Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

The post Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics appeared first on Swish Theory.

The 7-1 start in the Jimmy era has certainly provided some answers. The team’s energy has returned, and vibes are undoubtedly restored. The initial numbers are positive, as the vibe shift translates to on-court results. Most notable to me is the discovery of a new lineup that has resuscitated their efficacy on both ends of the floor and could be a major tool come playoff time. That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

First, some stats for this lineup. It’s far and away the preferred Jimmy Butler unit since the deadline with more than twice as many possessions as the next lineup, and it is efficient. So far, the unit boasts a 114.7 offensive rating (57th percentile) and a 100.8 defensive rating (99th percentile), good for a +14 net rating that is 96th percentile amongst all five-man units per Cleaning the Glass (go subscribe to their service, by the way!). This is accomplished through their elite turnover and free-throw gaps, uncommon for this iteration of the Warriors.

This five-man unit boasts a 10.1% turnover rate (99th percentile) while turning over their opponents 19.4% of the time, a 94th percentile mark. The free throw gap is just as preposterous with a 22.3% free throw rate (90th percentile) and only allowing a 9.8% mark on defense, tops in the league. They also manage comparable eFG% numbers (50.8% to 53%) and offensive rebound rates (29% to 27%). Winning three of the four factors, and dominating two of them, is an excellent formula for success.

Now, more important stats: the halfcourt. Their 107.1 offensive rating in the halfcourt is a 95th percentile mark while generating a 94th percentile mark of transition looks. These Dubs are also holding their opponents to an 87.5 rating in the halfcourt as well. Those are numbers you can build on in the playoffs.

Alright, those were a lot of numbers. Unless you are completely new to my work you’ve probably guessed what comes next: copious amounts of film. I watched all 319 plays with these five players on the floor so we could learn what led to this early success and discern what is sustainable versus what can be exploited.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Steph makes a Warriors lineup entirely possible. Unsurprisingly, even at 36 years old, he is the bellwether of the Dubs. So for the sake of this article, I’ll work in a rough descending order of who dictates the success of this lineup. We’ll start with none other than Wardell himself.

Steph

The first 50 games of the season felt like watching a prolonged crucifixion on offense. Steph was sent out there every night to die for the sins of the organization, doomed to give his life just to eke out a passable team offense. With Jimmy Butler on the floor, that burden has been eased considerably, and the results show. He’s gotten his energy back and is attacking switches and isolations with renewed vigor.

Reducing the amount of players you can help off has given Steph and Draymond newfound space to work their two-man game. When the other three are a clear threat to score, they might be frozen on the right alignments and allow a 2v2 to unfold.

Still, Curry is going to see his fair share of double teams. The four-man unit around him has handled these chances well. A mix of good decision-making and various scoring tools has led to some great looks.

He’s the worst defender on the floor in this lineup. However, he can still funnel well, a tactic this lineup will utilize even more than normal Warriors lineups. The problem is that the 5-man unit is lacking in size before you even get to Curry, who is a couple of inches shorter than his compatriots. That problem shows up more in help defense and rebounding than at the point of attack.

All things have balance. Steph does more for the other four to get them good looks; it’s only appropriate that they have his back on the uglier end of the floor.

Jimmy

The Jimmy Butler acquisition opened up one of the deadliest actions this team can run. Split actions are common with many combinations of perimeter players and bigs, and Steph/Jimmy split cuts were expected to be a source of excitement. So far, the results have been exceptional for Jimmy, allowing him to get into the paint freely by using Steph’s gravity.

The reverse side of that is Jimmy’s driving opening up looks for everyone else. Driving and kicking or finding cutters is a great way to jumpstart the motion offense, and he seems to get it immediately.

This lineup has also buoyed the best parts of Jimmy’s game: driving and posting up. If you take away the ability to help early on his drives or properly double-team his post-ups, he will have clean looks in the paint all night and plenty of trips to the free throw line.

It strikes a good balance so far that takes advantage of Jimmy’s offensive instincts, size, and floor mapping. Accentuating his best scoring methods without over-exerting him bodes well for this team. It also enables him to make a major impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Jimmy’s skill as a rotator and rebounder with his size and instincts is impressive. He can make plays all over the floor while trusting the rotations behind him and the funneling skills in front of him. There have been moments where he feels hesitant at times, but he’s learning to get in the flow with 4 guys who have been playing together for a season and a half. It’ll come in time. For now, I’ll settle for some strong double teams and boards while he learns to play off the following defensive force.

Draymond

Whew. Nobody has been more invigorated by the Butler acquisition than Draymond Green.

We saw it early on how he’s been thriving again on offense working a two-man game with Steph and making plays when he’s double-teamed. It feels like the Dray of old. Sprinkle in some open threes and transition looks and suddenly he’s becoming a productive offensive player again.

The real standout here is how his defense has been transformed in this lineup. The trust he has in his rotations behind him and the technically sound containment in front of him looses him like the Tasmanian Devil on opponents. Here’s just a snatch of his elite rotation and help defense with this group:

No real change in his game to be noted in this lineup. It just feels like the Dubs are turning a giant dial that says “Draymond Green” to the max and looking at the audience for approval.

Podz

Now is when things get interesting. The star trio coalescing and playing well is a pleasant development but not necessarily a surprising one. A guy who’s been struggling all year turning into a high-level starter seemingly overnight is eye-opening. What has impressed me the most is how Podz has begun to capitalize on his defensive potential with this unit, making a huge impact with his funneling skills first and foremost.

Funneling your man out of the middle and into the help of Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody is a great formula to stay in the lineup defensively. Some outright stops or trail blocks will be welcome. He’s made an impact with his double teams too, blowing up actions left and right while maintaining good hands off the ball to generate steals. But the most important thing he brings to this lineup is the rebounding prowess from the guard spot.

Draymond, Moses, and Jimmy will throw around some hard boxouts, enabling Podz and Steph to come in and clean up the glass. They’re rebounding very well as a unit (more on this later) and Podz is a key cog in that equation. His size and nose for the ball have always produced strong rebounding numbers across several levels of basketball, and it’s much needed to make this unit work. If you want to read more about Podz’s talents as a rebounder, I wrote about it last year.

Offensively, he’s doing an excellent job at filling gaps. He’s the third most versatile scorer in this lineup behind Steph and Jimmy but has a lessened burden to contribute. That gives him the range to focus on his defense while finding ways to contribute as a shooter, closeout attacker, cutter, screener, and transition weapon.

That last part is the most important to me: transition. This lineup has managed to create a 98th percentile transition offense frequency, yet their 1.00 PPP mark in the open floor is abhorrent, to say the least. They desperately need someone to trigger good looks for others and find spots to pick for their shot. Podz’s passing and finishing talents mixed with youthful energy and his halfcourt defensive positions bode well for transition success.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Podz in these lineups going forward. The quality of his play might be the most important tipping point given his past inconsistencies and specific skillset. Here’s hoping he continues to thrive with these four.

Moses

It speaks a lot to the talent and cohesion of this lineup that Moses is arguably the fifth starter here, yet remains very impactful. The Dubs are now up to 11-0 this year when Moses starts a game and 21-27 otherwise. That’s not just happenstance.

Within this lineup, Moses is the most accomplished perimeter defender. His length and footwork combo, with some solid funneling instincts, makes him outstanding against most matchups. Podz and Steph can funnel well but are unlikely to stop a drive outright. Moody can do that or make a drive so dire that the driver is extremely vulnerable to help.

His size also leads to different usages when off the ball. He’s more than capable as a low man rotating or boxing out for rebounds and crashes well after shots go up. The athleticism makes him a defensive threat in transition as well, a large reason why this lineup has successfully closed down transition chances at a high rate.

I’ve especially liked seeing his synergy with the help in these lineups; defending in tandem with Draymond or Jimmy has produced wonderful results.

When you are taking on tough assignments, 75% of your floormates being experienced veterans helps a lot with your trust and confidence. This lineup unlocks a level of defensive intensity he has not discovered before.

On the offensive end of the floor, he holds similar responsibilities to Podziemski with slightly less handling. Shoot when open, crash the glass, screen, cut, and get to work in transition. Per usual he’s done a great job at all aspects of his role.

Moody has always been great at playing within himself offensively. As the 4th/5th scoring option in this lineup, he won’t take chances away from others by forcing things and capitalizes well on the chances given to him. If he can mix in some quality drives and glass crashes, he can be more than a 3-and-D player, which is all they need him to be in the first place.

Team Play and Strategy

As previously mentioned, funneling is a fundamental Warriors tactic. Double teams and icing the pick-and-roll play into that equation as well. They’re comfortable in rotation as a defense so forcing the issue is a benefit. It’s led to some wonderful moments of team defensive play in the halfcourt.

The team transition scoring has been tough, but transition chances are a goal with their 94th percentile transition frequency. The poor results have largely come from hesitancy as this less-than-speedy lineup is not pushing things hard. Yet there have been some moments of great team play in transition that I’ve enjoyed greatly.

What’s more absurd is that despite the lowly offensive rating in transition, this lineup manages to boast a +15.8 net rating in transition so far due to a wild 84.2 DRTG in the open court. There have been moments of brilliance, largely by Draymond Green. However, this looks like a bubble ready to pop. They’re allowing a high frequency of transition looks off live rebounds and have been burned by simply being too tired, not athletic enough, or not attentive enough.

This is certainly a playoff-intensity sort of lineup, and the concern is lessened come April but not gone entirely. They’ll need to continue limiting turnovers and picking offensive rebound opportunities well to limit the transition chances. Draymond can paper over a lot defensively in the open floor but he cannot do everything. Finding a way to keep chances low and relatively covered will be paramount for their success.

A last strategy point that may prove a weakness is the size. As previously mentioned, they have nobody taller than 6’7″ in this lineup, and it brings a host of weaknesses. They’ve been susceptible to offensive rebounds and post-up chances by the league’s taller players.

They need to be crisp with their double teams and help to deter these bigs on the block and rebound well as a team to maintain some control. They can control the floor horizontally with their ability to fly around and pack the paint, but you can only control so much vertically. The tallest trees soak up the most sun at the end of the day. Luckily, there have been lots of great team rebounding moments with this lineup:

On the whole, this lineup is extremely good despite these flaws and has ways to control these flaws. There’s a lot of season left to play but I’m keeping my eye on this grouping. Last night’s game against Orlando was a wake-up call of sorts, and the first time this lineup hasn’t closed a close game since the trade deadline. When teams throw two bigs at them and begin controlling the paint, countermeasures have to be deployed. Will it be the same when they come up against Oklahoma City’s twin towers, or Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

Flaws will be managed in the long run. They may have unlocked a lineup that could carry them up the Western Conference standings and put the fear of God into a team in round one. From there, who knows how high it could take them?

The post Warriors Unlock New Deadly Lineup? appeared first on Swish Theory.

In the bigger sense of the word, transition applies to the whole organization. It’s the first year without Klay and year two of a new GM. It’s the decision period for the rookies on the 2022 title team. New role-player acquisitions have marked a system-wide transition back to defense and shooting endless threes. But the basketball word transition applies in equal measure.

Last year’s Warriors hated that word. You could argue they were the worst transition team in the league—they were in the bottom three in transition frequency and efficiency. Fast-forward to this year and the Warriors have flipped that on its head. It’s small sample size theater here (it’s that time of year), but Golden State generates 23% of its offensive looks from transition, up from 15% last year. That frequency is a top-three mark in this young season while posting a 57th-percentile efficiency.

A few things drive this – the increase in defensive efficiency and turnover creation chief amongst them, along with the new personnel leaning more towards athleticism from the wing and big spots. Yet one man finds himself at the center of this transformation, and his name is Chavano Rainer Hield, better known as Buddy Love.

Running and Gunning

For some statistical context on Hield’s transition importance, Golden State has 132 total transition chances through their first 5 games. Hield leads the team with 23 of those chances, with Jonathan Kuminga close behind at 20 and Steph pacing the team in opportunities per game (16 in 3 games). What stands alongside the usage is efficiency as the other two biggest contributors are struggling, to be generous. Steph and Kuminga are both 5/18 shooting in transition, numbers that will even out eventually.

Hield will regress to the mean eventually, but a 15/22 mark with a scorching 86.4% eFG certainly catches the eye. Shockingly, the NBA’s leader in threes made over the past 5 years (take a shot for every time you hear Fitz say that on broadcast) is killing teams with his perimeter runs in transition.

He’s not new to this. The 31 year old veteran knows his spots, and you can see him in the first clip call out the lanes to open the corner for his shots. With Golden State’s collection of heady veterans and athletic wings/guards who can push the rim in transition, these looks will be open all year long.

I was impressed that Hield’s transition scoring wasn’t limited to hitting threes. He’s damn good at recognizing leakout chances and capable of creative finishes on the break.

Hield’s 1.7 points per possession in transition is 96th percentile amongst all players. That’s right, stand and applaud the small sample size theater.

So, he’s a great play-finisher in transition. What else can he do?

Chance Creation

The defensive infrastructure of Golden State comes into play now. There is no permutation of Warriors lineups you can create where Buddy is anything other than the worst defender on the floor. Staying in front of guys is not his thing. Looking at the rest of the team, that’s not the end of the world. They have more than enough guys to clean up his messes, and this enables Buddy in multiple ways on the defensive end of the floor to accentuate the transition game.

Again, sample size caveat, be warned. Hield’s stock creation has been on a whirlwind pace by his standards. The steal and block rates amongst wings are both 66th percentile on the nose, and the combined 2.6% rate of defensive event creation would be the highest mark of his career. The second-highest mark came last year in Indiana, in a “same same but different” scenario.

Indiana was an offense-first team with a Ponzi scheme of a defense designed to juice transition as much as possible by gambling for stocks. If we miss the chance, oh well, we will still outscore you. If the gamble works, our offensive talent will surely capitalize. Hield is allowed that same freedom to gamble in Golden State to trigger transition, only this time they have the defenders alongside him to back it up. And when it works, it REALLY works.

What’s key here is that Hield is free to take these chances and run out in transition. Hield is likely being stationed on a weak offensive point for the opponent, so if he takes off and the other team gets the ball back it’s less likely to burn them than, say, Andrew Wiggins taking off.

Hield also shows off some decent playmaking in transition. The guy loves to throw a lob and is adept at negotiating the passing lanes and tic-tac-toe game to find the best looks for his teammates.

What I’m looking for here are the sustainable things. Is Hield going to keep up his 86.4% eFG mark all year? Absolutely not. Can he keep up this gambling and chance-taking to boost transition? I think so.

The Warriors have made big changes to their philosophy based on the new personnel. This new emphasis on transition offense is here to stay, and Buddy Love will be at the center of that all year long. Keep an eye on Hield in the corner of your eye during defensive possessions. See how he picks his chances and puts himself in a position to run and gun. It’s going to be a fun year of strength in numbers and joy in buckets out in the open court.

The post Buddy Hield’s Transformative Transition Play appeared first on Swish Theory.

After signing a 1-year, $62.6M extension, the maximum allowable amount on top of his existing 2-year/$115M remaining, Stephen Curry is locked in through his age 39 season. That money can buy a lot of popcorn. It also feels the closest thing to a guarantee that Curry will finish his illustrious career in the Golden State, the dream of all Warriors fans. In a recent interview with Marc Spears, Steph clarified that he’ll be in blue and gold as long as the team isn’t a “bottom feeder”. Considering this past offseason, that seems to be a rather unlikely future.

This new deal also brings a good deal of clarity to the future of this team by aligning their contracts, an interesting wrinkle I want to explore.

The New Cap Sheet

Per Spotrac, my GOAT sports contract tool, this is how the Warriors’ future cap sheet lines up with the new extension:

You’ll notice a few things from the jump. Assuming all player options are picked up, a main veteran group of Steph, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, and Buddy Hield will run through 2026-27. Hield does have an option that will run through 2027-28, but that’s tied to a deal that is non-guaranteed in the 26/27 season, so it’s far from a lock.

Another important detail lies with the young players. Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody have yet to be extended, despite their eligibility this offseason. I’m not Mike Dunleavy Jr., but something tells me that extending Curry and making moves for veteran pieces was the priority. A fully actualized future and organized cap sheet gives them a better idea of what numbers they can reach, especially with Kuminga.

Assuming Kuminga were to reach a 4-year max extension, he’d be the only player locked in beyond the 2026/27 season. The same can probably be said for rising star Brandin Podziemski, someone the Warriors would be silly to let go of. That creates some interesting options for that offseason.

The 2027 Fork in the Road

Let’s assume a Kuminga deal gets done this offseason and Podziemski signs a new deal in the 25/26 offseason. That locks in their core young pieces, who would be 26 and 25 years old respectively, for a possible post-Steph future. Trayce Jackson-Davis would also be locked in through 2026/27 assuming his extremely cheap options are picked up. This also gives them a chance to keep a relatively clean cap sheet for what could be a final run together in 2026/27.

Steph will be locked in. Unless Draymond Green wants to opt out of $27.7M at age 36, he will be there. Andrew Wiggins would need a massive turnaround back to his 2022 standards to consider opting out of $30M in his age 31 season. Those deals, plus Anderson and Hield on non-guaranteed years, line up a three-year window for this team.

There’s some wiggle room here too. Moses Moody extension talks have been as quiet as the grave, and he may find himself on a new team by this time next year. Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, and new signing De’Anthony Melton represent $30M in expiring money next offseason. If this current team falls short of expectations, the brain trust can try to re-tool or make trades to reshape its image.

Let’s tease out a few scenarios here, from the optimistic to the realistic.

Where Is This Headed?

Here’s the ideal option. The veteran group stays locked in for the next few years and builds themselves a competitive playoff team. The young players develop while working toward new contracts. A trade here, a signing there, you might even have a contender on your hands. Then comes the 2027 offseason, and the veterans can return at lower cap numbers if they’re not ready to hang up the sneakers. Crazier things have happened but Steph Curry probably won’t be worth $62 million at age 39, nor Draymond worth $27 million at age 36. Maybe 2027/28 is the final swan song, vets surrounding the young core of Kuminga/Podziemski/Jackson-Davis. Hell, maybe Moses Moody is still around.

A more realistic option is this team spends the next few years fighting to stay relevant in the perpetual knife fight known as the Western Conference. No more jewelry, just a battle against the inexorable march of time. To some absolutist fans, that’s the nightmare scenario, and I can understand it on some level. 2K brain has us thinking you need to contend or stink out loud and anything in between is nothing short of criminal.

Ask yourselves: with no rings coming, would it be the worst thing ever to watch the greatest point guard of all time finish out his career where it started? On a team that should be playing April basketball? With some exciting young players in tow? Many things are worse.

Let’s say that is the realistic course. Steph, Draymond, and Kerr have three more years before retirement. Wiggins comes off the books, Hield and Anderson expire, and suddenly the youth are in charge. Golden State also owns all their first-round picks through the 2030 season, so one would assume another exciting player or two can be added between now and that 2027 offseason. We can sing the swan song and move into a new era with a well-laid path.

Some teams tank outright and find themselves with young prospect groups worse than Kuminga, Podz, Moody, and TJD. They’ll have a few more years of seasoning and will all be 27 or younger by the time this potential exodus of franchise legends occurs. It’s not a bad spot to find yourself in after the greatest core in franchise history moves from the court to the rafters and statues outside Chase Center.

So keep that 2027 number in mind. For all the yelling and whining many fans have done about this front office, they have set up a clear runway into this decision point. What happens now is for the players to decide.

The post Warriors Create Contract Alignment appeared first on Swish Theory.

Golden State finally wound down its heinous tax bill with the departures of Klay Thompson and Chris Paul, opening up the full mid-level exception. With that exception, they began to rebuild this team by signing De’Anthony Melton to a 1-year $12.8M deal, the first of three key role player acquisitions. Golden State has not used the full MLE on a free agent signing since DeMarcus Cousins in 2018. I broke down the tape of all three players, and we will start by analyzing the fit of Mr. Melton.

Key Offensive Stats

Melton is part of the answer to a key question in Klay Thompson’s absence: who will take the above-the-break threes?

That Steph Curry guy had 52% of his total shots come from above-the-break threes. Thompson himself sat at 51%. The list after that is full of departures and question marks. The highest share of above-the-break threes amongst the returners comes from Moses Moody (31%), Brandin Podziemski (29%), Andrew Wiggins (23%), and Draymond Green (22%).

I use the term “returners” loosely because a few of those guys may have been traded by the time I finish typing this sentence.

*Advice: check your radar for any incoming Woj missiles at this time*

De’Anthony Melton sat at 45% last year, which would have made him the third-highest Warrior last season behind the recently divorced Splash Brothers. Melton also managed to can 38% of those looks, and 21% were unassisted to boot. For reference, Klay hit 39% with only 6% unassisted. By no means does that even put Melton in Thompson’s stratosphere of shooter, but you can see how Golden State is beginning to recreate him in the aggregate, Billy Beane style.

In another stroke of similarity to Klay, Melton isn’t much of a rim pressure guy. Per Cleaning the Glass, Melton managed a 56th-percentile mark of shots coming at the rim with a ghastly 6th-percentile finishing mark of 49%. The upshot of that is only 42% of his rim makes were assisted, a 92nd percentile mark, so he certainly can get himself to the cup (as we will explore soon).

Melton does possess a shot chart that makes you remember why he was drafted by Daryl Morey and subsequently acquired by Morey in Philadelphia:

The last important stats concern Melton’s playmaking. How you view the assist numbers is very position-dependent. CTG lists him as a wing, where his 14.2% assist percentage ranks in the 73rd percentile. If he were listed as a combo guard (where he was in all previous seasons), that would be a 20th percentile mark. Melton managed to take care of the ball with a 2.9 assist/turnover ratio, but the playmaking numbers at face value may be a tad misleading.

Now, it’s time to get into the tape.

Off-Ball Shooting

When off-ball, Melton prefers to be a stationary catch-and-shoot guy. He can sprinkle in some deep range out to 26-28 feet with his feet set.

I tracked 15 movement shots last season for Melton, and he managed to hit 6 of them. Though not commonplace, coach Nick Nurse would sprinkle in some movement sets for Melton’s shot.

You’ll see a few Warriors staple plays above. The first and third clips are strong pindowns (the third clip being a staggered variation) and the second is an elevator-style exit screen.

He may not have the movement shooting proficiency of Steph and Buddy Hield, but Melton’s presence ensures that the Warriors will have at least one guard on the floor capable of hitting a movement three. The ability to scheme these shots opens up a lot for a team that relies on movement shooting to set the table for the rest of the offense.

Perhaps more importantly, Melton has other ways of hitting difficult threes.

On-Ball Creation

By my hand tracking in the 2023/24 season, Melton shot 20/55 (36%) on pull-up/step-back threes. That’s a damn fine number for a guard you don’t expect to handle a major creation burden.

Do you want Melton pulling the early shot clock step-backs often? Probably not. Yet as constructed Golden State has only two serious on-ball creators in the backcourt. The burden that will be placed on Steph Curry and Brandin Podziemski will be massive. Having someone who can create a good enough look when the team is in a bind is a solid addition.

He’s certainly capable of creating a shot in isolation and likes to use dribble handoffs to get these shots. That would seem to be a glove-like fit for this Warriors offense.

I came away impressed with Melton’s sense of when rejecting a screen or dribble handoff creates an advantage. It’s a nice bonus to his game as a low-usage handler. Someone who can make the most of limited possessions to create quality perimeter shots will be a boon.

Unfortunately, the extent of Melton’s on-ball creation is limited to the perimeter.

I was not impressed with the drives I saw from Melton. As previously discussed, the rim frequency is fine, but the finishing numbers are godawful. A lot of this comes from an inability to make playmaking reads while heading downhill. There are times when it looked like Melton had Seabiscuit-level blinders on.

For someone with 6 years in the league, you’d think Melton would be able to find open teammates when a crowd is in front of his drives. Being 6’2″ and possessing a subpar finishing package would only encourage a kickout in theory. Yet Melton routinely throws himself into the trees with little plan and few results. That’s going to cause some headaches.

It is worth noting that a series of back injuries Melton dealt with last year, costing him 44 games, must have played a role in the rim finishing numbers cratering. A healthy De’Anthony should be able to revert from terrible to below average as a rim finisher, but a healthy back doesn’t suddenly make you see open reads on the drive.

Melton is fine as a playmaker when swinging the ball around on the perimeter, but these more advanced reads seem to escape him. His on-ball creation is primarily for himself and rarely happens within 15 feet of the basket. It is better than nothing but will leave some Warriors fans wanting more.

Role Fit

Ultimately, what you see is what you get in terms of Melton’s offensive role. In the simplest terms he profiles as a smaller Moses Moody. Solid off-ball shooter with a sprinkle of movement stuff and a bit more pull-up three shooting than you would expect. The playmaking lacks, the finishing is uninspired, and ultimately you’re left with a guard that is roughly 90% off-ball and 10% on.

It’s not a bad fit alongside a Steph or Podz and certainly good for a one-year free-agent acquisition. Melton has graded out between the 58th and 76th percentiles in O-EPM over the last four seasons, a perfectly respectable number for a guard that will have at most the third-highest on-ball creation burden of this guard group. Just don’t expect Melton to be some huge offensive boon.

Key Defensive Stats

Melton’s reputation in the league comes from his defense. No question about that. Just glancing at the stats, you see the profile of a serious difference-maker.

He’s got 3 stocks per 75 possessions for his career. One, two, three for a 6’2″ guard. Melton’s steal rate has been no lower than the 93rd percentile for his career, and his career-low 0.8% block rate last year is still a 78th percentile mark for guards. The defensive rebounding experienced a similar dip (69th percentile last year), uncharacteristic of someone who has been 80th percentile or better for his whole career.

As with the rim finishing dip, the litany of back injuries likely contributed to the decline in block and rebound numbers. Try jumping with a bad back once and you’ll forever have empathy for 2023-24 De’Anthony Melton. Even with his diminished physical state, Melton graded out in the 87th percentile in total D-EPM last season. That was his fifth straight season being 87th percentile or higher according to dunksandthrees.com.

The statistical results are noteworthy, but I’m more interested in the how. What makes Melton such a quality defender?

Screen Navigation

The tape screams veteran savvy. Melton takes incredible angles to get around screens in a variety of situations. Even in his injury-diminished state, De’Anthony found a way to keep himself in front of the ball with his exceptional sense of the right intercepting angle.

There were moments where Melton’s size and hampered explosion showed with screen deaths and instances of being hip jailed. That’s a part of the game if you’re a smaller guard. The main question is what kind of effort you show to get back in the play.

Golden State doesn’t possess elite rim protection or highly switchable bigs not named Draymond anymore. They need guards who can keep things in front of them on the perimeter and permit a higher frequency of drop coverage. Melton is that kind of player who, health permitting, allows them to get away with a lot of defensive coverages.

Isolation Containment

Holding up in isolation is a skill of dying importance, especially for higher-end defenders. Isolation is where you get attacked when your opponents see a mismatch. No screen, no chance to switch and make it someone else’s problem.

For De’Anthony Melton, bigger/stronger wings and guards will occasionally bring the isolation into play. They mistakenly believe his stature makes him a mismatch. That’s very much not the case.

The Warriors will run switch-heavy looks against a variety of teams. Melton showing the ability to wall off bigger players on the drive plays well into this scheme. Switch Melton off a guard onto a bigger screening wing and you won’t get burned.

Those quick hands and positional skills play a heavy role in his off-ball game as well.

Stock Generation

When on the ball, Melton is quite good at trail blocks and pilfering the ball at the point of attack. His ability to generate turnovers isn’t diminished when playing off the ball.

Nail help steals? Sure. Pinning a ballhandler to the baseline? Easy. Passing lane interceptions, deflections as a pick-and-roll helper, transition blocks, closeout strips: he can do it all.

Most elite on-ball defenders tend to diminish in impact when switched off the ball. Melton still finds ways to be effective in help, mainly by generating stocks. Not only is this important for the defense, but it’s also massive for the Warriors’ transition attack. Golden State was the worst transition scoring team in the league when combining frequency and efficiency. Someone who will generate defense-to-offense possessions is going to be a welcome sight.

Role Fit

Whether or not Melton starts will say a lot about the priorities of this team. In a bit of a transitory era, with new experienced assistant coaches and a crop of new role players after Klay Thompson’s departure, Melton vs. Hield vs. Podziemski for the starting two guard will speak volumes about their new direction.

If Podz starts, it indicates a desire to take pressure off Curry with a second ballhandler. Hield starting would indicate little has changed in the offensive vision by putting the closest facsimile to Klay alongside Steph. Melton starting interests me greatly, as he points to a more defensive-oriented direction.

Melton profiles as the primary defender of guard matchups, one who can fly around screens enforcing GSW’s usual drop coverage. A 2-3-4 of him, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green are switching hell for opposing perimeter players, assuming all are healthy and engaged. And if teams go at Steph, Melton’s proficiency as a rotational defender and helper will prove to be a major asset.

Acquisition Grading

Grading the three big moves of this Warriors offseason is tricky because if Mike Dunleavy Jr. has his way, their offseason is not over.

Regardless, the Warriors managed to secure a quality rotation player without a multi-year commitment. The use of the mid-level exception made it cap-friendly. If Melton managed to stay healthy for 70+ games it should be a great move.

I’d give it a solid B+ because I would have liked to see a player with a bit more on-ball creation and rim pressure juice in his spot. However, if GSW manages to trade Gary Payton II and others now blocked in the rotation for a Lauri Markkanen or Collin Sexton type #2 offensive option, I’ll go ahead and give it an A.

The post Analyzing Golden State’s Offseason Acquisitions: De’Anthony Melton appeared first on Swish Theory.

Those who know me are aware I’ve battled depression for as long as I can remember. It has its way of scaling up and down, often at random. The milder times feel like carrying a rock in your pocket. It’s there, you’re aware of it, but it’s not cumbersome. More moderate times feel like a full backpack on your shoulders like you’re trudging through the backcountry, only you’re just going to get coffee, see friends, walking your dog.

The worst times feel like being put in a straitjacket. When it hits me hardest, there are days when I can barely move. I am pinned down in my bed like an invisible elephant is sitting on my chest.

There are ways for me to shake it—exercise, socializing, reading, distraction in any form. When the crushing weight of existence destroys my will to move, I watch things that comfort me. Movies and shows I’ve watched a hundred times can work, but more often than not it’s videos of old NBA performances.

In crisis over relationships? Klay Thompson‘s 37 points in one quarter were there for me. Overwhelming anxiety about work? Hello, 60 points in 29 minutes. Dread covering me like a shroud? Fire up Game 6 Klay.

Klay Thompson was more to me than just a guy playing on a team I watch. His best days helped me through my worst. I want to share that feeling with the world.

After speculation for years over which of this big three would leave, it’s finally happening. Klay is leaving for greener pastures after hitting a point of no return with Golden State’s ownership and management. I won’t lie, the prospect of seeing him in another jersey makes me extremely sad. God forbid that jersey is purple and gold.

I don’t want to dwell on the question of who is at fault for this rough divorce, what comes after, or how the fans are responding (hint: poorly!). Instead, I want to celebrate all we got from 13 years of Klay Thompson.

A Weird, Aloof, Lovable Guy

On the court, Klay Thompson was dialed in. Competitive as hell, ready to talk trash, always giving maximum effort.

Off the court? More or less a walking, talking, and boating 90s stoner comedy come to life. Like Fast Times at Ridgemont High and Dazed & Confused had a love child.

You want thoughts on scaffolding around New York? Klay had them.

A guy having the best time of his life in China on a shoe tour? Klay did that.

Hilarious things also just seemed to happen to and around Klay. He didn’t even try that hard to be funny, but laughs followed him around. Interviews where he seemed to forget how to speak or hit with incredible double entendres. The casual beer sip heard around the world. And who can forget the toaster?

Not only did the toaster bring much-needed levity to a weird first season of the Kevin Durant Warriors, the run after the toaster signing became legend on Warriors Twitter. The Dubs rattled off a 31-2 record to close the year, including a 16-1 postseason and the man who handed Klay the famous toaster ended up on top of a bus at the championship parade a few months later.

His actions were constantly hilarious. How did Klay respond to his heartbreaking ACL tear? Getting stoned and throwing rocks at trees. What other player would drive a boat to work every day the way Klay did? Or go live on Instagram while doing so?

It wasn’t just the random side quests he was on outside of basketball. Klay’s basketball quotes were also exceptional. Once asked by NBS Sports reporter Kerith Burke why he was so happy after a game, he said “I scored 43 points. Would you be happy, Kerith?”. Words to live by right there. After a championship parade, a reporter asked him how he was feeling. His response? “I’m tired and I want a sandwich”.

That also brings us to the other side of Klay’s personality that I love.

Consummate Competitor

There’s a story Shaun Livingston tells that has always stuck with me. During Golden State’s first championship season, Klay rolled his ankle and couldn’t play in a regular season game against Phoenix, ending in their first loss after a 5-0 start. Thompson spoke to the team after the game, apologizing for missing the game and beating himself up about the pride he feels toward his availability.

The vets told him hey, if you’re ruled out you’re ruled out. Don’t get bent out of shape over that. Klay responded like the iron man he is, playing in the next 56 games. He also went 3-0 in games played against the Suns after that for good measure.

He was the rare competitor who always took the blame. You rarely see him complain to the refs, chide other teammates, challenge his coaches. By and large his response to a bad performance is “I have to be better”. And when he was better, few got more fired up by their own performances.

Klay also loved to celebrate for his teammates, and it often showed in goofy ways.

It’s hard to not laugh at how dumb that looks, but it’s perfect Klay. Don’t overthink it, just follow instinct, no matter how silly it may seem.

That need to follow instinct showed up in his trash talking as well. Thompson never hesitated to talk some mess at his opponents, and it often backfired in comical fashion. He took an incredible shot across the brow at Rodney McGruder, only to see Golden State sign Rodney two years later. Guess he wasn’t about to be out of the league.

There’s the infamous four rings incident with Devin Booker, which Klay himself admitted on Paul George‘s podcast was not his proudest moment in the league. That kind of behavior is what endears me to Klay; people lose control of their emotions from time to time, but how you react after is the best judge of character. To sit there and admit “yes, that was dumb” is a rare quality in any person, let alone a professional athlete.

The ultimate competitive moment of his career came against the Toronto Raptors in what would be the final game played at Oracle Arena. Golden State had their backs against the wall, needing to win to force Game 7. Thompson, already playing hurt, was scorching for 28 points on 8/12 shooting in a neck-and-neck game when Klay went down with an ugly knee injury. What did he do about it? Calmly knocked down his two free throws on a torn ACL. That’s the epitome of giving it all for your team.

I’d be remiss going through this piece without linking my favorite Klay performances because he is indeed a basketball player, not just a hilarious guy. So here are the clips that guided me through the aforementioned tough times.

Wherever Klay ends up in free agency, they’re getting an elite personality and competitor who can still knock down threes with the best of them.

Klay Thompson’s Warriors career is in the past like a ponytail. Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because we got to see 11 seasons of the purest stroke in basketball go to work, hit clutch shots, lock up, and win. Then win again. And again. And again.

Peace out, sticks. Klaytheism forever.

The post Sayonara, Klay Thompson appeared first on Swish Theory.

Star Wars has the shameful second and third trilogies (Revenge of the Sith exempt here). Jurassic Park has created a lot of slop. Ghostbusters continues to churn out garbage. The Matrix creators decided a fourth movie was necessary for whatever reason. All devoid of the original magic that made them great.

The Terminator franchise is the most apt when I think about the current Warriors. The first movie was fantastic, something new the masses had yet to experience, much like the 2015 Warriors. They somehow came out stronger with T2, akin to the KD-era title teams. T3 was not as good as the first two, yet they managed to pull it off like the plucky 2022 Dubs.

Then the rebooting began, and the magic was lost. Terminator: Salvation still had their Steph Curry equivalent in Christian Bale, yet everything else failed to live up. Chris Paul did his best Sam Worthington impression, utterly without lift. Bryce Dallas Howard mailed it in like Andrew Wiggins, which I suppose makes The Village her 2022 Wiggins playoff run?

Like the IP holders of the Terminator franchise, the Warriors are faced with a choice: do we keep making the same movie and hope for a different result? Or try something new and reap the potential rewards?

The Crossroads

We’ve all seen the stories by now. Steph wants a winning situation. Klay Thompson is a free agent with suspected suitors. Draymond Green is under contract, but the patience may have run out.

It’s not as hopeless as many would make it out to be. The fans of the other 29 teams have been waiting to ring the death bell of the Warriors for some time. They tried to ring it once before, and that didn’t pan out. But even if the title hopes are gone, this team still has some meat on the bone.

Assuming the core trio stays together, the predictable outcome, GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. has things to work with. Chris Paul, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, and Kevon Looney have all made themselves expendable. That’s over $73 million that can be moved. Paul’s $30M is completely non-guaranteed, and Looney only has 3 of his $8M guaranteed, making them ideal expiring contracts to move. Wiggins is a tougher sell with one more year at $28.2M, but the right tanking team won’t mind.

I hope for Andrew’s sake that he can continue to cash the checks while spending the time with his family that he needs in these difficult past couple of years.

They’re also possessed with strong trade incentives to go with the salary. They can move at least two first-round picks with Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and even Brandin Podziemski or Trayce Jackson-Davis if they so desire. I’m not advocating for one deal or another. The point is that options are out there.

The Desired Path

I think I can speak for most Warriors fans in saying the last thing we want to see is the core being shattered this offseason. The chance of returning to a higher contending status is narrow, but it exists. The right trades and use of cap space could see them recover some of the old magic, and title #5 or no we’d all like to see them give it another try.

Equally disastrous as the nuclear option would be to continue chugging along with the current formula. Trotting out the old IP like a lazy studio executive. Make moves on the fringes, use all the draft picks to add more inexperienced talent, and continue to be content with mediocrity. That would be the path that takes a Steph trade decision out of their hands.

Retain the core. Be aggressive with trades and free agency. The rarest thing in basketball is to have a core this accomplished that starts and ends their careers together, and the fans would love to see it happen. It’s something we may never see again in the league. Riding off into the sunset with a whimper would be devastating. The front office must give them a chance to go out on their shield. Hopefully, this soul-crushing end to the season gives them the motivation needed to do so.

Let’s get something new and imaginative to put a bow on this. Don’t have next season be your Terminator: Genisys.

The post The Rebooting of the Warriors appeared first on Swish Theory.

Besides being a lefty who looks like the upper half of a centaur with a funky love of hook shots, his proficiency as a rebounder is nearly unparalleled among NBA guards. Podz rates as a 99th-percentile defensive rebounder amongst guards, and 97th-percentile on the offensive glass.

Even with the rise of huge guards (and Podz is no slouch at 6’5″), his rebounding stands out. Only two guards boast higher offensive and defensive rebounding shares than Brandin: Ben Simmons (6’10”) and Russell Westbrook (all-time rebounding guard). I’d say that’s pretty good company.

Rebounding at this kind of level doesn’t just happen. It takes effort, timing, and technique to reach the level Podziemski has already achieved as a rookie. How does he do it?

Using Boxouts

Like Westbrook, Podz excels at using boxouts by his teammates to secure boards. He checks his man well and has an innate understanding of angles, knowing how to best position himself behind the boxout:

Podz isn’t just reliant on boxouts from others to generate rebounding success. He’ll happily do the dirty work himself:

In fact, among all the guards who have played as many minutes as Podz, only two boast a higher rate of boxouts per 48 minutes: Jaylen Brown and Jalen Williams. Not bad at all!

Boxouts are decreasing in frequency and importance as the game spreads out further. The real question for most rebounders is how you handle your defensive rebounding zones.

In Zone vs Out of Zone

An important part of rebounding is making quick checks. Players have to move into the proper position when the shot goes up. Using that time to check for potential offensive rebounding threats helps make a great rebounder, and Podz excels at this.

Those quick checks give him a better idea of what kind of resistance is coming in addition to whether or not a boxout is needed. It makes him a fantastic in-zone rebounder (i.e. rebounds that come to his natural defensive position).

Controlling the rebounds that come your way is great, but it’s not as impressive as out-of-zone boards. Recognizing chances to crash into other zones and help collect rebounds impacts team rebounding hugely.

A huge part of recognizing out-of-zone chances is noticing when your teammates are at a potential disadvantage. Podz can check the scene, recognize opportunities to tip the scales and help to secure that defensive stop.

Podz doesn’t just excel at securing defensive boards: he sparks the transition game once secured.

Transition Triggering

Podz isn’t exactly a big transition threat. He has mediocre transition frequency (56th percentile) and even worse efficiency as a scorer (28th percentile). But he still finds ways to contribute, especially as an outlet passer, which all comes from his defensive rebounding.

He reads the floor quickly and has good loft/accuracy on his passes. You probably noticed the middle clip was a deflection, but given the time and score, it was a good risk to take.

If you can’t grab the board and burn down the floor like prime Westbrook, find other ways to help out the team transition game. This is a welcome addition for a Warriors team that has struggled to generate transition opportunities all year.

And it’s not all on the defensive end where Podz impacts the boards.

Offensive Rebounding

As previously mentioned, Brandin posts elite offensive rebounding numbers. His combination of technique and effort stands even taller when getting busy on the offensive end.

First, the technique. Inside positioning is the name of the game when it comes to the offensive glass. If you can get through boxouts and work harder for that position, you’ll find yourself creating a lot of second chances.

When you’re amongst the trees it can be difficult to outright secure the board yourself. Podz loves to high-point the ball for tipouts and give the perimeter players a better shot to secure the board, taking the bigs out of the play.

Tipouts by themselves can lead directly to second chances. When you play a lot of minutes with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, they’re as good as assists.

In addition to being technically sound, the effort sticks out. Podz is constantly outworking his opponents to create these second chances. That kind of hustle endears you to teammates and makes them want to compete harder.

Does that kind of effort make you want to run through a brick wall? That makes two of us.

In a season where Golden State has suffered from inconsistency, lethargy, and a lack of size, this kind of rebounding from the guard spots can be a game-changer. There will be years to come when the Warriors try to build around a smaller team. Rebounding will have to be made up on the margins. Brandin Podziemski is a guy who thrives on the margins. You go, Mr. Tumnus. You go.

The post Brandin Podziemski: Guard Rebounder Extraordinaire appeared first on Swish Theory.

That’s how ex-NBA’er Tim Legler described his baseline requirements for a championship-level NBA defense on JJ Redick‘s podcast, The Old Man and the Three. And all Leglar has to point to for evidence is the NBA’s most recent champion, the Denver Nuggets.

Denver’s defense was the definition of ‘adequate’ in the 2022-’23 regular season, finishing 15th in defensive rating. But try telling that to the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat; each of those teams scored just 38 points in the second half of their respective season-ending losses to Denver. Their defense didn’t just “ramp it up,” they shut it down.

The Nuggets did it again in their most recent win, a mere regular-season triumph over the Golden State Warriors on Sunday night. Their moment of truth didn’t come at half-time of an NBA Finals closeout-game, though, but when Head Coach Michael Malone chided his group for their poor defensive start, down 45-32 after 14-and-a-half minutes of play.

“I don’t know if you guys are watching. Klay’s got 21, five threes. Make him work for it. “

Over the final 33-and-a-half minutes, the Warriors scored just 58 points. Klay Thompson scored two more points, and zero after half-time. Switch: flipped.

The Warriors remain the pre-eminent test for NBA defenses. Not because they are still the league’s most fearsome offense, but because the Dubs exist to force mistakes. Splash Bro Ridiculousness aside, Golden State’s buckets are often the result of clear defensive breakdowns. Sure, it’s hardly a sin to overcommit to Steph Curry and let his screener slip to the rim, but mistakes are mistakes, and the Warriors give defenses ample opportunity to make them.

In Sunday’s contest, Denver either didn’t take the bait, or hastily covered their tracks. In doing so, their defense took the shape of their offense; Nikola Jokić led the way, and his teammates were everywhere they were supposed to be.

This started, naturally, on Steph Curry’s pick-and-rolls. With Jokić in the action, the Nuggets showed two to the ball as many teams do, but with a wrinkle. In an effort to prevent some of the 4-on-3 mastery that Draymond Green has long showcased, Denver had Curry’s defender go under the screen to jam Green before recovering to Curry. Watch Kentavious Caldwell-Pope body Green up before stealing the ball here:

In order to throw two bodies at Curry and slow down Green’s prolific short-roll ability, the Joker had to hold up on one of the toughest individual covers in the world. At least, for the split-second after Curry sees Green isn’t an immediate release valve and thinks he has space to attack, a scary proposition for a seven-footer.

Here, Jokić doesn’t fall for Curry’s hesitation move and forces a change-of-direction back toward an oncoming KCP, which results in a turnover:

Caldwell-Pope was characteristically terrific on D, whether it was nailing off-ball switches or going under these ball-screens while still providing pressure.

So too was Aaron Gordon, AKA chicken soup for Michael Malone’s soul. How easy it must be to trap ball-screens with Jokić when Gordon is on the back-line, capable of both recovering to the rim for a block…

…and recovering to the perimeter to make a textbook closeout, as the Nuggets ultimately stifle the 4-on-3 advantage Golden State spent a dynasty perfecting:

The Nuggets couldn’t prevent every 4-on-3 advantage for the Dubs — the accepted cost of trapping/hedging vs Curry — but Gordon consistently de-escalated those situations.

Yet, it was Nikola Jokić who played the role of Denver’s biggest neutralizer.

Players like Sabrina Ionescu and James Harden, both possessing outlier hand-eye coordination but regarded as poor defenders for the majority of their careers, don’t suddenly lose their athletic ability when defending their basket. For all their flaws on that end of the floor, each can rack up deflections, using that same skillset that allows them to be such prolific off-the-dribble shooters on offense.

Nikola Jokić is cut from the same cloth, but has turned it up a notch. The notion that he is a negative defender is long gone. Are we surprised that his singular feel for the game is now apparent on both ends of the court?

Draymond Green just had to learn the hard way. Here, Big Honey punks Green in a vaunted 2-on-1 opportunity, feigning at his drive before breaking up the lob, forcing a turnover:

The Warriors had won that possession. A high ball-screen for Curry in early offense created the roll opportunity Denver had been trying to eliminate all night: Green storming downhill unimpeded, with a lob threat in the dunker spot. We’ve seen this movie on an infinite loop, but Jokić changed the ending.

Denver forced Golden State’s hand. Not only is Jokić now nimble enough to run aggressive schemes on the perimeter, but he has defenders like Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to fill the gaps. Let him roam around the basket, and the mistakes Golden State forces don’t amount to much. Slip your little off-ball screens, sure, and slip right into the hands of Nikola Jokić:

The defining sequence of the game — and perhaps this new era of Western Conference supremacy — came with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets led by five points, and each coach had subbed their big guns back in for the stretch run. Curry and Green checked in, as did Jokić and Caldwell-Pope.

As Golden State got into the meat of their out-of-timeout play, Curry floated off a flare screen from Trayce Jackson-Davis. Green watched Caldwell-Pope get caught on said screen, and passed it to a soon-to-be wide-open Curry.

Only, Jokić broke the rules. Green knew Jokić was too smart to get beat on the slip from Jackson-Davis, but didn’t consider the obviousness of that line of thinking. So the two-time MVP picked off Green’s pass and headed the other way to run a 2-on-1 fast-break against the greatest defender of his generation. The roles had been reversed, and the two basketball savants locked into a three-second chess match.

It was over before it started:

The Denver Nuggets still have it. Their defense is much like their offense, led by Nikola Jokić and capable of exploding for game-breaking stretches.

And of course, they’ll still dunk on you.

The post How the Denver Nugget Defense Dominates appeared first on Swish Theory.

No, it’s not “fire Kerr”, “trade Klay”, “European bigs” or “affordable housing”. It’s two timelines.

We know it didn’t work. The youth gave a minimal boost at best to the 2022 championship team, and the sheer volume of developmental roster spots arguably cratered the 2022-23 season. Trades were made, roster spots were consolidated, but still, the Warriors struggled to get production from the youth.

This season marks a turning point, all from the back of one man. Jonathan Kuminga‘s breakout as a legitimate second scoring option. That breakout stems from one word: drive.

I wanted to explore what has…driven this breakout, the only way I know how: watching every drive of Jonathan Kuminga’s career and tracking his development in four key areas: handling, finishing craft, midrange counters, and creating for teammates. I’ll work through each category in chronological order, starting from his rookie year up until the present day. So, let’s get going.

Handling

If you watched rookie year Kuminga, you can probably guess where this starts.

He was legitimately one of the worst handlers I’ve seen. Dribbling off his foot, failing to read help, losing the ball when the momentum got away from him. All that could go wrong did go wrong.

The turnover numbers certainly could have been worse: his 7.2% turnover rate on drives was in the range of James Harden, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and many other stars. It’s the context of the turnovers that hurts: Kuminga was a low pass percentage player on the drive, and wasn’t creating a lot of offense for himself either. One turnover for every 4 baskets made is not ideal.

He had one handle play he could count on: the spin move. It was the one thing he had some semblance of control over, and he used it so often it would make Pascal Siakam blush.

You can see the flashes of advantage creation with his handle. Driving with the intent to draw help and spin away is huge, and he thrived while doing it at full speed. These were still simple reads and handle plays on the whole, and it wasn’t all sunshine and roses when he went into the spin cycle:

The slow spins were pretty rough. He failed to create advantages and was often trapped into bad shots or turnovers. Even with the majority of the spin results being positive, one good move does not a solid driver make.

Beyond the spins, most of his handle successes were 2-3 dribbles in a straight drive. There’s something to be said for a lack of wasted movement, but when that’s just about all you can do, it’s concerning.

But I did want to note one particular play, a foreshadowing of sorts for his handle development:

That body control and awareness combination – a running stop without traveling AND the well-timed fake – was a small sign of what was to come.

Moving to his sophomore season, his bag of tricks grew exponentially. To be sure, he still used the spin move to a high degree:

You can see the development in his methods with the spin. Incorporating fakes, changes of pace, a drop step on the finish. All of this requires a higher level of footwork and ball control in addition to the fast processing speed as he reads the defense.

Other tendencies remained. His propensity for travels contributed to an increased turnover rate on the drive, up 2.1% from his rookie season:

Despite this, the good in his handling started to outweigh the bad. Kuminga began to challenge himself, chaining multiple moves to create better advantages while cutting down on the careless lost ball turnovers. He created an impressive set of dribbling highlights in comparison to what he produced in that first season.

There were still the “oh no” moments, to be sure, but they were fewer and further between.

It’s also worth noting that the quality of his straight-line drives increased. He powered through digs and nail help, even bigs being placed on him, to get the looks he wanted.

With the handle tightening up, we got to see more of his power/speed combination on display. Put too slow or too weak of a wing/forward on him and he can dust them. Put a big on him daring him to shoot, he goes right around them. It’s the beginning of a serious defensive conundrum; all he needs is to add consistency.

Year three brought that longed-after handle consistency. Chaining moves, mixing up his looks and speeds, and keeping the handle-based turnovers way down.

The sheer volume of unguardable drives also increased. He began to exert his will over opposing defenders, some of whom are known for their defense:

There are still issues, to be sure. He has cut down on the travels this season but they remain, and he’ll lose his handle from time to time or have a rough gather affect his finish.

The development in this department cannot be ignored. He went from simple 2-3 dribble drives and constant, predictable spin moves to move combinations, maintaining balance with good footwork, and manipulating defenders with his dribble. By and large, Kuminga will be able to physically overwhelm defenders with his athletic tools. There will be situations where more advanced dribbling is called for to create advantages, and he is beginning to seize those opportunities.

Getting yourself to the rim is one thing. What happens when he gets there?

Finishing Craft

This is another area in which Kuminga has grown by leaps and bounds. Much like his rookie-year handling, the finishing was generally ugly and inconsistent.

Jumping off the wrong foot, using the wrong hand, not aligning himself into the shot leading to bad mechanics. A lot of major red flags. It only got uglier when he tried more complex footwork patterns in his finishing, like drop steps or drag steps.

Finishing with the left was a clear issue. Too often he tried to force it with his right hand in situations that called for the left or tried to adjust a drive to get to his right when the left presented the better option. But he did have some solid flashes with his right, showcasing a baseline level of coordination on the move.

Kuminga managed a solid 58.4% finishing rate on his drives, but if anything this was a reflection of how easy the majority of his drives were. 2-3 dribbles and a dunk were prevalent outcomes, especially when considering the bigs or slower wings that were tasked with guarding him. It’s not to take away from his skill – excelling at the easy stuff is important – but it left lots of wanting.

Going into his sophomore season, the finishing numbers dropped tremendously to 51.3%. This, however, is not an indication of a decline in finishing skill. It was a sign of pushing harder to get tough finishes.

The volume of his straight-line drives went down, replaced with tougher finishing angles after more complex dribble moves. As covered earlier, his turnover rate also rose during this season – another confirmation of the increased difficulty present in the film.

In a strange twist, the disparity between his righty and lefty finishing grew larger – in favor of the left. He displayed a lot of good touch with the left throughout the season:

A greater control over his body was leading to better results. His momentum was contained, he could pick better angles off the glass, and slow himself just enough to get soft finishes instead of clunkers.

It was the strong hand finishes dragging him down. Some of this was a product of the defense; at times they would dare him to finish left in single coverage, but sent major weak side help if he managed to penetrate the paint going right:

A major part of that increased difficulty on his drives was the increase in finishing moves he applied. Instead of spamming the spin button repeatedly, Kuminga mixed a healthy set of drop steps, drag steps, pump fakes and hesitation moves to unsettle his defenders.

Of course, some spins were still mixed in.

You’re probably wondering “Hey, this all looks great, but why the drastic drop in production?”. Well, there were a LOT of finishes that didn’t quite work out despite his best efforts.

What was important to me was that he was trying things. Development isn’t a process of doing the same things over and over until they’re perfect. Development is polishing those things that are good while working on those that are bad. So, you have to power through a LOT of bad to get to the good.

This process of trying things led to another important development: serious foul-drawing potential. With Kuminga putting together more consistent drives and drawing the attention of the defense, on-ball and help defenders alike chose to hack him down instead of allowing a finish. For the second straight season, Kuminga finished tops on the deal in percentage of fouls on the drive amongst rotation players with more than 2 drives per game.

Those final two clips are the most important to me. Pressing an advantage on a line drive and getting hacked is one thing. Using fakes and hesitations to get defenders off-balance or in the air and forcing the contact? That’s an important tool in the bag of an elite driver.

Now that we’ve seen the increase in difficult finishing tries and foul-drawing techniques, let’s see how he has put it together this season.

In the current season, Kuminga has risen to new heights of efficiency mixed with increased difficulty. His 57% finishing mark on the drive is not only a 6% increase from the previous season, but it also leads all Warriors players who get at least one drive per game. He’s also second on the team in personal fouls drawn per drive, with only Dario Saric beating him there.

Another important mark is the rise of his right-handed finishing. It jumped over 6% to sit at 50% for the year, nearly equaling his 51% mark with the left. It’s been great to see him power through increased defensive help on his stronger side and convert tough finishes.

Kuminga’s growing awareness has led to better finishing outcomes in many ways. His quick floor reads have led to an increase in “catch and go” possessions, where JK scans the floor to see an opportunity to drive off the catch and poises himself to take off as soon as the ball hits his hands. That gives extra fractions of a second before his defenders can turn to contain the drive.

It’s all coming together from a finishing and foul-drawing standpoint. You can see the complex moves to draw contact mixed with tough finishes:

His points percentage on the drive has reflected this. His rookie season, full of easy line drives, recorded a 77.4% mark. That dipped to 60.2% in his sophomore year, yet another reflection of the increased difficulty and defensive attention he garnered. Now, with all of those strenuous factors still at play, he has risen back to 77.2%.

To put that in context, 116 players in the league match or exceed his mark of 5.6 drives per game. Kuminga places ninth of all those players. Here’s a snapshot of who has him beat:

That’s your last 3 MVPs, another former MVP, and a whole bunch of All-NBA/All-Star players in front (Alpie, you were robbed!). I’d say that’s good company.

We covered the development in his handle, and the finishing has risen to match it. He went from struggling with complex dribbles and finishes to pulling them off with relative ease in only two years. Now he finds himself as one of the elite players at generating points off the drive.

But there is more to this than how you get to the rim, or what happens when you get there.

Midrange Counters

This has always been a very important aspect of driving to me, even if less so for wings/bigs.

Once a player gets past the three-point line on a drive, there are essentially three ways it can go: rim attempt, midrange attempt, or pass attempt. Knowing what the driving player is capable of dictates how the defense will play them. If only a rim attempt is likely, the whole defense will load up the paint. The midrange as a counter move can buy extra time for the driver to read the help. It also offers an alternative to the rim if the paint is loaded and no passing options are available.

(We will get to the importance of the passing aspect later; don’t fret.)

I don’t think it is reductive to say Jonathan Kuminga is a rim-first driver. He should be, in all honesty; what midrange attempt or kickout pass brings more value than a guy finishing 75% of his rim looks? But if that’s the *only* thing he threatens to do off the drive, it makes things quite difficult to generate those shots. Therefore the midrange is a necessity for the development of his rim pressure.

You could probably guess that the midrange was a bit ugly in his rookie season. Results were poor overall – 34% in the short midrange (26th percentile) and 5/11 on long twos. To be sure, there were some decent-looking possessions and he had confidence in his shot:

Ugliness was the dominant result, however, especially when it came to floaters. He simply did not have the touch for one-handed shots on the move, and the majority of his movement twos looked similar:

But the signs of life were there. He was willing to try and understood to some degree that a balance between the rim and the midrange had to be found. Even without good results, Kuminga rated in the 42nd percentile of midrange frequency in that rookie season. It was a threat, but not a convincing one. Compared to his rim looks, the midrange was a dull knife next to a katana.

The knife was sharpened a bit during his sophomore year. The confidence remained and the results looked a bit better; his short midrange jumped up 9 points to 43%, a 58th percentile mark. A rise in frequency was a welcome sign to boot – midrange shots went from a 24% to 29% share of his total shot profile, while three-point attempts dropped. Increased volume and efficiency is tough to pull off for *any* shot type, but especially the midrange since they are nearly all self-created.

He especially got comfortable with the turnaround over his right shoulder. It was an easily repeatable and often available shot. Kuminga seemed to be more settled physically when shooting the midrange; it felt less forced and more mechanically sound. This led to more soft-touch rolls on his shots, contributing to better results.

However, the floater still refused to come along for the ride. There were makes, but they looked awkward and with poor footwork/body alignment. The vast majority of the looks ended up looking like this:

Still, he tried much harder for those shots. Floater attempts became a bigger part of his game. He was on a similar track to his rookie season: take a lot of attempts and process the failures to deliver better results later on. He wasn’t just missing shots, he was collecting data in the process.

Now, the current season. Once again we see a huge jump in frequency, this time from 29% to 36%. That is an 86th percentile frequency amongst all wings. Paired with his 85th percentile rim frequency, you’re now looking at a player seeking to dominate at the first two levels.

Another important development in frequency is the number of long twos. 11 attempts in his rookie year were followed by 20 in his sophomore season. You could call it an increase, but at that level, it could have been a simple scaling up in shot attempts. He’s up to 38 attempts in this current season and still has 29 games left to add to it. Now we have a trend.

He took major steps in the variety of his midrange looks as well while seeing comparable success in terms of his makes (42% last year to 43% this year). There was a lot more variety beyond the right shoulder turnaround. He could comfortably pull up left and right, use the step-back, put defenders in jail, turnaround left, whatever you wanted.

It’s becoming a thing of beauty. He’s mixing increased volume, solid efficiency, and a deepening arsenal of moves to greatly advance his scoring profile.

Here’s a snapshot of forwards that can match Kuminga’s midrange frequency (35+%) and efficiency (43+%) with more than 200 midrange attempts: Kevin Durant, DeMar DeRozan, Tobias Harris, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, and Mikal Bridges. That’s some damn good company for midrange success.

This success has enabled him to add further layers: drawing/baiting fouls in the midrange, using pump fakes and step-throughs to get himself to the line.

It never hurts to snatch some reliable points by getting your defender up in the air. His processing speed has grown by leaps and bounds in so many respects this season.

In addition to the massive gains in his midrange success, the floater showed real signs of life:

The additional confidence (and success) with his floater has done a lot for his midrange success, especially around the restricted area. Not only does it enable his short midrange frequency, but boosts the array of moves he can pull to keep defenders off-balance when anticipating his finishes.

As we saw with his handling and finishing development, Jonathan Kuminga was already a tough cover. Adding this level of prolific midrange shotmaking brings him to a new level of danger. The only forwards in the league that can match his driving and midrange efficiency? Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard. End list.

There is a last category, however; one that brings him down a rung.

Creating for Teammates

This part gets ugly. We’ll just rip the Band-Aid off.

Only one player posted a worse rate of passing out of drives (3+ per game) and assist percentage than rookie Jonathan Kuminga: Jaren Jackson Jr. The film asserts what the stats say. He couldn’t handle more than the most obvious reads, and even many of those were a struggle.

Here are his best plays made off the drive that season:

No, really. Highlights.

Then, you have the lowlights:

Bad footwork. Late reads, or entirely missed ones. Poor pass placement and body control. He checked all the telltale signs for a player struggling to catch up with the speed of the game. Picking up two turnovers for every assist on the drive was a tough scene.

It got somewhat better in his sophomore year. The passing rate on the drive increased (27.4% to 33.7%) and the assist rate jumped (3.4% to 11.0%) while the turnover rate increased modestly (7.2% to 9.3%). Much like his driving to the rim and midrange, he scaled in volume with increased success while not letting some bad results get in the way of him trying.

There were still plenty of bad turnovers on the drive and processing issues, to be sure:

This was balanced with better execution of simple reads: kicks to the near and far corner/wing, dunker spot finds, reading cutters or open shooters in space. It’s not impressive playmaking, but beats the hell out of no playmaking.

So it would seem his playmaking is on the up and up. But as I’ve stressed in previous articles, development is not linear, and his playmaking off the drive has crashed back out in the current season.

This season, he’s back at the bottom of pass rate (26%) and assist rate (2.8%) with – guess who! – Jaren Jackson Jr. To some credit, he’s cut down on the turnover rate (9.3% to 8.3%) but it’s nothing to write home about with that playmaking drop.

The bad pass placement could have been expected, but it seemed like he was less active in reading the help and has been prone to lazy turnovers. Despite the scoring heights he has reached the current season, the playmaking on the drive has clearly regressed.

Another problem with his drive playmaking has cropped up: running into an excessive amount of charges. Failing to read the help and carelessly running into turnovers feels like rookie-year behavior, not the player we have seen this year.

The most frustrating part is that he still put on the flashes of a solid passer, and even showed a better sense of how to manipulate the help on the drive to get higher-quality looks for teammates:

It was a question of consistent effort on Kuminga’s part, not a true regression of skill. If anything, the gap between his good and bad playmaking widened. The problem is that the bad once again outweighed the good.

This lack of consistent playmaking for others, especially considering the driving gravity he will draw, could become a major limitation of his star status. It’s something I’ll keep a close eye on as we track his trajectory.

Wrapping Up

It’s clear through the tape and stat mix that Kuminga’s development in handling, finishing, and midrange scoring has taken a major leap, all contributing to huge success on the drive. There are obvious playmaking concerns that loom large over this, but he has all the time in the world. He won’t turn 22 until next season. And don’t forget he went from utterly inept on the drive to borderline dominant in the span of 2.5 seasons.

Parts of this article may come off as overly critical and expectant for a player his age. That was partially my intent. He has put himself into a stratosphere of offensive performance that demands expectations for further development. When your game grows this quickly, why would it stop? We (the fans, the analysts, the team, Kuminga himself) all want the same thing. To see his game kick into an even higher gear, and the next one after that. And the next one. And the next one…

The post Jonathan Kuminga’s Drive to Stardom appeared first on Swish Theory.