You never know which version of this Orlando Magic team you’re going to get. Sporadic 3pt shooting. Roster-depleting injuries. Rotations lacking rhythm. But there’s two things you can always count on for this group:

1. Opponents scratching and clawing for every point against this pestering defense
2. When Paolo and Franz get going, this team can hang around with anyone.

Orlando’s defense is as impressive as any team in the league; this year the Magic are on track for their second straight season as the league’s 2nd-best rated defense. The one thing you never question is The Competitive fire. The Energy. The Hustle. (get well soon, Suggs.)

The offense, though, lives and dies with the consistency of its stars, not to mention the shooting luck of its role players. The difference between stars and superstars in this league is a little bit of super and a lot of consistency. Orlando’s two shooting star rising suns still have to find that consistency to make the last jump into the superstar galaxy.

This season, both players made leaps closer to that goal, becoming franchise cornerstones any time would build around. When you play the Magic, sometimes you get Boogie; sometimes you get The Beast.

How many NBA teams run their offense through a pair of 6’10” point-forwards? Two big wing scoring creators here to bend driving angles, hit tough shots, and create good looks for the team.

Often penetrating the paint with postups and pick-and-rolls, what are the odds these two big wings average the same 4.7 Assists Per Game with exactly 223 Drives a piece over the course of the season for the same team?

On most nights, The Magic’s offense relies on its star scorers accomplishing 3 main goals: Getting to the line, Scoring at the rack, and Creating open looks for others. Franz looks to methodically run P&R and DHOs, using the screener to create that half-step advantage into the paint with hostage dribbles and shifty direction-changing drives until he gets to the rim for his patented running flip shot, his dirk fade counter, or the lob to the roll man.

Paolo makes scoring look effortless, bringing the ball up the floor and deciding between a quick pull-up jumper, backing down his defender from the perimeter with brute strength, or simply driving through every defender in front of him for a Power Slam.

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley about the challenges that go into playcalling with players as talented and versatile as Paolo and Franz, where it feels like any play could work on any possession depending on matchups and lineups:

“I think a lot of it always boils down to their feel, their read, their recognition to who’s on the floor with them, and the spacing placed around them.” – Jamahl Mosley

Sometimes the role players’ 3pt shooting shows up, like in Cleveland in a National TV spot, and on those rare nights where this team has the “we can make 15 threes” factor in play, they look like they can compete with any team in the league. Other nights, they have trouble hanging with the bottom of the barrel, because when the shots don’t fall, the paint is packed, and every possession becomes a grind to force a stop and follow it up with a tough shot.

Sometimes you get Jekyll, sometimes you get Hyde; no matter which version of The Magic show up, it’s scary.

The Numbers

How do each of these rising stars’ stats compare to the rest of the league?

Franz’ +3.5 EPM rating ranks 19th in Estimated Plus Minus in the 96th percentile overall. Wagner has an elilte rating on both ends of the floor, rating in. the 90th percentile defensively (+1.3 D-EPM), and 91st percentile offensively (+2.2 O-EPM). Only 6 players with a higher EPM than Franz’ 3.5 EPM are also in the 90th percentile or higher on both ends, via Dunks and Threes. That puts Wagner in the company of NBA Stars who impact both sides of the floor, revealing that Franz is one of the best young rising two-way wings in the league.

This impact rating isn’t as high for Banchero despite his impressive box score stats, yet still rates in the 80th percentile overall (+1.0 EPM) and in the 81st percentile offensively (+0.9 O-EPM). In another impact metric called LEBRON, Paolo actually has a slight edge now at 1.43 to Franz 1.38 rating, while Franz still has the lead in LEBRON WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with 4.32 to Paolo’s 3.28.

Many Magic fans and skeptics around the league often debate who is the better player of the two, based on these impact numbers being higher for Franz than Paolo for one reason or another. Two prominent analytics folks have weighed in on the matter to help provide insight; in fact, its the people who created these very two impact metrics.


Taylor Snarr, the creator of EPM, was asked about this very topic in a recent F5 newsletter by Owen Phillips; here’s his thoughts:

I asked Krishna Narsu, the inventor of LEBRON, about this topic directly on my podcast, Learning Basketball. At the time, and up to that point in their careers, Franz had steadily rated higher than Paolo, despite Paolo scoring more points per game.

One might expect Franz’ impact to go down as his usage has gone up, but it hasn’t. Franz has stayed efficient when given Paolo’s #1 option touches due to injury, becoming the primary option defenses have to stop, yet his impact is as high as ever.

Krishna’s conclusion here at the time is that Franz impact stats are generally higher due to his playmaking creation for others, his shooting gravity on and off the ball, and his matchup difficulty as a more active defender. Doing more little things that impact winning than just smooth scoring and tough shot making.

That said, Paolo has finally reached the same level of impact via this metric, showing Paolo’s impact has risen as of late for making winning plays, improving as a shooter, producing as a scorer, and being a reliable scoring hub for the team.

Franz “Boogie” has been putting up legit All-Star numbers all season, averaging 24 PPG – 6 REB – 5 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL,
while shooting 54% 2P% on 13 2PA – 32% 3P% on 6 3PA – 88% FT% on 5 FTA. Franz has had marquee moments throughout the season, like going supersonic anytime he sees the Lakers, featuring a stepback game-winning kill shot on a 37 PTS – 11 AST – 6 REB – 4 STL evening in L.A.

Since the All-Star break, “The Beast” Banchero is scoring 29 PPG, which is 2nd only to The NBA’s Leading Scorer tough shot-making MVP-favorite superstar in Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Paolo’s averaging 29 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL in that 17gm stretch, while shooting 51% 2P% on 14 2PA – 37% 3P% on 7 3PA – 80% FT% on 10 FTA.

This success didn’t happen overnight; Paolo’s battled a tough injury all season, one that has taken time to fully recover from even while playing games. The standard is so high for the former Duke star that when he was averaging 22 PTS 7 REB 5 AST for 21 games after coming back from injury, outsiders still expected more.

One smart evaluator who looks at the game with a unique eye for physical movement pointed out he didn’t quite have the same leg strength back yet that makes his game so deadly. (h/t @Polarfall on Twitter)

I asked Paolo about his injuries, the physical and mental aspect of recovering and finding a rhythm after the comeback, and how the team’s mindset has been dealing with so many different injuries this season to key players.

Averaging 31 PPG – 8 REB – 4 AST – 1 STL in 14 games since this question, it’s safe to say Banchero is back to his star self.

Against Charlotte on March 25th, Paolo became the first Magic player since Dwight to drop 30+ PTS in four straight games, joining Dwight, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady as the only players in team history to drop 30+ PTS in 4+ straight games, via Magic PR. Against Dallas on March 27th, Paolo did it again, becoming has become the first Orlando Magic player since T-Mac and Shaq as the only players in team history to score 30+ PTS in FIVE straight games

That only scratches the surface of the scoring run The Beast is on. Paolo’s dropped 30+ PTS sixteen times this season Banchero’s posted fifteen straight games with 20+ PTS, a Career-High. Throw in four games scoring 40+ PTS for good measure, including his career-high 50-Burger against Indiana in the 5th game of the season, just before going down to injury. For all we know, Paolo could have been headed for an All-NBA team between his production and where the Magic could have been in the standings had he (Franz, Suggs, Moritz, Goga) not lost so many games to injury.

Seemingly every night, Paolo Banchero ties or sets a record not seen in Orlando since the Magic Mount Rushmore stars who have graced the blue and white pinstripes before him.

• First player to score 40+ PTS in multiple games in multiple seasons since T-Mac & Shaq after his shootout with Steph (56 PTS) in Orlando.
• Against Toronto, he drilled the most FGs made in a quarter without a miss (8/8 FG) since Shaq.
• After a game in Atlanta, Banchero became the 3rd player in Magic history to have multiple games of 35+ PTS, 10+ REB, and 5+ AST, joining, you guessed it, T-Mac (16x) and Shaq (3x).

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley how Sequencing factors into his playcalling to keep defenses on their toes with counters of similar plays: “it’s part of the game. it’s the game read. it’s the game feel.”

By The Numbers…

Banchero & Wagner have shared three games this season where they both post a statline of 25+ PTS – 5+ AST – 5+ REB in the same game, the most for a set of teammates in Orlando Magic history.


Paolo is scoring 25.7 PPG, tied for 10th with Cade Cunningham, meaning he scores slightly more points per game than Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, LaMelo Ball, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Zion Williamson.

Franz is scoring 24.4 PPG, ranking 20th among all players, sitting just ahead of Steph Curry, Trae Young, and Victor Wembanyama

Paolo’s 7.2 RPG is T-47th with Zion Williamson.
Franz’s 5.7 RPG is T-92nd with Jaylin Williams, Anthony Edwards, Dyson Daniels, and Guerschon Yabusele.

Franz and Paolo are both tied at exactly 4.7 APG a piece, T-51st among all players.

Franz 1.3 SPG is T-37th with many including Lonzo Ball, Bilal Coulibaly, Amen Thompson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, and Chris Paul.
Paolo’s 0.8 SPG is T-169th with many players including Giannis Antetokoumnpo, Ben Simmons, Evan Mobley.

Paolo draws the 3rd most Free Throws at 8.3 FTA/gm, converting 73% FT%.
Franz draws the T-25th most Free Throws at 5.4 FTA/gm, hitting 86% FT%.

Paolo shoots the T-56rd most three pointers per game at 6 3PA, the same volume as Gradey Dick, Cade Cunningham, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, and Naz Reid(!)
Franz shoots 30% 3P% from deep on the T-65th most three pointers per game at 5.8 3PA, the same volume as LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Desmond Bane, Andrew Wiggins, Jaylen Brown, Max Strus, and Kristaps Porzingis.

Franz is shooting 36% in the clutch on 15/42 FG.
Paolo is shooting 47% in the clutch on 21/45 FG.

Franz Wagner isn’t just Top-15 in PPG and Fast Break PTS, he’s rated even higher in four areas; Franz is exactly the 6th best player in the league this season at scoring Points in the Paint (13 PTS), Points on Drives (10 PTS), and Points off Turnovers (4 PTS) via the Orlando Magic broadcast team.

Paolo Banchero is similarly great in some of these areas, as these are two of the premier paint penetrators in the sport. Paolo averages as many PTS off Drives as Giannis (8.2), T-16th, and scores exactly 10 PTS in the Paint per game, ranking 29th.

In 809 MIN with Franz & Paolo both ON the court together, Orlando has a +2.2 Net Rating.
In 979 MIN with just Franz ON the court and Paolo OFF, Orlando has a +7.74 Net Rating.
In 484 MIN with just Paolo ON the court and Franz OFF, Orlando has a -8.85 Net Rating.

One thought with having multiple point guard creators on the same team is that one can be on the floor at all times; the same can be applied to having two stars, especially when both can serve as an offensive hub every second on the floor.

As the season has gone on, it appears these two are staggered more and more, where goal is to play as few seconds of basketball as possible without one or both of them on the floor – against Charlotte before the All-Star break it was 6 minutes; against Atlanta after the ASB it was 30 seconds; against Memphis the next night it was 4 minutes.

I asked Jamahl Mosley after the Grizzlies matchup what factors come into play when deciding between staggering Franz’ and Paolo’s minutes compared to the benefits of playing them together and keeping a balanced second unit in place behind them:

Volume & Efficiency

Below’s a chart that compares the two stars shooting touch in three efficient shot locations:

Shooting Touch – At The Rim, Free Throw Line, Beyond The Arc

Paolo shoots better from deep on and off the ball.

Franz shows better touch on a much higher volume of shots at the rim on layups and FLOATAs.

Franz shoots much better at the pinstripe, while Paolo gets to the line more often.

Synergy help us see the volume and efficiency for each Player based on the playtypes they categorize every possession into.

Keep in mind, that these tracking stats are still a work in progress; these stats measure the *final* action of a possession – for example, if a team runs 2 pick-and-rolls in a row bending the defense, and then follows that up with 1 handoff that results in shot attempt, that play is tracked as 1 Handoff Possession.

The two charts below shows how Franz and Paolo stack up in every Synergy Playtype as scorers, while 3 playtypes including both scoring and passing to teammates to compare them as Scoring Creator Offensive Engines: ISO, Post Ups, P&R Ball-Handler

To no surprise, Paolo Banchero has the efficiency edge in ISOs, Drives, and Spot Ups; what is interesting is Paolo is also more efficient on Cuts and in Transition this year.

As expected, Franz Wagner is more efficient running Handoffs and P&R as the ball-handler; what may come as a surprise is that Franz is also more efficient as the P&R Roll-Man and as a Post-Up creator hub this season.

One important note is that volume for some of these plays is drastically different. Paolo has 16 handoffs, 35 cuts, 75 P&R roll-man plays on the year; Franz is up to 68 handoffs, 90 cuts, and 30 P&R roll man possessions.

Both big wings like to leak out in Transition, scoring 1.14 and 1.22 PPP respectively on a total of 391 fast break possession between them.

What really stands out for Paolo is his scoring versatility – Paolo averages between 0.93 PPP and 0.99 PPP on his five most common halfcourt playtypes, which might be roughly average efficiency overall, but on high volume these can be reliable actions.

As for Franz, the combined P&R Ball-Handler efficiency and volume jumps off the page, creating over 1.0 per possession on extremely high volume. His efficiency is very good and doesn’t drop off the more the team runs him through the action. This is by far Orlando’s most reliable set to create a good shot through Franz as the offensive engine.

The numbers supporting Post Ups for Franz makes one do a double take. Paolo is the star swishing beautiful baseline fadeaways, yet the numbers say Franz creates more efficient offense for the team when running through him through the post. Franz creates 1.13 PPP on 104 possessions; Paolo creates 0.98 PPP on 131 possessions.

I asked Jamahl Mosley about the advantages created by moving Franz off ball around screens before initiating the downhill action, like in sets like Chicago and Peja where Franz will run around the perimeter through screen(s) into a handoff that helps give him separation from his defender.

Jamahl notes that this idea of creating advantages by moving off ball, gain ahead of steam, running defenders through screens, to create a situation where the scorer can shoot drive or kick with an advantage already created, is the goal for not just Franz, but all of the team’s scoring options:

Tracking The Assist Combo

Sometimes Boogie looks for The Beast; sometimes The Beast needs a little Boogie.

Paolo assisted Franz 40 times this year, the most of any duo on the team; Franz found Paolo for 27 dimes this season, the T-5th most of any combo on the team.

They have both assisted each other directly at the rim exactly 18 times a piece, T-3rd most of any duo on the team.

Considering how few games these two have actually played together, these marks show how they both prioritize looking for each other on the court for the most efficient shot in halfcourt – at the rim.

As for the costars finding the rest of the team for good looks at the rim and beyond the arc, Franz has created more total shots for his teammates (89 3PT AST, 110 ATR AST) compared to Paolo’s totals (72 3PT AST, 52 ATR AST), partially due to playing more games this season.

However, when the number is based on racking up dimes on a more comparable one-to-one scale of per one hundred possessions, the shot creation rates look much closer.

Paolo creates more looks for the team from deep (3.02 3PT AST per 100 poss),
but fewer dimes at the rim. (2.13 ATR AST per 100 poss)

Franz creates fewer looks for the team from deep (2.8 3PT AST per 100 poss),
and a much higher rate of dimes at the rim. (3.4 ATR AST per 100 poss)

(assist combo numbers via 3.18.25)

Boogie Nights

Some of Orlando’s many 4pt swings each game comes when the defense forces a turnover, the ball finds Franz, he immediately looks up the floor, and finds Banchero streaking down the sideline outlet for a breakaway slam, or he pushes the pace to create a 2-on-1 alley oop lob to Banchero on the break.

The majority of Franz assists to Paolo came in transition for 10 fast break buckets.

The 2nd-most assists from Franz to Paolo came on the move in the half court, with 8 assists coming on off ball cuts and 3pt kickouts.

The Franz-Paolo Pick-and-Roll hasn’t been used often, but it stands as a powerful weapon up Orlando’s sleeve going forward that unlocks Paolo as a short-roll playmaker and Franz as an on-ball creator with a screen, both pulling attention from defenses.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how high the volume of the Franz-Paolo P&R could reach for Orlando as one of the team’s staples sets:

“I really do believe that those two create a problem. And so, when you have two of your best players in P&R — they’ve got to make a decision — and they’re both great playmakers. And so, I think them being able to make plays and read off each other is something that can cause problems for a defense down the stretch.” – Jamahl Mosley

This action sets up the playfinishers around those two to finish at the rim or from beyond the arc. Send two at Franz or Paolo if you like living in your own nightmare.

Franz found Paolo 3 times for assists when running P&R. On two other possessions, Paolo drew a shooting foul after Franz found him in the 2-man P&R set.

Unleash The Beast

Oddly, Paolo did not assist Franz one time in any inverted P&R, and that action doesn’t seem to be used often where Paolo is initiating and Franz is the roll man, probably since this duo’s strengths may be most effective as a combination in the order described before with Franz on ball and Paolo setting the first screen.

Paolo most often found Franz on off ball cuts or relocation threes 21 times.

Winning early post positioning has been key to unlocking quick easy baskets for these two, looking for each other up the court once one has secured the advantage under the rim deep into the paint before the defense is set. One of the most reliable buckets every game is Franz taking off in transition, planting his feet deep in the paint, posting up the first mismatch he sees. Paolo hit ahead to Franz in transition 13 times.

Paolo also found Franz 2 times in the post after securing positioning advantage in halfcourt situations. Sometimes you’ll see one set a back screen for the other in the middle of a set like Horns to help force switches and create mismatches, shown here:

Finding a guard concept that works around Paolo and Franz is the next step

Orlando’s up and down season can be directly attributed to injuries first, and shooting luck second. Even this late in the season has seen volatile stretches, with the team now 6-4 in their last 10 after bouncing back from an 5-game losing streak. What’s been the difference as of late outside of the chemistry of these two stars?

Anthony Black‘s play has been the wildcard factor for this team. His defense is reliable enough to start every night, and his decision-making feel is special, two traits that define the strengths of his game. Even though he’s just in Year 2, he’s become the team’s third scorer, first option off the bench, and third big playmaker who can initiate offense and even space the floor.

When AB’s shot is falling and he finds a way to score, this team is often more competitive:

in Orlando’s 33 wins with AB playing, he scores 11 PPG on 60% TS% and 43% 3P%
in Orlando’s 37 losses with AB playing, he scores 8 PPG on 45% TS% and 20% 3P%

Black continues to develop the 3pt shot despite receiving constant criticism of his shot. In his last 31 games, Black is shooting 40% 3P% from deep on 2.6 3PAs per game; in his 39 games prior, Anthony shot 24% 3P% on 2.4 3PA per game.

I asked Anthony Black about his about his changing role due to injuries and his 3pt development after a 4/5 3P outing “I’m pretty comfortable playing where I’m at right now. It gives me a chance to operate a little bit, while also playing some minutes with our two guys.”

Another underrated factor has been the addition of 33yo Cory Joseph into the starting lineup.

You know a team is shuffling the rotation with injuries when arguably the 7th guard on the roster to start the year is now their most trustworthy starter.

Credit to Cory for doing the little things that have earned that spot: team-first ball movement, hit the open shot, run some O when called upon, take what the D gives you, hold your own defensively. Joseph serves as a fine example of the type of connector floor-stretching plus-defender guard who can slide right into an offense featuring two big wing playmaking initiators.

Orlando has a +8.9 rating in 173 MIN when they play Cory Joseph alongside Boogie and The Beast.

Cory earned the starting job after an impressive stretch against Toronto. Despite losing the game, Orlando mounted a 14pt comeback after inserting Joseph into the game to close with 10 MIN to play for the first time all night, making Cory a +14 on the night. He’s started ever since, leading Orlando to a .500 record after a rough stretch after the All-Star break.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how much he trusts the veteran experience of Cory Joseph after the game:

There’s no more debate to be had; Franz Wagner & Paolo Banchero are NBA Stars, rising suns for a team with the 2nd best defense in the league for the second straight season.

What separates the Orlando Magic from pretenders to contenders is that volatile 3pt factor. Whether they find a guard who can draw two on the ball with pull-up 3pt gravity or flank these two supernovas with more consistent shooters, that’s the last step to go from making the playoffs to competing in them.

The cool thing about this article is it starts and ends with the same picture – the Magic’s defense runs on Chaos Energy, and once Boogie and The Beast carve out the super to their star, this team might just mess around and find the rings they covet.

Stats via Synergy, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Dunks and Threes, and Magic PR as of 03.27.25 unless otherwise noted

The post Boogie and The Beast appeared first on Swish Theory.

A picture is worth a thousand words, but I will keep it to less than that per picture.

At this point, Anthony Edwards has obliterated the point-of-attack defense for a 2-on-1 situation with Rudy Gobert vs Rui Hachimura, encroaching on the restricted area. The gather has been made, and his momentum is downhill. A moment in time for Ant to make his decision, with several options at his disposal. 

Ant has done so much good work to this point. What originated as a handoff from Gobert out of a sideline inbounds, Ant has already left his immediate defenders Austin Reaves and AD dusted.

(Also wanted to note that Ingles set an off-ball screen that put Reaves a half step or more behind the handoff to begin with, to Ingles’ credit)

But for all intents and purposes, Ant has created a full advantage, overcoming both point-of-attack defenders. Rui steps up in help, as he should.

And that leaves Gobert wide open at the rim. The Wolves are one pass away from an open rim finish, one of the best results attainable on any given possession. Rudy is even starting to point up and call for the lob.

Per NBA.com/stats, Rudy was 73/78 on alley-oop dunk attempts last season, good for a 93.6% completion percentage and 1.87 points per shot (PPS). Pretty good. However, when Rudy was forced to adjust to the pass or was unable to easily and securely dunk it, his alley-oop layup numbers fall off dramatically: 6/14 on alley-oop layup attempts (42.9%, 0.86 PPS), cutting expected points down by over a whole point. 

This could be an easy alley-oop dunk. Does Gobert’s notoriously clumsy hands influence Ant’s decision? With a moment to decide, is there trust for the passer to execute the delivery, and the receiver to cap it off?

What defenders have a path to making any sort of play on the potential lob pass? Both Reaves and Knecht are at a huge size and positioning disadvantage to cover Gobert here, and it would be uncharacteristic for either one of them, so it’s safe to count them out on this play. Otherwise the Lakers would need a spectacular recovery to the rim by AD, who does not look like he’s in any heat seeking missile-style stance to explode back into the play.

Think Giannis recovering to block Ayton’s alley-oop in the 2021 Finals. That level of play is rare. Don’t expect AD to summon that in the first game of a long season, but he is one of the handful of players in the league capable of it. 

Another passing option is the corner.

But seeking corner 3’s when you have a 2-on-1 advantage converging on the rim is not the best process. Having the vision and awareness of an open corner shooter is still ideal here, but it would really have to come down to (situation and) convincing shooting personnel – Randle is the one wide open in the corner in this instance. He shot 35.4% on catch-n-shoot 3-pointers last season – 1.06 PPS. This calculus changes when it’s Donte DiVincenco standing there – 40.7% on catch-n-shoot 3’s for 1.22 PPS, but the decision should still be the rim. 

Rui is the one meeting Ant at the rim. It might not matter who is at the rim, Ant will remain undeterred. 

Ant has already created so much expected value at this point, where his uncontainable athleticism has awarded him three great options: the lob to an open Gobert, his own finish at the rim against a rotating defender, and an open corner catch-n-shoot for Randle. 

Ant ends up loading up and rising around Rui for a finish with the foul, and-1. As a 69% finisher in the restricted area last season (1.38 PPS), it’s hard to blame Ant for taking it himself, and credit must be given for the finish. Also have to note that the extra free throw tacked on probably does not happen with the lob, and Ant carries a healthy free throw rate over from last season (0.325 FTr). But there is a higher chance of missing the field goal compared to a pin-point lob.

The decision might not matter – if the shot misses, it appears likely Rudy can mop up the mess since he is best-positioned for a roll off the rim.

Contingent on misses, this naturally dependent facet of Gobert’s game can help prop up team efficiency during poor shooting stretches. But while Gobert’s putback efficiency from last season was strong (67.5 FG% – 1.35 PPS), it is not as potent as a lob dunk.

At the same time, the potential second shot efficiency on this play should be partially credited to Ant, since the defense was beaten so badly, and they were so far out of position for a defensive rebound as well. In this specific instance with no one else around the basket to contest the board, Rudy could comfortably finish a hypothetical miss. 

Ultimately, Ant gets two points on the play, with a chance at a third (which he got). No need for Gobert’s involvement. But over the course of the season, over the course of a playoff series, or even over the course of an individual game, the accumulation of the quality of decisions add up. The margins stack up, so the process of finding the most optimal shots possession-by-possession has to be a concerted, conscientious effort, and a developed habit over time. 

Orlando is starting to pull away from the Heat in the second half. Anthony Black faces an aggressive Miami point-of-attack defense in this instance. With Paolo releasing freely on the roll, the conventional read is available.

AB’s height gives him the ability to simply dump this pass off over the top of Jimmy and Jaquez to Paolo, giving Paolo a rotating defender to attack, and a numbers-advantage on the weakside to potentially make a pass and keep the defense in rotation. 

Bam is the backline defender responsible here for rotating to Paolo. 

Coming over from guarding Wendell Carter Jr., Bam is just beginning to lean towards Paolo for a routine rotation to the short-roller. 

However, AB zigs here where most would zag. Sensing the momentum of Bam – slight as it is towards Paolo in an entirely valid defensive decision by Bam – AB subverts this reasonable intuitive defensive expectation, and zips a pass into WCJ at the elbow.

While Paolo would have received a 2-on-1 situation with WCJ vs Bam (and possibly a 3-on-2 situation if Highsmith rotates to WCJ in a timely manner), WCJ is now the one receiving the pass and the 2-on-1 scenario vs Bam with Paolo the one cutting to the rim. What’s the difference? 

Per NBA.com/stats, Paolo’s points per shot on cuts was 1.28, while WCJ’s was 1.39, the better bet in a vacuum. Last season, Paolo led Orlando with 10.2 potential assists per game, and WCJ had 2.9, not bad for a center. Point being, no matter who here receives the advantage from Anthony Black out of the pick-n-roll, both players are capable of being the one to make the next pass, or the one to finish at the rim off a cut. It speaks to the versatility of the Magic’s frontcourt and their overall play-making ability.

If a hypothetical interior rotation by Highsmith subsequently occurred and the rim was covered, the Heat’s perimeter rotations would then be tested, as KCP in the corner would be the next conventional open read

and then Harris above-the-break following that.

Since the Heat decided to put two defenders on the ball at the point-of-attack off the jump, this is the defensive path they have chosen for themselves. After Highsmith, Herro would need to be on the way to the corner to KCP, with Jimmy or Jaquez heading to Harris. When the rotations are tight, it’s definitely doable.

But the play-making chain never got that far. It didn’t need to – the dominos quickly fell into what resulted in a jam by Paolo.

Bam was caught off-balance by this alternative chain of advantages. Disoriented for a moment and left scrambling, Adebayo could not catch up on the play, as a quick connective pass by WCJ to Paolo resulted in the secure flush (80/88 on dunks last season – 90.9%, and this one was even two-handed), only desperately contested by Bam.

AB was presented with an obvious choice for the standard play, and thus predictable links in the play-making chain, but he used a little imagination and ingenuity to mix things up. AB successfully getting off the ball vs two defenders and following the natural stem of decisions out of this situation is the perfectly right play to make. Credit to him for creating another way though, puncturing the middle of the floor with the pass and giving WCJ great access to options, where he instantly found Paolo flowing to the rim.

AB’s knowledge of defensive assumptions, his size, vision and manipulation all played a factor in what culminated in a dependable two-handed dunk for the Magic’s best scorer. Pretty good. 

Beginning of the fourth quarter and the Spurs are down by double-digits. While double-digit comebacks are becoming more frequent in today’s league, it is still a steep challenge as less than a quarter of teams successfully overcome that type of deficit. San Antonio will need to make the most out of every offensive possession down the stretch, on top of getting stops, to get back into this one. With 21 seconds on the shot clock, Chris Paul is leading the Spurs into their early offense. Expected points on any given possession fall precipitously every second that ticks off the shot clock, and Paul is looking for an early opportunity to strike. 

For the Spurs’ attack, their fifth player Keldon Johnson, who had inbounded the ball, has yet to even cross half-court, let alone enter this snapshot. Still, there is advantage to be had by getting into this drag screen action quickly; the lowest defender three seconds into this possession is Maxi Kleber on the weakside elbow,

which is not particularly low for a low-man. But that is how far back he was able to get in three seconds. Looking further into the paint as a whole, Maxi’s left foot is the only defensive establishment the Mav’s have in the paint at the moment. No other Maverick is near the paint, and all are even further from the rim. 

Chris Paul is already highly aware of the entire defense’s positioning, and the subtle offensive dynamics in motion. The Mavericks are in the middle of switching the Chris Paul-Jeremy Sochan screen.

Klay was up on the screen initially, so his switch assignment becomes more challenging here on out; he has to catch up to the cutting Sochan while simultaneously closing the pocket pass window. Meanwhile Sochan has the head start, slipping out of this screen and diving into the open waters of the current paint. 

Sochan has only just placed his left foot inside the arc,

but he’s already the most dangerous threat for a rim attempt in this moment. Jeremy has turned his hips out of the screen, and he’s now facing the rim as he makes his cut. Klay, now his primary defender, is positioned on the top-side of Sochan, trailing the cut. In a race to the rim, Sochan will beat Klay, and last season Sochan made 72.7% of his finishes stemming from cuts. Pretty good. 

All Chris Paul has to do now is deliver the ball. A temporary, momentary passing window, and perhaps a tight window for many players, but this is Chris Paul. 

Luka could probably do more here to obstruct the passing window. He knows better. 

The Spurs should already be favored to score this possession, even as soon as this moment, but the play is not over. A quick strike on a leading bounce pass by the pick-n-roll maestro to Sochan would threaten a defensive concession and test the recoverability of the Mavericks’ weakside. Kleber, who is not facing the rim like Sochan, and also does not have momentum towards the rim like Sochan, must catch up in a race to the rim for any chance to thwart the Spurs.

Incredibly, Kleber was able to close the gap and make a spectacular block at the rim. 

After receiving the pass, players in Sochan’s position should understand the speed of recovery required by Kleber here to make a play, as well as the instinctual desperation to catch up to the play, and use that momentum against the late, frenzied rim protector. A simple shot fake for Sochan would do the trick to send Kleber out of the picture and/or send himself to the free throw line. 

In the end, the Spurs were not able to string together enough buckets or stops in this one, falling to Dallas 109-120.

The post NBA Freeze Frame: Volume 1 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Paolo Banchero stepped into the league a walking mismatch.

A 6’10” 250lb tank in transition and North-South force of nature has the tight handles, clean footwork, and high feel to one-vs-one anyone in sight.

He operates both ends of the pick-and-roll with ease, relentlessly attacking the rack with finesse, body and ball control to maintain balance on drives and jumpers.

Banchero beats up bigs on the block, glides past guards on the wing, and wedges past wings inbetween; Paolo speeds past smalls and overpowers the powerful.

Raised in Seattle, Washington, a young hoops fan grew up rooting for the local Huskies squad, attending games and cheering for collegiate standouts Markelle Fultz and Terrence Ross.

He admired tall tough shot-making midrange assassins, incepting hours and hours of highlights from unstoppable scorers, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant.

His mother, Rhonda Smith-Banchero, was a former professional basketball player who retired as the Washington Huskies’ all-time leading scorer.

She would develop the skills that define his game on the court and instill a decision-making process off of it, decision-making that may have once saved his life.

In 2018, Police held a fifteen year-old Banchero and his seventeen year-old friend, Washington State guard Noah Williams, at gunpoint. The crime? The teenagers were leaving a concert, driving a Jeep. Police were looking for a “reportedly stolen Jeep.”

“I had a situation with the police when I was 15, where me and my friend had got pulled over, and they pulled guns on us, and we got arrested. They had suspected we stole the car, but it wasn’t [true]. They had the wrong car and everything, so it was a situation that I had to deal with back then,” Banchero told @MarcJSpears in this incredible story,

Banchero and Williams would pursue a lawsuit against the King County Sheriff’s Office, with goals of receiving a public apology and effecting change.

On Sept. 6, 2019, the Associated Press reported that the King County Sheriff’s Office was ordered to apologize, pay $80,000, and implement new use-of-force guidelines to settle a federal civil rights lawsuit brought by two African American teens, Williams and Banchero, who say they were wrongly held at gunpoint at a concert.

Banchero’s coachability allowed his teachers to help mold a decision-making process.

“I’ve had some encounters where I had to do the right thing in situations that were tricky. Just knowing what my mom had taught me and using that was big,” Banchero said.

“Paolo was always driven,” his mother, Smith-Banchero says, “Any sport, we would tell him, ‘Don’t go out there and mess around… ‘Don’t practice bad shots. Don’t practice that mess.’ And he was just always listening. Coachable, even from that age.”

“Paolo is really coachable. And a big reason for that is because of the family he comes from… All he is and all he ever hopes to be is a result of his mother,” – Legendary Duke Coach K

Banchero goes on to praise Coach K for taking his raw talent and helping “blend it all”, via the Knuckleheads Podcast with Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles:

“(Coach K) taught me how to be more efficient. How to use my size and god-given ability to keep things simple. Helped me when I got to the league just blend it all, blend the skill with being able to dominate. He helped me a lot though.” – Paolo Banchero, via Knuckleheads Podcast / Player Tribune

Banchero highlights his current head coach Jamahl Mosley for giving himself and teammates freedom to play through mistakes with the expectation of playing hard on both ends of the floor in return:

“(Coach Mosley)’s helped me a tremendous amount, too; and he’s been there for me the whole time, he’s been real hands on the whole time. Since I’ve first got there, summer league practices, him being there, damn near going through drills with me, playing D, and just always being a voice.

He’s preached me playing with freedom, but also, having to play hard, play defense, not just be a one-way player. He lets me play through mistakes; he lets everyone play through mistakes.

He a coach who’s gonna let us play as long as we giving effort and playing the right way. He’s a great coach, man; it’s a blessing.” – Paolo Banchero, via Knuckleheads Podcast / Player Tribune

Paolo’s Historic Rookie Season

Paolo Banchero just put up one of the greatest rookie seasons in the history of the sport.

Perhaps his most impressive trait as a first-year player, Banchero burst out of the gates rating among the all-time greats at racking up foul calls as a rookie.

Unlike some high-volume whistle-drawers, Banchero collects free points at the pinstripe: Paolo shoots 74% from the free throw line.

Even though it’s the least entertaining aspect of the game to fans, free throws are still the most efficient shot around.

FT% serves as a relevant predictor for future scorers, revealing hard-working athletes willing to spend the time to develop touch talent into working ball-skills.

Banchero being the best in his class and already amongst the league leaders at racking up fouls while taking the free points at an efficient rate reveals Paolo’s foul-drawing to be one of the best bets of reliable scoring around the league going forward.

How does Banchero generate so many free throws as a rookie? Sharing similarities in the face-up attack with Zion Williamson, like unstoppable downhill drives with a head of steam, Bullyball Banchero makes light of the opposition, drawing fouls by staying light on his feet before gracefully exploding at any time.

As lead decision-makers, these primary playmakers take advantage of parallel processing skills to keep track of all the moving parts, proprioception to perceive the position and movement of their own body through space, and processing speed to evaluate the next best action to take.

Nothing rocks the house like a Paolo Power Slam.

Paolo finished the season ranked 19th all-time in Free Throw Volume among Rookies since 1959, tying Zion with 7.4 FTA per game.

Some of the most dominant scorers to ever play can be seen in this data visualization of high-volume rookie free throw takers, with Rick Barry, Michael Jordan, and Oscar Robertson leading the group in efficiency.

Video Visualizing Paolo Banchero’s standing among the Top-25 All-Time NBA Rookies in Free Throw Attempts Per Game Volume since 1958-59 with FT% Efficiency via interactive data visualization in Python.

Paolo quickly put up performances on par with any rookie before him.

Oct 13, 2022: Paolo Banchero signs sneaker deal with Jordan Brand

Oct 19, 2022: Paolo Banchero throws down JUMPMAN Poster Power Slam in the first official game of his NBA career

Making his jumpman contract official in game one, Banchero scored more points in his NBA debut (27 PTS) than any rookie since Allen Iverson twenty seven years ago. Only three No. 1 overall picks since 1969 have dropped 25+ PTS, 5+ REB, and 5+ AST in their NBA debut: LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Paolo Banchero

Paolo recorded two Career-Highs in his tenth career game with 33 PTS & 16 REB, joining LeBron as the only teenagers in NBA history to record a game with 30+ PTS & 15+ REB while becoming the first Magic Rookie since Shaquille O’Neal to record a game with 30+ PTS & 10+REB.

The very next game, Paolo became the fifth Teenager in NBA History to record consecutive 30-point games, joining LeBron, Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, and Devin Booker.

Paolo’s 20-PT Game Tracker:

1. Six straight 20-point games to start a career ties Grant Hill, Dominique Wilkins, and Oscar Robertson for the third-most of any player.
2. The last three players to score 20+ points in 15 of the first 20 games of their career: Michael Jordan, Zion Williamson, and Paolo Banchero
3. Finished first season with 40 20-point games, the same number as Rookie LeBron.

First 15 Games: Banchero became the fifth player in NBA history since 1950 to have 300+ PTS, 100+ REBS, & 50+ ASTS in his first 15 career games, joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bernard King, Sidney Wicks, and Oscar Robertson.

First 31 Games: Since the ABA-NBA merger, the only three Rookies to reach 600 points, 200 rebounds, and 120 assists through their first 31 games are Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Paolo Banchero, via @jkubatko of Basketball Reference.

First Season: Banchero is one of nine rookies ever to average 19.5 PPG – 6.5 RPG – 3.5 APG, joining Luka Doncic, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, Sidney Wicks, Elgin Baylor, and Blake Griffin.

Winning the NBA’s 2023 Rookie of the Year in a 98-2 landslide vote, Paolo Banchero became the third Orlando Magic player to win the award alongside Shaquille O’Neal and Mike Miller, who happens to now be Banchero’s agent.

Walking mismatches gain advantages for different reasons as players who can score on any position defender 1-5, no matter the size or speed of the man in front of them, who create scoring opportunities for themselves and teammates no matter who or what the defense throws at them.

Possessing taller height, soft touch, and sound footwork on the block creates an advantage for any player posting up.

Players who fly past defenders on the perimeter, accelerating without a screen and decelerating on a dime show an advantage in burst and body control; having the handles to find angles and dribble drive through defenses without turning over the rock reveals ball control.

Scorers who combine these advantage in faceup and backdown situations tend to be effective in ISO and Post-Ups, playtypes without a screen.

Playmakers with vision and a combination of these advantages may be more effective with the help of a screen running handoffs or operating Pick-and-Roll.

Timing for teammates and understanding the offense can help players measure up cuts from off-ball wing or backdoor baseline. Rim-rollers with soft hands and big bounce can create vertical advantages as lob threats.

Catch-and-shoot skills for players who can knock down a jumper from deep from a standstill, especially from the corners, tend to be efficient in Spot Up situations. Those shooters become even more effective in Spot Up when they put the ball on the floor off a pump-fake and dribble-drive against closeouts to keep the defense rotating.

Shooters with agility, conditioning, and the ablity to catch and shoot off the run create varying advantages off the ball running Off Screens like elevator/iverson/stagger sets through the paint, or into Handoffs around the arc, through any angle they need to create a split second opening needed to get a shot off before the defender can contest.

Stars who score on and off the ball, drive and kick when drawing help, and look to draw fouls through contact combine a multitude of these advantages into an all-around shooting profile, becoming scoring creators making decisions on a play-by-play basis who bend defenses first before reading and reacting second.

Could Paolo Banchero become a heliocentric scoring option, a LeBron or Luka type point-forward who runs the entire offense, with the ball in his hands every play and nearly every shot being the result of a decision made by the star player?

If Paolo scores at good efficiency with higher usage, that may be worth exploring. Generally speaking, though, championship teams are built with more balance in mind. Maximizing a player’s box score production is one thing, whereas creating a sustainable system that consistently creates good shots is another challenge entirely.

Finding ways to make life easier for the team’s best player is a primary goal. Flanking that player with other good decision-making connectors opens up the floor in a variety of ways. Instead of allowing defenses to overload the paint to stop one star from driving at the rim, a well-defined system forces that defense to worry about all the ways that star can beat them all at once.

Consider one of the only ways to slow down Steph Curry. Arguably the best on-ball scorer in the league, someone who perennially tops the league in ISO and P&R efficiency, Steph is magic with the rock in his hands. However, one critique in the all-time scorer discussions is that Steph can’t shoot over multiple defenders like a Kevin Durant; when Curry has the ball, trapping double teams can force the pass.

This strategy tends to happen when a player is so good, the defense’s only hope is to send a second defender at that player, leaving somebody wide open. The defense would rather guard 4 players with 3 defenders than play straight up against this star. This results in open shots for teammates, which is by definition good offense.

Why don’t the Warriors run the Harden Rockets offense, endless on-ball reps for the most efficient on-ball scorer in the league? Because Steve Kerr realizes the benefits of balance, keeping the entire team involved, and most importantly, building an entire system around the threat of Steph Curry rather than relying on the production of Steph Curry.

Consider On-Ball Steph as the ace up Coach Kerr’s playbook sleeve. Even though Curry is more than capable of running the offense every play, why ask Steph to create a good shot for the team 50+ times per game when the team can use Curry’s off-ball gravity to create a good shot for someone every possession without the tradeoff of overtasking the individual with decision-making fatigue?

By building an off-ball screening system of endless relocating handoffs, defenses not only have to worry about the ball, but now have to keep track of the greatest shooter’s whereabouts on the court at all times, living in perilous fear that a heartbreaking dagger could launch from deep at any moment.

The Warriors thrive on off-ball movement, handoffs, and screens; could Paolo emulate the Draymond role as a handoff short-roll playmaker surrounded by shooters, with the added benefit of Banchero threatening to drive, kick, or rise for the shot at any time?

Could an NBA offense rely entirely on the scoring creation play-by-play decision-making of Paolo Banchero? Probably.

Would that offense maximize the team’s chances of winning, or simply maximize the star player’s output in the box score?

Penciling himself in for the Finals before the season started for nearly a decade, LeBron is the one player who has been able to single-handedly will his team to the biggest stage over and over again, sometimes with little help. While LeBron’s Finals appearances essentially serve as the exception to the rule that ‘teams win championships’, even James needed multiple co-stars to finally get over the hump.

Those Cavs and Heat title teams relied on ISO turn-taking more than a system bigger than one player, yet that overwhelming firepower was enough to win multiple rings.

Could Banchero emulate a scorer combining elements in the face-up game between Zion, Melo, and LeBron as a bucket-getting driving force who needs no help to get buckets, draw fouls, and create looks for himself and opportunties to kick to others?

Banchero would need a sizable jump in impact to be anywhere near LeBron’s level, but Rookies who average 20 PPG and 7.4 FTA are rare, and like Zion before him, that superstar jump may arrive sooner than later.

Who are the ideal player types to surround Paolo with, ISO killers like Kyrie next to LeBron and Ingram next to Zion with 3pt shooters, or as many well-rounded good basketball playing connectors as possible?

Banchero’s scoring versatility as a pull-up threat, play-finishing downhill force, and all-around scoring creator big wing helps the team he’s on keep their play-calling options open.

The Magic should explore every avenue to constructing a sustainable offensive system.

Like most teams, Orlando’s most effective halfcourt sets relied on execution:

Paolo’s on-ball double-team gravity in ISO, faceups, and backdowns; P&R Ball-Handling precision from Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, and Cole Anthony; Jalen Suggs’ sneaky success in Handoffs and reliable Strong Screen chemistry in The Wagner-Carter Connection; Spot Up closeout-attacking efficiency from Gary Harris, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole, and the Wagner Bros; Post-Up mismatches for everyone from Bol Bol and Mo Wagner to Fultz and Paolo; all of Orlando’s frontcourt being strong play-finishers as the P&R Roll-Man.

Visualizing Scoring Efficiency by Playtype PPP for Orlando Magic rotation players, data via Synergy Sports:

Banchero’s proven one-on-one prowess from any spot on the floor serves as a legitimate offensive hub on its own. Due to high volume and dipping efficiency throughout the year, Banchero scored at an average rate in most playtypes.

Zooming out, the most impressive signs are Paolo’s scoring versatility and all-around shot profile: good Post-Up efficiency as a Rookie, dominance in energy playtypes Putbacks, Transition, and Cuts, and solid efficiency hovering between 0.85 and 0.9 PPP when running both ends of the P&R, ISO, Handoffs, and Spot Up plays.

While individually each rate is fairly average, being able to score reliably in multiple playtypes, being good at everything with the handle and feel to create shots for one’s self and others, creates a sum of its parts effect greater than any one play, an all-around walking mismatch who can defeat different matchups in different ways.

Watch Paolo Banchero drills four threes on the way to 22 PTS in one half against the Celtics, hitting jump shots on and off the dribble out of all sorts of sets: Horns, Horns Flare, DHO, P&R, ISO, and even a fan-favorite Melo-inspired Post-Up Turnaround Baseline Fadeaway

Fourth Quarter Franz

Another year, another sound season for Fundamental Franz Wagner in the blue and white pinstripes.

Wagner methodically breaks down defenses, penetrating the paint in pick-and-roll for snake-dribbling euro-stepping running hooks.

Franz does his damage attacking from every direction on the court, scoring effectively in playtypes involving strong strong screens from Wendell Carter Jr., usually starting from the corner of halfcourt for an Angle P&R with smooth finishing on drives and clean shooting from deep.

Banchero and Wagner give the Magic an advantage held by few teams: two 6’10” wing playmakers who penetrate the paint at will. If Paolo and Franz make up the decidedly untradeable core going forward, then a drive-and-kick offensive hub between the two tall scoring creators exists.

Wagner masterfully runs halfcourt offense with the help of a screen in Handoffs and Pick-and-Rolls, while Banchero self-creates his own advantages facing up defenders in ISOs and Post-Ups.

Wagner shows incredible timing, feel for teammates, and understanding of the game. Franz cuts with purpose, flies on fast breaks, and stays moving off the ball to create easy scoring opportunities for himself.

Averaging near 19 PPG with a solid shooting line of 49-36-84, Wagner maintained good efficiency with high volume.

Zooming out to total offense, Wagner averaged over 1.0 point per possession (1.03 PPP) on 17.8 offensive possessions per game, second in total volume behind Paolo’s 21.6 possessions while rating above league average in efficiency. (0.98)

Fourth Quarter Franz was The Closer countless times this season, ranking 5th in total 4th QTR Points in January before eventually slipping to 9th by the end of the season.

Highlighting Chef Wagner cooking up his Fourth Quarter Franz recipe in the clutch:

Orlando’s two team-first forwards didn’t take long to gel.

Against Toronto, the Magic’s tall tough shot-making duo combine for 57 points on 20/27 from the field scoring 87% TS%.

Wagner’s defense is strong, with good rotations, helping the Magic slow down opposing stars.

Against the Clippers in December, Orlando found success blitzing pick-and-roll, forcing 8 turnovers with the hectic trapping coverage.

The Magic’s defense held their own shutting down Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to a combined 7/27 FG. When guarded by Paolo, Franz, and Bol, the Clippers star duo had trouble getting a clean shot off: in these matchups: Kawhi shot 2/11 and George shot 3/9.

Franz closed the Clippers out with two FLOATAs in the final minute.

Wagner would close out the Clippers in the final minute again later in the season with a stepback three over Robert Covington.

Franz’ one-legged Dirk fadeaway became a go-to move for Wagner last year. While Franz hasn’t gone to the move as often later in the year, Wagner knows he can pull the leg-kick fade any time he creates an advantage with a quick deceleration near the rim.

Poetically, Fourth Quarter Franz closes out Luka’s Mavs with the patented driving leg-kick Franz Dirk Fade

In Indiana, Wagner did his best Luka impression on the left wing, knocking down 3 Pull-Up Triples, 2 Stepbacks, over 1 switching Myles Turner.

In Portland, Franz dropped 15 PTS in the final quarter to beat the Blazers with his patented running hooks, gliding reverse finger-rolls, a catch-and-shoot triple, and even hitting Dame with a his own medicine, the pull-up trey.

the theme of the season: no lead is safe against Orlando.

The Mosley Magic Don’t Quit.

The Redemption of Markelle Fultz

A broken back.

A pit of despair.

An impossible leap.

And yet, The Dark Knight Rises.

“Why do we fall? So that we can learn to pick ourselves up.”

A proven full-time starting point guard for the foreseeable future.

A shoulder-faking midrange assassin who adds funky flare to every move.

A table-setting pick-and-roll maestro who gets to any spot below the arc he wants, traps defenders on his hip with hostage dribbles, and stays looking for pull-up jump shots, kickouts to open shooters, and no-look lobs to the dunker spot.

Markelle Fultz is officially back, dropping dimes like rhymes on decelerating drives.

MF Doom leaves his adversaries in dismay.

Overcoming injury, reforming his body, escaping the pit he was trapped in.

Whether or not he is The Batman remains unclear.

The Rise of Markelle Middy is a feel-good story any basketball fan can get behind.

3 Markelle Fultz quotes from the Knuckleheads Podcast via Player Tribune with Quentin Richardson and Darius Miles

Fultz on perseverance to fight through injuries:

“I just really learned how to focus on the day and win the day, and the next thing you know it got closer and closer and closer. Again, I think my love for the game really kept me going. Because I never really got a chance to showcase what I really wanted to do and I’d be dammed if I let an injury keep me from doing that…

I love the support and everything, but I strive off the doubt and the hate, the people saying I can’t do it. And I also understand, I’m thankful for where I’m at, it could be way worse , and I also could not be playing right now. So like, I take the good, and I’m thankful for it, and I give all the glory to god, but I also understand I have so much room that I can grow.

That’s what keeps me going, cuz I really feel like there is no ceiling. I can get stronger, I’m doing what I’m doing now, I can still shoot better, there’s so much stuff that I can continue to do, and that’s what keeps me going. Because I still feel like, my IQ for the game is at a very high level, but I still can continue to make my teammates better, be a better defender, everything.”

Fultz on Paolo growing up as a fan of his Washington Huskies:

“It’s crazy. I think it’s dope, a unique experience.

Well for me, this is my second time playing with a #1 pick (Ben Simmons and Paolo) so like, I also understand what he’s going through in a sense. So I feel like, me being through what I’ve been through, I think he understands that he has somebody real, who’s also been a #1 pick, so I feel like he knows that I’m somebody he can talk to.

A real hooper, and also has the Seattle ties, makes it even better. Again, a real hooper right there, he’s gonna be something real special. He’s already something special, but as the game continues to slow down for him, I’m super excited; I’m honored that I had a chance to be able to be a point guard that can help him right now.“

Fultz on Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley’s impact on the team:

“I think the biggest thing with Mosley… he care about us as people.

It’s not just about hoop for him; don’t get me wrong, he cares about winning, he hates losing, but he more wants us to be great young men, especially for a team like us, we got a lot of young guys.

That always makes you feel better as a person, coming in knowing that a guy isn’t just worried about winning or just talking basketball all the time, he’s asking how you’re doing, he’s worried about how your family, doing stuff like that.

So like, I think that’s a big part about it, but he also has a good combination of getting on us, but like understanding we have a young team so making it fun, like it’s not all drill-drill-drill, it’s like a good combination of come in and get your work in, lock in for right now, and then you can go enjoy, do what you gotta do, but we gotta take care of business…

Understanding we got a coach that rocks with us, we got to protect him, we stress that a lot to our teammates.”

Coach Mosley gives players freedom to play, the only requirement: play hard.

Orlando started the season 5-16 without Fultz. Markelle returned to the lineup, and hasn’t missed a game since.

In 58 games with Fultz at the helm, The Magic posted a .500 record, the 7th-best Defense, and the 6th-best FT Rate on Offense.

Defining an offensive system around what already exists could be Orlando’s clearest path to success. Endless “paint and spray” drive-and-kick ball-movement allows everyone to feel involved, feel out the game, and feel motivated to give their all.

A fast, fun, watchable offense built inside-out from paint penetration, the team moves to the pace of their point.

The Magic are one of four teams with three players driving to the rack at least ten times per game, joining the Clippers, Pelicans, and Celtics. Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game.

The Showtime Magic run the break off forced turnovers and endlessly attack the rack behind the three-headed monster of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Markelle Fultz.

Visualizing Players averaging 10+ Drives per game while totaling over 80+ 3PT AST:

Highlighting Magic Markelle Moments this season

One of the biggest highlights of the season, Markelle Middy closing out the Celtics in Boston during the six-game win-streak that would turn out to be the longest of the season.

Markelle controls the pace, setting the table for teammates, looking for the best shot for his team.

Revenge Game Fultz dishes out seven dimes in a six minute span before half before Paolo, Suggs, and Mo Wagner spur a big comeback win in the second half in Philadelphia.

Markelle Middy shows off his two-way tenacity traveling to the West Coast.

Fultz times up FOUR quick steals in the first quarter against the Clippers, dropping 28 PTS, drawing 8 FT, and completing the highlight off Wendell’s big block on Westbrook with a coast-to-coast finger-roll

Fultz tallied a career-high SIX steals against the defending champs in Golden State while filling out the box score: 17-7-6-6

Fultz drills four midrange jumpers from the same shot zone in Phoenix, creates for teammates while pushing the pace, and keeps his hands active to force two turnovers on Devin Booker and Chris Paul.

While Fultz’s form is automatic in the midrange, his shot release on the three-point jumper looks like a different form. Fultz hypes up Magic fans late in the season with the cleanest-looking in-rhythm pull-up three of his Orlando Magic career in a monster third-quarter sequence in a Sunday afternoon game against Jaden Ivey’s Pistons.

Cole The Sparkplug

This roster is filled with flat-out hustlers, players coming off the bench ready to give their all every second on the floor.

Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield diving for loose balls, Jalen Suggs beating offenses to the point of attack, and Cole Anthony flying in to crash the boards or timing a Cut to the rim right as Fultz starts to bend the defense on a drive.

Cole Anthony may finally have found his ideal role as a third guard commanding second units and closing games with a hot hand, at least for now.

Ice Cole’s smooth floater, mean elbow middy pull-up, and flashy handles remain effective for creating shots Anthony is confident in making, especially against drop coverage. Even if those shots qualify as tough shots the defense generally wants the opponent to take, making those tough shots semi-consistently is worth exploring the hot hand theory any night.

Being able to operate high pick-and-roll offense between double drags and horns sets to create shots for everyone on the floor is a legitimate NBA skill, if not one of the most desired by front offices constructing an offense.

Cole has rapidly improved as a half-court decision maker, slowing down when he needs to create while never wasting effort on either end. Anthony stays a threat to pull-up at any moment or ignore the screen entirely and attack the rack by driving away from the action.

Once Fultz returned to the starting lineup, Cole was slotted in the sixth man role, proving to be an effective high-energy rotation player. Both point guards thrived in impact, with Anthony’s shooting through the roof in efficiency.

The regular rotation’s leading pull-up three-point threats by efficiency were Gary Harris (45% on 0.6 3PA) and Cole Anthony (39% on 1.0 3PA)

The regular rotation’s leading free throw shooters by efficiency were Gary Harris (90% FT% on 0.6 FTA) and Cole Anthony (89% FT% on 2.8 FTA)

While it’s not quite the Harden-CP3 Rockets playing a Hall of Fame point guard at all times, the depth of Fultz and Cole allows Orlando to always play a starting-caliber point guard capable of executing pick-and-rolls.

The Magic can rely on either point to control the pace and run half-court offense, making the game easier for all involved and balancing team roles by allowing play-finishing scorers to focus on putting the ball in the hoop.

Anthony showed promise in P&R action in the 2021-22 season, averaging the same scoring efficiency of 0.9 PPP as Rookie Franz, on higher volume.

Streaky scoring with reliable effort and good feel for running the offense is appreciated on second units and deserves a look at starting with night-to-night consistency. If efficiency stays level as volume increases, that rate should be tested to its limits.

Visualizing 2022-23 Orlando Magic players who can create shots for themselves and others, the floor-spacing scoring creators via Cerebro Sports data:

Good Ol’ Gary Harris

Sometimes lost in the fold in all the talks of the exciting young core is good ol’ Gary Harris, Orlando’s starting shooting guard for 72 games over the last two seasons.

Gary Harris has slid right into an ideal C&S play-finishing role, maximizing his efficiency as a three-point shooter and adding real two-way impact as a POA defender when on the floor.

While not quite the same scorer as his Denver peak, Harris has made huge jumps in efficiency across the board since his arrival in Orlando.

Gary posted 49% True Shooting percentage in his first twenty games after the trade to Orlando, rising all the way up to 57% TS% in Franz’ rookie season and 62% TS% in Paolo’s rookie season, with his USG% dropping from 20% to 16% to 12% in the process.

Harris 3PAr volume ballooned from 35% to 55% to 71% over that same time frame, with his 3P% efficiency climbing from 36% (3.3 3PA) to 38% (5 3PA) to 43% (4.5 3PA)

Nine Orlando Magic Players on the roster average over 2+ C&S 3PA when they play, all shooting at least 34%, led in 3P% by Gary Harris (43%) and Franz Wagner. (41%)

The outbreak of Franz, the arrival of Paolo, and the return of Fultz all contributed to fewer creation needs and more off-ball play-finishing looks for Harris, resulting in cleaner shot opportunities, higher efficiency, and more impact in a reduced on-ball role.

Providing a steady hand in point-of-attack defense, this savvy vet has proven over a long period of time to still be able to contribute to a starting lineup as a reliable two-way team-first 3&D role player doing the little things with little credit, making the right plays to help his team succeed.

Stealth Mode Suggs

A pick six a day keeps the defense at bay.

Lurking in the shadows before biting like a snake, Suggs surprises the opposition by beating the ball to the point the pass is supposed to arrive at.

A simple stagger screen gone wrong.

Jalen flies up from behind the action, snatches the ball before his man even sees it, going up for a layup on the other end before the defense knows what hit ‘em.

They underestimate his sneakiness.

Jalen Suggs is already one of the more versatile defensive guards in the league. Bringing lockdown effort and quick feet at point of attack, with strength on the block to lose no ground to bigs in the post, Suggs can already guard 1-4 at the highest level.

Stealth Mode Suggs, engaged.

A blur in transition, Jalen Suggs can take off like a rocket or launch the ball up the court quickly. The vision of a former quarterback has it’s perks on the open floor.

Jalen’s developed into a reliable scoring option in plays where he runs off screens.

Slowing down in the halfcourt, Suggs’ decision-making, rim-finishing, and quick-trigger jumper powers are growing stronger, averaging 1.1 PPP on Handoffs , 1.0 PPP Off Screens, and 0.9 PPP in P&R.

Never forget this four-threes first quarter in Brooklyn in 2021:

One of best early season moments: a game-winning spinning stepback three for Jalen Suggs in Chicago.

Jalen Suggs set a Career-High 26 PTS with clutch steals and pull-up jumper against the Splash Bros

Wendell The Rock

Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs held one of Orlando’s better net ratings, which adds up due to their execution off screens, reliable pindown handoff Chicago set, and the hard-earned chemistry of Wagner-Carter P&R Connections.

A hustling big who anchors both ends of the floor with high two-way feel for the game, sets strong well-timed screens, and hits C&S threes, Carter remains the rock of these lineups. Wendell brings all-around efficiency in energy plays, rolling and popping in pick-and-roll, spotting up from deep and posting up mismatches.

Wendell Carter led the team in overall impact this season according to Cerebro Sports (+7.0 C-RAM), slightly outpacing Franz and Paolo. (+6.7 C-RAM)

In 966 minutes with the starting frontcourt of Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner on the court together, the Orlando Magic have a +2.33 Net Rating.

Add Markelle Fultz to that mix of Wendell, Paolo, and Franz on the floor, and Orlando has a positive +1.76 Net Rating in 681 minutes.

Visualizing Orlando Magic players still on the roster with the most two-way impact as defenders and pure scorers in the 2022-23 season, via Cerebro Sports data:

New Bitazde Business

A late-season addition after being waived by Indiana, Goga Bitadze brought good energy, floor-spacing, and sound rim-rolls into post-up mismatches in his short stint in Orlando.

In 114 Minutes with Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Goga Bitadze on the floor, the Orlando Magic posted a +15.63 Net Rating. Usually joined by another starter, this unit impressed against second units once Goga entered the fold.

That 3-man chemistry will be handy going forward, with each player fighting for a starting spot, even if they’re comfortable filling their rotation role. A reliable bench unit could present itself with each player capable of filling in for a starter on the fly.

Visualizing 3-Man Lineup Combos for the Orlando Magic by Net Rating
(via NBA Stats; min. 100 MP)

The Boller Coaster

Few things excite Magic fans like a runaway Bol flying off the tracks.

When Bol Bol is on the loose, anything can happen.

Bol’s fast breaks were like psychedelic fever dreams, as the crowd collectively holds their breath to see if magic could happen one more time.

Sometimes Bol would glide coast-to-coast into a euro-step one-handed jam; other times, he’d fake a handoff and drive right into a post-up mismatch shoulder-faking turnaround baseline fadeaway.

To fans, The Good flashes highlights that resemble one of the greatest rim-protecting and tough shot-making prospects the basketball world has ever seen in Victor Wembanyama. To critics, The Bad reveals black hole level defensive worries on the perimeter, weakness guarding stronger bigs in the post, and a turnover-prone wildcard whose inconsistent decision-making may not be worth the excitement.

A free-roaming Bol is the best Bol, where a sturdy defensive frontcourt around him allows him to do what he does best as a help-side shot-blocking rim-protector with incredibly rare handle, touch, and skills for his height. Bol punishes mismatches in the post with tough shot-making, has a wet jumper from deep, and has the handles to create his own shot on a whim.

Concerns exist for any big being asked to switch on the perimeter, but the modern game demands versatility. Leading the league in 3PT BLKs when smaller guards dared to shoot over the switch, and using his length to effectively stop quicker wings in their tracks, Bol showed some improvement guarding on the wing this season.

Playing through mistakes hopefully creates lessons learned to develop decision-making, while being miscast in an overtasked role could dampen impact.

The Future

Role players like Mo Wagner, Chuma Okeke, and Caleb Houstan have shown reason for encouragement. Mo earns minutes with energy and closeout-attacking chemistry. Though he’s been squeezed out of the rotation due to the logjam of talent in the frontcourt, Chuma has flashed defensive wing versatility, shooting range, and connector ball-skills when available. Houstan has shown on more than one occasion he can be a legit C&S 3PT threat with active hands as a lengthy wing defender.

The defense is full of long, strong, smart, and mostly switchable defenders, who take pride in hustling, rotating, protecting.

Jonathan Isaac’s return lingers as a wide-ranging what-if. One of the most impactful, versatile defenders in the game when healthy, J.I. just can’t seem to stay on the court.

That won’t stop Magic fans from imagining how dynamic a Franz-Paolo-Isaac frontcourt could be in today’s spread NBA, or pondering a possible playoff matchup between Orlando’s young core of Suggs-Franz-Paolo-Isaac-Wendell-Fultz-Cole to Boston’s rotation of Smart-Brown-Tatum-RobWill-Horford-White-Brogdon, let alone daydreaming of what that might look like with another 1-2 lottery picks on the way.

Paolo even matches up well with fellow Duke star Jayson Tatum, showing he can contest Tatum’s jumper without fouling, contain him on drives, and make him work harder than he’d like for points, which is all one can be asked to do defending a superstar scorer like Tatum. Banchero holding his own on both ends with star big wings is huge for future playoff success.

With a 37% chance at a Top-4 pick, a 9% chance at winning the Wemby lottery outright, and over 91% odds of Chicago’s 11th-14th pick conveying, Orlando could very easily end up with another top talent in the draft, if not two.

Imagine this roster adding another explosive guard like Scoot Henderson, Amen or Ausar Thompson into the mix, or a floor-stretching tough shot-maker on the wing like Jett Howard or Gradey Dick.

Countless reasons exist for Magic fans to have hope.

The product on the floor is fun to watch every night.

The drives and kicks are strong; the pace of play is fast; the style of play is furious.

The young talent coming together, meshing, molding into one cohesive unit.

In the present, everyone in the gym is entertained.

For the future, fans are overloaded with optimism.

Win or lose, Mosley Magic teams don’t quit.

Ring the bell.

Data via PBP Stats, Cerebro Sports, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Statmuse

Words and Visualizations from @ BeyondTheRK on Twitter, YouTube, Substack

The post Appreciating Paolo Banchero’s Historic Rookie Year in The Most Exciting Orlando Magic Season Since Dwight appeared first on Swish Theory.

The top pick in the 2022 draft makes a trio of big players who can do a little dribbling, passing and shooting on the Magic, with Banchero, Wagner and Carter Jr. providing a unique frontcourt of the future. Banchero is the most traditional initiator of the trio, by virtue of his creativity with the ball in addition to dynamic athleticism. Paolo can nail the footwork on a stutter rip before accelerating into a midrange spin and finish or pull-up. While his shot polish needs some fine-tuning within that framework, the results have still been good for a creator of his size, most notably shooting 38% on deep twos in his only year at Duke with 80% of those makes unassisted.

The Magic have already cleaned up his form a bit to encourage a higher release, and a less bulky upper body has meant more quickness in preseason. Banchero has the benefit of having the talent and skill to always suggest the investment is worth it, and with that confidence the Magic can plot for many years of actions between Paolo and Franz. With a lot of combined ballhandling and passing talent across the roster, Orlando will need Banchero to move off the ball more than he did in college. Getting acclimated to the more versatile role could be an adjustment, but Paolo’s elite proprioception (awareness of body in space), creativity attacking in the halfcourt and quickness for strength will do him wonders in acclimating. Using his strong frame to set screens and making quick reads with the ball would as well, both of which he began to show in preseason.

The defensive side of the ball is where Banchero can improve the most, as he has a tendency to ball-watch both in college and in the NBA preseason. But his awareness of, put simply, how basketball works shines through from time to time here as well, with a nose for loose balls or making contests at the rim. The technique needs work, as does understanding an NBA defensive system after coasting at Duke, but the tools are there and not lacking.

Adjusting to the speed of the NBA can be challenging, and necessitates clueing in to the fine details of the sport. But an excess of skill and talent at age 20, particularly as a valued scorer and passer as a bruising forward, makes that easier. And once he gets his sea legs, Banchero could become the conductor of a very good offense, or at the least a very good second-side creator for one. Alongside Franz Wagner, the playmaking duo could be trouble sooner rather than later.

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