Small edges drive on-court play as well. A defense will tag a roller because that corner three shooter can’t make them pay the way the pick-and-roll can. An offense will hunt a switch to find a slightly worse defender for their best player to attack. A coach goes bigger to create rebounds, while another goes smaller to shoot more and run in transition. On and on the dance goes all game long, until the edges one team creates outdo the other.

But these are all defined by small edges. When a significant edge is discovered, it blows the game wide open. The Moreyball-era Houston Rockets are the best example of this. They eschewed the midrange game to maximize threes and layups; at their peak, in 2017-18, Houston took 47% of their shots from deep and 35% at the rim. Their midrange frequency was dead last in the league. In fact, from 2012 to 2022, Houston was dead last in midrange frequency in every single season. With James Harden at the helm, they finished with a top-10 offense every season. That revolution broke the game open.

The average NBA team in 2024-25 took 39% of their shots from deep and 31% at the rim. If you go back to the first year of the Harden/Morey pairing in 2012-13, the average was 22% from three and 36% at the rim. The midrange has cratered from the most frequent shot (42%) to the least frequent (30%) in just over ten years. That was the product of the three-point gold rush.

Now, every team is on the hunt for shooting. Guards, wings, and even some bigs that can’t hit shots beyond the arc are losing value by the minute. Everyone saw the light, and the big edge generated by the “dunks and threes” philosophy has become a small edge. Thus, the search for the newest big edge begins. And I’m here to tell you now, steals are the next big edge that will create a gold rush in the NBA. Let me explain.

The Hypothesis

For these purposes, we’ll be focusing on the playoffs. The end goal of all teams is to lift that Larry come June. So, unless stated otherwise, I’ll be using playoff stats to explain the value of the steal.

Per Cleaning the Glass (like all my stats!), the average transition possession in the 2024/25 playoffs is worth 1.14 points. Conversely, the average halfcourt possession is worth 0.96 points. Going even deeper, the average transition possession coming from a steal is worth 1.36 points. These numbers will form the basis of my thinking.

Pushing a normal half-court possession into transition qualifies as a small edge. Take the Indiana Pacers, the best pushers of live rebounds in these playoffs. Indiana scores 1.05 points per half-court possession, which is the best mark of all playoff teams. They score 1.35 points per transition chance off a live rebound, also the best mark in these playoffs. So, roughly, any live rebound they push in a hurry is worth 0.3 extra points per possession. That’s a strong edge when you add up their average mark of 32.7 defensive rebounds per game.

But Indiana didn’t add the most points per 100 possessions through transition play of these playoffs. They finished behind two other teams: the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder. LA lost a tight first-round series to the powers of Nikola Jokic, so I can’t fault their process. Oklahoma City’s transition prowess has defined them all year and continued into the postseason. In addition to the second-most points added via the average transition possession, they have the second highest transition frequency behind only the Detroit Pistons (who have a third of the sample size).

This is where the steals come into play. OKC led the league in steals per game in the regular season, and has generated the highest turnover rate in this postseason. The formula that fueled them all year has put them three games from a championship: we are going to take the ball from you, and we are going to score.

Let’s do some rough math here—the Thunder average 10.6 steals per game in these playoffs and score 1.43 points per transition possession off a steal. For argument’s sake, let’s say two of those 11 steals don’t turn into transition, because I don’t have the money for the fancy sites that could tell me this. So, nine transition possessions per game at 1.43 PPP equals 12.87 points. Their Finals opponents, the Indiana Pacers, generate 7.5 steals per game at 1.38 PPP. Being generous and saying six of those turn into transition, that’s 8.28 points. Oklahoma City is developing 4.59 extra points per game in transition with their steal rates compared to Indiana.

And that’s not where the math stops. Remember that the average halfcourt offensive possession has been worth 0.96 points. Unlike a blocked shot, a steal is a guaranteed zero. Possession ends. Finito. So, if you’re the Thunder, a steal that takes away 0.96 points and adds 1.21 on average (12.87 transition points added divided by 10.6 steals). That’s 2.17 net points per steal leading to transition.

Alright, that was a lot of math. Take a breather. We have a bit more to get through.

A 2.17-point swing on a given possession is a MASSIVE edge by NBA standards. Let’s consider the small edges that teams look for again. The average NBA player shot 35.8% from three this postseason. So, the average three was worth 1.074 points. If shooting was your problem, you looked for upgrades. Let’s say a GM moves a player taking four threes per game at league average rates for a player hitting 38% of four threes per game. That’s an extra 0.066 points per shot, and 0.264 per game. Stretched over 82 games, that’s 21.65 total points in a season. Those are the margins we’re operating on here.

Now, I am throwing context out. That extra shooting edge may open up more plays, change defensive coverages against your primary options, and improve your points per possession in ways that are harder to quantify. But don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater here. If a steal can be worth two points, finding a player that averages 1.5 steals to 1.0 can add an extra point each game. The additive nature of each steal is far above any edge you can reasonably create.

Put it like this. Steph Curry took ten threes per game in these playoffs, making 40%. That’s 12 points per game for the greatest shooter in NBA history. If a league average playoff shooter took that volume, it adds up to 10.74 points. Gravity aside, Steph was worth 1.26 more points per game than your typical shooter. That’s worth less than the average steal. And there’s only one Steph Curry, and only one team has that edge. Plenty of teams can find a way to generate an extra steal.

The Application

Maybe you’re thinking this is junk math. I’m not Daryl Morey. I don’t know how to build complex data models to flesh out the values of each individual play. I’m a guy with a laptop and a premium stats subscription who watches a concerning amount of basketball. You can nitpick the math, but the critical assumptions remain: on average, the steal is now the most valuable play in basketball. Now the question becomes, how does this manifest?

Teams may try to find the next Dyson Daniels (a player I have written about time after time). The third-year Aussie went from bench piece on a middling Pelicans team to First Team All-Defense by wrangling three steals per game with the Hawks. That’s an astronomical number of steals, one unlikely to be repeated.

But let’s look at something more attainable: Alex Caruso, acquired for pennies on the dollar, is keying this Thunder defense. His 1.7 steals per game are worth 3.7 points to Oklahoma City this postseason.

There are other ways to get in on the gold rush. Point guards like Tyrese Haliburton, typically admonished for being “conservative passers,” may increase in value. He who prevents transition chances is as good as the man who creates them, in a sense. Teams may hunt for stellar transition defenders like Draymond Green, Andrew Nembhard, Derrick White, and Derrick Jones Jr. It’s no coincidence that some of the best transition players in the league are/were part of teams that have made deep playoff runs in recent memory.

You don’t need me to find evidence of the rising value of the steal. I constantly come back to the Thunder—in addition to their lead in forced turnovers this postseason, their offense has the second-best turnover rate. If Indiana were to beat them in these Finals, I’d bet on that win being fueled by transition and a shift in the turnover deficit. Just look at Game 3 last night. Indiana won the steal battle 13-6, scoring 1.25 points per transition chance off a steal. That right there swung the 116-107 victory.

The last great NBA dynasty was put over the top by three-point shooting. The next champion will be fueled by the steal.

The post Steals: The NBA’s Next Gold Rush appeared first on Swish Theory.

It must also be said that these teams have just the right amount of neanderthal DNA to, sure, probably get curb-stomped by OKC in round 2, but to put on a show in the meantime. Through two games, WTF moments in the clutch and jagged edges — like Jokić’s defense and Dunn’s offense…Ben Simmons — have not subtracted intrigue, but added character. With a 1-1 split heading into Thursday’s game 3, each team has lost the game they played better in. These teams are weird! Anyway, let’s get to it.

Denver’s incomplete defense on Kawhi

Let’s start with the big stuff. Kawhi Leonard dropped 39 points in Game 2 after a poor Game 1, and the Denver Nuggets didn’t really adjust how they defended him when he got it going. Though he melted their face off with absurd shot-making, I’ve actually liked Denver’s overall philosophy vs. Kawhi. He got going early in Game 2 by feasting on cross-matches in semi-transition, but the Nuggets didn’t panic because they’ve been conceding switches and loading help toward him anyway.

That’s a fine plan, and they’ve been able to execute it without allowing Kawhi to create easy shots for his teammates, though Kawhi shoulders a chunk of the credit/blame there too. He has not made quick decisions with the ball in his hands.

But that didn’t save Denver in Game 2 because they didn’t finish possessions against Kawhi, hence the “incomplete” tag. The man is inhuman, and has proven that, with healthy legs, he can win series by performing how he did in Game 2, where he shot 15-of-19 from the floor. So Denver has to finish possessions, there is no point in showing help against him if it is indeed just for show (sound on):

Denver shouldn’t fear the possibility of Kawhi putting on a passing clinic by throwing cross-court lasers and manipulating defenders with his eyes. Over his 13 NBA seasons, that’s never been his M.O., and it still isn’t. That’s why LAC stays away from pick-and-roll led by Kawhi, given a near-turnover like this…

Just as important, the Clippers are always playing a poor 3-point shooter. Every single one of Kawhi’s minutes through two games have seen Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., or Ben Simmons on the floor with him, and occasionally two of those guys. Furthermore, any strategy geared toward forcing turnovers and speeding up the Clippers plays to Denver’s advantage.

They recorded the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA this year (PBP Stats) and had, by miles, the lowest 3PA rate. That’s a formula that limits randomness/shooting variance; playing at a slow pace and allowing Kawhi to get up 16 jumpers is not.

The idea of attacking Kawhi is frightening in any context, but in Game 3, Denver just might have to. They’ve thrown a lot his way thus far, but the kitchen sink remains in their back-pocket.

Limiting LAC’s two-man game

Let’s keep it on this end of the floor, where the Harden/Zubac pick-and-roll feasted in Game 1. Harden, looking quite spry, looked to get all the way to the basket, and in the first half, Nikola Jokić often did little more than escort him there…

Since then, Denver has played Jokić much higher up the floor, if not outright trapping or hedging ball-screens. (An awesome, very minor subplot of this series is Harden finding every angle possible to hit Zubac on the roll while Jokić tries to deflect those passes, just about the best hand-eye coordination battle you’ll find.)

The major subplot is what happens once Zu catches the ball, and it feels like both teams have left something on the table here. Zubac can make rudimentary reads quickly enough, and has gotten Kris Dunn a few layups off baseline cuts. However, they’re nobody’s idea of Draymond Green and Gary Payton II. Dunn has struggled to finish under any defensive pressure, and if they can take away his cut, Zubac has struggled to snap to the next read, a kick-out for three. In fact, his best offense has been simply going to work against whoever steps up to meet him.

Harden is key here, too. The more downhill pressure he applies, the deeper Zu’s catch inevitably is, and these two can play pitch-and-catch as well as any tandem…

After that play in Game 2, Jokić played even higher up the floor, and Denver produced the desired effect: Harden largely stopped trying to get downhill, whether by splitting a screen or by attacking Jokic’s outside hip. Can he dial up the pressure in Game 3 if Denver opens in the same coverage?

How much room do Harden, Zubac, and Dunn have to improve from game 2? To me, it’s a reasonable chunk. If Denver feels the same way, they should try to deny Zubac on the roll altogether. In this first play. Michael Porter Jr. helps off of Dunn to deny Zu, and Norm Powell promptly turns the ball over. In the second play, MPJ doesn’t leave DJJ, Zu catches it, and it leads to a wide-open three:

Yes, DJJ is on the strong-side in play #2, but perhaps gambling off him is worth preventing any sort of deep catch for Zubac.

The Harden/Zubac two-man game that so much of LAC’s offense is built around is in a fascinating spot entering Game 3. Each team has reason to adjust; for the Clips it could be setting the screen higher up the floor or making sure a 3-point threat is weak-side corner. Still, “play better” could simply be the adjustment.

If Denver believes the Clippers will indeed play better, they could get funky and put Aaron Gordon on Zubac, Jokić on Dunn, and switch screens. They’ve tried that on a single possessions so far, and it didn’t end well…

They could send more early help to take away Zu’s roll, but they might just feel confident where they’re at. We’ll soon see.

Will Jokić start launching?

As for that infamous two-man game on the other side, the Clippers have done fairly well defending Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokić so far. Kris Dunn deserves the lion’s share of the credit, as he’s been responsible for chasing Murray into tight, mid-range spaces, but then switching back out onto Jokić when he pops, otherwise known as a veer-switch. It looks something like this:

Jokić hands him three points, but this is the coverage the Clippers opened with in Game 1, and, 101 minutes of hoop later, they’re still leaning on it. Though Jokić shot 4-of-8 from deep in Game 2, it felt like he ignored five or six clean looks, many coming on pick-and-pops like this.

There are other ways for the Nuggets to counter this defense from the Clippers. Jokić simply rolling to the basket and posting Dunn or Derrick Jones Jr. has led to some favorable isolations for him. It also leads to confusion for Dunn and Zubac, when/if they actually commit to the late switch.

But the nuclear code Jokić could push at any time is something he’s always reluctant to do, and that’s to just let it fly. This coverage seems like a bet from the Clippers that, even if goaded into it, Jokić will not launch 12-15 threes in a game, even if he’s shooting just under 42% from deep, like he did in the regular season.

Late in Game 1, the Clippers went another route, pressuring Jamal Murray while meeting Jokić early on his catches. Nekias Duncan did a great job explaining how the Nuggets roasted that coverage; essentially, the Clips were spread too thin, unable to prevent open looks for capable if not elite shooters, and even less able to grab rebounds…

Have the Clippers already found their favorite answer to the Murray/Jokić love affair? Perhaps. The more juice you can squeeze out of Kris Dunn’s defense, the better. But this strategy also keeps them in their shell, keeps Zubac near the rim, and limits the opportunities for James Harden and Norm Powell to get caught ball-watching as cutters sneak behind them.

The real danger is that Jokić melts the Intuit Dome with a 3-point barrage on Thursday night. Does he want to?

Where’s the other two-man game?

Let’s end with a couple quick bites. In Game 1, the Nuggets targeted James Harden on defense by consistently involving Aaron Gordon with Nikola Jokić, either in off-ball screens or inverted pick-and-roll. Perhaps it’s Gordon’s limp calf, but rookie head coach David Adelman went to those actions far less in Game 2.

Why? Perhaps because Harden is the Clippers’ worst defender.

Let me explain: Per Cleaning the Glass, the Nuggets turned it over on a whopping 21.7% of their possessions on Monday, their second-worst mark of the season. Jokić had a rough game with seven of them, and frequently, it was Dunn, Nic Batum, or Kawhi jumping his passing lanes. In other words, the further L.A.’s best defenders were from the ball, the more havoc they wreaked.

The same could not be said of Harden and Powell, who did not provide much help in rotation:

So, with Harden on Gordon, is that why we didn’t see much of Denver’s front-court chemistry in Game 2, or was it an injury? Either way, the Nuggets have to get back to that two-man game, and find Gordon some easy rolls to the rim. The team that shot the highest percentage in the league on shots at the rim (Cleaning the Glass) is shooting just 57% at the rim through two games, which would have ranked as the worst mark in the NBA by light years.

I may know an all-time dunker that can help with that.

Please, Norm

The Clippers will not win this series if Norm Powell and Bogdan Bogdanović continue to struggle so mightily. However, Powell not only hit some huge shots late in the second half on Monday, but was the recipient of an (unscripted) play that stuck in my mind…

It was a rare instance of Norm directly benefiting from the attention his co-stars get, rather than simply trying to emulate them by creating from a stand-still. Even if Jokić isn’t in much drop coverage, the concept still works, getting Norm the ball on the second side with the defense ever-so-slightly out of whack.

There are many more wrinkles to this matchup we could discuss. (Please go look up Kris Dunn’s defensive highlights from this series.) Tyronn Lue has not remotely settled on a substitution pattern, and in Game 2 Ben Simmons was the game’s first sub. Harden also played a chunk of minutes without Kawhi or Zubac, which felt off at the time. The Nuggets are battling injury and fatigue across the board, and seem unsure whether to devote much energy to getting Michael Porter Jr. going.

No matter which of these storylines takes center stage in Game 3 and beyond, we do know that this series has been, and will continue to be awesome.

Prediction: Clippers in 6

The post Round One: Nuggets vs. Clippers appeared first on Swish Theory.

Those Rocket squads were potent, and they got close. Closer than anyone else got to beating a healthy KD-Steph Warriors team. But the results are the results, and Steph and Co. effectively broke the team up. Much has changed for both squads since then. But as the adage goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six years later, we are back.

Now, Steph, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney are the only holdouts from those 2010s slugfests. It’s a brand new matchup with brand new intrigue. I dug into the film of the past two matchups (post-Jimmy Butler acquisition) to explore the game plans from a Warriors and Rockets perspective. I’ll take my best stab at guessing what can tilt this matchup and what tactics we might see.

Sengun Matchups

There are a lot of interesting matchup questions concerning Alperen Sengun. Houston’s 22-year-old offensive focal point poses interesting questions for these small-ball Warriors on both ends. How Golden State covers and contains him on offense is one of the foremost questions here. One of their main tactics so far has been doubling him off the ball early or sending immediate help on his lethal post spin move.

Forcing Houston’s less capable offensive players to beat them off the double teams is key. The Warriors are comfortable in rotation, and timely, effective doubles will go a long way towards kneecapping their halfcourt offense.

What interests me more is how Rockets coach Ime Udoka deploys Sengun on defense. In their small-ball alignments, Draymond Green is the de facto center. But given how often he runs action with Steph Curry, Houston tries to hide him on less frequent screen partners. That has produced varying results, most often bad for Houston’s defense.

The Gary Payton II matchup was a pressure point for Golden State in the last matchup. He’s an effective screener and roller in addition to the corner shooting. If Sengun is stationed on GP2, expect a ton of ball screens called for by Steph or Jimmy Butler. When running the double big lineup with Steven Adams, Sengun was more often positioned on shooters, and his poor closeout speed creates open shots off the drive. Who Sengun covers and whether or not Golden State can take advantage is a major swing point in the series.

Small-Ball Rebounding

This is another huuuuge swing point. The Rockets had a 96th percentile offensive rebounding rate, and it gets even wilder when they run Steven Adams-Alperen Sengun lineups. Per Cleaning the Glass, lineups with those two rebounded 50.3% of their misses while allowing a paltry 17% offensive rebounding rate. Both marks are #1 for any two-man lineup combination. Go back to any of these games, and you can see instances of Rockets big men bullying the small-ball Dubs on the glass.

Lineup-wise, it’s going to be a big Kevon Looney series. One of the best defensive rebounders in the league, he will have to go crazy on the glass when in the game. The Loondog played 37 total minutes in the last two matchups and gobbled up 20 total rebounds. They’ll need that kind of performance to survive. On top of that, they’ll need rebounding effort from the small-ball units. Draymond needs to box out hard, Jimmy needs to pitch in all over the glass, and the perimeter guys need to crash hard. It limits their transition chances, but Golden State cannot afford to give Houston second and third chances regularly. It’s a sacrifice they have to make.

Golden State managed to win the offensive rebounding battle in the last contest, but lost it considerably in the first. In both instances, they lost the putback points per possession by a wide margin. Considering Houston’s putrid halfcourt offensive ratings of 68 and 82.1 points per 100 in the two matchups, more chances are their best shot to keep in the race.

Steph-Jimmy Off Ball Screens

This was perhaps the most dangerous action Golden State ran against Houston. It worked like a charm for Jimmy as Houston sold out to contain Steph’s off-ball production. Split action, wide pindown, it all works to get Jimmy downhill for rim looks and free throws.

The fouls Jimmy draws, and who he draws them on, will be a major swing factor in the series. These off-ball actions will create a lot of free throw attempts and put Houston players in foul trouble if run correctly. Keep an eye on Golden State running these actions when the halfcourt offense dries up and they require momentum.

Attacking Jalen Green

Perhaps no tactic stood out to me more in the last matchup. Whenever Jalen Green was on the floor, Golden State ran off-ball actions on his man, forcing him to move and communicate. Or they just attacked him outright on the ball. It was their most consistent source of offense in the April 6th game and kept them in it on a night where Steph Curry didn’t have it.

Houston can’t afford to limit Jalen’s minutes. He’s crucial to their offense as one of two players who can consistently self-create in the halfcourt. That means tons of opportunities to test his mettle on the other end. In just about any lineup Houston deploys, he will be the worst defender on the court, and coach Steve Kerr will surely beat off-ball actions on Jalen to death.

Fred VanVleet PNR

Take a breath, Warriors fans. I know seeing that name is traumatizing.

Luckily, this isn’t the FVV of old. The dad strength is gone, and this season was the worst offensive performance for the 31-year-old since his rookie year. He posted a career-low in usage rate while his points per 100 shot attempts and assist rates were the lowest since that rookie year. But he still plays an important role in this offense due to his pick-and-roll usage.

Per Synergy sports, FVV was a 97th percentile pick-and-roll usage player with 50th percentile efficiency. Middling efficiency isn’t a concern on most teams, but on a Houston team that is feeble in the halfcourt, anyone with high usage and average results is a point of concern. A lot of icing is the answer, forcing the ball out of his hands to trap the roller or force kickouts to less capable players.

Golden State has the athletes and the discipline to properly ice him out. The question becomes, can the Rockets’ role players make the Warriors pay for the aggressive coverage? Or will they stonewall the pick-and-roll enough to keep this halfcourt offense in the dumps?

Rockets Transition

Nothing better exemplifies the gap in athleticism between these teams than the transition game. When these Rockets get out and running, this aged and slow Warriors team has little chance to stop them.

I think Golden State did an okay job containing the Rockets in transition off of rebounds, especially when Draymond was out there. Off of turnovers, they had no chance, and it swung the result in the two matchups. The Warriors only turned it over 11 times in the first matchup and won. They coughed it up 20 times in the second matchup and lost. All of those above baskets came in transition. If they’re giving the ball away more than 15 times per game, Houston’s athletes will get out and run, and Golden State will be in huge trouble.

Dillon Brooks Offense

Rightfully so, Golden State fans point to Dillon Brooks’ 24-point performance in the last game as an outlier. His 10-of-13 shooting night is not likely to be repeated. What interests me is that Houston made it a point of emphasis to get him involved in that game and was rewarded for it.

When he was guarded by Steph and Buddy Hield, they had Dillon go after him early and often. Golden State is content to put their defensive weak links on him for two reasons. One, he is rarely involved in screening actions. Two, the guy just can’t dribble. And when he does make shots, he immediately heat checks like he’s prime Steph. For better or worse, the Warriors will live and die by letting Dillon take his shots. It bears watching if Houston will try to get him going early in these games.

Jimmy Butler Drives

Other than Steph running in circles, this is Golden State’s best source of offense. They’ll need a tough-nosed driver to get the defense in motion or create points in isolation. Playoff Jimmy is extremely capable of creating off the drive regardless of who is defending him.

On top of the shots it generates for himself and others, it’s going to draw a ton of fouls. Getting switches on their best offensive players like Jalen or FVV creates issues, or getting into the body of Sengun. He’s also unafraid of Dillon, Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson. Any fouls he can draw on their stalwart defensive options can go a long way in this series. Expect the Warriors to live and die by Playoff Jimmy’s offense.

The Amen Problem

I think of all the Rockets players, nobody creates more all-around issues than Amen Thompson. His exceptional defense, transition offense, and half-court versatility all pose issues. Those were on display in the last matchup as he was arguably their best player.

They’ll need to limit his transition chances, work hard to get him off Steph, and send bodies in the halfcourt when he gets downhill. Force him to pass, or he will dunk it on your head. Thompson’s level of impact on this series has the most swing potential of any player to me, and he will be a point of focus for both coaching staffs.

Jonathan Kuminga?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Warriors fans online are being irrational about a young player. Kuminga was benched outright for the last two games. With playoff stakes, coach Steve Kerr opted to make the fourth-year forward ride the pine. Luckily for Kuminga, this Rockets matchup may be how he gets back on the court. His athleticism is sorely needed, and he presents an interesting screening/ballhandling option against an offense that usually sits in deep drop or blitzes hard.

I’d expect Kerr to give Kuminga some run and see if he can impact the offense. Given Houston’s offensive issues, his lack of awareness off the ball becomes less of a problem. If he can contain ballhandlers and rebound well in addition to offensive utility, perhaps he can swing things in Golden State’s favor.

Odds and Ends

I could go on and on about the swing factors and tactics in this series. Will Quinten Post play minutes to space the floor and affect the glass? Will the Rockets’ defenders, namely Dillon Brooks, be allowed to grab and hit Steph with impunity like the last matchup? Can Tari Eason make an offensive impact while being wide open? What kind of impact can Moses Moody make on both ends? Will Ime Udoka once again be extremely annoying?

This is going to be a real race to 100 kind of series. Both teams have elite half-court defenses and major offensive questions. For me, the difference is the high-end star power and playoff scoring experience on Golden State’s side. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler know how to get things done in this kind of environment. Memphis just found that out the hard way.

Houston will have to limit those two in addition to crushing the Dubs on the glass and in transition to pull this one out. The Warriors can afford to slightly lose those battles if the halfcourt defense holds up and one or both of Jimmy and Steph can get going on a given night. I think this ends with yet another Golden State victory over Houston and a severe dose of psychic trauma inflicted on Rockets fans yet again. Get ready for the slug fest.

The post Warriors vs. Rockets: Key Matchups and Tactics appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stephen Curry vs LeBron James. A rivalry that defines this generation of the NBA will potentially have its last dance and like the infamous football/soccer coach, Pep Guardiola, once said—”we will be there” (not actually there because the prices for these games are already off the charts but anyways).

This should be an electric series between two teams that have had their share of ups and downs and are coming in hot with a chip on their shoulder. But enough with the talking, let’s dive into what this all will look like on the court.

Matchups

For Los Angeles:

• Austin Reaves on Stephen Curry
• D’Angelo Russell on Klay Thompson
• Jarred Vanderbilt on Andrew Wiggins
• LeBron James on Draymond Green
• Anthony Davis on Kevon Looney

For Golden State:

• Klay Thompson on D’Angelo Russell
• Stephen Curry on Austin Reaves
• Draymond Green on Jarred Vanderbilt
• Andrew Wiggins on LeBron James
• Kevon Looney on Anthony Davis

Starting with LA, the talk around the matchup is the “who guards Steph?” problem, and out of that first group, I trust Austin Reaves to be the guy. Per BBall Index, Reaves graded out as an A- in Off-Ball Chaser Defense and in Ball Screen Navigation, two very key skills you need to have defensively if you want to take on the task that is Stephen Curry. 

There has been talk from media and fans about Davis potentially guarding Draymond and LeBron guarding Looney which I can see, but to start the series I think Darvin Ham will go with a vanilla approach and not get too cute just yet. Looney is involved in a lot of Golden State’s actions, just like Draymond, and I think AD could split time between the two while still having the same impact defensively. 

For Golden State, I think the key here is Draymond on Vanderbilt. In the regular season matchups, Draymond showed little to no respect to Vanderbilt when he was “guarding” him and at times spent whole possessions heavily shadowing Anthony Davis who was primarily guarded by Looney. With Green roaming to help on Davis, this could cause trouble for LA in terms of Vanderbilt’s usage offensively and the spacing problems that could pursue from that matchup.

Stopping Steph?

In the famous words of the legendary Kevin Harlan, “You can not stop him, you can only hope to contain him!”

Long answer: stopping Steph is a proposition that many teams have tried and have failed in doing so. Do you go all out in stopping him or do you let him cook while you try and shut off Golden State’s other avenues to score? I think the Lakers will lean heavily toward the latter.

The Lakers and Warriors played in three games after the trade deadline with LA’s new cast and they defended Golden State the same way every single time. Putting a heavy emphasis on gapping the Warriors’ poor/non-shooters—Green, Looney, Kuminga, JaMychal Green to some extent, and I would assume Gary Payton II to be in this group although he didn’t play in these matchups—to cut off passing angles and for the Warriors free-flowing, spaced out offense.

And although Kuminga made that three, you’d much rather him taking threes than Steph, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, or Divincenzo getting threes or layups like how they usually do in their offense. This gap defense can disrupt how Golden State normally attacks and it will be on them to counter. The guards guarding the shooters running around will also have to top-lock (when a defender stands between the screener and the person you’re guarding) to deny easy handoffs and if the guards cut, they’ll cut right into Anthony Davis or LeBron James. With off-ball chasers like Reaves, Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown Jr., and even D’Angelo Russell who is really solid in this role when locked in, LA has the personnel to execute this defense fairly well. 

But we still haven’t answered the proposed question of stopping or even containing Steph. The best way to contain him while also containing their offense as a whole would be—prepare yourselves—drop coverage. 

But no, not that drop coverage with the big man sinking all the way in the paint and daring the ballhandler to hit pull-up jumpers. It’s Steph Curry. I’m recommending a higher variation of drop where the ballhandler’s defender still goes over the screen, but the big man is much higher, usually anywhere from the free throw line out to the 3-point line. 

Just like the other scheme against Golden State, the Lakers ran this during all three of those meetups post-deadline and it worked to a tee.

Now of course this isn’t the ultimate cheat code defense that will hold Steph to 20 points per game on bad efficiency. Steph will still get his because of his greatness but you have to play the long game with this defense and focus on the process of “how hard of looks are they getting?” vs the results of whether or not the ball is going in for them. 

With the greatness that is Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, nothing seems too farfetched as he is the key to this defensive strategy and is one of the few guys in the league that could actually execute it. We are asking him to be our main rim protector while also being fairly high on Steph where he can contest and maybe even block a couple 3s. It will be a tough task for The Brow but I honestly believe there is nobody in the league I’d rather have for this gameplan.

Answers for AD?

Speaking of AD, the Warriors will have to navigate how they deal with him while they’re on defense as well. In the latest matchup between the two teams, Davis detonated for 39 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocks on 64% True Shooting while hitting a mean dagger post shot over the lauded defender, Draymond Green. 

Davis presents a harder challenge for the Warriors than what they dealt with in the first round with Domantas Sabonis. Draymond and Looney were able to sag off of Sabonis and give him a great amount of space since Sabonis isn’t really comfortable as a scorer if he’s right near the rim for a layup. That meant post shots, floaters, midranges, and threes were off the table and were a complete non-factor for Sabonis as Draymond and Looney camped under the rim. 

You simply can not do that against Anthony Davis. 

AD is more of a finesse and quickness big with real touch and is perfectly fine with living in the post hook/floater range if need be. A primary attack I’d like LA to go with in terms of getting AD going would be to get him flowing off of movement so that he can attack the foot speed of Looney, in particular, but even Draymond as well. We saw the Lakers go to this way of attacking for that last matchup where Davis dropped a near 40-piece, running a lot of 5-out delay sets and setting pindown screens for AD for him to attack Looney. 

This isn’t the only way though, Davis will kill any 1-on-1 matchups in the post if you don’t send some type of help. AD actually had a very uncharacteristic post-up efficiency series against the Grizzlies where he got his typical looks that he makes most of the time, but just missed them. I would have to expect that those shots are bound to fall eventually and I think this can be the series where that happens. 

On top of AD being a hell of a mismatch on the ground, the Warriors can not match his verticality either. The tallest player the Warriors play in their rotation is Kevon Looney who is 6-9 but very floor bound. This is a complete contrast to what Davis had to deal with last round with the 6-11 terror Jaren Jackson Jr. who could match AD’s size and even still he had a very rough time guarding him. 

Because of all this, I’m expecting the Warriors to commit a ton of attention and help toward Davis’ way. Although they seem very locked in on not letting him get free Pick-and-Roll lobs and layups, they do not seem as disciplined in their post defense whereas Memphis very much was and it could’ve been one of the factors that kept AD’s efficiency for the series way lower than what we expect from him. Think this could potentially unlock some of AD’s passing too as he will have to make some pretty solid reads in order to counter the help they will send his way. The Warriors will make it tough for AD but this isn’t anything he hasn’t seen before and I think he just completed the test against a tougher Memphis matchup for him offensively. 

X-Factors

For Los Angeles

• LeBron James and Anthony Davis
• Lakers guards

Outside of Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, the stars for LA were pretty average in the 1st round matchup against Memphis. I think there is a world where Davis could have the same or even a bigger impact than Curry in this series and the Lakers will need that type of production from their superstar to win this one. With LeBron tending to his lingering foot issue, I’m just unsure of what he will bring to the series on the offensive end. Will he be the on-ball engine like we’ve seen throughout the previous 19 years of his career or again will he be this off-ball cog in the machine? And if he continues to be off-ball which is fine by me, he’ll have to be able to shoot threes at a respectable clip which he did not against Memphis.

LA’s guards again will have a big impact on this series. Austin Reaves is pretty much the only guard in the Lakers rotation that consistently produces and you don’t have to worry about him on the offensive side of the ball really. But D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and possibly Malik Beasley and/or Troy Brown Jr. could all play huge swing factor roles on the offensive side of the ball. Not sure how it looks in the stats, but just from a feel perspective, it seems like when D’Angelo Russell has a good game, the Lakers have a 90% chance of winning. I think he will be a little bit more looser than he was in the Memphis series with him not having to deal with as much physicality. The Lakers will be depending on Schröder’s defense so that’s why he is an x-factor but if Beasley or Brown Jr. could just start hitting shots, it could go a long way. Those two combined to shoot 6-for-30 (a whopping 20%) from three in the Memphis series so just them hitting shots could swing the series in LA’s favor.

For Golden State

• Draymond Green
• Klay Thompson/Andrew Wiggins

Draymond Green’s offensive ability will be tested in this series. Just like how the Warriors tested Sabonis’ ability in the first round. He will have to have the mindset of being aggressive on offense and not minding being a scorer which he’s shown he can have at times—Game 5 vs Sacramento—but can he do it efficiently and consistently? That is the real question and should be answered throughout the series.

On top of Klay and Wiggins just having to hit shots, they may be relied upon to create and provide some offense that may be more than usual for them. I think Golden State will look for mismatches on these two when they can and try to get them post looks which will be helpful. But after both had a pretty average first-round series on the offensive side of the ball, their number could be called a lot more vs Los Angeles.

Prediction Time

Lakers in 7.

I believe this will be a long, hard-fought series that will end with the Lakers coming out victorious. Whether it’s six and they win at Crypto.com Arena or seven away on the road, I think the Lakers are coming into this one with the tactical advantage over the Warriors and will try to impose their strength and size against a small-ball Warriors team. LA will be forceful in trying to establish their paint presence just from points in the paint but also on the free throw line where they drew the second most fouls per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Warriors committed the third-most personal fouls per game, so the whistle should play a factor and be in LA’s favor just based off of playstyle.

Either way, I simply cannot wait to enjoy this series to the fullest and live through what may be the last chapter of LeBron vs Steph. Two legends that had their hand in reshaping the game into the way it is now and I’ll forever be appreciative towards them for that. But again, enough with all the talking man—let’s hoop!

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There has not since been a men’s college basketball team as electrifying as their 2016-17 Wildcats, also featuring Bam Adebayo. Thanks to Fox and Monk sprinting the ball up the floor on every possession, UK played at a breakneck pace that thrust some classic battles upon us. Lonzo Ball went into Rupp Arena, amidst all the Ball v. Fox hype of the 2017 NBA draft cycle, and shushed the crowd in a 97-92 UCLA win. Three months later, Fox hung 39 on his head to knock UCLA out of the NCAA Tournament. There was also the time Monk dropped 47(!) on UNC in a 103-100(!!) win in late December. Yet, three months later, Luke Maye got it back in blood, hitting his famous buzzer beater to send Kentucky home in an Elite 8 all-timer.

Fox sat in the locker room after that loss, hugging Adebayo and sobbing during an interview. That intimate moment, where Fox continually repeats how much he loves his guys, is one of the more touching moments college basketball has produced, for me, and emblematic of what made that Kentucky team so magnetic. Monk punched air and screamed after every big play, whether by him or a teammate. Fox, whose competitiveness was a tad more reserved, showing up in ways like guarding Ball full-court in their matchups, would only join Monk in outward celebration during their most euphoric moments. The many that argued that college basketball was losing its soul in a one-and-done era nearing the creation of NIL clearly weren’t watching Fox and Monk at Kentucky.

The reunion of De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk in Sacramento isn’t just one of this postseason’s best storylines because it feels nice, though. They’re hooping. The same two hair-raising athletes that arrived in Kentucky when Kevin Durant arrived in Golden State are now looking to drive a stake through the heart of a basketball dynasty. You grow up fast.

The league’s best regular season offense has an ORTG of only 111.9 over their first four games against the Warriors, just a 40th percentile mark. However, when Fox and Monk share the court, that number balloons to 121.7 without much defensive slippage. (Monk in particular has some ridiculous on/off splits, SAC’s offense has been 18 points/100 better with him. 18!)  Overall, Fox/Monk lineups have played just fewer than half of this series’ possessions, but are out-scoring the Dubs by nearly nine points/100. 

Some of this is due to the non-Monk Kings, particularly Kevin Huerter and Harrison Barnes, missing just about every 3-pointer they take. But Monk’s only shooting a mediocre 35% from deep against the Dubs himself. In a beautiful, full-circle moment, the questions Fox and Monk have answered from their Kentucky days has turned them into a dynamic, complementary backcourt, one that Sacramento is depending on.

Monk has always been an explosive athlete with outside shooting touch, the question for him was if he could turn those skills into halfcourt creation reps. The perennial demand of his archetype: Can he slow down and incorporate some craft into his game? The answer, clearly, is yes.

The fun part about Monk’s growth as a creator is not that he’s overhauled his offensive game, rather the opposite. By playing with varied pace and then refining the details of that pace – screen usage as a guard, eye manipulation, etc. – Monk allows his athleticism and touch to shine, and now we’re wowed again.

The screen usage, specifically, is popping vs. Golden State. At this rate, there may not be a more feared screen rejector in the league by the start of next season. Monk has seemingly rejected as many ball-screens as he’s actually, you know, used in this series, but the results have been fantastic.

Fantastic…and fun! Cross-spin, pound-cross, killer cross, Monk is cooking the only way he knows how. Yet, as those clips evidence, Golden State can’t throw their best perimeter defender on the court, whoever that may be at the time, on him. Why? Well, that guy has to worry about De’Aaron Fox.

Fox always did and still does face questions as an outside shooter, and therefore, an off-ball player. But his 32% mark from deep on the year belies the quality of shooter he’s really turned into. Forget the Game 2 dagger to give the Kings a late, insurmountable 107-101 after being 1-9 from deep up to that point. How about standing up to a vintage Steph Curry bomb with a catch-and-shoot off of, of course, a Monk drive-and-kick:

Fox and Monk are now largely interchangeable, or at least capable, as offensive creators and spacers. Late in the first quarter of Game 4, Andrew Wiggins was guarding Fox, forcing Moses Moody to knuckle up and stay in front of Monk. He, somewhat predictably, could not avoid the inevitability of Monk successfully rejecting a screen. Meanwhile, on the weak side, Fox slyly lifted from the corner to the wing, creating a more open but more functionally difficult pass for Monk to make off of his drive. He made it anyway:

Fox and Monk have each done the work to make this backcourt work once again, this time in an NBA setting, six years later, without even knowing it. This is, after all, Monk’s first season in SacTown, and each of their first playoff appearances. Not only have they covered the holes in their games, but they’ve covered each other too, allowing for more classic Fox and Monk magic.

With the ex-Wildcats, the Kings can push the ball up court with either one, just like we saw at Kentucky. Having two speedy ball-handlers on the court, rather than just one release valve, makes a world of difference for Sacramento.

• Transition points/100, total: 106.6
• Transition points/100 (Fox/Monk minutes): 126.7

In transition, the fellas play the classics. Here, Fox sprints the ball up court, even after the Kings have to take the ball out of the net. No problem. He collapses the defense severely on his jaunt toward the paint, and the Warriors are out of whack immediately in the possession, to the point where nobody notices Monk relocating along the perimeter. Well, nobody besides Fox:

This isn’t (just) small sample size theatrics, or a case of streaky shooting from Monk. He and his point-guard-for-life have developed into such a cohesive backcourt that they are not only working on an NBA floor, a thought that would’ve brought a tear to my eye six years ago, but they might be Sacramento’s best answer for the defending champions. Of course, things aren’t all rosy in the City of Trees. Fox, in a monumental Game 5, plans on playing through an avulsion fracture in his dominant index finger. Monk, for all his chaotic brilliance in this series to date, dipped into some poor, old habits late in Game 4 by being a little overzealous early in the shot-clock and kamikaze-ing Kings possessions. Head Coach Mike Brown alluded to it in his post-game presser after Game 4, saying his guys were “driving into two, sometimes three guys, in transition and begging for a call, and we can’t continue to do that.”

Regardless, what Fox and Monk are doing in Sacramento must be appreciated, even if their season may be as little as two days away from over. Their Kentucky days, which will live on in highlights and quick winks to the real NBA fans for knowing they existed, were so much more than just that. Their Sacramento days are becoming the perfect epilogue to that era. As basketball players, their improvements have made this pairing possible once again; their current synergy is deeper than it was, improved in the ways that every 19-year-old hopes to improve in by the time they’re 25. They can no longer be pigeon-holed, limited to specific functions; their relationship is fuller, more complex and meaningful because of it. Kings basketball has been dripping in that incalculable ‘something special’ all season long, and for it, they owe a big thank you to De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. As basketball fans, so do we.

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Conference Semifinals

East Round 2, Series 1: Team Gannon vs. Team Josh A.

#1 Seed – Team Gannon

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Porter (aka TrillBro)’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Gannon 3

First off. These teams are built extremely well around their star players. I love that the Harden team is filled with switchable defenders who all can either spot up or create their own shot in a pinch. If this team were built around peak James Harden (2017-2020) I think it would be virtually unstoppable. Also thank you for giving me some PTSD from previous Sixers playoff series – mainly the old Celtics series – where an Embiid team has to matchup with a wing heavy two way team that can cause him nightmares. This team is certainly more balanced if you are looking to build a two way force in a playoff setting. Defensively this team would be a nightmare to score against – especially if Evan Mobley is able to stay out of foul trouble – but their main weakness to me is that they would not be able to apply the rim pressure that a prime Harden team would provide. 

As a Sixers fan .. the Embiid team is also a dream. While they might have some limited two way players (DFS on offense, Garland on defense) they all fit around Embiid like a glove and really build on his strengths. Garland is the exact kind of guard that will thrive with Embiid. He can run actions in the pick and roll to get Embiid the ball in his spots, he also can thrive off the ball running DHOs with Embiid or spotting up when Embiid has the ball in the post. As a vertical spacer and rebounder, Robert Williams provides the exact dunker spot threat that the Sixers are currently missing. DFS in the corners is also money. While this team might be exposed in drop coverage if you can involve Garland and Embiid in actions on the perimeter you would have four elite team defenders in the starting lineup (and two other rim protectors) that could make up for this weakness. Offensively I could see this team becoming a bit stagnant if Garland and Embiid’s shots are not falling but Embiid will living at the line, while also putting Evan Mobley deep in foul trouble early and often, and Garland’s playmaking and shot making combination should be enough to carry the load 

Ultimately this comes down to what do you want more? A team with a true superstar that has or a team with more two way versatility and shooting at every position. Maybe I am biased as a Sixers fan here but I think that Joel Embiid is the best player in the series by a fairly wide margin – and while he has had some playoff shortcomings in the past – this is the best version of him and this team would be a nearly perfect combination of star power and role players to highlight his strengths. Offensively I believe this gives them a massive advantage over any team that does not a surefire number one option.Mikal Bridges recent star leap is an interesting wrinkle but against a great playoff defense I am not sure if we can expect him to provide the same level of production that he has provided over the last 25-30 games as the number option in Brooklyn. If you could rewind Harden by 3-5 years when he provided more rim pressure or even fast forward Evan Mobley 3 years when he will be stronger for the Embiid matchup (not that one person can stop Embiid but you need to have a baseline level of strength) and more developed offensively, this series would probably swing in the other direction. 

East Round 2, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Will

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Ian Levy Decision: Team Will 4, Team Oscar 2

Team Oscar has a lot of advantages on the perimeter and homecourt advantage implies that they’re coming into this series as the higher seed and favorite. But I think Giannis would present a unique challenge (as he does in the real world, with literally every team), even if Grant Williams has historically done a decent job on him. 

With Team Will basically replicating Milwaukee’s formidable defensive frontcourt, I think they can handle the multiple creators on Team Oscar, and happily live with a lot of contested mid-range jumpers from Butler and Brown. I also imagine Team Will would have a fairly significant edge on the glass, which would be a meaningful advantage at both ends.

I don’t think this is a blowout series, I think there are a lot of close games. But Team Will’s defense holding up and Giannis manifesting his will around the basket is the difference.

West Round 2, Series 1: Team Sajdak vs. Team Tyler

#1 Seed – Team Sajdak

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent. 

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

vs. #4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

Todd Whitehead’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Sajdak 1

Team Sajdak looks a lot like last year’s Memphis Grizzlies team, just with absolutely none of the vibes. Imagine if the 2022 NBA Executive of the Year, Zach Kleiman, decided to orchestrate a multi-team deal that cut ties with Memphis’ beloved, homegrown core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Brandon Clarke in exchange for the obviously talented but sometimes prickly trio of Irving, Towns, and Hardaway and then, as the playoffs were getting started, he decided to just rip out whatever was left of the heart of his team by handing over Brooks and Adams to his opponent, totally gratis. That’s basically what this series is! 

I have an app that takes a hypothetical 5-man lineup and tries to spit out the real NBA lineups that look most similar to it. I fed it the proposed lineup of Irving, Hardaway, Anderson, Jackson, and Towns and it started smoking and the message it returned just said “FUNKY”. The simple fact is that there are not a lot of frontcourts that look as #funky and #weird as this one. Interestingly, there are several current and former teammate pairs in this series and Anderson has played real-life minutes with both Jackson and Towns. But could all three of them work together? In the previous two seasons in Memphis, Anderson rarely shared the court with Jackson and the minutes those two played alongside another big (Adams, Clarke, or Jonas Valanciunas) were net negative. Likewise, the trio of Anderson, Towns, and Gobert have rarely played at the same time this season in Minnesota, and the minutes they have shared have been a minus. Of course, the dual-stretchiness of Towns and Jackson would add a different dimension to this frontcourt which wasn’t available in Memphis or Minnesota, so maybe the spacing would be fine, but I remain a little skeptical.

Team Tyler, on the other hand, is like a Frankenstein monster of pieces of the best teams in the West. We know, empirically, that these players can (and do) pair nicely together: lineups with Durant and Paul are +15 points per 100 possessions in Phoenix this season, Murray and Gordon are +12 in Denver, and Brooks and Adams are +11 in Memphis. Moreover, Durant, Paul, and Murray have all proven in recent years that they can thrive as both primary or complementary options on offense. Over their last three healthy seasons, each of these stars has taken at least 200 spot-up threes, making 45, 41, and 43% of them, respectively. Toss in DiVincenzo – who has made 42% of his own 299 spot-up threes over the last three years – and Team Tyler is going to have plenty of ways to stretch opposing defenses. They will be able to attack with multiple weapons and should be able to do more than just “take turns” trying to score.

In terms of matchups, I don’t see any real issues for Team Tyler. Stevens can hold his own on Towns, Gordon can guard Jackson, Durant can matchup with Anderson and take some liberties in helping out around the rim, Murray can be stashed on Hardaway, and Paul should give Irving a stiff challenge. Having the ability to mix in Brooks or DiVincenzo is a nice bonus, allowing Team Tyler to throw a different look at any shooters from Team Sajdak who happen to get hot. On the flip side, I’d say the biggest question marks will be – who is Irving going to guard from Team Tyler? And can Slo Mo slow down KD enough to keep it interesting? In my opinion, Team Tyler rolls. 

West Round 2, Series 2: Team Neema vs. Team Corban

#2. Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #6. Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Joe Viray’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Corban 3

This was a pretty difficult decision for me because I think both teams have extremely viable arguments for winning a series against each other. On one hand, Team Neema has, in my opinion, the perfect combination of defensive versatility and offensive juice to power through just about any team that’s put in front of it. On the other hand, Team Corban has what Luka Doncic has always needed: shooters, and not just the league-average kind – I mean, bona fide SHOOTERS. Coupled with just enough defensive help, it can also power through almost any team you put in front of it.

However, what makes me choose Team Neema in a close series win is how perfectly built it is to take advantage of it’s one main strength: pace. In order to beat teams with pace, you need to catch opposing defenses on the back foot constantly. How do you do that? You make sure not to take the ball out of the basket as much as possible – and you do that with tough, hard-nosed defense, which this team has in spades. Compared to Team Corban, Team Neema also has much more rebounding talent, which will be important for them to immediately trigger the break. Ja Morant is the perfect point guard to play such an uptempo style. The wing trio of Wiggins, Porter, and Edwards is a unique blend of length, wing defense, and a powder keg that can provide explosive offense. Gary Payton II is an absolute hound and can make life difficult for any opposing ball handler. Looney and Clarke provide the hustle on the boards.

Ultimately, I think Team Neema may be a bit too much for Team Corban and its lack of athleticism beyond Jonathan Kuminga and lack of rim protection/deterrence beyond Draymond Green. Relentless rim pressure, dogged defense, and constant uptempo basketball will tire Team Corban out, especially Luka, who thrives in the deliberate nature of the half-court game but may be forced to sprint constantly against such an athletic team. Which is why I think Team Corban will eventually run out of gas as the series progresses. Team Neema takes it all the way.

Eastern Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Larro vs. Team Josh A.

#4 Seed – Team Larro

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love

vs. #5 Seed – Team Josh A.

The Pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

Steph Noh’s Decision: Team Josh 4, Team Larro 2

Team Josh A. is going to take this one down in 6 games. The NBA is a star-driven league. As good as Donovan Mitchell has been, Joel Embiid is a tier above him. Embiid is going to be able to carry Team Josh A. in this matchup. 

In fairness to Team Larro, Embiid has struggled against the Cavs this season. Struggling for him though is still scoring 28 per game on 60 percent true shooting. And while Team Larro has Jarrett Allen, a great defender, to put on Embiid, Embiid is going to eat Kevin Love alive in the minutes where Allen sits. 

Team Larro also has Darius Garland, who has had one of the more underrated seasons in the league and been overshadowed by Mitchell’s superb year. Garland can help spread the floor for Embiid and set the big man up with his great court vision. 

Mitchell is liable to go off for a big number in this game. He’s averaged 37.5 points per game across four contests with the Celtics this season. But the spacing on that team is going to be iffy, with Smart and Crowder both streaky shooters and Jarrett Allen a non-shooter. Love and Grayson Allen could help alleviate some of those spacing issues, but Love is going to be tough to play in this series because of that Garland-Embiid pick-and-roll.

Round 1, Series 2: Team Oscar vs. Team Josh U.

#3 Seed – Team Oscar

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams

vs. #6 Seed – Josh U.

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

Samson Folk’s Decision: Team Oscar 4, Team Josh U. 2

So, my initial lean is that Team Oscar wins in 6 games. Tatum is the best player here, no doubt, but I do think that Team Josh U.’s offense could be greatly affected by an aggressive gameplan to overload on him. Grimes, Brogdon, Herro, all impressive players in their own right, and with Herro obviously being able to scale up as a primary creator for stretches. Blitz Tatum, and I’m fairly confident that over the course of the series that Team Oscar will be able to delete the dangerous areas on the floor and zone up the big areas often enough to move them into the deep shot clock. For posterity, I’m assuming that the talent on top teams has flattened out because of a fantasy draft, but I also think that Team 1 will be more limited in their offensive counters than Team 2 will be. 

Obviously Brown has some off-ball defense warts, but I think you can have a lot of fun by using him as Tatum’s primary defender. I also think that Team Oscar eventually swaps Williams and Harris – to a positive effect. 

I think Team Josh U. is going to have a Maxey problem. He can easily work off of either of Butler or Brown, and when it comes to punching gaps afforded by his fellow stars, Maxey can be the elite play finisher at all 3 levels and he can make progressive passing reads out of them. With Butler and Brown ready to collapse the defense at any point in time, that’s good eating. Butler is also uniquely gifted among wings when it comes to creating for bigs, and I think that creates the potential for a couple big games from Robinson. 

Considering how much switching would go on in this series, and the mobility on both sides, this series would probably be extremely fun to watch.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Pow vs. Team Will

#2 Seed – Team Pow

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

vs. #7 Seed – Team Will

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

Rob Schaefer Decision: Team Will 4, Team Pow 2

I landed on six games because this would be a highly-competitive matchup, but when picking an upset, it’s always more likely the underdog will close it out on their home floor.

As for the reasons for leaning towards Team 2: I certainly see the specter of a highly versatile defense with Bam Adebayo and Al Horford in the frontcourt and Jrue Holiday the head of the snake on the perimeter. And the isolation shot creation up and down the rotation is intriguing in close games.

What concerns me is Team 1’s offensive upside. Holiday and Quickley’s pull-up shooting could certainly foil what I imagine will be a drop-heavy scheme between Antetokounmpo, Lopez and Portis. But over the course of a seven-game series, I’m banking on Antetokounmpo and Lopez winning the math equation for Team 2 by erasing the painted area and mitigating the pressure points that Dinwiddie and Brunson defending at the point of attack could present. I foresee the ball sticking a bit for Team 1, which plays to their isolation strengths, but could also bog them down against such a proven defensive formula.

Antetokounmpo, of course, is also the best player in this hypothetical series by leaps and bounds. Adebayo and Horford have both been as effective as one could ask for in checking the Greek Freak in the past. I’m just wanting for different players than Thomas or Barrett off the bench for Team 1 that would be more reliable ball-movers, floor-spacers and defenders. I think Team 2 has a few more ways to adjust over the course of a seven-game series by, say, sliding Antetokounmpo to the 5 and Portis to the 4, or inserting Hauser (who’s no defensive liability) for Brunson, Dinwiddie or Hart if knockdown spot-up shooting is needed.

It would be close. It would be back-and-forth. But so says my gut.

Western Conference

Round 1, Series 1: Team Tyler vs. Team Avinash

#4 Seed – Team Tyler

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

vs. #5 Seed – Team Avinash

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

Shamit Dua’s Decision: Team Tyler 4, Team Avinash 1

Normally when evaluating teams, I am looking at size, creation, and shooting. In this situation the creation and shooting of Team Tyler far exceeds the size advantages of Team Avinash. On a surface, the team starting those two bigs is going to cede significant ground on battle behind the 3 point line and when the game slows down, I do believe Team Avinash will have to decide between one of the two bigs to deploy during crunch time.

Zooming in a little bit, Team Tyler having home court advantage cannot be overlooked. Teams are 516-714 on the road this season. In addition, having the ability to deploy complimentary players around Kevin Durant at all positions is a great boon. Steven Adams, one of the league’s strongest bigs, matches up with Jokic in the post quite well. Meanwhile, this frees one of Kevin Durant or Aaron Gordon to roam off of Rudy Gobert. The reverse can also be true – Team Tyler can attach Aaron Gordon to Jokic and double with Adams off of Gobert. There is more lineup versatility on Tyler Tyler on both ends of the ball.

Meanwhile, the ability to deploy Brooks and Divincenzo at the point of attack greatly slows Team Avinash’s secondary creation options behind Jokic. Mike Conley seems to have found a similar fountain of youth that Chris Paul has, but as a grueling series goes forward, team 1’s ability to lean on Jamal Murray is a greater advantage than Jordan Poole.

Ultimately, I really do like the idea of Team Avinash, this just seems to be the worst possible matchup for them. The lack of size on the wing will significantly impact their ability to defend Kevin Durant – especially once team 1 goes “small” and spaces the bigs out. Frankly, a lineup of Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, Dillon Brooks, Kevin Durant, and Aaron Gordon is terrifying.

I have Team Avinash winning one of their home games because Jokic is THAT good and I do believe this team is capable of winning the possession battle via rebounds and free throws, but I do not see a competitive series unfolding.

Round 1, Series 2: Team AJ vs. Team Corban

#3 Seed – Team AJ

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

vs. #6 Seed – Team Corban

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kuminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kuminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

Ricky O’Donnell’s Decision: Team Corban 4, Team AJ 2

I felt confident about a Team Corban victory initially, but questioned myself the more I thought about it. Ultimately, I’m going with Team Corban for a few reasons: 1) Luka is the best player in the series, 2) there’s a spot for him to hide defensive (on Bullock), 3) the Monk/Klay/Keegan contingent can bomb threes with volume and get out to a lead that will be very difficult for Team AJ to wipe away given their lack of volume shooting, and 4) I fully believe in Draymond’s ability to solve problems as they present themselves. 

I am a bit scared of the lack of defensive interior depth on Team Corban as I don’t believe in Wood’s ability to impact a playoff series much, but it’s possible Kuminga can even handle some small-ball five minutes and blitz more pick-and-rolls. I love the Brown-Kleber bench for Team AJ and the defensive versatility it gives them. The swing factor in this series is Klay’s ability to guard Fox – I cautiously think he’s up for it but ideally you have a better POA defender around. I have no idea who the Booker matchup is here, but I think Keegan and Kuminga at least have the size to slow him down, and I’m not sold on Booker hitting the gas to burn them to the cup.  Ultimately I think Luka surrounded by such great shooting is just too much, and Draymond can magically fix most of what ails this team defensively.

Round 1, Series 3: Team Neema vs. Team Charlie

#2 Seed – Team Neema

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

vs. #7 Seed – Team Charlie

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

SJ’s Decision: Team Neema 4, Team Charlie 2

I chose Team Neema to win in a playoff series because I believe they have a better mix of  shooting, defense, rebounding and rim pressure than Team Charlie. While Anthony Edwards is an inconsistent defender, it’s mainly due to effort. With that being said, I like him and Andrew Wiggins on the wings defending with Kevon Looney manning the middle. They also have good POA defense with GP2 coming off the bench. Team Charlie’s shooting will win them a few games but Team Neema will ultimately win the series because of their defense and rebounding. Sabonis is the best rebounder when looking at both teams but Team Neema overall has a collection of better rebounders than Team Charlie.

I acknowledge (and so do you) that there are defensive schemes where both Sabonis and Naz Reid could look decent on defense but Team Charlie’s offense will be their biggest strength on defense. In a playoff setting I am usually wary of teams like this, especially given that I think Team Neema has the tools to exploit the weak defenders on Team Charlie. My biggest concern regarding Team Neema is their lack of playmaking. I think in this hypothetical universe if they did play and lose, it would’ve been because of the lack of playmaking. Team Charlie has 3-4 positive playmakers that can keep the ball moving which is definitely a strength of their team in addition to the shooting. The playoffs is *typically* a halfcourt game and Team Charlie definitely has the edge in the halfcourt because of this but coaching could mitigate some of the halfcourt concerns I have about Team Neema. 

Overall, I am more partial to defense and rebounding in the playoffs and I think lineup versatility is becoming more valuable which is why I went with Team Neema.

The post Swish Theory’s Playoff Remix: Results! appeared first on Swish Theory.

While that’s all well and fun, at Swish Theory we want to mix things up a bit. We want to imagine not just how teams currently constructed might perform, but…what if…everything was a little bit different?

That’s what we have here with the Swish Theory NBA Playoffs Remix. Fourteen contributors got together for a re-draft of all the players on playoff teams (top 7 seeds only, as of about a month ago – why the Mavs are here).

Who do you think would win? Basketball is a practice in creativity, let’s try to imagine the teams of the future, not just in 2023. We run these scenarios by special guest judge collaborators, to be announced over the course of the week – but who do you think will win?

The Teams: Eastern Conference

#1 Seed (last pick in first round): Team Gannon (@gannon_rice)

The pitch: Every Ingredient for Success. Clear cut #1 offensive engine. 25 PPG secondary. 2 Reigning All-Defensive members. Size (Everyone is 6’4+). A great cohesive feel for the game, especially with quick processing bigs. Sharpshooting (39% team average). P&R D versatility +  defensive hell at the POA.

Rotation:

• James Harden / Victor Oladipo
• De’Anthony Melton / Mikal Bridges / Victor Oladipo
• Mikal Bridges / Cam Johnson / De’Anthony Melton
• Cam Johnson / Evan Mobley
• Evan Mobley / Isaiah Hartenstein

The pitch for the team is a souped-up version of the 2017 Rockets, with an actual #2 option. James Harden is James Harden, to clear up any confusion. Now, combine the defensive prominence of Trevor Ariza and the shotmaking of Eric Gordon, and out of the lab comes Mikal Bridges. Melton takes on the off-guard role of a less rabid Patrick Beverley with high volume three-point shooting. Cam Johnson is a modern-era Ryan Anderson and Victor Oladipo provides bench creation like Lou Williams, but with size and defense. Evan Mobley provides the two-way rim threat of Clint Capela, along with serious on-ball chops. Then we go 2 years in the future and snag Hartensteins short-roll playmaking and defensive feel, did I mention this Rockets team won 55 games?

Our offense will be predicated around James Harden, but not the typical heliocentric offense seen in the past. The offensive feel our bigs bring allows a 5-Out look, utilizing them with the ball above the arc spamming DHO’s with every one of our players and stagger/split offense on the wings. P&R will be a key part of our offense, with Harden carrying a bulk of the primary usage, either creating his own looks, kicking to shooters (4 guys at 40% from 3), or throwing lobs to the rolling bigs (spamming ghost screens if it’s Cam at the 4). Mikal has shown an incredible leap as a 25 efficient PPG 1B option who will excel playing off Harden and easing the on-ball load off him. If you’re not convinced, let’s go over everything the offense can do. A do-everything offensive engine, a capable #2 creator, elite shooting, positional versatility, and every single one of our players providing a connective ball-moving offense, unique to every other team. 

Selecting James Harden meant I had to cover up some of his defensive liabilities, and I did just that. Melton and Oladipo provide elite POA defense for 48 minutes, and provide positional versatility to guard up to the 3. Mikal will match up against the top wing, while having off-ball freedom to cause chaos. Mobley will be our anchor, versatile in any role and capable of being a helpside roamer at the 4 and being a primary 5 in our defensive scheme. That scheme, P&R wise, will feature a mix of everything. This includes switching with mobley at the 5, blitzing slow processors, playing drop with IHart + against non-mid range threats, and primarily playing at the level, incorporating a soft hedge. Playing against reigning all-defensive team members Mikal and Mobley will be hell for the star western conference forwards. The 2 names not mentioned in the scheme, Harden and Cam, are both capable of being switched 1-4, allowing for further versatility in a defensive lineup with length, off-ball hawks, perimeter stoppers, and elite rim protection. 

#2 Seed: Team Pow (@draftpow)

The pitch: Max switchability with plus passing everywhere. My team has plenty of options to take down the matchups with the top talent in the East as they search for air space

Rotation:

• Jrue Holiday / Immanuel Quickley
• Immanuel Quickley / RJ Barrett / Cam Thomas
• Julius Randle / RJ Barrett
• Bam Adebayo  / Julius Randle
• Al Horford / Bam Adebayo

The two items that translate best from the regular season to the NBA playoffs are 1. defensive versatility and 2. tough shotmaking. When teams are able to lock into scheme, the NBA becomes a jousting competition, not exactly in iso but instead shooting pull ups aggressively after catching the ball on the move. With the best defensive personnel by far while still full of scorers and sound decision-makers (our starters have a combined 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio), we’ll play the territory game, winning possessions, finding open scorers and putting opposing stars in a bind.

In the playoffs, defenses are only as good as their worst defender. You need personnel who can not just fight through a screen but contest in an instant and understand how to recover in broken plays. My team’s worst defensive starter is Julius Randle, still league average and capable of locking in at a high level as an elite athlete. 

Second, you need to plan for your offense to go wrong. Your opponent will know where you’re trying to go, and your common ways of getting there. Players who can make adjustments on the swivel like Bam Adebayo, Al Horford, Jrue Holiday and Immanuel Quickley are rare, especially when they can also hit tough shots. We can sneak in some easy looks off of back cuts to optimize our passing, as well as all-five screening using our strength. Our team is built to be on a swivel, and also have 45%,  38%, 37%, 34% three point shooting starters and flamethrower Cam Thomas off the bench. 

We have potential swing factors across the board as any of Jrue, Randle, Barrett, IQ, Cam Thomas and Bam have a combined 13 forty point games this season. We have the tough shotmaking and strongest collective quick decision making to optimize our weapons.

#3 Seed: Team Oscar (@oscar_hoops)

The pitch: Led by Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown, this team offers a tantalizing package of all-world pullup shooters, elite and rangy defensive talent to counter any flavor of offensive star, and reliable spacers to play off of their pair of star wings.

Rotation:

• PG: Tyrese Maxey / Jevon Carter
• SG: Jaylen Brown / Jimmy Butler / Jevon Carter
• SF: Jimmy Butler / Jaylen Brown / Tobias Harris
• PF: Grant Williams / Tobias Harris / Jimmy Butler
• C: Mitchell Robinson / Grant Williams 

With my first pick being relatively late at #5 in the East pool, I didn’t head into the draft with a set roster construction philosophy in mind. Instead, I decided to see how the board fell and build around whichever centerpiece fell into my lap accordingly. While there were unfortunately no true superstar offensive options available when I got to the virtual podium, I was able to shift gears and assemble a gauntlet of defensive talent stacked to the brim with length, strength, and versatility. Rather than settling for a 2nd-tier primary creator with my top pick and trying to build a conventional offensive dynamo, I prioritized players who can offer major resistance in gaps and as point of attack defenders, while also nabbing enough tough shotmakers and individual offensive talents to make things work on the other end. From a championship upside perspective, the track record for teams without an MVP-caliber offensive fulcrum (although Butler was pretty damn close this year!) is admittedly poor, but I’m willing to bet that we can be an outlier with our combination of suffocating scheme-versatile defense and litany of talented scorers surrounded with good spacers.

If there’s one thing I’ll promise about this roster, it’s that we’ll have a counter for any flavor of creator we run up against. We have several elite point-of-attack options to throw at the two most common archetypes of high-usage offensive stars: small guard PnR maestros (Jevon Carter, Butler, and even Jaylen Brown), and bigger wing creators (Butler, Brown, and Grant Williams). To generate a favorable 1-on-1 matchup against our starters, opposing teams will have to run lineups with 5 players who are all threats with the ball in their hands, something most rosters are simply not capable of. And when we roll out our death lineup, swapping out Maxey for Jevon Carter, we’ll effectively have 5 fringe All-Defensive caliber players on the floor at once, while still maintaining good spacing around our 2 dynamic creators in Butler and Brown. Our elite length and range on the wing will allow us to be selectively aggressive sending gap help, as we won’t have to overcommit to slowing down drivers with the knowledge that we have an elite rim protector in Robinson waiting for them. We also have options in terms of pick-and-roll defending bigs: Robinson is our traditional drop big who also has hedge-and-recover flexibility, while Williams can moonlight as a small-ball switch 5 depending on matchup. Our defense is long, athletic, uber-versatile, and has few weak links, making it adaptable to any matchup and an ideal fit for playoff ball.

On the offensive end, we’ll adopt a ball-sharing philosophy to maximize our depth and hunt positive matchups. Much like how our defense offers few exploitable matchups, our plethora of solid-or-better scorers (Butler, Brown, Harris, Maxey) will prohibit opposing teams from hiding a weak perimeter defender on a non-threat. If they have a liability on D, we’ll be able to exploit it! 

Although we don’t have a traditional point guard on roster, Butler will serve as the de-facto primary ballhandler, as he provides both the most rim pressure and self-creation ability on the roster. His steady diet of pullup-2s, layups, and free throws will be the staple foods of our offense. Jaylen Brown will still be a key cog on that end, serving as a 1B option with the starters, and he’ll also be staggered to get minutes with the bench unit. We’ll mask his shaky ball control by getting him the ball in motion, primarily through pistol sets, and allowing him to win with touch and natural athletic gifts. Tyrese Maxey will be the nominal starting point guard, but will function as a lethal off-ball scorer playing off of our two star wings. Although he won’t be starting at the 4, Tobias Harris will still get significant minutes as a 6th man, filling in as a combo forward who can assimilate to any lineup we put him in. Finally, Mitchell Robinson will offer us an elite interior finisher and offensive rebounder who can command vertical attention as a roller, which will in turn allow Butler/Brown to cook in the short midrange. Although somewhat unconventional, our offense features 2 star creators surrounded by a cast of complementary players shooting 38%, 39%, 39% and 43% from 3 this season, respectively (excluding Mitchell Robinson). Having an elite pullup shooter to soak up late clock attempts in the playoffs is priceless; we have two of them, with plenty of kickout options available and elite play finishers on both levels in Maxey and Robinson. Although this is a defense-first team, we have the offensive firepower to score with anyone and always take advantage of the opponent’s weakest link.

#4 Seed: Team Larro (@_larrohoops)

The pitch: One of the best offensive generators in the NBA in Donovan Mitchell and one of the best defensive tandems in the NBA in Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. I’ve also added shooting and defense around this group with additions of: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kevin Love(mostly shooting), and Khris Middleton isn’t a bad defender himself.

Rotation:

• Marcus Smart/ Donovan Mitchell
• Donovan Mitchell/ Grayson Allen
• Khris Middleton/ Grayson Allen
• Jae Crowder/ Khris Middleton
• Jarrett Allen/ Kevin Love 

When I joined this fun exercise I set out to find an elite offense generator, rim protector, strong second scoring option that can also play make for others, and fill out the rest of the roster with role players that can stretch the floor and add some Variety to our offense.

Offensively this team will be coached into playing more random style offense with few set plays. I think that when you have players with the ability of Donovan Mitchell you allow them to apply pressure to the game and let them control the flow and pace. We will run double drags/single drag with Jarrett Allen as the screener for rim pressure and vertical spacing, at times it can be inverted with Jae depending on the type of defender who is guarding him. Pistol action with DMitch and Jarrett/Kevin Love. Being able to have Khris Middleton on the opposite side of the floor is a beautiful site when DMitch is your primary ballhandler because you can bet that he will have a lot more ability to attack tilted defenses and create for others off of it. Marcus Smart will stretch the floor, screen, and cut to keep things on the random side. Jae Crowder will also be in that floor spacing role mixed with some cutting. Grayson Allen and Kevin Love come off the bench and bring more shooting and versatility. Grayson can shoot off of DHO stuff, C+S, and movement just a bit. Kevin Love provides the ability to run some delay type actions with his passing ability. 

Defensively, I believe that I have one of the top Pick-and-roll defensive duos in the draft with Marcus Smart and Jarrett Allen. Jarrett has a cool ability to switch when needed, he also does a really good job of moving his feet and hips and being able to stay attached even when he is beat because of his length. Marcus Smart is our quarterback on this end of the floor. He can call out actions before they even begin and communicate with his teammates to make their job a bit easier. We already know about his point-of-attack defense. He’s a hound on the ball and off. As for everyone else, Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder both can switch screen actions to keep the ball in front of them. We will be prodominently a no-middle team on side ball screens, and middle ball screens we will switch it up. With Jarrett Allen in the fold we can show at the level because I can trust that Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder will have Jarrett’s back on those backside rotations. Kevin Love when out there will be a show at the level and will stay out of drop. 

All in all, I think I’ve built a team who can compete and shoot well enough to allow Donovan Mitchell and Khris Middleton to stay on the attack and create offense. 

#5 Seed: Team Josh A. (@joshaber_sports)

The pitch: Surrounding the league’s most proficient scorer with versatile complementary skill sets on both ends of the ball. Offensively, this team oozes with pick and roll creation, connective passing, quick decision making, perimeter shooting, screening, and ability to score in isolation. Defensively, the team has two rim protectors making sure that there is a deterrent at the rim at all times, even when a big is pulled into guarding a pick and roll.

Rotation: 

• Darius Garland / Derrick White
• Derrick White / Caleb Martin
• Dorian Finney-Smith / Caleb Martin / Jalen McDaniels
• Robert Williams / Jalen McDaniels
• Joel Embiid / Robert Williams

When I filled out my roster, I made sure to build my team to fit the strengths of my team’s superstar Joel Embiid. As a result, I made sure to surround him with pick and roll creators, elite and switchable point of attack defenders, and backline rim protection for when Embiid ends up being my primary pick and roll defensive big. 

I believe that Darius Garland would be a strong pairing with Joel Embiid, as his overall outside shooting and pick and roll play gives Embiid plenty of space for his beloved mid-post plays. I envision Garland relocating during these plays or receiving off ball screens to get open shots, which would in result distract defenders and prevent Embiid from getting helped on too much. Derrick White will be my primary point of attack defender, and on offense he will provide the team with great outside shooting, cutting, and connective passing. I believe that his skillset meshes very well with Darius Garland, who may struggle on the defensive end against tougher assignments.

As for my forwards, Dorian Finney-Smith provides the team with lots of length and physicality on the defensive end. He can serve as the team’s wingstopper, allowing White to cover the other team’s best guards and Robert Williams to be in his roamer role. I decided to go double big to support Embiid on both ends due to his weak side rim protection capabilities on defense and his ability to lurk around the dunkers spot on offense. I also think that Williams has some clear utility as an off ball screener when Embiid is operating in a face-up, as teams will have to fight to get around his screens to contest shots from our shooters.

As for my two rotational players off the bench, Caleb Martin provides the team with shooting, closeout attacks, connective passing, and physical on ball defense. Martin struggled at times when playing in a primary forward role with Miami this season, but when he was on the wings more he was able to showcase his offensive skill set more often. I decided to pair Jalen McDaniels with Caleb Martin as my other contributor off the bench, as I think he serves as a good compliment to Martin on the defensive end. Martin is very solid and physical while McDaniels brings lots of length and swift ground coverage on the defensive end.

When matching up with Larro’s team, we will be putting Embiid in a mid-drop system where he may at times play up at the level to deter pull-up threes from Donovan Mitchell. However, we may be able to get away with the drop system due to Derrick White’s excellent screen navigation. On offense, we will be running lots of Embiid pinch post plays, as he can create his own offense with ease. We will also implement some post split plays for Darius Garland to get some open threes or potential drives, which maximizes the offensive skill sets of our two stars.

#6 Seed: Team Josh U. (@2REDJUrl)

The pitch: 3 quality drivers surrounded with spacing + a vertical threat. An Elite rim protector + 2 POA defenders + size to switch.

Rotation:

• Malcolm Brogdon / Tyler Herro
• Quentin Grimes / Tyler Herro
• Jayson Tatum / Royce O’Neale
• Royce O’Neale / Yuta Watanabe
• Nicolas Claxton / Yuta Watanabe

NBA playoff success requires top quality offense AND defense. Of the 8 conference finals teams over the last two NBA playoffs 6 were in the top 10 in ORTG and 7 were top 10 in DRTG. I wanted to build a group who could do the same.

On offense all 8 conference finals teams had at least 1 player who averaged over 11 drives per game and 6 of the 8 had two such players! To drive our offense I drafted 3 players who average over 11 drives per game in Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, and Tyler Herro. Our spacing is excellent with 6 players who shoot above average from deep on over 6 attempts per 100 possessions. And we also have an elite finisher and lob threat in Nicolas Claxton who leads the league in fg%. 

Defensively all 8 of those teams were in the top half of the league in opponent eFG%. I built my team with an elite rim protector in Claxton, two quality POA defenders in Quentin Grimes and Royce O’Neale, and size across the rotation to switch. My opponents will have to work hard for good looks against us. We have the pieces to be a contender.

#7 Seed: Team Will (@w_a_morris)

The pitch: Featuring a mega-star who pressures the rim and bends defenses like no other. We have surrounded Giannis with a mixture of capable shot-makers, creators, and advantage continuers. Don’t expect to score at the rim against our long, active backline.

Rotation:

• Jalen Brunson / Spencer Dinwiddie
• Spencer Dinwiddie / Josh Hart
• Josh Hart / Sam Hauser 
• Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis / Sam Hauser
• Brook Lopez / Giannis Antetokounmpo / Bobby Portis

The lottery gods blessed me with the first pick in the East and I ended up rolling with NBA Champion and 2-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis has proven capable of being the go-to-guy on a championship team, so selecting him was a no-brainer. I tried to replicate Milwaukee’s frontcourt rotation, later taking Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. The Lopez-Giannis duo has been deadly once again this year, with Milwaukee recording a 9.2 Net-Rating with those two on the floor. Teams are shooting just 60.0% within 6-feet of the basket against Milwaukee this season. Preventing easy buckets at the rim is a recipe for winning basketball. 

Giannis is obviously going to draw plenty of defensive attention, so with the rest of my picks I looked for players who could punish defenses off his scoring gravity, both by knocking down open shots and attacking closeouts. Jalen Brunson has established himself as a true superstar this year, winning as a creator with his exceptional footwork, handle, and touch. Dinwiddie too provides some excellent secondary/tertiary creation chops. Both guards also have plenty of experience operating away from the ball. Josh Hart has given the Knicks a huge spark as a slasher and spot-up shooter, shooting 74.2% at the rim and 56.8% from three. Sam Hauser is one of the best shooters in the world at 6’8”, and while he’s probably going to have to log more minutes at the 3 than he has in Boston, his ability to bomb away off of movement bolsters our bench offense. 

The obvious concern with this roster is our perimeter defense. Hart is tenacious on-the-ball, but at 6’4” he may struggle to check some of the more difficult wing assignments in the NBA playoffs. Dinwiddie and Brunson will have to really lock in at the point-of-attack versus lead ball-handlers. Fortunately, having Giannis and Brook on the backline lurking gives us some leeway.

The Teams: Western Conference

#1 Seed: Team Sajdak (@davidsajdak8)

The pitch: Versatility and room for flexibility, with some of the best shooters in the league and defenders that can slide up and down the lineup, will make my team a tough out for any opponent.

Rotation:

• Kyrie Irving / Tyus Jones
• Tim Hardaway Jr. / Kyrie Irving / John Konchar
• Kyle Anderson / John Konchar
• Jaren Jackson Jr. / Kyle Anderson / Karl-Anthony Towns 
• Karl-Anthony Towns / Jaren Jackson Jr.

Picking last in the west meant that the true 1A primary option type of guys were already off the board before I got a chance to select. So, I decided to really focus (as best I could) on lineup versatility and flexibility rather than building my team around 1 talent. Playoff basketball can get really funky so giving my coaching staff (or me I guess) as much wiggle room as possible to make in-game adjustments or get weird with things was a goal of mine.

My primary lineup of choice offers plenty of shooting and playmaking, with one of the best isolation players in Kyrie Irving able to go get me one when the game calls for it. With the way Kyrie likes to play off his bigs, I was really excited to pair him with one of the league’s premier big-man playmakers and play-finishers in Karl-Anthony Towns. Add Kyle Anderson to the mix and you have a lineup with 3 players that you can trust to make good decisions off the dribble and maintain or capitalize on advantages that have been created for them. With Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jaren Jackson Jr. rounding out the lineup, I have two guys that are both more than capable shooters (especially Hardaway, whose an elite one) and can make plays off the dribble attacking closeouts. Off the bench, Tyus Jones is the best backup point guard in the league, offering a steady hand when Irving has to check out the game. Finally, Konchar gives me another +decision-making wing that’s capable of making open shots.

On defense, I got a perennial DPOY candidate in Jaren Jackson Jr. who I targeted early on in the draft. Jackson is somebody I see as the perfect fit next to KAT defensively, allowing him to stay away from the perimeter and cleaning up his mistakes with his elite weakside rim protection. My starting lineup is lacking in size at the guard positions, but this is where flexibility/versatility I was talking about earlier can really start to pay off with Konchar able to play the 2 over THJ if extra defense or size is needed. I also have the ability to play JJJ as my 5 and slide Kyle Anderson to the 4 in end of game situations or whenever needed.

#2 Seed: Team Neema (@findingneema23)

The pitch: My team exemplifies the NBA’s highest standards of pace and athleticism. Paired with specialists at each position as well as plenty of skill along the wings, this team makes up for their lack of height with grit, speed and strength. Outrunning and out-working our opponent will be our key to a deep playoff run.

Rotation:

• Ja Morant/Gary Payton II
• Anthony Edwards/Gary Payton II
• Andrew Wiggins/Michael Porter Jr/Anthony Edwards
• Michael Porter Jr./Andrew Wiggins/Brandon Clarke
• Kevon Looney/Brandon Clarke

Our best ability is our ability to run. The team boasts two of the most athletic backcourt players in the NBA. Ja Morant is one of the best point guards in the league, and Edwards is a microwave offensively while also being a nightly threat. The pairing is backed up by Gary Payton II, who provides a lockdown defender to fill the gaps if defense is needed, as Edwards and Morant are both capable, but inconsistent defenders. At the wings we have length and shooting in Andrew Wiggins and Michael Porter Jr, the two juxtaposing one another in role. Wiggins provides game-changing defense along the wings  and Porter is one of the most efficient wings in the league. At the big, while there isn’t a ton of size, we are able to be versatile in our coverages in style of play. Kevon Looney and Brandon Clarke may not be the tallest bigs, but both provide strategic versatility and are great hustle bigs.

Our philosophy is to play with extreme pace. Having versatility across our lineup, this team can find a way to match up with any team in the conference. We can go big with Clarke and Looney together, or go small playing Wiggins or GP2 at the big position. Versatility, size and athleticism are extremely important, and the team still has the pieces to space the floor effectively. Our combination of size, speed and strength, while also having good shooting on the wings and defensive specialists, can help us lockup the more offensive focused teams, and outrun and outgun the teams that just can’t keep up.

#3 Seed: Team AJ (@NBA_Jeremy1)

The pitch: Well balanced team on both ends of the floor. Our mix of athleticism, defense, and half court scoring give us the versatility to match up well with anyone

Rotation:

• De’Aaron Fox/Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Devin Booker/Bruce Brown
• Reggie Bullock/Jaden McDaniels
• Jaden McDaniels/Maxi Kleber
• DeAndre Ayton/Maxi Kleber

The selling point for this team is versatility and athleticism. We’ll be really comfortable playing multiple styles offensively, typically at a fast speed with De’Aaron Fox running the point alongside a few other plus athletes. When we need to slow it down or score at the end of the games that shouldn’t be an issue either, as Devin Booker and Fox give us high level creation in the half court along with DeAndre Ayton’s presence as a play finisher. The biggest issue on offense is likely our lack of high end 3pt shooting, but everyone on the team is at least capable of making an open jumper so spacing shouldn’t be much of an issue in spite of that.

The versatility of our team translates to the defensive end as well. We have reliable options to defend at the POA (Jaden McDaniels, Bruce Brown), protect the rim (Ayton, McDaniels, Maxi Kleber), and defend wings (McDaniels, Reggie Bullock). Kleber off the bench gives us the option to play a 2nd big with Ayton, or as the 5 in smaller lineups depending on the matchup. We also don’t have many glaring weaknesses to attack or hunt on defense, as Fox is really the only questionable defender in the rotation and even he can provide resistance when locked in.

Overall our flexibility on both ends give us a lot of different looks we can throw at teams. We can get out in transition and put up points quickly with our athletes and ball handlers, but there’s also plenty of positional size and defense we can lean on as well. We can play whatever style is needed for a given matchup, and at the end of games we have two of the league’s best half court shot makers in Booker and Fox to take us home. 

#4 Seed: Team Tyler (@ProspectingNBA)

The pitch: Kevin Durant, the greatest shotmaker of all time, surrounded by physical and versatile defenders, walking heat-check Jamal Murray, with the Point God himself running the show.

Rotation:

• Chris Paul / Jamal Murray
• Jamal Murray / Donte DiVincenzo / Dillon Brooks
• Kevin Durant / Dillon Brooks
• Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant 
• Steven Adams / Aaron Gordon / Kevin Durant

“It ain’t about how hard you hit. It’s about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward; how much you can take and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done! “ – Rocky Balboa

Championships are made through excellence and resilience. Playoff basketball is like a 12-round fight, trapped within a cage of ropes where survival is born through careful analysis and tactical precision. Weaknesses are hunted and edges are unraveled, bit by bit. In drafting this team I set out to build a roster defensively versatile with playoff-durable offense. Offensively, rather than emphasize spacing for the sake of three point attempts, the goal was to find skilled players with a multifaceted offensive game. 

Chis Paul is the greatest floor general of the modern era and will operate as a cooler counterpart to Jamal Murray’s shotmaking inferno. With Donte DiVincenzo and Dillon Brooks coming off the bench this backcourt is ready-made for any defensive matchup you throw at them with the skill, spacing and shotmaking needed to carry an effective offense.

In the frontcourt Steven Adams will pair as an excellent screen and roll big with Chris Paul, and while he may not have much of a scoring load, his screen setting, rebounding and rim protection will provide a baseline competence on that end. He’s an incredibly strong big who, at the very least, can stand the physical test of guarding the star big men of the league. 

Aaron Gordon is an incredibly versatile defensive piece to guard 3-5 and with the strength and vertical pop to sop up backup center minutes for this roster. Gordon is an effective offensive player when his role is properly limited and the surrounding offensive talent on this roster allows for that context. 

Finally, we get to Kevin Durant, the man himself. There is no greater tough shot-maker in the world, and no skill more important in playoff basketball. Our foundation of defensive toughness and versatility will make this team an incredibly tough out even when shots aren’t falling. Games are going to come down to the wire and when someone is shooting to win or go home, I’m taking Kevin Durant every time.

#5 Seed: Team Avinash (@100guaranteed)

The pitch: Imagine running a lineup composed of the most talented offensive and defensive centers in the league, surrounded by a bevy of on-ball creators with slashing and pull-up goodness. The perfect counter to small-ball, teams lacking size or positional utility are especially prone to being eaten alive by this versatile lineup. Let’s be real: who’s stopping a Jokic-Gobert pnr, especially when they are surrounded by personnel hungry to capitalize on even the most minute of advantages afforded by their size?

Rotation:

• Mike Conley/Jordan Poole
• Desmond Bane/Jordan Poole
• Josh Green/Josh Okogie
• Nikola Jokic/Josh Okogie
• Rudy Gobert/Nikola Jokic

This is certainly an unorthodox combination of talents, but the convergence of size and shooting could unlock another level of dominance. With premier shooting talents, strong slashers, and arguably 2 of the top 5 centers of the decade, there’s inherent versatility beyond what I can summarize here. The crux of the offense revolves around high-low action between two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and three-time DPOY Rudy Gobert. Gobert has had a disappointing season, but much of that can be attributed to a suboptimal context- he hasn’t been able to attack the rim at requisite levels by virtue of Finch’s more free-flowing offense. He should thrive on a team with above-average playmakers at every position, most notably Jokic. 

Operating at the high post or top of the key while Gobert stays near the basket, Jokic can create open looks for Gobert down low, kick to one of the virtuoso shooters on the perimeter, or find one of the strong wing slashers for a quick 45 cut. I decided to ultimately draft Gobert not because of his defensive prowess, but simply because I cannot fathom a reality where a team can effectively shut down any sort of Jokic-Gobert joint action, especially considering the accompanying shooters/slashers at hand. Guarding two seven footers is inherently difficult, but Jokic’s guard-like skillset makes this proposition even more wildly difficult.

The slashing/shooting on this team should be considered as well. Conley, Bane, and Poole are all relatively versatile shooters with effective pull-up jumpers, but they are also dynamic handlers in space. With strong finishing packages and elusive handles, each of these players are solid self creators who can thrive playing off one another and alongside two roll threats. The sheer slashing competencies of this lineup, especially with C&S maestros/strong wings Okogie and Josh Green, should enable even more versatility to complement the two seven footers.

Defensively, let’s not overthink this. Bane and Conley are both strong, well-above average defenders, while Okogie and Green have garnered reputations as bendy (in regards to screen nav), lockdown wings. Jokic’s strength can enable him to cover 4s decently well, and we all know what Gobert is capable of. This is a fascinatingly strong defensive lineup, but in the interest of word count, I think the transcendent, unprecedented nature of the offense needs to be emphasized. If you’re a bit wary of these players, I’ll end with this: I cannot remember a single 5 man lineup with as many possible PnR permutations. The shooting/slashing/playmaking/size combination of skills is truly unprecedented; teams with inadequate size or versatile-coverage personnel will indubitably get cooked.

#6 Seed: Team Corban aka Monta’s Inferno (@corbannba)

The pitch: Balanced team basketball with explosive offensive upside, length, and positional flexibility

Rotation:

• Luka Doncic / Malik Monk
• Klay Thompson /Luka Doncic
• Jonathan Kaminga/Klay Thompson
• Keegan Murray/ Jonathan Kaminga
• Draymond Green / Christian Wood

For playoff basketball, among many keys for success, two ring paramount: quality defense and crunchtime scoring. With Monta’s Inferno, both boxes are checked off. On the offensive side, we have the second leading scorer in the league as well as the one ranked sixth in assists (Luka). In addition to that, we have one of the greatest three point shooters of all time, a terror coming off pin down actions (Klay) AND a player who, among being an efficient scorer, has made the most threes as a rookie in NBA history (Keegan). Off the pine we have a proven, microwave scorer across both guard spots (Monk) and a big man who can get baskets in a hurry and is equally adept taking the ball to the hole or shooting from outside (Wood). Even the players who don’t specialize in scoring specifically bring other attributes to the table that will elevate the overall offense, from rebounding to additional playmaking (Green/Kaminga)

On  defense, Green is the lynchpin at the 5 with his communication and ability to anchor the backline, and he is surrounded by positional length at the other four positions. Every player but Luka is at least competent on that end of the floor, and with stronger players surrounding him, Luka would be assigned the least threatening wing player to match up with. With Kaminga’s ability to swallow up smaller players defensively, he would be the assigned player on guards, where he can use his length and strength to mitigate their effectiveness. Sheer size may be a slight weakness for Monta’s Inferno but the physicality, length, and positional flexibility 1-4 is something my team possesses in spades, and I feel that our squad is at the very least serviceable on that end of the floor. 

Monta’s Inferno takes after its namesake and is two things for certain: a bucket, and a problem. There will be precious few chances to rest on defense against our squad; we are guaranteed to make you work. Defensively my opponents may score *some* but it won’t be easy, and it will ultimately be a losing effort. In this thought exercise Monta’s Inferno has a top 10 offensive and a top 15 defense, and those ingredients will be just enough to produce a winning recipe.

#7 Seed: Team Charlie (@klaytheist11)

The pitch: spamming Steph/Sabonis handoffs with a smattering of PNR, elite spacing and solid wing defense to counter the lack of rim protection

Rotation:

• Steph Curry/Cameron Payne
• Kevin Huerter/Cameron Payne/KCP
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Harrison Barnes
• Harrison Barnes/Naz Reid
• Domantas Sabonis/Naz Reid

The pitch for this team is ultimate spacing/small-ball motion offense with a center who can take maximum advantage of a clear lane and open post while finding cutters and shooters. Steph-Sabonis PNR could create 5-out offensive looks, with three positive floor spacers off the ball. Secondary creation somewhat lacking, but all three of Huerter/KCP/Barnes can be handoff guys with Sabonis through motion looks.

Payne provides a capable replacement ballhandler, one who can shoot enough and manage PNRs with both Sabonis and Reid. The defense is lacking on the whole, but Sabonis can play at the level and in drop to maximize his skill with his hands. Reid can do much of the same, and Barnes provides a big body deterrent off the weakside if the big is at the level of the screen.

This team may not have a ton of defense, but we can space and pace with the best of them.

The post Swish Theory Roundtable: Playoff Remix appeared first on Swish Theory.

“We want him taking more shots,” the seven-year head coach said, donning a devilish grin, “just trying to take the ball out of [Kevin Durant] and [Devin Booker]’s hands.”

The Suns corrected this in Game 2, winning 123-109 with a healthy dose of KD and Book. The Suns’ dynamic duo combined for 34 points on 20 shots in the second half, a noteworthy increase from the 20 points on 12 shots in the second half of Game 1. Suns’ head coach Monty Williams diagnosed the problem as a lack of touches for their best players and corrected it to even up the series. 

And so, the precedent for the series is set. With Lue having the edge on the clipboard and demonstrating he has the players to execute his strategy, Williams’ ability to make effective and timely adjustments that maximize the shotmaking ability of his best players will determine the outcome of the series.

In Game 1, the strategy was clear: stay home on Durant and Booker when they’re off the ball, bring early nail help on drives, and defend the PnR with a soft drop. Push Monty Williams to use KD and Book as spacers off the ball and incentivize his two star scorers to pass out of the PnR. 

And they happily obliged. Though their typically efficient selves, the duo combined for just 34 shot attempts (19 for Booker and a mere 15 for Durant). And Durant didn’t touch the ball for the first five possessions of “clutch time” (the last five minutes of a game separated by five points or less).

In Game 2, the onus was on Monty Williams to design a counter. Like the cowbell in Blue Oyster Cult’s Don’t Fear the Reaper, the answer was, simply but undeniably, more. More KD, more Book: a concerted effort to allocate more shots for the Suns’ best players. 

At the 7:13 mark of the first quarter, the Suns ran Horns Out for Durant with Ayton as the screener. Kawhi Leonard (who Lue occasionally set as Ayton’s primary defender) switched on to Durant, who read the switch and tried to feed Ayton on the roll. Result: turnover, points in transition for the Clippers, timeout Suns.

Shortly after the timeout, the Suns went back to Horns Out for Durant. And though the defense sniffed it out rather early, it didn’t matter. Williams runs that play for the distinct purpose of leaning into what makes Durant so special, shotmaking at an elite level.

Same goes for Booker, who is as shifty and dynamic a scorer as the NBA has to offer, albeit still mediocre as a passer. Lue setting up the Clipper’s defense to place Booker in the playmaker role worked, for a time. The strategy forced Booker to make decisions typically reserved for Paul, and while Book’s improved drastically as a decision maker, the intensity of the Clippers still bothered him.

Until he went unconscious. Booker took 14 of his 22 shots in the second half and broke the Clippers defensive strategy of icing ball screens by attacking any available space with his shot. He finished with a game high 38 points, 25 of which came after the break.

Through two games, this series has been a classic “Jimmy’s-and-Joe’s vs. X’s and O’s”, with both head coaches embodying these ideas. Lue’s defensive principles ushered the Clippers to a Game 1 win, while Williams simplifying the decision making process for his two best scorers busted Lue’s principles in Game 2.

Now, it’s Ty Lue’s turn to counter what will likely be a barrage from Booker and Durant in Game 3. A contest in which they will be without superstar Kawhi Leonard. While Eric Gordon provides important shooting, trading his minutes for Terance Mann and Norman Powell adds physicality to the Clippers’ point of attack defense without losing too much shooting. The added aggression up top (especially without Leonard’s pressure) complements how the Clipper’s’ bigs have been playing the PnR, with soft drops incentivizing navigation into the midrange. Although the Sun’s’ duo is famously excellent in that department, it also means less space for passing angles, easier contests from multiple defenders, and (lest we forget) two is still a smaller number than three. 

Over the past decade, teams that win Game 3 of a series tied 1-1 going into the game win that series 75.9 percent of the time. Anything less than the best possible performance from either side will be a major roadblock to their ultimate goal. Williams’ Game 2 coaching set a new precedent in the series, and it will be up to Lue to determine a strategy that could save the Clippers’ season.

The post Coaching Battle: Ty Lue vs. Monty Williams appeared first on Swish Theory.

But the first two games felt like the Warriors stood in the same spot and dug a 15-foot hole straight down and became shocked when they couldn’t climb out.

Despite out-shooting the Kings for two games on the road, a seemingly impossible feat considering Golden State’s road shooting splits, they couldn’t stop tripping over themselves. The advantage from deep (30% on 70 attempts for SAC vs. 32% on 90 attempts for GSW) has been negligible, but the advantage inside the arc has been a major surprise. GSW is making 65% of their twos, compared to 54% from Sacramento.

What’s really killing them is the volume of high-value shots they are allowing to Sacramento. Not only are they taking 50% more shots inside the arc than Golden State by total volume, but they are also getting high-value short midrange shots that GSW has traditionally allowed. De’Aaron Fox especially is able to take advantage of that:

The shooting percentage on twos and from deep has also been completely negated by the Kings pummeling the undersized and under-hustling Warriors on the offensive glass. A 17-9 margin in Game 1 and 12-9 in Game 2 only furthers Golden State’s deficit in shot totals. It’s no coincidence the Kings got 8 more shot attempts in a three-point Game 1 victory, and 10 more in Game 2. But the losses on the glass are only half the equation.

Unsurprisingly, Golden State has also lost the turnover battle in both games. That feeds right into the Kings’ high-powered transition game, and it’s absolutely murdering them.

Oh, did I mention the Kings also won the free-throw battle in both games because of their superior rim pressure and point-of-attack defense? And that Golden State’s defensive fulcrum will be missing for Game 3 after stomping out Domantas Sabonis like a Mortal Kombat finishing move?

So, Are We Cooked?

Maybe. It’s possible that Golden State is gearing up to charge out of the gates into death and glory like Theoden and Aragorn at Helm’s Deep. And though they don’t have reinforcements coming at dawn of the fifth day, they have one thing neither Sacramento nor Saruman possesses: Wardell Stephen Curry II.

Through the course of his playoff career, Curry has played in 12 do-or-die games while down 2-1 or 3-2 in the series. He averages 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while the team has posted an astounding 8-4 record with their backs against the wall. He’s at his most dangerous when threatened, and I fully expect him to go nuclear tonight to try to avoid the first 3-0 series deficit of his career. Never having been down 2-0 is an incredible feat by itself, and Steph will do all he can to hold the tide. The increased PNR frequency will be on full display tonight: expect a good 50 ball screens for Curry tonight.

But against the best offense in the league, he won’t be enough by himself.

Supporting Cast is Called To Action

Without Draymond Green, lots of other players will need to step up. Even if Jonathan Kuminga joins the starting lineup, the Warriors will need a Herculean effort from future Chase Center statue-haver Kevon Looney. The league leader in offensive rebounds needs to put on a one-man glass-cleaning show to negate Sacramento’s advantage on the glass.

They’re also going to rely heavily on the off-ball rotations from Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. So much of their first-ranked opponent rim percentage mark is predicated on getting the right rotations from Draymond Green, and without him, someone will need to step in to help Kevon Looney when dealing with Sabonis in the post, trying to contain De’Aaron Fox drives, or tracking and erasing their cutting wings.

Extra reliance on Jonathan Kuminga is perhaps a necessity tonight. Jordan Poole is not playing up to his pedigree, and Golden State is in dire need of a positive contributor on defense who can switch and stay engaged off the ball. Kuminga is also capable of filling Poole’s rim pressuring via cuts, rolls, slips, and drives without all the silly extra stuff that comes with Poole’s recent offensive performance.

The point-of-attack defense also needs to step up, especially if Poole is seeing diminished minutes. With less defensive mistakes to cover up, they’ll have to buckle down on Fox, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter to stop the endless purple tide of rim pressure, midrange mastery, and perimeter shooting.

How Can They Pull It Off?

We’ve seen the how. In the first quarter of Monday’s game, they showed crisp offense and a hustling defense that forced Sacramento into far more threes and turnovers than they would have liked while controlling the glass to boot. Then the effort faded, the defense collapsed, and so did the lead.

Effort is first and foremost. Fight for every inch on the glass. Guard the ball with necessary caution. Fly off every screen, cut and roll hard, and rotate with a purpose. They’re capable of out-talenting the Kings on a bad night, but they need to win games by outworking them. Another stale effort will find them at a point of no return.

They need to stay committed to blowing up Sacramento’s handoff actions, forcing Sabonis into double teams, and keeping De’Aaron Fox out of the middle at all costs. And offensively even a few minutes of stagnated movement and lack of cohesion can put them under against the best offense in the league. A full 48 minutes of crisp effort will win them this game, even without Draymond Green.

It’s entirely in the hands of the players now. If they don’t bring effort and execution to tonight’s matchup, they should start looking at flights to Cabo.

The post How the Warriors Can Fight Back appeared first on Swish Theory.

One Laker had 29 points on 11-of-14 shooting while another scored 14 points in the 4th quarter to close out the game. Neither were named LeBron James or Anthony Davis.

Rui Hachimura’s graceful 29-piece and Austin Reaves’ boastful closing touches in crunch time showed how the Lakers finally don’t have to depend on LeBron or AD to have superstar offensive outputs to win games. Hachimura was huge mostly in the 3rd quarter, first hitting a contested three in the corner which opened up the floodgates. The former 9th overall pick was 5-6 from three, feasting off of open looks generated from LeBron or AD’s gravity on the defense plus Memphis sagging off of him and daring him to make shots and he made them pay. 

Down the stretch with Lebron and AD on the court, it was Austin Reaves getting ball screen after ball screen and absolutely killing the Grizzlies’ drop coverage every time down. Reaves snaked around a reaching Jaren Jackson Jr. for a layup, hit a deep pull-up three as Desmond Bane went under the AD screen, then hit a leaning pull-up midrange jumper to put the dagger in the coffin and screamed “I’M HIM!” while running to the bench. The duo of Reaves and Hachimura combined for an absurd 14-of-15 shooting performance in the 2nd half and it was a much deserved coming out party for the two new Laker fan favorites.

All of that isn’t to say that LeBron or Davis didn’t play well though, especially Davis who had one of his best defensive performances to date with 3 steals and a playoff career-high 7 blocks. The big man set the tone early with 3 blocks in the first 9 minutes of the game and the rest of the team followed his lead on that end while he continued to dominate defensively until the final buzzer. Davis finished with 22 points, 12 rebounds (4 offensive), 3 assists, and was a staggering plus-27. LeBron even chipped in with 3 blocks of his own, all in a pin-the-glass fashion which is a LeBron favorite, and he also pitched in an efficient 21 points and 11 rebounds.

As far as Memphis and what to look for in the rest of the series, obviously the main concern is the health of Ja Morant. Morant took a hard fall and landed on his wrist after a charge attempt from Anthony Davis with under 6 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and was ruled out the rest of the game. Without him, you can wish the Grizzlies’ chances farewell but when Morant was in, the Lakers did contain him fairly well, limiting him to only 2 assists to go with 6 turnovers and zero free throws attempted on the night. Morant rarely, if ever, got a full head of steam toward the rim for layups, and when he did he was met by the defensive stalwart that is Anthony Davis. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. had a superb game in what was really the only great performance by a Memphis Grizzly. The newly-minted All-Star had 31 points on 13-of-21 shooting with 2 threes and brings a potential problem for LA to solve. With or without Morant in the next couple of games, the Lakers have to think about sending more bodies toward Jackson Jr. when he’s posting up. His playmaking is not one of his standout skills and when going up against anybody not named Anthony Davis, he dominated 1-on-1 matchups in the interior. 

The Lakers crushed Memphis on the glass, with 45 rebounds (10 offensive) to Memphis’ 34 (6 offensive). Related, and as a potential swing factor for the series, LA won the fastbreak points battle with 26 to Memphis’ 17.

If the Lakers get even better offensive outputs from LeBron or Davis with the rising performances of the supporting cast, things could get tricky for Memphis in a hurry, especially with their superstar’s health in limbo.

The post The Rui & Reaves Show: Lakers Prevail in Game 1 Against Memphis appeared first on Swish Theory.