For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.

Marcus Sasser, the reigning Jerry West Award winner and a consensus All-American, is another in a long line of family ties to the game. His father, Marcus Sr., was a former collegiate player. His uncles Jeryl and Jason had stints in the NBA, the latter coaching Marcus Jr. during high school in Red Oak, Texas. His great-grandfather, John Barber, made an NBA cameo in 1957 with the St. Louis Hawks, playing under coaching legend Red Holzman.

You could say Marcus was born for this, but that would take away from the countless hours of work he has put into solidifying his greatness within the game. After being selected 25th overall by the Detroit Pistons in the 2023 Draft, Marcus finds himself on the cusp of making his family name stand out more than ever.

Offensive Overview

Through 16 games off the bench, Sasser is averaging 16.4 points and 5.2 assists per 75 possessions while getting up 6.6 threes per 75 to boot. With Detroit searching desperately for backcourt offensive production from players not named Cade Cunningham, Sasser has been a revelation.

It certainly shows on the tape that Sasser is more than just a perimeter specialist and refuses to be pigeonholed into one role. His shot chart on Cleaning The Glass backs it up:

His shot distribution reminds me of a thermal map in “Aliens” where Corporal Hicks realizes he is about to be swamped by a set of xenomorphs.

While there are a lot of strengths in his game beyond the shot diversity, there are some definite shortcomings we will explore as well.

Comprehensive 3-Point Shooting

Now here’s a guy who can let it fly.

Currently, Sasser is sitting on a 40% mark on catch-and-shoots, which has been a hallmark of his game through the Houston days. He shows exceptional confidence in his shot, especially from deep range.

There are occasional instances where his mechanics break down off movement or with extra momentum behind the shot, but he is surprisingly consistent off the bounce in how he sets his feet. Notice the placement of his right foot in this shot:

But, overall, Sasser shows a lot of technical proficiency in his shot to accentuate a lightning-quick release.

Sasser has also shown a strong sense of passing and relocating to outwork the defense and get more catch-and-shoot attempts:

What stands out are the shots he can take and make off the dribble, where he’s at 45%. The film shows a solid, but starkly limited, bag of movement shots.

Like most right-handed shooters, Sasser is most comfortable taking movement shots to his left:

The main issue I have with Sasser’s movement 3-point shooting is the lack of confidence in his shot going to the right. This is typically more difficult to master, so it’s not a major slight. But it’s something to keep an eye on as Sasser tries to expand the tree of his potential shots off the perimeter.

I love seeing how Monty Williams integrates Marcus’ shooting and size into sets. It opens up a lot of interesting looks for the offense that other shooters cannot generate:

Wiseman pins in for Sasser (hardly setting a screen in the process) to open up what looks like a Spain pick-and-roll look, designed to confuse Jonathan Kuminga on the switch. But instead, Sasser ghosts the screen going to Killian Hayes‘ right, opening up a clean catch-and-shoot look on the wing. Marcus’ desire to hustle and execute these looks makes him a fascinating offensive piece to accentuate the other creators on the team.

Sasser’s ability to take the tough perimeter shots (over 85% of threes coming above the break) opens up a lot for his teammates. Detroit has arguably the worst perimeter spacing in the league, but Marcus is a part of the solution, not the problem.

It also serves to open up a second level of prolific scoring.

Budding Intermediate Game

Far and away, this was the most impressive thing about Sasser’s offensive game to me.

First and foremost, let’s look at how the perimeter shooting opens up midrange counters off closeout attacks.

This is a nice bit of awareness by Sasser to see LaVine sinking to help at the nail, then quickly attacking his closeout to get back to the middle and hit the pull-up two.

Sasser likes getting into his floater when attacking closeouts, capable of finishing from different angles and speeds.

The deep range he can pull off on the floater is particularly impressive:

I’m not sure how many players can consistently pull off 18-foot floaters, but it’s surely a short list.

The midrange shot and floater is what Sasser wants to get to when running pick-and-rolls or handoffs. He can use that screen to get the shots he wants over drop coverage. It’s a nice benefit when the shot you want to get to is the shot the defense wants to concede.

Sasser currently takes 22% of his total shots in the long midrange, a 94th percentile mark amongst point guards. To boot, he’s canning 55% of those looks so far. The numbers back up the film: Marcus Sasser is quietly an elite long-two creator.

Yet the problems begin to show once we get to the third level of scoring.

Rim Struggles

Going from the long twos to the short (between 4 and 14 feet), problems immediately begin to emerge. The frequency immediately drops off a cliff; that 94th percentile long two mark drops to the 25th percentile on shorter twos. Unsurprisingly, the ability to convert those shots drops as well. He’s converting 44% in that range, an 11% drop from the long twos.

A lot of this has to do with Sasser’s ability (or lack thereof) to get high up on his jumps and draw contact. Paint defenders are generally not threatened by his rim pressure and Sasser is often scared to get on there. It sticks out on the tape.

Out of fear for Andre Drummond rotating over in the above clip, he doesn’t take a direct path to the rim and opens up more angles for the much larger DeMar DeRozan to get the block in trail. Marcus needs to be definitive about taking the proper angles instead of playing scared around the rim.

In terms of the actual rim attempts, Sasser’s frequency is genuinely concerning. Team context is important here; the paint stays clogged against Detroit. Yet many of his teammates have it figured despite this. Jaden Ivey, an absolute blur of an athlete, has managed a 98th percentile rim frequency. Cade Cunningham, not the most fleet of foot, has posted middling frequencies. Killian Hayes, who has much less burst than Sasser, is only slightly below Sasser’s 11% rim frequency mark, a 9th percentile mark amongst point guards.

It’s worth pointing out here that Sasser has yet to have an assisted look at the rim this season. If he wants to get layups or dunks, he’s going to have to do the work himself. Cutting or slashing into a horrifically clogged paint is not going to produce the results he needs.

I don’t want to dwell on the negatives here. That’s not my style or what I want to accomplish here. Instead, we can look at the good possessions that have come out of his limited volume to see what can be expanded on.

The primary asset that Sasser possesses around the rim is coordination and patience. When he has leverage and time to think, Marcus uses fakes to throw defenders off and generate simpler looks for himself, especially out of pick-and-roll.

The threat of his pull-up going left, as we covered earlier, forces Josh Okogie to hesitate an extra beat. Sasser explodes into that gap and uses the pump fake to press his advantage, getting 3 defenders in the air at once to turn a highly contested shot into layup lines.

I found myself impressed by how Sasser finds funky angles to get off his rim attempts, often confusing rim protectors. He’s also quite good at manipulating his defenders off screens. Both of those tools are on display below:

Shaedon Sharpe is trying to wall off the middle and preempt the screen all at once to force Sasser left, and eventually, Marvin Bagley III re-screens to oblige the defense. Sasser immediately goes middle again by snaking the PNR to pressure DeAndre Ayton’s drop. The crafty scoop finish gets up before Ayton can react, and he’s got the touch with his right to get it in off the glass.

Not only does Sasser show some decent pick-and-roll craft to get to the rim, but he profiles as a solid mismatch attacker to boot. Some off-ball points like Marcus don’t even have the kind of speed or dribble skills to get beyond a mismatched big, but he has shown the chops for it.

Again, Marcus is showing off his ability to finish high off the glass without having to slow his momentum. That’s going to be crucial for his rim-finishing potential as he learns to maximize his limited athletic tools and frame.

Even with the positive flashes, paint touches and overall rim finishing remain a concern, which ties directly into our last offensive category.

Playmaking Concerns

Sasser is listed as a point guard but doesn’t quite play like one. His assist percentage currently sits at 19.1%, a 9th percentile mark from point guards. Much of this comes from the lack of ability to collapse a defense and put opponents in rotation. This opens up the highest value possible assists.

There are still good instances of Sasser leveraging his solid floor reading when he does manage to collapse the defense:

Drew Eubanks tries to play high on the level of the screen and gets destroyed, with Jordan Goodwin well behind the play. Josh Okogie and Yuta Watanabe stay home in the corners as Kevin Durant sinks from the wing, so there’s only one play to make. Sasser tosses a beautiful wrap pass over his head to Ausar Thompson at the top of the key for an open three. That’s some quality floor reading from a rookie guard.

Marcus is quite good at finding where the help is coming from, as he does on this double drag set:

This is all about manipulating DeMar DeRozan and Andre Drummond in tandem. Kevin Knox ghosts the first screen of the double drag and heads to the empty wing, but DeRozan stays in the action knowing he has to cover Drummond’s back side with James Wiseman screening and rolling. Drummond must stay between Sasser’s drive and Wiseman’s roll to deny the easier shot, forcing DeRozan’s hand. A kick to the far wing by Sasser finds the open shooter.

We have the flashes of complex playmaking by Marcus. For now, he’s usually relegated to making the simpler reads until his paint touches can increase. It’s a good thing he excels at these.

Both of these plays are repeatable ways for Sasser to find teammates in the dunker spots. Driving a closeout against an unsettled defense will always create opportunities, and a regular drive against subpar perimeter defenders will force the defense to rotate and open windows for nice layoff passes. The placement and timing in both of these clips are sublime, showing my general thought on Sasser’s playmaking: it’s not making the reads or executing on the windows that is the issue, it’s the leverage necessary to open those windows in the first place.

There are going to be instances where Sasser doesn’t even need a paint touch to make the right reads. In this instance, Sasser makes a simple read against nail help to work an open shot for a teammate:

Jaime Jaquez Jr., the real JJJ, attacks at the nail to deny the late shot clock drive. Alec Burks sees this coming on the wing and relocates to make an easier pass for Sasser. Again, more simple and repeatable actions for Marcus that can use his playmaking capabilities.

Still, we are left wanting, which brings us to the most important section.

Growth Areas

As Sasser’s reputation on scouting reports as a shooter begins to grow, he will have the chance to improve his rim pressure and must seize it.

It’s going to be difficult to keep up two-level scoring. On a team starved for rim pressure, defenses can play more aggressive coverages on Sasser’s on-ball actions and force him to beat them downhill. Even if that third level never reaches the heights of the other two, it needs to be in the back of the defenders’ minds once he takes a dribble.

And, as previously discussed, this will open up a new tree of playmaking options that he has shown he can capitalize on. He does not want for athleticism or floor reading ability. It is simply a question of using paint touches as a force multiplier for the already elite parts of his offensive game.

As an aside, I’d also like to see him going right more often on his movement threes. He’s capable of some Klay Thompson-esque curl screen/double-drag sets turning into movement shots. And with Detroit utterly floundering as a team Sasser has all the reason and opportunity he needs to experiment with new looks.

Defensive Overview

Unlike the first two players I have covered in this series (Peyton Watson, Aaron Nesmith) and a third covered by our own Lucas Kaplan (Jalen Johnson), Marcus Sasser is not a burgeoning defensive event creator. He’s good at stealing the ball (62nd percentile for point guards) but often tries too hard for them, which we will dig into soon. At 6’2″, blocks aren’t really on the table, especially without top-tier vertical athleticism. He’s posting a 0.2% block rate which sits him in the 12th percentile for point guards.

Old football commentators would probably describe Sasser as a “lunch pail guy” on the defensive end. He shows up, he does his job, he goes home. One of the more electric guard defenders in an extremely aggressive Houston Cougars system, this is no surprise. But there are some weak spots here I want to explore.

Perimeter Stopping Flashes

I’ll get this out of the way early – perimeter-stopping possessions like the ones you will see are rarely so clean. Only 3.2% of Sasser’s defensive possessions have come in true isolation. Granted, some of that is because players rarely want to attack him mano a mano. That doesn’t mean we are unable to learn anything from these chances.

Deny middle, deny middle, deny middle. Those are the first three rules of isolation containment. However, if the player you are guarding is the best of the best like Steph Curry, do your best to force him to pick up the drive and navigate him into the help. Sasser checks all of those boxes.

There are definite areas where Sasser is lacking. Specifically in a game against Philadelphia, those problems were plain for all to see while attempting to contain human roadrunner Tyrese Maxey.

Meep meep:

Later in the game, he overplays himself trying to deny the drive and ends up conceding a step-back three going to Maxey’s left.

Containing the elites of the league is a big ask for a rookie guard. However, he’ll have to clean up his footwork and hip movement to better contain the players that Detroit needs him to handle.

A bright spot of his 1v1 defense comes in the post. With the aforementioned height concerns teams are going to try hard to mismatch him on the blocks. That was especially evident against the Warriors, who have a lot of strong and long wings that like to get in the post and go to their right. Sasser was having none of that.

Getting low and strong to create leverage, anticipating the bumps and meeting them with the right amount of force, using verticality to contest shots. That’s a great bag of tools for a below-average guard in terms of height to have when teams try to exploit him.

Now, we get into the meat of his defense.

Screen Neglection

Screen navigation was one of the elite sells on Sasser coming out of college. In fact, our own Neema Djavadzadeh had that listed as a primary defensive strength in his pre-draft scouting report for Swish Theory.

Yet that strength has yet to translate in the league so far. Some of this is personnel, both teammates and coaches. Detroit employs a bevy of coverage-limited bigs that cannot play to the level of the screen and place a heavy burden on the guards for elite screen navigation. Adding kerosene to the fire, Detroit’s primary defensive assistant, Dan Burke, has taken a personal leave of absence from the team. It goes without saying that whatever Burke is dealing with takes priority over basketball, but that doesn’t lessen the impact that their general disorganization on that end has on a player like Sasser.

I found myself shocked by how often Sasser goes underneath the screen on pick-and-roll. This is part strategy because going over to deny the shot pushes the ballhandler into the paint against drop bigs, which in theory would be a boon for the defense. That’s really not the case with their big man room, unfortunately, so Sasser is forced under quite often to protect his bigs.

That need to go under has left Detroit’s defense exposed on the perimeter with great frequency.

This isn’t a skill concern for me with Sasser – if the scheme dictates to go under and the team gets burned by that, he’s simply following orders and is not responsible for the results.

What concerns me is the general technique he shows on screens relative to his college display of talent in this area.

He’s not anticipating the screens well and fails to take decisive angles that get him into favorable trail positions. This could be a case of having new teammates and struggling with communication. It takes two to tango when it comes to guard screen navigation on pick-and-roll actions. The certainty that comes from playing with his former Houston teammates vs. his current Detroit ones cannot be discounted here.

The perimeter defense bleeds over into our next category, which is another case of pre-draft strength turning into an early weakness.

Throwing Hands

Whether in help or on the ball, Sasser is one of the most hands-on perimeter defenders you will find.

It tends to get him in a lot of trouble. He gambles early and often, and the payoff isn’t always there.

The positive is that it seems as if the majority of these gambles do pay off. It’s an overall credit to Sasser’s awareness and decision-making that this tendency doesn’t get him burned.

This is a huge asset for Sasser when playing trail defense, which he does often as a result of their scheme and his early screen navigation issues.

Those quick hands are a boon for his nail help when playing off shooters to contain drives and pick-and-rolls.

You’ve probably noticed that Sasser’s steals generate a lot of immediate transition chances. He is wrangling the high-value chances and turning them into points for his teammates at the other end. The value of that cannot be overstated.

However, there are other issues off the ball worth mentioning before we wrap up here.

Late Closeouts

This is a minor concern, but one worth noting.

I’ve seen a few instances of Marcus missing X-outs on the perimeter – in general, with defenses switching and rotating aggressively off the ball, you cannot be late to recognize these scenarios.

Missing a switch is one thing. Failing to close out because of a lack of effort is another, which is the case here against Garrison Mathews:

In general, I thought Sasser was pretty solid in terms of closing out, but we are on the chase for perfection here.

With that in mind, let’s look at the defensive room for improvement.

Growth Areas

First and foremost is the screen navigation. This really needs to be better – scheme aside, anticipation and ability to get skinny and move around the screen must improve.

Second, he has to learn to be less reliant on his hands to do the work defensively. He has strength and long arms (+5 wingspan) that can do a lot of the difficult parts. Let your feet and body do the work, and reserve the swipes for when the opportunities present themselves.

Lastly, I’d like to see more from Marcus off the ball defensively. The nail help he offers has been strong, but the closeouts need to go up a tick in effort. He’s also capable of better rotations on the whole to affect shots.

So, where do we go from here?

Future Outlook

With the personnel Detroit boasts on the perimeter, Sasser is an important gap filler on both ends of the floor – provided he can capitalize on his upside.

Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are paint-pressuring/inside-the-arc scoring options and playmakers who need credible spacers and relocators to take extra help off their plates. The advantages they create also require guys who can make plays on the second side by attacking closeouts, driving and hitting cutters, or simply pulling up from midrange against an unsettled defense. Marcus Sasser can be that guy.

On the defensive end, Detroit badly needs a primary guard-stopping option to make Cade/Ivey viable on the floor. Ausar Thompson is no slouch in this respect but is better utilized defending bigger wings. If someone can take primary guard assignments off his plate, it also puts him in a better spot to get in the paint and showcase his ridiculous defensive event creation. Once again on paper, Sasser is an ideal complementary fit.

All of this falls apart to some degree if the screen navigation remains subpar on the defensive end. Ditto for the paint touches on the offensive end. If he turns into a quality 3 and some D point guard, that’s not a bad outcome for Detroit, especially with the immediacy of the return on investment they have seen.

That being said, I believe Sasser is capable of much more. This could be the non-star guard option Detroit needs to go from a “fun group of talent” to producing actual results. And while they figure out the vision for this franchise, Sasser gets to explore what heights he can truly reach.

The post Finding a Role: Marcus Sasser appeared first on Swish Theory.

Whether or not I agree with that decision is another question entirely. What is important to me is that Golden State uses this pick to maximize the current roster, whether that means packaging it in a trade or taking a player they can project a role for. Evaluating these draft options goes beyond just the talent of the player. Some players I would love at 19 in a vacuum would be bad fits for the roster or the timeline, whereas others who have later first-round or early second-round must be considered at 19 because of polish and need.

We’ll go through this draft at every position, seeing who in range makes sense and who Golden State should avoid. Most importantly, we will explore the why. I will also add a prospect at each position that would be a home run if they slide to 19, and some second-round options if the Warriors explore a drastic trade back or buy their way into the second round. I’m not going to cover any trade-up options here: if you watched last year and thought this team could use another high-stakes 19-year-old, I cannot help you.

Guard

Stop The Fall: Cason Wallace, Kentucky and Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas

I’m not going to say anything about these two prospects that will hold a candle to what Tyler Wilson of this very same site wrote on the two early this week, so if you want to learn more about the two, this is prerequisite reading.

If the Warriors find themselves anywhere close to drafting either of these two, they will be extremely lucky. Especially if Cason Wallace is the pick. Despite being a one-and-done, he’s incredibly polished on both ends of the floor. Doing so as a combo guard is very impressive. He can function on and off the ball offensively, showing the skills to be a reliable playmaker with the athleticism and shooting potential to be a weapon in the motion offense.

The defense speaks for itself: he has the athleticism, motor, and production to back up the film. His 3.8 dBPM ranked fifth amongst all freshmen regardless of position last season, and 3 of the 4 above him are first-round caliber bigs. Pairing that sort of defensive impact with an offensive game that lacks any glaring weakness screams immediate contributor.

Nick Smith Jr. isn’t as much of a strong bet on the defensive end as Cason, but the offensive upside is tantalizing. A lights-out shooter with deep range in high school and the EYBL circuit, nagging knee and wrist injuries prevented him from showing his full scoring and playmaking prowess at Arkansas. He’s electric off the dribble when healthy, and shows the kind of hustle necessary to add some defensive impact in the long term. I wouldn’t be sprinting to the podium as I would be for Cason, but a brisk jog would do just fine.

Pass: Kobe Bufkin, Michigan

A young returning sophomore, Bufkin is flying up draft boards after his athletic testing matched the run he went on late in the season. It’s the perfect storm for an eyebrow-raising draft day rise. But even if he were available at 19, I don’t think Bufkin fits this Warriors roster as well as the previous guards.

He doesn’t have the bankable defense or consistent on-ball playmaking that Cason Wallace brings to the table, and I don’t think he brings the same kind of offensive upside you get from Nick Smith Jr. In theory, he fits as a combo guard off the bench, but I’m not sure if there is a bankable skill that will keep him in Steve Kerr’s lineup. Let a team with a longer leash and lower expectations figure out his game.

Draft: Keyonte George, Baylor

If Golden State stands to lose Donte DiVincenzo in free agency, Keyonte George would make for an excellent and more controllable replacement.

Despite pedestrian shooting numbers on the surface, George should be a great (if not elite) shooter off the dribble and catch at the next level. He oozes natural tough, and can easily shoot it out to 28-29 feet at all kinds of funky angles. Look no further than this:

He also has a penchant for creating long twos in isolation, a strong sign of his overall creation upside. He has the juice to attack closeouts to start and makes good passing decisions to boot, profiling as a strong secondary creating/shooting guard next to Jordan Poole off the bench. Though George is not the most technically sound in terms of on and off ball defense, he has an in-your-face demeanor and hustle that keeps his opponents unsettled. Another effort guy to bother tough bench matchups and take things off Poole’s defensive plate would be a huge add.

Draft: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

This might be my favorite fit for the Warriors at any position.

Hood-Schifino plays with a game well beyond his years. A methodical ballhandler and incredible passer, he’s a strong defender on the ball and from a team perspective. Shooting was a major concern going into his freshman season, but he did a lot to quell those concerns with a 38% mark on above-the-break threes, the closest equivalent to NBA range. If the shooting is real, he becomes a lot harder to leave open, opening up his superb downhill game.

JHS would be able to carve out a fine role even if the shooting doesn’t climb to average or above average. His ability to make plays at his size is uncanny, and he makes up for the lack of explosion on his drives with plenty of dribble craft and finishing skill. He’s got a pretty smooth pull-up jumper at 6’6″, and fits the profile of a secondary creating combo guard with real point guard upside. This kind of polished two-way guard game in a young guard is rare, and Golden State should jump on the opportunity to pair him with Jordan Poole.

Second-Round Buy: Marcus Sasser, Houston

If Golden State addresses another position at 19 or trades out of the pick entirely, they should heavily consider buying into the top of the 2nd round for Marcus Sasser.

A four-year player at Houston, Sasser brings production, experience, and a winning pedigree to whichever team is lucky enough to have him. The ability to defend all manners of guard, whether they are quick, strong, or just blazing fast, is a huge asset. Just enjoy this minute plus of Sassy (lmk lmk) getting after it on defense:

Not only is the defense very strong and highly projectable, but there is more meat on the bone offensively than most would think. The outside shooting by itself would give him offensive utility, but Sasser has shown he can create for himself and looks comfortable doing it. Per Barttorvik, Sasser hit 40% of his long twos with 77.5% coming from self-created situations. This is a huge sign for his isolation and second-side potential, and a big add for a team desperate for secondary and tertiary creation. He also made a solid 64% of his shots at the rim with 81.5% (!!!) unassisted. Sasser LOVES getting to his step-back jumper, especially when attacking closeouts, and it is a thing of beauty.

A great fit next to Jordan Poole, another hard-nosed perimeter defender, and a strong shooter with creation juice. Oh, and he’s not a teenager. Sign me up.

Second-Round Buy: Ricky Council IV, Arkansas

If I write anything about Ricky Council IV without including his sickening dunk reel, what is the point?

Council has a case for the best athlete in the class not named Thompson, Henderson, or Wembanyama. Not only is he explosive, a ridiculous leaper, and wildly strong for a guard, he has the functional athleticism that I tend to fall for. Council IV is ambidextrous, and leverages this hand-eye talent into some really strong handle and passing flashes:

The shooting is a major question mark: he has a quick motion and solid form, but a very low release point that I don’t think will translate at the next level unless he can raise it to better counter closeouts. Even if the shooting is a concern, the sheer dominance in transition and off the drive will bring plenty of offensive value. He has shown the chops to cut and move as needed, and could fill a super-GP2 role for the Dubs with some off-the-dribble juice as a bonus.

I’m also in love with the defense. Council IV has quick footwork, moves his hips well, and shows a strong blend of aggression and technical soundness that matches the athletic tools.

I’m also just pro-Hog. Any player Eric Musselman touches, the Warriors should try to get their hands on. And he’s certainly not the last Arkansas player we will be discussing.

Guard Wrap-Up

The strongest and deepest position in the draft, the Warriors should have several options on the board if they decide to go guard, or try to buy in later. There are several players I had to leave out for the sake of brevity as well. It feels likely Jordan Poole will have a new bench running mate in the backcourt after today.

Wing

Stop The Fall: Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite

Once again, I have nothing to say beyond what the brilliant people of our Swish Theory staff have already said. You need to read this debut article by our own Avinash Chauhan.

Are you done? Good. If you’re lying, think about what you have done before we move on.

Miller is a bit of a double-down on the Jonathan Kuminga experiment: a recent starter by basketball standards, Miller jumped from obscurity into dominating one of the best leagues in the world. The frame and athleticism are crazy, and even though the shot is a major problem area, Miller can drive and slash as good as any nearly 7-foot wing. I think this is the most project like player I would want Golden State taking. The physical tools and rim pressure potential are just too good to pass up. Even if it creates some early headaches, this could be the backup wing solution for years to come. No matter where Miller goes tonight, it will be too low. Find a way to get this man to the Bay.

Draft: Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State

On a different end of the spectrum for wings is Brice Sensabaugh. He’s like Ball Don’t Stop met with a gamma radiation incident and grew legs, started to walk, and began getting some damn buckets.

Deep shooting range, touch, an ability to hit shots off bizarre footwork patterns, and a damn good handle. At 6’6″, Brice is a ready-made scoring forward for the NBA, and could contribute at all three levels. The scoring prowess by itself is enough to get him a rotation spot on a Warriors team that, as we have mentioned, is starved for self-creation at all positions.

Outside of pure buckets, Sensabaugh put up solid rebounding numbers, which helps bring up a defensive game that is lacking in relation to his wing contemporaries in this class. He’s smart, physically coordinated, and has good size. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Brice becomes a passable wing defender and can bring help from a team perspective.

Sensabaugh would be an instant shot of life for the bench offense, taking some burden off Jordan Poole and giving them a potentially elite catch-and-shoot option/closeout attacker. The need is there for the Warriors, and Sensabaugh can slide right in at the 3.

Pass: Jett Howard, Michigan

This is another case of “love the prospect, hate the fit”. Howard came in as a highly touted prospect to Michigan, but his one-and-done season was arguably a disappointment. The size is great and the shooting/creating potential is evident, but there are lots of other concerns that override that potential for me.

Don’t get me wrong: the shooting range and handle are very real, and he has shown some really strong passing chops. You can see it jump off the screen every time Howard plays.

The main concern for me is that this is the exact player Steve Kerr is not inclined to play. Just look at Patrick Baldwin Jr., who had an absolute strap and could contribute on the glass, and found himself at the end of the bench the whole season. Yes, Howard has far more on-ball offensive potential, but he’s as close to a zero on the glass as you can be for a 6’8″ combo forward. He’s also not an event creator defensively, making it an even tougher proposition that he would get instant playing time.

Furthermore, I feel that Howard’s offensive game is too perimeter-reliant. He wasn’t good at using his handle and frame to create trips to the line, giving him a low floor for each game offensively. If the shot isn’t falling, the playmaking suffers, and all the warts really start to show. If this wasn’t a team trying to compete for a fifth championship, I’d be more in on Howard as a fit, but he is just as likely to sink a roster spot for the first couple of seasons as he is to contribute to the rotation. That’s not a risk Golden State can take right now.

Draft: Kris Murray, Iowa

Yes. That is my answer to Kris Murray, Golden State Warrior.

Though not as polished as his brother Keegan, who had an outstanding rookie season in Sacramento, Kris brings ready-made shooting, touch, and knowledge of his own game. Not the biggest or most athletic, I’m always impressed with his awareness of his own skillset and abilities. You rarely see Kris attempt a play he cannot finish; he knows his limitations, and is excellent as working within those confines. More of a functional athlete than an explosive one, Kris is still capable of rocking the rim when he gets going.

What I appreciate the most about his game is the defense. He’s incredible at moving his feet, keeping the right arms up, staying vertical when rotating, and picking out the right spots to move and use his frame. This clip right here is the basic sell on his defense: responsibility, activity, and staying out of trouble spots:

Murray could be a solid weak-side rotator who poses a challenge when switched out on the perimeter with his footwork skill. He’s certainly not going to be the defender that breaks the defense, and that is a very valuable trait considering the defensively sound bigs and wings the team currently possesses. Of all prospects in this class (save one we have yet to discuss), he’s the best bet to crack Steve Kerr’s rotation and contribute immediately.

Pass: Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine

In a similar vein to Jett Howard, there are just too many short and long-term concerns to justify the Warriors taking on a project like Maxwell Lewis. He’s a great prospect in his own right, there is no doubt about that. But considering the state of the roster, it’s just a poor fit for both sides.

Lewis has tons of offensive potential as a movement shooter with good on-ball skills, and has shown some passing/handle flashes to boot. He could stand to add some weight, but the 6’7″ lengthy frame would be ideal at the 3 spot. Unfortunately, there are serious athletic concerns that give me pause about the risk-reward. The foot speed and technical skills on the defensive end are lacking, and he’s not great at flipping his hips in quick succession to deal with side-to-side dribbles. Footwork was the calling card for Moses Moody two drafts ago as a way to make up for athletic limitations, and his defense has hardly panned out to date. I’m even more doubtful of Lewis’ impact on that end.

Even if he finds a niche taking on guard assignments defensively, it’s a tough proposition to get him in the lineup. There’s no ignoring the talent and potential, but how long he takes to get there should have the Warriors looking elsewhere.

Second-Round Buy: Julian Strawther, Gonzaga

A junior coming out of Gonzaga, I have been dreaming about Strawther in a Warriors jersey since his freshman year in Spokane.

At 6’7″, Strawther is one of the more prolific shooters in the entire draft. He built on a strong first two seasons of catch-and-shoot ball with an elite season from deep, hitting 40.5% of his 195 attempts from deep. Just look at the above-the-break marks for this season and you can see elite NBA shooting potential:

His 3-point and free throw marks have gone up in all three years, and with his penchant for getting to the line when attacking closeouts, the scoring floor is really strong for an off-ball wing. It helps that he has limitless confidence and ice in his veins that would put D’Angelo Russell to shame.

He’s no playmaker or major rim threat, but plays a perfect shooting wing role. On the defensive end, there is work to do. When going up against NBA-level talent, he looks well behind the curve. This game against Pepperdine (and Maxwell Lewis) brought serious concerns to light:

Strawther has made up for this lack of defensive prowess in recent years with strong defensive rebound numbers for a perimeter guy, and I think he has the overall feel to be a decent rotational defender. Whether or not he can get stops on the perimeter is a huge question, but when you’re going for second-round guys, you have to take the good with the bad.

And my God is there some good in that strap on his shoulder.

Second-Round Buy: Jordan Walsh, Arkansas

The polar opposite of Julian Strawther in almost every sense, Walsh screams late-second defensive steal.

Yet another Razorback on this list, you can make a real argument that Walsh is the most well-rounded wing defender of the entire class. Physical tools, foot/hip speed, technically sound, strong in rotation and communication, he truly has it all.

It seems likely that Jonathan Kuminga will be traded elsewhere over role concerns, leaving a defensive hole in the bench wing group. Walsh can fill that and more. If Golden State can add more guard creation to take things off Jordan Poole’s plate, Walsh slots right in as the defensive specialist off the bench to put the clamps on all guard and wing matchups.

Nobody is going to confuse him for a 3-and-D guy anytime soon: there are very few indicators that he can develop a strong jumper at the next level. The pull-up twos can be rough and he’s a middling free throw shooter in addition to the 27.8% mark from deep. But he oozes athletic potential, and even a low-30s three point mark could open up the lane on closeouts, where he gets to flash his powerful strides and ridiculous wingspan.

It’s not the biggest upside play you’ll find in this draft, but you would be hard-pressed to find a 20-year-old that Steve Kerr would be more willing to play. A Gary Payton II/Jordan Walsh bench unit would be nails against opposing bench scorers.

Wing Wrap-Up

The talent in this group will really dry up by the time the Warriors are on the clock, but there is plenty to look at later in the draft. I debated heavily over adding Jaylen Clark, Amari Bailey, Sidy Cissoko, and Andre Jackson Jr. to the list, which speaks to the depth of wings once you get past the lottery. There will be options aplenty if Mike Dunleavy is looking for him, but there are certainly some land-mine projects they have to avoid stepping on.

Big

Stop The Fall: Dereck Lively II, Duke

Close your eyes and picture the perfect Warriors starting center. Don’t get caught daydreaming about Kevon Looney (which I am guilty of): think about the ideal frame, skillset, and strengths to fit their mold. What you are picturing is exactly what Dereck Lively II brings to the table.

Leading the country in defensive BPM last season, Lively II is one of the best shot-blocking prospects in recent memory. He erased a whopping 12.8% of shots when he was on the floor, placing him third in the country; the entire rest of the top five is comprised of seniors, while Lively II is a true freshman. Dereck is also just a silly vertical threat on offense, with a massive catch radius for lobs and tips that makes him a menace in the restricted area.

There is also some reason to think his natural touch will expand over time. A 3/21 mark on long twos and threes doesn’t scream future floor spacer, but he could gradually turn into a midrange threat that can hit a corner three every once in a while. Even if his offensive game is limited to within 3-5 feet of the basket, he’s the perfect dunker spot threat for this offense. If the screening develops, he’s damn good on the roll. He posted an 86% finishing mark on the roll with Duke, and though the volume isn’t there he can fill his offensive role to a T in Steve Kerr’s offense.

Controlling the glass and dominating the paint on both ends, Lively II could walk in and be a plus backup to Kevon Looney, and a more than capable starter if the team needs an extra vertical threat. This would be a home run in terms of talent, need, and fit for both team and player. I need it.

Draft: James Nnaji, Barcelona

There is a real dearth of bigs in the first round after Wembanyama and Lively II go off the board, but talent is out there. Though less polished than Lively II, James Nnaji fits in Golden State for all the same reasons.

He’s a prolific shot blocker, smart paint defender, and serious vertical threat around the cup. Being that good in Europe as an 18 year old bodes very well for his future, as the offensive environment is much more similar to NBA pace and spacing compared to the NCAA.

There is also a clear upside here for Golden State to tap into. He’s had flashes with the ball in his hands, and has shown the atlheticism and footwork necessary to guard out to the perimeter on pick-and-roll. Even if he’s mostly a drop big in this system, the ability to switch up coverages and keep the offense on their toes will be a major asset if it develops. He’ll need to rebound at a higher level than previously shown to make a true impact, but Nnaji could hold down a rotational center spot before his rookie contract is up if he can stay healthy.

Second-Round Buy: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

You want an instant rotation big in this draft? Look no further than TJD.

If he somehow manages to make it past the Nuggets and their bevy of picks (he is reportedly a main target for Denver), Golden State needs to blow up the phones trying to buy a pick. TJD is smart, experienced, athletic, and immensely talented on offense. He will be a positive force on the glass at both ends, more than holds his own with paint defense, and would be a dribble handoff maestro in this offense. A true center who can put the ball on the deck and make extra passes is something they have not had in this Warriors era, and it would be a match made in heaven on the offensive side of the ball.

Big Wrap-Up

The bigs are certainly shallower in this class, but Golden State could still find themselves with a ready-made contributor if they play their cards right. There are a couple of home runs here in my eyes, and though unlikely, Dereck Lively II might be the best fit for them in the entire draft. Keep an eye on a trade up to snag him.

Putting a Bow On Things

You probably saw several themes emerging in this article: target potential contributors, avoid long-term projects, but don’t be afraid to capitalize on massive upside if it falls right in your lap. It seems clear after the Chris Paul trade that Golden State will hang onto this pick and look to add reliable depth, but you never know with this front office. A few years down the line, this could be a pick that makes or breaks the end of this championship window. No pressure.

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Sidelined by turf toe in his Junior year, Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser is a National Player of the Year candidate. The two level scorer was looking like a first round pick last season prior to injury, which saw him sidelined for the Cougars’ Elite 8 run. Now, he returns as the main piece of the Cougars as they look to make a championship run under Kelvin Sampson. As the top dog of the team, the bright light is shining on Sasser. With improvements to his production, he could likely be one of the first Seniors off the board come June.

Offense

Prior to injury, Sasser was struggling around the rim, shooting just 42.1%. However, this was on just 25 attempts, and he was looking to get to the rim significantly less often than in the past (4% of his plays compared to 14% his sophomore year). In the year prior, Sasser shot a respectable 58.5%, one that he is probably more likely to replicate this season. However, this is still a weak point for Sasser offensively. He is a bit contact averse around the rim, leading to a lower free throw rate. However, driving and getting to the line isn’t where Sasser does the most of his damage. The majority of his rim makes come off attacking closeouts or in transition anyway, as Sasser often elects to be a jump-shooter instead.

And rightfully so! Over 60% of Sasser’s total shot attempts as a Cougar have come from behind the arc, and for good reason. He’s a career 36.4% 3 point shooter, and was shooting 43.7% from 3 prior to injury last season. His quick release makes it hard for defenders to contest him. His ability to shoot off the dribble as well as his ball-handling combine to create a deadly deep-range scorer. Sasser shot 46% on catch and shoot 3s and 40% on off the dribble 3s, showing he can beat a defense from deep in a multitude of ways.

Sasser also gets plenty of reps as a playmaker in Houston’s offense and has shown a willingness to make the right pass. Not a great playmaker, Sasser is still able to run the PnR effectively, and could probably be more effective if he is able to improve around the rim. Playing with a strong screener and lob threat like Jarace Walker could open Sasser’s playmaking up this season, as Houston’s front court is more talented than in previous seasons.

Defense

A gritty Houston defense can definitely attribute to the energy of Sasser’s defense, but after 4 years of Kelvin Sampson, it probably becomes second nature. Sasser excels on his instincts defensively, disrupting PnRs by navigating through screens and reading passing lanes before they even open at times. Sasser does a great job of interrupting the flow of the other teams offense. Either knocking balls loose on drives, helping onto players to disrupt their movement or blocking off passing lanes.

As an off-ball defender, he glues onto his man and fights through screens well. Houston likes to switch, especially with their small size so Sasser has experience guarding up, albeit not great at it. He is often beat by longer or quicker defenders, however his 6’7″ wingspan does help him engulf other guards. At the very least, Sasser can be expected to hold his own defensively against guard players.

Conclusion

In his first game of the season, Sasser scored 21 points on 50% shooting from the field and from deep. He showed off his defensive intensity against a poor Northern Colorado team, swarming them from the jump, leading to 4 steals. Becoming a better scorer inside the arc will be key for Sasser, but it is a jump-shooters league at the next level. As long as the 3 continues to fall, and Houston continues to run through Sasser, he could likely become a National Player of the Year, and earn a roster spot in the NBA next season.

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