This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.

Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.

Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.

Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.

Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.

Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

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Paolo Banchero stepped into the league a walking mismatch.

A 6’10” 250lb tank in transition and North-South force of nature has the tight handles, clean footwork, and high feel to one-vs-one anyone in sight.

He operates both ends of the pick-and-roll with ease, relentlessly attacking the rack with finesse, body and ball control to maintain balance on drives and jumpers.

Banchero beats up bigs on the block, glides past guards on the wing, and wedges past wings inbetween; Paolo speeds past smalls and overpowers the powerful.

Raised in Seattle, Washington, a young hoops fan grew up rooting for the local Huskies squad, attending games and cheering for collegiate standouts Markelle Fultz and Terrence Ross.

He admired tall tough shot-making midrange assassins, incepting hours and hours of highlights from unstoppable scorers, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant.

His mother, Rhonda Smith-Banchero, was a former professional basketball player who retired as the Washington Huskies’ all-time leading scorer.

She would develop the skills that define his game on the court and instill a decision-making process off of it, decision-making that may have once saved his life.

In 2018, Police held a fifteen year-old Banchero and his seventeen year-old friend, Washington State guard Noah Williams, at gunpoint. The crime? The teenagers were leaving a concert, driving a Jeep. Police were looking for a “reportedly stolen Jeep.”

“I had a situation with the police when I was 15, where me and my friend had got pulled over, and they pulled guns on us, and we got arrested. They had suspected we stole the car, but it wasn’t [true]. They had the wrong car and everything, so it was a situation that I had to deal with back then,” Banchero told @MarcJSpears in this incredible story,

Banchero and Williams would pursue a lawsuit against the King County Sheriff’s Office, with goals of receiving a public apology and effecting change.

On Sept. 6, 2019, the Associated Press reported that the King County Sheriff’s Office was ordered to apologize, pay $80,000, and implement new use-of-force guidelines to settle a federal civil rights lawsuit brought by two African American teens, Williams and Banchero, who say they were wrongly held at gunpoint at a concert.

Banchero’s coachability allowed his teachers to help mold a decision-making process.

“I’ve had some encounters where I had to do the right thing in situations that were tricky. Just knowing what my mom had taught me and using that was big,” Banchero said.

“Paolo was always driven,” his mother, Smith-Banchero says, “Any sport, we would tell him, ‘Don’t go out there and mess around… ‘Don’t practice bad shots. Don’t practice that mess.’ And he was just always listening. Coachable, even from that age.”

“Paolo is really coachable. And a big reason for that is because of the family he comes from… All he is and all he ever hopes to be is a result of his mother,” – Legendary Duke Coach K

Banchero goes on to praise Coach K for taking his raw talent and helping “blend it all”, via the Knuckleheads Podcast with Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles:

“(Coach K) taught me how to be more efficient. How to use my size and god-given ability to keep things simple. Helped me when I got to the league just blend it all, blend the skill with being able to dominate. He helped me a lot though.” – Paolo Banchero, via Knuckleheads Podcast / Player Tribune

Banchero highlights his current head coach Jamahl Mosley for giving himself and teammates freedom to play through mistakes with the expectation of playing hard on both ends of the floor in return:

“(Coach Mosley)’s helped me a tremendous amount, too; and he’s been there for me the whole time, he’s been real hands on the whole time. Since I’ve first got there, summer league practices, him being there, damn near going through drills with me, playing D, and just always being a voice.

He’s preached me playing with freedom, but also, having to play hard, play defense, not just be a one-way player. He lets me play through mistakes; he lets everyone play through mistakes.

He a coach who’s gonna let us play as long as we giving effort and playing the right way. He’s a great coach, man; it’s a blessing.” – Paolo Banchero, via Knuckleheads Podcast / Player Tribune

Paolo’s Historic Rookie Season

Paolo Banchero just put up one of the greatest rookie seasons in the history of the sport.

Perhaps his most impressive trait as a first-year player, Banchero burst out of the gates rating among the all-time greats at racking up foul calls as a rookie.

Unlike some high-volume whistle-drawers, Banchero collects free points at the pinstripe: Paolo shoots 74% from the free throw line.

Even though it’s the least entertaining aspect of the game to fans, free throws are still the most efficient shot around.

FT% serves as a relevant predictor for future scorers, revealing hard-working athletes willing to spend the time to develop touch talent into working ball-skills.

Banchero being the best in his class and already amongst the league leaders at racking up fouls while taking the free points at an efficient rate reveals Paolo’s foul-drawing to be one of the best bets of reliable scoring around the league going forward.

How does Banchero generate so many free throws as a rookie? Sharing similarities in the face-up attack with Zion Williamson, like unstoppable downhill drives with a head of steam, Bullyball Banchero makes light of the opposition, drawing fouls by staying light on his feet before gracefully exploding at any time.

As lead decision-makers, these primary playmakers take advantage of parallel processing skills to keep track of all the moving parts, proprioception to perceive the position and movement of their own body through space, and processing speed to evaluate the next best action to take.

Nothing rocks the house like a Paolo Power Slam.

Paolo finished the season ranked 19th all-time in Free Throw Volume among Rookies since 1959, tying Zion with 7.4 FTA per game.

Some of the most dominant scorers to ever play can be seen in this data visualization of high-volume rookie free throw takers, with Rick Barry, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson leading the group in efficiency.

Video Visualizing Paolo Banchero’s standing among the Top-25 All-Time NBA Rookies in Free Throw Attempts Per Game Volume since 1958-59 with FT% Efficiency via interactive data visualization in Python.

Paolo quickly put up performances on par with any rookie before him.

Oct 13, 2022: Paolo Banchero signs sneaker deal with Jordan Brand

Oct 19, 2022: Paolo Banchero throws down JUMPMAN Poster Power Slam in the first official game of his NBA career

Making his jumpman contract official in game one, Banchero scored more points in his NBA debut (27 PTS) than any rookie since Allen Iverson twenty seven years ago. Only three No. 1 overall picks since 1969 have dropped 25+ PTS, 5+ REB, and 5+ AST in their NBA debut: LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Paolo Banchero

Paolo recorded two Career-Highs in his tenth career game with 33 PTS & 16 REB, joining LeBron as the only teenagers in NBA history to record a game with 30+ PTS & 15+ REB while becoming the first Magic Rookie since Shaquille O’Neal to record a game with 30+ PTS & 10+REB.

The very next game, Paolo became the fifth Teenager in NBA History to record consecutive 30-point games, joining LeBron, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, and Devin Booker.

Paolo’s 20-PT Game Tracker:

1. Six straight 20-point games to start a career ties Grant Hill, Dominique Wilkins, and Oscar Robertson for the third-most of any player.
2. The last three players to score 20+ points in 15 of the first 20 games of their career: Michael Jordan, Zion Williamson, and Paolo Banchero
3. Finished first season with 40 20-point games, the same number as Rookie LeBron.

First 15 Games: Banchero became the fifth player in NBA history since 1950 to have 300+ PTS, 100+ REBS, & 50+ ASTS in his first 15 career games, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bernard King, Sidney Wicks, and Oscar Robertson.

First 31 Games: Since the ABA-NBA merger, the only three Rookies to reach 600 points, 200 rebounds, and 120 assists through their first 31 games are Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Paolo Banchero, via @jkubatko of Basketball Reference.

First Season: Banchero is one of nine rookies ever to average 19.5 PPG – 6.5 RPG – 3.5 APG, joining Luka Doncic, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, Sidney Wicks, Elgin Baylor, and Blake Griffin.

Winning the NBA’s 2023 Rookie of the Year in a 98-2 landslide vote, Paolo Banchero became the third Orlando Magic player to win the award alongside Shaquille O’Neal and Mike Miller, who happens to now be Banchero’s agent.

Walking mismatches gain advantages for different reasons as players who can score on any position defender 1-5, no matter the size or speed of the man in front of them, who create scoring opportunities for themselves and teammates no matter who or what the defense throws at them.

Possessing taller height, soft touch, and sound footwork on the block creates an advantage for any player posting up.

Players who fly past defenders on the perimeter, accelerating without a screen and decelerating on a dime show an advantage in burst and body control; having the handles to find angles and dribble drive through defenses without turning over the rock reveals ball control.

Scorers who combine these advantage in faceup and backdown situations tend to be effective in ISO and Post-Ups, playtypes without a screen.

Playmakers with vision and a combination of these advantages may be more effective with the help of a screen running handoffs or operating Pick-and-Roll.

Timing for teammates and understanding the offense can help players measure up cuts from off-ball wing or backdoor baseline. Rim-rollers with soft hands and big bounce can create vertical advantages as lob threats.

Catch-and-shoot skills for players who can knock down a jumper from deep from a standstill, especially from the corners, tend to be efficient in Spot Up situations. Those shooters become even more effective in Spot Up when they put the ball on the floor off a pump-fake and dribble-drive against closeouts to keep the defense rotating.

Shooters with agility, conditioning, and the ablity to catch and shoot off the run create varying advantages off the ball running Off Screens like elevator/iverson/stagger sets through the paint, or into Handoffs around the arc, through any angle they need to create a split second opening needed to get a shot off before the defender can contest.

Stars who score on and off the ball, drive and kick when drawing help, and look to draw fouls through contact combine a multitude of these advantages into an all-around shooting profile, becoming scoring creators making decisions on a play-by-play basis who bend defenses first before reading and reacting second.

Could Paolo Banchero become a heliocentric scoring option, a LeBron or Luka type point-forward who runs the entire offense, with the ball in his hands every play and nearly every shot being the result of a decision made by the star player?

If Paolo scores at good efficiency with higher usage, that may be worth exploring. Generally speaking, though, championship teams are built with more balance in mind. Maximizing a player’s box score production is one thing, whereas creating a sustainable system that consistently creates good shots is another challenge entirely.

Finding ways to make life easier for the team’s best player is a primary goal. Flanking that player with other good decision-making connectors opens up the floor in a variety of ways. Instead of allowing defenses to overload the paint to stop one star from driving at the rim, a well-defined system forces that defense to worry about all the ways that star can beat them all at once.

Consider one of the only ways to slow down Steph Curry. Arguably the best on-ball scorer in the league, someone who perennially tops the league in ISO and P&R efficiency, Steph is magic with the rock in his hands. However, one critique in the all-time scorer discussions is that Steph can’t shoot over multiple defenders like a Kevin Durant; when Curry has the ball, trapping double teams can force the pass.

This strategy tends to happen when a player is so good, the defense’s only hope is to send a second defender at that player, leaving somebody wide open. The defense would rather guard 4 players with 3 defenders than play straight up against this star. This results in open shots for teammates, which is by definition good offense.

Why don’t the Warriors run the Harden Rockets offense, endless on-ball reps for the most efficient on-ball scorer in the league? Because Steve Kerr realizes the benefits of balance, keeping the entire team involved, and most importantly, building an entire system around the threat of Steph Curry rather than relying on the production of Steph Curry.

Consider On-Ball Steph as the ace up Coach Kerr’s playbook sleeve. Even though Curry is more than capable of running the offense every play, why ask Steph to create a good shot for the team 50+ times per game when the team can use Curry’s off-ball gravity to create a good shot for someone every possession without the tradeoff of overtasking the individual with decision-making fatigue?

By building an off-ball screening system of endless relocating handoffs, defenses not only have to worry about the ball, but now have to keep track of the greatest shooter’s whereabouts on the court at all times, living in perilous fear that a heartbreaking dagger could launch from deep at any moment.

The Warriors thrive on off-ball movement, handoffs, and screens; could Paolo emulate the Draymond role as a handoff short-roll playmaker surrounded by shooters, with the added benefit of Banchero threatening to drive, kick, or rise for the shot at any time?

Could an NBA offense rely entirely on the scoring creation play-by-play decision-making of Paolo Banchero? Probably.

Would that offense maximize the team’s chances of winning, or simply maximize the star player’s output in the box score?

Penciling himself in for the Finals before the season started for nearly a decade, LeBron is the one player who has been able to single-handedly will his team to the biggest stage over and over again, sometimes with little help. While LeBron’s Finals appearances essentially serve as the exception to the rule that ‘teams win championships’, even James needed multiple co-stars to finally get over the hump.

Those Cavs and Heat title teams relied on ISO turn-taking more than a system bigger than one player, yet that overwhelming firepower was enough to win multiple rings.

Could Banchero emulate a scorer combining elements in the face-up game between Zion, Melo, and LeBron as a bucket-getting driving force who needs no help to get buckets, draw fouls, and create looks for himself and opportunties to kick to others?

Banchero would need a sizable jump in impact to be anywhere near LeBron’s level, but Rookies who average 20 PPG and 7.4 FTA are rare, and like Zion before him, that superstar jump may arrive sooner than later.

Who are the ideal player types to surround Paolo with, ISO killers like Kyrie next to LeBron and Ingram next to Zion with 3pt shooters, or as many well-rounded good basketball playing connectors as possible?

Banchero’s scoring versatility as a pull-up threat, play-finishing downhill force, and all-around scoring creator big wing helps the team he’s on keep their play-calling options open.

The Magic should explore every avenue to constructing a sustainable offensive system.

Like most teams, Orlando’s most effective halfcourt sets relied on execution:

Paolo’s on-ball double-team gravity in ISO, faceups, and backdowns; P&R Ball-Handling precision from Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, and Cole Anthony; Jalen Suggs’ sneaky success in Handoffs and reliable Strong Screen chemistry in The Wagner-Carter Connection; Spot Up closeout-attacking efficiency from Gary Harris, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole, and the Wagner Bros; Post-Up mismatches for everyone from Bol Bol and Mo Wagner to Fultz and Paolo; all of Orlando’s frontcourt being strong play-finishers as the P&R Roll-Man.

Visualizing Scoring Efficiency by Playtype PPP for Orlando Magic rotation players, data via Synergy Sports:

Banchero’s proven one-on-one prowess from any spot on the floor serves as a legitimate offensive hub on its own. Due to high volume and dipping efficiency throughout the year, Banchero scored at an average rate in most playtypes.

Zooming out, the most impressive signs are Paolo’s scoring versatility and all-around shot profile: good Post-Up efficiency as a Rookie, dominance in energy playtypes Putbacks, Transition, and Cuts, and solid efficiency hovering between 0.85 and 0.9 PPP when running both ends of the P&R, ISO, Handoffs, and Spot Up plays.

While individually each rate is fairly average, being able to score reliably in multiple playtypes, being good at everything with the handle and feel to create shots for one’s self and others, creates a sum of its parts effect greater than any one play, an all-around walking mismatch who can defeat different matchups in different ways.

Watch Paolo Banchero drills four threes on the way to 22 PTS in one half against the Celtics, hitting jump shots on and off the dribble out of all sorts of sets: Horns, Horns Flare, DHO, P&R, ISO, and even a fan-favorite Melo-inspired Post-Up Turnaround Baseline Fadeaway

Fourth Quarter Franz

Another year, another sound season for Fundamental Franz Wagner in the blue and white pinstripes.

Wagner methodically breaks down defenses, penetrating the paint in pick-and-roll for snake-dribbling euro-stepping running hooks.

Franz does his damage attacking from every direction on the court, scoring effectively in playtypes involving strong strong screens from Wendell Carter Jr., usually starting from the corner of halfcourt for an Angle P&R with smooth finishing on drives and clean shooting from deep.

Banchero and Wagner give the Magic an advantage held by few teams: two 6’10” wing playmakers who penetrate the paint at will. If Paolo and Franz make up the decidedly untradeable core going forward, then a drive-and-kick offensive hub between the two tall scoring creators exists.

Wagner masterfully runs halfcourt offense with the help of a screen in Handoffs and Pick-and-Rolls, while Banchero self-creates his own advantages facing up defenders in ISOs and Post-Ups.

Wagner shows incredible timing, feel for teammates, and understanding of the game. Franz cuts with purpose, flies on fast breaks, and stays moving off the ball to create easy scoring opportunities for himself.

Averaging near 19 PPG with a solid shooting line of 49-36-84, Wagner maintained good efficiency with high volume.

Zooming out to total offense, Wagner averaged over 1.0 point per possession (1.03 PPP) on 17.8 offensive possessions per game, second in total volume behind Paolo’s 21.6 possessions while rating above league average in efficiency. (0.98)

Fourth Quarter Franz was The Closer countless times this season, ranking 5th in total 4th QTR Points in January before eventually slipping to 9th by the end of the season.

Highlighting Chef Wagner cooking up his Fourth Quarter Franz recipe in the clutch:

Orlando’s two team-first forwards didn’t take long to gel.

Against Toronto, the Magic’s tall tough shot-making duo combine for 57 points on 20/27 from the field scoring 87% TS%.

Wagner’s defense is strong, with good rotations, helping the Magic slow down opposing stars.

Against the Clippers in December, Orlando found success blitzing pick-and-roll, forcing 8 turnovers with the hectic trapping coverage.

The Magic’s defense held their own shutting down Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to a combined 7/27 FG. When guarded by Paolo, Franz, and Bol, the Clippers star duo had trouble getting a clean shot off: in these matchups: Kawhi shot 2/11 and George shot 3/9.

Franz closed the Clippers out with two FLOATAs in the final minute.

Wagner would close out the Clippers in the final minute again later in the season with a stepback three over Robert Covington.

Franz’ one-legged Dirk fadeaway became a go-to move for Wagner last year. While Franz hasn’t gone to the move as often later in the year, Wagner knows he can pull the leg-kick fade any time he creates an advantage with a quick deceleration near the rim.

Poetically, Fourth Quarter Franz closes out Luka’s Mavs with the patented driving leg-kick Franz Dirk Fade

In Indiana, Wagner did his best Luka impression on the left wing, knocking down 3 Pull-Up Triples, 2 Stepbacks, over 1 switching Myles Turner.

In Portland, Franz dropped 15 PTS in the final quarter to beat the Blazers with his patented running hooks, gliding reverse finger-rolls, a catch-and-shoot triple, and even hitting Dame with a his own medicine, the pull-up trey.

the theme of the season: no lead is safe against Orlando.

The Mosley Magic Don’t Quit.

The Redemption of Markelle Fultz

A broken back.

A pit of despair.

An impossible leap.

And yet, The Dark Knight Rises.

“Why do we fall? So that we can learn to pick ourselves up.”

A proven full-time starting point guard for the foreseeable future.

A shoulder-faking midrange assassin who adds funky flare to every move.

A table-setting pick-and-roll maestro who gets to any spot below the arc he wants, traps defenders on his hip with hostage dribbles, and stays looking for pull-up jump shots, kickouts to open shooters, and no-look lobs to the dunker spot.

Markelle Fultz is officially back, dropping dimes like rhymes on decelerating drives.

MF Doom leaves his adversaries in dismay.

Overcoming injury, reforming his body, escaping the pit he was trapped in.

Whether or not he is The Batman remains unclear.

The Rise of Markelle Middy is a feel-good story any basketball fan can get behind.

3 Markelle Fultz quotes from the Knuckleheads Podcast via Player Tribune with Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles

Fultz on perseverance to fight through injuries:

“I just really learned how to focus on the day and win the day, and the next thing you know it got closer and closer and closer. Again, I think my love for the game really kept me going. Because I never really got a chance to showcase what I really wanted to do and I’d be dammed if I let an injury keep me from doing that…

I love the support and everything, but I strive off the doubt and the hate, the people saying I can’t do it. And I also understand, I’m thankful for where I’m at, it could be way worse , and I also could not be playing right now. So like, I take the good, and I’m thankful for it, and I give all the glory to god, but I also understand I have so much room that I can grow.

That’s what keeps me going, cuz I really feel like there is no ceiling. I can get stronger, I’m doing what I’m doing now, I can still shoot better, there’s so much stuff that I can continue to do, and that’s what keeps me going. Because I still feel like, my IQ for the game is at a very high level, but I still can continue to make my teammates better, be a better defender, everything.”

Fultz on Paolo growing up as a fan of his Washington Huskies:

“It’s crazy. I think it’s dope, a unique experience.

Well for me, this is my second time playing with a #1 pick (Ben Simmons and Paolo) so like, I also understand what he’s going through in a sense. So I feel like, me being through what I’ve been through, I think he understands that he has somebody real, who’s also been a #1 pick, so I feel like he knows that I’m somebody he can talk to.

A real hooper, and also has the Seattle ties, makes it even better. Again, a real hooper right there, he’s gonna be something real special. He’s already something special, but as the game continues to slow down for him, I’m super excited; I’m honored that I had a chance to be able to be a point guard that can help him right now.“

Fultz on Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s impact on the team:

“I think the biggest thing with Mosley… he care about us as people.

It’s not just about hoop for him; don’t get me wrong, he cares about winning, he hates losing, but he more wants us to be great young men, especially for a team like us, we got a lot of young guys.

That always makes you feel better as a person, coming in knowing that a guy isn’t just worried about winning or just talking basketball all the time, he’s asking how you’re doing, he’s worried about how your family, doing stuff like that.

So like, I think that’s a big part about it, but he also has a good combination of getting on us, but like understanding we have a young team so making it fun, like it’s not all drill-drill-drill, it’s like a good combination of come in and get your work in, lock in for right now, and then you can go enjoy, do what you gotta do, but we gotta take care of business…

Understanding we got a coach that rocks with us, we got to protect him, we stress that a lot to our teammates.”

Coach Mosley gives players freedom to play, the only requirement: play hard.

Orlando started the season 5-16 without Fultz. Markelle returned to the lineup, and hasn’t missed a game since.

In 58 games with Fultz at the helm, The Magic posted a .500 record, the 7th-best Defense, and the 6th-best FT Rate on Offense.

Defining an offensive system around what already exists could be Orlando’s clearest path to success. Endless “paint and spray” drive-and-kick ball-movement allows everyone to feel involved, feel out the game, and feel motivated to give their all.

A fast, fun, watchable offense built inside-out from paint penetration, the team moves to the pace of their point.

The Magic are one of four teams with three players driving to the rack at least ten times per game, joining the Clippers, Pelicans, and Celtics. Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game.

The Showtime Magic run the break off forced turnovers and endlessly attack the rack behind the three-headed monster of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz.

Visualizing Players averaging 10+ Drives per game while totaling over 80+ 3PT AST:

Highlighting Magic Markelle Moments this season

One of the biggest highlights of the season, Markelle Middy closing out the Celtics in Boston during the six-game win-streak that would turn out to be the longest of the season.

Markelle controls the pace, setting the table for teammates, looking for the best shot for his team.

Revenge Game Fultz dishes out seven dimes in a six minute span before half before Paolo, Suggs, and Mo Wagner spur a big comeback win in the second half in Philadelphia.

Markelle Middy shows off his two-way tenacity traveling to the West Coast.

Fultz times up FOUR quick steals in the first quarter against the Clippers, dropping 28 PTS, drawing 8 FT, and completing the highlight off Wendell’s big block on Westbrook with a coast-to-coast finger-roll

Fultz tallied a career-high SIX steals against the defending champs in Golden State while filling out the box score: 17-7-6-6

Fultz drills four midrange jumpers from the same shot zone in Phoenix, creates for teammates while pushing the pace, and keeps his hands active to force two turnovers on Devin Booker and Chris Paul.

While Fultz’s form is automatic in the midrange, his shot release on the three-point jumper looks like a different form. Fultz hypes up Magic fans late in the season with the cleanest-looking in-rhythm pull-up three of his Orlando Magic career in a monster third-quarter sequence in a Sunday afternoon game against Jaden Ivey’s Pistons.

Cole The Sparkplug

This roster is filled with flat-out hustlers, players coming off the bench ready to give their all every second on the floor.

Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield diving for loose balls, Jalen Suggs beating offenses to the point of attack, and Cole Anthony flying in to crash the boards or timing a Cut to the rim right as Fultz starts to bend the defense on a drive.

Cole Anthony may finally have found his ideal role as a third guard commanding second units and closing games with a hot hand, at least for now.

Ice Cole’s smooth floater, mean elbow middy pull-up, and flashy handles remain effective for creating shots Anthony is confident in making, especially against drop coverage. Even if those shots qualify as tough shots the defense generally wants the opponent to take, making those tough shots semi-consistently is worth exploring the hot hand theory any night.

Being able to operate high pick-and-roll offense between double drags and horns sets to create shots for everyone on the floor is a legitimate NBA skill, if not one of the most desired by front offices constructing an offense.

Cole has rapidly improved as a half-court decision maker, slowing down when he needs to create while never wasting effort on either end. Anthony stays a threat to pull-up at any moment or ignore the screen entirely and attack the rack by driving away from the action.

Once Fultz returned to the starting lineup, Cole was slotted in the sixth man role, proving to be an effective high-energy rotation player. Both point guards thrived in impact, with Anthony’s shooting through the roof in efficiency.

The regular rotation’s leading pull-up three-point threats by efficiency were Gary Harris (45% on 0.6 3PA) and Cole Anthony (39% on 1.0 3PA)

The regular rotation’s leading free throw shooters by efficiency were Gary Harris (90% FT% on 0.6 FTA) and Cole Anthony (89% FT% on 2.8 FTA)

While it’s not quite the Harden-CP3 Rockets playing a Hall of Fame point guard at all times, the depth of Fultz and Cole allows Orlando to always play a starting-caliber point guard capable of executing pick-and-rolls.

The Magic can rely on either point to control the pace and run half-court offense, making the game easier for all involved and balancing team roles by allowing play-finishing scorers to focus on putting the ball in the hoop.

Anthony showed promise in P&R action in the 2021-22 season, averaging the same scoring efficiency of 0.9 PPP as Rookie Franz, on higher volume.

Streaky scoring with reliable effort and good feel for running the offense is appreciated on second units and deserves a look at starting with night-to-night consistency. If efficiency stays level as volume increases, that rate should be tested to its limits.

Visualizing 2022-23 Orlando Magic players who can create shots for themselves and others, the floor-spacing scoring creators via Cerebro Sports data:

Good Ol’ Gary Harris

Sometimes lost in the fold in all the talks of the exciting young core is good ol’ Gary Harris, Orlando’s starting shooting guard for 72 games over the last two seasons.

Gary Harris has slid right into an ideal C&S play-finishing role, maximizing his efficiency as a three-point shooter and adding real two-way impact as a POA defender when on the floor.

While not quite the same scorer as his Denver peak, Harris has made huge jumps in efficiency across the board since his arrival in Orlando.

Gary posted 49% True Shooting percentage in his first twenty games after the trade to Orlando, rising all the way up to 57% TS% in Franz’ rookie season and 62% TS% in Paolo’s rookie season, with his USG% dropping from 20% to 16% to 12% in the process.

Harris 3PAr volume ballooned from 35% to 55% to 71% over that same time frame, with his 3P% efficiency climbing from 36% (3.3 3PA) to 38% (5 3PA) to 43% (4.5 3PA)

Nine Orlando Magic Players on the roster average over 2+ C&S 3PA when they play, all shooting at least 34%, led in 3P% by Gary Harris (43%) and Franz Wagner. (41%)

The outbreak of Franz, the arrival of Paolo, and the return of Fultz all contributed to fewer creation needs and more off-ball play-finishing looks for Harris, resulting in cleaner shot opportunities, higher efficiency, and more impact in a reduced on-ball role.

Providing a steady hand in point-of-attack defense, this savvy vet has proven over a long period of time to still be able to contribute to a starting lineup as a reliable two-way team-first 3&D role player doing the little things with little credit, making the right plays to help his team succeed.

Stealth Mode Suggs

A pick six a day keeps the defense at bay.

Lurking in the shadows before biting like a snake, Suggs surprises the opposition by beating the ball to the point the pass is supposed to arrive at.

A simple stagger screen gone wrong.

Jalen flies up from behind the action, snatches the ball before his man even sees it, going up for a layup on the other end before the defense knows what hit ‘em.

They underestimate his sneakiness.

Jalen Suggs is already one of the more versatile defensive guards in the league. Bringing lockdown effort and quick feet at point of attack, with strength on the block to lose no ground to bigs in the post, Suggs can already guard 1-4 at the highest level.

Stealth Mode Suggs, engaged.

A blur in transition, Jalen Suggs can take off like a rocket or launch the ball up the court quickly. The vision of a former quarterback has it’s perks on the open floor.

Jalen’s developed into a reliable scoring option in plays where he runs off screens.

Slowing down in the halfcourt, Suggs’ decision-making, rim-finishing, and quick-trigger jumper powers are growing stronger, averaging 1.1 PPP on Handoffs , 1.0 PPP Off Screens, and 0.9 PPP in P&R.

Never forget this four-threes first quarter in Brooklyn in 2021:

One of best early season moments: a game-winning spinning stepback three for Jalen Suggs in Chicago.

Jalen Suggs set a Career-High 26 PTS with clutch steals and pull-up jumper against the Splash Bros

Wendell The Rock

Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs held one of Orlando’s better net ratings, which adds up due to their execution off screens, reliable pindown handoff Chicago set, and the hard-earned chemistry of Wagner-Carter P&R Connections.

A hustling big who anchors both ends of the floor with high two-way feel for the game, sets strong well-timed screens, and hits C&S threes, Carter remains the rock of these lineups. Wendell brings all-around efficiency in energy plays, rolling and popping in pick-and-roll, spotting up from deep and posting up mismatches.

Wendell Carter led the team in overall impact this season according to Cerebro Sports (+7.0 C-RAM), slightly outpacing Franz and Paolo. (+6.7 C-RAM)

In 966 minutes with the starting frontcourt of Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner on the court together, the Orlando Magic have a +2.33 Net Rating.

Add Markelle Fultz to that mix of Wendell, Paolo, and Franz on the floor, and Orlando has a positive +1.76 Net Rating in 681 minutes.

Visualizing Orlando Magic players still on the roster with the most two-way impact as defenders and pure scorers in the 2022-23 season, via Cerebro Sports data:

New Bitazde Business

A late-season addition after being waived by Indiana, Goga Bitadze brought good energy, floor-spacing, and sound rim-rolls into post-up mismatches in his short stint in Orlando.

In 114 Minutes with Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Goga Bitadze on the floor, the Orlando Magic posted a +15.63 Net Rating. Usually joined by another starter, this unit impressed against second units once Goga entered the fold.

That 3-man chemistry will be handy going forward, with each player fighting for a starting spot, even if they’re comfortable filling their rotation role. A reliable bench unit could present itself with each player capable of filling in for a starter on the fly.

Visualizing 3-Man Lineup Combos for the Orlando Magic by Net Rating
(via NBA Stats; min. 100 MP)

The Boller Coaster

Few things excite Magic fans like a runaway Bol flying off the tracks.

When Bol Bol is on the loose, anything can happen.

Bol’s fast breaks were like psychedelic fever dreams, as the crowd collectively holds their breath to see if magic could happen one more time.

Sometimes Bol would glide coast-to-coast into a euro-step one-handed jam; other times, he’d fake a handoff and drive right into a post-up mismatch shoulder-faking turnaround baseline fadeaway.

To fans, The Good flashes highlights that resemble one of the greatest rim-protecting and tough shot-making prospects the basketball world has ever seen in Victor Wembanyama. To critics, The Bad reveals black hole level defensive worries on the perimeter, weakness guarding stronger bigs in the post, and a turnover-prone wildcard whose inconsistent decision-making may not be worth the excitement.

A free-roaming Bol is the best Bol, where a sturdy defensive frontcourt around him allows him to do what he does best as a help-side shot-blocking rim-protector with incredibly rare handle, touch, and skills for his height. Bol punishes mismatches in the post with tough shot-making, has a wet jumper from deep, and has the handles to create his own shot on a whim.

Concerns exist for any big being asked to switch on the perimeter, but the modern game demands versatility. Leading the league in 3PT BLKs when smaller guards dared to shoot over the switch, and using his length to effectively stop quicker wings in their tracks, Bol showed some improvement guarding on the wing this season.

Playing through mistakes hopefully creates lessons learned to develop decision-making, while being miscast in an overtasked role could dampen impact.

The Future

Role players like Mo Wagner, Chuma Okeke, and Caleb Houstan have shown reason for encouragement. Mo earns minutes with energy and closeout-attacking chemistry. Though he’s been squeezed out of the rotation due to the logjam of talent in the frontcourt, Chuma has flashed defensive wing versatility, shooting range, and connector ball-skills when available. Houstan has shown on more than one occasion he can be a legit C&S 3PT threat with active hands as a lengthy wing defender.

The defense is full of long, strong, smart, and mostly switchable defenders, who take pride in hustling, rotating, protecting.

Jonathan Isaac’s return lingers as a wide-ranging what-if. One of the most impactful, versatile defenders in the game when healthy, J.I. just can’t seem to stay on the court.

That won’t stop Magic fans from imagining how dynamic a Franz-Paolo-Isaac frontcourt could be in today’s spread NBA, or pondering a possible playoff matchup between Orlando’s young core of Suggs-Franz-Paolo-Isaac-Wendell-Fultz-Cole to Boston’s rotation of Smart-Brown-Tatum-RobWill-Horford-White-Brogdon, let alone daydreaming of what that might look like with another 1-2 lottery picks on the way.

Paolo even matches up well with fellow Duke star Jayson Tatum, showing he can contest Tatum’s jumper without fouling, contain him on drives, and make him work harder than he’d like for points, which is all one can be asked to do defending a superstar scorer like Tatum. Banchero holding his own on both ends with star big wings is huge for future playoff success.

With a 37% chance at a Top-4 pick, a 9% chance at winning the Wemby lottery outright, and over 91% odds of Chicago’s 11th-14th pick conveying, Orlando could very easily end up with another top talent in the draft, if not two.

Imagine this roster adding another explosive guard like Scoot Henderson, Amen or Ausar Thompson into the mix, or a floor-stretching tough shot-maker on the wing like Jett Howard or Gradey Dick.

Countless reasons exist for Magic fans to have hope.

The product on the floor is fun to watch every night.

The drives and kicks are strong; the pace of play is fast; the style of play is furious.

The young talent coming together, meshing, molding into one cohesive unit.

In the present, everyone in the gym is entertained.

For the future, fans are overloaded with optimism.

Win or lose, Mosley Magic teams don’t quit.

Ring the bell.

Data via PBP Stats, Cerebro Sports, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Statmuse

Words and Visualizations from @ BeyondTheRK on Twitter, YouTube, Substack

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