Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT

It has been a weird month for the young Warriors. Some have gotten their legs with the big club or in the G-League, one has fallen out of the rotation, and one was demoted to Santa Cruz. Yet all of these moves have come while Golden State has turned a corner, winning 7 of their last 11 games.

With that recent success in mind, let’s take a closer look at which players have been contributing and who has faded into the background for now.

Jordan Poole, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 22 games (4 starts), 20/2.5/6/1.1/0.4 per 75 poss, 54/31/84 splits, 24.3 AST%, 1.57 ATO, .263 FTR, .522 3PR, -3.4 BPM

Though the statistical indicators don’t indicate any massive changes, Poole has made strides on both ends of the floor. After a first month of struggling for offensive consistency with poor on/off-ball defense, he’s starting to look more like the player we saw last season.

Finding Offensive Footing

The biggest change to me has been Poole’s willingness to flex between a playmaker and scorer. His three highest assist totals have all come in November, as he has found a way to get teammates involved when his shot isn’t falling. In fact, he shot a combined 8/32 across those three games, a strong indicator of his willingness to take a backseat and create for others instead of forcing his shot.

Not only is he a willing playmaker (career-high assists per 75), but a very good one:

With a team so reliant on his secondary playmaking, with or without Steph Curry on the floor, this past month has been a fantastic development.

What we have yet to see are the electric offensive results, still largely a result of inconsistent night-to-night performances. He shot under 40% from the floor (28% from deep) over the past month, results not at all indicative of his scoring talent or improved process.

Part of this lack of rhythm is likely due to his role. In four starts when Klay Thompson rests, Jordan averages a crisp 28 PPG on 63/36/92 shooting splits. He’s cleared 20 points in each of those contests while taking between 18 and 21 shots. He’s cleared 20 points only twice in 18 bench appearances.

Despite these struggles, I think the past month has been a big turn for his overall confidence. He’s driving with a purpose, to get to the rim or make plays for others. Per nba.com, his percentage of points in the paint has risen from 24% in October to 36% in November. He’s taking his opportunities to get out in transition to attack unsettled defenses:

In the halfcourt, he’s been patient in seeking his chances to attack mismatches and sloppy closeouts instead of forcing his drives against well-matched defenders:

Though the aforementioned 28% mark from deep is concerning, it hasn’t changed his level of confidence. Poole knows what caliber of shooter he is, and isn’t letting tough results get in the way of good process:

If Jordan can keep up this level of playmaking and rim pressure, the consistency will follow along with more made threes. I very much doubt he’ll have the same efficiency results in December if he maintains the play we saw in the past month.

Making Defensive Strides

Effort has been the key to a change in his defensive impact. Though still very much a negative defender, especially off the ball, he’s showing a lot more engagement when pressed into action.

His opponents are scoring less in the paint against him, from 30.6 to 27.5 PPG. He’s also managed to increase his defensive rebounding and block percentages from October to November. In fact, his block rate increased threefold and ended up higher than both Steph Curry and Donte DiVincenzo in that respect.

Not only do the stats show his increased hustle, but the film backs it up:

He’s even providing more credible off-ball help than we have ever seen out of him:

That’s not to say everything has been on the up and up. The rough closeouts and off-ball lapses are constants and have to be cleaned up to further tighten up a point-of-attack group that has disappointed to date.

Considering my tag for last month’s check-in was “show us something on defense”, I’d say he accomplished just that.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Again, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro for an established player like Poole. A reshuffling of the bench for added spacing has worked well for him, and the defensive improvements are certainly there. For the next month, let’s see if he can string together a few strong offensive games in a row while continuing his on-ball defensive development. Some further signs of off-ball awareness would be welcome as well.

James Wiseman, Big

2022/23 NBA Stats: 11 games (0 starts), 17.9/10/2.6/0.2/1.0 per 75 poss, 59/0/65 splits, .451 FTR, 15.9 TRB%, 2.5 BLK%, 1.38 ATO, -2.7 BPM

2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games (5 starts), 20.8/13.3/0.8/0.6/1.7 per 36 mins, 63/29/46 splits, .200 FTR, 19.4 TRB%, 4.0 BLK%, 0.27 ATO, -8 Net Rating

After 11 games, a disastrous bench performance, and a 4-7 team record, the Warriors finally made the decision to demote James Wiseman to the Santa Cruz Warriors. And by all accounts, it’s been a good move for both the player and the team.

Though some prominent Golden State media have aggressively attributed the team’s turnaround in record to Wiseman’s demotion, there is certainly some truth to that. The trickle-down effect of his removal from the roster has been very apparent. More minutes for JaMychal Green and Jonathan Kuminga at the 5 and 4 spots, respectively, has improved both the defensive quality of the bench unit and the overall spacing afforded to their perimeter creators and cutters.

But beyond the impact on team success, what has changed for James Wiseman since his demotion?

A Low-Stakes Offensive Playground

As previously mentioned in the first timeline check-in, Wiseman’s offensive role with the big club was highly compartmentalized relative to his skill set. He was strictly used as a roller and cutter, with limited use as a floor spacer, post-up threat, or handoff hub. Now that he’s away from the pressure and expectations, he’s being allowed to play more like the rookie season version of himself.

For starters, he demands more offensive usage with the Sea Dubs. His usage rate has risen from 20% with GSW to 23% with SCW, in line with the 23.8% usage rate he posted during his rookie season. The increased offensive freedom has also been apparent on the stat sheet, as he’s taken 7 threes in 5 Sea Dubs games. He took none in 11 games with the City Dubs. Wiseman has also gotten up 2.7 more shots per 36 minutes, a positive sign of increased aggression.

This has resulted in some flashes of confidence we haven’t been able to see in some time.

From a developmental standpoint, letting him take jumpers can only be viewed as a good thing. He should be trying all kinds of shots to see what works for him, even if it’s just simple pick-and-pops.

What concerns me the most is the difference in Santa Cruz’s quality of offensive play when he’s on the floor compared to Trevion Williams, the other Sea Dub center. Trevion is a quality mover and sublime passer, one who can operate on the perimeter with his ability to take mismatches off the dribble. The ability to go 4-out or 5-out consistently improves the flow of the whole offense. Wiseman largely sticks himself in the paint looking for post-up chances, which clogs their movement as a help defender is constantly sitting in the lane.

For now, let’s hope Wiseman keeps up the aggression and can further smooth out his skills while adding a bit more perimeter potential. Reps, reps, and more reps are the key.

Still Struggling Defensively

Unfortunately, moving down a level in competition hasn’t improved Wiseman’s defensive impact.

Not only is he continuing to struggle in space, but he’s been very jumpy around the rim. He has a tendency to hunt for blocks instead of contesting shots and letting his length do the work, and it often results in biting on pump fakes:

Wiseman is allowing a 65% conversion rate on twos, not the kind of figure you want to see from such a physically imposing presence. Staying glued to the ground instead of springing to meet shots at the apex would do wonders for that number. He can afford to sacrifice a few blocked shots to get a higher rate of shot contests.

But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the flashes. This defensive possession on Kyle Lowry early in the month showed what he can be when engaged and working hard, even on the perimeter:

Signs of increased communication are there as well. As the backline defender, being able to call out coverages and actions would be a huge asset to the team that won’t show up in the box score.

There haven’t been many drastic changes on this end, but hopefully, over the next month, we can see some further development.

Keep An Eye On…

Last month, I said I wanted to see improvements in catching the ball and playing a more flexible form of drop coverage. Neither of those boxes has been checked, and only more questions are being asked.

I’d still like to see developments in both of those areas as Wiseman gets acclimated to the Santa Cruz environment over the coming months. In addition, continuing his offensive aggression is important. He needs to take advantage of his time in the G by trying as many things as he can, seeing what works, and hopefully applying those reps to his future call-up. It also wouldn’t hurt to knock down that 65% opponent FG% in the paint.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

2022/23 Stats: 18 games (2 starts), 13.1/6.6/1.9/0.8/1.3 per 75 poss, 54/25/75 splits, .391 3PR, .261 FTR, 10.4 TRB%, 3.2 BLK%, 0.63 ATO, -5.9 BPM

Last month, I compared Kuminga to the Cousin Greg of this Warriors’ prospect group: on the outside looking in, yearning for an opportunity. Now he’s gone full Tom Wambsgans, unexpectedly jumping to the forefront when you least expect it. It has truly been a banner month for Joku’s development.

In games where the team wasn’t resting their starters, Kuminga only managed to clear 10 minutes played in four of thirteen games before rotational changes arrived. Yet over the past four, he’s cleared that threshold every game, showing the increased confidence Steve Kerr has placed in him. So what has Kuminga done to earn his newfound spot?

Carving an Offensive Niche

Cutting, cutting, and more cutting. This is the primary reason for Kuminga’s newfound offensive success.

Though he’s only credited with 1.1 PPP on cuts (per Synergy), the process has been fantastic to watch. Largely stationed in the corners during halfcourt sets, he takes his chances well to cut off drives or short rolls to capitalize on a distracted defense. This has been a boon for his overall rim finishing numbers, sitting at 71% at the moment.

He’s also showing some increased confidence in his jumper. 4/12 on corner threes isn’t setting the world on fire, but there are some signs that he could show enough to force closeouts. That’s where his real value comes into play.

Kuminga has a unique ability to never truly be properly matched up when driving. He’s too big for guards to handle, too quick for bigs, and too strong for the average wing. We’ve seen that theoretical ability materialize itself in a big way over the past month:

Not only is he driving, but doing so with purpose. He’s creating scoring chances for himself or kicking to put the defense in rotation, cutting down on his habit of driving without a quick decision in mind. Considering the Warriors only have two true defense collapsers (definitely a word, don’t Google it) on the roster, adding a third threat to the mix could add a new element of danger to what is already a very good offense.

This isn’t to say everything has been perfect. He still turns the ball over at a high rate, struggling with his handle and on the catch. But he’s shown all the necessary signs this coaching staff has wanted to see, resulting in his newfound trust. He’ll be allowed to play through his mistakes to show the exponential growth we saw last year when he gets consistent playing time. Who knows how productive he might be on that end by the time January rolls around?

Playing With Defensive Purpose

What has really jumped off the page is Kuminga’s commitment to being an impact rotation defender. Over his last five, Kuminga has racked up 1.4 blocks per game in only 22 minutes per. Not only are the statistical results showing, but the tape shows a different level of activity and timing than we’re used to:

Since Wiseman’s demotion, Kuminga has spent more time at his natural power forward position. It’s been a boon for him offensively, but places more defensive responsibility on his shoulders when thrown into a help role. He’s rising to meet that challenge in a big way.

This increased time at the 4 hasn’t diminished his impact as a wing/point-of-attack defender. In his last game against Dallas, Kuminga was the only Warriors defender who could really bother Luka Dončić. That’s really saying a lot considering Andrew Wiggins‘ All-Defense-caliber presence. His physicality and mobility have always been present, but he’s starting to catch up from a technical perspective:

This kind of versatile defensive impact both on and off the ball is a huge addition to a team starving for defensive playmakers. If he can sustain this level of play on that end, it would change a lot of things for this Golden State team in the short term, let alone what it means for Kuminga’s future potential.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Well, time to toot my own horn a little bit. Here’s what I listed as potential points of growth for Kuminga in the month of November:

Cutting? Check. Impact rotations? Check. Did that lead to a consistent role? You bet.

Now the challenge is on Kuminga to build upon his success. I’d love to see him take some steps as an on-ball scorer, both from the perimeter and on his drives. On the defensive end, we’ve seen Kuminga be an impact rebounder over the past couple of games. If he can continue to work hard boxing out and using his silly second jumps to clean up defensive possessions, he can assist a squad currently ranked 22nd in total rebounding. I’ll be watching very closely to see what he does in December.

Let’s hope my predictive powers for Kuminga can keep up as well.

Moses Moody, Wing

2022/23 Stats: 18 games (1 start), 11.7/4.4/1.4/0.9/0.7 per 75 poss, 52/33/82 splits, .648 3PR, .310 FTR, 3.9 stock %, 0.53 ATO, -4.6 BPM

Speaking of predictive powers, I certainly did not hit the mark when it came to Moody over the past month.

While Kuminga has seen his quality in play and overall playing time increase, Moody has moved in the opposite direction. Over Golden State’s first 10 games, Moody failed to clear 10 minutes played only once. Since then, he’s only cleared that threshold twice: once in a blowout against the Spurs (with Klay Thompson resting), and again when the starting unit rested against the Pelicans. He’s also racked up four DNPs in that same timeframe, clearly falling out of coach Kerr’s favor.

With the lack of a recent sample size, I don’t have much to add to Moody’s developmental process beyond my recent piece written on his specific struggles, which you can read here.

With the problems clearly delineated and the new rotation working, the impetus will be on Moody to show positive flashes whenever he can get himself off the pine. Even in blowout scenarios with limited minutes, Moses has to show growth. Luckily, there have been signs recently:

Hopefully, over the next month, we’ll get some further chances to see Moody get significant playing time. With four back-to-backs on the docket for the next month, including two on the road, he will certainly have some opportunities. That should give us more data to work off, but for now, we stay in wait-and-see mode.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

2022/23 NBA Stats: 4 games played (0 starts), 24 total minutes played

2022/23 G-League Stats: 5 games played, 12.6/8.2/2.4/1.4/0.3 per 75 poss, 63/29/100 splits, .659 3PR, .021 FTR, 0.69 ATO

Now we move into the purely developmental group. Though PBJ has been able to grab more garbage time minutes with the big club, the real work is going on down in Santa Cruz.

Letting It Fly

Baldwin Jr. is letting 7.2 threes loose per 75 possessions, and though the 29% mark is less than ideal, he’s too strong of a shooter to not increase that number. Shooting has been his calling card since his days as a top-ranked high school recruit, and it’s great to see his confidence hasn’t waned over a difficult past year. His crazy high release and solid movement skills project as a great off-ball fit in their offensive system, which translates with the big club as well:

As long as he’s with the Sea Dubs, or when he gets his garbage time minutes, he should be letting that thing sing. As he gets his legs under him after a mostly lost one-and-done college season, getting up as many shots as possible.

Getting the rest of his offense to flow from that shooting gravity is important to round out his game. Finishing 63% of his twos to begin the year with Santa Cruz is a great start, and he has showed some signs of a potentially good closeout attacker:

Though nobody would confuse him for a primary playmaker, there have been some positive signs. Our man on the ground in Santa Cruz, @GSWReddit, points out that PBJ has managed to play within the flow of the offense. He keeps the wheels greased, but still finds opportunities to make plays for others in a connective role. There have even been some solid pick-and-roll reps:

Baldwin Jr. is building the profile of a quality connective, off-ball wing in a motion offense. As his health and confidence continue to build, expect results to match his process in the coming months as the reps start to pile up.

Is There Defense Here?

As a player likely profiled in a helping role, hidden off the ball, PBJ’s job is to secure the glass and get active with his rotations. As evidenced by his 7.2 rebounds per 75, he’s able to use that 6’10” frame to his advantage and be a quality glass cleaner. He doesn’t quite have the physicality to be an impact boxout man, but long reach can make up for that in many instances.

A little more stock (steal + block) production would be nice to see, but as his mobility increases with time I expect those to follow. He still struggles in space on switches against shiftier wings or guards. But he wasn’t a player taken for his defense, so he just has to focus on staying within himself, working on positioning, and continuing to pitch in on the glass.

Keep An Eye Out For…

It’s pretty clear that barring catastrophic injury issues, the majority of Baldwin Jr.’s playing time will be coming with the Sea Dubs this season. Given the construction of the current big club, it’s not an indictment of Baldwin Jr. that he’s not playing with them. If anything, it points to their confidence in Santa Cruz coach Seth Cooper and his coaching staff (including Steve Kerr’s son, whose name I am hesitant to type) putting him in a position to step into a role when called upon.

I’d love to see more defensive flashes on his part, using those arms to disrupt passing lanes and affecting shots. He should continue to let it fly offensively, and the shots will begin to fall. Ideally, some increased playmaking responsibility starts to come his way, and he finds a way to get to the line more than the one free throw he generated in his first five G-League games.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 NBA Stats: 7 games played (0 starts), 43 total minutes played

2022/23 G-League Stats: 6 games played, 24.8/3.5/3.5/0.7/0.5 per 75 poss, 55/31/59 splits, 18.8 AST%, 0.73 ATO, .385 3PR, .187 FTR, -10.7 Net Rating

Another developmental future Warrior, Rollins has been a ball of pure energy when playing with the Sea Dubs. He might be a contender within the organization to challenge Jordan Poole for the “eating ridiculous shit while going at full speed” crown. His offensive aggression and overall energy would be welcome additions to the big club roster if he’s able to clean up some facets of his game, but for now, he’s biding his time.

A Constant Downhill Threat

Through his first six games, 43% of Rollins’ offense off of field goals has come in the paint. He’s a constant force attacking the rim, largely looking for his own shot but capable of making plays for others as well:

He’s been the dominant scorer on this Sea Dubs team when on the floor, not afraid to get into the teeth of the defense and use physicality and a solid finishing package to generate offense. His willingness to take a hit to generate offense shows a player without fear:

He’s shown some pretty solid handle and craft to boot, and though it can be a bit chaotic (4.9 turnovers per 75), it’s perfectly fine considering where he is in his developmental cycle. The more he works on his playmaking reps, the further he can clean up those turnover numbers while the assists continue to rise. Rollins has also shown a willingness to push the pace in transition, using his burst and fast-paced handling to take advantage of unsettled defenses:

Though his role as a primary scorer with Santa Cruz has diminished his chances to show connective passing, he’s made some reads with the big club that stood out to me:

This is the kind of cut with the intent to kick out you would normally see from Draymond Green or Kevon Looney, but in this case, it’s Rollins making the read. Though he bobbles on the catch, you can see the intent from the young rookie.

Defense: Some Assembly Required

As much as the offensive flashes have been incredibly encouraging from RR, the defense has not been inspiring. But why take it from me when you can take it from the Michelangelo of Warriors film work, Joe Viray?

Much like Patrick Baldwin Jr., Rollins wasn’t drafted for his defensive prowess, but this rate of dying on screens and allowing dribble penetration is unsustainable. No amount of offensive production will get the Warriors’ coaching staff to overlook this.

If he’s able to clean some of this up to become at least a competent defender, it bodes very well for his future with the big club. His ridiculous +7 wingspan and athleticism point to potential defensive impact down the road and he could very well be an impact defender with repetition and hard work. Until then, he’s destined to ride the pine.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Any signs of defensive life.

With the offensive trajectory Rollins is on and his priors with Toledo, we know he can score the ball. Sure, it would be great to see more perimeter shots fall and fewer turnovers, but he can certainly make an impact on that end. The real question is, can that outweigh his subpar defensive game?

Over the next month when I check in on the Sea Dubs, I’ll be watching his perimeter defense like a hawk. General awareness, effort, or some quality lock-and-trails would be fantastic to see. Hopefully, if he can clean up the technical aspects, his physical tools will lead to a positive overall impact down the line.

Looking Forward

As previously mentioned, the Warriors have four upcoming back-to-backs this month. This is a great opportunity to see some of the end-of-the-rotation pieces in action. Fingers crossed that the development from Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga stays on an upward trajectory because this could be an even more ringing endorsement of the young core a month from now. Until then, keep your eyes peeled.

The post Two Timelines, Part II: Kuminga Up, Wiseman & Moody Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT

Two timelines. It’s a topic you see often across Warriors media, especially on Twitter. After a championship run that carried four rookie-scale contracts on the roster, Golden State has upped the stakes, with almost half of their roster still on their first deal.

We know it can work. The veterans know what they are. But who amongst the young guys can step up? Who will get chances, and who will capitalize on those chances? For those that have already taken on bigger roles, how can they further build on that success?

Without any further pontificating, let’s check in on all the Warriors’ rookie-scale players, starting with their future star.

Jordan Poole, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 8 games (1 start), 19.8/2/6/1.7/0.2 per 75 poss, 58/32/80 splits, 25.3% AST, 1.74 ATO, .288 FTR, .538 3PR, -2.8 BPM

It’s no secret how much faith the Warriors have placed in Jordan Poole. His newly-minted extension confirms he is the future playmaking force for this team, a lead guard to take up the mantle once Steph can no longer wear the crown. Preparing for that role also fills the immediate need for a playmaker/initiator for the bench unit, but results have been mixed to begin the season.

Poole had exposure to that role last year down the stretch after Klay Thompson’s return, especially in the playoffs. He maintained his dynamism with those bench units. That lack of drop-off is both a testament to his skill and to how good that Warriors bench was this past season, especially from a spacing perspective.

That combined shooting from the forward group last year (36.7% combined on 5.5 attempts per game between Nemanja Bjelica and Otto Porter Jr.) helped clear the paint for the twitchy young guard to get downhill. So far, only JaMychal Green has provided any real spacing. Jonathan Kuminga has only attempted 4 threes in 8 games, and James Wiseman hasn’t taken any. Donte DiVincenzo and Moses Moody have done little to alleviate these concerns.

Take a look at this play here, and note the positioning of Denver’s defenders on the initial drive. No respect is given to the shooters (and why should it be?), creating an overly saturated paint for Poole to try and navigate. Yet he still finds a window, because he’s that good.

The issue of a lack of shooters compounds because Poole is the best off-ball shooter AND on-ball playmaker this bench has, and for obvious reasons cannot do both at once. Though things will surely even out as the season progresses, Poole has been taking an atypical amount of midrange shots relative to his past three seasons, as a result of both the bench’s need for self-creation and inability to get clean paint touches.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing because he is such a prolific shotmaker, but Golden State should be working to find a healthier balance in his shot diet.

You can see what the balance should be like when he gets minutes with the starters, and he’s able to flex on/off the ball from possession to possession instead of being relied upon for constant playmaking.

Defense: Show Us Something

There’s no sugarcoating this: Poole has been bad defensively. He can keep attention when on the ball and has some athletic tools, but is one of the worst off-ball defenders around the perimeter. He’s constantly in the middle of blown switches and communication while losing his man with all too much frequency. It simply has to be better for the bench defense to improve.

The physical tools are there. Now the mental side has to catch up.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Compared to the rest of the players on this list going forwards, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro. There’s no questioning his future stardom, but there is a question about the degree. For the next month, keep an eye on the bench spacing around Jordan, and how defenses situate themselves on his drives. On the defensive end, watch his communication on switches and off-ball activity, as both must improve sooner than later.

James Wiseman, Big

2022/23 Stats: 8 games (0 starts), 20.6/9.7/1.9/0/1.3 per 75 poss, 61/0/63 splits, 0.432 FTR, 15.3% TRB, 1.0 ATO, -3.9 BPM

Perhaps no player on this list has had more to glean from in these first few games. It’s apparent on almost every possession that Wiseman is looking healthy and spry. With every passing game, it becomes clearer that injuries severely hampered his on-court production when he was in the lineup.

What is also apparent is the clear compartmentalization of his offensive role. When playing his rookie season, we saw few (if any) games where the Warriors had a complete and deep roster capable of winning. A lack of internal competition and win/loss expectations gave him free rein to try things out. This season’s squad is trying to defend a title and can’t afford to give him that liberty anymore.

Wiseman is living around the rim offensively, and the results have been fun. His roll-man frequency has doubled from his rookie season, and though more numbers will need to be collected before it’s a definite trend, it’s clear that playing with more adept playmakers has been a major boon for his offensive efficiency.

There are also some signs of trusting him as a designed playmaker. Though results have been mixed so far, it is a hint towards the plan this team has for James.

It’s also been nice to see aggressive and technically sound screening from Wiseman due to his increased confidence and health. If that persists, he could find himself in the middle of plenty of DHO looks and “get” actions to make use of the size and positioning. However, there are still plenty of things to clean up before he can become a reliable DHO hub, and that will require lots of reps, something the Warriors are not able to consistently give him.

Ultimately, Wiseman’s offensive improvement has flown under the radar so far this year, as the Warriors have made good use of his size and rolling ability. But that’s not the end of the floor that is cause for concern.

Defense Remains Strict

How the Warriors view Wiseman as a defender hasn’t changed much. Everything they do is done to keep Wiseman away from the perimeter where he’s an easy target. You can see how deliberately Wiseman runs back in the paint to avoid getting cross-matched and stuck outside on almost every transition possession. Though he has been good at keeping himself out of trouble in transition, it’s the half-court struggles that have become a major concern.

Being stuck in a deep drop is feasible with solid point-of-attack defense and help from the forwards, and it’s certainly not James’ fault that those two areas have been lacking. In fact, both Wiseman and JaMychal Green are in the bottom six in terms of two-point percentage allowed among bigs.

Ideally, your drop big is allowing floaters instead of layups. Defenses will take that shot every time instead of a pull-up three. Yet Wiseman has allowed over 1.3 PPP on floaters this year, in part because the depth of the drop makes those shots too easy. When those shots go up, Wise usually has two feet planted in the restricted area and doesn’t have the short-coil explosion to contest a shot 5-6 feet from the rim. If he could play a tad higher to push those shots to 8-9 feet, while keeping track of the rim behind him, that would go a long way toward improving his defensive efficacy.

But even when planted at the rim, he hasn’t been a strong enough deterrent. He has a hard time choosing when to go vertical and when to really contest, and opponents are simply not intimidated by him. The issue was most apparent against Detroit this past Sunday when 6’8″ Isaiah Stewart took the 7’2″ Wiseman to work in the post in an incredibly disrespectful way:

If he can’t switch out to the perimeter, and he can’t really affect shots without fouling (6.2 fouls per 75), the other bench Warriors are going to be picking up the slack all season. It’ll be a major point for other teams to attack come playoff time, which would almost entirely take him off the floor. Unless measurable strides are made, the defensive concerns alone will write him out of the playoff rotation. Not an ideal scenario for a 2nd overall pick in his third year.

Keep An Eye Out For…

The main thing I’ll be focusing on is the defensive end. How deep is his drop? Can he deter more rim attempts and push those floaters back another foot or two? Can he rotate without fouling? There are really too many questions to be asked at the moment. I’d consider it progress if we see more clarity in either direction: if he can improve on those responsibilities, great; if not, what do we do now?

Unless he goes back to taking jumpers, the offense should be relatively consistent going forwards. After a strong start catching the ball, there have been a few fumbles over the past week. Let’s see how Wiseman does on the catch over the next month, which is where 99% of his offense should be derived from.

Jonathan Kuminga, Forward

2022/23 Stats: 6 games (0 starts), 8.6/6/1.5/0.5/0.5 per 75 poss, 46/0/100 splits, .267 3PR, .400 FTR, 9.4 reb%, 0.42 ATO, -12.0 BPM

If the Warriors’ core youths were the Roys from HBO’s Succession, Kuminga is the Cousin Greg of the group at the moment. He’s on the outside looking in, trying to get an opportunity while working on his game. But instead of Comfry he’s after, it’s playing time.

Despite the exit of Otto Porter Jr., Kuminga’s minutes have dropped from last season. He started off as the backup 3 before a lack of spacing and defensive issues forced him to the end of the rotation, while Moses Moody has gradually taken those minutes. A lack of half-court efficiency has really handicapped his playing time, as the offense hasn’t outweighed the inconsistent defense. However, he is still a dynamo in transition.

The half-court struggles are tough to ignore. JoKu has yet to find any sort of consistency as a spacer, roller, or cutter. Without a reliable trick in his bag, defenses can largely ignore him when he’s not playing in the dunker spot, which is usually occupied by Wiseman. It’s fair to wonder if some of those problems could be alleviated by him playing the 4 or 5 more consistently, but he needs to show more capability as a screener and roller first.

However, I have been encouraged by his improvements in playmaking and court awareness. He’s made some nice reads on the fly instead of from rigid structure, a good sign that the sophomore is starting to develop a feel for the game and chemistry with his teammates.

How Does the Defense Look?

Much like his young compatriots, Kuminga has struggled with off-ball communication and attentiveness, another key reason for his dip in playing time. But when engaged (especially on the ball), he can really produce results.

He’s got a package of length, athleticism, and reaction speed that makes him tough to shake. We all know how twitchy Kelly Oubre Jr. is, and Kuminga stays with him pace-for-pace on the above possession.

The overall improvement in body control has been my favorite development thus far. He’s not playing like a train going off the tracks as much, staying within himself while flying around at full speed:

It has also been a boon on the offensive end of the floor. Shots like the one you see below were lucky to catch rim last year, let alone tickle the twine:

Kuminga still has plenty of work to do on both ends of the floor in the macro, but there has been positive development from a microskills standpoint. It would be nice to see him improving in leaps and bounds like he did last year, but it’s unfair overall to say his play has regressed this year. The pressure on him defensively has been ramped up, and he hasn’t quite hit the mark.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Trust from the coaching staff. Not much more to it.

If he’s not playing consistently, there isn’t much to see. But when he’s out there, watch how he operates offensively in the half court. If he can be an active cutter and used more often as a roller, that would go a long way towards boosting those minutes. On the defensive end, track how he works off the ball. Does he keep his eyes and feet moving? Can he make impact rotations?

If some of these questions can be answered, he might find himself with a more consistent role before the month is out.

Moses Moody, Wing

2022/23 Stats: 8 games (0 starts), 13.5/4.5/1/1/1.2 per 75 poss, 46/37/75 splits, .698 3PR, .186 FTR, 4.7 stock%, 0.36 ATO, -4.6 BPM

Of all young Warriors not named Jordan Poole, Moses Moody is unquestionably the most ready-made NBA player of the bunch. And Steve Kerr is starting to take note.

As previously mentioned, Jonathan Kuminga’s role as the backup 3 has slowly been ceded to Moses. His consistency as a defender and floor spacer brings immense value to a second unit struggling for both. Most importantly, he stays ready. You know when he steps on the floor he will be engaged, communicative, and giving maximum effort.

To understand how he brings value on the defensive end of the floor, watch this thread on his game against the Phoenix Suns:

On the ball, he is dynamic. When tasked with paint responsibilities as a sinker or filler, he can make life tough inside for bigs trying to mismatch or shooters trying to relocate for open shots. That kind of versatility on the floor plugs a lot of holes and is a large reason why his playing time is on the rise. He’s prone to mistakes like any other rookie-scale wing, but they are fewer and further between than you would expect for a 20-year-old.

And, as always, the footwork shines on both ends. No surprise at all for a Montverde product.

Finding an Offensive Niche

On the offensive end of the floor, everything trickles down from the perimeter shot. And unlike Reaganomics, it actually works. His .66 3PR places him pretty squarely in the shoot-first wing category, but he’s starting to expand his diet of perimeter shots. He’s taking deeper attempts off the catch, further stretching his range and forcing tougher closeouts.

Footwork and balance skills are also coming into play as a movement shooter. This really opens up the amount of motion off-ball actions he can be involved in. You can picture him flying off pindowns and using that high release point to get all kinds of looks off, regardless of how contested.

It’s still early to be thinking about the end of the season, but the line of demarcation on the roster has been pretty clear: when an 8-man playoff rotation forms, it’ll be the starters plus Poole, DiVincenzo, and JaMychal Green. If I had to bet on a player outside that 8 to make it a 9 (or just outright take a spot), it would be Moses. He’s ready for whatever Golden State throws his way.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Moody’s playing time when Donte DiVincenzo returns to the lineup will be interesting to monitor. Does he start eating into some of those minutes as the second guard off the bench, or remain an outright 3 when the bench unit plays? Could he potentially become first in line for starts when Klay has to be rested in order to keep Poole’s offense with the bench?

In terms of on-court things to watch, how Moody attacks closeouts could be a short-term area of improvement. He’s strong and has a solid handle on his drives, but has yet to find a true rhythm as a finisher. He does have some finishing tricks in his bad, but it has to be something beyond wrong-footed/handed finishes to deter shot contests. Going up with the body and finishing strong is something he is very capable of. If he starts to mix in some quality kickouts and pocket passes against a tilted defense, he could do more than just keep the wheels greased on the offensive end.

Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward

2022/23 Stats: 1 game (0 starts), 1 total minute played

Well, there’s only so much you can say about a guy who has only played one minute.

The positive showings in the preseason have not carried over into regular-season minutes, but that’s not really a surprise to anyone. This team has a lot of mouths to feed, and someone had to get the squeeze. Without knowing how PBJ is looking in practice, it’s impossible to speculate what he can do to get himself on the floor beyond waiting patiently for a chance.

The good thing is he’s not unavailable because of his health. After a rocky college season hampered by lower-body injuries, Baldwin Jr. looked fluid on both ends of the floor during the preseason. He looked ready-made as an off-ball relocator and had no qualms with pulling the trigger. At nearly 6’10”, almost every look is clean for him.

But that’s really all we have right now: preseason flashes. Until he gets a larger body of work under his belt, his potential role is theoretical in nature.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Minutes. Anything really.

If PBJ checks into a non-blowout without any significant injuries factoring in, it’s a strong indication that Pat is putting in the work behind the scenes. What’s more likely is he continues to mix in during out-of-reach games or on nights where the forward depth has been depleted.

If/when he does get some run, I’ll mostly be monitoring how he moves. If he looks healthy, confidence will follow. A confident shooter at that size could do a lot for this team. And if he can find a way to not get played off the floor defensively, who knows? Golden State clearly went into this year viewing anything they get from Baldwin Jr. as a bonus, and that stays the case for now.

Ryan Rollins, Guard

2022/23 Stats: 3 games (0 starts), 4 total minutes played

At last, we come to the other forgotten rookie in the rotation. The only true backup point guard on the roster, Rollins finds himself buried behind a cadre of strong guard options who can play the 1 in a pinch. Thus you have the 4 minutes played after 7 games.

Much like his rookie counterpart, PBJ, Rollins was overcoming foot/ankle troubles coming into camp and missed Summer League as a result. But when he got himself on the floor in preseason, there was a lot to like:

He’s shown flashes of on-ball dynamism, capable of a wide array of shots from the perimeter when he gets it going. Rollins took a few spot-up looks off the ball as well, as the Warriors are likely trying to get him to flex on/off ball to better fit the offense.

It remains to be seen if any of this can translate in the short term. He’ll be waiting in the wings to see what opportunities arise, but the Warriors certainly did not construct this roster expecting to lean on him in any way.

Keep An Eye Out For…

Minutes. Same as Patrick Baldwin Jr.

Steph Curry will miss games. That much is a given. It’s likely at some point over the next month he will be rested, and that should open up a chance for Rollins to run the bench for a dozen or so minutes on those nights.

If he does, I’ll be watching how much time he spends on the ball vs. off it. He can create for himself and others when he has the rock, but without it will define what kind of role he can carve out. The defensive activity is worth checking in on as well. Whether or not he can make an impact at the point-of-attack could open up more potential minutes behind Poole and Donte.

But ultimately, anything we see from him is a bonus. If Rollins is suddenly thrust into major playing time, it likely spells bad news for the Dubs in more ways than one.

Looking Forward

The Dubs have 15 games on deck for November, including three back-to-backs. This could be a prime month for the young guys to get a little looser as they see more minutes, with veteran rest all but guaranteed for some of those games.

I’ll be keeping frequent tabs on all of these guys to monitor their progress before we check back in at the beginning of December. Until then, enjoy what you see out there. These are exciting and unprecedented times for Golden State.

The post Two Timelines: Checking In On the Golden State Warriors’ Talent appeared first on Swish Theory.