So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

Pascal being dealt was not a shock; the Raptors were flirting with NBA purgatory and in desperate need of a full reset. The package was also not a shock, as three middling first-round picks for a 2x All-NBA player with 22/6/5 averages is more than fair. The shock was the team involved in the deal and the lack of a following extension.

The Pacers, despite their burgeoning success with a young team, do not play in a market that historically attracts free-agent stars. A player like Siakam probably wouldn’t be joining Indiana of his own volition over the summer, thus the need to make a deal and spend the second half of the season convincing him that re-signing would be a boon. It’s fair to hand-wring over the thought of spending that draft capital on a star that can easily walk. Yet it was a swing Indiana rightfully felt compelled to take given their success.

The deal paid off in their first playoff series, finishing off a stumbling Bucks team in six games. Siakam led the team in scoring throughout the series including a crucial 37/11/6 performance (with no turnovers!) in a Game 2 victory on the road, stealing home-court advantage and setting the tone. I wanted to explore how Pascal’s performance fueled Indiana’s upset victory and propelled them to the conference semifinals against the New York Knicks.

Offensive Overview

Pascal led his team despite dropping plenty of points from distance (27% on 22 attempts) and at the free throw line (46% on 26 attempts). Inside the arc, he was a dominating force. Siakam converted 62% of his twos, an incredible figure for a guy who takes a lot of midrange and post-up shots. His best work came in the post and in transition, where he generated 1.4 PPP. Watching him use his athleticism, size, and touch to overwhelm an undersized and relatively unathletic Bucks team was extremely impressive.

In addition to the scoring prowess, Siakam managed 25 assists to a measly 3 turnovers. Incredibly, he managed to take care of the ball well despite the volume of double-teams thrown at him. We will explore the film to see how Siakam did his damage in addition to creating for his high-flying teammates.

Midrange Dominance

As previously mentioned, Pascal has produced elite results in the post. A lot of that is due to his lethal midrange fadeaway shot. His strength/handle combination helps to put him in the right spots and the length/size gives him a nearly unguardable release.

The threat of his drives opens up a lot of pull-up midrange looks. With Myles Turner serving in a spacing role, Spicy P was constantly matched against Milwaukee’s bigs. If they backed off, he would rise and hit the middy.

Indiana even sprinkled in pick-and-pops for his midrange attempts, some real 1980s basketball looks.

Despite the frequency and efficiency, Pascal’s midrange game is not the only way he contributes heavily to this half-court offense.

DHO/Post Usage

The usage of dribble handoffs, both as the pitcher and catcher, has been interesting to watch. The presence of those bigs guarding him serves to pull rim protection away from the paint, opening up space for drivers and for Pascal himself.

The post-ups have worked with similar efficacy. The midrange fadeaway we covered before is a go-to weapon, but Siakam won’t hesitate to seal off a mismatch and get to the rim if the opportunity presents itself.

What impressed me the most with his post usage was the playmaking. The Bucks without Giannis were forced to double him early and often, forcing him to make kickouts or layoff passes instead. Siakam was more than happy to oblige the Bucks by breaking them down with a flurry of post passes.

In this upcoming series against the Knicks, Pascal will see a healthy amount of doubles against a Tom Thibodeau defense. If his teammates can work hard to find the open space for cuts and perimeter shots, Siakam’s post playmaking will be a major point of interest. And it’s not the only area where his playmaking impact is felt.

Pinch Playmaking

Against a team willing to load up in the paint, Pascal did not get many chances for clean drives. Milwaukee would send lots of help at the nail or collapse from the weak side to prevent paint points. Siakam showed a willingness and ability to make the right kickouts from his drives to take advantage of the defense.

This upcoming matchup with the Knicks will present similar opportunities. New York will send help to force shooters to beat them, and Siakam has to be willing to kick out instead of forcing shots over Isaiah Hartenstein/Mitchell Robinson/OG Anunoby.

Another interesting element for this matchup is how often Thibodeau wants to tag rollers. He will send help from all over, including the strong corner, to force the ball out of the hands of rollers. Possessions like the following will be crucial to breaking this excellent New York defense.

Expecting him to post another 8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio is a little silly. Yet it will be important to sit around 4-5 assists per game while taking good care of the ball if Indiana has a chance. Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and TJ McConnell typically share the playmaking burden. With the sheer volume of POA defense New York possesses, Siakam will need to step up as a shot generator for his teammates in order to balance the Indiana attack.

Offensive Glass Crashing

Not only was Pascal Siakam the Pacers’ leader in offensive rebounding during the Bucks series, but he also posted the 11th-highest offensive rebounding rate of 61 qualified players in the first round. It was an impressive display of effort, positioning, and coordination to generate second chances consistently. Despite being the third-tallest player in the 8-man playoff rotation (Myles Turner and Obi Toppin both clear him), Siakam spends the most time in the paint due to the spacing of those two. They place a heavy burden on Siakam to generate these looks.

And wow, did he ever dominate the glass.

Against a Knicks team that had problems on the defensive glass against the Sixers (74.4%, 11th among playoff teams in R1) Indiana will need a similar effort to tip the scales. New York was dominant at generating second chances (32.2%, 2nd among R1 teams) and Indiana needs to narrow that gap to get a possession advantage. It’s no surprise given that the Knicks were the top offensive rebounding team in the regular season, yet they were middle of the pack in defensive rebounding rate. The Pacers need Siakam (and the whole frontcourt, really) to capitalize on that weakness.

In a series that features a bad offense vs a bad defense and an elite offense vs an elite defense, the total possessions each team can generate will likely decide many of these games. Indiana cannot afford to lose the possession battle in a major way, or else their offense will have little chance of powering a series victory.

Transition Efficiency

Against a slow Bucks team, Siakam in the open floor was murder. He showed a fantastic blend of leakouts after shot contests, attacking an unsettled defense after grabbing boards and sealing mismatches early to generate transition looks. That 1.4 PPP mark ranked in the 84th percentile among all players in the first round, and it’s easy to see why.

It’s not going to be this easy against the Knicks defense. They’re more disciplined, possess better athletes, and have a size/mobility blend that can make life difficult in the open floor. Former teammate OG Anunoby, one of the better transition defenders around, will likely see his minutes matched with Siakam to boot.

The need to generate baskets in transition is of the utmost importance in this series. Indiana generated a 90th percentile rate of transition offense in the regular season, falling to the 63rd percentile in the opening round. Conversely, New York was a 60th percentile team at preventing transition looks in the regular season, but fell to the 25th percentile against a quick Sixers squad. Siakam must press hard to attack the unsettled defense before that elite half-court Knicks defensive unit can organize.

Pascal was the key that unlocked Indiana’s offense in this first-round series. Of all 5-man lineups across the 16 playoff squads, Indiana’s top lineup (Hali/Nembhard/Nesmith/Siakam/Turner) generated the highest offensive rating at 134.2 pts per 100. That kind of figure with only one player scoring 20+ PPG is a masterclass in ball sharing and versatility of attack. It’s the other side of the floor that has me concerned.

Defensive Overview

The other side of the lineup stats are rough. That top Indiana lineup surrendered 113.3 points per 100 possessions, a 17th-percentile mark in the playoffs. There is some good in the midst of all that bad, including solid marks in turnover creation and defensive rebounding percentage. Yet they leave a lot to be desired, which is a surprise in a playoff setting considering that Nembhard, Siakam, and Turner are all above-average defensive players in my eye.

Against this Knicks team, they’ll have to avoid the easy mistakes and make a struggling offense fight for every bucket.

POA Success

Indiana switched 1-4 (even 1-5 at times) against Milwaukee, with Pascal finding himself going from guarding Khris Middleton to Damian Lillard often. He did an admirable job containing those two in my opinion. He could stick long enough to let a better switch come, got around screens for rear-view contests, and contained them when called upon.

They don’t need him to be the point-of-attack guard ace when Andrew Nembhard is on the floor, who will be seeing heavy minutes on Jalen Brunson. Myles Turner patrolling the back line gives an extra measure of confidence. Yet there will come a time when the switches happen. The length and footwork of Siakam will make life tough on Brunson and creation nigh impossible for the other perimeter players.

What’s equally impressive about Siakam is the kind of impact he can make even if the switching doesn’t pull him out to the perimeter.

Hustling in Help

Siakam has never been a traditional defensive event creator. But historically, his event creation has risen in the playoffs. His steal and block rates from the regular season to the postseason remain the same across his career, yet the percentile ranks climb higher due to the nature of playoff defense. Slower and more methodical offenses will take away opportunities to create those events, yet Pascal finds a way.

Even if not getting a steal or block, Siakam makes an impact as a rotational rim protector to affect shots and make life hard on those getting to the rim when Myles Turner is pulled away from the rim.

I was pleasantly surprised at seeing Siakam’s impact as a transition defender. He could outright erase the play or show the hustle necessary to make opponents earn it at the line.

Whether he’s on or off the ball depending on how the switch plays out, in the halfcourt or the open floor, Pascal Siakam finds a way to make an impact.

Post Defense Questions

Milwaukee had to go post-heavy in the first-round series, and Siakam was often a point of attack. Bobby Portis especially went to work often, and the results were overall great for Siakam.

Milwaukee managed to generate 1.19 PPP on these post-ups overall, a strong mark. Yet many of these came on tough jumpers or contested hooks. The numbers don’t do justice to the kind of looks Siakam forced Portis and Brook Lopez to take.

New York was not a post-up team in the regular season, even with Julius Randle. They managed a 33rd percentile post frequency and had the 2nd lowest post-up efficiency league-wide. Those numbers have only dropped in the playoffs: New York posted up a total of 9 times in their series against the Sixers. Zero came from their bigs, as OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, and Bojan Bogdanovic (who is now out for the playoffs) accounted for those nine.

It would be a surprise to see New York try to post up Siakam to any degree, if they choose to at all. Even in desperate times when the buckets dry up, smaller Knick wings going up against Pascal wouldn’t help things. But it merits keeping an eye on.

Lastly, we come to possession finishing.

Strong Rebounding

After his trade to Indiana, Siakam’s rebounding efficacy jumped in a major way. His 17.3% defensive rebounding share put him in the 91st percentile amongst forwards. That number has jumped to 18.3% in the first round and made a major impact.

This is where you could argue Indiana will need Siakam the most as a defender. New York is a punishingly good offensive rebounding team as mentioned previously. Pascal will need to put in work to end possessions, or else Indy’s suspect defense will have to get stop after stop just to get back on defense.

Playoff Outlook

Indiana will once again be scrapping as underdogs, but they face a similar task. Their high-powered offense will face a strong half-court defense. And their lackluster defense will need to compete against a shorthanded and underperforming offense. It feels like whichever team can put together sustained offensive runs will be able to wrangle this series.

Siakam is the kind of guy who can tip this in favor of the Pacers. If he can get to work against the likes of OG Anunoby and Josh Hart on the offensive end, that takes away a lot of what makes New York great. Holding his own on defense and making an impact in help to contain Jalen Brunson (in addition to keeping the non-threatening scorers in check) will be massive.

I’m foaming at the mouth in anticipation of this series. Two teams punching above their weight with young cores. A high-paced and electric offense against a grinding defense. Stars a-plenty and excellent role players (or Alfreds, as JJ Redick would call them). Let’s see what kind of impact Pascal Siakam can make to propel his team towards their first conference finals in a decade.

The post Pascal Siakam Fears No Deer appeared first on Swish Theory.

After being a lottery choice by the Boston Celtics and beginning to establish a rotation spot at the end of his sophomore season, he was dealt over the offseason to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for current Trailblazers guard Malcolm Brogdon. Not only did he have to change cities, but a particular tweet set something off inside him.

In the reactionary culture of disrespect and inhumanity that is NBA aggregation social media (led by the bright minds at Bleacher Report, in my opinion), a former lottery pick beginning to break out was boiled down to a Spongebob meme.

Nesmith took this personally, determined to make Bleacher Report look silly for the disrespect they sent his way.

As he begins his second season in Indiana, having secured a 3-year/$33M contract extension, Aaron Nesmith is far more than a paperclip and some string.

Offense Overview

Nesmith is beginning to see a defined offensive role with an up-and-coming Indiana squad. He’s the guy who occupies the corners as a shooting threat, relocates and lifts to the wings when the offense calls for it and slashes to the rim if the defense sells too hard to stop his shot. His shot chart on Cleaning the Glass reflects this development of his role:

He’s been firm from deep since arriving in Naptown: 39.3% from the corners on 168 attempts, and 36.6% on 194 attempts above the break. That’s not going to break the defense by any means. But when teams are keyed in on Tyrese Haliburton‘s on-ball creation and Buddy Hield‘s off-ball movement, a strong corner guy who can lift is an important complementary piece. Let’s look closer at how his shooting role has blossomed.

Developing Shooting Versatility

It’s important to start with the form. Nesmith has quietly turned up the speed on his shot, moving from 1 to 1.5x speed like an ADHD-laden podcast listener. This has opened up a further tree of shots he can get off as the contest arrives.

Jordan Poole is sagging slightly off Nesmith in the corner, but it’s still a tight window to get the release off before the shot contest arrives. The speed of the release works to create a more open shot that a slower gather would turn into a contested one.

He doesn’t necessarily have to hit the turbo button on ALL of his releases. When he has an extra beat to step into a shot, he knows when to take it in order to compose himself.

Beyond spotting up from the corners and the occasional spot-up wing 3, Nesmith shows a knack for when to lift and relocate, opening himself up to easier passes and making reads simpler for the ballhandlers.

The initial Myles Turner screen for Buddy Hield‘s flare gets nowhere with Jevon Carter blowing it up, so they flow into a middle dribble handoff with Nesmith in the strong corner. Drummond plays in a higher drop, meaning DeMar DeRozan will tag from the strong corner. Aaron reads this fluidly, knowing that lifting from the corner will create an easier read for Hield. If he stuck in the corner, DeRozan would have a chance of deflecting the pass. Even though the shot is missed, that is quality process from a young wing to make life easier for his cohorts.

Here’s another example below of reading his man and how to manipulate:

With Georges Niang guarding him, both Nesmith and Jalen Smith realize a little movement can go a long way. Smith comes to set the flare as the offense begins to flounder, timing it well with the Bruce Brown middle drive. Tristan Thompson, not known for being fleet of foot, is unable to get out to get a quality contest as Niang dies on the screen. Cash from the break.

I’ve also enjoyed what Nesmith’s shooting combined with his functional strength as a screener can open up for the offense. Here’s another possession taking advantage of the Georges Niang matchup, this time directly in the action:

Niang flashes on the ball to deter Haliburton and let Isaac Okoro, knowing he will get destroyed if he fully switches the screen. The good screen forces a long flash, and Nesmith fades across the top of the arc, drawing a long closeout from Niang in recovery. A nice jab step makes Georges think about the drive, opening up a clean look that he bottoms. That’s some excellent leverage of his shooting ability to accentuate the danger that Tyrese brings to the floor.

Here’s a different example of screening for Haliburton in order to test the switching of the defense. Charlotte likes switching with their smaller lineups and is also determined to deny Haliburton’s scoring. With the side cleared for the screen action, Nesmith comes to screen and fades to the corner. PJ Washington doubles early trying to help out LaMelo Ball, so Hali floats it to the corner as Mark Williams is forced into the long closeout (due to the cleared side). Nesmith has time to compose himself before splashing from the corner.

Though he doesn’t exactly have a long leash to handle on the ball, there are small glimpses of dribble threes when called for. With former Vanderbilt teammate Darius Garland trying to close him out in the corner, Aaron sees the desperation closeout coming and uses a slick dribble relocation to get himself a better shot:

Nesmith doesn’t have the most prolific midrange game (36th percentile amongst forwards last season), but he shows quality coordination and a package of moves to get there when the offense calls for it. Even if it’s just 1 shot per game on average, it serves to keep the defense guessing.

Granted, we are only 1/8th of the way through the season, but a scorching 46% mark from deep (54% corners, 38% ATB) is going to force defenses into some tough decisions. He’s exploring what he can do off movement and relocation to boot, a great sign that we are headed for a breakout perimeter scoring season. It also serves to open up what has been the most impressive part of his game:

Loud Drives

Going into this article, I really expected to see a mixed bag here. I was absolutely floored by what I saw on the tape. You rarely expect a “closeout attacking” guy to pop, but my eyes were flying at the screen like a Looney Tune.

What struck me the most was the incredible balance he shows while flying into the paint from the corners, often at full speed:

Navigating the baseline without taking charges and getting these kinds of finishes impressed me to a high degree. I couldn’t find drives where he pressed too hard or predetermined when he was going to drive either, which is a major sign. He’s quickly reading and reacting to how the defense plays his shot and choosing his spots to drive based on those reads.

That kind of selectivity was also present on non-corner drives. He knows when to press his advantage against an unsettled or subpar defender, and has enough handle to beat them:

Catching Jaylen Brown (he’s not a good defender – wake up, sheeple) flat-footed and drawing the foul is impressive. Going after Kristaps Porzingis with the rim protection drawn out and using the rim to shield a tough reverse finish is superb awareness and execution.

Nesmith’s creation off the drive (creation in general, really) doesn’t jump off the page. He has one of the lowest assist rates amongst all forwards, but there are momentary flashes of playmaking excellence based on how the defense defends his drives.

There are moments where the aggression delivers something spectacular, as you see on this corner drive:

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has leveraged this success on the drive into quick, repeatable offense for Nesmith by running dribble handoffs. Giving Aaron momentum and playing off the leverage that his shot creates has generated some very nice results so far in the young season.

Notice how the “delay” action from Jalen Smith clears a side for the handoff, putting the potential help right in front of Nesmith and allowing him to read with ease as he powers to the cup. That’s how you put things on a plate for a young potential creator.

Another instance of powering right through the perimeter dig, only this time Nesmith is presented with a much tougher task of finishing over Evan Mobley. Aaron hits him with a drag step to put the DPOY candidate behind the play and finishes high off the glass for good measure.

This part of Nesmith’s game gets me incredibly excited for his future. Being a guy who shoots well from outside and can slash from time to time already keeps you on the floor. Running a DHO now and then in addition to some strong mismatch attacks on the drive takes him to the next level of offensive utility. What can he unlock next?

Now, let’s dig into the last major area of offensive strength:

Glass Crashing

You want to talk excitement? Watch Aaron Nesmith going for an offensive rebound in a crowd.

Flying in from the perimeter, fighting through a boxout, or just flat-out wanting it more than the other guy. There are a lot of different ways that Nesmith can win on the glass.

I would be remiss if I didn’t put in this play I titled “attempted murder” in my clips folder:

If someone tried doing this to me at a 24-Hour Fitness, I would be compelled to throw hands just to regain some of my honor. Granted, I would only make a further ass out of myself, but it’s the principle of the thing.

At 6’6″, Nesmith is in the 57th percentile of forwards this season in terms of offensive rebounding. Though not on elite levels, he is usually much shorter than his counterpart, so he has to find creative ways to win. The fact that he does it at a well above-average level is nothing to sneeze at.

The top 8 lineups Indiana uses Nesmith in, according to total possessions, all involve him playing the 4. A league-average team offensive rebounding rate is roughly 27%; six of those eight Nesmith lineups clear that threshold, with the most used lineup pulling down 35% of their own misses. Obviously, there are four other guys out there helping with that number, but the common throughline is Aaron’s infectious energy and effort.

Growth Areas

Right now, Nesmith slots in as a quality off-ball wing with plenty of shooting, a splash of driving, and a strong nose for the ball on the offensive glass. At 24 years old and locked in with his team for at least the next three seasons, the question becomes what else he can add.

First and foremost, I’d like to see Nesmith add more midrange counters to his attacks. As you can see from the shot chart earlier, it’s threes, rim attempts, or nothing. Granted, those are the two most valuable shots. That doesn’t mean a midrange attempt from him would be a bad shot if attacking the closeout in front of the help defense, or making the defense pay for a deep drop on his dribble handoffs. Nesmith hasn’t been the highest-quality midrange shooter throughout his young career, especially in the shorter-range looks, but some extra repetition would be a boon. If anything, it would just make the defense think twice and open up more rim looks.

Another thing you may have noticed, concerning his finishing attempts, is that very few of them come with the left hand. This has severely limited his available tree of finishes; though he can make tough reverse finishes going around the rim or inverted finishes on the left side of the rim, it would be nice to see some development on that end. This would also enable Indiana to run some of the current DHO looks from the right wing of the floor, so he can dribble left-handed into the rim and use his left for finishes. Without it, defenses can key in on his tendencies and will have an easier time preventing his effective looks in the paint.

Lastly, I’d like to see an improved sense of playmaking from Aaron. He can create well by getting downhill and collapsing the defense, but he needs to mix in more passes on those drives. Sure, he can finish really well even with multiple defenders committed, but he tends to miss layoff passes or kickouts to the high-quality shooters on the team. That would be an extra layer to add that helps him take the next leap offensively.

Now, let’s dig into the less glamorous side of the ball.

Defensive Overview

The defensive catch-alls are tough to parse out with Nesmith. Indiana currently has the second-highest pace of any team in the league, and surrenders the second-most points per game with the fourth-worst defensive rating around. The ridiculous offense has turned them into a good team, but it makes it more difficult to figure out who is helping this defense keep things together (if you can call it that) vs. who is actively harming it.

To me, Nesmith solidly falls in the former group. Indiana concedes just north of 120 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but underneath that are some strong lineups. Three of the five most common Nesmith lineups that Indiana uses have a defensive points per 100 of 106.7 or lower; that 120 mark is being reached because of the second most common lineup, which features a Tyrese Haliburton/Bennedict Mathurin backcourt that concedes over 150 points per 100. Below is an approximation of what Hali/Benny perimeter stopping feels like.

I won’t pontificate too much on why Nesmith is better than the numbers would suggest. Let’s look deeper at the film.

On/Off Ball Event Creation

On subpar defensive teams, creating steals and blocks is a major tool to keep their heads above water. It serves both to cover for mistakes and juice the transition offense, which for Indiana is quite good. Since Nesmith’s arrival, he has been strongly above-average in defensive event creation. Last season, his steal and block rates were 63rd and 67th percentile (respectively) amongst forwards, and he is on a similar track through the start of this season, creating 2.1 defensive events per 75 possessions.

The steals are far more sustainable given his length (+6 wingspan) and overall hustle. He’s able to generate some of these simply by getting hands in passing lanes that others could not reach with his size.

Nesmith is disciplined about keeping his arms up to prevent passing windows and has quick hands to disrupt ballhandlers when the opportunity presents itself. Many of the steals are generally born out of hustle. Nesmith was highly regarded for his motor coming into the draft, and you rarely catch him with his foot off the gas pedal.

Look at the score on that clip. This kind of hustle will endear you to coaches, and make opponents resent you, which is a great spot to be in as a defender.

I also enjoyed the block creation from Nesmith. His sense of timing, verticality, and a dash of explosive athleticism have produced some defensive virtuosity.

The last possession impressed me the most. With Myles Turner switched out on the perimeter, Nesmith represents the last-ditch defense for a 5-out pick-and-roll with Paul Reed. Aaron gets himself in position at the last second for a do-or-die shot contest in the restricted area. You wouldn’t fault him for wrapping up Reed and forcing him to get points at the line in this scenario. Instead, he meets Reed at the apex with verticality to force a tougher finish and prevent the points entirely. That’s the goods right there.

There are other instances of Nesmith being a heady defender, working through switches to contain the opposition and still managing to create events:

This is a nice set by Cleveland. Caris LeVert sets the initial backscreen to force the switch from Andrew Nembhard off Darius Garland, which acts as window dressing for LeVert cutting into an empty lane. One hiccup: Nesmith reads it, peels off Garland once LeVert is committed to the roll, and packs the shot off the backboard. That’s a blend of athleticism and awareness that makes me giddy.

With Indiana struggling to form a good defense, Nesmith continuing to spin gold out of twine is going to be necessary. This is especially true with his off-ball creation, as teams will continue to attack Haliburton and Mathurin with gusto, and they need someone other than Myles Turner to clean up the mess.

Perimeter Stopping

We’ve established that Nesmith is a great vertical and straight-line athlete, but perimeter stopping takes more on the margins to really stand out. Quick feet and quicker hips are the keys that unlock a true stopper. Aaron has showcased that he has both in spades on several occasions.

On the above play, his hips are initially opened to the left anticipating a screen, but Strus rejects it in the hope that he can catch Nesmith a step late on the empty side. However, Aaron is too quick, closing down space in a split second and sticking to the drive to force a tough floater attempt. Not on his watch.

Here’s another example of those hips in action:

He’s no Shakira, but that is some quality hip movement. He does end up a step high after the second flip which gives Terry Rozier a window for the drive, but this is where the athleticism and length can make up for small positioning mistakes. That is a common theme of his perimeter game: physical tools making up for small mistakes.

He angles his hips the wrong direction on the above play against Malaki Branham, a similarly explosive athlete. But he’s able to flip himself back in the right direction after realizing the error, moving his feet well and using that off arm to force a tough attempt at the rim. Again, the benefits of having that 7-foot wingspan.

That athleticism/length combination also serves him well in trail defense. As his screen navigation is still a work in progress, he finds himself behind the play quite a bit, but has a unique ability to get himself re-involved even after being detached with a good screen:

What impressed me the most was the variety of matchups Nesmith is asked to take on. With Indiana employing lots of switching in lineups with him at the 4, he often found himself on much bigger players that could put the ball on the deck. I was surprised at how well he contained those matchups.

Though the above play ends in a foul, I still think he does a great job embracing Giannis’ physicality in order to force a tougher shot. Most wings would simply end up having a dunk land on their head, so credit where credit is due.

It generally feels like teams are figuring out “how can we beat this guy?” in a variety of ways. In this instance, Gordon Hayward tries to win by backing down Nesmith:

Look how focused Nesmith is on keeping Hayward out of the restricted area. He’s getting low to establish leverage, moving his feet to cut off angles, and using that off hand to prevent a layup while using the inside hand for further leverage. Outstanding stuff there.

This isn’t to say he is without mistakes. Nesmith is still working on his angles and how to set up initially to contain drives. It certainly gets him in trouble at times.

This is a problem that shows up often when screens are present on the handler he is trying to contain. To me, that is his biggest area of growth to work on as a perimeter stopper. He needs to work on feeling the screen coming, getting himself in the proper position to deny the easy looks, and being proactive with his screen nav instead of reactive. Anticipate, adapt, overcome. That’s the name of the game.

Now, on to the last portion of his defensive game that caught my eye.

Strength/Length Enabling Switching

We saw above how Nesmith’s functional strength and wingspan advantages help him contain bigs that can put the ball on the deck. But what happens when the bruisers of the league get him on a switch and try to back him under the basket?

You’ve probably guessed, given the tenor of this article: it doesn’t go well for the bigs.

They can clear a side, take away all the help they want, and put their biggest guy in the post on him. It doesn’t seem to matter. The low leverage he creates, combined with the aforementioned strength, means Nesmith is not easy pickings for even the most adept post-up bigs. The season is young, but players are only 2/8 when testing Aaron in the post, good for 0.73 points per possession.

But, this isn’t to say that Nesmith is perfect by all accounts. This brings us to our last section, covering both offense and defense.

Brain Farts

Nesmith is prone to some lapses in judgment on both ends. There are also some general miscues that can be tough to explain at times.

On the offensive end, Nesmith can get a little carried away at times, leading to some head-scratching turnovers.

You could have called two separate travels there in all likelihood. Talk about happy feet.

Then you have this one, where frankly I’m not sure what the plan was:

There are smaller lapses too. This one felt like an NFL receiver looking upfield before he secures the catch:

It doesn’t help that he gets behind the play by hesitating momentarily, leaving his teammate alone to handle the 2v1 fast break.

On the defensive end of the floor, Nesmith has a serious problem with pump fakes. He’s not the first or the last young perimeter defender with that issue (heck, even some of the olds still have it) but it feels like every single one works.

It’s not the worst, but it’s something to monitor as he takes on more defensive responsibility. At the pace that Indiana plays at (see what I did there?), guys are going to be flying around. He needs to learn to keep himself in check and play under more control, but without sacrificing the aggression that makes him so good.

Instances like the one below were also common. X-ing out the wing shooters is basic stuff for a wing defender, even one as young as Nesmith. He can’t afford to be consistently late in recognizing it and doing his duty:

Some of these brain farts are just funny, some are a bit more concerning. Having some lapses now and then is fine, but the out-of-control turnovers, biting on fakes constantly, and failing to X-out can be real problems. It’s something worth monitoring going forward.

Speaking of…

Future Outlook

It’s possible Nesmith never rises above the level of a strong rotation player or 4th/5th starter. But that’s more than fine considering what Indiana is paying him (roughly 7% of the cap over 3 years), and what he was acquired for.

There are two NBA misconceptions at play here. One, development isn’t linear. Some guys take a while to find it, some hit the ceiling early and continue chugging on at a certain level. It’s often very difficult to predict either.

Second, a late lottery pick turning into a rotation guy isn’t a disappointment by any means. The Pacers bought low on him in the Brogdon trade, and have seen a strong return on that investment. Even if Nesmith caps out at where he is already, that’s still a great piece to have.

This isn’t to say that Nesmith has reached his ceiling. A breakout in terms of expanded offense and true lockdown defense might be in the cards, and I am inclined to think more is coming if the shooting breakout continues. He has all of the physical tools in his bag and has shown a lot of awareness on both ends of the floor. Guys like that have very few limits and will go as far as they want to go.

Aaron Nesmith is one of the more entertaining role player watches in the league, and as the star of Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers (hopefully) continues to rise, there will be more eyes on their two-way wing. I, for one, am extremely excited to see where he goes from here.

The post Finding a Role: Aaron Nesmith appeared first on Swish Theory.

At Swish Theory we don’t like to be limited by the actual, as studying the potential is a way to a deeper understanding of the game, as well.

We asked Swish Theory contributors to represent the nine teams with best chance (all 4.5%+) to land the French 19-year-old and make the case that they are the team who deserves him, not just due to lottery odds but due to team infrastructure and Victor’s own interests.

Swish Admin and Editorial Teams then decided who answered best for each of the four questions. And finally, as there are many more prizes than Vic for a rebuilding team in this draft, who each team’s favorite fit among top draft prospects who are not named Wembanyama.

Who do you think made the best case?

Question 1:

What’s your team’s plan for fitting Victor Wembanyama into your basketball roster on day one?

Detroit (Josh A.): 

The Detroit Pistons currently have one of the strongest young cores in all of basketball with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren. Adding Victor Wembanyama to this core would likely make it the strongest in the NBA, as the overall blend of skill sets would have the opportunity to create an elite big four assuming all goes right for the team. Acquiring Wembanyama to be one of two defensive anchors alongside Duren, along with being the top scoring option on offense, sets the team up very well for the future. All four pieces of this hypothetical big four mesh very well together, which is why I believe that this core would contend for championships in the mid to late 2020s if they all stay together.

Wembanyama will step into the NBA with the largest catch radius in the sport, which makes him a direct complement to Cade Cunningham’s passing skill set. Cunningham loves throwing lob passes to his centers, which is why he had so much success with Marvin Bagley at the end of his rookie season. Giving Cunningham the player with the largest lob catch radius in the league would create an unstoppable alley-oop combination, which would be a constant and stable part of the team’s offense. This would likely lead to teams providings lots of weak side help on Wembanyama’s rolls to the basket, where Cunningham can spray skip passes to Bojan Bogdanovic and Jaden Ivey in the weakside corner and wing. These two would be able to strongly exploit these 2v1 situations, making Detroit one of the more potent offenses in the NBA from the jump.

Victor also pairs very well with Jalen Duren on defense, as the two bigs can run versatile coverages together. One can serve as the primary PNR defender while the other roams around near the basket, and I foresee Victor being the roamer in their early years together. Wembanyama frequently over-fixates on the ball-handler in pick and roll situations, which leads to open roll men more often than you would like. He is able to get away with this now due to his insane combination of length and fluidity, though this is a long term issue that Wembanyama will likely be able to fix. Once he perfects his positioning, Duren and Wembanyama can run many valuable pick and roll coverages, which would bring even more unpredictability to the team’s defense. The rim protection with the two monster shot blockers would be something to behold, and they would likely anchor elite defenses in the future due to the overall value of rim protection and scheme versatility. 

Houston (Neema):

While we are young in Houston, we are in a pivotal time in the franchise. With the hiring of Ime Udoka, as well as having upwards of $45m in cap space, there are multiple routes to success we can have this offseason, with the addition of our new superstar draft pick. The goal is to get past our youth, and build a team sustainable for success, that also amplifies the strengths of our players. 

Being able to slot Victor into our starting lineup allows for some incredible versatility. Having a big-to-big game between Victor and Alperen Sengun, arguably one of the best young centers in the league, opens up plenty for guards like Jalen Green to create on the perimeter and pressure the paint. Playing Victor at the 4, we can have him attack with Alperen playing the high post, and defensively, Victor covers the aerial space that Sengun struggles to protect. Having shooting wings like Jabari Smith, or fastbreak threats like KJ Martin and Tari Eason, Victor can play in a versatile, quick, and dynamic offense that spaces the floor and attacks open spaces. The growth of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun will only help Victor, as they’ll be able to create space for him, and help him be effective on the offensive end without expending too much energy, as his defense, along with the presence of Smith and Eason, will be the anchor for our team.

What is up in the air at the moment is how to consolidate, and who to target in free agency. With the addition of Victor, many free agents may see Houston, with a new culture, budding superstars, and a coach that gets the most out of his players, as a premier landing spot. With contracts like Kevin Porter Jr and Jae’Sean Tate’s, as well as a healthy amount of draft picks, we can make a trade to bring in another premier piece that amplifies Victor. Being able to get the most out of Victor on the court, while lessening his load to maintain his conditioning is our goal, and we have the pieces and flexibility to make it happen in Houston. 

Spurs (Tyler): 

In the case of San Antonio, there should be very little “fitting in” required. The organization is incredibly familiar with ingratiating future Hall of Fame big men into their roster and creating a plan for steady, healthy development. As reported by LJ Ellis of SpursTalk, the team has already begun preparing for the possibility of winning the lottery (https://www.spurstalk.com/spurs-preparing-for-victor-wembanyama/).

The on-court plan begins with playing Victor strictly at the four to begin his career. There is no value in rushing minutes at the five before he is physically and mentally ready to helm that task. The presence of Zach Collins, Charles Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili provide three distinct styles of front court partners who can take on more physical assignments. 

The perimeter talent on the team in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones are all incredibly complementary with essentially no avenue towards taking touches away from Victor. With over $30mm in cap room this off-season, there will be ample opportunity to add veteran guard play and wing defenders. 

This team is flush with scalable, youthful talent, cap space, and the greatest coach in the history of the sport. If you are thinking purely about basketball context, San Antonio is a better fit than meets the eye. There is competent, complementary talent at each position but are lacking a star at the center of their universe. If you want to hit the ground running, while still being the undisputed #1 scoring option, San Antonio is the place to be. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We have one of the most promising passers in the league in LaMelo Ball which makes your life a lot easier on that end. There isn’t anyone in the league who is matching your catch-radius, and LaMelo will really take advantage of this. You could become the most electrifying duo in the league pretty quickly. It’s more fitting the roster around Victor, not the other way around, and we have both major financial flexibility to act on the free agent market and a young core to complement him. Other than that, we have a variety of frontcourt options to put next to you in PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Kai Jones, or JT Thor to complement your skillset as best as possible on both ends.  

You can look at our current mismatch of talent as inconsistent, but I’d say it has Wemby-sized needs, with a versatile big defender and shotmaker as giving us just enough scheme flexibility to let Lamelo be Lamelo, with bit players all around in support. Just imagine a Lamelo/Victor pick and roll – what else do you need? Such an action would be unstoppable year 1, especially given Victor’s increased physicality in the interior. Lamelo can pinpoint Wembanyama’s unreal catch radius at creatively timed moments, and Vic can learn how to find Lamelo in his spots as well.

Blazers (Uri):

Offensively, we don’t see the need to start things slowly. We want to win and Victor’s already proven that he can be the initiator in a high-level offense at Mets 92. Hit the ground running, inverted PnRs with our electric guards (including, Damian f****** Lillard), inducing mismatches on the weak side to initiate a big-big two-man game on the inside. Vic would enhance Jusuf Nurkic’s strengths as a passer and post player while mitigating some of his weaknesses defensively. 

Off the ball, Lillard and Simons demand so much attention that running simple concepts will create a lot of space for Wemby to operate. And Vic’s already demonstrated comfort with more complex ball screen actions in France, so even if the decision-making off the short roll needs improvement, the floor for success is already established in Portland. For as much as other lottery teams have players that can be good in the future, not one of the other teams has the players with the same kind of gravity that ours do.

And on the defensive end, we might have even more fun than on offense. Chauncey is one of the most creative defensive head coaches in the NBA, all he needs is the personnel to apply his concepts. Though the offensive stuff goes viral, it’s the defense that would make things click here in Portland. We see him as a 4 early in his career next to Nurk. The weak side big, swooping in to erase shots and deter would be drivers, roving around and letting his length and instincts take over. 

Magic (RK):

Defining a role to unleash what Victor Wembanyama does best now with the freedom to develop weaknesses into strengths long-term is the primary goal. Asking Victor to impact the game immediately in three ways: Instinctual help-side rim-protection; Unreachable rim-rolling lob threat; Unblockable relocating deep range shooter. Generating clean catch-and-shoot threes is an easy offensive target to hit for such a skilled shooter with as versatile a shot profile as Wembanyama in year one. From standstill to motion threes, Victor has flashed shooting skill in every situation; the team that drafts him should test the limits of his incredible shooting ability. Pick-and-pops, Spain/Ram P&R, Stagger and Elevator Screens are sets that involve Wembanyama as the movement shooter in the action to force the defense into an impossible choice, effective counter options to the traditional pick-and-rolls and handoff sets where Victor rolls to the rim with higher vertical reach on lob threats than anyone else has ever imagined. In post-ups, the footwork, soft touch, and tough shot-making skills are already worth exploring against mismatches and sharpening the sword until every opponent becomes a mismatch.

Victor Wembanyama enters the league as one of most impactful rim-protectors and tough shot-makers the sport of basketball has ever seen. Due to his rare combination of handles, touch, and instinctual feel for the game at his height, Wembanyama’s floor is a league-ready floor-stretching rim-protector. Combining these innate traits to further develop all-around ball skills gives him one of the highest ranges of realistic potential developmental paths any prospect can hope for as an unguardable versatile on-ball scoring engine; a rim-sealing paint-protecting defensive anchor; a one-man wrecking crew on both ends. With Victor’s tough shot-making, deep shooting range, and natural rim-protection instincts being a safe bet to translate to every level of basketball, Rookie Wembanyama’s impact could range anywhere between a long-range sniper defensive anchor like Jaren Jackson Jr. to a tall shot-blocking tough shot-maker in the realm of Rookie Durant, only Victor stands five inches taller than both.

Bending defenses by attacking the paint is the best way to create open looks from deep. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz naturally create C&S 3pt opportunities by each averaging 10+ drives per game, making Orlando one of only four teams to feature three players who drive to the rack that often. Among many reasons to draft Vic, adding Wembanyama’s floor-stretching gravity to the frontcourt perfectly balances any spacing clunkyness in the starting lineup; one couldn’t dream up a better stretch-big threat for kickouts off Paolo faceups, Franz Chicago handoffs, and Fultz P&R snake-dribble drives than Wemby’s unoverthrowable shooting pocket. Life on the court can’t get much easier for Victor Wembanyama than playing off the vision, feel, and playmaking of Paolo, Fultz, Franz, and Cole Anthony, with a strong versatile defense already in place between Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac, maybe the most exciting young roster in the league ready to compete for the foreseeable future.

Pacers (Charlie):

Looking around at the teams in position to secure Wemby, you see a lot of unserious rosters and ownership groups. The top four are a mix of bad rosters, owners unwilling to spend, and terrible vibes. The Pacers aren’t historical big spenders, but have a roster that is one elite piece away from making the playoffs.

A 35-win team adding the best prospect in two decades works well for both sides. Myles Turner could provide some nice frontcourt synergy with Wembanyama, with spacing on the offensive side to allow Vic to work freely inside the arc while providing elite rim protection to lessen the overall defensive load. We’ve seen how huge Jarrett Allen has been for Evan Mobley’s development, allowing him to move between both frontcourt spots instead of playing heavy minutes at the 5.

There is also elite young guard creation present. I don’t have to tell you that a Haliburton-Wembanyama two-man game would be special to watch, but they also have Bennedict Mathurin on the rise as a prolific young wing scorer. The need for Vic to be an instant offensive impact is much lessened by the conditions of the roster. Little of the rotation next year is set in stone, but I can imagine free agents will overlook the franchise location and team pedigree for a chance to play with Tyrese Haliburton and Wemby. Overall, I think the Pacers present the best chance for Wembanyama to play winning basketball before his rookie contract is up, while not taking away from his potential development as an all-around dynamo.

Wizards (Joe):

Wes Unseld’s creativity as a play designer makes Washington one of the more intriguing fits for Wemby, even though I’d imagine many don’t want to see him there. The variety of chin and delay sets Unseld has deployed make Wemby an intriguing schematic fit. Him and Porzingis can both space the floor. There may be some small concerns they get in eachothers’ way, but I actually think Porzingis’ general unwillingness to go inside the arc could be very good for Wemby’s development. He’s going to get the majority of reps attacking inside if he lands in Washington.

Defensively, the fit is absolutely incredible. Porzingis and him could dominate with sheer size and instincts on the interior which makes things easier on the guards and wings on the roster. You could be highly experimental with coverages and this is something Unseld has shown a willingness to do. When you mesh Daniel Gafford into this big man rotation too, it’s just an incredibly effective trio on that end with size and high percentage shot types.

Jazz (AJ):

With the style in which Will Hardy coached his first season in Utah, there’s no doubt that Victor Wembanyama would be a near perfect fit on the Jazz. Hardy frequently used lineups with multiple skilled bigs on the floor at once, and was able to get the most out of them. Lauri Markkanen won the Most Improved Player award. Kelly Olynyk set a career high in assists while nearly doing the same in points. Heck, even Luka Samanic, a 6’10 former first round pick who had been in and out of the NBA, had the best stretch of his career playing for Utah at the end of the season. When you look at the success of these 3 players at various talent levels, you can only dream about what the 7’4 ultra-skilled Wemby would look like under Will Hardy. 

Playing next to a more traditional Center like Walker Kessler early on would also be a benefit for Victor. As Vic matures and puts on more muscle there will be plenty opportunity for him to play the 5 more down the line, but early on in his career saving him from having to take on matchups against physical bigs like Nikola Jokic or Steven Adams will make his transition to the NBA a lot easier and potentially help him stay on the floor more. 

Question Winner: Detroit Pistons

Honorable mention: San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets

Question 2:

How do you plan to evolve Victor’s game over the long-term on your squad? How much will you develop as an on-ball offensive shotmaker/creator vs. his off-ball skills? What’s your ideal use for him on defense?

Detroit (Josh):

When you combine Wembanyama’s generational size and length with his touch and feel for the game, you begin to realize that Wembanyama is capable of things that nobody else on the court is capable of. In order to properly develop him, I would make sure to mix in the on-ball and off-ball reps while getting him involved in many pick and rolls. Familiarizing Wembanyama with the spacing and court dynamics of NBA high post plays will be valuable for his overall development curve, as he should be able to swiftly learn how to get to his spots against the highest level of competition. There may be some growing pains along the way, but Wembanyama’s combination of pull-up touch and ability to draw contact on jumpers should make him fairly productive on these plays from the second he steps foot on the court. Using him on rolls to the basket will also be a productive form of offense from day one due to his gaudy catch radius on lobs.

Wembanyama’s combo of size and pull-up shooting will give him lots of on-ball gravity when he fully figures out scoring at the NBA level, and he should be able to progress as a passer as he sees more high post looks in the league. He could face double teams fairly early in his career, which will be good for his long run passing development. Wembanyama’s height gives him access to passing windows that some players wish they could access, as he should be able to scan the court from above and deliver high velocity passes to open teammates. Finding a balance between his on-ball scoring reps and using his off-ball gravity will be crucial for his development, and I believe that he could easily find this balance on a team like Detroit. The supporting cast around him meshes well with his skillset, as guys like Jalen Duren can lurk around the dunkers spot while Wembanyama operates from the high post, Jaden Ivey can 45 cut from the wings or curl around for downhill dribble hand-off plays, and Cade Cunningham can find angles to receive the ball and quickly move it to an open play finisher.

Houston (Neema):

With how skilled Victor is, there is no telling what route he can take to be successful. He could become a taller Durant, or a more mobile Giannis with good touch. The goal in Houston, is to increase his strength while not having him put on too much weight, to really lean into his defensive ability. His size, foot speed, and ground coverage would make him an elite roamer in a system that needs good paint protection. Having Tari and Jabari guard the strong side wings, Victor will be able to protect and deny the weak side purely on his presence, and also hide the struggles of Jalen Green and potentially James Harden, should he find his way back to Houston. With Sengun also in the paint, Victor’s ability to protect the rim will be needed, and having him help from the weak-side cuts off half the court for the offense.

Offensively, he can do whatever he wants. Victor would come in being one of the best advantage creators on the team, and probably one of the better shooters. Having him play off Sengun would give the Rockets an unstoppable big-to-big game with the new rendition of the Twin Towers (Hakeem and Ralph Sampson), or having him play two-man with Jalen Green forces teams to either allow Jalen to blow past them, or give Victor the space to get the ball up high and finish at the rim. Offensively, the options are endless, and Victor will not be held back, as we want him to blossom into a player that we can rely on on both ends of the court.

Spurs (Tyler):

Vic is a once in a lifetime talent that breaks our typical framework for archetypes and positionality on the basketball court. Is he a center? Is he a guard? Is he a 7’4 Kevin Durant? When the sky’s the limit, the only mistake you can make is aiming too low. There is no better place for Victor to spread his wings and really see what he could become than San Antonio.

Of course there is a desire to hone Vic’s off-ball scoring, easy buckets are a necessity for any star. That experience should happen through simple repetition. Basketball is a team sport, and Vic is one of the most gifted prospects in its history. Learning to best relocate on the perimeter, crash the offensive glass or attack gaps as a cutter will come with time, given you are playing in a team-oriented offense. Thankfully, that is the only way San Antonio knows how to play.

The goal for Vic is not to create some helio-centric star creator that has the ball every possession, nor is it to pair him with one. He has the touch, coordination, dribble package and high release to be the most dominant scorer in NBA history. Defensively, his ceiling as a roaming event creator is nearly just as high. We see little value in forcing him to guard true centers or defend ball screens constantly. Saving his body for the offensive end, and maximizing his help defense impact, will be paramount.  

Maximizing that growth is the goal, and the only way to do that is to throw the kitchen sink. Pin downs, DHO operation, playing out of the mid post, operating as a roll man or as a handler, attacking shorter defenders in isolation. Everything is worth trying, because everything is possible. Prospects like that don’t come along often, and an organization with the pedigree of the San Antonio Spurs will not take that opportunity lightly. 

Hornets (Dennis):

We already have a good core that will benefit from your strengths as a creator. To start off and make it a bit easier for you, we could use you in a two-man game with LaMelo and steadily increase your on-ball creation usage when you are ready for it. But in the long run, we would strongly encourage you to play a similar role like you did with Metropolitans last season because it would enable us to build our offense around you with smart offball players like Biles Mridges, James Bouknight and Terry Rozier. LaMelo is used to playing all kinds of roles, and great players like you and him normally figure stuff out on the fly pretty quickly.  

On defense, we would like you to act as both an anchor and roamer type, depending on lineups. Playing next to Mark Williams, we would like to give you reps as a roamer, for example. Most of the time, we would put you in a lineup, where you are the anchor next to PJ Washington and “Biles Mridges”, to complement you on that end. 

Mets 92 has had success by simply giving you the ball early and letting you figure it out. We want to scratch whatever your ceiling is for on-ball creation as soon as we can your rookie year, with Lamelo getting you the ball in your actions as you each learn how to play off-ball with the other. On talent alone we should make the playoffs each season, and with that cushion to experiment, Victor will develop new post and iso moves he wouldn’t be able to with other squads. We have the flexibility of timelines: the talent to win now, but youth to experiment for the future.

Blazers (Uri):

We want the ball in Wemby’s hands as early as possible. Reps, reps, reps, and more reps as an initiator. For as polished an offensive prospect he is, our main focus is developing him as a playmaker, utilizing his planetary gravity to make others better. By the end of his rookie contract, we can 1.5:1 or even a 2:1 AST:TO ratio. Several calls to one Bill Walton have already been made.

Off-ball, we see Durant. Sharp cuts and off-ball screens leading to decisive play-making opportunities in the midrange and going downhill. Yes, the shooting is of utmost importance, but in the immediate future we want to take advantage of his touch and physical specs by establishing Victor as a dominant interior presence off the switch.

Defensively, it’ll be a lot of clam chowder, maple bacon donuts, and Nong’s Khao Man Gai. Adding weight and slowly adding strength. We want to calibrate physicality and fluidity, adding muscle without detracting from what makes him such a special off-ball athlete. We’ve seen shades of the ability to absorb contact, we just need to add slightly more volume to that frame to maximize his physical gifts.

Magic (RK):

A 7’5” human being who possesses an 8’ wingspan and the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot a basketball on the move; whose shot release looks as unblockable as Durant’s; whose grab-and-go modern point-center powers ideally fill out into a downhill force only emulated by Giannis; whose defensive motor never shuts off, deterring opponents from even thinking of approaching the paint like prime Dwight, Victor Webmanayam is a living testament to the create-a-player scenarios where a mad scientist takes the best traits of basketball legends, mixes them in a lab, and creates a freestylin’ Frankenstein Monstar.

Strength-building and weight management will be vital Wembanyama’s path to success at the NBA level, molding his body’s strengths and weaknesses to keep up with the grind of an NBA schedule. Putting on too much muscle could reduce his graceful mobility; not enough weight and he’ll be pushed around the paint like a rag doll. Maybe Wemby staying on the slimmer side accentuates his proven mobile skills like Anthony Davis. Even if that reduces his effectiveness defending and scoring out of the post, maybe that’s a worthwhile tradeoff in the long run since he’ll always have the footwork and shooting touch for post moves, doesn’t necessarily specialize in post-up defense, and can focus on being otherwordly in so many other areas. If Wemby’s ideal position from day one is a natural stretch-four help-side rim-protector, Wendell’s reliable two-way play at the 5 offers a strong traditional big man to pair Vic with against bigger frontcourts. Wemby can shift over to the 5 in advantageous matchups as he rounds out into his final NBA form, perhaps opting to put on necessary muscle to bang with the biggest bodies on the low block, like Embiid and Jokic.

In Orlando, Wembanyama has the opportunity to contribute to competitive basketball right away by filling an immediate rim-protecting floor-stretching role without being overtasked with too much of a scoring load in year one. Here, Wemby has a never-ending runway to develop into an on-ball superstar scoring creator as the team has plenty of playmaking, scoring, and defensive fortitude to fill any gaps along the way. As Wembanyama becomes more comfortable scoring in different on-ball playtypes, combining footwork, soft touch, and post moves into a consistent tough shot maker in all one-on-one situations, Victor’s scoring load should increase as long as the scoring stays efficient. Contesting without fouling, creating off the dribble, and making clean rotations are potential hurdles for Wembanyama to clear at the highest level, yet the basketball world may still wind up witnessing one of the most active shot-blockers, tough shot-makers, and lethal three-point snipers to ever play the game. Someone who can literally get his shot off over anything the defense throws at him, flashing scoring ability, rim-protection instincts, and all-around ball skills never seen before in the history of the sport for someone of his height and length, Victor Wembanyama’s development paths feel endless.

Pacers (Charlie):

Defensively, I’d like to see Wemby as the true roamer. With Myles protecting the paint, a lot of the switch responsibilities should fall to Vic. He will also be sorely needed on the glass to augment Turner, who has never been a strong defensive rebounder. His presence as a helping and switch-ready 4 can help mask the deficiencies of a Haliburton/Mathurin-dominated backcourt, though Andrew Nembhard minutes certainly help out. His talents would be wasted as a full-time paint protector, and since Indiana does not have that need, the team has no impetus to put him in a less than ideal defensive position. He can be your Bam Adebayo long-term, there’s no need to ask that of him right out of the gate, even if he is fully capable.

On the offense, I think he can help Indy in a variety of ways. Myles Turner was in the 88th percentile for roll frequency amongst bigs last year, and though solid enough as a roll man he is an equal (if not better) threat as a spacing/pick-and-pop big. Vic should see an equal diet coming off ball screen actions, and has shown the ability to pop as well as he rolls. Unlike Turner, I think he should be given a long leash of self-creation off these rolls and pops. Ideally, a 25-30% share of his offense could come via self-creation early on. Encourage him to face up or attack closeouts on pops. Let him use rolls to establish post position or try to cross the lane looking for shooters/cutters. He can ideally fill a lot of the actions they could run with Sabonis in years past. A splash of 4/5 PNR with Wemby handling or inverted guard screening actions wouldn’t kill them either.

Long-term, if the Pacers intend on keeping Tyrese Haliburton for the long term, they need to place a lot of emphasis on his off-ball game to match what is already elite self-creation skill for a big of his frame/age. A strong off-ball game not only benefits Haliburton and the team, it gives Vic the opportunity to conserve energy for late-game on-ball reps when a 7’4” game-breaking shotmaker is needed.

Wizards (Joe):

Ideally I’d love to run a chin/horns/high post offense with Wemby and Porzingis being interchangeable pieces, though I’d lean towards Porzingis’ usage being more of an outside usage. Washington already has one of the more diverse and well oiled delay packages in the NBA, and I’d continue riding these with the addition of Victor. Using his gravity to get good looks for others, while deploying the likes of Corey Kispert and Bradley Beal as on the move guys, pushing for empty side actions, seems a good strategy to me.

Defensively, I’d leave Porzingis and Gafford on the interior and let Wemby cause havoc with his wingspan and general freakishness. Porzingis will generally play in drop, I’d likely deploy some of the same coverages Ty Lue uses with Zubac. By this I mean potentially ‘hiding’ him on a weaker offensive player and keeping Wemby on the ball, allowing Porzingis to be that weak side rim protector. Mostly, I’m looking to mix up coverages as much as possible.

Jazz (AJ):

To start off we would ease Victor in a mostly off-ball role, with more opportunity and chances with the ball in his hands once he looks like he’s ready for it. I actually think this year’s Lauri Markkanen is one of the closest NBA comps you can come up with in terms of the ideal usage Victor gets in his prime. Vic has more upside as a ball handler and is 4-5 inches taller, but I think the way Utah utilizes Lauri within their offense would be the blueprint for Victor down the line. He has the size/agility combo to be plenty capable creating his shot in isolation or even running occasional P&R, but he’ll be even more dangerous wreaking havoc off the ball as a cutter, ball screener, coming off curl screens, attacking the offensive glass, etc.

Defensively, we’d look to take advantage of Wemby’s generational mobility at his size by playing with another rim protector a majority of the time. This is the strategy Cleveland and Milwakuee have used around Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen and Giannis/Brook Lopez pairings that have led extremely elite defenses, and a Victor/Walker Kessler pairing has an even higher ceiling than either of those duo’s. Vic at the 4 is the ultimate cheat code in the modern NBA, as he can fly all over the floor trying to cause as much havoc as possible while still having rim protection behind him.

Question Winner: San Antonio Spurs

Honorable mention: Indiana Pacers, Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets

Question 3:

Sell me on your team’s long-term plan to not just make the playoffs but also contend?

Detroit (Josh A.):

The vision with Detroit long term goes as follows: an incredibly strong big four with complementary skill sets along with plenty of cap space currently available. Detroit made moves to acquire veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic last season, who can serve as the fifth starter for the time being. Bogdanovic provides the team with elite perimeter shooting and play finishing capabilities, and his wing scoring skill set works very well with the young core. 

Detroit also has the money to sign a strong free agent this offseason. Consider names such as Cam Johnson or P.J. Washington, both tall wing/forward hybrids with valuable skill sets. Cam Johnson is a lights out shooter and would mesh very well with the team’s young core, and P.J. Washington brings some off-ball scoring capabilities on offense with active hands and length on defense. Either player would be very helpful for the Pistons, as they both provide something that the team currently lacks: outside shooting (more so Cam Johnson than P.J. Washington). 

Houston (Neema):

Houston has been at the bottom of the barrel of the league since the departure of James Harden, and the questions about our culture are loud and obvious to the average fan. However, we are taking a turn this season, and looking to right our wrongs from previous years. The hiring of Ime Udoka, a proven coach during his time with the Celtics, will help us get the most of young, improving players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith. With $47m in cap space, we can fill the roster with solid, experienced vets to complement our youth, and bring consistency to a lineup that allows their age to show a bit too often. 

Our core 4 youth movement of the aforementioned Green, Sengun and Smith, along with Victor, will be our focus, as each player complements the other on both ends of the court. While it may be a tough year or two to start, we are tired of losing in Houston, and will stop at nothing to get back to our winning ways that made us the 3rd winningest franchise between 2000 and 2020. Developing our youth, adding vets who can get the team right both on and off the court, and hiring personnel that will get the most out of our players, is our goal these next few years, and with Victor, we will only reach that goal faster.

Spurs (Tyler):

The San Antonio Spurs were in perpetual title contention for nearly two full decades, surrounding Tim Duncan with a bevy of different playstyles and roster constructions tailored to their franchise cornerstone. 

Building a contender is about building a cohesive roster with scalable, defensive minded talent. Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins offer a foundation of competitive and complementary talent that will be easily built out over time. Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham and Tre Jones will help in creating easier looks for Vic through a combination of floor spacing and steady-handed pick and roll play. 

Most importantly, the Spurs are asset-rich with nothing tied down. We currently own all of our future first round picks with the rights to future firsts from Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto, and twice from Atlanta. Building chemistry throughout a roster is important and finding the right context to grow with is a fickle task. Some of those pieces are already in place with the assets needed to make a big move when the time is right. 

Maintaining flexibility is the primary goal, as it is with any long-term enterprise. Things will go wrong along the way, flaws will be addressed. We have the future draft capital, prospects and cap space to address any speed bump along Vic’s journey to the NBA’s Mount Rushmore.

Hornets (Dennis):

This team is going to have a fresh start under new ownership with you as the franchise cornerstone. With you, LaMelo and the young core, we are just missing 1–2 pieces to make a deep run in the east in the foreseeable future. As I said before, we have pretty clean books from a roster building perspective, as well as a talented core to set up the future. The primary goal is developing the young core and adding additional pieces in free agency. We aren’t a free agent destination, but the chance to play alongside you and LaMelo could change that to an extent. 

It’s well known among coaches and front office staff around the league that Charlotte is among the league’s lowest spenders and I expect that to change under the new ownership group. We will turn every stone around and are looking to improve the franchise as a whole. 

Blazers (Uri):

Look at Lebron’s first stint with the Cavs and Luka with the Mavs. Conversely, look at the Tim Duncan situation when he was drafted number one by a Spurs team that already had HoFer David Robinson. Teams that take on a star rookie without the assets around him to build a competitive ballclub tend to whither under the pressure of that ticking clock. Any team with Damian Lillard and our amount of perimeter scoring will compete for the playoffs. In terms of contention, we know our roster needs improving, but we have more tools and a much more malleable squad than others would have you to believe. 

This offseason, we have two trade exceptions totalling $10.5 million, the full Non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2m), and the full bi-annual exception ($4.5m). Not to mention our current cap progressions don’t really tell the story of our books. Jerami Grant is a free agent, Cam Reddish is a sign-and-trade waiting to happen, and the only cap hold we 100% know we’re interested in resigning is Matisse Thybulle (not to mention the not-so-secret secret that we can always hit eject on Simons along with our trade exceptions to bring in an even more impactful player). We’re in a position to win around the edges, and with how wide open the West is, we’re the only team that can feasibly compete for a deep playoff run while Wemby’s still on his rookie deal.

Magic (RK):

Thanks to the team-building process of front office execs Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, Orlando has sought out, targeted, and recruited good all-around basketball players who look for the open man, make the best decision for the team, and play hard on both ends. Behind the dual-wielding 6’10” drive-and-kick scoring hub on the wing in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, the steady hand of pace-pushing playmaking point guards in Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, the strong sturdy 3&D play of Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, the explosive energy of a second unit led by Jalen Suggs and the intriguing lengthy upside of Bol Bol and Jonathan Isaac, Orlando may already have the brightest young core in the NBA full of two-way team-first connector prospects at every position.

This season, Orlando made the 3rd biggest leap in wins, racking up 12 more W’s than the year before. After a 5-16 start without their starting point, Markelle Fultz returned to the lineup, playing in every game since. Over the next 58 games with Fultz at the helm, the Magic posted a .500 record, ranking 7th in overall Defense by D-RTG and 6th in drawing fouls as a team via FT Rate. The Magic being so proficient in paint touches, drives, and drawing fouls between the creation of 3+ players all under 25 years old are bright red flashing lights signaling a sustainable scoring system. Orlando’s length, energy, and rotations already doing the little things necessary to rank highly as an elite defense when the roster is relatively healthy is a positive sign that player-favorite Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s message to play hard and hustle every play is hitting home.

The biggest magic trick Orlando pulled off this season is putting out the team’s most watchable product on the floor in a decade, with non-stop competitive energy and an open up-and-down style of play, competing for a playoff spot up until the final week, all while maintaining one more shot in the lottery before “being too good to be bad”. The Magic somehow entertained fans for the full season while ending up with the 6th-best overall lottery odds and a 9% chance at winning the lottery outright for the draft rights to the most dynamic rim-protecting and tough shot-making scoring prospect the sport has seen since Kevin Durant, if not ever. Orlando has enough depth of competitive young talent to project a perennial playoff team going forward no matter who the team drafts this summer, with possibly two lottery picks on the way, and the cap flexibility to pursue at least one max-salary star in free agency. Imagining the overwhelming length, defensive impact, and scoring versatility in a lineup featuring Fultz, Franz, Paolo, Wembanyama and Isaac, Suggs, Cole, or Wendell is scary to think about.

Pacers (Charlie):

If you are adding the approximately 4-year/$42M deal that Vic gets to the salary sheet, the Pacers will be guaranteed paying 5 total players in 2024: Tyrese, Vic, Myles, Mathurin, and Andrew Nembhard. Assuming Haliburton is paid the rookie max a la Ja Morant, they’re looking at a roughly 5-year, $200M commitment. That leaves them paying roughly $75M for the core of the roster after this season, one in which they could probably still make some noise with Buddy Hield in the fold and some decent role guys.

Indiana can decline options on Daniel Theis, Isaiah Jackson, and Chris Duarte worth a total of 19.9M to end up with nearly $50M in cap space, more than enough to add a max contract to the fold. With the 26th, 29th, and a couple of seconds in this year’s draft, it’s reasonable to say the Pacers will add 1-2 more potential cheap young contributors, who can fill in at the margins or form part of a trade package. Extensions loom large as ever, but the 2024 free-agent class is loaded with All-Star caliber wings that Indiana can take a stab at. We saw with the DeAndre Ayton RFA offer that the front office is at least somewhat serious about spending to capitalize on their young talent.

The Pacers could maneuver their way into contention by 2026, when Wembanyama will be extension ready, by capitalizing on the draft this year and making shrewd decisions to try and land the big fish in the 2024 offseason. Even if they don’t, $40-50M spent on the right role players to augment a Haliburton/Wemby/Turner core could make them a tough matchup in the East. If signings or later draft picks break their way, who’s to say this isn’t the right time for the Pacers?

Wizards (Joe):

The elephant in the room is the Bradley Beal contract, it’s untradeable. He however is still pretty good and I think in the short-term, a playoff series win isn’t off the table. It may sound crazy, but the sheer size of the lineup with Kuzma, Wemby and Porzingis is going to be very unique in the Western Conference. Add that to the fact the likes of Delon Wright and Corey Kispert are pretty scalable and easy-fitting, pushing for playoff relevance isn’t completely ouf of the question.

Down the line, being aggressive in trades and playing the margins is a pivotal part of the process.

Jazz (AJ):

I think Victor’s rookie season we would likely make the postseason just off sheer talent, but it would largely be a feel it out year to see what type of roster and personnel fit the best around Vic. Is the gigantic Lauri/Victor/Kessler front court tenable long term? If not, which one out of Lauri or Kessler is the better fit and which one should look to be traded? Does Vic need a strong playmaker next to him to thrive, or can he be just as productive with a scoring PG like Colin Sexton? 

These are the type of questions we’d be focused on answering in Victor’s rookie season. Then from there, we can execute getting the correct players around him using Utah’s massive collection of assets. Between the approximately 14 first round picks the Jazz own from now to 2029 in addition to good/young players on attractive contracts (Sexton, Ochai Agbaji, Lauri, Kessler) we’d have plenty of assets to build the ideal supporting cast to supplement Victor and whoever we want to keep in the core next to him. 

Question Winner: Orlando Magic

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers

Question 4:

How do you see me fitting into your franchise off the court? What can you offer that others cannot?

Detroit (Josh):

Detroit is often looked down upon by NBA fans, but the city and franchise has a distinct long-term culture that Wembanyama could fit into. The team has always been known as a “take care of business” type of franchise, as teams like the Bad Boys and the mid 2000s Pistons were always some of the hardest working teams in the league. Young players like Cade Cunningham have publicly adopted this mindset, and Wembanyama could be next in line to fit into the team’s culture. Basketball is in a good place when the Motor City is fighting for the top, and a generational talent like Victor Wembanyama could propel the core to contention within his first few years with the team.

Houston (Neema):

*Cue Tops Drop by Fat Pat*

No city in the bottom of the lottery has more culture than Houston. Let’s start with the most diverse city in the United States. Candy paint lowriders, taquerias on every corner, a beautiful skyline, and a city that loves every athlete that walks through the door. In the heart of Houston, you will find yourself a home that not only accepts you, but wants you to become part of the culture. 

Do you miss France? French is the 6th most spoken language in Houston, with plenty of french restaurants scattering the city, and you can catch a direct flight to Paris whenever you like. Like the beach? Take a drive down to Galveston, or a joyride to South Padre over the weekend. Want the big city feel, but like your space? Houston is the 4th most populated city in the US, while also being #1 in area, so there’s nothing but space for you. More of a party guy? Welcome to the strip club capital of the United States. Big fan of outer space? Check out Space Center Houston, and see yourself among the stars. Like rap music? Find yourself hanging out with legends like Bun B, Slim Thug and Maxo Kream as they are a huge part of the culture in Houston. And don’t forget the best part: NO. STATE. TAX. The millions you’ll be making will go straight to your pocket, giving little to the government to mooch off of you, as you find yourself making more and more money in the best city in Texas.

Not to mention our long standing history of elite bigs, Houston is THE home for big men. With players like Moses Malone, Ralph Sampson, Yao Ming, Dwight Howard, and the legend Hakeem Olajuwon walking through the city, Victor Wembanyama will see his name hung up with some of the best bigs in NBA history. Everything is bigger down here, and adding a 7’5” superstar only proves that fact. 

Spurs (Tyler):

The question is this Victor, what kind of star do you want to be?

The city of San Antonio, and as a result the Spurs organization, is built on a singular foundation: family. This is a city proud of its culture and unchanging in its values. San Antonio is the largest city in America to be predominantly hispanic and you feel that everywhere you look. This is the Mexican-American city. 

I would imagine the folks in Houston told you they have great tacos.

Forgive them. They know not of what they speak.

San Antonio is a place where you will be beloved the moment you walk through the door, but more than that you will be respected. This isn’t some glitzy city concerned with celebrity or fame, you will have the freedom to live as normal of a life as you want. This is an educated basketball fanbase that understands the price of excellence. If you show up, they will love you until the end of time.

The question is not whether the city will turn on you when times get tough, it is the number of murals you would like to be made in your honor. 7? 13? 23? We’ll make it happen. 

The truth is, you will be an earth-shattering star wherever you go, your city will not determine that. If your goal is to become an actor, it might not be a great fit. If your aims are something higher than mere celebrity, but rather excellence and sustainability, there is no better place. Building a dynasty takes a remarkable amount of support and no other city knows better, we’ve done it before. La familia isn’t going anywhere, thick or thin. You won’t find that anywhere else. 

Hornets (Dennis):

I’m sure you’ve already spoken with Tony *Parker* our Nic *Batum* about our franchise and what the city has to offer. You can become the face of the city and Charlotte Hornets basketball pretty quickly.

Want to be the next goat? Consult with the current one. Want to hang out at one of our thousands of breweries to debrief from a tough-fought game? We got you. Hikes? Beaches? We’ll remind you of the French countryside if you let us (and squint).

Blazers (Uri):

We know there’s nothing Vic likes to do more after a long day of eviscerating the competition than curling up with a good book. Few places are better to call home than the PNW. With the tip-tap of rain on the roof, beautiful forests, and the silhouette of mountains in the background? Are you kidding me? Sounds like heaven. But, if he wants to hit the town in search of fine art, underground jazz music, or a refreshing seasonal IPA (in a coupla years), Portland has all of that and then some.

There’s just something about Portland and Vic that feels kindred. Portland is a multicultural urban hub in a quiet, beautiful state. Wemby’s the best prospect since Lebron but by all accounts is more of a gentle giant (off the court) than a Shaq. While the media circus will follow Vic wherever he goes, the opportunity to return to Portland and be the friendly neighborhood Wemby will do wonders to calm the immense pressure placed on him to start his career.

Ultimately, with a recent change in ownership, head coach, and GM, we see Victor as a sign of the times in Portland. Bringing in Vic as the totem that times they are a’changing for our franchise. He stabilizes things off the court as much as he does on it. For as much as the fan base will love him wherever he goes, he’ll always be compared to Hakeem in Houston, Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Zeke in Detroit, or Reggie in Indiana. With all the newness in Portland, he’ll have a chance to really grow along with the team as he helps define the Golden Era of Blazers basketball.

Magic (RK):

Sunshine and sunshowers. Freshly squeezed orange juice. No state income tax. Ever hear of the most magical place on earth? Orlando has warmer weather and more access to things to do than most NBA cities. Players make millions extra in salary by saving on income tax. The city is an hour drive to some of the most heavenly beaches on the planet, while being far enough inland to generally be safe from storms on the coast.

Between Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, and Paolo Banchero, Orlando only knows how to drop hits with the number one overall pick, even trading for Penny Hardaway the one year they shipped the pick out. (Chris Webber) Magic fans who have been loyal through the last decade that national media members treat as a laughing stock are die-hard supporters, yet none of the off-court drama exists here compared to larger market fan bases with media outlets adding unnecessary pressure or being overly negative. There isn’t a spotlight on every failure in Orlando compared to L.A. or Phili. Players have the freedom to make mistakes here and learn from them with long-term positive support to develop freely.

From upscale bars and nice restaurants to dive bars and sketchy clubs, Orlando offers a downtown atmosphere with suburban options, filled with museums, lake walks and theme parks as far as the eye can see. There’s always something going on twenty minutes away whether you’re raising a family or living single going out on the town. Be a tourist one day, a local bar-hopper the next day, and a beach bum the day after that. Live whatever life you want here. There’s a reason the first thing players say after winning the championship is “I’m going to Disney World.”

Pacers (Charlie):

Indiana is the basketball state. It doesn’t have the glamour of New York or LA, or the up-and-coming appeal of other NBA cities, but the culture surrounding the game is as good as you can hope to get. If he’s an outdoorsy kind of guy, they have some nice lakes. If he’s a city guy, Indianapolis is indeed a city, and Chicago is also close by. It’s not as appealing as the on-court fit, but he will have options for what kind of lifestyle he wants to live, whether he chooses intense urban sprawl or open skies.

Wizards (Joe):

Victor is an intelligent guy, and he knows that coming to DC would help elevate his profile not just as a basketball player but as an ambassador for the sport at the US capitol. It’s a short trip to the White House when we win the championship, and will give you plenty of avenues for expanding your brand however you’d want, in a central, big market location. Can any of the other teams in the lottery offer you that? I don’t think so.

We have been dreaming of a star of your caliber to arrive to tap into our basketball culture as a city, with grassroots hoops all around as well as front row season tickets to the Mystics. We’re a quick trip up or down the coast to whatever vacation location you desire, and as quick as you’ll find of a commute back to France. Make DC what you want of it!

Jazz (AJ):

One of the benefits of the Jazz organization is we’ve had a lot of success with foreign players and keeping them happy in recent history. The best player on the team currently is the Finnish Lauri Markkanen, and before him Rudy Gobert, who you know personally, was one of the most iconic Jazz players in franchise history and embraced by the fan base. Outside of basketball Salt Lake City might not be the most exciting or action packed NBA city, but the state of Utah is beautiful and there’s something to be said for a lack of distractions off the court. 

Question Winner: Houston Rockets

Honorable mention: Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs

Question 5:

Give me a player besides Vic in the projected top of draft who you think would be an excellent fit on your team in the case of missing on him?

Detroit (Josh):

If the Pistons are not lucky enough to walk away from the draft with Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson would obviously be the player the team should take if they end up with the second overall pick. Lots of Pistons fans scoff at the idea of running three guards together, but I believe that the offensive potential that a trio of Cunningham, Henderson, and Ivey has is unquantifiable. The halfcourt offense would be strong, as the team would then have three players who can create an advantage and send the defense into a scramble. The core also has the requisite blend of feel and athleticism to take advantage of these scrambling defenses, as all of these players project to be good cutters with different tools to punish the opposing defense. Guard to guard hand-off plays would be incredibly effective with this core as well, as allowing one of Henderson or Ivey to get downhill with Cade Cunningham finding open pockets in the defense seems like an absolute nightmare to guard.

The transition offense would be elite with this trio as well, as Cunningham can loft outlet passes with quarterback-esque ball placement to either Jaden Ivey or Scoot Henderson. Both of these players are elite open court athletes, and countering both of them with a head of steam feels like an impossible task for opposing transition defenders. This team should be able to run the court all game long, controlling the game’s tempo and making up for many defensive concerns.

Speaking of defense, this is where lots of Pistons fans become uncomfortable with Henderson’s fit into the team’s current core. I personally believe that the defense would be fine if the team prioritizes acquiring more rim protection from their power forward spot, as the team possesses a true anchor in Jalen Duren. Scoot Henderson also projects to be a positive guard defender due to his insane combination of strength and lateral quickness, though he currently has a ways to go as an off-ball defender. With the ball-handling duties being split among three players, all three will likely be able to fully buy-in on the defensive end of the court, and with Jalen Duren anchoring the unit, the team should be a functional half court defense with the upside to surprise some people on that end.

Houston (Neema):

If you read my previous answers, you’ll notice a huge lack of point guards being talked about. While Houston has some great pieces at the 2-5 positions, having Kevin Porter Jr play point guard has not worked out, and the team should be looking elsewhere. Luckily, this draft also has one of the best point guard prospects in the last decade. Scoot Henderson from G League Ignite, while having a slower year than many anticipated, is still clearly the 2nd best prospect in the class behind Victor, and would be a huge relief to the Rockets, who struggled to have any kind of offensive creation last season outside of Sengun. 

Having a true point guard who can play both on and off-ball, and create an athletic backcourt with Jalen Green would help push the Rockets from a poor decision-making young team, to a dynamic, young squad that can punch you in the mouth off tip every game. Scoot, while not being AS impactful as Victor long term, does still fill in a huge hole for the Rockets, and brings a level of athleticism, decision-making and skill at the 1 position that the team is missing. 

Spurs (Tyler):

I have spent the last 6 months with five simple words etched into my brain, permeating nearly every waking thought I have.

Amen Thompson is a Spur.

Victor Wembanyama is far and away the top prospect in the class, that is undisputed, but Amen Thompson is the best fit considering their existing team needs.

The San Antonio Spurs were far and away the worst team in the NBA at maintaining and creating advantages last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. 

The patented hum from Spurs offenses past began with one thing: rim pressure. Without it, there was no drive to kick start the drive and kick offense. 

Amen Thompson is the preeminent rim pressure threat of this class and potentially of the decade, apparating past defenders on the perimeter at the drop of a hat. The Spurs roster is littered with excellent spacing and dependent scoring in Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Malaki Branham, Doug McDermott and Zach Collins. Amen will have more than enough space to make his magic happen, and with his very presence the Spurs would finally, once again make sense.

Amen Thompson could be the next great Spurs point guard, following in the lighting-quick first steps of Tony Parker, but this time with the positional size and maddening creative genius that allowed Manu Ginobili to steal the heart of an entire city. That possibility alone is worth the price of admission.

Amen Thompson is a Spur. I feel it in my bones. 

Hornets (Dennis):

LaMelo’s size and skillset would allow us to make everyone of the top prospects fit, but Amen Thompson would be a mesmerizing match with him. We could become one of the most lethal teams in transition with both Amen’s and LaMelo’s ability to throw mind-boggling outlet passes and run the floor hard on every opportunity. Both also would complement each other really well as tall ball handlers with superb passing ability and high level of feel on the basketball court. I would expect them to build a similar bond as a passing duo as Amen’s with his twin brother, but with Amen more often on the receiving end of the pass. He is the best overall athlete in the draft and probably a top 5 athlete by the time he steps on the floor and in most draft years would have a strong argument to be the number one prospect of the draft. 

Blazers (Uri):

Great question, our situation is a bit different from those of our lottery companions. We have perimeter scoring, but our roster needs balance. We see Jarace Walker as a really strong fit alongside our current squad. We have enough on-ball guards, what we need is a culture establishing bulldog with positional versatility. He fits both of our needs and wants, adding high level lottery talent as well as filling the needs with a two-way wing. We love his defensive ceiling and offensive floor and see him as a 15 year NBA player for a successful ballclub. 

Magic (RK):

Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin brother, could be a great fit to grow with Orlando. The Thompson Twins played for Pine Crest in Florida during high school before playing in Overtime Elite; while some scouts recently bring up doubts due to competition levels, we can’t ignore god given talent, natural abilities, and hard work. Amen and Ausar are two high flying guards who have the first step, burst, body and ball control to explode at the rim at will, creating paint touches with ease, with the finishing touch at the rim helping to create a realistic development paths going forward as downhill scoring forces with tough shot-making abilities. Elite athleticism, footwork, and timing helps the twins bring high-level defensive impact.

While Amen rightfully receives praise for blurring coast-to-coast highlights, Ausar has flashed more of a C&S 3pt shot diet and defensive activity through their early careers. Amen ranked 3rd in blocks in Overtime Elite’s season with 33; Ausar nearly doubled that total with 60 blocks to lead all players. In a three season sample at Pine Crest, Amen shot 28.9% 3P% (45/156 3PA) from downtown while Ausar attempted more than twice as many on similar efficiency at 30% 3P%. (111/370 3PA) From the free throw line, one demarcation for future scoring development, Amen shot 62.5% (267/427 FTA) while Ausar shot nearly 10% better on similar volume at 71.3% FT%. (263/369 FTA)

Both twins deserve to be high lottery picks, with Amen in rumors as high as 2nd overall. While Amen could swiftly become a north-south force star and household name, Ausar could quickly fill an off-ball 3&D role locking down the other team’s best perimeter player at point of attack on one end while attacking closeouts off the creation of others like Paolo, Franz, and Fultz on the other end while maintaining similar exciting upside as his brother. With development of tight handles, versatile shooting profile, and tough shot-making, all the skills could come together for Ausar to take a high two-way floor and develop into a dynamic on-ball scoring option.

Pacers (Charlie):

Though it’s tempting to say Amen Thompson, as he would be the ideal backcourt mate for Tyrese, I want to be realistic about draft spot. But his brother Ausar might fall right in their range.

Indiana is lacking scoring juice on the wings outside of Ben Mathurin, so Brandon Miller feels like a logical fit, but I’d like to see Indiana add more playmaking to the perimeter along with potentially elite defense and some scoring chops. Ausar feels primed to step into a Lonzo Ball-type role as a strong ballhandler and elite second-side attacker with connective passing chops and the potential for a solid catch-and-shoot game. He can also take the hardest defensive matchups off Haliburton and Mathurin’s plate, and the energy he expels on that end will be countered by the load that Hali/Eggs Benny can shoulder on the other end.

I can’t think of a better balance of scoring on and off ball, playmaking, and defensive potential in a three-man group of young prospects. That’s the kind of talent that could put Indiana back on the basketball map, even without Wembanyama

Wizards (Joe):

We like Bradley Beal playing off of versatile defenders who can shoot, and if Wemby is a miss, why not swing on Taylor Hendricks in the top 10. Hendricks has shown promise as a shotmaker (40% on 4.6 threes per game) and a stocks-maker (1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals per game) and we like his upside as someone who can also play day 1 with his athleticism.

Hendricks can shadow Porzingis as a rangy scorer/shotblocker, while also developing unique chemistry with wing of the future Deni Avdija. Hendricks’ biggest weakness is likely lacking the highest level of feel for positioning, where Deni can make up for his weaknesses with sharp passing, step-ahead rotations.

For fringe playoff teams, athleticism, shooting and defense can only help. All that while keeping star upside? Sign me up.

Jazz (AJ):

The easy answer to this is Scoot Henderson. Even without Vic, we have quite a bit of talent and versatility in the front court, and based off the 2nd half of his rookie season Ochai Agbaji is gonna be a fixture in our wing rotation for years to come. The biggest issue by far with our core right now is the lack of a top tier primary ball handler; and while Colin Sexton and Talen-Horton Tucker are both getting better and each have a genuinely elite trait to build upon, it’s clear that neither is close to rivaling Scoot Henderson as a long term prospect.

Outside of being a little light on perimeter defense, a Scoot/Agbaji/Lauri/Kessler checks virtually every box and we’d have plenty of assets left to invest in another 2-way wing to supplement this core. Amen Thompson or Anthony Black would also be great fits as potential NBA lead guards, but there’s no doubt that Scoot Henderson’s playstyle and star power would give our core the best possible chance at contending out of any player in this draft not named Victor.

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