So how did a 6’9″ undersized center with two surgically repaired hips become one of the most impactful rebounders in basketball?

Enter the Loon God.

Positioning

“Thus the expert in battle moves the enemy, and is not moved by him.” -Sun Tzu, The Art of War

“Not moved by him” can certainly describe Looney’s positioning on the boards; the same cannot be said for the man he is trying to box out.

Let’s move from the most basic positioning until we get into the real diabolical stuff. For starters, if you are on the edge of the paint, expect Loon to throw an arm across your chest just in case:

It may seem like nothing, but it’s a simple deterrent: if you try to crash the glass, I WILL get physical with you. In other words:

However, if Looney is the one going for the offensive rebound, you’ll need more than just a light hand to deter him. In the clip below, James Harden tries that same method before realizing he’s getting a lot more to handle than he bargained for.

Notice how hard he tries (and how low he gets) just to maintain that inside positioning. That left arm stays in Harden’s chest until the ball comes off the rim, and he tips up with ease.

His commitment to staying on the inside at both ends of the floor is incredible. It requires attention to detail and effort (both of which will be explored more in-depth later), two things he has in spades. I love this possession where he boxes out Walker Kessler. After the arm strategy fails, he uses his hips to push Kessler back to the outside and secure the paint.

Not only is Looney very good at the simple boxout and positioning moves, but he also has an advanced understanding of angles and how to manipulate them. In the below play, Loon reads the layup and decides to wall off the strong side of the rim from Jakob Poeltl. He’s playing the numbers, assuming that a miss will come off the front or at the strong side, and the gamble pays off.

Not only is he smart about putting himself in a good 1v1 boxout position, but he also knows how to seal for others. Notice below where the majority of his teammates are and how it affects where he pushes Mitchell Robinson.

Just for safekeeping, he tips it out into the yellow and gold sea of jerseys to ensure Robinson cannot wrestle it away.

Kevon is also sound at knowing when to push his man under the rim. The concept is very simple: a missed shot is not going to wind up underneath the rim, so put your man there if they manage to win inside positioning. He’s quite prolific at blowing people off their spots to do so.

Again, he’s controlling angles and playing the numbers. He’s not deterred if denied inside positioning. It can always be used to his advantage.

Plus, if you’re a guard, he’s just going to shove you into the dirt like a middle school bully who hit an early growth spurt:

Brunson does an admirable job of trying to get low with inside positioning. Kevon is not going to be moved that easily.

With how good Looney is at establishing inside position, players are going to throw all manners of counters at him to get back to that position. Watch where he tries to direct Bruno Fernando after a well-executed swim move:

Hip-on-hip contact, working for the lower position, and tangling arms: he checks all the boxes necessary to be a deterrent. It takes Fernando out of the play just long enough to secure a victory on the glass.

A last important factor in positioning: not compromising it once achieved. Loon knows how to avoid losing his rebound positioning for unlikely blocks, but can still contest shots. Pump fakes rarely throw him off his game to boot.

Positioning is a significant factor on the glass. Positioning without technique, however, is almost worthless. Let’s look closer at how Kevon has mastered the technical aspects of the board wars.

Technique

“Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy’s will to be imposed on him.” -Sun Tzu, The Art of War

There may be only one person in the world with better hip usage than Kevon Looney. And unlike Shakira, Kevon Looney (probably) pays his taxes.

Technique in rebounding, outside of being in the right spot, comes down to leverage and making your opponent uncomfortable. In other words, Sun Tzu’s words to be exact, impose your will on the enemy. And boy does Kevon know how to impose his will using his hips.

Look at how much lower his hips are than his counterpart in each clip. These aren’t slouch rebounders either; all three of DeAndre Ayton, Jakob Poeltl, and Domantas Sabonis placed in the top 20 in total boards per game with Sabonis pacing the league in glasswork. Yet all three were physically outclassed by a smaller player. The low man always wins.

Though the below clip falls more under the category of a shot contest, it still points to his mastery of hip usage to throw opposing centers off. He practically contests this Alperen Sengün attempt with his hips as much as his hands. It serves the dual purpose of also setting him up to collect the board.

This hip leverage is only half the battle, however, and the above clip forms a good segue. Hips and hands must move in concert. It’s the flamenco of basketball.

Notice how he is constantly changing hands when the player moves from one side of his back to another. As we discussed earlier, he gets that first hand out early as an initial deterrent but continues to use them once the player has committed to fighting for the board. Sengün gets upset in the second clip for how high his arm gets, and understandably so. This is another consistent theme in Kevon’s rebounding tape: force the refs to make a call, and walk that line of a loose-ball foul. Ultimately, you will trade 1-2 loose ball fouls per game for rebounding dominance.

A last technical aspect of Kevon’s rebounding that I greatly appreciate is his swim move. When being boxed out on the offensive glass, especially when by a smaller player, a well-timed swim move is the easiest way to put yourself back in a strong position. But it’s far more difficult than it looks.

The release needs to be strong enough to shed the other player, but not so strong that it looks like you “pulled the chair”. You have to use your hands to make it work; outright throwing the player aside will get you called for a foul. And you must time it right. Swimming too early gives them time to reposition, and swimming too late could mean the ball is already in someone else’s hands.

I’m a sucker for seeing technical mastery on display in basketball. If you watch Kevon Looney on the boards, that’s all you will see. He’s not crashing the boards; that implies a kind of reckless violence to the act. He seduces the boards.

Effort

“If you fight with all your might, there is a chance of life; whereas death is certain if you cling to your corner” -Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Kevon Looney certainly does not cling to his corner. He will put himself out there, making several efforts while not conceding an inch if it can be helped. His work to not get put off of his spots is the standard for rebounders as far as I’m concerned:

I salute the smaller players like PJ Tucker and Saddiq Bey trying to force Kevon off his spot. You can put two hands between the numbers and extend, yet he maintains his balance somehow. Throw your whole body into his chest, he will contort over the top and snag the rebound right in front of your face.

Entrenched in his spots, this brings the multiple efforts into the picture. You’re not going to get away with beating him on the first effort and expecting the rebound to fall in your lap. He’s going to grab, poke, swipe at, and tip away the ball endlessly until he or a teammate has secured it.

Even if out of the play initially, he will throw himself wildly back into it just for the chance at tipping a board away:

Another important factor in his effort is knowing how to make sure a good end result is produced. He sticks with the ball, having a great sense of when he has a window to tip it up himself:

Of course, I’d be remiss if I mentioned his tip drill putbacks without showing his statue-building game-winner against the Hawks in January:

Not only does Looney know when he has a chance to get the putback himself; he can rule out the possibility in an instant, and look to find teammates on the perimeter or cutting toward the basket.

This would be a valuable trait in any offensive system. It carries extra weight on a Warriors team full of prolific cutters and even better shooters. That extra split second he doesn’t need to take in turning and finding a pass can mean an open layup or uncontested three by Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson. All of that is borne out of Kevon’s excellent sense of effort mixed with timing, our last skill factor to discuss.

Timing

“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.” -Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Though not quite like a thunderbolt, Kevon’s planning is often impenetrable to prediction by his opponents. His innate sense of timing and internal clock would make George Michael Bluth jealous.

Watch the below clip and pause when he starts to load up his jump. Notice how quickly Anthony Davis can get back up for a second jump off the ground; Looney does not have that luxury (double labrum repairs, remember?). He has to jump at the exact right moment to make this tip work, and does just that:

It’s pretty crazy how often he collects his rebound at the absolute highest point he can reach. Knowing how long it takes you to reach that point and when to make the jump cannot be taught. That’s just an incredible level of learned skill over the years of dominance on the glass.

His timing also extends to knowing when to crash. Looney is much like a wizard: he arrives neither early nor late, but precisely when he means to. It jumps off the screen when watching his tape:

That impeccable sense also shows up when going for his own misses. Loon knows just where his own shots are going, and picks the quickest path to intercept them and get it back up before anyone else notices.

The Whole Rebounding Package

The timing brings together a complete package of rebounding skills. You’ve probably noticed by now that a lot of these clips could easily slide into other categories. Rarely does he have an effort play that doesn’t involve positioning, or technique that doesn’t involve timing; really, any combination of the four.

This brings me to the main point. Too often I see rebounders who employ some of these skills, but leave out the microskills that lead to truly dominant rebounding. Being tall or a hard worker is great, but these skills have to work in conjunction to find true productivity.

Another thing I have come to appreciate about Looney circles back to his high school days. He went from Milwaukee’s Kevin Durant to a yeoman-like worker on the glass. Few NBA players can maintain a spot in the league after suffering such a devastating alteration to their physical attributes. Even fewer can thrive, especially at such physically demanding parts of the game

Kevon Looney has mastered this Art of Board, and we get to watch him ply his trade for 82 games per season. What an incredible gift.

The post Kevon Looney’s Art of Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stephen Curry vs LeBron James. A rivalry that defines this generation of the NBA will potentially have its last dance and like the infamous football/soccer coach, Pep Guardiola, once said—”we will be there” (not actually there because the prices for these games are already off the charts but anyways).

This should be an electric series between two teams that have had their share of ups and downs and are coming in hot with a chip on their shoulder. But enough with the talking, let’s dive into what this all will look like on the court.

Matchups

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Stephen Curry
• D’Angelo Russell on Klay Thompson
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Andrew Wiggins
• LeBron James on Draymond Green
• Anthony Davis on Kevon Looney

For Golden State:

• Klay Thompson on D’Angelo Russell
• Stephen Curry on Austin Reaves
• Draymond Green on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Andrew Wiggins on LeBron James
• Kevon Looney on Anthony Davis

Starting with LA, the talk around the matchup is the “who guards Steph?” problem, and out of that first group, I trust Austin Reaves to be the guy. Per BBall Index, Reaves graded out as an A- in Off-Ball Chaser Defense and in Ball Screen Navigation, two very key skills you need to have defensively if you want to take on the task that is Stephen Curry. 

There has been talk from media and fans about Davis potentially guarding Draymond and LeBron guarding Looney which I can see, but to start the series I think Darvin Ham will go with a vanilla approach and not get too cute just yet. Looney is involved in a lot of Golden State’s actions, just like Draymond, and I think AD could split time between the two while still having the same impact defensively. 

For Golden State, I think the key here is Draymond on Vanderbilt. In the regular season matchups, Draymond showed little to no respect to Vanderbilt when he was “guarding” him and at times spent whole possessions heavily shadowing Anthony Davis who was primarily guarded by Looney. With Green roaming to help on Davis, this could cause trouble for LA in terms of Vanderbilt’s usage offensively and the spacing problems that could pursue from that matchup.

Stopping Steph?

In the famous words of the legendary Kevin Harlan, “You can not stop him, you can only hope to contain him!”

Long answer: stopping Steph is a proposition that many teams have tried and have failed in doing so. Do you go all out in stopping him or do you let him cook while you try and shut off Golden State’s other avenues to score? I think the Lakers will lean heavily toward the latter.

The Lakers and Warriors played in three games after the trade deadline with LA’s new cast and they defended Golden State the same way every single time. Putting a heavy emphasis on gapping the Warriors’ poor/non-shooters—Green, Looney, Kuminga, JaMychal Green to some extent, and I would assume Gary Payton II to be in this group although he didn’t play in these matchups—to cut off passing angles and for the Warriors free-flowing, spaced out offense.

And although Kuminga made that three, you’d much rather him taking threes than Steph, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, or Divincenzo getting threes or layups like how they usually do in their offense. This gap defense can disrupt how Golden State normally attacks and it will be on them to counter. The guards guarding the shooters running around will also have to top-lock (when a defender stands between the screener and the person you’re guarding) to deny easy handoffs and if the guards cut, they’ll cut right into Anthony Davis or LeBron James. With off-ball chasers like Reaves, Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown Jr., and even D’Angelo Russell who is really solid in this role when locked in, LA has the personnel to execute this defense fairly well. 

But we still haven’t answered the proposed question of stopping or even containing Steph. The best way to contain him while also containing their offense as a whole would be—prepare yourselves—drop coverage. 

But no, not that drop coverage with the big man sinking all the way in the paint and daring the ballhandler to hit pull-up jumpers. It’s Steph Curry. I’m recommending a higher variation of drop where the ballhandler’s defender still goes over the screen, but the big man is much higher, usually anywhere from the free throw line out to the 3-point line. 

Just like the other scheme against Golden State, the Lakers ran this during all three of those meetups post-deadline and it worked to a tee.

Now of course this isn’t the ultimate cheat code defense that will hold Steph to 20 points per game on bad efficiency. Steph will still get his because of his greatness but you have to play the long game with this defense and focus on the process of “how hard of looks are they getting?” vs the results of whether or not the ball is going in for them. 

With the greatness that is Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, nothing seems too farfetched as he is the key to this defensive strategy and is one of the few guys in the league that could actually execute it. We are asking him to be our main rim protector while also being fairly high on Steph where he can contest and maybe even block a couple 3s. It will be a tough task for The Brow but I honestly believe there is nobody in the league I’d rather have for this gameplan.

Answers for AD?

Speaking of AD, the Warriors will have to navigate how they deal with him while they’re on defense as well. In the latest matchup between the two teams, Davis detonated for 39 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocks on 64% True Shooting while hitting a mean dagger post shot over the lauded defender, Draymond Green. 

Davis presents a harder challenge for the Warriors than what they dealt with in the first round with Domantas Sabonis. Draymond and Looney were able to sag off of Sabonis and give him a great amount of space since Sabonis isn’t really comfortable as a scorer if he’s right near the rim for a layup. That meant post shots, floaters, midranges, and threes were off the table and were a complete non-factor for Sabonis as Draymond and Looney camped under the rim. 

You simply can not do that against Anthony Davis. 

AD is more of a finesse and quickness big with real touch and is perfectly fine with living in the post hook/floater range if need be. A primary attack I’d like LA to go with in terms of getting AD going would be to get him flowing off of movement so that he can attack the foot speed of Looney, in particular, but even Draymond as well. We saw the Lakers go to this way of attacking for that last matchup where Davis dropped a near 40-piece, running a lot of 5-out delay sets and setting pindown screens for AD for him to attack Looney. 

This isn’t the only way though, Davis will kill any 1-on-1 matchups in the post if you don’t send some type of help. AD actually had a very uncharacteristic post-up efficiency series against the Grizzlies where he got his typical looks that he makes most of the time, but just missed them. I would have to expect that those shots are bound to fall eventually and I think this can be the series where that happens. 

On top of AD being a hell of a mismatch on the ground, the Warriors can not match his verticality either. The tallest player the Warriors play in their rotation is Kevon Looney who is 6-9 but very floor bound. This is a complete contrast to what Davis had to deal with last round with the 6-11 terror Jaren Jackson Jr. who could match AD’s size and even still he had a very rough time guarding him. 

Because of all this, I’m expecting the Warriors to commit a ton of attention and help toward Davis’ way. Although they seem very locked in on not letting him get free Pick-and-Roll lobs and layups, they do not seem as disciplined in their post defense whereas Memphis very much was and it could’ve been one of the factors that kept AD’s efficiency for the series way lower than what we expect from him. Think this could potentially unlock some of AD’s passing too as he will have to make some pretty solid reads in order to counter the help they will send his way. The Warriors will make it tough for AD but this isn’t anything he hasn’t seen before and I think he just completed the test against a tougher Memphis matchup for him offensively. 

X-Factors

For Los Angeles

• LeBron James and Anthony Davis
• Lakers guards

Outside of Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, the stars for LA were pretty average in the 1st round matchup against Memphis. I think there is a world where Davis could have the same or even a bigger impact than Curry in this series and the Lakers will need that type of production from their superstar to win this one. With LeBron tending to his lingering foot issue, I’m just unsure of what he will bring to the series on the offensive end. Will he be the on-ball engine like we’ve seen throughout the previous 19 years of his career or again will he be this off-ball cog in the machine? And if he continues to be off-ball which is fine by me, he’ll have to be able to shoot threes at a respectable clip which he did not against Memphis.

LA’s guards again will have a big impact on this series. Austin Reaves is pretty much the only guard in the Lakers rotation that consistently produces and you don’t have to worry about him on the offensive side of the ball really. But D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and possibly Malik Beasley and/or Troy Brown Jr. could all play huge swing factor roles on the offensive side of the ball. Not sure how it looks in the stats, but just from a feel perspective, it seems like when D’Angelo Russell has a good game, the Lakers have a 90% chance of winning. I think he will be a little bit more looser than he was in the Memphis series with him not having to deal with as much physicality. The Lakers will be depending on Schröder’s defense so that’s why he is an x-factor but if Beasley or Brown Jr. could just start hitting shots, it could go a long way. Those two combined to shoot 6-for-30 (a whopping 20%) from three in the Memphis series so just them hitting shots could swing the series in LA’s favor.

For Golden State

• Draymond Green
• Klay Thompson/Andrew Wiggins

Draymond Green’s offensive ability will be tested in this series. Just like how the Warriors tested Sabonis’ ability in the first round. He will have to have the mindset of being aggressive on offense and not minding being a scorer which he’s shown he can have at times—Game 5 vs Sacramento—but can he do it efficiently and consistently? That is the real question and should be answered throughout the series.

On top of Klay and Wiggins just having to hit shots, they may be relied upon to create and provide some offense that may be more than usual for them. I think Golden State will look for mismatches on these two when they can and try to get them post looks which will be helpful. But after both had a pretty average first-round series on the offensive side of the ball, their number could be called a lot more vs Los Angeles.

Prediction Time

Lakers in 7.

I believe this will be a long, hard-fought series that will end with the Lakers coming out victorious. Whether it’s six and they win at Crypto.com Arena or seven away on the road, I think the Lakers are coming into this one with the tactical advantage over the Warriors and will try to impose their strength and size against a small-ball Warriors team. LA will be forceful in trying to establish their paint presence just from points in the paint but also on the free throw line where they drew the second most fouls per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Warriors committed the third-most personal fouls per game, so the whistle should play a factor and be in LA’s favor just based off of playstyle.

Either way, I simply cannot wait to enjoy this series to the fullest and live through what may be the last chapter of LeBron vs Steph. Two legends that had their hand in reshaping the game into the way it is now and I’ll forever be appreciative towards them for that. But again, enough with all the talking man—let’s hoop!

The post Warriors vs Lakers Series Preview: Steph vs LeBron Part V appeared first on Swish Theory.

But the first two games felt like the Warriors stood in the same spot and dug a 15-foot hole straight down and became shocked when they couldn’t climb out.

Despite out-shooting the Kings for two games on the road, a seemingly impossible feat considering Golden State’s road shooting splits, they couldn’t stop tripping over themselves. The advantage from deep (30% on 70 attempts for SAC vs. 32% on 90 attempts for GSW) has been negligible, but the advantage inside the arc has been a major surprise. GSW is making 65% of their twos, compared to 54% from Sacramento.

What’s really killing them is the volume of high-value shots they are allowing to Sacramento. Not only are they taking 50% more shots inside the arc than Golden State by total volume, but they are also getting high-value short midrange shots that GSW has traditionally allowed. De’Aaron Fox especially is able to take advantage of that:

The shooting percentage on twos and from deep has also been completely negated by the Kings pummeling the undersized and under-hustling Warriors on the offensive glass. A 17-9 margin in Game 1 and 12-9 in Game 2 only furthers Golden State’s deficit in shot totals. It’s no coincidence the Kings got 8 more shot attempts in a three-point Game 1 victory, and 10 more in Game 2. But the losses on the glass are only half the equation.

Unsurprisingly, Golden State has also lost the turnover battle in both games. That feeds right into the Kings’ high-powered transition game, and it’s absolutely murdering them.

Oh, did I mention the Kings also won the free-throw battle in both games because of their superior rim pressure and point-of-attack defense? And that Golden State’s defensive fulcrum will be missing for Game 3 after stomping out Domantas Sabonis like a Mortal Kombat finishing move?

So, Are We Cooked?

Maybe. It’s possible that Golden State is gearing up to charge out of the gates into death and glory like Theoden and Aragorn at Helm’s Deep. And though they don’t have reinforcements coming at dawn of the fifth day, they have one thing neither Sacramento nor Saruman possesses: Wardell Stephen Curry II.

Through the course of his playoff career, Curry has played in 12 do-or-die games while down 2-1 or 3-2 in the series. He averages 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while the team has posted an astounding 8-4 record with their backs against the wall. He’s at his most dangerous when threatened, and I fully expect him to go nuclear tonight to try to avoid the first 3-0 series deficit of his career. Never having been down 2-0 is an incredible feat by itself, and Steph will do all he can to hold the tide. The increased PNR frequency will be on full display tonight: expect a good 50 ball screens for Curry tonight.

But against the best offense in the league, he won’t be enough by himself.

Supporting Cast is Called To Action

Without Draymond Green, lots of other players will need to step up. Even if Jonathan Kuminga joins the starting lineup, the Warriors will need a Herculean effort from future Chase Center statue-haver Kevon Looney. The league leader in offensive rebounds needs to put on a one-man glass-cleaning show to negate Sacramento’s advantage on the glass.

They’re also going to rely heavily on the off-ball rotations from Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. So much of their first-ranked opponent rim percentage mark is predicated on getting the right rotations from Draymond Green, and without him, someone will need to step in to help Kevon Looney when dealing with Sabonis in the post, trying to contain De’Aaron Fox drives, or tracking and erasing their cutting wings.

Extra reliance on Jonathan Kuminga is perhaps a necessity tonight. Jordan Poole is not playing up to his pedigree, and Golden State is in dire need of a positive contributor on defense who can switch and stay engaged off the ball. Kuminga is also capable of filling Poole’s rim pressuring via cuts, rolls, slips, and drives without all the silly extra stuff that comes with Poole’s recent offensive performance.

The point-of-attack defense also needs to step up, especially if Poole is seeing diminished minutes. With less defensive mistakes to cover up, they’ll have to buckle down on Fox, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter to stop the endless purple tide of rim pressure, midrange mastery, and perimeter shooting.

How Can They Pull It Off?

We’ve seen the how. In the first quarter of Monday’s game, they showed crisp offense and a hustling defense that forced Sacramento into far more threes and turnovers than they would have liked while controlling the glass to boot. Then the effort faded, the defense collapsed, and so did the lead.

Effort is first and foremost. Fight for every inch on the glass. Guard the ball with necessary caution. Fly off every screen, cut and roll hard, and rotate with a purpose. They’re capable of out-talenting the Kings on a bad night, but they need to win games by outworking them. Another stale effort will find them at a point of no return.

They need to stay committed to blowing up Sacramento’s handoff actions, forcing Sabonis into double teams, and keeping De’Aaron Fox out of the middle at all costs. And offensively even a few minutes of stagnated movement and lack of cohesion can put them under against the best offense in the league. A full 48 minutes of crisp effort will win them this game, even without Draymond Green.

It’s entirely in the hands of the players now. If they don’t bring effort and execution to tonight’s matchup, they should start looking at flights to Cabo.

The post How the Warriors Can Fight Back appeared first on Swish Theory.

Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT. Stats current as of 12/31, only December games counted

Jordan Poole, Guard

December Stats: 15 games (14 starts), 28.9/2.9/4.2/0.5/0.2 per 75 poss, 56/33/89 splits, 21.5 AST%, 0.91 ATO, .324 FTR, .475 3PR

Well, it’s been a month for the fourth-year combo guard.

With Steph and Andrew Wiggins missing the latter half of December, Jordan Poole has become the primary catalyst for Golden State’s offense and has more than performed. He scored the eighth most total points of any player in the last month of 2022, shouldering a load he didn’t look capable of carrying early this season.

What’s more important is the lack of total cratering offensively for the whole team. Without their MVP-level Curry or second-most consistent scorer in Wiggins, Golden State should be one of the worst offenses in the league. Being the seventh-worst offense in their absence is far better than it sounds.

So, how is Poole keeping Golden State alive offensively as they navigate their time sans All-Stars?

Finally, Offensive Consistency

Within Poole’s 27 points per game in December are a lot of very encouraging developments. His drives per game have jumped from 8.8 to 10.9 in Steph’s absence, showing a consistent willingness to get downhill. Unsurprisingly, his free-throw attempts have jumped from 3.5 to 6.5 per game in the same time frame. Jordan is playing like the rim-pressure threat we know he can be.

The increase in paint pressure hasn’t led to the sort of playmaking boost you’d like to see, but with a lack of scoring options around him, it’s hard to blame Poole for hunting his shot a bit more over the past 8 games (19.1 AST% compared to 26.1% w/ Steph). It’s also resulted in a slight uptick in his total free-throw rate and a decline in his three-point rate over the month of December relative to his season averages, showing a player determined to find quality looks. What stands out to me most is the confidence he has rediscovered, pulling out all sorts of mixtape moves and finishing deep threes, wild finishes, and dribble moves with his funky celebrating style.

Though still not hitting the efficiency numbers he is capable of, Poole has displayed the confidence in his shot that we’ve been waiting to see. 32.6% from deep in December isn’t jumping off the page, but he’s getting up over 9 attempts per game. He was at 35% from deep in December before Steph went down, so here’s hoping he can find more impact going forward. The off-ball flashes this month will come in handy when Golden State’s MVP returns.

One thing to remember with Poole’s shooting: being solid enough, in consideration of the difficulty of his shot diet, does a lot to the defense. Take a player like Luka Dončić. This is the first time in five years making an above league-average percentage of threes, but his shot difficulty and frequency are incomparable to any other shooter. Defenses have to respect the looks, even if not hitting in the 40% range like the elite perimeter shot makers. Poole ending up in a similar space perimeter-wise would go a long way toward enhancing his drives and overall playmaking.

This all adds up to consistency. In December, Poole strung together four straight games with 20+ PPG on three separate occasions. Up until then, he only had one back-to-back 20-point performance. That is a player who has found the reliability this team so desperately needed.

Defense Still Theoretical

Unfortunately, reviews aren’t as glowing about Poole’s defense. He is still a weak link in their faltering armor, ranking as one of their worst defenders in terms of total opponent FG% and being routinely attacked in screen actions. They still have the back-line defenders to make up for the deficiencies when playing with the starters, but it needs to be better.

When building a defensive profile from the ground up, any signs of life are welcome. He can be pretty good when engaged and staying within himself, acting as a cog within the system:

It’s the off-ball lapses that still drive people a bit nutty, including myself. His tendency to follow the ball often leads to his man slipping away for cuts or finding extra room on the perimeter. Again, if he stays within himself and focuses only on his own man, Golden State has the defenders to make an impact if he contains his responsibilities.

Until we see tangible improvement on the whole, all we have to hold on to are the flashes. Hopefully, those flashes become trends in the new year.

Keep An Eye Out For…

What happens when Steph comes back?

Will Poole revert to his bench self from early in the year, struggling to make an impact? Or can he keep up this confidence and bring it to a bench unit starved for the offense he has been providing recently?

This is what it comes down to for me. He’s found the offensive consistency I called for in the last edition, and the new challenge is to keep the momentum going once Curry returns to the forefront of the offense. This version of Jordan Poole with a healthy starting unit gives Golden State as good of a top-six as any team in the league.

James Wiseman, Big

December Stats: 9 games (0 starts), 20.3/10/1.1/0.4/1.1 per 75 poss, 65/50/68 splits, .294 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 0.5 ATO

The pariah of Warriors Twitter showed signs of life to close the year, finding a way to make an impact with Golden State desperate for impact off the bench in the frontcourt.

Between November 7th and December 14th, Wiseman found himself playing in only 2 of Golden State’s 19 contests as he was moved down to Santa Cruz. Now he’s recorded playing time in 7 of the last 8 games, filling valuable minutes with many a Warrior out of the lineup; most notably, JaMychal Green has missed the last 6. But he’s not just a warm body, receiving more trust from Steve Kerr than ever before. How has James Wiseman accomplished this?

Impact Rebounding

Kevon Looney is one of the important cogs of Golden State’s defense for his ability to finish possessions, collecting 33% of available defensive rebounds when on the floor. JaMychal Green has been a serviceable player on the glass when Kevon sits, and his absence leaves the Warriors with only questions on the glass when going to the bench. Fortunately, Wiseman has found a way to step up.

In the month of December, only Looney has posted a higher share of defensive rebounds than Wiseman’s 35.1% mark. He’s looking more the part in addition to the statistical increases, using his frame to find bodies with more consistency and his length to reach the boards only some can get.

The increase in activity and technical skill has been a boon for his individual numbers, though not quite leading to the success for others you see out of Looney. He’ll have to improve at boxing his man out to get rebounding chances for the transition handlers, but he’s looking more the part of the 7-foot glass cleaner they had in mind.

Improved Drop Coverage

Wiseman has also found a way to create more impact with his defensive coverage. His spatial awareness in drop has looked better than it did early in the season, showing better hand activity and footwork to boot. You can see it all on display against Jalen Brunson on this drive:

A lot of his frustrating possessions have been marked by deep drops where guards can take short floaters or eat up space and get semi-contested shots at the rim. He’s starting to get a little higher to wall drives off earlier, showing increased confidence in his ability to recover backward and close off lobs or the weak side of the rim.

Though his opponent rim numbers haven’t shown improvement (75% in December), he sat at 66% before his recent call-up which was in Kevon Looney territory. Where the real improvement lies is in the distribution and limitation of the short midrange. Before the demotion, 33% of his paint attempts came in the short midrange, with opponents hitting 58% of those looks. Over this recent stretch, 47% of his paint attempts are short midrange, with opponents hitting only 31%. His exploration with a higher drop is creating a higher percentage of tough shots that he is contesting instead of giving up.

Part of what disappointed me with Wiseman’s defense early this year was the lack of variability. Ballhandlers, poppers, and rollers knew what to expect. A little more unpredictability could go a long way.

Finding Better Screen Angles

Another big struggle from the beginning of the season was impact screening. Wiseman still has a hard time finding the right way to get a true wipeout screen, but there have been improvements in his processing of where to be. You can see him making small adjustments based on the ballhandler and defender more often, and finding opportunities to slip on a regular basis.

When he’s actually making an impact with the screen, he’s shown some decisive possessions going downhill and finishing at the rim.

Positive strides in using screens for himself and for others are a great sign for his projected usage. The improved results should give him something to build on as the second half of the season approaches, and more importantly the eventual returns of JaMychal Green, Andrew Wiggins, and Steph Curry.

Keep An Eye Out For…

The impending rotation crunch.

If Golden State gets back to full health soon, will Wiseman have a role or return to Santa Cruz? That upcoming decision looms large over his next month. If staying around, building on his rebounding and screening impact could keep him in a low-minute role on a nightly basis. But if sent back down, James has to show he can dominate physically in the G while filling in his responsibilities as a 5.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

December Stats: 15 games (2 starts), 15.2/5.7/2.6/1.1/0.5 per 75 poss, 59/27/63 splits, .245 3PR, .422 FTR, 18.1 TRB%, 1.71 ATO

It’s apparent to anyone who watched Jonathan Kuminga’s development that his defensive impact is here to stay.

With Andrew Wiggins missing all but two games in December, Kuminga has been relied on as the top perimeter defender on the team, and the results are showing.

He’s making impact defensive possessions when Golden State needs them most. His rip on PJ Washington and defense on Damian Lillard to close tough wins during their recent four-game win streak show off how he can be a weapon anywhere. Defending bigger forwards, quicker guards, scoring wings, it’s all the same.

Let’s look closer at the breakout over the past month.

A Future All-Defensive Player Blooms

I have a hard time even counting the jaw-dropping perimeter possessions from Jonathan Kuminga this past month. His shutdown on Jordan Clarkson in a clutch situation against Utah was perhaps one of the most impressive:

His ability to guard any kind of ballhandler has put other teams on notice. With Memphis starving to get back in the game against the Dubs, they did everything they could to switch Kuminga off the ball to create offense, and he responded with quality help:

Adding to his excellent perimeter defense and blossoming help, he’s putting in more work on the glass. Finding the right spots to use his excellent vertical takes advantage of boxouts, and he can throw his weight around to deter glass crashers to boot. That approach will leave him with a well-rounded defensive game sooner than later, and his impact will be felt all over that end of the floor in due time.

There aren’t many words left to describe Kuminga’s defense other than begging you to track him on every defensive possession when he’s on the floor while Andrew Wiggins is out, and note the responsibilities he is given. And you can listen to Steve Kerr:

Taking His Drives

While Kuminga’s defense rightly gets the majority of the attention, he’s taking strides on offense as well. His drives per game have gone from 3.0 in October and November to 4.7 in December. On the season, he generates the fourth-highest percentage of points per drive among regular Warriors players. Adding more high-efficiency plays to a team lacking some primary offensive options has helped keep them afloat in important situations.

He’s showing off a variety of ways to beat the defense beyond his usual power-speed combination, showcasing footwork and off-hand finishing as a usable counter when he can’t get downhill instantly:

He’s shown himself to be capable of the spectacular as well, putting some Curry-esque high glass finishes off his drives:

What I’ve also enjoyed seeing is leveraging the playmaking for others. Kuminga has a higher pass percentage on drives than Steph, JP, and Draymond this season, showing a willingness to collapse the defense and find cutters or shooters. He’s finally starting to put results behind the intent. These slower drives give him better body control in addition to an extra tick to read the floor.

Last month I hoped to see more from Kuminga on his drives, and he has delivered when Golden State has needed offense more than ever. Further development as a drive-and-kick or rim-attack threat would majorly improve the Dubs’ offensive outlook going forward.

Stable Cutting

The Warriors rely on cutting as much as any team (97th percentile frequency this season, per Synergy) and Kuminga has taken strides to fit in. He ranks fifth on the team in total cut frequency and generates the sixth-highest PPP (1.29) which is a whisker above the team’s 1.283 average.

Over the past month, Kuminga’s cutting has proven crucial in clutch situations. His recognition of when to pick the right spot is apparent on this patient cut:

His physical tools and ability to pick good spots can be used to open things up for others, and he’s starting to recognize that:

Being a proficient driver and cutter would be all Golden State needs out of Kuminga offensively, given the personnel around him and his defensive value. He’s already pretty solid at both and seems to grow at a rapid pace. Who knows where his offensive value may lie by the end of the season?

Keep An Eye Out For…

Kuminga’s upcoming questions are similar to Wiseman’s, only in different degrees. When Steph, Wiggins, and JaMychal return to the lineup, where does Kuminga lie in the rotation? Is he 7th behind Poole, 8th behind Donte DiVincenzo, or has he solidified the inside track to a playoff rotation spot? And if so, can he stay at the level he’s displayed over the past month?

Moses Moody, Wing

December Stats: 14 games (2 starts), 10.8/2.8/2/0.7/0 per 75 poss, 58/46/75 splits, .583 3PR, .067 FTR, 3.75 ATO

Last month, I wrote about Moses Moody’s lack of playing time, which you can catch up on here. Steve Kerr outlined clear concerns for the sophomore wing, and he managed to deliver in December. Let’s look at what Moses built on in his limited playing time.

Taking Care of the Rock

Kerr outlined two main issues for Moody when previously asked about playing time concerns: turnovers and defending without fouling. He certainly delivered on the offensive end of that equation. In a November riddled with DNPs, Moody turned the ball over 10 times in 11 contests. That number was cut to 4 giveaways in 15 December games.

It didn’t come at the expense of his playmaking. His assists rose from 8 in November to 15 in December, turning his ATO from 0.8 to 3.75. It’s rarely spectacular, but he is finding spots to drive and find teammates, especially to the corners. He’s limiting his exposure to long ballhandling sequences with quick passes like these:

He can still be prone to the mistakes Kerr called out, like forced entry passes that aren’t lobbed or bounced. The ones like you see below are a major sticking point with the coaching staff.

If he cleans these up and continues to keep the ball flowing without mistakes, that would show a lot of growth.

Staying Ready

Unsurprisingly, Moody has a knack for coming off the bench cold and performing. He’s always been a hard worker and competitor who wants to contribute any way he can, including a variety of timely shots throughout the past month.

His confidence has permeated through his game despite some rough stretches. Constructive criticism from the coaching staff hasn’t deterred him from picking spots to be aggressive and use his physical tools.

He canned 43% of his 2.5 looks per game from deep in December, showing a player unshaken by early struggles and capable of hot stretches. For offensive purposes, better results from deep and limited turnovers with enough connective playmaking could put him back into consideration for a consistent bench spot.

Showing Defensive Potential

One and a half seasons in, Moody hasn’t shown the impact perimeter defense we saw in college on a regular basis. He’s prone to positioning issues and getting himself in trouble that he’s not capable of recovering from. Bigger wings have given him trouble, and quicker guards can get past him for now. But it’s the footwork to go with his length that could help him be a better overall deterrent:

Golden State has a strong rotation of defensive wings, but the absence of Andrew Wiggins has necessitated further depth on that end. Positive signs that Moody can be part of the unit without breaking are welcome. As usual, his help has been quality, especially when tasked with paint responsibilities where footwork and length play a major role:

Keep An Eye Out For…

The goal for last month was just to get more minutes. Now that he has that, can he build on some positive momentum?

If he continues to take care of the ball, plays more solid defense, and the shot continues to fall, it’s hard to justify keeping him out of bench minutes. Even if two of those three things are happening, he should have a more consistent role. It speaks to Golden State’s depth that he’s playing better and still on the outside looking in.

Moody will have to do a lot to put himself in consideration for the playoff rotation over the coming months, but let’s hope January is another step in that direction.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

December Stats: 7 games (0 starts), 20.8/4.4/1.1/0.5/0 per 75 poss, 33/52/50 splits, .778 3PR, .09 FTR, 18.6 DREB%, 1.0 ATO

Possibly the most unexpected development over the last month is Patrick Baldwin Jr.’s emergence.

After getting himself into 4 games over the first two months of the season, spending the majority of his time in the G-League, Baldwin found himself thrust into 7 contests as Golden State’s injury concerns deepen. And wow, did he look ready.

Shooting the Damn Thing

Baldwin’s 11.25 three-point attempts per 75 possessions ranked first among all Warriors in the month of December, and not by accident. Hitting 52% of those looks is eye-popping, and the way he does it looks very sustainable.

He’s great at keeping his feet active and finding angles, and that release point is damn near unguardable. Baldwin Jr. isn’t going to be a star rim pressure guy anytime soon, but he’s found ways to leverage his shooting success into closeout attacks. Besides, does the volume of free throws or rim looks matter when your 6’10” forward has endless confidence, a lethally quick release for his size, and elite shotmaking potential?

In this Golden State offense, he can be a massive weapon even in limited minutes. The bench has struggled to find consistent offense all year, and it now appears a PBJ three is one of their better options. The way he keeps himself moving will translate to good offense as long as he’s around:

He’s slowly becoming a silent killer, and the team is beginning to recognize that. As Klay said after their wild double overtime win in Atlanta, Patrick Baldwin Jr. is putting the “jelly” in PBJ.

There Might Be a Defender Here?

PBJ wasn’t drafted for his defense, and has shown the value pretty clearly on the offensive side of the ball. But he still has to learn to pick his spots on defense and stay responsible, even if he won’t be tasked with the most important assignments on the whole.

Not a skilled point-of-attack defender or rim protector, PBJ’s defensive tasks will be position and rotation-based. And there are good signs he knows what he is, and where to be:

Playing within yourself is one of my favorite traits for a defender. Knowing you aren’t the first, second, or third best defender on the court is a valuable skill all by itself. Watch Anthony Lamb run around like Draymond, overhelping like a fat uncle on Thanksgiving, and you’ll start to appreciate what Baldwin Jr. does.

He sticks in the lane to use his frame for rebounds, and picks his chances to rotate and make an impact:

Does enough to funnel Dejounte into the help when mismatched, then waits out the entry pass to pick up his teammates who just shouldered his drive. This is the stuff you want to see.

With PBJ’s offensive talents, finding little ways to contribute defensively will go a long way towards solidifying rotation minutes in the future.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Let’s build on this confidence, shall we?

It seems unlikely that he survives the impending rotation crunch, but he could make an outright case to steal JaMychal Green’s minutes at the 4 in the interim. If neither offer all that much defensively, why not play the true stretch 4 who can keep the ball moving?

Continue to let it rip from deep, provide credible rotations and secondary rebounding help for the bigs, and PBJ might just find himself with a nightly role after being written off as a potential contributor in the preseason. Hell, he might just play his way into a permanent fixture on the team.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 NBA Stats: 60 total minutes, 12.3/5.9/3.6/0.6/0.6 per 75 poss, 30/33/100 splits, 6/16 ATO

2022/23 G-League Stats: 25.6/5.3/5.2/1.4/0.4 per 36 mins, 55/37/71 splits, .385 3PR, .179 FTR, 24.9 AST%, 1.41 ATO, 29.4% USG

Rollins being the only rookie-scale Warrior to appear in December and not improve their overall outlook says a lot more about Golden State’s other players than it does about Rollins.

He’s still looking pretty overmatched in his NBA minutes, as the 16 turnovers in 60 minutes and -49 net rating would indicate, but he’s looking like quite the player in the G League. Without NBA minutes on the horizon, seeing DNPs in all of Golden State’s last five wins, we still have to look for things in his G-League minutes.

Still a Riverboat Gambler

His defensive stats indicate a solid ability to pilfer the ball, but Rollins’ defense is still a bit frustrating to watch.

He LOVES to jump the gap in passing lanes and go for the pick-six, but often misses the window and pays big defensively. As I mentioned before with PBJ, playing within yourself on defense is a valuable trait, one Rollins does not possess at the moment. The massive wingspan for his size and athletic qualities certainly give him the ability to make these jumps on passes, but few players can consistently make that play without taking on water defensively when they miss.

Digs off the perimeter like you see below are where he needs to make his impact. That reach can close gaps faster than most guards can, and being a great help defender is impossible without tools. He just needs the process to match his gifts.

He’s not prone to lapses and can make some solid play recognitions, but his size deficiencies leave him fighting an uphill battle against wings or bigger guards. Don’t expect Rollins to be the switch-friendliest defender in this system.

There are flashes of a decent POA and better help defender in there, but we’re a ways away from rotation-caliber defense by Steve Kerr’s standards.

The Young Young Bull?

The good news for Rollins is that the offense has already translated up a level. After showing strong prowess on the glamour end of the floor at Toledo, Rollins has proven to be Santa Cruz’s best on-ball playmaker out of the gate.

His near 30% usage mark and sheer scoring volume are welcome signs for a team that has lacked a true backup scoring point guard since… Jarrett Jack? Rollins gets himself downhill frequently, showing some solid finishing with enough of a midrange/floater/runner package to present real counters to the defense.

Guards of his ilk tend to be one speed with few tendencies, but he has a strong sense of when to slow things up and use a change of speeds to create opportunities for himself or for teammates, as you see on this PNR with James Wiseman:

The potential for a quality on-ball game is only complemented by his off-ball shooting chops, which are on the rise. Guards with strictly on-ball value don’t last long in Golden State; you need to move without the ball, and it helps to have a quick and effective release:

Keep An Eye Out For…

Continued G-League dominance.

As the G rolls through their regular season, Rollins’ role has the potential to keep growing. He looks like a Quad-A athlete right now, too good for the minors but not quite ready for the majors. What it’s really about is proving yourself as a rosterable player next season, when Golden State could find themselves looking to replace Donte DiVincenzo, who holds a player option he is likely to exceed in free agency.

If the scoring and playmaking stay at this level, some turnovers are cleaned up, and consistency is found on the defensive end, the front office will be on notice.

Special Guest: Gui Santos, Wing/Forward

2022/23 G-League Stats: 12.5/9.4/3.8/1.0/0.8 per 36 mins, 61/33/58 splits, .521 3PR, .103 FTR, 13.9 REB%, 1.08 ATO, 17.1 USG

It’s time for Gui to make his debut after dropping 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 steals against a good Stockton Kings team to close the year.

Golden State hasn’t had much success with their draft-and-stash prospects in recent years, but Gui showcases his potential every time he steps on the floor. A slasher with playmaking chops and defensive potential written all over, he’s quietly an exciting project waiting in the wings. He’s also shown an ability to work on his flaws.

Chucking Away from Deep

Taking more than half his shots from deep is certainly a surprise considering what he was drafted for, but it makes sense in a developmental context. Gui shot 36% and 33% from deep in his last two seasons with Minas on limited attempts. Golden State probably wants to see if there’a anything there while the games are still lower stakes. This was a similar trend to how Jonathan Kuminga played with the G-League Ignite. He took far more threes than expected, trying to work on a weakness knowing he can slash and cut at will.

Gui isn’t the same caliber of athlete as Kuminga, but he’s shown an ability to contribute in a similar way offensively. The cutting and driving paved the way to his career-high game against Stockton:

If the cutting and slashing continue to translate, and a solid catch-and-shoot jumper forms, that forms the kind of big wing/small-ball 4 they want.

Another Defender Full of Potential

Gui has shown some on-ball flashes on opposing wings, with a solid combo of functional athleticism and size to be a moving wall in front of slower ballhandlers. With how he could be used by the big club, some signs of holding up on switches has to viewed as a huge plus at this stage.

Santos also has signs of a potential “event creator” off the ball. He’s shown to be a strong rebounder for his position, one who flies in off the wings to gather rebounds and hustles at every turn. Gui’s creation of steals and blocks is a pleasant surprise up to this point, which bodes well for a player who profiles in a help role often.

Considering the development Golden State has seen to date, the signs of being a Diet Kuminga in his first taste of upper tier pro basketball is a great start. Let’s hope he can continue his strong play in the G, and we’ll check in with him later on.

Looking Forward

With Steph and Wiggins out for the coming week plus of games, plus some incoming back-to-backs (including a 3 games in 4 nights stretch against Boston, Cleveland, and Brooklyn), the young players seeking rotation spots will have more opportunities to come. Players like Poole and Kuminga will see chances to solidify their roles as potentially important playoff contributors down the road.

Let’s hope that the beginning of the new year is as productive for these young Dubs as the end of the last. We’ll check in soon.

The post Two Timelines, Part III: A December to Remember appeared first on Swish Theory.