There has not since been a men’s college basketball team as electrifying as their 2016-17 Wildcats, also featuring Bam Adebayo. Thanks to Fox and Monk sprinting the ball up the floor on every possession, UK played at a breakneck pace that thrust some classic battles upon us. Lonzo Ball went into Rupp Arena, amidst all the Ball v. Fox hype of the 2017 NBA draft cycle, and shushed the crowd in a 97-92 UCLA win. Three months later, Fox hung 39 on his head to knock UCLA out of the NCAA Tournament. There was also the time Monk dropped 47(!) on UNC in a 103-100(!!) win in late December. Yet, three months later, Luke Maye got it back in blood, hitting his famous buzzer beater to send Kentucky home in an Elite 8 all-timer.

Fox sat in the locker room after that loss, hugging Adebayo and sobbing during an interview. That intimate moment, where Fox continually repeats how much he loves his guys, is one of the more touching moments college basketball has produced, for me, and emblematic of what made that Kentucky team so magnetic. Monk punched air and screamed after every big play, whether by him or a teammate. Fox, whose competitiveness was a tad more reserved, showing up in ways like guarding Ball full-court in their matchups, would only join Monk in outward celebration during their most euphoric moments. The many that argued that college basketball was losing its soul in a one-and-done era nearing the creation of NIL clearly weren’t watching Fox and Monk at Kentucky.

The reunion of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk in Sacramento isn’t just one of this postseason’s best storylines because it feels nice, though. They’re hooping. The same two hair-raising athletes that arrived in Kentucky when Kevin Durant arrived in Golden State are now looking to drive a stake through the heart of a basketball dynasty. You grow up fast.

The league’s best regular season offense has an ORTG of only 111.9 over their first four games against the Warriors, just a 40th percentile mark. However, when Fox and Monk share the court, that number balloons to 121.7 without much defensive slippage. (Monk in particular has some ridiculous on/off splits, SAC’s offense has been 18 points/100 better with him. 18!)  Overall, Fox/Monk lineups have played just fewer than half of this series’ possessions, but are out-scoring the Dubs by nearly nine points/100. 

Some of this is due to the non-Monk Kings, particularly Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes, missing just about every 3-pointer they take. But Monk’s only shooting a mediocre 35% from deep against the Dubs himself. In a beautiful, full-circle moment, the questions Fox and Monk have answered from their Kentucky days has turned them into a dynamic, complementary backcourt, one that Sacramento is depending on.

Monk has always been an explosive athlete with outside shooting touch, the question for him was if he could turn those skills into halfcourt creation reps. The perennial demand of his archetype: Can he slow down and incorporate some craft into his game? The answer, clearly, is yes.

The fun part about Monk’s growth as a creator is not that he’s overhauled his offensive game, rather the opposite. By playing with varied pace and then refining the details of that pace – screen usage as a guard, eye manipulation, etc. – Monk allows his athleticism and touch to shine, and now we’re wowed again.

The screen usage, specifically, is popping vs. Golden State. At this rate, there may not be a more feared screen rejector in the league by the start of next season. Monk has seemingly rejected as many ball-screens as he’s actually, you know, used in this series, but the results have been fantastic.

Fantastic…and fun! Cross-spin, pound-cross, killer cross, Monk is cooking the only way he knows how. Yet, as those clips evidence, Golden State can’t throw their best perimeter defender on the court, whoever that may be at the time, on him. Why? Well, that guy has to worry about De’Aaron Fox.

Fox always did and still does face questions as an outside shooter, and therefore, an off-ball player. But his 32% mark from deep on the year belies the quality of shooter he’s really turned into. Forget the Game 2 dagger to give the Kings a late, insurmountable 107-101 after being 1-9 from deep up to that point. How about standing up to a vintage Steph Curry bomb with a catch-and-shoot off of, of course, a Monk drive-and-kick:

Fox and Monk are now largely interchangeable, or at least capable, as offensive creators and spacers. Late in the first quarter of Game 4, Andrew Wiggins was guarding Fox, forcing Moses Moody to knuckle up and stay in front of Monk. He, somewhat predictably, could not avoid the inevitability of Monk successfully rejecting a screen. Meanwhile, on the weak side, Fox slyly lifted from the corner to the wing, creating a more open but more functionally difficult pass for Monk to make off of his drive. He made it anyway:

Fox and Monk have each done the work to make this backcourt work once again, this time in an NBA setting, six years later, without even knowing it. This is, after all, Monk’s first season in SacTown, and each of their first playoff appearances. Not only have they covered the holes in their games, but they’ve covered each other too, allowing for more classic Fox and Monk magic.

With the ex-Wildcats, the Kings can push the ball up court with either one, just like we saw at Kentucky. Having two speedy ball-handlers on the court, rather than just one release valve, makes a world of difference for Sacramento.

• Transition points/100, total: 106.6
• Transition points/100 (Fox/Monk minutes): 126.7

In transition, the fellas play the classics. Here, Fox sprints the ball up court, even after the Kings have to take the ball out of the net. No problem. He collapses the defense severely on his jaunt toward the paint, and the Warriors are out of whack immediately in the possession, to the point where nobody notices Monk relocating along the perimeter. Well, nobody besides Fox:

This isn’t (just) small sample size theatrics, or a case of streaky shooting from Monk. He and his point-guard-for-life have developed into such a cohesive backcourt that they are not only working on an NBA floor, a thought that would’ve brought a tear to my eye six years ago, but they might be Sacramento’s best answer for the defending champions. Of course, things aren’t all rosy in the City of Trees. Fox, in a monumental Game 5, plans on playing through an avulsion fracture in his dominant index finger. Monk, for all his chaotic brilliance in this series to date, dipped into some poor, old habits late in Game 4 by being a little overzealous early in the shot-clock and kamikaze-ing Kings possessions. Head Coach Mike Brown alluded to it in his post-game presser after Game 4, saying his guys were “driving into two, sometimes three guys, in transition and begging for a call, and we can’t continue to do that.”

Regardless, what Fox and Monk are doing in Sacramento must be appreciated, even if their season may be as little as two days away from over. Their Kentucky days, which will live on in highlights and quick winks to the real NBA fans for knowing they existed, were so much more than just that. Their Sacramento days are becoming the perfect epilogue to that era. As basketball players, their improvements have made this pairing possible once again; their current synergy is deeper than it was, improved in the ways that every 19-year-old hopes to improve in by the time they’re 25. They can no longer be pigeon-holed, limited to specific functions; their relationship is fuller, more complex and meaningful because of it. Kings basketball has been dripping in that incalculable ‘something special’ all season long, and for it, they owe a big thank you to De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. As basketball fans, so do we.

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But the first two games felt like the Warriors stood in the same spot and dug a 15-foot hole straight down and became shocked when they couldn’t climb out.

Despite out-shooting the Kings for two games on the road, a seemingly impossible feat considering Golden State’s road shooting splits, they couldn’t stop tripping over themselves. The advantage from deep (30% on 70 attempts for SAC vs. 32% on 90 attempts for GSW) has been negligible, but the advantage inside the arc has been a major surprise. GSW is making 65% of their twos, compared to 54% from Sacramento.

What’s really killing them is the volume of high-value shots they are allowing to Sacramento. Not only are they taking 50% more shots inside the arc than Golden State by total volume, but they are also getting high-value short midrange shots that GSW has traditionally allowed. De’Aaron Fox especially is able to take advantage of that:

The shooting percentage on twos and from deep has also been completely negated by the Kings pummeling the undersized and under-hustling Warriors on the offensive glass. A 17-9 margin in Game 1 and 12-9 in Game 2 only furthers Golden State’s deficit in shot totals. It’s no coincidence the Kings got 8 more shot attempts in a three-point Game 1 victory, and 10 more in Game 2. But the losses on the glass are only half the equation.

Unsurprisingly, Golden State has also lost the turnover battle in both games. That feeds right into the Kings’ high-powered transition game, and it’s absolutely murdering them.

Oh, did I mention the Kings also won the free-throw battle in both games because of their superior rim pressure and point-of-attack defense? And that Golden State’s defensive fulcrum will be missing for Game 3 after stomping out Domantas Sabonis like a Mortal Kombat finishing move?

So, Are We Cooked?

Maybe. It’s possible that Golden State is gearing up to charge out of the gates into death and glory like Theoden and Aragorn at Helm’s Deep. And though they don’t have reinforcements coming at dawn of the fifth day, they have one thing neither Sacramento nor Saruman possesses: Wardell Stephen Curry II.

Through the course of his playoff career, Curry has played in 12 do-or-die games while down 2-1 or 3-2 in the series. He averages 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while the team has posted an astounding 8-4 record with their backs against the wall. He’s at his most dangerous when threatened, and I fully expect him to go nuclear tonight to try to avoid the first 3-0 series deficit of his career. Never having been down 2-0 is an incredible feat by itself, and Steph will do all he can to hold the tide. The increased PNR frequency will be on full display tonight: expect a good 50 ball screens for Curry tonight.

But against the best offense in the league, he won’t be enough by himself.

Supporting Cast is Called To Action

Without Draymond Green, lots of other players will need to step up. Even if Jonathan Kuminga joins the starting lineup, the Warriors will need a Herculean effort from future Chase Center statue-haver Kevon Looney. The league leader in offensive rebounds needs to put on a one-man glass-cleaning show to negate Sacramento’s advantage on the glass.

They’re also going to rely heavily on the off-ball rotations from Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. So much of their first-ranked opponent rim percentage mark is predicated on getting the right rotations from Draymond Green, and without him, someone will need to step in to help Kevon Looney when dealing with Sabonis in the post, trying to contain De’Aaron Fox drives, or tracking and erasing their cutting wings.

Extra reliance on Jonathan Kuminga is perhaps a necessity tonight. Jordan Poole is not playing up to his pedigree, and Golden State is in dire need of a positive contributor on defense who can switch and stay engaged off the ball. Kuminga is also capable of filling Poole’s rim pressuring via cuts, rolls, slips, and drives without all the silly extra stuff that comes with Poole’s recent offensive performance.

The point-of-attack defense also needs to step up, especially if Poole is seeing diminished minutes. With less defensive mistakes to cover up, they’ll have to buckle down on Fox, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter to stop the endless purple tide of rim pressure, midrange mastery, and perimeter shooting.

How Can They Pull It Off?

We’ve seen the how. In the first quarter of Monday’s game, they showed crisp offense and a hustling defense that forced Sacramento into far more threes and turnovers than they would have liked while controlling the glass to boot. Then the effort faded, the defense collapsed, and so did the lead.

Effort is first and foremost. Fight for every inch on the glass. Guard the ball with necessary caution. Fly off every screen, cut and roll hard, and rotate with a purpose. They’re capable of out-talenting the Kings on a bad night, but they need to win games by outworking them. Another stale effort will find them at a point of no return.

They need to stay committed to blowing up Sacramento’s handoff actions, forcing Sabonis into double teams, and keeping De’Aaron Fox out of the middle at all costs. And offensively even a few minutes of stagnated movement and lack of cohesion can put them under against the best offense in the league. A full 48 minutes of crisp effort will win them this game, even without Draymond Green.

It’s entirely in the hands of the players now. If they don’t bring effort and execution to tonight’s matchup, they should start looking at flights to Cabo.

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The Warriors will play the Kings in their first-ever playoff matchup between division rivals. Both sides are laden with stars: Sacramento boasts one of the better offensive duos in the league in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, with a plethora of ideal role players to surround them. The Golden State championship core remains healthy, and it seems Andrew Wiggins will return to the lineup in some capacity after a lengthy absence.

Beyond Wiggins, who is a major question mark in terms of conditioning and overall sharpness, we know what we are getting from these players, especially on the offensive end. Fox and Sabonis will dominate on handoffs and high split actions, and Steph and Klay will run Sacramento ragged around the perimeter with Draymond initiating to punish the Kings’ lackluster half-court defense. It’s the less predictable players that will define this exciting matchup.

But one player has the potential to swing the series in either direction.

Point-of-Attack Pressure: A Series-Defining Question

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Kings are a middling team in terms of allowing shots at the rim, ranking 15th overall. They also allow a large amount of midrange shots, mostly by design. Sabonis usually sticks in drop (where midrange attempts are always available) or plays high on the screen to blitz, but Sacramento has excellent perimeter rotators in Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray. Even if you beat the blitz at the screen level, they are more than capable of rotating and contesting well at the rim. Thus you have a team conceding the 10th-highest midrange frequency in the league.

That increased midrange frequency acts as a disguise for their lack of true rim protection. Being below-average at midrange frequency/accuracy as a defense is far more volatile than allowing lots of rim looks. Allowing a more volatile shot at a higher rate can give your defense an extra boost on nights when the middies aren’t falling. If a team beats them from there, so be it, but they’re going to sell out to stop the Warriors from getting two feet in the paint.

This is where Jordan Poole plays a critical role.

An Elite, But Volatile, Paint Toucher

Jordan Poole’s downhill game has always been a question of potential vs. production. Despite possessing an elite first step and developing handle, he was a below-average rim attempt guard this past season. The reasons for this are twofold: he’s often pull-up happy when he could drive and tends to reject screens in favor of isolation. Likely to be facing a lot of POA world-beater Davion Mitchell in bench lineups, going 1v1 is not the move. The pull-up threes are fine in the aggregate, but he needs to push the gas a bit harder to exploit Sacramento’s true defensive weaknesses.

He is certainly capable of beating elite perimeter defenders off the dribble to get paint touches. Dejounte Murray is no slouch, but a quick spin cycle puts him on the back hip below and collapses the defense:

But with Golden State’s elite screening, JP will have to make use of those to create extra advantages against an elite defender like Davion. And those chances will be there in the normal flow of their offense, especially in low post split actions with Sabonis defending.

Take this possession as an example. The Ty Jerome screen forces Saddiq Bey over, putting him in a trail position, and Poole uses that to full advantage with the baseline drive. Golden State’s elite cutting wings and bigs know when to find their opportunities, but it requires a player to draw in the defense first. And it can’t just be all Steph Curry.

Not only will Poole need to contend with a lot of Davion, but the Kings will also blend a lot of looks against him. Sabonis will be in drop, blitz the ballhandler, or even stunt at the level sometimes. It’s a similar case to a game against Minnesota a few weeks ago. Though Rudy Gobert is one of the best defensive bigs in recent memory, he is coverage limited in similar ways to Domas. That didn’t seem to matter to Jordan against a far superior defensive squad:

If in a strict drop, he can get leverage for a midrange shot. At the level, he can scurry downhill before the defense has a chance to rotate. If Sacramento tries to switch (or is forced into one), he will obliterate bigs 1v1. He’s also more than capable of hitting the short midrange shots that Sacramento is schematically willing to concede over layups and dunks.

What this comes back to is decision-making, not ability. Will he blend playmaking for others enough with getting his own shots? Can he press the advantage on switches instead of settling for off-the-dribble jumpers? Is he going to be content with midrange shots, or will he get into the bodies of the rotators and attempt to get contact?

Pressing the Variability Button

Though both teams love to shoot threes, with variance aplenty, these teams are largely predictable. Fox will collapse the paint. Sabonis will dominate with the ball in his hands while in the post. Steph and Klay will rain threes while Draymond captains the defense and keeps the offense flowing. Sacramento’s strong wing group of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray will make good defensive choices while cutting and shooting the lights out.

If Jordan Poole can slow himself enough to read the defense, make quick decisions, and collapse the paint, he could swing the entire series in Golden State’s favor. He’s more than capable of deciding the bench minutes by his play alone. If he chucks from deep, rejects screens, and looks off his teammates, the beam may be lit more often than not.

Will he be the player Golden State is paying him to be?

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