The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season appeared first on Swish Theory.

“A boat’s a boat, but a mystery box could be anything; it could even be a boat!” – Peter Griffin

Potential lies in the eye of the beholder.

To some, potential is the highest hypothetical ceiling of a prospect if all the flaws of that prospect magically disappear overnight; to others, the most realistic development paths rely on legitimate foundations of proven talent.

Realistic potential relies on skill flashes in the pan slow-cooking in the crockpot of one’s career, whereas hypothetical potential is often raised up by empty hype based on nothing more than blind hope.

What are some signs of realistic potential, where one could project aspects of a player’s game blooming from specific budding skills?

What Defines a Good Basketball Player?

When a prospect consistently shows soft shooting touch from multiple areas of the floor, such as finishing at the rim in a variety of fashions, cashing in floaters in the midrange, and knocking down free throws at an above average rate, one could realistically project that player to continue developing as a shooter and scorer, perhaps even a tough shot-maker.

When a prospect shows the ability to dribble a basketball without turning it over, that ball control unlocks all sorts of scoring opportunities for the player and the team. Working on handles with dribble drills can unlock different types of shot creation for any player to drive to the rack, maintain control on moves, and look to create advantages that lead to easier scoring opportunities for themselves or teammates.

Making the extra pass to the open man around the arc or on a drive-and-kick could signal a future connector. Attacking, bending defenses before kicking out, threatening to score to draw away eyes from the defense, could reveal a player’s readiness for a larger creator role.

Developing some of the toughest ball-skills involves deliberate practice with hours of repeating the same shot or drill at a local park or in an empty gym. Showing work ethic, willingness to learn, and coachability are traits any team values; combining that approach with the talent it takes to develop these traits leads one to believe other ball skills can be improved in a similar routine, with the same effort, focus, and mechanical mindset that got the prospect where they are today.

Prospects who develop dribbling, passing, and shooting become well-rounded offensive players. Players who combine good handles, vision, and touch with natural feel for the game can combine the sum of their parts to become good basketball players on one end of the floor and legitimate offensive stars at the highest level.

These all-around prospects become self-made scoring creators, creating good looks for themselves and teammates on a consistent basis, whose next challenge is to balance making unselfish team decisions with a selfish scoring mindset.

Good basketball players don’t hurt their team. Not hurting your team means competing hard on both ends of the floor, being a plus-defender and sound decision-maker, or at least bringing so much positive impact with otherworldly talent on one side that it makes up for minimal impact on the other side.

Even then, if a slight 6’2” sharpshooter named Steph can become an average defender for his position, no one really has an excuse.

Effort shouldn’t have to be coached, especially at the highest level.

The Scarcity of Versatility

Versatility overflows in positivity; one can never have enough versatility.

On offense, this word means threatening to score multiple ways simultaneously. Having lineups of players who can fulfill different traditional roles all at once, whether that be initiating a play on the ball or finishing a play off of it.

Scoring versatility relates to a player’s shot profile, the ability to score in different methods in different areas of the floor.

Role versatility involves a players being able to switch between roles, ranging anywhere between running some point one play, looking to score first off the dribble the next play, attacking a closeout after that, popping out for three later on, and/or rolling to the rack for a thunderous throwdown inbetween.

Matchup versatility revolves around teams with multiple versatile players being able to play at different paces and styles, affording the coach a multitude of lineup options to play around with in search of finding competitive advantages without shooting themselves in the foot while doing so.

Defensive versatility can be simplified to guarding multiple positions. Being able to switch no matter the matchup; protecting the paint and guarding the perimeter. Having the lateral quickness, body control, and spatial awareness to move side-to-side with ease, rotate from the corner to the nail to tag the roller, and shift schemes seamlessly between hedging, switching, trapping, dropping in pick-and-roll defense to keep offense on their toes.

The epitome of a versatile defender in the modern game is someone long and quick enough to guard a team’s perimeter creator at point-of-attack, agile enough to switch onto the team’s big wing, tall and instinctual enough to time up blocks at the rim while rotating in help, and strong enough to hold their own on the block without giving ground.

A rim-protecting defensive anchor who can switch out and pick up just about anybody at any time, such as Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

One doesn’t need to hone every skill mentioned to be versatile, but the more roles a player can fill (or at least threaten the defense that they might fill) on either side of the floor, the more versatile that player is.

The more well-rounded team-first two-way good basketball players that a team rosters, the more versatile that roster becomes.

The Path to Stardom

Memphis Grizzlies star Jaren Jackson Jr. combines rare natural traits with awareness, skill, and instincts to create an ever-active ball-swarming shot-swatting one-man wrecking-crew on one end of the court and a floor-stretching dribble-driving mismatch-hunting walking bucket on the other.

At Michigan State, Jaren flashed a rim-protecting play-finishing skillset coveted in modern pick-and-pop bigs by every team

In the NBA, JJJ now defines the unicorn label as well as any player alive on the planet.

Jackson will rotate three times and block two shots in one possession, revealing his play-by-play paint-protecting impact while always hovering in help-defense.

Now a franchise cornerstone who can score as the lead option, attack closeouts as the second, spread the floor as a sniper, punish mismatches on the post, and beat bigs off the dribble, Jackson showed early on-ball scoring potential in flashes, when deciding to attack and when given the opportunity.

Trey J’s jumper has a unique shooting form for someone his size. A rapid-fire catch-and-pull-up resembles a low-to-high gather before releasing on the way up that guards like Steph Curry makes look so impossible to guard off the dribble.

At Michigan State, Jaren shared the spotlight with Miles Bridges, Coach Izzo’s #1 scoring option. Bridges specialized in ISOs from the wing, while Jaren spaced the floor for quick-trigger jumpers, crashed the boards, and offered a secondary post-up option. Fans argued Jackson wasn’t being aggressive enough; some could say his modern-big skills were underutilized.

Jackson brought ambidextrous finishing, strong footwork, and soft touch near the rim, while displaying great understanding of the game on both ends of the floor.

JJJ quickly racked up a lot of blocks and threes; more than his peers, and more than just about anyone who ever played collegiate basketball:

Draft Class Superlatives

Voted most likely to be a shot-swatting 3pt sniper, Jaren Jackson Jr. averaged more STL+BLK (5.9) than every top big in his 2018 NBA Draft class (Bamba, Wendell, Ayton, and Bagley), scoring as efficiently across the board (65% TS%) and shooting as well or better than everyone from beyond the arc and the free throw line.

JJJ joined Karl Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis as the only freshman since 2011 with 5+ OBPM and 10+ DBPM, via @advancedstats23. (twitter)

Jackson and Bamba finished Top-2 in BLK%, DBPM, BPM, while helping their teams rank Top-15 in defensive rating.

Jaren: 14.2 BLK% | 5.9 Stocks .396 3pt%, .647 TS%, .797 FT% (.414 3PAr)
Bamba: 13.0 BLK% | 5.2 Stocks .275 3pt%, .593 TS%, .681 FT% (.189 3PAr)
Ayton: 6.1 BLK% | 2.6 Stocks .343 3pt%, .650 TS%, .733 FT% (.078 3PAr)
Bagley: 1.5 BLK% | 1.9 Stocks .386 3pt%, .642 TS%, .622 FT% (.132 3PAr)

Taking a higher percentage of his shots from beyond the arc (.414 3PAr) than all three other bigs combined, Jaren made a higher percentage of those threes than anyone, nearly reaching the elite 40% threshold (39.6% 3P%), while also knocking down the highest FT% (79.7%) of any top big prospect in his class.

All are positive indicators if not bright flashing lights signaling a super-skilled big with the touch, work ethic, and jump shot to bring real shooting skills to the next level and maybe even develop three-level scoring prowess in the long-term, without even mentioning his otherwordly rim-protecting and turnover-forcing numbers.

A historically impressive shot-blocker was also the best 3PT and FT shooter in his class, with clean postup footwork, soft finishing touch, developable ball-skills in every area, and effective awareness to know where to be to do the little things asked of a big.

While feel for the game can’t be measured, it felt like Jaren’s feel was off the charts.

In terms of overall impact, Jaren Jackson Jr. ranked 7th in Player Impact Plus Minus (+7.54) among all college players measured in the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, rating right between Mikal Bridges and Mo Bamba. Notably, Zion Williamson and Brandon Clarke collegiate impact jumped off the page, via Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM metric.

Cerebro Sports tracks data from early on in the prospect development cycle to quantify each player’s ever-changing role and situation throughout their basketball journey, from the beginning. Rob James (@RobJamesHoops) of Cerebro has been impressed by Jaren Jackson Jr.’s high two-way floor and instinctual feel for the game for a long time:

“I was there from 2014-2018; in EYBL/HS, I either had 50-60 game minimums.

Jaren shot 39% from 3 on about 140 attempts. The Stretch 5 capability was always there. He was going to hit 3s and protect the rim and score effectively without needing a ton of usage.

Son of a pro is a cheat code, a sweetheart kid of a glue guy dad so getting his was never his thing. Program he comes from, Indy Heat, is basically a “feel for the game” assembly line. So knowing how to play in that body (SUPER young, wouldn’t really hit physical stride til 22-23) he was always gonna be in the league as a BASELINE Al Horford type competing in the playoffs for 10+ years, in my opinion.

Main issue was fouling. takes a long time for bigs to pick up the cerebral aspect of quarterbacking a defense, plus he was still growing into his body and young, hence the fouls were such a big problem early. Upside gets tricky. however the floor was starting for playoff teams for a LONG time.”

– Rob James, Cerebro Sports

Some things can’t be taught. Basketball players who are long (wingspan), tall (height), with big hands tend to be more disruptive defenders, in swish theory.

Measureables that provide Jaren a more realistic pathway to maintaining defensive impact going from college to pro level:

(Draft Class Ranks)
Wingspan: 7’5.25 (3rd)
Hand length: 10in (T-1st)
Hand width: 10in (T-10th)
Height w/o shoes: 6’9.75 (7th)
Standing reach: 9’2 (6th)

Triple J Today

Today, Jaren is a star defender, shooter, and scorer.

How did he find his ultimate development path, resembling the closest player in the league to a modern day Kevin Garnett?

Mastering his defensive instincts to find better balance between forcing turnovers and not fouling. Finetuning that feathery touch into a reliable jump shot from downtown. Combining that deep range with ball control to develop into an on-ball scoring threat with counter-attack moves who can put the ball on the floor and drive to the cup.

Jaren’s profound scoring versatility is most evident in his Synergy shot profile, bringing average to elite efficiency in every playtype. Few numbers highlight Jackson’s versatile shot profile and offensive role malleability as Points Per Possession.

Jaren Jackson Jr. averages 1.0+ PPP in SEVEN playtypes via Synergy, including ISO, Post-Up, Handoffs, Cuts, Putbacks, Transition, and operating both ends of the pick-and-roll.

Jaren ranks 42nd in ISO efficiency, rating in the 82nd percentile. His most efficient playtypes score 1.1 PPP in ISO situations, 1.04 on Handoffs, 1.25 PPP as the P&R Roll Man, and 1.0 as the P&R Ball Handler.

Jackson ranks 39th in the NBA in Dunks with 67; 27 times rolling to the hoop in P&R, Jaren scored 1.8 PPP on 16/19 FG!

Jaren just wrapped up the longest streak of 25pt games in his career with five straight, posting superstar numbers in the process with 29.8 PPG – 7 REB – 2.4 BLK on 68% TS% while shooting 35% 3P% on 5 3PA.

When Ja misses games, the entire Grizzlies’ rotation must fill a bigger role than usual, taking on more of a scoring load to fill the void. Some teams may be more prepared to do this than others, due to rosters featuring malleable talents that work cohesively in different ways. Ready or not, time for other options like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane to step up.

In the 9 games with Ja out, Jaren’s taken on a primary scoring option role. Winning six of those nine games, Jackson is averaging 23 PPG – 6 REB – 2 BLK while shooting 51-36-75 and winning six of nine games.

In Morant’s return off the bench, Jackson still couldn’t be contained, exploding for 37 PTS – 10 REB – 2 BLK – 1 STL on 14/20 FG and 8/11 FT in Houston.

JJJ’s strongest performance in the Ja-less run arguably came in the beefiest matchup: Memphis’ brewing smack-talk storm with the Golden State Warriors for the title of who really runs the West.

Jaren showed what he’s capable of when attacking all game while somehow having the frenetic energy to stay protecting the paint from every angle, leading all scorers in the Memphis-Golden State matchup with a huge 31 PTS on 64% TS% and 4 BLK.

Jaren takes advantage of his transcendent defensive instincts and never-ending effort to regularly time up blocks in help defense.

In a 5-second span guarding Pick-and-Roll in just the first possession below, help-defender Jaren Jackson rotates to the protect the rim, blows up the roller’s path, blocks the next pass recipient’s shot on the way up, then deflects another pass.

Try again.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has developed his touch into efficient range from downtown. What makes Trey J’s shot release look different for a big is how most tall shooters use the height of their jump at the top of their release to make their shot even harder to guard, like Rashard Lewis or the nearly unblockable Kevin Durant.

Jackson’s three-point threat creates easy closeout-attacking leverage to pumpfake even the smartest defenders off their feet. Jaren can replicate his upward shot release and soft touch from anywhere on the floor, such as the float game, where he makes drifting a one-handed flick shot over the defender look routine.

Here, JJJ sends Draymond flying by on the pick-and-pop pump, accelerates into the open space on the floor, processes his options, and swishes in the high-arcing teardrop FLOATA after realizing no contest was coming to stop him.

Jackson has filled out his frame to hold his own on the block at the pro level. Jaren now has the physicality to create position and soft touch to finish with finesse around the basket, with the body control to speed past bigger defenders.

Jackson’s rounded out his post-up game with footwork, finesse, and counter moves. Ranking 37th in Post Up efficiency, he’s tied with Aaron Gordon and percentage points ahead of Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, and Anthony Davis.

As of February 2022, Jaren had taken the 5th-most hook shots in the league, averaging a respectable point per possession when doing so.

Jackson can score over, through, and around nearly any defender standing in front of him. He can speed past bigs, overpower smalls, or rise and fire any time he wants.

A fringe seven-foot positionless rim-protecting do-it-all defender who can shoot on or off the ball or put the ball on the floor, glide to the rack, and finish with either hand at a moment’s notice?

What more could one want out of a basketball player who competes hard every possession on both ends?

What can defenses do when he’s in the zone? Send a double, hope someone else beats them. Even if he’s not known for creating looks for others, Jaren’s instincts, vision, and feel for the game build up a sound decision-making process; Jackson has the vision to notice the double-teams coming and the willingness to kick to the open man.

Versatility allows Jaren to shift roles seamlessly.

Jackson’s ability to overpower shorter players on the block and accelerate past bigs on the perimeter creates a walking mismatch.

With soft touch finishing around the rim, sound ball and body control, and a clean stroke from deep, an unguardable scorer on and off the ball is born; a two-way force who protects the paint every possession and can morph from primary scoring option into secondary floor-spacer instantaneously.

Was Jaren not aggressive enough as a scorer at Michigan State? Should he be praised for being more forthright now in the pros? Were these skills always around and sleeping dormant, or did Jaren finally receive an opportunity to produce as a primary scoring option on a consistent basis, something that’s never truly been asked from him at the NCAA/NBA level?

Maybe multiple things can be true. Jaren has certainly flashed his skillset in bursts.

Breaking out the handles and body control when given a chance, here’s JJJ in ISO dropping a double cross hesi drive one-handed jam back at MSU, because he can.

Jaren rapidly flashed his NBA-level D&3 credentials.

Recording a 7 BLK + 4 3PM outburst in his first 20 games as a rookie? because he can.

Knocking down a triple and getting back on defense to swat two shots in a row? priceless.

10 Graphs Visualizing Jaren Jackson Jr.’s NBA Development Path from Rookie to Franchise Cornerstone

Jaren Jackson Jr. was 1 of 8 Rookies to score 0.95 PPP with 100+ possessions in 1+ playtype, joining Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Mikal Bridges, Trae Young, Deandre Ayton, Miles Bridges, and Collin Sexton.

JJJ was scoring efficiently in Spot Ups, P&R Roll Man, and Transition situations as soon as he stepped on the hardwood.

#1. A Versatile Play Finisher

On Dec 3, 2021, Jaren Jackson Jr. broke the True Shooting stat with his shooting efficiency at 109.1% TS%.

Playing only twenty minutes, JJJ posted a +42 and a 109.1% TS% (!) with 27 PTS – 2 STL – 2 BLK shooting 6/7 3P.

By the 2020-21 season, Jaren was already one of the best jump shooters in the NBA, ranking 17th in efficiency via Synergy among shooters with 300+ shots taken.

#2. The Jumper is Legit

Even though Jackson’s surprisingly struggled in pick-and-pops this 2023 season, only hitting four of fourteen from deep in the playoffs, Jaren’s unfettered willingness to launch from deep continues to keep defenses up at night on the regular.

In 2023, Jaren’s slipped the pick as the roll-man 38 times, hitting 5/7 3P and scoring 1.3 PPP.

While efficiency is always a main goal; volume and confidence can go along way to stretch the floor, keep defenses away from the rim, and open the paint for others.

In 2021-22, Jaren was the 2nd-most efficient pick-and-pop option in the NBA as of January. Jackson served as the floor-streching rim-protecting star for an up-and-coming Grizzlies team that burst onto the playoff scene and isn’t leaving any time soon.

#3. Spacing the Floor for Rim Pressure

When visualizing the Hustle landscape of the league’s most active defenders last season (2021-22), Jaren popped out in multiple categories, ranking 7th in dFG% (41.8%)

Guards tend to rack up more deflections while bigs tend to contest more shots, which adds up given each respective position’s traditional roles of digging at balls on the perimeter and protecting the paint.

NBA Hustle Leaders in 2021-23 with < 43% dFG%, 80+ Deflections, 9+ dFGA/game, 40+gp:

1) Robert Williams 40.3%
2) Matisse Thybulle 40.5%
3) Jaden McDaniels 40.7%
4) Bruce Brown 41.2%
5) Draymond Green 41.6%
6) Caleb Martin 41.7%
7) Jaren Jackson Jr. 41.8%
8) LeBron James 42.2%
9) Deni Avdija 42.3%
10) Desmond Bane 42.4%
11) Rudy Gobert 42.5%
12) Bam Adebayo 42.7%

#4-5. Wingspan Everywhere

2022-23: The Stratosphere of Consistency

1/5/23: Jaren Jackson Jr. drops ORL 31 PTS 10 REB on 91% TS% while holding Paolo Banchero to 2/6 FG, forcing his Paolo’s turnover, with Jaren’s only foul coming on a chasedown block attempt (slammed home by Banchero for the AND1).

As of 1/6/23, Jaren Jackson Jr. Ranks 1st in Blocks/gm and BLK% along with 1st in Defensive EPM; 3rd in Defensive BPM; and 3rd in Cerebro’s Defense Statistical Impact. (DSI)

#6. First Team All-Defense

As of 1/18/23, Opponents were shooting 10% worse in the restricted area with Jaren Jackson Jr. ON the floor vs. OFF, via this phenomenal shot deterrence visual created by @Daniel_Bratulic.

A constant criticism that’s pained Jackson’s game like an Achilles heel may now double as Jackson’s most valuable improvement this season: foul trouble

Jaren’s starting to slow down, react more purposefully, and time his jumps to not rack up as many silly fouls. Developing defensive instincts into better decision-making.

As of 1/20, Jaren ranked among the league’s best in racking up blocks and steals without fouling and making hustle plays without giving up that relentless swarming defensive activity that got him to where he is today.

#7. The Fouls, with Proper Context

However, this area remains a concern for Jaren when teams attack the rim in pursuit of putting him in foul trouble, especially in the playoffs: what happens if the Grizzlies’ most impactful two-way player is unavailable for the team’s biggest moments?

Jackson will have to lean on the foundational traits that got him there: decision-making, instincts, timing.

Perennially facing foul trouble, Jaren’s only actually fouled out of four games in 2022-23. Why does Jackson only average 28 MPG?

Coming off an injury to start the year, Jaren began the season on a minutes restriction at 26.2 MPG in his first 28 games. Over his last 30 games, Jaren’s upped his playing time to 30 MPG.

This season, Jaren is racking up one more combined block+steal than any player in the league who also attempts a minimum of one C&S triple per game, with only 36 players launching more catch-and-shoot three-pointers every night.

JJJ’s DPOY-level two-way impact far outweighs his jumpy foul trouble tendencies.
Jackson’s averaging the best rate of STL+BLK divided by Fouls in his career. (1.16)

#8-9. The Epitome of 3&D?

Add in Deflections to the mix, and Jaren ranks near the top hustlers in the league this season, rating among Toronto’ perimeter players Fred VanVleet and O.G. Anunoby.

How many bigs plays like guards on the wing, breaking up passing lanes for deflections and stretching the floor from deep, all while still doing the little things that teams want bigs to do like putting a lid on the rim and rolling hard to the rack?

Block percentage (BLK%) is the percentage of a team’s blocks that a single player racks up while on the court. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s 9.8 BLK% is the 4th-highest ever block percentage recorded by basketball reference, just behind the top three seasons ever recorded by Manute Bol.

Memphis as a team ranks Top-15 in every defensive four factor:
2nd in Defensive Rating, 2nd in DEF eFG%, 6th in TOV% (forcing turnovers), and 12th in FT Rate (not fouling).

Every 3-man combo you can think of in Memphis’ core between Jaren, Ja, Bane, and Clarke jumps off the page in Net Rating, varying between 60-200 MIN via PBP Stats.

Jaren Jackson Jr.’s individual NBA Ranks (as of 3/24/23)

defense
1st in BLK% (5.3%), 100th percentile via Cleaning The Glass / 9.8% via BBall Ref
1st in BLK/gm (3), BLK/poss (0.5), BLK/MIN (0.11)
1st in 2PA BLK% (9.8)
3rd in Total BLK (167)
4th in Defensive EPM via Dunks and Threes
4th in %BLK via NBA Stats
7th in Defensive BPM via BBall Ref and DSI via Cerebro Sports
7th in Contested Shots (10.8, Tied with Anthony Davis, Isaiah Stewart, Myles Turner)
60th in Deflections (2.0, Tied with wings Mikal Bridges, Devin Vassell, Franz Wagner

3pt shooting
48th in C&S 3PA on 34.2% C&S 3P%
83rd in 3PA volume (4.5, Tied with Nikola Vucevic, Joe Harris, McBuckets, Tobias)
95th in 3PM/gm (1.5, Tied with guards Ivey, CP3, T-Ross)
124th in 3P% (34%, in line with Doncic, Tatum, Brown, Fox,Young)
150th in 3PAr (.35, Tied with Kristaps Porzingis and Jaden Ivey)

Among Vegas-favorite candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren ranks highest in Defensive EPM along with leading the league in in BLK+STL and BLK%.

Only Nic Claxton ranks slightly higher in Cerebro’s Defensive Statistical Impact metric, while Joel Embiid, Draymond Green, and Giannis Antetokoumnpo rate higher in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box Plus Minus stat.

When counting fouls as negative plays against the turnover-forcing positive possessions, Nic Claxton, Brook Lopez, and Kawhi Leonard rank higher than Jaren, though Jackson has progressed t the 11th-best BLK+STL/Foul rate in the league.

#10. The Soon-to-Be DPOY?

The son of a former NBA player, Jaren Jackson grew up in the world of basketball.

Jaren’s understanding of the game, reactionary awareness, profound footwork, soft touch and special jump shot at his height and length provided a sizable foundation to develop skills on both ends of the floor.

Hard work off the court, endless effort on the hardwood, and a lifetime of learning the intricacies of the game have allowed Triple J to grow from a prospect with realistic potential to proven superstar player.

Finding a star as talented and coachable as JJJ is about as rare a sight as seeing a horse with a horn on its head dribbling a basketball.

A strong defensive anchor, an offensive engine, a franchise cornerstone.

An elite and versatile defender, shooter, and scorer.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the true unicorn.

Data via Dunks and Threes, Synergy Sports, Cerebro Sports, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, PBP Stats. Follow @BeyondTheRK on Twitter, Substack, YouTube for NBA film scouting and basketball data science.

The post The Actualization of Jaren Jackson Jr., Versatile Franchise Cornerstone appeared first on Swish Theory.

There are quite a few trailing close behind. While also a result of no single runaway team (SRS is calculated relative to all other teams), the five closest trailing the Celtics – Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Pelicans, Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers – are all within 2 points in SRS of Boston. There was a more significant difference, for instance, between last year’s Celtics who lead the league and the 2021-22 Miami Heat, or the 2020-21 regular season leading Utah Jazz compared to sixth place Denver Nuggets.

The top is as clustered as it’s been, though we have more than half of the season left for one of these teams to make their mark. The closest recent historical precedent was 2010-11, when the Dallas Mavericks overcame having the seventh worst championship odds to take the title led by Dirk Nowitzki.

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The NBA draft may be over, but for teams across the league, the development process has just begun. Contrary to what most think, success in the draft is more than just making the ‘right’ pick. What happens after draft night is where the real magic starts to begin. Through this article, I hope to illuminate what this looks like for both the best and worst drafting teams in the league, as we take an up-close and personal look at the cultures, habits, and infrastructures that makes each NBA organization unique.

The Price of a Pick

To understand how teams have performed in the draft relative to expectations, we have to first understand the value of a pick in each draft range. Luckily Seth Partnow from The Athletic has seemingly already done that for us.

Now that we have a rough idea of how players in a certain pick range turn out, let’s see which teams have been able to consistently outperform these pick expectations. To keep my sample size large enough while also accounting for more modern team infrastructures, I’ll be looking at data from 2010-2018.

Right away, we can see some rather obvious underperforming and overperforming teams. Across the board, it’s very clear that average draft position has been nowhere near a guarantee for success, but we’ll get into more of that later.

In an attempt to recreate Partnow’s plot in a more team-specific way, I hand-tracked draft pick outcomes for each team. While teams like the Kings are easy to spot as obvious underperformers, it’s not as simple to see how others have fared. To combat this, I reordered teams based on a very rough ‘relative draft value’ metric shown above. I set up a point system for teams where they were rewarded set points for each outcome they drafted, where they got the most points for drafting a franchise/core player and less for each outcome below that, all the way down to the bust outcome where points were actually subtracted. These values were chosen based on a similar method to the one used in my draft model, which you can read more about here. While it is a pretty rough metric, it gets the job done.

As a caveat, there are some limitations to this exercise due to its imperfect nature. I tried to match Partnow’s process to assign outcomes as much as possible (outlined in more detail here), but it’s impossible to do so completely. As addressed earlier, my sample size is also smaller than his to try to account for modern/current front offices, but some teams didn’t draft enough in the time period to confidently say whether they did well or not. Another important note is that some of these players were developed by teams other than the teams that drafted him (this doesn’t apply to draft day trades, these are accounted for accordingly), but the original drafters received credit. While this might impact results, I don’t think it was severe enough to make a truly big difference. Finally, I didn’t include undrafted players in this exercise, so teams that traditionally do well with undrafted players didn’t shine as brightly (looking at you Miami, and, to a lesser extent, Dallas). With that out of the way, let’s dive into the results.

Is It Good Drafting or Good Developing?

This question is tricky. Are teams that are finding themselves successful in the draft better at identifying talent or developing it? In all likelihood, it’s a mixture of both and varies from team to team, but my aim is to examine different teams’ infrastructures to try and answer this. As a reminder, this is more a review of a team’s past rather than an indictment of their future. Some of the poorly performing teams have recently made the necessary steps to improve their draft strategy and player development infrastructure.

The Best of the Best

Denver Nuggets

Total Picks: 23

Average Draft Pick: 35

Pick Outcomes: 47.83% Bust, 8.7% Just a Guy, 21.74% High Rotation, 13.04% Top Starter, 4.35% Borderline All-Star, 4.35% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 6

Total Data Analysts: 1

G-League Team Affiliation: 2021-Present

Though the Nuggets’ draft success extends past drafting one of only two second-round MVPs in league history, let’s start there for a moment. Nikola Jokic was the least known prospect within a very strong 2014 Nuggets draft class that included both Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris. Jokic represents one of the earliest cases I’ve seen of what draft twitter likes to call ‘pre-drafting’. As PD Web explains in the linked article, the practice is essentially selecting a player a year before they become a more ‘mainstream’ prospect. Interestingly enough, according to an article from The Athletic, this practice is a pillar in the foundation of the Nuggets’ draft strategy, with a clear emphasis to draft prospects before their true breakout season.

However, the Nuggets’ draft work doesn’t stop after they identify talent. For former head of basketball operations, Tim Connelly, and the rest of the front office, player development is where they can really gain an edge. Player development for the Nuggets starts and ends with assistant coach John Beckett. Beckett is a former video coordinator with the Hawks who was initially hired by Denver as a player development coach in 2015 before quickly working his way to his current position on Michael Malone’s staff. For Beckett and the Nuggets, game-like situations are the bread and butter of their player-curated development workouts. This means getting a lot of threes up for Jamal Murray and a lot of off-ball work for Michael Porter Jr. Approaching player development through this lens has paid dividends for the Nuggets, helping improve Malik Beasley and Monte Morris in addition to those already mentioned.

With the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. this season, we’ll finally get to see the complete vision of a homegrown Nuggets team shaped by the player development habits and proactive draft strategy cultivated throughout the past decade.

Los Angeles Lakers

Total Picks: 21

Average Draft Pick: 37

Pick Outcomes: 47.62% Bust, 9.52% Just a Guy, 23.81% High Rotation, 14.29% Top Starter, 4.76% Borderline All-Star, 0% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 7

Total Data Analysts: 4

G-League Team Affiliation: 2006-Present

Somewhat to my surprise, the Lakers have done an excellent job of finding value in the draft relative to their average position. Despite picking 37th on average in the draft, the second lowest average selection, the Lakers have managed to find a large number of guys that have stuck in the league. So, how have they done it? The Lakers simply optimized G-League player development quicker than other teams. They were the first NBA franchise to own a G-League (then known as the D-League) team, gaining ownership with their current affiliate, the South Bay Lakers, way back in 2006. Since then, the Lakers have used South Bay as a place for rookies and young players without a path to minutes on the NBA roster to gain valuable game time, experience, and development. As of 2021, a staggering 36 former South Bay Lakers players had been called up to the NBA, with two trips to the G-League finals (2012, 2016) under their belt. Notable South Bay Lakers alumni in the time frame (2010-2018) include Alex Caruso, Ivica Zubac, Mo Wagner, Gary Payton II, Josh Hart, and Thomas Bryant.

Philadelphia 76ers

Total Picks: 28

Average Draft Pick: 26

Pick Outcomes: 46.43% Bust, 14.29% Just a Guy, 25.00% High Rotation, 3.57% Top Starter, 7.14% Borderline All-Star, 3.57% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 8

Total Data Analysts: 5

G-League Team Affiliation: 2013-Present

The Philadelphia 76ers fielded what is probably the most infamous bad team in modern sports history in the early stages of our selected timeframe. The Process Sixers weren’t just known for being bad, they were known for embracing it. Before delving deeper, my first thoughts on the 76ers draft success were “Oh, they just had more opportunities to give their rookies as a historically bad team”. After a little bit of research, I found this could not be the only explanation.

The 76ers do, in fact, play their rookies a lot, to the tune of fourth most in the league over the chosen time period. However, many other franchises that prioritized rookie playing time have not had close to the same level of success. Similarly, there were teams that played their rookies a lot less, on average, yet have had great success in drafting and development. Upon closer inspection, it seems that in addition to giving their rookies ample opportunities, the 76ers are just better at talent identification than most teams. Sometimes, it really is that simple. A lot of their success in the draft has simply come from hitting on almost every single lottery pick they’ve had. From Joel Embiid to Ben Simmons to even Dario Saric, the Sixers have generally nailed that portion of the draft. This outperformance even includes two instances of unusually bad injury luck from the selections of Markelle Fultz and Zhaire Smith. The Sixers are no slouch when it comes to drafting in the second round either, drafting both Jerami Grant and Richaun Holmes before they blossomed on other teams. Not every team has a winning formula when it comes to developing young players, but luckily for the Sixers, they’ve already won half the battle with their excellent eye for talent.

Utah Jazz

Total Picks: 18

Average Draft Pick: 32

Pick Outcomes: 44.44% Bust, 22.22% Just a Guy, 22.22% High Rotation, 0% Top Starter, 0% Borderline All-Star, 11.11% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 20

Total Data Analysts: 1

G-League Team Affiliation: 2014-Present

The most apparent thing about the Jazz is they realize the importance of the draft. They have what can only be described as an army of professional scouts, 20 to be exact, more than any other team I’ve looked at for this exercise. The immediate conclusion to draw here is that the Jazz are just great at talent identification, similarly to the Sixers, but in this case, there’s more to it than what meets the eye.

There is one man arguably more responsible for the Jazz’s draft success than any other and that man is Johnnie Bryant. Similarly to John Beckett with Denver, Bryant was hired as a player development coach back in 2012 by the Jazz before being promoted to assistant coach in 2014. Prior to his hiring, he had gained a reputation for his independent skill development program (Bryant Sports Academy) and worked with multiple NBA players, including All-Stars Damian Lillard and Paul Millsap. His first success story with the Jazz came by working with former Jazz player Gordon Hayward on his way to becoming an All-Star. Since then he’s helped develop many Jazz players, most notably Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, the latter of which he helped scale to a primary option after being drafted with the expectation of having a smaller role.

For Mitchell, Bryant reportedly conducted “individual workouts, pregame shooting routines and film sessions — scouting opponents, reviewing games, watching other stars to try to learn their tricks.” Bryant’s help with playmaking and capitalizing on shooting gravity quickly made Mitchell one of the more dynamic guards in the league. According to Donovan, Bryant obsessively watches film, combing over hours of footage and taking notes to find ways his players can improve.

Off the court, Bryant develops a close relationship with his players, giving them a member of the staff they know they can trust. This aspect of the game is often overlooked but is of the utmost importance. The more mentally comfortable a player is, the easier it is for them to perform at their highest levels. With Bryant having departed recently to the Knicks, we’ll soon see if the Jazz’s reliance on him was as great as I expect.

San Antonio Spurs

Total Picks: 17

Average Draft Pick: 40

Pick Outcomes: 52.94% Bust, 17.65% Just a Guy, 11.76% High Rotation, 5.88% Top Starter, 5.88% Borderline All-Star, 5.88% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 5

Total Data Analysts: 5

G-League Team Affiliation: 2007-Present

We’ve all heard it a thousand times, but it needs to continue to be said. The San Antonio Spurs are the golden standard. Bar none. The success they were able to maintain for so long without dips in form is nothing short of incredible and a lot of it has been thanks to their success in the draft. Despite having on average the lowest draft position in the whole league and no lottery picks throughout the entire time period, the Spurs managed to draft Kawhi Leonard, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Kyle Anderson, and countless other quality NBA players. It goes without being said that development had to be a part of their success with these later draft picks, and after examining the Spurs’ philosophy, it is clearly the main driver.

With many teams, player development is mainly focused on key young players. The Spurs take it to a whole ‘nother level. To put it simply, if you are on the Spurs, your development will be prioritized, all the way down to the end of the bench. Take, for example, Davis Bertans, who, entering the 2017-18 season, was a 25-year-old former 42nd overall pick coming off of a season in which he put up 4.5 points per game in only 12.1 minutes per game. You’d think Bertans would be the last person the Spurs would be focusing on in the 2017 offseason. You’d also be wrong. According to an ESPN report by Michael C. Wright, the Spurs went as far as to send a player development coach all the way to Europe to monitor and work out Bertans as he competed with Latvia in Eurobasket 2017. One $80 million contract later, I’m sure Bertans is glad he landed with the Spurs. This commitment to the development of every last player on the roster, along with ace-in-the-hole shooting development coach, Chip Engelland (the person responsible for revamping Kawhi Leonard’s shot), has allowed the Spurs to continue to win along the margins and keep themselves a leg up over the rest of the teams in the Association. With Engelland recently moving on to OKC, we have the opportunity to see how the Spurs adapt to losing arguably the most important figure to their player development operation as they embark on their first true rebuild in over twenty years.

The Worst

Sacramento Kings

Total Picks: 19

Average Draft Pick: 16

Pick Outcomes: 63.16% Bust, 15.79% Just a Guy, 0% High Rotation, 5.26% Top Starter, 10.53% Borderline All-Star, 5.26% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 8

Total Data Analysts: 5

G-League Team Affiliation: 2016-Present

*Sigh*Roll the video.

Ahhh, the Sacramento Kings. You know we have to start with them. To be blunt, the Kings have been terrible for the better part of two decades now and their inability to draft and develop their lottery picks has left them drowning underwater. On top of that, the Kings have, whether intentionally or not, fostered a culture of instability and uncertainty. Since 2006, the last time the Kings made the playoffs, the franchise has gone through twelve different coaches, alienated two star players in Boogie Cousins and Tyrese Haliburton, and attempted to relocate the franchise to another city. Now, to be this organizationally inept, a lot of things need to have gone wrong, but it all starts at the top. While he should be commended (by Kings fans at least) for fighting to keep the team in Sacramento, Vivek Ranadive’s inability to keep himself out of sporting decisions has led to years of basketball failure. According to the Sacramento Bee, Ranadive has contributed to what has been described as “a ‘toxic’ work environment in which ‘people don’t trust each other’”. The last thing you want from an owner is them meddling in sporting decisions or creating an environment as bad as what’s been described. Luckily, the same report mentioned that Ranadive has backed off somewhat since the hiring of new GM Monte McNair in September 2020, so hopefully greener pastures are ahead for those oh-so-loyal Kings fans.

Dallas Mavericks

Total Picks: 14

Average Draft Pick: 31

Pick Outcomes: 71.43% Bust, 7.14% Just a Guy, 0% High Rotation, 14.29% Top Starter, 0% Borderline All-Star, 7.14% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 12

Total Data Analysts: 4

G-League Team Affiliation: 2009-Present

As a Mavs fan myself, I’ve had a front-row seat view of the bad (and good) decisions they’ve made this past decade. Now, I think there are a couple of things in play here when it comes to their past draft failures. Starting off with what has bothered me the most as a fan, the Mavs simply don’t seem to give their rookies enough opportunities. Looking back at the visual from earlier, they’ve played their rookies a lot less than most other NBA teams, a possible symptom of a team coached by renowned vet-lover Rick Carlisle.

One of my biggest gripes recently has been how they’ve handled Josh Green’s development, at least early on. Coming off a covid-shortened offseason in which he was unable to play in Summer League or have a normal training camp, Green, the last first-round pick the Mavs would have while Luka was on a rookie deal, played 11.4 minutes per game in only 39 total games. This wouldn’t have been much of a problem had he been sent down to the G-League to get meaningful reps, yet the Mavs only briefly sent him down for 5 games. Squandering that much time in a player’s development is inexcusable, especially for a player that clearly needed confidence as Green did. Instead, he played sparing minutes for the Mavs, getting pulled after every mistake, dropping his confidence lower and lower. Luckily, this past year Jason Kidd instilled a little more faith in him and sure enough, Green’s confidence grew and he convincingly solidified himself as a rotation player in the regular season.

Similar to the Kings, the Mavs have also suffered somewhat from owner meddling. These incidents have been well documented with Mark Cuban admitting to being the reason the Mavs passed on Giannis (GM Donnie Nelson wanted him) and the Haralabos Voulgaris situation in 2021 which resulted in a complete overhaul of the Mavs front office, where, like Randadive, Cuban has reportedly ceded a little more control to current GM Nico Harrison and special advisors Michael Finley and Dirk Nowitzki.

Los Angeles Clippers

Total Picks: 16

Average Draft Pick: 36

Pick Outcomes: 75.00% Bust, 0% Just a Guy, 6.25% High Rotation, 6.25% Top Starter, 12.50% Borderline All-Star, 0% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 11

Total Data Analysts: 7

G-League Team Affiliation: 2017-Present

The Clippers’ draft shortcomings seem to be easily explained. At the top of the draft, they haven’t performed too poorly, selecting players like Eric Bledsoe, Reggie Bullock, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with their first-round picks. Their issues, instead, come from whiffing on almost every single second-round pick in the same time period which appears largely attributable to under-investment in player development.

Unlike their Los Angeles counterparts, the Clippers didn’t have their own G-League affiliate until 2017 as the Ballmer era got underway, previously sharing the Bakersfield Jam with the Phoenix Suns from 2009-2014. As such, most of these second-rounders either received little to no minutes riding the bench, or were sent to another team’s affiliate where they weren’t developed by members of the Clippers organization. Now with their own G-League team, officially the Ontario (previously Agua Caliente) Clippers as of July 2022, they should be able to flip the script on their second-round success. In fact, we may already be seeing the results of these improvements taking place, with 2019 second-rounder Terance Mann becoming a valuable rotation player after playing 20 games with their new affiliate. In a similar way, Amir Coffey, an undrafted second-rounder in 2019, has been a positive player, contributing 12 points, four rebounds, and three assists per game in 30 games as a starter. Coffey was Agua Caliente’s leading scorer in 2020-21.

Trending in the Right Direction

Memphis Grizzlies

Total Picks: 18

Average Draft Pick: 33

Pick Outcomes: 77.78% Bust, 5.56% Just a Guy, 5.56% High Rotation, 11.11% Top Starter, 0% Borderline All-Star, 0% Franchise/Core

Total Scouts: 5* (some basketball ops guys are functionally scouts)

Total Data Analysts: 4

G-League Team Affiliation: 2014-Present

Although the Grizzlies were awful at drafting and developing talent in the time period I looked at (2010-2018), the organization has turned a corner since. This change has coincided with executive Zach Kleiman’s rapid ascension to his current position as “lead basketball operations executive and personnel decisionmaker” in 2019 and the subsequent hiring of new basketball ops personnel with fresh ideas (over 30 new hirings to be exact). Since then, the Grizzlies have nailed almost every draft pick they’ve made, drafting franchise cornerstone Ja Morant and surrounding him with a plethora of quality homegrown/drafted talent, including Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, and Ziaire Williams. With 2022 draft selections Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, Kennedy Chandler, and Kenny Lofton Jr. already showing promising flashes in preseason, it seems like the Grizzlies have struck gold again.

In regards to player development and infrastructure, the Grizzlies have utilized their Memphis Hustle G-League team well since its inception in 2017, with five members of their 2021-22 roster (including former G-League Player of the Month Kyle Anderson) having spent time in the development league. They rely on their former players’ expertise as well, with Tony Allen hired as a player development coach for the Hustle in January 2020.

What We’ve Learned

When we discuss draft success, talent identification seems to be the main focus, with Bleacher Report redrafts constantly making the rounds on social media. In reality, draft success is the confluence of numerous organizational factors, of which 4 key pillars have emerged: organizational stability/clarity, talent identification, opportunity allocation, and, most importantly, a strong developmental infrastructure. Teams need to be hiring more player development coaches, as the secret to a lot of these good drafting teams is that the players they draft get to work with somebody like Johnnie Bryant, John Beckett, or Chip Engelland the second they arrive in town. Right now, there are simply not enough player dev coaches on most teams to sit down individually with every single player and help them with their development.

The focus tends to mainly be on high-profile prospects like Donovan Mitchell, but so much value could be added by focusing on the others too. The Spurs have perfected this science, using developmental success to sustain a 22-year playoff streak. On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Kings, where organizational instability amongst other things has led to 16 years of playoff despair. Can they close the gap? It’ll be hard, but in a copycat league, the roadmap to success is there for all to follow.

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