-minted All-Star had 31 points on 13-of-21 shooting with 2 threes and brings a potential problem for LA to solve. With or without Morant in the next couple of games, the Lakers have to think about sending more bodies toward Jackson Jr. when he’s posting up. His playmaking is not one of his standout skills and when going up against anybody not named Anthony Davis, he dominated 1-on-1 matchups in the interior. 

The Lakers crushed Memphis on the glass, with 45 rebounds (10 offensive) to Memphis’ 34 (6 offensive). Related, and as a potential swing factor for the series, LA won the fastbreak points battle with 26 to Memphis’ 17.

If the Lakers get even better offensive outputs from LeBron or Davis with the rising performances of the supporting cast, things could get tricky for Memphis in a hurry, especially with their superstar’s health in limbo.

The post The Rui & Reaves Show: Lakers Prevail in Game 1 Against Memphis appeared first on Swish Theory.

We Got Shootas!

The Lakers’ shooting after the deadline has surprisingly stayed around the same spot in terms of overall 3-point percentage — 24th after the deadline, 26th before the deadline — but with the new acquisitions, their shooting prowess on the perimeter can lead to nights where the Lakers just torch the nets. Last Tuesday though, they torched the Pelicans in a franchise record-breaking effort of 15 made threes in the 1st half. Led by Malik Beasley who provided seven of the 15 threes, the Lakers were able to capitalize on the Pelicans’ defensive game plan focused on Anthony Davis — who had 35 points on his own so I guess that didn’t work — which led to miscues all night.

The improved shooting talent on the roster has particularly shown in the midrange. Prior to the deadline, LA shot 38.8% on pull-up 2PT shots which would tie the Houston Rockets for last across the full season. Since the trades, the Lakers are shooting 43.1% on those shots, which would rank 13th across the full season. With the additions of D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura while also increasing the minutes of Austin Reaves and Dennis Schröder, LA has found a new scoring range they can rely on.

A Star (and a lineup) Was Born

Speaking of Austin Reaves, the dismissal of Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Nunn has opened up minutes for him at the guard position and he has taken full advantage. In the month of March, Reaves is averaging 18.5 points (64.8% from two [!], 37.5% from three, and 83.3% from the line on 8.2 attempts), 5.6 assists, and only 1.8 turnovers per game. Reaves’ threat as a perimeter skill-guard has fit in seamlessly with the interior presence of Davis and also complements the slashing game of Schröder. The rise of Reaves — and the absence of LeBron who is nursing a foot injury — has brought coach Darvin Ham to concoct a new guard-centric lineup when they were once frowned upon.

Earlier in the season, whenever a lineup of three guards entered the game for the Lakers (usually a combination of Westbrook, Nunn, Schröder, Reaves, Patrick Beverley, and Lonnie Walker IV), there was a collective groan from all Laker fans in the Twittersphere. For a three-guard lineup to be effective, those guards must have some type of shooting, positional size, and adequate defense, and most of those lineups before the deadline didn’t have any of these prerequisites. However, the combination of D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and Austin Reaves checks pretty much all the boxes for a three-guard lineup to work — and boy, it has.

Through 93 minutes, that trio has posted a plus-minus of plus-66, while generating a 131.4 offensive rating and 92.5 defensive rating, for a mind-boggling +38.9 NET rating. That’s insane. And those staggering numbers won’t hold as the sample grows larger, but the Lakers can now put out optimal lineups that just make sense and guess what? They work and are contributing to winning.

Back to the Basics

In the 17 games after the trade deadline, the Lakers boast the number one defensive rating in the league at 109.6 in that span. With the addition of Jarred Vanderbilt and the subtraction of many negative defenders — I’m looking at you, Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, Thomas Bryant, and Lonnie Walker IV who has found his way out of the rotation — the Lakers have seen massive improvements on that side of the court. Vanderbilt can cover a wide range of elite players, from guards to wings, that were previously guarded by the likes of Westbrook and/or Beverley — his best work being on Brandon Ingram (twice) and Luka Dončić in the miraculous 27-point comeback vs Dallas.

Through 307 minutes, the staunch defensive pairing of the two University of Kentucky products, Vanderbilt and Davis, have posted an impressive defensive rating of 106.8. This destructive duo is at the forefront of the Lakers bringing back the defensive foundation that the 2020 title team was built upon.

With the two previous rosters — yes, I’m counting the pre-deadline 2023 Lakers as a separate roster — the idea was to have a smash-mouth offense surrounded by shooters which was well removed from the identity of the team that had just won it all. LeBron James and Anthony Davis alone can provide more than enough interior pressure so instead of spending a large cap slot on another paint-based player, the Lakers reloaded — pun intended — with real perimeter threats and a proper defensive infrastructure.

A Focus on Now

With LeBron in street clothes and the Lakers fumbling away winnable games, time is ticking on this season. As of writing, the Lakers currently sit at the 10th seed and need to rack up results quickly if they want to get to the postseason safely.

Through almost two seasons of turmoil on and off the court, the Lakers have finally found stability in terms of performance and inside the locker room. With the 5th-best win percentage since the deadline, one can only imagine what this roster could’ve done with a full season to play with. But in the scenario they found themselves in now, the Lakers will have to earn their right in the postseason and as this fanbase knows too well after these last couple of seasons, nothing is promised for the purple and gold.

The post A New Hope: Analyzing the Post-Deadline Lakers appeared first on Swish Theory.