This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.

Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.

Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.

Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.

Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.

Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

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One Laker had 29 points on 11-of-14 shooting while another scored 14 points in the 4th quarter to close out the game. Neither were named LeBron James or Anthony Davis.

Rui Hachimura’s graceful 29-piece and Austin Reaves’ boastful closing touches in crunch time showed how the Lakers finally don’t have to depend on LeBron or AD to have superstar offensive outputs to win games. Hachimura was huge mostly in the 3rd quarter, first hitting a contested three in the corner which opened up the floodgates. The former 9th overall pick was 5-6 from three, feasting off of open looks generated from LeBron or AD’s gravity on the defense plus Memphis sagging off of him and daring him to make shots and he made them pay. 

Down the stretch with Lebron and AD on the court, it was Austin Reaves getting ball screen after ball screen and absolutely killing the Grizzlies’ drop coverage every time down. Reaves snaked around a reaching Jaren Jackson Jr. for a layup, hit a deep pull-up three as Desmond Bane went under the AD screen, then hit a leaning pull-up midrange jumper to put the dagger in the coffin and screamed “I’M HIM!” while running to the bench. The duo of Reaves and Hachimura combined for an absurd 14-of-15 shooting performance in the 2nd half and it was a much deserved coming out party for the two new Laker fan favorites.

All of that isn’t to say that LeBron or Davis didn’t play well though, especially Davis who had one of his best defensive performances to date with 3 steals and a playoff career-high 7 blocks. The big man set the tone early with 3 blocks in the first 9 minutes of the game and the rest of the team followed his lead on that end while he continued to dominate defensively until the final buzzer. Davis finished with 22 points, 12 rebounds (4 offensive), 3 assists, and was a staggering plus-27. LeBron even chipped in with 3 blocks of his own, all in a pin-the-glass fashion which is a LeBron favorite, and he also pitched in an efficient 21 points and 11 rebounds.

As far as Memphis and what to look for in the rest of the series, obviously the main concern is the health of Ja Morant. Morant took a hard fall and landed on his wrist after a charge attempt from Anthony Davis with under 6 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and was ruled out the rest of the game. Without him, you can wish the Grizzlies’ chances farewell but when Morant was in, the Lakers did contain him fairly well, limiting him to only 2 assists to go with 6 turnovers and zero free throws attempted on the night. Morant rarely, if ever, got a full head of steam toward the rim for layups, and when he did he was met by the defensive stalwart that is Anthony Davis. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. had a superb game in what was really the only great performance by a Memphis Grizzly. The newly-minted All-Star had 31 points on 13-of-21 shooting with 2 threes and brings a potential problem for LA to solve. With or without Morant in the next couple of games, the Lakers have to think about sending more bodies toward Jackson Jr. when he’s posting up. His playmaking is not one of his standout skills and when going up against anybody not named Anthony Davis, he dominated 1-on-1 matchups in the interior. 

The Lakers crushed Memphis on the glass, with 45 rebounds (10 offensive) to Memphis’ 34 (6 offensive). Related, and as a potential swing factor for the series, LA won the fastbreak points battle with 26 to Memphis’ 17.

If the Lakers get even better offensive outputs from LeBron or Davis with the rising performances of the supporting cast, things could get tricky for Memphis in a hurry, especially with their superstar’s health in limbo.

The post The Rui & Reaves Show: Lakers Prevail in Game 1 Against Memphis appeared first on Swish Theory.

We Got Shootas!

The Lakers’ shooting after the deadline has surprisingly stayed around the same spot in terms of overall 3-point percentage — 24th after the deadline, 26th before the deadline — but with the new acquisitions, their shooting prowess on the perimeter can lead to nights where the Lakers just torch the nets. Last Tuesday though, they torched the Pelicans in a franchise record-breaking effort of 15 made threes in the 1st half. Led by Malik Beasley who provided seven of the 15 threes, the Lakers were able to capitalize on the Pelicans’ defensive game plan focused on Anthony Davis — who had 35 points on his own so I guess that didn’t work — which led to miscues all night.

The improved shooting talent on the roster has particularly shown in the midrange. Prior to the deadline, LA shot 38.8% on pull-up 2PT shots which would tie the Houston Rockets for last across the full season. Since the trades, the Lakers are shooting 43.1% on those shots, which would rank 13th across the full season. With the additions of D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura while also increasing the minutes of Austin Reaves and Dennis Schröder, LA has found a new scoring range they can rely on.

A Star (and a lineup) Was Born

Speaking of Austin Reaves, the dismissal of Russell Westbrook and Kendrick Nunn has opened up minutes for him at the guard position and he has taken full advantage. In the month of March, Reaves is averaging 18.5 points (64.8% from two [!], 37.5% from three, and 83.3% from the line on 8.2 attempts), 5.6 assists, and only 1.8 turnovers per game. Reaves’ threat as a perimeter skill-guard has fit in seamlessly with the interior presence of Davis and also complements the slashing game of Schröder. The rise of Reaves — and the absence of LeBron who is nursing a foot injury — has brought coach Darvin Ham to concoct a new guard-centric lineup when they were once frowned upon.

Earlier in the season, whenever a lineup of three guards entered the game for the Lakers (usually a combination of Westbrook, Nunn, Schröder, Reaves, Patrick Beverley, and Lonnie Walker IV), there was a collective groan from all Laker fans in the Twittersphere. For a three-guard lineup to be effective, those guards must have some type of shooting, positional size, and adequate defense, and most of those lineups before the deadline didn’t have any of these prerequisites. However, the combination of D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and Austin Reaves checks pretty much all the boxes for a three-guard lineup to work — and boy, it has.

Through 93 minutes, that trio has posted a plus-minus of plus-66, while generating a 131.4 offensive rating and 92.5 defensive rating, for a mind-boggling +38.9 NET rating. That’s insane. And those staggering numbers won’t hold as the sample grows larger, but the Lakers can now put out optimal lineups that just make sense and guess what? They work and are contributing to winning.

Back to the Basics

In the 17 games after the trade deadline, the Lakers boast the number one defensive rating in the league at 109.6 in that span. With the addition of Jarred Vanderbilt and the subtraction of many negative defenders — I’m looking at you, Russell Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, Thomas Bryant, and Lonnie Walker IV who has found his way out of the rotation — the Lakers have seen massive improvements on that side of the court. Vanderbilt can cover a wide range of elite players, from guards to wings, that were previously guarded by the likes of Westbrook and/or Beverley — his best work being on Brandon Ingram (twice) and Luka Dončić in the miraculous 27-point comeback vs Dallas.

Through 307 minutes, the staunch defensive pairing of the two University of Kentucky products, Vanderbilt and Davis, have posted an impressive defensive rating of 106.8. This destructive duo is at the forefront of the Lakers bringing back the defensive foundation that the 2020 title team was built upon.

With the two previous rosters — yes, I’m counting the pre-deadline 2023 Lakers as a separate roster — the idea was to have a smash-mouth offense surrounded by shooters which was well removed from the identity of the team that had just won it all. LeBron James and Anthony Davis alone can provide more than enough interior pressure so instead of spending a large cap slot on another paint-based player, the Lakers reloaded — pun intended — with real perimeter threats and a proper defensive infrastructure.

A Focus on Now

With LeBron in street clothes and the Lakers fumbling away winnable games, time is ticking on this season. As of writing, the Lakers currently sit at the 10th seed and need to rack up results quickly if they want to get to the postseason safely.

Through almost two seasons of turmoil on and off the court, the Lakers have finally found stability in terms of performance and inside the locker room. With the 5th-best win percentage since the deadline, one can only imagine what this roster could’ve done with a full season to play with. But in the scenario they found themselves in now, the Lakers will have to earn their right in the postseason and as this fanbase knows too well after these last couple of seasons, nothing is promised for the purple and gold.

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There are quite a few trailing close behind. While also a result of no single runaway team (SRS is calculated relative to all other teams), the five closest trailing the Celtics – Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Pelicans, Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers – are all within 2 points in SRS of Boston. There was a more significant difference, for instance, between last year’s Celtics who lead the league and the 2021-22 Miami Heat, or the 2020-21 regular season leading Utah Jazz compared to sixth place Denver Nuggets.

The top is as clustered as it’s been, though we have more than half of the season left for one of these teams to make their mark. The closest recent historical precedent was 2010-11, when the Dallas Mavericks overcame having the seventh worst championship odds to take the title led by Dirk Nowitzki.

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Jeremiah Robinson-Earl did it all on both ends for Villanova in his 16-8-2 campaign that got his name called two Junes ago. But with a set of measurements and an on-ball package that both lose some of their punch in the pros, finding a role in the NBA has been largely up to his versatility and intelligence.

Defense

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl’s biggest defensive strengths are adaptations around his physical shortcomings – starting with his attentiveness. Standing at just 6’9” with a neutral wingspan and a 32-inch max vert, a second too late could mean an inch too short. Spend any defensive possession just watching JRE and you’ll see how active and instructive his head and hands are – even when he isn’t directly involved in the action.

When he is involved in the play, JRE has to do more with each movement than a normal seven footer would have to. Just as animals have evolved to make themselves artificially bigger in the wake of predators, JRE has learned deimatic bluffs to appear like he’s covering the ball-handler, the roller, the rim, and everything in between. He shrinks the horizontal gap between ball and man with outstretched arms whilst simultaneously moderating the downhill gap by alternating opened and closed stances – tactically luring the ball-handler further or feinting a commitment.

His nimble footwork and balance when backpedaling, zippy (yet vertically limited) load time to leave his feet, and precise hand-eye ball-tracking are the cherries on top of his pristine and purposeful technique. The latter of the two you can also see in more general help defense settings, enabling him to seemingly guard two players are once.

All of this combines to be one of the most impressive drop coverage techniques in the league – with JRE out-punching his size by holding ball-handlers to just 0.743 points per possessions in 144 defended pick and rolls this season, according to Synergy. These successful results have consolidated JRE’s cover-versatile repertoire into primarily a drop for the time being. However, you’ll still catch JRE aggressively switching or hedging-and-recovering on a situational basis – and those same perimeter chops are also on full display when tasked with 1-on-1 matchups vs big wings like Julius or Zion.

But even with this all considered, JRE’s height is ultimately the ceiling for his defense – quite literally. Averaging 0.7 blocks per 70 possessions, the fruits of JRE’s labor play the probability game – similar to the likes of Daniel Theis or Isaiah Stewart – decreasing opponents’ chances of scoring, but never eliminating them entirely.

Offense

Robinson-Earl was a bucket-getting swiss army knife in his final year of college – balancing above-80th percentile efficiency in each of post-ups, spot-ups, cuts, isos, and finishing as a screener. But without the hops to rim-run or the height to post-up against NBA athletes, that multi-bladed arsenal has dampened to a dulled set of butter knives. JRE has traded the majority of his on-ball usage for spot-up shooting, where he’s spent 44.8% of his non-putback opportunities in the halfcourt. Growing in confidence, he’s been hot and unhesitant from beyond the arc to start the year, nailing 38.2% of 68 attempts – although is likely closer to his career average of 36.1%.

As much as I hate how the “Will-He-Shoot?” question reduces talented players to a single dimension, reviving the vestiges of JRE’s collegiate on-ball game will rely almost entirely on his shot becoming respectable. As we’ve seen from late-bloomers Wendell Carter Jr. and Grant Williams, convincing hard closeouts creates driving lanes, and driving lanes create chances to reopen latent ball skills. Intriguing driving flashes do exist, but shooting is still JRE’s clear primary tendency off the catch – not to mention, he’s already been called on 3 traveling violations trying to put the ball on the ground. If not a shooter long-term, he’d likely be better off upping his dive/cut frequency on these chances like his teammates Wiggins, Giddey, and Kenrich.

A viable off-catch game would paint JRE more as a wing than a big on offense, which I think is worth exploring with him not offering a ton as a screener. Without a bulky-enough frame to set high-contact screens, or above-the-rim rolling pop, JRE struggles to create advantages in the two-man game. But as a smart decision-maker, he’s been able to reclaim some value slipping screens, quick pitching, or reversing the ball to the second side – which all interest me – but it’s difficult to make a living on those skills alone unless the offense is committed to putting the ball in your hands a lot, which I don’t think see a SGA-Giddey-led team doing.

But smart players find a way more often than not, and JRE has discovered transition as a new way to add value. His most recent development has been upping his transition frequency from 11.5% to 20.7% of his total scoring chances this year – a great compliment to fast-break wizard Giddey. And with his ball skills still somewhere in his bag, eventually JRE may be the one sparking the break.

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Entering his 2nd year with the Houston Rockets, Spanish Forward Usman Garuba seems to be finding his footing. The former 23rd pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has been anchoring the Rockets best lineups, and impacting the game with his energy and defensive intensity. Garuba has thrived so far this season, being in 4 of the top 6 lineups in net rating on the Rockets. Garuba is still very raw, and it is evident in his game. However, his impact on the court is also evident, and makes him one of the better defenders in the NBA.

Offense

Offensively, Garuba is still very rough around the edges. Although his lack of shooting and handling is also a concern, one of his biggest weak points is his inability to control the ball. Garuba often fumbled passes, allowing the ball to bounce off his hands and away from him. This became an issue with passes, rebounds, gathers… basically anything that involved putting both hands on the ball. His inability to hold onto the ball became a cause of struggle, although it has seemed improved so far this season.

Where Garuba has shown some improvements is in the short roll. Usman has a good feel for passes, although sometimes makes reads a tad too late. He will often miss reads to open guys behind him, as he still lacks the awareness and handling ability to turn around a find them. However, he is still a decent decision maker in these instances around the nail, and has shown flashes of being able to punish defenses in this low-volume connector role.

A necessary improvement in his game will be spot up shooting. Usman could easily play in a PJ Tucker style role offensively, if he can respectably hit the corner 3. He is a bit too short to be a consistent roll man, so this could be another route to success for Garuba offensively.

Defense

Where Garuba will make his career is on the defensive end. Garuba is a versatile defender, quick enough to stick in front of smaller wings, but long enough to guard some of the biggest big men in the league. He averages near 2 blocks and 2 steals per 70 possessions, and has stood out on many defensive metrics across the board. The tape shows this as well, as Garuba’s hustle and determination to disrupt plays has been one of the staples of the Rockets’ defense.

An adjustment he will need to make that has been slowly happening is his over-aggression defensively. In Spain, Garuba was allowed to use his body to lunge into balls, push guys around and utilize his size in a more brute manner. Now, in the NBA, he needs to learn how to be less physical. Although he hasn’t fouled as much as expected in the NBA, his over-aggression does occasionally lead to unnecessary fouls or over-playing plays, giving the team open looks. By being more disciplined, Garuba can become the all-defensive level player that many hoped for pre-draft.

Overall

Playing behind Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith, it might be hard for Garuba to get consistent minutes moving forward. With recent reports stating that Garuba will be playing behind Bruno Fernando as well in the rotation, Usman will likely have to fight for his minutes throughout the season. Luckily for him, his play-style relies on defense and hustle, two things that will help cement you into a rotation. With work on the shooting touch, helping him understand reads and improving his hands, Garuba could see himself being a game-winner on the court with his intensity and impact on the defensive end.

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How did they arrive to Swish Theory? Some caught the hoops bug from a high-flying dunker or undeniable bucket-getter. Others fell for unsung heroes, a compelling story or the dynamic strategy of the sport.

Let them tell you below, in their own words, about a specific player who influenced the way they see the game.

Mark Cheung – Contributor

Like in everything, I’ve had good role models and bad role models when it comes to basketball. Just as how you look back on your 12-year old self wondering, “how did I think – insert any pop punk band – was good”, I’ve had those formative moments of thinking Avery Bradley was setting the case for guard DPOYs, or that Jonas Jerebko was gonna be a pioneer of the stretch big era – yeah let’s forget about that one. I was a homer and my favorite players changed how I viewed the game. For better, or often for worse.

I finally saw the light in 2020. That was the year COVID hit, and amongst all of the other crazy things that happened at that time, somehow having more time to pay attention to the NBA draft was one of the more important things that happened to me. As someone who loved and consumed basketball all their life, this was all incredibly new to me. At the time, the NBA was a story of outcomes to me – like checking if my favorite player had a good box score. Analyzing the draft was a story of processes – how did those 16 points in the box score actually get there. I got sucked into this rabbit hole quick- from harmlessly customizing draft classes on NBA2k20 MyLeague, to then reading NBADraft.net scouting reports – all of a sudden, I was nose-deep into The Stepien.

The 2020 draft class became the foundation for how I think basketball. I learned what a skip pass was from guys like Tyrese, Killian, and LaMelo. LaMelo specifically was unlike anyone I’ve watched before – authoring many of my first real conceptions of feel, untraditional athleticism and flexibility and shiftiness, what goes into a good handle, attacking set versus unset defenses, and more. Onyeka and Wiseman taught me each type of pick and roll coverage, the differences between explosive and quick twitch athleticism, and the idea of load time. FSU’s Patrick Williams and Devin Vassell showed me what nail defense was, tagging the roll, 2.9’ing the paint, weakside rim protection and help defense. I could go down my whole board lol – but, in the end, I think any player can impact you and change how you see the game, it’s just when you realize it.

Neema Djavadzadeh – Contributor

Few things give me more life than putting myself through deep, excruciating anguish. Hence, my lifelong devotion to the Houston Rockets. Since I was a young Neema, the Rockets have brandished every wall in my bedroom. Whether it be the two foot tall Yao Ming bobblehead I still have today, or the poster of Tracy McGrady dunking THE EARTH that I still can’t find the image for to this day (and if anyone finds it please DM me). The Rockets, and their players, have had a dear place in my heart, and few made me want to rip it out and throw it in the Bayou the way Josh Smith would every time I’d watch him shoot a three. Despite this, Smith had long been my favorite player, and what started my love for the Point Forward archetype.

Let’s take it back one step further and say that there were two players who made me love basketball, aside from the natural answer of Kobe. Those two players were Steve Nash and Steve Francis (coincidentally, I think Steve is a subpar name). Seeing their handles, their ability to manipulate the court, and shooting prowess made me love the game, and the point guard position.

Until I realized there were 6’9” dudes who could (kinda) do the same thing. Josh Smith, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu, and many more all suddenly had me glued to my seat. In recent years, I’ve come to appreciate these players and what they bring to a team. Having a player with incredible vision at 6’8” or higher can really disrupt a defensive scheme and we see these players become more and more apparent in today’s game. Now you have legit point guards at 6’8” like Luka Doncic, or you have pseudo-Point Guards who can still run your offense like Dyson Daniels and Cade Cunningham. These players allow so many new avenues for your offense to run, and when those players are also lockdown defenders, they unlock a whole new level to your team. Smith was that for many years in Atlanta, and made me fall back in love with his game when he cooked the Clippers and CP0 to send them crying back home ringless when Smith was a Rocket. Even though he may not be the pioneer of the Point Forward, Josh Smith’s contribution to the archetype (and my love for it) can not be forgotten, including all his missed 3s.

Tyler Wilson – Contributor and Finishing Touch Podcast Co-Host

As a near life-long Spurs fan there is a laundry list of players over the years that have influenced my perception of the game and, quite literally, the name of my child. Fandom is a crazy, tribal thing that is both joyous and devastating, leading me to only one name. Kawhi Leonard.

No player has had a greater impact on my view of the game, from the steady grind of his development to his unbelievable defensive dominance and finally to his sudden injury and departure. On the court, watching a two-way terminator like Kawhi greatly influenced my view of what is important when building a balanced and competitive basketball team. The value of defensive cohesion and versatility cannot be overstated. I will never forget the overwhelming dread of watching those Spurs teams (with the greatest defensive player on the planet) aimlessly stumble around in their attempt to defend the effervescent guards of the mid-2010’s Western Conference. When a single weak link can sink your ship, it’s hard to survive with multiple on the court at once.

Beyond his defensive excellence and the inherently limited nature of that impact without a proper environment, Kawhi’s career made clear to me the insane standard of excellence in this league. The level at which you have to continually improve not only in on-court skill, but mental and emotional strength as well is enormous. It takes a special kind of person, not any skillset or athleticism, to make that possible. Projecting that from the tape of a singular college season is a flawed endeavor, a larger picture of someone’s propensity for growth is a necessity.

The memories of Kawhi in a Spurs uniform will always have a strange hue to them, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles. In the end, the whole debacle is what drove me into the NBA draft world and an entirely different viewpoint of the sport I already loved. It reinforced the brevity of championship contention and the fickle nature of relationships between player and franchise. Most importantly, it made clear just how thin the margins are when you are pursuing greatness. One error can send everything up in smoke, and time is of the essence.

Larry Golden – Co-Founder and Swish Theory Podcast Co-Host

I have to be honest, growing up I wasn’t a fan of the game as strongly as I am now. Before the obsession came for basketball, there was an obsession for Dragon Ball Z. I was a Krillin fan before any star on the basketball court. I remember after the last rerun of DBZ was over I started to flip through the channels and stopped once I saw these yellow jerseys pop off the screen. Those belonged to high school basketball powerhouse Oak Hill Academy, and that happened to be the night Carmelo Anthony pushed me into the game.

Beyond the loud jerseys, Carmelo’s game was just as loud. He was 6’7” with handle, athleticism and a sweet jumper. I couldn’t believe someone at that size was that smooth as an athlete. From that day forward I followed Melo wherever he went. His Syracuse year was unbelievable, averaging 22 points and 10 rebounds. That year in the Final Four versus Texas was a sight to see, as Royal Ivey and Brandon Mouton were no match for the clear top talent in all of college basketball that season. He finished the night with 33 points on 12-of-19 shooting while grabbing 14 rebounds. Melo would then take care of Captain Kirk Hinrich and Nick Collison of University of Kansas in the National Championship game.

After that season, I remember watching all of his highlights on YouTube and trying my best to mimic his shooting form. Shoveling snow off the driveway and putting jumpers up in the cold freezing winter in Chicago. There are a couple guys that helped shape my love for the game, but Carmelo Anthony is the one who pulled me away from watching Saiyans and pushing me to the hardwood.

David Sajdak – Contributor and Finishing Touch Podcast Co-Host

I grew up in Dallas, but the beginning of my obsession with basketball didn’t coincide with either Dirk Nowitzki’s prime or the championship season in 2011. Back then, soccer stole all my focus, and I only watched basketball in casual settings. Messi was young David’s hero, not Dirk (sorry to my fellow Mavs fans). Instead, the player that sparked my love for the NBA, and fundamentally changed how I viewed the game, was Dennis Smith Jr.

I remember flipping to a Mavs game (iirc it was this one vs the Wizards) one night just because it was on and being captivated by DSJs electric, high-flying play. From then on, I was locked in, watching almost every Mavs game and closely monitoring the upcoming draft, imagining what different players could look like next to Smith. As a reader of Mavs Moneyball, who had several writers singing his praises, I became Luka Doncic-pilled very quickly, catching highlights of the young Slovenian sensation whenever I could. When the Mavs dropped from the 3rd pick to the 5th on lottery day, I remember thinking that my hopes of seeing Luka in a Mavs uniform were all but dashed. We all know what happened next, and for half a season, I got to see my dream backcourt play together. Dennis’ time in Dallas came to an end sooner than I expected, but I’ve had the fortune to watch Luka Doncic play basketball for my favorite team ever since.

Over time, I’ve become more invested in the NBA and the draft, in particular, taking an interest in the analytical side of the game as a tool to help make sense of what happens on the court. I started learning about data visualization and data science in general during quarantine, and now I combine it along with my own analysis to write about the game that I love. As I get closer and closer to my goal of eventually making this my career, I think back to that November night every so often, when a Dennis Smith Jr. dunk forever changed the trajectory of my life.

Kris Amundsen – Co-Founder and Swish Theory Podcast Co-Host

I did not discover my love of basketball until very late in the game. I grew up in Southern California, catching pieces of major sporting events like the World Series or NBA Finals, but none of my family and friends had a true rooting interest in any specific sport, team, or player. Instead, it wasn’t until I was already in law school that a passion for basketball crept up on me unexpectedly. I had loosely followed the college basketball career of Jimmer Fredette because I graduated from BYU around the same time he ascended to national attention. After spending a few seasons with the Sacramento Kings, Fredette was traded mid-season in 2014 to the Chicago Bulls, and I decided to watch a few Bulls games to see if he was going to pan out in the NBA.

I don’t recall Jimmer playing very much, but I became captivated by the Bulls. Having lost Derrick Rose to another knee injury and Luol Deng to cheap ownership, the Bulls’ playoff hopes should have been toast with a 14-18 record on the day of the Deng trade. Instead, Joakim Noah and crew went on a 34-16 tear the rest of the year and Noah finished 4th in MVP voting. Watching Noah play was such an odd experience. He wasn’t super athletic, had an ugly-looking shot, and played with a wild demeanor. There was nothing aesthetically pleasing about his game. And he was incredible. I’d never seen a center do what he could do offensively, creating advantages out of seemingly nothing with his passing and (likely illegal) screens, but it was his ferocity and hustle that stood out the most. He was the kind of guy every fan wants on his team and every opposing fan loathes. I never thought he was the kind of player that could succeed in the NBA; now, I feel like every team could use a guy like him. He was the first player who changed the way I viewed basketball and the path to success in the NBA. I’m very grateful for those serendipitous circumstances that have led me to experience the rich beauty of this game since.

Oscar – Contributor

When the Knicks selected RJ Barrett 3rd overall in the 2019 draft, my expectations were through the roof. It was easy to put my weight behind this seemingly-total package prospect who had drawn internet attention for years and was coming from a blue blood school. Media members and fans alike anointed him as the savior of my Knicks, and his resume clearly looked the part! While RJ’s career in New York might not have turned out quite how I imagined to this point, his skillset and development arc were vital to my understanding and passion for basketball.

RJ was my introduction to thinking about basketball critically: the existence of microskills, the relationship between athletic profile and on-court skills, and the idea of “touch” as a latent skill are all things that I learned through watching and thinking about Barrett. RJ offered a different angle than the other Knicks centerpieces I had witnessed to that point. Melo was a midpost technician with out-of-this-world shotmaking skills, and Porzingis offered an intersection of rim protection and shooting that was unique to the league at the time. But Barrett’s sell was much less tangible, and relied on things like functional strength, rim rate, and mentality – traits that aren’t as widely discussed amongst casual basketball fans as skills like pull-up shooting or ball handling ability. RJ’s combination of youth career prestige, underlying holes in skillset, and brand of strength-based creation taught me how to think outside of the box as an evaluator.

Gannon Rice – Contributor

Growing up in Chicago, I’ve been watching the Bulls for as long as I can remember. The success of the early 2010s Bulls led by Keith Bogans were the first teams I recall being a fan of. Never will I forget my Taj Gibson starting agenda I had during those years. However, I was young, and was never able to appreciate how good those teams were, nor was I that big of a basketball fan then. Some years go by, and we’re sitting at the 2017 playoffs. These were odd times for the Bulls, as this was the post-Derrick Rose era led by a combination of old veterans and the up-and-coming Jimmy Butler. We squeaked into the playoffs as an eight seed, squared off with the Boston Celtics. I was more than surprised by what happened to start the series, and that was due to the wizardry of Rajon Rondo.

Entering the playoffs, my expectations were low, given we were the 8 seed and showcased pure mediocrity throughout the season. However, Rajon and the Bulls came to play. Game 1 wasn’t a dazzling performance by any means, but filled up the stat sheet with 12 points, 8 rebounds (5 offensive), 6 assists, along with 3 stocks to help the Bulls to make the series 1-0. In the second game, he dropped 11 points, 9 rebounds, 14 assists, and 5 steals to make the series 2-0. Rondo had me captivated by his crafty finishing, pesky defense, and complete control of the floor, wowing me with his exceptional passing ability. I still remember my excitement during the game watching Rondo tear apart the Celtics defense and nagging my parents about how awesome Stacey King is. Rajon re-ignited some hope for this rag-tag Bulls crew to be enshrined in history for defeating a 1 seed in the first round. Unfortunately, he got injured and missed the rest of the series.

The Bulls ended up losing the next 4 games without Rondo, and for the next 4 years were a laughing stock of the NBA. However, Rondo’s short, but sweet, playoff performance activated my passion for the game and remains as one of my favorite basketball memories.

Matt Powers – Co-Founder and Lead Editor

Going to go ahead and show my age up front by picking Dale Davis. Growing up I was taken by the late 90s/early 00s Pacers teams. While Reggie Miller led them to the Finals in 2000, it was the bruising Davis who caught my eye. Amid all the dazzling technique of the series as the Pacers eventually lost to the Kobe-Shaq Lakers in six games, it was how the relatively dull Davis found a perfect application for skillset.

While typically playing PF next to Rik Smits, the 7’4’’ Dunking Dutchman suffered consistent foul trouble against the bulldozer that was Shaq in his prime. Davis, while still giving up ample height and weight to Shaq, and despite his generally workman-like approach to the game, was a genius of physicality. The former 13th pick was able to keep the defense treading water against the dominant big man. With well-placed arm bars, quick feet, active hands and constant vigilance Davis was able to pester one of the best players the game has ever seen.

To me, and despite ultimately losing the series, Davis showed me, in his discipline and technique, how dynamic the game can be. What could be seen as weaknesses became immense strengths at the highest level of the game. And despite being a regular joe forgotten to the annals of history compared to Shaq’s immense legacy, Dale Davis hung with him and made him earn every inch.

Will Morris – Contributor

Isaiah Thomas helped spark my love for basketball. I’ve been a Celtics supporter for my entire life, but was only four years old when the squad took home the 2008 championship. By the time I became a true C’s fan, Pierce, Garnett, and all the players from that team had passed their primes. So, my first memories of supporting a “good” NBA team were between 2015 and 2017 when the King of the Fourth ran the show in Boston.

IT was the perfect hero for me: 60th pick in the draft, over a foot shorter than some of his opponents, and had already been counted out by two other organizations before arriving in Boston. His underdog story allowed me to hold on to my childish professional basketball dreams a few years longer than your typical middle school NBA fan. I look back on that time fondly, with memories of Tommy Heinsohn cheering “The Little Guy!” after each game-clinching shot. Every now and then I fire up his highlights, still finding myself amazed by his strength, change-of-pace ability, and pull-up shotmaking.

While Thomas’ time in Boston (and time as a true NBA star) was short, I credit him for helping me fall in love with the game.

Ross Pinsler – Co-Founder and Web/SEO

When I started watching basketball in the mid-2000s, my favorite team was not very good. At the time, the Bulls were mid-rebuild (literally, a mid rebuild) and the future of the franchise was up in the air. To a young and impressionable Ross, basketball was a sport built off of dominant iso scorers. A league predicated on star power. I wasn’t exactly wrong at the time.

Then, the Chicago Bulls drafted this guy named Derrick Rose. He only reinforced the image I had in my head of what an NBA superstar looked like. But this response isn’t actually about him. When Rose’s injury troubles began, a new star emerged in his place: Joakim Noah. 

An actual beast of a man who could not shoot or score like these other NBA stars. He was not built like the dominant centers of the day, and he did not care if he antagonized an entire rival fan base during a road playoff game. He reveled in it.

He looked… kinda funny. He shot free throws like he had never seen a basketball before. He said whatever came to his mind. But on the court, he was able to lead the team. He ran fast breaks like a point guard. Joakim Noah was the first player I heard the term “point-center” applied to. He paired those guard skills with a Defensive Player of the Year award and numerous points/blocks/assists triple doubles. 

To a younger me who was still navigating the ins and outs of the game, Joakim Noah broke the mold. He became the face of a franchise and an MVP candidate by being the ultimate glue guy, and making his money doing the dirty work. He didn’t need to hit a stepback jumper in your face to win a game. He’d rather be the one blocking it.

Charlie Cummings – Contributor

Though I can tell you all about those gloriously awful Nellie Ball Warriors teams and the We Believe Squad, all my learning came in retrospect. I didn’t grow up in a sports household; there would be a Giants game on if anything, but never any basketball. What first caught my eye was watching the Finals in 2009 and 2010, the two faceoffs between the Lakers and the Celtics. I hardly understood what I was seeing, but I knew that I loved watching Pau Gasol play.

A big who played inside and out, constantly used his body for screens and positioning, could pass from almost any angle, and finish with authority as well as he could hit a pick-and-pop jumper. A primal scream here and there was all too endearing to my middle school ears. I was beginning to understand some parts of the game, but most importantly I was starting to get hooked.

Fast forward to the Spurs-Heat Finals. I had begun following the Warriors in earnest like a lot of my friends in years prior, but they had little identity at the time. What I really loved watching was how those San Antonio teams worked as a complete unit. They made all the right passes, took the right shots, always kept things together no matter who they faced. But it was Tim Duncan who really evolved my understanding of the game.

He combined all of the offensive aspects I loved about watching Pau with impeccable defense and a calm demeanor. Watching Duncan taught me the importance of positioning, footwork, defensive organization, and how to execute in every defensive facet possible. It opened my eyes to the machinations of the game, and how much existed under the surface that I hadn’t even begun to understand.

Before that, I had thought that dominance was flashy, loud, athletic. Duncan helped me grasp how much of dominance comes from preparation, study, and mental processing. He flipped how I saw basketball upside down, and I could never look at it the same.

Years later, watching players Draymond Green and LeBron James remind me of how much more there is to learn about the dynamics on the floor. But ultimately, that impression of Duncan showed me what a wealth of knowledge is available in basketball, and rooted deep in me a desire to understand as much as I could about the game I love.

The post Roundtable: Swish Inspiration appeared first on Swish Theory.

The date is October 31st, 1986. 

The Oprah Winfrey Show had just begun its first season on television, gas was $0.89/gallon, Europe was grappling with the environmental disaster of the Chernobyl nuclear plant meltdown and the United States was still recovering from the shock and horror of the Challenger explosion broadcast live on National Television. 

This was the last time the San Antonio Spurs began an NBA season in a situation like the one they currently find themselves in. There was little reason for hope entering the year, the team had nothing resembling a star on their roster and the road to acquiring one went only one way, lottery luck. The team finished the year 28-54 with the 4th worst record in the league before finding themselves in the most fortuitous of situations, at the top of the draft with a generationally talented big man waiting to hear his name called. 

The selection of David Robinson changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next 30 years, even if he didn’t debut in the league until 1989. In the two years after his selection the team continued to lose but hope remained on the horizon, sailing the ocean blue aboard the deck of the USS Stormes. 

The first seven years of the Robinson-led Spurs were prosperous yet ultimately futile on their journey towards title contention. It wasn’t until the 1996-97 season where the team suffered a rash of injuries that the Spurs found themself in the lottery race once again, culminating in an unprecedented opportunity to add another franchise cornerstone to their existing core. The rest is now, quite literally, basketball history. 

Here we are 36 years later, and the team has finally found their way back to where they started, entering a season where the definition of success is intertwined with a random game of chance.  While the immediate outlook for this team may appear bleak, the current foundation of this Spurs roster is uniquely constructed for one of the more interesting tanking experiments in recent memory. This roster is not lacking in developmental talent nor is it lacking in youth. There are pieces currently on this roster that may prove to be invaluable to a competitive Spurs team in the future. First, they need to find their North Star, a talent the team can revolve around on their road back to contention.

Many teams entering a rebuild strip the team down to the studs and send off their parts to the highest bidder. From the Process 76ers to the Sam Presti Thunder, rebuilds have taken a new shape: get rid of everything that isn’t tied down and accumulate as much draft equity as possible.    

The Spurs are trying to walk the thin line between a total tear-down and a soft reboot, a decision that could prove to be fortuitous with the help of a little lottery luck. This team has roster depth 2 through 5 that few other tanking teams in the league have with young starting-caliber players across every position. With modern wings, versatile defenders, perimeter shooters and connective pieces San Antonio has many of the parts required to build a competitive team. The roster is flush with complimentary pieces that still have room for substantive growth. What they don’t have at this moment in time is a creator, someone they can build their roster around, a star to give them their identity. 

San Antonio was one of the worst teams in the clutch last season, even with Dejounte Murray leading the charge. They had very few avenues to create easy offense when they needed it, resulting in heartbreaking losses and blown leads all throughout the 2021-22 season. Teams can remain competitive the first 46 minutes of a game through scheme and effort but when the going gets tough in the final minutes of a close game you need someone to put the ball in the hoop. Not having that piece may be the single most valuable tool for a team in the tank race. 

In this piece I will be diving into each and every player on the roster and looking at not only how they project to perform this season but the role they play in the Spurs rebuild as a whole. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle that already exist on this roster, they just need to be put into their proper place.

Every roster needs a keystone, a foundational piece to build around, but what happens if the rest of the structure is already in place by the time it arrives? It’s time to start building.      

https://open.spotify.com/track/232OU9BBulVY9PrCBH778j?si=b7de6b2d15344556

When Opportunity Rings

This summer has had a strange feeling to it, in many ways the final steps of a journey that began over 4 years ago.

On a larger scale, this is the inevitable end that we first saw glimpses of back in 2011 when the Spurs lost a physical first– round series against the Grizzlies. The team finished the regular season at 61-21, enough to earn the top seed in the West but father time began to rear its head, resulting in 1 of only 5 1-8 seed upsets in NBA history. Manu was struggling to stay on the court consistently, Tim was sauntering around with a bad leg and Tony wasn’t enough to keep the championship dreams afloat.

That team was granted an extension on their tanking deadline by adding a budding superstar in Kawhi Leonard, but a state of perpetual contention was not meant to be. The team was able to rally around their existing structure to build one of the most euphoric sports moments I will ever experience. Their title season in 2014 was as much about the existing Big 3 as it was their newest superstar, creating an enormous expectation even after the existing pillars began to fall. As the Big 3 rode off into the sunset, the team continued to build for contention, but unbeknownst to them a certain Slim Reaper was looking to change teams, ultimately creating the most overwhelming collection of talent in NBA history. The way was shut.

There just wasn’t enough in the cupboard after two decades of contention. The team had a true-blue star but little else to build around in the future. Ultimately, it was not enough to retain their greatest developmental success story.

When Kawhi forced his way out of San Antonio the trade market looked much different than it does today. Teams held on to first– round picks, even protected ones, like precious family heirlooms. Jimmy Butler was traded for Dario Saric and Robert Covington; Paul George was traded for Victor Oladipo and a fledgling Domantas Sabonis with no first-round picks conveyed in either deal.

The Kawhi trade was the end of an era, the last star trade of a buyer’s market. Conditions then shifted to favor sellers by the fortunate circumstances bestowed upon OKC and New Orleans, along with the remarkable success of the Kawhi trade for Toronto.

That trade, even considering the trade environment of the time, was disappointing. This is not to say the package received was lacking value or was even a poor deal given what was available. Reports throughout the trade saga and after confirmed Boston would not trade either of Brown or Tatum, the Lakers would not trade Lonzo or Ingram, the Clippers would only give up Tobias Harris and one of their firsts (they owned both 12+13), and that was just about the entire market. The deal itself was not bad given the options out there, but it was bad in that it delayed the inevitable. It avoided making the tough but necessary decision to rebuild.

The team toiled in mediocrity every season since, but with each passing year they drew closer and closer to a true rebuild. This mini-era started with a hard fought seven-game series against the Nuggets in 2019 and has gone downhill ever since. They were never able to get over the play-in hump due to a roster construction that simply lacked the two-way players necessary for making a real playoff run.

Now, here we are after four years of chasing playoff (or play-in) appearances with nary a whiff of contention. Yet, the future is as bright and exciting as we have seen since an ill-fated encounter with the Georgian who shall not be named. What is different this time around in the wake of a franchise altering trade? Despite the same feeling of angst over the loss of a homegrown star, this time a direction was firmly decided upon, and the compensation was much more in line with the value of the player being traded. San Antonio was finally able to reap the rewards of the trade market they helped to create. 

There is a very real possibility that owning the Atlanta draft from 2025-2027 (two unprotected firsts and an unprotected swap) becomes one of the highest valued trade assets on the market. Dejounte has two years remaining on his deal, and if things don’t go according to plan the situation in Atlanta could get ugly fast.

Now there is certainly the chance those picks end up being in the late 20s and Atlanta is a genuine contender in perpetuity, but that is far from set in stone. Either way, the Spurs will have the draft assets needed to make nearly any move they deem necessary over the next few years. They own all their firsts, the 2025 protected first from Chicago, 2023 protected first from Charlotte and the above-mentioned Atlanta picks. Their value to San Antonio is more than just what they will become, it is about the flexibility it grants them before they even convey.

For the first time since 1997 the Spurs will enter the great abyss of the tank race, and while the roster may lack an MVP level talent a la David Robinson, there are a few similarities I find to be important when analyzing the path forward for the club. There is plenty of young talent on this roster already as the team has spent the last four years drafting and developing players who should have long careers in the league. Despite this collection of talent San Antonio may end up with the worst record in the league and a chance at landing a franchise altering talent.

This is a 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs encyclopedia: we will be covering anything and everything you need to know about one of the league’s premier franchises finally turning the page and entering the tank race. Can a team be built to lose and built to rebound at the same time? Let’s find out.  

Waiting in the Wings

This current roster is bereft of “star” talent and is most likely going to finish in the bottom five of the standings this year. While the idea of a full blown rebuild may sound bleak to some, the foundation is laid for a quicker turnaround than one might expect. Even with Dejounte this team lacked a straw that truly stirred the drink, needing a true 1A to push them over the play-in hump. This draft is as good as any to find that piece, and the team’s decision to maximize their chances of doing so by trading the one true advantage creator on the roster is, by all accounts, the best opportunity the Spurs have to create a true contender.

Most rebuilds are a multi-year project as the team is stripped down to the studs to begin the painstaking process of starting from scratch. Fortunately for San Antonio there are pieces on the roster that project as long-term impact rotation players, pieces that should easily fit on the next great Spurs team, all while lacking the necessary skills to drag this team out of the doldrums for this upcoming season.

Each of the players in this section are by no means lacking upside, but their existing skill sets are more conducive to success when playing off a star. Their importance to this team is not tied to the small percentage of outcomes where they themselves become a star but in their ability to jump-start the journey back to respectability once one is added. This isn’t to undersell their potential, any one of these guys could hit in a franchise altering way, but even if they were to do so their growth shouldn’t drastically change the outlook of the team this season.  These four should allow the Spurs to have their tanking cake and eat it too. 

Keldon Johnson

The case for growth from Keldon is a simple, albeit difficult one. He played much of last year in an off-ball role with relatively limited opportunity to explore the studio space with the ball in his hands. Coming off a four-year $80 million extension there will be a much greater investment in Keldon moving forward, both financially and developmentally.

In his one season with the Austin Spurs, Keldon looked like a different player, running a ton of pick and rolls and playing as the primary scoring option for the team. He scored 20 points a game while shooting 60% on 2s. He was a battering ram getting to the rim, stronger than anyone he came across even as a 19-year-old rookie playing against grown men. Keldon wasn’t a proactive playmaker, but he showed the ability to make basic reads out of ball-screen actions, an area in which he has continued to improve in San Antonio despite an increased difficulty to get easy buckets.  

Keldon’s on-ball creation has not translated to the next level as he has experienced more than a few issues finishing in traffic and dealing with contests from true rim protectors. It hasn’t been the smoothest sailing within the arc, but his growth shooting the ball this season was nothing short of remarkable. If he is forcing real closeouts he becomes an entirely different type of offensive weapon, and one that would fit with nearly any lineup construction in the league.

The path forward looks a lot cleaner now that the shot has started to fall. Any improvement in off-the-dribble shot creation or finishing craft could push him into fringe All-Star consideration. His defensive impact certainly has a long way to go, particularly in terms of rotational awareness, but he is at the very least able to bang with bigger forwards and has shown flashes of promise guarding on the perimeter. He doesn’t have the instincts or measurables of a true impact defender but getting to the point where he is no longer negatively impactful feels well within the realm of possibility. 

Keldon entered camp with a dislocated shoulder and a slimmer frame, telling media he dropped over 20 pounds this off-season. That is an enormous development that should not be understated when projecting his role on this team and beyond. He has never been the fleetest of foot on either end, shedding this weight could help him on both in terms of on-ball creation and defensive impact. Keldon is a natural wing and seeing the front office, coaching staff and player aligned on that front is an overwhelmingly positive thing. If he can improve his first step, shiftiness or defensive mobility he could be in store for a larger growth leap than originally anticipated.

At this point in time Keldon is ideally suited as a secondary scorer, someone who feasts off advantages created for him. There is a chance he blossoms into a true initiator, but Keldon doesn’t need that high of an outcome to remain valuable. He will look great next to any star he plays with through his competitive nature, floor spacing and fearlessness attacking closeouts. Keldon doesn’t need to be the star of the team, but he may need one beside him to truly flourish. 

Devin Vassell

The impact Devin brings goes much further than efficiency numbers or the box score. He hasn’t put up enormous stats offensively and in reality, hasn’t even shot that well considering his billing entering the league. What he has done is provide an ideal complementary skill set for any starting five in basketball. He isn’t a lock-down defender on the ball, but he is more than adequate defending 1-3 while possessing great instincts as a help defender on the perimeter and at times as a secondary or tertiary rim protector.

His defensive skillet is an ideal fit in any positive context as he works as a catalyst that is more effective when surrounded with the proper ingredients. Unfortunately, he did not have said ideal context in San Antonio playing next to both Keldon and Doug McDermott but that may be beginning to change with the roster additions the team made this summer.

On the offensive end, Vassell again provides a tailor-made complementary skill set with his ability to space the floor, shoot off movement and keep the ball moving. There have been real flashes of shot-making off the bounce and even some fun passing when getting to initiate some of the offense, but his ability to get to and finish around the rim has been less than stellar. With an increased role in the offense and a large burden on-ball we should learn a lot about Devin’s game this season. His shot creation package deserves more opportunity for growth.

While there is real upside here on both sides of the ball, what makes Vassell such a valuable cog in the rebuild is that there are a variety of potential outcomes where he provides a positive impact.  As is, Devin is a positive spacing the floor in spot-up and movement situations while providing impactful team defense. If he shows any improvement in his handle, allowing him to provide additional rim pressure or shot creation, the value add becomes exponentially greater. Conquer the complex art of screen navigation? Now we might have something special.

Vassell will have a greater impact on-court as the pieces around him improve in quality due to his already proficient complementary skill set. Couple that with his potential on both ends of the court and there are few players on this roster better suited to be a foundational piece of this rebuild going forward. Vassell should see a major leap in his usage next season, and we will get a clearer picture as to what his future holds. Regardless of how this season goes, Vassell will be an important part of the puzzle this front office is looking to build.  

Jeremy Sochan

Drafting Sochan at ninth overall this season was hardly surprising given his projected fit with the existing young core. This team has desperately needed a positive defensive presence at the four for as long as I can remember and they finally took the plunge with their first top-10 pick this millennia.

Sochan was relatively unheralded entering his freshman year at Baylor, ranking outside of the top 100 in his recruiting class. He jumped on to the draft scene early in the season with impressive displays guarding in space, rotating on the perimeter, initiating sets and even hitting a few turnaround jumpers.

The offense has a very long way to go, but there is reason for hope. Jeremy Sochan is anything but bashful and his confidence to continue to put up shots and play hard even when the ball isn’t going through the hoop will go a long way. It will take a while before he can score at any kind of an impactful level, if ever, but in the meantime his existing skill set will allow him to play as a connector on both ends. He makes quick decisions with the ball, reads the court well and (in what will almost certainly make him a fan favorite from day one), plays with competitiveness and effort every second he is on the court.

He is aggressive when crashing the glass, can switch onto both smaller and larger players while intuitively knowing where to be at all times. What he lacks in run and jump athleticism he makes up for in lateral quickness and anticipation. The Spurs started Keldon and Doug McDermott together for much of this season and it led to some atrocious defensive results. Sochan offers a different look, someone at the forward spot whose defensive motor never stops, finding ways to win battles somewhere in the margins.

Despite being surrounded by players like Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl, the weight of two negative defenders playing together at the forward spots all but sunk the chances of an above average defense. The position is too valuable defensively to get nothing from it and adding Sochan should help tremendously. His rotational soundness and competitive nature should be synergistic playing next to Keldon and Devin rather than the previous parasitic roster construct.  Even if the scoring never truly comes around, Sochan should have no problem seeing the court and providing a positive impact for the entirety of his career in San Antonio.

What a Young Vet Brings

While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.

There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high. 

There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.   

While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.

There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high. 

There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.   

Jakob Poeltl

Jakob has been solid since the day he arrived in San Antonio. Not the longest or most explosive athlete, Poeltl is another guy who wins with anticipation and awareness. His play as a roller this year was encouraging; he may struggle at the line but is impressive finishing around the basket for someone who is primarily a below the rim finisher.

What interests me most about Jakob has been his passing growth in recent years. He averaged nearly 3 assists a game this year and in retrospect that number feels low.  Jakob was one of the league leaders in touches at the elbow last season and was consistently asked to read the floor and make smart decisions with the ball. Jakob was much more of a fulcrum for the offense than years past and the results were largely positive. He made great passes to shooters as a roll man and as a hub at the top of the key throughout the year.

While he isn’t getting guarded as a shooter, allowing him to run a  DHO forces his man to stretch out to Jakob or risk a wide open three with no avenue to contest.  Once that happens, he can make passes or even put the ball on the deck and beat his man to the rim when given proper spacing.  Seeing a seven-footer dribble into a body-contorting layup isn’t something you see every day and offers a unique avenue for usage. It’s a fun way to try and space the floor with a center who can’t shoot, and it helps open up the court for his passing beyond simply finding the shooter involved in the DHO.

With the recent departures of Derrick White, Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker, this team has lost an enormous chunk of playmaking. Leaning on a steady vet presence like Jakob to create offense in a more nontraditional way may be the best option for creating a system functional enough to help develop the young wings on the roster.

Beyond his current fit on the court, Jakob is someone I hope sticks around through the rebuild. Yes, he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but he will be entering a marketplace where big men of his caliber make a modest amount more than the mid-level but rarely anything approaching $20 million/year. I would be doing anything and everything I could to extend him before the season starts (4/51 is roughly the max they can offer him in an extension this off-season). A deal in the ballpark of 4/50 to 4/65 seems like a workable construct for both sides.  Despite his inability to shoot the ball Jakob is an above average starting center and should continue to be through the life of his next contract.

Even if the team were to win the lottery and draft Victor Wembanyama, Poeltl would fill a valuable role on the team. Any team that drafts Victor next year will make keeping him healthy a priority. Nobody is going to trot Wemby out as a 19-year-old and ask him to guard true centers night in and night out as there is no benefit to putting him through that kind of physical grind. On the offensive end the fit should be just as smooth if the shot continues to improve, and his recent performance overseas certainly helps that potentiality. 

Jakob is never going to be so good he wins you too many games or stands in the way of a young prospect getting minutes, but he is good enough to be a driving force to continuity and competence on both sides of the ball. That is exactly the kind of cost controlled 26-year-old I want around my rebuilding team. I would understand trading him to continue adding future assets, but it would take more than a late 1st round pick for me to feel comfortable moving him and I don’t see that kind of package on the market this season. 

You don’t have to sell every good basketball player in a rebuild and certainly not players that still fit in your existing timeline.  Having an above average starting center already in place will go a long way in creating a competent structure on this roster throughout the rebuilding process.

Tre Jones

Jones, a second-round pick entering the final season of his 3-year contract, would be my guess for who is spearheading the Spurs offense come October.

If there is one thing this team is lacking, it is rim pressure. While Vassell has shown an ability to create some offense off the bounce it has resulted in almost exclusively contested dribble jumpers. White and Murray were the only two Spurs to consistently self-create rim attempts last year; with both gone the team will need someone to initiate sets and get two feet in the paint for their drive-and-kick offensive system to have any semblance of success. Despite his relatively diminutive frame, Tre is the best bet to provide that on a consistent basis this season.

Unlike anyone else on this roster, Tre has spent his entire life playing point and running an offense. He was an All-American at Duke his sophomore year where he was one of the best players in the country. At the pro level he played well, leading the team in Austin his rookie season before slowly earning a spot in the rotation this year, filling in the injury gaps as they arose.

Tre isn’t going to be draining pull-up jumpers or leading the team in scoring, but the skillset he provides fits like a glove with what this roster needs. He is on the smaller side but is incredibly quick with more than enough craft getting to and finishing at the rim, putting defenses into rotation and getting the ball moving around the perimeter. Tre finished the year with a nearly 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, a remarkable number that placed him at 4^th in the entire league. He very rarely makes poor decisions with the ball in his hands and has done an excellent job of running the offense when given the chance, particularly in transition settings.

At his best, Tre is the perfect game manager PG that should find a role as a third guard on any roster. The shooting needs to come along but there is reason to be optimistic. He has good touch on his floater in the lane, was a good mid-range shooter in college and is a career 80% FT shooter. He doesn’t have to create threes off the bounce consistently, but if he can punish defenders for going under screens even occasionally, that would be a huge win for his on-court impact.

On the defensive side of the ball Jones has the lateral quickness and pesky hands to be an impactful defender at the point of attack but his screen navigation will need to take major strides for that to truly come to fruition. He has some cool moments sticking his hands in and disrupting ball handlers but too often runs directly into screens or ends up trailing the ball handler with no avenue to disrupt the play. Given his smaller frame and limited wingspan, recovering to contest from behind isn’t an option. For Jones to truly be a good point-of-attack defender he will need to be excellent slithering through screens and staying with ball-handlers. Whether that is in the cards remains to be seen, but it is one thing I will be looking for as the season kicks into gear.

Tre strikes me as someone who should be on this team for the foreseeable future. He is entering his third year in the league but has made it into this “Young Vet” section by the soundness of his game and the steadying presence he should provide to this young core. He will be a useful rotation piece as a bench guard for a good team one day but in the meantime his ball security, rim pressure and heady defense make him a great fit alongside any of the young wings on the roster. Players need proper context in order to develop and while Tre may not project as the long-term answer to “Who is the Point Guard of the future?” question, his steady-handed competence should help put Keldon, Devin and Sochan in a better developmental context this season.

Isaiah Roby

Roby was an intriguing addition to the roster this off-season. He had a solid run with OKC the past two years and is the kind of player I have been wanting the Spurs to sign for nearly a decade.

NBA defense is a complicated mess of variables that can be difficult to distinguish from one another, but if one thing has proven true in San Antonio over the last four years it is that having rim protection and point of attack defense alone is not enough to build a playoff caliber defense.

Dejounte and Derrick White made up what was possibly the best defensive backcourt in the league to begin last season with Jakob Poeltl manning the paint as a Top-10 rim protector, but even with those three on the court the Spurs struggled to cobble together a league average defense. These three musketeers could not do the job alone and ultimately were sunk by significantly below league average forward defense. It didn’t help they lacked a good option for rolling out small-ball lineups to try and keep up offensively.

Roby may not solve all these issues and by no means is he a flawless defensive player, but he does offer a package of skills this team has desperately needed for a long time. He is an athletic forward who thrived the past two years playing at the five in small ball lineups. OKC was by no means a winning context, but he was far and away their best option at the center spot for a few different reasons.

Roby moves incredibly well for someone his size. His flexibility on drives was impressive and he had flashes of finishing craft around the hoop. Most NBA big men cannot keep up with him on the perimeter and he was able to use his handle to get to the rim in advantageous situations. He became a much more effective shooter from beyond the arc this year and that progress will need to continue in the Lone Star State for him to have a similar offensive impact.

He’s shown an ability to pass out of the short-roll and was largely successful as a dive man playing in OKC. He has a size disadvantage playing at the five, but his length and athleticism help make up for the size mismatch when finishing in the paint. He isn’t someone I would ever want starting at the five, but he should allow for the team to throw out some funky bench lineups with defensive versatility, something San Antonio has been unable to do in the recent past.

Roby is a decent rim protector, event creator and rebounder for a hybrid big and his athleticism should allow for some interesting usage on the defensive side of the floor. In the grand scheme of things, he was put in a good situation to develop on-court in OKC but, due to their roster constraints, was put in some compromising positions he shouldn’t have to deal with on a more complete roster. Roby is the kind of guy I love having around in a rebuild; young and affordable with an understanding for the game and how to use his body that can translate in a multitude of lineups. He isn’t someone I would project to start for the next good Spurs team, but I think he has more than proved to be a capable rotation piece at the NBA level. Having functional athletes at the forward spot is an incredibly important aspect of teambuilding and this off-season showed a newfound commitment to finding those missing pieces. The Spurs didn’t morph into the Toronto Raptors overnight but adding multiple players that can feasibly guard opposing 4s is an enormous step toward building an effective defense in the future.

Taking Upside Swings

San Antonio entered the draft this year with three first- round picks, something I would not have believed to start the season. While the team took a safer approach with their first pick in taking Jeremy Sochan, they swung for the fences with their next two selections. Those picks, coupled with a heady signing last off-season, will round out this upside swing section. 

The success of the rebuild goes beyond the development of these three, but it could look drastically different if even one is able to reach a higher-end outcome. Taking calculated risks is the name of the game for small market teams with little avenue to acquire a star in the free agent market. While they are much more of a gamble than a sure thing, sometimes all you need is a little luck.

Malaki Branham

Branham was one of the names rising up draft boards as the college season ended and for good reason.  He had one of the most efficient freshman seasons scoring the basketball in recent memory at 14 points per game with shooting splits of 50/42/83.  Be it out of isolation, running a pick and roll or spotting up on the perimeter, Branham put the ball in the hoop at an eye-catching rate, consistently torching Big 10 defenses the second half of the season.

Upside is an interesting and complicated term to define. Many people gravitate towards athleticism when talking about players who have substantial growth potential, but it is rarely that simple. I tend to look towards players who have outlier indicators, from athleticism to coordination to shooting touch. Outlier growth potential is the proverbial Waldo for which you are searching when projecting who could outperform their draft position. Branham’s touch fits the bill, as few players enter the league with such a positive shooting projection. Branham’s ability to shoot, regardless of the contest, offers the potential for unexpected growth..

He is going to shoot the ball, but to what degree? Will he develop into someone who can consistently create his own shot? Is he going to be able to hit pull up threes with regularity? Branham’s touch is such an outlier it is hard not to project development in other areas. Does the touch forebode future handle development? There allure of pull-up shot making potential is there, but there will need to be some amount of unexpected improvement in his handle.

There are two things I will be looking for this season when watching Branham, starting with the growth of his handle. It was functional at the college level for what he was asked to do but he very rarely self-created attempts at the rim and doesn’t have much of a space creation bag. Is he going to be able to dribble against NBA level defenders closing out to his jumper? Will he be able to run a pick and roll without losing control of the ball from a well-timed dig? Is he going to be able to operate in confined spaces?

Handle development is not something that comes overnight but it is possible with proper time and attention. For Branham to hit his highest-level outcomes he is going to need to not only create space for jumper but create advantages for others. He is an effective and willing passer, but passing windows close when you don’t put the defense into rotation. If his creation doesn’t improve to that level, he should still be a positive offensive player simply from the floor spacing he provides.   

The last question revolves around his defensive impact. He was okay defending in isolation at Ohio State but really struggled to navigate screens both on and off-ball. If the potential for becoming an on-ball creator offensively begins to look less likely he will need to become an average defender at worst to be a high impact rotation piece. Unless we are talking about the elite, offensive specialists need to have some amount of defensive impact to truly contribute to winning basketball, particularly in a playoff setting. Branham has a skill set that could translate into a productive complimentary role with time, but will he have the necessary growth defensively to make that worthwhile for his team? 

Blake Wesley

Watching Notre Dame basketball this season was quite the roller coaster, an up and down experience captained by one Blake Wesley. Outside of Jaden Ivey there may not have been anyone else in this class that was as effective at getting into the paint as Wesley. Amongst High-Major athletes that attempted at least 150 shots at the rim last season Wesley had the 10^th lowest assisted percentage at 27%. There is no skill more important to a competent NBA offense than rim pressure, something this current Spurs roster exceedingly lacks.

Wesley is an interesting fit alongside Devin Vassell as he provides a needed downhill spark. The only issue with his college tape was how the ball just did not go through the hoop as often as you would like, and with a shooting split of 47/30/66, that may be an understatement. Wesley ranked second to last in rim efficiency amongst all drafted players, shooting a paltry 51.2%.

This season is going to be an incredibly interesting one for Wesley and where he spends most of his time will be telling as to how the team views his starting point. This roster needs someone with his ability to get to the rim and force defensive rotations but more than that, they need an offensive system that is conducive to positive development for their young wings. 

Wesley was a whirlwind of energy at Notre Dame and while it led to some astounding highlights there is reason to wonder how well it immediately translates to NBA basketball. His shot is going to require serious refinement over the next few years, but he is not shy about getting up shots despite his relative inefficiency. Giving the keys to Wesley is an interesting proposition that would likely help the Spurs towards their goal of obtaining the highest possible draft pick, but it may not be best for his development or the teammates around him.

Decision making is going to make or break Wesley’s time here in San Antonio; if he can be trusted to find open teammates and trim the fat from his shot diet he will fit like a glove in this offensive system. Wesley’s development as a creator is the biggest variable in the direction of this rebuild. If he hits, the team has their point guard of the future and one that fits seamlessly with their surrounding talent. If not, it may be difficult for him to find a consistent spot in the rotation moving forward, even on a rebuilding team.

Wesley’s on-court projected impact is buoyed by his defensive effort and intensity. Very few guards with his level of usage and lack of experience can provide a positive impact on the defensive end, making his season at Notre Dame all the more impressive. There are certainly some loose moments, but his lateral athleticism, length and anticipation allow him to disrupt an offense in a variety of ways. He will need to grow in terms of consistency, but if he is able to continue to grow, we may be looking at the next great Spurs defender at the point guard spot, following in the footsteps of the often-comped Dejounte Murray.

I am a Wesley believer and hope he gets time this year to work through some of the kinks, even if that time is best spent in Austin rather than San Antonio. He’s the kind of upside swing this team needed to take, and fortunately the Spurs have a wealth of experience in developing skinny, lightning quick guards with a penchant for flashy highlights. The necessary growth is going to take time and will be a bumpy road at times, but the confidence and energy that Wesley exudes on the court should help him to weather the storms of his development path.

Zach Collins

Collins was signed in San Antonio last off-season in a deal that was relatively controversial at the time. Still only 23, the former top 10 pick had his career derailed by injuries and spent nearly 2 full seasons on the sidelines before suiting up for the team midway through last season. His first year in San Antonio was not particularly effective due to the sheer amount of rust that needed to be worked off, but the flashes were there of what once made him one of the more intriguing young big men in the game.

Collins has the potential to be versatile on both ends of the court, stretching the floor on offense and making good passing reads while defending the rim and switching out on to the perimeter. The only problem is, he didn’t truly excel in any of these areas last year. In fact, every area will need serious improvement to become functional at an NBA level. 

As we enter the new season the thing I will be watching most closely is his how his body has recovered. Staying healthy will remain a concern for the foreseeable future, but beyond that, is he going to look more comfortable moving out on the court?  He seemed to have lost some of his lateral quickness after recovering from a series of lower body injuries, but with a fully healthy off-season there is hope he could return closer to his previous form.

His shot from the perimeter is another area that will need to make strides over the off-season. Collins is not a particularly efficient scorer in the paint for someone of his size and for him to have a positive offensive impact it would help to be a viable threat from distance. Having a center that can legitimately space the floor is worth its weight in gold, especially when trying to open the floor for more offensively limited wings and guards, but that is a high bar to reach.

Will Collins ever be able to shoot well enough to stretch opposing bigs away from the rim? The answer to that is a resounding “maybe,” although it is admittedly less likely to happen than the inverse. The shot looks good mechanically but there is a serious lack of confidence taking it that may be more indicative of his actual level as a shooter. It could happen, but there is a reason shooting centers are such a valuable resource. There just aren’t many players in the league who can do it at an impactful level. 

Collins is the ultimate second draft upside swing, if he is able to find his way back to the developmental arc he flashed in Portland it changes the entire dynamic of the roster.  It would allow for the team to shop Jakob Poeltl with the knowledge of having a feasible replacement already in house, a replacement with the potential to allow for more versatile schemes on both ends of the court.  By no means is that the likely outcome, but the potential reward makes the gamble all the more palatable. 

Valuing Short Term Flings

These guys aren’t going to be here when the Spurs exit their rebuild and start to make a run at the playoffs, but they still offer value to this team in the immediate. Having steady vets to set the tone for a young team is incredibly important for any rebuild and this one is no different.  

There is some amount of positional overlap with the vets in this section and the young guys the team is looking to develop. Their presence may limit the amount of playing time for some of the prospects on the roster, but they are not without worth to this team or, hopefully one day, on the trade market.

Doug McDermott

There is certainly value to having someone like McDermott on a team that is lacking scoring punch, even if his fit next to Keldon in the frontcourt is questionable at best. From the jump last year, you could tell the team was hell-bent on heavily involving McDermott in the offense and with that came mixed results. He endured a few brutal cold spells shooting from the floor but still ended the year at over 42% from three, an impressive number given how inconsistent it felt during the season.

He provided some much needed spacing early in the year, but his offensive impact did not make up for his negative defensive contributions. McDermott is not particularly good attacking the glass on either end of the court and was put in a TON of ball screen actions by opposing offenses. He provided a target for teams to attack both in space and off screens while the surrounding roster lacked the necessary help on the wings needed to make up for it. A lineup with Keldon and Doug at the forward spots simply did not get it done this year and while he does offer a release valve for an offense stuck in a rut, I would hope we see less of that combination in the coming season.

McDermott is signed for nearly $14 million per year over the next two years. That isn’t a terrible contract and is one that could easily be moved to a contender looking to improve their spacing, but at what cost? I highly doubt any team would be willing to give up even a heavily protected first to trade for him unless significant dead money were to come back to SA. Taking on bad money is a viable option considering the current state of the franchise, but it does make finding a workable deal more difficult.

Very few players choose to come to San Antonio in free agency and McDermott is one of the more noteworthy signings for the franchise in the last decade. That must be considered when cobbling together trade machine deals looking to offload the vet. In my eyes it would be bad practice to ship him out for little return unless he is particularly interested in playing on a different team.

Relationships matter in the league more than fans want to admit; there is a reason the team gave Pau Gasol a three-year deal at the tail end of his NBA career despite only having played one season in the Silver and Black. He chose to come to San Antonio when he didn’t have to, and the team wanted to repay that trust. I would expect to see a similar ethos in regards to McDermott’s future with the franchise. As much as I would love to lean into the young players we added at his position, I think the team will be hard pressed to move him. For a franchise that highly values character and loyalty, it’s easy to see why.

Only time will tell, but I expect him to be back next season unless he is a part of a larger deal and that is perfectly fine. As long as he is not playing 30+ minutes a game he should provide value on a roster devoid of spacing at the four and is by all means a pleasant person to have around. The sky is not falling if McDermott is still on the roster entering next off-season when he will become an expiring deal with significantly more trade value to opposing teams around the league.

Josh Richardson

When Derrick White was traded to Boston at the deadline this season it was one of the more shocking trades in recent Spurs memory. White had cemented himself as a fan favorite both on the court and in the community. As one of the most amicable people to ever come through San Antonio, it was difficult to see him traded but the move signaled this front office was finally seeing the writing on the wall.

The return, a first-round pick that would later become Blake Wesley, a Top-1 protected pick swap in 2028 and Josh Richardson felt like fair value at the time and could look even better in a year. Richardson was good during his time in San Antonio last year. He shot 44% from three, played solid defense and had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. The Spurs were significantly better with Richardson on the court this past season and I would expect that to continue.

Unlike McDermott, Richardson should have significant value on the trade market. He only has one year left on his deal so there should be more urgency to move him before this season’s deadline.  While he did provide a positive impact last season, it will be difficult to get San Antonio’s youth movement on the court if he is receiving the kind of minute load his output deserves.

Would a team give up a protected first for Richardson? I think that is entirely reasonable if the Spurs are willing to take on dead salary in his stead. He is a two-way wing that should be able to plug into any contender’s rotation and provide solid minutes off the bench or as a spot starter.

I really like his game and he has been a particularly good locker room fit with this team. I would love for him to play in San Antonio for the foreseeable future but that just does not feel like the best option for him or for the team. The team will most likely look to trade him during the season similar Thad Young last year but that is a precarious place to be. 

Last year was Richardson’s best season shooting the basketball of his entire career. If he were to fall from shooting 41% down to the 33-35% he shot the previous three seasons it will be a lot more difficult to find a trade package that makes sense. Sometimes it is best to strike when the iron is hot and this feels like one of those times, even if I would be sad to see him leave town.

Gorgui Dieng

Dieng is of a lower profile than rest of the bunch here due to his age and the relative lack of impact over the last few seasons but he will fill a valuable role nonetheless. This team has very little traditional size at the center position and having a third big that can play competent minutes is a major boon from where the team was last season.

The ideal scenario of Zack Collins staying healthy, improving after a season of getting his sea legs under him and holding down the backup center position all season feels very optimistic. There is a lot of “if” in that proposition, so adding a veteran that can play spot minutes or take over the backup five entirely is incredibly helpful.

Dieng has grown as a shooter late in his career, shooting 42% on over 6 attempts per 36 minutes and that comfortability beyond the arc should help him fit in to a variety of lineups next season. He is more paint-bound defensively but has been effective enough crashing the glass and defending the rim to remain a viable option off the bench.  What he lacks in upside he provides in consistent production, something that will be necessary as the Collins redemption tour hits the expected speed bumps. 

Teams struggle to put out competent lineups without a real big if they don’t have the requisite talent on the wings to make up for the size disadvantage, and San Antonio did not have that last year. They added quite a few pieces that could profile well into that role, but they are all young with little meaningful experience under their belts.

If one of Poeltl or Collins goes down with an injury (this will almost certainly happen with two seven-footers, it’s just hard to keep them healthy) Dieng will be a more than capable stopgap option. He won’t be long for the Alamo city, but he provides value in maintaining a workable structure when the players ahead of him miss time during the year.

Hoping for Nice Things

Our final section consists of guys on the cut line or who will be playing primarily with Austin next year. Unlike in years past, the team has filled out the back of the roster with viable rotation bets at valuable positions. How many of these guys will stick on the roster and how many will be left by the wayside? It is difficult to predict, but I fully expect at least one of these guys to play their way into being a part of the long-term plan for the team. If there is one thing all the players to followhave in common it is this; : they all need to improve shooting the basketball and those that don’t will have trouble finding the court in San Antonio.

Dominic Barlow

Dom Barlow is easily the person I am most looking forward to watching next year from this section. He entered his time at OTE as a fringe prospect but played his way onto draft boards throughout the course of the season. While the Spurs traded away their second round pick this year, signing Barlow as an UDFA more than made up for the loss of value. He is someone I wanted the team to take at 38 and should have a real chance to stick on this roster after signing a two-way deal this summer.

The sell for Barlow is a simple one: he moves well laterally for his size, knows where to be and has some tangible upside on the offensive end. He won’t turn 20 years old until May of 2023 so I would anticipate some rough patches during the season as he grows into his body and role on the court. I would not expect him to get a ton of run with the big club after the acquisitions of Sochan and Roby this off-season, but there is a real opportunity for him to grow into a valuable rotation cog for years to come.

He is not the most explosive athlete, particularly in the half court, but that should not be an enormous hindrance for his usage at the next level. The shot has a way to go but he was comfortable taking the occasional three in summer league and during his year at OTE. It looks good, though the volume leaves a lot to be desired. He isn’t going to get by defenders with his burst and as a result will need to force closeouts to provide any kind of rim pressure.  On the longer time horizon of a pending rebuild that feels like an attainable outcome that would vastly increase his chances of one day cracking the rotation.

I am most excited to see how he grows as a passer in the half court. He has a good feel for the game and vision for his position that should continue to blossom with experience in a more structured environment. If he can grow into a player that can make reads out of the short roll or operate as a semi-hub for the offense at the top of the key, his NBA translation becomes a lot cleaner. That feels like it could happen sooner than respectable shooting volume and I hope to see him have an opportunity to grow as a passer next year in Austin. 

Defensively Barlow was fine jumping passing lanes and disrupting offenses but what excites me most is his potential in switch situations or guarding larger wings on the perimeter.  As stated, this team hasn’t had anyone who can guard forward creators in a long time and now the roster is seemingly flush with viable options in the long run. I wish Barlow had a little more vertical pop when defending the rim but his ability to switch (in moderation) up and down the lineup should offer a pathway to a positive defensive impact as he grows into his body and role.

If Barlow can shoot it at any level, he should develop into a lower end rotation player with real upside past that if the pieces begin to come together offensively. The higher end outcomes with Barlow result in a player that can space the floor, make high-level reads as a roll man and take opposing big men off the bounce, all while providing increased defensive scheme versatility. That is the kind of player that can stick on a roster for a long time and someone I am glad the team decided to invest in immediately after the draft.

Jordan Hall

Jordan Hall is a playmaking forward prospect who might, like his patron saint Kyle Anderson, use his versatility to stake claim to a long-term spot in the Spurs rotation. He had two productive seasons at St. Joes with a versatile skill set for a player his size. Not the most athletic prospect, Hall is a more cerebral player who possesses real skill with the ball in his hands. Standing at 6’8”’ in shoes with an 8’8” standing reach, Hall has legitimate forward size while being able to run an offense, putting up over 5.5 assists per game both seasons in college.

His shot from three looks better on paper than it does on film but the volume (~6 per game) and efficiency (~36%) are encouraging. I expect it to take a little time for the shot to translate to a deeper line in the pros and playing against better defenders, but the ingredients are there for it to at least become passable. I am not overly enthused by this possibility, but it is clearly within the realm of potential outcomes.

Defensively Hall has good timing disrupting passing lanes and making plays. He is lighter than Barlow and will most likely be relegated to forward/wing minutes rather than shifting up to play the five but he should be able to provide heady and impactful defense there in time.

More than anything I am hoping Austin lets him run more of the offense this season. If there is one thing that sets Hall apart from other prospects of his ilk it is his ability to actually do something with the ball at his size. If that can be developed and refined to a workable level the team should have an interesting rotation piece moving forward.

Odds are only one of Barlow and Hall will stick on this roster long term, as is the nature of developing guys on two-way deals. I would feel more comfortable betting on Barlow due to his positional versatility and upside defensively, though both are fun and worthwhile bets to make. Forwards matter, it is nice to see the team taking shots on players at the most valuable position in the league. These are the gambles worth taking.

Joe Wieskamp

While there may have been options on the board I preferred to Wieskamp (Brandon Boston and Sharife Cooper in particular), it was hard to be upset about the selection. Taking second round swings on wing shooters is always a viable path and his athletic testing at the combine was genuinely impressive.

Last season wasn’t the most exciting in terms of his on-court production for either Austin or San Antonio, but Joe has shown an ability to fit in. The shot mechanics are a little slow and he had some difficulty getting up attempts at the rate you would prefer from a shooting specialist, something that will need to be addressed in the coming season.

What I will be watching for this season is twofold:, increased volume and increased versatility. He spent a lot of the season in Austin spotting up from deep and providing a safety valve for the offense which is a valuable skill but one that would require a much greater defensive impact to be viable at an NBA level.

I don’t foresee the defense coming along in a major way, as that just isn’t a development I would feel comfortable expecting. There are flashes of physicality when switched onto larger forwards but the lack of lateral quickness and help instincts makes me very hesitant to bet on a positive defensive outcome. Despite his impressive combine testing Wieskamp does not have the athleticism or wingspan typically found in impactful perimeter defenders nor the rotational instincts and technique needed to make up for it.

If that is true, his value is going to need to come on the other end of the court. Acting as a spot up shooter is nice but for him to provide the kind of impact necessary to carve out a rotation spot he will need to start putting greater strain on the defense by running off of actions and shooting off movement. I am not confident his mechanics will allow for that to happen but it does feel like the most likely pathway to regular minutes. The team signed him to a guaranteed deal for this season, but the pre-season has not been particularly encouraging. After not entering their final game of the pre-season I wouldn’t be surprised if Wieskamp is the final cut entering the season, despite his newly signed deal.

Keita Bates-Diop

KBD was one of my favorite players to watch from last season. He is incredibly long and simply knows where to be on the court. He moves well without the ball on offense and has an ability to find seams in a defense that can help cover for his lack of shooting.

That shooting is going to be the bellwether for if he makes the roster this coming season. It is hard to play him significant minutes next to Jakob if neither can space the floor, even if the defensive impact is a generally positive one. His length allows him to disrupt ball handlers and passing lanes alike, he’s intuitive on that end and handles his responsibilities well, but I am not sure that is enough to guarantee a roster spot.

He has grown on the offensive end during his time in San Antonio, finding a nice role as a cutter and off-ball mover despite his hesitance shooting from deep. He has worked well as a connective piece and has a penchant for making quick, sound decisions when he gets the ball. Bates-Diop is someone the coaching staff can trust to go out there and find seams in the defense regardless of the lineup, his versatility on both ends is his biggest strength and may be enough to earn a place on the opening day roster.

He has started the preseason more confident shooting the ball from distance. If that continues, he should lock up a rotation spot, much less a roster spot. This roster has a ton of new faces at his position, but you can never have too many forwards in today’s NBA.

Romeo Langford

Finally, we have reached the biggest wild card of the off-that isseason. Langford has struggled to stay on the court due to injury woes and struggled shooting the ball to start his career. He got so little opportunity on-court last season due to an ill-timed injury it is hard to determine how the franchise views him moving forward.

His lack of a consistent shot and the duplicative nature of his skill set with other young players on the roster lands him squarely on the cut line entering camp. SA is going to need to waive someone before the season starts and while Langford may have seemed like the most likely cut entering camp the pre-season has made that equation slightly more complicated.

He moves well defensive and is strong for his frame, he has done a good job defending perimeter scorers and may be the person best suited on the roster for such a task. I still don’t entirely buy the jump shot, but his ability to defend and provide some amount of rim pressure leaves room for some additional upside if he sticks around into the season.

It is difficult to see him earning his way into the rotation even if the team has significant injury problems. Vassell, Branham, Wesley and Richardson should all be ahead of him on the depth chart, offering little opportunity for playing time. Langford has an interesting archetype with his on-ball defense and creation potential shown in college, but the shot has never come around and without it the options for on-court usage are minimal. Langford is an interesting project who I would like to find a home on a roster somewhere if he is cut from San Antonio, there is more developmental meat on the bone here than most players near the bottom of the depth chart.

Back to Chasing Rings

To quote the modern poet Doctur Dot “Just yesterday, I had everything. Everything was nothing, but I ain’t complain”. There is not another song lyric in existence to better describe the situation the Spurs found themself entering this off-season.  Trading away yet another developmental success story was hard, but despite how impressive Dejounte’s growth was last year it did not significantly alter the outlook of this team.  At the time it felt like everything, but in reality, it was probably closer to nothing if the end goal is championship contention.   

Building a contender is a long and arduous process that requires more than just accumulating talent.  It is about finding not just any star to lead your franchise; it’s about finding the RIGHT star to build your future around.  A team spearheaded by Dejounte, Keldon, Devin and the three rookies very well could have made a playoff push in the coming years, but even the most optimistic fan would tell you the odds of becoming a true contender were close to none. Brian Wright and Company decided pulling the rug out from under this current nucleus was the best option moving forward despite what it meant for the on–court product during what may be Greg Popovich’s last season. I find that to be generally good business.

In my living memory this team has never been in such a dramatic state of flux and that is a good thing. The roster was going to need drastic changes to reach the kind of heights they have set out to achieve and making those decisions sooner rather than later should benefit them in the long run.

Extending Keldon this off-season was a telling move about where this front office thinks the team is and their general philosophy surrounding the rebuild. Retaining the talent you have drafted and developed is incredibly important for any franchise. While he could return significant value on the trade market, Keldon should have more value to this team than others around the league. 

The Spurs will find themselves with their highest draft pick in 25 years next off-season and whoever they select will immediately become the prized jewel of the rebuild. The ability to surround that player with talent from day 1 is greater than any draft capital that could be obtained on the trade market. 

Having a ready-made roster full of competent NBA level players will not only help provide a nurturing developmental situation for their keystone but it will help accelerate the journey to competitiveness.  Time and time again we have seen teams draft a sure-fire star only to squander their stockpile of long-term assets in an attempt to create a competent roster before finding themselves with nowhere to go.

San Antonio shouldn’t run into that problem any time soon. This roster is built to insulate a newly drafted centerpiece with young complementary talents throughout the rotation. Whoever this team drafts will be entering an environment suitable for growth and a roster built to grow with him. The Spurs are attempting to walk the thin line between rebuild and reboot, the margins are incredibly slim and there is little room for error. With that said, they have put themselves in a situation uniquely built for long-term success if luck is to go their way.

This season is going to be a long one that is difficult to watch at times, but that is the price of building for great rather than good.  I for one am more than willing to pay it. 

All Statistics provided by https://www.basketball-reference.com and https://www.barttorvik.com

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