So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

This season the folks at Swish Theory are targeting a handful of players they think will bring more winning impact than expected in their respective roles. These players might not be superstars, but they won’t be benchwarmers, either. In the spirit of Zach Lowe, they are the Derrick White-esque Stars, players who pop on the screen and are expected to take a mini leap in their career progression this season, whether they do so as role players or impact starters.

Let’s examine the proven skills and potential developments for these five players: Jaden Ivey, Amen Thompson, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Chet Holmgren

Jaden Ivey

Offensive Role: Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Quick First Step Burst, Ball Handling, ISO/Handoff Scoring, Drive and Kick Playmaking Feel, Off-ball Cuts

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Needs opportunity to show Consistent Efficiency 3pt Shooting, in Pull-Up and C&S

Secondary Skillsets to Watch – Rim Finisher and Floor General
Needs opportunity and defined role to prove consistent efficiency at the rim, is only average PPP at P&R, needs defined role

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Quick feet on the perimeter, P&R Ball Handler Defense against Scorer, Off Screen and Handoff defense, contesting Runners and at the rim

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Cuts Off Drives
Can improve ISO defense
Secondary Skillseet to Watch – PNR Disruptor, Screen Navigator, Timely Rotator
While these are positive skills, can still improve navigating P&R Defense after passes and Deep Range Shot Contests for closeouts on 3pt shooters

Projection: Ivey needs opportunity in a role that maximizes his on-ball drive-and-kick strengths rather than reducing him to a spot-up off-ball threat, his worst attribute. Being 2nd fiddle next to a primary creator in Cade could make this difficult, but splitting up on-ball reps for both is not impossible, especially if staggering play and leaving one in the game at all times to run point and initiate offense.

Ivey has strengths in his game similar to De’Aaron Fox, a first step advantage creating speedster who can fly by any defender in front of him; when the 3pt pull-up is falling and the finishing at the rim is clean, there is no stopping him from scoring with single coverage, and good feel for the game leads to kickout reads.

Coaches could have him focus his energy more on POA defense when sharing the floor with Cade, and more on handling the offensive creation when against second units, while taking turns initiating in between. Both Cade and Jaden attempted 3.3 catch-and-shoot three-pointers per game last season, and Cade even shot the slightly better percentage at 37.1% to Ivey’s 35.5%, so setting Cunningham up for more off-ball looks could maximize both players’ strengths while creating additional opportunities for Cade to score attacking closeouts when the defense isn’t already set. Reducing Ivey to an off-ball spot up shooter with inconsistent or nonexistent playing time zaps him of his strengths and makes his weaknesses more glaring, if this balance with Cade can’t be found as 2nd option, a new team with 5-out spacing could be the better path to maximize Ivey’s development.

Jalen Suggs

Offensive Role: Currently a Floor-Spacing Super Connector, now looking to be a full-time Guard Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Connective Passing, C&S and Pull-Up 3p% on medium volume, High Motor, Relocation awareness, rocket in transition off forced TOs, Consistent development and efficiency in Spot Up, Transition, Handoff, and ISO

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Floor General
Look for development as decision maker in Primary Initiator Playmaking, without forcing tough passes and inefficient shots

Secondary Skillset to Watch – PnR Operator, Pull-Up Shooter
See if 3pt consistency carries over from elite shooting season without regression, and decisionmaking initating PnR

Defensive Role: Primary POA

Defensive Strengths: Screen Navigation, Strong Lockdown Versatilty 1-4, Hustle play demon, forcing turnovers at POA, never giving up on a possession, competitive energy

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Timely Rotator
Check if closing out on Spot Ups and Pull-Ups

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Cut off Drives
Watch one-on-one defense in ISO and Postups to see engagement.

In actuality, Jalen Suggs has little to no holes on defense; he is an elite point of attack defender who hounds opponents every possession and is strong and quick enough to switch 1-4. The only real question this upcoming season will be how Suggs balances energy between his new offensive load as a primary initiator with his defensive responsibilities. If anything, the challenge for Suggs will be maintaining energy on both ends for the entire season, every game, finding a balance between going all out every play expending defensive energy with his expected increased playmaking load on offense. Ideally, adding KCP and retaining Gary Harris while adding playing time for Anthony Black will help handle some of the defensive asks so Suggs can maximize his point guard play.

Projection: With Markelle Fultz no longer on the roster and Cole Anthony established as the second unit point guard role, the starting point guard duties now fully fall on Jalen Suggs’ wide shoulders. The acquisition of KCP and retention of Gary Harris brings two players focused on D&3 playfinishing into the backcourt, so Suggs opportunity to initiate offense is as clear as its ever been.

While still likely playing as the third scoring option to Paolo and Franz, Suggs will have the opportunity to initiate more offense this season, where his high volume lead point guard playmaking decision-making will be put to the test: Can Jalen set up his big wing costars for easier scoring opportunities and find a balance for himself to score when its the right play, letting the defense dictate the best decision without forcing too much? Will Suggs have enough energy left in the tank to go from lead point guard decisionmaker to once again be arguably the most impactful point of attack guard defender in the league? Jalen’s proven his motor never turns off, his development as a passer shooter and decisionmaker improves each season, and he stays hungry for more.

Suggs could see similar impact to peak Marcus Smart, who also saw his 3P% drastically rise from his rookie season and brings strong versatile defense to the backcourt. All-Defense, general consistency as a halfcourt initator, and another year of shooting lights out from deep would be a win on its own. If Jalen answers all these questions this season the right way, maybe Magic fans will finally see glimpses of the Chauncey Billups super connector all-star player comp that followed Suggs in the pre-draft days.

Anthony Black

Offensive Role: Connector

Offensive Strengths: Spot Up, Off Ball Cuts/Transition, Putbacks, Finishing at the rim, Making team-first reads, Winning plays, Open C&S 3s

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot, Floor General

While highly efficient on C&S attempts, Anthony Black generally looks to pass first or attack closeout with the drive. Seeing him be more aggressive as a scorer is something to keep an eye on, even though he already thrives in all Connector skillsets.
Similar to Suggs, seeing Black develop on-ball shot creation, creating looks for himself and others as the primary initiator, is something to look for in his development. Will we see higher volume and good efficiency in ISO, P&R Ball-Handler, Handoffs, Pull-Up Shooting, Floater, or will he stick to secondary off-ball actions like Cuts and low volume C&S? Opportunity with the team will be a big factor, as of preseason he will be a lead or secondary initiator coming off the bench.

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: Lockdown Switchability 1-4, Digs reaching for steals without fouling, closeout contests, defending P&RS both ball handlers and switching onto roll man, screen navigation against P&R/off screen plays

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skillset to Watch – Strong Frame

Let’s see Black’s develeopment in individual defense guarding ISO/Post-Up/Handoffs, if he’s added strength to bulk up.

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Walls off Drives
Does that strength help get more stops when players drive left or straight through at him?

Projection: Black is the likeliest of the Magic’s three youngest players to see consistent playing time, opportunity, and defined role this season because he brings two-way team-first impact on a team that’s always looking for that in its role players. With rising Stars in place in Paolo and Franz and defensive stalwarts anchoring first and second units in Suggs and Isaac, Orlando has much of its hustling brute force identity in place, needing floor-spacing connectors who can help get stops to flank these players.

While Anthony’s long-term potential development path could look like Derrick White as a connector and versatile dig-happy defender who wins 50/50 plays more often than a coin flip would suggest, this Magic team needs unselfish players with few holes to exploit, especially once the playoffs role around. Black is a natural connector who makes smart reads on both sides of the ball, uses graceful footwork and intriguing athleticism to force turnovers and eurostep through multiple defenders in transition, and does the basic role player things well with extreme effort and focus. Black can knock down the open C&S three, attack the closeout with the dribble, and make the extra pass for the better shot when it’s there.

Defensively his instincts are off the charts, timing up digs and deflections, rotating with mobility, knowing where be with ease and showing impressive defensive chops as a rookie getting stops against guards and wings, whether he himself is marked as a point guard or point forward ends up depending on the lineup he’s in, because he can shapeshift his role next to just about anyone as long as he’s not asked to initiate every shot from scratch.

Amen Thompson

Offensive Role: Forward Initiator

Offensive Strengths: Explosive North-South Driving Force of Nature with tight handles; smart connector playmaker; very good soft touch finisher; insane first step start stop body control speed; special spatial awareness of seeing where he wants to go and flawlessly executing the movements; advantage creator for himself and teammates; efficient offball playfinisher on Putbacks, Handoffs, P&R Roll-Man, Cuts;

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – Pull-Up Shooter
Keep an eye on Amen’s Pull-Up and Spot-Up Shooting Development, as it will open up driving lanes for his powerful downhill force
Secondary Skills to Watch – Floor General
Already a smart drive and kick threat, making next level reads in P&R/ISO Playmaking and Shot Creation for Team is worth watching

Defensive Role: Wing Stopper

Defensive Strengths: incredible mobility, feel, and energy on both ends of the floor with side-to-side defense, impressive screen navigation, lockdown versatile wing defense; great guarding ISOs, Handoffs, Spotups, PostUps

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Skill to Watch – PnR Disruptor
How does he hold up when P&R Defense gets complicated? Guarding P&R including passes, when defense commits, switching or tagging the roll-man in P&R

Secondary Skill to Watch – Screen Navigator
Can he utilize his athletic gifts to improves defending Off Screens?

Projection:

In Houston, it’s going to be hard to keep Amen on the bench; the bouncy talent is that palpable. Adding Rookie Reed Sheppard‘s knockdown shooting to the mix with Alperen Sengun‘s playmaking hub down low, along with Tari Eason‘s explosive playfinishing and versatile defense, Jabari Smith‘s knockdown shooting and helpside shotblocking, and Cam Whitmore‘s downhill athleticism of his own, Amen could emerge as a primary perimeter option with his quick first step burst advantage creation penetrating the paint to bend the defense and create looks for others, while bringing an off-ball play-finishing element of his own.

A strong perimeter defender, a powerful downhill force, a smart playmaker, Amen Thompson’s physical measurables and dynamic two-way feel show potential that he could ideally star in the league one day in ways that Andre Iguadola found success as a big wing versatile defensive ace, point forward connector, and paint-penetrating poster-dunking runaway train.

Chet Holmgren

Offensive Role: Play Finisher

Offensive Strengths: Mismatch postup killer, high efficiency on high volume of Cuts, P&R Roll Man, Pick and Pop, Putbacks, good efficiency on low volume of P&R ball-handler, ISO, Postups, strong when driving right, good reads passing out of ISO/P&R, great finisher and runners at the rim, shoots well below 17ft, plays physical, good handles to grab and go off board

Offensive Development Needs:

Primary Offensive Skillset to Watch – Catch & Shoot
Deep Range Jump Shot (Higher efficiency on C&S since given high volume of looks, off screen/handoff efficiency to build out versatility, cleaner pull-up jump shooting)

Secondary Skillset to Watch – Rim Finishing
Converting in Transition, Driving Left, Playmaking out of Post Ups, Bulk up Strength for Stronger Finishes at Rim

Defensive Role: Coverage Versatile

Defensive Development Needs:

Primary Defensive Skillset to Watch – Switchable
Strength in Post Ups and defensive mobility in P&R and Closeouts; Okay closing out catch-and-shoot jumpers but Contesting Shots gets worse the farther away from the rim he is, needs to work on defending P&R ball-handlers as drop defender and switching, could improve mobility/footwork to help contest and drop back on closeouts and 2v1s

Projection: Become the ultimate #2 next to a superstar #1 option MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, ideally developing into an All-Star one-man defensive ace switchable rim-protector like Anthony Davis who is at his best impact offensively as a pick-and-pop play-finisher against mismatches rather than being asked to initiate everything from scratch. Chet’s role can alternate between play-finishing against starters alongside more proven creators in Shai and Jalen Williams while stepping into a primary scoring option role against second units at times with his co-stars on the bench.

Chet shot a respectable 37% on 4.3 3PA his first year and shoots well at the pinstripe for a rookie big at 79%, promising indicators for future shooting and scoring development. Building consistency in his release and jump shot mechanics could make him one of the more difficult stretch bigs to defend, because his bag in the midrange postups is already deep when attacking mismatches and closeouts.

Holmgren plays physical, hitting harder for rebounds and postups than his frame would suggest, generally hunting contact to wreak havoc in the paint. While already a superb shotblocker and respectable rebounder, finding the balance to contest opponents without reaching or fouling is the next step to consistently making winning plays. Using his huge length, great timing, and cerebral defensive instincts to keep his feet chopping and his arms straight up should be more than enough to make offensive players wary of challenging him in the paint.

The post Finding A Role – Season Kickoff appeared first on Swish Theory.

Such is the current situation that Troy Weaver is a part of, or it would be if he paid attention to Twitter. There is no indication that there is any actual heat under his seat. But the Pistons’ faithful have expressed their exasperation with the third 11-plus game losing streak since last season’s deadline. With this kind of losing, questions arise. 

Is this Weaver’s fault? That is the question of the season if not this generation of Detroit basketball.

Questioning the Vision

It has been the case for a while that fans have questioned what exactly Troy Weaver is working towards. Sure, there were the jokes across the league about Weaver having a roster full of centers, yet when Duren got injured this season, the team was suddenly playing quite small. So what is the vision?

As basic as it is, talent is the vision. Two-way talent more specifically. Weaver wants to cultivate a culture with elite defensive acumen, athletic expertise, and good humans. He wants players who will come in every day and put in the work. Be accountable. Want to get better and improve their team and community. For many organizations, this would feel like a cliche at best. For a man who drops a creative cliche when given the opportunity (like talking about Halle Berry at church and the grocery store), it is who he truly is. 

So while this rebuild is in the beginning stages of its fourth season, Weaver should be judged on those merits, given that that is what he was hired to do. This roster has clearly not taken the turn into contention, so assessing those goals matters. Yes, fans want the play-in, playoffs, and more. But if that was not the actual organization’s objective, those stakes do not really matter. 

Nailing the Draft

The easiest part of Weaver’s job to assess has been drafting. This was his area of expertise when he was a part of the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise. So far, it is hard to argue with his success. His draft picks are as follows:

• 2020 seventh pick – Killian Hayes
• 2020 16th pick – Isaiah Stewart
• 2020 19th pick – Saddiq Bey
• 2020 38th pick – Saben Lee
• 2021 first pick – Cade Cunningham
• 2021 42nd pick – Isaiah Livers
• 2021 52nd pick – Luka Garza
• 2021 57th pick – Balsa Koprivca
• 2022 fifth pick – Jaden Ivey
• 2022 13th pick – Jalen Duren
• 2022 36th pick – Gabriele Procida
• 2023 fifth pick – Ausar Thompson
• 2023 25th pick – Marcus Sasser

For anyone counting at home, that is five first-round picks to make All-Rookie teams, with this year’s two looking on track to add to the total. Cunningham and Duren look like future All-Stars. Ivey does too on certain nights. Thompson has been astounding defensively in his month. Isaiah Livers was a second-round pick and looks like a cemented rotation player when healthy. 

The Foundation

For anyone expecting Cade Cunningham to come in and be an All-NBA level floor raiser this season on a consistent basis was likely putting the fan in fanatic. He just recently passed a full season’s worth of games played and is adjusting to a rod in his leg. Yes, the flashes of brilliance are exciting. Against the Indiana Pacers on November 24, Cade had an 18-point quarter as he was finally not facing two to three blitzing defenders per possession. Getting turnovers under control is his biggest hurdle, and he knows it.

When Duren has been on the court, Detroit is a noticeably better team. During the first couple weeks of the season, the Pistons were roughly middle of the pack defensively despite starting an entire lineup of players 22 or younger. Once Duren went out with his nagging injuries, the team fell to 27th. This is not an accident. While JD still needs to refine his skills, he provides a foundation for the rest of the team to fall back on. 

Further cementing that foundation, Weaver nailed selecting Ausar Thompson with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft. Thompson has already proven to be an elite defender and rebounds better than most bigs in the league. He is currently tied for sixth (with teammate Jalen Duren) in offensive rebounds. With solid playmaking instincts, the only thing that needs to come together is any ability to score. Ausar can get to the rim, but conversion remains a problem. 

Bonus Points

If you can have a three-year rebuild (because that is all you can assess Weaver on to this point) having selections like Jaden Ivey, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Livers, and Marcus Sasser being secondary really bolsters the resume. 

Stewart, to many, is the heart and soul of this team. In a perfect situation (one that involves a healthy Bogdanovic perhaps?), Stewart would be the big off the bench who provides defensive upside and the ability to space the floor. So far this season, the promise of a shot is finally being realized, converting at a 41.4 percent clip on more than three attempts per game. If this sustains, defenses will be forced to respect him out there, creating additional driving lanes for Cade, Ausar, and Jaden Ivey.

Ivey, for his part, has had the toughest task this season. Monty Williams singled him out as the player with the most bad habits that he required to be corrected. This led to him coming off the bench for the first few weeks and Twitter being in an uproar, firing up the trade machine. The vision started to pay off, though. 

Williams insisted that Ivey would have to improve his decision-making on both sides of the court to see an increased role. Nights like this (while also going off for 25 points) build confidence for both player and coach that the process is working. 

Livers has only been back for a few games but he is the ideal floor spacer for a team desperately in need of wing spacing and defense. Marcus Sasser has been a homerun for a pick in the 20s, and for more on him check out Charlie Cummings’ recent article. 

The Elephant in the Room

Killian Hayes has been a point of contention, and the ever-ascending star of Tyrese Haliburton has only made the comparison more glaring. Hayes is the only first-round pick for Weaver so far that feels like a miss, so naturally, he is the most discussed. 

Hayes being a starter for much of this season to date is about more than coaching stubbornness, though. Accountability has been essential and Ivey needed to prove that he could break some of his bad habits. For better or worse, those bad habits are things Hayes does not have. He averages less than a turnover per game (Ivey averages more than two per game, Cade nearly five) and he is an attentive defender. Stardom may not be in the cards, but Hayes certainly fills a role. 

Yes, Hayes feels like a miss, considering players like Haliburton and Tyrese Maxey were in the same class. But most teams would look back at the pandemic draft with myriad questions that never had a chance to be answered. Since then, Weaver has lived up to his reputation as a drafter. Building a team beyond that, however, is more of a mixed bag. 

Team Building

When Troy Weaver overturned the entire roster in his first year, fans should have known that he was going to be willing to build the team in his own vision. Aforementioned big man jokes aside, he has done just that. He has taken chances on reclamation projects. However, he has also shown the recognition that veterans are necessary to augment the young talent. 

This year more than any, the pieces fit on paper. Plenty of youth. The veterans on the team are all efficient, unselfish, and willing to do what it takes to improve the team. So what has been the issue so far this season?

Excuses/Reasons

The most frustrating reaction for someone who is trying to be logical is one of pure emotion. At the beginning of the season, it was announced that Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Livers, and Monte Morris would be out for at least three to four weeks. At the time, everyone acknowledged that things would be rough and that the team would struggle. 

One month later, Livers has played 48 minutes. Bogdanovic has yet to return (maybe this week) and Morris had a setback that could keep him out closer to Valentine’s Day. Somehow, facing the exact struggles that the fans said they expected has come as a surprise to many. Removing three solid floor spacers and that take care of the basketball has led to a team ranking 21st in 3-point percentage and 29th in turnovers. 

This, obviously is not Weaver’s fault. Nor is it on him that Alec Burks and Joe Harris have combined to miss 15 games through 16 games. Duren and Ivey have missed 11 combined. Everyone deals with injuries, but for a young team not considered by many to be deep this is not an excuse. It is a reason. 

Troy’s Starting Point

It feels silly to have to reference this four years in, but when fans compare the state of the rebuild to their contemporaries there is an important context that far too often gets forgotten: the starting point. 

Orlando was able to fast-track their rebuild by turning Nikola Vucevic into Wendell Carter Jr. and two future lottery picks. Oklahoma City and Houston turned multiple former All-NBA players into bounties of draft picks. Even Indiana was able to swap out one star for a younger, better one. Detroit did not have this luxury. The previous regime waived Reggie Jackson and traded Andre Drummond months before Weaver came to town, netting only a second-round pick in return. 

Blake Griffin was the only “star” that Troy inherited, and he too necessitated a buyout to get out of town. The only “star” trade that Weaver was able to make was one of his own engineering. He believed in Jerami Grant when most of the league thought he overpaid and turned him into drafting Jalen Duren after two mostly positive seasons. 

What Was Actually Available?

Yes, it would have been nice to use the cap space this past offseason to bolster this roster. It has been clearly stated that the core of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren need help to make a push toward the play-in. Even if Bogdanovic, Burks, Livers, Morris, and the rest had been healthy for the entire season this roster was still depending fully on internal development to make that push. So who would have been available to grease the wheels to progression?

The unfortunate truth is likely, not much. Spending for the sake of spending could have led to throwing a max contract at Cam Johnson, or doing what Houston did, despite how much Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks would have stunted the reps for Ivey and Ausar Thompson. Beyond that, the free agent market last summer left plenty to be desired but not much to be had. 

When you see the likes of the Memphis Grizzlies strike out on trades despite offering multiple first-round picks, it is tough to imagine what avenues Weaver failed to explore. Trading a first-round pick remains encumbered by the trade of a protected first for Stewart in 2020. Beyond that, who is the right player to go in for? Zach LaVine? Meh. Could it have made sense to try to overpay for someone like Kyle Kuzma or get in the market for a John Collins? Perhaps, but those opportunities will present themselves again.

So what is actually wrong?

On Court Concerns

Some of this is an on-court concern that you could attempt to blame Troy for, but at the end of the day, it falls on the players. If fans believe that Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, and others are impact players (which fans seem to agree on), then the blame ultimately should fall on them for some of the issues. 

It made sense for Monty Williams to make Jaden Ivey break bad habits to earn his place on the court. Accountability while learning is what real organizations do. However, that also comes with growing pains. 

Fans would ask, “Is the defense improved enough with Killian Hayes starting over Jaden Ivey” as if the single-game results were the most important thing. Bringing in a coach on a record-breaking contract for six seasons is about the long haul, not the first month on the job. Given that the young players are showing signs of improvement already while learning a new scheme is that evidence. 

There are other rotation questions that many will ask, sure they know better than the career coach. Such is life for a franchise in the midst of its third 11-plus-game losing streak in 2023. But the process is still understandable on the whole.

Is Troy blameless? No, no one in the league does a perfect job and there have been missteps. Making the move for James Wiseman was a gamble, and it did not pay off. There are still some fit questions surrounding the young core of this roster. However, many believe that you take the best available player when you had been this bad and figure the fit out as you go along.

Where We Stand Today

Personally, there is no real rush, despite the fan base’s outcry. It is preferable for Troy Weaver to not rush into a trade or signing just for minimal short-term gains. If the right move presents itself, absolutely. Maximizing Cade Cunningham, specifically, is the most important task that has faced this franchise in 15 years. 

So far, Weaver has done well. He has done very well with the draft. Signing Monty Williams was a coup at the time and so far, there is noticeable progress from the core young players despite the lack of wins. 

Rebuilds take time. Most fanbases are not built for it. Even worse for Detroit, the restoration under Weaver comes after a decade of incompetence and mediocrity. Given that, fans are ready for something different, namely, winning. Weaver is on track to that, even if that includes at least one more top lottery selection. He has had mixed luck with the lottery. Landing the top pick in a draft with a player like Cade Cunningham, however, supersedes plenty of other factors. 

Would things look different if, instead of sliding to fifth in consecutive drafts with top odds, Detroit was sitting with someone like Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero or Victor Wembanyama, or Brandon Miller? Sure. Would fans be able to hold onto a vision more fully formed had something completely out of the control of their general manager bounded differently? Indeed. 

Twitter is for overreactions and those will not be going anywhere. With any luck, neither will Troy Weaver. His vision makes sense if you can stop the Twitter fingers to think.

The post Troy Weaver: Is This Working? appeared first on Swish Theory.

Marcus Sasser, the reigning Jerry West Award winner and a consensus All-American, is another in a long line of family ties to the game. His father, Marcus Sr., was a former collegiate player. His uncles Jeryl and Jason had stints in the NBA, the latter coaching Marcus Jr. during high school in Red Oak, Texas. His great-grandfather, John Barber, made an NBA cameo in 1957 with the St. Louis Hawks, playing under coaching legend Red Holzman.

You could say Marcus was born for this, but that would take away from the countless hours of work he has put into solidifying his greatness within the game. After being selected 25th overall by the Detroit Pistons in the 2023 Draft, Marcus finds himself on the cusp of making his family name stand out more than ever.

Offensive Overview

Through 16 games off the bench, Sasser is averaging 16.4 points and 5.2 assists per 75 possessions while getting up 6.6 threes per 75 to boot. With Detroit searching desperately for backcourt offensive production from players not named Cade Cunningham, Sasser has been a revelation.

It certainly shows on the tape that Sasser is more than just a perimeter specialist and refuses to be pigeonholed into one role. His shot chart on Cleaning The Glass backs it up:

His shot distribution reminds me of a thermal map in “Aliens” where Corporal Hicks realizes he is about to be swamped by a set of xenomorphs.

While there are a lot of strengths in his game beyond the shot diversity, there are some definite shortcomings we will explore as well.

Comprehensive 3-Point Shooting

Now here’s a guy who can let it fly.

Currently, Sasser is sitting on a 40% mark on catch-and-shoots, which has been a hallmark of his game through the Houston days. He shows exceptional confidence in his shot, especially from deep range.

There are occasional instances where his mechanics break down off movement or with extra momentum behind the shot, but he is surprisingly consistent off the bounce in how he sets his feet. Notice the placement of his right foot in this shot:

But, overall, Sasser shows a lot of technical proficiency in his shot to accentuate a lightning-quick release.

Sasser has also shown a strong sense of passing and relocating to outwork the defense and get more catch-and-shoot attempts:

What stands out are the shots he can take and make off the dribble, where he’s at 45%. The film shows a solid, but starkly limited, bag of movement shots.

Like most right-handed shooters, Sasser is most comfortable taking movement shots to his left:

The main issue I have with Sasser’s movement 3-point shooting is the lack of confidence in his shot going to the right. This is typically more difficult to master, so it’s not a major slight. But it’s something to keep an eye on as Sasser tries to expand the tree of his potential shots off the perimeter.

I love seeing how Monty Williams integrates Marcus’ shooting and size into sets. It opens up a lot of interesting looks for the offense that other shooters cannot generate:

Wiseman pins in for Sasser (hardly setting a screen in the process) to open up what looks like a Spain pick-and-roll look, designed to confuse Jonathan Kuminga on the switch. But instead, Sasser ghosts the screen going to Killian Hayes‘ right, opening up a clean catch-and-shoot look on the wing. Marcus’ desire to hustle and execute these looks makes him a fascinating offensive piece to accentuate the other creators on the team.

Sasser’s ability to take the tough perimeter shots (over 85% of threes coming above the break) opens up a lot for his teammates. Detroit has arguably the worst perimeter spacing in the league, but Marcus is a part of the solution, not the problem.

It also serves to open up a second level of prolific scoring.

Budding Intermediate Game

Far and away, this was the most impressive thing about Sasser’s offensive game to me.

First and foremost, let’s look at how the perimeter shooting opens up midrange counters off closeout attacks.

This is a nice bit of awareness by Sasser to see LaVine sinking to help at the nail, then quickly attacking his closeout to get back to the middle and hit the pull-up two.

Sasser likes getting into his floater when attacking closeouts, capable of finishing from different angles and speeds.

The deep range he can pull off on the floater is particularly impressive:

I’m not sure how many players can consistently pull off 18-foot floaters, but it’s surely a short list.

The midrange shot and floater is what Sasser wants to get to when running pick-and-rolls or handoffs. He can use that screen to get the shots he wants over drop coverage. It’s a nice benefit when the shot you want to get to is the shot the defense wants to concede.

Sasser currently takes 22% of his total shots in the long midrange, a 94th percentile mark amongst point guards. To boot, he’s canning 55% of those looks so far. The numbers back up the film: Marcus Sasser is quietly an elite long-two creator.

Yet the problems begin to show once we get to the third level of scoring.

Rim Struggles

Going from the long twos to the short (between 4 and 14 feet), problems immediately begin to emerge. The frequency immediately drops off a cliff; that 94th percentile long two mark drops to the 25th percentile on shorter twos. Unsurprisingly, the ability to convert those shots drops as well. He’s converting 44% in that range, an 11% drop from the long twos.

A lot of this has to do with Sasser’s ability (or lack thereof) to get high up on his jumps and draw contact. Paint defenders are generally not threatened by his rim pressure and Sasser is often scared to get on there. It sticks out on the tape.

Out of fear for Andre Drummond rotating over in the above clip, he doesn’t take a direct path to the rim and opens up more angles for the much larger DeMar DeRozan to get the block in trail. Marcus needs to be definitive about taking the proper angles instead of playing scared around the rim.

In terms of the actual rim attempts, Sasser’s frequency is genuinely concerning. Team context is important here; the paint stays clogged against Detroit. Yet many of his teammates have it figured despite this. Jaden Ivey, an absolute blur of an athlete, has managed a 98th percentile rim frequency. Cade Cunningham, not the most fleet of foot, has posted middling frequencies. Killian Hayes, who has much less burst than Sasser, is only slightly below Sasser’s 11% rim frequency mark, a 9th percentile mark amongst point guards.

It’s worth pointing out here that Sasser has yet to have an assisted look at the rim this season. If he wants to get layups or dunks, he’s going to have to do the work himself. Cutting or slashing into a horrifically clogged paint is not going to produce the results he needs.

I don’t want to dwell on the negatives here. That’s not my style or what I want to accomplish here. Instead, we can look at the good possessions that have come out of his limited volume to see what can be expanded on.

The primary asset that Sasser possesses around the rim is coordination and patience. When he has leverage and time to think, Marcus uses fakes to throw defenders off and generate simpler looks for himself, especially out of pick-and-roll.

The threat of his pull-up going left, as we covered earlier, forces Josh Okogie to hesitate an extra beat. Sasser explodes into that gap and uses the pump fake to press his advantage, getting 3 defenders in the air at once to turn a highly contested shot into layup lines.

I found myself impressed by how Sasser finds funky angles to get off his rim attempts, often confusing rim protectors. He’s also quite good at manipulating his defenders off screens. Both of those tools are on display below:

Shaedon Sharpe is trying to wall off the middle and preempt the screen all at once to force Sasser left, and eventually, Marvin Bagley III re-screens to oblige the defense. Sasser immediately goes middle again by snaking the PNR to pressure DeAndre Ayton’s drop. The crafty scoop finish gets up before Ayton can react, and he’s got the touch with his right to get it in off the glass.

Not only does Sasser show some decent pick-and-roll craft to get to the rim, but he profiles as a solid mismatch attacker to boot. Some off-ball points like Marcus don’t even have the kind of speed or dribble skills to get beyond a mismatched big, but he has shown the chops for it.

Again, Marcus is showing off his ability to finish high off the glass without having to slow his momentum. That’s going to be crucial for his rim-finishing potential as he learns to maximize his limited athletic tools and frame.

Even with the positive flashes, paint touches and overall rim finishing remain a concern, which ties directly into our last offensive category.

Playmaking Concerns

Sasser is listed as a point guard but doesn’t quite play like one. His assist percentage currently sits at 19.1%, a 9th percentile mark from point guards. Much of this comes from the lack of ability to collapse a defense and put opponents in rotation. This opens up the highest value possible assists.

There are still good instances of Sasser leveraging his solid floor reading when he does manage to collapse the defense:

Drew Eubanks tries to play high on the level of the screen and gets destroyed, with Jordan Goodwin well behind the play. Josh Okogie and Yuta Watanabe stay home in the corners as Kevin Durant sinks from the wing, so there’s only one play to make. Sasser tosses a beautiful wrap pass over his head to Ausar Thompson at the top of the key for an open three. That’s some quality floor reading from a rookie guard.

Marcus is quite good at finding where the help is coming from, as he does on this double drag set:

This is all about manipulating DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond in tandem. Kevin Knox ghosts the first screen of the double drag and heads to the empty wing, but DeRozan stays in the action knowing he has to cover Drummond’s back side with James Wiseman screening and rolling. Drummond must stay between Sasser’s drive and Wiseman’s roll to deny the easier shot, forcing DeRozan’s hand. A kick to the far wing by Sasser finds the open shooter.

We have the flashes of complex playmaking by Marcus. For now, he’s usually relegated to making the simpler reads until his paint touches can increase. It’s a good thing he excels at these.

Both of these plays are repeatable ways for Sasser to find teammates in the dunker spots. Driving a closeout against an unsettled defense will always create opportunities, and a regular drive against subpar perimeter defenders will force the defense to rotate and open windows for nice layoff passes. The placement and timing in both of these clips are sublime, showing my general thought on Sasser’s playmaking: it’s not making the reads or executing on the windows that is the issue, it’s the leverage necessary to open those windows in the first place.

There are going to be instances where Sasser doesn’t even need a paint touch to make the right reads. In this instance, Sasser makes a simple read against nail help to work an open shot for a teammate:

Jaime Jaquez Jr., the real JJJ, attacks at the nail to deny the late shot clock drive. Alec Burks sees this coming on the wing and relocates to make an easier pass for Sasser. Again, more simple and repeatable actions for Marcus that can use his playmaking capabilities.

Still, we are left wanting, which brings us to the most important section.

Growth Areas

As Sasser’s reputation on scouting reports as a shooter begins to grow, he will have the chance to improve his rim pressure and must seize it.

It’s going to be difficult to keep up two-level scoring. On a team starved for rim pressure, defenses can play more aggressive coverages on Sasser’s on-ball actions and force him to beat them downhill. Even if that third level never reaches the heights of the other two, it needs to be in the back of the defenders’ minds once he takes a dribble.

And, as previously discussed, this will open up a new tree of playmaking options that he has shown he can capitalize on. He does not want for athleticism or floor reading ability. It is simply a question of using paint touches as a force multiplier for the already elite parts of his offensive game.

As an aside, I’d also like to see him going right more often on his movement threes. He’s capable of some Klay Thompson-esque curl screen/double-drag sets turning into movement shots. And with Detroit utterly floundering as a team Sasser has all the reason and opportunity he needs to experiment with new looks.

Defensive Overview

Unlike the first two players I have covered in this series (Peyton Watson, Aaron Nesmith) and a third covered by our own Lucas Kaplan (Jalen Johnson), Marcus Sasser is not a burgeoning defensive event creator. He’s good at stealing the ball (62nd percentile for point guards) but often tries too hard for them, which we will dig into soon. At 6’2″, blocks aren’t really on the table, especially without top-tier vertical athleticism. He’s posting a 0.2% block rate which sits him in the 12th percentile for point guards.

Old football commentators would probably describe Sasser as a “lunch pail guy” on the defensive end. He shows up, he does his job, he goes home. One of the more electric guard defenders in an extremely aggressive Houston Cougars system, this is no surprise. But there are some weak spots here I want to explore.

Perimeter Stopping Flashes

I’ll get this out of the way early – perimeter-stopping possessions like the ones you will see are rarely so clean. Only 3.2% of Sasser’s defensive possessions have come in true isolation. Granted, some of that is because players rarely want to attack him mano a mano. That doesn’t mean we are unable to learn anything from these chances.

Deny middle, deny middle, deny middle. Those are the first three rules of isolation containment. However, if the player you are guarding is the best of the best like Steph Curry, do your best to force him to pick up the drive and navigate him into the help. Sasser checks all of those boxes.

There are definite areas where Sasser is lacking. Specifically in a game against Philadelphia, those problems were plain for all to see while attempting to contain human roadrunner Tyrese Maxey.

Meep meep:

Later in the game, he overplays himself trying to deny the drive and ends up conceding a step-back three going to Maxey’s left.

Containing the elites of the league is a big ask for a rookie guard. However, he’ll have to clean up his footwork and hip movement to better contain the players that Detroit needs him to handle.

A bright spot of his 1v1 defense comes in the post. With the aforementioned height concerns teams are going to try hard to mismatch him on the blocks. That was especially evident against the Warriors, who have a lot of strong and long wings that like to get in the post and go to their right. Sasser was having none of that.

Getting low and strong to create leverage, anticipating the bumps and meeting them with the right amount of force, using verticality to contest shots. That’s a great bag of tools for a below-average guard in terms of height to have when teams try to exploit him.

Now, we get into the meat of his defense.

Screen Neglection

Screen navigation was one of the elite sells on Sasser coming out of college. In fact, our own Neema Djavadzadeh had that listed as a primary defensive strength in his pre-draft scouting report for Swish Theory.

Yet that strength has yet to translate in the league so far. Some of this is personnel, both teammates and coaches. Detroit employs a bevy of coverage-limited bigs that cannot play to the level of the screen and place a heavy burden on the guards for elite screen navigation. Adding kerosene to the fire, Detroit’s primary defensive assistant, Dan Burke, has taken a personal leave of absence from the team. It goes without saying that whatever Burke is dealing with takes priority over basketball, but that doesn’t lessen the impact that their general disorganization on that end has on a player like Sasser.

I found myself shocked by how often Sasser goes underneath the screen on pick-and-roll. This is part strategy because going over to deny the shot pushes the ballhandler into the paint against drop bigs, which in theory would be a boon for the defense. That’s really not the case with their big man room, unfortunately, so Sasser is forced under quite often to protect his bigs.

That need to go under has left Detroit’s defense exposed on the perimeter with great frequency.

This isn’t a skill concern for me with Sasser – if the scheme dictates to go under and the team gets burned by that, he’s simply following orders and is not responsible for the results.

What concerns me is the general technique he shows on screens relative to his college display of talent in this area.

He’s not anticipating the screens well and fails to take decisive angles that get him into favorable trail positions. This could be a case of having new teammates and struggling with communication. It takes two to tango when it comes to guard screen navigation on pick-and-roll actions. The certainty that comes from playing with his former Houston teammates vs. his current Detroit ones cannot be discounted here.

The perimeter defense bleeds over into our next category, which is another case of pre-draft strength turning into an early weakness.

Throwing Hands

Whether in help or on the ball, Sasser is one of the most hands-on perimeter defenders you will find.

It tends to get him in a lot of trouble. He gambles early and often, and the payoff isn’t always there.

The positive is that it seems as if the majority of these gambles do pay off. It’s an overall credit to Sasser’s awareness and decision-making that this tendency doesn’t get him burned.

This is a huge asset for Sasser when playing trail defense, which he does often as a result of their scheme and his early screen navigation issues.

Those quick hands are a boon for his nail help when playing off shooters to contain drives and pick-and-rolls.

You’ve probably noticed that Sasser’s steals generate a lot of immediate transition chances. He is wrangling the high-value chances and turning them into points for his teammates at the other end. The value of that cannot be overstated.

However, there are other issues off the ball worth mentioning before we wrap up here.

Late Closeouts

This is a minor concern, but one worth noting.

I’ve seen a few instances of Marcus missing X-outs on the perimeter – in general, with defenses switching and rotating aggressively off the ball, you cannot be late to recognize these scenarios.

Missing a switch is one thing. Failing to close out because of a lack of effort is another, which is the case here against Garrison Mathews:

In general, I thought Sasser was pretty solid in terms of closing out, but we are on the chase for perfection here.

With that in mind, let’s look at the defensive room for improvement.

Growth Areas

First and foremost is the screen navigation. This really needs to be better – scheme aside, anticipation and ability to get skinny and move around the screen must improve.

Second, he has to learn to be less reliant on his hands to do the work defensively. He has strength and long arms (+5 wingspan) that can do a lot of the difficult parts. Let your feet and body do the work, and reserve the swipes for when the opportunities present themselves.

Lastly, I’d like to see more from Marcus off the ball defensively. The nail help he offers has been strong, but the closeouts need to go up a tick in effort. He’s also capable of better rotations on the whole to affect shots.

So, where do we go from here?

Future Outlook

With the personnel Detroit boasts on the perimeter, Sasser is an important gap filler on both ends of the floor – provided he can capitalize on his upside.

Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are paint-pressuring/inside-the-arc scoring options and playmakers who need credible spacers and relocators to take extra help off their plates. The advantages they create also require guys who can make plays on the second side by attacking closeouts, driving and hitting cutters, or simply pulling up from midrange against an unsettled defense. Marcus Sasser can be that guy.

On the defensive end, Detroit badly needs a primary guard-stopping option to make Cade/Ivey viable on the floor. Ausar Thompson is no slouch in this respect but is better utilized defending bigger wings. If someone can take primary guard assignments off his plate, it also puts him in a better spot to get in the paint and showcase his ridiculous defensive event creation. Once again on paper, Sasser is an ideal complementary fit.

All of this falls apart to some degree if the screen navigation remains subpar on the defensive end. Ditto for the paint touches on the offensive end. If he turns into a quality 3 and some D point guard, that’s not a bad outcome for Detroit, especially with the immediacy of the return on investment they have seen.

That being said, I believe Sasser is capable of much more. This could be the non-star guard option Detroit needs to go from a “fun group of talent” to producing actual results. And while they figure out the vision for this franchise, Sasser gets to explore what heights he can truly reach.

The post Finding a Role: Marcus Sasser appeared first on Swish Theory.

I wanted to look at how the four prospects associated most with Detroit fit alongside the current roster. Those would be Houston forward Jarace Walker, UCF forward Taylor Hendricks, Overtime Elite forward Ausar Thompson, and Villanova forward Cam Whitmore. For the purposes of this exercise, the roster heading into the draft and free agency is as follows:

Guards: Cade Cunningham / Jaden Ivey / Alec Burks / Killian Hayes

Wings: Bojan Bogdanovic / Isaiah Livers

Bigs: Jalen Duren / Isaiah Stewart / Marvin Bagley III / James Wiseman 

Potential Departures: RJ Hampton, Eugene Omoruyi, Hamidou Diallo, Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, Buddy Boeheim, Jared Rhoden

Obviously, wing is the position of need and the only one that the team has yet to address in the draft process since Troy Weaver has taken over. Three of the four prospects they are rumored to be interested in would fit. 

So, naturally, we will start on the other end. This will work as me asking Charlie about what each prospect brings to the team and then I will assess further from the on-court product we have seen over the last few seasons. 

Jarace Walker

The DMV native brings a lot of what Detroit basketball has always been about. He is a defensive force and a solid playmaker. As the team looks to compete for the play-in this season, improving on the defensive end is imperative. For everything Pistons fans have loved about Isaiah Stewart, Walker is likely a better version of that. However, therein lies the fit questions.

Question: Charlie, Walker is a dog. He would fit in any era of this franchise, but the current fit is questionable. Is there a world where he can play on the wing or alongside two of the three of Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, and/or James Wiseman?

Answer: I think Detroit could view Jarace Walker as a missing puzzle piece for multiple reasons. Jalen Duren is the long-term starter at the 5 and plays some excellent defense in addition to controlling the glass. But he cannot shoulder the load and develop at the same time. The two would benefit each other greatly, switching between tough assignments and knowing they have extra protection when put into offensive actions. 

I think he also brings a lot of order to the roster, and the vision of this team. Troy Weaver loves bigs, and is willing to sacrifice spacing for rebounding, defense, and transition prowess. Jarace profiles as an immediate starter, and gives them a chance to see what a Stewart/Wiseman frontcourt looks like for the bench. They can mix-and-match with this group as needed, bringing the flexibility Monty Williams would love to have with a young roster.

I don’t really think Jarace can do enough offensively to be a 3 next to two of those others, unfortunately. You can overcome two non-shooting bigs with effective cutting, screening, and a large offensive rebounding margin, but three really puts clamps on the offensive playmakers. He certainly can fit defensively if the offensive skills come around, but I wouldn’t be counting on it.

This is a pretty valid point in Walker’s favor that I had not previously considered. Much of the previous iteration of this roster was perpetuated on a two-big system that would be available both in the starting rotation and the bench. Walker bringing a better version of the Stewart game means that not only can they regularly run two bigs, but the system will remain unchanged. 

Defensive versatility would be the calling card here and would necessitate looking for shooting elsewhere, likely in free agency. Moving on from Marvin Bagley would become an increasing likelihood given that he would be a fifth big. 

Taylor Hendricks

The quintessential 3-and-D prospect, Taylor Hendricks feels like the perfect fit for what this team is looking to add. Detroit finished in the bottom third of 3-point shooting percentage and among the worst defensive teams in the league. Can Hendricks really fill these needs?

Question: Hendricks feels like the ideal fit for this team. Do you see it that way? Is taking him at five too much of a reach? Bonus question, if they were to trade back to take him while picking up a second first-round pick, who do you think they should look at?

Answer: I do think he is a great fit, but the value is dubious. It’s highly unlikely the Pistons are not in a position to take one (or both) of the Thompson twins. Both fit a similar mold to Hendricks but with much more creation upside. Jarace Walker will be available unless there is a massive surprise. He brings a more refined offensive skillset with similarly bankable defensive tools. It’s hard to envision a world where Hendricks is the best fit AND value at 5.

But a trade back brings interesting questions. If a team like Utah is hell-bent on moving up to 5 and willing to trade one of their extra firsts, I’d jump on the chance. This class is deep, and even if Hendricks doesn’t make it to the trade-back spot, strong options will be available. Detroit should take the upside shot with the top 10 pick and find another wing later on. This is where this class is deepest. If they can walk away with Hendricks and Leonard Miller or GG Jackson, their wing group could be set.

This is the dream trade-back scenario and needed to be included in the considerations. There are rumors aplenty regarding the likes of Utah, Oklahoma City, and even Indiana packaging picks to move up and Weaver has never been shy to make a draft-day trade.

There are obviously plenty of young players on the roster, but again they have not invested these project picks in the wing. Doing that with two bites of the apple in a draft with wing depth would be the perfect cap to Detroit’s four years of draft restoration under Troy Weaver before turning their eyes to play-in contention. 

Ausar Thompson

Swinging more for the fences, Ausar Thompson has been a riser in the time since the Overtime Elite season has ended. For much of the predraft process, his twin brother Amen was looked at as the clearly better prospect. While he may still go higher in the draft, some are starting to come around to Ausar potentially being the better Thompson. Regardless, he fits better positionally in Detroit and would help cement them as the most athletic young core in the league. 

Question: Can Ausar Thompson play alongside two guards and be more of an ancillary playmaker while still being effective? Does this all depend on the shot actually developing?

Answer: Yes, yes, and no. Ausar’s outstanding defense and work ethic make me believe he can fit any backcourt. He’s great at running in transition and shows signs of knowing when to cut and go baseline on offense. He can play make in all fashions: off extended PNR or isolation reps, drives off closeouts, or finding quick swing passes or hitting cutters off the catch. The shot can certainly develop. But his high level of talent with and without the ball in his hands will keep the wheels greased offensively. And with the kind of defensive potential he brings, it makes for a great weapon next to Cunningham and Ivey.

For me personally, this would be the pick if the Pistons remain at five. The upside is sky-high. If you are going to take a prospect without shooting on the wing they have to bring a number of other things to the table. Ausar Thompson brings plenty to the table. 

Work ethic has been a key personality trait for the Pistons regime and Thompson would fit right in. He would bring additional playmaking and defense to a team in need of juicing up both. Imagining him running in transition with Cunningham and Ivey is tantalizing. 

Cam Whitmore

For most Detroit fans, this is the ideal choice once we fell to fifth in the draft. While his season at Villanova was less than had been hoped for, Cam Whitmore has sky-high potential. His decision-making needs work, to say the least, but this roster could be what unlocks him.

Question: Outside of Wembanyama, many within the fanbase have suggested that Cam Whitmore is the best fit for this roster. Do you see him as having star potential, or is there something that is likely to hold him back from that?

Answer: I think Cam has a case for a strong fit, but not for good reasons. I’m very low on the kind of creation burden he can hold long-term. So in this sense, he fits very well with a Cade/Ivey starting unit. The shooting is fine and he has some midrange potential. But he has side-to-side athleticism and handle concerns. I think that will ultimately limit his ability to impact the offense at the rim outside of cuts. 

The overall work ethic is a concern for me, not only for the offensive development but his entire defensive game. He’s not quick enough to defend up on slimmer wings or most guards. He mostly profiles as a rotating 4 on defense. It’s the lowest-end proposition for a defensive outcome unless you are elite like a Jaren Jackson Jr. Cam doesn’t have the feel or functional athleticism to get there in my eyes.

If you had asked me two weeks ago where Detroit went, it would have been Cam if he was still on the board. I no longer believe that to be the case, and Charlie really outlined why. As much as the personality fit for the first three guys was clean, Whitmore feels the opposite.

Given how often both Weaver and Monty Williams mentioned not only prioritizing talent but work ethic and culture, Whitmore feels like the kind of guy that they stay away from. That is not to say he will not be a success in this league. I just doubt it will be in the Motor City.

The post Detroit Pistons Draft Day Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

At Swish Theory we don’t like to be limited by the actual, as studying the potential is a way to a deeper understanding of the game, as well.

We asked Swish Theory contributors to represent the nine teams with best chance (all 4.5%+) to land the French 19-year-old and make the case that they are the team who deserves him, not just due to lottery odds but due to team infrastructure and Victor’s own interests.

Swish Admin and Editorial Teams then decided who answered best for each of the four questions. And finally, as there are many more prizes than Vic for a rebuilding team in this draft, who each team’s favorite fit among top draft prospects who are not named Wembanyama.

Who do you think made the best case?

Question 1:

What’s your team’s plan for fitting Victor Wembanyama into your basketball roster on day one?

Detroit (Josh A.): 

The Detroit Pistons currently have one of the strongest young cores in all of basketball with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren. Adding Victor Wembanyama to this core would likely make it the strongest in the NBA, as the overall blend of skill sets would have the opportunity to create an elite big four assuming all goes right for the team. Acquiring Wembanyama to be one of two defensive anchors alongside Duren, along with being the top scoring option on offense, sets the team up very well for the future. All four pieces of this hypothetical big four mesh very well together, which is why I believe that this core would contend for championships in the mid to late 2020s if they all stay together.

Wembanyama will step into the NBA with the largest catch radius in the sport, which makes him a direct complement to Cade Cunningham’s passing skill set. Cunningham loves throwing lob passes to his centers, which is why he had so much success with Marvin Bagley at the end of his rookie season. Giving Cunningham the player with the largest lob catch radius in the league would create an unstoppable alley-oop combination, which would be a constant and stable part of the team’s offense. This would likely lead to teams providings lots of weak side help on Wembanyama’s rolls to the basket, where Cunningham can spray skip passes to Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey in the weakside corner and wing. These two would be able to strongly exploit these 2v1 situations, making Detroit one of the more potent offenses in the NBA from the jump.

Victor also pairs very well with Jalen Duren on defense, as the two bigs can run versatile coverages together. One can serve as the primary PNR defender while the other roams around near the basket, and I foresee Victor being the roamer in their early years together. Wembanyama frequently over-fixates on the ball-handler in pick and roll situations, which leads to open roll men more often than you would like. He is able to get away with this now due to his insane combination of length and fluidity, though this is a long term issue that Wembanyama will likely be able to fix. Once he perfects his positioning, Duren and Wembanyama can run many valuable pick and roll coverages, which would bring even more unpredictability to the team’s defense. The rim protection with the two monster shot blockers would be something to behold, and they would likely anchor elite defenses in the future due to the overall value of rim protection and scheme versatility. 

Houston (Neema):

While we are young in Houston, we are in a pivotal time in the franchise. With the hiring of Ime Udoka, as well as having upwards of $45m in cap space, there are multiple routes to success we can have this offseason, with the addition of our new superstar draft pick. The goal is to get past our youth, and build a team sustainable for success, that also amplifies the strengths of our players. 

Being able to slot Victor into our starting lineup allows for some incredible versatility. Having a big-to-big game between Victor and Alperen Sengun, arguably one of the best young centers in the league, opens up plenty for guards like Jalen Green to create on the perimeter and pressure the paint. Playing Victor at the 4, we can have him attack with Alperen playing the high post, and defensively, Victor covers the aerial space that Sengun struggles to protect. Having shooting wings like Jabari Smith, or fastbreak threats like KJ Martin and Tari Eason, Victor can play in a versatile, quick, and dynamic offense that spaces the floor and attacks open spaces. The growth of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun will only help Victor, as they’ll be able to create space for him, and help him be effective on the offensive end without expending too much energy, as his defense, along with the presence of Smith and Eason, will be the anchor for our team.

What is up in the air at the moment is how to consolidate, and who to target in free agency. With the addition of Victor, many free agents may see Houston, with a new culture, budding superstars, and a coach that gets the most out of his players, as a premier landing spot. With contracts like Kevin Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate’s, as well as a healthy amount of draft picks, we can make a trade to bring in another premier piece that amplifies Victor. Being able to get the most out of Victor on the court, while lessening his load to maintain his conditioning is our goal, and we have the pieces and flexibility to make it happen in Houston. 

Spurs (Tyler): 

In the case of San Antonio, there should be very little “fitting in” required. The organization is incredibly familiar with ingratiating future Hall of Fame big men into their roster and creating a plan for steady, healthy development. As reported by LJ Ellis of SpursTalk, the team has already begun preparing for the possibility of winning the lottery (https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-preparing-for-victor-wembanyama/).

The on-court plan begins with playing Victor strictly at the four to begin his career. There is no value in rushing minutes at the five before he is physically and mentally ready to helm that task. The presence of Zach Collins, Charles Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili provide three distinct styles of front court partners who can take on more physical assignments. 

The perimeter talent on the team in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones are all incredibly complementary with essentially no avenue towards taking touches away from Victor. With over $30mm in cap room this off-season, there will be ample opportunity to add veteran guard play and wing defenders. 

This team is flush with scalable, youthful talent, cap space, and the greatest coach in the history of the sport. If you are thinking purely about basketball context, San Antonio is a better fit than meets the eye. There is competent, complementary talent at each position but are lacking a star at the center of their universe. If you want to hit the ground running, while still being the undisputed #1 scoring option, San Antonio is the place to be. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We have one of the most promising passers in the league in LaMelo Ball which makes your life a lot easier on that end. There isn’t anyone in the league who is matching your catch-radius, and LaMelo will really take advantage of this. You could become the most electrifying duo in the league pretty quickly. It’s more fitting the roster around Victor, not the other way around, and we have both major financial flexibility to act on the free agent market and a young core to complement him. Other than that, we have a variety of frontcourt options to put next to you in PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Kai Jones, or JT Thor to complement your skillset as best as possible on both ends.  

You can look at our current mismatch of talent as inconsistent, but I’d say it has Wemby-sized needs, with a versatile big defender and shotmaker as giving us just enough scheme flexibility to let Lamelo be Lamelo, with bit players all around in support. Just imagine a Lamelo/Victor pick and roll – what else do you need? Such an action would be unstoppable year 1, especially given Victor’s increased physicality in the interior. Lamelo can pinpoint Wembanyama’s unreal catch radius at creatively timed moments, and Vic can learn how to find Lamelo in his spots as well.

Blazers (Uri):

Offensively, we don’t see the need to start things slowly. We want to win and Victor’s already proven that he can be the initiator in a high-level offense at Mets 92. Hit the ground running, inverted PnRs with our electric guards (including, Damian f****** Lillard), inducing mismatches on the weak side to initiate a big-big two-man game on the inside. Vic would enhance Jusuf Nurkic’s strengths as a passer and post player while mitigating some of his weaknesses defensively. 

Off the ball, Lillard and Simons demand so much attention that running simple concepts will create a lot of space for Wemby to operate. And Vic’s already demonstrated comfort with more complex ball screen actions in France, so even if the decision-making off the short roll needs improvement, the floor for success is already established in Portland. For as much as other lottery teams have players that can be good in the future, not one of the other teams has the players with the same kind of gravity that ours do.

And on the defensive end, we might have even more fun than on offense. Chauncey is one of the most creative defensive head coaches in the NBA, all he needs is the personnel to apply his concepts. Though the offensive stuff goes viral, it’s the defense that would make things click here in Portland. We see him as a 4 early in his career next to Nurk. The weak side big, swooping in to erase shots and deter would be drivers, roving around and letting his length and instincts take over. 

Magic (RK):

Defining a role to unleash what Victor Wembanyama does best now with the freedom to develop weaknesses into strengths long-term is the primary goal. Asking Victor to impact the game immediately in three ways: Instinctual help-side rim-protection; Unreachable rim-rolling lob threat; Unblockable relocating deep range shooter. Generating clean catch-and-shoot threes is an easy offensive target to hit for such a skilled shooter with as versatile a shot profile as Wembanyama in year one. From standstill to motion threes, Victor has flashed shooting skill in every situation; the team that drafts him should test the limits of his incredible shooting ability. Pick-and-pops, Spain/Ram P&R, Stagger and Elevator Screens are sets that involve Wembanyama as the movement shooter in the action to force the defense into an impossible choice, effective counter options to the traditional pick-and-rolls and handoff sets where Victor rolls to the rim with higher vertical reach on lob threats than anyone else has ever imagined. In post-ups, the footwork, soft touch, and tough shot-making skills are already worth exploring against mismatches and sharpening the sword until every opponent becomes a mismatch.

Victor Wembanyama enters the league as one of most impactful rim-protectors and tough shot-makers the sport of basketball has ever seen. Due to his rare combination of handles, touch, and instinctual feel for the game at his height, Wembanyama’s floor is a league-ready floor-stretching rim-protector. Combining these innate traits to further develop all-around ball skills gives him one of the highest ranges of realistic potential developmental paths any prospect can hope for as an unguardable versatile on-ball scoring engine; a rim-sealing paint-protecting defensive anchor; a one-man wrecking crew on both ends. With Victor’s tough shot-making, deep shooting range, and natural rim-protection instincts being a safe bet to translate to every level of basketball, Rookie Wembanyama’s impact could range anywhere between a long-range sniper defensive anchor like Jaren Jackson Jr. to a tall shot-blocking tough shot-maker in the realm of Rookie Durant, only Victor stands five inches taller than both.

Bending defenses by attacking the paint is the best way to create open looks from deep. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz naturally create C&S 3pt opportunities by each averaging 10+ drives per game, making Orlando one of only four teams to feature three players who drive to the rack that often. Among many reasons to draft Vic, adding Wembanyama’s floor-stretching gravity to the frontcourt perfectly balances any spacing clunkyness in the starting lineup; one couldn’t dream up a better stretch-big threat for kickouts off Paolo faceups, Franz Chicago handoffs, and Fultz P&R snake-dribble drives than Wemby’s unoverthrowable shooting pocket. Life on the court can’t get much easier for Victor Wembanyama than playing off the vision, feel, and playmaking of Paolo, Fultz, Franz, and Cole Anthony, with a strong versatile defense already in place between Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac, maybe the most exciting young roster in the league ready to compete for the foreseeable future.

Pacers (Charlie):

Looking around at the teams in position to secure Wemby, you see a lot of unserious rosters and ownership groups. The top four are a mix of bad rosters, owners unwilling to spend, and terrible vibes. The Pacers aren’t historical big spenders, but have a roster that is one elite piece away from making the playoffs.

A 35-win team adding the best prospect in two decades works well for both sides. Myles Turner could provide some nice frontcourt synergy with Wembanyama, with spacing on the offensive side to allow Vic to work freely inside the arc while providing elite rim protection to lessen the overall defensive load. We’ve seen how huge Jarrett Allen has been for Evan Mobley’s development, allowing him to move between both frontcourt spots instead of playing heavy minutes at the 5.

There is also elite young guard creation present. I don’t have to tell you that a Haliburton-Wembanyama two-man game would be special to watch, but they also have Bennedict Mathurin on the rise as a prolific young wing scorer. The need for Vic to be an instant offensive impact is much lessened by the conditions of the roster. Little of the rotation next year is set in stone, but I can imagine free agents will overlook the franchise location and team pedigree for a chance to play with Tyrese Haliburton and Wemby. Overall, I think the Pacers present the best chance for Wembanyama to play winning basketball before his rookie contract is up, while not taking away from his potential development as an all-around dynamo.

Wizards (Joe):

Wes Unseld’s creativity as a play designer makes Washington one of the more intriguing fits for Wemby, even though I’d imagine many don’t want to see him there. The variety of chin and delay sets Unseld has deployed make Wemby an intriguing schematic fit. Him and Porzingis can both space the floor. There may be some small concerns they get in eachothers’ way, but I actually think Porzingis’ general unwillingness to go inside the arc could be very good for Wemby’s development. He’s going to get the majority of reps attacking inside if he lands in Washington.

Defensively, the fit is absolutely incredible. Porzingis and him could dominate with sheer size and instincts on the interior which makes things easier on the guards and wings on the roster. You could be highly experimental with coverages and this is something Unseld has shown a willingness to do. When you mesh Daniel Gafford into this big man rotation too, it’s just an incredibly effective trio on that end with size and high percentage shot types.

Jazz (AJ):

With the style in which Will Hardy coached his first season in Utah, there’s no doubt that Victor Wembanyama would be a near perfect fit on the Jazz. Hardy frequently used lineups with multiple skilled bigs on the floor at once, and was able to get the most out of them. Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award. Kelly Olynyk set a career high in assists while nearly doing the same in points. Heck, even Luka Samanic, a 6’10 former first round pick who had been in and out of the NBA, had the best stretch of his career playing for Utah at the end of the season. When you look at the success of these 3 players at various talent levels, you can only dream about what the 7’4 ultra-skilled Wemby would look like under Will Hardy. 

Playing next to a more traditional Center like Walker Kessler early on would also be a benefit for Victor. As Vic matures and puts on more muscle there will be plenty opportunity for him to play the 5 more down the line, but early on in his career saving him from having to take on matchups against physical bigs like Nikola Jokic or Steven Adams will make his transition to the NBA a lot easier and potentially help him stay on the floor more. 

Question Winner: Detroit Pistons

Honorable mention: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets

Question 2:

How do you plan to evolve Victor’s game over the long-term on your squad? How much will you develop as an on-ball offensive shotmaker/creator vs. his off-ball skills? What’s your ideal use for him on defense?

Detroit (Josh):

When you combine Wembanyama’s generational size and length with his touch and feel for the game, you begin to realize that Wembanyama is capable of things that nobody else on the court is capable of. In order to properly develop him, I would make sure to mix in the on-ball and off-ball reps while getting him involved in many pick and rolls. Familiarizing Wembanyama with the spacing and court dynamics of NBA high post plays will be valuable for his overall development curve, as he should be able to swiftly learn how to get to his spots against the highest level of competition. There may be some growing pains along the way, but Wembanyama’s combination of pull-up touch and ability to draw contact on jumpers should make him fairly productive on these plays from the second he steps foot on the court. Using him on rolls to the basket will also be a productive form of offense from day one due to his gaudy catch radius on lobs.

Wembanyama’s combo of size and pull-up shooting will give him lots of on-ball gravity when he fully figures out scoring at the NBA level, and he should be able to progress as a passer as he sees more high post looks in the league. He could face double teams fairly early in his career, which will be good for his long run passing development. Wembanyama’s height gives him access to passing windows that some players wish they could access, as he should be able to scan the court from above and deliver high velocity passes to open teammates. Finding a balance between his on-ball scoring reps and using his off-ball gravity will be crucial for his development, and I believe that he could easily find this balance on a team like Detroit. The supporting cast around him meshes well with his skillset, as guys like Jalen Duren can lurk around the dunkers spot while Wembanyama operates from the high post, Jaden Ivey can 45 cut from the wings or curl around for downhill dribble hand-off plays, and Cade Cunningham can find angles to receive the ball and quickly move it to an open play finisher.

Houston (Neema):

With how skilled Victor is, there is no telling what route he can take to be successful. He could become a taller Durant, or a more mobile Giannis with good touch. The goal in Houston, is to increase his strength while not having him put on too much weight, to really lean into his defensive ability. His size, foot speed, and ground coverage would make him an elite roamer in a system that needs good paint protection. Having Tari and Jabari guard the strong side wings, Victor will be able to protect and deny the weak side purely on his presence, and also hide the struggles of Jalen Green and potentially James Harden, should he find his way back to Houston. With Sengun also in the paint, Victor’s ability to protect the rim will be needed, and having him help from the weak-side cuts off half the court for the offense.

Offensively, he can do whatever he wants. Victor would come in being one of the best advantage creators on the team, and probably one of the better shooters. Having him play off Sengun would give the Rockets an unstoppable big-to-big game with the new rendition of the Twin Towers (Hakeem and Ralph Sampson), or having him play two-man with Jalen Green forces teams to either allow Jalen to blow past them, or give Victor the space to get the ball up high and finish at the rim. Offensively, the options are endless, and Victor will not be held back, as we want him to blossom into a player that we can rely on on both ends of the court.

Spurs (Tyler):

Vic is a once in a lifetime talent that breaks our typical framework for archetypes and positionality on the basketball court. Is he a center? Is he a guard? Is he a 7’4 Kevin Durant? When the sky’s the limit, the only mistake you can make is aiming too low. There is no better place for Victor to spread his wings and really see what he could become than San Antonio.

Of course there is a desire to hone Vic’s off-ball scoring, easy buckets are a necessity for any star. That experience should happen through simple repetition. Basketball is a team sport, and Vic is one of the most gifted prospects in its history. Learning to best relocate on the perimeter, crash the offensive glass or attack gaps as a cutter will come with time, given you are playing in a team-oriented offense. Thankfully, that is the only way San Antonio knows how to play.

The goal for Vic is not to create some helio-centric star creator that has the ball every possession, nor is it to pair him with one. He has the touch, coordination, dribble package and high release to be the most dominant scorer in NBA history. Defensively, his ceiling as a roaming event creator is nearly just as high. We see little value in forcing him to guard true centers or defend ball screens constantly. Saving his body for the offensive end, and maximizing his help defense impact, will be paramount.  

Maximizing that growth is the goal, and the only way to do that is to throw the kitchen sink. Pin downs, DHO operation, playing out of the mid post, operating as a roll man or as a handler, attacking shorter defenders in isolation. Everything is worth trying, because everything is possible. Prospects like that don’t come along often, and an organization with the pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs will not take that opportunity lightly. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We already have a good core that will benefit from your strengths as a creator. To start off and make it a bit easier for you, we could use you in a two-man game with LaMelo and steadily increase your on-ball creation usage when you are ready for it. But in the long run, we would strongly encourage you to play a similar role like you did with Metropolitans last season because it would enable us to build our offense around you with smart offball players like Biles Mridges, James Bouknight and Terry Rozier. LaMelo is used to playing all kinds of roles, and great players like you and him normally figure stuff out on the fly pretty quickly.  

On defense, we would like you to act as both an anchor and roamer type, depending on lineups. Playing next to Mark Williams, we would like to give you reps as a roamer, for example. Most of the time, we would put you in a lineup, where you are the anchor next to PJ Washington and “Biles Mridges”, to complement you on that end. 

Mets 92 has had success by simply giving you the ball early and letting you figure it out. We want to scratch whatever your ceiling is for on-ball creation as soon as we can your rookie year, with Lamelo getting you the ball in your actions as you each learn how to play off-ball with the other. On talent alone we should make the playoffs each season, and with that cushion to experiment, Victor will develop new post and iso moves he wouldn’t be able to with other squads. We have the flexibility of timelines: the talent to win now, but youth to experiment for the future.

Blazers (Uri):

We want the ball in Wemby’s hands as early as possible. Reps, reps, reps, and more reps as an initiator. For as polished an offensive prospect he is, our main focus is developing him as a playmaker, utilizing his planetary gravity to make others better. By the end of his rookie contract, we can 1.5:1 or even a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. Several calls to one Bill Walton have already been made.

Off-ball, we see Durant. Sharp cuts and off-ball screens leading to decisive play-making opportunities in the midrange and going downhill. Yes, the shooting is of utmost importance, but in the immediate future we want to take advantage of his touch and physical specs by establishing Victor as a dominant interior presence off the switch.

Defensively, it’ll be a lot of clam chowder, maple bacon donuts, and Nong’s Khao Man Gai. Adding weight and slowly adding strength. We want to calibrate physicality and fluidity, adding muscle without detracting from what makes him such a special off-ball athlete. We’ve seen shades of the ability to absorb contact, we just need to add slightly more volume to that frame to maximize his physical gifts.

Magic (RK):

A 7’5” human being who possesses an 8’ wingspan and the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot a basketball on the move; whose shot release looks as unblockable as Durant’s; whose grab-and-go modern point-center powers ideally fill out into a downhill force only emulated by Giannis; whose defensive motor never shuts off, deterring opponents from even thinking of approaching the paint like prime Dwight, Victor Webmanayam is a living testament to the create-a-player scenarios where a mad scientist takes the best traits of basketball legends, mixes them in a lab, and creates a freestylin’ Frankenstein Monstar.

Strength-building and weight management will be vital Wembanyama’s path to success at the NBA level, molding his body’s strengths and weaknesses to keep up with the grind of an NBA schedule. Putting on too much muscle could reduce his graceful mobility; not enough weight and he’ll be pushed around the paint like a rag doll. Maybe Wemby staying on the slimmer side accentuates his proven mobile skills like Anthony Davis. Even if that reduces his effectiveness defending and scoring out of the post, maybe that’s a worthwhile tradeoff in the long run since he’ll always have the footwork and shooting touch for post moves, doesn’t necessarily specialize in post-up defense, and can focus on being otherwordly in so many other areas. If Wemby’s ideal position from day one is a natural stretch-four help-side rim-protector, Wendell’s reliable two-way play at the 5 offers a strong traditional big man to pair Vic with against bigger frontcourts. Wemby can shift over to the 5 in advantageous matchups as he rounds out into his final NBA form, perhaps opting to put on necessary muscle to bang with the biggest bodies on the low block, like Embiid and Jokic.

In Orlando, Wembanyama has the opportunity to contribute to competitive basketball right away by filling an immediate rim-protecting floor-stretching role without being overtasked with too much of a scoring load in year one. Here, Wemby has a never-ending runway to develop into an on-ball superstar scoring creator as the team has plenty of playmaking, scoring, and defensive fortitude to fill any gaps along the way. As Wembanyama becomes more comfortable scoring in different on-ball playtypes, combining footwork, soft touch, and post moves into a consistent tough shot maker in all one-on-one situations, Victor’s scoring load should increase as long as the scoring stays efficient. Contesting without fouling, creating off the dribble, and making clean rotations are potential hurdles for Wembanyama to clear at the highest level, yet the basketball world may still wind up witnessing one of the most active shot-blockers, tough shot-makers, and lethal three-point snipers to ever play the game. Someone who can literally get his shot off over anything the defense throws at him, flashing scoring ability, rim-protection instincts, and all-around ball skills never seen before in the history of the sport for someone of his height and length, Victor Wembanyama’s development paths feel endless.

Pacers (Charlie):

Defensively, I’d like to see Wemby as the true roamer. With Myles protecting the paint, a lot of the switch responsibilities should fall to Vic. He will also be sorely needed on the glass to augment Turner, who has never been a strong defensive rebounder. His presence as a helping and switch-ready 4 can help mask the deficiencies of a Haliburton/Mathurin-dominated backcourt, though Andrew Nembhard minutes certainly help out. His talents would be wasted as a full-time paint protector, and since Indiana does not have that need, the team has no impetus to put him in a less than ideal defensive position. He can be your Bam Adebayo long-term, there’s no need to ask that of him right out of the gate, even if he is fully capable.

On the offense, I think he can help Indy in a variety of ways. Myles Turner was in the 88th percentile for roll frequency amongst bigs last year, and though solid enough as a roll man he is an equal (if not better) threat as a spacing/pick-and-pop big. Vic should see an equal diet coming off ball screen actions, and has shown the ability to pop as well as he rolls. Unlike Turner, I think he should be given a long leash of self-creation off these rolls and pops. Ideally, a 25-30% share of his offense could come via self-creation early on. Encourage him to face up or attack closeouts on pops. Let him use rolls to establish post position or try to cross the lane looking for shooters/cutters. He can ideally fill a lot of the actions they could run with Sabonis in years past. A splash of 4/5 PNR with Wemby handling or inverted guard screening actions wouldn’t kill them either.

Long-term, if the Pacers intend on keeping Tyrese Haliburton for the long term, they need to place a lot of emphasis on his off-ball game to match what is already elite self-creation skill for a big of his frame/age. A strong off-ball game not only benefits Haliburton and the team, it gives Vic the opportunity to conserve energy for late-game on-ball reps when a 7’4” game-breaking shotmaker is needed.

Wizards (Joe):

Ideally I’d love to run a chin/horns/high post offense with Wemby and Porzingis being interchangeable pieces, though I’d lean towards Porzingis’ usage being more of an outside usage. Washington already has one of the more diverse and well oiled delay packages in the NBA, and I’d continue riding these with the addition of Victor. Using his gravity to get good looks for others, while deploying the likes of Corey Kispert and Bradley Beal as on the move guys, pushing for empty side actions, seems a good strategy to me.

Defensively, I’d leave Porzingis and Gafford on the interior and let Wemby cause havoc with his wingspan and general freakishness. Porzingis will generally play in drop, I’d likely deploy some of the same coverages Ty Lue uses with Zubac. By this I mean potentially ‘hiding’ him on a weaker offensive player and keeping Wemby on the ball, allowing Porzingis to be that weak side rim protector. Mostly, I’m looking to mix up coverages as much as possible.

Jazz (AJ):

To start off we would ease Victor in a mostly off-ball role, with more opportunity and chances with the ball in his hands once he looks like he’s ready for it. I actually think this year’s Lauri Markkanen is one of the closest NBA comps you can come up with in terms of the ideal usage Victor gets in his prime. Vic has more upside as a ball handler and is 4-5 inches taller, but I think the way Utah utilizes Lauri within their offense would be the blueprint for Victor down the line. He has the size/agility combo to be plenty capable creating his shot in isolation or even running occasional P&R, but he’ll be even more dangerous wreaking havoc off the ball as a cutter, ball screener, coming off curl screens, attacking the offensive glass, etc.

Defensively, we’d look to take advantage of Wemby’s generational mobility at his size by playing with another rim protector a majority of the time. This is the strategy Cleveland and Milwakuee have used around Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen and Giannis/Brook Lopez pairings that have led extremely elite defenses, and a Victor/Walker Kessler pairing has an even higher ceiling than either of those duo’s. Vic at the 4 is the ultimate cheat code in the modern NBA, as he can fly all over the floor trying to cause as much havoc as possible while still having rim protection behind him.

Question Winner: San Antonio Spurs

Honorable mention: Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets

Question 3:

Sell me on your team’s long-term plan to not just make the playoffs but also contend?

Detroit (Josh A.):

The vision with Detroit long term goes as follows: an incredibly strong big four with complementary skill sets along with plenty of cap space currently available. Detroit made moves to acquire veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic last season, who can serve as the fifth starter for the time being. Bogdanovic provides the team with elite perimeter shooting and play finishing capabilities, and his wing scoring skill set works very well with the young core. 

Detroit also has the money to sign a strong free agent this offseason. Consider names such as Cam Johnson or P.J. Washington, both tall wing/forward hybrids with valuable skill sets. Cam Johnson is a lights out shooter and would mesh very well with the team’s young core, and P.J. Washington brings some off-ball scoring capabilities on offense with active hands and length on defense. Either player would be very helpful for the Pistons, as they both provide something that the team currently lacks: outside shooting (more so Cam Johnson than P.J. Washington). 

Houston (Neema):

Houston has been at the bottom of the barrel of the league since the departure of James Harden, and the questions about our culture are loud and obvious to the average fan. However, we are taking a turn this season, and looking to right our wrongs from previous years. The hiring of Ime Udoka, a proven coach during his time with the Celtics, will help us get the most of young, improving players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. With $47m in cap space, we can fill the roster with solid, experienced vets to complement our youth, and bring consistency to a lineup that allows their age to show a bit too often. 

Our core 4 youth movement of the aforementioned Green, Sengun and Smith, along with Victor, will be our focus, as each player complements the other on both ends of the court. While it may be a tough year or two to start, we are tired of losing in Houston, and will stop at nothing to get back to our winning ways that made us the 3rd winningest franchise between 2000 and 2020. Developing our youth, adding vets who can get the team right both on and off the court, and hiring personnel that will get the most out of our players, is our goal these next few years, and with Victor, we will only reach that goal faster.

Spurs (Tyler):

The San Antonio Spurs were in perpetual title contention for nearly two full decades, surrounding Tim Duncan with a bevy of different playstyles and roster constructions tailored to their franchise cornerstone. 

Building a contender is about building a cohesive roster with scalable, defensive minded talent. Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins offer a foundation of competitive and complementary talent that will be easily built out over time. Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones will help in creating easier looks for Vic through a combination of floor spacing and steady-handed pick and roll play. 

Most importantly, the Spurs are asset-rich with nothing tied down. We currently own all of our future first round picks with the rights to future firsts from Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, and twice from Atlanta. Building chemistry throughout a roster is important and finding the right context to grow with is a fickle task. Some of those pieces are already in place with the assets needed to make a big move when the time is right. 

Maintaining flexibility is the primary goal, as it is with any long-term enterprise. Things will go wrong along the way, flaws will be addressed. We have the future draft capital, prospects and cap space to address any speed bump along Vic’s journey to the NBA’s Mount Rushmore.

Hornets (Dennis):

This team is going to have a fresh start under new ownership with you as the franchise cornerstone. With you, LaMelo and the young core, we are just missing 1–2 pieces to make a deep run in the east in the foreseeable future. As I said before, we have pretty clean books from a roster building perspective, as well as a talented core to set up the future. The primary goal is developing the young core and adding additional pieces in free agency. We aren’t a free agent destination, but the chance to play alongside you and LaMelo could change that to an extent. 

It’s well known among coaches and front office staff around the league that Charlotte is among the league’s lowest spenders and I expect that to change under the new ownership group. We will turn every stone around and are looking to improve the franchise as a whole. 

Blazers (Uri):

Look at Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs and Luka with the Mavs. Conversely, look at the Tim Duncan situation when he was drafted number one by a Spurs team that already had HoFer David Robinson. Teams that take on a star rookie without the assets around him to build a competitive ballclub tend to whither under the pressure of that ticking clock. Any team with Damian Lillard and our amount of perimeter scoring will compete for the playoffs. In terms of contention, we know our roster needs improving, but we have more tools and a much more malleable squad than others would have you to believe. 

This offseason, we have two trade exceptions totalling $10.5 million, the full Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2m), and the full bi-annual exception ($4.5m). Not to mention our current cap progressions don’t really tell the story of our books. Jerami Grant is a free agent, Cam Reddish is a sign-and-trade waiting to happen, and the only cap hold we 100% know we’re interested in resigning is Matisse Thybulle (not to mention the not-so-secret secret that we can always hit eject on Simons along with our trade exceptions to bring in an even more impactful player). We’re in a position to win around the edges, and with how wide open the West is, we’re the only team that can feasibly compete for a deep playoff run while Wemby’s still on his rookie deal.

Magic (RK):

Thanks to the team-building process of front office execs Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, Orlando has sought out, targeted, and recruited good all-around basketball players who look for the open man, make the best decision for the team, and play hard on both ends. Behind the dual-wielding 6’10” drive-and-kick scoring hub on the wing in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the steady hand of pace-pushing playmaking point guards in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, the strong sturdy 3&D play of Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, the explosive energy of a second unit led by Jalen Suggs and the intriguing lengthy upside of Bol Bol and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando may already have the brightest young core in the NBA full of two-way team-first connector prospects at every position.

This season, Orlando made the 3rd biggest leap in wins, racking up 12 more W’s than the year before. After a 5-16 start without their starting point, Markelle Fultz returned to the lineup, playing in every game since. Over the next 58 games with Fultz at the helm, the Magic posted a .500 record, ranking 7th in overall Defense by D-RTG and 6th in drawing fouls as a team via FT Rate. The Magic being so proficient in paint touches, drives, and drawing fouls between the creation of 3+ players all under 25 years old are bright red flashing lights signaling a sustainable scoring system. Orlando’s length, energy, and rotations already doing the little things necessary to rank highly as an elite defense when the roster is relatively healthy is a positive sign that player-favorite Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s message to play hard and hustle every play is hitting home.

The biggest magic trick Orlando pulled off this season is putting out the team’s most watchable product on the floor in a decade, with non-stop competitive energy and an open up-and-down style of play, competing for a playoff spot up until the final week, all while maintaining one more shot in the lottery before “being too good to be bad”. The Magic somehow entertained fans for the full season while ending up with the 6th-best overall lottery odds and a 9% chance at winning the lottery outright for the draft rights to the most dynamic rim-protecting and tough shot-making scoring prospect the sport has seen since Kevin Durant, if not ever. Orlando has enough depth of competitive young talent to project a perennial playoff team going forward no matter who the team drafts this summer, with possibly two lottery picks on the way, and the cap flexibility to pursue at least one max-salary star in free agency. Imagining the overwhelming length, defensive impact, and scoring versatility in a lineup featuring Fultz, Franz, Paolo, Wembanyama and Isaac, Suggs, Cole, or Wendell is scary to think about.

Pacers (Charlie):

If you are adding the approximately 4-year/$42M deal that Vic gets to the salary sheet, the Pacers will be guaranteed paying 5 total players in 2024: Tyrese, Vic, Myles, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard. Assuming Haliburton is paid the rookie max a la Ja Morant, they’re looking at a roughly 5-year, $200M commitment. That leaves them paying roughly $75M for the core of the roster after this season, one in which they could probably still make some noise with Buddy Hield in the fold and some decent role guys.

Indiana can decline options on Daniel Theis, Isaiah Jackson, and Chris Duarte worth a total of 19.9M to end up with nearly $50M in cap space, more than enough to add a max contract to the fold. With the 26th, 29th, and a couple of seconds in this year’s draft, it’s reasonable to say the Pacers will add 1-2 more potential cheap young contributors, who can fill in at the margins or form part of a trade package. Extensions loom large as ever, but the 2024 free-agent class is loaded with All-Star caliber wings that Indiana can take a stab at. We saw with the DeAndre Ayton RFA offer that the front office is at least somewhat serious about spending to capitalize on their young talent.

The Pacers could maneuver their way into contention by 2026, when Wembanyama will be extension ready, by capitalizing on the draft this year and making shrewd decisions to try and land the big fish in the 2024 offseason. Even if they don’t, $40-50M spent on the right role players to augment a Haliburton/Wemby/Turner core could make them a tough matchup in the East. If signings or later draft picks break their way, who’s to say this isn’t the right time for the Pacers?

Wizards (Joe):

The elephant in the room is the Bradley Beal contract, it’s untradeable. He however is still pretty good and I think in the short-term, a playoff series win isn’t off the table. It may sound crazy, but the sheer size of the lineup with Kuzma, Wemby and Porzingis is going to be very unique in the Western Conference. Add that to the fact the likes of Delon Wright and Corey Kispert are pretty scalable and easy-fitting, pushing for playoff relevance isn’t completely ouf of the question.

Down the line, being aggressive in trades and playing the margins is a pivotal part of the process.

Jazz (AJ):

I think Victor’s rookie season we would likely make the postseason just off sheer talent, but it would largely be a feel it out year to see what type of roster and personnel fit the best around Vic. Is the gigantic Lauri/Victor/Kessler front court tenable long term? If not, which one out of Lauri or Kessler is the better fit and which one should look to be traded? Does Vic need a strong playmaker next to him to thrive, or can he be just as productive with a scoring PG like Colin Sexton? 

These are the type of questions we’d be focused on answering in Victor’s rookie season. Then from there, we can execute getting the correct players around him using Utah’s massive collection of assets. Between the approximately 14 first round picks the Jazz own from now to 2029 in addition to good/young players on attractive contracts (Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri, Kessler) we’d have plenty of assets to build the ideal supporting cast to supplement Victor and whoever we want to keep in the core next to him. 

Question Winner: Orlando Magic

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Question 4:

How do you see me fitting into your franchise off the court? What can you offer that others cannot?

Detroit (Josh):

Detroit is often looked down upon by NBA fans, but the city and franchise has a distinct long-term culture that Wembanyama could fit into. The team has always been known as a “take care of business” type of franchise, as teams like the Bad Boys and the mid 2000s Pistons were always some of the hardest working teams in the league. Young players like Cade Cunningham have publicly adopted this mindset, and Wembanyama could be next in line to fit into the team’s culture. Basketball is in a good place when the Motor City is fighting for the top, and a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama could propel the core to contention within his first few years with the team.

Houston (Neema):

*Cue Tops Drop by Fat Pat*

No city in the bottom of the lottery has more culture than Houston. Let’s start with the most diverse city in the United States. Candy paint lowriders, taquerias on every corner, a beautiful skyline, and a city that loves every athlete that walks through the door. In the heart of Houston, you will find yourself a home that not only accepts you, but wants you to become part of the culture. 

Do you miss France? French is the 6th most spoken language in Houston, with plenty of french restaurants scattering the city, and you can catch a direct flight to Paris whenever you like. Like the beach? Take a drive down to Galveston, or a joyride to South Padre over the weekend. Want the big city feel, but like your space? Houston is the 4th most populated city in the US, while also being #1 in area, so there’s nothing but space for you. More of a party guy? Welcome to the strip club capital of the United States. Big fan of outer space? Check out Space Center Houston, and see yourself among the stars. Like rap music? Find yourself hanging out with legends like Bun B, Slim Thug and Maxo Kream as they are a huge part of the culture in Houston. And don’t forget the best part: NO. STATE. TAX. The millions you’ll be making will go straight to your pocket, giving little to the government to mooch off of you, as you find yourself making more and more money in the best city in Texas.

Not to mention our long standing history of elite bigs, Houston is THE home for big men. With players like Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, and the legend Hakeem Olajuwon walking through the city, Victor Wembanyama will see his name hung up with some of the best bigs in NBA history. Everything is bigger down here, and adding a 7’5” superstar only proves that fact. 

Spurs (Tyler):

The question is this Victor, what kind of star do you want to be?

The city of San Antonio, and as a result the Spurs organization, is built on a singular foundation: family. This is a city proud of its culture and unchanging in its values. San Antonio is the largest city in America to be predominantly hispanic and you feel that everywhere you look. This is the Mexican-American city. 

I would imagine the folks in Houston told you they have great tacos.

Forgive them. They know not of what they speak.

San Antonio is a place where you will be beloved the moment you walk through the door, but more than that you will be respected. This isn’t some glitzy city concerned with celebrity or fame, you will have the freedom to live as normal of a life as you want. This is an educated basketball fanbase that understands the price of excellence. If you show up, they will love you until the end of time.

The question is not whether the city will turn on you when times get tough, it is the number of murals you would like to be made in your honor. 7? 13? 23? We’ll make it happen. 

The truth is, you will be an earth-shattering star wherever you go, your city will not determine that. If your goal is to become an actor, it might not be a great fit. If your aims are something higher than mere celebrity, but rather excellence and sustainability, there is no better place. Building a dynasty takes a remarkable amount of support and no other city knows better, we’ve done it before. La familia isn’t going anywhere, thick or thin. You won’t find that anywhere else. 

Hornets (Dennis):

I’m sure you’ve already spoken with Tony *Parker* our Nic *Batum* about our franchise and what the city has to offer. You can become the face of the city and Charlotte Hornets basketball pretty quickly.

Want to be the next goat? Consult with the current one. Want to hang out at one of our thousands of breweries to debrief from a tough-fought game? We got you. Hikes? Beaches? We’ll remind you of the French countryside if you let us (and squint).

Blazers (Uri):

We know there’s nothing Vic likes to do more after a long day of eviscerating the competition than curling up with a good book. Few places are better to call home than the PNW. With the tip-tap of rain on the roof, beautiful forests, and the silhouette of mountains in the background? Are you kidding me? Sounds like heaven. But, if he wants to hit the town in search of fine art, underground jazz music, or a refreshing seasonal IPA (in a coupla years), Portland has all of that and then some.

There’s just something about Portland and Vic that feels kindred. Portland is a multicultural urban hub in a quiet, beautiful state. Wemby’s the best prospect since Lebron but by all accounts is more of a gentle giant (off the court) than a Shaq. While the media circus will follow Vic wherever he goes, the opportunity to return to Portland and be the friendly neighborhood Wemby will do wonders to calm the immense pressure placed on him to start his career.

Ultimately, with a recent change in ownership, head coach, and GM, we see Victor as a sign of the times in Portland. Bringing in Vic as the totem that times they are a’changing for our franchise. He stabilizes things off the court as much as he does on it. For as much as the fan base will love him wherever he goes, he’ll always be compared to Hakeem in Houston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Zeke in Detroit, or Reggie in Indiana. With all the newness in Portland, he’ll have a chance to really grow along with the team as he helps define the Golden Era of Blazers basketball.

Magic (RK):

Sunshine and sunshowers. Freshly squeezed orange juice. No state income tax. Ever hear of the most magical place on earth? Orlando has warmer weather and more access to things to do than most NBA cities. Players make millions extra in salary by saving on income tax. The city is an hour drive to some of the most heavenly beaches on the planet, while being far enough inland to generally be safe from storms on the coast.

Between Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, and Paolo Banchero, Orlando only knows how to drop hits with the number one overall pick, even trading for Penny Hardaway the one year they shipped the pick out. (Chris Webber) Magic fans who have been loyal through the last decade that national media members treat as a laughing stock are die-hard supporters, yet none of the off-court drama exists here compared to larger market fan bases with media outlets adding unnecessary pressure or being overly negative. There isn’t a spotlight on every failure in Orlando compared to L.A. or Phili. Players have the freedom to make mistakes here and learn from them with long-term positive support to develop freely.

From upscale bars and nice restaurants to dive bars and sketchy clubs, Orlando offers a downtown atmosphere with suburban options, filled with museums, lake walks and theme parks as far as the eye can see. There’s always something going on twenty minutes away whether you’re raising a family or living single going out on the town. Be a tourist one day, a local bar-hopper the next day, and a beach bum the day after that. Live whatever life you want here. There’s a reason the first thing players say after winning the championship is “I’m going to Disney World.”

Pacers (Charlie):

Indiana is the basketball state. It doesn’t have the glamour of New York or LA, or the up-and-coming appeal of other NBA cities, but the culture surrounding the game is as good as you can hope to get. If he’s an outdoorsy kind of guy, they have some nice lakes. If he’s a city guy, Indianapolis is indeed a city, and Chicago is also close by. It’s not as appealing as the on-court fit, but he will have options for what kind of lifestyle he wants to live, whether he chooses intense urban sprawl or open skies.

Wizards (Joe):

Victor is an intelligent guy, and he knows that coming to DC would help elevate his profile not just as a basketball player but as an ambassador for the sport at the US capitol. It’s a short trip to the White House when we win the championship, and will give you plenty of avenues for expanding your brand however you’d want, in a central, big market location. Can any of the other teams in the lottery offer you that? I don’t think so.

We have been dreaming of a star of your caliber to arrive to tap into our basketball culture as a city, with grassroots hoops all around as well as front row season tickets to the Mystics. We’re a quick trip up or down the coast to whatever vacation location you desire, and as quick as you’ll find of a commute back to France. Make DC what you want of it!

Jazz (AJ):

One of the benefits of the Jazz organization is we’ve had a lot of success with foreign players and keeping them happy in recent history. The best player on the team currently is the Finnish Lauri Markkanen, and before him Rudy Gobert, who you know personally, was one of the most iconic Jazz players in franchise history and embraced by the fan base. Outside of basketball Salt Lake City might not be the most exciting or action packed NBA city, but the state of Utah is beautiful and there’s something to be said for a lack of distractions off the court. 

Question Winner: Houston Rockets

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

Question 5:

Give me a player besides Vic in the projected top of draft who you think would be an excellent fit on your team in the case of missing on him?

Detroit (Josh):

If the Pistons are not lucky enough to walk away from the draft with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson would obviously be the player the team should take if they end up with the second overall pick. Lots of Pistons fans scoff at the idea of running three guards together, but I believe that the offensive potential that a trio of Cunningham, Henderson, and Ivey has is unquantifiable. The halfcourt offense would be strong, as the team would then have three players who can create an advantage and send the defense into a scramble. The core also has the requisite blend of feel and athleticism to take advantage of these scrambling defenses, as all of these players project to be good cutters with different tools to punish the opposing defense. Guard to guard hand-off plays would be incredibly effective with this core as well, as allowing one of Henderson or Ivey to get downhill with Cade Cunningham finding open pockets in the defense seems like an absolute nightmare to guard.

The transition offense would be elite with this trio as well, as Cunningham can loft outlet passes with quarterback-esque ball placement to either Jaden Ivey or Scoot Henderson. Both of these players are elite open court athletes, and countering both of them with a head of steam feels like an impossible task for opposing transition defenders. This team should be able to run the court all game long, controlling the game’s tempo and making up for many defensive concerns.

Speaking of defense, this is where lots of Pistons fans become uncomfortable with Henderson’s fit into the team’s current core. I personally believe that the defense would be fine if the team prioritizes acquiring more rim protection from their power forward spot, as the team possesses a true anchor in Jalen Duren. Scoot Henderson also projects to be a positive guard defender due to his insane combination of strength and lateral quickness, though he currently has a ways to go as an off-ball defender. With the ball-handling duties being split among three players, all three will likely be able to fully buy-in on the defensive end of the court, and with Jalen Duren anchoring the unit, the team should be a functional half court defense with the upside to surprise some people on that end.

Houston (Neema):

If you read my previous answers, you’ll notice a huge lack of point guards being talked about. While Houston has some great pieces at the 2-5 positions, having Kevin Porter Jr play point guard has not worked out, and the team should be looking elsewhere. Luckily, this draft also has one of the best point guard prospects in the last decade. Scoot Henderson from G League Ignite, while having a slower year than many anticipated, is still clearly the 2nd best prospect in the class behind Victor, and would be a huge relief to the Rockets, who struggled to have any kind of offensive creation last season outside of Sengun. 

Having a true point guard who can play both on and off-ball, and create an athletic backcourt with Jalen Green would help push the Rockets from a poor decision-making young team, to a dynamic, young squad that can punch you in the mouth off tip every game. Scoot, while not being AS impactful as Victor long term, does still fill in a huge hole for the Rockets, and brings a level of athleticism, decision-making and skill at the 1 position that the team is missing. 

Spurs (Tyler):

I have spent the last 6 months with five simple words etched into my brain, permeating nearly every waking thought I have.

Amen Thompson is a Spur.

Victor Wembanyama is far and away the top prospect in the class, that is undisputed, but Amen Thompson is the best fit considering their existing team needs.

The San Antonio Spurs were far and away the worst team in the NBA at maintaining and creating advantages last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. 

The patented hum from Spurs offenses past began with one thing: rim pressure. Without it, there was no drive to kick start the drive and kick offense. 

Amen Thompson is the preeminent rim pressure threat of this class and potentially of the decade, apparating past defenders on the perimeter at the drop of a hat. The Spurs roster is littered with excellent spacing and dependent scoring in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Amen will have more than enough space to make his magic happen, and with his very presence the Spurs would finally, once again make sense.

Amen Thompson could be the next great Spurs point guard, following in the lighting-quick first steps of Tony Parker, but this time with the positional size and maddening creative genius that allowed Manu Ginobili to steal the heart of an entire city. That possibility alone is worth the price of admission.

Amen Thompson is a Spur. I feel it in my bones. 

Hornets (Dennis):

LaMelo’s size and skillset would allow us to make everyone of the top prospects fit, but Amen Thompson would be a mesmerizing match with him. We could become one of the most lethal teams in transition with both Amen’s and LaMelo’s ability to throw mind-boggling outlet passes and run the floor hard on every opportunity. Both also would complement each other really well as tall ball handlers with superb passing ability and high level of feel on the basketball court. I would expect them to build a similar bond as a passing duo as Amen’s with his twin brother, but with Amen more often on the receiving end of the pass. He is the best overall athlete in the draft and probably a top 5 athlete by the time he steps on the floor and in most draft years would have a strong argument to be the number one prospect of the draft. 

Blazers (Uri):

Great question, our situation is a bit different from those of our lottery companions. We have perimeter scoring, but our roster needs balance. We see Jarace Walker as a really strong fit alongside our current squad. We have enough on-ball guards, what we need is a culture establishing bulldog with positional versatility. He fits both of our needs and wants, adding high level lottery talent as well as filling the needs with a two-way wing. We love his defensive ceiling and offensive floor and see him as a 15 year NBA player for a successful ballclub. 

Magic (RK):

Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, could be a great fit to grow with Orlando. The Thompson Twins played for Pine Crest in Florida during high school before playing in Overtime Elite; while some scouts recently bring up doubts due to competition levels, we can’t ignore god given talent, natural abilities, and hard work. Amen and Ausar are two high flying guards who have the first step, burst, body and ball control to explode at the rim at will, creating paint touches with ease, with the finishing touch at the rim helping to create a realistic development paths going forward as downhill scoring forces with tough shot-making abilities. Elite athleticism, footwork, and timing helps the twins bring high-level defensive impact.

While Amen rightfully receives praise for blurring coast-to-coast highlights, Ausar has flashed more of a C&S 3pt shot diet and defensive activity through their early careers. Amen ranked 3rd in blocks in Overtime Elite’s season with 33; Ausar nearly doubled that total with 60 blocks to lead all players. In a three season sample at Pine Crest, Amen shot 28.9% 3P% (45/156 3PA) from downtown while Ausar attempted more than twice as many on similar efficiency at 30% 3P%. (111/370 3PA) From the free throw line, one demarcation for future scoring development, Amen shot 62.5% (267/427 FTA) while Ausar shot nearly 10% better on similar volume at 71.3% FT%. (263/369 FTA)

Both twins deserve to be high lottery picks, with Amen in rumors as high as 2nd overall. While Amen could swiftly become a north-south force star and household name, Ausar could quickly fill an off-ball 3&D role locking down the other team’s best perimeter player at point of attack on one end while attacking closeouts off the creation of others like Paolo, Franz, and Fultz on the other end while maintaining similar exciting upside as his brother. With development of tight handles, versatile shooting profile, and tough shot-making, all the skills could come together for Ausar to take a high two-way floor and develop into a dynamic on-ball scoring option.

Pacers (Charlie):

Though it’s tempting to say Amen Thompson, as he would be the ideal backcourt mate for Tyrese, I want to be realistic about draft spot. But his brother Ausar might fall right in their range.

Indiana is lacking scoring juice on the wings outside of Ben Mathurin, so Brandon Miller feels like a logical fit, but I’d like to see Indiana add more playmaking to the perimeter along with potentially elite defense and some scoring chops. Ausar feels primed to step into a Lonzo Ball-type role as a strong ballhandler and elite second-side attacker with connective passing chops and the potential for a solid catch-and-shoot game. He can also take the hardest defensive matchups off Haliburton and Mathurin’s plate, and the energy he expels on that end will be countered by the load that Hali/Eggs Benny can shoulder on the other end.

I can’t think of a better balance of scoring on and off ball, playmaking, and defensive potential in a three-man group of young prospects. That’s the kind of talent that could put Indiana back on the basketball map, even without Wembanyama

Wizards (Joe):

We like Bradley Beal playing off of versatile defenders who can shoot, and if Wemby is a miss, why not swing on Taylor Hendricks in the top 10. Hendricks has shown promise as a shotmaker (40% on 4.6 threes per game) and a stocks-maker (1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals per game) and we like his upside as someone who can also play day 1 with his athleticism.

Hendricks can shadow Porzingis as a rangy scorer/shotblocker, while also developing unique chemistry with wing of the future Deni Avdija. Hendricks’ biggest weakness is likely lacking the highest level of feel for positioning, where Deni can make up for his weaknesses with sharp passing, step-ahead rotations.

For fringe playoff teams, athleticism, shooting and defense can only help. All that while keeping star upside? Sign me up.

Jazz (AJ):

The easy answer to this is Scoot Henderson. Even without Vic, we have quite a bit of talent and versatility in the front court, and based off the 2nd half of his rookie season Ochai Agbaji is gonna be a fixture in our wing rotation for years to come. The biggest issue by far with our core right now is the lack of a top tier primary ball handler; and while Colin Sexton and Talen-Horton Tucker are both getting better and each have a genuinely elite trait to build upon, it’s clear that neither is close to rivaling Scoot Henderson as a long term prospect.

Outside of being a little light on perimeter defense, a Scoot/Agbaji/Lauri/Kessler checks virtually every box and we’d have plenty of assets left to invest in another 2-way wing to supplement this core. Amen Thompson or Anthony Black would also be great fits as potential NBA lead guards, but there’s no doubt that Scoot Henderson’s playstyle and star power would give our core the best possible chance at contending out of any player in this draft not named Victor.

The post Who Deserves Victor Wembanyama? appeared first on Swish Theory.

For the Detroit Pistons, the scale was always going to be a little different than the rest of the league. Coming into the year there was hope for a step forward for a young core to maybe push towards the back end of the play-in, something like the seasons had by Oklahoma City and Indiana. 

Then, Cade Cunningham went down and everything changed. For each player or group of players, we have defined the goal of season goals in this longer-term framework, with an eye to creating a foundation for the future. In a rebuild, everyone is working towards different ends, making measuring by statistics or wins nearly impossible. Context matters, and often makes all the difference. 

However, before getting into the players, I would be remiss if I did not start with the now-former coach. 

Dwane Casey

Goal: Continue to develop and foster a Pistons culture

Result: Exceeded

Yes, Dwane Casey just coached the team that posted the worst record in the league by five games. Over the last four seasons, Detroit has won 80 games. Be that as it may, it is tough to look back on the job Casey did negatively. 

Were there times when veterans got more minutes than some fans would like? Certainly. But the list of players who showed clear improvement under his watch is notable. Christian Wood put together his best season, resulting in an eight-figure deal (he has since failed to click with any coach).  As you’ll see as we continue, many of the players that follow on this list took marked steps forward. 

Even more surprising, the culture spearheaded by Casey and general manager Troy Weaver is impressive given the utter lack of consistency due to injury or any sustained level of success. You could tell players were frustrated by losing, but it never boiled over. There were never any reports of discontent or infighting, a rarity for a young rebuild. Everyone seemed to be on the same page and just wanted each other to get better. Casey deserves credit for being that leader.

End of Rotation: Kevin Knox, Jared Rhoden, Stanley Umude, Braxton Key, Buddy Boeheim

Goal: G-League Fill-Ins

Result: N/A

Also known as the back end of the roster, this group just did not play enough to really measure much of anything. Four of the five played under 300 minutes in total. Kevin Knox saw far too many minutes for most early in the season, averaging 14.1 per game over 42 games.

This group of young players is the type of players you have on the back end of the roster. The point is to see if something pops. When so many players missed notable time throughout the season, they should be there to soak up more minutes.

Given that only Knox was able to push into the rotation under the circumstances tells you plenty about where they stand. There was no goal here. These players mostly filled in as G-League call-ups at the end of the bench. 

Nerlens Noel

Goal: Serviceable bench big

Result: Missed

Nerlens Noel logged similar minute totals to the previous group but does not have the excuse of being a younger player. After being part of the salary dump alongside Kemba Walker that netted the Pistons the pick that would become Jalen Duren, Noel really never fit with the team. 

Noel was thought of as a decent rim protector off the bench who may end up turning into a trade asset at the deadline for a team looking to fortify their front line. Instead, Noel suited up for just 14 games in the Motor City. He only played more than 20 minutes twice and never reached double figures in points or rebounds.

After there were no bites at the deadline, Noel took a buyout and played just three games in Brooklyn. This could be the end of the road for the former lottery pick. He has played just 42 games over the last two years for three different teams. He did not seem exceptionally bought into a mentorship role, either, so the avenues for continued employment may be drying up. 

RJ Hampton/Eugene Omoruyi

Goal: Show they belongs in the league

Result: Met

Two young players brought in for the stretch run of the season, both RJ Hampton and Eugene Omoruyi were looking to prove that they deserved a place in the league. Despite their varied paths, Hampton and Omoruyi showed that young players are not necessarily defined by their first steps. 

Hampton was a former five-star recruit. He has played for three teams over the last three seasons and continues to show flashes. His 27-point outburst in the last week of the season may have caught some eyes, he reached double figures in eight of his 21 games. Will he be a star? Doubtful, but he could be a solid fourth or fifth guard to provide a scoring spark.

Omoruyi was a little more of a surprise. Two different colleges. Undrafted in the 2021 draft. Four games as a rookie on a two-way contract for the Dallas Mavericks. This season, he was on the Oklahoma City Thunder for 23 games before landing in Detroit. 

After two successful 10-day contracts, the Pistons had to keep him for the rest of the season. Eight of his 17 games saw him score 10 or more points. He just looked comfortable. It would not be surprising to see him back on the roster next year. 

Cory Joseph/Rodney McGruder/Alec Burks

Goal: Take the next step as a veteran presence

Result: Exceeded

One of the more underrated aspects of a rebuild is finding veterans who are there to help build. They are not worried about their own output at the cost of a younger player. Helping that growth keeps them in the league and could eventually lead to something more. 

Cory Joseph has been here for three seasons, often feeling like an extension of his coach on and off the floor. Joseph is a more than suitable backup guard for most situations. With so many young guards on the team, having a leader in the locker room to help them grow in that role is essential. 

Rodney McGruder is the consummate professional. There have been stories written about how so many players consider him the dream teammate, most notably from James Edwards III at The Athletic. Having someone like him to be a sounding board for young teammates is how the season was able to not spin into drama like other rebuilds. 

Alec Burks had the most on-court impact this season of this trio. Once he was able to return from injury, Burks was a walking bucket. He was the 15th-best 3-point shooter in the league, nailing 41.4 percent of his 4.7 attempts. If the Pistons had made him available, he would have found himself contributing to a real team. Given their desire to push for competency next season, keeping him around makes complete sense. 

Cade Cunningham

Goal: Take the next step to stardom

Result: Incomplete

Come back to review Cade Cunningham next season. He only played in 12 games this season before finally addressing a long-standing injury. Averaging 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists while getting accustomed to two new high-usage teammates, however, is plenty of reason for optimism. 

Marvin Bagley III

Goal: Live up to the contract

Result: Missed

Plenty was made of the contract given to Marvin Bagley III last off-season. Troy Weaver had long been enamored with the former second-overall pick. After trading for him at the deadline last year, he was always going to be brought back. After signing a three-year $37.5 million, it was important for him to play up to that contract. 

This season was not that. Some of it is injuries. Between hand surgery and ankle issues, Bagley was limited to 41 games. However, even when he was in the lineup, consistency remained an issue. He would consistently put up numbers, like his 21-point, 18-rebound performance upon returning to the lineup, but the defense left plenty to be desired.

Given the lack of consistent rhythm, Bagley remains the key front-court prospect most likely to be moved. While a two-big system was the plan under Casey, it remains to be seen if Weaver will want that with his next coach. Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren are unlikely to be displaced by Bagley. Wiseman, acquired at this year’s deadline, stands to get a continued look as well. Bagley has been fine. But is fine worth that price point as the team looks to improve?

Saddiq Bey

Goal: Find your role

Result: Missed, at least in Detroit

Probably the most disappointing Piston of the season, Saddiq Bey came in with lofty of expectations. As a rookie, he was a flamethrower from distance and looked to be a foundational building block. Last season he tried to do more to diversify his game and struggled overall. 

This season, it was more of the same. He continued to shoot 34 percent from distance and was inconsistent on defense. His role was compromised by the addition of Bojan Bogdanovic. Isaiah Livers fit the more limited role better while being cheaper. 

Bey has found his role more coming off the bench in Atlanta and will remain a what-if for Pistons fans. He was shooting just 24.3 percent from 10 to 16 feet this season, down three percent from a season ago. Since moving to the bench in Atlanta, that is up to 42.9 percent while he is shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Being the first first-round pick under Troy Weaver to be moved is an ignominious fate for Bey. Given how hot he was after his rookie season, this is not where anyone saw this going, moved at the deadline to take a chance on James Wiseman. However, by the time it happened, it made far too much sense.  

Hamidou Diallo:

Goal: Build toward his next deal

Result: Exceeded

I do not have to go much deeper into this. Two weeks ago I dove deep into Hamidou Diallo. For me, his goal this season was to garner a stronger foothold in the rotation and become an interesting free agent on the market this summer. Coming off his most efficient season finding a role to play should do just that. 

Isaiah Livers:

Goal: Become a rotation fixture

Result: Exceeded

Unless you were an avid participant of Pistons Twitter, your expectations for Isaiah Livers were likely not that high coming into the season. After playing just 19 games as a rookie you would have to have been a homer to expect Livers to become something to build upon. 

Livers, simply put, made Saddiq Bey expendable. Seeing real minutes saw his efficiency dip some, but he still converted from beyond the arc at a 36.4 percent clip. He continues to profile as one of the better defenders on the team, able to guard two through four reasonably. 

This will be essential if the team expects to turn the corner in any way next season. Only Bogdanovic and Burks were more effective floor spacers. The term “3-and-D” is overused but for a team building from the ground up, spacing is essential. For a team in the bottom five in defensive rating, having someone on the roster ready and willing to contribute on that end is required. Livers is a core piece for this franchise going forward. 

Bojan Bogdanovic:

Goal: Show he can contribute regardless of the situation

Result: Exceeded

The best player on the team for the largest chunk of the season, Bojan Bogdanovic surprised many. Those outside of the 313 likely figured he would be swapped out before long for draft compensation. 

Instead, Detroit signed the veteran to a two-year extension because of how much he embraced the situation. They needed a veteran player who brought it every night that could fit the young core. Bogdanovic does all of that. 

Posting the highest usage rate of his career (25.9) led to other career highs, specifically points (21.6) and assists (2.6). Even better, he was still extremely efficient, posting .488/.411/.884 shooting splits. Defense remained an issue, but with a tanking team that is part of the equation anyway. As the team looks to build a defense around the roster Bogdanovic will become even less of a liability. 

This was not supposed to be the usage level that Bojan faced this season. He was supposed to be a benefactor of Cunningham, not a usage-level replacement. The fact that he was able to shift into that when his younger teammate went out was a bright spot in a dark season.

James Wiseman:

Goal: Find a role

Result: Met

There was a varied response when Detroit traded for James Wiseman at the trade deadline. Some fans were bummed to see Saddiq Bey go. Others were intrigued by the potential of a former second-overall pick getting a change of scenery and opportunity. Plenty got off their jokes about too many centers. My initial reaction was documented here. 

The early returns on Wiseman are mostly positive. Starting 22 of 24 games, Wiseman averaged 12.7 points and 8.1 rebounds. He would be among the top 30 offensive rebounders in the league if his number in Detroit was his season-long mark. He even developed decent chemistry with rookie Jalen Duren, promising signs for a team intent on playing two bigs often. 

However, the future is still a question mark. This team will likely be looking to get minutes out of Duren, Wiseman, Bagley, and Isaiah Stewart in the paint, if not a potential number-one overall pick if the lottery smiles on Detroit. However, Wiseman showed that he plays well here and is willing to put in the work. Even if a move to the bench is more likely, there is a role for Wiseman here, which is a step forward. 

Isaiah Stewart:

Goal: Find his shot without losing other skills –

Result: Met

There have been whispers for a while that Isaiah Stewart could be a floor spacer. Given the changes to the roster, he would have to be. As a rookie, he played 100 percent of his minutes at center, followed by 98 percent in his second season. Any sort of change to playing with another big would be an adjustment. Furthermore, it would risk diminishing what he brings to the team.

Luckily, this concern was mostly assuaged. Splitting time between forward and center nearly evenly, Stewart was able to develop in what was a lost season for the franchise he played for. Part of this saw him attempt nearly double the 3-point attempts that he had taken over the combined first two seasons of his career. While his 32.7 percent conversion rate was below the league average, it is also somewhat misleading.  

He shot 36.6 percent from deep in the 2022 portion of the season, making the believers salivate. January saw him limited to nine games due to injury, and he shot just 11.5 percent. Despite making a third of his attempts in February, injuries ruined this mark. 

Stewart still showed enough to prove that this was something that could work. He and Duren make for a menacing paint presence, overflowing with muscle and verve. If he can continue to defend like a bulldog and space the floor just a bit, the ceiling is higher than some may imagine. 

Jalen Duren:

Goal: Earn real minutes, flash starter signs

Result: Exceeded

It is truly hard to remember that, at the beginning of the year, plenty were unsure if Duren would be able to force his way into the rotation. As the youngest player in the league, there were reasons to think he may start in the G-League. 

Instead, Duren looks to be a likely bet to make second-team All-Rookie. He was the best rebounder (8.9) among rookies and a top-five offensive rebounder (3.4) in the league overall. Also, he shot the eighth-best field goal percentage (64.8) in the league among players taking at least five shots per game.

Duren is offensively ahead of schedule. Mostly this is due to his game essentially being rim running, post-ups, and lobs. The defense needs work, but again, he is only 19. He missed the team’s primary playmaker for all but the first nine games of his career.

This is a prime example of why expectations matter for grading. For many players averaging 9.1 points and 8.9 rebounds in 24 minutes per game would be a shrug. When it is the league’s youngest player who came in expected to be the third or fourth big on the team, the success is clear.  

Killian Hayes:

Goal: Locate the vicinity of his shot

Result: Met (kind of)

Inconsistency will forever remain the issue with Killian Hayes. Defense and passing came into the season as known skills. For him to prove that he was an actual NBA player worth investing time and money into, let alone a team that has Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and the potential of drafting Amen Thompson or Scoot Henderson, he had to find his shot.

Hayes was top 25 (6.2) in assists and steals (1.4). He also shot just 37.8 percent from the field and 28.0 percent from beyond the arc. Frustratingly, there were stretches where promise was shown. From November to the NBA Paris game, Hayes shot 35.7 percent on 4.0 3-point attempts per game. That is more than a third of the season. It looked like he had finally put it together. 

The after-Paris stretch was truly ruinous. Over the last 32 games, Hayes shot 21.1 percent beyond the arc. Yes, he posted the first consecutive 20-point games in his career to end the season, including a career-high 28-point outing. 

Hayes is up for a contract extension this offseason. If that hot stretch had continued throughout the year, that would have been a likely possibility. Now, it would be irresponsible for the Pistons to not play this out into next year’s restricted free agency. 

Jaden Ivey:

Goal: Be one of the top five rookies

Result: Met

This goal was pretty easily defined by his draft position. Jaden Ivey was taken fifth overall in the 2022 draft, so the hope was that one year in he would still be ranked around that level. There were up and downs as expected, but overall the early returns are impressive. 

Ivey finished third among rookies in scoring (16.3), first in assists (5.2), and third amongst guards in rebounding (3.9). After the All-Star break, he improved to 19.3 points, 7.1 assists, and 3.7 rebounds while drilling 36.4 percent of his 3s. 

The absence of Cade Cunningham, while brutal for most of the roster, may have been the best thing for Ivey’s development as a rookie. He was able to see significant on-ball reps early and often. He spent time sharing the court with other guards, allowing him to see the game differently. With Cunningham coming back, he will be sharing the court with a different player than he saw after the first 12 games. 

As someone who was unsure of the fit coming in, consider this my mea culpa. Ivey proved he can play on- or off-ball. Cunningham showed that last season. The duo will be one of the most dynamic backcourts in the league in short order. Kudos to the Pistons for being able to boast that. 

The post Pistons Season Review: Assessing the Rebuild appeared first on Swish Theory.

Draft experts are often drawn more to these players because they see the ceiling. Coaches, however (especially in more dire situations) tend to shy away because they know that potential takes time, something the coach themselves is rarely afforded. However, if they were able to ride the rollercoaster of development, the reward could very well be worth the reward. 

With that in mind, Hamidou Diallo should be considered by many teams during the upcoming free agency period.

Archetypal Examples

Often, after one too many sophomoric mistakes, coaches can be unmotivated to continue to give young players reps. It is easy to forget just why a front office signed them in the first place, especially in the middle of a listless season, with little to play for over months at a time. But these developmental reps, often when few are watching, can be of immense value for flawed players attempting to make a leap to relevance.

Josh Smith came out of high school raw as could be. By the time he left Atlanta, he was considered one of the best active players to never make an All-Star appearance with career averages of 15.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game. Even if that was his peak (let’s not talk about his time in Detroit), those nine seasons were worth the developmental time, a key contributor to playoff teams in Atlanta.

Aaron Gordon may be the peak of this archetype working out currently without being too lofty. Never quite an All-Star, but turning over time the sparks of stardom to become a vital cog on a title-contending team. For the ceiling, Jaylen Brown is what it looks like if everything hits right. Elite defender, has All-NBA upside and can be one of the top two scorers on a title team. Jonathan Kuminga fits into this mold as well, adjusting to a role he likely didn’t expect for himself under the guidance of the Golden State Warriors’ system.

Today’s Case

This brings us to Hamidou Diallo, not as lauded as these precedents as the #45 pick in his draft. Diallo is likely set up to be a reserve for the foreseeable future. However, it is unfair to Diallo to consider him a lost cause by any means. The energy and athleticism he showcases every time he touches the court are tantalizing. Despite only playing 18 minutes per game, he is second on the team in deflections, third in steals, fourth in loose balls recovered. His dynamic play especially shines in transition, where he is tied with Tyrese Maxey for tenth in the league in transition scoring efficiency at 71% effective field goal percentage, getting to the line once of every five transition possessions.

For anyone who is not a regular watcher of the Detroit Pistons, it may be easy to underrate the impact Hamidou Diallo can make on the court. Plenty of Pistons fans did just that when the trade was made on March 13, 2021, to swap out Svi Mykhailiuk. Since then Mykhailiuk has played for four teams while Diallo has endeared himself to his new fanbase. 

Statistical Comparison

Do not get me wrong, I am not alluding to an All-NBA trajectory for Diallo. However, there is plenty to like here. Here is a statistical comparison of these four players over the first five seasons per 36 minutes:

Smith (2005-2009): 15.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.6 blocks

Brown (2016-2021): 19.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.5 blocks

Gordon (2014-2019): 16.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.8 blocks

Diallo (2019-present): 16.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks

Diallo’s stats are not far off from what we see in these comp cases, even as they were all much higher-priority draft picks. Diallo has improved despite playing the least minutes (4,913 compared to 12,550, 9,339, and 9,500) and games (263 vs. 376, 337, and 341) of the group, lending to variability of performance as well. Importantly, though, the rebounding and steals numbers stand out as the 6’5” guard has made himself a consistent physical presence. Remember he is doing this in a tanking situation and imagine what he could bring to a winner, and with a clearer role in future seasons.

Efficiency was less than stellar overall early on. Despite being primarily a dunker, Smith did not clear 45 percent from the field until year 4. Gordon continued to chuck 3s even though they were not something he ever really mastered. Only Brown found his stride there and it is why his ceiling is the highest of the group. What was important for each was their team finding the role they fit in. Diallo giving up on the three-ball has been a blessing, with career-high true shooting that is above league average for the first time in his career even as his rate of scoring has increased.

Developmental Differences

Brown is a different animal given the impressive development of his shotmaking over his career. He was paired with elite talent early on in his career and found his spots from the start. Gordon, on the other hand, needed to move on from Orlando to Denver to find his role. No longer was he looked at as a foundational building block. He could be a fourth option on offense and an elite defender. Smith was helped by playing off of Al Horford where he could become a dunker, rebounder, and defender with solid passing chops.

What was paramount for both of them and what Detroit is doing with Diallo, is putting them alongside top-scoring options who are still willing to get others involved. Gordon is blossoming alongside Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Smith took off with the ascendance of Joe Johnson and Al Horford. For Diallo, fitting in with the core of Detroit as it grows or in a newer situation would be paramount to his development. Playing off of Bojan Bogdanovic has been a boon for Hamidou in particular, with their +6.9 net rating together being Detroit’s top duo of any that has played 250+ minutes this season.

But now, the future is unclear. Diallo is slated to miss the rest of the season with an ankle sprain. As an upcoming free agent, it is worth looking at what he has shown to both Detroit and others to get his new contract. When looking at this, it also sheds some insight into why writing off a project before seeing it through can come back to punish anyone in the league. This is the resume that Diallo is presenting to those who should sign him.

Potential Lows

When it comes to investing in this archetype of player, there will be highs and lows. The flashes of brilliance (more on those later) get scouts drooling. Then things like this happen:

Just a little too aggressive. Not quite sure how to get into position. When this happens in closer games that mean something, that is a quick way to get a hook. In fact, Diallo found himself regularly out of the rotation early in his tenure in Detroit. Dwane Casey wanted to develop him, but he also wanted it clear that trust is earned.

Sometimes there is too much spring. Other times, gambling gets you out of position. However, one of the most common issues is trusting athleticism over mechanics too often, and that leading to mistakes.

It is tough watching this and calling this play a failure. He outhustles everyone and the move at the rim is so smooth. However, if Hamidou Diallo did something less flashy on the drive, perhaps he could have converted the basket before the buzzer. That drives coaches crazy.

Other times, confidence goes too far. If this dunk connects, even the Minnesota faithful would have lost their minds. Diallo rose up and was met at the rim by a mountain of muscle. This is not the end of the world when this happens on occasion. But, if you get less than seven shots a game, if a few are ill-advised aggression into a defender much bigger than you could quickly lose those opportunities.

Defensive Positive

Negatives aside, there is so much potential on both ends of the ball. If this type of talent is cultivated the rewards jump off the page.

This play is borderline harassment. He survives the pick and switch. Using his nearly 7-foot wingspan he is able to eliminate the passing lane without even looking. And, as will be a common theme for the former Slam Dunk Contest winner, the end result typically sees him rim running. Being able to realistically put Hami on a power forward and point guard successfully in the same position showcases his versatility.

In niche situations, he can even cover some fives. Keeping the feet moving and staying in front of a barrelling Naz Reid has been an increasingly tougher assignment across the league this season. The verticality, though, is chef’s kiss. Two years ago Hami would have almost always ended that play with a foul. Instead, he stays straight up, forces the deflection, and keys the transition attack.

Getting the athleticism to truly work often shows in recovery. For most players, if they were caught in a pick and their man got free, the shot is not going to be contested by them. Instead of remaining a step behind Anthony Edwards, Diallo takes the road less traveled and volleyball spikes his shot at the rim.

This is why, on the defensive end, it is worth working with players in this mold. if they’re willing to put in the hard work, refining this is rewarding. Over the course of four plays we saw Hamidou Diallo guard all five positions. Switchability and disruption are teachable skills with the right physical tools. He has been held accountable on that end and it is starting to come together. It also allows him to often remain the offensive human highlight film.

Offensive Explosion

Different players take the reigns their athleticism in different ways. Hamidou Diallo becomes an acrobat and a rim murderer.

It is easy to forget that Diallo once won a Dunk Contest. The event has become something of an afterthought and at the time he was a second-round rookie. But watching what he does in-game, you get it real quick.

It is far more than that, though. Even up in the air, Diallo is able to contort his body around defenders and plays the glass well. This is not easy to do, but Hami does this at least once every time he is on the floor. Would you prefer a little less flash and perhaps a little more shooting (27.4 from beyond the arc for his career)? Sure. But this is fun too.

For Diallo, it is a lot of cuts, putbacks, oops, and transition. He is a capable passer and is unselfish with the ball. His teammates love him and he is showing that hard work can absolutely pay off.

Where Do We Go From Here

Diallo being a looming free agent presents some questions for a team with the worst record in the league. As a non-shooter, it is tough to start him alongside the bigs and Ivey who need spacing. Off the bench, there is a little more room for him to work as he provides a release valve as often the most athletic player on the floor with just enough skill to get things done.

This is why it is a blessing and a curse for teams to develop this kind of player. Shooting is often the swing skill. If Diallo could shoot he would be a starter for plenty of team in the league. As is, he is likely a career rotation player, or maybe fifth starter in an ideal spot. If he goes to another team fans who have not kept up with his Pistons tenure (and, fair) will likely roll their eyes. Then he will check in during a second quarter of a November game. He will swallow up a block and drive in transition. He will set Twitter (if it still exists) ablaze with a hammer over a hapless defender.

These kinds of players have value. Diallo brings it every night, and has turned himself into a player who deserves all the minutes he gets. Even when his teammates are in the season’s doldrums, Diallo is always ready for the smoke. That plus the defense, dunking, and energy make him, and his ilk, some of the most fun prospects to take a chance on. Teams with a space on the bench should absolutely be calling his number.

The post Why Your Team Should Sign Hamidou Diallo appeared first on Swish Theory.

It needed to be said because media and fans alike have done plenty of joking and stressing about the move made at the deadline. And yes, I know the team drafted a center in the lottery last season. I also know they traded for a former lottery mistake a deadline ago who stands nearly seven feet tall. I even remember that Isaiah Stewart exists. But still, James Wiseman gets a thumbs up.

Given all of those facts that people seem to think Troy Weaver forgot when he swapped Saddiq Bey for the 2020 second-overall pick, the move for James Wiseman still makes sense. There is something to be found here and Weaver seems determined to be the one to find it. Even better, it fits their consistent goal. Even if people do not like the idea of playing two bigger bodies at the same time, Detroit does want this. For a team that did not have a stated goal for the better part of the last 15 years, seeing them build to that goal is relieving.

A rebuild gets easier when there is a plan in place. The plan was going to take a few drafts and trade cycles for Troy Weaver to get that in place in full. After tearing down the roster to the studs, keeping size with a variety of skill sets has been the archetype.

The Vision

For better or worse, Detroit has been adamant since Troy Weaver came to town that they wanted to employ a diverse set of big men. It started in 2020 when they selected Isaiah Stewart in the first round. They followed that up with free agent signings of Jahlil Okafor and Mason Plumlee. Then in 2021, the team brought in Luka Garza, Marvin Bagley, and Kelly Olynyk. Finally, 2022 saw the drafting of Jalen Duren and the trade for Nerlens Noel. 

In case you did not notice, Weaver believes that it is possible to play multiple big men. Luka Garza and Kelly Olynyk were often tasked with being floor spacers while contributing very little on the defensive end. Marvin Bagley has found ways to be a play finisher, dipping into his bag, while at this point Duren has been mostly used as a rim runner. Nerlens Noel, who has played sparingly, is there for his defensive role as either a drop big or hedging and recovering. Wiseman would likely fit more into the drop role while Duren fits more into the latter. Stewart, meanwhile is a different animal overall: Isaiah has improved as a passer (his assists per game have doubled in February) while continuing to stretch the floor but can also bang in the paint. On defense he just bodies people, embodying the Bouncer role.

So far this season, per Cleaning The Glass, 18 different lineups have played for at least 50 possessions in the Motor City. The second most common configuration combined Stewart and Duren with Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, and Jaden Ivey. Bagley replaces Duren for the third most common lineup. 

Overall four of their top 12 lineups played two of their three bigs. This would have likely been more had Bagley not been limited to 25 games due to injury. Casey and Weaver seem aligned in wanting skilled size to anchor them. Stewart has developed nicely, teasing a 3-point shot. Duren is a freak of a 19-year-old who never looks like the youngest player in the league. Part of this is because they are playing with lottery guards who are looking to get them into positions to succeed. Cade Cunningham coming back next year will boost that even more. 

Given this being the goal, it makes sense for Detroit to take a low-cost, high-reward swing on a talented big man. This would allow them to field a four-player platoon and play the same style even if they are in reserve-only lineups. Simplicity will be key in teaching all of these young players to play at an NBA level and this type of continuity fits that. 

But why Wiseman?

We are not far removed from a time when Troy Weaver was likely conniving behind the scenes to trade up to select the top target in his first draft where he was at the helm. His per-36-minute numbers jump off the sheet: 19.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, and 1.3 assists. Sure he has only exceeded 30 minutes in a game twice in his short career, but that is part of this too. 

If Wiseman starts the rest of the season and gets normal starter minutes (the current rumor), he would log almost three-quarters of his entire time spent in the Warriors lineup. Raw is the understatement of the year. Detroit has grown accustomed to taking chances of change-of-scenery candidates since the commitment to losing and rebuilding was clear. Wiseman is the biggest swing, but he could be exactly what they needed. 

Given the chance to be a better Marvin Bagley III is both a doable goal and a reasonable request. Wiseman could be the lob threat that Killian Hayes has dreamed about since being drafted. More than half of Wiseman’s shots this season have come within five feet of the basket. More than 80 percent of his baskets have been assisted. 

His growth gives him a chance to pair with Hayes and Jaden Ivey this year, as well as Cunningham (and maybe Scoot Henderson?) next year. There is no pressure here. Detroit is going to lose most of the rest of its games.  Wiseman does not have to worry about the hook coming for him here. 

The Fit

For anyone worried about what this means for Jalen Duren, they are missing the point. Duren and Stewart have paired well together and will likely be played together plenty. Wiseman, if he starts, will get to pair with Stewart and/or Bogdanovic. This will give him space to work with. From here, Detroit should essentially hitch Wiseman’s minutes to Bojan. If the pair comes out, in comes Duren and either Hamidou Diallo, Alec Burks, or Isaiah Livers. 

This does not necessarily have to cut into Duren’s minutes. While it is unlikely Wiseman and Duren share the floor much (unless Wiseman starts drifting out to shoot more often), there is plenty of minutes opened up by the departure of Saddiq Bey. Bey slotted in as a power forward in two of the top seven most-used lineups this season. This can easily be turned into pairings with either Bagley or Stewart alongside Duren or Wiseman. Focusing on developing both of these young bigs should not be a problem.

Giving Wiseman ample time with Hayes and Bogdanovic will give him space to work with and smart passers to enable him. When he is on the floor with Stewart, he will have help on both sides of the floor down low. Hayes will likely be the best point-of-attack defender he has played with yet. 

That being said, the defense will be bad. The losses will pile up. That too is okay. Detroit is not bringing James Wiseman in expecting him to turn them into a contender tomorrow. He is perfect to grow with them, not for them. That is a distinction that he has never been able to appreciate.

Am I being too optimistic? Most Pistons fans would be screaming yes. They are tired of seeing centers and Ls. However, I appreciate that at long last we have a leadership group committed to a vision and taking chances. James Wiseman is a chance worth taking that fits the vision.

The post Why Adding James Wiseman Was the Right Move appeared first on Swish Theory.