Does that thought scare you? It should.
The Warriors will play the Kings in their first-ever playoff matchup between division rivals. Both sides are laden with stars: Sacramento boasts one of the better offensive duos in the league in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, with a plethora of ideal role players to surround them. The Golden State championship core remains healthy, and it seems Andrew Wiggins will return to the lineup in some capacity after a lengthy absence.
Beyond Wiggins, who is a major question mark in terms of conditioning and overall sharpness, we know what we are getting from these players, especially on the offensive end. Fox and Sabonis will dominate on handoffs and high split actions, and Steph and Klay will run Sacramento ragged around the perimeter with Draymond initiating to punish the Kings’ lackluster half-court defense. It’s the less predictable players that will define this exciting matchup.
But one player has the potential to swing the series in either direction.
Point-of-Attack Pressure: A Series-Defining Question
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Kings are a middling team in terms of allowing shots at the rim, ranking 15th overall. They also allow a large amount of midrange shots, mostly by design. Sabonis usually sticks in drop (where midrange attempts are always available) or plays high on the screen to blitz, but Sacramento has excellent perimeter rotators in Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray. Even if you beat the blitz at the screen level, they are more than capable of rotating and contesting well at the rim. Thus you have a team conceding the 10th-highest midrange frequency in the league.
That increased midrange frequency acts as a disguise for their lack of true rim protection. Being below-average at midrange frequency/accuracy as a defense is far more volatile than allowing lots of rim looks. Allowing a more volatile shot at a higher rate can give your defense an extra boost on nights when the middies aren’t falling. If a team beats them from there, so be it, but they’re going to sell out to stop the Warriors from getting two feet in the paint.
This is where Jordan Poole plays a critical role.
An Elite, But Volatile, Paint Toucher
Jordan Poole’s downhill game has always been a question of potential vs. production. Despite possessing an elite first step and developing handle, he was a below-average rim attempt guard this past season. The reasons for this are twofold: he’s often pull-up happy when he could drive and tends to reject screens in favor of isolation. Likely to be facing a lot of POA world-beater Davion Mitchell in bench lineups, going 1v1 is not the move. The pull-up threes are fine in the aggregate, but he needs to push the gas a bit harder to exploit Sacramento’s true defensive weaknesses.
He is certainly capable of beating elite perimeter defenders off the dribble to get paint touches. Dejounte Murray is no slouch, but a quick spin cycle puts him on the back hip below and collapses the defense:
But with Golden State’s elite screening, JP will have to make use of those to create extra advantages against an elite defender like Davion. And those chances will be there in the normal flow of their offense, especially in low post split actions with Sabonis defending.
Take this possession as an example. The Ty Jerome screen forces Saddiq Bey over, putting him in a trail position, and Poole uses that to full advantage with the baseline drive. Golden State’s elite cutting wings and bigs know when to find their opportunities, but it requires a player to draw in the defense first. And it can’t just be all Steph Curry.
Not only will Poole need to contend with a lot of Davion, but the Kings will also blend a lot of looks against him. Sabonis will be in drop, blitz the ballhandler, or even stunt at the level sometimes. It’s a similar case to a game against Minnesota a few weeks ago. Though Rudy Gobert is one of the best defensive bigs in recent memory, he is coverage limited in similar ways to Domas. That didn’t seem to matter to Jordan against a far superior defensive squad:
If in a strict drop, he can get leverage for a midrange shot. At the level, he can scurry downhill before the defense has a chance to rotate. If Sacramento tries to switch (or is forced into one), he will obliterate bigs 1v1. He’s also more than capable of hitting the short midrange shots that Sacramento is schematically willing to concede over layups and dunks.
What this comes back to is decision-making, not ability. Will he blend playmaking for others enough with getting his own shots? Can he press the advantage on switches instead of settling for off-the-dribble jumpers? Is he going to be content with midrange shots, or will he get into the bodies of the rotators and attempt to get contact?
Pressing the Variability Button
Though both teams love to shoot threes, with variance aplenty, these teams are largely predictable. Fox will collapse the paint. Sabonis will dominate with the ball in his hands while in the post. Steph and Klay will rain threes while Draymond captains the defense and keeps the offense flowing. Sacramento’s strong wing group of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray will make good defensive choices while cutting and shooting the lights out.
If Jordan Poole can slow himself enough to read the defense, make quick decisions, and collapse the paint, he could swing the entire series in Golden State’s favor. He’s more than capable of deciding the bench minutes by his play alone. If he chucks from deep, rejects screens, and looks off his teammates, the beam may be lit more often than not.
Will he be the player Golden State is paying him to be?
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