The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

The post Top Ten Playoff Scorers of 2024 appeared first on Swish Theory.

While Indiana’s current successes are not wholly tied to Bruce Brown, he exemplifies ‘why’ they have been successful. Anchored by a multitude of intelligent mistake-free ball handlers, Rick Carlisle has found the formula that has led Indiana to the first-ranked offense in both offensive efficiency and half-court offensive efficiency. This offense resembles a metaphorical ‘greatest hits’ of NBA modern offense, all of which will be explored here. Carlisle has long been an offensive mastermind, and this scheme shows he has kept evolving as the game does.

There is no correct way to run an offense. It depends on your personnel: good and bad plays come down to execution and personal preference. Indiana, however are running the majority of the core concepts you see in modern offense (Zoom, Pistol, Delay, Double Stagger screens, Empty Side Actions). While running such a diverse offense, they are still incredible at ball security, with only two teams turning it over fewer times per game. This points to the fact Indiana has managed to have four high-feel ball handlers on the same roster anchoring their scheme (Haliburton, Brown, Nembhard, McConnell).

Indiana’s offense somewhat reminds me of a quote from the late Johan Cruyff:

“Playing football is very simple, but playing simple football is the hardest thing there is.

A lot of what Indiana does schematically is replicable to an extent. But a big reason they are able to play as they do is because they have stacked together some of the better passers and processors in the NBA. Many believe offense is simple and just about quick decisions and letting hoopers get to their spots. What is often undersold is how difficult this can actually be to achieve. Replicating any perceived ‘simplicity’ of the Indiana Pacers motion offense undersells the execution of their modern concepts, and how rare it is to have stockpiled such a variety of smart ball handlers on one roster. Indiana runs their scheme so well that you are often lulled into thinking it is simple. The variety of cuts and freelance screens are created by their ball handlers and their offensive concepts. It’s a sort of Chicken or the Egg Phenomena in which I lean towards one side.

Early Offense and Spain PNRs

Indiana pushes the pace. Per NBA.com, they take the most shots in the ‘very early’ and ‘early’ ranges of the shot clock. This varies between 22 seconds and 15 seconds. They push for quick hitters out of ‘wide’ ball screens such as below.

This isn’t a novel concept, every team runs it. But pushing these early and often sets up quick advantages that have the defense in rotation early. Indiana are a nightmare to play against because of their early decisiveness.

This is where things get interesting. More often than not, NBA teams will take away this wide ball screen. Giving up early threes and allowing early passes is not something NBA teams want to do. Indiana will often counter this with ‘Wide Reject Spain’. This is one of the more common counters in the NBA but no one runs it better than Indiana.

The Pacers push the ball up and Jalen Smith makes a quick glance behind him to set up the wide ball screen. With Danuel House already top-locking Buddy Hield, the Pacers quickly flow into Wide Reject Spain with Buddy Hield setting a back screen on Jalen Smith’s man. Hield is particularly good on this set, and I’d bet very few guards in the NBA set more screens than him. The result is an easy look for TJ McConnell.

These sets become even more effective when Tyrese Haliburton is the ball handler. Haliburton’s blend of shotmaking and passing isn’t new information to anyone reading this. He’s shooting 54 percent on pull-up threes this season. Even if that regresses to last years measly 41 percent (sarcasm), he’s still one of the very best shotmakers in the game. Here he rejects the ‘reject Spain’ action, taking a filthy step back jumper to the defenders left. I’m unsure what you do with this.

A cruel wrinkle Indiana has started to show is using Haliburton as the back screener. You may be confused by the concept of taking Haliburton off the ball, but it genuinely tortures defenses. This is where Indiana’s pursuit of multiple ball handlers has really shown up, I don’t believe they’d have run this wrinkle last year. Below is how it looks.

Andrew Nembhard initiates the pick-and-roll. With Haliburton being the back screener, De’Anthony Melton has no intent of leaving him. Embiid has to go with the hyper-athletic Isaiah Jackson and the result is Nembhard being able to walk into a good look as there is absolutely no at the level help. Though Nembhard misses, this is still superb process as he’s an elite finisher at the rim and from short-mid-range areas (94th and 79th percentiles respectively).

In their recent demolition job of Philadelphia’s elite defense, they went to this set at the end of the game. This time without the Wide Reject window dressing.

Bruce Brown is the initiator this time. Haliburton sets the back screen and it causes the exact same problem as the previous play. The guard has to stay attached to Haliburton. On this occasion, Embiid ignores the roller and tries to close the gap. It doesn’t matter because Bruce Brown scores off the glass with a superb finish. Brown’s finishing numbers are down overall but he’s still an effective finisher. His addition has opened up more wrinkles such as this one.

They also have mixed ‘Wide Reject’ and ‘Spain’ into out of bounds plays such as below.

This play ends up becoming ‘Wide Reject Get Spain Leak’. They try and bring Buddy Hield off a wide ball screen. They’ll sometimes run ‘wide dribble’ where Hield flips it back to Haliburton. Charlotte knows this and denies it, so Haliburton chases his own handoff (Get Action) and they flow into a Spain PNR where Buddy Hield leaks out. This is a common read Rick Carlisle has used before. He’s had two lead guards with such gravity that the back screen often doesn’t need to be set for the play to work.

Indiana will also get into Spain Pick-And-Rolls out of double stagger screens. Like Wide ball screens, we should class Double Staggers as ‘the easy stuff’. Here’s just a very brief example of what allowing these easy quick hitters might look like. Indiana runs ‘Strong Dribble’.

As you can see, this isn’t exactly hard labour for the Pacers. The Wizards allow the free catch and the play gives Tyrese Haliburton easy momentum for a pick-and-roll. This isn’t exactly something you want to make Indiana not have to work hard for.

These are also commonly top-locked by teams because of Indiana’s shooting talent. They have many reads out of their staggers and though they don’t always lead to instantaneous shots, they are still effective. Here we see ‘Strong Reject Spain’.

DeAnthony Melton is glued to Haliburton, so he drifts inside and becomes the back screener in a Spain Pick-And-Roll set. Melton sees Embiid not showing any kind of help so he has to cover the driving lane which leaves Haliburton open. Notice the sheer panic when this happens. Haliburton’s a special shooter. He didn’t receive the ball on the Wide Reject Spains above but above is an example of what the defense thinks when he does receive the ball after leaking out.

In a recent game against the Sixers, they meshed this concept into something different. I label it ‘Strong Reject Wide Dribble Lob’. Naming doesn’t matter, but watch how mean this play is.

Haliburton is top-locked so he flows to the other side of the court. Obi Toppin who was an original screener, receives a wide ball screen. He flips it back to Bruce Brown (Dribble), but watch Haliburton. He this time sets a back screen for Obi Toppin who had ghosted after flipping the ball to Brown. It ends with a lob for Obi Toppin which only ever ends with one result. Though this isn’t a core or common play, it just shows the versatility and creativity Indiana has with their off-ball screening actions. It also showcases Haliburton’s work ethic, the ability to buy into off-ball screening. Not every star does this and it’s great to see Haliburton doing it. Using him as a screener as opposed to trying to force him onto the ball maintains the egalitarian motion offense Rick Carlisle is trying to run.

They also have another counter from their strong reject series. ‘Strong Reject Ram 77’

Buddy Hield is being top locked, so he goes under the screens and sets the first of two on ball screens (77). Though the play doesn’t instantly get a bucket, the constant activity occupies all defenders and allows Andrew Nembhard to create a bucket off the dribble. Also note Hield and Turner setting a freelance double stagger, and Obi Toppin making a great backcut. This Pacers team makes a lot of smart off-ball reads that make their offense even scarier and harder to defend. Others create advantages, but guys who can elongate and eventually hammer home these advantages matter. It’s another great counter when the easy stuff is taken away.

They have another counter from their strong series. It comes in the form of ‘Oklahoma’ Action. This is part of the double drag series that involves a double drag where after setting an on ball pick, the second screener turns round and sets a screen for the first screener.

Though this doesn’t necessarily fit the criteria for reject, it’s clear Hield is going to get any kind of a shot off the initial stagger screens. So he becomes the first screener in a double drag. Jalen Smith then turns and gives Hield an off-ball screen in Oklahoma Action. This is such a diverse offense with multiple counters. Taking away the ‘easy stuff’ is becoming more common, but Indiana’s mix of diverse counters and smart ball handlers means the second and third reads become easy stuff.

Indiana needs very little excuse to get into any actions they love. They will get into their Spain PNR straight from an out of bounds play like below.

The Pacers are capable of scoring on the easy stuff, but to them, the more complex plays become the easy stuff. They get into their core plays early and often and it’s why this offense is historically great.

Pistol, Doom and Zoom

If you’re trying to collect the greatest hits of any NBA Coach, Pistol and Zoom are always going to be on the agenda. Indiana loves guard screening more than any other team. Per a source with Second Spectrum, no team utilises more guard screens then Indiana. Every team in the NBA uses Pistol entries. And Indiana’s guard screens are not limited to pistol. But think as Pistol guard screening actions as just the tip of the Iceberg for Indiana.

Here’s the most basic look of it.

Pistol entry for Nembhard on an empty side. A simple ball reversal ends in Zoom (Chicago) action that eventually flows into an empty-side action. Per a Second Spectrum source, the Pacers rank inside the top 10 for the frequency of empty-side screening actions. They push them early and had the option twice on this one play.

They also utilise the base ‘Pistol Flare’ action.

This play works because it uses a very effective screen (more on that later) to clear out help defense and stop teams loading up on aggressive strong-side overloads. With the sheer pace that Haliburton operates at, instant advantages are created. Here the play ends with a Myles Turner three. He’s shooting 40 percent on these shots this year. The swinging hypothetical for this team feels as if it will be centered around Turner’s three-point efficiency.

The pistol touches aren’t anything groundbreaking, but like their wide and strong series I like some of their reads and counters. They like to run what I call ‘Doom’ Action, which is simply a cool name for Double Zoom Action. Meaning instead of one screen, you receive two before coming off the handoff. It can also be called Chicago Extra.

Tyrese Haliburton pitches the ball and then sets a screen for Buddy Hield to come off and collect a handoff. The concept doesn’t lead to an immediate shot but it more showcases their offensive philosophy. Constant motion in 5-out looks. No wasted seconds or waiting for stuff to develop. Just constant pass and move basketball. They’ll also get into the action out of ‘Flip’ as they do below.

Flip is a simple concept to get pretty much any player involved, and meshing it with a concept that gets Haliburton starting the play off-ball is excellent scheming. With many teams choosing to invert personnel and just trying to dictate where defenders have to be, you will see a rise in this doom look.

Zoom is a good platform to get the defense moving, but also to get your own players moving. Here’s a play showcasing how Indiana’s fundamentals fit into the actions overall effectiveness.

Constant ball reversals but action with a purpose. The purpose is quite simple. The Pacers are trying to stop gap help as often as possible. Zoom action quite often achieves this purpose, but mixing a flare screen in on the weakside makes the action even harder to defend because the first gap helper (Robert Covington) gets flared by Buddy Hield. It gives Bennedict Mathurin some extra space to work with.

Another way to dissuade gap help is by using the ‘weakside flip’

You can see the Jazz defense zeroed in on the Zoom Action. Teams like to try and congest the slot to deter Chicago Action. But you can see the low man (Keyonte George) is also expecting a flare. The weakside Flip of the screen from Bennedict Mathurin gives Haliburton an extra step which is a gigantic advantage for a player of Haliburton’s level.

Every NBA team runs pistol, it’s not a newsflash. But I hope explaining why it works somewhat adds to the discourse.

Flare Screens, Ghost Screens and other Tidbits

Rick Carlisle’s teams also use guard screens heavily. Sometimes this is to hunt specific matchups. But if you are playing for him, you are going to work offensively. There is no such thing as low usage in the way Rick Carlisle coaches. He expects you to do stuff. His teams utilise both actual guard screens and ‘ghost’ screens.

The Pacers run ‘Iverson Out’. Normally this is run with a big as the screener. But Rick Carlisle wants to get Zach LaVine in the action so Nesmith is the screener. Simple stuff, but has to be noted that Rick Carlisle teams do this at a well above average rate. He once countered a Ty Lue playoff adjustment where Lue put Ivica Zubac on Dorian Finney-Smith to have him as a constant weakside helper, by just running every pick and roll set with Finney-Smith as a screener. This is a philosophy of his, you work and you screen.

They love ghost screens as a team. Here they have two on one possession which ends with Bennedict Mathurin getting an empty side all to himself.

Note how Mathurin sets a ghost screen himself before getting one to give him a look from his area of the floor. It’s a further reminder of how these players put in work off the ball.

I also like how Indiana involves their guards in ‘double drag’ actions, known as 77 Action.

Here they use Tyrese Haliburton as the second screener. Like the Spain plays earlier, this does scare the defense. It’s opened up heavily by Indiana’s variety of smart ball handlers, but part of it is also Rick Carlisle’s philosophy. You will be involved.

They’ll mix ghost screens into their late-game offense.

The Pacers use Haliburton as a fake flex screener then have him dart to the top of the key. Buddy Hield ‘ghost screens’ for him and the initial separation eventually leads to an open bucket.

Here’s why ghost screens work. It attacks good defensive practices. Players will position themselves high to try and delay the ball handler.

Gordon Hayward is showing at the level, but when Hield ghosts the screen he has to go with him because of his shooting gravity. This creates a corner for Tyrese Haliburton. An easy answer is to switch this action but this is also a big reason Carlisle loves incorporating guard screens into his base motion offense. It’s not got the normal sluggishness of switch hunting if you mesh it into your plays.

This takes me to the final, and perhaps most important part of the article. The Indiana Pacers love flare screens. We have many screens in Basketball, dozens of them. But with the way modern NBA defenses are operating, the Flare Screen might be the most important one in the League. Let’s explain why.

Though there are 30 NBA teams who all have slightly different defensive philosophies, there are a few constants across most of the NBA. These are ‘No Middle’, and nail help. These go slightly hand in hand as it’s tough to deny the middle without nail help. But these are the cornerstones for most NBA teams. Flare screens are the most effective screen to attack these.

Indiana runs ‘iverson out’ for Tyrese Haliburton. He is important to explaining this play. More often than not, teams like to load up on empty-side actions because they are so difficult to defend. When you add someone such as Tyrese Haliburton to the equation it’s downright terrifying. Teams will load up on early help early in the shot clock as they do here.

There are four players watching a two-man action. This isn’t bad defense, it’s by design. It’s where no middle comes in. If Jordan Clarkson is on Bruce Brown like he would be in a traditional defense, Tyrese Haliburton is almost certainly going to get to the middle. No Middle has always been a preference for coaches such as Tom Thibodeau, but it feels as if it’s become the rule in modern NBA defense. It’s non negotiable. Below is why the flare can beat this.

If a defense is defending with a sort of zonal concept (overloading the strong side), then a flare screen can attack it. Myles Turner lingering inside the arc as opposed to being on the three-point line obviously helps, but it’s not required. It is almost a way to protect your core offense and empty-side actions. Remind the nearest nail helper that if he glances too far, he’s going to get flare screened.

In an era where teams genuinely are just loading up on primary guys and trying to rob you of vertical drives into the paint, the flare screen is more important than it’s ever been. The achilles heel of a flare screen comes with regards to how much skill the person catching the ball has as both a shooter and a driver. With Indiana having so many ball handlers, they’re extra effective.

Will Hardy’s Utah Jazz also use the concept, notably to support empty-side actions.

These are embedded into Indiana’s offense. They don’t just come during set plays. Below is an example.

Tyrese Haliburton goes into a pick-and-roll. Myles Turner sets a flare screen that would give Aaron Nesmith a wide-open three if Hali decided to use it. If you think I’m over exaggarating these flare screens, just know I’m not. Not every team does these, and there certainly aren’t many teams with them embedded into their basic off-ball reads. They’re automatic.

Aaron Nesmith in particular is a really active screener in freelance or broken situations. The play below illustrates this.

TJ McConnell pushes in early offense to no avail. Nesmith receives the ball, plays the skip pass then ghost screens for Tyrese Haliburton and pops off a flare screen to the empty corner. This leads to easy ball movement for a bucket on the inside. Ghost screens and flare screens are a major part of this offense and mixing them into the same play is never a bad idea.

On this play, Bennedict Mathurin uses the gravity of Tyrese Haliburton to his own advantage. He briefly sells a flare screen which forces Jordan Clarkson to stay inside (no middle), then he actually ghosts the screen and gets a wide open three. Again, watch the flare screen on the weak side of the play. It’s just automatic with this team.

As I’ve noted previously, Indiana have counters upon counters. They even have these for flare screens. It involves actually setting fake flare screens and incorporating them into their offense. Here’s an example.

The Pacers go into a pick-and-roll, and again you see the weakside flare screen designed to occupy any potential help defenders. The Wizards play it which gives the environment required for ‘veer’ action to work. On this occasion the flare was really a decoy designed to create space for the veer action. They’ll run this for both Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin and it was part of their playbook last season.

Wrapping Up

Overall, the Pacers offense is pretty special. This is a team that has acquired an insane amount of high-feel players and built the correct system around them. It’s an offense that is basically running all the greatest hits of modern basketball offenses, but running them better than everyone else.

There is a common theorem amongst coaches regarding the attitude of ‘plays can be stopped, but concepts can’t’. I don’t fully agree with this sentiment, because sometimes you need to run the right plays for your concepts to shine through. Indiana are a team who support my theory on this. What they do might look easy to replicate, but the Cruyff-like simplicity with which they play does not correlate with it taking little effort. It is a result of having acquired an amount of feel across the roster that many teams have never had. This hasn’t happened by accident, it’s what they’ve built towards. Replicating this or trying to be a copycat, may end up being a fools’ errand.

The post Rick Plays the Hits: The Concepts Fueling the Indiana Pacers’ Leading Offense appeared first on Swish Theory.

After being a lottery choice by the Boston Celtics and beginning to establish a rotation spot at the end of his sophomore season, he was dealt over the offseason to the Indiana Pacers as part of a package for current Trailblazers guard Malcolm Brogdon. Not only did he have to change cities, but a particular tweet set something off inside him.

In the reactionary culture of disrespect and inhumanity that is NBA aggregation social media (led by the bright minds at Bleacher Report, in my opinion), a former lottery pick beginning to break out was boiled down to a Spongebob meme.

Nesmith took this personally, determined to make Bleacher Report look silly for the disrespect they sent his way.

As he begins his second season in Indiana, having secured a 3-year/$33M contract extension, Aaron Nesmith is far more than a paperclip and some string.

Offense Overview

Nesmith is beginning to see a defined offensive role with an up-and-coming Indiana squad. He’s the guy who occupies the corners as a shooting threat, relocates and lifts to the wings when the offense calls for it and slashes to the rim if the defense sells too hard to stop his shot. His shot chart on Cleaning the Glass reflects this development of his role:

He’s been firm from deep since arriving in Naptown: 39.3% from the corners on 168 attempts, and 36.6% on 194 attempts above the break. That’s not going to break the defense by any means. But when teams are keyed in on Tyrese Haliburton‘s on-ball creation and Buddy Hield‘s off-ball movement, a strong corner guy who can lift is an important complementary piece. Let’s look closer at how his shooting role has blossomed.

Developing Shooting Versatility

It’s important to start with the form. Nesmith has quietly turned up the speed on his shot, moving from 1 to 1.5x speed like an ADHD-laden podcast listener. This has opened up a further tree of shots he can get off as the contest arrives.

Jordan Poole is sagging slightly off Nesmith in the corner, but it’s still a tight window to get the release off before the shot contest arrives. The speed of the release works to create a more open shot that a slower gather would turn into a contested one.

He doesn’t necessarily have to hit the turbo button on ALL of his releases. When he has an extra beat to step into a shot, he knows when to take it in order to compose himself.

Beyond spotting up from the corners and the occasional spot-up wing 3, Nesmith shows a knack for when to lift and relocate, opening himself up to easier passes and making reads simpler for the ballhandlers.

The initial Myles Turner screen for Buddy Hield‘s flare gets nowhere with Jevon Carter blowing it up, so they flow into a middle dribble handoff with Nesmith in the strong corner. Drummond plays in a higher drop, meaning DeMar DeRozan will tag from the strong corner. Aaron reads this fluidly, knowing that lifting from the corner will create an easier read for Hield. If he stuck in the corner, DeRozan would have a chance of deflecting the pass. Even though the shot is missed, that is quality process from a young wing to make life easier for his cohorts.

Here’s another example below of reading his man and how to manipulate:

With Georges Niang guarding him, both Nesmith and Jalen Smith realize a little movement can go a long way. Smith comes to set the flare as the offense begins to flounder, timing it well with the Bruce Brown middle drive. Tristan Thompson, not known for being fleet of foot, is unable to get out to get a quality contest as Niang dies on the screen. Cash from the break.

I’ve also enjoyed what Nesmith’s shooting combined with his functional strength as a screener can open up for the offense. Here’s another possession taking advantage of the Georges Niang matchup, this time directly in the action:

Niang flashes on the ball to deter Haliburton and let Isaac Okoro, knowing he will get destroyed if he fully switches the screen. The good screen forces a long flash, and Nesmith fades across the top of the arc, drawing a long closeout from Niang in recovery. A nice jab step makes Georges think about the drive, opening up a clean look that he bottoms. That’s some excellent leverage of his shooting ability to accentuate the danger that Tyrese brings to the floor.

Here’s a different example of screening for Haliburton in order to test the switching of the defense. Charlotte likes switching with their smaller lineups and is also determined to deny Haliburton’s scoring. With the side cleared for the screen action, Nesmith comes to screen and fades to the corner. PJ Washington doubles early trying to help out LaMelo Ball, so Hali floats it to the corner as Mark Williams is forced into the long closeout (due to the cleared side). Nesmith has time to compose himself before splashing from the corner.

Though he doesn’t exactly have a long leash to handle on the ball, there are small glimpses of dribble threes when called for. With former Vanderbilt teammate Darius Garland trying to close him out in the corner, Aaron sees the desperation closeout coming and uses a slick dribble relocation to get himself a better shot:

Nesmith doesn’t have the most prolific midrange game (36th percentile amongst forwards last season), but he shows quality coordination and a package of moves to get there when the offense calls for it. Even if it’s just 1 shot per game on average, it serves to keep the defense guessing.

Granted, we are only 1/8th of the way through the season, but a scorching 46% mark from deep (54% corners, 38% ATB) is going to force defenses into some tough decisions. He’s exploring what he can do off movement and relocation to boot, a great sign that we are headed for a breakout perimeter scoring season. It also serves to open up what has been the most impressive part of his game:

Loud Drives

Going into this article, I really expected to see a mixed bag here. I was absolutely floored by what I saw on the tape. You rarely expect a “closeout attacking” guy to pop, but my eyes were flying at the screen like a Looney Tune.

What struck me the most was the incredible balance he shows while flying into the paint from the corners, often at full speed:

Navigating the baseline without taking charges and getting these kinds of finishes impressed me to a high degree. I couldn’t find drives where he pressed too hard or predetermined when he was going to drive either, which is a major sign. He’s quickly reading and reacting to how the defense plays his shot and choosing his spots to drive based on those reads.

That kind of selectivity was also present on non-corner drives. He knows when to press his advantage against an unsettled or subpar defender, and has enough handle to beat them:

Catching Jaylen Brown (he’s not a good defender – wake up, sheeple) flat-footed and drawing the foul is impressive. Going after Kristaps Porzingis with the rim protection drawn out and using the rim to shield a tough reverse finish is superb awareness and execution.

Nesmith’s creation off the drive (creation in general, really) doesn’t jump off the page. He has one of the lowest assist rates amongst all forwards, but there are momentary flashes of playmaking excellence based on how the defense defends his drives.

There are moments where the aggression delivers something spectacular, as you see on this corner drive:

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle has leveraged this success on the drive into quick, repeatable offense for Nesmith by running dribble handoffs. Giving Aaron momentum and playing off the leverage that his shot creates has generated some very nice results so far in the young season.

Notice how the “delay” action from Jalen Smith clears a side for the handoff, putting the potential help right in front of Nesmith and allowing him to read with ease as he powers to the cup. That’s how you put things on a plate for a young potential creator.

Another instance of powering right through the perimeter dig, only this time Nesmith is presented with a much tougher task of finishing over Evan Mobley. Aaron hits him with a drag step to put the DPOY candidate behind the play and finishes high off the glass for good measure.

This part of Nesmith’s game gets me incredibly excited for his future. Being a guy who shoots well from outside and can slash from time to time already keeps you on the floor. Running a DHO now and then in addition to some strong mismatch attacks on the drive takes him to the next level of offensive utility. What can he unlock next?

Now, let’s dig into the last major area of offensive strength:

Glass Crashing

You want to talk excitement? Watch Aaron Nesmith going for an offensive rebound in a crowd.

Flying in from the perimeter, fighting through a boxout, or just flat-out wanting it more than the other guy. There are a lot of different ways that Nesmith can win on the glass.

I would be remiss if I didn’t put in this play I titled “attempted murder” in my clips folder:

If someone tried doing this to me at a 24-Hour Fitness, I would be compelled to throw hands just to regain some of my honor. Granted, I would only make a further ass out of myself, but it’s the principle of the thing.

At 6’6″, Nesmith is in the 57th percentile of forwards this season in terms of offensive rebounding. Though not on elite levels, he is usually much shorter than his counterpart, so he has to find creative ways to win. The fact that he does it at a well above-average level is nothing to sneeze at.

The top 8 lineups Indiana uses Nesmith in, according to total possessions, all involve him playing the 4. A league-average team offensive rebounding rate is roughly 27%; six of those eight Nesmith lineups clear that threshold, with the most used lineup pulling down 35% of their own misses. Obviously, there are four other guys out there helping with that number, but the common throughline is Aaron’s infectious energy and effort.

Growth Areas

Right now, Nesmith slots in as a quality off-ball wing with plenty of shooting, a splash of driving, and a strong nose for the ball on the offensive glass. At 24 years old and locked in with his team for at least the next three seasons, the question becomes what else he can add.

First and foremost, I’d like to see Nesmith add more midrange counters to his attacks. As you can see from the shot chart earlier, it’s threes, rim attempts, or nothing. Granted, those are the two most valuable shots. That doesn’t mean a midrange attempt from him would be a bad shot if attacking the closeout in front of the help defense, or making the defense pay for a deep drop on his dribble handoffs. Nesmith hasn’t been the highest-quality midrange shooter throughout his young career, especially in the shorter-range looks, but some extra repetition would be a boon. If anything, it would just make the defense think twice and open up more rim looks.

Another thing you may have noticed, concerning his finishing attempts, is that very few of them come with the left hand. This has severely limited his available tree of finishes; though he can make tough reverse finishes going around the rim or inverted finishes on the left side of the rim, it would be nice to see some development on that end. This would also enable Indiana to run some of the current DHO looks from the right wing of the floor, so he can dribble left-handed into the rim and use his left for finishes. Without it, defenses can key in on his tendencies and will have an easier time preventing his effective looks in the paint.

Lastly, I’d like to see an improved sense of playmaking from Aaron. He can create well by getting downhill and collapsing the defense, but he needs to mix in more passes on those drives. Sure, he can finish really well even with multiple defenders committed, but he tends to miss layoff passes or kickouts to the high-quality shooters on the team. That would be an extra layer to add that helps him take the next leap offensively.

Now, let’s dig into the less glamorous side of the ball.

Defensive Overview

The defensive catch-alls are tough to parse out with Nesmith. Indiana currently has the second-highest pace of any team in the league, and surrenders the second-most points per game with the fourth-worst defensive rating around. The ridiculous offense has turned them into a good team, but it makes it more difficult to figure out who is helping this defense keep things together (if you can call it that) vs. who is actively harming it.

To me, Nesmith solidly falls in the former group. Indiana concedes just north of 120 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but underneath that are some strong lineups. Three of the five most common Nesmith lineups that Indiana uses have a defensive points per 100 of 106.7 or lower; that 120 mark is being reached because of the second most common lineup, which features a Tyrese Haliburton/Bennedict Mathurin backcourt that concedes over 150 points per 100. Below is an approximation of what Hali/Benny perimeter stopping feels like.

I won’t pontificate too much on why Nesmith is better than the numbers would suggest. Let’s look deeper at the film.

On/Off Ball Event Creation

On subpar defensive teams, creating steals and blocks is a major tool to keep their heads above water. It serves both to cover for mistakes and juice the transition offense, which for Indiana is quite good. Since Nesmith’s arrival, he has been strongly above-average in defensive event creation. Last season, his steal and block rates were 63rd and 67th percentile (respectively) amongst forwards, and he is on a similar track through the start of this season, creating 2.1 defensive events per 75 possessions.

The steals are far more sustainable given his length (+6 wingspan) and overall hustle. He’s able to generate some of these simply by getting hands in passing lanes that others could not reach with his size.

Nesmith is disciplined about keeping his arms up to prevent passing windows and has quick hands to disrupt ballhandlers when the opportunity presents itself. Many of the steals are generally born out of hustle. Nesmith was highly regarded for his motor coming into the draft, and you rarely catch him with his foot off the gas pedal.

Look at the score on that clip. This kind of hustle will endear you to coaches, and make opponents resent you, which is a great spot to be in as a defender.

I also enjoyed the block creation from Nesmith. His sense of timing, verticality, and a dash of explosive athleticism have produced some defensive virtuosity.

The last possession impressed me the most. With Myles Turner switched out on the perimeter, Nesmith represents the last-ditch defense for a 5-out pick-and-roll with Paul Reed. Aaron gets himself in position at the last second for a do-or-die shot contest in the restricted area. You wouldn’t fault him for wrapping up Reed and forcing him to get points at the line in this scenario. Instead, he meets Reed at the apex with verticality to force a tougher finish and prevent the points entirely. That’s the goods right there.

There are other instances of Nesmith being a heady defender, working through switches to contain the opposition and still managing to create events:

This is a nice set by Cleveland. Caris LeVert sets the initial backscreen to force the switch from Andrew Nembhard off Darius Garland, which acts as window dressing for LeVert cutting into an empty lane. One hiccup: Nesmith reads it, peels off Garland once LeVert is committed to the roll, and packs the shot off the backboard. That’s a blend of athleticism and awareness that makes me giddy.

With Indiana struggling to form a good defense, Nesmith continuing to spin gold out of twine is going to be necessary. This is especially true with his off-ball creation, as teams will continue to attack Haliburton and Mathurin with gusto, and they need someone other than Myles Turner to clean up the mess.

Perimeter Stopping

We’ve established that Nesmith is a great vertical and straight-line athlete, but perimeter stopping takes more on the margins to really stand out. Quick feet and quicker hips are the keys that unlock a true stopper. Aaron has showcased that he has both in spades on several occasions.

On the above play, his hips are initially opened to the left anticipating a screen, but Strus rejects it in the hope that he can catch Nesmith a step late on the empty side. However, Aaron is too quick, closing down space in a split second and sticking to the drive to force a tough floater attempt. Not on his watch.

Here’s another example of those hips in action:

He’s no Shakira, but that is some quality hip movement. He does end up a step high after the second flip which gives Terry Rozier a window for the drive, but this is where the athleticism and length can make up for small positioning mistakes. That is a common theme of his perimeter game: physical tools making up for small mistakes.

He angles his hips the wrong direction on the above play against Malaki Branham, a similarly explosive athlete. But he’s able to flip himself back in the right direction after realizing the error, moving his feet well and using that off arm to force a tough attempt at the rim. Again, the benefits of having that 7-foot wingspan.

That athleticism/length combination also serves him well in trail defense. As his screen navigation is still a work in progress, he finds himself behind the play quite a bit, but has a unique ability to get himself re-involved even after being detached with a good screen:

What impressed me the most was the variety of matchups Nesmith is asked to take on. With Indiana employing lots of switching in lineups with him at the 4, he often found himself on much bigger players that could put the ball on the deck. I was surprised at how well he contained those matchups.

Though the above play ends in a foul, I still think he does a great job embracing Giannis’ physicality in order to force a tougher shot. Most wings would simply end up having a dunk land on their head, so credit where credit is due.

It generally feels like teams are figuring out “how can we beat this guy?” in a variety of ways. In this instance, Gordon Hayward tries to win by backing down Nesmith:

Look how focused Nesmith is on keeping Hayward out of the restricted area. He’s getting low to establish leverage, moving his feet to cut off angles, and using that off hand to prevent a layup while using the inside hand for further leverage. Outstanding stuff there.

This isn’t to say he is without mistakes. Nesmith is still working on his angles and how to set up initially to contain drives. It certainly gets him in trouble at times.

This is a problem that shows up often when screens are present on the handler he is trying to contain. To me, that is his biggest area of growth to work on as a perimeter stopper. He needs to work on feeling the screen coming, getting himself in the proper position to deny the easy looks, and being proactive with his screen nav instead of reactive. Anticipate, adapt, overcome. That’s the name of the game.

Now, on to the last portion of his defensive game that caught my eye.

Strength/Length Enabling Switching

We saw above how Nesmith’s functional strength and wingspan advantages help him contain bigs that can put the ball on the deck. But what happens when the bruisers of the league get him on a switch and try to back him under the basket?

You’ve probably guessed, given the tenor of this article: it doesn’t go well for the bigs.

They can clear a side, take away all the help they want, and put their biggest guy in the post on him. It doesn’t seem to matter. The low leverage he creates, combined with the aforementioned strength, means Nesmith is not easy pickings for even the most adept post-up bigs. The season is young, but players are only 2/8 when testing Aaron in the post, good for 0.73 points per possession.

But, this isn’t to say that Nesmith is perfect by all accounts. This brings us to our last section, covering both offense and defense.

Brain Farts

Nesmith is prone to some lapses in judgment on both ends. There are also some general miscues that can be tough to explain at times.

On the offensive end, Nesmith can get a little carried away at times, leading to some head-scratching turnovers.

You could have called two separate travels there in all likelihood. Talk about happy feet.

Then you have this one, where frankly I’m not sure what the plan was:

There are smaller lapses too. This one felt like an NFL receiver looking upfield before he secures the catch:

It doesn’t help that he gets behind the play by hesitating momentarily, leaving his teammate alone to handle the 2v1 fast break.

On the defensive end of the floor, Nesmith has a serious problem with pump fakes. He’s not the first or the last young perimeter defender with that issue (heck, even some of the olds still have it) but it feels like every single one works.

It’s not the worst, but it’s something to monitor as he takes on more defensive responsibility. At the pace that Indiana plays at (see what I did there?), guys are going to be flying around. He needs to learn to keep himself in check and play under more control, but without sacrificing the aggression that makes him so good.

Instances like the one below were also common. X-ing out the wing shooters is basic stuff for a wing defender, even one as young as Nesmith. He can’t afford to be consistently late in recognizing it and doing his duty:

Some of these brain farts are just funny, some are a bit more concerning. Having some lapses now and then is fine, but the out-of-control turnovers, biting on fakes constantly, and failing to X-out can be real problems. It’s something worth monitoring going forward.

Speaking of…

Future Outlook

It’s possible Nesmith never rises above the level of a strong rotation player or 4th/5th starter. But that’s more than fine considering what Indiana is paying him (roughly 7% of the cap over 3 years), and what he was acquired for.

There are two NBA misconceptions at play here. One, development isn’t linear. Some guys take a while to find it, some hit the ceiling early and continue chugging on at a certain level. It’s often very difficult to predict either.

Second, a late lottery pick turning into a rotation guy isn’t a disappointment by any means. The Pacers bought low on him in the Brogdon trade, and have seen a strong return on that investment. Even if Nesmith caps out at where he is already, that’s still a great piece to have.

This isn’t to say that Nesmith has reached his ceiling. A breakout in terms of expanded offense and true lockdown defense might be in the cards, and I am inclined to think more is coming if the shooting breakout continues. He has all of the physical tools in his bag and has shown a lot of awareness on both ends of the floor. Guys like that have very few limits and will go as far as they want to go.

Aaron Nesmith is one of the more entertaining role player watches in the league, and as the star of Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers (hopefully) continues to rise, there will be more eyes on their two-way wing. I, for one, am extremely excited to see where he goes from here.

The post Finding a Role: Aaron Nesmith appeared first on Swish Theory.