The 7-1 start in the Jimmy era has certainly provided some answers. The team’s energy has returned, and vibes are undoubtedly restored. The initial numbers are positive, as the vibe shift translates to on-court results. Most notable to me is the discovery of a new lineup that has resuscitated their efficacy on both ends of the floor and could be a major tool come playoff time. That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

First, some stats for this lineup. It’s far and away the preferred Jimmy Butler unit since the deadline with more than twice as many possessions as the next lineup, and it is efficient. So far, the unit boasts a 114.7 offensive rating (57th percentile) and a 100.8 defensive rating (99th percentile), good for a +14 net rating that is 96th percentile amongst all five-man units per Cleaning the Glass (go subscribe to their service, by the way!). This is accomplished through their elite turnover and free-throw gaps, uncommon for this iteration of the Warriors.

This five-man unit boasts a 10.1% turnover rate (99th percentile) while turning over their opponents 19.4% of the time, a 94th percentile mark. The free throw gap is just as preposterous with a 22.3% free throw rate (90th percentile) and only allowing a 9.8% mark on defense, tops in the league. They also manage comparable eFG% numbers (50.8% to 53%) and offensive rebound rates (29% to 27%). Winning three of the four factors, and dominating two of them, is an excellent formula for success.

Now, more important stats: the halfcourt. Their 107.1 offensive rating in the halfcourt is a 95th percentile mark while generating a 94th percentile mark of transition looks. These Dubs are also holding their opponents to an 87.5 rating in the halfcourt as well. Those are numbers you can build on in the playoffs.

Alright, those were a lot of numbers. Unless you are completely new to my work you’ve probably guessed what comes next: copious amounts of film. I watched all 319 plays with these five players on the floor so we could learn what led to this early success and discern what is sustainable versus what can be exploited.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Steph makes a Warriors lineup entirely possible. Unsurprisingly, even at 36 years old, he is the bellwether of the Dubs. So for the sake of this article, I’ll work in a rough descending order of who dictates the success of this lineup. We’ll start with none other than Wardell himself.

Steph

The first 50 games of the season felt like watching a prolonged crucifixion on offense. Steph was sent out there every night to die for the sins of the organization, doomed to give his life just to eke out a passable team offense. With Jimmy Butler on the floor, that burden has been eased considerably, and the results show. He’s gotten his energy back and is attacking switches and isolations with renewed vigor.

Reducing the amount of players you can help off has given Steph and Draymond newfound space to work their two-man game. When the other three are a clear threat to score, they might be frozen on the right alignments and allow a 2v2 to unfold.

Still, Curry is going to see his fair share of double teams. The four-man unit around him has handled these chances well. A mix of good decision-making and various scoring tools has led to some great looks.

He’s the worst defender on the floor in this lineup. However, he can still funnel well, a tactic this lineup will utilize even more than normal Warriors lineups. The problem is that the 5-man unit is lacking in size before you even get to Curry, who is a couple of inches shorter than his compatriots. That problem shows up more in help defense and rebounding than at the point of attack.

All things have balance. Steph does more for the other four to get them good looks; it’s only appropriate that they have his back on the uglier end of the floor.

Jimmy

The Jimmy Butler acquisition opened up one of the deadliest actions this team can run. Split actions are common with many combinations of perimeter players and bigs, and Steph/Jimmy split cuts were expected to be a source of excitement. So far, the results have been exceptional for Jimmy, allowing him to get into the paint freely by using Steph’s gravity.

The reverse side of that is Jimmy’s driving opening up looks for everyone else. Driving and kicking or finding cutters is a great way to jumpstart the motion offense, and he seems to get it immediately.

This lineup has also buoyed the best parts of Jimmy’s game: driving and posting up. If you take away the ability to help early on his drives or properly double-team his post-ups, he will have clean looks in the paint all night and plenty of trips to the free throw line.

It strikes a good balance so far that takes advantage of Jimmy’s offensive instincts, size, and floor mapping. Accentuating his best scoring methods without over-exerting him bodes well for this team. It also enables him to make a major impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Jimmy’s skill as a rotator and rebounder with his size and instincts is impressive. He can make plays all over the floor while trusting the rotations behind him and the funneling skills in front of him. There have been moments where he feels hesitant at times, but he’s learning to get in the flow with 4 guys who have been playing together for a season and a half. It’ll come in time. For now, I’ll settle for some strong double teams and boards while he learns to play off the following defensive force.

Draymond

Whew. Nobody has been more invigorated by the Butler acquisition than Draymond Green.

We saw it early on how he’s been thriving again on offense working a two-man game with Steph and making plays when he’s double-teamed. It feels like the Dray of old. Sprinkle in some open threes and transition looks and suddenly he’s becoming a productive offensive player again.

The real standout here is how his defense has been transformed in this lineup. The trust he has in his rotations behind him and the technically sound containment in front of him looses him like the Tasmanian Devil on opponents. Here’s just a snatch of his elite rotation and help defense with this group:

No real change in his game to be noted in this lineup. It just feels like the Dubs are turning a giant dial that says “Draymond Green” to the max and looking at the audience for approval.

Podz

Now is when things get interesting. The star trio coalescing and playing well is a pleasant development but not necessarily a surprising one. A guy who’s been struggling all year turning into a high-level starter seemingly overnight is eye-opening. What has impressed me the most is how Podz has begun to capitalize on his defensive potential with this unit, making a huge impact with his funneling skills first and foremost.

Funneling your man out of the middle and into the help of Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody is a great formula to stay in the lineup defensively. Some outright stops or trail blocks will be welcome. He’s made an impact with his double teams too, blowing up actions left and right while maintaining good hands off the ball to generate steals. But the most important thing he brings to this lineup is the rebounding prowess from the guard spot.

Draymond, Moses, and Jimmy will throw around some hard boxouts, enabling Podz and Steph to come in and clean up the glass. They’re rebounding very well as a unit (more on this later) and Podz is a key cog in that equation. His size and nose for the ball have always produced strong rebounding numbers across several levels of basketball, and it’s much needed to make this unit work. If you want to read more about Podz’s talents as a rebounder, I wrote about it last year.

Offensively, he’s doing an excellent job at filling gaps. He’s the third most versatile scorer in this lineup behind Steph and Jimmy but has a lessened burden to contribute. That gives him the range to focus on his defense while finding ways to contribute as a shooter, closeout attacker, cutter, screener, and transition weapon.

That last part is the most important to me: transition. This lineup has managed to create a 98th percentile transition offense frequency, yet their 1.00 PPP mark in the open floor is abhorrent, to say the least. They desperately need someone to trigger good looks for others and find spots to pick for their shot. Podz’s passing and finishing talents mixed with youthful energy and his halfcourt defensive positions bode well for transition success.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Podz in these lineups going forward. The quality of his play might be the most important tipping point given his past inconsistencies and specific skillset. Here’s hoping he continues to thrive with these four.

Moses

It speaks a lot to the talent and cohesion of this lineup that Moses is arguably the fifth starter here, yet remains very impactful. The Dubs are now up to 11-0 this year when Moses starts a game and 21-27 otherwise. That’s not just happenstance.

Within this lineup, Moses is the most accomplished perimeter defender. His length and footwork combo, with some solid funneling instincts, makes him outstanding against most matchups. Podz and Steph can funnel well but are unlikely to stop a drive outright. Moody can do that or make a drive so dire that the driver is extremely vulnerable to help.

His size also leads to different usages when off the ball. He’s more than capable as a low man rotating or boxing out for rebounds and crashes well after shots go up. The athleticism makes him a defensive threat in transition as well, a large reason why this lineup has successfully closed down transition chances at a high rate.

I’ve especially liked seeing his synergy with the help in these lineups; defending in tandem with Draymond or Jimmy has produced wonderful results.

When you are taking on tough assignments, 75% of your floormates being experienced veterans helps a lot with your trust and confidence. This lineup unlocks a level of defensive intensity he has not discovered before.

On the offensive end of the floor, he holds similar responsibilities to Podziemski with slightly less handling. Shoot when open, crash the glass, screen, cut, and get to work in transition. Per usual he’s done a great job at all aspects of his role.

Moody has always been great at playing within himself offensively. As the 4th/5th scoring option in this lineup, he won’t take chances away from others by forcing things and capitalizes well on the chances given to him. If he can mix in some quality drives and glass crashes, he can be more than a 3-and-D player, which is all they need him to be in the first place.

Team Play and Strategy

As previously mentioned, funneling is a fundamental Warriors tactic. Double teams and icing the pick-and-roll play into that equation as well. They’re comfortable in rotation as a defense so forcing the issue is a benefit. It’s led to some wonderful moments of team defensive play in the halfcourt.

The team transition scoring has been tough, but transition chances are a goal with their 94th percentile transition frequency. The poor results have largely come from hesitancy as this less-than-speedy lineup is not pushing things hard. Yet there have been some moments of great team play in transition that I’ve enjoyed greatly.

What’s more absurd is that despite the lowly offensive rating in transition, this lineup manages to boast a +15.8 net rating in transition so far due to a wild 84.2 DRTG in the open court. There have been moments of brilliance, largely by Draymond Green. However, this looks like a bubble ready to pop. They’re allowing a high frequency of transition looks off live rebounds and have been burned by simply being too tired, not athletic enough, or not attentive enough.

This is certainly a playoff-intensity sort of lineup, and the concern is lessened come April but not gone entirely. They’ll need to continue limiting turnovers and picking offensive rebound opportunities well to limit the transition chances. Draymond can paper over a lot defensively in the open floor but he cannot do everything. Finding a way to keep chances low and relatively covered will be paramount for their success.

A last strategy point that may prove a weakness is the size. As previously mentioned, they have nobody taller than 6’7″ in this lineup, and it brings a host of weaknesses. They’ve been susceptible to offensive rebounds and post-up chances by the league’s taller players.

They need to be crisp with their double teams and help to deter these bigs on the block and rebound well as a team to maintain some control. They can control the floor horizontally with their ability to fly around and pack the paint, but you can only control so much vertically. The tallest trees soak up the most sun at the end of the day. Luckily, there have been lots of great team rebounding moments with this lineup:

On the whole, this lineup is extremely good despite these flaws and has ways to control these flaws. There’s a lot of season left to play but I’m keeping my eye on this grouping. Last night’s game against Orlando was a wake-up call of sorts, and the first time this lineup hasn’t closed a close game since the trade deadline. When teams throw two bigs at them and begin controlling the paint, countermeasures have to be deployed. Will it be the same when they come up against Oklahoma City’s twin towers, or Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

Flaws will be managed in the long run. They may have unlocked a lineup that could carry them up the Western Conference standings and put the fear of God into a team in round one. From there, who knows how high it could take them?

The post Warriors Unlock New Deadly Lineup? appeared first on Swish Theory.

After signing a 1-year, $62.6M extension, the maximum allowable amount on top of his existing 2-year/$115M remaining, Stephen Curry is locked in through his age 39 season. That money can buy a lot of popcorn. It also feels the closest thing to a guarantee that Curry will finish his illustrious career in the Golden State, the dream of all Warriors fans. In a recent interview with Marc Spears, Steph clarified that he’ll be in blue and gold as long as the team isn’t a “bottom feeder”. Considering this past offseason, that seems to be a rather unlikely future.

This new deal also brings a good deal of clarity to the future of this team by aligning their contracts, an interesting wrinkle I want to explore.

The New Cap Sheet

Per Spotrac, my GOAT sports contract tool, this is how the Warriors’ future cap sheet lines up with the new extension:

You’ll notice a few things from the jump. Assuming all player options are picked up, a main veteran group of Steph, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield will run through 2026-27. Hield does have an option that will run through 2027-28, but that’s tied to a deal that is non-guaranteed in the 26/27 season, so it’s far from a lock.

Another important detail lies with the young players. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have yet to be extended, despite their eligibility this offseason. I’m not Mike Dunleavy Jr., but something tells me that extending Curry and making moves for veteran pieces was the priority. A fully actualized future and organized cap sheet gives them a better idea of what numbers they can reach, especially with Kuminga.

Assuming Kuminga were to reach a 4-year max extension, he’d be the only player locked in beyond the 2026/27 season. The same can probably be said for rising star Brandin Podziemski, someone the Warriors would be silly to let go of. That creates some interesting options for that offseason.

The 2027 Fork in the Road

Let’s assume a Kuminga deal gets done this offseason and Podziemski signs a new deal in the 25/26 offseason. That locks in their core young pieces, who would be 26 and 25 years old respectively, for a possible post-Steph future. Trayce Jackson-Davis would also be locked in through 2026/27 assuming his extremely cheap options are picked up. This also gives them a chance to keep a relatively clean cap sheet for what could be a final run together in 2026/27.

Steph will be locked in. Unless Draymond Green wants to opt out of $27.7M at age 36, he will be there. Andrew Wiggins would need a massive turnaround back to his 2022 standards to consider opting out of $30M in his age 31 season. Those deals, plus Anderson and Hield on non-guaranteed years, line up a three-year window for this team.

There’s some wiggle room here too. Moses Moody extension talks have been as quiet as the grave, and he may find himself on a new team by this time next year. Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, and new signing De’Anthony Melton represent $30M in expiring money next offseason. If this current team falls short of expectations, the brain trust can try to re-tool or make trades to reshape its image.

Let’s tease out a few scenarios here, from the optimistic to the realistic.

Where Is This Headed?

Here’s the ideal option. The veteran group stays locked in for the next few years and builds themselves a competitive playoff team. The young players develop while working toward new contracts. A trade here, a signing there, you might even have a contender on your hands. Then comes the 2027 offseason, and the veterans can return at lower cap numbers if they’re not ready to hang up the sneakers. Crazier things have happened but Steph Curry probably won’t be worth $62 million at age 39, nor Draymond worth $27 million at age 36. Maybe 2027/28 is the final swan song, vets surrounding the young core of Kuminga/Podziemski/Jackson-Davis. Hell, maybe Moses Moody is still around.

A more realistic option is this team spends the next few years fighting to stay relevant in the perpetual knife fight known as the Western Conference. No more jewelry, just a battle against the inexorable march of time. To some absolutist fans, that’s the nightmare scenario, and I can understand it on some level. 2K brain has us thinking you need to contend or stink out loud and anything in between is nothing short of criminal.

Ask yourselves: with no rings coming, would it be the worst thing ever to watch the greatest point guard of all time finish out his career where it started? On a team that should be playing April basketball? With some exciting young players in tow? Many things are worse.

Let’s say that is the realistic course. Steph, Draymond, and Kerr have three more years before retirement. Wiggins comes off the books, Hield and Anderson expire, and suddenly the youth are in charge. Golden State also owns all their first-round picks through the 2030 season, so one would assume another exciting player or two can be added between now and that 2027 offseason. We can sing the swan song and move into a new era with a well-laid path.

Some teams tank outright and find themselves with young prospect groups worse than Kuminga, Podz, Moody, and TJD. They’ll have a few more years of seasoning and will all be 27 or younger by the time this potential exodus of franchise legends occurs. It’s not a bad spot to find yourself in after the greatest core in franchise history moves from the court to the rafters and statues outside Chase Center.

So keep that 2027 number in mind. For all the yelling and whining many fans have done about this front office, they have set up a clear runway into this decision point. What happens now is for the players to decide.

The post Warriors Create Contract Alignment appeared first on Swish Theory.

Besides being a lefty who looks like the upper half of a centaur with a funky love of hook shots, his proficiency as a rebounder is nearly unparalleled among NBA guards. Podz rates as a 99th-percentile defensive rebounder amongst guards, and 97th-percentile on the offensive glass.

Even with the rise of huge guards (and Podz is no slouch at 6’5″), his rebounding stands out. Only two guards boast higher offensive and defensive rebounding shares than Brandin: Ben Simmons (6’10”) and Russell Westbrook (all-time rebounding guard). I’d say that’s pretty good company.

Rebounding at this kind of level doesn’t just happen. It takes effort, timing, and technique to reach the level Podziemski has already achieved as a rookie. How does he do it?

Using Boxouts

Like Westbrook, Podz excels at using boxouts by his teammates to secure boards. He checks his man well and has an innate understanding of angles, knowing how to best position himself behind the boxout:

Podz isn’t just reliant on boxouts from others to generate rebounding success. He’ll happily do the dirty work himself:

In fact, among all the guards who have played as many minutes as Podz, only two boast a higher rate of boxouts per 48 minutes: Jaylen Brown and Jalen Williams. Not bad at all!

Boxouts are decreasing in frequency and importance as the game spreads out further. The real question for most rebounders is how you handle your defensive rebounding zones.

In Zone vs Out of Zone

An important part of rebounding is making quick checks. Players have to move into the proper position when the shot goes up. Using that time to check for potential offensive rebounding threats helps make a great rebounder, and Podz excels at this.

Those quick checks give him a better idea of what kind of resistance is coming in addition to whether or not a boxout is needed. It makes him a fantastic in-zone rebounder (i.e. rebounds that come to his natural defensive position).

Controlling the rebounds that come your way is great, but it’s not as impressive as out-of-zone boards. Recognizing chances to crash into other zones and help collect rebounds impacts team rebounding hugely.

A huge part of recognizing out-of-zone chances is noticing when your teammates are at a potential disadvantage. Podz can check the scene, recognize opportunities to tip the scales and help to secure that defensive stop.

Podz doesn’t just excel at securing defensive boards: he sparks the transition game once secured.

Transition Triggering

Podz isn’t exactly a big transition threat. He has mediocre transition frequency (56th percentile) and even worse efficiency as a scorer (28th percentile). But he still finds ways to contribute, especially as an outlet passer, which all comes from his defensive rebounding.

He reads the floor quickly and has good loft/accuracy on his passes. You probably noticed the middle clip was a deflection, but given the time and score, it was a good risk to take.

If you can’t grab the board and burn down the floor like prime Westbrook, find other ways to help out the team transition game. This is a welcome addition for a Warriors team that has struggled to generate transition opportunities all year.

And it’s not all on the defensive end where Podz impacts the boards.

Offensive Rebounding

As previously mentioned, Brandin posts elite offensive rebounding numbers. His combination of technique and effort stands even taller when getting busy on the offensive end.

First, the technique. Inside positioning is the name of the game when it comes to the offensive glass. If you can get through boxouts and work harder for that position, you’ll find yourself creating a lot of second chances.

When you’re amongst the trees it can be difficult to outright secure the board yourself. Podz loves to high-point the ball for tipouts and give the perimeter players a better shot to secure the board, taking the bigs out of the play.

Tipouts by themselves can lead directly to second chances. When you play a lot of minutes with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, they’re as good as assists.

In addition to being technically sound, the effort sticks out. Podz is constantly outworking his opponents to create these second chances. That kind of hustle endears you to teammates and makes them want to compete harder.

Does that kind of effort make you want to run through a brick wall? That makes two of us.

In a season where Golden State has suffered from inconsistency, lethargy, and a lack of size, this kind of rebounding from the guard spots can be a game-changer. There will be years to come when the Warriors try to build around a smaller team. Rebounding will have to be made up on the margins. Brandin Podziemski is a guy who thrives on the margins. You go, Mr. Tumnus. You go.

The post Brandin Podziemski: Guard Rebounder Extraordinaire appeared first on Swish Theory.

Chris Paul is now in Golden State. Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and Ryan Rollins are in Washington along with some protected picks. And now Golden State attempts to realign its timeline, starting with a draft in which they added three players in the first round, second, and undrafted free agency. Let’s take a deeper look into the three newest Warriors, and how they fit into the current roster.

Brandin Podziemski

It felt like all eyes were on this pick to get a true sense of how this new-look front office would operate. And they did not disappoint.

After a rough freshman season at Illinois, Brandin Podziemski transferred to Santa Clara after Jalen Williams made himself a lottery pick and left huge shoes to fill. Podz was equally dynamic in his own right: his 10.0 BPM mark was the second-highest amongst all underclassmen. Only Brandon Miller eclipsed that mark, the only college player drafted in the top 7 picks last night.

The method by which the Curly-Headed Assassin came into his production was unique for guards. He was far and away the most prolific rebounding guard in this draft (perhaps in several years), racking up a 21.0% defensive rebounding rate and 10.3 boards per 75 possessions. He’s a hustler on the defensive end through and through, and it jumps out on the tape.

I really enjoy the technical aspects of his defensive game. He’s not a shutdown guy on the perimeter by any means, but does a great job at keeping people in front of him, using his active hands for steals without fouling while breaking up passing lanes on and off the ball. Considering the kind of point-of-attack defenders that Golden State has, I think he can do a great job on secondary assignments and make a real impact off the ball with his nose for off-ball event creation and superior rebounding talent.

The offensive side of the ball is where Podz will shine. He’s lethal with the ball in his hands, possessing a great handle and touch with a knack for getting to his spots. Brandin can get to his step-back with ease, hit all kinds of funky floaters, and contort his body around the rim for tough finishes. Despite a high shooting volume from outside (41.3% on 5.8 attempts per game), Podz drew a strong 32.3 free throw rate and converts his trips to the line with regularity. The quickness, floor sense, and natural touch scream future three-level scorer with the potential for a truly elite perimeter and intermediate game.

Though the assist numbers weren’t gaudy with his role as an off-ball guard, he still managed to cross the 20% assist rate plateau with an array of strong passing looks. He is especially adept at layoff passes after drives, but can hit rollers from a variety of angles and make long skips with either hand. There is a true point guard in there, but Golden State would happily settle for plus playmaking from a combo spot given his shooting and driving talent. His ability to convert on passing windows was on display at some of the combine scrimmages against his fellow draftees:

With good size, athleticism, tons of natural touch, and savvy with the ball in his hands, Podz can be a big-time scorer in the league in due time. The major question for now is how he slots into this roster, and new GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. seemed to throw some cold water on him being handed any sort of role:

It’s worth noting Dunleavy also said Podziemski was “8-9 spots” higher on their board than 19th overall, so he clearly believes in him in a big way, especially with Jordan Poole going cross-country. Podz may enter the season no higher than fifth on the depth chart at guard, but with an aging and oft-injured Chris Paul in the fold, expect to see him on the floor plenty to fill in the gaps.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Before the draft began, our role-projection model had a few fits labeled as “perfect”. Trayce Jackson-Davis to the Warriors was one of those perfect fits, and freshly minted GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. went and made it happen.

He fits like a glove into the Warriors’ offensive system. He has an outstanding handle for a true big, and shows great coordination in the post with a variety of body fakes and rip moves. If given a mismatch on the perimeter against slower centers, he could put the ball on the deck to get into the paint or make a kickout pass. He was doubled in the post at a 99th percentile frequency, and was not only able to continue scoring but involved his teammates at a high level.

Not only does he have a refined offensive game, but plenty of athleticism to boot. He’s not the most dynamic leaper but can load multiple jumps quickly to get quick dunks, lobs, and putbacks on the offensive glass. TJD posted an above-average rebounding rate on both ends of the floor in all four years at Indiana University, and the production on the glass reached absurd levels in his senior year with 13.7 rebounds per 75 minutes. If he is the rotational big behind Kevon Looney, they might not experience the drastic drop-off in rebounding numbers when the Loongod sits.

His skillset is very conducive to the DHOs, split actions, and short rolls that the Warriors love using their bigs for. He’s a refined screener and quick decision maker, but the passing really jumps out. In an offense filled with relocating shooters and baseline cutters, he can read the floor quickly to find the window and deliver an array of beautiful passes. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say Trayce Jackson-Davis will easily be the best passing big not named Draymond Green that Steve Kerr has had to use. Just watch the variety of reads he can make here:

This preternatural feel for the court will make him deadly on handoffs and pick-and-roll, especially given the bench unit. Chris Paul-TJD two-man game with Gary Payton II cutting and shooters like Podz and Moody on the wing? That’s how you keep an offense afloat when Steph Curry heads to the bench.

All this discussion about his offensive brilliance, and I have hardly mentioned he scored 25 points per 75 possessions across the last three seasons. The NCAA is a far friendlier environment for a guy like Trayce to get high usage, but there is more than enough reason to think he will be a plus scorer with his touch around the rim, strength, footwork, and touch out into the short midrange. He checks all the boxes the Warriors need offensively, and will be a seamless fit into the motion offense as a true 5.

Defense was a concern for any team trying to draft him, but the Warriors have been turning cents into dollars with their rim protection for years. They have posted back-to-back seasons with the top opponent rim field goal percentage with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green as the primary centers, and Jackson-Davis is taller than both of those guys. He has his athletic limitations, especially with lateral movement, but they can make drop bigs work with their personnel. Trayce has shown he can be a strong rotator and passable rim protector, and I’ve always liked how he positions himself to block and contest shots without costing himself valuable rebounding position. He’s even shown the occasional strong closeout in years past:

What happens on the bench wing spots is still up in the air, but Gary Payton II and Chris Paul will have the lion’s share of defensive possessions at the guard spots. GP2’s defense speaks for itself, and CP3 is smart enough not to put his bigs in avoidable defensive situations in the pick-and-roll. If he can control the restricted area, continue positive contribution on the glass, and occasionally show at the level of the screen to keep offenses honest, he won’t be a weak link in the defensive unit.

This was an absolute home run by the Warriors in my eyes. I had him listed as a high second-round buy in my draft day guide for Golden State, and had no expectation he would be available this late. A clear path to a rotation spot, great value, and an experienced winning player on a cheap multi-year deal. What else could you want from the 57th pick?

Javan Johnson

With Lester Quiñones set to graduate from the G-League soon after a massive season with the Santa Cruz Warriors, Javan Johnson should be another solid add to their developmental roster. If it’s buckets you need, buckets you will get from Javan.

A 24-year-old 5th-year senior, Johnson put up a strong season with DePaul (his third different CBB team) where he really found a groove. Initially miscast as a stretch forward, DePaul let Javan put the ball in his hands as much as possible and reaped the benefits.

He made 41.2% of his 6.0 threes attempted per game, 89% of which came in catch-and-shoot scenarios. At 6’6″-6’7″, he has a strong release point and quick, repeatable motion that evokes flashes of Isaiah Joe. When you’re sniffing around undrafted free agents, having one immediately translatable skill is a great starting point. He’s pretty good at using body fakes and cuts to open up shooting opportunities as well, and profiles as much more than a “stand there with your hands ready” kind of shooter. There are some signs as well that Javan could be more than a catch-and-shoot specialist.

It’s likely that the rim pressure game never gets there. Possessing middling handle and burst, Johnson was never a free-throw guy in college and it’s hard to imagine that getting better at the highest level. Yet Johnson has smooth footwork and touch, and showcases an ability to get into the midrange off the dribble or attacking closeouts. A one-level scorer is hard to translate, but a two-level scorer gives you a bit more meat on the bone. If teams have to respect the shot, chances will open up for 1-2 dribble pull-ups in the midrange, especially above drop when he is coming off screens.

On the defensive end, Johnson doesn’t profile as much of a wing stopper. He can make some technically sound plays but lacks the requisite foot speed and strength to stay with most scoring wings. However, he has shown some flashes in rotation, consistently posting a solid block rate for an off-ball wing. If he has to be hidden at the 4 spot defensively, that really puts a damper on his overall prospects to find an NBA niche.

But this is undrafted free agency; these guys don’t get to this stage without some flaws. It gives them another project in Santa Cruz with at least one pliable skill, and shooting specialists are always good to bet on for such a low risk (see Heat, Miami).

The post Warriors Draft Day Wrap-Up appeared first on Swish Theory.

The sample for NBA draft prospects is tiny. Even if we have perfect data for a player’s prep and pro careers, the top draft prospects are typically aged 18-22, undergoing massive changes to their games and lives over the span of mere months, over and over in evolving environments and around new personnel.

Combing through that limited data, we search for narratives, precedents, guys that “just have it,” from a scout’s perspective.

In search for a method to the madness this cycle, I’m splitting my draft analysis pieces into three:

• “Whiteboard” Prospects: those whose stats improve as they play worse competition, declining, then, against the top teams
• “Green Flags Only” Prospects: those whose stats exceed certain thresholds regardless of level of competition
• Everyone Else

This, first of two pieces, looks at what I’m calling Whiteboard prospects. Their top-end traits are obvious, but for that reason can be prepared for by the better opponents. As I watch this group, I seek to answer two questions:

• Do they struggle against increasing competition in a way that would be a problem in the NBA?
• Do they simply dominate lower-ranked competition that much?

Definition

I defined Whiteboard Prospects as having a certain set of traits decline against good competition, increase against bad competition:

• Box Plus-Minus
• Percentage of teammates’ FGM assisted
• True shooting percentage
• Steal rate.

As long as these decline from all competition to games against top-100 teams, then again against top-50 teams, and are also on Swish Theory’s Big Board 1.0, they’re a Whiteboard Prospect.

Let’s get to it.

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara

• vs. all competition: 10.0 BPM
• vs. top 100 teams: 6.5 BPM
• vs. top 50 teams: 3.9 BPM

Podziemski I thought was going to be an easy read, especially given the severity of decline, the single largest from overall comp to top-50 in our sample. But it was far from that.

Against bad competition, “Podz” did everything. Shooting at a 66% effective field goal percentage and 28% usage, he also maintained a 25% assist rate, 21% defensive rebound rate and 3% steal rate. His stats were heavily buoyed by, simply, never missing from three, where he took over half his shots and made over half of those attempts. That is basically impossible to stop, especially if you are a team ranked in the 200-400 range.

Against better competition, the athletic limitations showed, as expected. He struggles to create much distance on his dribble moves, leading to forced tough angle floaters, but those still go in at decent rates. Truly, Podz put up a historically efficient scoring season.

Projecting that at the next level is tricky. 80-179 (45%) from three, 62-146 (42%) from midrange, 75-121 (62%) at the rim is tough to argue with, but 8-17 (47%) from three, 7-25 (28%) from midrange and 7-19 (37%) from close range is what he tallied against top-50 teams. Another reminder of the inherent uncertainty in percentages.

However, Podziemski is armed with a mighty weapon to limit this downgrade against better competition: he plays really hard, and processes the game very quickly. There is one type of game processing that is Chris Paul-like, setting up one play to set up the next, and then there is Podz’s sharklike approach, always advantage-seeking from all angles. He goes for the kill with his hit-ahead passes or finding cutters, which leads to some sloppy turnovers, but, when coupled with his nose for the ball, means Podziemski will pick up change wherever it comes loose.

Finally, his pull-up three is legit. The release is low, but he needs little room to get it off and has enough 1-2 release patterns to get there.

Results: Primary odds fade, but secondary and especially tertiary shine. He’ll find a way to contribute, I’m sure

Brandon Miller, Alabama

• vs. all competition: 11.0 BPM
• vs. top 100 teams: 9.9 BPM
• vs. top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM

We move from Brandin to Brandon, first to second largest decline in overall production as NCAA competition increases. This exercise was less kind to Alabama’s Miller, placed in a cushier position and, given he is a 6’9’’ ballhandler projected to go in the top 5, the light is naturally a bit harsher.

The obvious knock on Miller this season was his rim finishing. He shot 74% at the rim against teams ranked 50-400, an elite figure that fits a top scorer prospect. But only 44% at the rim against teams in the top 50, representing about half of his possessions. Considering Brandon is also old for a freshman, this is a bit concerning for a player with his level of touch and fluidity with the ball.

Miller’s drives tend to develop slowly. His handle is strong, as are his ball custodian instincts, making him a decent point forward option to kick off an offense with a pull-up threat. But, while he can create initial separation, he lacks the flexibility to lower his shoulder to turn angles to the rim or burst to hit those openings, and his vertical takes long to load. Both of these factors combine to mean forced difficult finishes, which he figured out to some extent but will remain a problem in the NBA.

Perhaps more concerning, however, was the defensive tape as competition increased. Alabama is full of rangy, athletic wings who can handle tough matchups. This allowed them to let Miller, with his team-leading usage, take easier assignments. One of the main consequences of going up in competition is stronger worst option, and this showed with Miller’s defense. The same lack of flexibility and burst that limits his finishing also make Miller a worse chaser from interior to perimeter. His help was often too conservative into the paint, with not enough burst to then close out effectively.

His long wingspan and overall solid instincts mediate this, but I would not be surprised if Miller would be targeted significantly in a playoff series in his prime. That may be an aggressive take, again considering his feel for the game is strong overall, but I think it is more representative of his ability than the current top 3 talk.

Miller has a lot to like, especially how good he is at locating shooters off the dribble while he probes for his shot, or how he gets set off the move into his three. But the overall state of his game reads more like a #10 pick than top 5.

Results: some rust to the star shine

Judah Mintz, Syracuse

• vs. all competition: 1.5
• vs. top 100 teams: -0.2
• vs. top 50 teams: -2.5

Judah Mintz has a space creation and space maintenance problem. His touch is legit, but opponents know it, and with limited volume from three point range for a guard, he can be predictable in how he gets into it.

Mintz is young and has time to build counters for this, as there are plenty, but I would not feel comfortable rolling him out on an NBA court next season until there is much more evidence of that. He shot 43% on 67 runners, a figure I’d be comfortable penciling in as Mintz’ floor for the shot type. The average degree of difficulty, particularly as competition ramped up, was sky high.

He has built his game around a shot that will always be available to him – tough floaters – but that is still unlikely to be very efficient offense on its own, particularly with a lack of strong acceleration. But, Mintz is also blessed with an advantage-seeking type of passing creativity. Not necessarily the best at setting up an offense, Mintz has a keen eye for brief moments of openings, and also how his shotmaking creates them.

That is a potent combination for a scorer, but the scoring needs more supports. The easiest solution, by far, is to up the three point volume. Judah took more midrange attempts (189) than any freshman with so few three point attempts (66). When factoring in his strong FTA and rim attempt counts, that puts him in the company of De’Aaron Fox and Tony Wroten as far as previous draft picks, Elfrid Payton when including sophomore seasons. Mintz’s burst is certainly closer to that of Payton than Fox or Wroten, and we saw what happened to Elfrid without credible three point volume.

Mintz shot 6 of 24 (25%) from catch and shoot and 11 of 35 (31%) from pull-up threes. Not great. He seems hamstrung by a lack of strength, a lanky build but time to add on. Adding core strength should be Judah’s priority #1, helping both with his burst and ability to launch when opponents go under on pick and roll.

Suffice it to say, Mintz has a strength issue on defense as well. He has good passing lane instincts, once again making up for his lack of consistent presence with timely high-value plays.

Mintz has a route to being a very potent scorer, but I think it would benefit him to spend either another year in college or significant time in NBA weight rooms to get there.

Results: Potential end of shotclock star, with a 1-2 year path to get there

Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois

• vs. all competition: 6.1 BPM
• vs. top 100 teams: 5.1 BPM
• vs. top 50 teams: 2.1 BPM

I was a bit shocked the degree to which Shannon’s stats declined as competition increased, given his athletic profile and semblance of shotmaking, playmaking on both ends. But the tape revealed clear limitations to TSJ’s handle in particular that make me concerned for his ability to fit into an NBA team quickly.

Terrence Shannon Jr. is fast, perhaps the burstiest player in all of college basketball. That is an extremely, often underrated quality for an NBA player to have, one I just complained about lacking in Judah Mintz’ game currently. If you give the ball to TSJ as he gets downhill, he’s gonna get downhill. He can hit any straight line gap and keep the space with his strength. He will get open court NBA steals this way.

However, the cupboard is a bit bare when it comes to options for maximizing this advantage. In particular, Shannon is extremely left-handed, and with few handle counters beyond his pull-up if opponents sit on it. Another fortunate trait of Shannon’s, though, is his touch is indeed good. I’d bet he shoots among the best in the class for those with shortest load time into pull-up threes: a hand-tracked stopwatch estimate places him often around 0.4 seconds from plant to release, about a tenth of a second quicker than Mintz.

On defense as well, I hope for more from TSJ. I’ve long been a fan of his versatility as a big guard, but on this watch found myself having doubts on his ability to handle difficult matchups in the NBA. He knows how to be physical when engaged, but often floats near his mark and gives up space he shouldn’t. Perhaps with NBA-level training this can improve, but still disappointing for an upperclassman who could have been more of a stalwart for the Illini.

TSJ is a Whiteboard prospect, but likely shouldn’t be at this point in his career. He has had success with his pull-up (88th percentile) but at the cost of refining his catch and shoot mechanics (29th percentile), the latter of which will be more important for his life as an NBA role player. Without the star equity that a developed driving game (0.8ppp) would enable, his inconsistent presence on defense becomes a greater concern as well.

Results: NBA athlete, but the skills development has to continue

Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine

• vs. all competition: 1.2
• vs. top 100: -2.2
• vs. top 50: -2.4

First of all, we have to address the baseline of production. That degree of negative box plus-minus – a box score measure meant to estimate plus-minus – is extremely concerning for a prospect mocked in the first round. I have wanted to believe in Max as even a lottery level prospect, as his tools are that enticing, particularly his stride length, length for position and shotmaking abilities. The combination of qualities he has is rare. Extremely rare. And a good star predictor too. But having 13 games against top 100 competition and only shooting an effective field goal percentage of 46% and turning the ball over at a 23% clip to 14% assist rate, only 1.3% steal rate despite those tools is a major red flag.

To my dismay, this showed up in the tape. To be fair to Lewis, he has not been in organized basketball for as long as many he faced and Pepperdine had many flaws in the roster. He often faced completely stacked defenses, so that when the shot clock dwindled, he would face endless help. But that is the archetype he will be expected to succeed in, and the numbers when under pressure (0 shooting fouls to 8 turnovers in late shot clock situations) showed up in the tape as he often stepped out of bounds when rushed.

But, man, he has such creativity in finding his shots I almost don’t want to care. When we write about Whiteboard prospects, this is exactly the prototype. I believe Lewis has as good of instincts as any his age at finding a gap to attack automatically as he drives, it’s just cleaning up the rough edges around that which need a lot of work.

The reward here is high, and tangible: Max can hit difficult shots with the best of them. But a team needs to be keenly aware of what to expect as far as his year one usage. He will be targeted on screens. He will turn the ball over if help takes him by surprise. But he’ll teleport across the floor with the ball before gracefully dropping it in, too.

Results: Whiteboard prospect embodied, elite shotmaker potential but little faith in being a consistent foundation piece without major improvements

Adem Bona, UCLA

• vs. all competition: 5.0 BPM
• vs. top 100 teams: 4.6 BPM
• vs. top 50 teams: 2.8 BPM

Bona is a bit surprising to be found on this list, by all accounts a solid rim protector who does his dirty work and doesn’t overextend elsewhere. That remained the case during my tape watch, but I see why his stats changed so much, as well.

A big factor is his role in UCLA’s system. They have elite wing defenders in Jamie Jacquez Jr. and Jaylen Clark to rack up stocks, and Tyger Campbell, while not imposing in size, is a ball demon to create transition offense. Against bad teams, adding Bona into the mix is simply not fair. UCLA rarely lets up clean paint touches against sub-100, even opponents in the 50-100 range. And when they do, Bona is ready to pounce.

Against the top 50 squads, where UCLA faces more of a challenge, Bona was used in many different ways. This is his genius: you can throw Bona in a full blitz, in a hedge, drop, man on the perimeter, helpside rotator, whatever, and he’ll be useful. Bona understands how to use his length, strength and speed as instruments in whatever task, an ability that will benefit playoff teams in particular with his defensive versatility.

There are cracks that form, however, particularly in his often overzealous rotations, throwing off the timing in sync with the team defense a bit, and I think his timing on blocks is more very good than top 1% among shotblockers. This can mean having to recover from distances longer than he needs, and not being quite able to pull it off. That can be developed, but does mean I could see him struggling a bit to kick off his NBA career even if playing even harder.

Then, there’s the offense. I struggle to see him ever been a true positive offensive player, but can make it work with constant screens and vigilance to look for lobs. His box outs are spectacular, as well, using his body to create space as well as anyone I’ve seen this draft cycle. However if he gets the ball and doesn’t know immediately what to do with it, things can get ugly, as he is simply not comfortable doing things beyond catch and finish.

With his special defensive versatility, he’ll find his way to NBA relevance at some point. Keeping things simple would help him fit neatly into a very valuable type of rim protector.

Result: NBA-ready rim protector, just needs to slow things down

Taylor Hendricks, UCF

• vs. all competition: 7.1 BPM
• vs. top 100 teams: 6.4 BPM
• vs. top 50 teams: 5.1 BPM

Being further down this list means “less dynamic,” or, most consistent across components, and that is exactly what I discovered in watching Hendricks’ tape. The primary trend being picked up, I believe, is that as a member of a #63-ranked team by barttorvik.com, UCF was a cuspy NCAA team that could take out lower ranks with ease but struggle against the top 20s.

An interesting phenomenon took me by surprise, though: as his teammates struggled increasingly against future professional basketball players, Hendricks’ uniqueness popped. After all, his 5.1 BPM against top 50 teams is still second best on this list so far.

Hendricks has two traits that will serve him very well early in his career. First, his shot has an automatically stabilizing quality to it, as if a string goes directly through his shot pocket. It is light into the loading and skies maximizing Hendricks’ seemingly over seven-foot wingspan. Second, he has unbelievable lateral movements combined with elite hand-eye placement on blocks or steals. Physically, I feel like he is one of the more underrated athleltes, even as he is considered universally a very good athlete. Behind Wemby, Scoot, Amen and Ausar, Hendricks provides instantaneous movements and blankets entire sections of the court.

His help rotations need some work, too often pinching in too far or struggling with the complexity of multiple screens, but seemed to do increasingly well as his responsibilities increased. He always plays hard and is ready to be challenged. He does not let up easy layups, as he has the tools to make plays at the rim from distance.

The biggest issue with Hendricks is his lack of any real craft inside on offense, defaulting to a quick jumper instead of trying to solve those problems. But mitigating that is that fact that, well, his quick jumpers are really good. He has displayed some passing creativity, if not consistent advantage creation, but also hunts drive angles and is able to get his body lower to the ground than you’d think to maximize angles.

I came into this watch considering Taylor Hendricks an easy top 20 but probably not top 10, certainly not top 8 prospect. Now I think he could finish top 5 in the class eventually, and his warts are maybe not as bad as those talked around him, given the flashes of sky-high upside.

Results: a top 10-worthy pick

Keyonte George, Baylor

• vs. all competition: 4.7
• vs. top 100 competition: 3.9
• vs. top 50 competition: 2.9

Keyonte George’s projection is complicated by unusual usage, often the third guard on Baylor parked in the slot. At IMG Academy he had more clearcut combo guard duties, where he had more priority in the offense to take advantage of above-the-break spacing. George, as well as upperclassmen Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer, took turns initiating, and with little interior threat, often had to do so within single possessions.

A more fluid offense will benefit George mightily at the next level, where his combination of skills is compelling. In particular, Keyonte has lightning quick processing off the catch, able to whip the ball to open teammates in a flash or rise into his smooth, technically sound release. That optionality, in addition to proficiency out of the pick and roll, where Synergy ranks him in the 81^st percentile on possessions that ended in his shots or passes, give him a valued skillset at the NBA level.

Where the tape turns against George, however, is placing his athleticism against NBA athletes, a major part of the story when his production drops against better competition. First, it’s simply easy to get Keyonte out of frame by targeting him on defense. At 6’4’’ and more SG than PG, Keyonte does not have the lateral quickness or length to contest after being screen or on distance close-outs.

On offense, again we see the combination of short for position and slow-footed for position reflect poorly on his ability to create much distance off the dribble. His side step into a three is very good, an important sign of developing counters to otherwise lackluster space creation. In particular, if he can develop a stampede step or heavy crossover into a Harden-style double-stepback (first onto one foot, then two), those types of menu items could launch him into stardom.

Right now, however, I see an extremely useful offensive player who could grease the wheels regardless of landing spot.

Results: The elite is elite and obstacles are obvious; what level of starter could he be remains a major question mark

GG Jackson, South Carolina

• vs. all competition: -0.5 BPM
• vs. top 100 teams: -1.6 BPM
• vs. top 50 teams:  -1.9 BPM

GG’s numbers were ugly no matter how you sliced the competition, but saw his assist and steal rates deteriorate the most as the opponents improved. Jackson was in a rare spot for a freshmen, with only Collin Sexton, Markelle Fultz, Jabari Parker, RJ Barrett, Jaylen Brown and D’Angelo Russell taking on greater usage all over the court as high major freshmen. That entire crew had over 100 attempts from the rim, midrange, three and free throw line in their sole NCAA season with usage at 30% or higher, an astronomical task for a freshman-aged player. Factor in how GG was not just young, but the youngest player in all of college basketball, and you get an even more unusual burden. Then, put on top of that the context of South Carolina being not just bad, but not even a top 200 team, and I understand if you’re throwing up your hands in confusion.

GG has earned a reputation as a chucker with low feel for the game, descriptions that may be correct at cursory glance but I believe to not hold up to further inspection. First of all, the context around him really is that bad. Factoring into how tight he was covered, his efficiency for both guarded and unguarded catch and shoot is both exactly league average.

Jackson’s efficiency was worst in isolation possessions, as, on a team with no other advantage creators outside of him, opponents could send as much help as they wanted. Lack of entry passing ability meant early seals or hard cuts would go unrewarded, though Jackson still kept making them. So he not just leaned on isolation possessions, but ended up #15 in the NCAA in iso possessions at 103.

When South Carolina’s lone traditional big sat, Jackson’s efficiency improved a significant degree (). It is true his passing creativity and vision is poor, but he is still able to zip establishing passes to keep an offense in rhythm (when he’s not in iso). An off-ball role would benefit him tremendously, as his turnover rate dropped significantly and efficiency was average to excellent in all of off-screen, roll man, putback, cut and spot up opportunities.

I believe in Jackson as a lottery bet on his ability to even take up this amount of offense on his shoulders, built with broad shoulders and a lightning quick second leap to make his presence consistently felt. His shooting form looks great to me, and ability to execute complex footwork at his size is often shocking. Those traits are what are valuable in isolation, with an inevitably better team context giving him upside we likely cannot yet discern.

Results: the most unusual context, but I see a future NBA scorer

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